Hopefully the Treasury just sells 30 year bonds to cover this fiasco--because pretty soon nobody (read that as China) is gonna buy US paper with yields below 12%.
But beyond chaos lies complexity that truly is unpredictable and cannot be modeled with even the most powerful computers. Capital markets are an example of such complex dynamic systems.
Think of a mountainside full of snow. A snowflake falls, an avalanche begins and a village is buried. What caused the catastrophe? The value-at-risk crowd focuses on each snowflake and resulting cause and effect. The complexity theorist studies the mountain. The arrangement of snow is a good example of a highly complex set of interdependent relationships; so complex it is impossible to model. If one snowflake did not set off the avalanche, the next one could, or the one after that. But it's not about the snowflakes; it's about the instability of the system. This is why ski patrols throw dynamite down the slopes each day before skiers arrive. They are "regulating" the system so that it does not become unstable.
"Hopefully the Treasury just sells 30 year bonds to cover this fiasco--because pretty soon nobody (read that as China) is gonna buy US paper with yields below 12%."
Ya, they will still come back to the trough. I'm convinced that CBs are acting in unison to ensure rates don't climb here. They will continue to pile into US debt to keep the dollar afloat, rates low. Look, how many times have we come across evidence or opportunities where the CBs could certainly have backed away. They never do. Never will.
Builder Bob writes:
There go the people "waiting on the sidelines" to buy a home.
Damn straight. If I gotta worry about keeping my job, no need to take on the increased living expense of upsizing from my modest dwelling.
A bit OT. There are some web sites in China polling for opinion on whether China should support (read buy treasury bills) US's bail out. Majority say yes.
Couldn't agree more. No matter what, CBs will continue to accumulate dollars. In the short term it's always better to do this than the alternative and politicians never look past the next election.
All fucked up in the land of the free and home of the brave? And now you maggots did this: "EXEMPTION FROM EXCISE TAX FOR CERTAIN WOODEN ARROWS DESIGNED FOR USE BY CHILDREN."
Guess who else uses WOODEN ARROWS? That's right, the restless NATIVE INDIANS! What is that whumping sound and why is my barn on fire?
Wachovia Limits Access to $9.3 Billion Fund for 900 Colleges
By David Olmos and David Mildenberg
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Wachovia Corp. curbed access to a $9.3 billion investment fund used by more than 900 colleges to pay salaries, maintenance and other expenses and said it plans to sell the portfolio by the end of the year.
Colleges can only redeem 34 percent of their investments in the short-term Commonfund because of the ``liquidity squeeze,'' said Laura Fay, a spokeswoman for Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia, in an interview. Earlier this week, Wachovia had capped availability at 10 percent. Wachovia Limits Colleges' Access to $9.3 Billion Fund (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Hilipatihippa writes:
All fucked up in the land of the free and home of the brave? And now you maggots did this: "EXEMPTION FROM EXCISE TAX FOR CERTAIN WOODEN ARROWS DESIGNED FOR USE BY CHILDREN."
If the EU countries do adopt some type of bank bailout of their own, would that push our long-term yields higher? How much debt can the Asian economies absorb?
Sorry to take it off topic, but does anyone here know which insurance company Reid was talking about being on the verge of bankruptcy? Or is the consensus that he was just engaging in hyperbole?
Between Asia and OPEC, they'll absorb all of it forever it would seem. Hell you'd think we conquered them. Somebody is doing as they're told. Not sure if them or us.
What they can't count are the many people whos benifits have run out and are doing odd jobs under the table for cash, I know several doing this, moving in with family members, dropping out of society as a taxpayer....
A hedge fund manager on CNBC Asia ("Hugh" didn't catch his last name) was saying he was up to his ears in long Bunds. He said he loves them. He said it is the only thing to hold (or gilts, or 30 year treasuries, depending on your currency basis etc).
Can anyone explain why buying a 30 year treasury at 4% yield is a great move under a full on recession scenario? under what scenario would long rates come down, and if they do, what kind of return does a bond buyer get today?
Markets going down because the evidence is mounting that the problems are not just financial. You delay a recession long enough, it grows into a depression.
A bit OT. There are some web sites in China polling for opinion on whether China should support (read buy treasury bills) US's bail out. Majority say yes.
Because China is a nation of savers (unlike the USA). The chinese also understand that buying our paper keeps the USD/CNY exchange rate from going out of whack. If they disconnect from buying paper, their goods would no longer be competitive here.
This situation is somewhat akin to holding a gun to each others head.
Can anyone explain why buying a 30 year treasury at 4% yield is a great move under a full on recession scenario?
In a recession, who is going to own equity? The resulting flight to quality drives up the price of US Treasuries. Of course, the fact that this is a global recession magnifies this effect.
Market going down because this is a solvency crisis, not liquidity crisis. They can keep throwing all the money they want at bad loans, that won't make them good or make bad bankrupt companies solvent. IT sure as hell won't restore confidence in our government's ability to effectively manage the economy or markets.
So.. my bond-fu is weak. If you buy a 30yr treasury now at 4% yield, and yields go to sub 1% at peak recession despair, what has the mark-to-market on the bond changed by? ie, what do you make as a return (on paper, of course, you may not wish to sell under that scenario).
After WWI (yes, one) Germans were expected to pay war repatriations until 1984. Well, Americans could do better! Why not issue a special 300 year T-bill?!
Obvious analogy--US citizens have been raped by a smirky idiot for 8 years, next month is the parole hearing, time for a gang bang.
Mel | 10.02.08 - 9:36 am |
Hilipatihippa writes:
After WWI (yes, one) Germans were expected to pay war repatriations until 1984. Well, Americans could do better! Why not issue a special 300 year T-bill?!
I remember about 20 years ago Disney? floated some 100 year bonds. We laughed our asses off as they were jammed into MF's and Pensions by the IB's. Everyone knew they were a POS, but they paid like 5 points.
It's all about the book to bill ratio. The IB's look at their book, then they look at their bills. Then they sell the product with the highest vig to their book.
CR,
I know it is a fools errand to chase every datum and I respect you for that and your awesome analytical abilities. Do you have a schedule for we loyal readers as to when you will feel confortable revising your predictions of recession, unemployment, et al? Will the revisions to construction and finance employment be enough? California's weighted drag on the national economy? Credit contraction, etc.?
For but one instance; I believe 8% is at best a worst case unemployment figure rather than the peak you've been calling so far.
Heck we haven't even talked about auto sales. Carmax lays off 6000, Cerebrus teetering, volume at 1982 levels, $3.50 gas, on and on.
