I spent too long writing this for it to vanish within 4 minutes in an old thread:
My prediction? One word: Capitulation.
Here's when the bottom will be in. If you bring up stock investment at your thanksgiving table, and instead of talking about "when the bottom is" or "what a buying opportunity this is," your semi-clueless uncle/inlaw (you know who!, everyone has one) stares at you with dull, distant eyes, remembers, with pain, what happened to his retirement portfolio, and says, "who the hell would invest in stocks? Are you crazy? What is this, the 90's?" When the average, clueless idiot who knows nothing about markets or financing has given up hope, when the common lore is that investing in stocks is for sophisticated people and nice stable bonds and savings accounts are the best retirement savings, when people start scrutinizing their budgets and purchases and forego useless plastic dreck for real value, when fad merges with frugality, when the rich are frightened and ashamed of conspicuous displays of wealth, when empty stripmalls line the streets, bankrupting their owners and local municipalities with failed tax sales and vagrancy patrol costs, when wildfires burn through the vast expanses of empty houses in the inland empire, when you've got to know your neighbor, because neighbors have to help neighbors get by, when grandma moves back in, when it isn't the "other guy" who lost his job and needs and supports the kind of social programs necessary to form a floor in an economic system which relies upon built-in unemployment for job-placement efficiency, when the American Joe has it so hard, has been hit, lied to, bamboozled, and screwed over so many times that he can't afford to be a useless idiot anymore... that is the bottom. No sooner.
We're going to have to actually hurt before this can turn around; no quick fixes like the last couple of hiccups. There is going to need to be a sea-change, a consumer revolution, for things to start shaping up again.
"There have been stunning and dramatic moves in the market since wrote my earlier piece. The Long Bond is trading at a yield of 3.43 percent and the dollar price has exploded 9 points today. I have done this for nearly 30 years. I have never witnessed this before. Even more incredible is the 30 year swap spread and swap rate. The 30 year swap rate is 2.84. It has dropped about 80 basis points on the day and is about 60 basis points rich to the 30 year Treasury."
Actually, the crash of 1937-1938 was worse--a loss of 54.5% from peak to trough. That line really should be included on the graph for the sake of completeness.
Chartology: When Will The Selling End? - CNBC
FTA and video link above: if you look at the chart below you see a massive double top with a critical 10 year support at 2002, she says. And we're breaking that support.In other words, not only has the S&P fallen below its 2002 lows, but it will likely continue lower from there.
Sound far-fetched? Maybe but Yamada is one of the most celebrated technicians on the Street, winning the award for best chart analyst 4 years in a row from 2001 to 2004.
She has a 600 target on the S&P 500 and a 6,000 target for the Dow. That's where she thinks we're heading.
Maybe we need an alternative to the D word too. People still try to avoid it, probably for superstitious reasons. For sportsfans -- maybe the "Great Slump"? Or how bout naming it like hurricanes... Broomhilda... Gwendolyn...
Just remember that the world population is 3 times larger today than in the 30s.
The US population has roughly doubled.
Lots of new mouths to feed, should the completely unexpected...hoochodnode severe recession...decide to hit ludicrous speed straight into the Greater Depression.
Sans Pony writes:
Just remember that the world population is 3 times larger today than in the 30s.
And thanks to the intertubes news, info and TRUTH travels much quicker. Thanks to CR and others not to mention the many smart independent thinking posters, At least we have more insight as to what's really happening.
Consider plotting these data on a log scale. The GD will look a whole lot worse, and if GD2(?) were to follow it would paint an even bleaker picture for the future.
Excellent piece today in Financial Armageddon about an older financial panic more similar to this current one than the one of 1929. Intriguing parallels. Financial Armageddon
"The four states are estimated to have amassed close to 1.5 trillion dollars in surplus in the past six years due to high oil prices that rocketed above 147 dollars in July before sliding to just above 50 dollars."
