I disagree. I'm thinking that the panic we saw yesterday and today was the result of people thinking that GM would honestly not get bailed out.
today's action will steady the market (for now).
we live in interesting times. it would seem that the thing to do would be to make sure that you have tons of CDS on your company, making you too big to fail regardless of your underlying business.
Those of us who saw the California Aerospace Industry destroyed by deliberate government policy are somewhat amused that when they came for you there was no one left to speak up.
I'm okay with no bailout as long as the car companies can get bankruptcy bridge loans. And if the Feds have to guarantee or grant those loans, so be it.
Washington, DC--The U.S. Department of the Treasury today designated three members of al-Shabaab, a violent and brutal extremist group in Somalia.
"Today's action targets three leaders of al-Shabaab, an al Qaida-linked terrorist group that uses lethal tactics to undermine peace and civil society in Somalia," said Adam Szubin, director of Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control.
snip
Identifying Information
AHMED ABDI AW-MOHAMED
AKAs:
Ahmed Abdi Aw Mohammed
Muktar Abdulrahim Abuzubair
Shaykh Mukhtar
Abu Zubeyr
Godani
Godane
DOB:
10 July 1977
POB:
Hargeysa, Somalia
Nationality:
Somali
Ahmed Abdi aw-Mohamed is the founder and a current leader of al-Shabaab. He claimed his group was responsible for the May 2007 assassination of a judge in Beledweyne, Somalia, and in March 2007 he coordinated attacks on Ethiopian troops in Somalia. Aw-Mohamed has also served as a conduit for financing to al-Shabaab.
the list continues in the release, short pirates, aaarrr!
It's a done deal. We are going the way of the Brits in the 60's and 70's at the taxpayers' expense. We are Terri Schiavo being kept alive on feeding tubes.
Yearning to Learn writes:
Old news. Next crisis please.
I disagree. I'm thinking that the panic we saw yesterday and today was the result of people thinking that GM would honestly not get bailed out.
today's action will steady the market (for now).
we live in interesting times. it would seem that the thing to do would be to make sure that you have tons of CDS on your company, making you too big to fail regardless of your underlying business.
Yearning to Learn | 11.20.08 - 12:53 pm | #
Okay, it is contained! Better?
IMHO, the best course of action would be for the federal government to let these businesses file chapter 11, but then guarantee the DIP loans so they don't end up in chapter 7. This would allow far more flexibility in restructuring. And by wiping out the existing shareholders, there isn't the same danger of Moral Hazard.
Anyone buying stocks based on the promise of action by the US Senate is a fool.
oh, I wholeheartedly agree.
I'm just saying that we have this interesting hostage situation going on.
we go from financial crisis to financial crisis. each one is heralded by a precipitous stock drop. then we have hearings and "solutions" presented, which are not implemented. then we have a terrifying drop and the "solution" is put in place in haste. then we have calm.
then we repeat again.
this isn't about BUYING stock based on what the Senate is doing... it's about SELLING stock based on what the Senate is doing.
It will pass, no DIP loan either. The glitch was to non-Tarp Big 3 on Shrub the Sociopath's watch. "Moral hazard" cried the fat, rosey cheeked, smelling of baby powder, white men in their expensive suits
As word of the bailout spread around Detroit, people flocked to stores to buy spray paint, Malatov cocktail ingredients and hyandguns to celebrate the new money. Elation and gunfire filled the air.
"Today's action targets three leaders of al-Shabaab, an al Qaida-linked terrorist group that uses lethal tactics to undermine peace and civil society in Somalia,"
is this true? I have no doubt the pirates are bad people, but are they really related to Al Qaeda.
because you know, there are a lot of bad people out there who are not linked to Al Qaeda... and some of them are (gasp) worse than Al Qaeda.
(like Cheney)
It will be interesting to see the big three failure dire predictions that are used to scare congress into throwing money into this hole. Any chance the bipartisan agreement will show the UAW the door?
Classic goverment. It will be a half-assed compromise action that does just enough to waste our money, but not enough to actually give the automakers any chance of long term success.
For Bush it sucks this didn't happen earlier. He could have had an immense amount of leverage to use against the Democrats to get the bailout passed. Now whatever he gets from them by not vetoing the bailout will be undone in short order by Obama.
we live in interesting times. it would seem that the thing to do would be to make sure that you have tons of CDS on your company, making you too big to fail regardless of your underlying business.
Yearning to Learn | 11.20.08 - 12:53 pm | #
~~~~~~~
yep, CDS extortion, which works until they unwind.
i'm not focusing much on these little twists and turns of US and foreign mega companies, mostly on the macroeconomic effects of the highly leveraged derivatives and sovereign debt ratio's. trying to forecast what happens post defaltionary spiral.
ideally we'd all take a piece of the puzzle and research them and report back...
Bottom Dweller writes:
What happened to the rally?
Everyone realized that the four senators mentioned in the auto bailout press release were the only senators that supported the bailout, and that more than 4 senators were needed to pass a bill.
OT--Subject: *SOMALI PIRATES APPLY TO BECOME BANK TO ACCESS TARP
*SOMALI PIRATES APPLY TO BECOME BANK TO ACCESS TARP
*PAULSON: TARP PIRATE EQUITY IS AN INVESTMENT, WILL PAY OFF
*KASHKARI SAYSSOMALI PIRATES ARE FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND
*Moodys upgrade Somali Pirates to AAA
*HUD SAYS SOMALI DHOW FORECLOSURE PROGRAM HAD VERY LOW
PARTIC PATION
*SOMALI PIRATES IN DISCUSSION TO ACQUIRE CITIBANK
*FED OFFICIALS: AGGRESSIVE EASING WOULD CUT SOMALI PIRATE RISK
*FED
AGREED OCT. 29 TO TAKEWHATEVER STEPS NEEDED FOR SOMALI
PIRATES
And by wiping out the existing shareholders, there isn't the same danger of Moral Hazard.
Existing shareholders have already been effectively wiped out. It's bondholders that need to be squashed - anybody lending these clowns money is de facto counting on a bailout and Lessons Need to be Learned.
November 19, 2008, Erin Burnet talking to Ed Williamson, a Miami car dealership owner on MSNBC:
Ed: Were probably losing at least 20% of our sales because we cant get anybody financed thats got a credit score less than about 650.