I think the bill passing congress is now a certaintly and it's all priced in already. My guess is that the day after it failed the first time Bush took a lot of angry calls from governments around the world that the US (a) owes money to or (b) sold toxic assets to (that's gotta be a lot of calls, right) and the calls prbably went along the line of, "To hell with your democratic processes. You made this mess, now fix it. Fix it now or we stop selling our gold and start buying it". You are now seeing the US bending to the whims of its overseas masters. That is why debt is so awful, the creditors own you.
"After WWI (yes, one) Germans were expected to pay war repatriations until 1984. Well, Americans could do better! Why not issue a special 300 year T-bill?!"
The Brits finished paying off WWII debt to the US in about 2003.
Assuming that CR's information was correct (see below), all the weird separate provisions in the bailout bill were not "tacked on" to the bailout, but were part of pre-existing legislation, and for some reason the bailout bill was added to it. Why, I don't know, but I suspect it was to increase the chances of passage, since no legislator wants to vote against his own pork. That being said, the arrow-making thing is a complete joke, and perfectly illustrates the idiocy of the current system.
"My understanding is the bailout bill was attached to another bill for procedural reasons, and that that other bill had all the weird provisions (Senators weren't trying to add them to the bailout bill specifically)."
Peter-san writes:
"When we look back and correct numbers, I think the recession may be dated as early as November 2007, and no later than February 2008."
Yes. Agreed. I'm soooo tired of the "dude, where's the recession?" refrain.
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Wachovia Corp. curbed access to a $9.3 billion investment fund used by more than 900 colleges to pay salaries, maintenance and other expenses and said it plans to sell the portfolio by the end of the year.
My letter to my incumbent Democratic Senator, Salazar of Colorado, sent last night. A similar letter was sent to Allard (R) although he's retiring this year --
This lifetime Democratic voter will oppose and help fund your opponent when you attempt to run again. I will do everything I can to convince every voter I know to vote against your return to the Senate.
Today's vote in favor of bailing out the Wall Street millionaires on the backs of the American people was inexcusable.
You were conned and in turn tried to con us. You had your chance to stand tall for Colorado citizens, but you cowered and ran with your tail between your legs into the arms of the corporate fat cats.
remember yield and price are inversely related. Here is a quick synopsis of the various scenarios (e.g. coupon/no coupon, etc)
thanks, I understand all that, just wasn't aware of the gearing. But I ran a bond calculator and basically if there is a massive flight to quality and 30 year yields are pushed down by a couple of 100bp, then your bond goes up in resale value by, like, 50% ..
I called my congressman's (Eric Cantor an uber conservative) office this morning. After explaining my strong reservations about the bill and how the free markets work. I asked how_is_this_bill_going_to_help_mainstreet? Silence.
Left the intern with 'Cantor has decide whether he's a socialist or a capitalist'.
Next we price in a long recession. LT investors can start buying soon I think. Maybe 2 weeks to a month for an initial tranche. At least that's the way I'm playing it.
Congress should take that 1.3 trillion and create a WPA jobs program, hell we could even let the bankers participate shoveling gravel after there banks went boom. hahaha that would be a hoot.
CP down nearly $100 bln in the week ended yesterday. The good news is that real-side firms only lost $0.8 bln in access to CP funding. The financial sector took the overwhelming majority of the hit. However, smaller firms don't hit CP. They hit financial firms for loans, and financial firms use CP to finance the loans, so I guess non-financial firms lost a bit more than $800 mln in short term financing in the latest week. Oh, forgot to mention that non-financials never recovered from the $18 bln drop in CP 2 weeks ago.
I think Sen. Wayne Allard voted against. At least that is what is saw on a website last night. And if you see something on the internet you KNOW it's true.
When the House resuscitated the zombie HR3997 (a bill for benefits to military families) they stripped out everything and replaced it with their version of the bailout.
Senate didn't have to leave the wooden arrow stuff in there, they did it on purpose.
I am so impressed with our bicameral legislature. About as effective as a couple of camels.
When commenting on this number 597k, the government states it would have been less except for the two recent hurricanes. Well. This is kinda like the inflation is awful, but "core" inflation isn't as awful as real inflation. I mean, the number is initial claims for unemployment. Not "core" claims, or claims ex-hurricana...sheeeeeeesh.... inflation is inflation, unemployment claims are unemployment claims..
dollar is getting stronger because if the worlds biggest economy by far goes into a deep recession along with G7, the impact on the emerging markets is horrendous.
Since a lot of those countries have a thin layer of extremely rich people with mobile capital over a restless proletariat, what currency do you think they are most interested in holding?
That's my theory anyway.
Congress should just pass a law to ban the TED spread and LIBOR altogether. After all, shorts were banned by the SEC, and that couldn't possibly end badly, could it?
You'll notice that the dollar's strength ahs been all-of-a-sudden like. I won't pretend to explain it all for you, but I think some part of it has to do with the Fed providing bigger dollar swaps to other central banks. Foriegn firms had little access to dollars from commercial banks for awhile, and needed to make dollar payments. The swaps mean they now have access to dollars and are grabbing them to make payments. That makes this just a blip, until payments get worked out. The more obvious impact of putting lots of additional dollars in the fx market should be that the dollar gives ground. I'm hearing the argument that risk aversion is at work, but it has to be a particular kind of risk. If US investors have more (short-term) money at risk abroad than vice versa, then shedding fx risk would mean the dollar is bid. I don't know if that's true.
They can keep throwing all the money they want at bad loans, that won't make them good or make bad bankrupt companies solvent.
If you believe Sirota's blog (Open Left), and I do, there was a Treasury call-in in which the strategy to sell to healthier banks was discussed. They don't want to buy from the worst banks most in danger of failing.
I'd been scratching my head over giving banks incentive to participate (with non-enforceable provisions, for example). This made it make some sense.
At the turn of the last century, financial dowturns were called panics, but then that was ditched in favor of depressions, but after the Great Depression, that term was too scary so they started to say REcession.
In the vein of political correctness, we should agree ahead of time for the new term for an economic downturn.
I propose: super-happy-fun-time.
So, instead of Great Depression II, we would have Super-Happy-Fun-Time I.
Here in NJ I contacted Menendez and Lautenberg and called there vote a craven act of political weakness by acting in opposition to 70% of the American people.
Only the last term is within US control, and lowering it might risk inflation. LIBOR3 - LIBOR0 is the 3 month versus overnight risk premium in LIBOR, which could be eliminated by charging as much for overnight loans as for 3 month loans, which wouldn't fix anything.
