Citigroup, responding to report it may seek merger, repeats it has very strong capital and liquidity, and is focused on executing strategy to generate benefits over time
LMAO. I feel no sympathy for Citibank whatsoever. I have received literally 1000s of credit card offers from this fat cow of a company. They will get what they deserve, god willing.
I'm thinking all those billions that Uncle Hank lent them might not have been a very good investment. And to think we put our trust in Uncle Hank to get the best bang for our buck.
KUWAIT CITY (AFP) - The United States has asked four oil-rich Gulf states for close to 300 billion dollars to help it curb the global financial meltdown, Kuwaits daily Al-Seyassah reported Thursday.
Quoting highly informed sources, the daily said Washington has asked Saudi Arabia for 120 billion dollars, the United Arab Emirates for 70 billion dollars, Qatar for 60 billion dollars and was seeking 40 billion dollars from Kuwait.
Al-Seyassah said Washington sought the amount as financial aid to face the fallout of the financial crisis and help prevent its economy from sliding into a painful recession.
The daily said the United States plans to use the funds to help the ailing automobile industry , banks and other companies suffering from the global financial turmoil.
The four nations, all members of OPEC, produce together 14 million barrels of oil per day, around half of the cartels production and about 17 percent of world supplies.
The four states are estimated to have amassed close to 1.5 trillion dollars in surplus in the past six years due to high oil prices that rocketed above 147 dollars in July before sliding to just above 50 dollars.
The daily also said that the United States has asked Kuwait to forgive its Iraqi debt estimated at around 16 billion dollars.
90% of my mail these days is junk. One day last week, we filled up half a trash bag with the shit, and that was just one day's worth. We should be offered an opt out alternative, just like the do-not-call list. That one single act is what will make Dubya the best president in U.S. history.
Good ole' Warren has pissed $3 billion down the pants leg of his Golden Slacks in the last two months. Not only would a Buffet rumor do no good he's the new Sebastian.
Do you ever get the feeling that Warren B started to believe the myth that surrounds him and that he has to some degree cultivated? Lately, I just get a sense that he has succumbed to his own bullshit.
The Great White Hype, while not a great movie, did at least remind me that believing your own bullshit can be lethal.
I suspect that you remember, as I do, the secret fed bailout of Citibaink around '92/93. At that time, Ross Perot and James Grant were hugely short on Citi, but their stock suddenly recovered in 94 and all was well.
It wasn't until '97 or '98, I was watching a Senate hearing and one of the gumbies mentioned "The Citibank Bailout".
I suspect we were never supposed to know about it all. And I've been surprised that the Feds have been so open after the bailouts started.
You're right. Letting Citi fail is big bad mojo. All I need is another 2% or 3% drop on CR's Bear chart to confirm that we are n longer in the company of 1973 and 2001.
Hey, CR, add the 1990 Nikkei crash to that thing. I'm pretty sure that's where the Feds WANT to be!
We are overdue for a screamin' rally. Today was pretty close to capitulation on strong volume. I just don't know after all this destruction if there are any brave souls left to stick with the market after 20 SPX pts...
its too bad no one will tell the truth about all of this. the creation of the cold war and the fire walling of 2/3 of the worlds population from the "west" is what created the incredible prosperity enjoyed by america/canada and western europe. once the berlin wall fell, that was that as everyone was now free to compete with everyone.
even before that event the ascension of japan and the "asian tigers" steadily stripped away america prowess in industry after industry. neither the european union nor the united states of america are sustainable in their present geopolitical form as was the former soviet union.
only one question remains: is president elect obama america's gorbachev overseeing a peaceful breakup of this country, or a covert militarist that will plunge the world into a war that kill hundreds of millions if not billions.
perhaps i should say those behind obama because there is no logical reason he is president. we all know that though no one will admit it.
The United States has asked four oil-rich Gulf states for close to 300 billion dollars
Tiberius,
USA in talks with Gulf states, "this is the deal, you offer us $300 billion to stay and protect the Persian Gulf, Dubai, Kuwait, etc... or we take our military boats & toys and go home. And btw, Israel has lots of nukes."
Perhaps they can sell off Vikram's old hedge fund to raise some money... oops!
Timeline please... it's short!
April 13, 2007: Citi Buys Pandit's Hedge Fund... There has been talk in recent days that Pandit could become a succession candidate to Prince...
May 16, 2008: Pandit's hedge fund not faring well... The news that Citigroup will essentially wind down Old Lane, the hedge fund firm that Citigroup bought for $800 million, may stand as an omen.
June 12, 2008: Citigroup Closes Vikram Pandit's Hedge Fund... Well, this is embarrassing. Citigroup has made the decision to shut down their Old Land hedge fund, which they bought just under a year ago for a whopping $800 million, from the guy who is now the company's CEO.
Lucky they've the TARP funds to pay bonuses to keep talent like this!
Ya know, I checked my local bank in the FDIC records in late 2007 to assure that they were okay and yup, they were dandy. Better than most other banks locally. And they did some restructuring and let some staff go in order to cut costs and yup, they're still dandy.
Now the paper reveals that they've been approved for $300M from the Fed as part of TARP. Paper shows some numbers verifying that they really are fine...loss reserves well in line and well capitalized. But as they stressed to the reporter that they really were in good shape, they just got in line so that they had some extra capital for "strategic acquisitions."
As to the world's smartest investor; BRK-A ia almost a half from this summer. Back to 2003 levels.
Am I the only one to notice that home prices and stock prices are basically retracing to past levels in tandem? It's almost like a coordinated effort to strip Baby Boomers of any claims to tangible assets before they could cash out.
Dang new thread already, well I'll repost for blackhalo here:
Comrade Counterpointer writes:
blackhalo - I said as much a couple of weeks ago about Prudent Bear being the Lorax of securitization. Which is not quite right becos the Lorax was always in favor of conservation. Maybe Prudent Bear is the Onceler? Exploit, repent, publish...
From the incomparable story's denouement:
"At that very moment we heard a loud whack!
From outside in the fields came a sickening smack
of an ax on a tree. Then we heard the tree fall.
The very last Truffulla Tree of them all!!
And the last lines:
"But Now", says the Onceler.
"Now that you're here
the word of the Lorax seems perfectly clear.
UNLESS someone like you
cares a whole awful lot,
nothing is going to get better.
It's not."
Sheer genius.
CC
Comrade Counterpointer | 11.20.08 - 9:03 pm | #
Who would even bank Citigroup? I have a zero interest furniture loan (that I used to stage my house that I sold) from 2006, interest free until 2012 and I'm not paying it off unti 2012.
Devil's Bastard Son: The AFP report was basically a translation-summary of an article from a major paper in Kuwait. Beyond that, no...but it does seem authentic.
One might want to be optimistic and hope that Citibank doesn't go under, but every time we have seen this kind of stock price collapse, bankruptcy/insolvency followed soon after. The really scary thing to me is that the other standing large banks are not far from the same stock price frontier.
Just a guess, but a long bank holiday is probably not far off now.
First thing on the table after the donuts and mochas will be cutting the dividend to zero and then dumping as much shit as they can over board to raise cash.
Am I the only one to notice that home prices and stock prices are basically retracing to past levels in tandem?
That's the nature of the credit cycle. I was trying to explain that to my brother last night. He's listened my palaver before but now that he's down something like, well, into the six digits, he's got a sudden graveyard serious interest.
Unfortunately, I told him what I really expect over the next five years and his face turned kind of pasty, like the Pillsbury Doughboy.
Dough-boy.
Get it?
ha ha.
It's really, really bad if we're having to borrow $300 billion form the Arabs. Oh, man, that's really bad.
(AP)Board memebers of Citibank have confirmed to AP that at the end of Friday's unscheduled board meeting, a silver chalice full of antifreeze will be passed around and sipped from.
I would not be surprised if the $300 Billion request to the arab nations is directly related to the $510 Billion in outstanding SFP short-term treasuries that will all mature between 11/20 and 1/20/09
Damn it, I screwed up the linkies on my timeline... let me try it again, with real linkies!
April 13, 2007: Citi Buys Pandit's Hedge Fund... There has been talk in recent days that Pandit could become a succession candidate to Prince...
May 16, 2008: Pandit's hedge fund not faring well... The news that Citigroup will essentially wind down Old Lane, the hedge fund firm that Citigroup bought for $800 million, may stand as an omen...
June 12, 2008: Citigroup Closes Vikram Pandit's Hedge Fund... Well, this is embarrassing. Citigroup has made the decision to shut down their Old Land hedge fund, which they bought just under a year ago for a whopping $800 million, from the guy who is now the company's CEO...
"First thing on the table after the donuts and mochas will be cutting the dividend to zero and then dumping as much shit as they can over board to raise cash.
Konazoom | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 9:21 pm | #"
That would not be helpful to the share price. I sure do hope for a sizable bear rally to jump short on that.
Guest,
Right on. I wonder if this country is just too big to be governed effectively. Seattle Salmon and logging has nothing to do with the oranges raised in Florida.
Isn't this what Paulson's speech was about? Didn't he say something to the effect that all these institutions need to keep consolidating so we can keep this whole too big to fail thing going?
mykillk writes:
Anonymous writes USA in talks with Gulf states, "this is the deal...or we take our military boats & toys and go home. Sounds a lot more like blackmail than a request.
Looks like C has something like 5.45 billion shares outstanding (market cap divided by price from Yahoo), and the volume ran just north of 724 million shares or just over 13% of the stock outstanding traded hands today...
Billionaire Sanford I. Weill, who according to Louis Uchitelle made Citigroup into the most powerful financial institution since the House of Morgan a century ago, has what I call the Wall of Me leading to his office, which he has decorated with tributes to him, including a dozen framed magazine covers. A major trophy is the pen Bill Clinton used to sign the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, a move which allowed Weill to create Citigroup. Fittingly, Citigroup is a major contributor to guess which current Democratic Presidential candidate?
Bond Girl,
Paulson's speech was more or less trying to pre-empt Sarkozy who recently surprised him by announcing a conference in January
Theme was the US was ahead of the game in calling for regulation (Paulson's contention of course) and so the rest of the world should follow its lead in establishing a new international regulatory/clearinghouse regime
Sandy Weill calls President Clinton in the evening to try to break the deadlock after Senator Phil Gramm, chairman of the Banking Committee, warned Citigroup lobbyist Roger Levy that Weill has to get White House moving on the bill or he would shut down the House-Senate conference. Serious negotiations resume, and a deal is announced at 2:45 a.m. on Oct. 22. Whether Weill made any difference in precipitating a deal is unclear.
Just days after the administration (including the Treasury Department) agrees to support the repeal, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, the former co-chairman of a major Wall Street investment bank, Goldman Sachs, raises eyebrows by accepting a top job at Citigroup as Weills chief lieutenant. The previous year, Weill had called Secretary Rubin to give him advance notice of the upcoming merger announcement. When Weill told Rubin he had some important news, the secretary reportedly quipped, Youre buying the government?
I'm not sure if others have noticed, but those blips on the "credit crisis" chart have grown progressive larger since the original warning sign of subprime mortgager implosion.
