anak remember the $200 oil? besides it might take minds away from what they might be doing. sort of like watch my right hand so i can sucker punch you with the left.
amazing
i really over the last year or so came to the conclusion that the opposite of what GS anounces should be taken into calculation (contrarian)
remeber oil price target 200 bucks
or gold over 1000
they are playing the market BUT
they trust in GS is lost through broken promises
just my personal two pfenning
For YLSP re Fast Eddie Rendell, Governor of Pennsylvania:
Yep, saw the paper this morning about the state of Pennsylvania offering $35M in loans to a friggin' department store.
And then checked out last night's posts and saw your comments.
Welcome to Pennsylvania.
This guy is a pol through and through, and works the angles every way that he can.
We're going to support a dying department store for crying out loud.
And PA isn't going to be rolling in dough either. Our elderly population is large and while they offer good programs to them, it's an expensive proposition.
Mebbe the payoff is an 80% off sale on clothing/goods to the elderly once a month with the transportation programs bringing the elderly en masse to the stores.
Unbelievable.
My one son wants to meet him so that when he's introduced, he can say "I think you're special, Ed."
I have at times accompanied a friend of mine who is a volunteer medical worker here in Phnom Penh out to the garbage dump - a virtual hell on earth - where women and children dig through the garbage looking for things of value. The problem is the garbage is already sifted through on the street before it's even picked up and delivered. What's left might bring these destitute people a buck at best. But now he says just in the last few months alone the take has been greatly reduced because the first sifters are digging even deeper.
So, this my friends is the effects of the American contagion.
Anecdotal datapoint.... I had a small question about the mechanics of trading something in my Fidelity account.... usually, the Instant Message feature is great... don't have to hold a phone to your ear, can have window open doing other things, very quick and responsive....
I typed in a question over ten minutes ago, a rep has yet to even enter my chat room..... they must be BUSY BUSY BUSY.... maybe Joe Sixpack is capitulating.
Can anyone explain what (and why) happened to the 30 year T-bond yesterday? Thanks!
CR: given recent export declines and GS prediction of 9% unemployment growth, any updates on your thoughts about where this recession in going? Thanks!
GS views, pretty much like other forecasts do not include a range of view-points. I'm looking at the numbers of people on street corners, the number of friends and family laid off, facing layoff, having hours reduced, or working without pay, and conclude, crudely of course, that the difference between this year and last leads to 8% unemployment very fast, and will likely lead to 10% unemployment by 4q 09 and will likely lead 12-15% unemployment by 2010/11.
The question is, my crude hairy-eyeball models do not account for acceleration. The Wile E. Coyote effect is poorly understood.
To put it another way, we could hit the full 15% in a single year, just like we could see financial institutions simply disappear, banks stop lending, and consumers stopped consuming.
Anything below 7% is pretty rosy, and is must be based on data that is 9 months old, derived from models which look back only 30 years.
From previous thread, and spent to much time writing it to allow it to die.
RE plug in cars.
Plug in only cars are a niche market pipe dream that will stay where it belongs, a fantasy of greying old hippies and crunchy Husseinamaniacs.
Wanna know why?? The freaking AC won't work in half the country. The hot half. Might as well drive a golf cart all summer. How do I know?? Spent many hours with the GM Impact at the APS shop in Phoenix in the early 90's. Impact as the proto that became the ev1. You know, the car that the kumbaya crowd complains was chopped up for "oil interests". It was chopped up because they had to install timers on the AC to start cooling the car while on the charger in the garage, and you "might" get to work comfortably. AC sucked so much juice, batteries would only last 1/2 to 3/4 of the time depending on outside temp. I was stranded many times in the summer. Piece of shit.
Unless we have broken the laws of thermodynamics, this whole plugin car thing will be a non starter with actual consumers. Draw a line east to west through St. Louis, and you won't sell anything south of that line after the first summer, guaranteed.
I can't wait to see the review on Edmunds. "Innovative, responsible, and looks great in the garage, but utterly unreliable technology rushed to market to satisfy the cravings of crunchy granola heads."
Mere 6.8?!? WTF they are smoking. Try 16.8. Pretty much every similar crisis in the world in the past (Nordics, Argentina) has resulted in 15-25 percent unemployment and tear gas and riot gear sales going up...
With half of stocks being driven by institutional investors, and the other half by robo-buying 401ks and Simple IRAs, we will see the roof and floor decompose into the stock-market sinkhole as the unemployment numbers radically accelerate upward. Less robo-buying without jobs, less capital going into markets, less institutional investors getting their fees--it will be vicious, as though it has not been already.
As an earlier observer noted, the bear has broken the leash...and that bear now has a taste for man-meat and is in pursuit.
I can see markets sizzling up like the electrocuted blackcat, smell of burning fur and all, but the cat will fall when the utility finally cuts off the power after the final delinquency notice has been served...
Over the years I've noticed that financial forecasting is much like weather forecasting (those people that live in areas that get frequent snowfall will be able to relate best):
Some source leaks a rumor that a big snow storm is coming.
Approx. 4-5 days are spent talking about the impending snowstorm, predicting estimated snowfall amounts and the areas that will be hit hardest and generally claiming that this might be the biggest storm since [insert time of last big storm that was so long ago that really old people have to be dragged on the news to talk about it].
Every media outlet stakes their guesses as to snowfall amounts based on complex computer models.
At some point it starts snowing.
(Insert news picture of guy in a parking lot with winter attire that confirms that it is, in fact, snowing - the financial equivalent is a picture of a trader on a trading floor)
At some point it stops snowing.
Measurements are taken and some people guessed right and some people guessed wrong as to the amount of the snowfall.
The people that guessed right claim it is because of superior intelligence.
The people that guessed wrong claim it is due to changing conditions.
No one consistently guesses right or wrong.
Eventually everyone digs out and goes on with their lives. The only question is how many times the government run snowplow plows in your driveway.
In a research note released this morning, Goldman Sachs slashed their Q4 GDP forecast from a decline of 3.5%, to a decline of 5% in Q4 (at an annual rate).
It would be interesting to see a chart (like the 4 bears chart below), that graphs previous recessions with month-over-month or quarter-over-quarter changes in real GDP from their beginning to their end. Anybody got a link to something like that?
senorito On-topico
ive been wondering about something about electric cars. how much are the batteries going to weigh. reason is we have a lot of bridges that cannot take a lot of weight.
dont make much sense to build something to save fosil fuels but have to drive way out of your way because your car is to heavy for the bridge down the road.
I was just trying to point the incredible velocity that an economic slowdown has on the world at large by focusing on something as lowly as garbage pickers...
I bet 98% of you have no idea what real poverty looks like - I don't mean the BS kind in the States either...
guess I'm just preaching to the wrong crowd... a crowd that knows the price of everything but the value of nothing! (thanks Oscar)
It would be interesting to see a chart (like the 4 bears chart below), that graphs previous recessions with month-over-month or quarter-over-quarter changes in real GDP from their beginning to their end. Anybody got a link to something like that?
REL, I like your snowstorm analogy. I was thinking of hurricane or tornado analogies. Living in the midwest, a lot of this seems like storm-chasing with Doppler.
Just an FYI, I got out of all Fidelity 3 years ago, because I felt that while the web-investment stuff was laid nicely, the investments themselves were under-performing, even in an irrational market. I know each fund has different mangers, etc...just get whatever is FDIC'd verses % yield at this point. My take is capital preservation verses yield at this point, unless of course your shorting.
looked at the latest quarterly holdings report (aug 2008) and i was not really thrilled with a lot of the holdings (small percentages of every melt down name you can think of)
Yes, of course we could stick to 10meters per second squared, factor-in friction and terminal velocity, but the question is does Mr. Coyote have an ACME rocket strapped to his back with the fuse about to hit the rocket fuel, and is MR. Coyote upside down headed for the ACME dynamite factory? It's just hard to tell these days.
looked at the latest quarterly holdings report (aug 2008) and i was not really thrilled with a lot of the holdings (small percentages of every melt down name you can think of)
Right.... I looked at the same thing.
Now, I can buy CDs though Fido. The advantage is, they still count as assets under management (so that I hit the thresholds for nice perks), it's point and click (don't have to write a check, open an account, track the CD).
The disadvantage is, they don't have any (or very few) of the "moral hazard" rate CDs (4%+) available for purchase through this program. All of the ones that are 6 months or less are in the 1.75 to 2.15 range, except for a GMAC 2.75.