Blogging on Calculated Risk is now banned until October 17. By law this blogging ban cannot be extended beyond this date. This is a temporary measure designed to allow the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act to begin to normalize financial market activity.
The SEC has learned that some bloggers are acting as agents of foreign powers that seek to undermine the USA by spreading false rumours about the economy. The SEC has also strengthened enforcement actions against the illegal activity known as naked blogging.
The dollar rally plays right into the Feds hands. If the dollar maintains value, the Fed will have the power to do the same thing in a few years from now. If this problem was caused by the Fed, it seems the market should turn away from the dollar because it is pretty clear that all the money the Fed made shouldn't have been made.
At some point the issue of mistrust of the Fed needs to be vetted in the market, IMO of course.
OT, but heard that armored car service made 3 emergency runs yesterday to local National City branches to provide cash for account withdrawals. (One branch ran out and had to give the depositor coin!) Word here is that people are panicking and switching from National City. But hell they don't even want a cashier's check, just currency.
"Banana" is the correct term. The history is that a White House economic advisor used the word "recession" in a speech and caught hell for it from the president. He told reporters that from then on, he would use the word "banana" when he meant recession. "Banana" is attributed to both Herb Stein (under Ford) and Alfred Kahn (under Carter).
Comrade Baron Von Helmut III writes:
That 630 billion the FED injected sure did alot to calm the market. Let's throw another 700 billion down the drain.
THEN WHAT?
Another 700B until paulson leaves.
Then the US will have to nationalize a few banks and let the rest actually failed. Which banks, I think you know already.
Other alternatives are Ireland plan.
While it's not a liquidity issue per se, although it actually is because no one wants to lend, the fear is insolvency in banks however it's main cause of this lending tightness is perception and that means it becomes a Confidence issue.
Nationalization would solve this.
Mostly because Europe is in much worse shape than the US. Some EU banks are leveraged @ 60 to 1 and one of the best is 'only' leveraged at 32 to 1. The EU has been pumping money into the system just as fast as the Fed, they just have the good sense to keep their mouths shut about it.
Most forex traders know this and are waiting to see what is happening. They are 'voting' with their money.
In a few years our re-elected representatives will hire a consulting firm to make up numbers on avoided drop in GDP attributed to the bailout and declare that the bailoout made a huge profit. They will then be re-re-elected. I see no hope the taxpayer will see any of the $700 billion (or whatever higher number it will eventually be).
We will see overall deflation of money supply in the near term. So long bonds may look attractive. Problem is that hyperinflation is on the other side of the horizon. Long bonds have less liquid market, and will be nearly impossible to ditch once hyperinflation shows up for dinner.
Uncertain timing + illiquidity = FAIL
Why not just stay in cash whilst enjoying deflation, and then when the time is right jump into glod?
KS, AL, LA, MS, WY had both Senators vote Nay. Women Senators were a substantial number of the Nays, they had more courage (or intelligence or perspective) than the men on average.
The list of Senators that had a moment of clarity, or couldn't hold their nose: Allard (R-CO)
Barrasso (R-WY)
Brownback (R-KS)
Bunning (R-KY)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Cochran (R-MS)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Dole (R-NC)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Enzi (R-WY)
Feingold (D-WI)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Johnson (D-SD)
Landrieu (D-LA)
Nelson (D-FL)
Roberts (R-KS)
Sanders (I-VT)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)
Stabenow (D-MI)
Tester (D-MT)
Vitter (R-LA)
Wicker (R-MS)
Wyden (D-OR)
dr munch writes:
"I like the talk of WPA programs, infrastucture, all that stuff. I'm sure you caould round up 15,000 mortgage brokers to go build a dam in Arizona."
"Banana" is the correct term. The history is that a White House economic advisor used the word "recession" in a speech and caught hell for it from the president. He told reporters that from then on, he would use the word "banana" when he meant recession.
So ... we've become a "banana republic" in more ways than one, then?
Looks like the 4wk avg hit just about 500k towards the end of both of the 2 last recessions. We now have 2 weeks near that level, and I doubt anyone would claim that we are about to come out of a recession. I agree that the Sept Jobs report will be ugly, but it will probably look like a friggin beauty queen vs. what the Oct. report will look like. The current wave of the credit crunch only hit late in the month, and the employment response to tight credit is not going to be in a matter of days, it will be a matter of weeks and months.
The biggest piece of Vladimir-bar-the-door socalism in an American legislative bill in, what, 70 years? ... and the only socialist in either house of Congress votes against it.
We are certainly seeing the definition of "strange bedfellows" play out here.
I've heard all of the whining I can stand. Don't you know the economy is in good shape and the only people that disagree with those factoids are whiners.
Now just be quiet, reach for your pocket book and pay up. Those rich fat cat bankers need the money, they have payments too you know.
Jobless claims chart still isn't adjusted for population growth, meaning that the "probable recession" is completely misleading. 497,000 jobless claims now is not the same thing as a similar number 7 years ago when the population was lower, and way not the same thing as 17 years ago when the population was a lot lower.
Oh, well. Gretchen Morgenson must be doing the charts.))
Trichet did not cut today. Said they were not as concerned about inflation though, leaving the possibility open of a cut later in the year. I think the prospect that Europe might cut later in the year when they have resisted so far, has resulted in some of the dollar strength today.
The biggest piece of Vladimir-bar-the-door socalism in an American legislative bill in, what, 70 years? ... and the only socialist in either house of Congress votes against it.
We are certainly seeing the definition of "strange bedfellows" play out here.
He is a democratic socialist, not a corporate socialist. Got it?
dumb question:
every month the payroll unemployment numbers are released and typ they been
~100k lately. But how come the jobless claims been typ 350 k and now ~500k ??
Nemo!
So, wait, is there a recession coming?
Wow thats a surprise, I thought the US were avoiding a recession as it wasn't a suitable time right now....
job loss will exceed 200,000. UE rate bump .3% and the dollar will rally 2% on this great news.
harry reid promised that the bailout would keep people employed.
Hopefully the Treasury just sells 30 year bonds to cover this fiasco--because pretty soon nobody (read that as China) is gonna buy US paper with yields below 12%.
There go the people "waiting on the sidelines" to buy a home.
Continuing claims continues to deteriorate horribly.
CONTINUING CLAIMS: 3.591MM V 3.550ME
Prior Continuing Claims revised from 3.442M to 3.543MM
Welcome to Wallraqistan ®.
