The biggest problem I see is the freeze in shipping, due to credit problems. There will be lots of localized shortages of lots of stuff. How do I profit from this, since it will happen whether I profit or not?
by structuring rents (money rent) in a low cost environment (essentially ZIRP), the margin maintenance is sales of property and patching the roof so the krill can line up for linens and thingys.
Yves has a good post up tonight ("Japanese Float Idea ..." on current dollar strength, pending dollar weakness, and the likely eventual issuance of Treasuries denominated in Yen and other foreign currencies.
That is when the pain will start to set in big time. We're just getting started.
It's ok everyone, we've enabled Wall St to engage in things they understand even less -- book the rally
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.20.08 - 12:21 am
I sat through a talk yesterday that was explaining the different algorithms and profiles for pseudorandom, quasirandom, and crypographic numbers. I think if I were on LSD it would have made perfect sense. One of the topics they covered was financials and monte carlo simulations. He was discussing that they needed quasirandom rather than pseudorandom RNG's so that you don't end up with blind spots. There is also the independance issue since they were always pricing the models based on all the inputs acting independantly and not an across the board 20% downturn.
Just imagine when we have to borrow in Yen or Euros or Yuan to fund Social Security, Medicare, Defense, Education and all the other stuff our congress critters love to lavish money on. There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth as spending programs are absolutely gutted.
OK, jokes off. I saw a reference (attributed to Mish, I couldn't find it) that said JPM, GS, and the rest of the Infinity Watch were on the right side of GM going boom, so no bailout. Anyone know about this?
THE middleman who brokered some illegal kidney-for-sale transactions started his 14-month jail term yesterday, after the High Court threw out his appeal to have his sentence reduced.
Justice V. K. Rajah said the sentence handed down to Wang Chin Sing by a district court was 'amply justified' and sent a clear message that organ trafficking would not be tolerated in Singapore.
'The appellant has peddled deceit, trafficked in organs and profiteered from misery,' said the appeal judge.
In delivering the grounds of his decision, Justice Rajah highlighted the role of 'shady middlemen' who exploit desperately ill buyers and financially disadvantaged sellers, usually inspired by 'unbridled avarice to maximise their financial returns' from each transaction.
If I can't traffic in illegal organs, I guess I'm going to hang out with creepy old men at the bus station. I am dirty and nobody likes me. But creepy old men.
EvilHenryPaulson writes: Georgia Tech's parallel processing code for PlayStation 3's Cell processor makes mountains of random numbers to improve Value-at-Risk and other important algorithms
Soooo... the problem with their models was... not enough random inputs... (little finger to mouth)... RIIIIGGGHHHHTTTT....
There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. Ludwig von Mises
The auto bailout vote was for the thing recently written, heard about the cancellation this afternoon. The question at that time was whether or not they would expedite the $25bn loan. Republicans wanted it to be shared with southern automakers, Democrats wanted it to go to the Big3 but quicker than the emissions related loan on schedule
If we start issuing treasuries in foreign currencies, as in the Carter years, does that tend to drive down the price of the treasuries or drive them up?
Specifically, what's the implication with TBT and shorts of treasuries?
Prices are now high as everybody wants them and yields are correspondingly low.
Am I correct that it's a net nothing as the notional rate increases but the buyers still want it and hence the price stays the same (and keeps yield down)? Am I even correct in using the term "notional" rate or is that face rate?
The markets plunge has made investors reluctant to look for bargains. S&P 500 companies traded for 13.5 times normalized earnings at the end of October, the lowest since the 1980s, according to a report distributed this week by Minneapolis-based investment firm Leuthold Group LLC. The firms figure is calculated using the average of five years of profit.
The cost of using credit swaps to protect corporate bonds and loans from default rose to a record in the U.S. yesterday. The Markit CDX North America Investment-Grade index jumped 22 basis points to 247 basis points. Interest rates on U.S. commercial paper rose to the highest in almost two weeks, according to yields offered by companies and compiled by Bloomberg.
Europe and Japan slipped into a recession last quarter, according to data released in the past week. The German economy, Europes largest, is suffering the worst slump in 12 years.
