Market Crash: DOW under 8000, NASDAQ under 1,400
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 11/19/2008 - 1:01pm (386 comments)
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We're in the money! Lots and lots of money!
I blame the pig.
First? because it was there.
Nemo?
It'll be at two decihassetts by Friday at this rate.
first
death
Urk.
oink!
First
Sweet!
C dead
pig first
damn i need to get the alert program, this manual approach is way to slow
Christos, that was nasty. Was that all because of C, or because of GM, F. Or was it the trifecta.
So much for the PPT
First has lost it's meaning!! Oh, the horror, the horror
"They bought their tickets; they knew what they were getting into! I say, let 'em crash!" -- Airplane
citizen energyecon: Do the options expire tomorrow?
NEMO???
Those damn naked short sellers must be at it again!
But McCain told me teh fundy mentals of the economy were strong!
CR used the "C" word.
Come on now. That's not a crash.
A month of PPT work wasted.
Oh SHI-
/sardonic on
This is simply the market adjusting to zero.
Okay -- so, for the "Monkey Chases The Dragon Triangle" folks who play the stock market with a protractor, is this "enough" to break the support at 8200?
Get out the noise makers and party hats.
DOW 7K party time!
it's not even a Wal-Mart Christmas anymore
Christmas is cancelled
It's hard to do. Nemo.
Gotta check with the mouse to know for sure. Where is the mouse?
Byzatine_Ruins,
I expect a few more surges before that crowd is led to the financial gallows.
Maria had a scared look in her eyes...
WORST president EVER!!
Dios Mio!!!! What happened?
...........
mp said something to the effect of "kiss 8,000 goodbye" this morning
I thought he was talking about over the course of this week or longer.
It only took 4 hours!
......
since Obama is elected and stock markets crashing...doesn't that make the stock market racist?
Which is worse, the Dow crash or watching the Detroit Three fly private jets to Washington to bow and scrape for public funds?
WTF
Crash on my intarwebs???
TD Ameritrade is not updating with MOC info - what has the Dow been doing post 4pm?
Looking at the chart immediately before this post, it looks as though we are at the same point as the 74 and 02 craseds except we got here a lot sooner. Six months sooner than the 74 and a year and a half sooner than the 02 crash.
This makes me think we have further to fall as this time around the multiple factors are conspiring to make a bad recession worse, much worse.
If the CDS are sucking up all the liquidity and the government is bailing everyone out, when will it end? I don't see this ending pretty for sure.
What does the panel think?
I'm not sure why it ever bounced up off 8,000 in the first place.
Today was a turning point. There may be a few peaks, but for the most part the acceleration downward begins.
the mouse cautioned, "WWW today"
(opex next Thursday?).
Bob Brinker said to buy at S&P 1400
Socialized health care for the U.S. Little Three is the best way to make the manufacturing sector competitive with much of the world.
Cordially,
Kilgore Trout
Oh noez, it's angry Maria!
The TARP was a TRAP. Classic bait and switch.
When will CONgress learn. Wall street doesn't share.
If the CDS are sucking up all the liquidity and the government is bailing everyone out, when will it end? I don't see this ending pretty for sure.
What does the panel think?
We're Fucked!
Is there any possibility that BushCo will retire to Paraguay early?
Beginning to think my parents' long-time financial advisor from MER/BAC was right about seeing Dow 5k when this is all over. He's saved them plenty of money these past few years.
crispy&cole writes:
Bob Brinker said to buy at S&P 1400
Perhaps he meant DOW 1400.
Crash is an improper way to describe this. Yes, it's very bad, but this sensational use of the word doesn't ring true with the analytical nature of this blog. I am disappointed, CR.
guys. 400 points is no crash! i think before it's over we'll be at 6k on the dow and 500 on the s&p. Then, we'll go up and down for a while. maybe 1-2 years.
If the CorporateEarnings/GDP resets fully from its recent all-time high (13%) to the other end of its historical range (6%?), even at a constant P/E and GDP we end up with over a 50% drop in market value. And of course P/E and GDP are both falling now. At earnings/GDP of 6%, P/E of 10 and a 20% decline in GDP, we'd have an 80% drop in the SP500 (S&P at about 315). And the numbers all have uncertainty ranges...
I posted some commentary
on this back on 10/28 at my forum...
But again, I think we go up in here somewhere, before we go down (if we go down that far).
kisses to the bottom callers
It looks like the CMBS market is starting to come unhinged, and today's shellacking of financials was based on perceived exposure to CMBS. C is near the top of that list. This is probably a delayed reaction to TARP not being used to buy mortgage securities. Although I have been buying some stocks lately, I still wouldn't touch almost all financials with a barge pole, or any company with an outsized financial arm, or even a debt/equity ratio above 1 for that matter.
Said to the Big3 execs "And too all of you who have corporate jets, raise your hands if you will be getting rid of them?"...crickets chirping....
Well, the DOW is still up compared to 11 years ago. Who was it that said that there have been no ten year periods with a negative return in the stock market?
We haven't crashed yet.
More like a car going over a cliff, but we are still not sure where the ground is.
Imagine the financial ruin experienced by the dopes that listened to David Lereah and Abbey Joseph Cohen.
Good Grief!
Socialized health care for the U.S. Little Three is the best way to make the manufacturing sector competitive with much of the world.
Yeah, that works great for the U.K.
You need to understand that health care is a huge economic sector and has a lot more high value export potential (pharma, procedures, health care tourism) than manufacturing. We need more health care competition and innovation.
400 points might not be a crash but 40% in 4 months is a crash where I come from.....
........
randy,
Unfortunately, the actual "economic" crisis has just begun. Consumers have only now really started tightening up. Up until now, disbelief has reigned.
Anonymous,
In one day's 1929 style timeframe, 400 points aint much. Given the past fifty-two weeks, I'd say most definitely we're in a crash.
Note to the House and the Senate: If you don't pass the TARP, the stock market will tank.
Wait, what week is this again?
Comrade Scared Shitless writes:
We haven't crashed yet.
