This is NOT good news for CAT, IR or DE. Why buy new when you can get so much for so cheap used. its not like this stuff wears out after 3 years either.
My twin is on tv live from Cali right now,
Repeating the whole "what we did in the bait and switch was not illegal" routine
AND
he's starting to outline his preferred new regulatory model. Suggesting it be done a product by product basis once the market gets to be a certain size
# Jobless claims jump unexpectedly to 16-year high- AP
I love how "unexpected" it is. I swear that the media is virtually a cause of this mess as much as anyone.
As for auctioning...Citibank will have a lot of desks, chairs, computer, and office equipment to auction soon. The Main St. battle hymn should be: Short 'C', short 'C', if we can't kill 'C' no one can. Free markets work if free markets are left alone.
Someone was complaining the other day about lack of good news, well over weight Americans are good for business.
Its the next bubble, products for the obese:
"The reality is patients need treatment and a big chunk - more than 70 per cent - of our revenue comes from ongoing supplies for treatment of patients."
For the half year, revenue from respiratory and acute care product sales increased 36 per cent in US dollar terms while obstructive sleep apnoea product revenue grew 14 per cent.
"Demand for our respiratory humidifier systems was exceptionally strong in the first half as we delivered substantial orders for hospital group purchasing organisation contracts in the United States and filled respiratory consumable back orders," said Daniell.
He's tying the crisis now in to being a reason for further trade liberalization, and rolling back of protectionism. Need these policies to create market access, prosperity for poor, lower barriers, in order to maintain global growth
Hmmm, All the keynesians might just have a boost to the famous argument. Not only should we pay people to dig holes and then pay them to fill them back in, the cost of the equipment to make the process much more efficient is too good to pass up
Recently, I've had a bell occasionally ring on my computer. Couldn't figure out what it was, driving me crazy! But I caught it in action today... It's the CR Firefox extension. //00tz! The extension rocks!
Dirk van Dijk writes:
This is NOT good news for CAT, IR or DE
I expect in the upcoming Q CAT will say:
"We are experiencing shrinkage in the backorder pipeline. This is probably due to the recycling of existing sold inventory and the quality of our product"
Lots of crap in that auction. You really have to know what youre looking at there. The fresh, pretty yellow paint covers up many flaws.
I bought a track loader there once, Id have done better holding Lehma
MLM,
Producer and Consumer surplus are not free market (assuming that is what is in the link, looked to be an entire book)
Without some exo-market coordination, that is a non free market, you would have massive duplication of infrastructure and thereby higher costs as another example
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says there is no deal yet on a possible bailout of the "Big Three" US automakers.
Saying there is no deal "yet" after Gettelfinger's press conference today is like admitting that the Senate has to come up with something.
Gettelfinger just tore into the hypocricy of states like Alabama, that have shoveled hundreds of millions of dollars of tax breaks at foreign auto companies, now trying to deny Detroit and home-grown companies taxpayer assistance.
A deal is going to happen because the stock market will keep dropping until it does. And the Republicans in Congress know it.
Broward Horne,
Exactly, I'm talking the holiest of the holy. If the purest strain of the blind ideology doesn't work, then perhaps we need to start with small building blocks and work up from there. Nuance isn't a bad thing, especially if it is your money you are putting into a business
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called the financial crisis now plaguing the world economy a "once or twice" in a 100 years event, even as he warned Thursday against imposing too-strict regulations to prevent a repeat calamity.
the house is still on fire, let's worry about a future crisis later...
Free markets would drive normal profits to zero. However, Economist add implicit costs into the formula, so it doesn't drive accounting profits to zero...
andy in nz,
Ritchie Bros auctioneers do operate globally, some of those definitely will be exported (the equipment is inspected, catalogued and people do buy without a personal inspection via phone/internet)
Before you and Broward reinvent the free market system, you probably ought to take the time to read Levy's booklet. I read its precursor about 8 years ago and found no errors in it. Standard macro framework. And, it has kept me out of (economic) trouble ever since.
andy in nz writes:
If the diggers are going for 50k, export those suckers. Make them viable purchase somewhere! Add in $50bbl oil too.
andy in nz | 11.20.08 - 3:02 pm | #
In a true free market, corporate profits will settle out at the lowest point where the owners of the corporation are willing to stay in business, as opposed to doing something else.
That point is NOT at profits = zero, and it depends on the other opportunities available to the owners.
The supply of owner-labor is not infinite, and is generally smaller than the range of opportunities.
With that said, in real-world markets, there are many ways for the markets not to be free, and many if not most of those are worse than free.
MLM,
Your link is all about profits as a mean to invest in future production. It is not even the free market as throughout it talks about taxes. It doesn't even appear to address the market at all, other than a passing reference to a series of tubes
In the free market, if you're earning a profit there should be a competitor that swoops in to undercut your price until the price drops to the point where it reaches the cost of production.
Accounting profits are non-zero due to a risk adjusted return to capital...IIRC the theory I was indoctrinated in during my temple days, economic rents are zero with positive accounting profits.
A deal is going to happen because the stock market will keep dropping until it does. And the Republicans in Congress know it.
Dems blocked it from passing. They don't want to give Big 3 $25B and then have Big 3 go back and hammer the unions for more concessions as mgmt. keeps all. Big, huge, expensive dance going on as each side defends their respective bases.
If the purest strain of the blind ideology doesn't work
I learned many years ago that the most rabid of free marketeers don't actually understand what they're talking about.
They 'read a book', understood the words but never really pondered the ramifications and exceptions.
I see it a lot with software people, too. My favorite is the "second project effect" originally defined by Fred Brooks. You get these guys, almost always really young, who did one successful project through a ram-shackle half-assed process in a poorly funded startup so when they do their second project...
well, it's going to be perfect.
Ergo, it invariably stalls out because nobody can actually create perfect software.
It's INCREDIBLY annoying to interview for those types of situations and I've learned to identify them almost immediately and try to stay clear.
Wisdom Seeker,
The profits = zero bit just implicitly assumes the cost per production is infinitely divisible. You are right in what you say, but I see no reason why one needs to start refining the details of a system which already relies on a sea of assumptions to exist
Broward Horne,
I had to take some software and computer engineering courses along side the rest of my load -- initially not appealing. However there are so many truisms littered about the field precisely because people do not approach it with ideology.
You may know of the mythical man month as a wider insight on project management. Or how protocol standards are developed, compete, and ratified.
In the free market, if you're earning a profit there should be a competitor that swoops in to undercut your price until the price drops to the point where it reaches the cost of production.
I think we'd call this the fallacy of decomposition.
If you want to know what the hell you're talking about, go through the book. You're obviously a smart guy, it won't take you long.
If you just want to argue with me without understanding what you're talking about, I guess that's fine, but doesn't really seem to be your style.
The media and others who spent all of 2007 and most of 2008 ignoring the factors leading to this sell-off tsuanmi, now suddenly everything is a crisis. Even that they get wrong. Crisis of confidence. My ass. Try debt,
leverage, syntheics etc. This nonsense gets old after a while.
Lennar will be one of the first big name homebuilders to go ToTS up before long. I will really enjoy it when THEY ask for a bailout. Let me spell it out for you...uhhhh N-O!!!
GS up 3%? Natl. homebuilders need to go tits up. They aren't needed. Local bldrs. who live in the community can pick all the slack in this new housing market
rich writes:
Gettelfinger just tore into the hypocricy of states like Alabama, that have shoveled hundreds of millions of dollars of tax breaks at foreign auto companies, now trying to deny Detroit and home-grown companies taxpayer assistance.
...
And the Republicans in Congress know it.
rich | 11.20.08 - 3:02 pm
Across the web, I'm noticing this rather odd North v. South dynamic in regard to the Detroit Three, and I'm rather puzzled by it. I'm not sure if it is tied to some kind of regional or nationalistic pride, but this "foreign" vs. "domestic" auto manufacturing and work force is just plain wonky. I also like this bias that the South is some kind of moocher on the goodness that the North has/had.
While I live in the South, I'm not exactly partial to the benefit packages that the unions up north have enjoyed over the past 70+ years. I would love to have 'em, and I would hate to lose 'em. The fact are still what they are.
Since we lost the "War of Northern Aggression", we have been the red-haired stepchild of the Union when it came to manufacturing, and as the losers, we deserved it. If the UAW wanted to spread the goodness and promote urban growth/build factories south of the Mason-Dixon line, it would've been more than welcomed. It would mean that they were willing to fight for the rights of southern workers. As time has shown my corner of the country, it didn't happen when times were good, and I find it now that times are better--regarding the South's manufacturing past vs. the South's present--I have no desire to fight for the UAW or its people. I'm in the "Plague upon both your houses" camp.
