Being forced to delever is what we see here. A few months ago they had some room and the bait of money from Hanky-Poo...they have neither at this point.
Survival of the "fittest"
No chairs left and the music is just stopped. Still several people looking for one though.
"# Dems are postponing crucial vote on auto bailout- AP "
Yeah, just like they did for Goldman Sachs and company. What a joke. The Dems are more business as usual. It will be no different with them fucking it all up compared to the Republicans.
meanwhile, the treasury liquidates the Reserve Funds US Government Money Market Fund if anyone is keeping track. another day, another crash, another ad hoc choice.
Treasury Enters into Agreement
to Assist the Reserve Funds US Government Money Market Fund
Washington- The U.S. Treasury Department announced today that it agreed to assist with the liquidation of The Reserve Fund's U.S. Government Fund, due to unique and extraordinary circumstances.
The fund, which Treasury accepted into its temporary guarantee program for money market funds, has not made a claim to Treasury under the program. In a separate agreement with the fund, the Treasury has agreed to serve as a buyer of last resort for the fund's securities, which consist of short-term U.S. government and government sponsored enterprise securities.
This action is being taken to ensure that the fund is liquidated in an orderly and timely fashion.
The agreement grants the fund a 45-day period where it will continue to sell assets at or above their amortized cost. At the conclusion of this period, Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund will purchase any remaining securities at amortized cost, up to an amount required to ensure that each shareholder receives $1 for every share they own.
This extraordinary action is in response to the unique situation of the money market fund. This fund was permitted to suspend share redemptions as of September 17, in accordance with an order issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
No other funds participating in Treasury's temporary guarantee program received a similar order from the SEC. Because of this, Treasury does not foresee a need to take similar actions with regard to any other funds participating in Treasury's temporary guarantee program.
Treasury's agreement with the fund requires the fund's adviser and its trustees to waive their fees accrued after November 19 to the extent that fund shareholders do not receive distributions of $1 per share.
did the Dow breach the existing level today? it is hard to tell, but it appears to be close, if so, that doesn't look good
about a month or so ago, I heard a guy on CNN or CNBC (not a shill) say, well, no one understands the fundamentals, so all traders can do is trade on the technicals
why is the market down? with unemployment up, companies won't have to pay out as much in salaries for overpaid union workers, leaving more for bonuses for ceo's and upper management.
If you weren't keeping up on the older threads, when you get home from the office today, will you be checking those? Or should I repost here on this active thread?
Fine give the Big 3 the 25 Billion set aside for fuel efficient vehicles. Divide it up three ways and they get to burn that in a couple of months. GM is going down. Good riddance. Hope Chrysler is next. Hiring Ex-Home Depot CEO Nardelli was the f*cking stupidist manuever any automobile manufacturer could make. No more rewarding bad behavior. Time to let a new generation who "gets it" come up with vehicles that break the US free of their Petro-Overlords.
I think we'll see the interim market bottom in and around oil hitting $40 per barrel. If that reverses then the USD falls and stock prices rise in $ terms
Paulson: "There's going to be stress in the capital markets for a number of months here because housing prices are still declining and now I think it's moved beyond housing."
Something tells me those dirt movers would have been cheaper next week:
Re: Back in 2005, during the boom, the company sold a used hydraulic dirt excavator for $309,000. That same excavator changed hands Tuesday for just $50,000.
What do mutual funds do when the absolute price of stocks drop below their minimum price allowed?
They're also limited by being forced to hold so much cash. Do we need to see the annihilation of mutual funds via outflows before those rules are adjusted?
If that reverses then the USD falls and stock prices rise in $ terms
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.20.08 - 4:16 pm
maybe we can harness the superpower of the Zimbabwean market if the dollar drops hard
Great time to bail out auto makers and get people buying cars -- that's probably on the minds of millions of people, i.e, I wonder what the new cars will look like, gee, if I only had a job and some money...
Corsicana Jas Sympathizer: Layoffs are good to a point...2/3rds of the economy is service sector. No jobs, no need for services, less jobs. No manufacturing base, no exports, no jobs in a downturn = suicide. Not even outsourcing can save the greedy SOBs. Diversify they teach you.
Boo hoo. The NAFTA model is failed. Hallelujah. Down with C. Down with C. Run away, run away!
Wow, if it goes down much more I know what I'm buying.
You may want to re-think future cash flow trends and sales trends and think really hard on that and do a lot of DD and then take your time and really think about the future, and thn, relax and think about it late next week, and look at where things are, yah know...
Agreed Kona. All this talk of keeping the lights on at a bunch of car plants makes for sad comedy at a time when the source of one's next meal is probably going to be a more pressing concern for most people.
Kona writes:
Something tells me those dirt movers would have been cheaper next week:
Re: Back in 2005, during the boom, the company sold a used hydraulic dirt excavator for $309,000. That same excavator changed hands Tuesday for just $50,000.
I live not too far from the industrial area in North Portland, Oregon. Every lot that leases, rents, or sells heavy building equipment is completely chocked with Big Wheels, etc. 6 months ago empty. They cannot give them away. Portland tends to lag the national economy. We are only 6% down on residential values. With these lots full, and for about 2 months now, the Portland Metro area is toast on new construction. If we lag behind the nation, everyone else is pretty well f*cked. Guess we could see if the Chinese will buy the Big Wheels as they are going to pour massive $$$$ into infrastructure projects to no-where.
I propose The "Permanently High Plateau" Awards Committee, which will award the Irving Fisher Memorial Award for the most embarrassingly wrong prediction when this mess is all over. A honorarium will be attached. Payable in yuan.
we are officially approaching a nominal UST bubble - it will persist for some time (the last big bubble did didn't it!) but when it deflates, watch out - real suffering will be thy name
You are the best! Thanks! Almost took a job doing urban design in Abu Dhabi with a firm here in Portland. But with new baby on the way(11 days old today)I decided that being around was better than re-cycling Petro-dollars. Tempting as it was, and I could have a second wife too. Perhaps we need to do our own urbanism and urban land economics blog?
Dear God,
thank you for anticipating my Dear God Addendum #3, which was to be titled "Please Keep My Tenants in Business, Happy, and Healthy enough to pay my rents."
Man, God, I can really count on you - you readeth my mindeth.
Any guesses on Dear God Addendum #4? Hint Hint: it has to do with consumer spending...
5 is going to be about keeping building materials low and pitting subcontractors against each other in a bidding war death spiral to the floor, FOR MY BENEFIT.
I mean, to help the strength and stability of the banking system so I don't default.
Crap... Those unemployment numbers are scary. That is a lot of destroyed wealth in equity and housing. Many lost jobs... A lot of people are going to get a forced lesson in frugality.
I was already being cheap. Time to go into full hedgehog mode. No vacations, no eating out, cheap alcohol only, canceled gym membership, etc..
Boy the market really loved the way those congressmen slapped around the auto execs. We must destroy the economy in order to save it, the invisible hand of the free market demands this.
Long bond down 10 more basis points in 10 minutes. Ignore the stock markets folks, the real crash is going on in bonds. These long bond numbers predict depression for the rest of my natural life.
Are there any notable media outlets portraying the market crash as being in anticipation of an Obama presidency? I saw such a reference a few times online, but I don't know if they were outliers
Would it only be the 20% contingent who supported Bush until the end that encourage such stories?
if no big OpEx rally tomorrow, look out below. It WILL mean capitulation.Looks like Treas & the Fed are already there- no more TARP bailouts. Looks like Obama will need to fire up the printing presses in Jan. & give it directly to taxpayers to reinflate the economy before deflation totally kills it.