I'm trying to decide if I can sleep at night with the 2.41% FDRXX yield, knowing I might wake up to a 2 or 3% haircut, or whether I should ladder/roll into the other sub 2.41 CDs being offered.
I'd fear going into the GMAC one, just because going through a Sheila-failure might tie up my bucks when I want to reload my shorts.
I have the solution for charging the electric cars. Car comes with a carport made of solar panels and wind turbine generators and solar furnaces and even a treadmill hooked up to a generator that the dogs run on. Every damn thing you can think of to put a charge in the batteries.
gabyjan - The energy density of the battery is the weak link.
You would need about 1650 pounds of NanoSafe batteries or 660 pounds of eestor batteries for a 100 mile range.
Ultra capacitors have gained about a million fold increase in energy density in the last 20 years. Another 500 fold increase will allow a 60 pound device to get you more than 100 miles. And UCs because they are electrostatic rather than electrochemical effectively last forever and are not affected by cold.
The opposite of the issue that Senerito mentioned above was staying warm in the winter up north in an electric car.
I'm still not sure if I understand why people are selling 30yr TIPS and buying 30yr bonds. Does this mean people are expecting 0% or less inflation for the next few years and thus the yield on plain bonds is higher? Or is it all about older swaps and hedges breaking down in this bizarre environment?
Eric writes:
Anyone got an opinion of the safety of Fidelity's Cash Reserves (FDRXX)?
I'm not worried. I've got 25% of cash in it the rest in CD's. But, their Bond desk cust. service does worry me. Wrong info telling me my deposits were insured. Fido will be a new beast in a year or two. Mutual Fund houses have had their run, it's now over.
The lithium batteries are not adequate for comparable gasoline cars. The focus of dollars on the trick-horse lithium is problematic. Capacitor technology will probably solve the problem long-term mixed with some unforeseen battery technology break-thru. In the meantime, the R&D needs to diversify. Keep in mind that most lithium comes from highly problematic places like Congo, and cobalt from China--both required for this generation of batteries. There is still doubt that the manufacture of the shear number of batteries can take place. All that being said, at least hybrid is a step in the right direction...bur all that being said, a traditional Civic get's damn near 40 mpg in real day-2-day use.
I'd count efficiencies getting us closer to real reduction in fossil fuels before technology shifts.
The enviro impact is real. but just wait when you have the same production problems that led to laptop fires happen with a large number of these type of larger batteries. Laptop fire looks good on youtube, car fire, not so much.
gabyjan writes:
its that damn trickle down theory just remember it work bad or good. i think better for bad.imo
gabyjan | 11.21.08 - 9:04 am |
It's trickle down alright. The problem this time is the bankers get .7 T dollars and by the time it trickles down, it turns from cash into a bill. A new spin on the old trickle down theory. The bankers get the cash and joe sixpack gets to pony up the cash (taxes) to pay. What a deal.
Now, where are my registration papers, I want to become a bank holding company - hey I bought C for a dollar, does that count?
Tax revenues are going look like the S&P. The fiscal deficit is going to EXPLODE upwards even more than it has done. The US is facing an inflection point of defaulting on its debt or printing to pay its debt. There is no in between.
So he's on the floor this morning with Mark and Erin .
Erin says..... you know, I'd like to see one of those studies
like they did during the bubble, how many magazine had
the word "bubble". I'd like to know how many magazines
know have the word bottom.
Art deadpans: "It depends on what kinds of magazines you're reading".
The Forrest Gump Explanation of the "mortgage mess"...:
Mortgage Backed Securities are like boxes of chocolates. Criminals on Wall Street stole a few chocolates from the boxes and replaced them with turds. Their criminal buddies at Standard & Poor rated these boxes AAA Investment Grade chocolates. These boxes were then sold all over the world to investors. Eventually somebody bites into a turd and discovers the crime. Suddenly nobody trusts American chocolates anymore worldwide.
Hank Paulson now wants the American taxpayers to buy up and hold all these boxes of turd-infested chocolates for $700 billion dollars until the market for turds returns to normal. Meanwhile, Hank's buddies, the Wall Street criminals who stole all the good chocolates are not being investigated, arrested or indicted.
Mama always said: 'Sniff the chocolates first, Forrest'.
I know the focus is either default or massive inflation via printing, but this is trivial to unemployment. You can survive debt-default and you can survive hyper-inflation, but it's the unemployment that nation-states rarely survive if it's sever and prolonged.
If this happens, remember bread, butter, bacon and beans.
I will be promising all 4 if you elect me, but I'll have to ask of you a few unsavory favors in return...
We're leaving tomorrow for a week of driving around the midwest visiting family. I'd like to get some recommendations for reading material, in particular economic history and anything along the lines of The Federal Reserve Explained for Dummies. Based on previous comments, I've already reserved a copy of Galbreath's "The Great Crash."
The green technology thing is Washington's new answer to growth after the financials collapsed.
We are at 1980 again, with a stalled economy, and flailing about for ways to kick start profit growth. Last time it was outsourcing manufacturing and financial speculation.
Duke of Con Dao(Excellent) writes: I bet 98% of you have no idea what real poverty looks like - I don't mean the BS kind in the States either...
I'm reading. Unless you want research assignments on street-level economics, tho, I am just gonna read. As Blueridge says, what do I say to someone reporting from the garbage dump in Phnom Pehn?
( Pay no attention to the trader behind the curtain)
From the New York Post:
CNBC - which loves bubbles more than Lawrence Welk ever did - invited a Chicago trader named Scott Nations to the show.
Nations then shook things up by saying, straight out, that the US government, through the Plunge Protection Team, manipulated Standard & Poor's 500 index on Oct. 10 and Oct. 28.
That was right before the election, in case you've forgotten, which brings into question whether there was something undemocratic going on.
The hosts of the show went apoplectic with one - sadly, one who should know better - calling the accusations "Internet rumors."
One viewer even noticed that his screen went blank for five seconds in the middle of the exchange, although CNBC said - if in fact it happened - that the dead air was due to technical difficulties and not censoring.
It's surprising that CNBC is so clueless, especially now when Washington is openly considering government rescues of auto, insurance, financial companies and anyone else that tells a convincing enough sob story.
You know where I stand on this. Once someone takes a really close look at what's been going on this'll be the biggest financial story ever.
Here are the facts: Ronald Reagan signed an executive order during his last year in office that created the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, which the Washington Post later nicknamed the "Plunge Protection Team."
In 1989, Robert Heller, who had just left the Federal Reserve Board, proposed that the government should rig the stock market in times of imminent disaster.
George Stephanopoulos, a top aide to former President Bill Clinton, said the government used this power in 1998 during the meltdown caused by the failure of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. And I spoke with a high-ranking official at the Fed about intervention when the markets cratered right after 9/11.
As soon as CNBC gets a clue, I'll let you know.
Fuck GS. They are collapse control central. Those fuckers are flying around in their corporate jets with our tax dollars, while the rest of us are scrambling around for jobs. They should be shot down, but it won't happen until Americans are starving and thrown into the streets to freeze. The power structure is the problem, and it must be removed, but Americans are too cozy and fat to care. Just keep stuffing your faces while "your government":
*lets in more illegals
*grants them Amnesty
*more Muslim refugees who hate America
*more H-1B visas that take our best jobs
*outsource more jobs to India
*more jobs to China
*sends billions to Africa for a 100% preventable disease called AIDS
*allows the drug company hegemony
Hold onto your little theories that globalism is good and here to stay all the way down to zero.
As always, my best 'fuck off' to lawyerrat and Byz and the rest of the 1st amendment-violating fascist trolls.
RE: Green Tech as the savior -
I work in the CRE business and I don't see it. The problem is that the biggest benefit of green/sustainable technology (from a profit perspective) is the PR value. Most of the energy-saving ideas either require enormous timelines to realize any gain, or are not driven by technologies that will create a profit center for their purveyors.
Dear Prince Alwaleed,
Regarding the Somali pirates, under normal circumstances I would suggest storming the vessel & killing every one of those sons of bitches, but in this case I suggest you fork over your Citi shares to the nice pirates apologize for taking so long. Try not to act giddy.
"I bet 98% of you have no idea what real poverty looks like - I don't mean the BS kind in the States either..."
I was in the Marines in the late 80's. I got to travel to all the far east garden spots. My younger brother was Army Special Ops for 12 years. He spent time in even more lovely locations getting shot at...
