As per Black Friday saving them... Depends how deep their hole is by now.
I posted last night on this - my son works for a retailer at Mall of America (MOA). Their branch isn't doing too badly because their mgmt cut 'labor hours' way early - starting late last summer - and didn't staff up for the holidays. He says they are 'above plan' as measured against sales to labor cost ratios.
He said that is NOT true across the whole company. His company gives store managers quite a bit of leeway to manage & staff... the ones who were 'optimistic' are the ones who are way under their plans. There isn't anywhere near enough Christmas selling season for them to catch up now. Heads will roll.
I took at look at all the items on sale for Black Friday, then I compared them to what I could buy them for on-line at Amazon and Newegg.com, and I bought on-line. Sorry Best Buy, you were beat out cheaper prices on-line.
Maybe OT maybe not UK govt. takes majority stake in RBS
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group said Friday the British government will take majority control of the bank -- buying close to a 60 percent stake -- after its shareholders shunned a stock offering.
Mall traffic this morning in Atlanta was running between a high of 80% full to a low of 40% full (depending on the location). Interestingly, the lowest trafficked mall was Perimeter Mall, which is in one of the highest income areas.
And There Came Upon Them
Black Friday
Joy To the World
Cyber Monday
A Shining Star
Midnight Madness
Tis the Season
Abandon all Reason
Switchblade Charge Cards
Stroller Rammers
Mall Jammers
Wal-Mart Murder Sales
Tip the Scales
Shop Till You Drop
Our Salvation
Prestidigitizer Levitation
Saves our Nation
No Child Left Behind, save The One
Save The One....
The Reason For The Season
Alone
Forgotte
Show Me The Pony, it will be interesting to see the traffic versus sales. I wonder if it's more looking for deals and bargains versus the spend on anything and everything we've witnessed in prior years?
I wonder how it is at Lenox Square Mall? That's situated in a High Rent District, as well.
The commission recommended that Ecuador default on $3.9 billion in foreign commercial debts--Global Bonds 2012, 2015 and 2030--the result of debts restructured in 2000 after the country's 1999 default......The commission accused Salomon Smith Barney, now part of Citigroup Inc., of handling the 2000 restructuring without Ecuador's authorization, leading to the application of 10 and 12 percent interest rates.
I can understand Ecuador having to pay higher interest rates due to previous defaults. But I can't understand why the U.S. government didn't charge Citigroup a similar dividend/interest rate when we bailed them out once again.
This crisis hasn't permeated through to low ticket items yet....but, it will, give it a few more months. Next year will be the real Bomb...one like we've never witnessed, contemporarily.
Entering bankruptcy is a strategy to break long term store leases with lower fee payouts to landlords. A bad black Friday at specific stores with no evidence to suggest an uptick in the economy would be justification to break the leases in bankruptcy court.
I worked at a high tech company in 2001 that used a very similar strategy effectively to break its lease -- despite having $13 million in cash more than its liabilities.
That wal-mart story is absolutely sickening. Stampede someone to death - and for what? To save a few bucks?
The U.S.A. has lost its way - seems to be following the road to Rome (via Japan perhaps)? It's very sad to watch.
(So where can I short the CDO of CDS created by the hedge -short sovereign CDS- against the 'full faith and credit' synthetics? - AM)
November 28, 2008
By KELLIE GERESSY
WSJ
A fresh asset class is quickly carving a new niche for itself on Wall Street.
In just two days, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. sold a cumulative $17.25 billion of government-guaranteed bank bonds as part of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program.
The program has opened the financing door for banks that were otherwise shut out from repaying or refinancing debt as a result of the credit crisis.
This kind of story irks me. The truth is that in a genuinely bad market the landlord also loses power. Who am I going to put in that spot? Tenants can go to their landlords and negotiate lower terms. If a tenant's business is so bad they're breaking leases, then the cost of shutdowns is the least of their problems. That's what Ch11 is for and the bankruptcy court will allow them to reject any leases they want without payment.
Comrade Swan - loved this money quote in the article:
Mitch Stapley, chief fixed income officer for Fifth Third Bank, who has bought some of the new bonds, classifies them as better yielding Treasury bonds.
"With yields on Treasury bonds that can make a goat just about choke, these are a no-brainer alternative," he said.
Hub came back from the Shopping Wars. Bought nothing. Parking lots jammed. Lots of sales people. Good stuff gone. He got a rain check for a $7.00 item. Circuit City tried to rip him off. He declined to buy.
just back from scout trip to Wallie World and the local General Growth mall property. Less people, no buying. Anchor stores being used as conduit to boutiques. Sears looks awful, stuff in soft goods that's been there over a year, still there doing it's best to look like this year. And their appliance section is like a cave or a corn maze. seems they decided that if the goobers don't get it by now, we want you to buy the front loaders. Stacked and racked and desperate, the same desperate people, desperately putting the brave face outward. Wallie World, lots less than last year, still a steady heavy of 25 to 33 percent of lot full, the old timers say for sure, lots less. BTW: the hottest action at Wallie World was around the sale of DVD's. Didn't catch the offer, just spotted the activity. One cashier I spoke with said she seeing more cash and less credit. Gradual change still happening, moving up to about half the till being cash. Way up dfrom where the move started.
I worked at a high tech company in 2001 that used a very similar strategy effectively to break its lease -- despite having $13 million in cash more than its liabilities.
Stephen Purpura | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 11:22 am | #
The most recent BK reform makes that strategy 'unlikely' to deliver benefits - not if they hold cash like that going into BK today.
After filing they can carry cash if provided as part of the DIP package & the judge deems it a necessary part of the business restructuring - but no judge today would let a cash heavy company wash itself clean in reorg unless liabilities were well in excess of assets and even then the cash going in would end up with the creditors.
it will be interesting to see the traffic versus sales.
My wife and SIL did the 5am Walmart shopping trip this morning. Walmart was out of the big ticket sale items and they didn't buy. They walked out with only a few pieces of clothing for the kids. The TV purchase can wait until a store has in stock at the right price.
Regarding breaking leases, the threat of bankruptcy will be enough to bring many landlords to the negotiating table. Better to deal with the devil you know than take a chance in bankruptcy court.
oh, yeah, lot census at mall. Wallie World was 25 to 30 percent full. The mall was full, but was certainly way down in terms of predator parkers, cruising for a spot and cutting people off and generally being filled with the spirit of the season. Not at all like last year which met expectations.
The chains should import (H1-B) some mideast/asian haggle sellers, and make their crap into "what would you be willing to pay?" material. Forget the 20% off the 60% off sales banners.
I have to go to Home Depot....normally I wouldn't go near a store on today but a project I am working on is stuck until I get a new screw driver.
I'll let you know what I see.
re the walmart story.....sad but not entirely unexpected....now if it were at Macy's or Bloomy's then that would be "breaking news".....at Wal Mart one must consider the "clientele".
Thanks VV. Forgive my stupidity, why more cash? Credit cards max'ed out, no availability of credit or fear?
Comrade Peronista | 11.28.08 - 11:40 am
Yeah, you're stupid alright, if by stupid you mean in a manner by which I am tall and good looking.
And forgive me as well, but aren't those three things all one and the same, as much part as parcel to the current situation. Except it reports from an altitude where most of you great thinkers don't fly. She wasn't running a register, she was the cashier. And her name tag said so. She's the one that counts the take, resolves discrepancies, makes the numbers match. She's the one who is a bit more smart than the average bear.
Banks and S&Ls should have black friday events for SAVERS. Get your CD at 1% above normal. Imagine being trampled by savers rushing the bank counters at 5AM.
Wal Mart totally creates the frenzy by advertising products all over the place but only stocking 5 of them in the actual store.
If that is not pre-meditated.....
You couldn't pay me to step foot in one of them. BTW they'll have there problems soon.....will be a decent short most likely in the later half of next year.
I think the retail numbers won't be blowout, but I would be surprised to find them down a lot this season. The recession is still not deeply settled in or even widely acknowledged yet. As unemployment rises above 7%, then the previously profitable retailers will start fall. To date, the failures have been those retailers that were going to fail anyway, even in the absence of the financial crisis.
Some of the Black Friday reporting on CNBC is so narrow, it's surreal. A few hours ago, one of their reporters mentioned the use of credit cards during the early hours of the shopping day.
How could they know? Why would it matter?
I know the answer --- they need to fill air-time with something --- but there are times when the ratio of trees to forest boggles the mind.
As one of the few english speaking visitors to Wally Mart Oxnard this morning I can report brisk sales. Likewise the Fry's Electronics was insane. Probably 2000 people in the checkout line. 40 inch vicinity flat screens seem to be the big item at Fry's, 32 inch at Wally's.
As to CRE sub-lets; I didn't know magical pink rainbow fairy dust ponies knew how to bail.
(Amen brother. Please visit Citizen Jesse's website, see link to right, to reflect upon referenced chart - AM)
Jesse:
'One can quibble with the details, and even make the case that any expenditures financed by debt are of equal economic value, that there is no difference between pure consumption and greed, and productive investment in infrastructure. That there exists no good or evil and that justice has no penalty or value.
But one has to ask what could have been accomplished, what great achievements could we have endowed to posterity, if we had only restrained the greed of Wall Street and the corruption of the world's economy through the US dollar as its reserve currency which permitted the almost unrestrained creation of debt by a succession of narcissists and sociopaths?
If this chart is not shocking, does not sicken you at heart, repulse you, fill you with righteous anger, make you feel ashamed, then you may no longer be human.
What you said - any that have blogs, link to that post - I did that plus reposted the graphic under..."Can you say opportunity cost? I knew that you could!"
My teen met her friends before 5 a.m. to go Black Friday shopping. Is it becoming a recreational event rather than a financial one? They're doing their part to lift the recession. Thanks to babysitting $$.
Outsider(Unrated) writes:
My teen met her friends before 5 a.m. to go Black Friday shopping. Is it becoming a recreational event rather than a financial one? They're doing their part to lift the recession. Thanks to babysitting $$.
Outsider | 11.28.08 - 12:28 pm | #
My son is on the other side of the transaction - working retail and had to go in at 4AM to open at 5AM for others like your daughter.
According to him that is exactly the case - it's a social phenom not a sound 'business strategy'. He says after the rush (say the first few hours) it then slows down a lot.By noon its just another day at the mall.
I have said a number of times Russia - but mostly those formerly called eastern european states - will be the pivot point as defaults errupt and currencies head south.
Police say a Wal-Mart worker has died after being trampled by a throng of unruly shoppers shortly after the Long Island store opened today.
Nassau County police say the 34-year-old worker was taken to a hospital where he was pronounced dead at about 6 a.m., an hour after the store opened. The cause of death was not immediately known.
A police statement says a throng of shoppers "physically broke down the doors, knocking him to the ground." Police also say a 28-year-old pregnant woman was taken to a hospital for observation.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., in Bentonville, Ark., would not confirm the reports of a stampede during the day-after-Thanksgiving bargain hunting, but said a "medical emergency" caused them to close the store.
Anyway, what surprised me as much as anyone can be surprised anymore is the sudden sprouting of several Massachusetts banks on the list. We haven't talked about the New England states what with all the Cali, Georgia, Fla SHTF. Is this a solid trend?
The question confronting the Church today is not any longer whether the man in the street can grasp a religious message, but how to employ the communications media so as to let him have the full impact of the Gospel message. - Pope John Paul II
The parallels are disturbing. Marshall McLuhan was right. Shudder.
I live in western Connecticut. Residential real estate was a big bubble here, too. Sales volume and home prices have fallen off a cliff since 2006, and, in my opinion, still have quite a ways to fall. It would not surprise me if banks here start going under.
What's sickening is the way Corporate aids and abets these mob scenes at their stores and then puts stock boys on the front lines to hold back the animals.
Anyway, what surprised me as much as anyone can be surprised anymore is the sudden sprouting of several Massachusetts banks on the list. We haven't talked about the New England states what with all the Cali, Georgia, Fla SHTF. Is this a solid trend?
Commissar Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 12:40 pm | #
I heard that the Lenox Square open air lot was full, but that there was plenty of deck parking. I agree with you that it will be interesting to see how many purchases, other than door buster sale items, are actually made.
Poway Walmart, 300th in line @ 4:30am. There were more than a dozen of 42'' panasonic LCD's @ $598 when I walked by the bin. They seemed to have all the door buster items available around 5:30am. Got some vtech stuff for the kids at %50 off.
Office depot, 6:30am. 30 people in the line, 3-4 roaming around the store. DVD player does not support DivX, walked out.
Staples, 7:00am. Genuine Staples experience, 60 minutes to process 40 people in the line, before I bought a mouse for $14 (regularly sells for $41, meets criteria for this year's white elephant).
Sport's Authority, 8:am. No lines, 20+ people in the store. Tennis balls @ 65% off sold out.
Obviously: After purchasing an asset, the owner enters a long-term agreement by which the property is leased back to the seller, at an agreed-to rate. One reason for a leaseback is to transfer ownership to a holding company while keeping proper track of the ongoing worth and profitability of the asset. Another is for the seller to raise money by offloading a valuable asset to a buyer that is presumably interested in making a long-term secured investment. Sale Leaseback arrangements are common in the REIT industry.
Yancey,
Former West Springfield here. Yes, my "surprise" was at how long the triple/quad bubble lasted. The 4 horsemen in this region; Hartford, Greater Boston, Cape, Providence area. Sure Worcester, Springfield, Nashua and others participated but anybody like my sister buying on the Cape Spring '07 has got to be in a world of hurt. Now we have the secondary effects taking hold particularly because of the rapidly aging demographic. And even the stats are not telling the story. So many have retired to SC, FL, AZ, etc that those aging in place are the exception yet still they are losing the productive segments of society.
I am getting very frustrated today. I wanted to buy some Johnson Matthney 10oz silver bars and I called around all the local coin/jewelry shops and they are all out. Nothing available. I have spent about an hour online and IF a dealer has those bars available, they want around $150 per bar, or about 50% OVER SPOT price. Anyone have any better ideas I can try?