Kona writes:
Does anyone think Obama will step up to the microphone next week or have a fireside chat this weekend?
I thought he was extremely intelligent, but now I wonder. Doesn't he realize how completely and utterly fucked up this country is going to be on January 20? Why in the world does he want this job?
Reuters) - The U.S. financial system still needs at least $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion of tangible common equity to restore confidence and improve liquidity in the credit markets, Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Paul Miller said.
However, veteran banking analyst Richard Bove contradicted the idea of raising tangible common equity as a measure to improve liquidity.
"There seems to be no discernable reason why tangible common equity is a relevant indicator of anything other than market participants think it should be," Bove said in a note to clients.
"If a bank is to be liquidated and its businesses sold off, those businesses associated with the intangibles are likely to bring a much higher price than the businesses backed by tangible assets,"
I tell you, they'll call it the Second Great Depression, and the 1930s will be the First Great Depression. Same as the wars. Historians like consistent nomenclature.
P.S. I've seen a wild turkey fly. I've never understood that WKRP episode. What the heck was that about?
Aren't you being a little harsh and early on "Poor Barry?"
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 4:36 pm | #
No, actually, I was about to say "What a great country this is to have survived 8 years of the Bush Administration. The resilience of the people, the depth of character of the leaders, the sense of pride that we emerged intact despite the horrors thrust down upon us."
I was about to say that. Then I realized he still has two months in office and only the Lord knows what's going to happen in the next two months.
Regarding Obama, I did some research on the 3-month T-Bills. If you check the charts, the recent high was on 10-21. What date is 13 weeks from 10-21? 1-20-09 ... Obama is in for a world of hurt right on day one 1
When they said only God knew what those CDS's thingies were, they weren't fooling were they?
Well, I wonder what the DC1000 CDS Swap Spread has blown out to today.
Or perhaps they have collapsed on speculation dc1000 will receive a glorious bailout.
just keep them rates low god, thats all i ask for.
except for addendum 2, 3, 4 and the forthcoming 5.
I suppose, i COULD just be ok with the Tenant's defaulting right after they build out the spaces...leaving just enough personal net worth for me to go after in court, while i release the space at new market rates, but with a fully-built out commercial kitchen, office space, and others!
Sounds like a plan god!!
Addendum #6 - please make sure my Defaulted Tenants have enough network to make my deficiency judgments worth a shit on the secondary market!
Did something happen behind the scenes today? Realization of the effects of a GM collapse on CDS? Monster hedge fund collapse? The bond market move was MASSIVE and far in excess of anything justified by the stock market move.
Actually, it was Arthur Carlson. Les probably knew domesticated turkeys can't fly when dropped from a helicopter, since he did the agricultural reports.
Comrade Scared Shitless writes: If you voted for the current Piece Of Shit administration, I have ZERO sympathy for you.
I voted for Bush the second time!
I thought you all needed a civics lesson. You valued your democracy too little and were too cavalier with the stewardship of your nation. I wouldn't have wanted to be the one vote to obstruct the process of education.
I just think all this started with Paulson saying TARP wouldn't buy assets. I bet there were a lot of people waiting for that to settle up redemption requests and the like. Now they have to deleverage into a depressed market.
Insurance companies, asset and liability managers as well as pension funds have been actively receiving even as we touch the lowest yields since man began to walk upright.
Unfortunately most of the subprime foreclosures are not with Freddie or Fannie. The MSM needs to look at all the other lenders who gave out funny money due to poor underwriting and poor rating and slice and dice securitization. It is much much bigger than Freddie or Fannie. Scary big. I will try to dig up the numbers.
I gotta stop going to lunch with 30 minutes left in the trading day.
I keep doing this for the next 3 weeks, it is dfe. DOW 0000!
Well, I guess this is what deflation looks like.
Should we be surprised? We all know wages have not increased vs. inflation since the 70s. Therefore, debt has fueled all this bubbly, overpriced lifestyle we live or have to live with/in.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
The deleveraging. Hurts now doesn't it. Well, just maybe homes will go back to 3X income, even here in most of South Orange County.
Also, about the boomers. Must really hurt to know 50% of that debt-ridden 401K is gone.
Buffet. OUCH! 50% even his beloved BH preferred A.
Finally, I guess this is what a 50% firesale looks like worldwide.
Just think with 50%, it will only take 100% gain to get back to where we were before the slide started. Funny how that works, isn't it?
Maybe just maybe we as a nation will begin to rethink our standard of living and what we expect in life.
"Does anyone think Obama will step up to the microphone next week or have a fireside chat this weekend?
Does anyone think Obama will step up to the microphone next week or have a fireside chat this weekend?"
No, remember we only have one Prez at a time--er, oh wait I guess we currently don't have one.
Interesting O hasn't named a treasury secy yet. I guess he doesn't want to hurt Hank's credibility.
doing well. we emptied the residential pipeline a while ago and are sitting on just a handful of lots, all of which are presold, just waiting for takedown' per contract.
on the CRE side, the last deal we have that was sourced in the 'old days' is under construction right now, preleased.
thus, my prayers for low rates once we stabilize.
man, that would be a boon! interest rates at 2/3's of what we expected!
mommmmammamamam would get that new pair of shoes fo sho!
and in the meantime, we have 100's and 100's of lots worth of raw land sitting fallow, unleveraged, waiting this out. we'll buy out many of the LP's at the bottom like we always do and then be happier for it in 5-8 years.
so basically, everything i have is in the 'new world thinking' except for the one mixed use deal in DC - and please god, keep those rates low!
fallonPDX,
Oh I know the default delta between private and agency mortgages, so no need to look it up on my account. I just posted the snippet because it is breaking news.
Now we do need the low rates as an emergency medicine. But this too will lead to trouble. However, we must survive the short-run before we can fix the long-run.
Side note: Last time I went to Baby Gap at the local upscale urban mall, they refused to validate my parking. This and keeping stock limited to the floor helps the bottom line. They are still zombie retailers never-the-less.
No, I just got this picture in my head. We are about 2 days, maybe less from the fall out. Other failures are already in motion. Somehere in Scandanavia, or the Baltics? I think it is a Scandanavian country.
No, get real. James Buchanan didn't care whether states seceded from the union.
Worst President except for Buchanan.
sportsfan | 11.20.08 - 4:32 pm | #
You have to admit though that he is giving Jimmy B a run for the money, but yeah I have to agree that Jimmy B was worse. W. is almost in a class by himself given not only the scale, but the breadth of his screw ups. Sort of like he was out to top each crappy prez of the past. Nixonian misuse of federal power to attack political foes, check. Harding and Grant like venal corruption, check. Get us into a unwarrented quagmire of a war like LBJ, check and check again. Crash the economy like Hoover, check. Add in a few new ones that other prez didnt to make up for screw ups that were not available to him. Sitting back and watching a major American City drown, sort of makes up for not being able to do a Jacksonian "trail of tears" routine.
If it only snowed five feet and I had no shoes to wear...and of course we need a better war....sigh...Greatest Generation, they had all the fun man and got fat on all those veterans benefits and social security.
Got yeah man. BTW what is up with the screaming headline like that? So we should forget about how hosed this economy is or that we should now start freaking out and start hiding in the basement.