As far as the South is concerned, who employs us are "locals". Your line boss is from your town/county. His/Her boss is from your town/county. Chances are good that the person above that level is from your area. Just because the accounting might stop somewhere before it heads abroad means little when the Detroit Three are building cars in Mexico and Canada before sending them "home".
yagij, interesting synopsis. I never really held any animosity towards to the South until I moved here. I'm a yank, Massachusetts bred but lived in St. Louis MO for 20 years prior to moving to florida panhandle. What I found here was appalling and shocking. Bigotry, hatred, rudeness, and people that are still fighting a war they lost over a hundred years ago. It's sad really.
Rob Dawg(Unrated) writes:
IIRC Dryfly and I were discussing D9s and what to do with them some 20 plus month ago in these very forums.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 2:36 pm | #
Yes we were - looks like from CRs links there will be lotsa toys for big boys this Christmas.
[a friend's company just signed a contract on 'new' used machinery - 25 cents on the dollar DELIVERED - instead of buying new. Ouch. Some machinery salesman just got a lump of coal.]...
While I live in the South, I'm not exactly partial to the benefit packages that the unions up north have...
Wait until Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW, etc. downsize, slash production and board up plants in the South. No union bennies kick in for health care, TRA money, etc. The State picks up all the costs including the factories that their taxpayers paid for to lure the foreign manufs,
MLM,
I skimmed it. It's not about the free market. At best it is an abstraction on the free market, that is not free.
That is not to say it must be a planned economy if it is not free, there are many shades of gray. It just so happens that when professional ideologues try to form an argument they borrow only pieces of the free market which suit their position.
Look at how the internet was created, and the American backbone later privatized. It was not the result of the free market, but AT&T believes it should have all the rights and domain in terms of control, connection, and pricing as if it were.
Look at Friedman's entire career. He was afforded the opportunity to create several idealistic free markets in his life, but their failure was only because they weren't free enough.
Markets can be a great thing in terms of allocating goods & services to capital, but you must be very careful in terms of how they are constructed and operated. That's why things like anti-trust and worker protection laws exist. It's also why there is massive amounts of public infrastructure, as the free market could not deliver the same benefit.
You can only ever look at markets on a case by case basis if you want the market to be efficient
I personally prefer not to use any standard or reference model, but to use a system that adequately reflects the existing market. I don't mean to go off on you, but the free market is a loaded term
I think Paulson is worried that the regulatory backlash from his inept tour of duty in D.C may tend to stifle his post-governmental wealthbuilding as he returns to the role of Robber Baron.
"If the UAW wanted to spread the goodness and promote urban growth/build factories south of the Mason-Dixon line, it would've been more than welcomed."
Does the union build factories?
"I'm noticing this rather odd North v. South dynamic in regard to the Detroit Three..."
I'm noticing the centrifugal social forces at work. One thing unions understand that everyone should understand: In unity there is strength. I hope this country pulls itself together, instead of pulling apart or sloping sideways. Everyone's future depends on it.
andy in nz, question for you. The NZ50 is much less volatile than AORD and other indexes on that side of the globe. Do you know why? Thx.
Market Cap is as shallow as a bird bath with low volume. NZ joe6pk has not been a player in our market since 87 crash (got burnt bad). So is run by institutional investors, lots of dividend shares, buy and hold crowd. Low levels of allowable leverage compared to ASX, when a company gets big here they dual list or get bought and delist. Not to sure about rules on short selling (think they are restricted). Can trade Aussie market without restriction from NZ.
Anonymous writes:
The State picks up all the costs including the factories that their taxpayers paid for to lure the foreign manufs,
Anonymous | 11.20.08 - 3:29 pm
And "The State" isn't/won't pick up the bill while the Detroit Three are closing up shop? The UAW doesn't have the funds or resources to support their own people through some of their own ineptitude too. If you think the downsizing of the Dino Denizens will lead to the UAW's folks living comfortably for longer than a year, I would place some skin that you are wrong.
The UAW's leadership is just as much of the problem as GM/F/C's leadership.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Of note, S&P500 is around that 50% decline which was the 'bottom' of post-wwii crashes.
After a year of scratching and clawing we've finally made it to the edge of the cliff.
Complex work is not scalar but you can make good guesses from empirical data points if you combine and estimate of complexity, team size and "leverage" - the ability of toolsets to multiple effort.
What you eventually figure out, if you spend the time, is that the only way to truly increase productivity is through standardization which is forced down into the toolset.
People have finite knowledge domains, and finite bandwidth, so the total complexity of a project tends towards the finite. The only way to move things forward, to do more sophisticated work, is to embed knowledge into the toolset and let your people focus more on subject matter domain knowledge.
About, oh.... 98% of the guys I've met have no clue of what I'm talking about here.
please keep the treasury market suppressed and yields low until my permanent financing sets at 325 BPS over the 5 year note.
PLEASE GOD.
You know I don't ask for much, but i'd really appreciate this one, seeing as we pro forma'ed a permanent financing rate of at least 6.75% and today we would be at 5.25% or lower!
Thats some serious bonus cash flow, God.
I promise I won't ask for anything else for christmas ever again, and in fact this can be my birthday present as well!
Please God, having tenants locked into increasing rental rates in a deflationary environment with really low interest rates is exactly what my business plans needs right now.
I think this is about economic elasticity, and America is now having Treasury Induced Diarrhea (TID) as well as IBD. Either way, the mess is not pretty!
Also see: Convexity also gives an idea of the spread of future cashflows. (Just as the duration gives the discounted mean term, so convexity can be used to calculate the discounted standard deviation, say, of return.)
check out this incredible video of president bush and the other 19 leaders at the recent G20 meeting lining up for the press photo session
notice how every leader is shaking every other leaders hand, and each withdraws their hand as bush goes by
To be fair, Bush, as the host of the event, had already personally greeted each of these leaders, so another handshake greeting would not have been needed or expected.
Not that he's the BMOC or anything, but a snub like this at the head of state level simply isn't done. Except maybe by Hugo Chavez.
You know, except for the "still fighting a war they lost over a hundred years ago" thing, and the weather, of course, you might as well have stayed in St. Louis.
Xreg, I didn't move here by choice, Mom had a stroke, I was her caregiver until she died and left me a mortgage I can't get out of now...Yeah, the weather is GREAT!
JPMorgan Chase & Co is cutting 10 percent of its investment banking staff -- about 3,000 jobs -- as the economic slowdown starts to bite into its earnings, people familiar with the situation said on Thursday.
* Stocks decline as hopes fade for immediate bailout- AP
* Dems are postponing crucial vote on auto bailout- AP
* Oil at 3-year lows; Gas below $2 in 23 states- AP
* NorCal median home price plummets 41 percent- AP
* Citigroup shares tumble below $5 despite Alwaleed move- Reuters
* Paulson: Crisis happens once or twice in 100 years- AP
* China fund in talks for stake in AIG unit: report- Reuters
* If Stocks Are So 'Cheap,' Why Are They Still Going Down?- Tech Ticker
* How the Mighty Have Fallen: Buffett, Other Legends Feel Bear Market Bite- Tech Ticker</i>
Dow 7,712.06 -285.22 -3.39%
Now that's more like it...there is a smidgen of sanity left. The free market at work.
And no, I don't prefer the free markets for monopolies, but AIG and Citibank are pretty darn massive, and the government is preventing their destruction by the free market.
Off topic, but like where did these dudes get money from to pay for this amazing event? Is Buffett buying ... I thought he was in a coma?
Ambac Assurance Corp, Ambac's main unit, paid $1 billion to get out of four contracts it had written to guarantee collateralized debt obligations, reducing the bond insurer's liabilities.
Also, it was announced today that Thornburg-you all remember Thornburg? now has a new rating for counterpartycredit at D. It can't go lower. Further, Thornburg defaulted on a 12.2 million interest payment. Maybe the Thornburg people are getting used to it, since it faced a 1.8 billion in margin calls from the first of this year.
And Elcipse is a mystery, since it got enough cash to meet the payroll after letting the employees go on Friday of last week. It was desribed as a sugar daddy bridge loan.
I think I just saw Conjure cruise by on Wilshire Blvd, burning rubber and popping wheelies in a back-hoe he just bought for $5 and a can of dog food at that equipment sale out in the valley.
Broward Horne,
I view complexity in terms of a network of feedback loops. The more you add, the smaller the controlled input stability range is so you have to dial back individual output to keep things steady
Kona,
Were you alluding to the barrier between bonds and cash falling?
MLM,
It might be best if we avoid the 'free market' discussion here as I get the feeling that if we met in person, we would find ourselves in agreement. It can be troublesome separating logic from opinion with only short paragraphs of text
I love the last 15min of DOW live blogging, its a weird mix of submarine war movies (DIVE, DIVE) and horse race commentary (DOW noses past 76 support..)
Last time I saw PCA was right after he saw the legendary "three candlesticks" formation appear on his chart. I fear that someone may have beat him severely with said candlesticks.
EHP - No standard macro text is about the "free market" either - they all include the public sector.
Levy's document explains where profits come from, and that they aren't some kind of strange accident that would be driven to zero under perfect competition.
It also explains that total profits in the economy will be decreased by any increase in household saving (unless compensated by public sector borrowing) -- like the one we are embarking on at the moment.