More like a car going over a cliff, but we are still not sure where the ground is.
The fall don't hurt
It's when you land!
No rebound in the closing minutes...does this suggest the selling will continue into tomorrow?
girlbear writes:
Said to the Big3 execs "And too all of you who have corporate jets, raise your hands if you will be getting rid of them?"...crickets chirping....
I liked the (D) Rep from New York, who said to them..."I had visions of you walking off your private jets with cups in hand. Like men in topcoats & hats in line at a soup kitchen.
Because I think CR knows more than he is letting on. This is a crash, in that it will be defined later, today it is a signpost.
S&P is in full crash mode! Dow is 30 worthless stocks with "General" in their name!
Goldmans estimate will be optimistic in 3 months. No doubt in my mind.
Chill Bear, Reformed Dope:"Consumers have only now really started tightening up."
Concur. That, and rising employment tells me that we are only just getting started.
Those damn naked short sellers must be at it again!
this brings up a good point. how many of us can remember what can be shorted and what can't be shorted? and what can be naked shorted and what is super duper not to be naked shorted?
part of the problem is that the govt changed the rules too much, so now none of us believe in them.
Is anybody positioning themselves for the counter trend rally here. I was dipping my toe into SSO late in the day, in at about 22.50. Nothing goes down straight forever, we could see a monster bounce....just where will that be??
Call me crazy, but I decided today was a good day to move a wee portion of my money from my TIPS fund into a S&P 500 index fund. Then again, I have a 20+ year time horizon.
Fear of falling
girlbear --> was that quote true? ouch!
........
CR thanks for putting this tread up. i dont mind bantering on this one.
......
RE: CDS
Someone (Mish at Globaleconomicanalysis) sez that Paulson won't give a damn cent to big three, as JPM, GS & CITI are on the rihght side of CDS, this time.
Then yiff in hell big 3!
They will continue to tell us that this is a rollercoaster, and after this big drop, the track will rise, and we'll be saved from crashing into the ground.
But all I see below me is a coaster track that's not completed.
Bush was right about one thing
This sucka is going down
Look out below for tomorrow
Dow 7000 here we come.
Maybe the chimp will hop on AF1 to the paraguay ranch and never show his stupid face again.
Here's to all the great folks who gave Obama their vote for thinking he'll deliver an economic land of milk and honey!
We haven't crashed yet.
More like a car going over a cliff, but we are still not sure where the ground is.
Is this the Thelma and Louise moment for the equity markets? Stay tuned - we'll find out by the end of the day tomorrow.
More forced liquidations on the way. The vicious cycle is gaining momentum.
What's that Denis Kneale guy doing nowadays? He's not still on CNBC is he?
ova: Pony TimeSharing writes:
Because I think CR knows more than he is letting on. This is a crash, in that it will be defined later, today it is a signpost.
At the signpost up ahead....your next stop, The Twilight Zone.
If you want to counter-trend on a quick bounce:
BGU Large Cap Bull 3X Shares Russell 1000
TNA Small Cap Bull 3X Shares Russell 2000
FAS Financial Bull 3X Shares Russell 1000 Financial Services
Watch your step!
So does Asia follow suit?
USD/JPY 95.85
Nikkei futures 7800-ish
Treasury yields looking mighty de-scary
ades;
Yes, none of them raised their hands...dopes
radio-active half-life dead cat bounce dance....
CRVIX on the rise. Can we break 1000?
Joe writes:
What's that Denis Kneale guy doing nowadays? He's not still on CNBC is he?
He has a permanent anchor spot on Power Lunch every day.
I'm afraid to imagine where'd the DJIA and SPX would be without the $700B TARP.
Basel Too --
Are the financials still a noticeable fraction of the S&P?
Time to buy despair?
Permanent anchor ppot? My God.
Basel Too: Don't forget that the DOW and S&P have several times over the past few months replaced "losers" with better stocks....both would be much lower at the moment without those changes...
So does Asia follow suit?
USD/JPY 95.85
Nikkei futures 7800-ish
Treasury yields looking mighty de-scary
Yeah, it's time. The TARP is dead until January. The executive branch is rudderless. The Big 3 are SOL. The consumer is on his knees.
Asia's biggest customer just left the building.
ew star trek trailer:
Star Trek trailers and video clips on Yahoo! Movies
I'm going long fava beans and Sanka...
I did a very minor league investigation into Nissan last night. In doing it I had a minor epinany.
Think meteor into one of the Great Lakes.
Anonymous writes:
Here's to all the great folks who gave Obama their vote for thinking he'll deliver an economic land of milk and honey!
Here's to idiots like yourself who think the president-elect is responsible for this crash.
Bush was right about one thing
This sucka is going down
Look out below for tomorrow
Dow 7000 here we come.
Maybe the chimp will hop on AF1 to the paraguay ranch and never show his stupid face again.
Worst President ever
Hoover will be seen as a genius compared to the chimp
Is anybody positioning themselves for the counter trend rally here
I stopped trading a while back. but if I were trading I would jump in midway through tomorrow.
ride it up for a few % then sell.
but only with play money, because the markets are betting and nothing more.
geesh: Haloscan is screwy today.
Yes, none of them raised their hands...dopes
girlbear
What a bunch of jackasses... You'd think they'd be pretty good at lying now a days.... Come on Naradildo just put your hand up for comedies sake....
TO: FULDA
FROM: COVERT UK BASE 12
British military reduced to disorganized
cavalry units due to lack of operable motor vehicles.
Two months of EMP attacks has decimated most
conventional air and ground defense capabilities.
Expect light resistance.
AER/12
sorry, forgot to include the sardonic tag.
How about a chart of 1929-1932 for comparison? The good news? SDS up.
Interesting fact I discovered and successfully traded for a profit today: the market has been down every single Wednesday since early September.
Stocked up on DIA puts Tuesday night right before the bell. Sold them a little early today, but that's ok.
Waiting for a bear market rally, then back in next Tuesday night perhaps
Anyone seen PCA? He was going in for a short term bounce?
