It's really much worse than the number since most of that foreclosure stuff is concentrated in very specific markets. Most non foreclosure markets must be absolutely dead.
Is this the cry baby thread or about new home sales.
Bear market rally people - calm down and stop crying. No wonder short cover rallies are so vicious....
President-elect Barack Obama's 3 million campaign volunteers got re-enlistment notices this week. Campaign manager David Plouffe, in a mass e-mail sent Wednesday to former workers, asked how much time they can spare for four missions integral to Obama's effort to transform his victory into a broader political movement.
The volunteers' options are, Plouffe wrote: Campaign for progressive state and local candidates; Undertake grassroots local efforts to advance Obama's agenda; Train others in Obama's organizing techniques; Focus on local political issues.
They'll be getting an e-mail shortly... "you donated in small amounts to Obama, now buy our debt in small amounts you too can own America... YES WE CAN! YES WE CAN! You to"
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment that you expect the inventory to fall. How does historic inventory compare with the same time line of unemployment. Hairy eyeball suggests that unemployment peaking will coincide with inventory peaking, and I don't believe unemployment has peaked. I think we'll see another peak, and another record.
Paulson may tap rescue fund, roll out new program: report
Paulson may tap rescue fund, roll out new program: report
| Reuters
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is considering tapping the second half of the government's $700 billion financial-industry rescue fund, and rolling out new programs in response to worsening market conditions, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.
Among other things, Paulson is seeking ways to make it easier for households to borrow money and also looking for ways to reduce the burden of foreclosure on homeowners, the paper said.
The Treasury could not immediately be reached for comment on the report.
Americans need more debt like another hole in the head
blackhat writes:
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment that you expect the inventory to fall.
There's "inventory" and then there's "inventory." Inventory is the new CPI. CR is dutifuly reporting the inventory as calculated. It is up to the careful reader to extrapolate the shadow inventory. We have a huge backlog of deferred foreclosures and REOs not yet on market. We have metered listings for tract homes where a few on the MLS represent dozens in the development. Bigger than all these are the demographic holdouts. Estates and imminent retirees and other lifestyle changing events are all holding on waiting for the market to turn. I can sell you dozens of homes in my small neighborhood that are not currently "for sale" if you are willing to pay the prices of last year. Hundreds, possibly including mine, if you are able to close at peak prices.
(sorry for the OT. but there's still a lot of misdirected anger)
I don't get the anger, resentment and indigence from you people.
It's not like the govt is spending your future tax money.
Borkafatty got it right "The US Tax Payer is broke...and from the looks of things soon to be UN-employed...."
It's not like the govt is spending any of our money, since it's very obvious from anyone who cares to look, that the shrinking future tax base of the USA can never support this ballooning debt that the bailouts are creating.
What's happening is that the USA govt is borrowing from the world capital system -- as long as there's someone out there willing to lend us money. This is the final jig before USA declares bankruptcy; a final transfer of wealth if you would.
Not unlike someone doing a final maxxing of credit cards, withdrawing all those cash-deposit checks from CC companies, and maxxing out their loans; months before declaring bankruptcy.
This is a cause to celebrate. In a twisted way, this will actually speed up the final implosion and hence recovery. I WANT govt to spend more, lets earmark 20T for this and that and more. Do a final wealth "absorption" from the rest of the world govt who're still stupid enough to lend us money.
Like I said, I see these as perfectly rational things to be doing at this point.
Good points Rob Dawg. I understand where CR's numbers come from and shadow inventory. I guess my point is even the official (skewed) inventory numbers ought to tick up again as unemployment ticks up.
However, I'm open to alternate universe economics and have been for quite some time...
HC, you're right, the American people can't pay for this, someone has to, and that someone will be the rest of the world;
'cept the rest of the world won't want to pay after a while, the only solution for that dilemma is world war, and the American people will be conditioned to want one of those before too many years have passed.
We'll start the next world war and we will lose that one, big time.
I understand your point to start again from ground zero after the big-one drops and wipes out the system...simplistic, but easier to imagine.
...however, my narrow interest are survival for my family and for myself...and frankly, post-nation/state collapse is a poor guarantee of the privilege of living. In fact, I'm not eager to live on my bullets and bourbon, although prepared to do so.
No, actually we're worse than the Germans, in that their enemies in WW1 made them pay through the nose, and they couldn't pay for that, so they felt they had to start a world war.
Nobody made us pay for anything, we just did that all on our own.
That's exactly the problem with your points of view:
You think that there's still something that can be done to prevent that future.
