So when does the downturn start to hit Fake America?
Meaning when will it affect their real lives as opposed their current luxury of crying into their 401K alphabet soup and thinking that they'll just stay in the work force at full salary a few more years.
CRFaN | 11.20.08 - 5:54 pm | #
The new Bank of America actually features a man trying to hide under a pillow. Then Kiefer Sutherland urges us to spend. Or he will torture us with pliers.
The new Bank of America actually features a man trying to hide under a pillow. Then Kiefer Sutherland urges us to spend. Or he will torture us with pliers.
karelian | 11.20.08 - 5:59 pm
Back when the TARP was conceived, Treasury's thinking was that leveraging the Fed's balance sheet to create a massive hedge fund to buy distressed assets would solve the problem.
However that idea became inoperative once European countries began direct capital infusions. The problem evolved from one that could be fixed from within to one that relied on intervention from without.
Fantasizing a "market solution" has revealed the limits of Paulson's imagination. Once the government becomes an owner, it's on a track that few republicans can stomach.
So here we go with the politics. Paulson will now sit on his hands until Jan 20th- allowing the pressures to build, and leaving the inevitable additional spending the the democrats. Republicans are calculating that this way they can stage a comeback in Congress in 2 years.
Any/all of these institutions who have naming rights on stadiums, buildings, etc. should have them revoked and replaced by "TAXPAYER STADIUM" or at a minimum, "TARP ARENA."
and leaving the inevitable additional spending the the democrats. Republicans are calculating that this way they can stage a comeback in Congress in 2 years.
I doubt the Republican strategists are this stupid. They don't want maximum meltdown to occur until after O takes office.
Otherwise in four years, people will be comparing the S&P during election 2012 to the meltdown prior to Jan 20th 2009 and say, "What a great biz climate turnaround!"
They are revealed to all but the fundies as frauds.
The republicans have a HUGE problem: The only thing in common between fiscal and social conservatives is the word "conservative". Time to choose: Social or Fiscal?
What's with the restraint? I mean, your money hardly amounts to a toot on the toilet here? Get with the program. You missed out on the fun by at least two decimal places.
I think we are past the point of allocating any of this to the next administration. When the S&P is down 50%, confidence is already destroyed. You dont make a claim that the future administration destroyed the confidence when the whole selling point of the new administration was about hope for the future, no matter which one was elected. Uh, hullo!?!?!?! One only need look back at the last ten years or so. It's not so much a presidential thing, it is a fundamental breakdown of our ability to understand where we were headed, and our misplaced confidence in the masters of the universe, the financiers, etc. Go back and read the print from the heady days...we held these fools up as if they were gods. But they have been unmasked. Next step is the convictions. Only then can anyone get any confidence back.
$9,000,000\tBroadway Financial Corporation
$16,369,000\t1st FS Corporation
$17,000,000\tBank of Commerce Holdings
$151,500,000\tProvident Bancshares Corp.
$200,000,000\tWashington Federal Inc.
$214,181,000\tUmpqua Holdings Corp.
$298,737,000\tUCBH Holdings, Inc.
$300,000,000\tValley National Bancorp
$361,172,000\tTCF Financial Corporation
$866,540,000\tFirst Horizon National Corporation
$1,398,071,000\tHuntington Bancshares
$1,400,000,000\tZions Bancorporation
$1,576,000,000\tNorthern Trust Corporation
$1,715,000,000\tMarshall & Ilsley Corporation
$2,000,000,000\tState Street Corporation
$2,250,000,000\tComerica Inc.
$2,500,000,000\tKeyCorp
$3,000,000,000\tBank of New York Mellon Corporation
$3,133,640,000\tBB&T Corp.
$3,500,000,000\tSunTrust Banks, Inc.
$3,500,000,000\tRegions Financial Corp.
$3,555,199,000\tCapital One Financial Corporation
$6,599,000,000\tU.S. Bancorp
$10,000,000,000\tThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
$10,000,000,000\tMorgan Stanley
$10,000,000,000\tMerrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
$15,000,000,000\tBank of America Corporation
$25,000,000,000\tCitigroup Inc.
$25,000,000,000\tJPMorgan Chase & Co.
$25,000,000,000\tWells Fargo & Company
Oh, could anyone give me an approximation to the amount of money we're talking about being traded daily when the 3-month T-Bill yield is so close to zero?
WFC may not have needed the $25 (yet) but once they took on the turd, they needed that and more. Im surprised they are holding up as well as they are, but heck, with the acccounting changes (60 to 90 to 120 day delinq dating) and the tax preferences (thanks a TRILLION hank) and the 2nd lien loans they are hiding, it is understandable. But once they take C down completely, they are sort of uh, how say?, uh, running out of targets.
Take a look at the JPM 10Q. $95 billion of home equity loans in the portfolio. They only assumed a 3% default rate so far. Their home equity product has an assumed default rate less than half of their net chargeoff rate for whole mortgages.
Doesn't take much imagination to envision losses on the home equity portfolio that suck up $25 billion.
How about a list of banks that have stated they aren't going under the TARP?
Within the last week or two there was a news item on yahoo finance about something like Sierra bank (holding?), located in CA of all places, that issued a press release stating that they didn't need to hide under the TARP. That's what we need. A list of institutions that have been managed well and merit our deposits.
@CR: It seems that some of those bailouts are missing 1 to 3 zeros compared to the others! "Here's your TARP. It's less than 1/1000 what we gave to the big guys, but at least you get something. Enjoy your grain of rice from the iron rice bowl."
@lawyerliz: "At 400 points a day... What cannot continue, (including Dow going down), must stop."
Unfortunately the DOW can lose 5% or 6% every day pretty much all the way back to the Stone Age...
So... what happens with the CDS's when GM goes tits up? Are we looking at a Lehman Bros. level of destruction? Higher? Lower?
I'm absolutely floored that (seemingly) the average American is calling for Detroit's Blood (no bailout). I know this will be the next leg down (if Citi doesn't beat them that is) but what will it bring?
"So here we go with the politics. Paulson will now sit on his hands until Jan 20th- allowing the pressures to build, and leaving the inevitable additional spending the the democrats. Republicans are calculating that this way they can stage a comeback in Congress in 2 years.
CDS guy"
CDS Guy -
Obama already knows this is the game the republicans will play. Do you know what his response is? For every bailout dollar that is forked over and creates massive public anger, Eric Holder will frog march some big time Republican Wall Street donor to prison. Why do you think they got an AG whose expertise is white collar crime. This will placate the masses by dispensing mob justice. Eventually, the Repubs will cry uncle.
GD writes:
Some of these banks were forced to take the funds, right?
+++++++++++++++++++
That's what was said. I was in a quandary for some time until I realized that they were forced to take the money by their own circumstances. They needed it to hope to survive!
Obama already knows this is the game the republicans will play. Do you know what his response is? For every bailout dollar that is forked over and creates massive public anger, Eric Holder will frog march some big time Republican Wall Street donor to prison. Why do you think they got an AG whose expertise is white collar crime. This will placate the masses by dispensing mob justice. Eventually, the Repubs will cry uncle.
A Real Trade
God I hope you are correct. At least I'll have some entertainment to get me through the depression
SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- Tough economic times are being blamed for the cancellation of Sacramento's annual Santa Parade, an institution that traditionally draws thousands of children of all ages to downtown streets.
The event, which usually features Santa Claus and his wife, was originally set to take place along downtown streets on Nov. 29.
Laurie Hensley, organizer of the event, said the celebration is being dropped because of a lack of sponsors and advertising.
The decision marks the first time in 26 years that the event will not take place.
Organizers said they are $15,000 to $20,000 short. The event is organized privately.
We're not talking about the perception of debatable illegitimacy,'' Correa said after receiving the report at a public event in Quito. Government supporters ringed the auditorium where he spoke and chantedwe owe nothing,'' the debt is paid,'' andput the thieves in jail.''
The price on the $510 million bonds due 2012 fell as much as 2.5 cents today to 24 cents on the dollar, sending yields over 70 percent, after the release of the report. The bonds have tumbled from 95 cents in mid-September as speculation has mounted that Ecuador, squeezed by a tumble in its main export, oil, will default for the second time in less than a decade.
Didn't you get MS's memo yesterday? Santa applied for top, got none, and said he doesn't have sufficient cash on hand to pay for the magic corn that makes his Rheindeer fly.
His CP is due and it's too expensive right now to reissue. His LOC isn't large enough to afford the fuel costs.
Didn't you get MS's memo yesterday? Santa applied for TARP, got none, and said he doesn't have sufficient cash on hand to pay for the magic corn that makes his Rheindeer fly.
Maybe he should have asked Hanukkah Harry? I hear he works for Goldman.
A couple of companies (Shell?) have taken large oil tankers under contract. Are they going to use them to store oil at these prices? I don't imagine there is enough space at the storage facility in OK, where all the oil futures deliverables go.
"In economics, it's been understood for hundreds of years that wealth is created when we lower barriers to trade, provided there is a trust infrastructure of laws and enforcement to prevent cheating and ensure trade is uncoerced." - Source here
Seems like we lowered the barriers to trade a bit too far ("here, take this mortgage money, no one will want it back"), and forgot to maintain the trust infrastructure ("we don't need additional capital"). Now we're moving on to coerced trade ("your taxes to cover our losses")...
Eric Holder will frog march some big time Republican Wall Street donor to prison.
Please go to any of the campaign disclosure sites and check the breakdown by industry and party. Wall Street already hedged its bet on a Democratic Congress and Administration...
However, The United States is just as broke as we are individually - in fact, more so.
Treasury will have to issue three trillion dollars of new debt over the next 12 months in an attempt to make this work. But Treasury has been using very short-term debt - mostly four week and 13 week "bills", to fund the existing debt, because they are cheaper. As such the total amount of these auctions could easily reach five trillion dollars over the next 12 months.
Already, Treasury is issuing more than $100 billion dollars in this debt a week, on average, including new issues and rollovers. This is about double the total amount of debt that foreigners (or US interests) hold in total, and we have barely begun to actually issue the debt necessary to make the "TARP" operate.
We are, in effect, borrowing to pay interest. If you have ever tried to do this personally, you know that doing so almost always leads to bankruptcy.
here he is today:
Tired of The Crash?
The market and economy will not stop falling apart until:
Paulson is fired and his policies cease.
We have transparency in balance sheets - for every firm on the exchange. No exceptions. All Level 3 asset mark models and assets identified - period.
Bernanke withdraws all his alphabet soup programs or is removed from office and his successor does, and the "crowding out" in the credit markets ceases.
"Basel Too writes:
Eric Holder will frog march some big time Republican Wall Street donor to prison.
Please go to any of the campaign disclosure sites and check the breakdown by industry and party. Wall Street already hedged its bet on a Democratic Congress and Administration..."
Basel Too -
Obama has no other choice but to send people frog-marching. Forget the donors in this case, this is about political survival and social stability. Just watch.
Your 401k is a 201k (and will soon be a 41k) because you (collectively) sat on your butts last October when I started running petitions and because we have managed to garner only 50-odd people at protests.
There should be hundreds of thousands.
There should be general strikes - people who simply refuse to go to work, en-masse, across the nation.
There should have not been one Congressman or woman who voted for the bailout returned to office.
Senator James Inhofe has revealed that Henry Paulson was behind the threats of martial law and a new great depression prior to the passage of the bailout bill, having made such warnings during a conference call on September 19th, around two weeks before the legislation was eventually approved by both the Senate and Congress.
LA Times story about how Wall Street donated the vast majority of its contributions to Democratic candidates this election cycle linked below. This continued through the general election.
Doesn't mean that Holder wouldn't ONLY go after Republican donors, but in Washington, money talks. Democrats were by far the bigger beneficiaries of Wall Street this election cycle.
Your 401k is a 201k (and will soon be a 41k) because you (collectively) sat on your butts
The Crash has been backed in the cake for quite some time. A protest will not stop the evaporation of illusion.