Anyway, what surprised me as much as anyone can be surprised anymore is the sudden sprouting of several Massachusetts banks on the list. We haven't talked about the New England states what with all the Cali, Georgia, Fla SHTF. Is this a solid trend?
Commissar Rob Dawg
OnTheRun(Unrated) writes:
So if stocks continue south, bonds crash, wonder where the financial genius parading thru cnbc will tell people to put their money then? camping gear?
OnTheRun | 11.28.08 - 12:49 pm | #
I've been long camping gear since the late 1960s - when I first started getting an allowance for mowing the lawn.
Michael Knot Green Street Advisors
Nelson, first question, what gives you confidence that '09 will be a better environment than today given the [CNBF] problems that may come down the pipe, even all the way out through 2012?
Nelson Rising
Well, I don't think I said '09, I said the end of '09. Clearly there's a lot of dark clouds out there for our sector. There's no question about that. And if one looks at the macro-economic situation, Krugman said the other night that he thought we might have a recession similar to the 1982 as a result of all these activities.
And in 1982 we had an employment of 10.7%. So, I mean if theres one Nobel Prize winner who thinks that we may have some very difficult times so Im not suggesting that 09 is going to be better. I am suggesting that because we do have some breathing room to get through 09 thats where I was headed with it.
I wish I could say I didnt, I felt that things would be better in 09, they wont be and in your right the [CNBF] situation is something were all looking at. We have several securitized loans that were going to be dealing with there have been very few.
I think there is one that I am aware of, securitized loan, that has been a problem asset. But we know theyre out there and so thats a black cloud and I wont deny that.
I am getting very frustrated today. I wanted to buy some Johnson Matthney 10oz silver bars and I called around all the local coin/jewelry shops and they are all out. Nothing available. I have spent about an hour online and IF a dealer has those bars available, they want around $150 per bar, or about 50% OVER SPOT price. Anyone have any better ideas I can try?
JJL | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 1:08 pm
Put on something sexy, show some leg and wait by the hydrant. Exchange your services for 10 ounce bars. You set the rate.
JJL writes:
Anyone have any better ideas I can try?
JJL | 11.28.08 - 1:08 pm
Seriously? eBay.
Less Seriously? Apmex.com
Also, the 50% above spot is probably the best you will do in that category. The small/individual retailer is pretty much unable to get SLV at anything close to spot unless you are living in a large and/or bubble market.
I'm working on building up a collection of silver eagles/maple leaves and junk silver. The only local dealer sells these items at 18+/oz which leaves me spending time placing bids on eBay to set my final price and see how it all shakes out.
Unless you are dropping coin for 500+ oz at time, Paying 16-18 USD/oz is "Spot".
i>I've been long camping gear since the late 1960s - when I first started getting an allowance for mowing the lawn. - dryfly
Can you believe the stuff you can get these days with massively devalued dollars for so cheap?
Remember saving up for a Campmor or Gleason's order? The equipment is so cheap these days that single use versus long term storage costs is an issue. Except of course climbing gear.
Oh Oh. I spent ZERO this Black Friday. Hope they weren't counting on my contribution. In fact, I spent this AM selling shares to Black Friday shoppers.
We have however many loans in the portfolio where we have to deal with the servicer and the [CNBF] or securitized situation. So theyre all different but we are working very, very diligently in trying to do this and in some loans the pain is not yet there for us because we have interest reserves and that in many cases letting those interest reserves be utilized makes the lender more likely to settle with us on an attractive basis.
Sliver bullion & junk sliver can be bought for next to spot @ <a href="http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_bags.php>NWTM free shipping, possibly long wait
I'd rather take an ass beating then go out in one of those flee bags with a bunch of dipshits. I decided to stay home short the hell out of a few of them instead.
JJL writes:
Rip off all the way. I just wanted some bars to clank together, I have 3 of the 10oz. Oh well.
JJL | 11.28.08 - 1:17 pm
From my experiences, there is an eBay "sweet spot" when buying multiple bars or coins--shipping costs included.
e.g.
If you want a single Silver Eagle, look to drop anywhere from 17-24 USD for a coin.
If you want 2 Silver Eagles, look to drop anywhere from 34-38 USD (Avg. Cost: 18 USD)
There are outliers to this process, but it depends on multiple things like seller's rating, quality of coins, quality of coin photo (if applicable).
Bottom Line: As you move up the size of the order from a few ounces up to sizeable orders, the cost moves closer and closer to spot circa ComEx. For those people like me that are doing the Sharebuilder way of amassing PM, look to pay a premium for the honor to do it...
Remember saving up for a Campmor or Gleason's order? The equipment is so cheap these days that single use versus long term storage costs is an issue. Except of course climbing gear.
Commissar Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 1:15 pm | #
It really is amazing Dawg... especially the ultralight stuff you used to have to pay an arm & a leg for. Now its hightech engineered materials my min-wage kids can afford EASILY.
Anecdotal - Daughter home from college for the Holiday weekend. She goes to school in Manhattan. Says the retail environment appears to be as strong as ever in NYC. Says that even in her econ class the prof. talks about visiting area retailers and they all say things are rosy. I visited her in early October and it seemed that way as well but that was before a lot of sh*t hit the fan. But I guess Manhattan may be exempt from a lot of the ordinary belt tightening that happens elsewhere.
This seems to be related to retail lease problems:
Commerce National Bank Announces Third Quarter 2008 Results
For the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, the Bank reported net income of $254,000 as compared to $702,000 for the same period in 2007. For the three month period ended September 30, 2008, the Bank reported a net loss of $152,000 as compared to net income of $294,000 for the same period in 2007. In recognition of the uncertain economic times impact on its loan portfolio, for the three and nine month periods ended September 30, 2008, respectively, the Bank recorded provisions for loan and lease losses of $375,000 and $702,000 as compared to the recording of $80,000 and $244,000 for the similar periods in 2007.
Joe(Unrated) writes:
Anecdotal - Daughter home from college for the Holiday weekend. She goes to school in Manhattan. Says the retail environment appears to be as strong as ever in NYC. Says that even in her econ class the prof. talks about visiting area retailers and they all say things are rosy. I visited her in early October and it seemed that way as well but that was before a lot of sh*t hit the fan. But I guess Manhattan may be exempt from a lot of the ordinary belt tightening that happens elsewhere.
Joe | 11.28.08 - 1:25 pm | #
Can you really bestow blessings on an Atheist? I'm a strong Agnostic, but I don't accept any blessings bestowed on me by believers. Thanks, but no thanks.
There is no "possibly" to it. The wait time for orders is 3-4 weeks on the short side. Places like the US Mint stopped honoring orders placed after March 31, 2008 meaning you can only get some/most 2008 coin offerings second hand if you didn't jump on it right away. I imagine that the order window for the 2009 series will be even shorter. Inversely, I imagine the wait time for 2009 orders will be longer.
Second hand markets like eBay are the only places that seem to have quick turnaround--if that doesn't make your mind hurt thinking about it.
While there is a constant battle going on between the 'bugs and the 'boo-ers, the actual market sign show that mints & miners can't keep up with demand. It is almost gotten me thinking that the some of the 'boo-ers are just like the Pump & Dumps down on the Street.
Following the metal, not the contracts, and see where it takes you.
Joe - I have family in NYC area too. Sells to retailers in the city. He is one of his companies top RMs and he is down 8-10% compared to plan (which wasn't overly optimistic this year at all)... their only saving grace is that they too (like my son's employer her in Minnesota) cut head count BEFORE the got red ink - so he says they are okay for now. Not growing but not losing money.
Still 10% off plan.
And I wonder if those who were axed feel it is as rosy? Ya think?
Dryfly - It was anecdotal, nothing more. Not trying to build a case. The amount of retail activity I witnessed in Oct. was genuinely surprising however.
It really is amazing Dawg... especially the ultralight stuff you used to have to pay an arm & a leg for. Now its hightech engineered materials my min-wage kids can afford EASILY. - dryfly
Word. Sometimes I "do the math" and amortize the engineering content over 100,000 or a million or even 10 million units and just cannot even cover those costs with the retail price.
Just remember, no matter how bad things get here in SoCal versus "Flyover America" I live 10 miles away from "Real Cheap Sports" and can visit any day of the year in shorts and t-shirt.
Checking the Black Friday deals online again this morning, very disapointing.
But CNBC was just interviewing some tard buying 3 TV's, wall mounts, and DVD players. The reporter asked the guy how much he thinks he saved by buying today, he said 10%.
10%!
You can buy at amazon without even trying and beat best buy prices. But I guarantee you the stores aren't getting me out of the house for a measley 10%. Some people enjoy getting retailed.
Someone has already mentioned it, but to get "close" to spot prices you have to be a bulk buyer of PMs. With any commodity, there is a price to be paid for the right to buy smaller lots.
Recessions are great times to immerse in higher education. By the time you get out you are buying into a growing economy that has been flushed of excess.
In the 80s my aerospace was a ticket. In the 90s tech, then bio-tech. The problem was all that time the financial "engineers" were busy absconding with the gravy.
With regard to Manhattan, I have rather a different story to tell. The stores on Madison and Fifth are empty. Even the people who have the money are less interested in squandering and flaunting it. Neither the investment bankers nor the Europeans are buying the way they did last year. It is also much easier to get a cab than it was at this time last year.
News from teen's front lines after getting back at 1 p.m.:
Very crowded. Deals were sold out quickly. The rest of the sales were not earth shattering. Macy's gave out energy drinks and Craisins. Would not do it again unless there was a specific item in mind. (Appears to have been exhausting.)
Watching CNBC today I get the feeling (to borrow from PCA last night GWTW comment) they are still trying to beat the consumer pony even though it has fallen and can't get up.
Volker the Viking writes:
I am getting very frustrated today. I wanted to buy some Johnson Matthney 10oz silver bars and I called around all the local coin/jewelry shops and they are all out. Nothing available. I have spent about an hour online and IF a dealer has those bars available, they want around $150 per bar, or about 50% OVER SPOT price. Anyone have any better ideas I can try?
Volker, Kitco.com has a user forum where many users buy, sell and trade with low premiums. You might want to check it out. Works for me when local dealers are short of stock.
The governments today know not from whence their power comes."
Not the taxpayer (I mean the ones that actually pay taxes). Their powere comes from bloated government employee unions that re-elect them in return for DBPs (a SoCal perspective). When will this corrupt cycle be broken?
Just remember, no matter how bad things get here in SoCal versus "Flyover America" I live 10 miles away from "Real Cheap Sports" and can visit any day of the year in shorts and t-shirt.
Commissar Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 1:42 pm | #
Well Rob 'cheap sports' are literally out my back door and I don't mind the weather and I don't have to share them with about 10 million others.
On the other hand people still hunt all around here and there are some weeks where I think your chances are better in a battle zone than walking around the woods out here. Riffle/shotgun deer season specifically - I stay in those weeks.
Outsider(Unrated) writes:
News from teen's front lines after getting back at 1 p.m.:
Very crowded. Deals were sold out quickly. The rest of the sales were not earth shattering. Macy's gave out energy drinks and Craisins. Would not do it again unless there was a specific item in mind. (Appears to have been exhausting.)
Outsider | 11.28.08 - 1:56 pm | #
Now the question is to wait until next year & see if the lesson was actually learned.
Riffle/shotgun deer season specifically - I stay in those weeks.
Heard about the farmer tired of having his livestock shot every season? He decided to paint "goat," "cow, "horse," etc. on them. Only casualty that season? His John Deere tractor. [rimshot]
The blogger below is the best trader in the world. Check it for yourself. For few hours he has been trading live. He made more that two dozen trades, ALL profitable.
He has never failed even in a single trade. NOT A SINGLE LOSING TRADE!
Re: WalMart stampede
Sorry for the man who died, but as usual, the reporting leaves a lot to be desired. Was he trying to hold back the crowd? what for? Why was he at the door and not the manager with the keys? Can't WalMart be sued for inadequate crowd control? 200 people is sufficient to do that much damage unwittingly? Seems like it would take a high proportion to trample someone without malice. If the crowd took the doors off the hinges, why weren't people crushed against the doors?
And mostly-what on earth did they think they were going to buy that was worth standing outside in line at a WalMart?
Anon, Few minutes after closing the short trade at 9:20PM, we made a series of mirco-short term trades, similiar to what was done earlier today. The difference is that this time the trades are made on long side.
The purpose of these types of trades is to show you an example of how to trade at a top, between a top and bottom, and in a bottom!
Volker, Kitco.com has a user forum where many users buy, sell and trade with low premiums. You might want to check it out. Works for me when local dealers are short of stock.
Traunche Coat Mafia | 11.28.08 - 1:59 pm
You're not real quick on the uptake, are you? Try reading the entire post. What you quote as being said by me is wrong, those were jjl's words. So how about it now?
If the crowd took the doors off the hinges, why weren't people crushed against the doors?
sdtfs | 11.28.08 - 2:16 pm | #
the automatic doors on most big boxes like walmart are not hinged in the same way that your front door is. even when the doors are locked a small child could push the doors in/out. i don't know for sure but i'd bet it has something to do with fire escape.
No Black Friday shopping here either, but I did take the tween to the theater. I was shocked! We left early as I was expecting horrible traffic & parking nightmares.
Roads were fine & the parking lot, while crowded, was managable - got a spot right away.
The people I saw going back to their cars were not ladened with packages - the most I saw was 3 bags.
btw - this is the outlet just south of DC.
You're not real quick on the uptake, are you? Try reading the entire post. What you quote as being said by me is wrong, those were jjl's words. So how about it now?
Volker the Viking
Whoops, I'm a casual browser of the comments. I haven't been tracking impersonators. Never mind.
Failed economies are leading towards failed societies. Nationalism is making a big comeback after globalization failed. The attacks in Mumbai have tremendous impacts on our large corporations.
