"The winter months are always weaker (for home sales), but this winter will be better than last winter," he said. "There is this great pent-up demand that cannot be held back any further."
Events of the last few days might make such economic optimism seem far-fetched. And even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has predicted continuing housing market weakness.
Yun, in fact, on Monday rebuked Bernanke for such predictions, saying if it's inappropriate to forecast stock or oil prices, "it is inappropriate to comment on home prices, because people react to that."
To applause from his Realtor audience, Yun said he had made that point in a letter to Bernanke.
Some good viewing of the House Oversight Committee on the Lehman bankruptcy ... LIVE
Some very heated words in the wake of the passage Friday of the bailout bill and today's market action. Several committee members have this totally nailed. "systematic stealing at such an unbelievable and grand scale that it is going to be very hard for us to unwind this"
College tution
Automobile sales - and all the parts people etc.
Boat sales
Actually any outside recreational use toys
Jewelry
Home furnishings
All the paperwork people who processed it
Vacations, and all the people dependent on that
Malls everywhere
Commercial real estate
Electronics
All the custom bathroom, tile, kitchen workers and companies
And I'm guessing central bankers all over the world are working on their coordinated global interest rate cut. And that will not work either. What we really really want is to see what on earth is in the banks' balance sheets. The banks need to mark to market their tier 3 crap NOW, take their write-offs NOW and stop all this dicking around with liquidity and interest rates. There is not trust in the market, and it's not coming back until the balance sheet issue is sorted out. Wake up central bankers we're not that stupid.
nova writes:
What is effected by no equity withdrawls?
College tution
Automobile sales - and all the parts people etc.
Boat sales
Actually any outside recreational use toys
Jewelry
Home furnishings...........
A precipitous drop in MEW withdrawal followed by a serious contraction of consumer spending -- when will the MSM make the connection? Our "growing economy," our "ownership economy" of the last five years has been a Ponzi scheme.
Yeah, yeah, said before, but it made me feel better.
Yes, but sometimes I have to remind myself what all this means exactly. As in the little world I live in. Somewhat like saying war is bad. War is bad and you are in the path of an armored division and they have the following objectives.
I find it extremely difficult to believe that there havent been a lot of people who are extracting home equity and using that money to short the market.
nova writes:
What is effected by no equity withdrawls?
College tution
Automobile sales - and all the parts people etc.
Boat sales
Actually any outside recreational use toys
Jewelry
Home furnishings...........
How about Casino Gambling,
or ill-advised RE investments
Bob Dobbs, we will probably see MEW go negative too ... that has happened before. That just means people are paying down their mortgages faster than other people are extracting equity.
Of course the only people with equity to extract are the people not interested in extracting equity (the 31% of homeowners without mortgages probably aren't going to run out and get a mortgage!).
Yes, the whole 'ponzi' economy and all the fake prosperity is gone. The only thing that can save us is wage increases. I am not holding my breath on that one though..
Every time you turn on cable television, you'd see the high life, right there in your face. House Hunters showing a nurse buying a second home in Roatan for 500k. My SuperSweet16 showing a birthday party for a girl that costs 250k, not including the custom Range Rover gift. Bling lifestyle, attitude, everybody is a star, the fabulous life.
So what if you can't afford it? Just lease it, rent it, put it on credit. The bill didn't come due for years.
Right now, life in the U.S. is like the ride at Everest rollercoaster ride at Disney Animal Kingdom Orlando:
That grinding sound you hear is the economy coming to a halt. The next noise you hear will be the economy going backward. Hold on to your shit!
Final heard on the radio this morning: There were 12,000 mortgages taken out by illegal aliens. They report that the default rate was only about 1% versus 3% for other (unspecified?) borrowers.
Of course the only people with equity to extract are the people not interested in extracting equity (the 31% of homeowners without mortgages probably aren't going to run out and get a mortgage!).
That grinding sound you hear is the economy coming to a halt. The next noise you hear will be the economy going backward. Hold on to your shit!
crying on the inside |
If I had the time and money I would write a book about this using Iceland as my metaphor.
Not feeling well today. Hence the numerous postings.
First off, some of this ID decision is often related to me jumping to another system or link and I end up dropping my embedded-tag @ CR, thus when I return here, I have a choice, do I wanna still be me or do I wanna morph into other things? I hate to bore you, but I have a love/hate relationship with structure, so perhaps that says it all?
Furthermore, I'm sorry to hear your not feeling well ; ) ®
From Counterpunch:
According to statistician John Williams: Commentaries
who measures inflation, unemployment, and GDP according to the methodology used prior to the Clinton regimes corruption of these measures, the US unemployment rate is currently at 14.7 per cent and the inflation rate is 13.2 per cent. Consequently, real US GDP growth in the 21st century has been negative. Roberts: Futile Bailout
Kona: We were just admiring the reflective qualities of his ponderous pate, and the fact that his wife is actually a rocket scientist. There was conjecture about whether or not his experience as an engineer would be helpful or not as we dispatched him to Iceland for a dry run on fixing an economy before we let him loose with our $700 Billions.
Wells Fargo gets favorable federal court ruling as it battles Citigroup to take over Wachovia
NEW YORK (AP) -- The battle for control of troubled bank Wachovia tilted toward Wells Fargo Sunday as a state appeals court blocked a lower court ruling that had favored rival bidder Citigroup.
Comrade, in at least half of those crises the USA imposed restructuring through the IMF. No way the Federal Reserve has the courage to raise rates to reinflate the yield curve
GMAC is out of leasing effective immediately. They were 16% of the US leasing market
crispy& cole | Homepage | 10.06.08 - 11:30 am | #
Leasing automobiles as a substitute for owning one will be looked at as one of the dumbest things people ever did.
Companies can sometimes justify it (especially for 'company cars' that are rarely ever used, have to be kept 'pristine' and never hit mileage limits)... but consumers almost NEVER can justify a lease.
If you don't use a car much (say urban dweller who mostly uses mass transit) then RENT one by the day on the rare occasion you need a car. If you drive more than that - buy one and be done with it.
Leasing was stupid for the consumer and stupid for the manufacturer - one of those rare lose-lose transactions.
"When systemic risk determinations are necessary and appropriate in the future, the FDIC will use its authority and its resources, on an open or closed-bank basis, to protect depositors, guarantee liabilities, facilitate orderly wind downs, mergers, or adopt other stabilizing measures."
What does this mean: "adopt other stabilizing measures"?
Bank holidays, currency controls, supervised access to safety deposit boxes, confiscation? I'm outta here.
But a Constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Pork once lost is lost forever.
John Adams, letter to Abigail Adams, 1775
lack of understanding and imagination in this financial crisis is amazing. Along with the bail out the Treasury should have created a central clearing agency for swap transactions that would be the counterparty for all swap transactions. Banks would be required to put up collateral and those that were unable to do so would be given the AIG treatment.
What the market needs to start functioning is clarity not bailouts.
LOL CSC......
" I'm stupid because i can't make an elephant lamp?"
"No your a genius cause you cant make a lamp, the world needs brokers as well......"
No. Leasing was not stupid for the manufacturer. Our glorious tax code made it so they could get accelerated depreciation on that vehicle, collect a monthly payment on it that was greater than the cost of production, and got to sell it on secondary market. They made a lot of money, more than selling it straight to the consumer. But COMPLETELY stupid for the consumer.
