Insurance companies, asset and liability managers as well as pension funds have been actively receiving even as we touch the lowest yields since man began to walk upright.
Now that's a chart that you can show normally-disinterested friends and loved ones....and quickly grab their attention. Quite a nice illustration of how serious and historic this all is.
The Great Depression was a bit more than a stock market debacle though.
If unemployment figures go north of 10 percent and GDP falls off a cliff we might start comparing our present situation with that of the 1930's but
simply wiping out stock equities is not there yet.
That is one of the big issues, the other is whether we decide to have a single payer health care system. Both are related though..
People who call themselves 'capitalists' bleat about the ideology of pulling yourself by your own bootstraps until they are on their asses. Then it is socialism...
//Boomers thought their retirement savings are gone... but then things really began going downhill.//
And who is loading up on Ts at the lowest yields in history?
Well, how about Deutsch Bank, which manages the fixed fund of my Hewitt 401k? Since every other choice is deeply in the red right now, even 3% T Bills looks good. A lot of coworkers never look at what's happened in the last year, but now a few are finally throwing in the towel. Whatever can be salvaged from the equity funds is going to fixed income.
I (and IIRC Lawyer Liz and a few others) really thought 7500 seemed like a neato re-entry point. What I thought would take 6 months, took 6 weeks. I definitely think we have a ways to go. Low 6's? That my new best (totally amatuer) guess.
I realize it's DJIA vs. SP500, but it's clear we really jumped the tracks in the last 60 days. From bad normal to bad catastrophe. Thankfully, I got out 55 days ago. Time now to really hunker down.
I have to say the way we blew through 777 (02 low) on the S&P was rather disconcerting, would have thought the bulls would have defended that like Stalingrad, instead it turned out to be less solid than the maginot line, heck not even a 5 minute blip up on the way down at that level. Need to run a screen of net net names, there have to be a few of them out there.
Not to diminish the scale of the crash or anything, but why switch from Dow to S&P? It makes the comparison almost meaningless. They measure completely different things.
Ginger Yellow writes:
Not to diminish the scale of the crash or anything, but why switch from Dow to S&P? It makes the comparison almost meaningless. They measure completely different things.
Because the Dow is a horrible measure of the stock market. Companies are continually swapped out when they become irrelevant (technologically or financially). GE is the only company that was in the original Dow. The S&P is a much better measure but it did not exist in 1929.
dg writes:
I originally predicted that the bottom would be in the 5000s, people probably thought I was kidding or exaggerating.
I said 6000 and thought I was being foolishly pessimistic. However, after October I knew I had been aiming high. I'm going with Peter Schiff's bottom call now:
I said 6500-7000 or pre 1997 levels 6 months ago and was almost acosted by my peers at work. Damn that is WAY TOO optomistic now. I really think dow 3,000 is not out of the question because I see the downside of things just lingering in 09' and not improving. I hope the Messiah can change this but I have not seen him walking on any water or turning water into wine....yet:(
"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."[
B. Graham
You get a shiver in the dark
Its been raining in the park but meantime
South of the bridge you stop and you hold everything
The gang is slapping NY-SE double four time
You feel up tight when you hear that death-bell ring
You step inside but you don't see too many faces
Coming in out of the pain to watch the stocks go down
Too much competition too many other places
But not too many horns can make that sound
Way on downsouth; way on downsouth hymie town
You check out Heli Ben he pulls all the cords
Mind he's strictly rhythm he doesn't want to make it fly or sing
And an old bazaar is all he can afford
When he gets out under the lights to say his thing
And Hanky doesn't mind if he doesn't save the scene
He's got a daytime job he's doing alright
He can play money wonk just like anything
Saving it up for Friday night
With bazookas; with bazookas of bling
And then the man he steps right up to the microphone
And says at last just as the time bell rings
thank you goodnight now its time to go home
And he makes it fast with one more thing
we shoot bazookas, we shoot bazookas of bling.
So... what happens with the CDS's when GM goes tits up? Are we looking at a Lehman Bros. level of destruction? Higher? Lower?
I'm absolutely floored that (seemingly) the average American is calling for Detroit's Blood (no bailout). I know this will be the next leg down (if Citi doesn't beat them that is) but what will it bring?
The price of mason jars and round point shovels has remained constant for several years now. Just don't get Oldtimers. ( I could've sworn I buried it here).
"Why does the graph show the current decline as 330 days in, when the start date is 10/9/07? Shouldn't it be at about 405 days?"
Pavlov's Dog | 11.20.08 - 9:17 pm |
When you download the daily prices from Yahoo, they only include days the market is open.
"Crash" is such a subjective term.
Yowza
Not to mention un-American.
If you turn it upside down and it looks pretty impressive.
Graaaaaaph!
I'm not a huge believer in technical trading but its interesting that many of these have the same pattern.
......