Oddly, I'm still not hearing Helicopter Ben's airforce. M0 jumped up some over the last month, but largely that just compensates for almost no growth over the previous year. The expansion of the Fed balance sheet still seems mostly sterilized. It's odd that somebody whose rhetoric is so aggressive (he's almost promised hyperinflation for such circumstances) is fairly conservative when it's actually happening.
Detroit Three had a meltdown in DC today.
"Ford CEO Mulally's corporate jet is a perk included for both he and his wife as part of his employment contract along with a $28 million salary last year. Mulally actually lives in Seattle, not Detroit. The company jet takes him home and back on weekends. "
Big Three CEOs Flew Private Jets to Plead for Public Funds - ABC News
Whatever happened to Sebastian?
Wow, 880 visitors seeking comfort and explanations. Damn Jas would be on vacation.
CRVIX is way up. Where is the link for the historical?
Somebody Upthread Said: We need more health care competition and innovation.
We also need to cut in half (or more)the percent of every dollar going to health insurance admin costs.
Otherwise, we're still at a big disadvantage to other countries.
This is an orderly unwind of untenable positions. There have been notably few market interventions and it doesn't even look likely that the uptick rule will come back. Isn't anybody old enough to remember past crashes where brokers were being threatened for supposedly not opening their mail and more recently when retail electronic trades didn't execute? Until we start detaining hedgies at the international gate we aren't even is crisis never mind disaster. For everyone complaining about the pain of a crash I can only ask them to think seriously of the true consequences of not letting it crash.
citizen energyecon: Do the options expire tomorrow?
mykillk | Homepage | 11.19.08 - 4:14 pm
Friday. Of course I could be wrong
But again, I think we go up in here somewhere, before we go down (if we go down that far).
Comrade Wisdom Seeker | Homepage | 11.19.08 - 4:21 pm
If you're a wave theorist, you'll agree with Mish (by now, someone has to) that we're in a wolf wave five of three up
I have no idea what this means, but I have read about and tried to understand it, and I would tend to agree with you. Up to the point of not going down that far. If those theorists (pesky fiolk) are correct we could see a dramatic fall to the oft predicted 6500.
I just happen to believe, in my unschooled way, that there will be stopping points along the way--i.e. 7,500, 6,500 etc more or less.
But I'll stick to my best guess (and oh what a guess it it is) of one ounce of gold will buy the DJIA to be the real bottom. And the way these bastards are setting us up, that could be in the range of 1450, give or take a standard deviation.
Bob is a smart guy. I've done some work for him. He has only made 3-4 market timing calls within the past 20 years and they've all been right on until now.
He completely blew this market call. And he knows it, I think.
Boris Badenov yelling orders while Natasha Fatale paddles, "stroke, stroke, bail, bail". And fearless Leader obliviously sits in sinking row boat reading My Pet Goat
Lastest internet rumor- BAC will walkway from merger...
Mulally actually lives in Seattle, not Detroit. The company jet takes him home and back on weekends.
Amazing. I did not know that. SAMs were made for situations like this.
Start the presses big time. Give bailouts to all by monetizing the debt. The psychology must change to the belief that things will be more expensive in the future, not cheaper. So lets signal that we will begin printing to end this deflation. This is the only remaining choice.
Lastest internet rumor- BAC will walkway from merger...
Which one? MER or CFC?
Didn't Mulally come from Boeing?
rich - Bob said to buy the QQQ's in Early 2000...bad call
Bob said to buy anytime the S&P is below 1400...bad call.
He called of this mess, just a minor subprime problem last year...bad call
Several people called him in Spring 2007 and said the housing market was going to crash, he said they were wrong...bad call
He has been wrong a lot
ytl-
Whatever happened to "super-duper bonds"?
Remember that idea?
Big Gay Al running the bond desk is not a pretty site.
Ciai
MS
Yeah, it was a disaster on Capitol Hill. They did lots of damage to their brand and their cause. I predict all 3 CEOs will be gone in six months.
@Fair Economist: "fairly conservative when it's actually happening."
Wishful thinking: Because the Federal Reserve finally understands that there were excesses in the system that have to be purged?
CSS,
At the signpost up ahead....your next stop, The Twilight Zone.
Actually, I think you had it right earlier in this thread.....your next stop, You're F****d!
c&c-
"there is a massive buying opp. in the Q's very soon"-PCA
That was when the Q's were a tad above 29.
I hope, for his sake, it wasn't massive.
Ciao
MS
Paulson is Captain Wrongway Peachfuzz
and Bernanke is Bullwinkle
We are in need of Rocket J. Squirrel
Bob's market timer advice is no better than the advice you get from guys like Sebastia
crispy&cole writes:
Lastest internet rumor- BAC will walkway from merger...
That would mean admitting everyone here at CR was right when we told them CFC had a negative acquisition value even after govt supports. Never.
Negotiating tactic to get more uncle sugar and loosen the promises to CFC interested parties.
Whatever happened to "super-duper bonds"? Remember that idea?
Big Gay Al running the bond desk is not a pretty site.
ROFL!
well, big gay Al would do a better job than Hanky (Paulson) the Christmas Poo!
HEEEY! Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat!
BAC is backing out of MER? Come ON!
Go Fulda!
Kill the ones that eat us and eat the ones we kill. Then we will march on a road of bones to victory.
We're finally starting to see some popular outrage against Bailout Nation.
Perez Hilton: Auto Industry CEOs = HYPOCRITES!
Revisionist history.
9/11 was Clinton's fault.
Economic Depression is Obama's fault.
King george was perfect.
Oddly, I'm still not hearing Helicopter Ben's airforce
I think he's wise enough not to print. That would end the dollar regime forever. It might even start a war with Asia.
BAC has been good to its word up to this point. I dont think it is backing away from anything.
I am only posting what I am seeing on other sites...
So it begins. Every US Attorney is going for blood soon. Soon being March or April.