The TARP and Federal Reserver accounts act like a battery or capacitance in an electrical circuit. How well the battery is charged doesn't matter at the current moment in time.
What matters is current flow.
If we're having to borrow $300 billion from the Arabs, then I strongly suspect the "current" portion of the economy is failing.
I.E. we're on the verge of large scale revulsion, no acceptance of US dollars.
I kind of hope this isn't true.
But I expect it at some point.
From Citi's homepage:
* Citibank is one of the largest financial institutions in the world.
* Citibank has a strong capital base, diverse business mix and top industry ratings.
*Your bank deposit accounts at Citibank are FDIC Insured up to $250,000 per depositor.
Comrade Counterpointer,
I'm familiar with the Dr Seuss, surprised I didn't make the connection with just 'Seuss'. In retrospect, those books were never my thing even though I read a lot. I'm doing my best to read more fiction and I'm in the middle of Crime and Punishment by Dostoyevsky right now
WM is busy gearing up for Bernanke's big push. Not all garbage trucks are what they seem to be these days.
PeakVT | 11...
WM, Waste Management. Houston, bear with me, Houston, Oil and Gas, Oil and gas Boone Pickens, Boone Pickens, Ralph Whitworth, Ralph Whitworth, Sovereign Bank, Home Depot, Sprint, David Batchelder, Calpers, REITS, Commodities.
SOV did not get TARP money, too much Santander. Spain.
If WM is awaiting a big push, it goes back to oil and natgas, WM, Cummins, via Wesport, Canadian dollar...
Broward, how could it possibly be true that we need to borrow 300 billion from the arabs? Like I said above, this just doesn't seem like much money at this point.
Y.T. : Have you been paying attention to the latest Treasury offerings? No one is showing up...how else are we going to rollover our debt except getting loans directly from other countries (and eventually the IMF...)
"Broward, how could it possibly be true that we need to borrow 300 billion from the arabs? Like I said above, this just doesn't seem like much money at this point."
Dr. Seuss rulz! Major metaphors from Sneetches and The Cat in the Hat Comes Back...in the latter tome, the eponymous cat produces an alphabet soup of ever smaller cats from under his hat to clean up a spot that is progressively spread over the known universe until...VOOM!
mykillk writes:
Y.T. : Have you been paying attention to the latest Treasury offerings? No one is showing up...how else are we going to rollover our debt except getting loans directly from other countries (and eventually the IMF...)
mykillk | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 9:38 pm | #
Couldn't they have borrowed more today and at nice low yield?
mykillk writes:
"Y.T. : Have you been paying attention to the latest Treasury offerings? No one is showing up...how else are we going to rollover our debt except getting loans directly from other countries (and eventually the IMF...)"
Yeah, that's right. Nobody wants Treasurys. Nobody. How that squares with a 9 point rally today in the 30-year, I'll never figure out.
OT--Slaying of 3 co-workers over bad real estate investments ? (From the San Jose Mercury News)
Last Friday in Sunnyvale, a employee was fired in the morning from a tech start-up and came back in the afternoon and shot to death 3 people, including the CEO. As it turns out, the employee had more than a DOZEN investment properties. (Which I assume are probably underwater in the current real estate market.)
how could it possibly be true that we need to borrow 300 billion from the arabs? Like I said above, this just doesn't seem like much money at this point
Well, I hate to second-guess it but maybe the Feds are just trying to keep the oil flowing for now.
I agree that it seems small in comparison but that's why I wrote the "voltage vs current" metaphor.
If we need that $300 billion to meet immediate bills because nobody will take dollars...
Morocco Bama writes:
90% of my mail these days is junk. One day last week, we filled up half a trash bag with the shit, and that was just one day's worth. We should be offered an opt out alternative, just like the do-not-call list. That one single act is what will make Dubya the best president in U.S. history.
Morocco Bama | 11.20.08 - 8:57 pm | #
Mail your requests for removal from mailing lists to;
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WASHINGTON, Nov. 19, 2008 (Reuters) Chief executives of leading U.S. companies called for a fiscal stimulus package worth at least $300 billion and urged president-elect Barack Obama to swiftly name his economic team.
Dozens of chief executives met at the Wall Street Journal CEO Council event in Washington D.C. to identify what they think should be priorities for the Obama administration and the new Congress.
Wachovia Corp's Robert Steel and pension fund TIAA-CREF CEO Roger Ferguson were among those calling for a fiscal stimulus package to encourage consumer spending in the short term.
Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- California Public Employees Retirement System, the largest U.S. public pension fund, is back in the market for stakes in private-equity funds after selling $2 billion of partnerships earlier this year.
Its now a better time to be a buyer of secondary than a seller, Leon Shahinian, Calpers senior investment officer for alternative asset management, said in an interview. In the secondary market, investors trade interests in private-equity funds originally sold by buyout and venture capital firms.
Calpers sold stakes in 80 partnerships managed by 60 firms at the end of 2007, likely for higher prices than what theyd get now, Shahinian said.
bond guy,
How might we know when the swap demands are subsiding? What's the key factor forcing their purchase? If it makes a difference, I'm thinking of the long end
Why would you think that with one day left before the contracts expire worthless?
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 9:40 pm | #
I think I wasn't clear. I'm just saying I think you need to compare call volume to put volume. If they are order of magnitude similar it isn't bullish or bearish is it?
You must consider this inside your brains, because this is the most critical thing which I can say tonight: The business of banking is not a good business to be in, because the value of money is decaying, thus all debt related to lending is at risk, because it has less and less future value.
Broward Horne writes:
"Well, I hate to second-guess it but maybe the Feds are just trying to keep the oil flowing for now.
...
If we need that $300 billion to meet immediate bills because nobody will take dollars"
The price of oil is collapsing. The dollar is rising versus everything except the yen (Japan is not noted as a major oil exporter). Treasury yields have just screamed to record lows across most points of the curve.
And you're worried about the U.S. paying it's oil bills?
"Last Friday in Sunnyvale, a employee was fired in the morning from a tech start-up and came back in the afternoon and shot to death 3 people, including the CEO. As it turns out, the employee had more than a DOZEN investment properties. (Which I assume are probably underwater in the current real estate market.)
Dave of SV (formerly just Dave | 11.20.08 - 9:41 pm | #"
This is the ONE thing about this crash that scares me. Too many potential people with nothing to lose except hope.
That "U.S. seeks $300 billion from Gulf states" thing sounds a bit like B.S. to me. Or maybe just some kind of confusion, like we asked them to do something that they think will cost billions...
Would like to see some corroboration from, you know, a news agency.
FDIC Loan Modification Program Guide "Mod in a Box"
This guide provides an overview of the FDIC's program to assist bankers, servicers, and investors in this process. It outlines FDIC program terms at IndyMac Federal Bank, offers insight into the specific portfolio characteristics that drive modification modeling at that bank, and provides a framework for developing and implementing a similar program at your institution.
Loan Modification Program Overview - PDF (PDF Help)
Includes details including the philosophy, process, and promotion of the program.
Additional Program Tools - PDF 452K (PDF Help)
Includes marketing materials, workout program guidelines, and investor reporting tools for use in the program.
Gotcha - except that we see the price crater insanely the last week, we have one day left on the contract and what I don't don't know from that is whether the volume was contracts being opened or closed...except that the volume was more than an order of magnitude over the open interest at the $5 strike and more than twice at the $7.50 strike...whatever the put volume no way someone with deep pockets isn't going to try the pump tomorrow.
So they took 25bln 3 weeks ago in exchange for preferred stock and now they are worthless? Talk about adverse selection...
Hm. I wonder what offshort did those 25bil go....
Maybe this will shut Larry the fuck up about mustard seeds. I'm so fucking sick of mustard seeds. And, Jackie Fucking Gleason. Could you show your old fucking age anymore Larry?
WASHINGTON, Nov. 19, 2008 (Reuters) Chief executives of leading U.S. companies called for a fiscal stimulus package worth at least $300 billion and urged president-elect Barack Obama to swiftly name his economic team.
I think this time we better get two treasury secretaries. To much work for one.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"How might we know when the swap demands are subsiding? What's the key factor forcing their purchase? If it makes a difference, I'm thinking of the long end"
The long end (30Y) is where you see the imbalance most obviously.
When the 30-year swap spread is not going more negative by 5 basis points a day, it'll be a good sign that the demand has stopped. If I knew for sure when that will be, my employers would have to pay me a lot more money.
"Exotic product traders" (not as fun a group as exotic dancers, I'm afraid) have just discovered a massive need to hedge 30-year swap positions. I'd guess that only the swap dealers would have enough information on positioning to have an idea when things will return to something resembling normal. But one key to watch will be banks' year ends; people don't want to pile on risk positions ahead of year end. (Why get fired along with all the credit people?)
Read that book when I was a freshman in college 24 years ago. At the time, I was science and math focused and hated the literature/composition classes, but I loved that novel so much that I pretty much read every Dostoevsky novel I could find in the college library.
I would also recommend reading The Brothers Karamazov. I liked that one even better.
If this market needs a reason to liquidate on volume to a bear market lower low below 7200, CITI's poorly prepared, ill-timed sidewalk sale may be it. C, for capitulation.
90% of my mail these days is junk. One day last week, we filled up half a trash bag with the shit, and that was just one day's worth. We should be offered an opt out alternative, just like the do-not-call list. That one single act is what will make Dubya the best president in U.S. history.
Morocco Bama | 11.20.08 - 8:57 pm | #
It's here and I've used it! How to get off mailing lists: https://www.dmachoice.org/dma/member/home.action;jsessionid=ABCE10A5145CC654C14E9A83FD7E5D1C.tomcat2
mykillk,
I don't know what was behind that so I can only say that failure was an outlier. Other auctions both shorter and longer have had bids for 3-4x the cover.
It would seem like to me (and I am not a professional Treasuries guy at all) that the open market Treasuries are being targeted by the new quantitative easing policy, while the auction treasuries have little demand. Which one is real...which is being manipulated??
citizen energyecon - yes it's all heading to VOOM.
VOOM is what's needed.
But the VOOM is the ultimate fixer-upper... so what does it look like?
If I knew I would know
And I don't frankly, so
I'm leaving here the cards of us here
And heisting myself to a location somewhere
Where no grickle grass grows
And everyone knows
The perils of circusing finanlcial flows
Anonymous writes:
"Cracker writes:
FED/Treasury is buying down the long end via the derivatives at MS/GS,
Isn't that illegal?"
I would guess it would be illegal.
But it's also very unlikely - USD swap spreads are only doing the exact same thing as did EUR and GBP swap spreads a month ago. The same structured products were sold, generating the same need for everyone to hedge in the same way at the same time.
In other words, this was a purely private sector cluster^%&@.
bond guy,
Thanks. I'm just trying to understand what common factors are now creating a rush of covering on swaps. fwiw, bond girl last night posted about the continuing debacle of Japan's power reverse dual currency notes and their involvement in the swaps
FFDIC - did you see that they are going to halt construction on the Stoneleigh in uptown Dallas? Evidently the crane comes down next week with only 10 of 22 stories complete.
