seconds and thirds?

One more time:

Iron ore will be priced in a basket of $, Euro, Yen, Yuan, Glod, Sliver, Oil, gigabit chip, kilowatt/hr., etc. Oil will be priced in a basket of...
We have the processing speed now. National currencies are obsolete.

All creditors will demand to be repaid using an index updated every second.

Says Yogi.

Why would a rational commodity seller agree to a price payable in $ 6 months from now given the actions of the Fed?

China is the most important part of the global crisis. It's like a minor character in a play who turns out to be the puppetmaster of the story.

Safe Haven | Thou Shalt Not Crucify Labor On This Cross Of Paper Money

cutting rates destroys capital

Well I read it. A bit disappointed, guess I was expecting some profound wisdom or insight rather than a whole whack of "let's extrapolate from the last six months" analysis.

Anyway, the World Bank has a horrific predictive record, so while I will try to keep an open mind to possibilities, I won't be spending much more time thinking about this report.

Off -topic, but since this stratfor piece is marked open access, and is timely:

Summary

If the Nov. 26 attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants as it appears, the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the United States into the fray.
Analysis
Related Special Topic Page

* Militant Attacks In Mumbai and Their Consequences

At this point the situation on the ground in Mumbai remains unclear following the militant attacks of Nov. 26. But in order to understand the geopolitical significance of what is going on, it is necessary to begin looking beyond this event at what will follow. Though the situation is still in motion, the likely consequences of the attack are less murky.

We will begin by assuming that the attackers are Islamist militant groups operating in India, possibly with some level of outside support from Pakistan. We can also see quite clearly that this was a carefully planned, well-executed attack.

Given this, the Indian government has two choices. First, it can simply say that the perpetrators are a domestic group. In that case, it will be held accountable for a failure of enormous proportions in security and law enforcement. It will be charged with being unable to protect the public. On the other hand, it can link the attack to an outside power: Pakistan. In that case it can hold a nation-state responsible for the attack, and can use the crisis atmosphere to strengthen the government’s internal position by invoking nationalism. Politically this is a much preferable outcome for the Indian government, and so it is the most likely course of action. This is not to say that there are no outside powers involved — simply that, regardless of the ground truth, the Indian government will claim there were.

That, in turn, will plunge India and Pakistan into the worst crisis they have had since 2002. If the Pakistanis are understood to be responsible for the attack, then the Indians must hold them responsible, and that means they will have to take action in retaliation — otherwise, the Indian government’s domestic credibility will plunge. The shape of the crisis, then, will consist of demands that the Pakistanis take immediate steps to suppress Islamist radicals across the board, but particularly in Kashmir. New Delhi will demand that this action be immediate and public. This demand will come parallel to U.S. demands for the same actions, and threats by incoming U.S. President Barack Obama to force greater cooperation from Pakistan.

If that happens, Pakistan will find itself in a nutcracker. On the one side, the Indians will be threatening action — deliberately vague but menacing — along with the Americans. This will be even more intense if it turns out, as currently seems likely, that Americans and Europeans were being held hostage (or worse) in the two hotels that were attacked. If the attacks are traced to Pakistan, American demands will escalate well in advance of inauguration day.

There is a precedent for this. In 2002 there was an attack on the Indian parliament in Mumbai by Islamist militants linked to Pakistan. A near-nuclear confrontation took place between India and Pakistan, in which the United States brokered a stand-down in return for intensified Pakistani pressure on the Islamists. The crisis helped redefine the Pakistani position on Islamist radicals in Pakistan.

In the current iteration, the demands will be even more intense. The Indians and Americans will have a joint interest in forcing the Pakistani government to act decisively and immediately. The Pakistani government has warned that such pressure could destabilize Pakistan. The Indians will not be in a position to moderate their position, and the Americans will see the situation as an opportunity to extract major concessions. Thus the crisis will directly intersect U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan.