Geopolitical instability is scaring me much more than worrying about my job. Pakistan and Russia are nuclear powers and both are heading for economic collapse. Pakistan is turning in a radical Islamic direction. Russia will not be humiliated by the West a second time.
The period of failed leadership here in the US waiting for Obama to take control is a sign of weakness. The DOD has been under cyber attack for the last few days starting right before the Mumbai attacks. Eastern Asia has several countries with armed resistance challenging the governments. Let food supplies diminish due to the loss of LOC and you have a tinderbox ready to burst into flame. Interesting times indeed.
The governments today know not from whence their power comes."
Not the taxpayer (I mean the ones that actually pay taxes). Their powere comes from bloated government employee unions that re-elect them in return for DBPs (a SoCal perspective). When will this corrupt cycle be broken?
Even a corrupt government can stay in power so long as they're clever about it.
What's more interesting is to see governments intentionally breaking down the social and legal structures on which their power is built in the name of maintaining power.
The thing to be concerned about now is that they suddenly wake up and realize what they're doing and revert to military force and some form of police state to make up for the vacuum in their credibility.
I personally think people should be less worried about keeping their jobs and more worried about preventing a situation where a country can only hold itself together through force, coercion, and monopolistic control over the flow of information.
When social and legal contracts are seen merely as impediments to power and status quo dark days are at hand...
"I personally think people should be less worried about keeping their jobs and more worried about preventing a situation where a country can only hold itself together through force, coercion, and monopolistic control over the flow of information."
Interesting thought, but too late. Harry Schultz worked for years to prevent what is happening. About a year ago he advised his readers to stop trying to prevent the fascist creep, and to fend for themselves. In his view, the point of no return had been reached.
"As we enter the sputtering last days of late capitalism, the messages from the powers that be become more and more absurd. Drill! Buy! Bail! These are the panicky cries of the masters of an unravelling economic system based on exponential growth."
--The Automatic Earth
The DOD has been under cyber attack for the last few days starting right before the Mumbai attacks. Eastern Asia has several countries with armed resistance challenging the governments
No privateer, but we do have 2 1/2 acres, which is enough for the hub and son to practice driving and chipping. No green tho.
the house was formerly owned by a high school football coach and he advertised it as being longer that 2 football fields. They had dreadful taste. Screaming gator orange master bedroom rug for example. Gave me an excuse to redo everything.
Also, was cheap, relatively. Now the redoing needs doing again. Oh,well.
'Now we want to take debt off the balance sheet by putting the full faith and credit behind it, i.e., synthethic Treasuries. The last bubble is the FISCALBUBBLE.
When it pops so do we, for it is our balance sheet that will 'blow up'. - AM)
A nugget from Dr. Doom&Gloom [his comments]
Alan Greenspan, during a question answer season in London,Novemeber 2007 midnight California time, in which he said, "During early 1990s the money supply numbers stopped working [money supply was growing but banks were reluctant to lend]. We [Fed] put buckets of money out there [in the banks, similar to what the Fed is trying to do now] and it didn't work. It was only after Wall Street came up with more [or newer] CDO products ["innovations" in securitization of debt] and took debt off the banks' balance sheets that banks started to lend again and the economy began to respond."
I agree with ac's outlook. I had hoped for a controlled collapse with a drastic decrease in our standard of living. I now hope for a collapse without nuclear war.
Universal default and debt forgiveness for the world. Long shot for a semblance of civilization going forward.
Yep, I'm here, and I made a note of it when Y.T. asked. Great idea. If I have time, it'll make it into the next rev.
Ken, can you create a bubble we can put over our heads kind of like the one Sandy in SpongeBob has? Can you design it so we only read and hear our own comments? That would be super neato great if you could. Thanks in advance.
The Great Reckoning predicted a general rise in violence as the hegemonic power breaks down.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 3:35 pm | #
Pakistan is a big wildcard. Ever since they lost East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), they've united the country under the armed forces with the dream of a pan-islamic state. All this is meant to obscure the significant cultural, <a href=http://www.rrcap.unep.org/lc/cd/html/countryrep/pakistan/map12.JPG">environmental and economic striations in Pakistan. Unfortunately when people can't work, can't eat the federal government has no chance.
I assume he was a gator fan. My daughter went to the U of Fla at Gainesville, but was never very interested in football. Lives in Boston, and compelled to be a Sox fan.
And green and gold can be pretty colors. Screaming orange is ugly even on football uniforms. The other rugs they picked out were a paen (?) to shag ugliness.
Don't know what the squirrels eat. The racoons like the citrus and tear it apart with their clever little hands. The farther south you go, the rattier the squirrels look. In Miami, there aren't many and they all look diseased.
ac- I'm going shopping,...I'm not going to buy anything. As Thoreau said,"A man is rich in proportion to those things he can do without." Makes me feel rich to look at all the stuff I can do without.
Also, as far as blessings go, what it means to me is that someone is thinking kindly of me. Namely Pavel. How could anyone object to that?
Now, the church back in the day was smart. I think that it was quickly forgotten, if anyone ever knew, what date Jesus was born on. (I did read one modestly convincing thing about how Jewish royalty had sex at certain times, but who knows) Being smart, they chose the time used by the Romans as Saturnialia. Big long party. Also, pagans always celebrated winter solstice. Why have people forgo a big fun party with gifts and drinking etc, etc. when you could try to co-opt it? So I think the real reason for the season is Saturnalia and solstice, and therefore, Christmas as celebrated has more to do with those 2 things than Christianity. In a sense, Saturnalia has co-opted Christianity, not the other way around.
I think that there is no objective reality behind the words "blessings of god", but if a belief in that causes someone to feel good and wish others to feel good and be happy too, well who cares about objective reality, I'll take fantasy every time.
Which is not to say that people worshiping the accumulation of stuff is a good idea either. There is this concept known as "enough", which most people don't seem to get. Probably because most people evolved to pursue more because they have virtually nothing, and more than nothing is nearly always good.
"Chekhov said, "If there's a gun on the wall at the beginning of the play, by the end it must go off." In the world's nuclear arsenal are many guns on the wall. If life copies art, will there be an Act 3 in which the players, having learned their lesson the hard way, live sustainably?"
EHP, interesting article, I'm surprised that anybody admitted The Plan to this detail.
The new map fits in with the idea of greater cultural granularity. There's an interplay of economic forces versus cultural forces going on. Great Reckoning predicted increasing granularity and I believe the Internet is one force which promotes it.
Each new cultural interface increases total transaction csots. But... it also creates a set of jobs associated with the interface.
If I were one of the Masters Of The Universe and I believe that the net balance of forces was pushing for greater cultural granularity, I might try to to a controlled decontruction of my potential enemies first.
Very interesting confirmation of my thoughts from three years ago.
I agree with ac's outlook. I had hoped for a controlled collapse with a drastic decrease in our standard of living. I now hope for a collapse without nuclear war.
Universal default and debt forgiveness for the world. Long shot for a semblance of civilization going forward.
Humans can withstand tremendous hardship remarkably well. We're built for it -- remember it wasn't that long ago that people got to see half the people they knew die in famines or plagues.
In some sense the concern about depression bugs me because we're a fantastically rich nation and if you lop 20% off the GDP we're still a fantastically rich nation.
The problems seem to really arise when there's the sense that those hardships are borne unjustly or unequally (whether or not the perception is actually correct). I think that's one of the real liabilities of these bailouts and why it's possible that they could in a sense "fail" even if they help prop up the economy.
Also with regard to the nuclear weapons -- I think that's the nightmare scenario that makes many economists think we have to prevent a depression. The idea that the collapse of a major economy could put a nukular weapon in the hands of a madman.
I think that's a legitimate concern, though reasons don't necessarily imply solutions.
One day folks might realize that self-organizing structures which were built from the ground up aren't easily held together from the top down.
lawyerliz, move to Ala. These folks are sick re football. Someone once told me (in all seriousness) that the greatest honor for a grad student at the UnivAla was to tutor a member of the football team. Talk about priorities in the wrong place.
I had some snarky comments but I'll keep them to myself for now.
I am in central NJ. I went to a few stores - Macys, Best Buy, Staples earlier today. Parking lots are full and people are shopping, or at least walking around the stores. Interesting thing to me was that the big screen tv aisles at best buy were completely deserted. People were mostly congregating around the cameras and dvds. Staples was completely empty too but they don't seem to have gotten deep into the Black Friday discounts. Just some observations by one dude.. FWIW..
I personally wish college football was eliminated. Or, that the players were paid like pros, instead of being exploited and not educated. And the amounts the coaches make is obscene.
High school football is fun. My son was in the band and his best friend in the band and team, and I used to love to sit next to the band and watch the kid's antics. The team was pretty good too.
Thing is people actually think this is important in the scheme of things.
Ken Cooper said: "Yep, I'm here, and I made a note of it when Y.T. asked."
Ken, CR Companion is a stellar product. In the case of the cited 'offense', it's hard to filter 'Anonymous' because it's a generic handle. A method of filtering with more specificity would be most welcome.
My thanks to you for providing such a wonderful tool.
ac, if i get to keep my job during this downturn I am perfectly fine with a 20% pay cut. It doesn't really work that way though...
If 20% drop in GDP = 20% drop in wages we are fine. If 20% drop in GDP = 20% drop in employment we are in the 1930s with all the associated political instability.
I almost went shopping today by accident. I need to buy some plastic storage containers. Fortunately, I realized what day it is before I ventured out. When the realization struck me, I felt pretty clueless, I must say.
I really cannot understand why anyone would subject themselves to shopping on a day like this.
Yeah, when I'm spending money I'd like people to pay attention to me and act like I was important and even fawn a little. Not like I have to beg them.
And I repeat. Any business model which so heavily relies on not being profitable until the end of November, and relying on shopping binges is a STUPID model.
ac, if i get to keep my job during this downturn I am perfectly fine with a 20% pay cut. It doesn't really work that way though...
If 20% drop in GDP = 20% drop in wages we are fine. If 20% drop in GDP = 20% drop in employment we are in the 1930s with all the associated political instability.
Yeah... that might lead to a much more stable situation. But businesses always like to cut back on employees they feel are less productive and they worry about cutting the salaries or hours of more productive workers for fear of losing them.
How do you convince an entity that exists fundamentally because it is self-serving to act in a non-self-serving way?
We get it, doom and gloom is visible everywhere, thankfully the market now agrees and is on board that we're in a mess. Expectations have rapidly caught up to the horrible reality of the economy after being woefully behind for the last 18 months. It is absorbing nothing but horrible news pretty well.
Unfortunately, the government's involvement is going to cause interesting unintended consequences for a few years to come. The economy will take a while to get even remotely healthy, but our downside pressure is decreasing quickly.
lawyerliz(Unrated) writes:
I personally wish college football was eliminated. Or, that the players were paid like pros, instead of being exploited and not educated. And the amounts the coaches make is obscene.
High school football is fun. My son was in the band and his best friend in the band and team, and I used to love to sit next to the band and watch the kid's antics. The team was pretty good too.
I hear ya. My kids all did sports too... hockey, soccer & swimming as youngsters... cross country running & swimming as high schoolers - they were pretty good too (my daughter was a state champion swimmer - boys were close).
But they have done (or will do - one still in HS) small college 'D3' sports... no scholarships, all fun & no stress. Think of it like intramural teams that get to travel some. They all enjoyed it a bunch... I highly encourage kids to look into that if they go to a small school - even if they aren't real good. Most D3 schools don't cut anyone.
:::::
And I'm no Seminole fan either. Bite your tongue.
My apologies - LOL.
BTW - my wife and I are going to a college hockey game tonight... that is the insanity of choice around here.
WalMart announced last year they were going to build a new store a couple of miles from my house. The neighbors were all totally against it but what does that matter?
Turns out though their proposed store was next door to a huge hospital. The hospital said they didn't care as long as it didn't affect them in their normal day-to-day business. Of course, WalMart blew a lot of smoke (propaganda) about this but still a ten story hospital that'd been around for 50 years does have a bit of priority.
The store has not yet been built (2 years and counting). Could be lousy business atmosphere today or maybe because of the hospital. Probably never will happen now.
Not if she was working in the sugar cane fields of Nicaragua and suffering because of poor working conditions. Blessings are cheap when you patronize their feudal overlord and fail to repudiate what role we played, and play, in destroying their revolution.
Humans can withstand tremendous hardship remarkably well. We're built for it -- remember it wasn't that long ago that people got to see half the people they knew die in famines or plagues.
If people grow up with that hardship they can deal with it. Going from comfortable middle class American living to that would snap a lot of people. Hell, going from middle class American to lower class American will snap a lot of people.
Agree, Captain Fish. If you look closely enough, you can see it already happening. There won't be enough Prozac to go around. There wasn't Prozac during the first Depressions. Just Whiskey and Moonshine, but at least they bit your ass sharply the next day....no such luck with Prozac.
The shoppers broke the doors off their hinges and surged in, toppling a 34-year-old temporary employee who had been waiting with other workers in the stores entryway.
People did not stop to help the employee as he lay on the ground, and they pushed against other Wal-Mart workers who were trying to aid the man. The crowd kept running into the store even after the police arrived, jostling and pushing officers who were trying to perform CPR, the police said.
They were like a stampede, said Nassau Det. Lt. Michael Fleming. Hundreds of people walked past him, over him or around him.
Let this whole damn piece of crap burn to the ground. There isn't anything worth saving.
Agree, Anonymous. When the liquidation begins, it should be these soul-deprived freaks immediately subsequent to the crooks on WallStreet and Capital Hill, if that Faustian bargain had to be made.
On the shopping thing, I had the most curious experience reading to my four year old the other night from a Beatrix Potter collection, "The Tale of Ginger and Pickles"...it spooked me out a bit.
[snip]
(Tabitha Twitchit kept the only other shop in the village. She did not give credit.)
Ginger and Pickles gave unlimited credit.