We both just giggle when people bitch about having it rough in the US.
The next two decades will see a world living with the daily threat of nuclear war, environmental catastrophe and the decline of America as the dominant global power, according to a frighteningly bleak assessment by the US intelligence community.
The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons, said the report by the National Intelligence Council, a body of analysts from across the US intelligence community.
The analysts said that the report had been prepared in time for Barack Obamas entry into the Oval office on January 20, where he will be faced with some of the greatest challenges of any newly elected US president.
Times Archive
1948: American hopes and fears: Deep desire for world peace
American hopes and fears: Threats to cherished way of life
Related Links
Iran 'has enough uranium to build a bomb'
Syrians pin hopes on Obama presidency
Russia to deploy missiles in Europe
The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes, the 121-page assessment said.
The analysts draw attention to an already escalating nuclear arms race in the Middle East and anticipate that a growing number of rogue states will be prepared to share their destructive technology with terror groups. Over the next 15-20 years reactions to the decisions Iran makes about its nuclear programme could cause a number of regional states to intensify these efforts and consider actively pursuing nuclear weapons, the report Global Trends 2025 said. This will add a new and more dangerous dimension to what is likely to be increasing competition for influence within the region, it said.
The spread of nuclear capabilities will raise questions about the ability of weak states to safeguard them, it added. If the number of nuclear-capable states increases, so will the number of countries potentially willing to provide nuclear assistance to other countries or to terrorists.
The report said that global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources. Citing a British study, it said that climate change could force up to 200 million people to migrate to more temperate zones. Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions, it said.
The international system will be almost unrecognisable by 2025, owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a transfer of wealth from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors. Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States relative strength even in the military realm will decline and US leverage will become more strained.
Global power will be multipolar with the rise of India and China, and the Korean peninsula will be unified in some form. Turning to the current financial situation, the analysts say that the financial crisis on Wall Street is the beginning of a global economic rebalancing.
The US dollars role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a first among equals.
Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation, but we cannot rule out a 19th-century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries. The report, based on a global survey of experts and trends, was more pessimistic about Americas global status than previous outlooks prepared every four years. It said that outcomes will depend in part on the actions of political leaders. The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks, it said.
The analysts also give warning that the kind of organised crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country, and that countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves ungoverned, as states wither away under pressure from security threats and diminishing resources..
The US intelligence community expects that terrorism would survive until 2025, but in slightly different form, suggesting that alQaedas terrorist wave might be breaking up. AlQaedas inability to attract broad-based support might cause it to decay sooner than people think, it said.
On a positive note it added that an alternative to oil might be in place by 2025
...Criminals on Wall Street stole a few chocolates from the boxes and replaced them with turds. Their criminal buddies at Standard & Poor rated these boxes AAA Investment Grade chocolates. These boxes were then sold all over the world to investors. Eventually somebody bites into a turd and discovers the crime. Suddenly nobody trusts American chocolates anymore worldwide...
Instead of sneaking a turd into the box here and there I liken it more to increasing the turd % in the recipe. They were selling so well, they started increasing the turd% and at some point they started to taste bad to a few sensitive individuals. The trouble was, they told everybody else.
"We both just giggle when people bitch about having it rough in the US."
So true....what is going to feel like a Depression for us is going to be simply a return to conditions that, historically and geographically speaking, are still not nearly as bad as it can get.
The only problem is that we have become so fat and soft here and our belief in our own specialness has become so pervasive that I still think that it will result in some type of societal breakdown.
A possible reason for the big falls in bank stocks is fallout from the huge bond swings. Those swings are going to have a big casino effect, especially if they're driven by forced unwinds, and some agents are probably facing bankruptcy. The banks may have their own money at stake, and even if not casino effect bankruptcies will hurt them; they lose when the losers go BK but get no benefit from the winners.
The banks may have their own money at stake, and even if not casino effect bankruptcies will hurt them; they lose when the losers go BK but get no benefit from the winners.
Mr T Wrote:
"The only problem is that we have become so fat and soft here and our belief in our own specialness has become so pervasive that I still think that it will result in some type of societal breakdown."
I agree. And when the control in any relationship adjusts, there is great opportunity for profit. Just have to remember there is always at least one Warlord stronger than you, and then you Sun Tzu the hell up.
Talked to a friend of mine who is a rocket scientist (a real one, not a joke). Even though I can understand what the "process/thing" accomplishes, I have no idea how it works. Anyway, he proceeds to tell me that a small group of them (including a NASA scientist) have developed a small-scale eletrical generation plant that takes industrial processing emission output, and turns it into electricty at nearly zero generation cost. Uses commercially available convex solar mirrors as well (don't ask, I'm not smart enough).
I'd be skeptical if it weren't for the fact that I've known him for 10 years, and his IQ is probably up around 210. Anyway, it is somehow hydrogen-based from what I can understand, and unfortunately, they are looking to raise capital in this environment (the real reason he called).
Point being, there is pent-up demand of great technologies waiting to come into the markets. I'm encouraging my daughter to take an internship with them since she has a penchant for engineering, math, and conservation.
I think of the good that can come from building alternative energy solutions(jobs, clean energy, knowledge - just to name a few). Folks like these are the reason this country reinvents itself and pulls through.
Angry Saver writes:
GS is no different than any other IB. Glorified salesman. Inflation gatherers. Inflation grifters. NO added value to society. Negative actually.
Angry Saver | 11.21.08 - 10:19 am | #
It is a tragedy that Ron Paul is not as attractive a communicator as necessary.
We need effective communicators to explain this (inflation gatherers, no added value) to the masses; they'll listen when things get bad enough, and clean house. The alternative is to passively aquiesce to dictatorship we'll never shake off. That can't be right.
We are going to need every energy addition we can develop, the sooner the better - hope it will be enough - as well as dramatically improving energy efficiency.
I have also built a so-called water booster (Smack version), and I have used it as a torch. I call it my water-torch. I haven't used it to boost mileage yet, but I personally do know one person who has and it works with very little water gas (3 amps at 12 volts = 4 mpg improvement on a Ford Ranger, clean oil, cool exhaust). His is an example of less is better.
What I can say about it is that the temperature of the flame when it's in contact with matter of any kind is extremely hot. I have melted graphite with it, which has a melting point around 6600 F. It actually sublimes, but you can see little balls of molten graphite on the surface. It melts rocks like butter, but only exactly where the flame touches, as if there is a reaction with the material that is different than you get with other flames. Without divulging my identity, I have a college degree in physics and two other advanced graduate degrees, and I am not aware of an explanation for it outside of a new theory of quantum mechanics (Randall Mills).
It's harder for the CIA to suppress this technology with the internet to spread it around so far and fast. They are basically suppressing the biggest discoveries, but they will all get out eventually.
Keep in mind the demographic changes that have happened since the last time we saw 9% unemployment. A 9% unemployment figure today would mean a much worse overall economy than it did last time. Back then the economy had to generate massive numbers of new jobs just to keep unemployment from going up. Women were still just entering the work force (or at least the process was far from complete) and boomers were looking for their first jobs. Now the labor force participation rate by women is about the same as for men, and boomers are more likely to be leaving the workforce through retirement (well, in theory anyways, but who has anything to retire on these days).
Art deadpans: "It depends on what kinds of magazines you're reading".
Mr.Cashin rules.
Anonymous | 11.21.08 - 9:44 am | #
yeah and right after they had some guy on talking about how his bottom was violated. I was wondering if he got off the subway in the West Village instead of Wall St. He would probably enjoy the West village style bottom violation than the Wall St. style
We both just giggle when people bitch about having it rough in the US.
Chris
Cobradriver | 11.21.08 - 10:03 am | #
having spent a fair amount of time in East Africa and India, I tend to agree. However, I can still have sympathy for someone with a migrane headache even though I know there are people with terminal cancer. Yes folks, there is real pain in America, even if it pales in comparision to the really poor of the world. Come to Dayton OH and you will see it. Its not Calcutta, but it is still real pain.
Keep in mind the demographic changes that have happened since the last time we saw 9% unemployment.
My ex-home state (SC) just hit 8% for October. And idiotically, a couple of years ago, they passed a tax reform package that increased discretionary sales taxes to ease property taxes.