Sept 24, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- In its third quarterly report of 2008, the UCLA Anderson Forecast continues to advocate that the national economy is not technically in a recession, noting in particular that the (revised) second quarter 2008 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate was a surprisingly strong 3.3%. The Forecast readily acknowledges all of the current problems facing the economy and, recession or not, asserts that the national economy is "stalled."
Kona,
The USA in 1775 also was an outcast because of sanctioned piracy (actually created one of the first American stock markets by buying/selling shares of a ship) and copyright infringement
You can go back to the same place, but it will no longer be the same. Like visiting your childhood home as an adult
"The diversity of institutions and markets under stress, and the magnitude and complexity of the adjustment underway, requires that the tools available to policymakers, regulators and supervisors be used in forceful and coordinated ways across regulatory and supervisory agencies in the United States and throughout the world. This will involve moving with substantial force on a number of fronts."
Ah, methinks CR has stumbled onto the real solution:
Of course the only people with equity to extract are the people not interested in extracting equity (the 31% of homeowners without mortgages probably aren't going to run out and get a mortgage!).
Now, just how does Paulson and Bernanke make them want to?
I think the bulk of our commentors here live on the coasts, which probably skews their perception.
crying on the inside writes: My SuperSweet16 showing a birthday party for a girl that costs 250k, not including the custom Range Rover gift.
I remember when I turned 16, I did get a car as a present - an old beater which I sold to a classmate 6 months later (after 'improvements') for $150 bucks. Everyone I know (in WI) still has equity in their homes, but they aren't interested in HELOC-ing it away. Also, not many boob jobs around these parts. Some people get LASIK, but they don't take out second mortgages for the procedure.
Clearly, this reduction in MEW is a result of falling home prices, and in turn tightened underwriting criteria (which will presist) - you can think of the resulting negative MEW in the coming years as a measure of net 'forced savings'.
Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossien Nozari said Saturday that it would be "unsuitable" for both producers and consumers for oil to dip below $100 a barrel. He called on fellow OPEC members not to pump too much oil and avoid a drop in prices.
"Calculated Risk writes:
Bob Dobbs, we will probably see MEW go negative too ... that has happened before. That just means people are paying down their mortgages faster than other people are extracting equity."
Bad news for the consumer-based economy, for sure. The kind that feeds back on itself. We're just at the beginning of this, it's not really shown itself in the landscape of Main Street. But if you want to see who the first victims may be, look to your local GM dealer.
"Of course the only people with equity to extract are the people not interested in extracting equity (the 31% of homeowners without mortgages probably aren't going to run out and get a mortgage!)."
No, we're all sitting tight and trying to avoid the flying debris from this trainwreck.
We are now headed for
(1) Uncontrolled deleveraging
(2) Japan "please don't look behind the curtain, there are no real assets behind it" phantom growth
(3) Mix of 1 + 2
Need a Treasury who has the courage to lead, Paulson just wants to get the hell out of dodge before the gunfight
Every time you turn on cable television, you'd see the high life, right there in your face. House Hunters showing a nurse buying a second home in Roatan for 500k. My SuperSweet16 showing a birthday party for a girl that costs 250k, not including the custom Range Rover gift. Bling lifestyle, attitude, everybody is a star, the fabulous life.
God, I hated those people. Watching those idiotic jerks on TV for the last 5 years has been like having an ice pick jammed in your eye over and over again.
lawyerliz writes:
I think some of the lack of mew withdrawl is due to the fact that some percentage is actually getting (relatively) frugal.
Frugal. . .the new black.
We are all frugal now.
lawyerliz | 10.06.08 - 11:35 am | #
Not everyone - I was at Mall of America, 'The Galleria' in Edina and a huge outlet mall over the weekend - all were packed to the rafters.
The coup de grace for me: my daughter & DIL wanted to eat out a Cheesecake factory near the Galleria on Saturday night - not my choice, bad expensive food in a tacky environment - it was 8PM and the waiting list was till over an hour long.
So we went to a MOA restaurant instead (a place my DIL used to work and knew the staff)... took a half hour to get there and we still had to wait almost an hour to get seated! But they did comp us a bunch of stuff (because we were 'family' and it was late)...
I fully believe we are getting more frugal as a society - not out of desire but as a result of necessity, the reduction in MEW is exhibit one in evidence - but we got a LONG way to go.
CR writes
...Bob Dobbs, we will probably see MEW go negative too ... that has happened before. That just means people are paying down their mortgages faster than other people are extracting equity.
That what I did / am doing - paid off 60% of my LOC, with the balance to be gone (god willing) by year end.
The amount of money I am saving in interest alone is outperforming any investment I hoped to make (and we all know that LOC interest gets backed out in the AMT calc anyway).
Are not extracting home equity and paying down mortage a bad things?
Solar paint on steel could generate renewable energy - Report
It is reported that, in three years, buildings covered in steel sheets could be generating large amounts of solar electricity, thanks to a new photovoltaic paint that is being developed in a commercial partnership between UK university researchers and the steel industry.
As per report, these new solar cells also have the advantage of being able to absorb across the visible spectrum. That makes them more efficient at capturing low radiation light than conventional solar cells, and so well suited to the British climate with its many cloudy days. Steel Guru : Solar paint on steel could generate renewable energy - Report
Citi cut off one of my credit cards yesterday. No balance so I don't think it will affect my rating, but they must be hurting to get rid of high quality credit lines.
This is a major fear event... watch for a build out... this could be it - or waaay to early - a break below sso 39.13 is the key for this one - otherwise this could be the build.
I'll add to your anecdotal observation(s). Was at Disneyland Weds and Friday. Pretty packed for a weekday and people still had bags of crap (bought with credit I'm sure). Went out to dinner and can confirm that wait times were just about the same as you. One thing I did notice was that the build-a-bear workshop (in downtown disney) was a ghost town each time I passed it. This was with thousands of kids right next door.
On another note, Club 33 was a total waste of time. They used to have there own chef but it sure seems like they get the food from the hotels nowadays. It was on someone else's dime so I didn't have the pleasure of paying for food that I could have gotten at any hotel for a 1/10th of the price. My friend said that was the last time he would go. Terminated his membership on the spot.
They seemed to have heard this many times in the last month or so. BTW it's mostly filled with Arabs who don't care about price. It used to be a good restaurant (not great) but when there were no alternatives....good becomes great.
"Uncle Billy Vs. Mt. Pelerin wrote:
Final heard on the radio this morning: There were 12,000 mortgages taken out by illegal aliens. They report that the default rate was only about 1% versus 3% for other (unspecified?) borrowers"
I assume this particular graph can't go below zero? That is, it doesn't include any of the loss of value side of the ledger, just actual home equity credit loans?
"Guiseppe de Egypto writes:
I say turn around at the border all the Californicators who will be trying to escape the state. You broke it you bought it!"
Most of the people fleeing will be people who came here in the last ten years. You mean, you won't take them back?
Seriously,of the few people I knew who left in '93, most (not all) were those who'd come here for the opportunity some years ago. And when it vanished, so did they.
Re: The Federal Reserve also took fresh steps to help ease seized-up credit markets. The central bank said Monday it will begin paying interest on commercial banks' reserves and will expand its loan program to squeezed banks.