But beyond chaos lies complexity that truly is unpredictable and cannot be modeled with even the most powerful computers. Capital markets are an example of such complex dynamic systems.
Think of a mountainside full of snow. A snowflake falls, an avalanche begins and a village is buried. What caused the catastrophe? The value-at-risk crowd focuses on each snowflake and resulting cause and effect. The complexity theorist studies the mountain. The arrangement of snow is a good example of a highly complex set of interdependent relationships; so complex it is impossible to model. If one snowflake did not set off the avalanche, the next one could, or the one after that. But it's not about the snowflakes; it's about the instability of the system. This is why ski patrols throw dynamite down the slopes each day before skiers arrive. They are "regulating" the system so that it does not become unstable.
Stuart,
That is the real below the fold story and measure of what the recession is going to be like...fugly.
The bigger issue is the dispirited following here on CR. Only 179 visitors
"Hopefully the Treasury just sells 30 year bonds to cover this fiasco--because pretty soon nobody (read that as China) is gonna buy US paper with yields below 12%."
Ya, they will still come back to the trough. I'm convinced that CBs are acting in unison to ensure rates don't climb here. They will continue to pile into US debt to keep the dollar afloat, rates low. Look, how many times have we come across evidence or opportunities where the CBs could certainly have backed away. They never do. Never will.
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!
I heard a good line on Fox this morning... "We're buying all the bad loans....who's buying all the good loans?"
Exactly...
Builder Bob writes:
There go the people "waiting on the sidelines" to buy a home.
Damn straight. If I gotta worry about keeping my job, no need to take on the increased living expense of upsizing from my modest dwelling.
A bit OT. There are some web sites in China polling for opinion on whether China should support (read buy treasury bills) US's bail out. Majority say yes.
Ya, they will still come back to the trough.
Couldn't agree more. No matter what, CBs will continue to accumulate dollars. In the short term it's always better to do this than the alternative and politicians never look past the next election.
Where's my 100bps rate cut ?
Overnight FFR has been all over the board, but if this keeps up we may see a cut soon...
Federal Funds Data
LOL!
Unemployment will break 500,000 fast.
Say, first quarter of '09.
bearly writes:
Where's my 100bps rate cut ?
Ask ipodius,.. where is he?
All fucked up in the land of the free and home of the brave? And now you maggots did this: "EXEMPTION FROM EXCISE TAX FOR CERTAIN WOODEN ARROWS DESIGNED FOR USE BY CHILDREN."
Guess who else uses WOODEN ARROWS? That's right, the restless NATIVE INDIANS! What is that whumping sound and why is my barn on fire?
Wachovia Limits Access to $9.3 Billion Fund for 900 Colleges
By David Olmos and David Mildenberg
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Wachovia Corp. curbed access to a $9.3 billion investment fund used by more than 900 colleges to pay salaries, maintenance and other expenses and said it plans to sell the portfolio by the end of the year.
Colleges can only redeem 34 percent of their investments in the short-term Commonfund because of the ``liquidity squeeze,'' said Laura Fay, a spokeswoman for Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia, in an interview. Earlier this week, Wachovia had capped availability at 10 percent.
Wachovia Limits Colleges' Access to $9.3 Billion Fund (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Hilipatihippa writes:
All fucked up in the land of the free and home of the brave? And now you maggots did this: "EXEMPTION FROM EXCISE TAX FOR CERTAIN WOODEN ARROWS DESIGNED FOR USE BY CHILDREN."
The kids need their bailout too, start em young.
How's Mr. Ted Spread going this morning?
3.56
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP%3AIND
Obvious analogy--US citizens have been raped by a smirky idiot for 8 years, next month is the parole hearing, time for a gang bang.
TED feeling dandy 3.52
One Salient Oversight writes:
How's Mr. Ted Spread going this morning?
Misbehaving as usual and waiting for wooden arrows.
On the long-term yield question...
If the EU countries do adopt some type of bank bailout of their own, would that push our long-term yields higher? How much debt can the Asian economies absorb?
France is beginning to make some noise about this. Suggestions are for a fund of about $400B USD equivalent.
Berlin irked over French talk of EU bailout fund - The Local
CR,
Sorry to take it off topic, but does anyone here know which insurance company Reid was talking about being on the verge of bankruptcy? Or is the consensus that he was just engaging in hyperbole?
Nothing beats hyperbole. Nothing.
Maybe Reid was thinking of the Federal Deposit Insurance Coporation.
"How much debt can the Asian economies absorb?"
Between Asia and OPEC, they'll absorb all of it forever it would seem. Hell you'd think we conquered them. Somebody is doing as they're told. Not sure if them or us.
Worth repeating.
Christmas gifts tucked away in the 100 billion tax bill attached to this EMERGENCY Stabilization Act.
Tax breaks and credit extensions for the following:
Total; 100 billion to the deficit over the next 10 years.
In an EMERGENCY bill.
Criminal.
The credit markets have spoken. The TED spread is not going down despite the politicians' bailout enthusiasm.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP%3AIND
I nominate One Salient Oversight for comment of the day. Still lmao!
observer writes:
The credit markets have spoken. The TED spread is not going down despite the politicians' bailout enthusiasm.
Bad request 3AIND
3.6 now. It would seem that it needs congress to pass it without delay or else maybe a bigger package is now needed.
Comrade BVH II Wrote:
Worth repeating.
Christmas gifts tucked away in the 100 billion tax bill attached to this EMERGENCY Stabilization Act.
Tax breaks and credit extensions for the following.....
Every senator who added one of these provisions needs to be [insert specific form of reprimand / torture / punishment].
What they can't count are the many people whos benifits have run out and are doing odd jobs under the table for cash, I know several doing this, moving in with family members, dropping out of society as a taxpayer....
A hedge fund manager on CNBC Asia ("Hugh" didn't catch his last name) was saying he was up to his ears in long Bunds. He said he loves them. He said it is the only thing to hold (or gilts, or 30 year treasuries, depending on your currency basis etc).
Can anyone explain why buying a 30 year treasury at 4% yield is a great move under a full on recession scenario? under what scenario would long rates come down, and if they do, what kind of return does a bond buyer get today?
Dow down 113, even though Bailout is sure to pass.
CR, you are such a wit! "Probable recession" labelled next to the ever-widening blue veticle bar. What a hoot!
As the Target moves, the Arrow Bill fails to hit its mark.
TGT + $0.21
Dow down 113, even though Bailout is sure to pass.