Erin: And that is you would say that people with credit scores below that should be able to finance, or is that another place of where maybe things got a little too lax in recent years, and maybe were simply returning to what might be the right way of gauging credit?
Ed (pauses for a moment): Actually, if you go back even as short a time as 4 months, we were able to get people financed that had credit scores down in the mid to high 500s I dont want to make the judgment whether or not those people should have gotten credit or not, but when we look at how our portfolio, particularly with GMAC, performs, it performs very well.
So if anyone gets bailed out do they have to fix what is broke that caused the need for bailing? If it is that CDS cannot be undermined is there a way that the CDS will be eliminated? What the heck is the end game other than an infinitely deep drain hole?
From Marketwatch: "Financials: Survival first - Barack Obama's most important task will be to save the financial-services industry"
WTF?!?! Useless bankers first?!??! The most friggin important task will be to save the MANUFACTURING BASE (at least what is left of it anyway), not to "rescue" bunch of overpaid incompetent idiots at Wall Street.
Ed's a dirty freaking pig and should be taken out and hung. I hate auto dealers...they are the scum of the earth. We should be able to buy factory direct without having to suffer these scum.
They are bailing out the wrong people again. They should give every farmer a new pickup truck. And every call girl a little convertable. This bailout should really be more targeted.
I honestly don't feel comfortable dealing in rumor. The MSM and weird blogs are using rumors to draw page views. CR is better than that. Reporting that a rumor has been reported is not an excuse.
I think this whole bad economy thing is being blown way out of proportion. Until I see business men in suits selling apples on the street corner, I'm going to remain skeptical.
Okay, now what are we gonna do to bailout the Oil companies. These "poor" guys have seen incredible demand destruction of their most valuable product. America, what can we do for Exxon/Mobil, Shell/BP?
It;s in the D's court and they won't let this fail. Bush on down to the bottom of the R's supported this $25B but not from TARP, from the re-tooling money already promised. D's wanted $50B total, re-tooling and "rescue" funds.
Canadaman writes:
this is a bipartisan agreement from senators from Michigan, Ohio, and one from Missouri.
They all have auto plants.
There are 100 senators that vote on this.
Thus my comment about the throwing under the bus of the California Aerospace Industry a generation ago. Tit-for-tat is a symmetrical arrangement. The "NO" votes for the auto bailout were cast in the 1980s.
It'll get passed. After our oversight committee people got their soundbites for their next election cycle, it'll get done. It might get vetoed, but why? That 25 billion was already slated for the dry hole, the only difference is when it is spent.
"Honey, I don't think helping the oil companies by showering with oil is working out like we had hoped."
"Why is that, honey?"
"Well, for starters, oil prices are still low. Peak Oil was just a rumor and we've got more oil in this world that dirt...I think we should switch tobathing in orange juice. Have you seen the price of OJ lately?"
There goes another $25 Billion into the black hole.
What'll that give'em, maybe 'til June '09?
Then what?
Another hat in the hand?
This is ridicuous. We can truly say it is official, we no longer have either a democracy or a free market system.
I don't know if that's good or bad, but the sooner we can discuss this and move on to socialism or whatever, the better.
Additonally, we need to force the dingbat CEOs of these entities that what handouts to lower their pay by 75%, minimum. You want socialism, you get all that comes with it, not a platinum parachute or lifestyle. I am not saying they need to live in squalor (sp?), however, no more jet around on weekends on the company tab. you know who you are, Mulally.
Shoveling $25B to the big three will not create demand, but it will employ workers to continue to make cars which cannot be sold, creating a huge glut, larger asset-price destruction, bigger money hole until the can cannot be kicked.
brilliant play to re-allocate green $25B to business-as-usual auto manufacturers.
burnside, I was attempting to play to the intellectual level of the mob. I didn't want to cum off as Greenspan. Greenspan-speak doesn't incite mobs...it puts them to sleep. Sadly, the days of mobs and vigilante justice are long past.
The reason the formerly Big 3 went to Congress instead of the capital markets for a mere $25b was because the capital markets are not totally brain dead.
Rob Dawg writes:
The reason the formerly Big 3 went to Congress instead of the capital markets for a mere $25b was because the capital markets are not totally brain dead
That's hard to wrap my mind around considering our current state of affairs...
Comrade Kristina writes:
Rob Dawg writes:
The reason the formerly Big 3 went to Congress instead of the capital markets for a mere $25b was because the capital markets are not totally brain dead.
That's hard to wrap my mind around considering our current state of affairs...
It's fairly easy using the "stupidest guy in the room" theory. The idea of giving $25b to the dinosaurs so they can survive an extinction event is not something a rational market would do. Thus the Big 3 are forced to go hat in hand to an irrational market. Congress.
Sign me up for that solution as long as the derivative & CDS pirates are also shut out - they have more to gain from a complete default & liquidation than anyone. Someone said on an earlier thread it was like allowing your surgeon to to take out life insurance on YOU just prior to open heart surgery - without your knowledge or consent.
Rob Dawg writes: No. I said California Aerospace. I didn't even say it wasn't deserved. I only assert it was deliberate.
Took out much of the military infrastructure in California, also, esp. in the Bay Area. The paranoid might have thought it was punishment for how the state was voting at the time of the "Reagan Revolution".
The results are with us today, in that the state went from getting a positive return on each Federal tax dollar, to getting back about 0.80.
No. I said California Aerospace. I didn't even say it wasn't deserved. I only assert it was deliberate.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 1:41 pm | #
It was NOT accidental - it was payback for YEARS of preferential 'log rolling' at the expense of others outside Cali - especially from Southern GOP senators (think MS, AL & SC - all benefited from the 'fall of S Cali defense industry)... my guess is the same exact thing will happen to Detroit & Wall Street - they will get their payback - eventually.
dryfly, good to hear from you... I have a question.
Since the foreign and domestic automakers share so many of the same suppliers, aren't the Southern Senators who appear to be willing to push the Detroit 3 over the cliff playing with fire? Esp. with JIT delivery, the shock-waves through the suppliers could really hurt the foreign automakers: some could be forced to shut-down for months if key suppliers fail. What am I missing here?
Aerospace, Auto , Defense all are in a race to the bottom, union busting, illegal immigrant hiring pursuit of the cheapest, I don't give a fuck workers they can find
Dryfly,
It would be so much easier if you could be even a little bit wrong every once in a while.