See Also: Resolution Funding Corporation ("REFCORP") obligations are backed, as to principal payments, by zero coupon U.S. Treasury bonds and, as to interest payments, ultimately by the U.S. Treasury.
People will cut back on toys but will increase their eating. Maybe it is a natural response. The Cut Flower Commission did a study and found that sales of flowers rose during the depression and prices were higher then than they are today in adjusted terms. Last year the sales of fresh fruits and vegetables were up 4-5%. Empty nesters and families with older children increased demand the most. As Americans age their consumption goes up and many immigrants already are used to a diet heavy with fruits and vegetables.
"I say turn around at the border all the Californicators who will be trying to escape the state. You broke it you bought it!"
Go ahead--play the California card, but most people here are recent transplants, so you get your people back. You can have them...the asshats who came to make a quick buck ruined my state.
I live in Upstate NY and we lost large gouts of young people to North Carolina in particular. So it's interesting to read that Charlotte is now realizing that oops, mebbe they shouldn't have tied their economy so much to financials.
They'll be coming back in dribs and drabs... those North Carolina expatriates eager to sleep in the basement and have Grandma babysit the chilluns.
SHOCKING!!! Another GS crony tapped to make millions.
"To that end, the administration was expected to announce shortly that it had tapped a 35-year-old former Goldman Sachs executive, Neel Kashkari, to head the government's rescue effort on an interim basis, according to an official who asked not to be named".
Too many things don't fit the published line on the market.... this is too easily billed as "the washout" event.... this is not the right time for the darkest hour... hold ammo, but load
"The Cut Flower Commission did a study and found that sales of flowers rose during the depression and prices were higher then than they are today in adjusted terms."
This is true. My dad was a floral wholesaler for 30+ years including during the 1970s. Those were some of the most brisk sales years.
"Despite widespread unease over the use of taxpayer money to salve Wall Streets wounds, it also seems virtually certain that lawmakers will in coming months confront anew demands for even greater government activism. Critics say the new federal legislation just wont do enough to resolve the banks chief problem: a crippling shortage of capital.
Already, prominent economists across the political spectrum are floating proposals that envision mammoth government spending beyond the $700 billion bailout. Among them: shuttering insolvent banks and providing taxpayer cash to those that can be saved; a temporary unlimited government guarantee of all bank deposits; or even direct financial aid to individual homeowners to ward off foreclosure.
This act alone is not really going to resolve anything. Eventually, the government is going to have to do more, says George Magnus, senior economic adviser to UBS in London."
Anonymous writes:
CEO of Coldwell Banker said seeing the President on TV will instill confidence in the American people and help the real estate market
So with MEW in the toilet, how long will it take before credit card companies crash/collapse?
Capital One has been giving credit to anyone with a pulse. Their default rates have been artificially lowered by MEW, and a ponzi scheme of more cards and ever-expanding credit. I suspect this business model will implode in a spectacular way.
Congress Hearing on LEH BK has just turned partisan... donkeys blaming the elephants and vice versa on FNM and FRE.
There really is no hope. Arghhhhhhhhh!
McCain claims credit for bailout while ripping Obama for inaction; an hour later, bailout fails
An aggressive Sen. John McCain used an Ohio rally on Monday to rip into Sen. Barack Obama while taking credit for helping engineer a $700 billion Wall Street bailout agreement, which he said proves he can get things done in Washington.
But an hour after McCain spoke at a small university here attacking Obama for doing too little to assist in reaching the unprecedented rescue plan, the measure failed to clear the U.S. House.
I can understand more people buying food (comfort), but flower? Why?
JoGa
Cheer and joy often come in small packages when times are tough. You can be in mean circumstances but a small vase of daffodils can make you smile everytime you pass them.
Bailout failure 'will cause US crash
The US stock market could suffer a devastating crash with shares losing a third of their value this week if Hank Paulsons financial bailout plan fails, US Treasury officials have warned. Bailout failure 'will cause US crash'
- Telegraph
The financial system could face a meltdown of 1929 proportions unless US politicians succeed in their efforts for a $700bn rescue scheme, experts added.
Comrade Barron [not a dope] Von Helmut,
I don't buy it... a market capitulation this soon after the infamous bailout is too embarrassing to the ptb - this won't stand.
Whereismyretirement writes: Cheer and joy often come in small packages when times are tough. You can be in mean circumstances but a small vase of daffodils can make you smile everytime you pass them.
I'll buy some for my wife on my way home tonight .....
....after I get my car repaired (I'm expecting I will be approached to consider replacing my 120,000 mile Camry - my over under is 5 minutes).
Like a bolt from the blue, descending from the sky
My brain collapses in the dead of night
Too much for my psyche, another crack-up
If you're awake, join me
All the things you see, the same as what I see
We listen to the sound of nervous breakdown
A death that blends with a will to live
One of the things that freaks me out
I'm waiting for a sign, have to leave this place behind
Where no one knows my name
Then later we'll calm down, we'll both break down and cry
(And say) our last goodbye.
I'll break the chains, I'm out of line
I'm living on my nerve, last days of ninety-nine
Nightmare, conspiracy, depression and lunacy
I need to feel, walled up inside
Locked up, messed up, maybe there is no tomorrow
All this thinking does me no good
I'll miss you my love, but it's about time
That this world goes up in flames."
Now carry on, you soon to be net worthless maggots
"Whereismyretirement wrote: Cheer and joy often come in small packages when times are tough. You can be in mean circumstances but a small vase of daffodils can make you smile everytime you pass them."
I never thought of eating them, but I'd do anything for a smile!
During trying times, flowers are a cheap way to bring a smile to your family.
A flower can also lead to enlightenment. Read about the Flower Sermon by the Buddha at Mount Grdhakuta.
But in these difficult times, flowers are an expenditure that many cannot afford. Don't worry, friends, CSC has some advice.
I am known as someone who regularly gives large bouquets of flowers. But my secret is that I never buy them.
Go to a local cemetery and sit by a grave. Look around. You will see people carrying large bouquets to place on the grave of a loved one. Once they leave, the flowers have served their purpose, and I recycle them.
I always find fresh, expensive bunches and never pay one red cent.
"I do like chimps but only when they're cheery and smart."
A real chimpanzee story from a National Zoo employee who knew a lot about wild animals:
A guy used to keep an adult male chimp in his house as a pet. This was not wise, because male adult chimpanzee can be violent, territorial, and they are immensely strong.
The owner and chimpanzee would sit on the front porch after breakfast smoking their cigarettes. One day a man walked by on the road, and the chimpanzee put down his cigarette, went up to the man on the road, seized him, and literally tore him limb from limb (they are that strong).
Coldwell Banker is a big part of the problem that we are in. I wonder how many sub-prime mortgages they helped to push through? Realtors in general are slime. I love the "ITIN Toolkit" published on the Realtor website. Homes for illegals made easy.
DK writes:
No more free money. Let's agree on one thing, the banks didn't have to lend the money in the first place.
Oh, but they did. CRA and ACORN made sure of that with the threat to the policians and the banks: give it or we'll tell all of your customers / voters are anti-joe six pack.
It was absolutely irrelevant that they could not afford their mortage payments (much less their property taxes and the upkeep).
What happened to all the martial arts studios closing?
FYI: People are running for safety,'' said Ram Bhagavatula, a portfolio manager at Combinatorics Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that has $45 million under management.There's huge premium for safety bets: the dollar and the yen. A global recession is coming.'