All of that, as bond guy likes to say, is an accounting identity.
I say, hang on to your hat, because the P's in P/E are likely to radically shrink. Hoocoodanode?
Dear God:
As an addendum to my last request, please as well keep the Fed Funds Rate and thus Prime Rate low UNTIL we set the perm financing because prime .5% right now has us 2-3% lower than we pro forma'ed!
If i can't get the good permanent financing, i will gladly take reduced carry until stabilization so as to squeeze the three or four months of extra carry out of the project i'm going to need.
I mean, I was just going to play hardball with the already waaaay pregnant lender, but this way, WE ALL WIN.
I fell into, into the burning ring of fire
I fell down, down, down, down into the deepest mire
and it burns, burns, burns, burns
the ring of fire, the ring of fire, the ring of fire
Note:
The family of Johnny and June-Carter Cash says they wont allow the song Ring of Fire to be used in ads for hemorrhoid-relief products. A TV producer got the idea after hearing the song on the radio while suffering from the condition.
Broward Horne,
I view complexity in terms of a network of feedback loops. The more you add, the smaller the controlled input stability range is so you have to dial back individual output to keep things steady.
Problem is this doesn't work. At some point your intrusion becomes the dominate cause of complexity.
What you eventually figure out, if you spend the time, is that the only way to truly increase productivity is through standardization which is forced down into the toolset.
Sorry about your circumstances. I would also encourage you to heed LawyerLiz's counsel (I'm also an atty, but not licensed in Fla., so not giving advice): don't use up all of your savings. I know you don't want to default on your mort, but which is worse, defaulting on your mort and having some money, or defaulting on your mort somewhat later and having exactly zero money?
PS I have a suspicion that one of these days, the in-laws will be moving back here to STL from Central Florida. Guess where they will be living if that happens?
Pavel Chichikov writes:
Does the union build factories?
...
In unity there is strength. I hope this country pulls itself together, instead of pulling apart or sloping sideways. Everyone's future depends on it.
Pavel Chichikov | 11.20.08 - 3:31 pm
Another way to view it: Do unions inhibit capital investors from building factories? I think Mexico, China, & Vietnam might be able to answer that question. As for unity, I think I agree with your comment, but it is a tad vague and pie-in-the-sky for me.
In the US's private sector, if the suffering was spread among all parties in that Unity Hug, we could pull together. However, with the Detroit Dinos, I have GM/F/C executives spending tens of thousands of dollars flying to hearings and being fought by people who have enjoyed great pensions, free education, free health insurance, and other good benefits.
Before you want us--non-affiliated folks--to "unify" with your cloister--automotive sector folks--I would like to see you make some sacrifices first. As it is now, it seems that the parties want everyone to sacrifice except the recipients of the bailout or not sacrifice as much as the non-affiliated folks.
After some reflection, I guess Patton was right: "Make other Americans sacrifice for your cause more than your group sacrifice for your cause." (Paraphrased)
EHP, Serf AG, et al: This is setting up for one of those classic Thursday to Tuesday situations. If we close on the lows, and we'll know in a few minutes, then tomorrow could well be cliff city. No?
The bank holding company on Thursday said its future was in doubt because of the deterioration of the Southern California real estate market.
Alliance, which has $1.1 billion in assets and six local branches, said its problems stem from souring construction loans, particularly loans for tract projects and single homes.
Yesterday morning I said that it was going to be an ugly day. A turning point, ugly kind of day. While not truly exceptional in some ways; it was in one way historically. The Big Three went back without the bailout.
Today is going to be ugly also. Very ugly.
nova: Homeless Ponys | 11.20.08 - 6:39 am
One more thing while we we're at it. Please God, oh great one, please allow my bank to survive long enough to give me the required funds to finish my project. Then, God, grant them the ability to place my permanent financing as well. No one wants another law suit, God.
But if they can't place the perm, please do compel them to honor the construction financing, Prime Plus 50 BP INTEREST ONLY until such time as they can.
® writes: I am. Remember what the conversation was about? I said Ken Lewis did what he said and was a straight shooter.
I saw BAC covered those debts, yes.
I was tormenting you for your petulance.
But... do you really want to make a stand about the good moral character of Ken Lewis?
Remember those those warehouse lines with CFC? Was that really anything other than an attempt to hold up the Treasury by pointing a gun at his own head? Because if that was just an attempt to transact sharp practice, man he sucks at risk assessment. Like really, way to TARP the economy, Braniac.
I mean let's be honest, it's one of those "incompetence or malice" sort of things. If he were a real straight shooter, I would expect a heart-felt mea culpa backed with some attempts to make amends for the national disaster he personally had a large hand in creating.
He took CFC's debt with the Fed there to hand him a sack of taxpayer cash to meet his obligations and hit him in the head with a bat if he flinched. Not exactly an indication of strong moral character.
Being a straight shooter is surrendering the personal fortune made at the expense of the US taxpayer. I don't think we'll see any of that soon.
So most of those americans who had retirement savings have seen them cut in half in a matter of months. And their houses have lost value and may be underwater. And the job market sucks.
RIP American Consumer.
I think I'll finally be giving in and getting a video camera after christmas. Probably at the Circuit City going out of business sale.
yagi,
One interesting thing is the differences between unions in America, Germany, and China -- all different takes.
Volker the Viking,
I have learned that I cannot call the bottom in advance. The best I could hope for would be to track enough datasets, in high frequency, to realize when one has come -- and I certainly don't have the setup most hedge funds or brokerages do. Anyone working in a hedge fund or trading desk of a brokerage hanging out here?
If I had to guess, for fun and without reason, I think the crowd wants blood and maybe that blood is around s&p500 750
Is there a need to store dirt? It seems as though many business opportunities revolve around the acquisition, storage and moving of "something." Oh, yeah ... there is also presentation, recycling ... of "something."
i stole the first line of the proposal from dr batra
1 US gov buys 100% of GM... cant cost more than several billion$ much less than the bailout proposed
2 lend/give 50% of the shares to all the workers at GM on an appropriate pro-rated level relative to years worked
3 give the GM workers the authority to hire managers , re negotiate a contract favorable to the company; 5 years to return the company to profitability; AND multiply stock price times 10
4 US gov prior to purchase agrees to share 50% of stock profits if any, with previous stock holders in exchange for friendly buyout
5 if GM workers are successful in meeting number 3 above give them the loaned stock (50% equity ownership
6 US government sells at a moderate pace the other 50% equity to private individuals and places proceeds from sale in a trust fund for paying social security benefits
Autoworkers in the Midwest have suffered plenty in the last generation. If their pensions are eliminated don't expect anyone to cry for you, or your job , wage or pension.
The ruling class will not be the ones to suffer in a race to the bottom.
EHP: I'm no expert, I'm going on historical situations at key moments of markets. This Thursday to Tuesady thing I learned from listening and reading. Of course, I could be wrong.
BTW: I'm not calling anything about a bottom. I know what the bottom will be, and we ain't even close.
Thanks Xreg, I just discussed that with my hubby. He just got some hopeful news on the workfront. Two Union guys just got axed for non performance and he's at the top of the list to get called...fingers crossed, this is a year long job they were on....
Dear God, please help bring Bush, Bernanke, Paulson and all these banker fuckers to justice and please allow the lynch mob to be kind and gentle as we restore justice to America and try all these people for Treason.
Hard to be first today
Wow! I 'd like some of those...
Nemo, you creep!
Maybe you can tell me how a failing government can bail out failing corporations?
...of course I'd need a little help from the TARP.
Wait, if the guy was there to make a bid, shouldn't he have said "the best prices I have ever seen"?
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says there is no deal yet on a possible bailout of the "Big Three" US automakers.
Wonder how much of those are going to China for their stimulus plans?
This is NOT good news for CAT, IR or DE. Why buy new when you can get so much for so cheap used. its not like this stuff wears out after 3 years either.
Pardners,
I could use a few of those to move some dirt here in Taos....the horses would like another back 40 to romp around in.
Giddyup!
IIRC Dryfly and I were discussing D9s and what to do with them some 20 plus month ago in these very forums.
"not much demand to move dirt in california"
that will change after the trials and executions
technical alert: bat signal following 12 PM, middle finger salute poking above 8000 following. Hank is painting a pretty picture
My twin is on tv live from Cali right now,
Repeating the whole "what we did in the bait and switch was not illegal" routine
AND
he's starting to outline his preferred new regulatory model. Suggesting it be done a product by product basis once the market gets to be a certain size
# Jobless claims jump unexpectedly to 16-year high- AP
I love how "unexpected" it is. I swear that the media is virtually a cause of this mess as much as anyone.
As for auctioning...Citibank will have a lot of desks, chairs, computer, and office equipment to auction soon. The Main St. battle hymn should be: Short 'C', short 'C', if we can't kill 'C' no one can. Free markets work if free markets are left alone.