Paulson is a complete idiot. When he said he wouldn't draw down the other half of the TARP, he set it up for the hedgies to short the hell out of the financials to call his bluff. That guy is the worst treasury secretary imaginable.
mykillk,
Thanks for the links to the failed auctions. I had looked for them yesterday but only found the successful ones. It is hard to make sense of it all when there's so much extraordinary actio
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
mykillk,
I know what's going on here. Read the heading, those are the non competitive results. You have to view the full results (the competitive bidding by the primary dealers is used to set the price for non competitive and winning competitive bids)
FFDIC - did you see that they are going to halt construction on the Stoneleigh in uptown Dallas? Evidently the crane comes down next week with only 10 of 22 stories complete.
Mr. Sparkle | 11.20.08 - 9:57 pm | #
That was a bad deal to begin with Sparkles. Whassup in LH?
"Paulson is a complete idiot. When he said he wouldn't draw down the other half of the TARP, he set it up for the hedgies to short the hell out of the financials to call his bluff. That guy is the worst treasury secretary imaginable."
I can not imagine he is that thick. Perhaps it was a strategy to fund GS to acquire all competitors at bargain prices.
Id go with blackhalo's theory. I think GS eats C. WFC is still choking one down, as is JPM. WTF is left that is hungry and unfed, ya know? Especially, one that is FOH (friends of Hank) which rules out MS, which, btw, you should be shorting the hell out of tomorrow. (Nope, I did not say that.)
mykillk writes:
"It would seem like to me (and I am not a professional Treasuries guy at all) that the open market Treasuries are being targeted by the new quantitative easing policy, while the auction treasuries have little demand. Which one is real...which is being manipulated??"
Auctions are inherently risky now. The primary dealers don't have the balance sheet or risk budget to ensure that all the auctions run smoothly. The auctions thus turn into a big flow that can push the market around.
In other words, the lousy auction generated volatility, but with yields now at record lows, it's safe to say the downward trend in rates was not broken by the auction results.
That said, there's nothing to say that trend won't change. To justify current pricing, you have to assume that the Authorities are largely impotent in the face of deflation.
As for quantitative easing, the whole point of the exercise is to lower bond yields. The Fed manipulates interest rates every working day of the year; that's their job description.
you could say, co-ordinated Sovereign Quantitative Easing, but that sounds hard, and stupid. Like the papers out of the G20......its a "dont let the krill panic, keep the peace, and give me all your moeny momment"
Why are these bozos waiting until tomorrow? They are paid tens of millions; could they not get their asses into the back seats of their Maybachs and drive to the crystal palace before it comes tumbling down?
My wife is working a night shift right now for 120 per hour - could these billionaires not skip one night of beauty sleep??
Regulators Take Steps to Monitor Some Thrifts - WSJ.com
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is paying closer attention to roughly 100 community banks with large exposure to weak commercial real-estate loans, one in a series of moves by federal regulators to try to head off the next phase in the credit crisis.
Despite the $700 billion rescue plan that Treasury is using to pump capital into hundreds of banks and thrifts, regulators continue to mobilize initiatives to stabilize the banking sector. Federal officials have faced criticism in recent months about not doing enough to head off the financial crisis. Steps regulators are taking come ...
The key thing to look at on those pdf's is the "bid to cover" ratio. There doesn't seem to be (on those pages) the intended size. On the May '38's, it looks like the reoffer was 10MM, and there were over 20MM bid, for a b2c ratio of 2 (its at the bottom of the pdf page you link).
2 is about the long term b2c average, closer to 3 is really good, but for the 30 yr, 2 is a little low. Too bad for everyone who wasn't more aggressive in bidding for those, though: they're trading at 3.50 yield today (up over 7 on the day).
So, does anyone here think that class warfare will ensue with what's happening in this economy?
craigslist | 11.20.08 - 10:12 pm | #
Hell, we have class warfare almost daily here on CR after midnight. The lesbian and gay folks have been getting pretty beat up of late. Blacks not so much.
The vote comes after the Fed Board hears proposals from Citicorp, J.P. Morgan and Bankers Trust advocating the loosening of Glass-Steagall restrictions to allow banks to handle several underwriting businesses, including commercial paper, municipal revenue bonds, and mortgage-backed securities. Thomas Theobald, then vice chairman of Citicorp, argues that three "outside checks" on corporate misbehavior had emerged since 1933: "a very effective" SEC; knowledgeable investors, and "very sophisticated" rating agencies. Volcker is unconvinced, and expresses his fear that lenders will recklessly lower loan standards in pursuit of lucrative securities offerings and market bad loans to the public
Are you in a position to know that the swap/30yr situation is being caused by exotics? This just seems to be the new theory to me, because last week it was pensions.
I'd really like to know what the magnitude of their exposure is, because this was quite the movement today.
What are Conjure's thoughts on the passage below (from Wikipedia)? I know Misean expressed a similar sentiment in an earlier thread today - does Conjure agree with the Austrians? Thanks!
Economists of the Austrian school challenge the idea that Japan experienced a liquidity trap, instead contending it suffered from the bust portion of a business cycle brought on by monetary inflation, which could only be cured by allowing the bust to liquidate the malinvestments made during the boom. Austrians contend that busts are necessary corrections to booms and that artificial credit expansion or other government interference will only make the bust longer or delay an even bigger bust. Thus, they blame Japan's rigorous government interference in the market for causing the bust to last throughout the decade.
I thought a b2c in the 2 range was pretty low, but I was not aware that the the 'typical' b2c ratio is different between different term Treasuries as Austin Tex just pointed out
At first I thought mykillk had found the auction where the Treasury had reduced the amount auctioned (sometime in the last month, or am I imagining it?) until I re-read it
I reluctantly called for passage of the final bill because it did include such a channel, although it didnt require that Paulson use it. There were a lot of accusations against those of us who took that position claims that we were caving in, or trying to have it both ways. But the equity issue was crucial and may now be the thing that turns a useless plan into something that really does a lot of good.
PK 10/9/08
Dont panic about the stock market.
Panic about the credit markets instead. Interest rate on 3-month Treasuries at 0.02%; interest rate on high-yield (junk) bonds over 20%.
The value of money will be worth less in the future, because there will be fewer ways to make money, thus what you have today, is worth more today, than next year (like inflation) however, if you invest your money in something like a bond or equity, those will burn your cash faster than if you just hold your money (which is already decreasing in value). The thing that makes this more difficult, is the inability to make more money to pay for debt and this is why banks are in the wrong business, because they have the most to lose and no way to make money.
AlSeyassah is known for putting out planted material, I think running this with no corroboration was a lapse on the part of the AFP desk and you won't see anything further about it. But it isn't a reflection on the Arab media any more than the National Enquirer, say is a reflection on the state of Florida
mykillk,
30yr bonds are dominated by official purchases. It's a thinner/more expensive market for the Treasury. (most individuals do not want to be locked in to low yields for 30yrs, exposed to significant inflation risk, etc)
the short end is more popular for similar and other reasons
"but I was not aware that the the 'typical' b2c ratio is different between different term Treasuries"
Segmented markets make it so sometimes. The market for duration is different than the market for cash management paper. Also, 30 years are more scarce. They're used for such things (or at least used to, when the world was orderly) insurance companies backing annuities, structured settlements, etc.
I didn't mean to imply that there are hard and set "rules," just that 30 years typically have pretty good interest.
well paulson waned of a crash and martial law. We got the crash whendoes martial law ensue?
As for cash losing value now oh contrare. As slong as excess resevres pile up at fed no such luck. The dollar is picking up puirchasing power at the moment as deflation sets in. Timing the inflationary burst is next to impossible but hard to see it happening fast with the current psychological dmaage that has been inflicted
"One who turns away from recklessness
Is like the moon emerging from the clouds
Her evil deeds give away to good and she
Is like the moon emerging from the clouds." -- Dhammapada 172-173
@EHP: Re "failed" auction. I don't know that there was an auction that didn't cover, but I think as the eye of the storm passed over in the fortnight before the election till about now, there were some pretty weak auctions.
But if they were weak now, with bills at 10bps and 30 yrs at 3.50 -all historical lows- and with A&M in the running for the national championship, and negative swap spreads, that all would add up to the Second Coming being right after Thanksgiving.
Chuck Prince Citigroup CEO: When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, youve got to get up and dance. Were still dancing".
Or maybe Tech? I don't know. Some Texas team, I'm told. Have to admit, not much of a college football fan, and not from Texas. If they're not, then the Second Coming is evidently delayed once again.
Omaha Slim: When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, youve got to get up and dance. Were still dancing".
"And when it does, we'll have ducked out early with two dames and left Pandit to get his ass beat in the parking lot by the greasers."
So far, I've seen about four theories on the swap issue: 1) pensions hedging who knows what, 2) investors hedging illiquid corporates, 3) yen plays, and then also saw this today on ACT:
"The 30 year swap rate is 2.84. It has dropped about 80 basis points on the day and is about 60 basis points rich to the 30 year Treasury.I just spoke with an options trader about this historic move. He said that there structured product trades buried in trading books all over the world which are melting. There is a massive short in the 30 year sector (in Treasury paper and in the swap market) which resulted from sales of cheap volatility. Some of these positions have been on the books of various entities for years and it is only recently that the chickens have come home to roost. Each time the spread turns more negative, that movement forces some one to receive in swaps to hedge there position. There are short the long end trades in every permutation and combination along the curve. The receiving creates a self fulfilling prophecy which compels someone else to receive. He had no opinion on when this would end."
(And of course some QE theories about.)
Whatever it is, it does get exhausting listening to the talking heads say there was a flight to quality across the curve. This stuff is unrelated to the short term. But it might make some of the fiscal strategies more affordable if it continues....
Citigroup Inc., which fell as much as 25 percent in New York trading today, is urging the Securities and Exchange Commission to revive a prohibition on short-selling financial stocks, according to a person familiar with the matter.
~~~~
Where is the uptick rule anyway ? Cox sucking his thumb or just part of the assault on equity?
Citi ungroup
Mortgage Pig just scared the crap out of m e.
It just goes on and on.
Thoid?
Maybe Wachovia could buy them.
....................2nd?
Last bank standing.
3 thanksgiving ago I remember buying this for around 45$.
Ahh the memories..... Thanks C!
so how much voting rights do I have from my TARP equity stake?
Must be the bottom.
Citigroup, responding to report it may seek merger, repeats it has very strong capital and liquidity, and is focused on executing strategy to generate benefits over time
oh wait...
I had a question for anyone.
That list of borrowers for the TARP that CR posted. Was that the list that Bloomberg was suing the Gov. to get?
TIA
....
Rumor has it China wants to buy it and rename it CitiGloup.
O MAN................
Yeah, but what does the Saudi Prince say .... or was it he that called it ?
CitiGloup...now with melamine!®
Who would want this lemon with its 1 trillion of off-balance sheet toxic garbage?
Sell off what you can and let the rest die!
"Was that the list that Bloomberg was suing the Gov. to get?"