The CSPAN hearings, some congressmen actually have intelligent questions. Kucinich is great, Elijah Cummings was good too. Now, why can't they understand the TARP crap too? Thank God I pushed the short button on the bar this morning.
National City hasn't cut me off, in fact they keep asking me to take more out....not that I have any interest in doing that when I may not have a job by the end of the year
MS writes:
Does anyone still have one to use???
regardless of how much equity you may have... I'm under the impression that most of them got shut off.
Alcoa dropped 7.7 percent to $17.75. UBS cut its price target by 46 percent to $25.
KKR Financial Holdings LLC (KFN:US) lost 27 percent to $4.13 and slipped earlier to $3.59, the lowest intraday price since June 2005. The debt-investment affiliate of buyout firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. was downgraded to neutral'' fromoverweight'' by JPMorgan Chase & Co. on expectations a recession may spur more defaults and reduce the value of its investments.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT:US) slid 5.3 percent to $56.59 and earlier fell to $56.23 for the biggest intraday loss in two months. The world's largest retailer was cut to neutral'' frombuy'' at UBS, which said the company is ``unlikely to be immune'' from a worsening economy and increasing competition
I remember when I turned 16, I did get a car as a present - an old beater which I sold to a classmate 6 months later (after 'improvements') for $150 bucks. Everyone I know (in WI) still has equity in their homes, but they aren't interested in HELOC-ing it away. --Shnaps
I'm from WI too, and I don't understand the affluent lifestyles of the coasts. The crazy lifestyles explain why they're so panicked by every hiccup in the economy. I just don't get why they chose to live like that. It seems like an unhappy existance.
First
Been a while since we had a MEW post.
Can't we have something posted that is up today, .... I mean it would help to drink coffee with one hand for a change.
Yay! More good news... my home is really worth nothing!
Sigh
BTW, what's become of Tanta? Is she ok, CR?
finally, that unsustainable crutch of growth is gone.
But when will late night TV stop running ads for HEW LOCs???
Zero is what happens when there is NO equity left.
"The winter months are always weaker (for home sales), but this winter will be better than last winter," he said. "There is this great pent-up demand that cannot be held back any further."
Events of the last few days might make such economic optimism seem far-fetched. And even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has predicted continuing housing market weakness.
Yun, in fact, on Monday rebuked Bernanke for such predictions, saying if it's inappropriate to forecast stock or oil prices, "it is inappropriate to comment on home prices, because people react to that."
To applause from his Realtor audience, Yun said he had made that point in a letter to Bernanke.
Lawrence Yun Watch - Follow the NAR's hack as he denies the housing bubble and crash
Maybe Yun jumps today?
Where is Tanta?
barkingtribe - the VIX is up around 50... So there's something that is up
Yeah, where is Tanta. We need her cliff diving comments, now on the dow, for heaven's sakes.
lawyerliz ,
Your getting worse than nemo -- and to think, I offered to work for you a few days ago. What's 3K miles between posters?
Posted on the previous thread, it is on-topic here.
GMAC is out of leasing effective immediately. They were 16% of the US leasing market
MSN has an offer that says:
Dive into our new Investors Center.
an infelicious turn of phrase.
Now we know why the economy is in recession!
Some good viewing of the House Oversight Committee on the Lehman bankruptcy ... LIVE
Some very heated words in the wake of the passage Friday of the bailout bill and today's market action. Several committee members have this totally nailed. "systematic stealing at such an unbelievable and grand scale that it is going to be very hard for us to unwind this"
CNBC Live Video: Watch the Latest Market Reporting and Analysis - CNBC.com
Been a while since we had a MEW post.
Nemo
I'm convinced CR was an impresario in an earlier incarnation. Kind of like a DJ 100 years ago.
Anonymous/Kona? you've got to decide who you are.
Not feeling well today. Hence the numerous postings.
Cars, vacations, knick knacks have all depended on MEW for the last 5 years (last 10 years in CA)
Bernanke must be thinking: my bullets, my bullets... why did I waste them?
lawyerliz,
get a prescription for ritalin..
I think some of the lack of mew withdrawl is due to the fact that some percentage is actually getting (relatively) frugal.
Frugal. . .the new black.
We are all frugal now.
I guess that mild recession should be over pretty soon, then.
No.. MEW reduction is not voluntary! It is gonna cause a bad withdrawal.
lawyerliz writes:
I think some of the lack of mew withdrawl is due to the fact that some percentage is actually getting (relatively) frugal.
I am definitely going garage saleing this weekend.
So where's my 2nd half recovery?
Why those lyin...
So 10% of net overall personal disposable income two years ago was mortgage equity withdraw?!?
And now 0? So the US consumer has taken a net 5% paycut effectively? OWWchers..
IOR ....that's printing...no other way around it
What recession? There ain't gonna be no recession. Didn't you get the memo?
Kinda hard to HELOC when you gots negative equity.
I think the FED should use the 700B to pay off every americans credit card.
Yep!!
Comrade Dope Baron Von Helmut writes:
Kinda hard to HELOC when you gots negative equity.
Fuld is being skewered by the House Oversight committee.
What is effected by no equity withdrawls?
College tution
Automobile sales - and all the parts people etc.
Boat sales
Actually any outside recreational use toys
Jewelry
Home furnishings
All the paperwork people who processed it
Vacations, and all the people dependent on that
Malls everywhere
Commercial real estate
Electronics
All the custom bathroom, tile, kitchen workers and companies
I think it was much more than that in California.
Nicholas Weaver writes:
So 10% of net overall personal disposable income two years ago was mortgage equity withdraw?!?
cspan1 is covering the leh bankruptcy
http://play.rbn.com/play.asx?url=cspan/cspan/wmlive/cspan1v.asf&proto=mms?mswmext=.asx
And I'm guessing central bankers all over the world are working on their coordinated global interest rate cut. And that will not work either. What we really really want is to see what on earth is in the banks' balance sheets. The banks need to mark to market their tier 3 crap NOW, take their write-offs NOW and stop all this dicking around with liquidity and interest rates. There is not trust in the market, and it's not coming back until the balance sheet issue is sorted out. Wake up central bankers we're not that stupid.
Monday Monday.. Da daaa da da daaa da...
Can't trust that day.. Da daaa da da daaa da...
I am going long Garbage Mining
"I think the FED should use the 700B to pay off every americans credit card".
That's next, except that they of course will pay the issuers instead.
You could just have said - the whole economy
nova writes:
What is effected by no equity withdrawls?
College tution
Automobile sales - and all the parts people etc.
Boat sales
Actually any outside recreational use toys
Jewelry
Home furnishings...........
The dead cat is still dead.
A precipitous drop in MEW withdrawal followed by a serious contraction of consumer spending -- when will the MSM make the connection? Our "growing economy," our "ownership economy" of the last five years has been a Ponzi scheme.
Yeah, yeah, said before, but it made me feel better.
If the PPT is dead, who will I be able to blame for my bad calls ???
I am waiting for the public executions!
darkmatter writes:
cspan1 is covering the leh bankruptcy
Well, the opposite of mortgage-equity extraction is accumulation, so this isn't all bad.