It's going to be an FUGLY Christmas for their revenues. No pot of gold at the end of this retail season...
marketwarnings.com has just warned in real-time. The stock market bottom has come. Day is nov 21, 2008, time is 11:07AM. Event is the stock market bottom. A day and time that will stay in history of stock market for a long time. Do not later tell you were not informed. And remember the state of your current mind (if you are reading this on November 21 AM), which is likely telling you something like "this is another piece of worthless thing". Fine to think that now. But keep it in mind in the days, and weeks of the future.
Real-time bottom call details are below (11:07AM, November 21, 2008). The bottom!
marketwarnings.com has just warned in real-time. The stock market bottom has come. Day is nov 21, 2008, time is 11:07AM. Event is the stock market bottom. A day and time that will stay in history of stock market for a long time. Do not later tell you were not informed. And remember the state of your current mind (if you are reading this on November 21 AM), which is likely telling you something like "this is another piece of worthless thing". Fine to think that now. But keep it in mind in the days, and weeks of the future.
Real-time bottom call details are below (11:07AM, November 21, 2008). The bottom!
With a handle like yours, you might as well know the geography of buggery before you make smarmy jokes about my kind. Most of the "West Village style bottom violation" whereof you speak moved north to Chelsea nearly 20 years ago; and over the past decade, largely out of Chelsea to midtown and the outer boroughs.
Nearly all of the gays you'll now see in the village are day-tripping black and latino youths from Jersey, and a few homeless. Most of the gay bars are hone, and most residents of the coops, apartments and townhomes are hets. Then again, there's plenty of bottom violation among that crowd, too, apparently. I know; I've seen the movies!
I have bought CDs in the past from Fidelity and it works well, but you are right, the current offerings are not great. Right now I have some in FDRXX, FDLXX and some in FMOXX.
I looked at the same issue, since I was holding about 25% in Fidelity Spartan Intermediate Treasuries. After the flight to treasuries yesterday, I moved about 15% of that into their TIPS Inflation-Protected fund (this should be considered long-term) and 10% each into their GNMA fund. For straight cash, their Treasury money-market would be the safest, although the yield has collapsed in step with Treasuries (.6% yield). If you're stashing short-term, that the safest, although with the Fed likely to cut again, GNMA might work shortterm (no more than 3-6 months, but that's a bet).
This describes my strategy; it isn't advice and entails risks of a different sort than the holdings in Fidelity Cash Reserves.
Keep in mind the demographic changes that have happened since the last time we saw 9% unemployment. A 9% unemployment figure today would mean a much worse overall economy than it did last time. Back then the economy had to generate massive numbers of new jobs just to keep unemployment from going up. Women were still just entering the work force (or at least the process was far from complete) and boomers were looking for their first jobs. Now the labor force participation rate by women is about the same as for men...
I agree, we need to get the women out of the workforce, at least while we endure this current economic crisis.
First? Doomed?
Nemo!?!
meh
first?
CR,
Do you think that unemployment will breach 8%? Apologies if you've already answered this.
how the f is Citi going tits up a good thing for the market
really? I thought 09 was gonna be the year everything got better...
Goldman Sucks sees a 5% annual decline. These mother f**kers need to be taken out and shot. Everyone of them, from the receptionist to the CEO.
/rant off
Nostrovia,
unemployment has already breached 8%, gov numbers use hedonics and are a lie.
I see a smile of satisfaction on Roubini's face. It says "I told you so".
Does anyone know if TBT is a good buy?
Peter Schiff Sucks
I am out of TBT, now
Well, it would seem I was pretty much on target saying -3.5.
Months ago I said 9% - some laughed. I am now revising mine upwards - 14% for CA and the rust belt; and 11% as a national average.
Will C go private?
how the f is Citi going tits up a good thing for the market
think of all the bits and pieces on sale for nothing, or next to.
Does this mean the rally is cancelled?
For all those who are unemployed this is the "just awful" scenario.
Does this mean the rally is cancelled?
It's bad news..... RALLY CAPS ON!!
Sometimes I think GS does it on purpose.
anak remember the $200 oil? besides it might take minds away from what they might be doing. sort of like watch my right hand so i can sucker punch you with the left.
amazing
i really over the last year or so came to the conclusion that the opposite of what GS anounces should be taken into calculation (contrarian)
remeber oil price target 200 bucks
or gold over 1000
they are playing the market BUT
they trust in GS is lost through broken promises
just my personal two pfenning
anak remember the $200 oil?
They just publicly recanted on that. I wonder if that means they're buying.
Did you guys see the price of gold etc....? I put this at the end of the last thread:
Live Market Quotes
So a forecast is the etching and "research note" is where they let their hair down and sketch?
The traders must have a ball with this sort of stuff.
For YLSP re Fast Eddie Rendell, Governor of Pennsylvania:
Yep, saw the paper this morning about the state of Pennsylvania offering $35M in loans to a friggin' department store.
And then checked out last night's posts and saw your comments.
Welcome to Pennsylvania.
This guy is a pol through and through, and works the angles every way that he can.
We're going to support a dying department store for crying out loud.
And PA isn't going to be rolling in dough either. Our elderly population is large and while they offer good programs to them, it's an expensive proposition.
Mebbe the payoff is an 80% off sale on clothing/goods to the elderly once a month with the transportation programs bringing the elderly en masse to the stores.
Unbelievable.
My one son wants to meet him so that when he's introduced, he can say "I think you're special, Ed."
He's the cynical one.
They just publicly recanted on that. I wonder if that means they're buying
natch.
And to think the media used to like to call AG "maestro", LOL.
So how are the futures?
I have at times accompanied a friend of mine who is a volunteer medical worker here in Phnom Penh out to the garbage dump - a virtual hell on earth - where women and children dig through the garbage looking for things of value. The problem is the garbage is already sifted through on the street before it's even picked up and delivered. What's left might bring these destitute people a buck at best. But now he says just in the last few months alone the take has been greatly reduced because the first sifters are digging even deeper.
So, this my friends is the effects of the American contagion.
Ruh roh........
Anecdotal datapoint.... I had a small question about the mechanics of trading something in my Fidelity account.... usually, the Instant Message feature is great... don't have to hold a phone to your ear, can have window open doing other things, very quick and responsive....
I typed in a question over ten minutes ago, a rep has yet to even enter my chat room..... they must be BUSY BUSY BUSY.... maybe Joe Sixpack is capitulating.
I'll bet by the end of next year that unemployment is over 10%. We'll see who's right, GS or me.
Bear breaks leash, calves endangered...
Maybe today will be fun after all.
C
Welcome to The Great Recession!
Can anyone explain what (and why) happened to the 30 year T-bond yesterday? Thanks!
CR: given recent export declines and GS prediction of 9% unemployment growth, any updates on your thoughts about where this recession in going? Thanks!
its that damn trickle down theory just remember it work bad or good. i think better for bad.imo
GS views, pretty much like other forecasts do not include a range of view-points. I'm looking at the numbers of people on street corners, the number of friends and family laid off, facing layoff, having hours reduced, or working without pay, and conclude, crudely of course, that the difference between this year and last leads to 8% unemployment very fast, and will likely lead to 10% unemployment by 4q 09 and will likely lead 12-15% unemployment by 2010/11.
The question is, my crude hairy-eyeball models do not account for acceleration. The Wile E. Coyote effect is poorly understood.
To put it another way, we could hit the full 15% in a single year, just like we could see financial institutions simply disappear, banks stop lending, and consumers stopped consuming.
Anything below 7% is pretty rosy, and is must be based on data that is 9 months old, derived from models which look back only 30 years.
/enough
Good thing I still have all those vinyl records. Now I just need to find an old-timey wind-up Victrola.
Time to rally.
But why Goldman Sachs analyst that did not see this coming (or cheated about it) would be right this time?
From previous thread, and spent to much time writing it to allow it to die.
RE plug in cars.
Plug in only cars are a niche market pipe dream that will stay where it belongs, a fantasy of greying old hippies and crunchy Husseinamaniacs.
Wanna know why?? The freaking AC won't work in half the country. The hot half. Might as well drive a golf cart all summer. How do I know?? Spent many hours with the GM Impact at the APS shop in Phoenix in the early 90's. Impact as the proto that became the ev1. You know, the car that the kumbaya crowd complains was chopped up for "oil interests". It was chopped up because they had to install timers on the AC to start cooling the car while on the charger in the garage, and you "might" get to work comfortably. AC sucked so much juice, batteries would only last 1/2 to 3/4 of the time depending on outside temp. I was stranded many times in the summer. Piece of shit.