Dryfly and DCRogers have a lot of it. I would only add that it was overplayed and has cost the entire nation in many ways since. Even the 80¢ return will come back to haunt the lesser 49 states soon enough.
DCRogers writes:
some could be forced to shut-down for months if key suppliers fail. What am I missing here?
DCRogers | 11.20.08 - 1:52 pm
The massive amounts of automobile inventories that are building up on one another because the bottom fell out of the market in 30 days. See Long Beach dock story, decline in auto sales story, etc.
I don't think that there would be many bumps in the road if the supply chain shut down for a week or two to see if the glut can be passed or everything would just continue to build up.
Avoiding the Disinflation/Deflation angle of course...
But my last five consecutive cars over 9 years have been : Toyota, Infiniti, Acura, Honda, and Honda.
There's a trend there, but I will leave the macro stuff to Faith Popcorn and that Black Swan dude.
Missing the Point | 11.20.08 - 1:47 pm | #
Why on Glods green earth do you need five different cars over nine years. The answer obviously is that you don't. With savvy consumers like you around it's no wonder the auto industry got used to artificially high production levels.
Mish Shedlock, Aubie Baltic with others were on radio last night...There is not an answer....Our goverment don't know what the hell they are doing...I came away with the feeling that it(US) should be put to sleep for a while, while the brain chemist figure's out which doseage the addict has got to take to level off the systems from cliff diving into a 50 year cycle of hell.
lurker writes:
Wow, the bail out hope rally lasted about as long as a romp with a hooker, and now I also feel cheap, dirty, and I m out some cash...
lurker | 11.20.08 - 1:42 pm |
Could be worse, you could be out of a job afterward.
You Canadians think of almost everything! Like Tim Hortons..., wish they were here in MN.
Yeah, it's a lot of autos, so I see your leap in logic. But none of them were purchased new, one was a three year lease, and three went to my three college age kids. All still on the road. Daily.
I won't be buying a car for a long time, and when I do, I think the Big Three will probably refer to the branches of the U.S. Socialist govt., not automakers.
Will not bailing out auto makers cause 3 mil job loses?
It not like 3/10 buyers who prefer GM will now stop buying cars. They will just buy some other car. Other car manufacturers will have to expand operations.
It's one thing to be suffering because demand is falling, another because you can't get the day to day credit required to meet the demand that remains.
The latter is the situation facing Detroit. Downsizing is inevitable, even with the loan, but, without the loan, the US auto industry faces a collapse so severe that it may never recover.
Someone else can make the cars, you say? Sure, if you want them to be made exclusively by Japanese, Koreans, Brazilians and Mexicans, resulting in the preservation of their industrial capacity at our expense. There is a value in terms of consumption and social stability by having well paying jobs for semi-skilled and skilled workers.
I just hope the gov't gets a boatload of warrants as part of the deal. That would effectively dilute the existing shareholders, and thus help address the moral hazard problems of this. Other stings should include lowering top exec salaries, sale of corporate jets, prohibitions on dividends (incl preferred) until the loan are repaid in full. In effect, make ti a Chapter 11 without calling it a chapter 11. This would help stem the decline in sales which would occur in a full chapter 11 as people feared the company would no longer be around to service the warranties and would not trigger CDS's. Those are my 2 big concerns about a real Chapter 11. The first could cause chapter 11 to rapidly turn into a chapter 7, which would be a full scale disaster. The second would cause yet more havoc in the financial system.
No bailout and no chapter 11. These are businesses that are not needed. Take a fraction of this money and give it to some enterpreneurs. They can buy whatever is useful from the scap heap and build an industry that produces what can be sold.
Richard Estes,
You don't think Detroit is suffering due to a reduction in demand for their cars?
As far as who will be making the cars, almost all Japanese brand cars in the US are assembled in the US.
Richard Estes said: Someone else can make the cars, you say? Sure, if you want them to be made exclusively by Japanese, Koreans, Brazilians and Mexicans, resulting in the preservation of their industrial capacity at our expense. There is a value in terms of consumption and social stability by having well paying jobs for semi-skilled and skilled workers.
How many of those Japanese and Korean cars are made in America by Americans?
My 05 Ford Explorer has an engine made in Germany and a transmission made in Canada.
"Someone else can make the cars, you say? Sure, if you want them to be made exclusively by Japanese, Koreans, Brazilians and Mexicans, resulting in the preservation of their industrial capacity at our expense. There is a value in terms of consumption and social stability by having well paying jobs for semi-skilled and skilled workers."
I agree with this completely, but so what? I find it hard to believe that US politicians would permit the trashing of so much industrial capacity, not only plant but institutional knowledge and worker/engineer skills. I think it's unreasonable and self-destructive. I don't know what the social and economic consequences might be, but surely they won't be good.
So, do you want to do virtual test drives like a video game?
Awfully expensive test drives, wouldn't you say? Of course, my comments were tongue in cheek, but I really do hate dealers. I would rather it be an extension of the manufacturer. I'm loyal to Honda because Honda's loyal to me, as a customer. The Dealer almost loses me every time, and they do not represent Honda, or Honda's interests and operating philosophy well.
I find it hard to believe that US politicians would permit the trashing of so much industrial capacity, not only plant but institutional knowledge and worker/engineer skills.
I doubt many politicians think about those issues. Jobs, jobs, jobs - yes. Industrial policy - against the ideology/orthodoxy.
I want to see Obama's AG go after Mozillo, Prince, O'Neil, Fuld, Lewis, and the rest of the crooks who mades hundreds of billions in ill-gotten profits and bonuses - while they left their companies, the economy, borrowers, and stockholders in the shitter.
Let's go peel Mozilo's fake tan right off his hide!
All the Big 3 needs to do is to reintroduce the K car, Pinto, and the Corvair. No bailout would be needed.
So close...yet
Old news. Next crisis please.
Levin giving away our money!
I wish I could say I was surprised.
is there anybody out there who seriously thought that GM wouldn't get it's bailout?
Are they going to specifically name the Automakers or are HOG, WGO now going to become automobile holding companies?
Sound and fury, signifying nothing.
Agree with FFDIC.
Detroit homes to go from 2k to 4k overnite!