Hey, look on the bright side. At least we won't have to hear any more grumpy old folks bitching about how bad the Great Depression was.......
-Tater
Dude, they are all dead. We are the grumpy old folks you hear who have already lost 50% of the 401k's and 40%-70% of the "retirement investment" in our homes.
Yeah, I've got friends that were margined entering this interesting time. Nasty turn of events for folks busy at work and expecting Uncle Ben to keep everything on an even keel so markets can always go up or at worst sideways for a while.
OT-My game plan: Move out of unaffordable 3 bedroom townhouse into more affordable 2 bedroom apartment. Take equity from town house and invest it into the market. Give me six months to implement.
Big ? writes:
Pre-1939 - WWI was the Great War. After that it became World War I. Bc after that we had to number them.
we call the previous depression the Great Depression. Why not call it World Depression II.
That's what I was saying on the other thread, Big. Although if I recall from postwar historical texts, "First" and "Second" were more common at first, and the Roman numerals didn't take hold until later.
While all this plays out, here in Maryland, some people just don't Get It yet: I walked past some yutz in the halls grumbling how he can't sell his house that is "worth" $850,000 and it might be "worth" only $750,000 now. Oh, the poor thing!
I doubt he could sell it for half that price today, but one needs to remember that the median household incom for the state is only about $65,000 - even in the wealthy counties, I believe it barely cracks $100,000. But hey, buying houses at 7 to 8 times your income still makes sense, right? Hahahaha... wow!
OT-from today's San Jose Mercury: a quarterly survey of 509 Bay area CEO's found that business confidence plunged to a record low (32), and for every company planning to hire 3 companies plan to have layoffs, and that 50% of the CEOs believe that the recession will last another 5 quarters and 41% think it could last longer.
Somali Pirate Corp. to spin off non performing business unit.
In a expected move, Somali Pirate Corp
is selling Davie Jones Locker to Foot locker for an estimated $500. The new company will be call Davies Foot locker.
-Tater writes:
Hey, look on the bright side. At least we won't have to hear any more grumpy old folks bitching about how bad the Great Depression was.......
And now it's go time - bankrupt the USA, kill the dollar and every economy in the world, stifle the growth of China, create a one-world currency and bank, and enslave us all for ever!
94 bottles of Yen on the wall
first
emo?
sigh
Wow, S&P took a hit.
94 bottles of Yen
If one of those bottles should happen to fall
93 bottles of Yen on the wall
awwww....
ouch
just had to try that one time. and no gizmos or gadgets. just luck
Well, now, that is quite the headline.
jayzus.
Wow, the mortgage pig relly is awesome.
Enough to make me think about switching permanently to Firefox.
Nice one.
Er, exciting last 15 minutes on the markets, eh?
bargains galore! get yours before they go bankrupt!
10-year Treasury showing good support at π
533, still climbing
Things got to get real cheap for unemployed people to afford them.
Now, that's a proper headline, CR!
Being forced to delever is what we see here. A few months ago they had some room and the bait of money from Hanky-Poo...they have neither at this point.
Survival of the "fittest"
No chairs left and the music is just stopped. Still several people looking for one though.
Ciao
MS
America, we hardly knew you...
how do i dollar cost average with no job?
oh, you mean that theory breaks down when you need it the most - thanks
monta's ankle writes:
how do i dollar cost average with no job?
Credit.... errrr.. nevermind
BRK.A\t77,500.00 -6,500.00\t(-7.74%)
Okay. Now this is starting to hurt. Kick me when I am down. Mr. Market your invisible hand sure can give a sound bitch slap.
Wasn't it like -200 Monday, +150 Tuesday, -400 Wednesday, and now -450 today?
I kid you not....as soon as the bell rang there was at least 4 fire trucks that went passed my house sirens blaring....was very fitting for the day.
Ciao
MS
but i thought WB was always right!
Is tomorrow FULL capitulation?
Seems like only yesterday when the Tech Crash was worse...
"# Dems are postponing crucial vote on auto bailout- AP "
Yeah, just like they did for Goldman Sachs and company. What a joke. The Dems are more business as usual. It will be no different with them fucking it all up compared to the Republicans.
Well, that was fun.
IIRC from yesterday bear chart, we need to have a significant rally just so that this crash is ONLY as bad as the GD crash. Madness
meanwhile, the treasury liquidates the Reserve Funds US Government Money Market Fund if anyone is keeping track. another day, another crash, another ad hoc choice.
hp-1286: Treasury Enters into Agreement to Assist the Reserve Fund’s US Government Money Market Fund
Treasury Enters into Agreement
to Assist the Reserve Funds US Government Money Market Fund
Washington- The U.S. Treasury Department announced today that it agreed to assist with the liquidation of The Reserve Fund's U.S. Government Fund, due to unique and extraordinary circumstances.
The fund, which Treasury accepted into its temporary guarantee program for money market funds, has not made a claim to Treasury under the program. In a separate agreement with the fund, the Treasury has agreed to serve as a buyer of last resort for the fund's securities, which consist of short-term U.S. government and government sponsored enterprise securities.
This action is being taken to ensure that the fund is liquidated in an orderly and timely fashion.
The agreement grants the fund a 45-day period where it will continue to sell assets at or above their amortized cost. At the conclusion of this period, Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund will purchase any remaining securities at amortized cost, up to an amount required to ensure that each shareholder receives $1 for every share they own.
This extraordinary action is in response to the unique situation of the money market fund. This fund was permitted to suspend share redemptions as of September 17, in accordance with an order issued by the Securities and Exchange Commission.
No other funds participating in Treasury's temporary guarantee program received a similar order from the SEC. Because of this, Treasury does not foresee a need to take similar actions with regard to any other funds participating in Treasury's temporary guarantee program.
Treasury's agreement with the fund requires the fund's adviser and its trustees to waive their fees accrued after November 19 to the extent that fund shareholders do not receive distributions of $1 per share.
The Second Depression?
Disclaimer: I don't believe in technical analysis in terms of its internal mathematical credibility as a form investment Newtonian physics
but, a lot of traders seem to act on it, even if they don't, either
someone posted a link yesterday that, after the high 7000s on the Dow, the next level of "support" was down near 3500
Dow Market Plunge Watch
did the Dow breach the existing level today? it is hard to tell, but it appears to be close, if so, that doesn't look good
about a month or so ago, I heard a guy on CNN or CNBC (not a shill) say, well, no one understands the fundamentals, so all traders can do is trade on the technicals
Yikes!
NYMEX Gasoline RBOB
spot\t
1.1207
1 month\t
1.0731
2 month\t
1.1042
It's like a ride on one of those drop towers. There will be a bottom, but you can't see it coming. Thus the fear/thrill.
The ten year plots on google finance show all three of the markets under water by double digits.
Its been a decade and no increase in value. Some got hella wealthy tho...
Sad.
....
WB is learning that beating the market is very difficult
and when the time comes, reversion to the mean is a beatch
he knows all about it, but believed that he was different
sorry - you're a coin flipper too now
Formula 444. Goes DOWN so smooth.....
serf Alan Greenspend: please translate your post.
why is the market down? with unemployment up, companies won't have to pay out as much in salaries for overpaid union workers, leaving more for bonuses for ceo's and upper management.
Worst president ever.
It sliced through 800 on the SPX like slicing through butter -- trouble ahead.
We might reach 1933 lows (%) by christmas.. it is a christmas miracle!