Unless we have broken the laws of thermodynamics, this whole plugin car thing will be a non starter with actual consumers. Draw a line east to west through St. Louis, and you won't sell anything south of that line after the first summer, guaranteed.
I can't wait to see the review on Edmunds. "Innovative, responsible, and looks great in the garage, but utterly unreliable technology rushed to market to satisfy the cravings of crunchy granola heads."
Uhm.
The new comment ingoing rate is considerably slowing in CR.
Bottom is in?
PSgirl writes:
Did you guys see the price of gold etc....?
Flight to quality?
Mere 6.8?!? WTF they are smoking. Try 16.8. Pretty much every similar crisis in the world in the past (Nordics, Argentina) has resulted in 15-25 percent unemployment and tear gas and riot gear sales going up...
With half of stocks being driven by institutional investors, and the other half by robo-buying 401ks and Simple IRAs, we will see the roof and floor decompose into the stock-market sinkhole as the unemployment numbers radically accelerate upward. Less robo-buying without jobs, less capital going into markets, less institutional investors getting their fees--it will be vicious, as though it has not been already.
As an earlier observer noted, the bear has broken the leash...and that bear now has a taste for man-meat and is in pursuit.
I can see markets sizzling up like the electrocuted blackcat, smell of burning fur and all, but the cat will fall when the utility finally cuts off the power after the final delinquency notice has been served...
Over the years I've noticed that financial forecasting is much like weather forecasting (those people that live in areas that get frequent snowfall will be able to relate best):
Some source leaks a rumor that a big snow storm is coming.
Approx. 4-5 days are spent talking about the impending snowstorm, predicting estimated snowfall amounts and the areas that will be hit hardest and generally claiming that this might be the biggest storm since [insert time of last big storm that was so long ago that really old people have to be dragged on the news to talk about it].
Every media outlet stakes their guesses as to snowfall amounts based on complex computer models.
At some point it starts snowing.
(Insert news picture of guy in a parking lot with winter attire that confirms that it is, in fact, snowing - the financial equivalent is a picture of a trader on a trading floor)
At some point it stops snowing.
Measurements are taken and some people guessed right and some people guessed wrong as to the amount of the snowfall.
The people that guessed right claim it is because of superior intelligence.
The people that guessed wrong claim it is due to changing conditions.
No one consistently guesses right or wrong.
Eventually everyone digs out and goes on with their lives. The only question is how many times the government run snowplow plows in your driveway.
In a research note released this morning, Goldman Sachs slashed their Q4 GDP forecast from a decline of 3.5%, to a decline of 5% in Q4 (at an annual rate).
It would be interesting to see a chart (like the 4 bears chart below), that graphs previous recessions with month-over-month or quarter-over-quarter changes in real GDP from their beginning to their end. Anybody got a link to something like that?
senorito On-topico
ive been wondering about something about electric cars. how much are the batteries going to weigh. reason is we have a lot of bridges that cannot take a lot of weight.
dont make much sense to build something to save fosil fuels but have to drive way out of your way because your car is to heavy for the bridge down the road.
I'm just trying to figure out who I should short now. GS only makes this call if they're already in a position to profit off it.
Anyone got an opinion of the safety of Fidelity's Cash Reserves (FDRXX)?
It's where the majority of my free cash is sitting, yielding 2.41%.
FDLXX, the Treasury fund, is 0.61%.
Would I be better off just putting it some rolling shortterm CDs?
I would assume Fido is very loath to break-the-buck, but.............
Whew, what a relief! Only 9% unemployment. No wonder we are rallying across the world.
I was just trying to point the incredible velocity that an economic slowdown has on the world at large by focusing on something as lowly as garbage pickers...
I bet 98% of you have no idea what real poverty looks like - I don't mean the BS kind in the States either...
guess I'm just preaching to the wrong crowd... a crowd that knows the price of everything but the value of nothing! (thanks Oscar)
Doc at the Radar Station writes
It would be interesting to see a chart (like the 4 bears chart below), that graphs previous recessions with month-over-month or quarter-over-quarter changes in real GDP from their beginning to their end. Anybody got a link to something like that?
That would be nice!
Eric, recall that Fido has already been to the MM window...
me @ 9:20
What's GOLDSUCKS forecast for the weather and what's their EarthQuake predictons....
Talk about GOLDENBALLS>>>>
REL, I like your snowstorm analogy. I was thinking of hurricane or tornado analogies. Living in the midwest, a lot of this seems like storm-chasing with Doppler.
Eric,
Just an FYI, I got out of all Fidelity 3 years ago, because I felt that while the web-investment stuff was laid nicely, the investments themselves were under-performing, even in an irrational market. I know each fund has different mangers, etc...just get whatever is FDIC'd verses % yield at this point. My take is capital preservation verses yield at this point, unless of course your shorting.
The question is, my crude hairy-eyeball models do not account for acceleration. The Wile E. Coyote effect is poorly understood.
32 feet per second squared ought to be about right...
i too am very curious about FDRXX.
looked at the latest quarterly holdings report (aug 2008) and i was not really thrilled with a lot of the holdings (small percentages of every melt down name you can think of)
I think fido is also part of treasury MM protection plan even though they saw no reason to be part of the program.
Treasury MM protection plan ends next month[?]]. All my 401K is in a fido MM market account. Some of the funds holding include repo with Lehman.
kurtboy,
Yes, of course we could stick to 10meters per second squared, factor-in friction and terminal velocity, but the question is does Mr. Coyote have an ACME rocket strapped to his back with the fuse about to hit the rocket fuel, and is MR. Coyote upside down headed for the ACME dynamite factory? It's just hard to tell these days.
Is this guy mad?
YouTube - Max Keiser - Aljazeera English News - 16 November 2008
i too am very curious about FDRXX.
looked at the latest quarterly holdings report (aug 2008) and i was not really thrilled with a lot of the holdings (small percentages of every melt down name you can think of)
Right.... I looked at the same thing.
Now, I can buy CDs though Fido. The advantage is, they still count as assets under management (so that I hit the thresholds for nice perks), it's point and click (don't have to write a check, open an account, track the CD).
The disadvantage is, they don't have any (or very few) of the "moral hazard" rate CDs (4%+) available for purchase through this program. All of the ones that are 6 months or less are in the 1.75 to 2.15 range, except for a GMAC 2.75.
I'm trying to decide if I can sleep at night with the 2.41% FDRXX yield, knowing I might wake up to a 2 or 3% haircut, or whether I should ladder/roll into the other sub 2.41 CDs being offered.
I'd fear going into the GMAC one, just because going through a Sheila-failure might tie up my bucks when I want to reload my shorts.
I have the solution for charging the electric cars. Car comes with a carport made of solar panels and wind turbine generators and solar furnaces and even a treadmill hooked up to a generator that the dogs run on. Every damn thing you can think of to put a charge in the batteries.
Government Sachs is calling for 2009 S&P earnings to be $65.
Overlaying this earnings forecast with previous bear market bottoms results in:
1974 low of 7.9 P/E returns (2008/2009)+ S&P low of 514.
1982 low of 6.6 P/E returns (2008/2009)+ S&P low of 429.
1932 low of 5.6 P/E returns (2008/2009)+ S&P low of 364.
gabyjan - The energy density of the battery is the weak link.
You would need about 1650 pounds of NanoSafe batteries or 660 pounds of eestor batteries for a 100 mile range.
Ultra capacitors have gained about a million fold increase in energy density in the last 20 years. Another 500 fold increase will allow a 60 pound device to get you more than 100 miles. And UCs because they are electrostatic rather than electrochemical effectively last forever and are not affected by cold.
The opposite of the issue that Senerito mentioned above was staying warm in the winter up north in an electric car.
I'm still not sure if I understand why people are selling 30yr TIPS and buying 30yr bonds. Does this mean people are expecting 0% or less inflation for the next few years and thus the yield on plain bonds is higher? Or is it all about older swaps and hedges breaking down in this bizarre environment?
sam dimond - your treadmill car is looking for investors. See:
Rants: Consider This...The Stupidest Exercise Machine You'll Ever See | Burbia.com
Eric writes:
Anyone got an opinion of the safety of Fidelity's Cash Reserves (FDRXX)?
I'm not worried. I've got 25% of cash in it the rest in CD's. But, their Bond desk cust. service does worry me. Wrong info telling me my deposits were insured. Fido will be a new beast in a year or two. Mutual Fund houses have had their run, it's now over.