There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. Ludwig von Mises
homedad43 - seems to me that long Treasuries should initially decline in price once the crunch gets underway, as the US remains in denial as to the necessity of foreign currency issuance until such point as the interest rate on USD-denominated Treasuries becomes too painful. Then something more like a dynamic equilibrium.
More accurately, it hit the propellers of their Cessna Conquest-II TurboProp private planes that their Boards of Directors insisted they fly "for safety reasons".
If we start issuing treasuries in foreign currencies, as in the Carter years, does that tend to drive down the price of the treasuries or drive them up?"
That's not the issue IMO. The issue is bond markets are then driven by currency fluctuations AND regular trading. Real easy to crash a currency and lever up the obligation. Too easy in the case of American debt.
First, there are still lots of investors trying to hedge their exposure to an enormous supply of corporate and sovereign debt that is currently outstanding, according to Nybo. That means that new CDS contracts can be written even without new bond issues, he says. CDS also serve as a form of leverage for investors who don't have debt positions to hedge but want to take directional bets on credit spreads either widening or narrowing.
Although transparency and risk reduction are the two mantras driving regulators' aggressive push for a centralized platform to clear CDS trades, an equally important goal is to compress trades by "tearing up" redundant transactions that dealers did to protect themselves against unknown counterparty risk, says Jeffrey Hogan, senior managing director at BGC Partners (BGCP), an interdealer securities broker. The redundant trades tied up capital, which dealers felt they needed to reserve for potential payouts on CDS they had sold. "For a given amount of capital, a dealer can do more transactions because they all [trades are guaranteed by a single counterparty]," says Hogan. "Central clearing will result in higher velocity of transactions in those [CDS] products," both for indexed and individual bonds.
Mises argued that money is demanded for its usefulness in purchasing other goods, rather than for its own sake and that any unsound credit expansion causes business cycles.
Inspired by his belief that the monetary crisis of the 1970s was predicted by the Austrian school, and caused by excessive government spending on the Vietnam War and wholesale welfare,[13] Paul became a delegate to the Texas Republican convention and a Republican candidate for Congress.
Why are yen-denominated Treasuries a necessity? Yves's post only quoted one person from Mitsubishi UFJ who thinks it should happen, and he probably has his own interests in mind for wanting it.
Prof. Nouriel "Windup" Roubini has coined a new term (unless someone else writes his blog posts). Stag-Deflation. Also, in a spectacular attempt to deny his own wonkosity he uses the term "fugly."
Ahead of the Curve: Two Years at Harvard Business School
"His main conclusion is that MBA students at Harvard are insecure overachievers and "a factory of unhappy people" who, when they graduate, work too much at their jobs and don't spend enough time with their families and outside interests (p. 268) He said most of the famous CEOs who came to speak at Harvard were successful in business but failures in their home live (multi-divorces). On p. 270, he tells the story of a Goldman Sachs exec who came to Harvard to talk about leadership and values, and then confessed he had four ex-wives. However, he fails to mention that dean Clark has managed to have a successful career and a good family life with seven kids and a loving wife."
Just finished reading this book. I was left with a tangible feeling of distaste for the motivations of the American best and brightest.
HBS has a good mix of nationalities but the drive and tempo was set by the American students. Broughton's anecdotes from fellow foreign students are very telling, not flattering.
Recommended read for anyone wondering where the current corporate culture of "win at all costs" and damn the consequences originated.
Brock Sampson,
It's been done before, they were called Carter Bonds. 1979 me believes.
It's basically a vote of non-confidence in the dollar's value for the term of the Treasury. Also the theoretical benefit is the US treasury constantly rolling over that paper would be better able to handle the exchange risk
The biggest problem I see is the freeze in shipping, due to credit problems. There will be lots of localized shortages of lots of stuff. How do I profit from this, since it will happen whether I profit or not?
dr munch
Already happening. If there's a must get toy for Xmas, get it this weekend.
All you can hope for is buy a taste of retail now and sell on the goodish news coming off of black Friday. Or just play blackjack next Mon-Wed. in Vegas.
I have a number of Economist magazines from earlier this year stacked up in my bathroom. It was amusing perusing through them a bit tonight.