Man, I'll bet PCA is feeling the persecution now.
WTI Crude\t$48.90\t$-5.21 -9.62%\t20:47
CRVIX is a lagging indicator: 703 and rising
Dear God,
If you weren't keeping up on the older threads, when you get home from the office today, will you be checking those? Or should I repost here on this active thread?
Please get back to me before 'tini time.
Thanks,
DC1000
Man, I'll bet PCA is feeling the persecution now.
MLM | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 4:14 pm | #
Nonsense, I'm sure he stopped out and flipped short at precisely the right time. He's the richest guy on the board.
Fine give the Big 3 the 25 Billion set aside for fuel efficient vehicles. Divide it up three ways and they get to burn that in a couple of months. GM is going down. Good riddance. Hope Chrysler is next. Hiring Ex-Home Depot CEO Nardelli was the f*cking stupidist manuever any automobile manufacturer could make. No more rewarding bad behavior. Time to let a new generation who "gets it" come up with vehicles that break the US free of their Petro-Overlords.
I think we'll see the interim market bottom in and around oil hitting $40 per barrel. If that reverses then the USD falls and stock prices rise in $ terms
Yes. Update the Chart of Doom soon please.
Paulson: "There's going to be stress in the capital markets for a number of months here because housing prices are still declining and now I think it's moved beyond housing."
ABX-HE-AAA 07-2
off 15% this week at 31.
CMBX-NA-AAA 5
714 bp, up from the weekly low of 306 bp.
He's the richest guy on the board.
Except for popeye.
Something tells me those dirt movers would have been cheaper next week:
Re: Back in 2005, during the boom, the company sold a used hydraulic dirt excavator for $309,000. That same excavator changed hands Tuesday for just $50,000.
What's the opposite of cliff diving?
The treasury bond futures are up five handles.
So the next candy bar for the economy will be the bailout of the auto industry?
I told ya - 3 more years to bottom - can you say Dow 4000 or less?
ALT-A: The Risk Abatement Disaster is Coming « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
And here is an update on the mess to come:
Alt-A Losses Outstripping Expectations, Moody’s Says : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
And that is only ALT-A - not even looking at Neg-Am POA's yet!
Yipes!
duarte -- no. not the "second depression", rather the "greater depression".
Duarte, it's a press release from the US treasury. they are bailing out of any support for money market funds.
my analysis says they think they are either, no longer in danger (ha!) or need to free up the funds because the risk is to great.
here is the memory hole for the fund -
U.S. Treasury - Office of Domestic Finance - Treasury’s Temporary Guarantee Program for Money Market Funds
This is the chart to see
Dow Market Plunge Watch
Just setting up for a huge options experation rally.
What do mutual funds do when the absolute price of stocks drop below their minimum price allowed?
They're also limited by being forced to hold so much cash. Do we need to see the annihilation of mutual funds via outflows before those rules are adjusted?
Come on, that was no crash.
What's the opposite of cliff diving?
Pigs flying?
a festivis for the restivis
The Great Great Depression.
If that reverses then the USD falls and stock prices rise in $ terms
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.20.08 - 4:16 pm
maybe we can harness the superpower of the Zimbabwean market if the dollar drops hard
AAPL 80.49
Wow, if it goes down much more I know what I'm buying.
We'll see what the Elliott Wave folks have to say; webinar for subscribers beginning in 20 minutes.
Seems like full capitulation -- holdout money managers and individuals panic selling -- will be tomorrow or Monday or Tuesday?
Great time to bail out auto makers and get people buying cars -- that's probably on the minds of millions of people, i.e, I wonder what the new cars will look like, gee, if I only had a job and some money...
Time for a poll:
Do GS, C, JPM, BAC, and WFC lose all equity value in the next year?
Reformed Dope Brontide,
Maybe wait for AAPL to hit 50 before you consider it a long candidate.
dollar hitting 88.00 Hmmm got dollars?
All the leverage and structured finance = margin calls!!!!!!!!
We're down in crazy ville here...we may slink down some more, but I bet we get a snap back, especially in financials.
I need to make money on the snap back to short the crap out of this once again when we get back to 9000
CR needs to save "Crash" for tomorrow.
"get yours before they go bankrupt" - Funny!
Speed,
Word is they're going to do an Arrested Development feature film
Corsicana Jas Sympathizer: Layoffs are good to a point...2/3rds of the economy is service sector. No jobs, no need for services, less jobs. No manufacturing base, no exports, no jobs in a downturn = suicide. Not even outsourcing can save the greedy SOBs. Diversify they teach you.
Boo hoo. The NAFTA model is failed. Hallelujah. Down with C. Down with C. Run away, run away!
Why the worst may be over
CNN/Money, April 2008
i like the great repression
Dow off 47% since the ATH. Dow off 89% 1929-1933. So we are halfway there!!!
Off to the other Las Vegas tomorrow. You all take care.
DOW jumped back into the time machine. We're all back to June 1997.
Nice....
Lot's of leverage left to burn through...
GM and Ford...let the oil giants bail em out.
5 years out, DOW 3K
10 years out, maybe double that
Cheers all
Well thank goodness we have Hope and Change, yes we can..........ROFL.
Wow, if it goes down much more I know what I'm buying.
Sell Mortimer, Sell!!!!
YouTube - Trading Places Final Exchange Scene & Explanation
Why the worst may be over
Last Updated: April 25, 2008: 11:23 AM EDT
LOL
Agreed Kona. All this talk of keeping the lights on at a bunch of car plants makes for sad comedy at a time when the source of one's next meal is probably going to be a more pressing concern for most people.
The Great Unwinding continues...like a tsunami taking out all levered assets in its way...
dow 7000 is the next major support level.
tomorrow is triple witching day for the market.
so, some thread music!
YouTube - Steely Dan - "Black Friday"
Kona writes:
Something tells me those dirt movers would have been cheaper next week:
Re: Back in 2005, during the boom, the company sold a used hydraulic dirt excavator for $309,000. That same excavator changed hands Tuesday for just $50,000.
I live not too far from the industrial area in North Portland, Oregon. Every lot that leases, rents, or sells heavy building equipment is completely chocked with Big Wheels, etc. 6 months ago empty. They cannot give them away. Portland tends to lag the national economy. We are only 6% down on residential values. With these lots full, and for about 2 months now, the Portland Metro area is toast on new construction. If we lag behind the nation, everyone else is pretty well f*cked. Guess we could see if the Chinese will buy the Big Wheels as they are going to pour massive $$$$ into infrastructure projects to no-where.
October 1985 S&P500 was 180, 7% return for 23 years brings you about 800, 6% return 650, 5% return 500.
"I'll have the graph soon ..."
... and it will show that this is MORE SEVERE than the Great Depression.
Get me rewrite on that headline!
Nemo, that was great, so much has chnged since Last Updated: April 25, 2008!
I want to see Colbert interviewing Bernanke.
"Mr. Bernanke. Great Depression or the Greatest Depression?"
Thread dance. Everyone's too chicken to go long
World Depression 2
Volume highest on the NYSE since 10/10 ... options expire tomorrow ... tomorrow's going to be either way up, or way down =]
Was there any other possible outcome?
No way an historic housing & credit bubble wouldn't turn out far worse than a tech bust. Just no way.
OT
Ruh Roh!
China has said its employment outlook is "grim", amid worries that economic problems could lead to social unrest.