I'm emailing and calling Issa's office this morning to encourage him to Hold Fast.
http://www.meaghanharrison.com/blog/uploaded_images/_MG_0233-748477.JPG
Markets going down because the evidence is mounting that the problems are not just financial. You delay a recession long enough, it grows into a depression.
A bit OT. There are some web sites in China polling for opinion on whether China should support (read buy treasury bills) US's bail out. Majority say yes.
Because China is a nation of savers (unlike the USA). The chinese also understand that buying our paper keeps the USD/CNY exchange rate from going out of whack. If they disconnect from buying paper, their goods would no longer be competitive here.
This situation is somewhat akin to holding a gun to each others head.
"If the EU countries do adopt some type of bank bailout of their own, would that push our long-term yields higher?"
Germans are saying "hell no" and busily taking out those Wunderwhips Of Economic Discipline from the 60's.
Nein, Nein, Englander. You will eat the bank crap and like it. Otherwise, we will strafe your arsch.
Diszipliniertheit!
Like any sufficiently complex and self-regulating system the mere fact that congress is meddling is probably more harm than good.
497k initial claims---the start of the "Great Recession!"
Time for an Amerikanischer Herbst?
YouTube - Ton Steine Scherben -- Macht kaputt was euch kaputt macht
It is autumn, you know.
Can anyone explain why buying a 30 year treasury at 4% yield is a great move under a full on recession scenario?
In a recession, who is going to own equity? The resulting flight to quality drives up the price of US Treasuries. Of course, the fact that this is a global recession magnifies this effect.
Market going down because this is a solvency crisis, not liquidity crisis. They can keep throwing all the money they want at bad loans, that won't make them good or make bad bankrupt companies solvent. IT sure as hell won't restore confidence in our government's ability to effectively manage the economy or markets.
volume is high for this early
The resulting flight to quality
So.. my bond-fu is weak. If you buy a 30yr treasury now at 4% yield, and yields go to sub 1% at peak recession despair, what has the mark-to-market on the bond changed by? ie, what do you make as a return (on paper, of course, you may not wish to sell under that scenario).
CR,
What color on the graph will you use for probable Depression?
After WWI (yes, one) Germans were expected to pay war repatriations until 1984. Well, Americans could do better! Why not issue a special 300 year T-bill?!
Obvious analogy--US citizens have been raped by a smirky idiot for 8 years, next month is the parole hearing, time for a gang bang.
Mel | 10.02.08 - 9:36 am |
They do that at parole hearings?
does anyone know when this house vote is scheduled??
They do that at parole hearings?
Anan | 10.02.08 - 9:58 am | #
no--the victim might get released--last shots.
Hilipatihippa writes:
After WWI (yes, one) Germans were expected to pay war repatriations until 1984. Well, Americans could do better! Why not issue a special 300 year T-bill?!
I remember about 20 years ago Disney? floated some 100 year bonds. We laughed our asses off as they were jammed into MF's and Pensions by the IB's. Everyone knew they were a POS, but they paid like 5 points.
It's all about the book to bill ratio. The IB's look at their book, then they look at their bills. Then they sell the product with the highest vig to their book.
CR,
I know it is a fools errand to chase every datum and I respect you for that and your awesome analytical abilities. Do you have a schedule for we loyal readers as to when you will feel confortable revising your predictions of recession, unemployment, et al? Will the revisions to construction and finance employment be enough? California's weighted drag on the national economy? Credit contraction, etc.?
For but one instance; I believe 8% is at best a worst case unemployment figure rather than the peak you've been calling so far.
Heck we haven't even talked about auto sales. Carmax lays off 6000, Cerebrus teetering, volume at 1982 levels, $3.50 gas, on and on.
TrimTabs, which parses through tax receipts to determine job creation, estimates 231k jobs were lost in September:
Worried About Cash on Hand, Employers Thin Ranks, Shelve Hiring Plans | workforce.com
Earlier this year TrimTabs caught a major inflection point that most people missed:
Calculated Risk: TrimTabs: Job Losses in February
Why is gold going down today?
Why is gold going down today?
Nations dumping their unknown supplies to shore up their balance sheets?
rowen writes:
harry reid promised that the bailout would keep people employed.
rowen | 10.02.08 - 9:20 am |
You are confusing him with Sarah Palin in the Couric interview!
Chainsaw writes:
Why is gold going down today?
Gold should go down to below 800 if it gets real bad.
Campbell's Soup (CPB) is not doing too bad.
CPB: Summary for CAMPBELL SOUP CO- Yahoo! Finance
"But beyond chaos lies complexity that truly is unpredictable and cannot be modeled with even the most powerful computers."
Yes, of course.
Geez, what a complete cluster$%#$ this economy has become.
When we look back and correct numbers, I think the recession may be dated as early as November 2007, and no later than February 2008.
I think the bill passing congress is now a certaintly and it's all priced in already. My guess is that the day after it failed the first time Bush took a lot of angry calls from governments around the world that the US (a) owes money to or (b) sold toxic assets to (that's gotta be a lot of calls, right) and the calls prbably went along the line of, "To hell with your democratic processes. You made this mess, now fix it. Fix it now or we stop selling our gold and start buying it". You are now seeing the US bending to the whims of its overseas masters. That is why debt is so awful, the creditors own you.
August durable orders down 4.8%
Proshares needs to come out with an Ultra Ted Spread ETF. That would be a performer right now.
"After WWI (yes, one) Germans were expected to pay war repatriations until 1984. Well, Americans could do better! Why not issue a special 300 year T-bill?!"
The Brits finished paying off WWII debt to the US in about 2003.
That 630 billion the FED injected sure did alot to calm the market. Let's throw another 700 billion down the drain.
THEN WHAT?
Ok, lets travel in time to CR, October 5, 2009. The posted threads are:
GM Files Bankruptcy.
Third Large Pension Fund Failure.
Unemplyment tops 15% in California
Most will probably agree these are possible. Which one is addressed by the 700 billion bailout? None.
Anonymous writes:
August durable orders down 4.8%
Anonymous | 10.02.08 - 10:07 am
And that was before the hurricanes...
Dow down 198
"THEN WHAT?"
A question always posed by sanity.
There is money in the bill for NASCAR tracks? Hell, we need that.
If you buy a 30yr treasury now at 4% yield, and yields go to sub 1% at peak recession despair, what has the mark-to-market on the bond changed by?
remember yield and price are inversely related. Here is a quick synopsis of the various scenarios (e.g. coupon/no coupon, etc)
Estimating Yields on Treasury Securities - Fedpoints - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Rob Dawg writes: I believe 8% is at best a worst case unemployment figure rather than the peak you've been calling so far.