No. Bloomberg wanted the list of crap the Fed was taking for collateral in all of its alphabet soup programs.
Topus Secretus.
nades(Unrated) writes:
I had a question for anyone.
That list of borrowers for the TARP that CR posted. Was that the list that Bloomberg was suing the Gov. to get?
TIA
I believe Bloomberg wanted the Fed's list of borrowers and collateral used.
Sorry, Plant.
I must type faster.
Plantagent thanks!
........
If the Warren rumor is not floating around it means these guys arent worth a dime.
(either that or the Warren rumor has been played out...)
Every man for himself! Run away! Run away!
LMAO. I feel no sympathy for Citibank whatsoever. I have received literally 1000s of credit card offers from this fat cow of a company. They will get what they deserve, god willing.
They tank tomorrow....
Some pissed off trader probably sold some derivatives and repriced Citi's book to junk.
Think about how many trees will be saved.
can't wait til we can start squatting the glass citi tower in queens and start the grow rooms
such great southern sunlight exposure...
"At Smith Barney, we make money the old-fashioned way. We steal it."
Trader Al-Dubaie and Barffett should buy more.
morocco, exactamundo.
and how many trees can be grown in their eyesore of a building.
Allaweed.
smoke em if ya got em by the balls.
For you Nemo.
YouTube - Smith Barney
Prince Smokinweed increased his ownership from 4% to 5%, and the stock immediately fell 25%.
If he doubles his stake will it get cut in half?
fasten seat belts ... assume crash position ... "this sucker's going down."
Two banks enter.
One bank leaves.
BANKERDOME!!!
Citi's demise puts fear into even me.
TPTB could lie, cheat, steal, break any law, and stick a $700 billion pipe directly into the Treasury, and they STILL could not save Citi.
This sucker really IS going down.
Thread music -
YouTube - Duffy - Mercy - Official Music Video
"I'm begging you for mercy, mercy"
I'm thinking all those billions that Uncle Hank lent them might not have been a very good investment. And to think we put our trust in Uncle Hank to get the best bang for our buck.
http://www.infiniteunknown.net/2008/11/20/us-seeks-300-billion-from-gulf-states-report/
The US has asked four oil-rich Gulf states for close to US$300 billion to help it curb the global financial meltdown, Kuwaits daily Al-Seyassah has reported.
(AFP/File/Hassan Ammar)
KUWAIT CITY (AFP) - The United States has asked four oil-rich Gulf states for close to 300 billion dollars to help it curb the global financial meltdown, Kuwaits daily Al-Seyassah reported Thursday.
Quoting highly informed sources, the daily said Washington has asked Saudi Arabia for 120 billion dollars, the United Arab Emirates for 70 billion dollars, Qatar for 60 billion dollars and was seeking 40 billion dollars from Kuwait.
Al-Seyassah said Washington sought the amount as financial aid to face the fallout of the financial crisis and help prevent its economy from sliding into a painful recession.
The daily said the United States plans to use the funds to help the ailing automobile industry , banks and other companies suffering from the global financial turmoil.
The four nations, all members of OPEC, produce together 14 million barrels of oil per day, around half of the cartels production and about 17 percent of world supplies.
The four states are estimated to have amassed close to 1.5 trillion dollars in surplus in the past six years due to high oil prices that rocketed above 147 dollars in July before sliding to just above 50 dollars.
The daily also said that the United States has asked Kuwait to forgive its Iraqi debt estimated at around 16 billion dollars.
Thu Nov 20, 2:29 am ET
Source: AFP
1 coin enters.
3 pigs leave.
barterdome!
Did the Saudi prince say that he was buying an additional 1%? Maybe he shorted 1% for a hedge.
Looks like the banks are playing "ring around the rosie" and they have finally gotten to the "all fall down" part.
90% of my mail these days is junk. One day last week, we filled up half a trash bag with the shit, and that was just one day's worth. We should be offered an opt out alternative, just like the do-not-call list. That one single act is what will make Dubya the best president in U.S. history.
Good ole' Warren has pissed $3 billion down the pants leg of his Golden Slacks in the last two months. Not only would a Buffet rumor do no good he's the new Sebastian.
I think we will see some upside price action in Citi tomorrow...that said, this sucker is going down...
genet, yup.
that's what pandit gets for laughing as he exited the treasury dept.
remember that photo?
he forgot about kali and her gender.
this is what we might call a 5.0 self countersinker
Screwfix.com - Trade Prices | Massive Range | Fast & Reliable
five Benjamins enter.
3.4329587 leave.
deflationdome....
rob dawg, thats the best I've felt all day. thank you sir, may I have another!
"who would want this lemon with its $1 trillion of off-balance sheet toxic waste?"
Eh, Lex Luthor?
Rob Dawg,
Do you ever get the feeling that Warren B started to believe the myth that surrounds him and that he has to some degree cultivated? Lately, I just get a sense that he has succumbed to his own bullshit.
The Great White Hype, while not a great movie, did at least remind me that believing your own bullshit can be lethal.
The DAWG off the top ropes! Delivers the Swanton Bomb!!!
LOL ! ! ! ! !
broward, that song's hot.
gracias.
Plantagenet This sucker really IS going down
I suspect that you remember, as I do, the secret fed bailout of Citibaink around '92/93. At that time, Ross Perot and James Grant were hugely short on Citi, but their stock suddenly recovered in 94 and all was well.
It wasn't until '97 or '98, I was watching a Senate hearing and one of the gumbies mentioned "The Citibank Bailout".
I suspect we were never supposed to know about it all. And I've been surprised that the Feds have been so open after the bailouts started.
You're right. Letting Citi fail is big bad mojo. All I need is another 2% or 3% drop on CR's Bear chart to confirm that we are n longer in the company of 1973 and 2001.
Hey, CR, add the 1990 Nikkei crash to that thing. I'm pretty sure that's where the Feds WANT to be!
Blackhalo,
Updated 2008 version of "ring around the rosie" alludes to the bank plague
Count Vigo is smiling
We are overdue for a screamin' rally. Today was pretty close to capitulation on strong volume. I just don't know after all this destruction if there are any brave souls left to stick with the market after 20 SPX pts...
We are stronger than ever and all rumors are baseless. And we are selling the company at firesale price.
And I get paid 100 million for crafting this message.
Love- pandit
"comrade tinman writes:
can't wait til we can start squatting the glass citi tower in queens and start the grow rooms ;)"
Damn Fine Idea! And a short walk to the beach too!
ChittyBank.
Nuff said!
Some more thread music.
YouTube - Nathalie Cardone - Che Guevara
its too bad no one will tell the truth about all of this. the creation of the cold war and the fire walling of 2/3 of the worlds population from the "west" is what created the incredible prosperity enjoyed by america/canada and western europe. once the berlin wall fell, that was that as everyone was now free to compete with everyone.
even before that event the ascension of japan and the "asian tigers" steadily stripped away america prowess in industry after industry. neither the european union nor the united states of america are sustainable in their present geopolitical form as was the former soviet union.
only one question remains: is president elect obama america's gorbachev overseeing a peaceful breakup of this country, or a covert militarist that will plunge the world into a war that kill hundreds of millions if not billions.
perhaps i should say those behind obama because there is no logical reason he is president. we all know that though no one will admit it.
"Updated 2008 version of "ring around the rosie" alludes to the bank plague
Anonymous | 11.20.08 - 9:01 pm | # "
Snopes says no.
snopes.com: Ring Around the Rosie
guest, exactly my thoughts and questions.
The Bank of Chevy Chase turning the tables on Citi?
Maybe the Payday Loan Association will
make a bid. It might have use for the name and the branch bank network.
Citi Payday Loans.
Not only would a Buffet rumor do no good he's the new Sebastian
I don't think so, Dawg.
I admit, I appalled at Buffett's recent audacity but I finally decided that he thinks it's 1907 and he's playing the part of JP Morgan.
I think he fruit-looped out to think that the fundamentals of this crash are similar, but I can understand his sentiment.
The United States has asked four oil-rich Gulf states for close to 300 billion dollars
Tiberius,
USA in talks with Gulf states, "this is the deal, you offer us $300 billion to stay and protect the Persian Gulf, Dubai, Kuwait, etc... or we take our military boats & toys and go home. And btw, Israel has lots of nukes."
thread music: nick cave
YouTube -
Yo Chuck Prince
You still dancing ?
What a cluster F*** !
Maybe Buffett can write another editorial to convince sheeple that all is well with american finance and industry.
Broward Horne,
Tend to agree on the "fruit-looped" thingie. Plus, there's probably not a small number of people who see him as the J.P. Morgan of this era.
Anonymous writes USA in talks with Gulf states, "this is the deal... ------- Sounds a lot more like blackmail than a request
Guess Citibank hasn't noticed: THERE ARE NO BUYERS!
Perhaps they can sell off Vikram's old hedge fund to raise some money... oops!
Timeline please... it's short!
April 13, 2007: Citi Buys Pandit's Hedge Fund
... There has been talk in recent days that Pandit could become a succession candidate to Prince...
May 16, 2008: Pandit's hedge fund not faring well
... The news that Citigroup will essentially wind down Old Lane, the hedge fund firm that Citigroup bought for $800 million, may stand as an omen.
June 12, 2008: Citigroup Closes Vikram Pandit's Hedge Fund
... Well, this is embarrassing. Citigroup has made the decision to shut down their Old Land hedge fund, which they bought just under a year ago for a whopping $800 million, from the guy who is now the company's CEO.
Lucky they've the TARP funds to pay bonuses to keep talent like this!
Ya know, I checked my local bank in the FDIC records in late 2007 to assure that they were okay and yup, they were dandy. Better than most other banks locally. And they did some restructuring and let some staff go in order to cut costs and yup, they're still dandy.
Now the paper reveals that they've been approved for $300M from the Fed as part of TARP. Paper shows some numbers verifying that they really are fine...loss reserves well in line and well capitalized. But as they stressed to the reporter that they really were in good shape, they just got in line so that they had some extra capital for "strategic acquisitions."
Bastards.
Thank you, you moral hazard pigs.
so tomorrow is also option expiry...any chance PPT uses this opportunity to eff all the people long put options, like they did last August?
homedad,
Nope...just smart.
Bank, bank, Citi Citi bank bank we love you!
As to the world's smartest investor; BRK-A ia almost a half from this summer. Back to 2003 levels.
Am I the only one to notice that home prices and stock prices are basically retracing to past levels in tandem? It's almost like a coordinated effort to strip Baby Boomers of any claims to tangible assets before they could cash out.
DCRogers,
Neat storyline, was not aware of that
DCRogers thanks for posting that. I didnt know the time line. Makes me sick all and all. Lets face it Jas was right and it f'in sucks....
Citi Citi Bank Bank we love you
YouTube - chitty chitty bang bang
If that AFP story is true, it might explain why "President Change" is ok with keeping US troops in Iraq for (at least) 3 more years.
Is there any corroboration of the AFP story, anywhere?