Just a little side-note on the electrics.
The lithium batteries are not adequate for comparable gasoline cars. The focus of dollars on the trick-horse lithium is problematic. Capacitor technology will probably solve the problem long-term mixed with some unforeseen battery technology break-thru. In the meantime, the R&D needs to diversify. Keep in mind that most lithium comes from highly problematic places like Congo, and cobalt from China--both required for this generation of batteries. There is still doubt that the manufacture of the shear number of batteries can take place. All that being said, at least hybrid is a step in the right direction...bur all that being said, a traditional Civic get's damn near 40 mpg in real day-2-day use.
I'd count efficiencies getting us closer to real reduction in fossil fuels before technology shifts.
Your MM funds are temporarily insured via the Paulson save back in early Oct.
I think they become uninsured in December.
Senorito On-Topico,
LOL and exactly. SoCal leftists are pretty stupid when it comes to actual technology.
Then there's the whole enviro impact of the batteries.
LOLz,
Nostrovia,
assume rally position pleeese
I have most of my money is a Schwab MM fund. Anyone have an opinion on its safety?
Misean,
The enviro impact is real. but just wait when you have the same production problems that led to laptop fires happen with a large number of these type of larger batteries. Laptop fire looks good on youtube, car fire, not so much.
gabyjan writes:
its that damn trickle down theory just remember it work bad or good. i think better for bad.imo
gabyjan | 11.21.08 - 9:04 am |
It's trickle down alright. The problem this time is the bankers get .7 T dollars and by the time it trickles down, it turns from cash into a bill. A new spin on the old trickle down theory. The bankers get the cash and joe sixpack gets to pony up the cash (taxes) to pay. What a deal.
Now, where are my registration papers, I want to become a bank holding company - hey I bought C for a dollar, does that count?
Your MM funds are temporarily insured via the Paulson save back in early Oct.
I think they become uninsured in December.
No, mine are not, having not had a position in them on the magic date (September 17th, I believe).
Tax revenues are going look like the S&P. The fiscal deficit is going to EXPLODE upwards even more than it has done. The US is facing an inflection point of defaulting on its debt or printing to pay its debt. There is no in between.
Art Cashin makes a funny.....
So he's on the floor this morning with Mark and Erin .
Erin says..... you know, I'd like to see one of those studies
like they did during the bubble, how many magazine had
the word "bubble". I'd like to know how many magazines
know have the word bottom.
Art deadpans: "It depends on what kinds of magazines you're reading".
Eric, I am in the same situation.
Re: MM insurance, I believe this is only for deposits that were in the particular mm fund on a date in September that I can't remember.
I have bought CDs in the past from Fidelity and it works well, but you are right, the current offerings are not great.
Right now I have some in FDRXX, FDLXX and some in FMOXX.
What do you do about fido 401K MM investments?
I call up fidelity and they say the contract with my company doesn't allow me to move my money out of 401k.
Art deadpans: "It depends on what kinds of magazines you're reading".
Mr.Cashin rules.
What do you do about fido 401K MM investments?
Does your co have a Brokeragelink option? If so you can set up a Fido brokerage account, link it to the 401k, and put whatever you want in the 401k.
-Jaso
The Forrest Gump Explanation of the "mortgage mess"...:
Mortgage Backed Securities are like boxes of chocolates. Criminals on Wall Street stole a few chocolates from the boxes and replaced them with turds. Their criminal buddies at Standard & Poor rated these boxes AAA Investment Grade chocolates. These boxes were then sold all over the world to investors. Eventually somebody bites into a turd and discovers the crime. Suddenly nobody trusts American chocolates anymore worldwide.
Hank Paulson now wants the American taxpayers to buy up and hold all these boxes of turd-infested chocolates for $700 billion dollars until the market for turds returns to normal. Meanwhile, Hank's buddies, the Wall Street criminals who stole all the good chocolates are not being investigated, arrested or indicted.
Mama always said: 'Sniff the chocolates first, Forrest'.
japanese inventor has a built car running on just water. probably ala stan meyer. I have built an electrolyzer myself; it's fun to burn water!
I know the focus is either default or massive inflation via printing, but this is trivial to unemployment. You can survive debt-default and you can survive hyper-inflation, but it's the unemployment that nation-states rarely survive if it's sever and prolonged.
If this happens, remember bread, butter, bacon and beans.
I will be promising all 4 if you elect me, but I'll have to ask of you a few unsavory favors in return...
/swaps black hat for brown shirt...
I'm still waiting for oil to hit their $200 price target. END SARCASM for GS! People actually pay for these clowns twith their money.
We're leaving tomorrow for a week of driving around the midwest visiting family. I'd like to get some recommendations for reading material, in particular economic history and anything along the lines of The Federal Reserve Explained for Dummies. Based on previous comments, I've already reserved a copy of Galbreath's "The Great Crash."
TIA
Duke,
Keep posting from Vietnam. I am reading, but don't really know what to say.
The green technology thing is Washington's new answer to growth after the financials collapsed.
We are at 1980 again, with a stalled economy, and flailing about for ways to kick start profit growth. Last time it was outsourcing manufacturing and financial speculation.
Duke of Con Dao(Excellent) writes:
I bet 98% of you have no idea what real poverty looks like - I don't mean the BS kind in the States either...
I'm reading. Unless you want research assignments on street-level economics, tho, I am just gonna read. As Blueridge says, what do I say to someone reporting from the garbage dump in Phnom Pehn?
Isn't Phnom Penh in Cambodia, not Vietnam?
( Pay no attention to the trader behind the curtain)
From the New York Post:
CNBC - which loves bubbles more than Lawrence Welk ever did - invited a Chicago trader named Scott Nations to the show.
Nations then shook things up by saying, straight out, that the US government, through the Plunge Protection Team, manipulated Standard & Poor's 500 index on Oct. 10 and Oct. 28.
That was right before the election, in case you've forgotten, which brings into question whether there was something undemocratic going on.
The hosts of the show went apoplectic with one - sadly, one who should know better - calling the accusations "Internet rumors."
One viewer even noticed that his screen went blank for five seconds in the middle of the exchange, although CNBC said - if in fact it happened - that the dead air was due to technical difficulties and not censoring.
It's surprising that CNBC is so clueless, especially now when Washington is openly considering government rescues of auto, insurance, financial companies and anyone else that tells a convincing enough sob story.
You know where I stand on this. Once someone takes a really close look at what's been going on this'll be the biggest financial story ever.
Here are the facts: Ronald Reagan signed an executive order during his last year in office that created the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, which the Washington Post later nicknamed the "Plunge Protection Team."
In 1989, Robert Heller, who had just left the Federal Reserve Board, proposed that the government should rig the stock market in times of imminent disaster.
George Stephanopoulos, a top aide to former President Bill Clinton, said the government used this power in 1998 during the meltdown caused by the failure of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. And I spoke with a high-ranking official at the Fed about intervention when the markets cratered right after 9/11.
As soon as CNBC gets a clue, I'll let you know.
"the wizard of Oz"
Obama team looking to provide DIP for Auto BK's:
Obama Team Said to Explore `Prepack' Auto Bankruptcy (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
Fuck GS. They are collapse control central. Those fuckers are flying around in their corporate jets with our tax dollars, while the rest of us are scrambling around for jobs. They should be shot down, but it won't happen until Americans are starving and thrown into the streets to freeze. The power structure is the problem, and it must be removed, but Americans are too cozy and fat to care. Just keep stuffing your faces while "your government":
*lets in more illegals
*grants them Amnesty
*more Muslim refugees who hate America
*more H-1B visas that take our best jobs
*outsource more jobs to India
*more jobs to China
*sends billions to Africa for a 100% preventable disease called AIDS
*allows the drug company hegemony
Hold onto your little theories that globalism is good and here to stay all the way down to zero.
As always, my best 'fuck off' to lawyerrat and Byz and the rest of the 1st amendment-violating fascist trolls.
Th Evil short sellers are doing C again.
END SARCASM for GS! People actually pay for these clowns with their money. - SPECTRE of Deflation
Ultimately we all end up paying do we not?
Well DK started off, somewhat promising.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
For the last time DK, i did not know she was your wife.
Peace out.
hiker,
David C. Korten?, When Corporations Rule the World
not sure on the author's spelling
fantastic book, 20+ years old, calls all this....