Transparency
Wind down authorities
Prevent too interconnected/too large to fail
OT
Someone was complaining the other day about lack of good news, well over weight Americans are good for business.
Its the next bubble, products for the obese:
"The reality is patients need treatment and a big chunk - more than 70 per cent - of our revenue comes from ongoing supplies for treatment of patients."
For the half year, revenue from respiratory and acute care product sales increased 36 per cent in US dollar terms while obstructive sleep apnoea product revenue grew 14 per cent.
"Demand for our respiratory humidifier systems was exceptionally strong in the first half as we delivered substantial orders for hospital group purchasing organisation contracts in the United States and filled respiratory consumable back orders," said Daniell.
Weaker dollar to boost F&P Healthcare - Business - NZ Herald News
it seems like if they get too large, they are bound to fail
Lurch Paulson is singlehandedly driving the markets down.
So Paulson is trying to pre-empty Sarkozy by putting forth his vision of a new global regulator/clearing house of finance
Apparently the US has been leading the argument for a new global regulator (rolls eyes, this is Paulson remember)
Apparently the White House didn't like Sarkozy's surprise January conference
Yahoo's dow ticker is stuck again.
He's tying the crisis now in to being a reason for further trade liberalization, and rolling back of protectionism. Need these policies to create market access, prosperity for poor, lower barriers, in order to maintain global growth
if we loose dollar supremacy, game over
from the la times article
"Dabney, president of Dorado Equipment Corp. ... said rentals of his compaction equipment had plunged 30% ... real sales, ... are down 40%.
"... some of the nicest pieces here belong to me (said dabney). I hope they bring some good money, so I can at least make some cream."
cream???
or
take a loss on a capital investment
In CA the dirt moves itself.
"prosperity for the poor" and how's that going hank?
Free markets work if free markets are left alone
True for simple commodities and simple, short-term consumer goods.
Empirically proven wrong, otherwise.
He of the shiny pate is but 10 miles from me right now. I think there is a new ground zero. Sad.
Hmmm, All the keynesians might just have a boost to the famous argument. Not only should we pay people to dig holes and then pay them to fill them back in, the cost of the equipment to make the process much more efficient is too good to pass up
Recently, I've had a bell occasionally ring on my computer. Couldn't figure out what it was, driving me crazy! But I caught it in action today... It's the CR Firefox extension. //00tz! The extension rocks!
Dirk van Dijk writes:
This is NOT good news for CAT, IR or DE
I expect in the upcoming Q CAT will say:
"We are experiencing shrinkage in the backorder pipeline. This is probably due to the recycling of existing sold inventory and the quality of our product"
Free markets can only exist in isolation. In free markets, no firm should earn any profit. It's like discussing centaurs and unicorns -- not relevant.
centaurs and unicorns, now you're talking. please cancel my pony order right away
Lots of crap in that auction. You really have to know what youre looking at there. The fresh, pretty yellow paint covers up many flaws.
I bought a track loader there once, Id have done better holding Lehma
"Free markets work if free markets are left alone."
Duarte | 11.20.08 - 2:41 pm | #
like they did in the 2nd half of the 19th century before president theadore roosevelt busted the trusts and backed basic labor laws
Text of Paulson's remarks: HP-1285: Remarks by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jr.at The Ronald Reagan Presidential Library
I tried to listen but then I realized I really don't care what he thinks about future policy. He won't be making it.
Rob,I almost wrote something DHS would get upset about.Be good,don't get caught.
centaurs and unicorns, now you're talking. please cancel my pony order right away
Okay, sir. But you'll have to take delivery of your unicorn at MJ's Neverland in Santa Barbara.
In free markets, no firm should earn any profit.
EHP, you need to rethink that profits idea of yours.
Start here:
http://www.levyforecast.com/Profits.pdf
I think mikey had to quitclaim neverland to the shah of iran or somebody
wow, 84% haircut on Tonka toys,
this my friends is getting serious.
Thoughts on what happens to Citi? In what form will it exist/not exist on Monday?
EHP, you need to rethink that profits idea of yours
EHP is talking pure theory. In a true free market, competition drives all firms to a zero profit state.
But like he said, it's like talking unicorns, although that's seems like a valid conversation considering recent events in DC.
MLM,
Producer and Consumer surplus are not free market (assuming that is what is in the link, looked to be an entire book)
Without some exo-market coordination, that is a non free market, you would have massive duplication of infrastructure and thereby higher costs as another example
I want a small front end loader for personal landscaping uses. How much do those go for these days?
markets open in 5 minutes, brace yourself!
Saying there is no deal "yet" after Gettelfinger's press conference today is like admitting that the Senate has to come up with something.
Gettelfinger just tore into the hypocricy of states like Alabama, that have shoveled hundreds of millions of dollars of tax breaks at foreign auto companies, now trying to deny Detroit and home-grown companies taxpayer assistance.
A deal is going to happen because the stock market will keep dropping until it does. And the Republicans in Congress know it.
If the diggers are going for 50k, export those suckers. Make them viable purchase somewhere! Add in $50bbl oil too.
Broward Horne,
Exactly, I'm talking the holiest of the holy. If the purest strain of the blind ideology doesn't work, then perhaps we need to start with small building blocks and work up from there. Nuance isn't a bad thing, especially if it is your money you are putting into a business
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called the financial crisis now plaguing the world economy a "once or twice" in a 100 years event, even as he warned Thursday against imposing too-strict regulations to prevent a repeat calamity.
the house is still on fire, let's worry about a future crisis later...
In a true free market, competition drives all firms to a zero profit state.
Broward, that isn't correct. If you want to work through the equations, go read the doc from Levy that I posted for EHP.
Levy Forecasting center was started during GD I, when Levy Sr. asked himself where profits come from, in a macroeconomic sense.
Free markets would drive normal profits to zero. However, Economist add implicit costs into the formula, so it doesn't drive accounting profits to zero...
andy in nz,
Ritchie Bros auctioneers do operate globally, some of those definitely will be exported (the equipment is inspected, catalogued and people do buy without a personal inspection via phone/internet)
EHP -
Before you and Broward reinvent the free market system, you probably ought to take the time to read Levy's booklet. I read its precursor about 8 years ago and found no errors in it. Standard macro framework. And, it has kept me out of (economic) trouble ever since.
3PM Dow near low of day. what next?
This is the kind of stuff you need to see ... home builders need to be eliminated as they produce more supply.
andy in nz writes:
If the diggers are going for 50k, export those suckers. Make them viable purchase somewhere! Add in $50bbl oil too.
andy in nz | 11.20.08 - 3:02 pm | #
Make that $49bbl oil. Oil just fell off a cliff.
IMO market closes flat to slightly up...
Ciao
MS
oil in the forties too, wow
In a true free market, corporate profits will settle out at the lowest point where the owners of the corporation are willing to stay in business, as opposed to doing something else.
That point is NOT at profits = zero, and it depends on the other opportunities available to the owners.
The supply of owner-labor is not infinite, and is generally smaller than the range of opportunities.
With that said, in real-world markets, there are many ways for the markets not to be free, and many if not most of those are worse than free.
MLM,
Your link is all about profits as a mean to invest in future production. It is not even the free market as throughout it talks about taxes. It doesn't even appear to address the market at all, other than a passing reference to a series of tubes
In the free market, if you're earning a profit there should be a competitor that swoops in to undercut your price until the price drops to the point where it reaches the cost of production.
Reserve Fund's US Government Fund to liquidate with U.S.help
Treasury to assist liquidation of money market fund
Treasury says assistance to Reserve Fund unique
In a true free market, competition drives all firms to a zero profit state.
god I spent weeks defending this proposition on usenet in a previous life.
Accounting profits are non-zero due to a risk adjusted return to capital...IIRC the theory I was indoctrinated in during my temple days, economic rents are zero with positive accounting profits.
demand destruction at it's finest...
Ciao
MS
A deal is going to happen because the stock market will keep dropping until it does. And the Republicans in Congress know it.
Dems blocked it from passing. They don't want to give Big 3 $25B and then have Big 3 go back and hammer the unions for more concessions as mgmt. keeps all. Big, huge, expensive dance going on as each side defends their respective bases.
95 bottles of Yen on the wall
95 bottles of Yen
If one of those bottles should happen to fall
94 bottles of Yen on the wall
# China fund in talks for stake in AIG unit: report- Reuters
This is unbelievable. Some smart people predicted that this would happen.
If the purest strain of the blind ideology doesn't work
I learned many years ago that the most rabid of free marketeers don't actually understand what they're talking about.
They 'read a book', understood the words but never really pondered the ramifications and exceptions.
I see it a lot with software people, too. My favorite is the "second project effect" originally defined by Fred Brooks. You get these guys, almost always really young, who did one successful project through a ram-shackle half-assed process in a poorly funded startup so when they do their second project...
well, it's going to be perfect.
Ergo, it invariably stalls out because nobody can actually create perfect software.
It's INCREDIBLY annoying to interview for those types of situations and I've learned to identify them almost immediately and try to stay clear.