Now the meaning of "credit" is thiswhen a customer buys a bar of soap, instead of the customer pulling out a purse and paying for itshe says she will pay another time.
And Pickles makes a low bow and says, "With pleasure, madam," and it is written down in a book.
The customers come again and again, and buy quantities, in spite of being afraid of Ginger and Pickles.
But there is no money in what is called the "till."
The customers came in crowds every day and bought quantities, especially the toffee customers. But there was always no money; they never paid for as much as a pennyworth of peppermints.
And a lot of people went nutz after enduring those hardships. Read some stuff written by people who buried all their children after the first visitation of the black plague. Some really thought, with some justification, that all mankind would be wiped out. They got drunk and flagellated themselves and prayed, and killed Jews and shut themselves up and absolutely nothing worked.
In some relatively clean cities only, say 15%, died.
In a world blessed by any kind of superior entity, there would be justice, none of which is evident in plagues.
Justice is a glorious human creation, an art object. As flawed, and believe me I see the flaws, as it is.
I am also not impressed by a universe in which the second law of thermodynamics holds sway. Not to speak of the first and 3rd laws. Poor universe planning.
Actually, why couldn't that poor employee have been Paulson, Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Clinton (both), Dodd, Rubin...or the countless other crooks who deserve this fate as opposed to this guy?
A new form of punishment for these crooks. Face the Wal-Mart stampede. How fitting would that be? We could make a show of it, and place wagers.
LOL! Beatrix Potter wrote children's stories, quite pastoral - yet a theme of this one is granting excessive credit that is non-performing from day one - and the illusion of prosperity (sparked by shopping commentary).
That's the funny thing about movies. Build it, and they will come. Proffer the idea, and it will happen. Think of how many things are coming to fruition that have been proffered in movies and fiction. Farenheit 451, many of the Dick novels...you name it, we are progressing towards it.
I'm not a goddess either, so I can't make the universe.
But I can critque the one that's here.
It's one that displays order, but mostly what I call default order. No design at all, not even a crappy one. Intelligent beings plan and design things, tho they may fail.
My grandad went thru the 3rd grade. He learned to read well and led a fairly successful life.
I grew up in a neighborhood where I had to physically defend myself occasionally. I developed the Death Stare to discourage attacks. Still works. Have had adventures, but don't know if that qualifies me for "being around". Regret nothing.
There are some pretty good physicists who would disagree. Their problem seems to be how to explain the order they find. It's a very unlikely and yet evident order.
There was even a professed atheist physicist named Sir Fred Hoyle, who thought and said that this here universe was designed because it was obvious to anyone who looked at it with a physicist's eye.
I have a buddy who's a well-known astrophysicist. He's got a doctorate in the subject from MIT, and he can tell you how many scientists there are theists of one sort or another, although they don't go around advertising it.
Like I said before, I'm a strong Agnostic. If there is a creator of all "this," who's to say what form that creator takes, if any? Hell, we could be a computer simulation. It's as plausible as the Father, Son and Holy Ghost, or Lord Ganesh.
I read all of that Beatrix Potter story you gave a link to. How apt! I was ready for this sugary addled moral lesson preaching that unlimited credit was the 'right thing' and a winner in the end. Instead it's a sharp little story of how nice people can go out of business if they don't pay attention to making real cash money, and it even throws in for free the lesson that people who require cash payment can be either mean or nice, good business people or bad.
Beatrix Potter for Treasury Secretary! Oops, too late.
I don't think there's any doubt that if the universe isn't designed then there's something very strange going on and we understand nothing about it.
Design doesn't prove the existence of a Creator, though it certainly strongly suggests at least the existence of a creator - small c. For proof of theism there are other avenues.
Liz, it's not a matter of belief. If you look at the fantastic confluence of certain numbers, it's a matter of probability. It's one of the two great puzzles of physics, the other being: Why should there be anything at all?
Mall traffic's becoming an oxymoronical expression. These mall things evolved in the mid-70s, the commercial orientation that followed over the next few decades becoming a perversion of shopping, ie, addressing emotional needs rather than buying what you actually need. Good riddance, albeit at great economic cost to us all, and great emotional cost as we all go cold turkey on shopping ourselves out of the emptiness of modern life. Cheers!
Maybe Black Friday will bail them out?
Good luck with that...
Nyah nyah nya nya nyaaaaah!
What is the opposite of Black Friday? For some it sounds like it will be 'crash and burn' Friday.
Visitor count only 175. Where is everyone? Oh yah, shopping.
Just put it on my tab..
BAILOUTS FOR EVERYONE!
CR - You are making the assumption companies like General will still be in business
Thread music
YouTube - Bach, J.S. - "Air" Orchestral Suite N° 3 in D Major_BWV 1068
Cana lease be serviced under TARP?
India will slip into a recession
horrendous
Livetv.ws - Live tv Resources and Information.
As per Black Friday saving them... Depends how deep their hole is by now.
I posted last night on this - my son works for a retailer at Mall of America (MOA). Their branch isn't doing too badly because their mgmt cut 'labor hours' way early - starting late last summer - and didn't staff up for the holidays. He says they are 'above plan' as measured against sales to labor cost ratios.
He said that is NOT true across the whole company. His company gives store managers quite a bit of leeway to manage & staff... the ones who were 'optimistic' are the ones who are way under their plans. There isn't anywhere near enough Christmas selling season for them to catch up now. Heads will roll.
check my homepage to launch the live CNBC india link
Excellent thread music!
I took at look at all the items on sale for Black Friday, then I compared them to what I could buy them for on-line at Amazon and Newegg.com, and I bought on-line. Sorry Best Buy, you were beat out cheaper prices on-line.
Maybe OT maybe not
UK govt. takes majority stake in RBS
The Royal Bank of Scotland Group said Friday the British government will take majority control of the bank -- buying close to a 60 percent stake -- after its shareholders shunned a stock offering.
CNN.com - Page not found
When will Paulsen eat crow and follow the Brits?
Hey even countries are mailing in the keys.
From Jesse's
Jesse's Café Américain
As Crisis Mounts, Ecuador Declares Foreign Debt Illegitimate and Illegal | World | AlterNet
It's time to start looking for the lifeboats. Don't panic.
We need to cut this Black Friday beef baloney and have a 70% discount for houses and cars - that'll at least get me out shopping.
Mall traffic this morning in Atlanta was running between a high of 80% full to a low of 40% full (depending on the location). Interestingly, the lowest trafficked mall was Perimeter Mall, which is in one of the highest income areas.
As doomy as I am, I wish the lot of you Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year.
God, how I hate gov't.
Nostrovia,
No, this is thread music.
Yen just popped strong to the upside, but along with weak oil, doesn't look good for the sp.
And There Came Upon Them
Black Friday
Joy To the World
Cyber Monday
A Shining Star
Midnight Madness
Tis the Season
Abandon all Reason
Switchblade Charge Cards
Stroller Rammers
Mall Jammers
Wal-Mart Murder Sales
Tip the Scales
Shop Till You Drop
Our Salvation
Prestidigitizer Levitation
Saves our Nation
No Child Left Behind, save The One
Save The One....
The Reason For The Season
Alone
Forgotte
St. Louis Fed: Series: BASENS, St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base
On a brighter note:
The Ruble is collapsing.
Ruble Collapse Prompts Russia to Raise Interest Rates (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Show Me The Pony, it will be interesting to see the traffic versus sales. I wonder if it's more looking for deals and bargains versus the spend on anything and everything we've witnessed in prior years?
I wonder how it is at Lenox Square Mall? That's situated in a High Rent District, as well.
Black Friday indeed....
1 dead, 1 miscarried in Long Island Walmart Black Friday stampede:
Worker dies at Long Island Wal-Mart after being trampled in Black Friday stampede
That oughta help the numbers...will bring in the rubber neckers and gawkers.
It's time to start looking for the lifeboats. Don't panic.
Sorry...3rd Class Steerage has been locked down.
No Lifeboats For You!!!
I went to a Wal-Mart this morning @ 5am, the parking lot was already full.
That was it.
tg is a born & bred looser dop writes:
Hey even countries are mailing in the keys.
And from the article:
The commission recommended that Ecuador default on $3.9 billion in foreign commercial debts--Global Bonds 2012, 2015 and 2030--the result of debts restructured in 2000 after the country's 1999 default......The commission accused Salomon Smith Barney, now part of Citigroup Inc., of handling the 2000 restructuring without Ecuador's authorization, leading to the application of 10 and 12 percent interest rates.
I can understand Ecuador having to pay higher interest rates due to previous defaults. But I can't understand why the U.S. government didn't charge Citigroup a similar dividend/interest rate when we bailed them out once again.
This crisis hasn't permeated through to low ticket items yet....but, it will, give it a few more months. Next year will be the real Bomb...one like we've never witnessed, contemporarily.
Black Friday indeed....
1 dead, 1 miscarried in Long Island Walmart Black Friday stampede:
I guess they had some really killer deals.
Sorry, couldn't resist...
Sure you can, Curious. Think Rubin Sandwich.
Mumbai! "Islam has bloody borders."
Entering bankruptcy is a strategy to break long term store leases with lower fee payouts to landlords. A bad black Friday at specific stores with no evidence to suggest an uptick in the economy would be justification to break the leases in bankruptcy court.
I worked at a high tech company in 2001 that used a very similar strategy effectively to break its lease -- despite having $13 million in cash more than its liabilities.
Yeah...but this isn't 2001. Game's changed....and changing.
That wal-mart story is absolutely sickening. Stampede someone to death - and for what? To save a few bucks?
The U.S.A. has lost its way - seems to be following the road to Rome (via Japan perhaps)? It's very sad to watch.
Imagine the stampedings to come in the lines at the soup kitchens and the bread lines? It's going to be like Soylent Green. Here come the Scoops!
Tail shorting the dog
(So where can I short the CDO of CDS created by the hedge -short sovereign CDS- against the 'full faith and credit' synthetics? - AM)
November 28, 2008
By KELLIE GERESSY
WSJ
A fresh asset class is quickly carving a new niche for itself on Wall Street.
In just two days, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. sold a cumulative $17.25 billion of government-guaranteed bank bonds as part of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program.
The program has opened the financing door for banks that were otherwise shut out from repaying or refinancing debt as a result of the credit crisis.
The first are last...and the last are first.
This kind of story irks me. The truth is that in a genuinely bad market the landlord also loses power. Who am I going to put in that spot? Tenants can go to their landlords and negotiate lower terms. If a tenant's business is so bad they're breaking leases, then the cost of shutdowns is the least of their problems. That's what Ch11 is for and the bankruptcy court will allow them to reject any leases they want without payment.
Comrade Swan - loved this money quote in the article:
Mitch Stapley, chief fixed income officer for Fifth Third Bank, who has bought some of the new bonds, classifies them as better yielding Treasury bonds.
"With yields on Treasury bonds that can make a goat just about choke, these are a no-brainer alternative," he said.
Umm.. where have I heard that before?
Hub came back from the Shopping Wars. Bought nothing. Parking lots jammed. Lots of sales people. Good stuff gone. He got a rain check for a $7.00 item. Circuit City tried to rip him off. He declined to buy.
Totally insane.
Space Coast Florida.
I suppose the opposite of Black Friday would be Red Friday--both for the ink color.
just back from scout trip to Wallie World and the local General Growth mall property. Less people, no buying. Anchor stores being used as conduit to boutiques. Sears looks awful, stuff in soft goods that's been there over a year, still there doing it's best to look like this year. And their appliance section is like a cave or a corn maze. seems they decided that if the goobers don't get it by now, we want you to buy the front loaders. Stacked and racked and desperate, the same desperate people, desperately putting the brave face outward. Wallie World, lots less than last year, still a steady heavy of 25 to 33 percent of lot full, the old timers say for sure, lots less. BTW: the hottest action at Wallie World was around the sale of DVD's. Didn't catch the offer, just spotted the activity. One cashier I spoke with said she seeing more cash and less credit. Gradual change still happening, moving up to about half the till being cash. Way up dfrom where the move started.
They so very much love me there.
I worked at a high tech company in 2001 that used a very similar strategy effectively to break its lease -- despite having $13 million in cash more than its liabilities.
Stephen Purpura | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 11:22 am | #
The most recent BK reform makes that strategy 'unlikely' to deliver benefits - not if they hold cash like that going into BK today.
After filing they can carry cash if provided as part of the DIP package & the judge deems it a necessary part of the business restructuring - but no judge today would let a cash heavy company wash itself clean in reorg unless liabilities were well in excess of assets and even then the cash going in would end up with the creditors.
Thanks VV. Forgive my stupidity, why more cash? Credit cards max'ed out, no availability of credit or fear?
it will be interesting to see the traffic versus sales.
My wife and SIL did the 5am Walmart shopping trip this morning. Walmart was out of the big ticket sale items and they didn't buy. They walked out with only a few pieces of clothing for the kids. The TV purchase can wait until a store has in stock at the right price.
Regarding breaking leases, the threat of bankruptcy will be enough to bring many landlords to the negotiating table. Better to deal with the devil you know than take a chance in bankruptcy court.
oh, yeah, lot census at mall. Wallie World was 25 to 30 percent full. The mall was full, but was certainly way down in terms of predator parkers, cruising for a spot and cutting people off and generally being filled with the spirit of the season. Not at all like last year which met expectations.
The chains should import (H1-B) some mideast/asian haggle sellers, and make their crap into "what would you be willing to pay?" material. Forget the 20% off the 60% off sales banners.
Macy's is doomed, thank the gods.
wonder if today is a bff, or if the FDIC has the weekend off...
I bought my daughter a red iPod nano from the Apple store online. $11 off and free shipping. I am not setting foot in any stores though.
I have to go to Home Depot....normally I wouldn't go near a store on today but a project I am working on is stuck until I get a new screw driver.
I'll let you know what I see.
re the walmart story.....sad but not entirely unexpected....now if it were at Macy's or Bloomy's then that would be "breaking news".....at Wal Mart one must consider the "clientele".