The money's not real.
Money is a symbolic representation of goods & services. All that stuff went overseas, man. If you want your 401K, you're gonna have to fight India and China to get it back but I'm not sure how you're going to move a manufacturing plant.
I should tell my Sis to become a bank. Their construction co. which was 7 offices in 3 states (SW)is down to two. She emailed me today. No Christmas exchange. I don't think they will be around as a biz next year.
Everyone is freaking out now. Fast Money had a TA trader saying spx is going to 400-600 and Cramer laid out his 8 point plan that must be adopted in order to avoid the next great depression.
If ever there was a contrary play it would be to go long sometime soon. I think this sucker is going down, but there has got to be a bounce somewhere right? Right?
How can someone who owns a company not be able to afford Christmas gifts? What are they accustomed to giving each other -- Ferraris?
My retired maiden aunt who just got her pension cut isn't even begging off of Christmas. Granted, she's probably just going to give a token present, but still.
The problem isn't Christmas... the problem is that people have become accustomed to too much bling at Christmas. So, no bling, no Christmas? Feh.
And you do know that negative absolute temperatures are possible too, right?
Yes, but they represent states of HIGHER energy than positive temperatures. Consider the reciprocal of temperature , k=1/T:
If it gets hotter, k decreases. k can decrease even below zero, if only a limited number of energy states is considered. T is then negative, too.
"Cramer laid out his 8 point plan that must be adopted in order to avoid the next great depression."
+++++++++++++
Remember when he went bananas begging the fed to open the discount window? Wasn't that when the s&p was much higher. Bernanke may get his advice from Cramer.
It's A Wonderful Life II
Mr. Smith Goes to Washington II
The Phantom President
Gold Diggers of 2009
Flying Down to Paraguay
Hallelujah, I'm a Bum
The Thin Man
My Man Paulson
Reckless
Was 35 two months ago, 11 now. Little mystery as to why they don't want to reveal the list in real time. Of course some market participants do have the information in real time. Nothing like a government policy of asymmetrical information to engender newfound confidence in the system based on transparency. Not.
Does anyone think there should be a kinda Watergate-like special investigation here or some banking buddies that get up on a stage somewhere and sing a song?
Nixon - When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal
Bah... on the radio, heard local high school football team coaches crying because they can't raise money for uniforms for the teams -- merchants won't cough up. Schools don't pay for such things in California.
My response -- play in sweats. Strap the pads on top. There are a lot of hardships coming, but some hardships aren't really hardships.
The best investment now may be a good, sturdy pair of shoes. They will be useful for standing in bread/soup lines and hopping freights. Good shoes will be valuable. I saw them stolen in a flop house, in a movie -- the one where the man and woman shared a hotel room with a curtain between the room's two beds.
Kona writes:
Does anyone think there should be a kinda Watergate-like special investigation here or some banking buddies that get up on a stage somewhere and sing a song?
Nixon - When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal
Didn't you get the hint? It's all a big club, and we peasants are not invited.
Um, God, even you can't keep up with the speed of these threads.
To reiterate,
Please keep rates low for my permanent financing.
Please keep rates low for my construction financing so as to keep my interest reserve alive and well for extra months.
Please keep my tenants solvent long enough to complete all their improvements prior to their default.
Please keep my tenant's solvent long enough for me to sue them in court for deficiency.
Please keep my tenant's and future tenant's consumers strong enough to need beers, food, pool, and service from an ATM just long enough to pay my mortgage.
Please keep the vulture funds solvent long enough to allow me to exit this mixed use bag of shit i got for christmas.
And in sum,
For the above I hereby offer my christmas present both this year and next, my birthday, both this year and next, as well as a promise to never ever ask for anything ever again.
that is until I need you to keep my bank solvent long enough to allow them the grace to have cash available to finance the remainder of my construction.
Bob Dobbs writes:
Bah... on the radio, heard local high school football team coaches crying because they can't raise money for uniforms for the teams -- merchants won't cough up. Schools don't pay for such things in California.
.....what kind of country we are living in?..........
Feels like someone has shaved my butt with a broken beer bottle and poured rubbing alcohol all over it. Ahhhhh....feel the burn. This kind of TARP-ing will go down in history as the man culprit in the great demise of the country formerly known as AMERICA....now known as land of the BLACK HOLE...covered by the TARP.
I cannot fathom the public service cuts we face next year. They are already slashing subway lines in NYC and shifting timetables - new goal = 125% occupancy ratio.
And I expect the subway usage is gonna shoot straight up now that nobody can afford taxis.
The problem isn't Christmas... the problem is that people have become accustomed to too much bling at Christmas. So, no bling, no Christmas? Feh.
anonymous | 11.20.08 - 6:48 pm | #
Exactly!
Just give everyone who is really close a $20 in a card, you make for them, not store bought. This way they can go out with someone to a movie or an inexpensive, but nice fast food joint of their choice.
That's what I plan this year.
With all the relatives and close family, inc. wife and 2 kids, should be able to get in for about $300-$400 total. Number of people about 10-12, but remember I will spend a little more than $20 on the kids and wifey.
Thinking about the bankruptcy of GM and the nationalization of Citi and some other TBTF banks I decided to look up Federal pay scales.
Vikram Pandit, Rick Wagonner etc could be classified as part of the Senior Executive Service, in which case they would be eligible for pay of between $114,468 and $172,200. I
think most Americans could live with that even if Vik and Rick might have a problem with it.
Even UAW workers might find it a bit
of comedown if they were reclassified as GS-3,4 and 5 employees knocking down between 21 and 36k pa.
Socialism does come cheap and if we are going to be a socialist economy the sooner we Federalize the zombie
companies pay scales the better.
re: That's what was said. I was in a quandary for some time until I realized that they were forced to take the money by their own circumstances. They needed it to hope to survive!
reptillian | 11.20.08 - 6:20 pm | #
I have been thinking about this for a while now and this is what I think happened (approximately).
Lehmans fell
Reserve Funds MM funds broke the buck triggering millions (billions?)of redemptions from MM funds at IBs, banks and brokerage firms. The citizens were very restless. I personally removed a huge amount of cash from my bank account. I am sure I was not the only one.
Said IBs, banks and brokerage firms DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CASH to fund continued redemptions/withdrawals.
TARP was drawn up quickly to mollify citizens and keep their minds off of wanting to go to the bank to withdraw CASH THAT WAS NOT THERE (and probably still is not there).
TARP was not used to buy "toxic loans" or "dutch auctions", it was given to the banks which they needed because, yup, you guessed it, THEY DID NOT HAVE ANY CASH (probably because there were so many bad mortgages).
Paulsen et al have cancelled TARP II because they know the gig is up. No need to throw good money after bad.
That is just my take on it. All that turmoil and we got wooden arrows and tax free rum. And the banks got cash.
Link is to the 170 page report they issued with their reasoning. It's in Spanish. My Spanish is passable, but it's also freaking long so I'm making my way through looking at the charts
"Just give everyone who is really close a $20 in a card, you make for them, not store bought. This way they can go out with someone to a movie or an inexpensive, but nice fast food joint of their choice."
--OCDan
Or, you could enclose in the handmade card a bill for services rendered. You gotts think like a bankster...
If this blog(or the internet for that matter) is still here in 24 months, I bet the topics in the comment section will be about hunting, fishing, scavenging, proper killing and cleaning of wild game(or not so wild in the case of dogs and cats), water purification, self defense, locations of "survivor cities", bartering, and who trades for gold. better have your own piece of wilderness...
"or an inexpensive, but nice fast food joint of their choice."
--OCDan"
(Haloscan malfunction)
I think adding the "nice" part was a little too flowery, but otherwise you make a good point. Except your neices and nephews might grow up to resent you because you didn't buy them any video games and all they got was $20 bill stuffed inside some craft card and they had to go spent time with you are Burger King instead of hanging out with their friends.
CDS Guy -
Obama already knows this is the game the republicans will play. Do you know what his response is? For every bailout dollar that is forked over and creates massive public anger, Eric Holder will frog march some big time Republican Wall Street donor to prison. Why do you think they got an AG whose expertise is white collar crime. This will placate the masses by dispensing mob justice. Eventually, the Repubs will cry uncle.
A Real Trader | 11.20.08 - 6:16 pm | #
"...bartering, and who trades for gold. better have your own piece of wilderness..."
Under such a survivalist scenario I for one will not accept gold in trsde. It has no use for me. Give something I can use if you want something useful from me. Anf I do not want to bet that someone else will accept it from me later. That is the same concept as fiat currency.
FYI: As gin was the predominant drink in the Roaring 20's, many variations were created by mixing cheap grain alcohol with water and flavorings and other agents, such as juniper berry juice and glycerin. Contrary to popular belief, the spirit was not made in a bathtub. Rather, because the preferred sort of bottle was too tall to be topped off with water from a sink, they were filled from a bathtub tap.
"TBT was down over 10% today. Can someone explain to a noob why you would expect it to go up?"
I dunno 'bout TBT, but a good strategy to make money is to short treasury futures when the rate has gone as low as it is going to go, with nowhere to go but up. Of course, it's not easy to know when that has happened. But if you can hang in there, your shorts should make money as the rate goes up, assuming that no one is hoarding all the older, low-interest notes/bonds.
If this blog(or the internet for that matter) is still here in 24 months, I bet the topics in the comment section will be about hunting, fishing, scavenging, proper killing and cleaning of wild game(or not so wild in the case of dogs and cats), water purification, self defense, locations of "survivor cities", bartering, and who trades for gold. better have your own piece of wilderness...
Sounds like the last 3 months of the comments here to me...
"And I do not want to bet that someone else will accept it from me later. That is the same concept as fiat currency."
No, if there is civilization anywhere, there will be someplace to sell your gold. Unlike a fiat currency, there will not be trillions of ounces of gold devaluing yours when you get there. Very different.
"Obama has no other choice but to send people frog-marching. Forget the donors in this case, this is about political survival and social stability. Just watch."
--A Real Trader
They have already said publicly that they won't engage in the third-world style practice of throwing the opposition in jail. This was floated on NPR today.
I take this to mean that they will do exactly that, while denying it to the press.
FYI: As gin was the predominant drink in the Roaring 20's, many variations were created by mixing cheap grain alcohol with water and flavorings and other agents, such as juniper berry juice and glycerin. Contrary to popular belief, the spirit was not made in a bathtub. Rather, because the preferred sort of bottle was too tall to be topped off with water from a sink, they were filled from a bathtub tap.
Kona | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 7:13 pm | #
"Why do you think they got an AG whose expertise is white collar crime."
Because that is where the criminals are?
In sheer economic harm, who is the greater culprit. The ratings agency handing out AAA like candy at Halloween, or the guys in California handing out THC to glaucoma patients? Who did the Bush administration go after?
I, myself, moved some money out of BofA when I heard that they were going to buy Merril Lynch. That was at the time when the IBs were salivating over having access to ordinary banks' deposits.
So Ecuador disputes the fees charged, and most importantly the interest rates (LIBOR prime spread, FF rates, etc)
There are far fetched parts to it, but I won't dispute that previous high cost deals were signed even if the kickbacks (bribes) were not all tracked down
It's a whose who of banks. There is not much money at stake, Ecuador is just choosing to not repay a part of their debt they attribute to excessive interest charges because they can as debt to GDP is 25% and fairly low across all sectors.
Italy, Britain, France, Japan, The EU have the most at stake. Spain, canada, and some others are in there too
Where is the puck going and where should one be waiting?
FYI: Despite his unimpressive stature, strength, and speed, Gretzky's intelligence and reading of the game were unrivaled. He was adept at dodging checks from opposing players, and he could consistently anticipate where the puck was going to be and execute the right move at the right time. Gretzky also became known for setting up behind the net, an area that was nicknamed "Gretzky's office" because of his skills there.