Levin giving away our KIDS money!
crispy&cole | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 12:50 pm | #
There, fixed it for you.
FWIW:
someone smarter than me figured out that the issue with GM is not GM, but the CDS on its bonds.
the govt learned from Lehman.
yah [/snark]
Detriot mobs riot after bailout victory.
Without the $25b in retooling assistance the Chinese won't pay top dollar for the machine tools when they bid at the bk auction.
I for one faxed all the senators yesterday opposing a bailout and suggest anyone else who feels the same to do so as well.
There, fixed it for you.
Yeah, our money is long gone.
Dummies are probably buying big 3 stocks right now.
Message: You're going to lose your shirt.
Correction: You're going to lose your borrowed shirt.
/that is all
wow. SRS down $50 from intraday high...
Old news. Next crisis please.
I disagree. I'm thinking that the panic we saw yesterday and today was the result of people thinking that GM would honestly not get bailed out.
today's action will steady the market (for now).
we live in interesting times. it would seem that the thing to do would be to make sure that you have tons of CDS on your company, making you too big to fail regardless of your underlying business.
Thanks for the tip. Picked up 500 shares of F.
Those of us who saw the California Aerospace Industry destroyed by deliberate government policy are somewhat amused that when they came for you there was no one left to speak up.
I'm okay with no bailout as long as the car companies can get bankruptcy bridge loans. And if the Feds have to guarantee or grant those loans, so be it.
worth listening too again panic in detroit
Oh how I yearn to hear Bubbles whisper those two little words just one more time..."Irrational Exuberance"...
SOMALI PIRATES APPLAUD THE BAILOUT PLAN. WILL CONSIDER MOVING TO LAND BASE OPERATION.
What does it feel like when your balz are in a vice with a ton of leverage on the handle ?
I disagree. I'm thinking that the panic we saw yesterday and today was the result of people thinking that GM would honestly not get bailed out.
Anyone buying stocks based on the promise of action by the US Senate is a fool.
Ministry of Truth writes:
I for one faxed all the senators yesterday opposing a bailout and suggest anyone else who feels the same to do so as well.
What's the point? The bank bailout passed in the teeth of 150-to-1 constituent opposition.
Oh how I yearn to hear Bubbles whisper those two little words just one more time..."Irrational Exuberance"...
no way, only I can yearn. to learn of course.
that said, it's been some time now, so I feel it appropriate to mention that I am still a willing counterparty to Lehman Bros across all businesses.
OT- somali pirates and terrorists now targeted by treasury, new press release -
HP-1283: Treasury Targets Somali Terrorists
Treasury Targets Somali Terrorists
Washington, DC--The U.S. Department of the Treasury today designated three members of al-Shabaab, a violent and brutal extremist group in Somalia.
"Today's action targets three leaders of al-Shabaab, an al Qaida-linked terrorist group that uses lethal tactics to undermine peace and civil society in Somalia," said Adam Szubin, director of Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control.
snip
Identifying Information
AHMED ABDI AW-MOHAMED
AKAs:
Ahmed Abdi Aw Mohammed
Muktar Abdulrahim Abuzubair
Shaykh Mukhtar
Abu Zubeyr
Godani
Godane
DOB:
10 July 1977
POB:
Hargeysa, Somalia
Nationality:
Somali
Ahmed Abdi aw-Mohamed is the founder and a current leader of al-Shabaab. He claimed his group was responsible for the May 2007 assassination of a judge in Beledweyne, Somalia, and in March 2007 he coordinated attacks on Ethiopian troops in Somalia. Aw-Mohamed has also served as a conduit for financing to al-Shabaab.
the list continues in the release, short pirates, aaarrr!
It's a done deal. We are going the way of the Brits in the 60's and 70's at the taxpayers' expense. We are Terri Schiavo being kept alive on feeding tubes.
tarp it and ship it.
Is it confirmed that they avoid CH. 11?
Yearning to Learn writes:
Old news. Next crisis please.
I disagree. I'm thinking that the panic we saw yesterday and today was the result of people thinking that GM would honestly not get bailed out.
today's action will steady the market (for now).
we live in interesting times. it would seem that the thing to do would be to make sure that you have tons of CDS on your company, making you too big to fail regardless of your underlying business.
Yearning to Learn | 11.20.08 - 12:53 pm | #
Okay, it is contained! Better?
IMHO, the best course of action would be for the federal government to let these businesses file chapter 11, but then guarantee the DIP loans so they don't end up in chapter 7. This would allow far more flexibility in restructuring. And by wiping out the existing shareholders, there isn't the same danger of Moral Hazard.
Anyone buying stocks based on the promise of action by the US Senate is a fool.
oh, I wholeheartedly agree.
I'm just saying that we have this interesting hostage situation going on.
we go from financial crisis to financial crisis. each one is heralded by a precipitous stock drop. then we have hearings and "solutions" presented, which are not implemented. then we have a terrifying drop and the "solution" is put in place in haste. then we have calm.
then we repeat again.
this isn't about BUYING stock based on what the Senate is doing... it's about SELLING stock based on what the Senate is doing.
the best course of action would be for the federal government to let these businesses file chapter 11, but then guarantee the DIP loans
Which makes this the least likely outcome.
It will pass, no DIP loan either. The glitch was to non-Tarp Big 3 on Shrub the Sociopath's watch. "Moral hazard" cried the fat, rosey cheeked, smelling of baby powder, white men in their expensive suits
As word of the bailout spread around Detroit, people flocked to stores to buy spray paint, Malatov cocktail ingredients and hyandguns to celebrate the new money. Elation and gunfire filled the air.
This bailout will get the same reaction as the last bailout. Buy the rumor, sell the news.
So please please please buy with both hands; We need a new short entry point.
Anyone notice that GS had a 4 as its leading digit at its low today ? That's an event a DC bailout is made of!
Who is going to do the important work of finishing the bailout?,...aka buying the vehicles?
Max writes:
the best course of action would be for the federal government to let these businesses file chapter 11, but then guarantee the DIP loans
Only if that same action was applied to Wall St. It wasn't so it isn't
"Today's action targets three leaders of al-Shabaab, an al Qaida-linked terrorist group that uses lethal tactics to undermine peace and civil society in Somalia,"
is this true? I have no doubt the pirates are bad people, but are they really related to Al Qaeda.
because you know, there are a lot of bad people out there who are not linked to Al Qaeda... and some of them are (gasp) worse than Al Qaeda.