20:00 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP INC WEIGHS AUCTIONING PARTS OF BANK OR SELLING BANK OUTRIGHT - WSJ
20:05 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS ABOUT AUCTION PROCESS OR SALE ARE AT PRELIMINARY STAGE - WSJ
20:06 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP BOARD TO MEET FRIDAY TO DISCUSS OPTIONS - WSJ, CITING PEOPLE FAMILIAR
20:06 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP TOP EXECUTIVES IN MEETINGS THURSDAY TO MULL STABILIZATION STRATEGY - WSJ
20:07 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP CEO PANDIT AND OTHER EXECUTIVES TELLING COLLEAGUES THEY ARE FRUSTRATED AND BEFUDDLED BY BANK'S 50 PCT STOCK SLIDE THIS WEEK - WSJ
20:08 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP MAY SELL SMITH BARNEY RETAIL BROKERAGE, CREDIT CARD UNIT, OR TRANSACTION SERVICES UNIT, BUT CEO PANDIT DOESN'T WANT TO PURSUE THAT APPROACH - WSJ, CITING PEOPLE FAMILIAR
20:10 21Nov08 RTRS-MORGAN STANLEY IS NOT WEIGHING A BID AND HAS NOT SPOKEN TO CITIGROUP ABOUT A DEAL RECENTLY - WSJ, CITING PEOPLE FAMILIAR
20:12 21Nov08 RTRS-BRIEF-Citigroup weighs selling some or all of bank - WSJ
Nov 20 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc : * weighs auctioning parts of bank or selling bank outright - WSJ * internal discussions about auction process or sale are at preliminary stage - WSJ * board to meet Friday to discuss options - WSJ, citing people familiar * top executives in meetings Thursday to mull stabilization strategy - WSJ * CEO Pandit and other executives telling colleagues they are frustrated and befuddled by bank's 50 percent stock slide this week - WSJ * may sell Smith Barney retail brokerage, credit card unit, or transaction services unit, but CEO pandit doesn't want to pursue that approach - WSJ, citing people familiar * Morgan Stanley is not weighing a bid and has not spoken to Citigroup about a deal recently - WSJ, citing people familiar
20:27 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP INC , RESPONDING TO REPORT IT MAY SEEK MERGER, REPEATS IT HAS VERY STRONG CAPITAL AND LIQUIDITY, AND IS FOCUSED ON EXECUTING STRATEGY TO GENERATE BENEFITS OVER TIME
You know it's funny, I've been reading this for 2 years now and I've always been impressed by the level of analysis, but I also was always worried you all were a bunch of tinfoil hat loonies. Well, you were right. You were all friggin right.
It has always fascinated me how someone can sell something they don't own....and how when TSHTF people think that removing what's left of the bottom of their stock price via short-sale bans is a good idea.
Two wongs don't make a white. Never has and never will.
"If financial stocks were reaching irrationally high levels, the group would seek measures to rein them in, Talbott said. "We want markets to operate efficiently," he added."
If they wanted efficient pricing of their stock, they would disclose their level 3 assets.
"the last outcry...
Vikkie | 11.20.08 - 8:33 pm | #"
I do not think that ends well. It would sure be nice if government would be less about preventing unavoidable disaster and more focused on enabling recovery.
A little less old school capitalist (Banks) and a little more new era venture capitalist. It seems to me like we took a bit of a wrong turn down a dead end with the Republican revolution. Not that I think warmed over socialism is any better. Hopefully Obama will take us in an enlightened new direction.
Washington requesting assistance from the Gulf States
(21/11/2008)
Kuwait - a. P. B
The newspaper "Politics" Kuwait yesterday that the United States asked the four Gulf states, "financial assistance" worth 290 billion dollars to address the effects of the global financial crisis.
The newspaper quoted "highly informed sources" as saying that Washington had asked Saudi Arabia to 120 billion and $ 70 billion from the United Arab Emirates and Qatar 60 billion and 40 billion from Kuwait.
The paper did not form the United States wanted to obtain such assistance out of the crisis, the collapse of the financial system and face the specter of "Great Depression", which hangs on the economy.
Thanks for the Yamada link (she is great indeed and very objective)
that we are ultimately going lower is a "no brainer" and indeed has been for a long time
it seems indeed that the list of "sticky levels" is growing on the downside
- 880-950: we just droped from this zone
- 750-800 (minor)
- 600-680
- 440-480
Anyone else think the DJI is getting more distorted every week? Since it weights based on share price, the single-digit-midgets of AA, GM, and now C have managed to a) make the DJI essentially a 27 stock index instead of 30 and b) bumped on the exposure to oil via CVX/XOM to 14.34% by today's closing prices.
So as energy continues to get clobbered, DJI will get hit even harder because of the proportionately heavy reliance. You can actually get 50% of the Dow exposure through 8 of the 30 stocks. Not exactly even weighting.
At least we have now proven that Adam Smith's book should have more accurately been named "The Impoverishment of Nations." If you have a chance, Wiki Adam Smith. The biography there is rather shocking. He was quite the nut case.It seems that Greenspan's hero not only believed in an "invisible hand", but also had "invisible friends" that he carried on conversations with. Our economy has been based upon the ramblings of a person who, had he been born in our era, would have been considered to be psychotic.
The US has asked four oil-rich Gulf states for close to US$300 billion to help it curb the global financial meltdown, Kuwaits daily Al-Seyassah has reported.
(AFP/File/Hassan Ammar)
KUWAIT CITY (AFP) - The United States has asked four oil-rich Gulf states for close to 300 billion dollars to help it curb the global financial meltdown, Kuwaits daily Al-Seyassah reported Thursday.
Quoting highly informed sources, the daily said Washington has asked Saudi Arabia for 120 billion dollars, the United Arab Emirates for 70 billion dollars, Qatar for 60 billion dollars and was seeking 40 billion dollars from Kuwait.
Al-Seyassah said Washington sought the amount as financial aid to face the fallout of the financial crisis and help prevent its economy from sliding into a painful recession.
The daily said the United States plans to use the funds to help the ailing automobile industry , banks and other companies suffering from the global financial turmoil.
