Credit Crisis Indicators: Flight to Quality
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 11/20/2008 - 7:19am (35 comments)
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The yield on 3 month treasuries increased to 0.01% from 0.1054%. (worse).
OMG!
OMG!!
OMG!!11!
I'm now rather unnerved that we may see the bad things by the end of '08 than the Summer of '09. Is it going to get to the point that WE PAY Huncle Sam for the right to get some of our money back...?
Where's PCA to tell us how he played the bounce perfectly? Damn I wish I were as rich as him.
The yield on 3 month treasuries increased to 0.01% from 0.1054%.
Decreased?
Anyone got a link for 1-3 year treasuries? SHY is at a record number too.
Some nice symmetry on S&P charts this morning with 1 min bars
SKF's hit $259.54 - they were $110 on the 4th!
omg
That 13 week tbill link looks messed up. As in no activity, bzzzzzz, pull up the sheet & turn off the machines dead messed up.
"Anyone got a link for 1-3 year treasuries?"
Bloomberg.com:
Government Bonds
I'm holding fire until we get back over 820. If we ever get there, that should be a decent entry for SDS.
Thanks for the link, Austin Tex.
The long bond future, USZ8, is at an all time high, over 125, up over 2 points.
And I believe these are the lowest yields on the 30 since the 1930's. At least 20 years.
GMAC wants to become a bank holding company! Any deas about changing our names with a prefix ala 'comrade'?
Tilt
Yields down, prices up ... I think that's why he says increased.
SRS @ 253.14 Up 27.59 (12.23%)
SDS @ 120.50 Up 7.56 (6.69%)
SKF @ 252.62 Up 29.79 (13.37%)
FAZ @ 154.28 Up 24.98 (19.32%)
Do I see lost opportunities, a sign to go survival bear, or both?
Interesting graph plotting the Dow and the Baltic Dry Index at Minyanville:
http://tinyurl.com/6plh6x
^IRX flight to quality? More likely securities dumped at any price, settled, and funds directed to MMs that buy short-term AAA. Automated process, not real people making real decisions. Another manoevre to pump joe shmoe's cash to gov't usage unawares.
Heh. For some reason I thought the "wash rule" meant you couldn't buy a security until 30 days after you sold it. For this reason I have been hesitant to "take profits" and wait for another "entry point".
I just read the rule again and now I realize it only is applicable in cases of capital losses. Of course the IRS would have no problem with me making money and paying more in taxes!
I'd really like to understand how this market goes back up into the New Year. Even with an auto-industry bailout, every other industry is hurting.
I know PCA is probably and reading this... you're the Prince Alwaleed of CR!
little typo CR - should say the yeild on 3 month treasuries DECREASED to 0.01%
but bottom line, your work remains incredible
thanks
At what point would you just keep it in a checking account?
Disclaimer: I am very ignorant in this area.
So is the consensus that most of the intraday volatility is due to program trading? We are talking 3+% variations on the down in minutes.
Is this an indication that people don't trust good companies or that they don't trust the bond raters?
I picked a heck of a day to oversleep.
10-year yield is below 3.2%...
Wow.
YSLP, The wash rule does not prohibit repurchasing. But if you do repurchase it requires the inclusion of the prior loss in your new cost basis. Buy and sell all you want.
If you are "taking profits" you must have purchased years ago.
"Even with an auto-industry bailout, every other industry is hurting."
YLSP | 11.20.08 - 10:58 am | #
YLSP,
My company (trucking)is still busy. I have a friend with a auto/truck shop here in Sarasota and he is backed up about 3 weeks with repairs. Then again he has been in the same location for 25 years and has no debt...
Dealers are dead though...
Chris
Thanks for adding the long term corporates vs treasuries. This is what really matters now.
Thanks for thr RED reminder!!
^IRX: Basic Chart for 13-WEEK TREASURY BILL - Yahoo! Finance
A rate cut is pure retardation and what needs to happen now, is for mortgage rates to drop like a rock, but the disconnection between mortgage rates and prime rate and Fed rates as always remains a mystery related to shadow banking mechanisms like The Ownership Society and a government push to stimulate the economy. The goal today seems to be to destroy confidence and keep rates artificially high and to decrease the ability of government to back debts. Is this being done to screw over Obama?
The yield on 3 month treasuries increased to 0.01% from 0.1054%.
Yes, shouldn't that be decreased?
Bond yields go down with a flight to quality I thought.
"the Fed appears to be engaged in quantitative easing"
Really? Is there money being pushed into the system "unsterilized"? Is this a stealth policy?
In off season baseball news.....
The taxpayers semi pro team has been dispanded due to heavy fines.
The fines were levied because the team showed up to play.
dear god:
please keep the treasury market suppressed and yields low until my permanent financing sets at 235 BPS over the 5 year note.
PLEASE GOD.
You know I don't ask for much, but i'd really appreciate this one, seeing as we pro forma'ed a permanent financing rate of at least 6.75% and today we would be at 5.25% or lower!
Thats some serious bonus cash flow, God.
I promise I won't ask for anything else for christmas ever again, and in fact this can be my birthday present as well!
Please God, having tenants locked into increasing rental rates in a deflationary environment with really low interest rates is exactly what my business plans needs right now.
Sincerely,
DC1000
oops, God, you know I meant to say 325 BP over the five year not 235.
Make it happen, God!