And who is loading up on Ts at the lowest yields in history? CalPERS and company, of course! From Across the Curve
Swap Spreads
Insurance companies, asset and liability managers as well as pension funds have been actively receiving even as we touch the lowest yields since man began to walk upright.
yeah they have the same pattern if you cross your eyes and then have shot of everclear
By the way, where are all the PPT theorists today?
TIPS - they were a better deal at the long end a few weeks ago, but not bad now
Can we declare we're #1 yet? Yeah, take that Great Depression!!
And who is loading up on Ts at the lowest yields in history? CalPERS and company, of course!
Awesome.
TBT
Coming off the biggest credit bubble in history, looks like we've still got a ways to go.
Now that's a chart that you can show normally-disinterested friends and loved ones....and quickly grab their attention. Quite a nice illustration of how serious and historic this all is.
Anyone else seeing this crap about FNM and FRE delaying foreclosures until January '09.
Maybe the market will magically heal by then.
Only 37.2 % to go.. wheeee
Only 7552 til the bottom. Kidding.
The great depression stopped at 89%
Now this is "Change You Believe In"! LMAO
89.2 (GD1) -51.9 (Current Crisis)= 37.3
My bad... It is 37.3% not 37.2%
The Great Depression was a bit more than a stock market debacle though.
If unemployment figures go north of 10 percent and GDP falls off a cliff we might start comparing our present situation with that of the 1930's but
simply wiping out stock equities is not there yet.
I feel like we are finally beginning to see the end of the beginning.
Destruction is laid out in the financial markets as far as the eye can see, and there are only a few last stocks worth shorting out there.
This crash has destroyed so much of the illusion of prosperity that Greenspan's magic wand of liquidity provided to the United States.
We now have only one last lever to pull in our quest to save our collective asses from the masses.
Print, baby, PRINT!!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
So America will never be the same again.
Boomers thought their retirement savings are gone... but then things really began going downhill.
We will see the panic selling of retirement houses finally begin in January.
I'm not a huge believer in technical trading but its interesting that many of these have the same pattern.
Yes... Down.
karelian,
to who?
There are no buyers left here, and soon the knife catchers will be looking for a bailout too.
TARP the planet, we are going to need it.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Conjure says, "The market is going lower."
That is one of the big issues, the other is whether we decide to have a single payer health care system. Both are related though..
People who call themselves 'capitalists' bleat about the ideology of pulling yourself by your own bootstraps until they are on their asses. Then it is socialism...
//Boomers thought their retirement savings are gone... but then things really began going downhill.//
Where did the volatility go? We seem to be trending in a single direction lately.
And who is loading up on Ts at the lowest yields in history?
Well, how about Deutsch Bank, which manages the fixed fund of my Hewitt 401k? Since every other choice is deeply in the red right now, even 3% T Bills looks good. A lot of coworkers never look at what's happened in the last year, but now a few are finally throwing in the towel. Whatever can be salvaged from the equity funds is going to fixed income.
I (and IIRC Lawyer Liz and a few others) really thought 7500 seemed like a neato re-entry point. What I thought would take 6 months, took 6 weeks. I definitely think we have a ways to go. Low 6's? That my new best (totally amatuer) guess.
Or maybe 4500 or 5500 - geez.
"Coming off the biggest credit bubble in history, looks like we've still got a ways to go.
Here | 11.20.08 - 4:51 pm | # "
Looking at the underlying securities (housing), I'd wager, half way to go.
Japan could 'print baby print' but can the US?
We are more Latin America than Japan
these days.
One week before the biggest shopping session of the year.... the timing of this crash is just astonishing.
One could also argue that we're still in the crash from 2000 since we're now below those highs and that the 2002 to 2008 was a bear market rally.
"One week before the biggest shopping session of the year..."
Cancelled.
didn't ya hear? Rush/Hannity say it's all Barrack's fault!
"And who is loading up on Ts at the lowest yields in history?"
People who want to not lose money!
Flight to safety.
I see 757 visitors Online, and only 37 comments in this thread. So is Haloscan broken, or did everyone just take a short step off a tall building?
Too bad I have more work to do today, or I would be diving into a bottle of expensive Scotch about now.
Nemo writes:
By the way, where are all the PPT theorists today?
Nemo | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 4:49 pm
LOL
I realize it's DJIA vs. SP500, but it's clear we really jumped the tracks in the last 60 days. From bad normal to bad catastrophe. Thankfully, I got out 55 days ago. Time now to really hunker down.
Excellent graph.
Nemo writes:
"By the way, where are all the PPT theorists today?"
I would say the Plunge Promotion Team was totally on top of things today. So this PPT theorist is right here.
The Dow is down less than S&P 500. But the numbers are still scary.
Dow is down about 45%.
GOP wasn't able to strangle the government in a bathtub but they appear to have settled on drowning the auto industry as second best.
"So is Haloscan broken, or did everyone just take a short step off a tall building?"
Everyone, in each or her own way, trying to come up with a depression proof income source.
People have yet to realize that this process has only begun and has a long way to go.
The markets are headed lower, so is the US standard of living.
Jeebus.
