and with incomes falling............

Off topic but maybe I get a pony for finding this:

The Committee to Save the World

Income = the amount one earns, after the US takes taxes to pay the banks that have lost the most money, from selling fake pay stubs, hoopajoops, and their assorted derivative securities.

"However this does shows that the price-to-income is still too high, and that this ratio needs to fall another 15% or so."

That be why gubment of fools are trying to make sure they don't.

Re: estimate of 2% increase in household median income for 2008

I never got that memo!

I know a number of people who have worked as consultants for JPM for the last five years. In November their compensation packages were all been reduced by 30%.

-30%!!!

At least they still have jobs, I guess.

has income been adjusted for the .com and then equity withdrawl/40x leverage and coming 10% plus unemployment? if not then the graph needs to re indexed

U.S. Inflation :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

U.S. Inflation :: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Disgusted writes: I wonder how he and Geithner get along.

Answer:

Bernanke 3/28/07

" At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained."

Guithner 3/28/07

"As of now, though, there are few signs that the disruptions in this one sector of the credit markets will have a lasting impact on credit markets as a whole."

@ blackhat

"Policy option is defining where best to place the bullet in the head..."

I agree....but I also really think these guys still actually think they can avoid the bullet. They are that arrogant and out of touch.

CR writes : House Price-to-Income Ratio : ...that this ratio needs to fall another 15% or so...

Cr, I think you are still too optimistic.
In natural systems (includes economy), whenever you have an overshoot, you will also have an correlating undershoot (of smaller magnitude probably, think of "damped oscillation").

OTR

-thanks for the laugh

Oregon added 43 personnel to handle unemployment claims. Quality job creation. NPR

I noticed they have Gas Chamber and Crematorium Operators advertized on Career Builder. Should I be nervous?

A nest egg is the possibility of keeping both kidneys.

The world wants a new reserve currency.
Are we not providing that by destroying the dollar?

Is the government creating a poison pill for the world to swallow when they move ahead with a new reserve currency?

Lived in the third world for a while. When I got back to my home and turned on the light the cockroaches all scurried for the dark taking what they could.

The light has been turned on revealing the American economy/financial system. Look at the cockroaches run.

what is CPI doing?

Error freq=quarterly

Displaced workers with no paychecks or prospects could add a potentially catastrophic drag to a U.S. economy already facing its worst downturn in decades, says Joel Cutcher-Gershenfeld, the dean of the School of Labor and Employment Relations.

But he says businesses can cushion the blow of layoffs that are inevitable in the months ahead as companies align labor supply with sagging demand.

In the first of a series of commentaries on labor and the crippled economy, Cutcher-Gershenfeld urges employers to provide a softer landing for both workers and the economy through programs ranging from severance packages to retraining benefits.

“We’re not asking businesses to do this out of charity,” he said. “There are ways to approach layoffs that maintain options with the displaced workers, deepen loyalty with remaining workers, give meaning to stated corporate values, and help avoid an accelerated collapse in the economy. Instead of knee-jerk, across-the-board job cuts that will have a contagion effect on the economy, respond with programs that mitigate the harm to workers, while leaving businesses and society better situated to recover when there is an upturn.”

Alone, each company’s decision to scale back workers makes sense in a sour economy, Cutcher-Gershenfeld said. But collectively, a flurry of layoffs will accelerate a downward spiral if employees are simply cut loose, he said.

Providing safety nets may seem more costly than just letting workers go, but could save money in the long run, said Cutcher-Gershenfeld, whose research includes labor-management relations, public policy and economic development.

Thailand. What happened to that great vacation destination? Looks like civil war.

Thai political crisis heightens with new rallies - Asia-Pacific - msnbc.com

Same comment as the earlier thread; might one glean more information from something like 360*(P+I)/median income than price/median income? Taking Principle+Interest payments at prevailing interest rates at the time, assuming 30 yr fixed and 20% down. Then the effect of varying interest rates should be captured better.

Have most of the regulars here jumped ship for nakedcapitalism and other more sophisticated blogs? The banter here lately is very low class, but I guess you get what you pay for.

Anonymous,

Everything smart has been said, why rehash the same analysis of the same events over and over?

CR is now in "comment on the collapse" mode. IMO

“The hallmark of this crisis is unusually high credit spreads which are dampening borrowing and spending across the economy.”

This isn't about the airplane crashing, it's about managing the altimeter needle.

videoguy writes:
Big picture on this? Anyone.

Rubel's not a hard currency. They are running out of ForEx reserves for defending the currency's value.

Great graphic...is there comparable price-to-household income data from Japan or the Eurozone? It would be a good comparison with the US curve. Is the 1.0 line the valid trendline or is there a different mean that is being observed?