The four nations, all members of OPEC, produce together 14 million barrels of oil per day, around half of the cartels production and about 17 percent of world supplies.
The four states are estimated to have amassed close to 1.5 trillion dollars in surplus in the past six years due to high oil prices that rocketed above 147 dollars in July before sliding to just above 50 dollars.
The daily also said that the United States has asked Kuwait to forgive its Iraqi debt estimated at around 16 billion dollars.
Sans Pony writes:
The Saudi's should get ride of all those dollars while they are still worth something.
They could exchange them for...say...maybe the entire Bush family and A. Rod.
Naaaahhh...
They will exchange them for gold ! (from the US gold reserves). Hehehe!
Citigroup Inc. \t$ 4.71
C \t-1.69
Short Interest (Shares Short) \t138,025,500
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) \t1.0
Short Percent of Float \t2.70 %
Short Interest - Prior \t116,765,900
Short % Increase / Decrease \t18.21 %
Citi has less then 3% of the stock short and they are crying about short seller ..
Not for many years has a Christmas season begun with so many tidings of spreading discomfort and lack of joy about the U.S. economy. Already racked by a devastating double-digit inflation, the nation is now also plunging deeper into a recession that seems sure to be the longest and could be the most severe since World War II. Consumers who a few weeks ago worried mostly about rising prices now fear for their jobs and incomes as well. For many Americans, the Yuletide will be a time of less elaborate meals, infrequent parties, fewer and cheaper presents.
All last week the bad news mounted. The auto industry reeled from a new-model sales rate 35.8% below last November's already somewhat depressed pace. Ford and Chrysler announced massive new layoffs for this month. Automakers now plan to close at least 14 assembly plants and put as many as 230,000 production workers, clerks, accountants and executives out of work before Christmas, and about 20% of General Motors' 500,000 U.S. employees will be idle in January.
But the decline is no longer confined to autos and home building, which is down 33% from early 1973, as it has been for most of this year. In classic fashion, the recession* has begun to work its way through the entire economy. Although demand for home freezers is still high, with housewives stocking up on food to beat rising prices, sales of other major appliancesTV sets, washing machines, dryers, vacuum cleanersare turning sick, and layoffs are spreading in the plants that make them.
PeakCredit - C, like GM, can do very little damage to DJI at this point. It's a share price weighted index so it can fall 25% like today and only shave 15 points off the Dow.
blackhalo - I said as much a couple of weeks ago about Prudent Bear being the Lorax of securitization. Which is not quite right becos the Lorax was always in favor of conservation. Maybe Prudent Bear is the Onceler? Exploit, repent, publish...
From the incomparable story's denouement:
"At that very moment we heard a loud whack!
From outside in the fields came a sickening smack
of an ax on a tree. Then we heard the tree fall.
The very last Truffulla Tree of them all!!
And the last lines:
"But Now", says the Onceler.
"Now that you're here
the word of the Lorax seems perfectly clear.
UNLESS someone like you
cares a whole awful lot,
nothing is going to get better.
It's not."
.
Sans Pony writes: The Saudi's should get rid of all those dollars while they are still worth something.
They could exchange them for...say...maybe the entire Bush family
C'mon folks, don't be such nattering naybobs of negativity. This will be the bestest depression ever. Lots and lots of useless eaters are gong to die and Gaia will get a chance to heal Herself and all the useful eaters that are left will live in peace and harmony forever and ever.
"I seriously doubt you even ever read Wealth of Nations. Go back to Daily Kos.
Currently Accounting | 11.20.08 - 9:06 pm | # "
I agree. WON is a pretty smart read, assessable and revolutionary in it's day. To dismiss a great work because an adherent has failed to correctly implement it's teachings is foolishness.
I haven't read The Wealth of Nations, but my understanding is that almost everyone who cites it nowadays hasn't either.
To really understand the thing, you need to be quite concerned about a lot of philosophical issues of the day which are now meaningless to most people. I once was given a summary of what it was really about by a Ph.D. in the history of philosophy, and it bore little resemblance to the "Invisible Hand says 'Capitalism Rules', OK?" summary version.
@ Mr. Sparkle.: Of course...I meant the effect on market psychology of C putting their household junk out on a table to raise some cash over the weekend. Looks terrible. Wonder if they got a permit?
Actually the market drop is not the 'worst since the Great Depression'. It is the worst ever. Period. Look at the chart: Even from 1929 highs it took 30 days longer to get to -51% than it has in our current decline since 2007.
Excellent piece today in Financial Armageddon about an older financial panic more similar to this current one than the one of 1929. Intriguing parallels. Financial Armageddon
Jes | 11.20.08 - 8:21 pm | #
Jes, thank you for that link, very interesting parallels indeed, history does not repeat, it rhymes, and it sure seems like this situation and the panic of 1873 are both limricks.
I was in SRS for just a bit today, my first time riding it. I got out too early at 3:30, I was afraid of some PPT-esque move. Ah well! Still an excellent day.