YLSP | 11.20.08 - 12:51 am | #
It occurred to me that I might want to get a copy of ValueLine (just got a new ad in the mail)in a few months,...just to see all those downward sloping graphs. A collector's item. But maybe it might be better to wait a year to emphasize the point.
Hey, maybe GM should do some of those high school car washes. Seem to draw well at my local Kwik-e-Mart. Come to think of it, maybe that's the answer to the CRE problem - high school window washing. Hey, that's my idea. Don't Bogart it.
Of course Iceland is not the only country with big banks. [It was when I did a study a while ago the country with the second highest bank revenue to GDP ratio in the world ] The country that beat it of course was Switzerland. And sure the Swiss banks are better than Kaupthing but UBS is not that good and relative the Swiss Economy it is about as big that is too big to bail out.
Captain Fish (Paper Pusher)(Unrated) writes:
Is there a bottom to a black hole?
Our normal terms cease to have meaning inside the Schwartzchild radius, just like the stock market technical analysis is going to find some new things in the coming months.
I feel like the end will have some hilarious results. All I feel like I can do is laugh and try to profit. This blog goes a long way towards helping me cope. I'm not tied to any type of 20+ year old investing world view so...
I kind've wished that Paulsen would've ended his testimony to Congress with something like... "I would've gotten away with it if it weren't for you meddling bloggers!"
"The solution has always been and will always be bake sales.
Elvis"
@Elvis
Maybe we should consult CSC on this. Hey, where is CSC? Hey, CSC, turn down the volume on Second City TV, we have an important economic issue to discuss.
"General Growth"? Apparently it was not a benign growth.At least I have plenty of venison.A damn buck knocked down my deer fence this morning,early.Now hanging in the Garage.One Nyclad from a 2" smith,barely twitched.
In the face of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, European leaders had flirted with the idea of actually trying to change something. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said, "Laissez-faire, it's finished. The all-powerful market that is always right, it's finished." As a result, it is necessary to rebuild the entire global financial and monetary system from the bottom up, "the way it was done at Bretton Woods."
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown pointed out a deep contradiction of capitalist globalization: "We now have global financial markets, global corporations, global financial flows. But what we do not have is anything other than national and regional regulation and supervision." We need "a global way of supervising our financial system." He called for "very large and very radical changes," including turning the IMF into a "global central bank."
EHP, thanks for the reply. You are right that it is certainly a possibility, I'm just saying that I don't see how one man's musings automatically make it an inevitability. I need to see some auctions failing before I start freaking out over things like this. Of course, if the Fed really is printing money to buy long bonds then maybe I won't notice the problem? Bleah...
"It occurred to me that I might want to get a copy of ValueLine (just got a new ad in the mail)in a few months,...just to see all those downward sloping graphs. A collector's item. But maybe it might be better to wait a year to emphasize the point."
When I go to the library I always get a good laugh out of reading random articles from year old copies of finance magazines. It's like reading comedy.
Articles about why a recession was unlikely. How to profit from the commodity boom. Oil to $200. The turn-around specialists at Chrysler.
Ahh the good old days when all we were looking at was a mild recession and a regular bear market.
There are several old Ford and GM auto plants in the San Francisco Bay area that were converted to malls when they closed, Now when the big 3 finally go BK, GGP can then render the building useless....
Good God!!! Seriously the IMF a global central bank.... sure I guess, the central banks of the nations have done a bang up job so far, lets just super size it..
Oops, now Tom Friedman may have to double up and get the new Playstation to serve as both his gaming console AND Blue-Ray capable device, instead of getting each unit individually. I guess all of us have to sacrifice at this moment in history.
woot!
Obviously the "Galleria" they own near me (in St. Louis) is not going to close, right?
Right????
(I'm just kidding, I hate that mall. Most malls, as a matter of fact.)
Nice hat tip, crispy!
"The move doesn't mean a Chapter 11 filing is imminent."