Unemployment is expected to rise next year as businesses close because of a lack of orders.
Chinese leaders are already warning that an economic downturn could lead to further protests by those facing financial hardships.
Meng Jianzhu, minister of public security, this week warned the police to be "fully aware of the challenges brought by the global financial crisis".
He said officers should be careful about how they handle "mass incidents", Beijing's euphemism for protests by ordinary people.
BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | China fears grow over job losses
Hey Anoddamoose,
I just did Vegas last weekend. I'm a poker player -- made $1,500 and paid for my trip. Hope the luck rubs off...Good luck!
Dear God:
I forgot that I did go long USD in april with a big futures contract.
I can't even do the math on that one, so I'm guess I'm good.
But I didnt ask for anything on that one!!!
Your man in piece(s),
DC1000
The 30-year bond is down to a 3.56% yield! 34 basis points in ONE DAY!
900 visitors...the end is near.
Just how many wheels can fall off this cart before we run out of wheels?
C market cap is $25 billion...thank you Hank...
where's 'plunge protection team' when one needs it?!
October 1985 S&P500 was 180, 7% return for 23 years brings you about 800, 6% return 650, 5% return 500.
Need the dividend yield.
fallonpdx,
The article is way over the top arrogant, but you might find some enjoyment in it for the small mention of Portland
Conjure is enjoying a cigar.
Nonsense, I'm sure he stopped out and flipped short at precisely the right time. He's the richest guy on the board.
Anonymous | 11.20.08 - 4:15 pm | #
To PCA . . . the richest man in Bedford Falls!
I wonder what MUF withdrawals look like today. Isn't there a Fed facility to cover CoH shortfalls?
in other news, production of a real ★favorite★ on the US car market was halted.
Instead of calling it the Great Depression I suggest a new name.
The Jessica Simpson
Possible usage
Wow, the market really to a Jessica
or
Man! Were Simpsoned
Good thing congress passed TARP...the market could have crashed.
900 visitors...the end is near.
Comrade Kristina | 11.20.08 - 4:25 pm |
~~~~~~~~
nah, the party's just getting started, weeee!
Good find on "The Worst May Be Over", Nemo.
I propose The "Permanently High Plateau" Awards Committee, which will award the Irving Fisher Memorial Award for the most embarrassingly wrong prediction when this mess is all over. A honorarium will be attached. Payable in yuan.
Nominations welcome.
Ruh Roh is Rite!
Dow 7,552.29 -444.99 (-5.56%)
S&P 500 752.44 -54.14 (-6.71%)
Nasdaq 1,316.12 -70.30 (-5.07%)
10y bond 3.02% -0.11 (-3.51%)
No chairs left and the music is just stopped. Still several people looking for one though. - MS
Several? More like tens of millions of baby boomers. So many are ruined financially. Sad.
Got Money?
dear dc1000
i dont need to read the earlier thread to know your desires, nor reply here, there or anywhere for you know my decision
warning, i may grant your prayer that treasuries are banished to the basement
but if your tenants decide to wander away from the deal, and wander for 40 years into the desert, thats not my problem, ok?
sincerely
well you know who
Hey Nova!,
How about this one?
BUSHWACKED!
Anoddamoose, will be in LV Sunday morning, staying at Imperial, come by for a beer!
Kevin Ferry calling the bottom...geez..
10 yr with a nearly 2% yield handle
insanity, really
we are officially approaching a nominal UST bubble - it will persist for some time (the last big bubble did didn't it!) but when it deflates, watch out - real suffering will be thy name
Anonymous writes:
Worst president ever.
Anonymous
EVER!!
Sometime in summer 2007, Hank Paulson was quoted as saying something to the effect of: "This is the strongest economy I've seen in my lifetime."
EHP,
You are the best! Thanks! Almost took a job doing urban design in Abu Dhabi with a firm here in Portland. But with new baby on the way(11 days old today)I decided that being around was better than re-cycling Petro-dollars. Tempting as it was, and I could have a second wife too. Perhaps we need to do our own urbanism and urban land economics blog?
Anonymous writes:
Worst president ever.
Anonymous
EVER!!
What about the evil double-agent President in 24 that tried to kill Jack Bauer?
Just did a quick calculation. Apparently my portfolio is up 1,912% since May. That's pretty crazy.
It's a shame that I closed my GGP and HIG puts early. I'd have broken 20x.
Thanks to all the advice I've gotten in here. I couldn't have done it without your support.
-GH
Angry Saver writes:
No chairs left and the music is just stopped. Still several people looking for one though. - MS
Several? More like tens of millions of baby boomers. So many are ruined financially. Sad.
and most havn't put a sold sign of their house yet, they believe top dollar will be waiting since it's different in their town.
BUSHWACKED!
iggy | 11.20.08 - 4:29
Good but too obvious - got to think out of the box
How about - Cheney
Oh my god dude - your going to Cheney if you don't sell all your GM stock that Grandpa left you.
Dude - its to late. it isnt worth anything. I am so Jessica'ed
anon writes:
duarte -- no. not the "second depression", rather the "greater depression".
anon
Best yet:
The Great Bush Depression
Describes it all.
Dear God,
thank you for anticipating my Dear God Addendum #3, which was to be titled "Please Keep My Tenants in Business, Happy, and Healthy enough to pay my rents."
Man, God, I can really count on you - you readeth my mindeth.
Any guesses on Dear God Addendum #4? Hint Hint: it has to do with consumer spending...
5 is going to be about keeping building materials low and pitting subcontractors against each other in a bidding war death spiral to the floor, FOR MY BENEFIT.
I mean, to help the strength and stability of the banking system so I don't default.
Thanks, God!
fallonpdx,
Don't thank me yet until you read the mention of Portland
Worst president ever.
Anonymous
EVER!!
Comrade Scared Shitless | 11.20.08 - 4:29 pm | #
No, get real. James Buchanan didn't care whether states seceded from the union.
Worst President except for Buchanan.
In honor of S. Colbert, I dub thee :
"The GREATEST Depression"
BREAKING NEWS....
Somali pirates to buy C
900 visitors...the end is near.
Amen Sister, amen
@CR: "Another day of cliff diving."
Methinks this is getting to be more like jumping out of airplanes ... without a parachute.
If you voted for the current Piece Of Shit administration, I have ZERO sympathy for you.
And anybody who tells me that there were other causes....BLAH BLAH BLAH, is talking out of their Ass!
The people in charge knew what they were doing, and have brought this country....nay, the world...to it's knees.
sportsfan writes:
No, get real. James Buchanan didn't care whether states seceded from the union.
Well, it would depend on which states
Crap... Those unemployment numbers are scary. That is a lot of destroyed wealth in equity and housing. Many lost jobs... A lot of people are going to get a forced lesson in frugality.
I was already being cheap. Time to go into full hedgehog mode. No vacations, no eating out, cheap alcohol only, canceled gym membership, etc..
People will never name kids George again, like how many kids do you know named Herbert (or Adolf).
Kona
Or Genghis?
Boy the market really loved the way those congressmen slapped around the auto execs. We must destroy the economy in order to save it, the invisible hand of the free market demands this.
Methinks this is getting to be more like jumping out of airplanes ... without a parachute.
Comrade Wisdom Seeker
As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.
EHP,
Oh I am no kool-aid drinker on Portland. Quite the opposite.