Nova - you missed boob jobs.
satan | 10.06.08 - 11:40 am
Yes, but sometimes I have to remind myself what all this means exactly. As in the little world I live in. Somewhat like saying war is bad. War is bad and you are in the path of an armored division and they have the following objectives.
Well, what do we extract equity out of now? I suggest we start extracting it out of Second Life real estate.
It is kinda hard to accumulate anything other than water, when you are underwater
__
Shnaps writes:
Well, the opposite of mortgage-equity extraction is accumulation, so this isn't all bad.
He accidentally the whole economy.
drop.io a1b2c3d4e
I find it extremely difficult to believe that there havent been a lot of people who are extracting home equity and using that money to short the market.
Does anyone still have one to use???
regardless of how much equity you may have... I'm under the impression that most of them got shut off.
Anyone??
Ciao
MS
Nova - you missed boob jobs.
And facelifts. Also Lasik eye surgery. Hmm...
nova writes:
What is effected by no equity withdrawls?
College tution
Automobile sales - and all the parts people etc.
Boat sales
Actually any outside recreational use toys
Jewelry
Home furnishings...........
How about Casino Gambling,
or ill-advised RE investments
Popeye --
If the PPT is dead, who will I be able to blame for my bad calls ???
"Whom".
Funny comment. Is this where all the PPT believers go long to play the "overdue technical bounce" and get crushed?
Bob Dobbs, we will probably see MEW go negative too ... that has happened before. That just means people are paying down their mortgages faster than other people are extracting equity.
Of course the only people with equity to extract are the people not interested in extracting equity (the 31% of homeowners without mortgages probably aren't going to run out and get a mortgage!).
Best to all.
Hi Nova,
Yes, the whole 'ponzi' economy and all the fake prosperity is gone. The only thing that can save us is wage increases. I am not holding my breath on that one though..
"There is this great pent-up demand that cannot be held back any further"
Yunning it up
Will Eric Estrada ever work again?
emo-
someone here already tried.....
Hope they had a tight stop.
Ciao
MS
Nova, maybe it's simpler than that.
What was contingent upon MEW ? :
Every time you turn on cable television, you'd see the high life, right there in your face. House Hunters showing a nurse buying a second home in Roatan for 500k. My SuperSweet16 showing a birthday party for a girl that costs 250k, not including the custom Range Rover gift. Bling lifestyle, attitude, everybody is a star, the fabulous life.
So what if you can't afford it? Just lease it, rent it, put it on credit. The bill didn't come due for years.
Right now, life in the U.S. is like the ride at Everest rollercoaster ride at Disney Animal Kingdom Orlando:
That grinding sound you hear is the economy coming to a halt. The next noise you hear will be the economy going backward. Hold on to your shit!
OT: Any guesses on whether the non-stop sales pitches I see for reverse mortgages will dry up?
Final heard on the radio this morning: There were 12,000 mortgages taken out by illegal aliens. They report that the default rate was only about 1% versus 3% for other (unspecified?) borrowers.
Of course the only people with equity to extract are the people not interested in extracting equity (the 31% of homeowners without mortgages probably aren't going to run out and get a mortgage!).
Thanks, CR. That puts the spirally twist on it.
Mass BK filings next?
Will Robert Wagner ever work again?
That grinding sound you hear is the economy coming to a halt. The next noise you hear will be the economy going backward. Hold on to your shit!
crying on the inside |
If I had the time and money I would write a book about this using Iceland as my metaphor.
Re: lawyerliz
Anonymous/Kona? you've got to decide who you are.
Not feeling well today. Hence the numerous postings.
Furthermore, I'm sorry to hear your not feeling well ; ) ®
That wink symbol ^ there belongs to me, ok!
Uncle Billy Vs. Mt. Pelerin,
It must be nice to not have to pay any income tax.
Comrade Yancey Dope Ward, Born writes:
Well, what do we extract equity out of now? I suggest we start extracting it out of Second Life real estate.
No help there. SL real estate is plummeting, and the tier still amounts to usury.
someone here already tried.....
Ross and A'mouse. True warriors.
Lessee...
Social Security insolvent: check.
Home equity evaporating: check.
401k's taking a beating: check.
==> More old guys at Starbucks.
Gee whats now going to fuel consumer spending to keep America from going from recession to a depression ?
Seriously, I keep hearing about shoving liquidity into the system to get it to open up and jam credit through.
Yeah, it's solvency.
Right now, the liquidity treatment is akin to waterboarding the system.
"You will take the liquidity!"
That's about the only liquidity that's going to work is to bring all the bankers into facilities and waterboard them to make them lend again.
Hey UB,
WTF happened with Paulson's boy last night?
Is this a good time for W. to bring up replacing Social Security with stock market accounts again?
Is this our Sebastian?
Sounds contrarian enough.
Economist's View: Should Deregulation be Blamed?
"going to be a banner christmas in the ole bender household... dad's gonna give me a carton of cigarettes and say smoke up johnny"
From Counterpunch:
According to statistician John Williams:
Commentaries
who measures inflation, unemployment, and GDP according to the methodology used prior to the Clinton regimes corruption of these measures, the US unemployment rate is currently at 14.7 per cent and the inflation rate is 13.2 per cent. Consequently, real US GDP growth in the 21st century has been negative.
Roberts: Futile Bailout
If the Fed gives me $1 billion, I promise to spend at least half of it!
Kona: We were just admiring the reflective qualities of his ponderous pate, and the fact that his wife is actually a rocket scientist. There was conjecture about whether or not his experience as an engineer would be helpful or not as we dispatched him to Iceland for a dry run on fixing an economy before we let him loose with our $700 Billions.
Falling MEW is short-term bad news but long-term good news.
Hopefully CR will post the latest homeowners equity estimates soon.
No, Dad, what about you?
F You.
No, Dad, what about you?!
Ok boys and girls, poll time!
We are witnessing:
Nova,
I watch Iceland too. Krona off 41% against euro. Hope they like fish!
WSJ article from this a.m.
Iceland Scrambles for Cash to Save Banks, Economy - WSJ.com
Wells Fargo gets favorable federal court ruling as it battles Citigroup to take over Wachovia
NEW YORK (AP) -- The battle for control of troubled bank Wachovia tilted toward Wells Fargo Sunday as a state appeals court blocked a lower court ruling that had favored rival bidder Citigroup.
I guess I will know when they change the webpage.
IBM cracked 100.
Ok boys and girls, poll time!
Rome. Circa 400 AD
NovaOnlooker: I think they do, but mostly to Carlos Slim.
Comrade, in at least half of those crises the USA imposed restructuring through the IMF. No way the Federal Reserve has the courage to raise rates to reinflate the yield curve
I'm waiting for unemployment to crest over 11%. Then we'll have crossed the Rubicon.
Nah, Rome circa 53 b c or so.
Or, maybe not.
West Virginia, 1947
Ok boys and girls, poll time!
I love Judge Judy!
Bernanke must be thinking: my bullets, my bullets... why did I waste them?
Bernanke's bullets were always imaginary. The markets are just finally waking up to that fact.
All mortgage equity withdrawal is local...
Anyone want to buy a condo?
At once. Fast-forwarded.
Boston circa 1775
blackhat writes:
I'm waiting for unemployment to crest over 11%. Then we'll have crossed the Rubicon.