Ciao
MS
Thanks VV. Forgive my stupidity, why more cash? Credit cards max'ed out, no availability of credit or fear?
Comrade Peronista | 11.28.08 - 11:40 am
Yeah, you're stupid alright, if by stupid you mean in a manner by which I am tall and good looking.
And forgive me as well, but aren't those three things all one and the same, as much part as parcel to the current situation. Except it reports from an altitude where most of you great thinkers don't fly. She wasn't running a register, she was the cashier. And her name tag said so. She's the one that counts the take, resolves discrepancies, makes the numbers match. She's the one who is a bit more smart than the average bear.
Banks and S&Ls should have black friday events for SAVERS. Get your CD at 1% above normal. Imagine being trampled by savers rushing the bank counters at 5AM.
Wal Mart totally creates the frenzy by advertising products all over the place but only stocking 5 of them in the actual store.
If that is not pre-meditated.....
You couldn't pay me to step foot in one of them. BTW they'll have there problems soon.....will be a decent short most likely in the later half of next year.
Ciao
MS
The most recent BK reform makes that strategy 'unlikely' to deliver benefits - not if they hold cash like that going into BK today.
Your qualification is noted. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
OT, but what isn't--the squirrels like to chew up only the yellow golf balls that fly themselves into the trees. Only yellow. Not white.
Sometimes they sneak over to the front porch and grab a yellow one too.
Yellow dye, squirrel intoxicant?
Out to ride the hub's golf cart.
Do you live on a golf course?
Sweet.
As for squirrels with yellow golf balls ... they aren't eating them, they're playing them.
It's a squirrel golfer superstition thing.
I think the retail numbers won't be blowout, but I would be surprised to find them down a lot this season. The recession is still not deeply settled in or even widely acknowledged yet. As unemployment rises above 7%, then the previously profitable retailers will start fall. To date, the failures have been those retailers that were going to fail anyway, even in the absence of the financial crisis.
This is just getting started.
There are exceptions of course.
Some of the Black Friday reporting on CNBC is so narrow, it's surreal. A few hours ago, one of their reporters mentioned the use of credit cards during the early hours of the shopping day.
How could they know? Why would it matter?
I know the answer --- they need to fill air-time with something --- but there are times when the ratio of trees to forest boggles the mind.
The Natick MA Wally World was packed this morning. BJ's was not. My sister in law has a hangover. Nothing else to report.
I hope Walmart is held criminally liable in that worker's death.
Perhaps they have dead peasant insurance on that poor slob. Might mitigate the losses.
Rev. Elmer Gantry | 11.28.08 - 11:34 am | #
Hey - riskless return! oh waitasec...
Comrade Peronista(Unrated) writes:
On a brighter note:
The Ruble is collapsing.
Bloomberg.com refer=home
Comrade Peronista | 11.28.08 - 11:14 am | #
And possibly vice a versa.
I think this link was discussed the other night but I did not catch the division between the statists and the globalists.
Professor Igor Panarin: When America fell to pieces the shouting was outrageous - RT
this girl is going kayaking NOT shopping!!
As one of the few english speaking visitors to Wally Mart Oxnard this morning I can report brisk sales. Likewise the Fry's Electronics was insane. Probably 2000 people in the checkout line. 40 inch vicinity flat screens seem to be the big item at Fry's, 32 inch at Wally's.
As to CRE sub-lets; I didn't know magical pink rainbow fairy dust ponies knew how to bail.
PATRIOT.OPTIMIST.OUTRAGED
The mother of all opportunity costs
(Amen brother. Please visit Citizen Jesse's website, see link to right, to reflect upon referenced chart - AM)
Jesse:
'One can quibble with the details, and even make the case that any expenditures financed by debt are of equal economic value, that there is no difference between pure consumption and greed, and productive investment in infrastructure. That there exists no good or evil and that justice has no penalty or value.
But one has to ask what could have been accomplished, what great achievements could we have endowed to posterity, if we had only restrained the greed of Wall Street and the corruption of the world's economy through the US dollar as its reserve currency which permitted the almost unrestrained creation of debt by a succession of narcissists and sociopaths?
If this chart is not shocking, does not sicken you at heart, repulse you, fill you with righteous anger, make you feel ashamed, then you may no longer be human.
Stacked and racked and desperate...
LOL There's the kernel of a decent poem, almost Faulkneresque.
comrade swan,
What you said - any that have blogs, link to that post - I did that plus reposted the graphic under..."Can you say opportunity cost? I knew that you could!"
My teen met her friends before 5 a.m. to go Black Friday shopping. Is it becoming a recreational event rather than a financial one? They're doing their part to lift the recession. Thanks to babysitting $$.
Worker dies at Long Island Wal-Mart after being trampled in Black Friday stampede
Tis the Season. Now I know its Christmas. All these people are Patriots. Shop America
Worker dies at Long Island Wal-Mart after being trampled in Black Friday stampede
Shopping Wars update:
Went out and bought a bag of Pot. Supply down, demand up. Paid a premium
Crowded with buyers in raleigh NC.
Outsider(Unrated) writes:
My teen met her friends before 5 a.m. to go Black Friday shopping. Is it becoming a recreational event rather than a financial one? They're doing their part to lift the recession. Thanks to babysitting $$.
Outsider | 11.28.08 - 12:28 pm | #
My son is on the other side of the transaction - working retail and had to go in at 4AM to open at 5AM for others like your daughter.
According to him that is exactly the case - it's a social phenom not a sound 'business strategy'. He says after the rush (say the first few hours) it then slows down a lot.By noon its just another day at the mall.
tg is a born & bred looser dop
I have said a number of times Russia - but mostly those formerly called eastern european states - will be the pivot point as defaults errupt and currencies head south.
FDIC: Enforcement Decisions and Orders - Recent Orders and Decisions
FDIC's Recent Enforcement Decisions
"As doomy as I am, I wish the lot of you Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year."
God bless you, Misean. Advent begins this Sunday. To non-Christian friends - many blessings.
To non-Christian friends - many blessings
What about the atheists
"My son is on the other side of the transaction - working retail and had to go in at 4AM... "
Same for a nephew of ours in central Pa.
Question if Friday after Thanksgiving is a Pump day what can we read from today?
NRF: SOMALI PIRATE DEMAND WILL OFFSET WEATHER RELATED DOWNTURN IN THANKSGIVING DAY SALE.
To non-Christian friends - many blessings
"What about the atheists"
Yes of course - I think of them as non-Christians. To the atheists too, blessings and very best wishes.
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Shoppers trample Wal-Mart worker to death
Police say a Wal-Mart worker has died after being trampled by a throng of unruly shoppers shortly after the Long Island store opened today.
Nassau County police say the 34-year-old worker was taken to a hospital where he was pronounced dead at about 6 a.m., an hour after the store opened. The cause of death was not immediately known.
A police statement says a throng of shoppers "physically broke down the doors, knocking him to the ground." Police also say a 28-year-old pregnant woman was taken to a hospital for observation.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., in Bentonville, Ark., would not confirm the reports of a stampede during the day-after-Thanksgiving bargain hunting, but said a "medical emergency" caused them to close the store.
That wal-mart story is absolutely sickening
Happens every year. If they called it "the running of the thralls", it would be a tourist attraction.
FFIDC
At least they closed the store.
FFDIC,
There's Alliance on the list right on schedule. Their ORDER seemed particularly harsh. Is it common to essential say the management and board are incompetent? http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/enforcement/2008-10-02.pdf
Anyway, what surprised me as much as anyone can be surprised anymore is the sudden sprouting of several Massachusetts banks on the list. We haven't talked about the New England states what with all the Cali, Georgia, Fla SHTF. Is this a solid trend?
Stacked and racked and desperate...
Found the Faulkner connection from "Light in August"
"stumpocked scene of profound and peaceful desolation"
Hmmm. Maybe that's next year's assessment of the Mall?
The question confronting the Church today is not any longer whether the man in the street can grasp a religious message, but how to employ the communications media so as to let him have the full impact of the Gospel message. - Pope John Paul II
The parallels are disturbing. Marshall McLuhan was right. Shudder.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 12:39 pm | #
That observation makes a profound statement...
So if stocks continue south, bonds crash, wonder where the financial genius parading thru cnbc will tell people to put their money then? camping gear?
What the hell is going on with the long bond today ? Buying on unrest in India ?
Rob Dawg,
I live in western Connecticut. Residential real estate was a big bubble here, too. Sales volume and home prices have fallen off a cliff since 2006, and, in my opinion, still have quite a ways to fall. It would not surprise me if banks here start going under.
bearly
More cash hoarding by banks?
bearly writes:
What the hell is going on with the long bond today ?
Da boyz takin' out da stopz on TBT
Looking at TLT as a proxy, it is currently #9 in "Selling on Strength"...just sayin'
Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
ONLY 26 SHOPPING DAYS TILL FESTIVUS
What's sickening is the way Corporate aids and abets these mob scenes at their stores and then puts stock boys on the front lines to hold back the animals.
Pitchforks,
I look forward to the "Airing of Grievances".
end of month pump on light volume, right on cue
Pavel -
In case it wasn't clear yesterday, I was joking about the neocon thing. I always appreciate your comments here. Best wishes for the holiday season.
MLM
Anyway, what surprised me as much as anyone can be surprised anymore is the sudden sprouting of several Massachusetts banks on the list. We haven't talked about the New England states what with all the Cali, Georgia, Fla SHTF. Is this a solid trend?
Commissar Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 12:40 pm | #
A couple of Texas turds too!
Morocco,
I heard that the Lenox Square open air lot was full, but that there was plenty of deck parking. I agree with you that it will be interesting to see how many purchases, other than door buster sale items, are actually made.
Poway Walmart, 300th in line @ 4:30am. There were more than a dozen of 42'' panasonic LCD's @ $598 when I walked by the bin. They seemed to have all the door buster items available around 5:30am. Got some vtech stuff for the kids at %50 off.
Office depot, 6:30am. 30 people in the line, 3-4 roaming around the store. DVD player does not support DivX, walked out.
Staples, 7:00am. Genuine Staples experience, 60 minutes to process 40 people in the line, before I bought a mouse for $14 (regularly sells for $41, meets criteria for this year's white elephant).
Sport's Authority, 8:am. No lines, 20+ people in the store. Tennis balls @ 65% off sold out.
Small talk - doom and gloom.
FFIDC
Where are bad texas banks located. The link doesnt work
Obviously: After purchasing an asset, the owner enters a long-term agreement by which the property is leased back to the seller, at an agreed-to rate. One reason for a leaseback is to transfer ownership to a holding company while keeping proper track of the ongoing worth and profitability of the asset. Another is for the seller to raise money by offloading a valuable asset to a buyer that is presumably interested in making a long-term secured investment. Sale Leaseback arrangements are common in the REIT industry.
Yancey,
Former West Springfield here. Yes, my "surprise" was at how long the triple/quad bubble lasted. The 4 horsemen in this region; Hartford, Greater Boston, Cape, Providence area. Sure Worcester, Springfield, Nashua and others participated but anybody like my sister buying on the Cape Spring '07 has got to be in a world of hurt. Now we have the secondary effects taking hold particularly because of the rapidly aging demographic. And even the stats are not telling the story. So many have retired to SC, FL, AZ, etc that those aging in place are the exception yet still they are losing the productive segments of society.
I am getting very frustrated today. I wanted to buy some Johnson Matthney 10oz silver bars and I called around all the local coin/jewelry shops and they are all out. Nothing available. I have spent about an hour online and IF a dealer has those bars available, they want around $150 per bar, or about 50% OVER SPOT price. Anyone have any better ideas I can try?
i>A couple of Texas turds too!
FFDIC
You need to stop repeating yourself.
Jezz, I must be getting old. I've seen this movie before. Are Texicans addicted to implosions?
Anyway, what surprised me as much as anyone can be surprised anymore is the sudden sprouting of several Massachusetts banks on the list. We haven't talked about the New England states what with all the Cali, Georgia, Fla SHTF. Is this a solid trend?
Commissar Rob Dawg
It would be really cool if these folks here would do something with bank failure data like they did with the growth of Walmart:
Watching the Growth of Walmart Across America | FlowingData
OnTheRun(Unrated) writes:
So if stocks continue south, bonds crash, wonder where the financial genius parading thru cnbc will tell people to put their money then? camping gear?
OnTheRun | 11.28.08 - 12:49 pm | #
I've been long camping gear since the late 1960s - when I first started getting an allowance for mowing the lawn.
Michael Knot Green Street Advisors
Nelson, first question, what gives you confidence that '09 will be a better environment than today given the [CNBF] problems that may come down the pipe, even all the way out through 2012?
Nelson Rising
Well, I don't think I said '09, I said the end of '09. Clearly there's a lot of dark clouds out there for our sector. There's no question about that. And if one looks at the macro-economic situation, Krugman said the other night that he thought we might have a recession similar to the 1982 as a result of all these activities.
And in 1982 we had an employment of 10.7%. So, I mean if theres one Nobel Prize winner who thinks that we may have some very difficult times so Im not suggesting that 09 is going to be better. I am suggesting that because we do have some breathing room to get through 09 thats where I was headed with it.
I wish I could say I didnt, I felt that things would be better in 09, they wont be and in your right the [CNBF] situation is something were all looking at. We have several securitized loans that were going to be dealing with there have been very few.
I think there is one that I am aware of, securitized loan, that has been a problem asset. But we know theyre out there and so thats a black cloud and I wont deny that.
Maguire Properties Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript -- Seeking Alpha
I am getting very frustrated today. I wanted to buy some Johnson Matthney 10oz silver bars and I called around all the local coin/jewelry shops and they are all out. Nothing available. I have spent about an hour online and IF a dealer has those bars available, they want around $150 per bar, or about 50% OVER SPOT price. Anyone have any better ideas I can try?
JJL | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 1:08 pm
Put on something sexy, show some leg and wait by the hydrant. Exchange your services for 10 ounce bars. You set the rate.