I am assuming you meant "at best, a best case unemployment figure", unless I reading this wrong.
Assuming that CR's information was correct (see below), all the weird separate provisions in the bailout bill were not "tacked on" to the bailout, but were part of pre-existing legislation, and for some reason the bailout bill was added to it. Why, I don't know, but I suspect it was to increase the chances of passage, since no legislator wants to vote against his own pork. That being said, the arrow-making thing is a complete joke, and perfectly illustrates the idiocy of the current system.
"My understanding is the bailout bill was attached to another bill for procedural reasons, and that that other bill had all the weird provisions (Senators weren't trying to add them to the bailout bill specifically)."
Thats Ballgame Comrades writes:
Dow down 198
Yes, but just imagine the if Senate had voted it down. Why aren't you more thankful?
Comrade BVH,
the crime is that those items were part of a preexisting bill... the 700 billion is the Rider...
roflmao
Peter-san writes:
"When we look back and correct numbers, I think the recession may be dated as early as November 2007, and no later than February 2008."
Yes. Agreed. I'm soooo tired of the "dude, where's the recession?" refrain.
Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Wachovia Corp. curbed access to a $9.3 billion investment fund used by more than 900 colleges to pay salaries, maintenance and other expenses and said it plans to sell the portfolio by the end of the year.
Sell the portfolio for?????
THEN WHAT?
My letter to my incumbent Democratic Senator, Salazar of Colorado, sent last night. A similar letter was sent to Allard (R) although he's retiring this year --
This lifetime Democratic voter will oppose and help fund your opponent when you attempt to run again. I will do everything I can to convince every voter I know to vote against your return to the Senate.
Today's vote in favor of bailing out the Wall Street millionaires on the backs of the American people was inexcusable.
You were conned and in turn tried to con us. You had your chance to stand tall for Colorado citizens, but you cowered and ran with your tail between your legs into the arms of the corporate fat cats.
You sir, are a coward and a disgrace.
Days like today are why I don't day trade. I'm loaded up on GRXXZ and BEARX and everything in me was screaming SELL yesterday. Glad I didn't.
They took our jobs!
interesting... does retail get a bye on margin call due to mark to myth?
I blame future administrations.
Dow was down 228 but is now down 214.
Things are already getting better!
remember yield and price are inversely related. Here is a quick synopsis of the various scenarios (e.g. coupon/no coupon, etc)
thanks, I understand all that, just wasn't aware of the gearing. But I ran a bond calculator and basically if there is a massive flight to quality and 30 year yields are pushed down by a couple of 100bp, then your bond goes up in resale value by, like, 50% ..
Days like today are why I don't day trade. I'm loaded up on GRXXZ
I meant GRZZX.
I called my congressman's (Eric Cantor an uber conservative) office this morning. After explaining my strong reservations about the bill and how the free markets work. I asked how_is_this_bill_going_to_help_mainstreet? Silence.
Left the intern with 'Cantor has decide whether he's a socialist or a capitalist'.
This is getting scary.
Seeing one societal collapse is enough for one life time. I hope I am simply being neurotic and irrationally anxious.
Bad News Fest #394 or is it another groundhog day?
Next we price in a long recession. LT investors can start buying soon I think. Maybe 2 weeks to a month for an initial tranche. At least that's the way I'm playing it.
"Hank Paulson writes:
I blame future administrations."
When the CERN experiment gets up and running that would be entirely possible.
So the market tanks and thus we NEED the bailout to pass.
Then they pass the bailout in the Senate and the market tanks.
Is that about right?
Traders are blackmailing Congress again.
Either that or they think the bailout bill won't, you know, actually work. Funny, that.
Congress should take that 1.3 trillion and create a WPA jobs program, hell we could even let the bankers participate shoveling gravel after there banks went boom. hahaha that would be a hoot.
"Seeing one societal collapse is enough for one life time. I hope I am simply being neurotic and irrationally anxious."
Well, there is always Sweden!
Everybody back in the pile!
CP down nearly $100 bln in the week ended yesterday. The good news is that real-side firms only lost $0.8 bln in access to CP funding. The financial sector took the overwhelming majority of the hit. However, smaller firms don't hit CP. They hit financial firms for loans, and financial firms use CP to finance the loans, so I guess non-financial firms lost a bit more than $800 mln in short term financing in the latest week. Oh, forgot to mention that non-financials never recovered from the $18 bln drop in CP 2 weeks ago.
Clueless you stole my letter
Comrade Clueless Dufus:
I think Sen. Wayne Allard voted against. At least that is what is saw on a website last night. And if you see something on the internet you KNOW it's true.
Question: Why would anyone have money in the stock market now?
Short or long it is now clearly manipulated
Gold should go down to below 800 if it gets real bad.
Ignoramus | 10.02.08 - 10:05 am | #
Yes our sausage only costs that when we do not have any too.
A Run on Precious Metals: As Crisis Grows, Investors Look to Gold - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
Ted spread is at 3.62 and increasing.
I have a bad feeling about this...
MotT- So true....
Just trying to grasp why dollar is up and gold is down...very confused...
My mother is now calling me telling me to pull my money out of the Euro and Gold, and put it into Cash.
Can one of the intelligent people here explain to me why the Dollar is getting stronger, and why in the world I would want to invest in the Dollar.
Overstock.com sells discounted merchandise online.
Has now opened a new division...selling discounted real estate online. Seriously.
Overstock Real Estate Home - search millions of properties
TED's cousin VIX 42.73
Buckle up...
CPB: Summary for CAMPBELL SOUP CO- Yahoo! Finance
Campbell's Soup, now in the green!
When the House resuscitated the zombie HR3997 (a bill for benefits to military families) they stripped out everything and replaced it with their version of the bailout.
Senate didn't have to leave the wooden arrow stuff in there, they did it on purpose.
I am so impressed with our bicameral legislature. About as effective as a couple of camels.
When commenting on this number 597k, the government states it would have been less except for the two recent hurricanes. Well. This is kinda like the inflation is awful, but "core" inflation isn't as awful as real inflation. I mean, the number is initial claims for unemployment. Not "core" claims, or claims ex-hurricana...sheeeeeeesh.... inflation is inflation, unemployment claims are unemployment claims..
You want to invest in the dollar because you are scared and you have been conditioned since you were a fetus to think dollars are valuable.