Some people think we're close already:
The Economics and Politics of Ignorance: 4 Reasons Why Wall Street, Politicians, and the Mainstream Media Don’t Care About the American Middle Class. » Dr. Housing Bubble Blog
CSC:
You talking to me?
Everything (relatively) ok?
BB @ 10:37
Here's your recovery. A little delayed but...
U.S. could recover in spring, economists' group says - MarketWatch
Anyone want to guess the under/over on how long before Yun retires to "spend time with his family"?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27045699/
cramer... 'could lose 20%'
your late jim, there already down 30%
GMAC is out of leasing effective immediately. They were 16% of the US leasing market
crispy& cole | Homepage | 10.06.08 - 11:30 am | #
Leasing automobiles as a substitute for owning one will be looked at as one of the dumbest things people ever did.
Companies can sometimes justify it (especially for 'company cars' that are rarely ever used, have to be kept 'pristine' and never hit mileage limits)... but consumers almost NEVER can justify a lease.
If you don't use a car much (say urban dweller who mostly uses mass transit) then RENT one by the day on the rare occasion you need a car. If you drive more than that - buy one and be done with it.
Leasing was stupid for the consumer and stupid for the manufacturer - one of those rare lose-lose transactions.
PPT press release:
HP-1177: Statement by the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets
"When systemic risk determinations are necessary and appropriate in the future, the FDIC will use its authority and its resources, on an open or closed-bank basis, to protect depositors, guarantee liabilities, facilitate orderly wind downs, mergers, or adopt other stabilizing measures."
What does this mean: "adopt other stabilizing measures"?
Bank holidays, currency controls, supervised access to safety deposit boxes, confiscation? I'm outta here.
homedad: It's all good. I was just jabbering nonsense again.
Just remember: Blackwater are the new Hessians.
Re: Boston circa 1775
But a Constitution of Government once changed from Freedom, can never be restored. Pork once lost is lost forever.
John Adams, letter to Abigail Adams, 1775
Re: "The U.S. economy will recover from the current recession"
But wait, we are not in recession!
lack of understanding and imagination in this financial crisis is amazing. Along with the bail out the Treasury should have created a central clearing agency for swap transactions that would be the counterparty for all swap transactions. Banks would be required to put up collateral and those that were unable to do so would be given the AIG treatment.
What the market needs to start functioning is clarity not bailouts.
"What does this mean: "adopt other stabilizing measures"?"
That means that the Department of Financial Stability will dispatch Kashmiri Special Forces.
LOL CSC......
" I'm stupid because i can't make an elephant lamp?"
"No your a genius cause you cant make a lamp, the world needs brokers as well......"
This sucker is going down.
lol, everyone on CNBC looks like someone shot their dog.
What happened to the bailout being the white horse guys?
dryfly,
No. Leasing was not stupid for the manufacturer. Our glorious tax code made it so they could get accelerated depreciation on that vehicle, collect a monthly payment on it that was greater than the cost of production, and got to sell it on secondary market. They made a lot of money, more than selling it straight to the consumer. But COMPLETELY stupid for the consumer.
Completely. /shudder/
Haloscan is acting weird again.
And, where is Tanta?
Sept 24, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- In its third quarterly report of 2008, the UCLA Anderson Forecast continues to advocate that the national economy is not technically in a recession, noting in particular that the (revised) second quarter 2008 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate was a surprisingly strong 3.3%. The Forecast readily acknowledges all of the current problems facing the economy and, recession or not, asserts that the national economy is "stalled."
Kona,
The USA in 1775 also was an outcast because of sanctioned piracy (actually created one of the first American stock markets by buying/selling shares of a ship) and copyright infringement
You can go back to the same place, but it will no longer be the same. Like visiting your childhood home as an adult
PPT to use substantial force and be forceful:
"The diversity of institutions and markets under stress, and the magnitude and complexity of the adjustment underway, requires that the tools available to policymakers, regulators and supervisors be used in forceful and coordinated ways across regulatory and supervisory agencies in the United States and throughout the world. This will involve moving with substantial force on a number of fronts."
Ah, methinks CR has stumbled onto the real solution:
Now, just how does Paulson and Bernanke make them want to?
You guys must be watching CR on video - there is no way I can keep up with this volume of posts.
Now, just how does Paulson and Bernanke make them want to?
First, they can roll around together naked in whipped cream. Then...
I'd say the Panic of 1819
popeye,
eat your spinach.
UCLA Anderson is a joke these days. Bring back Thornberg or forget ever collecting the $60k I owe you bastards.
I think the bulk of our commentors here live on the coasts, which probably skews their perception.
crying on the inside writes: My SuperSweet16 showing a birthday party for a girl that costs 250k, not including the custom Range Rover gift.
I remember when I turned 16, I did get a car as a present - an old beater which I sold to a classmate 6 months later (after 'improvements') for $150 bucks. Everyone I know (in WI) still has equity in their homes, but they aren't interested in HELOC-ing it away. Also, not many boob jobs around these parts. Some people get LASIK, but they don't take out second mortgages for the procedure.
Clearly, this reduction in MEW is a result of falling home prices, and in turn tightened underwriting criteria (which will presist) - you can think of the resulting negative MEW in the coming years as a measure of net 'forced savings'.
grumpyoldvet writes:
BB @ 10:37
Here's your recovery. A little delayed but...
From the article :
Bailout plan expected to take the edge of the recession, NABE survey shows
Take the 'edge of the recession' ??
What is it now? Recession Lite? and someone should proofread that too.'of=off'.
Or do they literally take the edge of the recession and beat me over the head with it.. sometimes i wonder.
Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossien Nozari said Saturday that it would be "unsuitable" for both producers and consumers for oil to dip below $100 a barrel. He called on fellow OPEC members not to pump too much oil and avoid a drop in prices.
Ooops
"Calculated Risk writes:
Bob Dobbs, we will probably see MEW go negative too ... that has happened before. That just means people are paying down their mortgages faster than other people are extracting equity."
Bad news for the consumer-based economy, for sure. The kind that feeds back on itself. We're just at the beginning of this, it's not really shown itself in the landscape of Main Street. But if you want to see who the first victims may be, look to your local GM dealer.
"Of course the only people with equity to extract are the people not interested in extracting equity (the 31% of homeowners without mortgages probably aren't going to run out and get a mortgage!)."
No, we're all sitting tight and trying to avoid the flying debris from this trainwreck.
The economy is strong.
Stocks are cheap; get in while you can.
It's fun being a permabull, even if it's only for a few hours.
I think many families will be having an imagination Christmas this year. Yay!
Speaking of Liquidity:
Temporary Open Market Operations - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Another reverse repo. today for $25b
They are loosing control quickly. Make your FFR arguments all you want however if this was truly a liquidity issue then why take it out at all.
Pimm Foxx on B'Berg to go at them again at 4:30pm ....
ross and amouse pissing against a cat. 5 hurricane. Hope you guys had tight stops.
There will be opps. however today is not one of those times.
Ciao
MS
higher low ? hmmmmmmmmmm
We are now headed for
(1) Uncontrolled deleveraging
(2) Japan "please don't look behind the curtain, there are no real assets behind it" phantom growth
(3) Mix of 1 + 2
Need a Treasury who has the courage to lead, Paulson just wants to get the hell out of dodge before the gunfight
TED spread still at 3.85:
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
Good news - the bleeding has stopped in Europe! For today.