Because of that belief, you're in constant anger and resentment why the govt is not doing the right things. Why they're not preventing that future from happening.
Come to the true realization that we're already too far gone; already past event horizon trying to escape from a black hole gravity; then you'll realize that all the current action is GOOD
I say, bail out everything, bail out GM, bail out homeowners, send out stimulus, bail while there's still money left to bail out stuff.
blackhat writes:
Good points Rob Dawg. I understand where CR's numbers come from and shadow inventory. I guess my point is even the official (skewed) inventory numbers ought to tick up again as unemployment ticks up.
However, I'm open to alternate universe economics and have been for quite some time...
Dont forget that the moratorium on foreclosures is going to decrease supply.
HC, you misunderstand my basic attitude methinks. But there isn't really any "reset." High-born crooks will still be running everything in the New World Order.
If our country is going to act like this can I choose not to participate? The "reset" isn't going to be anything like a "jubilee".
I suppose we have to start looking at this as more like worldwide irrationality than American irrationality. Our debtholders were just busy loaning us enough rope to hang ourselves with... but at the same time they probably could've put that capital to better use than buying us rope...
I don't think angry quite gets my nuanced attitude. Don't forget, I've stated in the past the game is over. That being said, soloviki/oligarchs/plutocrats will as mal observed, exist in the system, any system.
There is no purifying moment. No catharsis. But survival is something else. I'm long on survival.
YLSP:
I suppose we have to start looking at this as more like worldwide irrationality than American irrationality. Our debtholders were just busy loaning us enough rope to hang ourselves with... but at the same time they probably could've put that capital to better use than buying us rope...
Exactly, the game ends when nobody buys our debt, and can continue indefinitely otherwise.
USD is on the raise vs other currencies; other govt debts are in process of defaulting; foreign banks are also struggling; etc. All these provide feedback loops to force foreign banks to buy US debts. (which then forces capital to be even more scarce in foreign country, which makes more of their govt/banks crash -- that's why is a feedback loop)
This can last as long as:
1. US Govt can issue debt
2. Foreign govt can buy debt at ever increasing amt.
3. Nobody talks about the elephant on the table: How's US going to repay the debts?
This is the real game.
This is why bailouts are good. Free money.
What's bad is if we actually achieve some sort of equilibrium, much like japan, such that the US govt is not quite dead, our banks are not quite alive, and economy is in extended depression for 18+ years. I hope that doesn't happen. The only way to guarantee that is for the bailout train to continue at full speed.
I just got a letter from Indymac requesting that I send them a new signed W-9. They "claim" that they don't have right Tax Id. # and want me to sign a new W-9 providing them with it.
Now "normally" I would say no problem however they already have the same information from last year's 1098 (MIS). I smell something a tad fishy...the W-9 they have enclosed "appears" to be ok.
Has anyone else ever rec'd one of these before? I've had mortgages for a long time and have never been asked to verify information that they already have.
The Indymac Form letter says you have to sign it and return it otherwise they will "be required by law to backup withhold on any reportable payment that we pay to you account until the necessary documents are received".
Does someone have a decent interpretation of what is defined as "backup withholding". I have impounds for property taxes...am I assuming incorrectly that this is something that qualifies as a "backup withhold"
Again normally I wouldn't have a problem signing and returning a W-9 however they already had, and have had this information for several year's and have never rec'd one of these before. This is also the same organization that is trying to offload everyone on to WFC's lap.
There may be a silver lining to these sales figures. While the rest of the country tanked, the west was up 37-38% over last year, and this is the second month in a row with numbers like that.
The significance is that these volatile and pricey markets out west were the first to feel the pain in the housing market. If they're starting to turn around it could be the beginning of a recovery.
Two months in a row may not be a trend, but it's a lot better than one!
This is funny. Apparently, Obama told a fellow Chicagoan that he was holding onto his Illinois home because the real estate market stinks. Evidently, the NAR hasn't yet informed him that it is always a good time to buy or sell a home.
A news camera caught Barack Obama saying in Manny's Deli on Friday afternoon the real estate market makes it a bad idea to sell the $1.6 million home where he lives with his wife Michelle and daughters Sasha and Malia. "We're keeping our house," Mr. Obama told a woman in the deli in a comment caught by the CBS-2 camera and posted online in a "Web extra." He grinned, adding, "We're staying in there for awhile. Now's not the time to sell."
First!
second
resuming from last 3d
C+55%
Rally mode ON
Who was buying C last friday I guess?
seventh???
Shouldn't that read, "NAR is having problems"?
Thank God we have Geithner. He'll fix this!