It's also been proven that if you issue debt to pay off debt, you are rich again.
I see GE pain.
well, didn't Trichet cut today?
dollar is getting stronger because if the worlds biggest economy by far goes into a deep recession along with G7, the impact on the emerging markets is horrendous.
Since a lot of those countries have a thin layer of extremely rich people with mobile capital over a restless proletariat, what currency do you think they are most interested in holding?
That's my theory anyway.
Someone call Congress and tell them the 401k's are going down today. They need to do something....else.
Can one of the intelligent people here explain to me why the Dollar is getting stronger
With every passing hour, there are fewer dollars in existence.
Congress should just pass a law to ban the TED spread and LIBOR altogether. After all, shorts were banned by the SEC, and that couldn't possibly end badly, could it?
elaine writes:
Ted spread is at 3.62 and increasing.
Holy shit.
I like the talk of WPA programs, infrastucture, all that stuff. I'm sure you caould round up 15,000 mortgage brokers to go build a dam in Arizona.
sorry seulement machoire (Jawboning)
Because even the combination of congress / treasury / Fed may not be able to reinflate the money supply as fast as it is being destroyed.
CSS,
You'll notice that the dollar's strength ahs been all-of-a-sudden like. I won't pretend to explain it all for you, but I think some part of it has to do with the Fed providing bigger dollar swaps to other central banks. Foriegn firms had little access to dollars from commercial banks for awhile, and needed to make dollar payments. The swaps mean they now have access to dollars and are grabbing them to make payments. That makes this just a blip, until payments get worked out. The more obvious impact of putting lots of additional dollars in the fx market should be that the dollar gives ground. I'm hearing the argument that risk aversion is at work, but it has to be a particular kind of risk. If US investors have more (short-term) money at risk abroad than vice versa, then shedding fx risk would mean the dollar is bid. I don't know if that's true.
Buy gold, buy gold.
So holding dollars suddenly might not be a bad thing after all?
My head is starting to hurt.
Rounding up 15000 mortgage brokers? Like herding cats?
Because the Bailout Bill is DEFLATIONARY.
The alternative is that Bernanke prints, unsterilized.
This is a way to sterilize $700B of printing, by taxing Americans for it.
They can keep throwing all the money they want at bad loans, that won't make them good or make bad bankrupt companies solvent.
If you believe Sirota's blog (Open Left), and I do, there was a Treasury call-in in which the strategy to sell to healthier banks was discussed. They don't want to buy from the worst banks most in danger of failing.
I'd been scratching my head over giving banks incentive to participate (with non-enforceable provisions, for example). This made it make some sense.
At the turn of the last century, financial dowturns were called panics, but then that was ditched in favor of depressions, but after the Great Depression, that term was too scary so they started to say REcession.
In the vein of political correctness, we should agree ahead of time for the new term for an economic downturn.
I propose: super-happy-fun-time.
So, instead of Great Depression II, we would have Super-Happy-Fun-Time I.
Doesn't that make it all better?
That depends on how you are "holding" them.
Here in NJ I contacted Menendez and Lautenberg and called there vote a craven act of political weakness by acting in opposition to 70% of the American people.
Hoover Dam was RFC not WPA. That's why they named it after Hoover, and Hoover was there when it was dedicated.
Stuff like park benches was WPA.
Oh yeah, Roosevelt was our savior.
That depends on how you are "holding" them.
Peter-san
Mattresses?
Bruce in Tennessee writes:
Rounding up 15000 mortgage brokers? Like herding cats?
Herding fat cats.
Ron Paul and Tim Murphy said it's still 9-1 against
Instead of depression, call it "bananas"....I think I am not the first to have this idea..
tg writes:
Gold should go down to below 800 if it gets real bad.
Ignoramus | 10.02.08 - 10:05 am | #
Yes our sausage only costs that when we do not have any too.
SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten internatio...,581923,00.html
Good article but the reality is different no? It should fall some more.
the man from nantucket writes:
I think Sen. Wayne Allard voted against.
Not per the tally I saw and also the tone of his email responses to my daily emails asking him to vote against
So holding dollars suddenly might not be a bad thing after all?
comrade do not play dumb you know it could be the best investment.
The above "eliminate the TED spread" was offered in levity, but here's an interesting point:
From a link at CR's sidebar:
TED = LIBOR3 - LIBOR0
+ LIBOR0 - TARGET (fed funds rt)
+ TARGET - TREASURY
Only the last term is within US control, and lowering it might risk inflation. LIBOR3 - LIBOR0 is the 3 month versus overnight risk premium in LIBOR, which could be eliminated by charging as much for overnight loans as for 3 month loans, which wouldn't fix anything.
There are "official" polls that have the public slightly in favor.
They must be reliable. They're run by Diebold!
Did you see the vote volume on the CNBC(?) online poll the other day? They must have been "printing" a lot of pro-bailout votes.
****SEC Alert****
Blogging on Calculated Risk is now banned until October 17. By law this blogging ban cannot be extended beyond this date. This is a temporary measure designed to allow the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act to begin to normalize financial market activity.
The SEC has learned that some bloggers are acting as agents of foreign powers that seek to undermine the USA by spreading false rumours about the economy. The SEC has also strengthened enforcement actions against the illegal activity known as naked blogging.
The dollar rally plays right into the Feds hands. If the dollar maintains value, the Fed will have the power to do the same thing in a few years from now. If this problem was caused by the Fed, it seems the market should turn away from the dollar because it is pretty clear that all the money the Fed made shouldn't have been made.
At some point the issue of mistrust of the Fed needs to be vetted in the market, IMO of course.
illegal activity known as naked blogging.
squeezed | 10.02.08 - 10:38 am | #
The imagination recoils
OT, but heard that armored car service made 3 emergency runs yesterday to local National City branches to provide cash for account withdrawals. (One branch ran out and had to give the depositor coin!) Word here is that people are panicking and switching from National City. But hell they don't even want a cashier's check, just currency.
Allard voted Nay.
I've been a bum since 05, so what if I was early the less I make the less they can take.
I naked blog everyday. Do they want to come arrest me right now?!?! I can't wait...
The naked blogging reference seems to be an invitation for me to make a joke, but frankly, I am too dispirited right now.
We had a republic functioning again--for 2 days.
"Banana" is the correct term. The history is that a White House economic advisor used the word "recession" in a speech and caught hell for it from the president. He told reporters that from then on, he would use the word "banana" when he meant recession. "Banana" is attributed to both Herb Stein (under Ford) and Alfred Kahn (under Carter).