By Karen Gullo and David Scheer
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. prosecutors and the Securities and Exchange Commission opened an investigation into whether Wachovia Corp. misled borrowers or investors, San Francisco U.S. Attorney Joseph Russoniello said.
Prosecutors are examining whether Golden West Financial, which Wachovia acquired in 2006, fraudulently lured borrowers into mortgages, such as by switching them into more expensive loans or falsifying financial information so they could qualify, Russoniello said. His office and SEC investigators in San Francisco are also scrutinizing whether the banks misled investors about the quality of Golden West's loans, he said.
If BAC isn't backing out, what is taking the merger so long?? Wasn't it announced over a month ago?
Latest internet rumor- BAC will walkway from merger...
Which merger? CFC or MER?
Yeah, it was a disaster on Capitol Hill. They did lots of damage to their brand and their cause
I watched about an hour of it. All I saw were three "good old boys" with... ahem... less than average intelligence.
Perhaps I am wrong but I was a little shocked that they didn't even know their own sales were abnormally high for the past few years, as pointed out by that economist counterpoint guy.
Wow.
Yeah, I saw a Congress which was pretty leery about giving money to Detroit. And perhaps with good reason.
Currently Accounting writes:
Yeah, it was a disaster on Capitol Hill. They did lots of damage to their brand and their cause. I predict all 3 CEOs will be gone in six months.
Not without their bonuses and golden parachutes though.
I'm sure they'll also get new highly paying jobs for their fine accomplishments.
i>® writes:
BAC has been good to its word up to this point./i>
Let me go out on a limb here and predict you are not now nor ever have been a retail customer of the infamous Bank of America.
rich writes:
Bob is a smart guy. I've done some work for him. He has only made 3-4 market timing calls within the past 20 years and they've all been right on until now.
He completely blew this market call. And he knows it, I think
You betcha Bob knows it. He's broke
CFC is already BAC property already..
dawg-
I think that was the intention of the CFC and MER deal the entire time. Get it out of the system for a period of time and then "walk away......just walk away" like Mad Max or something.
Especially Mozilla's cespool of debt.
Imagine if we actually had that spread over the top of the rest of this....
IMO
Ciao
MS
Blodgett on BAC/MER
Mer
Yeah, I saw a Congress which was pretty leery about giving money to Detroit. And perhaps with good reason.
Broward Horne
Have no fear, they will. They huff and they puff, and then they hand out money.
Perhaps Harry Reid will send them a sternly worded letter.
Wake me up at S&P 700 and Nasdaq 1200.
Subprime Explained - Juan Eduardo Alvear's pages
BAC has even backed CFC's debt.
Ken Lewis has yet to back away from anything and has done exactly what he said he would do at any point in time. He is a straight shooter.
rich:"Bob {Brinker} is a smart guy...He completely blew this market call. And he knows it, I think."
His models didn't take into account that people were using borrowed money that they couldn't afford to pay back to "fuel" his timing variables.
The sad part is that many of us told him of the problem, through 2006 and 2007, but he kept calling us "Casandras". It looks like both Polyanna and Goldilocks got jumped and mugged by Casandra and The Bears when he wasn't looking.
® writes:
BAC has even backed CFC's debt.
Ken Lewis has yet to back away from anything and has done exactly what he said he would do at any point in time. He is a straight shooter.
® | 11.19.08 - 4:44 pm | #
Ken is that you?
speed:
thanks for the Arrested Development clip.
best TV show ever made.
"That would mean admitting everyone here at CR was right when we told them CFC had a negative acquisition value"
I kept my 09 CFC puts after the merger so I could extend the short to BAC. Good call so far ...
BAC has not backed CFC debt..they gave the one finger salute to the bondholder's a few months ago.
Ciao
MS
The Russian won today.
A year and a half ago when I posited the question "at what point does Citi have a solvency issue?" that moment is about here. A big chunk of their tier 1 capital was based on their share price. As a single digit midget, that ration has to be approaching "not adequately reserved".
I got lucky that I bailed on my Jan BAC calls, hanging on to a 80% gain for the same on JPM(but there's time for that to get worse) But it between now and January 20 it may be time to go long BAC & JPM again. Divy yield for BAC is almost 10%; worth a flutter if one is truly looking very long term.
Target's shares are ``extremely undervalued,'' Ackman said.
Asked why Pershing Square doesn't buy more shares in the retailer instead of pushing to form a REIT, he said, ``we're not pigs. We don't need to force this to happen. We think this is something the company's receptive to.''
The two parties have been in talks about creating a REIT since May, he said.
Pension and endowment funds have shown ``strong interest'' in the proposed REIT, Ackman said.
Ackman Says Target REIT IPO Would Raise $5.1 Billion (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
I thought the Big Three heads did a good job. Except Nardelli, that dude's scared.
This is what I have been speculating to happen. My opinion last week was that the markets will go down more for sometime before they jump back up. Falling tides drop all boats, remember that saying? Most of the companies will drop or keep dropping as we have been seeing. Lets just hope it ends sooner than later. I suggest any of you interested on insight regarding the economy in general or the gold and oil & gas industry, should take a look at this blog: http://www.stockresearchportalblog.com/
Hope that helps, Good luck to all
That sucker is going down...all the way to 6K
DJIA Dow Jones Industrial Average
Wishful thinking: Because the Federal Reserve finally understands that there were excesses in the system that have to be purged?
IMO no; if so they wouldn't be trying to push interest rates so incredibly low. Working so hard to avoid inflation suggests they're trying to protect everybody from losses, including currency holders.
The dollar is way up, the 3-month is at 0.06%, GDP is falling fast - you don't get much stronger "print now" signals than this.
CRVIX index link, anyone?
Reuters: Ford unveils revamped Mustang for 2010
...significant improvements in the interior, adding a soft instrument panel, improving the fit and finish of materials, and adding advanced electronics options."
Morons. Same thing, but more cool. Upper management must be graduates of the Peter Principle School of Incompetence.
The mustang is STILL the same fossil fueled combustible engine my great great grand-daddy drove that I drive too.
CRVIX is way up. Where is the link for the historical?