It is the worst decline ever...forget 1929. The "jump you fuckers" sign is so appropriate. These greedy fucks have lined their pockets with so much money and politicians that they are virtually untouchable. The only way to stop this madness is to revolt against the power structure, but this will never happen unless people start going without food while these fucks fly around in their jets that should be shot down. Keep letting in more illegals, H-1B's, and Muslim refugees and sending $48 billion to Africa for AIDS and outsourcing American jobs to China and letting drug companies monopolize your health care. This country is so insane. A fuck you in advance to Bzy and lawyerrat and the rest of the fascists.
I concur with DK - we broke through the 1929 trend line which means this is no longer the greatest since 1929 - it means it's a worse market start to present then it was then at the same point. That should open some eyes! and that's why a .03 yielding treasury is where I'm at.
Like a broken record today, sheesh!
Where is everyone?
o way
Leftovers again?
I spent too long writing this for it to vanish within 4 minutes in an old thread:
My prediction? One word: Capitulation.
Here's when the bottom will be in. If you bring up stock investment at your thanksgiving table, and instead of talking about "when the bottom is" or "what a buying opportunity this is," your semi-clueless uncle/inlaw (you know who!, everyone has one) stares at you with dull, distant eyes, remembers, with pain, what happened to his retirement portfolio, and says, "who the hell would invest in stocks? Are you crazy? What is this, the 90's?" When the average, clueless idiot who knows nothing about markets or financing has given up hope, when the common lore is that investing in stocks is for sophisticated people and nice stable bonds and savings accounts are the best retirement savings, when people start scrutinizing their budgets and purchases and forego useless plastic dreck for real value, when fad merges with frugality, when the rich are frightened and ashamed of conspicuous displays of wealth, when empty stripmalls line the streets, bankrupting their owners and local municipalities with failed tax sales and vagrancy patrol costs, when wildfires burn through the vast expanses of empty houses in the inland empire, when you've got to know your neighbor, because neighbors have to help neighbors get by, when grandma moves back in, when it isn't the "other guy" who lost his job and needs and supports the kind of social programs necessary to form a floor in an economic system which relies upon built-in unemployment for job-placement efficiency, when the American Joe has it so hard, has been hit, lied to, bamboozled, and screwed over so many times that he can't afford to be a useless idiot anymore... that is the bottom. No sooner.
We're going to have to actually hurt before this can turn around; no quick fixes like the last couple of hiccups. There is going to need to be a sea-change, a consumer revolution, for things to start shaping up again.
Seriously, though, were there any bottom callers on CBNC today?
Because when they stop, then I'll know we've hit bottom.
That gray line in the chart is Haloscan's performance.
So if GMAC becomes a bank, could they have $25,000,000,000.00?
Er, I meant "CNBC". Not "Chemical Nuclear Biological" whatever.
Although I just now noticed the similarity in acronyms. The puns just write themselves.
Prozac in the water supply, stat! (It's fun to say stat, but I'd better stop, stat).
This business with the Long Bond is also pretty scary:
Across the Curve » Blog Archive » Part Two
"There have been stunning and dramatic moves in the market since wrote my earlier piece. The Long Bond is trading at a yield of 3.43 percent and the dollar price has exploded 9 points today. I have done this for nearly 30 years. I have never witnessed this before. Even more incredible is the 30 year swap spread and swap rate. The 30 year swap rate is 2.84. It has dropped about 80 basis points on the day and is about 60 basis points rich to the 30 year Treasury."
Hoopajoopa,
That speech needs a fiery speaker.
"Er, I meant "CNBC". Not "Chemical Nuclear Biological" whatever."
Chemical Nuclear Biological Contamination
For $1 trillion, what is on the signs posted around the Great Money Pit?
"Prozac in the water supply, stat!"
Next, Viagra in the Money Supply.
The bottom is below 3000. Before the year is over, we'll have a 1000-point drop week.
And they had Peter Schiff on "Fast Money" today! Go Peter!
And they had Peter Schiff on "Fast Money" today! Go Peter!
Hawley Smoot
Schiff gets 5 minutes of argument from the panel.
Kudlow & Cramer have their own shows.
When the situation is reversed, justice will be served.
Doubt we'll ever see that day though.
Actually, the crash of 1937-1938 was worse--a loss of 54.5% from peak to trough. That line really should be included on the graph for the sake of completeness.
Dow chart - Depression vs Today
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pGy0BQU1PZ9AYrZgFwaFWHQ&oid=9&output=image
"The current stock market decline is the worst since the Great Depression."
And yet you still maintain that there won't be a Depression? In some ways I hope you're right CR, but I don't see how we avoid it.
I think there are about 50 Nemos posting here.
Chartology: When Will The Selling End? - CNBC
FTA and video link above:
if you look at the chart below you see a massive double top with a critical 10 year support at 2002, she says. And we're breaking that support.In other words, not only has the S&P fallen below its 2002 lows, but it will likely continue lower from there.
Sound far-fetched? Maybe but Yamada is one of the most celebrated technicians on the Street, winning the award for best chart analyst 4 years in a row from 2001 to 2004.