JJL writes:
Anyone have any better ideas I can try?
JJL | 11.28.08 - 1:08 pm
Seriously? eBay.
Less Seriously? Apmex.com
Also, the 50% above spot is probably the best you will do in that category. The small/individual retailer is pretty much unable to get SLV at anything close to spot unless you are living in a large and/or bubble market.
I'm working on building up a collection of silver eagles/maple leaves and junk silver. The only local dealer sells these items at 18+/oz which leaves me spending time placing bids on eBay to set my final price and see how it all shakes out.
Unless you are dropping coin for 500+ oz at time, Paying 16-18 USD/oz is "Spot".
So is today a Bank Holiday from Bank Failure Friday?
i>I've been long camping gear since the late 1960s - when I first started getting an allowance for mowing the lawn. - dryfly
Can you believe the stuff you can get these days with massively devalued dollars for so cheap?
Remember saving up for a Campmor or Gleason's order? The equipment is so cheap these days that single use versus long term storage costs is an issue. Except of course climbing gear.
Oh Oh. I spent ZERO this Black Friday. Hope they weren't counting on my contribution. In fact, I spent this AM selling shares to Black Friday shoppers.
yagij,
I guess eBay is all that can be done. Rip off all the way. I just wanted some bars to clank together, I have 3 of the 10oz. Oh well.
What's up i that reference to CNBF????
We have however many loans in the portfolio where we have to deal with the servicer and the [CNBF] or securitized situation. So theyre all different but we are working very, very diligently in trying to do this and in some loans the pain is not yet there for us because we have interest reserves and that in many cases letting those interest reserves be utilized makes the lender more likely to settle with us on an attractive basis.
Sliver bullion & junk sliver can be bought for next to spot @ <a href="http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_bags.php>NWTM free shipping, possibly long wait
"Maybe Black Friday will bail them out?"
I'd rather take an ass beating then go out in one of those flee bags with a bunch of dipshits. I decided to stay home short the hell out of a few of them instead.
JJL writes:
Rip off all the way. I just wanted some bars to clank together, I have 3 of the 10oz. Oh well.
JJL | 11.28.08 - 1:17 pm
From my experiences, there is an eBay "sweet spot" when buying multiple bars or coins--shipping costs included.
e.g.
If you want a single Silver Eagle, look to drop anywhere from 17-24 USD for a coin.
If you want 2 Silver Eagles, look to drop anywhere from 34-38 USD (Avg. Cost: 18 USD)
There are outliers to this process, but it depends on multiple things like seller's rating, quality of coins, quality of coin photo (if applicable).
Bottom Line: As you move up the size of the order from a few ounces up to sizeable orders, the cost moves closer and closer to spot circa ComEx. For those people like me that are doing the Sharebuilder way of amassing PM, look to pay a premium for the honor to do it...
Remember saving up for a Campmor or Gleason's order? The equipment is so cheap these days that single use versus long term storage costs is an issue. Except of course climbing gear.
Commissar Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 1:15 pm | #
It really is amazing Dawg... especially the ultralight stuff you used to have to pay an arm & a leg for. Now its hightech engineered materials my min-wage kids can afford EASILY.
Anecdotal - Daughter home from college for the Holiday weekend. She goes to school in Manhattan. Says the retail environment appears to be as strong as ever in NYC. Says that even in her econ class the prof. talks about visiting area retailers and they all say things are rosy. I visited her in early October and it seemed that way as well but that was before a lot of sh*t hit the fan. But I guess Manhattan may be exempt from a lot of the ordinary belt tightening that happens elsewhere.
Walmart, apparently, can't censor stampedes, as if censorship really works.
YouTube - James Inman - Wal-Mart Censorship
This seems to be related to retail lease problems:
Commerce National Bank Announces Third Quarter 2008 Results
For the nine month period ended September 30, 2008, the Bank reported net income of $254,000 as compared to $702,000 for the same period in 2007. For the three month period ended September 30, 2008, the Bank reported a net loss of $152,000 as compared to net income of $294,000 for the same period in 2007. In recognition of the uncertain economic times impact on its loan portfolio, for the three and nine month periods ended September 30, 2008, respectively, the Bank recorded provisions for loan and lease losses of $375,000 and $702,000 as compared to the recording of $80,000 and $244,000 for the similar periods in 2007.
Joe(Unrated) writes:
Anecdotal - Daughter home from college for the Holiday weekend. She goes to school in Manhattan. Says the retail environment appears to be as strong as ever in NYC. Says that even in her econ class the prof. talks about visiting area retailers and they all say things are rosy. I visited her in early October and it seemed that way as well but that was before a lot of sh*t hit the fan. But I guess Manhattan may be exempt from a lot of the ordinary belt tightening that happens elsewhere.
Joe | 11.28.08 - 1:25 pm | #
Ya it's different there - just like everywhere.
Can you really bestow blessings on an Atheist? I'm a strong Agnostic, but I don't accept any blessings bestowed on me by believers. Thanks, but no thanks.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
possibly long wait.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | 11.28.08 - 1:19 pm
There is no "possibly" to it. The wait time for orders is 3-4 weeks on the short side. Places like the US Mint stopped honoring orders placed after March 31, 2008 meaning you can only get some/most 2008 coin offerings second hand if you didn't jump on it right away. I imagine that the order window for the 2009 series will be even shorter. Inversely, I imagine the wait time for 2009 orders will be longer.
Second hand markets like eBay are the only places that seem to have quick turnaround--if that doesn't make your mind hurt thinking about it.
While there is a constant battle going on between the 'bugs and the 'boo-ers, the actual market sign show that mints & miners can't keep up with demand. It is almost gotten me thinking that the some of the 'boo-ers are just like the Pump & Dumps down on the Street.
Following the metal, not the contracts, and see where it takes you.
Sorry if this is a dupe but London Banker has nailed it (again) here:
London Banker: What We Value Is What We Save In a Crisis
God, how I hate gov't.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
If it's any comfort, they seem to be intent on committing suicide.
The governments today know not from whence their power comes.
Joe - I have family in NYC area too. Sells to retailers in the city. He is one of his companies top RMs and he is down 8-10% compared to plan (which wasn't overly optimistic this year at all)... their only saving grace is that they too (like my son's employer her in Minnesota) cut head count BEFORE the got red ink - so he says they are okay for now. Not growing but not losing money.
Still 10% off plan.
And I wonder if those who were axed feel it is as rosy? Ya think?
Dryfly - It was anecdotal, nothing more. Not trying to build a case. The amount of retail activity I witnessed in Oct. was genuinely surprising however.
OT
I heard KB Home credit was being downgraded CNBC.
It really is amazing Dawg... especially the ultralight stuff you used to have to pay an arm & a leg for. Now its hightech engineered materials my min-wage kids can afford EASILY. - dryfly
Word. Sometimes I "do the math" and amortize the engineering content over 100,000 or a million or even 10 million units and just cannot even cover those costs with the retail price.
Just remember, no matter how bad things get here in SoCal versus "Flyover America" I live 10 miles away from "Real Cheap Sports" and can visit any day of the year in shorts and t-shirt.
Joe--maybe your daughter is different, but when I was in college, I had no idea what in the heck was going on in the world.
I never even noticed the recessions that occurred in my younger days.
Checking the Black Friday deals online again this morning, very disapointing.
But CNBC was just interviewing some tard buying 3 TV's, wall mounts, and DVD players. The reporter asked the guy how much he thinks he saved by buying today, he said 10%.
10%!
You can buy at amazon without even trying and beat best buy prices. But I guarantee you the stores aren't getting me out of the house for a measley 10%. Some people enjoy getting retailed.
JJL,
Someone has already mentioned it, but to get "close" to spot prices you have to be a bulk buyer of PMs. With any commodity, there is a price to be paid for the right to buy smaller lots.
PSgirl writes:
Joe--maybe your daughter is different, but when I was in college, I had no idea what in the heck was going on in the world.
I never even noticed the recessions that occurred in my younger days.
PSgirl | 11.28.08 - 1:42 pm | #
lol, me too!
Recessions are great times to immerse in higher education. By the time you get out you are buying into a growing economy that has been flushed of excess.
In the 80s my aerospace was a ticket. In the 90s tech, then bio-tech. The problem was all that time the financial "engineers" were busy absconding with the gravy.
I never even noticed the recessions that occurred in my younger days.
Me three. I graduated college in 1982 and never knew why I couldn't find a job until the past year reading this blog.
The recession is still not deeply settled in or even widely acknowledged yet.
Agreed. Walmart parking lot here south of DC was full with lines around the block at 4AM. 6 Sheriff's cars on hand to control mob.
This year the unemployed have more time to sign up for credit cards and shop.
Dialing for Dollars is trying to reach me.
With regard to Manhattan, I have rather a different story to tell. The stores on Madison and Fifth are empty. Even the people who have the money are less interested in squandering and flaunting it. Neither the investment bankers nor the Europeans are buying the way they did last year. It is also much easier to get a cab than it was at this time last year.
News from teen's front lines after getting back at 1 p.m.:
Very crowded. Deals were sold out quickly. The rest of the sales were not earth shattering. Macy's gave out energy drinks and Craisins. Would not do it again unless there was a specific item in mind. (Appears to have been exhausting.)
Watching CNBC today I get the feeling (to borrow from PCA last night GWTW comment) they are still trying to beat the consumer pony even though it has fallen and can't get up.
Volker the Viking writes:
I am getting very frustrated today. I wanted to buy some Johnson Matthney 10oz silver bars and I called around all the local coin/jewelry shops and they are all out. Nothing available. I have spent about an hour online and IF a dealer has those bars available, they want around $150 per bar, or about 50% OVER SPOT price. Anyone have any better ideas I can try?
Volker, Kitco.com has a user forum where many users buy, sell and trade with low premiums. You might want to check it out. Works for me when local dealers are short of stock.
ac writes:
"[quoting] God, how I hate gov't.
The governments today know not from whence their power comes."
Not the taxpayer (I mean the ones that actually pay taxes). Their powere comes from bloated government employee unions that re-elect them in return for DBPs (a SoCal perspective). When will this corrupt cycle be broken?
Just remember, no matter how bad things get here in SoCal versus "Flyover America" I live 10 miles away from "Real Cheap Sports" and can visit any day of the year in shorts and t-shirt.
Commissar Rob Dawg | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 1:42 pm | #
Well Rob 'cheap sports' are literally out my back door and I don't mind the weather and I don't have to share them with about 10 million others.
On the other hand people still hunt all around here and there are some weeks where I think your chances are better in a battle zone than walking around the woods out here. Riffle/shotgun deer season specifically - I stay in those weeks.
Outsider(Unrated) writes:
News from teen's front lines after getting back at 1 p.m.:
Very crowded. Deals were sold out quickly. The rest of the sales were not earth shattering. Macy's gave out energy drinks and Craisins. Would not do it again unless there was a specific item in mind. (Appears to have been exhausting.)
Outsider | 11.28.08 - 1:56 pm | #
Now the question is to wait until next year & see if the lesson was actually learned.
"Can you really bestow blessings on an Atheist? " Of course.
Dryfly said: "your chances are better in a battle zone than walking around the woods out here"
I grew up in northern Maine, and enjoyed hunting.
I've never gone near the woods in fall since I left. I had enough of people shooting at me in Viet Nam.
Riffle/shotgun deer season specifically - I stay in those weeks.
Heard about the farmer tired of having his livestock shot every season? He decided to paint "goat," "cow, "horse," etc. on them. Only casualty that season? His John Deere tractor. [rimshot]
The blogger below is the best trader in the world. Check it for yourself. For few hours he has been trading live. He made more that two dozen trades, ALL profitable.
He has never failed even in a single trade. NOT A SINGLE LOSING TRADE!
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: eurusd (eur usd eur/usd usdeur usd/eur) trading (short time intervals example)
He also nailed the bottoms of stock market on Oct 10, 16, 24, and the BOTTOM of November 21 (with the level of a few minutes!).
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: Stock Market Bottom November 2008 Tomorrow Price Action
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: eurusd (eur usd eur/usd usdeur usd/eur) trading (short time intervals example)
Re: WalMart stampede
Sorry for the man who died, but as usual, the reporting leaves a lot to be desired. Was he trying to hold back the crowd? what for? Why was he at the door and not the manager with the keys? Can't WalMart be sued for inadequate crowd control? 200 people is sufficient to do that much damage unwittingly? Seems like it would take a high proportion to trample someone without malice. If the crowd took the doors off the hinges, why weren't people crushed against the doors?
And mostly-what on earth did they think they were going to buy that was worth standing outside in line at a WalMart?
"Can you really bestow blessings on an Atheist? " Of course.
It's like getting married by the Mormons after you die, what's the harm?
Anon,
Few minutes after closing the short trade at 9:20PM, we made a series of mirco-short term trades, similiar to what was done earlier today. The difference is that this time the trades are made on long side.
The purpose of these types of trades is to show you an example of how to trade at a top, between a top and bottom, and in a bottom!
Okay. Thanks for that insight.
bad, bad, bad....
thats the stuff that curdles the milk, mr anonymous.
I went down to the grocery store bought a case of canned goods then dropped it off a the local food bank. My X-mas shopping is done.
CR,
Can you automatically delete comments containing specific strings?
For instance, you could auto-delete any comment containing the strings "financialtraders.blogspot" or "marketwarnings.com".
Safe Haven | Data and Markets Unanimously Support the Current Depression Phase of the Longwave
From the JJ archives.
Can you automatically delete comments containing specific strings?
Actually, I think that the CR companion should be do something to that effect--not delete it, but prevent if from showing up.
Oops. I didn't mean that CR companion has that capabilities, but that it would be simple to add it.
Ken, you around?
FLASH
Ken'lever-up'Fisher
Business News | Financial News | Money | Wall Street | Stock Market | New York Finance - NYPOST.com
I've never gone near the woods in fall since I left. I had enough of people shooting at me in Viet Nam.