Bottom Dweller
Visitors Online
C&C
Don't you have to yell "Down go Frazier" a couple more times like a 5 year old child or find another baseless internet rumor to post?
Mustard seeds, mustard seeds, where are those gosh darned mustard seeds?
you are not now nor ever have been a retail customer of the infamous Bank of America
Ditto. I have a big black mark on my credit from these lying sacks of crap but I absolutely refuse to pay them for their own deliberate screwups which are designed to milk MORE money from me.
lol, buy one Dodge truck, get the second one free! Wasn't Yugo the last to do that?
Buy one Dodge Ram get the second free!
Eric Holder = AG 2008 = US Court of Appeals, DC = 2012 or maybe Supreme Court.
The man has made his rep on white collar corruption trials.
I think he's wise enough not to print. That would end the dollar regime forever. It might even start a war with Asia.
Angry Saver | 11.19.08 - 4:40 pm
Well.... Speaking as a historian, not an economist, this statement begs some questions:
1) Why would China (or anyone else0 engineer armed conflict?
2) How would any power bring their forces to bear?
3) Explain how armed conflict would serve anyone's best interests?
Thanks PutItOnMyTab. Yikes! Hasn't been this high since September. I'd say its a leading indicator
"Ford unveils revamped Mustang for 2010"
They need to re-issue the 1965 Mustang with upgraded interior/motor/AC and admit that their designs peaked 40 years ago.
You guys kill me.
I go to In-n-Out for lunch and look what happens. Dow closes under 8 and the A&P, er S&P almost cracks under 8.
What did you guys do?
Nice work.
Of course the CNBC cheerleaders will still say we are waaaaaaaaaaaaaay oversold.
Buy now or be priced out forever.
Where have I heard that before?
MS,
Bank of America assumes Countrywide debt - Business First of Buffalo:
BofA assumes 16.6 billion in CFC debt this month.
The Dow is only down if let the facts mess with your mind. In my mind it is still at 14,000 and house prices only go up!
sorry to break this to ya but the fed has been printing for about two year's via the repo. process.
Taking in crap assets that are allowed to be marked up at ANY level and then handing out the equivalent in cash is covertly printing money. If said asset really had the same value they wouldn't need to exchange it at Uncle Benny's pawn shop now would they?
Asking if they are printing is not the issue....it's at what velocity that you should be asking about.
Ciao
MS
Higher cost oil development is being shelved, and unlikely to restart in the medium term.
The page cannot be found
Some growing whiplash potential out there
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I think that Rick Santelli on CNBC said something about the 10 year bond rate looking more attractive. Right after that, the SHTF.
Perhaps this is punishment for millions of Americans demonizing auto-workers over the past two weeks.
You could insert "fat greedy American passive investor" into all the invective coming out of CNBC analysts mouths (and one arrogant bow-tied academic last night).
Paraphrasing; "How's it feel, huh, you thought it could go on forever with your 20% returns, banks loaning people money so they could buy your mutual fund shares, thought you could retire at 55 and live on your fat 401K for the next 20 years with free health care. Just who do you people think you are? I went to business school after all and I've made a killing in this market. It is possible if you give up your childish assumptions about how the world works. I'm living proof."
That's exactly the logic the American public has been throwing at the auto workers.
Happy schadefraude Joe401K.
Pension and endowment funds have shown ``strong interest'' in the proposed REIT, Ackman said.
If that is true, we wouldn't be hearing about it. They're grasping at straws.
David needs a padded cell...and to be severely medicated.
MS, repos aren't cash because they have to go back regularly.
Ned Flanders (ex G.s.) writes:
A month of PPT work wasted.
Oh SHI-
Ned Flanders (ex G.s.) | 11.19.08 - 4:15 pm | #
Forget that Ned, how about the $2 Trillion plus that has been handed out like crack coacaine?
We're all looking for the next bubble. But given the general negative consensus out there, I think its much more likely that were going to see an "anti-bubble" form- Irrational pessimism leading to general acceptance of prices far BELOW historical standards. Folks will look at some product or industry and explain how youll never make money doing that any more. Things are different now.
My leading candidate for where the anti-bubble will form is financials. Not saying that there isnt plenty more imploding to do, or that Im going to invest now. But I think once the smoke from the comet hit starts to clear, whatever financial institutions that still around are going to do much better than anyone will be expecting.
®(Unrated) writes:
Don't you have to yell "Down go Frazier" a couple more times like a 5 year old child or find another baseless internet rumor to post?
It IS the Straight Shooter himself!
"Perhaps this is punishment for millions of Americans demonizing auto-workers over the past two weeks. "
Millions of Americans are dealing with crap cars and predatory auto mechanics, there is a lot of build up resentment.
Hey Prince Al-Waleed ! Pleased to make your acquaintance, sir. Hope you enjoy my warm embrace.
CRFan - well said!!!
They still have yet to take it.....
Notice the first sentence. "it will"
No way in hell that is all of it....not a chance.
I can file all the documents I want doesn't mean anything until it becomes part of BAC.
Until they officially acquire it they still have not made any of it whole.
And that is the bigger question...what they do, in fact, do with it.
I wouldn't hold my breath waiting to be made whole and certainly wouldn't assume it will happen until it actually does.
Remember BAC bought $2b in shares when it was at $18.......
Ciao
MS
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.19.08 - 4:51 pm |
Not just the oilsands, every major oil company (and all the rest of them as well) is currently rerunning their annual budgeting and business planning exercise...many projects going on hold or away.
Financials used to be a relatively safe, modest return - a boring sector. It needs to be boring again.
Ditto real estate.
"Streaming news -- a new feature of Active Trader Pro® that gives you real time dynamic news2"
Fidelity is entering 21st century about 8 year's too late.
Cia0
MS
serf hope: I rather suspect the same. The only real risk I see is the "Mad Max" scenario... which won't happen from financial/economic alone. But the nature of random processes alomst guarantees some sort of devastating, once-a-millenium sort of disaster to strike at the same time. Bird flu or some crap like that, millions perish.