(like Cheney)
The agreement news was leaked to dupe the suckers in to buying.
That is how the Americans taught us to do it in a casino.
What kind of DIP is it? French Onion is my favorite.
Dancing on a volcano...
Somali pirate chief rumored to be candidate for head of Homeland Security.
Yearning: Are you absolutely SURE that Cheney isn't linked to Al Qaeda?
The agreement news was leaked to dupe the suckers in to buying.
of course. this is why I disagree that we can move onto the next crisis yet.
this crisis doesn't end until the bailout funds are dispensed.
In other news, the Vandals and Visigoths are contained and the Huns are not going to be a problem after all.
Yearning: Are you absolutely SURE that Cheney isn't linked to Al Qaeda?
Hmm... define "linked"
that said, please disregard the Cheney line... I instantly regretted putting in a political quip as I don't want to derail this otherwise good thread.
It will be interesting to see the big three failure dire predictions that are used to scare congress into throwing money into this hole. Any chance the bipartisan agreement will show the UAW the door?
Now it seems like I recall somebody was ridiculed last night for their decision to buy a bit of F at the close yesterday.
Can't remember who it was off hand...
Classic goverment. It will be a half-assed compromise action that does just enough to waste our money, but not enough to actually give the automakers any chance of long term success.
For Bush it sucks this didn't happen earlier. He could have had an immense amount of leverage to use against the Democrats to get the bailout passed. Now whatever he gets from them by not vetoing the bailout will be undone in short order by Obama.
I wonder if he goes nuclear and vetoes it anyway?
serf,
agreed, but don't forget they will have to grease this deal with god knows what.
we live in interesting times. it would seem that the thing to do would be to make sure that you have tons of CDS on your company, making you too big to fail regardless of your underlying business.
Yearning to Learn | 11.20.08 - 12:53 pm | #
~~~~~~~
yep, CDS extortion, which works until they unwind.
i'm not focusing much on these little twists and turns of US and foreign mega companies, mostly on the macroeconomic effects of the highly leveraged derivatives and sovereign debt ratio's. trying to forecast what happens post defaltionary spiral.
ideally we'd all take a piece of the puzzle and research them and report back...
I wonder if he goes nuclear and vetoes it anyway?
Captain Fish (Paper Pusher) | 11.20.08 - 1:05 pm | #
Don't you mean "nukular"?
Same chumps in charge in Detroit = same old same old.
Every business owner in America should be protesting and asking for a hand out too...........
What happened to the rally?
shortest.
rally.
ever.
Upon hearing the new, employees at three auto plants in Michigan rolled over their newly built cars and set them on fire to celebrate.
I want a new haloscan filter for hot stock tips. ac and rich are going to be on my "included" list.
One of you smart programmers write that one up.
Bottom Dweller writes:
What happened to the rally?
Everyone realized that the four senators mentioned in the auto bailout press release were the only senators that supported the bailout, and that more than 4 senators were needed to pass a bill.
OT--Subject: *SOMALI PIRATES APPLY TO BECOME BANK TO ACCESS TARP
*SOMALI PIRATES APPLY TO BECOME BANK TO ACCESS TARP
*PAULSON: TARP PIRATE EQUITY IS AN INVESTMENT, WILL PAY OFF
*KASHKARI SAYSSOMALI PIRATES ARE FUNDAMENTALLY SOUND
*Moodys upgrade Somali Pirates to AAA
*HUD SAYS SOMALI DHOW FORECLOSURE PROGRAM HAD VERY LOW
PARTIC PATION
*SOMALI PIRATES IN DISCUSSION TO ACQUIRE CITIBANK
*FED OFFICIALS: AGGRESSIVE EASING WOULD CUT SOMALI PIRATE RISK
*FED
AGREED OCT. 29 TO TAKEWHATEVER STEPS NEEDED FOR SOMALI
PIRATES
blue collar workers making $32.00/hr union scale with breaks and benifits
Somali pirates release cargo ships, restructure as thrifts
An elated Rick Wagoner punched Sen. Carl Levin in the face and took his wallet to celebrate.
And by wiping out the existing shareholders, there isn't the same danger of Moral Hazard.
Existing shareholders have already been effectively wiped out. It's bondholders that need to be squashed - anybody lending these clowns money is de facto counting on a bailout and Lessons Need to be Learned.
blue collar workers making $32.00/hr union scale with breaks and benifits
Is there a problem with that?
It's "benefits", btw.
November 19, 2008, Erin Burnet talking to Ed Williamson, a Miami car dealership owner on MSNBC:
Ed: Were probably losing at least 20% of our sales because we cant get anybody financed thats got a credit score less than about 650.
Erin: And that is you would say that people with credit scores below that should be able to finance, or is that another place of where maybe things got a little too lax in recent years, and maybe were simply returning to what might be the right way of gauging credit?
Ed (pauses for a moment): Actually, if you go back even as short a time as 4 months, we were able to get people financed that had credit scores down in the mid to high 500s I dont want to make the judgment whether or not those people should have gotten credit or not, but when we look at how our portfolio, particularly with GMAC, performs, it performs very well.
Buying F on this news is like picking up nickels on a road with an out-of-control F-350 Crew Cab screaming down the hill...
Keep 'em coming Elvis. Just remember to not cross that line...
...and then the reality of the situation set in....
So if anyone gets bailed out do they have to fix what is broke that caused the need for bailing? If it is that CDS cannot be undermined is there a way that the CDS will be eliminated? What the heck is the end game other than an infinitely deep drain hole?
Just saw 3 private planes take off
From Marketwatch: "Financials: Survival first - Barack Obama's most important task will be to save the financial-services industry"
WTF?!?! Useless bankers first?!??! The most friggin important task will be to save the MANUFACTURING BASE (at least what is left of it anyway), not to "rescue" bunch of overpaid incompetent idiots at Wall Street.
Ed's a dirty freaking pig and should be taken out and hung. I hate auto dealers...they are the scum of the earth. We should be able to buy factory direct without having to suffer these scum.
Bottom Dweller writes:
What happened to the rally?
Debt
HJ writes:
Just saw 3 private planes take off
Actually, I think they are publically-owned now.