When I first glanced at the headline, I thought it said, "LA Times: Auction of Building."
andy in nz, question for you. The NZ50 is much less volatile than AORD and other indexes on that side of the globe. Do you know why? Thx.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^AORD#chart1:symbol=^aord;range=5d;compare=^nz50+^n225;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
10-year Treasury now yielding pi percent
of course, AIG and AON are the two big players for the life insurance business on mainland. And the first ones too.
That's a great metaphor Broward...very true.
Ciao
MS
Wisdom Seeker,
The profits = zero bit just implicitly assumes the cost per production is infinitely divisible. You are right in what you say, but I see no reason why one needs to start refining the details of a system which already relies on a sea of assumptions to exist
In pure arket theory it is either:
1. A plan to justify costs
2. Profit IS one of your costs
Just look at Wall Street. The claim is they HAVE to pay 7 figures or all the smart guys will go somewhere else.
Umm, thoe people are absolutley a commoditiy and BoA already proved this with the Thundering Herd.
C could come close to 2x volume from yesterday.....
Ouch!
Ciao
MS
Broward Horne,
I had to take some software and computer engineering courses along side the rest of my load -- initially not appealing. However there are so many truisms littered about the field precisely because people do not approach it with ideology.
You may know of the mythical man month as a wider insight on project management. Or how protocol standards are developed, compete, and ratified.
A deal is going to happen because the stock market will keep dropping until it does. And the Republicans in Congress know it.
God, it sounds just like the idiots for TARP passage.
In the free market, if you're earning a profit there should be a competitor that swoops in to undercut your price until the price drops to the point where it reaches the cost of production.
I think we'd call this the fallacy of decomposition.
If you want to know what the hell you're talking about, go through the book. You're obviously a smart guy, it won't take you long.
If you just want to argue with me without understanding what you're talking about, I guess that's fine, but doesn't really seem to be your style.
The media and others who spent all of 2007 and most of 2008 ignoring the factors leading to this sell-off tsuanmi, now suddenly everything is a crisis. Even that they get wrong. Crisis of confidence. My ass. Try debt,
leverage, syntheics etc. This nonsense gets old after a while.
Speaking of building....anybody notice that the homebuilder Lennar seems intent on going to zero?
"IMO the market closes flat to up"
Still have 45 minutes however this is why I don't gamble.
I'm biased too as I closed out several shorts earlier this morning. Normally I'd swing the other way but not at this point. Would you?
DB-
Hope you are careful!!
Ciao
MS
Lennar will be one of the first big name homebuilders to go ToTS up before long. I will really enjoy it when THEY ask for a bailout. Let me spell it out for you...uhhhh N-O!!!
Reeducation© camps for Realtors© !!!
Be interesting to see how the buy for the long term crowd explains being back at 1998 levels.
Disaster capitalism at its best. Shock doctrine, anyone?
GS up 3%? Natl. homebuilders need to go tits up. They aren't needed. Local bldrs. who live in the community can pick all the slack in this new housing market
JPM-C to cut 3000 jobs......and the sucking sound continues.
I guess the "real" economy will have to deflate back to 1998 levels. haircut all?
Imagine, streets where not all the houses were exactly the same... gasp.
Took all of 1 day for Mr. Kingdom Holdings to cost average down in C.
Love it....ALL of it underwater.
Ciao
MS
rich writes:
Gettelfinger just tore into the hypocricy of states like Alabama, that have shoveled hundreds of millions of dollars of tax breaks at foreign auto companies, now trying to deny Detroit and home-grown companies taxpayer assistance.
...
And the Republicans in Congress know it.
rich | 11.20.08 - 3:02 pm
Across the web, I'm noticing this rather odd North v. South dynamic in regard to the Detroit Three, and I'm rather puzzled by it. I'm not sure if it is tied to some kind of regional or nationalistic pride, but this "foreign" vs. "domestic" auto manufacturing and work force is just plain wonky. I also like this bias that the South is some kind of moocher on the goodness that the North has/had.
While I live in the South, I'm not exactly partial to the benefit packages that the unions up north have enjoyed over the past 70+ years. I would love to have 'em, and I would hate to lose 'em. The fact are still what they are.
Since we lost the "War of Northern Aggression", we have been the red-haired stepchild of the Union when it came to manufacturing, and as the losers, we deserved it. If the UAW wanted to spread the goodness and promote urban growth/build factories south of the Mason-Dixon line, it would've been more than welcomed. It would mean that they were willing to fight for the rights of southern workers. As time has shown my corner of the country, it didn't happen when times were good, and I find it now that times are better--regarding the South's manufacturing past vs. the South's present--I have no desire to fight for the UAW or its people. I'm in the "Plague upon both your houses" camp.
As far as the South is concerned, who employs us are "locals". Your line boss is from your town/county. His/Her boss is from your town/county. Chances are good that the person above that level is from your area. Just because the accounting might stop somewhere before it heads abroad means little when the Detroit Three are building cars in Mexico and Canada before sending them "home".
the one's where all the houses are painted more or less the same color really get me.
"Local bldrs. who live in the community can pick all the slack in this new housing market
Anonymous"
And they will eventually overbuild, too.
"What do you do when you're branded
and you know you're a cow?"
The Georgetown Soviet has declared itself the National Government
Elvis:
We can get you a front end loader pretty cheap if you are willing to become a bank....
Been to those auctions. Buyer Beware.
"We can get you a front end loader pretty cheap if you are willing to become a bank....
Bruce in Tennessee"
Bank of Elvis? Elvis S&L? JP ELVIS Bank?
No. I'll just pay market. What is market, though?
Shares of U.S. banks fell on Thursday. Highlights:
yagij, interesting synopsis. I never really held any animosity towards to the South until I moved here. I'm a yank, Massachusetts bred but lived in St. Louis MO for 20 years prior to moving to florida panhandle. What I found here was appalling and shocking. Bigotry, hatred, rudeness, and people that are still fighting a war they lost over a hundred years ago. It's sad really.
Rob Dawg(Unrated) writes:
IIRC Dryfly and I were discussing D9s and what to do with them some 20 plus month ago in these very forums.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 2:36 pm | #
Yes we were - looks like from CRs links there will be lotsa toys for big boys this Christmas.
[a friend's company just signed a contract on 'new' used machinery - 25 cents on the dollar DELIVERED - instead of buying new. Ouch. Some machinery salesman just got a lump of coal.]...
Like being at a party, balloon popping all over the place.
While I live in the South, I'm not exactly partial to the benefit packages that the unions up north have...
Wait until Toyota, Honda, Nissan, BMW, etc. downsize, slash production and board up plants in the South. No union bennies kick in for health care, TRA money, etc. The State picks up all the costs including the factories that their taxpayers paid for to lure the foreign manufs,
77 handle on the dow
Re: The auto bailout debate.
I love the smell of class warfare in the morning.
It is not always this transparent but can be very instructive when it is.
Jim
@Taos
"I could use a few of those to move some dirt here in Taos....the horses would like another back 40 to romp around in."
I'll go havlfsies. Putting a bunker together in Abiquiu.
Geez, these Equities futures are looking bad for the 3:45pm EST opening
77 handle on the s & p as well.
MLM,
I skimmed it. It's not about the free market. At best it is an abstraction on the free market, that is not free.
That is not to say it must be a planned economy if it is not free, there are many shades of gray. It just so happens that when professional ideologues try to form an argument they borrow only pieces of the free market which suit their position.
Look at how the internet was created, and the American backbone later privatized. It was not the result of the free market, but AT&T believes it should have all the rights and domain in terms of control, connection, and pricing as if it were.
Look at Friedman's entire career. He was afforded the opportunity to create several idealistic free markets in his life, but their failure was only because they weren't free enough.
Markets can be a great thing in terms of allocating goods & services to capital, but you must be very careful in terms of how they are constructed and operated. That's why things like anti-trust and worker protection laws exist. It's also why there is massive amounts of public infrastructure, as the free market could not deliver the same benefit.
You can only ever look at markets on a case by case basis if you want the market to be efficient
I personally prefer not to use any standard or reference model, but to use a system that adequately reflects the existing market. I don't mean to go off on you, but the free market is a loaded term
I think Paulson is worried that the regulatory backlash from his inept tour of duty in D.C may tend to stifle his post-governmental wealthbuilding as he returns to the role of Robber Baron.
cd
as he returns to the role of Robber Baron.
When did he resign those duties?
F is back to negative.
rich - did you load up on BHP a few days back, or are you waiting for more declines? Down 10%+ today...
"If the UAW wanted to spread the goodness and promote urban growth/build factories south of the Mason-Dixon line, it would've been more than welcomed."
Does the union build factories?
"I'm noticing this rather odd North v. South dynamic in regard to the Detroit Three..."
I'm noticing the centrifugal social forces at work. One thing unions understand that everyone should understand: In unity there is strength. I hope this country pulls itself together, instead of pulling apart or sloping sideways. Everyone's future depends on it.
Longs getting WIPED out...