Pretty much true, it's hard to have any meaningful leadership when you're the lamest lame duck administration in 30 years.
One more higher low, and I'm gonna throw fish bait on the sso.
o more HomeEscaladeLineOfCredits?
es-ca-lade [es-kuh-leyd] -noun, 1. "Rolling Home Equity Line of Credit"
Every time you turn on cable television, you'd see the high life, right there in your face. House Hunters showing a nurse buying a second home in Roatan for 500k. My SuperSweet16 showing a birthday party for a girl that costs 250k, not including the custom Range Rover gift. Bling lifestyle, attitude, everybody is a star, the fabulous life.
God, I hated those people. Watching those idiotic jerks on TV for the last 5 years has been like having an ice pick jammed in your eye over and over again.
Bon voyageeee....
lawyerliz writes:
I think some of the lack of mew withdrawl is due to the fact that some percentage is actually getting (relatively) frugal.
Frugal. . .the new black.
We are all frugal now.
lawyerliz | 10.06.08 - 11:35 am | #
Not everyone - I was at Mall of America, 'The Galleria' in Edina and a huge outlet mall over the weekend - all were packed to the rafters.
The coup de grace for me: my daughter & DIL wanted to eat out a Cheesecake factory near the Galleria on Saturday night - not my choice, bad expensive food in a tacky environment - it was 8PM and the waiting list was till over an hour long.
So we went to a MOA restaurant instead (a place my DIL used to work and knew the staff)... took a half hour to get there and we still had to wait almost an hour to get seated! But they did comp us a bunch of stuff (because we were 'family' and it was late)...
I fully believe we are getting more frugal as a society - not out of desire but as a result of necessity, the reduction in MEW is exhibit one in evidence - but we got a LONG way to go.
Paulson already did what he needed to do....ensure GS has the perception of solvency.
That's all the bailout was for.
Ciao
MS
Comrade Jeremy writes:
TED spread still at 3.85:
It won;t go lower if you keep staring at it.
A watched TED never drops.
CR writes
...Bob Dobbs, we will probably see MEW go negative too ... that has happened before. That just means people are paying down their mortgages faster than other people are extracting equity.
That what I did / am doing - paid off 60% of my LOC, with the balance to be gone (god willing) by year end.
The amount of money I am saving in interest alone is outperforming any investment I hoped to make (and we all know that LOC interest gets backed out in the AMT calc anyway).
Are not extracting home equity and paying down mortage a bad things?
"Ok boys and girls, poll time!
We are witnessing:"
You missed one:
EvilHenry- "You can go back to the same place, but it will no longer be the same."
Conjure offers some strangely appropriate thread music.
YouTube -
"Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
UCLA Anderson is a joke these days. Bring back Thornberg or forget ever collecting the $60k I owe you bastards."
Alum? We don't take to kindly to yer type of folk 'round here.
lol, now CNBC is complaining that all these bailouts aren't forcing banks to actually start lending.
Gee, I wonder who has already said that a million times?
Buy fear.... but watch out for end of day 401k fear... hmmmmmm
Read somewhere plastic surgeons were hurting, business down.
Maybe drs, hospital, and education type will be forced to cut after years and years of inflating 'way more than average.
We're doing a short sale. Allegedly. Sale is for 250k, amount owed to bank is over 500k. Wonder if its a FF loan. Prolly not.
Wachovia Bank is faulted.
Waiting for news
If your collar won't stay up and your GMAT is over 700, it's an auto-reject at Marshall.
Poll time:
This is the financial crisis from approximately 10 years ago, with no "buyer of last resort" to stop the damage.
A bottomless recession.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Wachovia Bank is faulted.
Freudian slip?
Barclays Capital Economist looks like something out of Dawn of the Dead.
Hurray, we're saved:
October 06, 2008
Solar paint on steel could generate renewable energy - Report
It is reported that, in three years, buildings covered in steel sheets could be generating large amounts of solar electricity, thanks to a new photovoltaic paint that is being developed in a commercial partnership between UK university researchers and the steel industry.
As per report, these new solar cells also have the advantage of being able to absorb across the visible spectrum. That makes them more efficient at capturing low radiation light than conventional solar cells, and so well suited to the British climate with its many cloudy days.
Steel Guru : Solar paint on steel could generate renewable energy - Report
How much MEW is driven by available credit ?
If the credit markets are frozen up, I'm not surprised that MEW is falling off.
First it was the HELOCs, then it was CC...
Citi cut off one of my credit cards yesterday. No balance so I don't think it will affect my rating, but they must be hurting to get rid of high quality credit lines.
One Dope Dope
Faulted is another way of saying the NYSE froze their stock so that they could make a mid-market announcement.
That means some kind of deal has been done
No annoucement, but stock market action looks good for Wells, bad for Citi.
FT Alphaville
The crew at Alphaville are becoming real comedians
Comrade Dope Baron Von Helmut:
How about:
1792 France
This is a major fear event... watch for a build out... this could be it - or waaay to early - a break below sso 39.13 is the key for this one - otherwise this could be the build.
Meow Mix: Breakfast of Champions.
dry-
I'll add to your anecdotal observation(s). Was at Disneyland Weds and Friday. Pretty packed for a weekday and people still had bags of crap (bought with credit I'm sure). Went out to dinner and can confirm that wait times were just about the same as you. One thing I did notice was that the build-a-bear workshop (in downtown disney) was a ghost town each time I passed it. This was with thousands of kids right next door.
On another note, Club 33 was a total waste of time. They used to have there own chef but it sure seems like they get the food from the hotels nowadays. It was on someone else's dime so I didn't have the pleasure of paying for food that I could have gotten at any hotel for a 1/10th of the price. My friend said that was the last time he would go. Terminated his membership on the spot.
They seemed to have heard this many times in the last month or so. BTW it's mostly filled with Arabs who don't care about price. It used to be a good restaurant (not great) but when there were no alternatives....good becomes great.
Ciao
MS
Is the horizontal axis of the graph mis-labeled? Why it is showing Q2 of 2009?
Comrate Dope Baron Von Helmut --
it's 100 in the year of our Ford.
Ummm, I've checked apple a number of times today, and lately it has read unchanged, why? Somthing happen to Jobs?
Was that the numbers for Oxnard or Santa Maria?
"Uncle Billy Vs. Mt. Pelerin wrote:
Final heard on the radio this morning: There were 12,000 mortgages taken out by illegal aliens. They report that the default rate was only about 1% versus 3% for other (unspecified?) borrowers"
Citigroup announced they are suing for $60bn
That's one way to make your losses back
Citi suing for $60B? Another stealth Bailout? WTF is going through the roof again.
"EvilHenryPaulson writes:
Citigroup announced they are suing for $60bn"
Suggestion to Citi. let Bawney Fwank handle it. he'll get you 75 billion by the time he's done...lol
"Read somewhere plastic surgeons were hurting, business down."
Surgery may be down, but I expect the trophy wives to keep up their Botox injections until the bitter end.
....next higher high is sso 40.43
This represents some real progress. An economy based on MEW is disturbing -- Cannibalizing one's young.
Now maybe we can move on to correct the next disturbing irrational reality - Perpetual US Government fiscal deficits.
Need a laugh? This is the funniest Colbert I have ever seen. The USA has business syphilis.