It's a Christmas miracle the stock market is up! Everyone go out and spend the last of their cash on holiday gifts.
Only to give way to the new year hangover and then the Obama chaser. Eventually Lefty cuts off the alcoholic when he can't pay anymore.
CNBC tells me that this is good. I think I will go back to sleep.
Who was buying C last friday I guess?
Next time another bank goes down I'm buying their shares Friday afternoon... I'm gonna need the profit to pay off my taxes!
I think bearly bought some C last week...pretty sure it was them.
I was wondering.
First Obama actions:
- Support TARP
- Support GM Bailout
- Appoint Geithner
- Appoint Hillary
- Stimulus package
- ...
...remove all coolness and rhetoric from him. If he have had John Kerry's face, what would have been your opinion of him?
CNBC Cars piling up. They'll end up in the Ariz desert boneyard. Empty houses rotting nationwide. Banks bailouts resume. Rally continues.
It's really much worse than the number since most of that foreclosure stuff is concentrated in very specific markets. Most non foreclosure markets must be absolutely dead.
Big rebate processor goes under.
Slickdeals.net Blog » Blog Archive » Major Rebate Processor Files For Bankruptcy: Deal Rebates May Be Affected (updated 12/10)
Market likes the Citi injection, so the Paulson action must be good.
DJ 10,000 on the way.
They will do ALL they can to revamp the bubble.
I hope they succeed, because by ALL i mean really ALL - and I won't like being enrolled for WWIII.
It's important to note that a large percentage of these sales were foreclosure resales (banks selling foreclosed properties).
Does that mean we should expect sales to collapse as the foreclosure ban takes effect?
Is this the cry baby thread or about new home sales.
Bear market rally people - calm down and stop crying. No wonder short cover rallies are so vicious....
On the plus side you have to bet that he's going to have the Obama-maniacs making up for the loss of foreign demand in treasuries.
See this story
President-elect Barack Obama's 3 million campaign volunteers got re-enlistment notices this week. Campaign manager David Plouffe, in a mass e-mail sent Wednesday to former workers, asked how much time they can spare for four missions integral to Obama's effort to transform his victory into a broader political movement.
The volunteers' options are, Plouffe wrote: Campaign for progressive state and local candidates; Undertake grassroots local efforts to advance Obama's agenda; Train others in Obama's organizing techniques; Focus on local political issues.
They'll be getting an e-mail shortly... "you donated in small amounts to Obama, now buy our debt in small amounts you too can own America... YES WE CAN! YES WE CAN! You to"
Big Foot (aka PPT) writes:
Is this the cry baby thread or about new home sales.
Go figure, I'm flat.
Somebody is not buying this because the 13-week was at zero a little while ago. Again.
Who was buying C last friday I guess?
I got rid of a little bit of F today. I kept some though just because Ford is such a great American icon.
Feedback loop developing:
All this keeps the NAR sales up, and realtors paid.
Bear market rally people - calm down and stop crying.
Exactly.
And it looks like Black Friday came early..... all puts are 50% off!!!
Given the backdrop in Sept. and Oct., I'm suprised anyone was buying homes.
..... all puts are 50% off!!!
What does that mean?
..... all puts are 50% off!!!
What does that mean?
Well, I covered some SPY Mar 60 puts on Thursday afternoon at 5.02. I can buy them back now for 2.62.
So the "day after Thanksgiving" sales are starting early!
Bear market rally people - calm down and stop crying.
Unless you anticipate these bear market rallies and cover your shorts as the market gets oversold.
Then you're the sort of permabear that's jumping up and down with joy as opposed to crying.
Those kind of permabears know how Bernanke feels with his printing press.
The after-Xmas sales are now pre-thankgiving. After X-mas they will be selling houses marked down 60% with an additional 15% off before SuperBowl.
Bush is now trying to use deliberations with Obama as his selling point.
Paulson looking shifty standing behind Bush. What's he got to hide?
Does that mean we should expect sales to collapse as the foreclosure ban takes effect?
Yes.
Paulson looking shifty standing behind Bush. What's he got to hide?
That's just Hank pulling W's puppet strings.
CR,
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment that you expect the inventory to fall. How does historic inventory compare with the same time line of unemployment. Hairy eyeball suggests that unemployment peaking will coincide with inventory peaking, and I don't believe unemployment has peaked. I think we'll see another peak, and another record.
Paulson may tap rescue fund, roll out new program: report
Paulson may tap rescue fund, roll out new program: report
| Reuters
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is considering tapping the second half of the government's $700 billion financial-industry rescue fund, and rolling out new programs in response to worsening market conditions, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.