Dang new thread already, well I'll repost for blackhalo here:
Comrade Counterpointer writes:
blackhalo - I said as much a couple of weeks ago about Prudent Bear being the Lorax of securitization. Which is not quite right becos the Lorax was always in favor of conservation. Maybe Prudent Bear is the Onceler? Exploit, repent, publish...
From the incomparable story's denouement:
"At that very moment we heard a loud whack!
From outside in the fields came a sickening smack
of an ax on a tree. Then we heard the tree fall.
The very last Truffulla Tree of them all!!
And the last lines:
"But Now", says the Onceler.
"Now that you're here
the word of the Lorax seems perfectly clear.
UNLESS someone like you
cares a whole awful lot,
nothing is going to get better.
It's not."
Sheer genius.
CC
Comrade Counterpointer | 11.20.08 - 9:03 pm | #
I feel like a born-and-bred dope!
Unscheduled meeting? What, I had a manicure scheuled.
When the people find they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic.
Well Ben...we're officially there.
poster formerly known as ni:
I agree,intellectually.
But these bastards are perfectly willing to help with Nero's orchestra while the city burns.
And yeah, I'll be looking for a new bank...
I never new that Citibank was a real bank. Where are the branches?
mebbe Waste Management will want them.
Who would even bank Citigroup? I have a zero interest furniture loan (that I used to stage my house that I sold) from 2006, interest free until 2012 and I'm not paying it off unti 2012.
Devil's Bastard Son: The AFP report was basically a translation-summary of an article from a major paper in Kuwait. Beyond that, no...but it does seem authentic.
724.37M Is this record volumes for C ?
Does anyone believe the firm can survive ?
Its AIG 2.0 I guess. How many ppl were working in AIG. I know C has 350,000.
Lorax, Onceler?
Out of my league guys
"Neat storyline, was not aware of that
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.20.08 - 9:13 pm | #"
Me neither. I'm liking the AG Nom more and more.
One might want to be optimistic and hope that Citibank doesn't go under, but every time we have seen this kind of stock price collapse, bankruptcy/insolvency followed soon after. The really scary thing to me is that the other standing large banks are not far from the same stock price frontier.
Just a guess, but a long bank holiday is probably not far off now.
Its AIG 2.0 I guess. How many ppl were working in AIG. I know C has 350,000.
Thaksin | 11.20.08 - 9:19 pm | #
Work program. Instead of digging and filling in holes, they are pushing paper.
More destructive than holes however.
First thing on the table after the donuts and mochas will be cutting the dividend to zero and then dumping as much shit as they can over board to raise cash.
Am I the only one to notice that home prices and stock prices are basically retracing to past levels in tandem?
That's the nature of the credit cycle. I was trying to explain that to my brother last night. He's listened my palaver before but now that he's down something like, well, into the six digits, he's got a sudden graveyard serious interest.
Unfortunately, I told him what I really expect over the next five years and his face turned kind of pasty, like the Pillsbury Doughboy.
Dough-boy.
Get it?
ha ha.
It's really, really bad if we're having to borrow $300 billion form the Arabs. Oh, man, that's really bad.
(AP)Board memebers of Citibank have confirmed to AP that at the end of Friday's unscheduled board meeting, a silver chalice full of antifreeze will be passed around and sipped from.
"Lorax, Onceler?
Out of my league guys
EvilHenryPaulson | 11.20.08 - 9:20 pm | #"
No kids? Or is Suess too leftist these days? Pretty popular fellow in my day.
mebbe Waste Management will want them.
WM is busy gearing up for Bernanke's big push. Not all garbage trucks are what they seem to be these days.
I don't even follow Citi but all the stories and rumors flying about this bank are unreal.
Its hard to imagine any bank with the resources to take on this institution or one crazy enough to want to.
The good news is only about $120 billion of its $850 billion of deposits are FDIC insured I understand.
Is there any corroboration of the AFP story, anywhere?
The Devil's Bastard Son | 11.20.08 - 9:14 pm | #
It's been out for 11 hours now.
I would not be surprised if the $300 Billion request to the arab nations is directly related to the $510 Billion in outstanding SFP short-term treasuries that will all mature between 11/20 and 1/20/09
Waste Management has a toxic waste division. Does that mean they are covered by a TARP or that they are a TARP?
Sweet, maybe I can buy the glass steagall pen from an office furniture liquidator for pennies!
What did they think was going to happen after they put it up on the wall? The Universe won't stand for sh*t like that.
Damn it, I screwed up the linkies on my timeline... let me try it again, with real linkies!
April 13, 2007: Citi Buys Pandit's Hedge Fund... There has been talk in recent days that Pandit could become a succession candidate to Prince...
May 16, 2008: Pandit's hedge fund not faring well... The news that Citigroup will essentially wind down Old Lane, the hedge fund firm that Citigroup bought for $800 million, may stand as an omen...
June 12, 2008: Citigroup Closes Vikram Pandit's Hedge Fund... Well, this is embarrassing. Citigroup has made the decision to shut down their Old Land hedge fund, which they bought just under a year ago for a whopping $800 million, from the guy who is now the company's CEO...
I don't get it. I thought 300 billion was chump change these days.
"First thing on the table after the donuts and mochas will be cutting the dividend to zero and then dumping as much shit as they can over board to raise cash.
Konazoom | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 9:21 pm | #"
That would not be helpful to the share price. I sure do hope for a sizable bear rally to jump short on that.
"Oh, man, that's really bad."
"The good news is only about $120 billion of its $850 billion of deposits are FDIC insured I understand."
bad & good are relative terms these days....
Guest,
Right on. I wonder if this country is just too big to be governed effectively. Seattle Salmon and logging has nothing to do with the oranges raised in Florida.
YEN looks tired tonight. I am ready for the move to 97 tomorrow and a 600 pt dow move. What say you?
only $150 bio out of $850 bio FDIC insured ?
do you haev a link ?
I guess people would haev started tenting out before ATMS if that were the case ?
dr strangemoney writes:
Sweet, maybe I can buy the glass steagall pen from an office furniture liquidator for pennies!
Bill Clinton gave it to a European Hedgie. True story.
Isn't this what Paulson's speech was about? Didn't he say something to the effect that all these institutions need to keep consolidating so we can keep this whole too big to fail thing going?
mykillk writes:
Anonymous writes USA in talks with Gulf states, "this is the deal...or we take our military boats & toys and go home. Sounds a lot more like blackmail than a request.
No. That's what Osama always whished !
"The good news is only about $120 billion of its $850 billion of deposits are FDIC insured I understand.
Unit472 | 11.20.08 - 9:23 pm | # "
I have herd that tune before, and I don't like how it ends.
Blackhalo,
I have no idea whom or what Lorax and Onceler are. Suess too for that matter
Looks like C has something like 5.45 billion shares outstanding (market cap divided by price from Yahoo), and the volume ran just north of 724 million shares or just over 13% of the stock outstanding traded hands today...
Where did it land?
Bill Clinton gave my girlfriend Monica a cigar ...
Thaksin, don't have the link but Felix
Salmon over at Seeking Alpha from earlier this week was where I got the factoid from. He's pretty reliable.
Citi will be assumed by Mother-Ship Goldman @ the strike of Noon; resistance is futile.
Billionaire Sanford I. Weill, who according to Louis Uchitelle made Citigroup into the most powerful financial institution since the House of Morgan a century ago, has what I call the Wall of Me leading to his office, which he has decorated with tributes to him, including a dozen framed magazine covers. A major trophy is the pen Bill Clinton used to sign the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act, a move which allowed Weill to create Citigroup. Fittingly, Citigroup is a major contributor to guess which current Democratic Presidential candidate?
EHP - it's Dr Seuss. One of the best sociologists of the last 50 years.
Try teh googles:
Lorax
The Sneetches
Pale Green Pants
The Zax
Mrs McCave
And bo oh boy you'll get some metaphors.
Not marketed in Canada? Jeez, criminal.
CC
I think perhaps the music has stopped.
Metro Atlanta Business News | ajc.com
FDICs Atlanta office is in hiring mode
Banking crisis means regulator could boost staff by 10% next year
Bond Girl --
I believe Paulson's idea is that the strong banks need to get stronger and the weak banks need to get bought. Or something.
Working great so far.
Wouldn't C make for one h*ll of a bank failure Friday, though?
Bond Girl,
Paulson's speech was more or less trying to pre-empt Sarkozy who recently surprised him by announcing a conference in January
Theme was the US was ahead of the game in calling for regulation (Paulson's contention of course) and so the rest of the world should follow its lead in establishing a new international regulatory/clearinghouse regime
Wow, just wow!!! Thanks, Anonymous......I think.
I bid on the Vikings for $1.
"I never new that Citibank was a real bank. Where are the branches?
PSgirl | 11.20.08 - 9:16 pm | #"
Your mailbox...
Sandy Weill calls President Clinton in the evening to try to break the deadlock after Senator Phil Gramm, chairman of the Banking Committee, warned Citigroup lobbyist Roger Levy that Weill has to get White House moving on the bill or he would shut down the House-Senate conference. Serious negotiations resume, and a deal is announced at 2:45 a.m. on Oct. 22. Whether Weill made any difference in precipitating a deal is unclear.
Just days after the administration (including the Treasury Department) agrees to support the repeal, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, the former co-chairman of a major Wall Street investment bank, Goldman Sachs, raises eyebrows by accepting a top job at Citigroup as Weills chief lieutenant. The previous year, Weill had called Secretary Rubin to give him advance notice of the upcoming merger announcement. When Weill told Rubin he had some important news, the secretary reportedly quipped, Youre buying the government?
I feel if C were to merge, it would be with MS
Both fell badly yesterday. Both CEOs have worked together earlier.
the biggest deal is...how will market react to this news.
MS badly wants to merge with someone so that they hide behind someone.
I'm not sure if others have noticed, but those blips on the "credit crisis" chart have grown progressive larger since the original warning sign of subprime mortgager implosion.
The TARP and Federal Reserver accounts act like a battery or capacitance in an electrical circuit. How well the battery is charged doesn't matter at the current moment in time.
What matters is current flow.
If we're having to borrow $300 billion from the Arabs, then I strongly suspect the "current" portion of the economy is failing.
I.E. we're on the verge of large scale revulsion, no acceptance of US dollars.
I kind of hope this isn't true.
But I expect it at some point.
From Citi's homepage:
* Citibank is one of the largest financial institutions in the world.
* Citibank has a strong capital base, diverse business mix and top industry ratings.
*Your bank deposit accounts at Citibank are FDIC Insured up to $250,000 per depositor.
"WM is busy gearing up for Bernanke's big push. Not all garbage trucks are what they seem to be these days."
That's it. There aren't enough helicopters, so they're going to toss bales of dollars out of garbage trucks.
Comrade Counterpointer,
I'm familiar with the Dr Seuss, surprised I didn't make the connection with just 'Seuss'. In retrospect, those books were never my thing even though I read a lot. I'm doing my best to read more fiction and I'm in the middle of Crime and Punishment by Dostoyevsky right now
Have we ever had to borrow money from foreign countries before?
Oregonians here, say aye.
AYE !
mebbe Waste Management will want them.