Long bond down 10 more basis points in 10 minutes. Ignore the stock markets folks, the real crash is going on in bonds. These long bond numbers predict depression for the rest of my natural life.
30 year T plus 8 and change
GOT TBT?
no downside, and leveraged earthquake insurance
Of course. The auto companies don't have a plan. Nothing all bright and shiny like TARP. They need to get an acronym at leat.
Pavel: You seem as if you have lived through something like this before?
Does anyone think Obama will step up to the microphone next week or have a fireside chat this weekend?
No, get real. James Buchanan didn't care whether states seceded from the union.
Worst President except for Buchanan.
Meh. Without those southern electoral votes, we would never have had bush.
I say again: Worst president ever.
Worst President except for Buchanan.
sportsfan
Aren't you being a little harsh and early on "Poor Barry?"
Are there any notable media outlets portraying the market crash as being in anticipation of an Obama presidency? I saw such a reference a few times online, but I don't know if they were outliers
Would it only be the 20% contingent who supported Bush until the end that encourage such stories?
CR - it would be nice to see the graph with the '73 crash starting from the high in '68
Does anyone think Obama will step up to the microphone next week or have a fireside chat this weekend?
No.
Not that i like Greenspan but he did say "irrational exuberance" in 1996.
Jeebus. Pavel just got more practice. He is ahead of everyone in how to handle a Jessica event.
Pony TimeSharing and iggy,
My baby-boomer mother moved in this year. This may be a new trend for us Gen-Xers.
Everything she had going was shot to hell so she is back to school trying to get into social work!
"As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly"
LOL.....Les Nesman WKRP in Cincy.
I loved that show.
if no big OpEx rally tomorrow, look out below. It WILL mean capitulation.Looks like Treas & the Fed are already there- no more TARP bailouts. Looks like Obama will need to fire up the printing presses in Jan. & give it directly to taxpayers to reinflate the economy before deflation totally kills it.
Conjure promised Liz a limit down day
Kona writes:
Does anyone think Obama will step up to the microphone next week or have a fireside chat this weekend?
I thought he was extremely intelligent, but now I wonder. Doesn't he realize how completely and utterly fucked up this country is going to be on January 20? Why in the world does he want this job?
dear dc1000
you are beginning to vex me
the first prayer was to be charged to Christmas
the second to your birthday
prayers 3, 4 and 5, well
by my accounting you are shy on your margin prayer account
keep it up and you may need a credit default swap, uh i mean insurance policy against being struck by lightning just prior to a big flood
best wishes
you know who
EHP: Hard to anticipate O when the meltdown had already gone down 10% by Jan 2008. So, no: Most of that stuff is too weak to stick.
yourkillingmelarry writes:
"As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly"
LOL.....Les Nesman WKRP in Cincy.
Actually, it was Carlson's(the big guy) idea. Les was just the on the scene reporter. "Oh The Humanity!!"
sorry if a repost...
Reuters) - The U.S. financial system still needs at least $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion of tangible common equity to restore confidence and improve liquidity in the credit markets, Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Paul Miller said.
However, veteran banking analyst Richard Bove contradicted the idea of raising tangible common equity as a measure to improve liquidity.
"There seems to be no discernable reason why tangible common equity is a relevant indicator of anything other than market participants think it should be," Bove said in a note to clients.
"If a bank is to be liquidated and its businesses sold off, those businesses associated with the intangibles are likely to bring a much higher price than the businesses backed by tangible assets,"
I tell you, they'll call it the Second Great Depression, and the 1930s will be the First Great Depression. Same as the wars. Historians like consistent nomenclature.
P.S. I've seen a wild turkey fly. I've never understood that WKRP episode. What the heck was that about?
Yes we can, we can make 1000!
970 Visitors Online
Fair Economist --
If the best place for money now really is loaning it to the U.S. Government for 30 years at 3.5% interest... Oh dear God.
I was walking to work and heard this women say to her kids "OK, I can't get no more money on da credit card."
Kid1 "Mom, you sure?"
Mom " Yeah baby."
Kid2 "I'm hungry!"
Mom 'Well, we stop at the hotdog stand."
This is 7am. In DC you can get 2 hotdogs, chips and a can of soda for $3.50 It is the only deal in tow
Aren't you being a little harsh and early on "Poor Barry?"
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 4:36 pm | #
No, actually, I was about to say "What a great country this is to have survived 8 years of the Bush Administration. The resilience of the people, the depth of character of the leaders, the sense of pride that we emerged intact despite the horrors thrust down upon us."
I was about to say that. Then I realized he still has two months in office and only the Lord knows what's going to happen in the next two months.
Regarding Obama, I did some research on the 3-month T-Bills. If you check the charts, the recent high was on 10-21. What date is 13 weeks from 10-21? 1-20-09 ... Obama is in for a world of hurt right on day one 1
Instead of adjusting for future value and the impacts of inflation, we can now adjust for deflation and current value.
"Why in the world does he want this job?"
Something it occurred to me to wonder about months ago. The only decent reason would be patriotism.
Shit, God.
I mean, Wow, God.
When they said only God knew what those CDS's thingies were, they weren't fooling were they?
Well, I wonder what the DC1000 CDS Swap Spread has blown out to today.
Or perhaps they have collapsed on speculation dc1000 will receive a glorious bailout.
just keep them rates low god, thats all i ask for.
except for addendum 2, 3, 4 and the forthcoming 5.
I suppose, i COULD just be ok with the Tenant's defaulting right after they build out the spaces...leaving just enough personal net worth for me to go after in court, while i release the space at new market rates, but with a fully-built out commercial kitchen, office space, and others!
Sounds like a plan god!!
Addendum #6 - please make sure my Defaulted Tenants have enough network to make my deficiency judgments worth a shit on the secondary market!
However, veteran banking analyst Richard Bove contradicted the idea of raising tangible common equity as a measure to improve liquidity.
Bove?! LMAO. Ask him how his lehman calls are doing. What a clown.
Americans just need to go shopping more.
And speak Welsh.
"Why in the world does he want this job?"
Well it sure as hell isn't for the chicks.
By the time your young Mugabe takes over, all he will have left to spread is Barney Frank's legs.
I think O would be better off with 6000 dow when he gets in......
not saying it's good for us serfs..
"If the best place for money now really is loaning it to the U.S. Government for 30 years at 3.5% interest... "
Wasn't that their plan all along? All your capital are belong to us.
Pavel, we can only pray that is indeed the reason, I believe it was. We are going to need a strong leader going forward.
"Actually, it was Carlson's(the big guy) idea. Les was just the on the scene reporter. "Oh The Humanity!!"'
I stand corrected. That was probably one of the funniest episodes in that series.
ova: Pony TimeSharing writes:
People will never name kids George again, like how many kids do you know named Herbert (or Adolf). Or Genghis?
no shit
and have ya noticed... yours (and my) conservative friends no longer call it
"nuquelar" power either,
glad that fads over
P.S. I've seen a wild turkey fly.
Note: Wild Turkey and flying do NOT mix.
I picked a real shitty time to give up drinking vodka; does anyone have CSC's number?
(whoops, cancel that graph request)
ive got it Kona, but I left it in CA. Argh!
sayeth the Onion
Black Man Given Nations Worst Job
Black Man Given Nation's Worst Job | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
Did something happen behind the scenes today? Realization of the effects of a GM collapse on CDS? Monster hedge fund collapse? The bond market move was MASSIVE and far in excess of anything justified by the stock market move.