"japanese inventor has a built car running on just water"
My old neighbor had a restored 1916? stanley steamer that did the same thing that he used to drive around town and run errands in.
LOL!!!
C is going down..
Mr T,
Stanley Steamer did not run on water, it ran on the fuel that heated the water.
RE: Green Tech as the savior -
I work in the CRE business and I don't see it. The problem is that the biggest benefit of green/sustainable technology (from a profit perspective) is the PR value. Most of the energy-saving ideas either require enormous timelines to realize any gain, or are not driven by technologies that will create a profit center for their purveyors.
Dear Prince Alwaleed,
Regarding the Somali pirates, under normal circumstances I would suggest storming the vessel & killing every one of those sons of bitches, but in this case I suggest you fork over your Citi shares to the nice pirates apologize for taking so long. Try not to act giddy.
"I bet 98% of you have no idea what real poverty looks like - I don't mean the BS kind in the States either..."
I was in the Marines in the late 80's. I got to travel to all the far east garden spots. My younger brother was Army Special Ops for 12 years. He spent time in even more lovely locations getting shot at...
We both just giggle when people bitch about having it rough in the US.
Chris
From timesonline.co.uk
The next two decades will see a world living with the daily threat of nuclear war, environmental catastrophe and the decline of America as the dominant global power, according to a frighteningly bleak assessment by the US intelligence community.
The world of the near future will be subject to an increased likelihood of conflict over resources, including food and water, and will be haunted by the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons, said the report by the National Intelligence Council, a body of analysts from across the US intelligence community.
The analysts said that the report had been prepared in time for Barack Obamas entry into the Oval office on January 20, where he will be faced with some of the greatest challenges of any newly elected US president.
Times Archive
1948: American hopes and fears: Deep desire for world peace
American hopes and fears: Threats to cherished way of life
Related Links
Iran 'has enough uranium to build a bomb'
Syrians pin hopes on Obama presidency
Russia to deploy missiles in Europe
The likelihood that nuclear weapons will be used will increase with expanded access to technology and a widening range of options for limited strikes, the 121-page assessment said.
The analysts draw attention to an already escalating nuclear arms race in the Middle East and anticipate that a growing number of rogue states will be prepared to share their destructive technology with terror groups. Over the next 15-20 years reactions to the decisions Iran makes about its nuclear programme could cause a number of regional states to intensify these efforts and consider actively pursuing nuclear weapons, the report Global Trends 2025 said. This will add a new and more dangerous dimension to what is likely to be increasing competition for influence within the region, it said.
The spread of nuclear capabilities will raise questions about the ability of weak states to safeguard them, it added. If the number of nuclear-capable states increases, so will the number of countries potentially willing to provide nuclear assistance to other countries or to terrorists.
The report said that global warming will aggravate the scarcity of water, food and energy resources. Citing a British study, it said that climate change could force up to 200 million people to migrate to more temperate zones. Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios, and the impact of climate change, could further exacerbate tensions, it said.
The international system will be almost unrecognisable by 2025, owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalising economy, a transfer of wealth from West to East, and the growing influence of nonstate actors. Although the United States is likely to remain the single most powerful actor, the United States relative strength even in the military realm will decline and US leverage will become more strained.
Global power will be multipolar with the rise of India and China, and the Korean peninsula will be unified in some form. Turning to the current financial situation, the analysts say that the financial crisis on Wall Street is the beginning of a global economic rebalancing.
The US dollars role as the major world currency will weaken to the point where it becomes a first among equals.
Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation, but we cannot rule out a 19th-century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries. The report, based on a global survey of experts and trends, was more pessimistic about Americas global status than previous outlooks prepared every four years. It said that outcomes will depend in part on the actions of political leaders. The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks, it said.
The analysts also give warning that the kind of organised crime plaguing Russia could eventually take over the government of an Eastern or Central European country, and that countries in Africa and South Asia may find themselves ungoverned, as states wither away under pressure from security threats and diminishing resources..
The US intelligence community expects that terrorism would survive until 2025, but in slightly different form, suggesting that alQaedas terrorist wave might be breaking up. AlQaedas inability to attract broad-based support might cause it to decay sooner than people think, it said.
On a positive note it added that an alternative to oil might be in place by 2025
DK Writes:
As always, my best 'fuck off' to lawyerrat and Byz and the rest of the 1st amendment-violating fascist trolls.
Hee.
My grandma
And your grandma
was sittin' by the fire
My grandma
tole your grandma
I'm gonna set your flag on fire.
VENTURE CAPITALISTS INVEST IN SOMALI PIRATES
The Daily Mash - VENTURE CAPITALISTS INVEST IN SOMALI PIRATES
Trying to figure out the best move I can make right now.
We own two homes, one extremely underwater (60%) and the other only slightly underwater. Only 25% of our money is left in equities in a 401(k).
Just sit tight for a few more years. Is there something I should be selling and/or something I should be buying?
Illegal Immigrant writes:
For the last time DK, i did not know she was your wife.
Peace out.
Illegal Immigrant | 11.21.08 - 10:00 am | #
If you want it, you will have to fight for it.
U.S. Intelligence - is this the same group that prepared the WMD reports before the Iraq war?
...Criminals on Wall Street stole a few chocolates from the boxes and replaced them with turds. Their criminal buddies at Standard & Poor rated these boxes AAA Investment Grade chocolates. These boxes were then sold all over the world to investors. Eventually somebody bites into a turd and discovers the crime. Suddenly nobody trusts American chocolates anymore worldwide...
Instead of sneaking a turd into the box here and there I liken it more to increasing the turd % in the recipe. They were selling so well, they started increasing the turd% and at some point they started to taste bad to a few sensitive individuals. The trouble was, they told everybody else.
U.S. Intelligence - pretty an oxymoron nowadays.
Crispy & Cole:
Thanks for the Bloomie link. Don't think they'll call it the 'burnside plan', though. ;0)
C near a "3" handle...
here we go again. Crash helmets on.
where is Frasier?!
pizza party at C, start up the Bair watch.
ruh roh i see red on DOW
c 3.85
C near a "3" handle...
Guess the reports of C's demise have not been over-estimated. That's going to be one hell of a shotgun marriage.
It is fitting that the driving force behind Gramm-Leach-Bliley is finally seeing its comeuppance...
energyecon - he is waiting for he final hour...he only has a few more rounds in him,
"We both just giggle when people bitch about having it rough in the US."
So true....what is going to feel like a Depression for us is going to be simply a return to conditions that, historically and geographically speaking, are still not nearly as bad as it can get.
The only problem is that we have become so fat and soft here and our belief in our own specialness has become so pervasive that I still think that it will result in some type of societal breakdown.
What's the problem with JPM today? They, too, are getting crushed.
As always, my best 'fuck off' to lawyerrat and Byz and the rest of the 1st amendment-violating fascist trolls.
Re-read the 1st amendment.
Nothing in there about people filtering their own messages. It's purely government based censorship that is outlawed.
HTH. HAND.
DAWG, was it that list?
c 3.85
That's why those bastards raised my interest rate last week!
Buy C at $1.00 convert to a bank holding company and hit HP for 25B from TARP. What could possibly go wrong.....
Burnside,
What list? The list of TARP fund money, indicating they needed just about the most.
Possibly?
Please don't feed the troll.
c&c:
In fairness, you need a reverse frazier call. suggestions.
Al Michaels "miracle on ice"
Havlicek steals the ball
flutie to phelan?
I'm super long BAC, my last lot at 11.02
DAWG: yup.
GM from -12% to -1.39%
Pure gambling
Who's the monkey buying?
Does Buffet not like his children or something?
Sure seems he's pissing away there inheritance
Ciao
MS
These GS dingbats can't see the problems on mainstreet until AFTER it is too late.
GS is no different than any other IB. Glorified salesman. Inflation gatherers. Inflation grifters. NO added value to society. Negative actually.
How can anyone take GS seriously. No wonder we are in such a poor financial shape as a country.
What a sham.
A possible reason for the big falls in bank stocks is fallout from the huge bond swings. Those swings are going to have a big casino effect, especially if they're driven by forced unwinds, and some agents are probably facing bankruptcy. The banks may have their own money at stake, and even if not casino effect bankruptcies will hurt them; they lose when the losers go BK but get no benefit from the winners.
Roll Me Over, Lay Me Down And Do It Again.