Yeah, not tomorrow. Friday maybe.
takes a while to fill out all those forms
Reggie Middleton has more crunchy ubernerdiness than you can digest at:
Reggie Middleton says... | GGP and the type of investigative analysis you will not get from your brokerage house - This missive is more than probably any outside investor in GGP knows about G... | Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog | Ggp, Growth, Gene
how did all these "pro's" get involved in acquisition binges during the peak of the bubble?
maybe not "pro's"
Why aren't the mall reits testifying before congress for their bailout?
it's only the right thing to do.
if america can't shop, well . . . wtf?
The lenders have an incentive to back off until after the holidays, but that's not saying much.
The bottom is in! By the way, what are anal fissures?
Good night all
fissures are a fiscal problem
Greed is a good thing.
Common sense is even better. To bad they didnt have any.
Serves them right!
This will all happen again in one form or another.
ext time with horses and buggys
This will get better in 6 months.
The biggest problem I see is the freeze in shipping, due to credit problems. There will be lots of localized shortages of lots of stuff. How do I profit from this, since it will happen whether I profit or not?
6 month t bill = zirp
why is Ackman pushing for the REIT spin on Target?
Spreads in the 1920's
http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/Trends/1998/0298/int1920.pdf
razor blades toilet paper and vodka
Nikkei down 520 now
@f'ed up
true that...or maybe hieroglyphs and inclined planes?
If only banks would lend
and consumers would spend
this all would end
my dear, indebted friend.
I'll answer my own question.
by structuring rents (money rent) in a low cost environment (essentially ZIRP), the margin maintenance is sales of property and patching the roof so the krill can line up for linens and thingys.
Georgia Tech's parallel processing code for PlayStation 3's Cell processor makes mountains of random numbers to improve Value-at-Risk and other important algorithms
It's ok everyone, we've enabled Wall St to engage in things they understand even less -- book the rally
There'll be plenty of empty malls available to shoot a new Dawn of the Dead sequel.
-GSD
The world is flat .... broke.
@GSD
Yes! And lots of zombies.
Uh..I think my pony is a zombie. what do I do now?
Holy smokes. 9,000,000,000 shares SOLD by insiders.
GGP: Insider Transactions for GENERAL GROWTH PPTYS INC - Yahoo! Finance
@jharp
heh, you talkin about me? heh
This will get better in 6 months.
Did a taxi driver tell you that?
just got lucky
Yves has a good post up tonight ("Japanese Float Idea ..." on current dollar strength, pending dollar weakness, and the likely eventual issuance of Treasuries denominated in Yen and other foreign currencies.
That is when the pain will start to set in big time. We're just getting started.
It's ok everyone, we've enabled Wall St to engage in things they understand even less -- book the rally
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.20.08 - 12:21 am
I sat through a talk yesterday that was explaining the different algorithms and profiles for pseudorandom, quasirandom, and crypographic numbers. I think if I were on LSD it would have made perfect sense. One of the topics they covered was financials and monte carlo simulations. He was discussing that they needed quasirandom rather than pseudorandom RNG's so that you don't end up with blind spots. There is also the independance issue since they were always pricing the models based on all the inputs acting independantly and not an across the board 20% downturn.
@jharp
Guess John Bucksbaum didn't get the memo. Maybe he missed the 'team building' exercise in Pahrump, NV.
anoddamoose: acute migraine not used to the screwed position
love america
If the mall closes down, who should I give my money to in return for useless crap?
Auto Bailout Vote Cancelled.
Just imagine when we have to borrow in Yen or Euros or Yuan to fund Social Security, Medicare, Defense, Education and all the other stuff our congress critters love to lavish money on. There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth as spending programs are absolutely gutted.
Bladerunner: "Wake up, it's time to die!"
"RNG's so that you don't end up with blind spots."
Shouldn't that be "RPG's"?
Honey, let's go to the mall and file BK and get an Orange Julius.
RNG = Random number generator. alpha x1x2.
I'm telling you. Victoria's Secret will give a bonus gift with their lingerie this year.
"CNN: AUTO BAILOUT VOTE CANCELLED"
Shit. Fan. Shit hits fan.
Tomorrow.
OK, jokes off. I saw a reference (attributed to Mish, I couldn't find it) that said JPM, GS, and the rest of the Infinity Watch were on the right side of GM going boom, so no bailout. Anyone know about this?