She has a 600 target on the S&P 500 and a 6,000 target for the Dow. That's where she thinks we're heading.
i take it that there was no ppt during the gd1.
My 4 year old daughter thinks the Fours Bears looks like as dinosaur! I'd have to agree.
We are watching the Great Depression becoming marginalized to a case of mild PMS.
sans pony
there is no such thing
"Doubt we'll ever see that day though.
Comrade Scared Shitless | 11.20.08 - 7:55 pm | # "
Give a few more -400pt days and Schiff and Taleb can just buy GE.
Well - that new "Linens and Things" ad is the chirpiest going out of business promo I have ever seen.
It makes bankruptcy liquidation seem like such a sexy, fun time.
As our dear Sebastian might have said: 'this is the most telegraphed depression in history"
Little blue pill for the big blue country!
Maybe we need an alternative to the D word too. People still try to avoid it, probably for superstitious reasons. For sportsfans -- maybe the "Great Slump"? Or how bout naming it like hurricanes... Broomhilda... Gwendolyn...
Just remember that the world population is 3 times larger today than in the 30s.
The US population has roughly doubled.
Lots of new mouths to feed, should the completely unexpected...hoochodnode severe recession...decide to hit ludicrous speed straight into the Greater Depression.
After we're through with 2009-2019 they will be calling the 1930's the Petite Depression.
WOW!! Has no one else mentioned this yet?? US is asking gulf states for 300 Billion !! Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Let's start talking about "survivor cities".
Butte or Helena?
Sans Pony writes:
Just remember that the world population is 3 times larger today than in the 30s.
And thanks to the intertubes news, info and TRUTH travels much quicker. Thanks to CR and others not to mention the many smart independent thinking posters, At least we have more insight as to what's really happening.
Maybe Grosse Pointe?
mykillk writes: WOW!! Has no one else mentioned this yet?? US is asking gulf states for 300 Billion !!
...
A Christmas Gift?
CR---
Consider plotting these data on a log scale. The GD will look a whole lot worse, and if GD2(?) were to follow it would paint an even bleaker picture for the future.
Yancey Ward --
I am LEGION!
Excellent piece today in Financial Armageddon about an older financial panic more similar to this current one than the one of 1929. Intriguing parallels.
Financial Armageddon
Re: US is asking gulf states for 300 Billion
Can we have back our money that we paid for your $100+ oil a few months ago? Honest mistake on both sides, no harm intended.
And no, your money cannot buy Haliburton or Boeing. You can buy, however, Blackwater.
"The four states are estimated to have amassed close to 1.5 trillion dollars in surplus in the past six years due to high oil prices that rocketed above 147 dollars in July before sliding to just above 50 dollars."
Sheeesh...my card only gives a 5% rebate.
20:00 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP INC WEIGHS AUCTIONING PARTS OF BANK OR SELLING BANK OUTRIGHT - WSJ
20:05 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP INTERNAL DISCUSSIONS ABOUT AUCTION PROCESS OR SALE ARE AT PRELIMINARY STAGE - WSJ
20:06 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP BOARD TO MEET FRIDAY TO DISCUSS OPTIONS - WSJ, CITING PEOPLE FAMILIAR
20:06 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP TOP EXECUTIVES IN MEETINGS THURSDAY TO MULL STABILIZATION STRATEGY - WSJ
20:07 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP CEO PANDIT AND OTHER EXECUTIVES TELLING COLLEAGUES THEY ARE FRUSTRATED AND BEFUDDLED BY BANK'S 50 PCT STOCK SLIDE THIS WEEK - WSJ
20:08 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP MAY SELL SMITH BARNEY RETAIL BROKERAGE, CREDIT CARD UNIT, OR TRANSACTION SERVICES UNIT, BUT CEO PANDIT DOESN'T WANT TO PURSUE THAT APPROACH - WSJ, CITING PEOPLE FAMILIAR
20:10 21Nov08 RTRS-MORGAN STANLEY IS NOT WEIGHING A BID AND HAS NOT SPOKEN TO CITIGROUP ABOUT A DEAL RECENTLY - WSJ, CITING PEOPLE FAMILIAR
20:12 21Nov08 RTRS-BRIEF-Citigroup weighs selling some or all of bank - WSJ
Nov 20 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc : * weighs auctioning parts of bank or selling bank outright - WSJ * internal discussions about auction process or sale are at preliminary stage - WSJ * board to meet Friday to discuss options - WSJ, citing people familiar * top executives in meetings Thursday to mull stabilization strategy - WSJ * CEO Pandit and other executives telling colleagues they are frustrated and befuddled by bank's 50 percent stock slide this week - WSJ * may sell Smith Barney retail brokerage, credit card unit, or transaction services unit, but CEO pandit doesn't want to pursue that approach - WSJ, citing people familiar * Morgan Stanley is not weighing a bid and has not spoken to Citigroup about a deal recently - WSJ, citing people familiar
Thread Music.
YouTube - O BROTHER WHERE ART THOU - Constant Sorrow
Great Depression ... Greater Depression ... Greatest Depression. Two to go until we run out of ways to decribe them.