What is a 77 handle?
Looks like the junkie needs another heroi
Oil @ 49... on its way to $30
andy in nz, question for you. The NZ50 is much less volatile than AORD and other indexes on that side of the globe. Do you know why? Thx.
Market Cap is as shallow as a bird bath with low volume. NZ joe6pk has not been a player in our market since 87 crash (got burnt bad). So is run by institutional investors, lots of dividend shares, buy and hold crowd. Low levels of allowable leverage compared to ASX, when a company gets big here they dual list or get bought and delist. Not to sure about rules on short selling (think they are restricted). Can trade Aussie market without restriction from NZ.
NZX has been in a slow decline since July 2007...
Check out the make up:
Indices
make of it what you will.
Where is our regular bottom caller spam? Can we haz bottom?
Yes, please someone explain the origin of "handle" when referring to a price.
Loke, how much you willing to lend?
Yeah Loke, give me a taste...
77 handle=below 8000 on DJIA
Anonymous writes:
The State picks up all the costs including the factories that their taxpayers paid for to lure the foreign manufs,
Anonymous | 11.20.08 - 3:29 pm
And "The State" isn't/won't pick up the bill while the Detroit Three are closing up shop? The UAW doesn't have the funds or resources to support their own people through some of their own ineptitude too. If you think the downsizing of the Dino Denizens will lead to the UAW's folks living comfortably for longer than a year, I would place some skin that you are wrong.
The UAW's leadership is just as much of the problem as GM/F/C's leadership.
I have so much dry powder right now.
It is so tempting to go long...
I wouldn't be shorting at this point.
77 handle is a brief stop on the way to a 76 handle lol
handle is what index/starts with...
Not much demand to move dirt in Southern California!
Yeah, but there sure is a substantial movement of trash, and not just in California.
Just took me 5 min to explain to the neighbor why 250 pt drop in the Down Jones today is as signficant in pct terms as 440 pts when it was >14K.
He opined that things are getting better since the daily drops are smaller.
cd
"Dems are postponing crucial vote on auto bailout"
Scapegoats in crosshairs.
Of note, S&P500 is around that 50% decline which was the 'bottom' of post-wwii crashes.
its clear who world leaders blame
check out this incredible video of president bush and the other 19 leaders at the recent G20 meeting lining up for the press photo session
notice how every leader is shaking every other leaders hand, and each withdraws their hand as bush goes by
as much as i dislike bush i have to admit this is painful to watch and i wish his presidency had not come to this...for our sake and his
YouTube -
For those out of the loop, America will probably be downgraded next week to junk:
^IRX: Basic Chart for 13-WEEK TREASURY BILL - Yahoo! Finance
US about to get a big "FU" handle on it!
mock,
The body language of the Brazilian president was striking when I saw video of the standing photo op...
Picked up some SPY Dec 95 calls here.
Go rally monkey!
mock,
Too bad spitting wasn't allowed.
Nice to see the shine really come off GS and JPM. Such sluts.
yeah, that film of Bush is amazing. don't really feel sorry for the guy, but still.
C @ $4.85
You guys here are smart, so what happens when a bond has no duration .... LOL!
andy in nz - thanks.
Kona, I'm going to say that it's a bad thing, I'm no economist though, just a bartender
You guys here are smart, so what happens when a bond has no duration .... LOL!
Kona | 11.20.08 - 3:39 pm | #
It's like life. What happens when your life has no duration ?
You guys here are smart, so what happens when a bond has no duration .... LOL!
Kona | 11.20.08 - 3:39 pm
It gets tired real fast.
Kona writes:
For those out of the loop, America will probably be downgraded next week to junk:
Why do I feel much poorer all the sudden?
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Of note, S&P500 is around that 50% decline which was the 'bottom' of post-wwii crashes.
After a year of scratching and clawing we've finally made it to the edge of the cliff.
You may know of the mythical man month as a wider insight on project management. Or how protocol standards are developed, compete, and ratified
I've expanded the mythical man-month into a rough type of methodology.
Mythical Man Month Curve
Complex work is not scalar but you can make good guesses from empirical data points if you combine and estimate of complexity, team size and "leverage" - the ability of toolsets to multiple effort.
What you eventually figure out, if you spend the time, is that the only way to truly increase productivity is through standardization which is forced down into the toolset.
People have finite knowledge domains, and finite bandwidth, so the total complexity of a project tends towards the finite. The only way to move things forward, to do more sophisticated work, is to embed knowledge into the toolset and let your people focus more on subject matter domain knowledge.
About, oh.... 98% of the guys I've met have no clue of what I'm talking about here.
Capitulation!
Don't worry, guys, the O Team will take care of all this. Nothing bu Blue Skies ahead.
Congress is getting re-taught the lesson about how the market hates uncertainty.
dear god:
please keep the treasury market suppressed and yields low until my permanent financing sets at 325 BPS over the 5 year note.
PLEASE GOD.
You know I don't ask for much, but i'd really appreciate this one, seeing as we pro forma'ed a permanent financing rate of at least 6.75% and today we would be at 5.25% or lower!
Thats some serious bonus cash flow, God.
I promise I won't ask for anything else for christmas ever again, and in fact this can be my birthday present as well!
Please God, having tenants locked into increasing rental rates in a deflationary environment with really low interest rates is exactly what my business plans needs right now.
Sincerely,
DC1000
Oh no! S&P is beating the DOW using the 10:1 ratio for the race to the bottom
damn chart looks like a myocardial infarction
mock-
I wouldn't read too much into that as he was the host and had already greeted each individual leader already.
Unfortunately politics is all about protocol and detente.
But I see what you mean....
Ciao
MS
ANyone seen PCA...he said go long.
Jesse at Jesse's cafe Americain had DJIA support at 7800, 7200 and then nothing underneath. That's scary.
Wow, I said 7700 at the beginning of the day, and it may be just that.
"He opined that things are getting better since the daily drops are smaller."
....Math are hard.......
Not sure we can have capitulation when the market gets a boner on a rumor of a bailout of failed businesses.
We have breached support levels!
I think this is about economic elasticity, and America is now having Treasury Induced Diarrhea (TID) as well as IBD. Either way, the mess is not pretty!
Also see: Convexity also gives an idea of the spread of future cashflows. (Just as the duration gives the discounted mean term, so convexity can be used to calculate the discounted standard deviation, say, of return.)
dc1000 - I do lots of deals with Prudentail for CRE...we were rate plus 150 bps forever, now were are rate plus 450 bps...good luck
uffda 76 handle Dow
check out this incredible video of president bush and the other 19 leaders at the recent G20 meeting lining up for the press photo session
notice how every leader is shaking every other leaders hand, and each withdraws their hand as bush goes by
To be fair, Bush, as the host of the event, had already personally greeted each of these leaders, so another handshake greeting would not have been needed or expected.
Not that he's the BMOC or anything, but a snub like this at the head of state level simply isn't done. Except maybe by Hugo Chavez.
cd
dc1000,
good on ya mate! will light a candle for you as well...
Comrade Kristina | 11.20.08 - 3:28 pm
You know, except for the "still fighting a war they lost over a hundred years ago" thing, and the weather, of course, you might as well have stayed in St. Louis.
Back-to-back 6% down days on the S&P? That not good.
Picked up some SPY Dec 95 calls here.
Flush.
You can bet that video of Bush at G20 doesn't make it into a exhibit in the GW Bush Pres Library (or their Paraguayan branch)
7500? anyone?
breaching support with some vol too
DOWN goes Frazier
Down goes Fraizer
the void that mp spoke of yesterday is now upon us.
Ciao
MS
woosh!
Xreg, I didn't move here by choice, Mom had a stroke, I was her caregiver until she died and left me a mortgage I can't get out of now...Yeah, the weather is GREAT!
Parachute anyone.
I guess the 1998 level I spoke about earlier was a bit optomistic.
AP: US Congress passes legislation extending jobless benefits through the December holidays.
ok, they passed something
dc1000
Fingers crossed for you!
Will CR redraw that S&P chart from yesterday?
Its not a market crash w/o Crispy&cole's Frazier note.
Anyone need some formwork?
wow, S&P cliff diving...
JPMorgan Cuts 3,000 Investment Banking Jobs: Sources- Reuters
JPMorgan Chase & Co is cutting 10 percent of its investment banking staff -- about 3,000 jobs -- as the economic slowdown starts to bite into its earnings, people familiar with the situation said on Thursday.
* Stocks decline as hopes fade for immediate bailout- AP
* Dems are postponing crucial vote on auto bailout- AP
* Oil at 3-year lows; Gas below $2 in 23 states- AP
* NorCal median home price plummets 41 percent- AP
* Citigroup shares tumble below $5 despite Alwaleed move- Reuters
* Paulson: Crisis happens once or twice in 100 years- AP
* China fund in talks for stake in AIG unit: report- Reuters
* If Stocks Are So 'Cheap,' Why Are They Still Going Down?- Tech Ticker
* How the Mighty Have Fallen: Buffett, Other Legends Feel Bear Market Bite- Tech Ticker</i>
Dow 7,712.06 -285.22 -3.39%
Now that's more like it...there is a smidgen of sanity left. The free market at work.