Oh come on, the majority of 'criminal'
activity that led to our present plight was low level stuff like falsifying loan applications and appraisals.
Wall St, the ratings agencies, etc were guilty of poor judgement unless you believe it was the intent of the CEO's of the big banks to ruin their institutions. Then again is Barack Obama and Eric Holder going to indict SStan O'Neil for example.
Busy Treasury secretary still has time for Reagan Forbes.com File Not Found
Critics said the trip was ill-timed given the financial crisis and economic slowdown that are roiling global markets. They also pointed out that Paulson's recent actions - nationalizing the banking system and beginning to overhaul financial regulation - are out of step with Reagan's legacy of small government and deregulation.
Anonymous writes:
One question, why should the bond holders be made whole when the stockholders, employees and the govt take the hit either in incurring stock losses, tax receipts or bail out costs.
I say, its time to take out the bond holders!!!
Anonymous | 11.20.08 - 6:47 pm | #
mp(Excellent) writes: Conjure and I stated here last night that the shit would hit the fan today, but it was too orderly.
As I said, there is no capitulation, no irrational selling, not enough fear.
I think tomorrow is a big question mark.
Are there enough knife catchers for a +300 day or not?
So, how are they going to spend the remaining $600B?
Also, this doesn't tell me much. What was the $25B to Wells Fargo? Did we purchase toxic assets with it? If so, did we get the vaunted stock warrants in return? If we didn't purchase the proverbial toxic assets, what is Wells Fargo doing with the $25B?
Make no mistake, there are still a lot of institutional holdings out there. What's happening on the long bond proves that. They're still playing games.
Special collateral repo rates cannot exceed the Treasury general collateral repo rate. As a
result, settlement fails across a variety of CUSIPS can similarly become widespread and persistent when the Treasury general collateral repo rate is near zero as is currently the case.
The underlying problem is the Treasury market contracting convention that a seller can deliver securities after the originally scheduled
settlement date at an unchanged invoice price, i.e., without incurring any penalty. Introduction of a dynamic fails penalty with a finite cap
rate would remedy this problem.
The fact that the monetary base is growing at 875% annually is freaking me out right now. How does this end well?
Somebody please tell me this is all going to end well...
I think the days of merely looking into the abyss have past. I've always had a problem with that "looking" part anyway. Looking ain't dick. A man's soul is measured when he falls into the fucker.
"Reagan's legacy of small government and deregulation."
I don't think that small government is part of Reagan's legacy. Look at the deficits he ran (large for his time).
Cheney said something to the effect, "Reagan taught us that deficits don't matter." So, the current adminstration has pursued that policy. I would only add that deficits don't matter while you can afford to service the debt.
"If this blog(or the internet for that matter) is still here in 24 months, I bet the topics in the comment section will be about hunting, fishing, scavenging, proper killing and cleaning of wild game(or not so wild in the case of dogs and cats), water purification, self defense, locations of "survivor cities", bartering, and who trades for gold. better have your own piece of wilderness...
Sam Dimond | 11.20.08 - 7:06 pm | #"
I think this is a little over-blown, Just because the greatest Ponzi scheme in history fell over does not mean it is the end of civilization.
Markets will adjust and survive. Stocks will go back to being worth what they pay in dividends rather than some dubious earnings number. The banks will loan to those who can convincingly document their ability to pay it back. The well run foreign automakers will hire workers in states that preclude unions. Housing and the components used to build them will fall to an affordable level and people will buy them.
The faster we get to these levels the sooner it will be over. Paulson's efforts to re-inflate the bubble only delayed the inevitable and draw out the pain.
Re: Introduction of a dynamic fails penalty with a finite cap
rate would remedy this problem.
Yah, that will really help restore confidence and liquidity, by forcing investors into the corner.... NOT! This will keep people away from investing and increase hoarding ... who are these dumb asses?
Get it all in 5 dollar bills. Load it on to c 130's and drop it all over the populated parts of the country. Make sure it's a high altitude so you get an even spread. Take a while to find them all so it has a lasting effect.
TBT is the inverse 20-year treasury. So what you are "betting on" is that the 20-year bond collapses and no one wants to buy any more 20-year USTs.
I'm talking out my rear, but that's what I understand. Now, the risk here is that the USG will force its citizens to buy bonds.
YLSP | 11.20.08 - 7:09 pm | #
Slight clarification. TBT is the ultra short fund that is supposed to return 2x the inverse of the daily Lehman 20yr Treasury index return. This sucker is levered hence the 10% loss today.
Any of these ultra's are highly path dependent - daily returns are compounded. Understand what you are trading before you do so...
I bet this link has been posted and reposted numerous times but I didn't see it.
Most institutional investors and pension funds are barred from owning stocks below $5. So if Citigroup's stock remains below that level, it could trigger a wave of selling that would send the share price even lower. "That's the danger of crossing that $5 threshold," says Owen Malcolm, senior vice president of Sanders Financial Management in Atlanta. "They're (Citigroup) already in trouble. It could get worse."
What does he mean could. It will buddy.
Citi was another member of the YLSP-inheritance-fund. I was able to get out $9.5. I'm guessing the fall into 10k should've taken out anyone over 50; the fall into 8k should've taken out anyone over 40. Perhaps the fall into 7k gets everyone over 30 out of the stock market. It's not over until no one wants to own a company... and again, why would someone want to own a company levered up 10:1 with debt? Wait, these companies aren't in debt?
BTW, someone asked whether this information is what Bloomberg was suing for. No; that information was the junk that the Federal Reserve took as collateral for playing in the discount window. Or maybe I'm getting their programs mixed up. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong.
Blackhalo(Excellent) writes: I think this is a little over-blown, Just because the greatest Ponzi scheme in history fell over does not mean it is the end of civilization.
I think people just have a very stylized image of the end of civilization.
Here's when the bottom will be in. If you bring up stock investment at your thanksgiving table, and instead of talking about "when the bottom is" or "what a buying opportunity this is," your semi-clueless uncle/inlaw (you know who!, everyone has one) stares at you with dull, distant eyes, remembers, with pain, what happened to his retirement portfolio, and says, "who the hell would invest in stocks? Are you crazy? What is this, the 90's?" When the average, clueless idiot who knows nothing about markets or financing has given up hope, when the common lore is that investing in stocks is for sophisticated people and nice stable bonds and savings accounts are the best retirement savings, when people start scrutinizing their budgets and purchases and forego useless plastic dreck for real value, when fad merges with frugality, when the rich are frightened and ashamed of conspicuous displays of wealth, when empty stripmalls line the streets, bankrupting their owners and local municipalities with failed tax sales and vagrancy patrol costs, when wildfires burn through the vast expanses of empty houses in the inland empire, when you've got to know your neighbor, because neighbors have to help neighbors get by, when grandma moves back in, when it isn't the "other guy" who lost his job and needs and supports the kind of social programs necessary to form a floor in an economic system which relies upon built-in unemployment for job-placement efficiency, when the American Joe has it so hard, has been hit, lied to, bamboozled, and screwed over so many times that he can't afford to be a useless idiot anymore... that is the bottom. No sooner.
We're going to have to actually hurt before this can turn around; no quick fixes like the last couple of hiccups. There is going to need to be a sea-change, a consumer revolution, for things to start shaping up again.
"One question, why should the bond holders be made whole when the stockholders, employees and the govt take the hit either in incurring stock losses, tax receipts or bail out costs."
Because the first time you do it, your next T-Bill auction goes to 10% Because the Non T-Bills are paying 15%
Then mortgage rates go to 20% and that does not help homeowners with variable rate loans or cc-debt at all.
Mike in Long Island,
Yeah I forgot to mention Ultra. I'm learning, I'm learning.
To be honest making money off of these levere'd short ETFs make me feel like one of the idiot flippers who made money in the beginning of the boom period.
When everyone and their mom is getting into shorts... well... time to not trade them anymore.
The Pentagon has suffered from a cyber attack so alarming that it has taken the unprecedented step of banning the use of external hardware devices, such as flash drives and DVD's, FOX News has learned.
The attack came in the form of a global virus or worm that is spreading rapidly throughout a number of military networks.
"We have detected a global virus for which there has been alerts, and we have seen some of this on our networks," a Pentagon official told FOX News. "We are now taking steps to mitigate the virus."
The official could not reveal the source of the attack because that information remains classified.
Military computers are often referred to as part of the Global Information Grid, or GIG, a system composed of 17 million computers, many of which house classified or sensitive information.
FOX News obtained a copy of one memo sent out last week to an Army division within the Pentagon warning of the cyber attack.
"Due to the presence of commercial malware, CDR USSTRATCOM has banned the use of removable media (thumb drives, CDRs/DVDRs, floppy disks) on all DoD networks and computers effective immediately."
I for one am giving a high five to the Congress today, especially the democrats, for doing the right thing. Taking some time to think and to review a (hopefully) detailed plan by the auto makers is much better than just getting bullied into passing some crazy plan (see TARP). While they may have had sinister reasons, or they may cave when some dumb plan is presented later we will see, but for tonight, good job.
Breakout 1982;
I am with you. You will never get a bottom with half of market players looking to not miss the next up move.
You know I had that same thought. I caught the end of the dot.com bubble, it wasn't pretty. I figure I'm the contra indicator if you will. Mind you I only dabble, mostly morbid curiosity that I follow the markets anymore. When I'm thinking about shorting, it's probably time to get back in...Kinda like that video of the trader who made of show of his ability to be wrong all the time...it was pretty funny.
It might happen and may already have begun but, as Pavel points out, the means of maintaining social order in modern states are formidable.
OTOH less organized societies, Byzantine Ruins noted, are frail and can fall apart quite easily. His example of the Congo is apt.
When we start seeing failed states outside of Africa, in Latin America for example ( Mexico isn't looking too cohesive lately) then the rot could be heading our way.
"Due to the presence of commercial malware, CDR USSTRATCOM has banned the use of removable media (thumb drives, CDRs/DVDRs, floppy disks) on all DoD networks and computers effective immediately."
In secure installations, those things were banned years ago, and the USB ports were disconnected or plugged on all COTS machines.
I just saw Rev. John Hagee on the TeeVee, talking about Armageddon. He had a (surprisingly well-drawn) mural of smoke, oil, missiles, soldiers, gold, and four horsemen.
He spat a little bit as he described the End Times. (He was a tad frothy at the mouth.)
This would have been valuable, exceot for the fact that he's been saying the same thing for twenty years. He's the Chris Farley of Televangelists --- he's so excited, he's funny ... but he looks like he's going to have a seizure.
Ah well. The End Times ARE here, and the Reverend is finally right!
Also, this doesn't tell me much. What was the $25B to Wells Fargo? Did we purchase toxic assets with it? If so, did we get the vaunted stock warrants in return? If we didn't purchase the proverbial toxic assets, what is Wells Fargo doing with the $25B?
Moroco, it went to buy preferred stock in WFC. It yields 5% for the first five years, arrents for apx 1/6 of the value of the investment (so in WFC case about $4B). The NPV of the prefered is apx 50% of the value of the preferred Buffet got for his GS preferred a couple of weeks before. The terms of the preferred were the same for all the banks. Doing it in the form of preferred stock made much more sense than buying toxic assets. However, it would have been nice if we actually had someone negotiating on behalf of the gov't/taxpayers. Clearly Hank was not.
Dirk, wasn't that preferred purchased at inflated prices? I seem to remember one of the Congresscritters questioning along those lines and not getting answers?
If it's true that it's a consumer economy, then the best thing to do is to persuade consumers that they should not be banking with those that crawled under the TARP or ran to the discount window. If that is done, we the people will have succeeded in ending this charade.
Gimme some money
You know what I want
You know what I need
Or maybe you don't
Third
Wells Fargo definitely got more than their share. Damned ghost of a balance sheet
So when does the downturn start to hit Fake America?