"I'm telling you. Victoria's Secret will give a bonus gift with their lingerie this year."
A pony?...rather have Heidi Whatshername...
THE middleman who brokered some illegal kidney-for-sale transactions started his 14-month jail term yesterday, after the High Court threw out his appeal to have his sentence reduced.
Justice V. K. Rajah said the sentence handed down to Wang Chin Sing by a district court was 'amply justified' and sent a clear message that organ trafficking would not be tolerated in Singapore.
'The appellant has peddled deceit, trafficked in organs and profiteered from misery,' said the appeal judge.
In delivering the grounds of his decision, Justice Rajah highlighted the role of 'shady middlemen' who exploit desperately ill buyers and financially disadvantaged sellers, usually inspired by 'unbridled avarice to maximise their financial returns' from each transaction.
Organ broker loses appeal
jharp-
Gonna a be rough holiday season in the Bucksbaum household.
Poor fella bought it all the way down.
CNN: AUTO BAILOUT VOTE CANCELLED
I wish we could run a few more simulations before we try this experiment on actual live people.
Are there any blogs that discuss what's going on in the bond market, targeted to non-professionals (unlike Across the Curve...over my head)
JPM says ZIRP by January.
Fed to Cut Rates to Zero on Deflation Risk, JPMorgan Predicts - Bloomberg.com
If I can't traffic in illegal organs, I guess I'm going to hang out with creepy old men at the bus station. I am dirty and nobody likes me. But creepy old men.
CNN: AUTO BAILOUT VOTE CANCELLED
Maybe they came to their senses.
I know I know, hahaha, I couldn't resist.
EvilHenryPaulson writes: Georgia Tech's parallel processing code for PlayStation 3's Cell processor makes mountains of random numbers to improve Value-at-Risk and other important algorithms
Soooo... the problem with their models was... not enough random inputs... (little finger to mouth)... RIIIIGGGHHHHTTTT....
"mykillk writes:
Are there any blogs that discuss what's going on in the bond market,"
Not that still exist or people visit.
There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. Ludwig von Mises
The auto bailout vote was for the thing recently written, heard about the cancellation this afternoon. The question at that time was whether or not they would expedite the $25bn loan. Republicans wanted it to be shared with southern automakers, Democrats wanted it to go to the Big3 but quicker than the emissions related loan on schedule
Nikkei off 6.25%, closes in 20 min.
The appropriate song for this subject is by the Talking Heads-Flowers.
YouTube -
One final question.
If we start issuing treasuries in foreign currencies, as in the Carter years, does that tend to drive down the price of the treasuries or drive them up?
Specifically, what's the implication with TBT and shorts of treasuries?
Prices are now high as everybody wants them and yields are correspondingly low.
Am I correct that it's a net nothing as the notional rate increases but the buyers still want it and hence the price stays the same (and keeps yield down)? Am I even correct in using the term "notional" rate or is that face rate?
Hmm.
Hey Tom Friedman.
Suck.
On.
This.
"Democrats wanted it to go to the Big3"
Is that the 3 headed dog?
Stocks Plunge, Bond Risk Climbs After Paulson Changes Approach - Bloomberg.com
The markets plunge has made investors reluctant to look for bargains. S&P 500 companies traded for 13.5 times normalized earnings at the end of October, the lowest since the 1980s, according to a report distributed this week by Minneapolis-based investment firm Leuthold Group LLC. The firms figure is calculated using the average of five years of profit.
The cost of using credit swaps to protect corporate bonds and loans from default rose to a record in the U.S. yesterday. The Markit CDX North America Investment-Grade index jumped 22 basis points to 247 basis points. Interest rates on U.S. commercial paper rose to the highest in almost two weeks, according to yields offered by companies and compiled by Bloomberg.
Europe and Japan slipped into a recession last quarter, according to data released in the past week. The German economy, Europes largest, is suffering the worst slump in 12 years.
There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. Ludwig von Mises
Guess we know how that one is playing out.
mykillk -
Jesse's Café Américain
[hat tip]
Setser
I thought everyone knew the auto bailout vote was cancelled? At least that was the news on the radio this afternoon. It's not going to happen.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
So let it be written: mp has prophesized that the day many on this board have awaited is upon us.