The Saudi's should get ride of all those dollars while they are still worth something.
They could exchange them for...say...maybe the entire Bush family and A. Rod.
Did Doug have the graphs with '74 and '02 through Day 810? It would be interesting to compare what came next in each of those instances.
*ride = rid
Ponies on my mind.
I mean what I say and I've said what I meant it's Manic Depression 100%.
CC
Dam it I want my screen saver...how do I do this?
Thread Music...
YouTube - Rage against the machine - millennium homes
hungry people don't stay hungry for long...
20:27 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP INC , RESPONDING TO REPORT IT MAY SEEK MERGER, REPEATS IT HAS VERY STRONG CAPITAL AND LIQUIDITY, AND IS FOCUSED ON EXECUTING STRATEGY TO GENERATE BENEFITS OVER TIME
the last outcry...
Next, Viagra in the Money Supply.
sm_landlord | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 7:51 pm | #
Well that would be one way to get back to having a hard currency.
I wonder if it's true the we've asked four Gulf states for almost 300 billion. If so, on what terms? Or is it a nothing more than a malicious rumor?
You know it's funny, I've been reading this for 2 years now and I've always been impressed by the level of analysis, but I also was always worried you all were a bunch of tinfoil hat loonies. Well, you were right. You were all friggin right.
Holy KOWABUNGA
"If so, on what terms?"
The article said "foreign aid."
I think we should give them something in return. Maybe protection.
Nikkei down 3%
"I mean what I say and I've said what I meant it's Manic Depression 100%.
CC
Comrade Counterpointer | 11.20.08 - 8:30 pm | #"
Nice! Even better would be a Lorax parody with banks as truffala trees and Paulson as the Lorax.
Pavel: There is still $510 Billion in obligations from the SFP program that will mature between 11/20 and 1/20/09 ... maybe it has to do with that?
20:12 -- SOMALI PIRATES SAY INVERTED HAMMER OF THOR SIGNALS BOTTOM IS IN, DISCUSSIONS ONGOING ABOUT MAJOR CITIBANK INVESTMENT
Citigroup Inc has asked the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to bring back a ban on short-selling financial stocks.
UPDATE 1-Citi presses to bring back short selling ban
| Reuters
Whaaaaaaaa Whaaaaaaaaa Don't let thoese evil short sellers short our insolvent piece of crap bank Whaaaaaaaaaa
Instead of calling it 'The Great Depression 2', let's call it 'The Bottomless Recession.'
lama,
If you're here I left a post for you in the last thread ETF option taxation
It has always fascinated me how someone can sell something they don't own....and how when TSHTF people think that removing what's left of the bottom of their stock price via short-sale bans is a good idea.
Two wongs don't make a white. Never has and never will.
Until that dip-shit Bernanke and his bro Hanky is booted the market has only one way to go. Down!
From the Citi article:
"If financial stocks were reaching irrationally high levels, the group would seek measures to rein them in, Talbott said. "We want markets to operate efficiently," he added."
If they wanted efficient pricing of their stock, they would disclose their level 3 assets.
GD - Goldilocks Depression
GD - Grande Depression
"the last outcry...
Vikkie | 11.20.08 - 8:33 pm | #"
I do not think that ends well. It would sure be nice if government would be less about preventing unavoidable disaster and more focused on enabling recovery.
A little less old school capitalist (Banks) and a little more new era venture capitalist. It seems to me like we took a bit of a wrong turn down a dead end with the Republican revolution. Not that I think warmed over socialism is any better. Hopefully Obama will take us in an enlightened new direction.
This is just a rumor I am starting, but I read that Somali pirates hijacked a tanker full money on its way to New York.
Google Translate
Value of 290 billion dollars
Washington requesting assistance from the Gulf States
(21/11/2008)
Kuwait - a. P. B
The newspaper "Politics" Kuwait yesterday that the United States asked the four Gulf states, "financial assistance" worth 290 billion dollars to address the effects of the global financial crisis.
The newspaper quoted "highly informed sources" as saying that Washington had asked Saudi Arabia to 120 billion and $ 70 billion from the United Arab Emirates and Qatar 60 billion and 40 billion from Kuwait.
The paper did not form the United States wanted to obtain such assistance out of the crisis, the collapse of the financial system and face the specter of "Great Depression", which hangs on the economy.
"If they wanted efficient pricing of their stock, they would disclose their level 3 assets.
Plantagenet | 11.20.08 - 8:42 pm | #"
I'm sure they will do so once the share price gets below that value. To me, since they have not...
Because when they stop, then I'll know we've hit bottom.
Nemo | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 7:47 pm
There probably was a point in the GD when everyone recognized the economy was in trouble and stopped pretending the problem was merely psychological.