It is not clear the degree to which the Pakistani government can control the situation. But the Indians will have no choice but to be assertive, and the United States will move along the same line. Whether it is the current government in India that reacts, or one that succeeds doesn’t matter. Either way, India is under enormous pressure to respond. Therefore the events point to a serious crisis not simply between Pakistan and India, but within Pakistan as well, with the government caught between foreign powers and domestic realities. Given the circumstances, massive destabilization is possible — never a good thing with a nuclear power.

This is thinking far ahead of the curve, and is based on an assumption of the truth of something we don’t know for certain yet, which is that the attackers were Muslims and that the Pakistanis will not be able to demonstrate categorically that they weren’t involved. Since we suspect they were Muslims, and since we doubt the Pakistanis can be categorical and convincing enough to thwart Indian demands, we suspect that we will be deep into a crisis within the next few days, very shortly after the situation on the ground clarifies itself.

This report may be forwarded or republished on your website with attribution to STRATFOR - Geopolitical intelligence, economic, political, and military strategic forecasting | STRATFOR 

India and Pakistan desperately need to drop a nuke on each other before it's too late. The clowns in both countries need to understand the severity of what they're f'ing with...

All this talk of paper going back and forth is pure bullshit. The relevant consideration is still whether the US will produce things that China will want to trade its products for, or use the dollars to buy valuable stuff from other traders. If their dollars don't buy much of value game over.

Pavel Chichikov,

This attack is different.

No hindu-muslim violence in India has ever targeted american/ british/ jewish people with such specificity.

You know something is funny when the biggest target for hostage taking is a Jewish community center (Nariman House) in Mumbai(Bombay).

Kristina,

Sorry to burst your bubble, but unsecured pakistani nuclear weapons are more likely to end up in a US or European city. The pakistani army used to be westernized, but it now full of religious nutters in the lower ranks. So far they have been able to keep them from climbing into the driver's seat- but a coup/war could change that.

Add that to the fact that pakistan is now bankrupt and lacks a functional government(as we understand that concept).

Comrade Kristina writes:
If Pakistan nukes India will our jobs come back?

how pathetic. first all these economists say china is going to decouple, then when the slowdown is DEAD obvious, they invent all sorts of esoteric reasons to proof why they were right about this or about china's future increasing CA. watch some telly, read some news. RIOTS my friends. and this "terms of trade" argument. manufacturing was already migrating from china in summer, and now with every EM currency down against USD 20-40% except yuan, that's terms of trade!

1 currency soon [yogi],

Neither Indian Hindus or Muslims have any antipathy for western or jewish businessmen (indeed indians of all religious stripes like making money). However radicalized muslims have been brainwashed to hate both these groups.

Read between the lines.

All I'm saying is don't jump to conclusions. Neither my Pakistani nor my Indian friends in New York are the slightest bit anti-Semitic. (I was a squash pro) Of course there are terrorists in Pakistan.

Happy Thanksgiving all will check in later.

This should be an interesting movie. I can hardly wait to see what the Producer/Director, Michael White, dug up.

The Movie, as stated in the below is the real story about Project Jennifer, or Azorian. Apparently you need only tickets that you purchase at the box office and no need to visit your favorite SSO.

projectjennifer.at

As an aside.... for over 30 years I have had a cube {about 4"x 4"x 4"} of steel that came from the pressure hull of K-129. For years I kept it under my bed as a reliable form of birth control. Now I can't find it. Perhaps I should pull out a Geiger Counter. Enjoy the trailer

Re:
Uncertainty.
Agreed 100%

girlbear writes:
To gain an understanding of what is happening in Pakistan I recommend reading "3 cups of tea" a true account of American Gregg Mortengensen who has been building schools in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The rate of "Madrassas" (schools that teach the young militant islamic fundamentals) springing up in Pakistan in the early 2000's is shocking and alarming.

For an even better understanding, read of Pakistan's then leader Gen. Zia, de-funding of rural Pakistan's public education in the early 1980's and asking Saudi Arabia to provide madrassa as a substitute. This one done at the behest of Reagan and Bill Casey to pump out more "freedom fighters" to defeat the USSR>

Satan-

My contacts in rural southern India say the opposite. Although the birthplace of radical Hinduism (and some of their great warlords) it is now predominantly Muslim. The govt won't support the poor so the Gulf States do through the mosque and madrasa. Women can no longer safely travel without a male family member or without a head scarf. This is not the city- many despise the city dwellers.

It is no wonder that there are bombs going off in Mumbai (Bombay). If the govt has balls (it doesn't) they will cut off the Gulf State money and save their country. If not, wait for the holy wars to begin in earnest. I'm not trying to be anti-muslim here... I'm trying to be realistic. There will be massacres.

"Probably, but isn't the either/or scenario not only a false dichotomy, but also assuming a lot of intimate knowledge of Indian domestic politics?"

I know next to nothing about either India or Pakistan, which is why I thought the article was interesting. I have no idea if an expert in these countries would find any validity in its thesis. Reject or accept as you will.

I do find the issue of nuclear weapons to be interesting, because it was a story I followed during the Cold War. I spoke with some people who had, at some point, operational control over them, had studied their use, or were otherwise associated with them.

Both countries are nuclear armed. What happens to them and in them is extremely important.

my first allegiance is to trying to get the story straight whether it supports one side of the aisle or the other, while recognizing my own bias
mock turtle

Of course. But when Jayna Davis who in the past has been championed by Woolsey, Hannity, Phyllis Schlafly, Bill O'Reiley and Dan Burton, makes claims like these, I'm left thinking about the 2nd shooter on the Grassy Knoll from 45 years ago.

While I agree that McVeigh and Nichols were not lone, bad apples, I do not believe the claim of foreign interference.

Their support group was a place called "Elohim City," in way eastern Oklie-land, near the Arkansas state line. It was there where McVeigh was heading when he got popped for vehicular infractions (mainly, no license plate).

unless the iraqis, clever bastards that they are, had slipped up on McVeigh's getaway car and removed the plate, thereby setting McVeigh up for that bored observant Stater out by Chandler.

The most compelling reason for choosing Oklahoma City was probably it was the easiest "Big" target around. Until then, OkieCity would have been flattered to have been thought even a backwater. It's composed of one gy-normous air-base and about a million truck stops. Nobody would EVER attack OKC (unless to shut up KOMA). Easy pickings.

Me? I spent 30 years in oklahoma, between '94 and 2000...

There's a important development in Mumbai from the Indian news agency PTI, via BBC. Since some of us are very sensitive to the issues, you might want to look it up yourselves. I don't want to be responsible for any possible personal reactions.

"001 writes:
Pavel - you are too well respected by most here to be considered guilty of partisanship."

Thanks OO1. CR is filled with unusually bright, sensitive people. I feel lucky to have found it. I think the Web, if used well, is one of the most progressive and valuable human inventions ever made. It cuts the isolation of post-industrial society, and anything that brings people into communication with one another is precious.

"Which article?.. hints?"

I'm through with this topic. Too sensitive. I never expected such a reaction to forwarding an article without comment.

Somehow, after 8 years of Bush, I don't think that either side believes or cares about such American threats/promises.
rent_to_own

Don't be too sure about that. The world will know who launched nuke first. That nation would soon cease to exist. Be it Bush, Obama or whomever follows.

but there is no place on this planet I would rather be.

No place? Are you sure? Also, that may be the case right now, but unlike some of the other places you've mentioned, we're going to fall that much harder because we're that much further removed....and we have much more to lose.

Your comment seems indicative of American Exceptionalism...as in "it couldn't and wouldn't happen here." It most certainly could, and most likely will happen here.

Thanks, all.

I will say this: The powers must take a firm grip on the situation, and I expect they will, because they must.

Just before the beginning of the first Gulf War, I had a conversation at the offices of Red Star, the official newspaper of the MoD, with two Soviet officers. I've never forgotten their appreciation of the instability of the entire region. They minced no words.

"Then the truth comes out it's because of Religion and the hatred it bred towards other religions "

I've noticed how atheist regimes have been bastions of peace, tolerance and joy. [irony]

Thanks, Volker. That article is useful.

But when the author mentions government actions, he needs to remember that US citizens insist of seeing their government as two entities are the same time:

(1) Bailouts, FEMA, FDIC, etc.
(2) "Government is the problem, not the solution," "I love my country, but I don't trust my government," etc.

1 is the real world when things get scary. #2 is the bumpersticker.

How the heck did you get from "unpopular" to "using nukes" guy? That is one big jump and, uh, btw, I don't think we would call using nukes unpopular; try maybe instead, horrendous and unthinkable

Because horrendous and unthinkable would be reduced to unpopular for Obama's fan club who thinks he can, and will do no wrong. I'm sure it could be framed as a necessary evil. He mentioned that he would use any means possible to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons....and that included the using nukes. That tells me that he would also use them elsewhere if the situation warranted it.

And, what's up with the "guy" comment? Can I call you girl? Or are you a guy? Does it matter?

If Pakistan nukes India will our jobs come back?

What makes you think it wouldn't be the other way around?

Thanks again to all. I probably shouldn't have gone off-topic, but I had a feeling about this episode that it has the potential to become global and affect many areas that have been under discussion.

The rate of "Madrassas" (schools that teach the young militant islamic fundamentals) springing up in Pakistan in the early 2000's is shocking and alarming. By now they have churned out hundreds of thousand militan muslims.....................

And how exactly could that have happened without our intelligence services condoning it and/or aiding and abetting it. For all intents and purposes, the ISI is the CIA in Pakistan, and the Bush Admin. has had a rather cozy relationship with Pakistan's leaders.

Develop your enemy, because it's important to have a perpetual enemy, but make sure that enemy is crude in comparison to your own capabilities.

What happened to 'do'? It's only my second bourbon of the evening. Getting old.

I agree with the science contending that the "diseases of civilization" - namely heart disease, diabetes, cancer, etc. - are caused by consuming carbohydrates, esp. refined, but any more than minimal consumption.

10 years ago in Nat Geo a DR. was doing research on heart disease and his jaw dropped when he noticed in Mediterranian countries heart disease, strokes was much lower. Olive oil consumption was the reason. I do 1 tbsp. every morning with my vitamins.

lawyerliz,

Xylitol gives you gas and diarrhea, not as easily as sorbitol or lactulose- but amounts that a heavy sugar user would consume would certainly cause an upset stomach.

Yes, Carbs are not good for you, but better to have the real thing once in a while than a substitute like xylitol.

Bonners Turkey story;

"You can understand how fraudulent most economic analysis is," Nassim explained, "just by looking the life of the turkey. The animal is fed for 1000 days…and then it is killed. So, if you plotted out the turkey's life on a chart, it would look great for 1,000 days…each day, the food arrived reliably, and each day, the turkey gained weight. The turkeys would look around and say they were enjoying growth and a bull market. Momentum investors would see it as an opportunity. The quants would run linear regressions on the data and prove that the risk was minimal. "

Ben Bernanke would describe the turkey's life - with no setbacks - as the product of a "great moderation." Turkey stockbrokers would assure their clients that nothing had ever gone wrong in the turkey's life. Turkey econometricians and theorists would come up with explanations for why the turkeys' growth would continue forever and they'd pat each other on the back for having finally mastered the "turkey cycle." Turkey politicians would run for re-election on the grounds that they had helped create a better world. And turkey economists would project further weight gains…until the turkey was the size of a hippopotamus

Then, come Thanksgiving, and all of a sudden, something goes wrong. Alas, all the turkeys' theories, models, and conceits were for the birds.