Fair Economist,
That's an accurate assessment IMO:
The banks may have their own money at stake, and even if not casino effect bankruptcies will hurt them; they lose when the losers go BK but get no benefit from the winners.
/echo
Mr T Wrote:
"The only problem is that we have become so fat and soft here and our belief in our own specialness has become so pervasive that I still think that it will result in some type of societal breakdown."
I agree. And when the control in any relationship adjusts, there is great opportunity for profit. Just have to remember there is always at least one Warlord stronger than you, and then you Sun Tzu the hell up.
REL:
Talked to a friend of mine who is a rocket scientist (a real one, not a joke). Even though I can understand what the "process/thing" accomplishes, I have no idea how it works. Anyway, he proceeds to tell me that a small group of them (including a NASA scientist) have developed a small-scale eletrical generation plant that takes industrial processing emission output, and turns it into electricty at nearly zero generation cost. Uses commercially available convex solar mirrors as well (don't ask, I'm not smart enough).
I'd be skeptical if it weren't for the fact that I've known him for 10 years, and his IQ is probably up around 210. Anyway, it is somehow hydrogen-based from what I can understand, and unfortunately, they are looking to raise capital in this environment (the real reason he called).
Point being, there is pent-up demand of great technologies waiting to come into the markets. I'm encouraging my daughter to take an internship with them since she has a penchant for engineering, math, and conservation.
I think of the good that can come from building alternative energy solutions(jobs, clean energy, knowledge - just to name a few). Folks like these are the reason this country reinvents itself and pulls through.
dd
Angry Saver writes:
GS is no different than any other IB. Glorified salesman. Inflation gatherers. Inflation grifters. NO added value to society. Negative actually.
Angry Saver | 11.21.08 - 10:19 am | #
It is a tragedy that Ron Paul is not as attractive a communicator as necessary.
We need effective communicators to explain this (inflation gatherers, no added value) to the masses; they'll listen when things get bad enough, and clean house. The alternative is to passively aquiesce to dictatorship we'll never shake off. That can't be right.
dd,
We are going to need every energy addition we can develop, the sooner the better - hope it will be enough - as well as dramatically improving energy efficiency.
Citigroup's Pandit: We Will Not Sell Smith Barney
Therein lies the problem.
I have also built a so-called water booster (Smack version), and I have used it as a torch. I call it my water-torch. I haven't used it to boost mileage yet, but I personally do know one person who has and it works with very little water gas (3 amps at 12 volts = 4 mpg improvement on a Ford Ranger, clean oil, cool exhaust). His is an example of less is better.
What I can say about it is that the temperature of the flame when it's in contact with matter of any kind is extremely hot. I have melted graphite with it, which has a melting point around 6600 F. It actually sublimes, but you can see little balls of molten graphite on the surface. It melts rocks like butter, but only exactly where the flame touches, as if there is a reaction with the material that is different than you get with other flames. Without divulging my identity, I have a college degree in physics and two other advanced graduate degrees, and I am not aware of an explanation for it outside of a new theory of quantum mechanics (Randall Mills).
It's harder for the CIA to suppress this technology with the internet to spread it around so far and fast. They are basically suppressing the biggest discoveries, but they will all get out eventually.
On this topic, you need to check out this graph.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FiNhXIv5StE/SSapM83DVvI/AAAAAAAADeg/ZH_Kihz_MtQ/s1600-h/FederalReceiptsOutlaysInterest.png
Keep in mind the demographic changes that have happened since the last time we saw 9% unemployment. A 9% unemployment figure today would mean a much worse overall economy than it did last time. Back then the economy had to generate massive numbers of new jobs just to keep unemployment from going up. Women were still just entering the work force (or at least the process was far from complete) and boomers were looking for their first jobs. Now the labor force participation rate by women is about the same as for men, and boomers are more likely to be leaving the workforce through retirement (well, in theory anyways, but who has anything to retire on these days).
Anonymous writes:
Art deadpans: "It depends on what kinds of magazines you're reading".
Mr.Cashin rules.
Anonymous | 11.21.08 - 9:44 am | #
yeah and right after they had some guy on talking about how his bottom was violated. I was wondering if he got off the subway in the West Village instead of Wall St. He would probably enjoy the West village style bottom violation than the Wall St. style
Idiot! Sold my WFC puts on Wednesday in anticipation of an OpEx pop.
We both just giggle when people bitch about having it rough in the US.
Chris
Cobradriver | 11.21.08 - 10:03 am | #
having spent a fair amount of time in East Africa and India, I tend to agree. However, I can still have sympathy for someone with a migrane headache even though I know there are people with terminal cancer. Yes folks, there is real pain in America, even if it pales in comparision to the really poor of the world. Come to Dayton OH and you will see it. Its not Calcutta, but it is still real pain.
Keep in mind the demographic changes that have happened since the last time we saw 9% unemployment.
My ex-home state (SC) just hit 8% for October. And idiotically, a couple of years ago, they passed a tax reform package that increased discretionary sales taxes to ease property taxes.
It's going to be an FUGLY Christmas for their revenues. No pot of gold at the end of this retail season...
FDIC May Exclude Shortest-Term Loans From Debt Plan (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
FDIC May Exclude Shortest-Term Loans From Debt Plan (Update1)
marketwarnings.com has just warned in real-time. The stock market bottom has come. Day is nov 21, 2008, time is 11:07AM. Event is the stock market bottom. A day and time that will stay in history of stock market for a long time. Do not later tell you were not informed. And remember the state of your current mind (if you are reading this on November 21 AM), which is likely telling you something like "this is another piece of worthless thing". Fine to think that now. But keep it in mind in the days, and weeks of the future.
Real-time bottom call details are below (11:07AM, November 21, 2008). The bottom!
Forgot to add URL. It is added in post below.
marketwarnings.com has just warned in real-time. The stock market bottom has come. Day is nov 21, 2008, time is 11:07AM. Event is the stock market bottom. A day and time that will stay in history of stock market for a long time. Do not later tell you were not informed. And remember the state of your current mind (if you are reading this on November 21 AM), which is likely telling you something like "this is another piece of worthless thing". Fine to think that now. But keep it in mind in the days, and weeks of the future.
Real-time bottom call details are below (11:07AM, November 21, 2008). The bottom!
MarketWarnings: dow spx stock market bottom November 21, 2008
Dirk van Dijk:
With a handle like yours, you might as well know the geography of buggery before you make smarmy jokes about my kind. Most of the "West Village style bottom violation" whereof you speak moved north to Chelsea nearly 20 years ago; and over the past decade, largely out of Chelsea to midtown and the outer boroughs.
Nearly all of the gays you'll now see in the village are day-tripping black and latino youths from Jersey, and a few homeless. Most of the gay bars are hone, and most residents of the coops, apartments and townhomes are hets. Then again, there's plenty of bottom violation among that crowd, too, apparently. I know; I've seen the movies!
PSgirl writes:
I have bought CDs in the past from Fidelity and it works well, but you are right, the current offerings are not great. Right now I have some in FDRXX, FDLXX and some in FMOXX.
I looked at the same issue, since I was holding about 25% in Fidelity Spartan Intermediate Treasuries. After the flight to treasuries yesterday, I moved about 15% of that into their TIPS Inflation-Protected fund (this should be considered long-term) and 10% each into their GNMA fund. For straight cash, their Treasury money-market would be the safest, although the yield has collapsed in step with Treasuries (.6% yield). If you're stashing short-term, that the safest, although with the Fed likely to cut again, GNMA might work shortterm (no more than 3-6 months, but that's a bet).
This describes my strategy; it isn't advice and entails risks of a different sort than the holdings in Fidelity Cash Reserves.
$35T loss. We're half way there.
Dirk van Dijk writes:
Keep in mind the demographic changes that have happened since the last time we saw 9% unemployment. A 9% unemployment figure today would mean a much worse overall economy than it did last time. Back then the economy had to generate massive numbers of new jobs just to keep unemployment from going up. Women were still just entering the work force (or at least the process was far from complete) and boomers were looking for their first jobs. Now the labor force participation rate by women is about the same as for men...
I agree, we need to get the women out of the workforce, at least while we endure this current economic crisis.
I guess that means we are finally out of this thing. Remember the $200 crude prediction?
Out like a bang, this will heal us. I found this really interesting:
"Obama motivates D.C. to initiate new lower and middle class bailout"
Obama's Taxpayer Bailout