And no, I don't prefer the free markets for monopolies, but AIG and Citibank are pretty darn massive, and the government is preventing their destruction by the free market.
DIVE! DIVE! DIVE!
crispy&cole writes:
DOWN goes Frazier
Time for Frazier to find a new line of work, eh?
Off topic, but like where did these dudes get money from to pay for this amazing event? Is Buffett buying ... I thought he was in a coma?
Ambac Assurance Corp, Ambac's main unit, paid $1 billion to get out of four contracts it had written to guarantee collateralized debt obligations, reducing the bond insurer's liabilities.
How long can this thing go down? At this rate we're going to see a depression level DOW - 40 - by Christmas.
To my norte neuvos up north-did you catch the funny report of going to the Morgan Stanley breakout veggie dinner presentation in Santa Fe?
Chellis Glendinning: Cheering for Morgan Stanley
Also, it was announced today that Thornburg-you all remember Thornburg? now has a new rating for counterpartycredit at D. It can't go lower. Further, Thornburg defaulted on a 12.2 million interest payment. Maybe the Thornburg people are getting used to it, since it faced a 1.8 billion in margin calls from the first of this year.
And Elcipse is a mystery, since it got enough cash to meet the payroll after letting the employees go on Friday of last week. It was desribed as a sugar daddy bridge loan.
How come they keep halting trading, or is something wrong with yahoo's ticker?
They have gone to PLAID.
7400? anyone? lol
Only in America - GM is still gree
Frazier = America
...punch drunk and near death...
I think I just saw Conjure cruise by on Wilshire Blvd, burning rubber and popping wheelies in a back-hoe he just bought for $5 and a can of dog food at that equipment sale out in the valley.
Pizza the Hut spotted in Irvine, checkin out the FDICs new digs.
Broward Horne,
I view complexity in terms of a network of feedback loops. The more you add, the smaller the controlled input stability range is so you have to dial back individual output to keep things steady
Kona,
Were you alluding to the barrier between bonds and cash falling?
MLM,
It might be best if we avoid the 'free market' discussion here as I get the feeling that if we met in person, we would find ourselves in agreement. It can be troublesome separating logic from opinion with only short paragraphs of text
Ok - now this is capitulation - so long as we aren't bungee jumping here.
Ring a ring o roses...
Moving 1/3 of trading capital into Treasury-only MM. I'm starting to get concerned here.
I love the last 15min of DOW live blogging, its a weird mix of submarine war movies (DIVE, DIVE) and horse race commentary (DOW noses past 76 support..)
Is Maria dancing on the desk screaming BUY BUY BUY yet?
skf touches 265
Last time I saw PCA was right after he saw the legendary "three candlesticks" formation appear on his chart. I fear that someone may have beat him severely with said candlesticks.
The TSX is getting hammered! It might close down 8%. wow
EHP - No standard macro text is about the "free market" either - they all include the public sector.
Levy's document explains where profits come from, and that they aren't some kind of strange accident that would be driven to zero under perfect competition.
It also explains that total profits in the economy will be decreased by any increase in household saving (unless compensated by public sector borrowing) -- like the one we are embarking on at the moment.
All of that, as bond guy likes to say, is an accounting identity.
I say, hang on to your hat, because the P's in P/E are likely to radically shrink. Hoocoodanode?
Chainsaw said
LMAO!!!
We should ban posting ultra short etf numbers on this blog.
Dear God:
As an addendum to my last request, please as well keep the Fed Funds Rate and thus Prime Rate low UNTIL we set the perm financing because prime .5% right now has us 2-3% lower than we pro forma'ed!
If i can't get the good permanent financing, i will gladly take reduced carry until stabilization so as to squeeze the three or four months of extra carry out of the project i'm going to need.
I mean, I was just going to play hardball with the already waaaay pregnant lender, but this way, WE ALL WIN.
Thanks much God!
DC1000
Rally here.
Johnnie Cash comments:
I fell into, into the burning ring of fire
I fell down, down, down, down into the deepest mire
and it burns, burns, burns, burns
the ring of fire, the ring of fire, the ring of fire
Note:
The family of Johnny and June-Carter Cash says they wont allow the song Ring of Fire to be used in ads for hemorrhoid-relief products. A TV producer got the idea after hearing the song on the radio while suffering from the condition.
REBear - sorry.
Ok - now this is capitulation - so long as we aren't bungee jumping here.
Speed | 11.20.08 - 3:50 pm
I don't think so.
Anonymous writes:
How come they keep halting trading, or is something wrong with yahoo's ticker?
let's bail them out
Broward Horne,
I view complexity in terms of a network of feedback loops. The more you add, the smaller the controlled input stability range is so you have to dial back individual output to keep things steady.
Problem is this doesn't work. At some point your intrusion becomes the dominate cause of complexity.
We'll end green in the last 5 min.
MLM,
Don't you mean the E in P/E is likely to radically shrink?
mock,
Did he really say cream?
Cash
Rules
Everything
Around
Me!
LOL! its from an ole Wu-Tang song. Somehow i dont think he was alluding to this.
However it do think it is a perfect word for the current deflationary environment.
..........
They call this equipment "yellow iron"
There were horror stories about its auctioning in the last San Diego housing bust. Acres and acres of it going for pennies on the dollar.
This stuff is not cheap to operate either. The oil and the cost of the operator can run almost 160$/hr.
This is just the beginning of the auctions here in SoCal. More to come, no bottom in sight.
................
I dont see it going to China either. It came from china! & asia
........
I see dead people.
pulling back on the rudder at 7600
But, but, but... Art "buy the nasdaq in March 2000" Hogan said we hit bottom
interesting Times writes:
REBear - sorry.
Until i buy them again and start making money
Rally gone.
SO MUCH FOR THE RALLY
Comrade Anonymous,
The individuals themselves are the feedback loops, along with other factors.
Time for a poll:
Do GS, C, JPM, BAC, and WFC lose all equity value in the next year?
Sweet, maybe Fulda will conquer Iceland ahead of schedule!
Classic stuff folks. Leverage induced destruction at its finest.
BH writes:
What you eventually figure out, if you spend the time, is that the only way to truly increase productivity is through standardization which is forced down into the toolset.
So...cubicles?
Analogy of US economy:
YouTube - THE BEST AIR RACE PILOT EVER!!!
below 7600
drill baby drill
Did dome hedgie go down?
C just under 2X yesterday's volume....that's the only thing close to capitulation I see.
Ciao
MS
TIMBER!!!!
Look out below....
Kristina--
Sorry about your circumstances. I would also encourage you to heed LawyerLiz's counsel (I'm also an atty, but not licensed in Fla., so not giving advice): don't use up all of your savings. I know you don't want to default on your mort, but which is worse, defaulting on your mort and having some money, or defaulting on your mort somewhat later and having exactly zero money?
PS I have a suspicion that one of these days, the in-laws will be moving back here to STL from Central Florida. Guess where they will be living if that happens?
Chateau XRegul8r, that's where.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
Does the union build factories?
...
In unity there is strength. I hope this country pulls itself together, instead of pulling apart or sloping sideways. Everyone's future depends on it.
Pavel Chichikov | 11.20.08 - 3:31 pm
Another way to view it: Do unions inhibit capital investors from building factories? I think Mexico, China, & Vietnam might be able to answer that question. As for unity, I think I agree with your comment, but it is a tad vague and pie-in-the-sky for me.
In the US's private sector, if the suffering was spread among all parties in that Unity Hug, we could pull together. However, with the Detroit Dinos, I have GM/F/C executives spending tens of thousands of dollars flying to hearings and being fought by people who have enjoyed great pensions, free education, free health insurance, and other good benefits.
Before you want us--non-affiliated folks--to "unify" with your cloister--automotive sector folks--I would like to see you make some sacrifices first. As it is now, it seems that the parties want everyone to sacrifice except the recipients of the bailout or not sacrifice as much as the non-affiliated folks.
After some reflection, I guess Patton was right: "Make other Americans sacrifice for your cause more than your group sacrifice for your cause." (Paraphrased)
This has been fun for the last 18 months, but the next stage may be beyond the imaginations of most people ...
STEVIE RAY VAUGHAN - CROSSFIRE
YouTube -
Sweet, maybe Fulda will conquer Iceland ahead of schedule!
Anonymous | 11.20.08 - 3:56 pm | #
Iceland has been in the concentration camp for a while now.
poor C
down almost 30% again today.
I'd buy at $1.00/sh.
EHP, Serf AG, et al: This is setting up for one of those classic Thursday to Tuesday situations. If we close on the lows, and we'll know in a few minutes, then tomorrow could well be cliff city. No?
Oops, yes. I meant E.
I am a buyer of C @ $.01!
why buy c at $1
they have zero equity
(TARP doesn't count)
time for CR to update the "crash" charts.