I have a number of Economist magazines from earlier this year stacked up in my bathroom. It was amusing perusing through them a bit tonight.
"Specifically, what's the implication with TBT and shorts of treasuries?"
Quit being a day trader. Long term interst rates on Treasuries will increase. Guaranteed. Buy.
homedad43 - seems to me that long Treasuries should initially decline in price once the crunch gets underway, as the US remains in denial as to the necessity of foreign currency issuance until such point as the interest rate on USD-denominated Treasuries becomes too painful. Then something more like a dynamic equilibrium.
Hopefully some bond people will chime in.
mp writes: "CNN: AUTO BAILOUT VOTE CANCELLED"
Shit. Fan. Shit hits fan.
More accurately, it hit the propellers of their Cessna Conquest-II TurboProp private planes that their Boards of Directors insisted they fly "for safety reasons".
Is there a bottom to a black hole?
It is safer to fly than drive. Too many drunks and incompetent fools on the road.
"Homedad wrote:
One final question.
If we start issuing treasuries in foreign currencies, as in the Carter years, does that tend to drive down the price of the treasuries or drive them up?"
That's not the issue IMO. The issue is bond markets are then driven by currency fluctuations AND regular trading. Real easy to crash a currency and lever up the obligation. Too easy in the case of American debt.
Ask an Argentinian if this is a good idea.
"Is there a bottom to a black hole?
Captain Fish"
Racist.
First, there are still lots of investors trying to hedge their exposure to an enormous supply of corporate and sovereign debt that is currently outstanding, according to Nybo. That means that new CDS contracts can be written even without new bond issues, he says. CDS also serve as a form of leverage for investors who don't have debt positions to hedge but want to take directional bets on credit spreads either widening or narrowing.
Although transparency and risk reduction are the two mantras driving regulators' aggressive push for a centralized platform to clear CDS trades, an equally important goal is to compress trades by "tearing up" redundant transactions that dealers did to protect themselves against unknown counterparty risk, says Jeffrey Hogan, senior managing director at BGC Partners (BGCP), an interdealer securities broker. The redundant trades tied up capital, which dealers felt they needed to reserve for potential payouts on CDS they had sold. "For a given amount of capital, a dealer can do more transactions because they all [trades are guaranteed by a single counterparty]," says Hogan. "Central clearing will result in higher velocity of transactions in those [CDS] products," both for indexed and individual bonds.
Regulating Credit Default Swaps: Will It Work? - BusinessWeek
Mises argued that money is demanded for its usefulness in purchasing other goods, rather than for its own sake and that any unsound credit expansion causes business cycles.
See: Ron Paul
Ron Paul - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Inspired by his belief that the monetary crisis of the 1970s was predicted by the Austrian school, and caused by excessive government spending on the Vietnam War and wholesale welfare,[13] Paul became a delegate to the Texas Republican convention and a Republican candidate for Congress.
Ron Paul discusses the NEW Reserve Currency Plans
YouTube - Ron Paul discusses the NEW Reserve Currency Plans
Why are yen-denominated Treasuries a necessity? Yves's post only quoted one person from Mitsubishi UFJ who thinks it should happen, and he probably has his own interests in mind for wanting it.
Prof. Nouriel "Windup" Roubini has coined a new term (unless someone else writes his blog posts). Stag-Deflation. Also, in a spectacular attempt to deny his own wonkosity he uses the term "fugly."
RGE - The Latest Bear Market Sucker’s Rally Has Gone Bust as We Are Headed Towards Stag-Deflation
hong konger | 11.20.08 - 12:40 am | #
Do you live in Hong Kong?
Ahead of the Curve: Two Years at Harvard Business School
"His main conclusion is that MBA students at Harvard are insecure overachievers and "a factory of unhappy people" who, when they graduate, work too much at their jobs and don't spend enough time with their families and outside interests (p. 268) He said most of the famous CEOs who came to speak at Harvard were successful in business but failures in their home live (multi-divorces). On p. 270, he tells the story of a Goldman Sachs exec who came to Harvard to talk about leadership and values, and then confessed he had four ex-wives. However, he fails to mention that dean Clark has managed to have a successful career and a good family life with seven kids and a loving wife."