They are bailing out the wrong people again. They should give every farmer a new pickup truck. And every call girl a little convertable. This bailout should really be more targeted.
Detriot mobs riot after bailout victory.
Yes, but torching houses was one of your solutions.
DCRogers writes:
Buying F on this news is like picking up nickels on a road with an out-of-control F-350 Crew Cab screaming down the hill...
No guts, no glory, though, right? And if I can't afford to lose $600 I should not be in the market.
HJ writes:
Just saw 3 private planes take off
Was Ben's helicopter behind them?
"Yes, but torching houses was one of your solutions.
Charles Kiting"
I prefer the more gentrified technique of using a bulldozer. However, rioting in sheer joy, has its positive side effects.
I honestly don't feel comfortable dealing in rumor. The MSM and weird blogs are using rumors to draw page views. CR is better than that. Reporting that a rumor has been reported is not an excuse.
Reporting that a rumor has been reported is not an excuse.
An email from a Senate staffer is not a rumor
this is a bipartisan agreement from senators from Michigan, Ohio, and one from Missouri.
They all have auto plants.
There are 100 senators that vote on this.
The rally faded cause this is a desperate attempt that won't pass IMO
An email from a Senate staffer is not a rumor
Anonymous | 11.20.08 - 1:17 pm
is not a done deal either...
Waxman beats Dingell
Greenies beat Detroit
Deal is dead
Then news of agreement is leaked
GM and Ford up
News reported
More up
Now news is $25B previously authorized was tied to Greens but Green tie now to be cut
Go back and reread
(if you dont know who the sucker is at the table, it is ..)
I think this whole bad economy thing is being blown way out of proportion. Until I see business men in suits selling apples on the street corner, I'm going to remain skeptical.
Anonymous writes: An email from a Senate staffer is not a rumor
For me, anything with no linky counts as a rumor (or an opinion).
"is not a done deal either...
HJ"
Don't tell the rioters that or their joy might change to anger and then things could get ugly.
One Trillion in GM swaps can make for an interesting chat behind closed doors.
Okay, now what are we gonna do to bailout the Oil companies. These "poor" guys have seen incredible demand destruction of their most valuable product. America, what can we do for Exxon/Mobil, Shell/BP?
I dont want to make the judgment whether or not those people should have gotten credit or not,
Of course you don't, it ain't your money being lent. To be expected from the scum that call themselves car dealers.
An email from a Senate staffer is not a rumor
Anonymous
You aren't very experienced at how the congress works, that's obvious.
"America, what can we do for Exxon/Mobil, Shell/BP?
Bottom Dweller"
Start showering with crude oil?
Playing at Poker Stars writes:
Now news is $25B previously authorized was tied to Greens but Green tie now to be cut
Oh, thank my blessed oil barrels, people are still gonna need Big Oil to fuel 'em.
I'm thinking we top out around 830 on SPX just before the 2:00 press conference. Then we tank.
It;s in the D's court and they won't let this fail. Bush on down to the bottom of the R's supported this $25B but not from TARP, from the re-tooling money already promised. D's wanted $50B total, re-tooling and "rescue" funds.
Start showering with crude oil?
Fluoridated gasoline?
Even with 50b how long will they survive without making drastic changes?
Hmmmm...how does Congress work?
Just ask any prostitute.
Canadaman writes:
this is a bipartisan agreement from senators from Michigan, Ohio, and one from Missouri.
They all have auto plants.
There are 100 senators that vote on this.
Thus my comment about the throwing under the bus of the California Aerospace Industry a generation ago. Tit-for-tat is a symmetrical arrangement. The "NO" votes for the auto bailout were cast in the 1980s.
It'll get passed. After our oversight committee people got their soundbites for their next election cycle, it'll get done. It might get vetoed, but why? That 25 billion was already slated for the dry hole, the only difference is when it is spent.
Morocco, that's hanged - v important distinction. ;0)
"Honey, I don't think helping the oil companies by showering with oil is working out like we had hoped."
"Why is that, honey?"
"Well, for starters, oil prices are still low. Peak Oil was just a rumor and we've got more oil in this world that dirt...I think we should switch tobathing in orange juice. Have you seen the price of OJ lately?"
CNBC: Senate deal non-starter in House..
Dumped my F.
CNBC: Senate deal non-starter in House
Will somebody please save the children (the D3)?!?!
What a waste of money!
There goes another $25 Billion into the black hole.
What'll that give'em, maybe 'til June '09?
Then what?
Another hat in the hand?
This is ridicuous. We can truly say it is official, we no longer have either a democracy or a free market system.
I don't know if that's good or bad, but the sooner we can discuss this and move on to socialism or whatever, the better.
Additonally, we need to force the dingbat CEOs of these entities that what handouts to lower their pay by 75%, minimum. You want socialism, you get all that comes with it, not a platinum parachute or lifestyle. I am not saying they need to live in squalor (sp?), however, no more jet around on weekends on the company tab. you know who you are, Mulally.
Somali pirates pocket at least $1.67 million in ransom payments
Jack Sparrow was born too soon...
At least 15 rockets have struck populated areas in Pakistan's Bannu district; origin unknown; no word on damage, casualties - local tv.
Twitter / ?
Shoveling $25B to the big three will not create demand, but it will employ workers to continue to make cars which cannot be sold, creating a huge glut, larger asset-price destruction, bigger money hole until the can cannot be kicked.
brilliant play to re-allocate green $25B to business-as-usual auto manufacturers.
Wow the movement on GM and F in the last hour was sick. Jesus.
burnside, I was attempting to play to the intellectual level of the mob. I didn't want to cum off as Greenspan. Greenspan-speak doesn't incite mobs...it puts them to sleep. Sadly, the days of mobs and vigilante justice are long past.
At least 15 rockets have struck populated areas in Pakistan's Bannu district
So Al Queda is against the D3 Bailout?
$25b for 30 minutes of pleasure. Please come again soon.
Isn't OJ in jail?
The reason the formerly Big 3 went to Congress instead of the capital markets for a mere $25b was because the capital markets are not totally brain dead.
"HJ writes:
At least 15 rockets have struck populated areas in Pakistan's Bannu district;"
Estes rockets. Class project. Don't try to get our focus off America's problems.