Actually, it was Arthur Carlson. Les probably knew domesticated turkeys can't fly when dropped from a helicopter, since he did the agricultural reports.
Glad I bought a 36 pack of beer yesterday. Hey, at least gas is at $2 a gallon....AM I RITE?!
My mom won't get out cause she says it won't go to zero
does anyone have CSC's number?
What's it gonna take to drag his butt back here?
Comrade Scared Shitless writes:
If you voted for the current Piece Of Shit administration, I have ZERO sympathy for you.
I voted for Bush the second time!
I thought you all needed a civics lesson. You valued your democracy too little and were too cavalier with the stewardship of your nation. I wouldn't have wanted to be the one vote to obstruct the process of education.
I hope you are all taking notes.
914 visitors
dc1000, how ya doin? ain't seen ya around for awhile. i remember you had a lot of leveraged CRE and dodged a few bullets but were staying profitable.
ps. i don't think that was god replying, unless you had smoke coming out of the monitor.
I just think all this started with Paulson saying TARP wouldn't buy assets. I bet there were a lot of people waiting for that to settle up redemption requests and the like. Now they have to deleverage into a depressed market.
anon,
a big bag of some maui wowie or kauai electric..or something from humboldt county...
just strew some dank buds outside and space them out to lead him right to the front door
And who is loading up on Ts at the lowest yields in history? CalPERS and company, of course!
Swap Spreads
Insurance companies, asset and liability managers as well as pension funds have been actively receiving even as we touch the lowest yields since man began to walk upright.
Fair Economist,
Citi was unwinding a SIV
marketwatch bulletin: FREDDIE, FANNIE HALT FORECLOSURE SALES, EVICTIONS OF OCCUPIED HOMES NOV. 26 TO JAN. 9
"Pavel, we can only pray that is indeed the reason, I believe it was. We are going to need a strong leader going forward."
No question of it. I didn't vote for him but I'm praying for him.
Oh my LORD - Did Liesman just refer to his network as CNBS!!??
LOL!
"Erik writes:
Glad I bought a 36 pack of beer yesterday"
I just buy kegs. Better value. If you drink them fast enough, they stay cold the hold time.
I miss CSC, at least I didn't feel lonely in my drug induced stupor, watching disaster porn.
Turkeys Away....
To take your mind off the collapsing economy.
Watch Turkeys Away: WKRP in Cincinnati Full Length Episodes Online | Free on Fancast
Well it sure as hell isn't for the chicks.
Anonymous
It is if you are doing it right.
Anyone else catch that? What a Freudian slip!
I called it yesterday, I called it today. I am clueless and going on intutition. I am also getting just a tiny bit concerned about all this.
Yancy: No sure thing, but I think the chance of GS and JPM shareholders getting wiped out is high enough that I went long 10 and 15 puts last month.
I wrote about it here:
Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts -- Seeking Alpha
This Saturday, Texas Tech is going to school OU. When we do, then we're going to send Mike Leach to DC to set things straight.
Rally time, boys and girls. That was capitulation...in case you weren't paying attention.
Wreck Em Tech!
The guy on Bloomberg just said something about Fannie and Freddie suspending all foreclosures until Jan 9th? Then he went back to talking Gap.
Anybody know anything more?
I sell foreclosures so this is not good for me.
Many predicted this outcome when Greenspan flooded the economy with cheap money 5 years ago. They were right.
If you look at the daily djia chart, you will notice another upside down Homer Simpson face. This is a terrible technical signal. Doh
"Conjure is enjoying a cigar."
Please pass to Conjure my thanks. Based on his vibes last night I pushed my entire stack of chips today onto QID at 86.23. Booyah!
"And speak Welsh."
Odd coincidence: We met a brace of Welsh Springer Spaniels this morning - lovely dogs. I wrote a poem about them. One was called 'Dylan'.
EHP,
Unfortunately most of the subprime foreclosures are not with Freddie or Fannie. The MSM needs to look at all the other lenders who gave out funny money due to poor underwriting and poor rating and slice and dice securitization. It is much much bigger than Freddie or Fannie. Scary big. I will try to dig up the numbers.
A few thoughts...
WOW!
I gotta stop going to lunch with 30 minutes left in the trading day.
I keep doing this for the next 3 weeks, it is dfe. DOW 0000!
Well, I guess this is what deflation looks like.
Should we be surprised? We all know wages have not increased vs. inflation since the 70s. Therefore, debt has fueled all this bubbly, overpriced lifestyle we live or have to live with/in.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!
The deleveraging. Hurts now doesn't it. Well, just maybe homes will go back to 3X income, even here in most of South Orange County.
Also, about the boomers. Must really hurt to know 50% of that debt-ridden 401K is gone.
Buffet. OUCH! 50% even his beloved BH preferred A.
Finally, I guess this is what a 50% firesale looks like worldwide.
Just think with 50%, it will only take 100% gain to get back to where we were before the slide started. Funny how that works, isn't it?
Maybe just maybe we as a nation will begin to rethink our standard of living and what we expect in life.
Forget supersize.
How about downsize our fries, Sir?
Any thoughts how OpX affects the market tomorrow and why? Why a rally and on what news?
"Does anyone think Obama will step up to the microphone next week or have a fireside chat this weekend?
Does anyone think Obama will step up to the microphone next week or have a fireside chat this weekend?"
No, remember we only have one Prez at a time--er, oh wait I guess we currently don't have one.
Interesting O hasn't named a treasury secy yet. I guess he doesn't want to hurt Hank's credibility.
When I think of the future now I smell dust.
Zephyr writes:
Many predicted this outcome when Greenspan flooded the economy with cheap money 5 years ago. They were right.
And their solution. PIECES OF SHIT. Is to flood the economy again.
Only this time, it will be Zero % rate.
PIECES OF SHIT.
Please remove the -100% label from the graph. It creeps me out.
Greenspan threw gas on the fire for several years.
As expected, we got a severe housing bubble, and then a housing crash that is taking the financial markets down with it.
Anyone surprised?
"966 Visitors Online"
Today was the highest I've ever seen.
Anyone know the record, official or otherwise?
alan greenspend:
doing well. we emptied the residential pipeline a while ago and are sitting on just a handful of lots, all of which are presold, just waiting for takedown' per contract.
on the CRE side, the last deal we have that was sourced in the 'old days' is under construction right now, preleased.
thus, my prayers for low rates once we stabilize.
man, that would be a boon! interest rates at 2/3's of what we expected!
mommmmammamamam would get that new pair of shoes fo sho!
and in the meantime, we have 100's and 100's of lots worth of raw land sitting fallow, unleveraged, waiting this out. we'll buy out many of the LP's at the bottom like we always do and then be happier for it in 5-8 years.
so basically, everything i have is in the 'new world thinking' except for the one mixed use deal in DC - and please god, keep those rates low!
PS: that wasn't god?
Comrade Kristina writes:
I miss CSC, at least I didn't feel lonely in my drug induced stupor, watching disaster porn.
He's about as "gone" as Harry Lime.
Anybody want to buy my 100 shares of Sirius? Only $15.
The updated chart is on the main page
So far, it's actually worse than the Great Depression.
So if OpEx is at noon, does that mean the rally geins after that? trying to time my in point.
"FREDDIE, FANNIE HALT FORECLOSURE SALES, EVICTIONS OF OCCUPIED HOMES NOV. 26 TO JAN. 9"
I think about 500K evictor jobs will be lost!