First review.
Amazon.com: Ahead of the Curve: Two Years at Harvard Business School (9781594201752): Philip Delves Broughton: Books
Just finished reading this book. I was left with a tangible feeling of distaste for the motivations of the American best and brightest.
HBS has a good mix of nationalities but the drive and tempo was set by the American students. Broughton's anecdotes from fellow foreign students are very telling, not flattering.
Recommended read for anyone wondering where the current corporate culture of "win at all costs" and damn the consequences originated.
General Growth Properties is experiencing general decline and embarrasment.
Brock Sampson,
It's been done before, they were called Carter Bonds. 1979 me believes.
It's basically a vote of non-confidence in the dollar's value for the term of the Treasury. Also the theoretical benefit is the US treasury constantly rolling over that paper would be better able to handle the exchange risk
The biggest problem I see is the freeze in shipping, due to credit problems. There will be lots of localized shortages of lots of stuff. How do I profit from this, since it will happen whether I profit or not?
dr munch
Already happening. If there's a must get toy for Xmas, get it this weekend.
All you can hope for is buy a taste of retail now and sell on the goodish news coming off of black Friday. Or just play blackjack next Mon-Wed. in Vegas.
I have a number of Economist magazines from earlier this year stacked up in my bathroom. It was amusing perusing through them a bit tonight.
YLSP | 11.20.08 - 12:51 am | #
It occurred to me that I might want to get a copy of ValueLine (just got a new ad in the mail)in a few months,...just to see all those downward sloping graphs. A collector's item. But maybe it might be better to wait a year to emphasize the point.
"Recommended read for anyone wondering where the current corporate culture of "win at all costs" and damn the consequences originated.
zoom"
Harvard is overrated. Smart kids who lack.
Hey, maybe GM should do some of those high school car washes. Seem to draw well at my local Kwik-e-Mart. Come to think of it, maybe that's the answer to the CRE problem - high school window washing. Hey, that's my idea. Don't Bogart it.
Of course Iceland is not the only country with big banks. [It was when I did a study a while ago the country with the second highest bank revenue to GDP ratio in the world ] The country that beat it of course was Switzerland. And sure the Swiss banks are better than Kaupthing but UBS is not that good and relative the Swiss Economy it is about as big that is too big to bail out.
Bronte Capital: Iceland, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden, Jordan and countries with banks that are too big to bail out
"Send lawyers, guns, and money"
The solution has always been and will always be bake sales.
"Honey, time to bake some cookies. The federal government is broke, again."
Captain Fish (Paper Pusher)(Unrated) writes:
Is there a bottom to a black hole?
Our normal terms cease to have meaning inside the Schwartzchild radius, just like the stock market technical analysis is going to find some new things in the coming months.
I feel like the end will have some hilarious results. All I feel like I can do is laugh and try to profit. This blog goes a long way towards helping me cope. I'm not tied to any type of 20+ year old investing world view so...
I kind've wished that Paulsen would've ended his testimony to Congress with something like... "I would've gotten away with it if it weren't for you meddling bloggers!"
"The solution has always been and will always be bake sales.
Elvis"
@Elvis
Maybe we should consult CSC on this. Hey, where is CSC? Hey, CSC, turn down the volume on Second City TV, we have an important economic issue to discuss.
Nikkei closed down 7% (actually, 6.9%).
Captain Fish (Paper Pusher)(Unrated) writes:
Is there a bottom to a black hole?
Sorry, that's was:
Captain Fish (Paper Pusher)(Really Excellent) writes:
Is there a bottom to a black hole?
"Hey, where is CSC?"
Federal prison for sex with a goat. Incidentally, the goat was not even pretty.
Retiring from the blog is easy when you are in federal prison, and you are now the goat.
"General Growth"? Apparently it was not a benign growth.At least I have plenty of venison.A damn buck knocked down my deer fence this morning,early.Now hanging in the Garage.One Nyclad from a 2" smith,barely twitched.
UB,
Välkommen, Välkommen!