-h_d

Do the Billionaires run for the dollar? Even though it's lost its value to the dollar, it's gained against the Euro which has hurt its trading position.

RUSSIAN ANALYST PREDICTS DECLINE AND BREAKUP OF USA

Tue Nov 25 2008 09:04:22 ET

A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.

Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily IZVESTIA published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."

The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.

When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."

When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."

Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."

He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.

He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.

That sneaky PPT started early today. Another retest of 865 coming before the close?

Thanks Littlest and Barley.

Not paying hydro bills and the power stays on, smart move. Keep the people inside where it's warm instead of out in the cold rioting because the economy is crashing. I hope our government is as smart.

What's odd about that is the demographic that supports ending the fed using a russian to support their case.

high class comment:
Makers of Luxury Goods Loose Pricing Power
Dividend Stocks – The Dividend Daily » Blog Archive » Makers of Luxury Goods Losing Pricing Power (COH, LVMUY, SKS)
(always aiming to improve the tone of the comments)

Looks like no one wants to mis the last hour rally.
Lets see if it lasts.

hanks training timmy on the new buy button at treas

This legislation gives the government the power to seize property that facilitates the violation of intellectual property laws.
Read The Bill: H.R. 4279 [110th] - GovTrack.us

Ruh roh. What better way to seize computers and press charges against any American who has blogged or complained about the governments actions. The internet doesn't need to be shut down, just the vocal citizens. Seize my computers if I have watched a video that was copyrighted and infringed on by my IP.
Shouldn't have watched Californication Season 1 over the weekend.

Passed the House with 410 Ayes, 11 Nays, 12 Present/Not Voting. Currently in the Senate.

"Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare."

and in this case, Professor Panarin is demonstrating to his students the application of his expertise.

To suggest that Chinese or Russian governments should take the role of regulator of global financial systems is ludicrous. In both countries, corruption, opacity, and arbitrary measures are far worse in government than in the US.

спасибо

El Cliffo: What if the world's central banks are printing in unison, but using the printed currency to buy other countries bonds? Is there a mechanism for obfuscating the printing by central bank collaboration?

"Or maybe the charts are showing a cup pattern?"

We'll know shortly whether the action in the last 15 was a bat signal or a base camp.

phrase-o-day

Stretch002 writes:
Would the clan strongman or mercenary protection team have charged my more than 50% of my income forever?

The clan birthed you, raised you, fed you, clothed you, protected you, educated you. All you have is the clan's, or that's how they'll see it when they enforce their will.

As for the mercs, 50% before or after they betrayed you to your enemies or shot you and robbed your hacienda?

People with nothing to cry about sure invent reasons.

People with nothing to cry about sure invent reasons.

What a bunch of crap you're spouting. Nice dualism, by the way. It's the clan or strong arm mercenary, or our air force dropping bombs on brown and yellow people from 30,000 feet. As if they're the only choices.

Sorry Mandarin, but we are nto living in the "Third World Wasteland" you are describing. Can you adjust your examples of why I should give up more than 50% of my earnings and "sacrifice" with everyone in a meaningful and RELEVANT context please?

"...does he mean the sufferings of the Jewish people ?

I understood he meant someone else ."

It looks as if I did misunderstand.

"I am afraid that phrase "all classes and factions need to work together, give together and sacrifice as one" sounds a lot to communism to me."

No, communism is supposed to be classless.

With that in mind:
At what point should I decide to stop working and just ask for my bailout too? Only getting back half of what I make is becoming a serious deterrant to showing up to work everyday. Add that to various factions asking me to sacrifice more and more and you can see why I am frustrated.

This state is unjust and faltering -- there is no question of that. I'm hardly agreeing with everything Pavel says -- I think he's a barmy pollyanna. I also have enough historical perspective to know that it could be SO MUCH worse, and horse sense to think that most other places aren't too hot for jumping ship.

The crisis is the biggest opportunity ever to fall into your lap. Not now, but soon. Don't cry about it, cherish it. You'll never have another chance to make so much of yourself, and not in a positivist "you can change the world" sort of way.

Ignore the transient crap where they destroy the currency, old dynasties lead to new dynasties. This is just the lead-up to you getting SO RICH if you put your mind to it.

Stretch, if you truly make about $220k (based on your claim of $100k in taxes being 45% of your income) and pay $100k in taxes, I think you need a better accountant. The state and federal tax rates you cite are the marginal rates. I assume you're in CA based on the 10% you cite for state taxes. We do get to the 9.3% rate pretty quick (after about $44k in taxable income for a single filer, I think). But still, your state income tax burden for a gross income of $220k should be no greater than about $18k even if you don't itemize. Social security (presumably included in your 35% federal tax rate) tops out this year at $6300. Medicare has no cap, so that's 1.45% of $220k or another $3200. If you're paying $18k in state income taxes, I assume you itemize at the federal level, so your federal taxable income can't be larger than about $202k. The federal tax on $202k in taxable income for a single filer is ~$53k, which brings the total to around $80k (or 36% of $220k) for state and federal payroll/income taxes. Even if you include sales tax in your calculation, you'd have to have purchased $250k worth of taxable merchandise during the year to get to $100k in total tax burden. Something isn't quite adding up.