Meaning when will it affect their real lives as opposed their current luxury of crying into their 401K alphabet soup and thinking that they'll just stay in the work force at full salary a few more years.
CRFaN | 11.20.08 - 5:54 pm | #
Here is the site for the TARP data (hat tip Ras Stash)
Speaking of "gone like Harry Lime".
We're All Fucked!
$0 Bank of Col. L. Nutz, II
do we at least get one of those pens on a chain for that moolah?
I'm calling Bottom.
Subject to revision of course.
Can hardly wait to see November car sales numbers.
If this month has not scared away all and any GM customers, nothing will.
We get to see how big the hardcore fan base is.
Hey CR, could you include information on dividends and bonuses paid for 2008 by each of these firms?
I feel like the table is not complete without it.
do we at least get one of those pens on a chain for that moolah?
serf Alan Greenspend | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 5:57 pm
No, but I can get a copy of a really cool fake NYT edition.
$158,561,409,000 Big Black Hole
DOW Chemical (NYSE:DOW) Buoyed by Mysterious Order for Green Printers Ink
Market Factors: DOW Chemical (NYSE:DOW) Buoyed by Mysterious Order for Green Printers Ink
M-F writes:
DOW Chemical (NYSE:DOW) Buoyed by Mysterious Order for Green Printers Ink
Spoof. BOO!
The new Bank of America actually features a man trying to hide under a pillow. Then Kiefer Sutherland urges us to spend. Or he will torture us with pliers.
INFINITY NOW........
No, but I can get a copy of a really cool fake NYT edition.
Volker the Viking | 11.20.08 - 5:57 pm | #
nice! those are collector items now.
ps. i need more eyes too, feels like it's getting pretty close.
The new Bank of America actually features a man trying to hide under a pillow. Then Kiefer Sutherland urges us to spend. Or he will torture us with pliers.
karelian | 11.20.08 - 5:59 pm
I used to pay extra for the rough stuff.
Eh? 0 is still zero, right?
Pff, you scared me there.
ps. i need more eyes too, feels like it's getting pretty close.
serf Alan Greenspend | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 6:00 pm
Don't run at the first puff of smoke. This one will take some nerve. Remember, the outcome has already been decided.
For some perspective:
At Citigroup they paid $31.48bn in taxes from 2003-2006 inclusive. 2007 is -$2.2bn
Never mind everything else, they almost haven't paid a dime of net taxes in 6 years
I'm actually a little surprised at the Big 3 outrage versus the Wall St outrage
Mike the Headless Chicken - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Don't be like Mike.
Why Paulson is mailing it in:
Back when the TARP was conceived, Treasury's thinking was that leveraging the Fed's balance sheet to create a massive hedge fund to buy distressed assets would solve the problem.
However that idea became inoperative once European countries began direct capital infusions. The problem evolved from one that could be fixed from within to one that relied on intervention from without.
Fantasizing a "market solution" has revealed the limits of Paulson's imagination. Once the government becomes an owner, it's on a track that few republicans can stomach.
So here we go with the politics. Paulson will now sit on his hands until Jan 20th- allowing the pressures to build, and leaving the inevitable additional spending the the democrats. Republicans are calculating that this way they can stage a comeback in Congress in 2 years.
Thanks for the list of institutions to boycott.
You guys got got two threads ahead of me while I was writing some Dire Straits Humor
I hope at least a few people can still laugh after today.
Republican's tactics are no longer gonna work.
They are revealed to all but the fundies as frauds.
Any/all of these institutions who have naming rights on stadiums, buildings, etc. should have them revoked and replaced by "TAXPAYER STADIUM" or at a minimum, "TARP ARENA."
It's only fair..., now that I own a part of it.
Send your contributions to the Church of What's Happening Now!!!
Conversation in the office was interesting today- Bush makes Nixon look like a piker.
This is going to be a very interesting change of administrations.
John McCain must be breathing a sigh of relief at missing responsibility for this messed up country.
Spend money on the poor- it won't go under a mattress!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Volker you are the last guy I would expect to like THAT post. Lighten up LOL.
and leaving the inevitable additional spending the the democrats. Republicans are calculating that this way they can stage a comeback in Congress in 2 years.
I doubt the Republican strategists are this stupid. They don't want maximum meltdown to occur until after O takes office.
Otherwise in four years, people will be comparing the S&P during election 2012 to the meltdown prior to Jan 20th 2009 and say, "What a great biz climate turnaround!"
this is like, vindaloo
"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead." Thomas Paine
Paulson's TARP, CPR, defibulator, last rites....whatever...tag the toe, the patients are dead.
I'm going to my bank tomorrow (yep, on the list) and taking out a big chunk of cash money for safekeeping.
Somali Pirate Corp to Suspend Foreclosures!!
At 400 points a day, after 10 business days you are down 4000 points.
After 20 days we are at zero.
What cannot continue, (including Dow going down), must stop.
They are revealed to all but the fundies as frauds.
The republicans have a HUGE problem: The only thing in common between fiscal and social conservatives is the word "conservative". Time to choose: Social or Fiscal?
Kohn to Somali Pirate Corp: Tighter Monetary Policy Isnt the Answer
Where is Joe's Bank?
What cannot continue, (including Dow going down), must stop.
You preclude the possibility of negative dow. (Please! Take my shares! I'll PAY you to take them.)
For a lawyer, you should consider all the possibilities, liz. LOL.
So lets' C here.
C's market cap is $25.67B. Sans tarpage, they're worth ~$670M.
Wow.
Nostrovia,
Dear 1st FS Corporation and Bank of Commerce:
What's with the restraint? I mean, your money hardly amounts to a toot on the toilet here? Get with the program. You missed out on the fun by at least two decimal places.
Somali Pirate Corp Blames Short Sellers For Collapse
Fiscal, fiscal, fiscal.
Except not right now. . .
I think we are past the point of allocating any of this to the next administration. When the S&P is down 50%, confidence is already destroyed. You dont make a claim that the future administration destroyed the confidence when the whole selling point of the new administration was about hope for the future, no matter which one was elected. Uh, hullo!?!?!?! One only need look back at the last ten years or so. It's not so much a presidential thing, it is a fundamental breakdown of our ability to understand where we were headed, and our misplaced confidence in the masters of the universe, the financiers, etc. Go back and read the print from the heady days...we held these fools up as if they were gods. But they have been unmasked. Next step is the convictions. Only then can anyone get any confidence back.
Comrade Misean,
They took in $50bn today in new private capital
Easier to read like this:
$9,000,000\tBroadway Financial Corporation
$16,369,000\t1st FS Corporation
$17,000,000\tBank of Commerce Holdings
$151,500,000\tProvident Bancshares Corp.
$200,000,000\tWashington Federal Inc.
$214,181,000\tUmpqua Holdings Corp.
$298,737,000\tUCBH Holdings, Inc.
$300,000,000\tValley National Bancorp
$361,172,000\tTCF Financial Corporation
$866,540,000\tFirst Horizon National Corporation
$1,398,071,000\tHuntington Bancshares
$1,400,000,000\tZions Bancorporation
$1,576,000,000\tNorthern Trust Corporation
$1,715,000,000\tMarshall & Ilsley Corporation
$2,000,000,000\tState Street Corporation
$2,250,000,000\tComerica Inc.
$2,500,000,000\tKeyCorp
$3,000,000,000\tBank of New York Mellon Corporation
$3,133,640,000\tBB&T Corp.
$3,500,000,000\tSunTrust Banks, Inc.
$3,500,000,000\tRegions Financial Corp.
$3,555,199,000\tCapital One Financial Corporation
$6,599,000,000\tU.S. Bancorp
$10,000,000,000\tThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
$10,000,000,000\tMorgan Stanley
$10,000,000,000\tMerrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
$15,000,000,000\tBank of America Corporation
$25,000,000,000\tCitigroup Inc.
$25,000,000,000\tJPMorgan Chase & Co.
$25,000,000,000\tWells Fargo & Company
Hey WFC - hooocoodanode?
Oh, could anyone give me an approximation to the amount of money we're talking about being traded daily when the 3-month T-Bill yield is so close to zero?
...TARP data...Here are the details released as of Nov 17th:
CAPITAL PURCHASE PROGRAM: $25,000,000,000\t($25B) Citigroup Inc.
Market capitalization of Citigroup on November 20, 2008: $25,670,000,000 ($25.67B)
And they didn't even have to waste gas on the gulf stream.
I second the wish for a comparo btwn bonuses paid and the aid. Some EU news I read indicated a fair correlation, which is just outrageous.
Fun data!
RPS
Paulson's TARP, CPR, defibulator, last rites....whatever...tag the toe, the patients are dead.
LOL
Bank of America ...$15B
Citigroup ...$25B
Wells Fargo ...$25B
A former banker greeting me at Wal-Mart... priceless
Dear Broadway Financial :
Nine Million? That's it? You must feel like you went looting after the Rodney King riots and only walked out with a small clock radio...,
Well, maybe you can resubmit.
Hey Capital One, what's in your wallet now?
TARP!
WFC may not have needed the $25 (yet) but once they took on the turd, they needed that and more. Im surprised they are holding up as well as they are, but heck, with the acccounting changes (60 to 90 to 120 day delinq dating) and the tax preferences (thanks a TRILLION hank) and the 2nd lien loans they are hiding, it is understandable. But once they take C down completely, they are sort of uh, how say?, uh, running out of targets.
Dow is like absolute zero. Can't go below it.
Neg dow. Mind blowing, right?
And my credit union nowhere in sight on the list...just trying to look for the little pieces of silver in the lining.
Take a look at the JPM 10Q. $95 billion of home equity loans in the portfolio. They only assumed a 3% default rate so far. Their home equity product has an assumed default rate less than half of their net chargeoff rate for whole mortgages.
Doesn't take much imagination to envision losses on the home equity portfolio that suck up $25 billion.
Lizzie stop I'm hearing Doors music.
How about a list of banks that have stated they aren't going under the TARP?
Within the last week or two there was a news item on yahoo finance about something like Sierra bank (holding?), located in CA of all places, that issued a press release stating that they didn't need to hide under the TARP. That's what we need. A list of institutions that have been managed well and merit our deposits.
Dow is like absolute zero. Can't go below it.
And you do know that negative absolute temperatures are possible too, right?
@CR: It seems that some of those bailouts are missing 1 to 3 zeros compared to the others! "Here's your TARP. It's less than 1/1000 what we gave to the big guys, but at least you get something. Enjoy your grain of rice from the iron rice bowl."
@lawyerliz: "At 400 points a day... What cannot continue, (including Dow going down), must stop."
Unfortunately the DOW can lose 5% or 6% every day pretty much all the way back to the Stone Age...
Nitey nite guys.
The sun will come up tooooomorrrrrow.
OT:
So... what happens with the CDS's when GM goes tits up? Are we looking at a Lehman Bros. level of destruction? Higher? Lower?
I'm absolutely floored that (seemingly) the average American is calling for Detroit's Blood (no bailout). I know this will be the next leg down (if Citi doesn't beat them that is) but what will it bring?
Cn
where's GM and Ford!?! They aren't on the list!
;p
section321 writes:
Hey Capital One, what's in your wallet now?
Vikings!!! Freaking Vikings and they're gonna fucking win!
Some of these banks were forced to take the funds, right?
Reflation will not solve deflatio
"So here we go with the politics. Paulson will now sit on his hands until Jan 20th- allowing the pressures to build, and leaving the inevitable additional spending the the democrats. Republicans are calculating that this way they can stage a comeback in Congress in 2 years.
CDS guy"
CDS Guy -
Obama already knows this is the game the republicans will play. Do you know what his response is? For every bailout dollar that is forked over and creates massive public anger, Eric Holder will frog march some big time Republican Wall Street donor to prison. Why do you think they got an AG whose expertise is white collar crime. This will placate the masses by dispensing mob justice. Eventually, the Repubs will cry uncle.