Ticker Tape of Doom
Thanks for the Yamada link (she is great indeed and very objective)
that we are ultimately going lower is a "no brainer" and indeed has been for a long time
it seems indeed that the list of "sticky levels" is growing on the downside
- 880-950: we just droped from this zone
- 750-800 (minor)
- 600-680
- 440-480
We're not seeing a market, so much as we're witnessing a reverse auction at this point in time
Anyone else think the DJI is getting more distorted every week? Since it weights based on share price, the single-digit-midgets of AA, GM, and now C have managed to a) make the DJI essentially a 27 stock index instead of 30 and b) bumped on the exposure to oil via CVX/XOM to 14.34% by today's closing prices.
So as energy continues to get clobbered, DJI will get hit even harder because of the proportionately heavy reliance. You can actually get 50% of the Dow exposure through 8 of the 30 stocks. Not exactly even weighting.
I swear, Excel is truly a godsend to OCD people.
At least we have now proven that Adam Smith's book should have more accurately been named "The Impoverishment of Nations." If you have a chance, Wiki Adam Smith. The biography there is rather shocking. He was quite the nut case.It seems that Greenspan's hero not only believed in an "invisible hand", but also had "invisible friends" that he carried on conversations with. Our economy has been based upon the ramblings of a person who, had he been born in our era, would have been considered to be psychotic.
http://www.infiniteunknown.net/2008/11/20/us-seeks-300-billion-from-gulf-states-report/
The US has asked four oil-rich Gulf states for close to US$300 billion to help it curb the global financial meltdown, Kuwaits daily Al-Seyassah has reported.
(AFP/File/Hassan Ammar)
KUWAIT CITY (AFP) - The United States has asked four oil-rich Gulf states for close to 300 billion dollars to help it curb the global financial meltdown, Kuwaits daily Al-Seyassah reported Thursday.
Quoting highly informed sources, the daily said Washington has asked Saudi Arabia for 120 billion dollars, the United Arab Emirates for 70 billion dollars, Qatar for 60 billion dollars and was seeking 40 billion dollars from Kuwait.
Al-Seyassah said Washington sought the amount as financial aid to face the fallout of the financial crisis and help prevent its economy from sliding into a painful recession.
The daily said the United States plans to use the funds to help the ailing automobile industry , banks and other companies suffering from the global financial turmoil.
The four nations, all members of OPEC, produce together 14 million barrels of oil per day, around half of the cartels production and about 17 percent of world supplies.
The four states are estimated to have amassed close to 1.5 trillion dollars in surplus in the past six years due to high oil prices that rocketed above 147 dollars in July before sliding to just above 50 dollars.
The daily also said that the United States has asked Kuwait to forgive its Iraqi debt estimated at around 16 billion dollars.
Thu Nov 20, 2:29 am ET
Source: AFP
Sans Pony writes:
The Saudi's should get ride of all those dollars while they are still worth something.
They could exchange them for...say...maybe the entire Bush family and A. Rod.
Naaaahhh...
They will exchange them for gold ! (from the US gold reserves). Hehehe!
"GD - Grande Depression"
Or the "Venti Depression" if you're a pessimist.
Capitulation(Unrated) writes: GD - Grande Depression
Welcome to the Venti Depression
I do believe Pandit is "befuddled".
I just cannot believe he just confessed that to MarketWatch.
Citigroup Inc. \t$ 4.71
C \t-1.69
Short Interest (Shares Short) \t138,025,500
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) \t1.0
Short Percent of Float \t2.70 %
Short Interest - Prior \t116,765,900
Short % Increase / Decrease \t18.21 %
Citi has less then 3% of the stock short and they are crying about short seller ..
THE RECESSION: Gloomy Holidays--and Worse Ahead - TIME
Gloomy Holidays--and Worse Ahead
Not for many years has a Christmas season begun with so many tidings of spreading discomfort and lack of joy about the U.S. economy. Already racked by a devastating double-digit inflation, the nation is now also plunging deeper into a recession that seems sure to be the longest and could be the most severe since World War II. Consumers who a few weeks ago worried mostly about rising prices now fear for their jobs and incomes as well. For many Americans, the Yuletide will be a time of less elaborate meals, infrequent parties, fewer and cheaper presents.
All last week the bad news mounted. The auto industry reeled from a new-model sales rate 35.8% below last November's already somewhat depressed pace. Ford and Chrysler announced massive new layoffs for this month. Automakers now plan to close at least 14 assembly plants and put as many as 230,000 production workers, clerks, accountants and executives out of work before Christmas, and about 20% of General Motors' 500,000 U.S. employees will be idle in January.
But the decline is no longer confined to autos and home building, which is down 33% from early 1973, as it has been for most of this year. In classic fashion, the recession* has begun to work its way through the entire economy. Although demand for home freezers is still high, with housewives stocking up on food to beat rising prices, sales of other major appliancesTV sets, washing machines, dryers, vacuum cleanersare turning sick, and layoffs are spreading in the plants that make them.
Damn samsin, there but for a minute go I.
Vikkie writes:
20:00 21Nov08 RTRS-CITIGROUP INC WEIGHS AUCTIONING PARTS OF BANK OR SELLING BANK OUTRIGHT - WSJ
Jeeez...it's a financial garage sale, worth what, 500 DJI points?