Hey c'mon guys. Do you want it to be cloudy every day?
(Or whatever it was that Erin Bimbo said.)
Financials used to be a relatively safe, modest return - a boring sector. It needs to be boring again.
Yep. Finance needs to support the economy, not to BE the economy.
The reason the financials are getting whacked is that Paulson said he wasn't going to call the other half of the TARP. We're all calling his bluff. He is such a dumb-ass to have dared us.
Someone brought up auto mechanics - I know they don't make the amount of money they charge per hour - fees, insurance, etc. But I think $100/hr. is too much to pay someone to crank a wrench.
It's all contained.
Speed writes:
Financials used to be a relatively safe, modest return - a boring sector. It needs to be boring again
As a Wall Street speculator I am offended. I should be free to take as much risk as possible to maximize my profits. and should anything bad happen, I DESERVE to be made whole. Any other outcome is communsm!!!
[SARCASM]
"Someone brought up auto mechanics - I know they don't make the amount of money they charge per hour - fees, insurance, etc. But I think $100/hr. is too much to pay someone to crank a wrench."
And crank the wrench on unneeded or fraudulant repairs as well. Half the dealer mechanics should be lined up and shot.
is that Paulson said he wasn't going to call the other half of the TARP.
He wasn't going to get access to the other half (congress was going to stop him) so he pretended to walk away in order to save face.
Worst President Ever + Worst Treasury Secretary Ever.
and don't forget the enabling service writers.
Someone brought up auto mechanics - I know they don't make the amount of money they charge per hour - fees, insurance, etc. But I think $100/hr. is too much to pay someone to crank a wrench.
Speed | 11.19.08 - 5:01 pm
Well run, competent shops pay the techs a commission.
Finance needs to support the economy, not to BE the economy
Exactly.
It's the govt's job to be the economy.
Wow. I can't believe he ate the whole thing.
BAC assumes CFC debt
.
What's that Denis Kneale guy doing nowadays? He's not still on CNBC is he?
He has a permanent anchor spot on Power Lunch every day.
Comrade Scared Shitles
Is he the idiot who spouts the usual free market nonsense and doesn't know shite from shinola?
He makes the Money Honey come across as Eeyore.
fair-
I've been over this time and again.
If you take an asset and value it at .90 but it's really worth .20 or may be a bit more regardless if you give it back via the reverse repo you are creating value that was never there in the first place.
That's printing money....the value was never there in the first place so if you put back the .50 that you got in fake valuation what did you do with it while you had it??
It didn't sit on a balance sheet I can assure you.
Ciao
MS
"Someone brought up auto mechanics - I know they don't make the amount of money they charge per hour - fees, insurance, etc. But I think $100/hr. is too much to pay someone to crank a wrench."
If it's so easy, learn to crank it yourself.
Auto mechanics have a lot overhead. Shop space is expensive, much more so in areas like SF Bay where real estate is absurdly expensive.
Auto mechanics have a lot overhead.
Once they figure out how to cheat, what's to stop them?
"If it's so easy, learn to crank it yourself"
It's easy. I do. Mostly I don't have time. Thanks for the suggestion.
dow 6000
citizenenergyecon,
Yup, declines industry wide in energy investment. I just wanted to use that link as a good example. The only place I could think of investment continuing on schedule would be Angola.
Forget that Ned, how about the $2 Trillion plus that has been handed out like crack coacaine?
OCDan | 11.19.08 - 4:55 pm
Guess who's sitting on cash!
It's damn good to be a banksta!
RE: next bubble.
Common sentiment in Europe about the topic is: alternative energy.
Starting from 2020, I'd say.
Chill Bear, Reformed Dope
In the mad max scenario, were all dead anyway, so any bets good or bad would be worthless. In the long run, banking institutions have been profitable. They even managed to succeed after Jesus kicked them out of the temple. I will bet on their long term success. Just not right now.
BTW, SEK is down 5% today. Still falling.
MS,
It's printing money, but in a way that cannot cause net credit growth which is to say it does not bring the same inflationary risk
Like I said last week, Berkshire Hathaway will be knocking at Paulson's TARP door OR become a bank holding company
Bloomberg:Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. fell the most in at least 23 years, dropping for the eighth straight day since reporting a 77 percent decline in third- quarter profit.
The stock plunged $11,550, or 12 percent, to $84,000 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading at 4:01 p.m.
Berkshire has posted four straight profit declines, the worst streak in at least 13 years, on investment losses and falling returns at insurance businesses.
A Real Trader(Unrated) writes:
The reason the financials are getting whacked is that Paulson said he wasn't going to call the other half of the TARP. We're all calling his bluff. He is such a dumb-ass to have dared us.
I do not think that you are the only person trying to teach Mr. Horse a trick at this time.
Conflicting trainers lead to confusing and erratic results.
Hating on the Auto Mechanics = typical elitist class warfare crap.
Guess what. A revolution comes, or Mad Max, and the mechanics will not be going up against the wall. Your ass will be.
Speed: What happend to poor Sweden? Are they looking to repeat the Icelandic adventure?
i'm getting better at the casual acceptance of say 400+ drops i recall the old days and the stress but now it's like HA. the fools.
MS, insofar as the Fed is giving out money via the repos, it's not M0, it's a time-limited M3, and that's not going to have much inflationary effect. In addition, it can do no more than replace money already lost. At best it's partly delaying the deflation from asset losses. The soaring dollar and 3-month liquidity trap prove the Fed is not printing nearly enough.
Is this the Goldilocks market and economy L Kudlow raves about ?
Looks like we might have some angry bulls in here who lost a lot of money taking some bad advice...now they want to attack those of us who have been correct...sorry for your loss.
Hating on the Auto Mechanics = typical elitist class warfare crap.
your typical unemployed auto mechanic will be out stealing parts.
Yeah, I don't know what's going on with SEK. I know that they're exposed to Baltic mortgages, but I haven't heard any news.
At what point does the Treasury turn to Berkshire Hathaway for a bailout?