Comrade Terry | 11.28.08 - 2:10 pm | #
I personally know three people who have been shot in the woods during deer season - all three lived though one was really messed up for awhile.
Ironically one of them WAS a vet (Korea) - survived the War in Korea and got shot hunting near his farm later in life. He quit hunting then too.
You can be the safest hunter in the world & yet it's the other guy you have to worry about. Shame.
Volker, Kitco.com has a user forum where many users buy, sell and trade with low premiums. You might want to check it out. Works for me when local dealers are short of stock.
Traunche Coat Mafia | 11.28.08 - 1:59 pm
You're not real quick on the uptake, are you? Try reading the entire post. What you quote as being said by me is wrong, those were jjl's words. So how about it now?
If the crowd took the doors off the hinges, why weren't people crushed against the doors?
sdtfs | 11.28.08 - 2:16 pm | #
the automatic doors on most big boxes like walmart are not hinged in the same way that your front door is. even when the doors are locked a small child could push the doors in/out. i don't know for sure but i'd bet it has something to do with fire escape.
No Black Friday shopping here either, but I did take the tween to the theater. I was shocked! We left early as I was expecting horrible traffic & parking nightmares.
Roads were fine & the parking lot, while crowded, was managable - got a spot right away.
The people I saw going back to their cars were not ladened with packages - the most I saw was 3 bags.
btw - this is the outlet just south of DC.
You can be the safest hunter in the world & yet it's the other guy you have to worry about. Shame.
True here in NH as well. Hunting is dangerous business. Just ask Cheney's friend.
I cringe when hub wants to take kids exploring. I make a dive for those ridiculous orange hats and start listing mandatory precautionary measures.
You're not real quick on the uptake, are you? Try reading the entire post. What you quote as being said by me is wrong, those were jjl's words. So how about it now?
Volker the Viking
Whoops, I'm a casual browser of the comments. I haven't been tracking impersonators. Never mind.
Whoops, I'm a casual browser of the comments. I haven't been tracking impersonators. Never mind.
Traunche Coat Mafia | 11.28.08 - 2:49 pm
Still and all, it was good advise I gave.
Failed economies are leading towards failed societies. Nationalism is making a big comeback after globalization failed. The attacks in Mumbai have tremendous impacts on our large corporations.
Geopolitical instability is scaring me much more than worrying about my job. Pakistan and Russia are nuclear powers and both are heading for economic collapse. Pakistan is turning in a radical Islamic direction. Russia will not be humiliated by the West a second time.
The period of failed leadership here in the US waiting for Obama to take control is a sign of weakness. The DOD has been under cyber attack for the last few days starting right before the Mumbai attacks. Eastern Asia has several countries with armed resistance challenging the governments. Let food supplies diminish due to the loss of LOC and you have a tinderbox ready to burst into flame. Interesting times indeed.
DoD confirms computer virus in networks - Navy News, news from Iraq - Navy Times
ac writes:
"[quoting] God, how I hate gov't.
The governments today know not from whence their power comes."
Not the taxpayer (I mean the ones that actually pay taxes). Their powere comes from bloated government employee unions that re-elect them in return for DBPs (a SoCal perspective). When will this corrupt cycle be broken?
Even a corrupt government can stay in power so long as they're clever about it.
What's more interesting is to see governments intentionally breaking down the social and legal structures on which their power is built in the name of maintaining power.
The thing to be concerned about now is that they suddenly wake up and realize what they're doing and revert to military force and some form of police state to make up for the vacuum in their credibility.
I personally think people should be less worried about keeping their jobs and more worried about preventing a situation where a country can only hold itself together through force, coercion, and monopolistic control over the flow of information.
When social and legal contracts are seen merely as impediments to power and status quo dark days are at hand...
When social and legal contracts are seen merely as impediments to power and status quo, dark days are at hand...
You're in a cheery mood today. I'm going out shopping, that'll cheer me up.
"I personally think people should be less worried about keeping their jobs and more worried about preventing a situation where a country can only hold itself together through force, coercion, and monopolistic control over the flow of information."
Interesting thought, but too late. Harry Schultz worked for years to prevent what is happening. About a year ago he advised his readers to stop trying to prevent the fascist creep, and to fend for themselves. In his view, the point of no return had been reached.
"As we enter the sputtering last days of late capitalism, the messages from the powers that be become more and more absurd. Drill! Buy! Bail! These are the panicky cries of the masters of an unravelling economic system based on exponential growth."
--The Automatic Earth
Anonymous writes:
Shopping Wars update:
Went out and bought a bag of Pot. Supply down, demand up. Paid a premium
Anonymous | 11.28.08 - 12:31 pm | #
Thats like trying to find a good concert ticket at cost the day before the concert.
You should know better.
Supply and demand.
Hunting is dangerous business
Working at Walmart is, too.
.
Iraq and McVeigh were allies on the OKC bombings?
The DOD has been under cyber attack for the last few days starting right before the Mumbai attacks. Eastern Asia has several countries with armed resistance challenging the governments
Somali pirates grabbed a chemical tanker, too.
The Mumbai attack reminded me of this -
Gleiwitz incident - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Great Reckoning predicted a general rise in violence as the hegemonic power breaks down.
No privateer, but we do have 2 1/2 acres, which is enough for the hub and son to practice driving and chipping. No green tho.
the house was formerly owned by a high school football coach and he advertised it as being longer that 2 football fields. They had dreadful taste. Screaming gator orange master bedroom rug for example. Gave me an excuse to redo everything.
Also, was cheap, relatively. Now the redoing needs doing again. Oh,well.
Going with the meme today. Long complicated autobiography of catherine fitts
Dillon Read & the Aristocracy of Stock Profits
Yellow dye, squirrel intoxicant?
The inside of acorns are yellowish-orange. Perhaps they think its an uber-acorn.
Thread music.
YouTube - John Cougar Mellencamp Crumblin Down Video
Oh God no!! Not John Couger Mellonhead.
Middle aged white guy. What did you expect?
Sorry, I meant Cougar.
YouTube - 1975 Mercury Cougar Commercial
You're in a cheery mood today. I'm going out shopping, that'll cheer me up.
We will look back at 2007 or 2008 as "Peak Civilization".
Savor that Christmas shopping trip.
It's likely the last one.
What did you expect?
A little diddie about Jack and Dianne.
No more Opera Windows....now I'm sad...really sad.
Screaming gator orange master bedroom rug for example
Was he a screaming gator fan? that might explain it.
Green & Gold is big over in Wisconsin where most of my inlaws live - seems everything comes in Green, Gold or both.
It's likely the last one.
YouTube -
right back at ya
Fiscal Bubblicious
'Now we want to take debt off the balance sheet by putting the full faith and credit behind it, i.e., synthethic Treasuries. The last bubble is the FISCALBUBBLE.
When it pops so do we, for it is our balance sheet that will 'blow up'. - AM)
A nugget from Dr. Doom&Gloom [his comments]
Alan Greenspan, during a question answer season in London,Novemeber 2007 midnight California time, in which he said, "During early 1990s the money supply numbers stopped working [money supply was growing but banks were reluctant to lend]. We [Fed] put buckets of money out there [in the banks, similar to what the Fed is trying to do now] and it didn't work. It was only after Wall Street came up with more [or newer] CDO products ["innovations" in securitization of debt] and took debt off the banks' balance sheets that banks started to lend again and the economy began to respond."
BreakOut 1982 writes:
404 Not Found 3382.htm
From the JJ archives.
BreakOut 1982 | 11.28.08 - 2:25 pm | #
Oops. I didn't mean that CR companion has that capabilities, but that it would be simple to add it.
Ken, you around?
Basel Too | 11.28.08 - 2:27 pm | #
Yep, I'm here, and I made a note of it when Y.T. asked. Great idea. If I have time, it'll make it into the next rev.
I agree with ac's outlook. I had hoped for a controlled collapse with a drastic decrease in our standard of living. I now hope for a collapse without nuclear war.
Universal default and debt forgiveness for the world. Long shot for a semblance of civilization going forward.
For the moments when my outrage needs stoked.
YouTube - Bruce Springsteen - The Ghost Of Tom Joad w/Tom Morello 2008
Yep, I'm here, and I made a note of it when Y.T. asked. Great idea. If I have time, it'll make it into the next rev.
Ken, can you create a bubble we can put over our heads kind of like the one Sandy in SpongeBob has? Can you design it so we only read and hear our own comments? That would be super neato great if you could. Thanks in advance.
The Great Reckoning predicted a general rise in violence as the hegemonic power breaks down.
Broward Horne | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 3:35 pm | #
Pakistan is a big wildcard. Ever since they lost East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), they've united the country under the armed forces with the dream of a pan-islamic state. All this is meant to obscure the significant cultural, <a href=http://www.rrcap.unep.org/lc/cd/html/countryrep/pakistan/map12.JPG">environmental and economic striations in Pakistan. Unfortunately when people can't work, can't eat the federal government has no chance.
Here's the long term view of one us think tank Neocons plan a new mideast map: seriously, : Indybay
I assume he was a gator fan. My daughter went to the U of Fla at Gainesville, but was never very interested in football. Lives in Boston, and compelled to be a Sox fan.
And green and gold can be pretty colors. Screaming orange is ugly even on football uniforms. The other rugs they picked out were a paen (?) to shag ugliness.
Don't know what the squirrels eat. The racoons like the citrus and tear it apart with their clever little hands. The farther south you go, the rattier the squirrels look. In Miami, there aren't many and they all look diseased.
Two people killed in CA toys R Us. Thats all i heard. It must be Christmas
2 Shot Dead at California Toys R Us - Local News | News Articles | National News | US News - FOXNews.com
link to toys r us story
1972 New Yorker 440
YouTube -
Can't believe he can get the front wheels off the ground with this tank of a car!
ll- I believe you meant "paean".
ac- I'm going shopping,...I'm not going to buy anything. As Thoreau said,"A man is rich in proportion to those things he can do without." Makes me feel rich to look at all the stuff I can do without.
Also, as far as blessings go, what it means to me is that someone is thinking kindly of me. Namely Pavel. How could anyone object to that?
Now, the church back in the day was smart. I think that it was quickly forgotten, if anyone ever knew, what date Jesus was born on. (I did read one modestly convincing thing about how Jewish royalty had sex at certain times, but who knows) Being smart, they chose the time used by the Romans as Saturnialia. Big long party. Also, pagans always celebrated winter solstice. Why have people forgo a big fun party with gifts and drinking etc, etc. when you could try to co-opt it? So I think the real reason for the season is Saturnalia and solstice, and therefore, Christmas as celebrated has more to do with those 2 things than Christianity. In a sense, Saturnalia has co-opted Christianity, not the other way around.
I think that there is no objective reality behind the words "blessings of god", but if a belief in that causes someone to feel good and wish others to feel good and be happy too, well who cares about objective reality, I'll take fantasy every time.
Which is not to say that people worshiping the accumulation of stuff is a good idea either. There is this concept known as "enough", which most people don't seem to get. Probably because most people evolved to pursue more because they have virtually nothing, and more than nothing is nearly always good.
Last gloomy post before I enjoy the day.
"Chekhov said, "If there's a gun on the wall at the beginning of the play, by the end it must go off." In the world's nuclear arsenal are many guns on the wall. If life copies art, will there be an Act 3 in which the players, having learned their lesson the hard way, live sustainably?"
From the Wilderness' Peak Oil Blog
EHP, interesting article, I'm surprised that anybody admitted The Plan to this detail.
The new map fits in with the idea of greater cultural granularity. There's an interplay of economic forces versus cultural forces going on. Great Reckoning predicted increasing granularity and I believe the Internet is one force which promotes it.
Each new cultural interface increases total transaction csots. But... it also creates a set of jobs associated with the interface.
If I were one of the Masters Of The Universe and I believe that the net balance of forces was pushing for greater cultural granularity, I might try to to a controlled decontruction of my potential enemies first.
Very interesting confirmation of my thoughts from three years ago.
I agree with ac's outlook. I had hoped for a controlled collapse with a drastic decrease in our standard of living. I now hope for a collapse without nuclear war.
Universal default and debt forgiveness for the world. Long shot for a semblance of civilization going forward.
Humans can withstand tremendous hardship remarkably well. We're built for it -- remember it wasn't that long ago that people got to see half the people they knew die in famines or plagues.
In some sense the concern about depression bugs me because we're a fantastically rich nation and if you lop 20% off the GDP we're still a fantastically rich nation.
The problems seem to really arise when there's the sense that those hardships are borne unjustly or unequally (whether or not the perception is actually correct). I think that's one of the real liabilities of these bailouts and why it's possible that they could in a sense "fail" even if they help prop up the economy.
Also with regard to the nuclear weapons -- I think that's the nightmare scenario that makes many economists think we have to prevent a depression. The idea that the collapse of a major economy could put a nukular weapon in the hands of a madman.
I think that's a legitimate concern, though reasons don't necessarily imply solutions.
One day folks might realize that self-organizing structures which were built from the ground up aren't easily held together from the top down.
lawyerliz, move to Ala. These folks are sick re football. Someone once told me (in all seriousness) that the greatest honor for a grad student at the UnivAla was to tutor a member of the football team. Talk about priorities in the wrong place.
And green and gold can be pretty colors. Screaming orange is ugly even on football uniforms.
There are probably bars in Tallahassee where that sentence alone would probably get you free drinks all night long.
I had some snarky comments but I'll keep them to myself for now.
I am in central NJ. I went to a few stores - Macys, Best Buy, Staples earlier today. Parking lots are full and people are shopping, or at least walking around the stores. Interesting thing to me was that the big screen tv aisles at best buy were completely deserted. People were mostly congregating around the cameras and dvds. Staples was completely empty too but they don't seem to have gotten deep into the Black Friday discounts. Just some observations by one dude.. FWIW..
ac- I'm going shopping,...I'm not going to buy anything.