PeakCredit - C, like GM, can do very little damage to DJI at this point. It's a share price weighted index so it can fall 25% like today and only shave 15 points off the Dow.
blackhalo - I said as much a couple of weeks ago about Prudent Bear being the Lorax of securitization. Which is not quite right becos the Lorax was always in favor of conservation. Maybe Prudent Bear is the Onceler? Exploit, repent, publish...
From the incomparable story's denouement:
"At that very moment we heard a loud whack!
From outside in the fields came a sickening smack
of an ax on a tree. Then we heard the tree fall.
The very last Truffulla Tree of them all!!
And the last lines:
"But Now", says the Onceler.
"Now that you're here
the word of the Lorax seems perfectly clear.
UNLESS someone like you
cares a whole awful lot,
nothing is going to get better.
It's not."
Sheer genius.
CC
I'm settling on "Big Bertha"
McGreat Depression
Granite Countertop Economy
Flip This Economy
.
Sans Pony writes:
The Saudi's should get rid of all those dollars while they are still worth something.
They could exchange them for...say...maybe the entire Bush family
No need - the Saudis already have W locked up.
.
Show Me The Pony writes:
At least we have now proven that Adam Smith's book should have more accurately been named "The Impoverishment of Nations."
I seriously doubt you even ever read Wealth of Nations. Go back to Daily Kos.
"The Great Brain Robbery"?
C'mon folks, don't be such nattering naybobs of negativity. This will be the bestest depression ever. Lots and lots of useless eaters are gong to die and Gaia will get a chance to heal Herself and all the useful eaters that are left will live in peace and harmony forever and ever.
"I seriously doubt you even ever read Wealth of Nations. Go back to Daily Kos.
Currently Accounting | 11.20.08 - 9:06 pm | # "
I agree. WON is a pretty smart read, assessable and revolutionary in it's day. To dismiss a great work because an adherent has failed to correctly implement it's teachings is foolishness.
At least this depression will be televised. The last one could only be seen in silent b&w films months later.
what about "it that shall not be named"
Dickeylee writes:
Leftovers again?
We're in a recession. What did you expect? Steak?
gabyjan: I kinda like that... like "ol' you know what"
I haven't read The Wealth of Nations, but my understanding is that almost everyone who cites it nowadays hasn't either.
To really understand the thing, you need to be quite concerned about a lot of philosophical issues of the day which are now meaningless to most people. I once was given a summary of what it was really about by a Ph.D. in the history of philosophy, and it bore little resemblance to the "Invisible Hand says 'Capitalism Rules', OK?" summary version.
ub thank you.
@ Mr. Sparkle.: Of course...I meant the effect on market psychology of C putting their household junk out on a table to raise some cash over the weekend. Looks terrible. Wonder if they got a permit?
Actually the market drop is not the 'worst since the Great Depression'. It is the worst ever. Period. Look at the chart: Even from 1929 highs it took 30 days longer to get to -51% than it has in our current decline since 2007.
Excellent piece today in Financial Armageddon about an older financial panic more similar to this current one than the one of 1929. Intriguing parallels.
Financial Armageddon
Jes | 11.20.08 - 8:21 pm | #
Jes, thank you for that link, very interesting parallels indeed, history does not repeat, it rhymes, and it sure seems like this situation and the panic of 1873 are both limricks.
P.S. I ment that as an endorsement for others to go read that link.
Anonymous writes:
Holy KOWABUNGA
Anonymous | 11.20.08 - 8:36 pm | #
(Link shows quotes for SRS & SKF).
I was in SRS for just a bit today, my first time riding it. I got out too early at 3:30, I was afraid of some PPT-esque move. Ah well! Still an excellent day.
It is the worst decline ever...forget 1929. The "jump you fuckers" sign is so appropriate. These greedy fucks have lined their pockets with so much money and politicians that they are virtually untouchable. The only way to stop this madness is to revolt against the power structure, but this will never happen unless people start going without food while these fucks fly around in their jets that should be shot down. Keep letting in more illegals, H-1B's, and Muslim refugees and sending $48 billion to Africa for AIDS and outsourcing American jobs to China and letting drug companies monopolize your health care. This country is so insane. A fuck you in advance to Bzy and lawyerrat and the rest of the fascists.
I concur with DK - we broke through the 1929 trend line which means this is no longer the greatest since 1929 - it means it's a worse market start to present then it was then at the same point. That should open some eyes! and that's why a .03 yielding treasury is where I'm at.
This is not 1929. It more like 1973. And I think the conditions and outlook fit more with that environment than the others.
Doc's post above (8:56pm) is a news item from 1973. It sounds like today's news.
Take back of 30 years of Greenspan reign in 3 years? Could be, look out below.
Dead cat bounce dead ahead. Meow
Ben's a depression expert like the 9-11 terrorists were airplane pilots. Great at destroying the economy but no clue as to how to make it take off.
There's Ben's plans for you and then there's your own plans for your life. Never the twain shall meet.
Figure 1 -
September 2008 -
TVT -
Travel Monitoring -
Policy Information - FHWA