Rob Dawg writes:
The reason the formerly Big 3 went to Congress instead of the capital markets for a mere $25b was because the capital markets are not totally brain dead
That's hard to wrap my mind around considering our current state of affairs...
Rob Dawg,
Other than the end of the Cold War, how do you feel the aerospace industry was tossed under the bus?
MB: I'm not really a grammar nazi. Like you, all in fun.
Rob Dawg writes:
An email from a Senate staffer is not a rumor
Anonymous
You aren't very experienced at how the congress works, that's obvious.
Maybe not, Mr. Speaker, but I do know the difference between a rumor and a public release of a Senate staffera email.
but you're correct, of course, burnside. i have no compulsion to aid auto dealers in their obvious lack of endowment.
Estes rockets. Class project. Don't try to get our focus off America's problems.
Elvis
Hey, i'm not a politician
REUTERS REPORTS IRANIAN PIRATES STRONGLY OPPOSED TO SOMALI PIRATES BAILOUT PLAN
I thought the Capital Markets and Congress were one and the same. If they weren't before, they are now.
Comrade Kristina writes:
Rob Dawg writes:
The reason the formerly Big 3 went to Congress instead of the capital markets for a mere $25b was because the capital markets are not totally brain dead.
That's hard to wrap my mind around considering our current state of affairs...
It's fairly easy using the "stupidest guy in the room" theory. The idea of giving $25b to the dinosaurs so they can survive an extinction event is not something a rational market would do. Thus the Big 3 are forced to go hat in hand to an irrational market. Congress.
Dow is puzzled, just like me...
Captain Fish (Paper Pusher) writes:
Rob Dawg,
Other than the end of the Cold War, how do you feel the aerospace industry was tossed under the bus?
Because he was not a NIMBY screaming Socialism when govt. subsidizing of the aerospace industry was the question.
girlbear writes:
Somali pirates pocket at least $1.67 million in ransom payments
Jack Sparrow was born too soon...
girlbear | 11.20.08 - 1:27 pm | #
Adjusting for inflation, Jack was okay. See, that money is really only worth 2 golds coins in Jack's time. Mere pocket change for a man like him.
CNBC says auto deal non starter for the House
Google Finance is priceless atm.
"Stocks Wipe Slate Clean, Press Higher On Solid Volume" it shrieks, with a rack of freshly red numbers next to it.
i>Anonymous writes:
Rob Dawg writes:
An email from a Senate staffer is not a rumor
Anonymous
You aren't very experienced at how the congress works, that's obvious.
Maybe not, Mr. Speaker, but I do know the difference between a rumor and a public release of a Senate staffera email.
Senate staffer == cannon fodder.
Thus confirming your naivete. And don't call me "Mr. Speaker" I work for a living.
Yeah, I'm Mr. Speaker.
Breaking news: As part of today's job report, the newly unemployed will now have plenty of time to go shopping for a new car.
Thus confirming your naivete. And don't call me "Mr. Speaker" I work for a living.
Naivete is not the issue. Defininition of a rumor is the issue, Mr.Spea.. er Rob
Captain Fish (Paper Pusher) writes:
Rob Dawg,
Other than the end of the Cold War, how do you feel the aerospace industry was tossed under the bus?
No. I said California Aerospace. I didn't even say it wasn't deserved. I only assert it was deliberate.
Wow, the bail out hope rally lasted about as long as a romp with a hooker, and now I also feel cheap, dirty, and I m out some cash...
lurker, now you know what it feels like to be a Congress Critter...except the out of cash part.
Is it just me, or does the 5 minute chart on GM look like a middle-finger formation?
@nirad | 11.20.08 - 12:56 pm | #
Sign me up for that solution as long as the derivative & CDS pirates are also shut out - they have more to gain from a complete default & liquidation than anyone. Someone said on an earlier thread it was like allowing your surgeon to to take out life insurance on YOU just prior to open heart surgery - without your knowledge or consent.
Rob Dawg writes: No. I said California Aerospace. I didn't even say it wasn't deserved. I only assert it was deliberate.
Took out much of the military infrastructure in California, also, esp. in the Bay Area. The paranoid might have thought it was punishment for how the state was voting at the time of the "Reagan Revolution".
The results are with us today, in that the state went from getting a positive return on each Federal tax dollar, to getting back about 0.80.
Great news for Detroit, I guess.
But my last five consecutive cars over 9 years have been : Toyota, Infiniti, Acura, Honda, and Honda.
There's a trend there, but I will leave the macro stuff to Faith Popcorn and that Black Swan dude.
No. I said California Aerospace. I didn't even say it wasn't deserved. I only assert it was deliberate.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 1:41 pm | #
It was NOT accidental - it was payback for YEARS of preferential 'log rolling' at the expense of others outside Cali - especially from Southern GOP senators (think MS, AL & SC - all benefited from the 'fall of S Cali defense industry)... my guess is the same exact thing will happen to Detroit & Wall Street - they will get their payback - eventually.
dryfly, good to hear from you... I have a question.
Since the foreign and domestic automakers share so many of the same suppliers, aren't the Southern Senators who appear to be willing to push the Detroit 3 over the cliff playing with fire? Esp. with JIT delivery, the shock-waves through the suppliers could really hurt the foreign automakers: some could be forced to shut-down for months if key suppliers fail. What am I missing here?
Aerospace, Auto , Defense all are in a race to the bottom, union busting, illegal immigrant hiring pursuit of the cheapest, I don't give a fuck workers they can find
The Alabama senators are gonna destroy the bill.
They done sold their souls to Toyota and Honda - demolishing Michigan is their greatest desire.
Dryfly,
It would be so much easier if you could be even a little bit wrong every once in a while.
Dryfly and DCRogers have a lot of it. I would only add that it was overplayed and has cost the entire nation in many ways since. Even the 80¢ return will come back to haunt the lesser 49 states soon enough.
DCRogers writes:
some could be forced to shut-down for months if key suppliers fail. What am I missing here?
DCRogers | 11.20.08 - 1:52 pm
The massive amounts of automobile inventories that are building up on one another because the bottom fell out of the market in 30 days. See Long Beach dock story, decline in auto sales story, etc.
I don't think that there would be many bumps in the road if the supply chain shut down for a week or two to see if the glut can be passed or everything would just continue to build up.