There ya go... stick it to those capitalist pigs!
Just laugh at them and say "I've got plenty of money to buy stuff because I'm smart enough not to!"
I wonder if we'll one day look back and think it a very strange and foreign thing to build an economy on shopping sprees.
I really don't have a feel if long-term that possible though indeed it does offend my fine moral sensibilities.
Rev. Elmer Gantry
Thanks
Craft brewers in crisis Long live the beer and alcohol conglomerates
I personally wish college football was eliminated. Or, that the players were paid like pros, instead of being exploited and not educated. And the amounts the coaches make is obscene.
High school football is fun. My son was in the band and his best friend in the band and team, and I used to love to sit next to the band and watch the kid's antics. The team was pretty good too.
Thing is people actually think this is important in the scheme of things.
And I'm no Seminole fan either. Bite your tongue.
Ken Cooper said: "Yep, I'm here, and I made a note of it when Y.T. asked."
Ken, CR Companion is a stellar product. In the case of the cited 'offense', it's hard to filter 'Anonymous' because it's a generic handle. A method of filtering with more specificity would be most welcome.
My thanks to you for providing such a wonderful tool.
Will Beer Be the Next Casualty of the Crisis?
OK can somebody explain to me why the Fed hasn't cut rates to 0% yet?
Our government has really failed to step up to the plate here and provide the assistance this country needs to get back on its feet.
OK can somebody explain to me why the Fed hasn't cut rates to 0% yet?
Wait til January.
Haven't you been reading here? It is already effectively zero. Next we will pay the govt to take our money away and keep it for a while.
ac, if i get to keep my job during this downturn I am perfectly fine with a 20% pay cut. It doesn't really work that way though...
If 20% drop in GDP = 20% drop in wages we are fine. If 20% drop in GDP = 20% drop in employment we are in the 1930s with all the associated political instability.
"OK can somebody explain to me why the Fed hasn't cut rates to 0% yet?"
So they can assist the banks with a larger spread.
LawyerLiz said: "Next we will pay the govt to take our money away and keep it for a while."
Only when they pry my cold, dead fingers....
Oh, wait....
I almost went shopping today by accident. I need to buy some plastic storage containers. Fortunately, I realized what day it is before I ventured out. When the realization struck me, I felt pretty clueless, I must say.
I really cannot understand why anyone would subject themselves to shopping on a day like this.
Yeah, when I'm spending money I'd like people to pay attention to me and act like I was important and even fawn a little. Not like I have to beg them.
And I repeat. Any business model which so heavily relies on not being profitable until the end of November, and relying on shopping binges is a STUPID model.
ac, if i get to keep my job during this downturn I am perfectly fine with a 20% pay cut. It doesn't really work that way though...
If 20% drop in GDP = 20% drop in wages we are fine. If 20% drop in GDP = 20% drop in employment we are in the 1930s with all the associated political instability.
Yeah... that might lead to a much more stable situation. But businesses always like to cut back on employees they feel are less productive and they worry about cutting the salaries or hours of more productive workers for fear of losing them.
How do you convince an entity that exists fundamentally because it is self-serving to act in a non-self-serving way?
"Also, as far as blessings go, what it means to me is that someone is thinking kindly of me. Namely Pavel. "
I do.
We get it, doom and gloom is visible everywhere, thankfully the market now agrees and is on board that we're in a mess. Expectations have rapidly caught up to the horrible reality of the economy after being woefully behind for the last 18 months. It is absorbing nothing but horrible news pretty well.
Unfortunately, the government's involvement is going to cause interesting unintended consequences for a few years to come. The economy will take a while to get even remotely healthy, but our downside pressure is decreasing quickly.
lawyerliz(Unrated) writes:
I personally wish college football was eliminated. Or, that the players were paid like pros, instead of being exploited and not educated. And the amounts the coaches make is obscene.
High school football is fun. My son was in the band and his best friend in the band and team, and I used to love to sit next to the band and watch the kid's antics. The team was pretty good too.
I hear ya. My kids all did sports too... hockey, soccer & swimming as youngsters... cross country running & swimming as high schoolers - they were pretty good too (my daughter was a state champion swimmer - boys were close).
But they have done (or will do - one still in HS) small college 'D3' sports... no scholarships, all fun & no stress. Think of it like intramural teams that get to travel some. They all enjoyed it a bunch... I highly encourage kids to look into that if they go to a small school - even if they aren't real good. Most D3 schools don't cut anyone.
:::::
And I'm no Seminole fan either. Bite your tongue.
My apologies - LOL.
BTW - my wife and I are going to a college hockey game tonight... that is the insanity of choice around here.
WalMart announced last year they were going to build a new store a couple of miles from my house. The neighbors were all totally against it but what does that matter?
Turns out though their proposed store was next door to a huge hospital. The hospital said they didn't care as long as it didn't affect them in their normal day-to-day business. Of course, WalMart blew a lot of smoke (propaganda) about this but still a ten story hospital that'd been around for 50 years does have a bit of priority.
The store has not yet been built (2 years and counting). Could be lousy business atmosphere today or maybe because of the hospital. Probably never will happen now.
But I've been around and I wouldn't waste my time on a fantasy.
I do.
Not if she was working in the sugar cane fields of Nicaragua and suffering because of poor working conditions. Blessings are cheap when you patronize their feudal overlord and fail to repudiate what role we played, and play, in destroying their revolution.
Humans can withstand tremendous hardship remarkably well. We're built for it -- remember it wasn't that long ago that people got to see half the people they knew die in famines or plagues.
If people grow up with that hardship they can deal with it. Going from comfortable middle class American living to that would snap a lot of people. Hell, going from middle class American to lower class American will snap a lot of people.
Agree, Captain Fish. If you look closely enough, you can see it already happening. There won't be enough Prozac to go around. There wasn't Prozac during the first Depressions. Just Whiskey and Moonshine, but at least they bit your ass sharply the next day....no such luck with Prozac.
The shoppers broke the doors off their hinges and surged in, toppling a 34-year-old temporary employee who had been waiting with other workers in the stores entryway.
People did not stop to help the employee as he lay on the ground, and they pushed against other Wal-Mart workers who were trying to aid the man. The crowd kept running into the store even after the police arrived, jostling and pushing officers who were trying to perform CPR, the police said.
They were like a stampede, said Nassau Det. Lt. Michael Fleming. Hundreds of people walked past him, over him or around him.
Let this whole damn piece of crap burn to the ground. There isn't anything worth saving.
Agree, Anonymous. When the liquidation begins, it should be these soul-deprived freaks immediately subsequent to the crooks on WallStreet and Capital Hill, if that Faustian bargain had to be made.
That is disgusting. Hopefully WalMart has security cameras that can identify the culprits, even if there are hundreds, and put them all on trial.
lawyerliz,
On the shopping thing, I had the most curious experience reading to my four year old the other night from a Beatrix Potter collection, "The Tale of Ginger and Pickles"...it spooked me out a bit.
[snip]
(Tabitha Twitchit kept the only other shop in the village. She did not give credit.)
Ginger and Pickles gave unlimited credit.
Now the meaning of "credit" is thiswhen a customer buys a bar of soap, instead of the customer pulling out a purse and paying for itshe says she will pay another time.
And Pickles makes a low bow and says, "With pleasure, madam," and it is written down in a book.
The customers come again and again, and buy quantities, in spite of being afraid of Ginger and Pickles.
But there is no money in what is called the "till."
The customers came in crowds every day and bought quantities, especially the toffee customers. But there was always no money; they never paid for as much as a pennyworth of peppermints.
But the sales were enormous, ten times as large as Tabitha Twitchit's.
[snip]
The Tale Of Ginger and Pickles, by Beatrix Potter.
And a lot of people went nutz after enduring those hardships. Read some stuff written by people who buried all their children after the first visitation of the black plague. Some really thought, with some justification, that all mankind would be wiped out. They got drunk and flagellated themselves and prayed, and killed Jews and shut themselves up and absolutely nothing worked.
In some relatively clean cities only, say 15%, died.
In a world blessed by any kind of superior entity, there would be justice, none of which is evident in plagues.
Justice is a glorious human creation, an art object. As flawed, and believe me I see the flaws, as it is.
I am also not impressed by a universe in which the second law of thermodynamics holds sway. Not to speak of the first and 3rd laws. Poor universe planning.
Actually, why couldn't that poor employee have been Paulson, Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Clinton (both), Dodd, Rubin...or the countless other crooks who deserve this fate as opposed to this guy?
A new form of punishment for these crooks. Face the Wal-Mart stampede. How fitting would that be? We could make a show of it, and place wagers.
Good grief, energy, was there a moral in there somewhere?
Morocco Bama, newest host of the "Running Man" show...nice glass house you got there.
ll,
LOL! Beatrix Potter wrote children's stories, quite pastoral - yet a theme of this one is granting excessive credit that is non-performing from day one - and the illusion of prosperity (sparked by shopping commentary).
That's the funny thing about movies. Build it, and they will come. Proffer the idea, and it will happen. Think of how many things are coming to fruition that have been proffered in movies and fiction. Farenheit 451, many of the Dick novels...you name it, we are progressing towards it.
I was read those books, but didn't read those to my kids, read others of course. So did the foolish shop go out of business?
nice glass house you got there.
As if you're immune? We live in a glass universe. Everything you do breaks the glass. It's called entropy.
"Blessings are cheap when you patronize their feudal overlord and fail to repudiate what role we played, and play, in destroying their revolution."
Blessings are never cheap.
"I am also not impressed by a universe in which the second law of thermodynamics holds sway."
Well, make your own universe.
Blessings are never cheap.
Okay, meaningless, considering.
Hence my disparagement of the laws of thermodynamics. Poor planning of the universe.
The hub summarized them as:
ll, agree, and that's liberty how?
I'm not a goddess either, so I can't make the universe.
But I can critque the one that's here.
It's one that displays order, but mostly what I call default order. No design at all, not even a crappy one. Intelligent beings plan and design things, tho they may fail.
"We live in a glass universe. Everything you do breaks the glass. It's called entropy."
This is really weird. I hadn't read the above until just now. I'd started a poem that begins:
"She sent a heart of crystal glass
Fine as any heart that beats..."
My grandmother started field work when she was six years old. She never learned how to read. As I said, I've been around.
Morocco Bama | Homepage | 11.28.08 - 5:09 pm | #
Nope, just try not to cast too many stones from my own glass lodgings...
My grandad went thru the 3rd grade. He learned to read well and led a fairly successful life.
I grew up in a neighborhood where I had to physically defend myself occasionally. I developed the Death Stare to discourage attacks. Still works. Have had adventures, but don't know if that qualifies me for "being around". Regret nothing.
"No design at all, not even a crappy one."
There are some pretty good physicists who would disagree. Their problem seems to be how to explain the order they find. It's a very unlikely and yet evident order.
There was even a professed atheist physicist named Sir Fred Hoyle, who thought and said that this here universe was designed because it was obvious to anyone who looked at it with a physicist's eye.
I have a buddy who's a well-known astrophysicist. He's got a doctorate in the subject from MIT, and he can tell you how many scientists there are theists of one sort or another, although they don't go around advertising it.
WalMart totally creates the frenzy by advertising products all over the place but only stocking 5 of them in the actual store...
Maybe after losing two 10-figure lawsuits, they'll rethink that assinine strategy.
Like I said before, I'm a strong Agnostic. If there is a creator of all "this," who's to say what form that creator takes, if any? Hell, we could be a computer simulation. It's as plausible as the Father, Son and Holy Ghost, or Lord Ganesh.
And a lot of them aren't.
People believing something don't make it true. Even smart people.
I thought you were gonna toss Original Sin at me.
Fred Hoyle had this continuous creation theory which I thought was neato, but it was disproved. No criticism of Fred intended.
Enter text of a race that slot
This is my first time using speech recognition software at sea are numbers
energyecon
I read all of that Beatrix Potter story you gave a link to. How apt! I was ready for this sugary addled moral lesson preaching that unlimited credit was the 'right thing' and a winner in the end. Instead it's a sharp little story of how nice people can go out of business if they don't pay attention to making real cash money, and it even throws in for free the lesson that people who require cash payment can be either mean or nice, good business people or bad.
Beatrix Potter for Treasury Secretary! Oops, too late.
"lawyerliz writes:
Fred Hoyle had this continuous creation theory which I thought was neato, but it was disproved. No criticism of Fred intended.?
Yes, it was the great hope of the atheists. A lot of people think Sir Fred deserved the Nobel Prize for other work that he did.
There's much more to him that that, but off-topic.
"...we could be a computer simulation. "
I don't think there's any doubt that if the universe isn't designed then there's something very strange going on and we understand nothing about it.
Design doesn't prove the existence of a Creator, though it certainly strongly suggests at least the existence of a creator - small c. For proof of theism there are other avenues.
"People believing something don't make it true."
Liz, it's not a matter of belief. If you look at the fantastic confluence of certain numbers, it's a matter of probability. It's one of the two great puzzles of physics, the other being: Why should there be anything at all?
EVERYTHING is massively unlikely.
"EVERYTHING is massively unlikely."
If you stop to think about it. It can lead to a feeling of unreality, or one of, for lack of a better term, hyper-reality.
Fantasy?
Better this thread than the next one up in which everybody is claiming not to be themselves.
I've actually heard mall traffic has been picking up this month from a number of friends that own retail establishments.
That said, check out the amount of commercial vacancies in southern california - it's fairly stunning.
Pomona warehouses for lease:
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Mall traffic in the mall across the street from my Hialeah ofc seems to be increasing, judging from the number of cars.
Mall traffic's becoming an oxymoronical expression. These mall things evolved in the mid-70s, the commercial orientation that followed over the next few decades becoming a perversion of shopping, ie, addressing emotional needs rather than buying what you actually need. Good riddance, albeit at great economic cost to us all, and great emotional cost as we all go cold turkey on shopping ourselves out of the emptiness of modern life. Cheers!