Among other things, Paulson is seeking ways to make it easier for households to borrow money and also looking for ways to reduce the burden of foreclosure on homeowners, the paper said.
The Treasury could not immediately be reached for comment on the report.
Americans need more debt like another hole in the head
Combo of weak shorts and chasing bulls have always made for strong bear market rallies. Nothing new here.
Ministry of Truth,
Good conclusion. Mission Accomplished by multiple lobotomy.
WTF?
"We're not using the rest of the TARP. Oh yes, we are. No we're not. Yes we are."
blackhat writes:
CR,
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment that you expect the inventory to fall.
Ain't nothing coming out of the ground.
does it seem to you guys that every movie out recently has at least one line like "the oil is running out"
latest- quantun of solace
blackhat writes:
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment that you expect the inventory to fall.
There's "inventory" and then there's "inventory." Inventory is the new CPI. CR is dutifuly reporting the inventory as calculated. It is up to the careful reader to extrapolate the shadow inventory. We have a huge backlog of deferred foreclosures and REOs not yet on market. We have metered listings for tract homes where a few on the MLS represent dozens in the development. Bigger than all these are the demographic holdouts. Estates and imminent retirees and other lifestyle changing events are all holding on waiting for the market to turn. I can sell you dozens of homes in my small neighborhood that are not currently "for sale" if you are willing to pay the prices of last year. Hundreds, possibly including mine, if you are able to close at peak prices.
Dollar Down
Stocks Up
Commodities Up
Any Questions?
So, 14 months and no net decrease in supply.
(sorry for the OT. but there's still a lot of misdirected anger)
I don't get the anger, resentment and indigence from you people.
It's not like the govt is spending your future tax money.
Borkafatty got it right "The US Tax Payer is broke...and from the looks of things soon to be UN-employed...."
It's not like the govt is spending any of our money, since it's very obvious from anyone who cares to look, that the shrinking future tax base of the USA can never support this ballooning debt that the bailouts are creating.
What's happening is that the USA govt is borrowing from the world capital system -- as long as there's someone out there willing to lend us money. This is the final jig before USA declares bankruptcy; a final transfer of wealth if you would.
Not unlike someone doing a final maxxing of credit cards, withdrawing all those cash-deposit checks from CC companies, and maxxing out their loans; months before declaring bankruptcy.
This is a cause to celebrate. In a twisted way, this will actually speed up the final implosion and hence recovery. I WANT govt to spend more, lets earmark 20T for this and that and more. Do a final wealth "absorption" from the rest of the world govt who're still stupid enough to lend us money.
Like I said, I see these as perfectly rational things to be doing at this point.
I don't get your people's anger.
Good points Rob Dawg. I understand where CR's numbers come from and shadow inventory. I guess my point is even the official (skewed) inventory numbers ought to tick up again as unemployment ticks up.
However, I'm open to alternate universe economics and have been for quite some time...
HC, you're right, the American people can't pay for this, someone has to, and that someone will be the rest of the world;
'cept the rest of the world won't want to pay after a while, the only solution for that dilemma is world war, and the American people will be conditioned to want one of those before too many years have passed.
We'll start the next world war and we will lose that one, big time.
hc,
I understand your point to start again from ground zero after the big-one drops and wipes out the system...simplistic, but easier to imagine.
...however, my narrow interest are survival for my family and for myself...and frankly, post-nation/state collapse is a poor guarantee of the privilege of living. In fact, I'm not eager to live on my bullets and bourbon, although prepared to do so.
Just my narrow-minded view.
mal, does that mean we are all German now?
Comrade Kristina writes:
mal, does that mean we are all German now?
or put another way:
Hier stehe ich; ich kann nicht anders.
This is a cause to celebrate. In a twisted way, this will actually speed up the final implosion and hence recovery.
hc | 11.24.08 - 10:59 am | #
Interesting angle, hc. Twisted too.
anders? My german is so rusty...got the rest.
Friday's action today's continuation have the feel of the 950 pt. rally of a month ago.
No, actually we're worse than the Germans, in that their enemies in WW1 made them pay through the nose, and they couldn't pay for that, so they felt they had to start a world war.
Nobody made us pay for anything, we just did that all on our own.
mal, blackhat,
That's exactly the problem with your points of view:
You think that there's still something that can be done to prevent that future.
Because of that belief, you're in constant anger and resentment why the govt is not doing the right things. Why they're not preventing that future from happening.