Lawyer-lol
felt good while it lasted...
Comrade Baron Von Helmut III writes:
That 630 billion the FED injected sure did alot to calm the market. Let's throw another 700 billion down the drain.
THEN WHAT?
Another 700B until paulson leaves.
Then the US will have to nationalize a few banks and let the rest actually failed. Which banks, I think you know already.
Other alternatives are Ireland plan.
While it's not a liquidity issue per se, although it actually is because no one wants to lend, the fear is insolvency in banks however it's main cause of this lending tightness is perception and that means it becomes a Confidence issue.
Nationalization would solve this.
Why is the dollar rallying?
Mostly because Europe is in much worse shape than the US. Some EU banks are leveraged @ 60 to 1 and one of the best is 'only' leveraged at 32 to 1. The EU has been pumping money into the system just as fast as the Fed, they just have the good sense to keep their mouths shut about it.
Most forex traders know this and are waiting to see what is happening. They are 'voting' with their money.
Dow down 230
In a few years our re-elected representatives will hire a consulting firm to make up numbers on avoided drop in GDP attributed to the bailout and declare that the bailoout made a huge profit. They will then be re-re-elected. I see no hope the taxpayer will see any of the $700 billion (or whatever higher number it will eventually be).
New Thread Up
Hell, a lot of us blog in our underwear.
We will see overall deflation of money supply in the near term. So long bonds may look attractive. Problem is that hyperinflation is on the other side of the horizon. Long bonds have less liquid market, and will be nearly impossible to ditch once hyperinflation shows up for dinner.
Uncertain timing + illiquidity = FAIL
Why not just stay in cash whilst enjoying deflation, and then when the time is right jump into glod?
Talking about the Ireland plan and liquidity makes me think of Guinness, which ain't a bad thing these days. I'm putting what I've got into alcohol.
KS, AL, LA, MS, WY had both Senators vote Nay. Women Senators were a substantial number of the Nays, they had more courage (or intelligence or perspective) than the men on average.
Why doesn't the Government look to cut its own spending and programs to finance (at least some) of this?
Too practical, too prudent, too difficult (for them)...I know.
However, the taxpayer has been or is being forced to do this very thing.
and then when the time is right jump into glod?
my credit is crunchy | 10.02.08 - 10:58 am | #
Let us all know when that is. TIA
The list of Senators that had a moment of clarity, or couldn't hold their nose:
Allard (R-CO)
Barrasso (R-WY)
Brownback (R-KS)
Bunning (R-KY)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Cochran (R-MS)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Dole (R-NC)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Enzi (R-WY)
Feingold (D-WI)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Johnson (D-SD)
Landrieu (D-LA)
Nelson (D-FL)
Roberts (R-KS)
Sanders (I-VT)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)
Stabenow (D-MI)
Tester (D-MT)
Vitter (R-LA)
Wicker (R-MS)
Wyden (D-OR)
Good thing we're not in a recession, like all those permabulls told us.
Can you imagine how bad this would be if we were in a recession?
No? You'll get your chance soon enough.
dr munch writes:
"I like the talk of WPA programs, infrastucture, all that stuff. I'm sure you caould round up 15,000 mortgage brokers to go build a dam in Arizona."
The Sierra Club would object.
"Banana" is the correct term. The history is that a White House economic advisor used the word "recession" in a speech and caught hell for it from the president. He told reporters that from then on, he would use the word "banana" when he meant recession.
So ... we've become a "banana republic" in more ways than one, then?
Thank you. I'll be here all week.
taxpayer giacutter writes:
In the vein of political correctness, we should agree ahead of time for the new term for an economic downturn
Expansion Holiday
Expansion is good and holidays are fun..
Looks like the 4wk avg hit just about 500k towards the end of both of the 2 last recessions. We now have 2 weeks near that level, and I doubt anyone would claim that we are about to come out of a recession. I agree that the Sept Jobs report will be ugly, but it will probably look like a friggin beauty queen vs. what the Oct. report will look like. The current wave of the credit crunch only hit late in the month, and the employment response to tight credit is not going to be in a matter of days, it will be a matter of weeks and months.
Sanders (I-VT)
For some reason, I find this funniest of all.
The biggest piece of Vladimir-bar-the-door socalism in an American legislative bill in, what, 70 years? ... and the only socialist in either house of Congress votes against it.
We are certainly seeing the definition of "strange bedfellows" play out here.
the bailout will create jobs when the fed sends everyone a bucket to start... bailing....
I've heard all of the whining I can stand. Don't you know the economy is in good shape and the only people that disagree with those factoids are whiners.
Now just be quiet, reach for your pocket book and pay up. Those rich fat cat bankers need the money, they have payments too you know.
Jobless claims chart still isn't adjusted for population growth, meaning that the "probable recession" is completely misleading. 497,000 jobless claims now is not the same thing as a similar number 7 years ago when the population was lower, and way not the same thing as 17 years ago when the population was a lot lower.
Oh, well. Gretchen Morgenson must be doing the charts.
))
Sebastia
Trichet did not cut today. Said they were not as concerned about inflation though, leaving the possibility open of a cut later in the year. I think the prospect that Europe might cut later in the year when they have resisted so far, has resulted in some of the dollar strength today.
rent_to_own | 10.02.08 - 12:00 pm
Great post as usual!
Hey, I want to write a new book.
Rich Dead, Poor Dead
or,
How to profit from robbing the dead.
"But I'm not dead yet."
Maybe a new handle? Steal if you like. It's the 'merkun wall street way, after all.
fried writes:
Overstock.com sells discounted merchandise online.
Has now opened a new division...selling discounted real estate online. Seriously.
Overstock Real Estate Home - search millions of properties
fried | 10.02.08 - 10:26 am | #
Wow. Just.... wow.
Shipping must be a real beyotch, though. And if you use USPS, forget about tracking.
For some reason, I find this funniest of all.
The biggest piece of Vladimir-bar-the-door socalism in an American legislative bill in, what, 70 years? ... and the only socialist in either house of Congress votes against it.
We are certainly seeing the definition of "strange bedfellows" play out here.
He is a democratic socialist, not a corporate socialist. Got it?
...."the beatings will continue, until morale improves".
dumb question:
every month the payroll unemployment numbers are released and typ they bee
dumb question:
every month the payroll unemployment numbers are released and typ they been
~100k lately. But how come the jobless claims been typ 350 k and now ~500k ??
I am adding to my Spiders. Can't believe they are such cheap bargains