EHP,
"They took in $50bn today in new private capital"
Forgot about that. So they are worth -50B give or take a few 100M.
Nice.
CSS, I agree. We're Fjucked.
Nostrovia,
Is this what bloomberg was suing for the Gov to disclose?
Cramer just showed the 4 Bad Bears chart from Doug (of course the chart had in 3pt type courtesy of CR... sorry Doug).
This has to mean a big bounce tomorrow.
Dow going to a Kelvin scale?
Paulsen ain't done yet.
How long until a comparable list of state and local municipalities form a similar list.
I'd bet Sacramento, NYC and Keokuk make the top three.
We'll check back tomorrow to see how that's going.
I'm absolutely floored that (seemingly) the average American is calling for Detroit's Blood (no bailout).
I agree, they'll only self righteous about situations where they think they have no skin in the game.
Dear Broadway Financial :
Nine Million? That's it? You must feel like you went looting after the Rodney King riots and only walked out with a small clock radio...,
Well, maybe you can resubmit.
Missing the Point
LOL!!!
OK, Here's a question..
Take Citi, Enterprise value without TARP ~600Mill
We get warrants for stock, right? Preferred or Common, and at what price, the ~20 when we gave them the $ or now at 5? My guess, not now..
And remind me.. What are Preferred and common worth after BK? Thought so..
GD writes:
Some of these banks were forced to take the funds, right?
+++++++++++++++++++
That's what was said. I was in a quandary for some time until I realized that they were forced to take the money by their own circumstances. They needed it to hope to survive!
@Volker:
Spam, Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,
Spam!!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
The Rust Belt, and North America's biggest freshwater supply, will soon be In Play.
So when do we start that SantiClaus Rally
craig,
"Dow going to a Kelvin scale?"
That's Calvin Scale.
Nostrovia,
can someone use the TARP money to get henry waxman some rhinoplasty. my kid is scared to look at him.
We may be witnessing the unwinding of Reagonommics. Back to early 80s values for all assets.
Obama already knows this is the game the republicans will play. Do you know what his response is? For every bailout dollar that is forked over and creates massive public anger, Eric Holder will frog march some big time Republican Wall Street donor to prison. Why do you think they got an AG whose expertise is white collar crime. This will placate the masses by dispensing mob justice. Eventually, the Repubs will cry uncle.
A Real Trade
God I hope you are correct. At least I'll have some entertainment to get me through the depression
Christmas has officially been cancelled.
Sacramento TV News, My TV, Movies, Music, and Entertainment News from KQCA My58.com
This will placate the masses by dispensing mob justice.
Yeah, because clearly these guys are innocent victims.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- Tough economic times are being blamed for the cancellation of Sacramento's annual Santa Parade, an institution that traditionally draws thousands of children of all ages to downtown streets.
The event, which usually features Santa Claus and his wife, was originally set to take place along downtown streets on Nov. 29.
Laurie Hensley, organizer of the event, said the celebration is being dropped because of a lack of sponsors and advertising.
The decision marks the first time in 26 years that the event will not take place.
Organizers said they are $15,000 to $20,000 short. The event is organized privately.
Ghost of XMAS Future Sends this:
Ecuador's Audit Commission Finds `Illegality' in Debt (Update5)
Ecuador's Audit Commission Finds `Illegality' in Debt (Update5) - Bloomberg.com
We're not talking about the perception of debatable illegitimacy,'' Correa said after receiving the report at a public event in Quito. Government supporters ringed the auditorium where he spoke and chantedwe owe nothing,'' the debt is paid,'' andput the thieves in jail.''
The price on the $510 million bonds due 2012 fell as much as 2.5 cents today to 24 cents on the dollar, sending yields over 70 percent, after the release of the report. The bonds have tumbled from 95 cents in mid-September as speculation has mounted that Ecuador, squeezed by a tumble in its main export, oil, will default for the second time in less than a decade.
Capitulation,
"So when do we start that SantiClaus Rally"
Didn't you get MS's memo yesterday? Santa applied for top, got none, and said he doesn't have sufficient cash on hand to pay for the magic corn that makes his Rheindeer fly.
His CP is due and it's too expensive right now to reissue. His LOC isn't large enough to afford the fuel costs.
So, long story short, he's taking Christmas off.
Knurd!
Nostrova,
I guess the lesson to be learned is this : when somebody is handing out free money, people/banks/institutions will take it.
This works with beer too, by the way.
How about we spend the 2nd half of the TARP on new automobiles?
$150 billion would buy 6 million new cars@$25,000 each.
Buy $1000 in bank stock and you get a lottery ticket to win one of them.
top = TARP
Comrade Scared Shitless --
Stupid Christmas parade organizers. Why didn't they just file to become a bank holding company?
Misean --
Didn't you get MS's memo yesterday? Santa applied for TARP, got none, and said he doesn't have sufficient cash on hand to pay for the magic corn that makes his Rheindeer fly.
Maybe he should have asked Hanukkah Harry? I hear he works for Goldman.
Spam, Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam, Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam, Spam,Spam,Spam,Spam,
Spam!!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Citizen AllenM | 11.20.08 - 6:20 pm
Sorry. G'night and good lock.
Dead Banks Walking
$25,000,000 SOMALI PIRATES
Nemo,
Bwahahahahahahahhahahhahahahahaha!
Nostrovia,
Maybe he should have asked Hanukkah Harry? I hear he works for Goldman.
Nemo
No, that's Hanukkah Henry.
Is this what bloomberg was suing for the Gov to disclose?
No. they're suing to see where all the liquidity injections went
(you know all those 4 letter pre-TARP facilities)
most of us have just forgotten about all that.
Pirates better get that ransom fast. At the rate oil is declining, it ain't gonna be worth $25mm.
This works with beer too, by the way.
Missing the Point
Homer like.
Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm........BEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEER!!!!
Drool.......
This works with beer too, by the way.
Missing the Point
Homer like.
Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm........BEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEER!!!!
Drool.......
Airplane time...Catch you cats later.
Nostrovia,
A couple of companies (Shell?) have taken large oil tankers under contract. Are they going to use them to store oil at these prices? I don't imagine there is enough space at the storage facility in OK, where all the oil futures deliverables go.
all i'm gonna say, watch out for the Santa riots on Dec 13.
Santas are ready to roll. on Flickr - Photo Sharing!
"In economics, it's been understood for hundreds of years that wealth is created when we lower barriers to trade, provided there is a trust infrastructure of laws and enforcement to prevent cheating and ensure trade is uncoerced." - Source here
Seems like we lowered the barriers to trade a bit too far ("here, take this mortgage money, no one will want it back"), and forgot to maintain the trust infrastructure ("we don't need additional capital"). Now we're moving on to coerced trade ("your taxes to cover our losses")...
Eric Holder will frog march some big time Republican Wall Street donor to prison.
Please go to any of the campaign disclosure sites and check the breakdown by industry and party. Wall Street already hedged its bet on a Democratic Congress and Administration...
10-yr. yield under 3%?
I'm buying some TBT tomorrow.
I think we will see Citi over the $5 mark for at least a bit tomorrow...just sayin'
CKP.O- CITIGROUP INC CALL 5.00
Volume 55,706
Open Option Interest 4600
Karl is so fun, even this is about a month old:
The Stark Choice Now Facing America:
The Stark Choice Now Facing America - The Market Ticker
However, The United States is just as broke as we are individually - in fact, more so.
Treasury will have to issue three trillion dollars of new debt over the next 12 months in an attempt to make this work. But Treasury has been using very short-term debt - mostly four week and 13 week "bills", to fund the existing debt, because they are cheaper. As such the total amount of these auctions could easily reach five trillion dollars over the next 12 months.
Already, Treasury is issuing more than $100 billion dollars in this debt a week, on average, including new issues and rollovers. This is about double the total amount of debt that foreigners (or US interests) hold in total, and we have barely begun to actually issue the debt necessary to make the "TARP" operate.
We are, in effect, borrowing to pay interest. If you have ever tried to do this personally, you know that doing so almost always leads to bankruptcy.
here he is today:
Tired of The Crash?
The market and economy will not stop falling apart until:
Paulson is fired and his policies cease.
We have transparency in balance sheets - for every firm on the exchange. No exceptions. All Level 3 asset mark models and assets identified - period.
Bernanke withdraws all his alphabet soup programs or is removed from office and his successor does, and the "crowding out" in the credit markets ceases.
"Basel Too writes:
Eric Holder will frog march some big time Republican Wall Street donor to prison.
Please go to any of the campaign disclosure sites and check the breakdown by industry and party. Wall Street already hedged its bet on a Democratic Congress and Administration..."
Basel Too -
Obama has no other choice but to send people frog-marching. Forget the donors in this case, this is about political survival and social stability. Just watch.
Karl does have a small point:
Your 401k is a 201k (and will soon be a 41k) because you (collectively) sat on your butts last October when I started running petitions and because we have managed to garner only 50-odd people at protests.
There should be hundreds of thousands.
There should be general strikes - people who simply refuse to go to work, en-masse, across the nation.
There should have not been one Congressman or woman who voted for the bailout returned to office.
Senator James Inhofe has revealed that Henry Paulson was behind the threats of martial law and a new great depression prior to the passage of the bailout bill, having made such warnings during a conference call on September 19th, around two weeks before the legislation was eventually approved by both the Senate and Congress.
Re: Kristina's usual class warfare stuff:
LA Times story about how Wall Street donated the vast majority of its contributions to Democratic candidates this election cycle linked below. This continued through the general election.
Doesn't mean that Holder wouldn't ONLY go after Republican donors, but in Washington, money talks. Democrats were by far the bigger beneficiaries of Wall Street this election cycle.
Democrats are darlings of Wall St. - Los Angeles Times
But please, don't let facts interfere with your revenge fantasies.
Your 401k is a 201k (and will soon be a 41k) because you (collectively) sat on your butts
The Crash has been backed in the cake for quite some time. A protest will not stop the evaporation of illusion.
The money's not real.
Money is a symbolic representation of goods & services. All that stuff went overseas, man. If you want your 401K, you're gonna have to fight India and China to get it back but I'm not sure how you're going to move a manufacturing plant.
rich - 30-year at 3.49%. Did you load up on BHP a few days back, or wait?
I should tell my Sis to become a bank. Their construction co. which was 7 offices in 3 states (SW)is down to two. She emailed me today. No Christmas exchange. I don't think they will be around as a biz next year.
I just got home from work. Anything happen today I should know about??
aw, SOP
Everyone is freaking out now. Fast Money had a TA trader saying spx is going to 400-600 and Cramer laid out his 8 point plan that must be adopted in order to avoid the next great depression.
If ever there was a contrary play it would be to go long sometime soon. I think this sucker is going down, but there has got to be a bounce somewhere right? Right?
Bond Girl writes:
$158,561,409,000 Big Black Hole
Bond Girl | 11.20.08 - 5:58 pm | #
You ain't kiddin'!
Tell me again what the taxpayers got for all this.
Oh that's right, serious deflationary depression.
Thanks.
Sincerely,
Hank Paulso
How can someone who owns a company not be able to afford Christmas gifts? What are they accustomed to giving each other -- Ferraris?
My retired maiden aunt who just got her pension cut isn't even begging off of Christmas. Granted, she's probably just going to give a token present, but still.
The problem isn't Christmas... the problem is that people have become accustomed to too much bling at Christmas. So, no bling, no Christmas? Feh.
BREAKING NEWS...
America, your pony is dead.
Yes, but they represent states of HIGHER energy than positive temperatures. Consider the reciprocal of temperature , k=1/T:
If it gets hotter, k decreases. k can decrease even below zero, if only a limited number of energy states is considered. T is then negative, too.
but but but... I named my pony Frasier!
The market will definitely be going lower, because I cashed out 2/3rds of my shorts today.
"Cramer laid out his 8 point plan that must be adopted in order to avoid the next great depression."