I'm sure Paulson & Co are watching all this unfold and thinking that it is evidence that they were actually doing something to support the markets with the TARP. They are probably thinking, "See, we toss in the towel and look what happens...."
serf: I'll be fine, either in the Coast Range of CA (which has water), or on acreage in northern Indiana. My family has been canning food since the the 1960s. Seed stock could be a problem.
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.19.08 - 5:06 pm | #
Likely some in Nigeria as well, similarly to Angola as flares out investments that would cost more to cancel than complete...though I suspect we will be surprised on the downside with what does end up getting put on the shelf.
In case you missed it...
Buffett's Berkshire Falls Most in at Least 23 Years (Update1)
By Linda Shen
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. fell the most in at least 23 years, dropping for the eighth straight day since reporting a 77 percent decline in third- quarter profit.
The stock plunged $11,550, or 12 percent, to $84,000 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading at 4:01 p.m.
Buffett's Berkshire Falls Most in at Least 23 Years (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Warren Buffett aka... Mr. Magoo
By its very nature, comparative advantage thins down the competitive nature of each ecological niche by increasing the number of niches, thus creating a structure increasingly prone to disruption by any one of its elements.
This is why your auto mechanic dude and your banker can rob you with impunity now.
"At what point does the Treasury turn to Berkshire Hathaway for a bailout?"
Hopefully before BRK drops below $50,000 a share.
Financials used to be a relatively safe, modest return - a boring sector. It needs to be boring again
Speed that's exactly it, adults accept that life is boring, in fact, they accept that its part of their duty to an affluent society to keep it that way.
You don't go out and f*** around on your spouse and then claim you did your family a favor because it was just to goddamn stable and happy around here.
That's exactly what the neocon Bush administration did.
or on acreage in northern Indiana
Which will probably be occupied by squatting auto mechanics with monkey wrenches by the time you get there. Hope you bring your brass knuckles.
Tiberius(Unrated) writes:
your typical unemployed auto mechanic will be out stealing parts.
From your car.
"BAC has even backed CFC's debt.
Ken Lewis has yet to back away from anything and has done exactly what he said he would do at any point in time. He is a straight shooter."
You might want to read up on BAC, CFC, Red Oak LLC, and bankruptcy remote.
Right out of BAC's own S-4 filing around April 2008
Are Countrywide Financial Bond Holders Bankruptcy Remote? -- Seeking Alpha
The BAC S-4 states: "Bank of America has made no determination in this regard, and there is no assurance that any of such debt would be redeemed, assumed or guaranteed," the company said in a filing with the SEC. The clear implication of BAC's refusal to take responsibility for the $40 billion or so in parent-company debt is that BAC CEO Ken Lewis is considering a bankruptcy filing for CFC as one possible strategy after the transaction closes. "
How Ironic.
TV on background just passed an AD on "World at war - call on duty" Videogame.
Frikkin' scary!
p.s. yesterday i saw for the third time "American Beauty". Main character: a realtor. Profetic.
I think Robini's gloom is probably pretty accurate. It seems obvious that the market can't bottom without some view of how the economy is going to turn around.
That economic outlook ahead can't really be assessed, along with general confidence levels (which is the real key), until we get to judge what Obama has planned to actually push for in Congress.
Bottom line: lower markets or ups/downs until at least mid-Feb. 09. Anything lasting can't be attributed before then, and perhaps not even until we see signs that Congress and Obama are going to actually do something that is likely to work.
When the auto companies go down I foresee the possibility of massive social unrest.
A lot of those UAW workers have guns.
"You don't go out and f*** around on your spouse and then claim you did your family a favor because it was just to goddamn stable and happy around here."
Bill Clinton literally did do this. I don't remember the evil devil bush doing this however.
anon from the earlier threads, if you are here, thanks.
"rps writes:
Warren Buffett aka... Mr. Magoo"
I do not think so. I think Greenspan has that title.
666 Visitors Online
So what do you all think Obama is going to do with the remaining $350B TARP money?
I have been bearish all year. I have done really, really well. That said, pervasive doom and gloom usually leads to a rally. Maybe tomorrow, maybe not, but soon I think. Nothing goes one way forever without a break. What hasn't been priced into this market at this point?
""You don't go out and f*** around on your spouse and then claim you did your family a favor because it was just to goddamn stable and happy around here."
Bill Clinton literally did do this. I don't remember the evil devil bush doing this however."
Bill Clinton screwed around but I don't see anywhere him claiming that he did as a favour to his family.
Plus it's hard to screw around when you're drunk and high.
Don't you have to yell "Down go Frazier" a couple more times like a 5 year old child or find another baseless internet rumor to post?
® | 11.19.08 - 4:48 pm | #
crispy has infinitely more credibility and standing on this board than you do, my registered trademark friend.
scary resemblance to Roubini
Google Image Result for http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/Bela_Lugosi_01.jpg
fair-
Look at EHP's response.
It's covertly printing money that's all there is to it.
Value exists where it didn't previously and the enabler of it is the FED repo. process. The value of an asset is it's mark-to-market valuation. Repo's ignore that fundamental aspect.
Saying it puts it back via reverse repo's is like eating all the cookies out of a package and then regurgitating them back in and saying it's just the same. But it's not.
The money between actuals and assigned values is the printing.
No more or less.
Ciao
MS
When the auto companies go down I foresee the possibility of massive social unrest.
A little bit of actual political organization might be nice. Of course, in some quarters that's considered "massive social unrest."
until we see signs that Congress and Obama are going to actually do something that is likely to work
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
OMG.
I have to go to an interview now.
BAHAHAHAHAHA.
Funniest comment of the day.
What hasn't been priced into this market at this point?
Edgar Online | 11.19.08
The 60 Trillion dollars in CDSs for starters.
A little bit of actual political organization might be nice. Of course, in some quarters that's considered "massive social unrest."
ha - I just hope it doesn't become violent.
I guess this means the Saudis will not be open to another capital injection for C.
What hasn't been priced into this market at this point?