Avoiding the Disinflation/Deflation angle of course...
.
Great news for Detroit, I guess.
But my last five consecutive cars over 9 years have been : Toyota, Infiniti, Acura, Honda, and Honda.
There's a trend there, but I will leave the macro stuff to Faith Popcorn and that Black Swan dude.
Missing the Point | 11.20.08 - 1:47 pm | #
Why on Glods green earth do you need five different cars over nine years. The answer obviously is that you don't. With savvy consumers like you around it's no wonder the auto industry got used to artificially high production levels.
[We should be able to buy factory direct without having to suffer these scum.
Morocco Bama ]
So, do you want to do virtual test drives like a video game?
I'm still feeling the 3:51 pm massacre.
Mish Shedlock, Aubie Baltic with others were on radio last night...There is not an answer....Our goverment don't know what the hell they are doing...I came away with the feeling that it(US) should be put to sleep for a while, while the brain chemist figure's out which doseage the addict has got to take to level off the systems from cliff diving into a 50 year cycle of hell.
lurker writes:
Wow, the bail out hope rally lasted about as long as a romp with a hooker, and now I also feel cheap, dirty, and I m out some cash...
lurker | 11.20.08 - 1:42 pm |
Could be worse, you could be out of a job afterward.
/Spitzer'd
You Canadians think of almost everything! Like Tim Hortons..., wish they were here in MN.
Yeah, it's a lot of autos, so I see your leap in logic. But none of them were purchased new, one was a three year lease, and three went to my three college age kids. All still on the road. Daily.
I won't be buying a car for a long time, and when I do, I think the Big Three will probably refer to the branches of the U.S. Socialist govt., not automakers.
Will not bailing out auto makers cause 3 mil job loses?
It not like 3/10 buyers who prefer GM will now stop buying cars. They will just buy some other car. Other car manufacturers will have to expand operations.
if the automakers were nationalized, would labour and the dealers all become civil servants?
Somali pirates demand $25 million ransom for oil super-tanker
Thank God this money isn't getting into the hands of innovative medical instruments or semiconductor companies.
J.P.Morgan plans to cut 10% (3K) of investment bank staff: report
It's one thing to be suffering because demand is falling, another because you can't get the day to day credit required to meet the demand that remains.
The latter is the situation facing Detroit. Downsizing is inevitable, even with the loan, but, without the loan, the US auto industry faces a collapse so severe that it may never recover.
Someone else can make the cars, you say? Sure, if you want them to be made exclusively by Japanese, Koreans, Brazilians and Mexicans, resulting in the preservation of their industrial capacity at our expense. There is a value in terms of consumption and social stability by having well paying jobs for semi-skilled and skilled workers.
I just hope the gov't gets a boatload of warrants as part of the deal. That would effectively dilute the existing shareholders, and thus help address the moral hazard problems of this. Other stings should include lowering top exec salaries, sale of corporate jets, prohibitions on dividends (incl preferred) until the loan are repaid in full. In effect, make ti a Chapter 11 without calling it a chapter 11. This would help stem the decline in sales which would occur in a full chapter 11 as people feared the company would no longer be around to service the warranties and would not trigger CDS's. Those are my 2 big concerns about a real Chapter 11. The first could cause chapter 11 to rapidly turn into a chapter 7, which would be a full scale disaster. The second would cause yet more havoc in the financial system.
Pardners,
I love this thread..please don't stop!
Giddyup!
Bailing out the BIG 3, will collapse the country and break the buck at Treasury!
No bailout and no chapter 11. These are businesses that are not needed. Take a fraction of this money and give it to some enterpreneurs. They can buy whatever is useful from the scap heap and build an industry that produces what can be sold.
so a tax and spend democratic congress just said no to a bailout in their power base after Bushie never met a bailout he didn't like
love the irony
Richard Estes,
You don't think Detroit is suffering due to a reduction in demand for their cars?
As far as who will be making the cars, almost all Japanese brand cars in the US are assembled in the US.
Richard Estes said: Someone else can make the cars, you say? Sure, if you want them to be made exclusively by Japanese, Koreans, Brazilians and Mexicans, resulting in the preservation of their industrial capacity at our expense. There is a value in terms of consumption and social stability by having well paying jobs for semi-skilled and skilled workers.
How many of those Japanese and Korean cars are made in America by Americans?
My 05 Ford Explorer has an engine made in Germany and a transmission made in Canada.
cd
"Someone else can make the cars, you say? Sure, if you want them to be made exclusively by Japanese, Koreans, Brazilians and Mexicans, resulting in the preservation of their industrial capacity at our expense. There is a value in terms of consumption and social stability by having well paying jobs for semi-skilled and skilled workers."
I agree with this completely, but so what? I find it hard to believe that US politicians would permit the trashing of so much industrial capacity, not only plant but institutional knowledge and worker/engineer skills. I think it's unreasonable and self-destructive. I don't know what the social and economic consequences might be, but surely they won't be good.
So, do you want to do virtual test drives like a video game?
Awfully expensive test drives, wouldn't you say? Of course, my comments were tongue in cheek, but I really do hate dealers. I would rather it be an extension of the manufacturer. I'm loyal to Honda because Honda's loyal to me, as a customer. The Dealer almost loses me every time, and they do not represent Honda, or Honda's interests and operating philosophy well.
yes, Pavel, it is quite remarkable isn't it?
the US is going to be quite different when this is all said and done, and probably not in a way that most of us would consider positive
I find it hard to believe that US politicians would permit the trashing of so much industrial capacity, not only plant but institutional knowledge and worker/engineer skills.
I doubt many politicians think about those issues. Jobs, jobs, jobs - yes. Industrial policy - against the ideology/orthodoxy.
Maybe you were thinking of German politicians.
Silly if we dont close on the bottom. Nowhere near capitulation. Scary stuff.
Geez - that was easy.
But still nothing for distressed homeowners and tapayers getting stuck with the bill:
Message to Distressed Borrowers: You Have to Help Yourselves « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
I want to see Obama's AG go after Mozillo, Prince, O'Neil, Fuld, Lewis, and the rest of the crooks who mades hundreds of billions in ill-gotten profits and bonuses - while they left their companies, the economy, borrowers, and stockholders in the shitter.
Let's go peel Mozilo's fake tan right off his hide!