+++++++++++++
Remember when he went bananas begging the fed to open the discount window? Wasn't that when the s&p was much higher. Bernanke may get his advice from Cramer.
"I'm buying some TBT tomorrow.
rich"
I'm with you. And then I am going to forget about the market until post Thansgiving.
Depression movies coming to a theatre near you:
It's A Wonderful Life II
Mr. Smith Goes to Washington II
The Phantom President
Gold Diggers of 2009
Flying Down to Paraguay
Hallelujah, I'm a Bum
The Thin Man
My Man Paulson
Reckless
citizen energyecon writes:
but but but... I named my pony Frasier!
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 6:48 pm | #
LOL!!!!
$15,000,000,000\tBank of America Corporation
Was 35 two months ago, 11 now. Little mystery as to why they don't want to reveal the list in real time. Of course some market participants do have the information in real time. Nothing like a government policy of asymmetrical information to engender newfound confidence in the system based on transparency. Not.
Does anyone think there should be a kinda Watergate-like special investigation here or some banking buddies that get up on a stage somewhere and sing a song?
Nixon - When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal
YouTube - Nixon - When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal
"The Thin Man"
That is funny.
"Somali pirates demand 25 million dollars for Saudi oil tanker."
The Saudis should tell them to just keep it for a few months. "We'll get back to you someday" might be a good approach. No hurry.
Bah... on the radio, heard local high school football team coaches crying because they can't raise money for uniforms for the teams -- merchants won't cough up. Schools don't pay for such things in California.
My response -- play in sweats. Strap the pads on top. There are a lot of hardships coming, but some hardships aren't really hardships.
The best investment now may be a good, sturdy pair of shoes. They will be useful for standing in bread/soup lines and hopping freights. Good shoes will be valuable. I saw them stolen in a flop house, in a movie -- the one where the man and woman shared a hotel room with a curtain between the room's two beds.
Kona writes:
Does anyone think there should be a kinda Watergate-like special investigation here or some banking buddies that get up on a stage somewhere and sing a song?
Nixon - When the president does it, that means that it is not illegal
Didn't you get the hint? It's all a big club, and we peasants are not invited.
Ecuador 's Pres. Correra's explanation:
Google Translate
Somali Pirate Corp shares tumble despite Alwaleed move
This is a great time for up-and-coming slum lords with cash in hand. That subject alone should be good for several Hollywood films.
GD 2 Poll - Yes or No...
Dear God,
Um, God, even you can't keep up with the speed of these threads.
To reiterate,
Please keep rates low for my permanent financing.
Please keep rates low for my construction financing so as to keep my interest reserve alive and well for extra months.
Please keep my tenants solvent long enough to complete all their improvements prior to their default.
Please keep my tenant's solvent long enough for me to sue them in court for deficiency.
Please keep my tenant's and future tenant's consumers strong enough to need beers, food, pool, and service from an ATM just long enough to pay my mortgage.
Please keep the vulture funds solvent long enough to allow me to exit this mixed use bag of shit i got for christmas.
And in sum,
For the above I hereby offer my christmas present both this year and next, my birthday, both this year and next, as well as a promise to never ever ask for anything ever again.
that is until I need you to keep my bank solvent long enough to allow them the grace to have cash available to finance the remainder of my construction.
And with that, we all say,
AMEN.
Can I get a WHAT WHAT?
New York's Cuomo Queries Somali Pirate Corp on Bonuses and Raises (Update1)
crisy&cole yes
Bob Dobbs writes:
Bah... on the radio, heard local high school football team coaches crying because they can't raise money for uniforms for the teams -- merchants won't cough up. Schools don't pay for such things in California.
.....what kind of country we are living in?..........
crispy
YES
Somali pirates are going to meet the Egyptian Army is my guess.
Egypt's the big loser here as traffic
stays away from Suez.
Rich, Sir, how long are you planning to hold TBT. A trade or an investment?
.....what kind of country we are living in?..........
Jay D |
A bankrupt one, both financially and morally.
Somali Pirate Corp Mulling Overseas Life Unit Sale to China Fund, Nikkei Says
Feels like someone has shaved my butt with a broken beer bottle and poured rubbing alcohol all over it. Ahhhhh....feel the burn. This kind of TARP-ing will go down in history as the man culprit in the great demise of the country formerly known as AMERICA....now known as land of the BLACK HOLE...covered by the TARP.
wally-
"we'll get back to ya"
LOL
I cannot fathom the public service cuts we face next year. They are already slashing subway lines in NYC and shifting timetables - new goal = 125% occupancy ratio.
And I expect the subway usage is gonna shoot straight up now that nobody can afford taxis.
Bob Dobbs,
Couldn't agree more. People better learn the difference between wants and needs sooner rather than later...
Headline: Congress insists on business plan from automakers that want aid
How come no one demanded business plans from the banks when they got their handout? Do they even have a business plan? What could it be?
"Time to choose: Social or Fiscal?"
They refuse to make that choice. Until they do, they will remain irrelevant.
I just KNOW GM will come back!!!! Btw, have it on good authority that Dale Earnhard has been reincarnated, too...
"People better learn the difference between wants and needs sooner rather than later...
Sam Dimond"
Example: Want beer.
Need: Alcohol.
Result: Drink malt liquor.
The problem isn't Christmas... the problem is that people have become accustomed to too much bling at Christmas. So, no bling, no Christmas? Feh.
anonymous | 11.20.08 - 6:48 pm | #
Exactly!
Just give everyone who is really close a $20 in a card, you make for them, not store bought. This way they can go out with someone to a movie or an inexpensive, but nice fast food joint of their choice.
That's what I plan this year.
With all the relatives and close family, inc. wife and 2 kids, should be able to get in for about $300-$400 total. Number of people about 10-12, but remember I will spend a little more than $20 on the kids and wifey.
rich writes:
10-yr. yield under 3%?
I'm buying some TBT tomorrow.
rich
TBT was down over 10% today. Can someone explain to a noob why you would expect it to go up?
CNBC: SOMALI PIRATES IPO OFFER PRICE 1 OUNCE SILVER
Time to choose: Social or Fascist?"
Thinking about the bankruptcy of GM and the nationalization of Citi and some other TBTF banks I decided to look up Federal pay scales.
Vikram Pandit, Rick Wagonner etc could be classified as part of the Senior Executive Service, in which case they would be eligible for pay of between $114,468 and $172,200. I
think most Americans could live with that even if Vik and Rick might have a problem with it.
Even UAW workers might find it a bit
of comedown if they were reclassified as GS-3,4 and 5 employees knocking down between 21 and 36k pa.
Socialism does come cheap and if we are going to be a socialist economy the sooner we Federalize the zombie
companies pay scales the better.
re: That's what was said. I was in a quandary for some time until I realized that they were forced to take the money by their own circumstances. They needed it to hope to survive!
reptillian | 11.20.08 - 6:20 pm | #
I have been thinking about this for a while now and this is what I think happened (approximately).
Paulsen et al have cancelled TARP II because they know the gig is up. No need to throw good money after bad.
That is just my take on it. All that turmoil and we got wooden arrows and tax free rum. And the banks got cash.
re: Ecuador and declaration of debt to be illegal
http://www.auditoriadeuda.org.ec/images/stories/documentos/informe_final_CAIC.pdf
Link is to the 170 page report they issued with their reasoning. It's in Spanish. My Spanish is passable, but it's also freaking long so I'm making my way through looking at the charts
"Just give everyone who is really close a $20 in a card, you make for them, not store bought. This way they can go out with someone to a movie or an inexpensive, but nice fast food joint of their choice."
--OCDan
Or, you could enclose in the handmade card a bill for services rendered. You gotts think like a bankster...
or make donation to food bank. thats what my daughter wants instead of prezzies
"There should have not been one Congressman or woman who voted for the bailout returned to office."
exactly...too late to whine now.
everyone had their chance.
everyone blew it.
this would be a completely different scenario had at least 50% of the suckers had known that they weren't around next january.
enjoy watching the debacle unfold before your very eyes and the politicians continue their song & dance....
If this blog(or the internet for that matter) is still here in 24 months, I bet the topics in the comment section will be about hunting, fishing, scavenging, proper killing and cleaning of wild game(or not so wild in the case of dogs and cats), water purification, self defense, locations of "survivor cities", bartering, and who trades for gold. better have your own piece of wilderness...
Official G-20 statement in English: Statement From G-20 Summit: In English at The Catherine Austin Fitts Blog ---- Read this very carefully and understand what future lies for us
San Dimond, we've already had all those discussions last month.
Re: Emp writes:
TBT was down over 10% today. Can someone explain to a noob why you would expect it to go up?
Buy low, sell high.
TBT is the inverse 20-year treasury. So what you are "betting on" is that the 20-year bond collapses and no one wants to buy any more 20-year USTs.
I'm talking out my rear, but that's what I understand. Now, the risk here is that the USG will force its citizens to buy bonds.
eeek
For holidays, buy local.
"or an inexpensive, but nice fast food joint of their choice."
--OCDan"
(Haloscan malfunction)
I think adding the "nice" part was a little too flowery, but otherwise you make a good point. Except your neices and nephews might grow up to resent you because you didn't buy them any video games and all they got was $20 bill stuffed inside some craft card and they had to go spent time with you are Burger King instead of hanging out with their friends.
"There should have not been one Congressman or woman who voted for the bailout returned to office."
++++++++++++++++++++++++
But then we would have had a Republican majority. More supply-side, trickle-down bs. The only thing that has trickled down is the debt.
The old lady was correct.
Its turtles all the way down.
CDS Guy -
Obama already knows this is the game the republicans will play. Do you know what his response is? For every bailout dollar that is forked over and creates massive public anger, Eric Holder will frog march some big time Republican Wall Street donor to prison. Why do you think they got an AG whose expertise is white collar crime. This will placate the masses by dispensing mob justice. Eventually, the Repubs will cry uncle.
A Real Trader | 11.20.08 - 6:16 pm | #
This has warmed my heart- thank you
Thanks, YLSP.
Is there a risk holding commodities ETFs like DBA If Comex(ny mex?) is going down?
"...bartering, and who trades for gold. better have your own piece of wilderness..."
Under such a survivalist scenario I for one will not accept gold in trsde. It has no use for me. Give something I can use if you want something useful from me. Anf I do not want to bet that someone else will accept it from me later. That is the same concept as fiat currency.
Short those bastards!
"A bankrupt one, both financially and morally."
Comrade Kristina
exactamundo
FYI: As gin was the predominant drink in the Roaring 20's, many variations were created by mixing cheap grain alcohol with water and flavorings and other agents, such as juniper berry juice and glycerin. Contrary to popular belief, the spirit was not made in a bathtub. Rather, because the preferred sort of bottle was too tall to be topped off with water from a sink, they were filled from a bathtub tap.
"That is the same concept as fiat currency.
Zephyr"
But gold is shiny. People always want shiny things.
jeebus,
SOMEBODY scalped ma and pa kettle on the long bond today huh.
"Merle, this is scary, lets put it in bonds."
That got plucked like the IRS going after a bank account for back payroll taxes.
Ooh fa.
Re:TBT
...or the risk is long term rate will go all japanese like
even here in the US long rates were well under 3% for years in the 30s
"TBT was down over 10% today. Can someone explain to a noob why you would expect it to go up?"
I dunno 'bout TBT, but a good strategy to make money is to short treasury futures when the rate has gone as low as it is going to go, with nowhere to go but up. Of course, it's not easy to know when that has happened. But if you can hang in there, your shorts should make money as the rate goes up, assuming that no one is hoarding all the older, low-interest notes/bonds.
Is this right?
If this blog(or the internet for that matter) is still here in 24 months, I bet the topics in the comment section will be about hunting, fishing, scavenging, proper killing and cleaning of wild game(or not so wild in the case of dogs and cats), water purification, self defense, locations of "survivor cities", bartering, and who trades for gold. better have your own piece of wilderness...