I've seen it as high as 1200 visitors back in October.
Add in another $25, and I'll include 10 shares of GM.
Back during the GE, what was the unemployment rate a year into the crash?
i meant GD
fallonPDX,
Oh I know the default delta between private and agency mortgages, so no need to look it up on my account. I just posted the snippet because it is breaking news.
Now we do need the low rates as an emergency medicine. But this too will lead to trouble. However, we must survive the short-run before we can fix the long-run.
Greg,
The GAP Inc. is pleased to report their earnings really suck. But they do not suck as much as we thought they suck.
MarketWatch.com
Side note: Last time I went to Baby Gap at the local upscale urban mall, they refused to validate my parking. This and keeping stock limited to the floor helps the bottom line. They are still zombie retailers never-the-less.
Uh, dc1000:
Yeah, I heard your prayers but it was a little garbled by all of the wailing and gnashing of teeth at the Treasury and Federal Reserve.
And I'm going to have my hands full with everyone else.
Take a number and wait, but hang in there.
May I suggest a martini and Ted Bell's new book?
Peace be with you.
The Other (Real) God
Pre-1939 - WWI was the Great War. After that it became World War I. Bc after that we had to number them.
we call the previous depression the Great Depression. Why not call it World Depression II.
Hey, look on the bright side. At least we won't have to hear any more grumpy old folks bitching about how bad the Great Depression was.......
No, I just got this picture in my head. We are about 2 days, maybe less from the fall out. Other failures are already in motion. Somehere in Scandanavia, or the Baltics? I think it is a Scandanavian country.
We will be those grumpy old folks
Citigroup's Move Below $5 Could Trigger Major Selling
this link
No, get real. James Buchanan didn't care whether states seceded from the union.
Worst President except for Buchanan.
sportsfan | 11.20.08 - 4:32 pm | #
You have to admit though that he is giving Jimmy B a run for the money, but yeah I have to agree that Jimmy B was worse. W. is almost in a class by himself given not only the scale, but the breadth of his screw ups. Sort of like he was out to top each crappy prez of the past. Nixonian misuse of federal power to attack political foes, check. Harding and Grant like venal corruption, check. Get us into a unwarrented quagmire of a war like LBJ, check and check again. Crash the economy like Hoover, check. Add in a few new ones that other prez didnt to make up for screw ups that were not available to him. Sitting back and watching a major American City drown, sort of makes up for not being able to do a Jacksonian "trail of tears" routine.
don't they usually stop evictions during December (Christmas) time?
Tater,
If it only snowed five feet and I had no shoes to wear...and of course we need a better war....sigh...Greatest Generation, they had all the fun man and got fat on all those veterans benefits and social security.
Can we party like it's 1997?
Nova,
Had a guy work for me said he is so poor his kids get hotdogs and he and his wife have hotdog soup... (broth from the boiling)
SOMALI PIRATES TO BAILOUT CITY BANK: PIRATE CHIEF
EHP,
Got yeah man. BTW what is up with the screaming headline like that? So we should forget about how hosed this economy is or that we should now start freaking out and start hiding in the basement.
Hey, look on the bright side. At least we won't have to hear any more grumpy old folks bitching about how bad the Great Depression was.......
-Tater
Dude, they are all dead. We are the grumpy old folks you hear who have already lost 50% of the 401k's and 40%-70% of the "retirement investment" in our homes.
wow just 50% Max... I lost 41% in October... But I play aggresive, play with money i can afford to lose...
don't they usually stop evictions during December (Christmas) time?
Loke
These guys are in it for the bucks and not so Little Timmy can have pudding at home on Christmas.
Are there no work houses? Are there no homeless shelters to go to? Harrumph.
Yeah, I've got friends that were margined entering this interesting time. Nasty turn of events for folks busy at work and expecting Uncle Ben to keep everything on an even keel so markets can always go up or at worst sideways for a while.
Big surprise for them.
Time to break out the mad max movie tonight!
OT-My game plan: Move out of unaffordable 3 bedroom townhouse into more affordable 2 bedroom apartment. Take equity from town house and invest it into the market. Give me six months to implement.
Big ? writes:
Pre-1939 - WWI was the Great War. After that it became World War I. Bc after that we had to number them.
we call the previous depression the Great Depression. Why not call it World Depression II.
That's what I was saying on the other thread, Big. Although if I recall from postwar historical texts, "First" and "Second" were more common at first, and the Roman numerals didn't take hold until later.
If you took a loan out against your 401K.. does that only mean you have to pay back what its now worth?
While all this plays out, here in Maryland, some people just don't Get It yet: I walked past some yutz in the halls grumbling how he can't sell his house that is "worth" $850,000 and it might be "worth" only $750,000 now. Oh, the poor thing!
I doubt he could sell it for half that price today, but one needs to remember that the median household incom for the state is only about $65,000 - even in the wealthy counties, I believe it barely cracks $100,000. But hey, buying houses at 7 to 8 times your income still makes sense, right? Hahahaha... wow!
Comrade Pondering the Mess: isn't that truth. Fantasy land is hard to break away from.
OT-from today's San Jose Mercury: a quarterly survey of 509 Bay area CEO's found that business confidence plunged to a record low (32), and for every company planning to hire 3 companies plan to have layoffs, and that 50% of the CEOs believe that the recession will last another 5 quarters and 41% think it could last longer.
Somali Pirate Corp. to spin off non performing business unit.
In a expected move, Somali Pirate Corp
is selling Davie Jones Locker to Foot locker for an estimated $500. The new company will be call Davies Foot locker.
Somali Pirate Corp option volume swells, some players bet on losses
Somali Pirate Corp shares sink despite Saudi prince's investment
Somali Pirate Corp lobbys lawmakers, SEC to reinstate short sell ban: WSJ
-Tater writes:
Hey, look on the bright side. At least we won't have to hear any more grumpy old folks bitching about how bad the Great Depression was.......
-Tater | 11.20.08 - 4:56 pm
Thank you, -Tater. I needed that.
Somali Pirates, now Somali Banks PLC, is reported to take over Citi for pennies on the dollar.
ab writes:
If you took a loan out against your 401K.. does that only mean you have to pay back what its now worth?
ab | 11.20.08 - 5:14 pm | #
Just mail in the statement and walk away.
I think we will see Citi over the $5 mark for at least a bit tomorrow...just sayin'
CKP.O- CITIGROUP INC CALL 5.00
Volume 55,706
Open Option Interest 4600
As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.
Comrade Scared Shitless | 11.20.08 - 4:34 pm | #
They do. It's amazing. They fly at speed through woods like that chase scene in an early Star Wars film, except the birds do it without computers.
They are all just a bunch of damn liars - everyone in Washington, DOA and all the banker-tycoon fucks:
Bernanke, Paulson and Bair Testify – But Can We get a Witness? « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
They have been setting this up for years:
Executive Order 12919 - SourceWatch
And now it's go time - bankrupt the USA, kill the dollar and every economy in the world, stifle the growth of China, create a one-world currency and bank, and enslave us all for ever!
Are These the Forging Fires of the NWO We Feel? « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
Happy Holidays!
Luckily, The Onion has a better plan:
Fraternity In Danger Of Losing House Launches Harebrained Scheme To Fix Economy
MarketWatch Joy:
We'll be in Great Depression 2 by 2011 -- here are 30 reasons why Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch