CB Richard Ellis: CRE "Conditions have deteriorated" Rapidly
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 11/28/2008 - 6:10am (77 comments)
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whee!
I am continually amazed at comments like "...no one could have predicted just a few months ago."
I call shenanigans! There were plenty of people sounding the alarms, just too few decision makers willing to heed the good wisdom being brought their way.
You can lead a horse to water.....
Sounds like a ringing BUY BUY BUY recommendation for SRS!!!!
Only "94 visitors"?!?
Is everybody at the mall or what????
so suuuwwwweeeeee me.
Bubba2Friday writes:
Only "94 visitors"?!?
Is everybody at the mall or what????
Last call at The Last Mall
To be fair, the CBRE guy wasn't optimistic last summer, he like a lot of people, were fearing or predicting a downturn.
What has been 'unforeseen' is the speed with which the storm has hit. I don't think anyone was prepared for that. Things just seem to have fallen
off a cliff over the past two months.
I don't think anyone in the economic
forecast business has seen anything quite like this before.
I'm going to go shopping now. See with my own eyes what the malls look like and buy some stuff for old times
sake.
I have to work today, Wednesday night before Thanksgiving was a complete bust in the bar industry here, historically it's the biggest night of the year. It'll be interesting to see how many are out shopping today, working at a bar, I get a nice cross section of people in and out..Save some disaster porn for me when I get off today gang...
CR,
Doug Noland was more right than Roubini in some ways. He in the early 2000's that the GSEs were there to enable hyper-growth at all non-GSE financial sectors, and he called the shadow banking system and he called the 2008 equity market volatility. He called demise of hedge funds and saw that investment banks were financed on limestone.
I want shares in the company that converts CRE into homeless shelters.
Something is going on with gold
Travis,the flower joke is more appropriate "You can lead a Horticulture,but you can't make him think".
And citigroup is ralling like crazy. Buy now or be priced out forever!
Those Mumbai video clips running on Fox Business News don't inspire confidence in Indian Commando Forces. I don't think they've been in many shootouts. What was just shown were some moving about with automatic weapons barely squatting down behind cars for protective cover, about 20 feet in front of the TV cameras. They just don't have the professional feel of SWAT guys. And I guess the media are insane for being sooooooo close.
Comrade Peronista writes:
Something is going on with gold
In case you haven't seen these two articles from Marketwatch, they are worth a read, one Nov. 17th the second Nov 26th -
For radical goldbugs, a rally is overdue Peter Brimelow - MarketWatch
Gold bugs, grinches finally agree on something Peter Brimelow - MarketWatch
The double long gold ETF, DGP, has barely budged....
Even if the economy improves more and more retail moves to the internet every year. Good for warehouses and garages I guess.
And UPS, who's trucks only make right turns...
Hub went out to get a few things. We'll see. Then he wants to go play golf.
The horticulture joke was grrrrreat.
Privateer Gerkinov writes:
I want shares in the company that converts CRE into homeless shelters.
Privateer Gerkinov | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 9:43 am | #
--
I've been long BUM for a few years.
I just read a book this weekend. Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Anyone that looks at the past to give clues about the future should study it.
It covers the Mississippi Project, the South Sea Bubble, and the Tulip Mania.
There are so many parallels between those times and our current environment, it is shocking.
Yet it also gives hope -- none of those crisis led directly to a revolution. Instead, we can expect people to look for scapegoats and villify those we feel are most responsible. And there will be mass poverty.
Search for scapegoats, villification of those responsible, mass poverty; what else do you need, G-, for a revolution? That seems to be about a complete list.
Tulip mania's are where I make most of my money. Not being able to see what was coming in this past year just shows again how idiot most economists and financial guys are. Just plain stupid.
Dope,
The ingredients for revolution where there, but it never materialized. One reason might be that people realized just how stupid they were to believe the obvious lies. Sort of a, "wtf were we thinking" mentality.
Not to say it can't happen now. Just that historically it hasn't.
..........Roubini predicted this....haha.....
Saw a report on PBS' Newshour Wednesday night on shopping on London's famous High St. They finished by interviewing the aged at "Old Koots" pub, where they said it's the worst it's been since the war...
Tulip bulb prices have been flat for almost 400 years ... I think they're poised to spike.
Happy Red Friday! The local Kohls opened a 4am.......
CRE is toasted and done. Great debt buying oppurtunities abound. My local bank is toting the construction note on a $2.3 million mixed use office/condo project. The take out lender went kaput. I've offered $1.5 mil for the paper and it is actually going to committee! Replacement cost is probably $3 mil.
RTC 2.0
Our very own CR painted a pretty clear picture of both scale and speed using an architects' survey as a leading indicator.
Perhaps he was alone in that.
In many ways the tulip mania was the most shocking. People were literally selling their property, their livestock, and their jewelry, in order to speculate in tulip bulbs. Seriously wtf were they thinking?
But the South Sea bubble had thousands of people bidding up the prices of shares of obviously ridiculous companies -- the allure of a short term buck, and being able to flip it to a greater fool, is incredibly powerful. Don't underestimate the willingness of people to gamble -- even on an enterprise that will obviously fail.
I just read last night's Indian pharmacy clerks Vs. Canada drama.
Can we PLEASE now move onto slamming Sweden??
Why Sweden, over say, Bolivia???
G-, the difference this time is that true liberty-loving Americans -- think folks in the South, who are the modern day equivalent of the Founders, opinionated and armed -- once they awake from their slumber, are going to be very, very unhappy with the status quo.
I think we see a revolution, or at least an overthrow of the status quo/monied interests, i.e., Federal Reserve.
The housing numbers yesterday showed that supply is now back to 11.1 months...the oversupply had been slightly down into the low 10's, but I think yesterday's numbers show that the consumer, and the root cause of the consumer's weakness, housing, will be very weak next year...
Bolivians don't brag about their car brands and peace prizes.
CGH
Also regarding "tulips mania's", recovery times are very long, depending on its extent.
From the previous thread:
mp: the core problem is that Americans think they can have their cake and eat it, too.
This is one part of the problem. The other part is that Americans will have to work extra to pay for the cakes they already ate.
Today we'll see if this reality has sunk in yet.
Dope,
That's the beauty of Obama. Even the most oppressed minorities will feel a sense of connection to him. Why would they throw a revolution when we've finally made enough progress to elect a black president?
I put the odds of revolution at 20% tops.
I have been talking about this stuff for a year and more. And all I did was look at the fate of real estate and extrapolate. I guess I am allowed to freely think because I'm a nobody and not a guru. You are not free to think if you are a guru.
"This is one part of the problem. The other part is that Americans will have to work extra to pay for the cakes they already ate."
THAT'S NOT THE AMERICAN WAY....
Our mad scientists, see evidence of their handiwork with derivatives, will devalue the dollar to pay the bill. Problem solved without attending summer school due to failing the regular term.
Worker dies at Long Island Wal-Mart after being trampled in Black Friday stampede
Worker dies at Long Island Wal-Mart after being trampled in Black Friday stampede
Sure, it won't be the blacks revolting; what have they got to restore?
It will be the white Southerners and folks out in the Mountain West.
No way they will, in the face of a plummeting economy, accede to shipping ever larger sums to D.C. and state capitols to prop up a corrupt system.
Give it a year.
"karelian writes:
Bolivians don't brag about their car brands and peace prizes."
Okay, but I like the Swedes. Accountants by day, strippers at night; what more could a guy ask for???
It will be the white Southerners and folks out in the Mountain West.
No way they will, in the face of a plummeting economy, accede to shipping ever larger sums to D.C. and state capitols to prop up a corrupt system.
I thought these folks were net receipients of the federal money. Will they start refusing it?
Animals, those Long Islanders at the WalMart.
I'm off to pickup my handgun and place an order for rifle, so that my son and I can play our part in the forthcoming revolution.
Good Friday to all.
Ford stock is rippin' today. What Black Friday offer do they have going?
All's well in America,
on this day after
giving thanks, prayers
have been answered.
One Walmart worker
has been trampled to death
by shoppers praying
at the altar of consumption.
All's well in America.
I've heard it on Fox.
Worker dies in Long Island Wal Mart Stampede.
Page Not Found 28_worker_dies_at_long_island_walmart_after.html
Speaking of car brands, did anyone notice what Ford and GM bonds were trading at on Wednesday last? Talk about circling the drain, ggeezz...
A year ago some here were talking about the tentative nature of CRE...but heh, our discussions were free so they had no value.
I have said a number of times technology has allowed a faster wider flow of information...this leads to broader action with greater speed. It is no wonder that all this cliff diving in a short period of time. duh!
So do you think SRS' most recent collapse is over and its back up from here or does it have a way to slide still?
Currently watching the economic and politicial events in Canada. There might be a change of government b/c the Conservatives are not doing a stimulas pkg to address the economic reality. The current Prime Minister of Canada is another neocon.
No offense, but seeing those scenes on TV from Black Friday tells me that the Ship is sinking. Not fast, but who are these people? Is that real?
I put the odds of revolution at 20% tops.
Comrade Gavshire Hathaway | 11.28.08 - 10:25 am | #
Way less than 20% - rev won't happen unless we see real unemployment 20-30% - coupled to 'wealth destruction'.
Even w/ wealth destruction we won't get 'revolution' if people are working & eating - too busy to rebel. Need large numbers of idle hungry angry folks willing to get blown away in pursuit of a 'cause'. And blown away they will get - many, many of them.
As for jg's 'armed founders' - they will stand up to professional troops about as well as butter to a hot knife. I had a buddy in the SEALs (later went on to Delta)... we used to discuss this - he'd just say the civies (us) have no idea how quick the 'elites' (them) could behead any domestic 'movement'. Without leadership - the regular police could easily mop up the rabble.
There will have to be A LOT more erosion of civil authority via unemployment and collapse before anything even looking like a revolution gains traction AND could survive the inevitable and extremely harsh official reprisal.
That isn't to say we won't 'prosecute scapegoats' - TPTB just have to go about rounding up the 'usual suspects' & stage the show trials. Fox will cover it 24X7... fair and balanced. That is probably in the works now.
Comrade Peronista writes:
No offense, but seeing those scenes on TV from Black Friday tells me that the Ship is sinking. Not fast, but who are these people? Is that real?
Denial is a hard nut to crack.
Watch the horror show in India
Watch Live, Indian TV News Channel, CNBC TV 18, Online Free on Live TV
or
Livetv.ws - Live tv Resources and Information.
CNBC is running footage of crowds this morning entering a store, and there's a woman near the front with a baby stroller. WTF?!?
On a different note.... those dirty Swedes!!!
cumshot (Ida Koivusaari) | MySpace
... true liberty-loving Americans -- think folks in the South, who are the modern day equivalent of the Founders, opinionated and armed ...
Satire at it's finest ... do you write for The Onion?
oil popping much lower, sp to follow?
I think 'india will go into a recession next week.,
they cant even remove few hold outs for 3 days ?
horrendous
Livetv.ws - Live tv Resources and Information.
Livetv.ws - Live tv Resources and Information.
My son was in the Rangers for a while.
I don't think that he or his buddies would have fired on revolting Americans. Just don't think so. Yeah, they COULD, yeah, they'd WIN.
The Army turned the son into a peacenic.
New thread.
From the wikipedia entry, the South Sea bubble sounds a lot like the dotcom bubble. People speculating on a new and not very well understood source of potential wealth.
Interesting stuff.
.
the crowds are in to get the limited supply of loss leaders. happens every year. people get injured or killed for stuff that will end up in the basement or garage in a year.
we will see a spike on sales from loss leaders which translates to negative net.
i suspect Y o Y net profits will be much worse. but gamblers in the bear market may get excited by initial sales & foot traffic. by monday look for a dramatic drop in sales & traffic.
long term : more empty overbuilt CRE & scarcity of crappy part-time jobs.
RE: anecdotal CRE stuff....
My youngest son is an iron worker here in SoCal who has managed to stay very busy until recently. He was telling me that he had two recent jobs that involved ripping out their previous work as the contractor had decided to dump his (my son's) employers company and go non-union. He also stated that there are more and more sites that are just plain shutting down, leaving half completed buildings to rust and crumble. The construction co.'s are getting lean and mean as fast as they can....no company trucks, phones, gas cards etc. The lifers are really spooked. They've never seen it like this.
This is no shock to the posters here, I'm sure.
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure."
Apparently Jefferson appreciated action more than you give him credit for.
Jefferson didn't say anything about a bunch of pantywaists spilling ink or electronic bits as the end all and be all of free men.
Dryfly
where were those elite commandos when that nitwit holy roller killed all those innocent folks in Atlanta for the Olympics? Shoot, it took the FBI months to figure who to even look for.
and in a class fight, please research the way midwesterns hid bank robbers like they were robin hood when times were bad and banks were evil.
you piss off a redneck who doesn't talk much and lost everything, we will have serious problems in America.
He does not have to attack straight up in a mob like the bonus riots.
I thought we learned that in Oklahoma city. Your boy is fighting the wrong battle.
gomer
"Need large numbers of idle hungry angry folks willing to get blown away in pursuit of a 'cause'. And blown away they will get - many, many of them."
Eisenhower, Patton and McArthur were all there to put down the Bonus Army "insurrection" in 1932.
I thought we learned that in Oklahoma city. Your boy is fighting the wrong battle.
You don't think they went 'internet' after OK City & 9/11? They weren't looking for those folks then - they are now. The only way you get away from them now is go 'Ossama' - completely native in the mountains like the Clinic Bomber did in North Carolina. Good luck running your revolution from a cave in the wilderness w/ no means of communication to your 'followers'.
They got all the info they need to find anyone of us just from tracing down internet addresses - Free Republic must be a gold mine for them.
And this isn't the 'Midwest 1930' where farmers will hide gangsters - way different 'war' - its the basement gun owners who are the ones fighting the 'last war' thinking those rules still apply.
BTW - I know the chief of police in my small town of 20ish thousand... they know just about everyone who has a private weapons cache - keep their ear to the ground. Don't need registration - but they know pretty well who's out there. With the help of a few real commandos they could take them all down in hours - not days or months.
Rebels could run and try to hide but would be completely neutralized quickly and mass resistance squashed.
Lastly - my buddy in the SEALs IS A REDNECK - the SEALS & RANGERS & DF are all full of rednecks - they think like rednecks. They would have no difficulty finding nor any qualms about offing renegades of their own class. Talk to some you'll learn - duty first.
It's comical to read the 'weakend warriors' tell us how they are going to overthrow the tyrants and save the 'Republic'. They'll all end up in body bags the first afternoon.
:::
Is a revolution possible? Yes - but only after complete societal collapse where the SEALS & 'information gathering community' no longer get the economic support & resources necessary to maintain effectiveness. That will require 30% unemployment or something like that and a 'Soviet Style' systemic collapse first. We aren't even close to that yet - not impossible but not imminent either.
WTFU!!
.
lawyerliz writes:
My son was in the Rangers for a while.
I don't think that he or his buddies would have fired on revolting Americans. Just don't think so. Yeah, they COULD, yeah, they'd WIN.
The Army turned the son into a peacenic. lawyerliz
That's what Blackwater is for.
.
in regards to the inquiry about buying SRS. I've bought it and sold it for the past year through 3 up and down cycles. I have started buying back in at $120. I hope to buy a bunch on the way down to $100. We'll see how stupid the other side of the trade wants to be. Hopefully very.
I'm also buying back in on EEV.
12th percentile--me too plus a few others.
lawyerliz(Unrated) writes:
My son was in the Rangers for a while.
I don't think that he or his buddies would have fired on revolting Americans. Just don't think so. Yeah, they COULD, yeah, they'd WIN.
The Army turned the son into a peacenic.
lawyerliz | 11.28.08 - 10:46 am | #
Peaceful civil disobedient Americans doing nonviolent protest - I agree - tough to get American soldiers to shoot.
Violent revolutionary 'Timothy McVeigh' types? Especially after a couple more Murrah buildings on our own soil?
I think you would have a hard time holding the likes of Delta, Special Forces & Rangers back even if the perps were 'American'.
Violent revolutionary 'Timothy McVeigh' types? Especially after a couple more Murrah buildings on our own soil?
Timothy McVeigh was an uneducated moron who knew nothing about asymmetrical warfare and got caught because he talked to acquaintances. Think unabomber.
Comrade Gavshire Hathaway 'Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds' read that book way back in the early 70s when I was a kid, the writer Adam Smith (Funny Money, and others) was big on it, glad to see it make a comeback in the general discourse.