WM is busy gearing up for Bernanke's big push. Not all garbage trucks are what they seem to be these days.
PeakVT | 11...
WM, Waste Management. Houston, bear with me, Houston, Oil and Gas, Oil and gas Boone Pickens, Boone Pickens, Ralph Whitworth, Ralph Whitworth, Sovereign Bank, Home Depot, Sprint, David Batchelder, Calpers, REITS, Commodities.
SOV did not get TARP money, too much Santander. Spain.
If WM is awaiting a big push, it goes back to oil and natgas, WM, Cummins, via Wesport, Canadian dollar...
WM, IS Canadian natgas engines.
Buy 1 bank get 1 free!
OT-recession bad, but not the Big One. The MS article about why this recession won't be as bad as Japan in the 90's or the U.S. in the 30's.
Financial news, business, blogs, finance director jobs - Director of Finance Online
Broward, how could it possibly be true that we need to borrow 300 billion from the arabs? Like I said above, this just doesn't seem like much money at this point.
Guessing that best efforts will be put forth tomorrow for an opex rally and financials short squeeze...just sayin
Citi $5 Calls November expiry
Volume: 55,751
Open Interest: 4,600
Citi $7.50 Calls November expiry
Volume: 51,717
Open Interest: 22,339
Relational Investors.
Washington Railroad Billionair, Dennis Washington.
But what is the put volume? Meaningless if they are the same no?
Citigroup? More like Shittygroup. Amirite?
Have we ever had to borrow money from foreign countries before?
Every day.
Y.T. : Have you been paying attention to the latest Treasury offerings? No one is showing up...how else are we going to rollover our debt except getting loans directly from other countries (and eventually the IMF...)
"Broward, how could it possibly be true that we need to borrow 300 billion from the arabs? Like I said above, this just doesn't seem like much money at this point."
+++
Buddy, can you spare a dime?
I'm in the middle of Crime and Punishment by Dostoyevsky right now
One of the best works of fiction ever written. How about that ending when he goes to his mother and ...
Comrade CC,
Dr. Seuss rulz! Major metaphors from Sneetches and The Cat in the Hat Comes Back...in the latter tome, the eponymous cat produces an alphabet soup of ever smaller cats from under his hat to clean up a spot that is progressively spread over the known universe until...VOOM!
What if Citi merged with CITIC and that Indian bank ICICI.
Would it be CITICICICICITI?
I wonder if this country is just too big to be governed effectively
One strongly circumstantial reason that the Roman Empire recovered briefly is that they established two capitals, Rome and Constantinople.
We're moving kind fast to be there already but... it IS the digital age.
Frequently Asked Questions
Crime doesn't pay.
(Unless you're senior enough to get a fat severance package. Then it pays handsomely.)
mykillk writes:
Y.T. : Have you been paying attention to the latest Treasury offerings? No one is showing up...how else are we going to rollover our debt except getting loans directly from other countries (and eventually the IMF...)
mykillk | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 9:38 pm | #
Couldn't they have borrowed more today and at nice low yield?
Wouldn't C make for one h*ll of a bank failure Friday, though?
Nemo | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 9:30 pm
I think this is more of a Sunday night candidate.
mykillk writes:
"Y.T. : Have you been paying attention to the latest Treasury offerings? No one is showing up...how else are we going to rollover our debt except getting loans directly from other countries (and eventually the IMF...)"
Yeah, that's right. Nobody wants Treasurys. Nobody. How that squares with a 9 point rally today in the 30-year, I'll never figure out.
Y.T.,
Why would you think that with one day left before the contracts expire worthless?
"Have you been paying attention to the latest Treasury offerings? No one is showing up..."
CALPERs
OT--Slaying of 3 co-workers over bad real estate investments ? (From the San Jose Mercury News)
Last Friday in Sunnyvale, a employee was fired in the morning from a tech start-up and came back in the afternoon and shot to death 3 people, including the CEO. As it turns out, the employee had more than a DOZEN investment properties. (Which I assume are probably underwater in the current real estate market.)
Are we better of than we were in 1997?
how could it possibly be true that we need to borrow 300 billion from the arabs? Like I said above, this just doesn't seem like much money at this point
Well, I hate to second-guess it but maybe the Feds are just trying to keep the oil flowing for now.
I agree that it seems small in comparison but that's why I wrote the "voltage vs current" metaphor.
If we need that $300 billion to meet immediate bills because nobody will take dollars...
that would be really bad.
Morocco Bama writes:
90% of my mail these days is junk. One day last week, we filled up half a trash bag with the shit, and that was just one day's worth. We should be offered an opt out alternative, just like the do-not-call list. That one single act is what will make Dubya the best president in U.S. history.
Morocco Bama | 11.20.08 - 8:57 pm | #
Mail your requests for removal from mailing lists to;
Mail Preference Service
PO Box 9008
Farmingdale, NY 11735-9008
bond guy,
FED/Treasury is buying down the long end via the derivatives at MS/GS, Quanitative easing prior to the massive rollers across the spectrum.
so they're going to toss bales of dollars out of garbage trucks.
Yep. Make sure you check the tire pressure on your wheelbarrow this weekend. Much easier to push when the PSI is over 20.
How the mighty have fallen....down to $4.70 a share. What's there to sell? Lots of polluted assets? Who wants to buy a truck load of smelly garbage?
NewsDaily: Your best source for breaking news
WASHINGTON, Nov. 19, 2008 (Reuters) Chief executives of leading U.S. companies called for a fiscal stimulus package worth at least $300 billion and urged president-elect Barack Obama to swiftly name his economic team.
Dozens of chief executives met at the Wall Street Journal CEO Council event in Washington D.C. to identify what they think should be priorities for the Obama administration and the new Congress.
Wachovia Corp's Robert Steel and pension fund TIAA-CREF CEO Roger Ferguson were among those calling for a fiscal stimulus package to encourage consumer spending in the short term.
bond guy: So you're claiming the Treasury auctions over the past few weeks have been successful?
If what Tiberius posted is kosher (halal?), I have to say it looks like our Asian enablers did indeed deliver the Come To Jebus talk this weekend.
Elvis don't get me started on CalPERS.
Here's a jaw dropping Bloomberg article:
Calpers Sold Private-Equity Stakes Ahead of Crisis (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- California Public Employees Retirement System, the largest U.S. public pension fund, is back in the market for stakes in private-equity funds after selling $2 billion of partnerships earlier this year.
Its now a better time to be a buyer of secondary than a seller, Leon Shahinian, Calpers senior investment officer for alternative asset management, said in an interview. In the secondary market, investors trade interests in private-equity funds originally sold by buyout and venture capital firms.
Calpers sold stakes in 80 partnerships managed by 60 firms at the end of 2007, likely for higher prices than what theyd get now, Shahinian said.
bond guy,
How might we know when the swap demands are subsiding? What's the key factor forcing their purchase? If it makes a difference, I'm thinking of the long end
citizen energyecon writes:
Y.T.,
Why would you think that with one day left before the contracts expire worthless?
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 9:40 pm | #
I think I wasn't clear. I'm just saying I think you need to compare call volume to put volume. If they are order of magnitude similar it isn't bullish or bearish is it?
You must consider this inside your brains, because this is the most critical thing which I can say tonight: The business of banking is not a good business to be in, because the value of money is decaying, thus all debt related to lending is at risk, because it has less and less future value.
Broward Horne writes:
"Well, I hate to second-guess it but maybe the Feds are just trying to keep the oil flowing for now.
...
If we need that $300 billion to meet immediate bills because nobody will take dollars"
The price of oil is collapsing. The dollar is rising versus everything except the yen (Japan is not noted as a major oil exporter). Treasury yields have just screamed to record lows across most points of the curve.
And you're worried about the U.S. paying it's oil bills?
"Last Friday in Sunnyvale, a employee was fired in the morning from a tech start-up and came back in the afternoon and shot to death 3 people, including the CEO. As it turns out, the employee had more than a DOZEN investment properties. (Which I assume are probably underwater in the current real estate market.)
Dave of SV (formerly just Dave | 11.20.08 - 9:41 pm | #"
This is the ONE thing about this crash that scares me. Too many potential people with nothing to lose except hope.
mykilik,
They have in fact had heavy demand
Institutional - Latest Auction Data
For you gold bugs
(OK I bought some too).
Kitco (ww.kitco.com)
has got a fresh batch of gold.
They had gold eagles etc and they are gone. Only gold maples and bigger stuff.
That "U.S. seeks $300 billion from Gulf states"
thing sounds a bit like B.S. to me. Or maybe just some kind of confusion, like we asked them to do something that they think will cost billions...
Would like to see some corroboration from, you know, a news agency.
I'll throw in Sirius Satellite, goes back to 2000. Thats still runnin...
FDIC: FDIC Loan Modification Program Guide – "Mod in a Box"
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Loan Modification Program Overview - PDF (PDF Help)
Includes details including the philosophy, process, and promotion of the program.
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Includes marketing materials, workout program guidelines, and investor reporting tools for use in the program.
Marketing Materials
Counseling Compensation Agreement (Word Help)
Investor Reporting
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EHP: Heavy demand? How do you explain this then? http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2008/NCR_20081117_1.pdf
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Here is a link
Y.T.,
Gotcha - except that we see the price crater insanely the last week, we have one day left on the contract and what I don't don't know from that is whether the volume was contracts being opened or closed...except that the volume was more than an order of magnitude over the open interest at the $5 strike and more than twice at the $7.50 strike...whatever the put volume no way someone with deep pockets isn't going to try the pump tomorrow.
So they took 25bln 3 weeks ago in exchange for preferred stock and now they are worthless? Talk about adverse selection...
Hm. I wonder what offshort did those 25bil go....
Maybe this will shut Larry the fuck up about mustard seeds. I'm so fucking sick of mustard seeds. And, Jackie Fucking Gleason. Could you show your old fucking age anymore Larry?
bac-
Allianz Global Investors Of America L P Institution -1.73 % 2008-11-14 None - - - % Sold All -15,447,071 -100.00 %
ouch
Cracker writes:
bond guy,
FED/Treasury is buying down the long end via the derivatives at MS/GS,
Isn't that illegal?
It's running on an AFP byline. Here's a Google listing for the straight AFP article:
A href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hRHG8vaKg_32jRp6NiGAy6OBWYCg">link
Tiberius writes:
NewsDaily: Your best source for breaking news
WASHINGTON, Nov. 19, 2008 (Reuters) Chief executives of leading U.S. companies called for a fiscal stimulus package worth at least $300 billion and urged president-elect Barack Obama to swiftly name his economic team.
I think this time we better get two treasury secretaries. To much work for one.
And you're worried about the U.S. paying it's oil bills?
The rest of the world has been laying a foundation to abandon the dollar for several years. Virtually no Americans pay attention to this, however.
I am not worried about the US paying its bills.
I haven't loaned it any money.
This does not look like a successful auction either http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2008/R_20081113_2.pdf
It's running on an AFP byline. Here's a Google listing for the straight AFP article:
(oops:)
link
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"How might we know when the swap demands are subsiding? What's the key factor forcing their purchase? If it makes a difference, I'm thinking of the long end"
The long end (30Y) is where you see the imbalance most obviously.