Come to the true realization that we're already too far gone; already past event horizon trying to escape from a black hole gravity; then you'll realize that all the current action is GOOD
I say, bail out everything, bail out GM, bail out homeowners, send out stimulus, bail while there's still money left to bail out stuff.
These will speed up the coming "reset".
blackhat writes:
Good points Rob Dawg. I understand where CR's numbers come from and shadow inventory. I guess my point is even the official (skewed) inventory numbers ought to tick up again as unemployment ticks up.
However, I'm open to alternate universe economics and have been for quite some time...
Dont forget that the moratorium on foreclosures is going to decrease supply.
HC, you misunderstand my basic attitude methinks. But there isn't really any "reset." High-born crooks will still be running everything in the New World Order.
If our country is going to act like this can I choose not to participate? The "reset" isn't going to be anything like a "jubilee".
I suppose we have to start looking at this as more like worldwide irrationality than American irrationality. Our debtholders were just busy loaning us enough rope to hang ourselves with... but at the same time they probably could've put that capital to better use than buying us rope...
hc,
I don't think angry quite gets my nuanced attitude. Don't forget, I've stated in the past the game is over. That being said, soloviki/oligarchs/plutocrats will as mal observed, exist in the system, any system.
There is no purifying moment. No catharsis. But survival is something else. I'm long on survival.
what is survival ?
YLSP:
I suppose we have to start looking at this as more like worldwide irrationality than American irrationality. Our debtholders were just busy loaning us enough rope to hang ourselves with... but at the same time they probably could've put that capital to better use than buying us rope...
Exactly, the game ends when nobody buys our debt, and can continue indefinitely otherwise.
USD is on the raise vs other currencies; other govt debts are in process of defaulting; foreign banks are also struggling; etc. All these provide feedback loops to force foreign banks to buy US debts. (which then forces capital to be even more scarce in foreign country, which makes more of their govt/banks crash -- that's why is a feedback loop)
This can last as long as:
1. US Govt can issue debt
2. Foreign govt can buy debt at ever increasing amt.
3. Nobody talks about the elephant on the table: How's US going to repay the debts?
This is the real game.
This is why bailouts are good. Free money.
What's bad is if we actually achieve some sort of equilibrium, much like japan, such that the US govt is not quite dead, our banks are not quite alive, and economy is in extended depression for 18+ years. I hope that doesn't happen. The only way to guarantee that is for the bailout train to continue at full speed.
Go bailouts!
I just got a letter from Indymac requesting that I send them a new signed W-9. They "claim" that they don't have right Tax Id. # and want me to sign a new W-9 providing them with it.
Now "normally" I would say no problem however they already have the same information from last year's 1098 (MIS). I smell something a tad fishy...the W-9 they have enclosed "appears" to be ok.
Has anyone else ever rec'd one of these before? I've had mortgages for a long time and have never been asked to verify information that they already have.
Any advice out there?
CR? Tanta? Assembled experts?
Ciao
MS
The Indymac Form letter says you have to sign it and return it otherwise they will "be required by law to backup withhold on any reportable payment that we pay to you account until the necessary documents are received".
Does someone have a decent interpretation of what is defined as "backup withholding". I have impounds for property taxes...am I assuming incorrectly that this is something that qualifies as a "backup withhold"
Again normally I wouldn't have a problem signing and returning a W-9 however they already had, and have had this information for several year's and have never rec'd one of these before. This is also the same organization that is trying to offload everyone on to WFC's lap.
ANy idea what this really means?
Ciao
MS
There may be a silver lining to these sales figures. While the rest of the country tanked, the west was up 37-38% over last year, and this is the second month in a row with numbers like that.
The significance is that these volatile and pricey markets out west were the first to feel the pain in the housing market. If they're starting to turn around it could be the beginning of a recovery.
Two months in a row may not be a trend, but it's a lot better than one!
The gloomers of the world vs. the hopeful of the world. Nice.
This is funny. Apparently, Obama told a fellow Chicagoan that he was holding onto his Illinois home because the real estate market stinks. Evidently, the NAR hasn't yet informed him that it is always a good time to buy or sell a home.
A news camera caught Barack Obama saying in Manny's Deli on Friday afternoon the real estate market makes it a bad idea to sell the $1.6 million home where he lives with his wife Michelle and daughters Sasha and Malia. "We're keeping our house," Mr. Obama told a woman in the deli in a comment caught by the CBS-2 camera and posted online in a "Web extra." He grinned, adding, "We're staying in there for awhile. Now's not the time to sell."
Obama says he'll keep Chicago home - Washington Times