The Daily Reckoning covers the economy, global markets and world politics. 

Live 45 min south of Willamburg in Virginia Beach . They had just had hugh layoffs in Colonial Willamburg.More layoffs may number hundreds

By Steve Vaughan | The Virginia Gazette
November 19, 2008

WILLIAMSBURG - The work force got smaller again Tuesday at Colonial Williamsburg, perhaps by hundreds of people.

But unlike last week’s elimination of 280 positions, 140 of which involved actual terminations, the foundation said Tuesday’s reductions aren’t permanent.

In the "Agencies vs. Treasuries" in that story, what is an "agency"?

I don't trust a Chinaman any further than I can toss 'em.

We need to worry about China and more about the USA for a change. Buy Made in the USA for Christmas. Keep the money in the USA, and we won't have to worry about China buying our worthless treasuries.

We just went looking for candy canes- 99% are made in either Mexico or China. Even Spanglers are made in Mexico...so, we just go without until we can find some made in the USA. It never ceases to amaze me how fast greed will flush down the toilet 200+ years in the development of a safe food supply for our Nation. Drink juice? Trying finding where it comes from. They have the most clever ways of hiding it. I swear, if these companies could get away with selling us human feces, they would.

Consider this next time you purchase your rum, Pavel. Seems things haven't changed much in Nicaragua, absent the killing of Sadinistas.

The Yale Globalist - Sugar-Coated Rhetoric

@lawyerliz, re xylitol.

Be very, very careful if you own dogs. Xylitol even in very small amounts is fatal to dogs. A 15-20 lb dog would suffer permanent liver damage if it ingested, say, 2 pieces of Orbit or Trident gum.

Safety and responsible caretaking of nuclear weapons is one of the greatest fallacies of our era. Getting worse every year.

We also are guilty of lax oversight.

Air Force investigates mistaken transport of nuclear warheads - CNN.com

it's easy, once the EUR.USD rises convincingly in concert with oil "deleveraging" or as i like to call it, "short covering" is over.

the big question is really what quantity is larger. $Xtrillion in new govt debt or the net of derivatives exposure.

given that it is impossible to cover all the fraudulent bets on the crash of others because world GDP is not larger that that quantity, it is only a matter of time before the mistaken rallies are seen for what they really are...

DEATH SPIKES

"6. The last thing anyone needs to worry about is fall in Chinese demand for US treasuries."

I had to stop reading at that point. China will need every nickle of their reserves to forstall a crash of historic proportions, but it won't work.

Here's a more alarming post from someone who's prediction on China's equity market crash, among other things, have been quite accurate:

"China will eventually be in no position to keep buying U.S. Treasuries. Globalization is finished."

"It is not inconceivable that China's industrial output could drop by 50-70% as we hit the economic impacts of this cycle. Don't blink. You read that right."

Rantings on Markets, Economics and Business Strategy: The Coming Volatility In China

John- How accurate is the CPI or anything else in this country? Do you trust the stock market ? Do you trust NAR . Do you trust CEO ? Be careful everyone has a vested interest.... PS Trust me ..

Of course. But when Jayna Davis who in the past has been championed by Woolsey, Hannity, Phyllis Schlafly, Bill O'Reiley and Dan Burton, makes claims like these, I'm left thinking about the 2nd shooter on the Grassy Knoll from 45 years ago.

Boy, if you think Oswald acted alone you are in an extreme minority too.

I could easily dismiss the claim without looking at details myself, but I have learned to respect Mock Turtle's material.

Guess what? Abe Lincoln was killed by a conspiracy perhaps emanating from Confederate leadership and perhaps aided from the inside.

Chief executives of large powers tend to be guarded heavily and lone nuts should have a hard time getting at them. Patsy's, on the other hand, are as old as the hashishin.