SOMEONE GO RING THE BELL!
any suicides on camera at CNBC yet?
Is maria screaming?
VIX 80+
QID closing in on 100...
Sorry for the ETF banter but that's just eye-opening...
Ciao
MS
closing in on the 75 handle, 74 possible? (DJIA)
Run to the hills.
Run for your lives.
uh oh
Off Topic:
Alliance Bank Faces Receivership
Los Angeles Business Journal Online - business news and information for Los Angeles California
The bank holding company on Thursday said its future was in doubt because of the deterioration of the Southern California real estate market.
Alliance, which has $1.1 billion in assets and six local branches, said its problems stem from souring construction loans, particularly loans for tract projects and single homes.
can i haz some more TARP?
GE has 10% divi... just sayin.
Yesterday morning I said that it was going to be an ugly day. A turning point, ugly kind of day. While not truly exceptional in some ways; it was in one way historically. The Big Three went back without the bailout.
Today is going to be ugly also. Very ugly.
nova: Homeless Ponys | 11.20.08 - 6:39 am
I rarely get anything right
does TARP count as part of GDP?
hal serious questio
With the market losing 400 points a day, we'll be all done before Christmas and we can all go home!
time for CR to update the "crash" charts.
crispy&cole
Yes and make that a Screen Saver please
SPY looks like a black diamond ski run at Alta UT.
Wow, rough day!
When does Wall street starting looking like the movie "I am Legend"??
what the world look like with no bid
REBear writes:
SOMEONE GO RING THE BELL!
PLEASE! Frazier's counting on you.
can i hasz kapitulation pleez?
Last one out turn off the lights please.
Back to back Lowry down days. Will we see a big advance over the next few days? Or something uglier? I have no particular leaning at this point.
Dear God Addendum #2:
One more thing while we we're at it. Please God, oh great one, please allow my bank to survive long enough to give me the required funds to finish my project. Then, God, grant them the ability to place my permanent financing as well. No one wants another law suit, God.
But if they can't place the perm, please do compel them to honor the construction financing, Prime Plus 50 BP INTEREST ONLY until such time as they can.
Thanks God.
DC1000
Torment of ® pulled forward from the last thread:
® writes:
I am. Remember what the conversation was about? I said Ken Lewis did what he said and was a straight shooter.
I saw BAC covered those debts, yes.
I was tormenting you for your petulance.
But... do you really want to make a stand about the good moral character of Ken Lewis?
Remember those those warehouse lines with CFC? Was that really anything other than an attempt to hold up the Treasury by pointing a gun at his own head? Because if that was just an attempt to transact sharp practice, man he sucks at risk assessment. Like really, way to TARP the economy, Braniac.
I mean let's be honest, it's one of those "incompetence or malice" sort of things. If he were a real straight shooter, I would expect a heart-felt mea culpa backed with some attempts to make amends for the national disaster he personally had a large hand in creating.
He took CFC's debt with the Fed there to hand him a sack of taxpayer cash to meet his obligations and hit him in the head with a bat if he flinched. Not exactly an indication of strong moral character.
Being a straight shooter is surrendering the personal fortune made at the expense of the US taxpayer. I don't think we'll see any of that soon.
8,000 I hardly even knew you. I feel kinda cheap and used after this one night stand....
....
RING RING
%#$@%@$#@#$ - tell 'em I'm busy
RING RING
Ok... HELLO
Yes comrade er sir.
No I wasn't responsible for that.
No sir all the suitcases are empty and I am following orders.
Well it is sort of funny.. no I don't think it is funny
sorry
Yes the 'borrowing' facility is working fine.
OK good bye
grumble grumble
mutters to self (found a couple suitcases under the sink to paint that S&P 776.76 ya stinkin' %$!$@%@$#$%!)
So most of those americans who had retirement savings have seen them cut in half in a matter of months. And their houses have lost value and may be underwater. And the job market sucks.
RIP American Consumer.
I think I'll finally be giving in and getting a video camera after christmas. Probably at the Circuit City going out of business sale.
yagi,
One interesting thing is the differences between unions in America, Germany, and China -- all different takes.
Volker the Viking,
I have learned that I cannot call the bottom in advance. The best I could hope for would be to track enough datasets, in high frequency, to realize when one has come -- and I certainly don't have the setup most hedge funds or brokerages do. Anyone working in a hedge fund or trading desk of a brokerage hanging out here?
If I had to guess, for fun and without reason, I think the crowd wants blood and maybe that blood is around s&p500 750
Dow 7,514.13 -483.15 -5.73%
Holy crap. S&P off 7%
I kinda wonder about that global bank holiday now:
FDR's Fireside Chat on Backing Up the Banking System
YouTube - FDR's Fireside Chat on Backing Up the Banking System-Part 1
Is there a need to store dirt? It seems as though many business opportunities revolve around the acquisition, storage and moving of "something." Oh, yeah ... there is also presentation, recycling ... of "something."
DC1000 -
When the cannibals are chasing you around the traffic circle, you'll wish you had saved that one and only favor from God. Just sayin'.
heres an alternative to a GM bailout
i stole the first line of the proposal from dr batra
1 US gov buys 100% of GM... cant cost more than several billion$ much less than the bailout proposed
2 lend/give 50% of the shares to all the workers at GM on an appropriate pro-rated level relative to years worked
3 give the GM workers the authority to hire managers , re negotiate a contract favorable to the company; 5 years to return the company to profitability; AND multiply stock price times 10
4 US gov prior to purchase agrees to share 50% of stock profits if any, with previous stock holders in exchange for friendly buyout
5 if GM workers are successful in meeting number 3 above give them the loaned stock (50% equity ownership
6 US government sells at a moderate pace the other 50% equity to private individuals and places proceeds from sale in a trust fund for paying social security benefits
wash rise and repeat for other dying corporations
Autoworkers in the Midwest have suffered plenty in the last generation. If their pensions are eliminated don't expect anyone to cry for you, or your job , wage or pension.
The ruling class will not be the ones to suffer in a race to the bottom.
REPORT FROM THE FRONT
TO: CENTRAL COMMITTEE
FROM: GENERAL B.P. FULDA
ALL OBJECTIVES IN UK ACHIEVED WITH
MINIMAL LOSS OF LIFE !
MAJOR PORTS UNDER OUR CONTROL,
SUBMARINE FORCES MOVING TO
EXPANDED PATROL AREAS!
DEBUT OF SECRET WEAPON IN ATLANTIC
THEATER IS IMMINENT!
BEST REGARDS,
FULDA
MLM:
if it gets to that, i'll take god's work into my own hands.
borkafatty writes:
Last one out turn off the lights please.
Last saw that billboard south of Seattle circa 1970
I've fallen and can't get up....
I can haz PPT?
EHP: I'm no expert, I'm going on historical situations at key moments of markets. This Thursday to Tuesady thing I learned from listening and reading. Of course, I could be wrong.
BTW: I'm not calling anything about a bottom. I know what the bottom will be, and we ain't even close.
Thanks Xreg, I just discussed that with my hubby. He just got some hopeful news on the workfront. Two Union guys just got axed for non performance and he's at the top of the list to get called...fingers crossed, this is a year long job they were on....
Asian markets tonight ought to be interesting.
btw, i'm eating the BEST BLT EVER right now.
CITIGROUP INC
(NYSE: C)
NEW Real-time: 4.80 Down 1.60 (25.00%) 3:57pm EThelp
Last Trade:\t4.75
Trade Time:\t3:42PM ET
Change:\tDown 1.65 (25.78%)
Prev Close:\t6.40
Open:\t6.13
Bid:\tN/A
Ask:\tN/A
1y Target Est:\t16.15
Day's Range:\t4.75 - 6.35
52wk Range:\t6.25 - 35.29
Volume:\t650,898,224
Avg Vol (3m):\t145,397,000
Market Cap:\t25.89B
P/E (ttm):\tN/A
EPS (ttm):\t-4.09
Div & Yield:\t0.64 (7.70%)
Burn, baby burn. Short Citi! Short Citi! Geronimo!
C @ $4.55...
I drink your milkshake.
That was the worst last minute rally I have ever seen.
Yes, yes,
We need prayers:
Dear God, please help bring Bush, Bernanke, Paulson and all these banker fuckers to justice and please allow the lynch mob to be kind and gentle as we restore justice to America and try all these people for Treason.
Ame
Anonymous writes:
I drink your milkshake.
LOL classic...thanks for the giggle in the face of doom.
So strange...on my screen of red, there alone is SalesForce.com (CRM) standing out in bright green, up almost 7% for the day.
Strange. I'm almost rooting for them to finish green, and up nicely. Just to dispel the gloom a little.
C @ $0.00... (I wish)
btw, i'm eating the BEST BLT EVER right now.
dc1000
LOL!
Glad to hear things are still looking good DC.
We just lost our opperations manager and we're shaking this up in SoCal. Not enough work to go around. Could get fugly quickly.