Edgar Online | 11.19.08 - 5:20 pm | #
Looking at stock market volatility these days, I wonder if anything is being "priced" in at all.
I guess this means the Saudis will not be open to another capital injection for C.
But they could get so many more shares for so much less!
Half of the dispossessed auto workers will go to work for Blackwater and the other half will attempt to organize. I don't expect much from the college graduates; they're still going to be wandering around in a daze a few years from now, dreaming of going back to nature and living off the fatta the lan'.
10y bond \t3.32% \t-0.14 (-4.05%)
What the?
"When the auto companies go down I foresee the possibility of massive social unrest."
I honestly would not be surprised to see a rise of a socialist/communist movement. More folks questioning the basic structure of our capitalist system and not willing to accept the democrats as their leaders.
Thanks Gary!
BRKA down 11,550 (12%).
Now I think we can all agree: that's exceptional!
I honestly would not be surprised to see a rise of a socialist/communist movement. More folks questioning the basic structure of our capitalist system and not willing to accept the democrats as their leaders.
serf hopeinsd | 11.19.08 - 5:26 pm
Think more in terms of a paradigm shift.
If the Big Three go BK, it would be wise for the executives to take extended vacations, outside the US, under assumed names. It won't be a simple smack in the gob at the gym for them.
I'm sorry peeps...I hear ya on the medium turn trend sentiments, but these markets reward those that act on the highs and the lows...there is a lot of "rangebound" opportunities here. we go from oh we're going to be ok to oh no its Armageddon. We're at oh no its Armageddon right now and I say....snap up some UYG. At every single moment when we said "holy shit its the end" we enjoy a nice bounce (or vice versa).
I LOVE trading this market...its almost too easy.
Its like flipping the switch on SpaceBalls from Suck to Blow!
There may be a tiny bit of upside to SKF here, but not much...I'm going to endure some stomach ache and get in UYG.
"10y bond 3.32% -0.14 (-4.05%)"
Now that's deflation you can believe in.
I see interesting things going on with the remnants of the Rockefeller Republicans in my neck of the woods... the voters, I mean, the non-evangelical fiscal conservative pro-small-business formerly-GOP-now-agnostics. They seem ripe to come up with a paradigm shift.
Kona - Izzz took a hit on C today. Oh well its meant to be a long play. My fear is that instead of holding the mother ship together, V may decide to parcel it off in pieces.
Zeph why are you attacking me?!?!? Do you hate everyone on CR or just Americans in general?!?
(I've seen Ann Coulter do this when trying to argue with people she thinks are grossly ignorant and incapable of grasping self-evident analogies. Let's see what kind of response it brings.)
So, come the second week of December, a lot of folks will get their 401k statements - going to make the nation in a bitter mood.
With much respect, a minor quibble about the word "crash." The word just seems to have a satisfying finality that I don't see this time. Maybe more like the Star-Trek transporters. All that 'wealth' turns funny colors and then is just gone. More and more things going poof.
10y bond 3.32% -0.14 (-4.05%)
What the?
Blackhalo |
I was wondering when I could start to short treasuries.
The thing that makes it worse is that when the government auctions fail because it's cheaper to buy paper already on the market.
Paulson is like a metastized cancer patient who's going from a naturopath to a homeopath to get him better.
Not only doesn't he know what's wrong with himself he's going to the wrong people for health.
yeah mal and serfhopeinsd both of those scenarios sound plausible.
But hey - some houses in flint are on sale for about 3,000 to 4,000.
Pissed Off In California writes:
"10y bond 3.32% -0.14 (-4.05%)"
The line is flattening out. The economy is going to get worse.
Back to your comment yesterday - Why the hech would you move to Vancouver?
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf
mal: Where were those folks during Ron Paul's campaign??
mal: Where were those folks during Ron Paul's campaign??
mykillk | Homepage | 11.19.08 - 5:33 pm
Having tea.
Bush, with Paulson as a 'guest', will be the first president to leave office and ordering the pilot by having AF1 fly him directly out of the country to Paraguay.
AF1 will be ordered to land in Miami by a full squadron of USAF fighters, on order of Gates/Obama.
Mister Bush can fly commercial across the border, not on the taxpayer's dimes (a big march of dimes).
Send lawyers, guns, and money ---
Maybe more like the Star-Trek transporters.
When they malfunction.
VIX hits 75 wow!
Barley(Unrated) writes:
So, come the second week of December, a lot of folks will get their 401k statements - going to make the nation in a bitter mood.
No job, no retirement, no savings and unemployment running out. I think people will not just be bitter. I think we are about see some genuine rage.
I got out at 14,000. I was gonna get back in at 10000. That is down 4000 points. Now we are down 6,000 points. Liz marvels. I am still scared to get back in.
I think I read that the dow went down, top to bottom 90% in GD I.
So I should wait for 1,400? Just seems incredible.
The mall across the street is very busy today.
At a 6 handle I fear I will no longer be able to resist temptation.
Here you go Nemo:
lawyers guns and money - Google Videos
Great tune.
Rage is already here in some parts of the country. We've had it bad for awhile in Florida and now it's gotten worse. There are NO jobs, cost of living is still high, property taxes went up and insurance is still just as high. Today we had more foreclosure notices in the paper than help wanted ads...These people are armed and angry...
Wow this is begining to feel like free fall.
Make sure that Bugs puts a mattress out for us.
Nostrovia,
he mall across the street is very busy today.
Folks burning up severance pay?
What is "uttering forged documents"?
lawyerliz --
I am still scared to get back in.
This is why market timing never works.
At some point, we will hit a bottom and it will look an awful lot like this. Not saying this is it; just saying.
Not to sound too much like Jas, but I think predictions of (hopes of?) social unrest are giving Americans a little too much credit. Most will quietly rely on the government to make sure they still have basic cable and McDonalds.
Mall has been fairly busy here in the panhandle as well however, we have a ton of retired military here, their pensions aren't getting hit, that they know of.
"uttering forged documents" is passing stolen checks.