In the face of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, European leaders had flirted with the idea of actually trying to change something. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said, "Laissez-faire, it's finished. The all-powerful market that is always right, it's finished." As a result, it is necessary to rebuild the entire global financial and monetary system from the bottom up, "the way it was done at Bretton Woods."
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown pointed out a deep contradiction of capitalist globalization: "We now have global financial markets, global corporations, global financial flows. But what we do not have is anything other than national and regional regulation and supervision." We need "a global way of supervising our financial system." He called for "very large and very radical changes," including turning the IMF into a "global central bank."
EHP, thanks for the reply. You are right that it is certainly a possibility, I'm just saying that I don't see how one man's musings automatically make it an inevitability. I need to see some auctions failing before I start freaking out over things like this. Of course, if the Fed really is printing money to buy long bonds then maybe I won't notice the problem? Bleah...
"It occurred to me that I might want to get a copy of ValueLine (just got a new ad in the mail)in a few months,...just to see all those downward sloping graphs. A collector's item. But maybe it might be better to wait a year to emphasize the point."
When I go to the library I always get a good laugh out of reading random articles from year old copies of finance magazines. It's like reading comedy.
Articles about why a recession was unlikely. How to profit from the commodity boom. Oil to $200. The turn-around specialists at Chrysler.
Ahh the good old days when all we were looking at was a mild recession and a regular bear market.
LOL, deer hunting with a 2" revolver. Maybe I should rethink buying long guns.
Tom Stone,
I kill deer with my car. Saves money on ammo. And acts as a tenderizer.
Oh, man. I already called CSI to find CSC, and they even sent someone from season 1. This year just sucks.
There are several old Ford and GM auto plants in the San Francisco Bay area that were converted to malls when they closed, Now when the big 3 finally go BK, GGP can then render the building useless....
"This year just sucks."
Teed up like a GWB joke. I'll leave that one alone.
Kona: Noooooooo! I didn't order a new world, did you?
I'm a tellin' ya rabbit, Yogi is going to get his world currency. What shall we call it... the Bimbo? The Dolor?
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¨°º¤ø¸BERNANKE ø¤º°¨
¸ø¤º°¨RULES!!!!``°º¤ø¸
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I'd hate to be called the Big 3. the women call be the "Big 11."
Andamoose: you could just run up and punch them in the kidney. Won't have to worry about biting down on something disagreeable later.
Good night now.
Elvis,
You know what they say... 3's a crowd...
Kona(How'd He get by my Filter) writes:
ø¸¸ø¤º°¨¸ø¤º°¨
¨°º¤ø¸BERNANKE ø¤º°¨
¸ø¤º°¨RULES!!!!``°º¤ø¸
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Impressive.
Asia markets no likey.
Kona, nice art. Is that supposed to represent helicopter blade wash?
{{{yawn}}}
Good night. Have a good snooze.
Good God!!! Seriously the IMF a global central bank.... sure I guess, the central banks of the nations have done a bang up job so far, lets just super size it..
Rob, great idea, maybe I can send it to him
Kona(How'd He get by my Filter) writes:
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¨°º¤ø¸HeliCopter ø¤º°¨
¸ø¤º°¨**Ben!!!!!``°º¤ø¸
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I had dinner with an old friend and his wife. We'd met in Portland in 2005 and I'd dicussed The Bubble and impending crash.
"I didn't understand what you were talking about then."
I asked how much he had lost and his face turned grim and gray.
"I stopped opening my statements"
He was nominally a millionaire in 2005.
"Is there a bottom to a black hole?"
Anything is possible in a black hole, but it's impossible to know what it is.
A friend of mine in his late fifties hooked up with GGP about two years ago. Sorry to see him on the streets so soon. Jobs aren't easy to come buy.
Well once again, I go to bed wondering, what in the hell will happen tomorrow?
Lefty, Why wonder? Look at this and know the future:
MACERICH CO Share Price Chart | MAC - Yahoo! Finance
Oops, now Tom Friedman may have to double up and get the new Playstation to serve as both his gaming console AND Blue-Ray capable device, instead of getting each unit individually. I guess all of us have to sacrifice at this moment in history.
Oh no, Flathead Friedman's heiress wife fortune is circling the drain.