When the 30-year swap spread is not going more negative by 5 basis points a day, it'll be a good sign that the demand has stopped. If I knew for sure when that will be, my employers would have to pay me a lot more money.
"Exotic product traders" (not as fun a group as exotic dancers, I'm afraid) have just discovered a massive need to hedge 30-year swap positions. I'd guess that only the swap dealers would have enough information on positioning to have an idea when things will return to something resembling normal. But one key to watch will be banks' year ends; people don't want to pile on risk positions ahead of year end. (Why get fired along with all the credit people?)
EHP,
Read that book when I was a freshman in college 24 years ago. At the time, I was science and math focused and hated the literature/composition classes, but I loved that novel so much that I pretty much read every Dostoevsky novel I could find in the college library.
I would also recommend reading The Brothers Karamazov. I liked that one even better.
From Indian Stock exchange releases. Look at the name of the entity that bough the shares (From Orient Global == TEMASEK)
Has JPM merged with BAnk of New York. It cant be a typo. Something is fishy here.
20/11/2008532544INDIABULLSTHE BANK OF NEW YORK JPMORGAN SECURITIES LTDB600000090.45
20/11/2008532544INDIABULLSORIENT GLOBAL CINNAMON CAPITAL LIMITEDS600000090.45
Link : Bulk Deals Segment
Hmmmm....when do defense contractors start going belly up?
If this market needs a reason to liquidate on volume to a bear market lower low below 7200, CITI's poorly prepared, ill-timed sidewalk sale may be it. C, for capitulation.
Yancey - IMO Brothers is much more complex and crushes all the others under its weight. Its like 800 pages and you wish it were bigger.
90% of my mail these days is junk. One day last week, we filled up half a trash bag with the shit, and that was just one day's worth. We should be offered an opt out alternative, just like the do-not-call list. That one single act is what will make Dubya the best president in U.S. history.
Morocco Bama | 11.20.08 - 8:57 pm | #
It's here and I've used it! How to get off mailing lists:
https://www.dmachoice.org/dma/member/home.action;jsessionid=ABCE10A5145CC654C14E9A83FD7E5D1C.tomcat2
mykillk,
I don't know what was behind that so I can only say that failure was an outlier. Other auctions both shorter and longer have had bids for 3-4x the cover.
Even the shortest term auctions have not been successful lately http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2008/R_20081118_1.pdf
two for one ladies night at nemos place
PS, I didn't read the original "300 billion of Arab money" link, I assumed it was valid.
I hope it isn't.
But here's an article which has received almost no airtime which bothers me -
Global creditors end U.S. spending spree - Washington Times
Something set off the crash. We're being told it's a derivatives failure but it could just as easily be China turning off the faucet.
Citi's capital postion is still strong, (as long as you don't count that $1 Trillion in garbage off-balance sheet mortgage assets).
It would seem like to me (and I am not a professional Treasuries guy at all) that the open market Treasuries are being targeted by the new quantitative easing policy, while the auction treasuries have little demand. Which one is real...which is being manipulated??
If it's UNSCHEDULED then how do we know it is scheduled for Friday?
THESE IDIOTS DON'T EVEN KNOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCHEDULED AND UNSCHEDULED!!
Whew.
Glad I got that off my chest.
citizen energyecon - yes it's all heading to VOOM.
VOOM is what's needed.
But the VOOM is the ultimate fixer-upper... so what does it look like?
If I knew I would know
And I don't frankly, so
I'm leaving here the cards of us here
And heisting myself to a location somewhere
Where no grickle grass grows
And everyone knows
The perils of circusing finanlcial flows
CC
Anonymous writes:
"Cracker writes:
FED/Treasury is buying down the long end via the derivatives at MS/GS,
Isn't that illegal?"
I would guess it would be illegal.
But it's also very unlikely - USD swap spreads are only doing the exact same thing as did EUR and GBP swap spreads a month ago. The same structured products were sold, generating the same need for everyone to hedge in the same way at the same time.
In other words, this was a purely private sector cluster^%&@.
Just a guess, but a long bank holiday is probably not far off now.
don't cry for me argentina.
bond guy,
Thanks. I'm just trying to understand what common factors are now creating a rush of covering on swaps. fwiw, bond girl last night posted about the continuing debacle of Japan's power reverse dual currency notes and their involvement in the swaps
FFDIC - did you see that they are going to halt construction on the Stoneleigh in uptown Dallas? Evidently the crane comes down next week with only 10 of 22 stories complete.
my apologies, Sirius goes back to a ruling in 1992 or 1993.
still runnin though, I'm the one who lost a decade already.
Thanks, Topher and FFDIC.
Paulson is a complete idiot. When he said he wouldn't draw down the other half of the TARP, he set it up for the hedgies to short the hell out of the financials to call his bluff. That guy is the worst treasury secretary imaginable.
I gotta go with nemo on the arab article. It definitely needs corroboration.
When markets falls 15% tomorrow, we will have the much needed corroboratio
mykillk,
Thanks for the links to the failed auctions. I had looked for them yesterday but only found the successful ones. It is hard to make sense of it all when there's so much extraordinary actio
NIKKEI down only 2%
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
Suckers.
EHP: It doesn't help that trying to understand bonds is like trying to understand chinese =]
That bailout thingie from last month seems to be doing swimmingly well.
"One of every 10 American homeowners has stopped making mortgage payments
Broward Horne | Homepage | 11.20.08 - 9:53 pm | #"
What!? Well I guess I would stop too, if I was underwater and knew I was not going to be evicted. Still that number is too big to be believable to me.
Mr. Sparkle, when you go to their website, it's as if it's a finished project? What gives?
"NIKKEI down only 2%"
And only down about 60% in the last 20 years or so. Pretty solid long-term investment.
If I remember right when we had the baking crisis in Finland in 1991 you could only withdraw 200 markka from the bank daily.
That's gonna be a hoot - I doubt New Yorkers are gonna be as calm about it.
Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
~~~~
Fraud changes everything ...
bond guy, you dont think the EU CB is buying all the Euro Sovereign bonds,
coordinated quantitative Sovereign Bond rally.
I like BWX,
or you can try,
PCY
emmerging market sovereign debt, anything under 17 good moneys.
frontline: the wall street fix: mr. weill goes to washington: the long demise of glass-steagall | PBS
mykillk,
I know what's going on here. Read the heading, those are the non competitive results. You have to view the full results (the competitive bidding by the primary dealers is used to set the price for non competitive and winning competitive bids)
Today's Auction Results
was the link I wanted to share before for what it's worth
FFDIC - did you see that they are going to halt construction on the Stoneleigh in uptown Dallas? Evidently the crane comes down next week with only 10 of 22 stories complete.
Mr. Sparkle | 11.20.08 - 9:57 pm | #
That was a bad deal to begin with Sparkles. Whassup in LH?
Anonymous writes:
NIKKEI down only 2%
.....yesterday it was down 7%........
"Paulson is a complete idiot. When he said he wouldn't draw down the other half of the TARP, he set it up for the hedgies to short the hell out of the financials to call his bluff. That guy is the worst treasury secretary imaginable."
I can not imagine he is that thick. Perhaps it was a strategy to fund GS to acquire all competitors at bargain prices.
Who's law was it about malice and stupidity?
Nikkei down 2% because they aer lunch now. The traders will be back after eating sushi and the market will duly go down.
Yes, I know the "300 billion from Arab states" story is on AFP. They in turn are citing some local Kuwaiti newspaper.
Forgive me if I am skeptical, but the only thing I trust less than the Western media is the Arab media.
Id go with blackhalo's theory. I think GS eats C. WFC is still choking one down, as is JPM. WTF is left that is hungry and unfed, ya know? Especially, one that is FOH (friends of Hank) which rules out MS, which, btw, you should be shorting the hell out of tomorrow. (Nope, I did not say that.)
mykillk writes:
"It would seem like to me (and I am not a professional Treasuries guy at all) that the open market Treasuries are being targeted by the new quantitative easing policy, while the auction treasuries have little demand. Which one is real...which is being manipulated??"
Auctions are inherently risky now. The primary dealers don't have the balance sheet or risk budget to ensure that all the auctions run smoothly. The auctions thus turn into a big flow that can push the market around.
In other words, the lousy auction generated volatility, but with yields now at record lows, it's safe to say the downward trend in rates was not broken by the auction results.
That said, there's nothing to say that trend won't change. To justify current pricing, you have to assume that the Authorities are largely impotent in the face of deflation.
As for quantitative easing, the whole point of the exercise is to lower bond yields. The Fed manipulates interest rates every working day of the year; that's their job description.
Wow, I didn't realize Staubach was acquired by JLL. I'm sure Gates got a handsome pay-out....but where to put it?
Citigroup's board of directors is scheduled to have a formal meeting Friday to discuss the options ...
~~~~
I'm guessing that's tomorrow ...
BofA? But they just bought up a big stake in a chinese bank...
bond guy: What is the size of money raised through auctions compared to money raised over open market treasury purchases?
you could say, co-ordinated Sovereign Quantitative Easing, but that sounds hard, and stupid. Like the papers out of the G20......its a "dont let the krill panic, keep the peace, and give me all your moeny momment"
they print to buy.
why the gold rally? hmmm?
buy they, I mena the Sovereign Central Banks....
good luck in Ecuador......
BofA, nope. They cant take C too, without a ginormous TARP extension, which Hankie just ruled out.
bond guy --
To justify current pricing, you have to assume that the Authorities are largely impotent in the face of deflation.
Has there ever been a case in history where this was true (with a fiat currency)?
Completely OT, but worth a laugh:
Visited the Wells Fargo ATM yesterday and they had a promotion for a 'free plush pony'.
Here's the tag line and link from their website:
"If you met with a banker in person to open your Wells Fargo Checking PackageSM, you'll receive a legendary Wells Fargo plush pony as a thank you."
https://www.wellsfargo.com/media/offers/holidaypack/overview.swf
Those of you looking for your pony, well... here's your chance.
Maybe the Citibank Board of Directors should consider a similar promotion at their unscheduled board meeting tomorrow?
EHP: The first link I posted was, as you said, a noncompetitive result. The 2nd two I posted (30 year and 30 day) were competitive
Why are these bozos waiting until tomorrow? They are paid tens of millions; could they not get their asses into the back seats of their Maybachs and drive to the crystal palace before it comes tumbling down?
My wife is working a night shift right now for 120 per hour - could these billionaires not skip one night of beauty sleep??
yes I speak texican mandarise with a french accent.
translatable but ya gotta ask biz ruins for the text for translation.
terrifyingly real.
Nemo,
Governments are generally powerless against deflation. The was the great depression, and the Japan ongoing thing
It's not that they're impotent, they're either too foolhardy or too timid in my opinio
Regulators Take Steps to Monitor Some Thrifts - WSJ.com
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is paying closer attention to roughly 100 community banks with large exposure to weak commercial real-estate loans, one in a series of moves by federal regulators to try to head off the next phase in the credit crisis.