30-Year\t4.500\t05/15/2038\t118-19 / 3.49\t8-07½ / -.420\t17:00
Zephyr writes:
The Dow is down less than S&P 500. But the numbers are still scary.
Yeah, mainly because the Dow regularly replaces dogs. Exhibit A: AIG -> Kraft
I have to say the way we blew through 777 (02 low) on the S&P was rather disconcerting, would have thought the bulls would have defended that like Stalingrad, instead it turned out to be less solid than the maginot line, heck not even a 5 minute blip up on the way down at that level. Need to run a screen of net net names, there have to be a few of them out there.
"Need to run a screen of net net names, there have to be a few of them out there."
There's no hurry. People will start talking about Benjamin Graham again before this is over.
Not to diminish the scale of the crash or anything, but why switch from Dow to S&P? It makes the comparison almost meaningless. They measure completely different things.
Ok, yeah. Remember I WAS gonna get back in at 10,000. Didn't.
Have gone mentally stock shopping. Too scared to place an order.
6500? 5500?
Campbell Soup anyone?
..
I originally predicted that the bottom would be in the 5000s, people probably thought I was kidding or exaggerating.
It's starting to look like an optimist's view now.
Ginger Yellow writes:
Not to diminish the scale of the crash or anything, but why switch from Dow to S&P? It makes the comparison almost meaningless. They measure completely different things.
Because the Dow is a horrible measure of the stock market. Companies are continually swapped out when they become irrelevant (technologically or financially). GE is the only company that was in the original Dow. The S&P is a much better measure but it did not exist in 1929.
dg writes:
I originally predicted that the bottom would be in the 5000s, people probably thought I was kidding or exaggerating.
I said 6000 and thought I was being foolishly pessimistic. However, after October I knew I had been aiming high. I'm going with Peter Schiff's bottom call now:
1 oz. Au = DJIA
I said 6500-7000 or pre 1997 levels 6 months ago and was almost acosted by my peers at work. Damn that is WAY TOO optomistic now. I really think dow 3,000 is not out of the question because I see the downside of things just lingering in 09' and not improving. I hope the Messiah can change this but I have not seen him walking on any water or turning water into wine....yet:(
Try DOW 4000 or less...
A FRIENDLY HEADS-UP: Failie May and Fraudie Max are suspending foreclosures until Jan 2009:
Fannie and Freddie Suspend Foreclosures into January 2009 « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
SO STOP TRASHING YOUR HOUSE AND PEEING IN THE CORNERS (at least until after Christmas)
Whats is Schiff's bottom call?
"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."[
B. Graham
Well, since we seem in be in Dire Straits:
Thread music for these lyrics:
YouTube - Dire Straits - Sultans of Swing
You get a shiver in the dark
Its been raining in the park but meantime
South of the bridge you stop and you hold everything
The gang is slapping NY-SE double four time
You feel up tight when you hear that death-bell ring
You step inside but you don't see too many faces
Coming in out of the pain to watch the stocks go down
Too much competition too many other places
But not too many horns can make that sound
Way on downsouth; way on downsouth hymie town
You check out Heli Ben he pulls all the cords
Mind he's strictly rhythm he doesn't want to make it fly or sing
And an old bazaar is all he can afford
When he gets out under the lights to say his thing
And Hanky doesn't mind if he doesn't save the scene
He's got a daytime job he's doing alright
He can play money wonk just like anything
Saving it up for Friday night
With bazookas; with bazookas of bling
And then the man he steps right up to the microphone
And says at last just as the time bell rings
thank you goodnight now its time to go home
And he makes it fast with one more thing
we shoot bazookas, we shoot bazookas of bling.
Money Man writes:
Whats is Schiff's bottom call?
It's at the bottom of my post: when you can buy the Dow for an ounce of gold.
Money Man writes:
Whats is Schiff's bottom call?
Schiff will call a bottom after he has made his commissions off of every last client.
So... what happens with the CDS's when GM goes tits up? Are we looking at a Lehman Bros. level of destruction? Higher? Lower?
I'm absolutely floored that (seemingly) the average American is calling for Detroit's Blood (no bailout). I know this will be the next leg down (if Citi doesn't beat them that is) but what will it bring?
Cn
sm_landlord, I call that one a classic (he says with fine scotch spurting from his burning nasal cavities).
cd
Money Man writes:
Whats is Schiff's bottom call?
When Hillary's bottom looks appealing to any Wall Street trader with a BAC less than 0.20
cd
mmmm.....forced hedge fund selling and fear may be providing an unusual opportunity, especially for those under 40.
Why does the graph show the current decline as 330 days in, when the start date is 10/9/07? Shouldn't it be at about 405 days?
The price of mason jars and round point shovels has remained constant for several years now. Just don't get Oldtimers. ( I could've sworn I buried it here).
"Why does the graph show the current decline as 330 days in, when the start date is 10/9/07? Shouldn't it be at about 405 days?"
Pavlov's Dog | 11.20.08 - 9:17 pm |
When you download the daily prices from Yahoo, they only include days the market is open.