Sounds like the last 3 months of the comments here to me...
It's time to consider the possibility of a major sell-off.
"And I do not want to bet that someone else will accept it from me later. That is the same concept as fiat currency."
No, if there is civilization anywhere, there will be someplace to sell your gold. Unlike a fiat currency, there will not be trillions of ounces of gold devaluing yours when you get there. Very different.
Is this right?
That's what I'm hoping.
"Obama has no other choice but to send people frog-marching. Forget the donors in this case, this is about political survival and social stability. Just watch."
--A Real Trader
They have already said publicly that they won't engage in the third-world style practice of throwing the opposition in jail. This was floated on NPR today.
I take this to mean that they will do exactly that, while denying it to the press.
Sorted:
$25,000,000,000 \tCitigroup Inc.
$25,000,000,000 \tJPMorgan Chase & Co.
$25,000,000,000 \tWells Fargo & Company
$15,000,000,000 \tBank of America Corporation
$10,000,000,000 \tThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
$10,000,000,000 \tMorgan Stanley
$10,000,000,000 \tMerrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
$6,599,000,000 \tU.S. Bancorp
$3,555,199,000 \tCapital One Financial Corporation
$3,500,000,000 \tSunTrust Banks, Inc.
$3,500,000,000 \tRegions Financial Corp.
$3,133,640,000 \tBB&T Corp.
$3,000,000,000 \tBank of New York Mellon Corporation
$2,500,000,000 \tKeyCorp
$2,250,000,000 \tComerica Inc.
$2,000,000,000 \tState Street Corporation
$1,715,000,000 \tMarshall & Ilsley Corporation
$1,576,000,000 \tNorthern Trust Corporation
$1,400,000,000 \tZions Bancorporation
$1,398,071,000 \tHuntington Bancshares
$866,540,000 \tFirst Horizon National Corporation
$361,172,000 \tTCF Financial Corporation
$300,000,000 \tValley National Bancorp
$298,737,000 \tUCBH Holdings, Inc.
$214,181,000 \tUmpqua Holdings Corp.
$200,000,000 \tWashington Federal Inc.
$151,500,000 \tProvident Bancshares Corp.
$17,000,000 \tBank of Commerce Holdings
$16,369,000 \t1st FS Corporation
$9,000,000 \tBroadway Financial Corporation
$158,561,409,000
Bush will blanket pardon the entire government......How bout that TARP.
mp, I really enjoy your commentary, especially last nights, I'm left wondering what a "major" sell off looks like after what we've already seen...?
FYI: As gin was the predominant drink in the Roaring 20's, many variations were created by mixing cheap grain alcohol with water and flavorings and other agents, such as juniper berry juice and glycerin. Contrary to popular belief, the spirit was not made in a bathtub. Rather, because the preferred sort of bottle was too tall to be topped off with water from a sink, they were filled from a bathtub tap.
Kona | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 7:13 pm | #
Go long tall glass bottles?
mp - major selloff? How major? 20% in a day?
"Why do you think they got an AG whose expertise is white collar crime."
Because that is where the criminals are?
In sheer economic harm, who is the greater culprit. The ratings agency handing out AAA like candy at Halloween, or the guys in California handing out THC to glaucoma patients? Who did the Bush administration go after?
I take this to mean that they will do exactly that, while denying it to the press.
we will hear the phrase "rule of law" again lots come Jan 20th
Kristina, Conjure and I want to see capitulation.
We haven't seen capitulation yet.
We will see it. When we see it, it will be time to look around for the bottom of this market.
here we go again with the USD-JPY
nikkei heading to crash postion
and back to a 93 on the USD-JPY
this story keeps repeating itself, only the dates change, and the outlook just gets worse
Jap 10 yr yields at 1.4
Tiberius -- exactly
mp, please elaborate as much as you want. I took Conjure's feelings last night as advice today and had double-plus fun!
I, myself, moved some money out of BofA when I heard that they were going to buy Merril Lynch. That was at the time when the IBs were salivating over having access to ordinary banks' deposits.
So Ecuador disputes the fees charged, and most importantly the interest rates (LIBOR prime spread, FF rates, etc)
There are far fetched parts to it, but I won't dispute that previous high cost deals were signed even if the kickbacks (bribes) were not all tracked down
It's a whose who of banks. There is not much money at stake, Ecuador is just choosing to not repay a part of their debt they attribute to excessive interest charges because they can as debt to GDP is 25% and fairly low across all sectors.
Italy, Britain, France, Japan, The EU have the most at stake. Spain, canada, and some others are in there too
Thanks mp and conjure. I agree, I guess I'll defer to CSC's version of "capitulation" and wait for Maria to bare all...
why the obsession with capitulation
bears often end with just a whimper
when everyone loses interest ( my guess is about 3-5 years of flat trading to the downside) then we get our bottom
we are a long way off
realize that the bottom in 2003 was just an intermediate one in this motherlode of a secular bear market
Where is the puck going and where should one be waiting?
FYI: Despite his unimpressive stature, strength, and speed, Gretzky's intelligence and reading of the game were unrivaled. He was adept at dodging checks from opposing players, and he could consistently anticipate where the puck was going to be and execute the right move at the right time. Gretzky also became known for setting up behind the net, an area that was nicknamed "Gretzky's office" because of his skills there.
Conjure and I stated here last night that the shit would hit the fan today, but it was too orderly.
As I said, there is no capitulation, no irrational selling, not enough fear.
Although we expect the market to drop further, we're not predicting at this point because we're off the charts.
Having said that, another 10% would surprise us in the slightest, even more if panic sets in.
"and wait for Maria to bare all..."
Hearing Conjure's mood last night, I programmed the TIVO to get Closing Bell 3:45 - 4:00.
Maria was not there! I felt empty somehow.
The bottom will occur when everyone stops looking for it.
Oh come on, the majority of 'criminal'
activity that led to our present plight was low level stuff like falsifying loan applications and appraisals.
Wall St, the ratings agencies, etc were guilty of poor judgement unless you believe it was the intent of the CEO's of the big banks to ruin their institutions. Then again is Barack Obama and Eric Holder going to indict SStan O'Neil for example.
TMA defautls on mortgage pmt:
The Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter News Pick-ups: Update: Thornburg Mortgage Defaults on $12.2 million Interest Payment
CR.... I'm lookinat the bond market. Somethin' tellin me the FED has a green light to print. Thoughts anyone?
"The bottom will occur when everyone stops looking for it."
Sorry, but the bottom will begin to form when everyone is agreed that there is no bottom.
Mark my words, panic will set in. Everyone is going to look into the abyss, and what they see is going to terrify almost all of them.
Busy Treasury secretary still has time for Reagan
Forbes.com File Not Found
Critics said the trip was ill-timed given the financial crisis and economic slowdown that are roiling global markets. They also pointed out that Paulson's recent actions - nationalizing the banking system and beginning to overhaul financial regulation - are out of step with Reagan's legacy of small government and deregulation.
mp, your scaring the children.
posted at the end of an earlier thread:
Anonymous writes:
One question, why should the bond holders be made whole when the stockholders, employees and the govt take the hit either in incurring stock losses, tax receipts or bail out costs.
I say, its time to take out the bond holders!!!
Anonymous | 11.20.08 - 6:47 pm | #
Interesting read regarding the leveraged ETFs and counter party risk.
Do the short ETFs also have similar risk? Hmmm....
I suppose this is why my next move is to open up an options account.
mp(Excellent) writes:
Conjure and I stated here last night that the shit would hit the fan today, but it was too orderly.
As I said, there is no capitulation, no irrational selling, not enough fear.
I think tomorrow is a big question mark.
Are there enough knife catchers for a +300 day or not?
If there aren't, it'll be a heck of a ride down.
So, how are they going to spend the remaining $600B?
Also, this doesn't tell me much. What was the $25B to Wells Fargo? Did we purchase toxic assets with it? If so, did we get the vaunted stock warrants in return? If we didn't purchase the proverbial toxic assets, what is Wells Fargo doing with the $25B?
Inquiring minds want to know.
What if you never stop looking for the bottom? Does it never occur? Quantum markets?
"mp, your scaring the children."
Make no mistake, there are still a lot of institutional holdings out there. What's happening on the long bond proves that. They're still playing games.
The system must be flushed out.
A moment of silence for those in the penalty box:
Treasury Market Practices Group Endorses Several Measures to
Address Widespread Settlement Fails
November 12, 2008
http://www.ny.frb.org/tmpg/PR081112.pdf
Special collateral repo rates cannot exceed the Treasury general collateral repo rate. As a
result, settlement fails across a variety of CUSIPS can similarly become widespread and persistent when the Treasury general collateral repo rate is near zero as is currently the case.
The underlying problem is the Treasury market contracting convention that a seller can deliver securities after the originally scheduled
settlement date at an unchanged invoice price, i.e., without incurring any penalty. Introduction of a dynamic fails penalty with a finite cap
rate would remedy this problem.
Where's Counterpointer?
Assume $10,000,000.00 in cd's all set to expire in one week.
Name the top 3 things you would do with that money. (expecting 40% funny, 60% practical)
The fact that the monetary base is growing at 875% annually is freaking me out right now. How does this end well?
Somebody please tell me this is all going to end well...
mp:
I think the days of merely looking into the abyss have past. I've always had a problem with that "looking" part anyway. Looking ain't dick. A man's soul is measured when he falls into the fucker.
"Are there enough knife catchers for a +300 day or not?"
If this thing goes the way the macro world is headed, the knife catchers are going to be flushed out for at least a generation.
We're going to return to real investing.
Assuming, of course, there's something left to invest in.
"Reagan's legacy of small government and deregulation."
I don't think that small government is part of Reagan's legacy. Look at the deficits he ran (large for his time).
Cheney said something to the effect, "Reagan taught us that deficits don't matter." So, the current adminstration has pursued that policy. I would only add that deficits don't matter while you can afford to service the debt.
Thanksgiving- Ambrosia, apple sour cream corn bread stuffing, dark meat turkey, pumpkin pie, a white russian, a get together with the family...
watch football, some cheerleaders..
a great time to sit down and create a plan of action in case what everyone says above is going to happen...
maybe I'll bring some early presents..
mossberg, smith and wesson etc
"If this blog(or the internet for that matter) is still here in 24 months, I bet the topics in the comment section will be about hunting, fishing, scavenging, proper killing and cleaning of wild game(or not so wild in the case of dogs and cats), water purification, self defense, locations of "survivor cities", bartering, and who trades for gold. better have your own piece of wilderness...
Sam Dimond | 11.20.08 - 7:06 pm | #"
I think this is a little over-blown, Just because the greatest Ponzi scheme in history fell over does not mean it is the end of civilization.
Markets will adjust and survive. Stocks will go back to being worth what they pay in dividends rather than some dubious earnings number. The banks will loan to those who can convincingly document their ability to pay it back. The well run foreign automakers will hire workers in states that preclude unions. Housing and the components used to build them will fall to an affordable level and people will buy them.
The faster we get to these levels the sooner it will be over. Paulson's efforts to re-inflate the bubble only delayed the inevitable and draw out the pain.
After careful thought - Canada should step up and buy GM.
Re: Introduction of a dynamic fails penalty with a finite cap
rate would remedy this problem.
It's time to consider the possibility of a major sell-off.
LOL!
In a majorly non-LOL way, of course.
Uncle Billy,
Get it all in 5 dollar bills. Load it on to c 130's and drop it all over the populated parts of the country. Make sure it's a high altitude so you get an even spread. Take a while to find them all so it has a lasting effect.
Actually, we want to buy two states as well.
TBT is the inverse 20-year treasury. So what you are "betting on" is that the 20-year bond collapses and no one wants to buy any more 20-year USTs.
I'm talking out my rear, but that's what I understand. Now, the risk here is that the USG will force its citizens to buy bonds.