Despite the $700 billion rescue plan that Treasury is using to pump capital into hundreds of banks and thrifts, regulators continue to mobilize initiatives to stabilize the banking sector. Federal officials have faced criticism in recent months about not doing enough to head off the financial crisis. Steps regulators are taking come ...
maybe they'll lose my mortgage in the coming implosion so I can stop paying them
So, does anyone here think that class warfare will ensue with what's happening in this economy?
RE: Treasury auctions. (@mykillk and @EHP)
The auctions are not too bad at all.
The key thing to look at on those pdf's is the "bid to cover" ratio. There doesn't seem to be (on those pages) the intended size. On the May '38's, it looks like the reoffer was 10MM, and there were over 20MM bid, for a b2c ratio of 2 (its at the bottom of the pdf page you link).
2 is about the long term b2c average, closer to 3 is really good, but for the 30 yr, 2 is a little low. Too bad for everyone who wasn't more aggressive in bidding for those, though: they're trading at 3.50 yield today (up over 7 on the day).
mykillk, from your 9:30pm link
Tendered / Accepted
Total $94,778,823,900 / $37,938,128,900
$2.5 bid for every $1 auctioned, where is the problem?
"EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Nemo,
Governments are generally powerless against deflation."
Someone in Zimbabwe seems to have figured out how to beat it.
Cracker(Unrated) writes:
yes I speak texican mandarise with a french accent.
translatable but ya gotta ask biz ruins for the text for translation.
What character set is that written in? The one that represents curses in old comic strips?
So, does anyone here think that class warfare will ensue with what's happening in this economy?
craigslist | 11.20.08 - 10:12 pm | #
Hell, we have class warfare almost daily here on CR after midnight. The lesbian and gay folks have been getting pretty beat up of late. Blacks not so much.
Hell yeah I'm gonna be in the class war; it's up to you if you want to join me.
The vote comes after the Fed Board hears proposals from Citicorp, J.P. Morgan and Bankers Trust advocating the loosening of Glass-Steagall restrictions to allow banks to handle several underwriting businesses, including commercial paper, municipal revenue bonds, and mortgage-backed securities. Thomas Theobald, then vice chairman of Citicorp, argues that three "outside checks" on corporate misbehavior had emerged since 1933: "a very effective" SEC; knowledgeable investors, and "very sophisticated" rating agencies. Volcker is unconvinced, and expresses his fear that lenders will recklessly lower loan standards in pursuit of lucrative securities offerings and market bad loans to the public
Byzantine_Ruins
just wanted to know who reads this shit. I read about 80% of it.
"So, does anyone here think that class warfare will ensue with what's happening in this economy?
craigslist | 11.20.08 - 10:12 pm | #"
If 60 min runs a story on bank bonus money, yeah...
bond guy,
Are you in a position to know that the swap/30yr situation is being caused by exotics? This just seems to be the new theory to me, because last week it was pensions.
I'd really like to know what the magnitude of their exposure is, because this was quite the movement today.
I bid $1 for Citi ...
craigslist(Unrated) writes:
So, does anyone here think that class warfare will ensue with what's happening in this economy?
4th grade v. 5th grade.
mp,
What are Conjure's thoughts on the passage below (from Wikipedia)? I know Misean expressed a similar sentiment in an earlier thread today - does Conjure agree with the Austrians? Thanks!
Economists of the Austrian school challenge the idea that Japan experienced a liquidity trap, instead contending it suffered from the bust portion of a business cycle brought on by monetary inflation, which could only be cured by allowing the bust to liquidate the malinvestments made during the boom. Austrians contend that busts are necessary corrections to booms and that artificial credit expansion or other government interference will only make the bust longer or delay an even bigger bust. Thus, they blame Japan's rigorous government interference in the market for causing the bust to last throughout the decade.
I thought a b2c in the 2 range was pretty low, but I was not aware that the the 'typical' b2c ratio is different between different term Treasuries as Austin Tex just pointed out
""a very effective" SEC; knowledgeable investors, and "very sophisticated" rating agencies."
Wow, three strikes and your BK.
Austin Tex,
Two heads, one mind.
At first I thought mykillk had found the auction where the Treasury had reduced the amount auctioned (sometime in the last month, or am I imagining it?) until I re-read it
Cracker(Unrated) writes:
Byzantine_Ruins
just wanted to know who reads this shit. I read about 80% of it.
Of the posts or of the gibberish bond auction results?
I'm at Citi in San Diego, and it looks like the Feds are moving in tomorrow at 5 PM
This sucker's going down.
Pope Had `Prophecy' of Market Collapse in 1985, Tremonti Says - Bloomberg.com
Pope Had `Prophecy' of Market Collapse in 1985, Tremonti Says
(Prays for Citi)
I reluctantly called for passage of the final bill because it did include such a channel, although it didnt require that Paulson use it. There were a lot of accusations against those of us who took that position claims that we were caving in, or trying to have it both ways. But the equity issue was crucial and may now be the thing that turns a useless plan into something that really does a lot of good.
PK 10/9/08
Dont panic about the stock market.
Panic about the credit markets instead. Interest rate on 3-month Treasuries at 0.02%; interest rate on high-yield (junk) bonds over 20%.
This is an economic emergency.
PK 11/20/08
Time to break some windows.
The value of money will be worth less in the future, because there will be fewer ways to make money, thus what you have today, is worth more today, than next year (like inflation) however, if you invest your money in something like a bond or equity, those will burn your cash faster than if you just hold your money (which is already decreasing in value). The thing that makes this more difficult, is the inability to make more money to pay for debt and this is why banks are in the wrong business, because they have the most to lose and no way to make money.
I walked by the 111th street Citi branch on the way to PinkBerry, but there was no apparent panic.
No more queues for $6 green tea yogurt ice cream either, though.
Êtes-vous la pratique de l'anglais ou l'espagnol
I dont do heirogliphics, except in texican. or old bruins.
So, does anyone here think that class warfare will ensue with what's happening in this economy?
craigslist
According to Buffett we already are in a class war, and I'm not winning.
Permutations - are you saying you WORK for citi in SD?
AlSeyassah is known for putting out planted material, I think running this with no corroboration was a lapse on the part of the AFP desk and you won't see anything further about it. But it isn't a reflection on the Arab media any more than the National Enquirer, say is a reflection on the state of Florida
mykillk,
30yr bonds are dominated by official purchases. It's a thinner/more expensive market for the Treasury. (most individuals do not want to be locked in to low yields for 30yrs, exposed to significant inflation risk, etc)
the short end is more popular for similar and other reasons
13 is the magick number...
A stock trading 13x less than it was 13 weeks ago, will kiss its own asshole in 13 days.
"but I was not aware that the the 'typical' b2c ratio is different between different term Treasuries"
Segmented markets make it so sometimes. The market for duration is different than the market for cash management paper. Also, 30 years are more scarce. They're used for such things (or at least used to, when the world was orderly) insurance companies backing annuities, structured settlements, etc.
I didn't mean to imply that there are hard and set "rules," just that 30 years typically have pretty good interest.
bond auction results?
Byzantine_Ruins
the only real favorable balance I saw in the bonds were the 2's in the Real, on Tuesday.
they are not fighting this war.
I'd do it Portuguese, but it would not be right.
"A stock trading 13x less than it was 13 weeks ago, will kiss its own asshole in 13 days.
John | 11.20.08 - 10:22 pm | # "
13 minute abs?
individuals do not want to be locked in to low yields for 30yrs, exposed to significant inflation risk, etc)
EHP,
unless they have a job and own a house. and then they welcome inflation.
No but I parley-vouz some Kraut.
Been translated into like five languages, but didn't supervise it. =)
well paulson waned of a crash and martial law. We got the crash whendoes martial law ensue?
As for cash losing value now oh contrare. As slong as excess resevres pile up at fed no such luck. The dollar is picking up puirchasing power at the moment as deflation sets in. Timing the inflationary burst is next to impossible but hard to see it happening fast with the current psychological dmaage that has been inflicted
Austin Tex,
Since you are here, I wanted to thank you for answering my questions about COMEX last week (or weekend, I forget which).
I agree FRED, we are in deflation.
when it ends, who knows, housing bubble ran from 03 to 06.
deflation runs 08 to 2011?
Thaksin:
"One who turns away from recklessness
Is like the moon emerging from the clouds
Her evil deeds give away to good and she
Is like the moon emerging from the clouds." -- Dhammapada 172-173
@EHP: Re "failed" auction. I don't know that there was an auction that didn't cover, but I think as the eye of the storm passed over in the fortnight before the election till about now, there were some pretty weak auctions.
But if they were weak now, with bills at 10bps and 30 yrs at 3.50 -all historical lows- and with A&M in the running for the national championship, and negative swap spreads, that all would add up to the Second Coming being right after Thanksgiving.
are you saying you WORK for citi in SD?
I think he's saying CR is a good place to start a rumor.
Wonder why the Chinese haven't dumped a few treasuries ... the prices are right ...
"A&M in the running for the national championship"
Wait, what?
Chuck Prince Citigroup CEO: When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, youve got to get up and dance. Were still dancing".
Or maybe Tech? I don't know. Some Texas team, I'm told. Have to admit, not much of a college football fan, and not from Texas. If they're not, then the Second Coming is evidently delayed once again.
Omaha Slim:
When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, youve got to get up and dance. Were still dancing".
"And when it does, we'll have ducked out early with two dames and left Pandit to get his ass beat in the parking lot by the greasers."
"Or is that my outloud voice?"
Aggies aint runnin jack shit, not even Nabors....
So far, I've seen about four theories on the swap issue: 1) pensions hedging who knows what, 2) investors hedging illiquid corporates, 3) yen plays, and then also saw this today on ACT:
"The 30 year swap rate is 2.84. It has dropped about 80 basis points on the day and is about 60 basis points rich to the 30 year Treasury.I just spoke with an options trader about this historic move. He said that there structured product trades buried in trading books all over the world which are melting. There is a massive short in the 30 year sector (in Treasury paper and in the swap market) which resulted from sales of cheap volatility. Some of these positions have been on the books of various entities for years and it is only recently that the chickens have come home to roost. Each time the spread turns more negative, that movement forces some one to receive in swaps to hedge there position. There are short the long end trades in every permutation and combination along the curve. The receiving creates a self fulfilling prophecy which compels someone else to receive. He had no opinion on when this would end."
(And of course some QE theories about.)
Whatever it is, it does get exhausting listening to the talking heads say there was a flight to quality across the curve. This stuff is unrelated to the short term. But it might make some of the fiscal strategies more affordable if it continues....
Lubbock, Red Raiders....
WEST TEXAS BORN AND BREAD CRACKER MUTHER FUCKER!
I live in Oregon now.
Citigroup Inc., which fell as much as 25 percent in New York trading today, is urging the Securities and Exchange Commission to revive a prohibition on short-selling financial stocks, according to a person familiar with the matter.
~~~~
Where is the uptick rule anyway ? Cox sucking his thumb or just part of the assault on equity?
Is it really that out of control, or are you just in a bad mode tonight CR?