Good stuff Crash Positions. I was only talking MY income, not including my wifes. Together our HH income goes well above the numbers you have there as she makes more than I do...

I like to joke that she bought when my stock was low!

As a side note to Ed: I am now a Director of Marketing for an IT company. I started as a PC tech, as my industry got out sourced in the late 90's early 2000's I became an IT buyer, once that got centralized I became an IT Salesman, I have sinced moved into marketing and am now a Marketing Director.

During that work period I got half a dozen computer certifications, went back to college and got my BA degree, and continue to take courses/seminars to improve my skills.

I dreamed last night that I was riding on a passenger train. Suddenly it began to lurch, smoke started to fill the compartment, and the conductor strode into the aisle and shouted: 'We're using the emergency brake.'

I think it was the train of history.

This curve is way off for many populated areas, including all of California. What's up?

is it a good time forforex trading?

Forgot to say that the bet won't be a large one.

timmy and lassie rally got legs?

One way or another devaluation of the dollar is coming. Either by inflation or edict.

The analysis ignores the difference in mortgage costs (especially during the late 70's and 80s vs. 2000-2007). It would be really interesting to adjust this to reflect true mortgage costs.

More Joy from the FDIC:

FDIC Graphs Show the Extent of Financial Crisis « Your Mortgage or Your Life…

FDIC Graphs Show the Extent of Financial Crisis: More Institutions Report Declining Earnings, Quarterly Losses; Lower Asset Values Add to the Downward Pressure on Earnings; Growth in Reported Noncurrent Loans Remains High; Nine Failures in Third Quarter Include Washington Mutual Bank; Failure-Related Restructuring Contributes to a Decline in Reported Capital.

"Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
Pavel Chichikov writes:
Maybe in some decades the persecuted minority will be human beings.

I resent that
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse"

Mouse - human - all satisfied members of the Borg.

Pavel Chichikov writes: Shto?

I was talking about this :
Évian Conference - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

35 Nations not wanting them either. Clear sign of trouble ahead.

(Do not get me wrong : there is no way on earth to justify what happend later, but the story is a little bit ?wider/larger? than just '42, '43 )

Pavel Chichikov writes:
"Maybe in some decades the persecuted minority will be human beings."

After alredy six decades of disposession, rape and murder, maybe in some decades the persecuted majority of occupied Palestina will be considered human beings.

hypocrite.

emo

^TNX: Basic Chart for 10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE - Yahoo! Finance

thoughts on tomorrow's jobs claims and personal income?

My guess (and consistent with the theme of the week)- better then expected ... happy happy joy joy, oh spend you beautiful sheepeople, oh spend (preferably on credit)

I guess it depends on your definition of wealthy. Last I checked, I somehow qualify under Obama's definitation. Seeing as how I already pay 45% of my earnings in taxes each year (35% Federal, 10% State)I'd say I am already sacrificing quite a bit. Seeing as I am young, living in a good area and do not have children I fail to see what city services I am using to the tune of $100,000+ per year....

Pavel, with all due respect, before throwing around snipets of WWII kitsch, you may consider providing some context, such as this relevant citation by none other than Ben Gurion, the founder of Israel:

"If I knew that it was possible to save all the children of Germany by transporting them to England, and only half by transferring them to the Land of Israel, I would choose the latter, for before us lies not only the numbers of these children but the historical reckoning of the people of Israel."

David Ben-Gurio - Wikiquote

I would like you to take into account that I could have been in that hospital as well had I CHOSEN to join the military. Whether VET benefits are appropriate or not is another discussion. I would guess if you decide to up my tax rate that the money would not be going solely if at all to the vets.

So please submit some real examples of why I should sacrifice more than 50% of my earnings, zero return on investments, paying for and probably not receiving SS, and high asset prices...

"I would guess if you decide to up my tax rate that the money would not be going solely if at all to the vets. "

I'm not a member of Congress.

Would the clan strongman or mercenary protection team have charged my more than 50% of my income forever?

Pavel, when
Zeev Krankenfuss writes: "After alredy six decades of disposession, rape and murder, maybe in some decades the persecuted majority of occupied Palestina will be considered human beings,"

does he mean the sufferings of the Jewish people ?

I understood he meant someone else .