YLSP | 11.20.08 - 7:09 pm | #
Slight clarification. TBT is the ultra short fund that is supposed to return 2x the inverse of the daily Lehman 20yr Treasury index return. This sucker is levered hence the 10% loss today.
Any of these ultra's are highly path dependent - daily returns are compounded. Understand what you are trading before you do so...
mp(Excellent) writes:
If this thing goes the way the macro world is headed, the knife catchers are going to be flushed out for at least a generation.
Oh no question, mp. I know where things are headed.
I'm just curious about tomorrow.
OMFG...
The Entropy Put.
CC
PS just mortified I couldn't join the Somali pirates riff from work today. ROTFLMFAO.
I miss Jas.
Blackhalo,
The monetary base is expanding at an annualized rate of 875%!
Mike in Long Island,
Thanks for the ETF/tax link over the weekend. Now I don't think I have to worry about the cap gains anyway.
I bet this link
has been posted and reposted numerous times but I didn't see it.
Most institutional investors and pension funds are barred from owning stocks below $5. So if Citigroup's stock remains below that level, it could trigger a wave of selling that would send the share price even lower. "That's the danger of crossing that $5 threshold," says Owen Malcolm, senior vice president of Sanders Financial Management in Atlanta. "They're (Citigroup) already in trouble. It could get worse."
What does he mean could. It will buddy.
Citi was another member of the YLSP-inheritance-fund. I was able to get out $9.5. I'm guessing the fall into 10k should've taken out anyone over 50; the fall into 8k should've taken out anyone over 40. Perhaps the fall into 7k gets everyone over 30 out of the stock market. It's not over until no one wants to own a company... and again, why would someone want to own a company levered up 10:1 with debt? Wait, these companies aren't in debt?
BTW, someone asked whether this information is what Bloomberg was suing for. No; that information was the junk that the Federal Reserve took as collateral for playing in the discount window. Or maybe I'm getting their programs mixed up. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong.
Blackhalo(Excellent) writes:
I think this is a little over-blown, Just because the greatest Ponzi scheme in history fell over does not mean it is the end of civilization.
I think people just have a very stylized image of the end of civilization.
Think more like the Congolese civil war.
"I'm just curious about tomorrow."
You might ask Conjure about midnight eastern time.
Vermont is not for sale!
My prediction? One word: Capitulation.
Here's when the bottom will be in. If you bring up stock investment at your thanksgiving table, and instead of talking about "when the bottom is" or "what a buying opportunity this is," your semi-clueless uncle/inlaw (you know who!, everyone has one) stares at you with dull, distant eyes, remembers, with pain, what happened to his retirement portfolio, and says, "who the hell would invest in stocks? Are you crazy? What is this, the 90's?" When the average, clueless idiot who knows nothing about markets or financing has given up hope, when the common lore is that investing in stocks is for sophisticated people and nice stable bonds and savings accounts are the best retirement savings, when people start scrutinizing their budgets and purchases and forego useless plastic dreck for real value, when fad merges with frugality, when the rich are frightened and ashamed of conspicuous displays of wealth, when empty stripmalls line the streets, bankrupting their owners and local municipalities with failed tax sales and vagrancy patrol costs, when wildfires burn through the vast expanses of empty houses in the inland empire, when you've got to know your neighbor, because neighbors have to help neighbors get by, when grandma moves back in, when it isn't the "other guy" who lost his job and needs and supports the kind of social programs necessary to form a floor in an economic system which relies upon built-in unemployment for job-placement efficiency, when the American Joe has it so hard, has been hit, lied to, bamboozled, and screwed over so many times that he can't afford to be a useless idiot anymore... that is the bottom. No sooner.
We're going to have to actually hurt before this can turn around; no quick fixes like the last couple of hiccups. There is going to need to be a sea-change, a consumer revolution, for things to start shaping up again.
Hey Counterpointer! Was lookin for ya. =)
Kona writes:
Where is the puck going and where should one be waiting?
Dow 1700
Gold 5,000
USD .17
UB,
Not much use putting cash here:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2008/NCR_20081117_1.pdf
mp: I'll take the bait. What does Conjure have to say about 12 EST?
"There is going to need to be a sea-change, a consumer revolution, for things to start shaping up again."
Quite possibly.
mp: Conjure works the 'graveyard' shift ?
"One question, why should the bond holders be made whole when the stockholders, employees and the govt take the hit either in incurring stock losses, tax receipts or bail out costs."
Because the first time you do it, your next T-Bill auction goes to 10% Because the Non T-Bills are paying 15%
Then mortgage rates go to 20% and that does not help homeowners with variable rate loans or cc-debt at all.
"mp: I'll take the bait. What does Conjure have to say about 12 EST?"
There's no bait to take. Around midnight, Conjure usually gives me a heads up on the action.
The action here never stops.
"There is going to need to be a sea-change, a consumer revolution, for things to start shaping up again."
Only if we get our next stimulus checks.
Cheney dead yet?
Mike in Long Island,
Yeah I forgot to mention Ultra. I'm learning, I'm learning.
To be honest making money off of these levere'd short ETFs make me feel like one of the idiot flippers who made money in the beginning of the boom period.
When everyone and their mom is getting into shorts... well... time to not trade them anymore.
When everyone and their mom is getting into shorts... well... time to not trade them anymore.
Invest no, trade yes
Nobody cares about what's happening yet. I don't think it's hit the average person.
Every other message board I go to spouting doom and gloom, I get ignored, sometimes argued with.
Sports sites, entertainment sites, etc. Everyone is just living their lives as if everything is hunky dory.
Guys like Schiff & Roubini are still looked at as doom & gloomers.
I don't think the average person will realize what's coming, until it completely collapses.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2008/11/20/pentagon-cyber-siege-unprecedented-attack/
The Pentagon has suffered from a cyber attack so alarming that it has taken the unprecedented step of banning the use of external hardware devices, such as flash drives and DVD's, FOX News has learned.
The attack came in the form of a global virus or worm that is spreading rapidly throughout a number of military networks.
"We have detected a global virus for which there has been alerts, and we have seen some of this on our networks," a Pentagon official told FOX News. "We are now taking steps to mitigate the virus."
The official could not reveal the source of the attack because that information remains classified.
Military computers are often referred to as part of the Global Information Grid, or GIG, a system composed of 17 million computers, many of which house classified or sensitive information.
FOX News obtained a copy of one memo sent out last week to an Army division within the Pentagon warning of the cyber attack.
"Due to the presence of commercial malware, CDR USSTRATCOM has banned the use of removable media (thumb drives, CDRs/DVDRs, floppy disks) on all DoD networks and computers effective immediately."
YLSP, too bad you didn't double that sell of C at 9.50. You could be a new bank and get under the tarp where it's warm and cozy
Crap! My name still not there.
I for one am giving a high five to the Congress today, especially the democrats, for doing the right thing. Taking some time to think and to review a (hopefully) detailed plan by the auto makers is much better than just getting bullied into passing some crazy plan (see TARP). While they may have had sinister reasons, or they may cave when some dumb plan is presented later we will see, but for tonight, good job.
Breakout 1982;
I am with you. You will never get a bottom with half of market players looking to not miss the next up move.
We're going to have to change "It was the best of times,It was the worst of times" soon to "It was the worst of times"!
Tiberius,
Great! Skynet picks now to take over?
Invest no, trade yes
Anonymous
You know I had that same thought. I caught the end of the dot.com bubble, it wasn't pretty. I figure I'm the contra indicator if you will. Mind you I only dabble, mostly morbid curiosity that I follow the markets anymore. When I'm thinking about shorting, it's probably time to get back in...Kinda like that video of the trader who made of show of his ability to be wrong all the time...it was pretty funny.
Re: the collapse of civilisation.
It might happen and may already have begun but, as Pavel points out, the means of maintaining social order in modern states are formidable.
OTOH less organized societies, Byzantine Ruins noted, are frail and can fall apart quite easily. His example of the Congo is apt.
When we start seeing failed states outside of Africa, in Latin America for example ( Mexico isn't looking too cohesive lately) then the rot could be heading our way.
"They tried to pull the plug"
"Skynet fights back"
Uh Oh.
"Due to the presence of commercial malware, CDR USSTRATCOM has banned the use of removable media (thumb drives, CDRs/DVDRs, floppy disks) on all DoD networks and computers effective immediately."
In secure installations, those things were banned years ago, and the USB ports were disconnected or plugged on all COTS machines.
Vermont is not for sale!
Yes it is. But we want payment in cows and pot.
Ha Peak, I knew it...BTW I was raised in MA but started school in Chester VA, beautiful country there.
Where can I get a pike?
"Re: the collapse of civilisation."
Although the comment wasn't directed at me, please note that I'm not talking about "the collapse of civilization."
Only a collapse in demand, possibly minor.
If, of course, it turns out to be a major collapse in demand, then we're talking about the possibility of a commercial collapse.
You need Vermont. This is a friendly take over.
Yes, well, at least when we die we'll get to see the special place in hell they made for Dick Cheney.
That and Michael Savage wrapped in pink suede.
I just saw Rev. John Hagee on the TeeVee, talking about Armageddon. He had a (surprisingly well-drawn) mural of smoke, oil, missiles, soldiers, gold, and four horsemen.
He spat a little bit as he described the End Times. (He was a tad frothy at the mouth.)
This would have been valuable, exceot for the fact that he's been saying the same thing for twenty years. He's the Chris Farley of Televangelists --- he's so excited, he's funny ... but he looks like he's going to have a seizure.
Ah well. The End Times ARE here, and the Reverend is finally right!
CRFaN writes:
Yes, well, at least when we die we'll get to see the special place in hell they made for Dick Cheney
A beautiful throne to the right hand of Sata
PS I was going to add what Conjure looks like but MP already solved that mystery.
I'm feeling a Big rally tommorow.
We'll take MN and OH for a buck. Give them GM and health care. The nutters will be asked to leave, as part of the bargain. Our say of course.
yeah, otherwise there could be a vast horde of cold hungry Michiganders fleeing across the border drooling for a Molson to numb their pain.
canucklehead writes:
After careful thought - Canada should step up and buy GM.
Also, this doesn't tell me much. What was the $25B to Wells Fargo? Did we purchase toxic assets with it? If so, did we get the vaunted stock warrants in return? If we didn't purchase the proverbial toxic assets, what is Wells Fargo doing with the $25B?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Morocco Bama | 11.20.08 - 7:32 pm | #
Moroco, it went to buy preferred stock in WFC. It yields 5% for the first five years, arrents for apx 1/6 of the value of the investment (so in WFC case about $4B). The NPV of the prefered is apx 50% of the value of the preferred Buffet got for his GS preferred a couple of weeks before. The terms of the preferred were the same for all the banks. Doing it in the form of preferred stock made much more sense than buying toxic assets. However, it would have been nice if we actually had someone negotiating on behalf of the gov't/taxpayers. Clearly Hank was not.
Dirk, wasn't that preferred purchased at inflated prices? I seem to remember one of the Congresscritters questioning along those lines and not getting answers?
"Where can I get a pike?"
From producers of gefilte fish.
"Ah well. The End Times ARE here, and the Reverend is finally right!
Hawley Smoot | 11.20.08 - 8:00 pm | #"
I'm long televangelism. Once TV time falls low enough Tilton Baker and Hinn all the time.
I think this is a little over-blown, Just because the greatest Ponzi scheme in history fell over does not mean it is the end of civilization.
...
I think people just have a very stylized image of the end of civilization.
Think more like the Congolese civil war.
... or an atrociously small selection of cheese at Whole Foods!
"I'm feeling a Big rally tommorow."
How low do bond have to go for investors to be willing to take some risk?
If it's true that it's a consumer economy, then the best thing to do is to persuade consumers that they should not be banking with those that crawled under the TARP or ran to the discount window. If that is done, we the people will have succeeded in ending this charade.
Thanks, Dirk. I can finally get some sleep knowing I got something for my money.