I say turn around at the border all the Californicators who will be trying to escape the state. You broke it you bought it!
barely,
amen.
USD is surging hard, especially after the last week
Bush on TV in 1 minute
Apple still unchanged.
Bush on TV in 1 minute
Buy SPY puts quick; he's a downward force!
The HELOCopter has crashed--and right on top of retail.
Is Bush gonna scare us again?
pfannkuchen? Does Tracy Alloway read CR too?
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Pfandbrief pancakes
"Bush on TV in 1 minute", who are we invading this time ?
George Bush... the Fail Whale of the American economic system.
(Twitter reference...)
lawyerliz: AAPL (on finance.yahoo.com): 91.25 and changing (down 6.17 today).
I assume this particular graph can't go below zero? That is, it doesn't include any of the loss of value side of the ledger, just actual home equity credit loans?
Everyone stay calm... the army is here to save the day!
Brigade homeland tours start Oct. 1 - Army News, news from Iraq, - Army Times
Everyone have a great day, but try to get some work done. This country needs it.
Anyone have a stream of the chimp?
Re: Solar paint on steel could generate renewable energy
Maybe Paulson could be painted, like the girl in Goldfinger?
YouTube - GOLDFINGER 'Into Miami' - John Barry (HQ)
Bush talked to a few restaurant and car dealership owners. He says they are why he supported the rescue package.
He is informing the implied morons on Wall St that it will take time for the program to start up -- who does this putz think he is
Bush says a lot of Texans are not pleased about paying Wall st debts but not homeowner's mortgages. Says if he didn't then people would be worse off.
Said solve it about 20 times.
Thank you for your time, glad to be in Texas, miss friends in Texas
Spent half the time on small talk and walked out on questions
"I'm glad to be back home in Texas."
The good news is that Ben is warming up the helicopters now.
The bad news is that they will be under the control of Jimmy Carter.
Time to get our camping gear ready.
"Guiseppe de Egypto writes:
I say turn around at the border all the Californicators who will be trying to escape the state. You broke it you bought it!"
Most of the people fleeing will be people who came here in the last ten years. You mean, you won't take them back?
Seriously,of the few people I knew who left in '93, most (not all) were those who'd come here for the opportunity some years ago. And when it vanished, so did they.
"Read somewhere plastic surgeons were hurting, business down."
In CA, many surgeons are doing a single boob for $250. (The other one for $9,750)
Last few times he's spoken it's been on tape.
Jon Stewart nailed it last week when he said that Bush is just like a pundit making comments rather than a leader.
You may resume the drop now.
Ciao
MS
I didn't realize that Paraguay was a town in Texas.
Well, we didn't invade anybody anyway.
Someone thought this would be calming, how?
Chimp may not enjoy his retirement in Texas. Texans are gonna want to stick a pitchfork in him.
Maybe he'll move back to Maine where he's from.
Bush quotes "why,why,why,why bail out Wall St." no kidding. 4 whys
"this is why people sent me to Washington. I see a problem, I put together a team to solve the problem"
Christmas shopping will save the economy....NOT!!
Re: The Federal Reserve also took fresh steps to help ease seized-up credit markets. The central bank said Monday it will begin paying interest on commercial banks' reserves and will expand its loan program to squeezed banks.
See Also: Resolution Funding Corporation ("REFCORP") obligations are backed, as to principal payments, by zero coupon U.S. Treasury bonds and, as to interest payments, ultimately by the U.S. Treasury.
Good news, air is still free and water is still relatively cheap.
Can't say the same for basic grains, gold, or bullets ... however.
"this is why people sent me to Washington. I see a problem, I put together a team to solve the problem"
Anonymous
He actually said that????
"this is why people sent me to Washington. I see a problem, I put together a team to solve the problem"
He didn't see squat! What a dope!
dryfly,
People will cut back on toys but will increase their eating. Maybe it is a natural response. The Cut Flower Commission did a study and found that sales of flowers rose during the depression and prices were higher then than they are today in adjusted terms. Last year the sales of fresh fruits and vegetables were up 4-5%. Empty nesters and families with older children increased demand the most. As Americans age their consumption goes up and many immigrants already are used to a diet heavy with fruits and vegetables.
He actually said that????
Yes he did.
EMB that was awesome!
that's why I'm in Texas right now.....
Ciao
MS
Goodbye to the America way of life
granite countertop,
teak lawn furniture,
SUV and viking grills
Goodbye to all that
"Had we not done anything, the people behind me would have been worse off"
Yeah.. toast as opposed to burnt toast.
"I say turn around at the border all the Californicators who will be trying to escape the state. You broke it you bought it!"
Go ahead--play the California card, but most people here are recent transplants, so you get your people back. You can have them...the asshats who came to make a quick buck ruined my state.
Stupid me, I typed the Apple symbol in wrong.
I live in Upstate NY and we lost large gouts of young people to North Carolina in particular. So it's interesting to read that Charlotte is now realizing that oops, mebbe they shouldn't have tied their economy so much to financials.
They'll be coming back in dribs and drabs... those North Carolina expatriates eager to sleep in the basement and have Grandma babysit the chilluns.
"Had we not done anything, the people behind me would have been worse off"
Does he mean his base? The "haves and have mores?"
SHOCKING!!! Another GS crony tapped to make millions.
"To that end, the administration was expected to announce shortly that it had tapped a 35-year-old former Goldman Sachs executive, Neel Kashkari, to head the government's rescue effort on an interim basis, according to an official who asked not to be named".
Oh those rascals........
Too many things don't fit the published line on the market.... this is too easily billed as "the washout" event.... this is not the right time for the darkest hour... hold ammo, but load
Nah, we'll still have granite counter tops. They'll just cost $120 installed - cash.
"The Cut Flower Commission did a study and found that sales of flowers rose during the depression and prices were higher then than they are today in adjusted terms."
This is true. My dad was a floral wholesaler for 30+ years including during the 1970s. Those were some of the most brisk sales years.
Goodbye to the America way of life
granite countertop,
teak lawn furniture,
SUV and viking grills
Goodbye to all that
YAY
YAY
YAY
YAY
and did I mention YAY?
As an alternative to Treasury zeros, consider zero-coupon Refcorp issues, which are issued to finance the federal S&L bailout and yield about three- tenths of a percentage point more (see Wall Street on page 53).
9 Great Savings Moves The 1990s are fast shaping up as the Decade of the Saver. Even though short-term yields are now falling, these simple strategies can still boost returns on your savings to as much as 9%. - September 1, 1990
CEO of Coldwell Banker said seeing the President on TV will instill confidence in the American people and help the real estate market
Catastrophic breaking news:
I have just run out of cannabis. Need bailout badly. No new supply until 4:30PM Pacific.
Ok, you people keep an eye on things. I have to go save the economy.
I can understand more people buying food (comfort), but flower? Why?
Thousand point rally around the corner -- Blonde lunch hour lady from CNBC
CEO of Coldwell Banker said seeing the President on TV will instill confidence in the American people and help the real estate market
Oh wow. The rank smell of desperation. Mindless idiot babbling now.
Leasing was stupid for the consumer and stupid for the manufacturer - one of those rare lose-lose transactions.
dryfly | 10.06.08 - 12:02 pm | #
No dryfly, Leasing is good.
GM must lease vehicles
Everyone must lease
Everyone must drive car less than 3 years old.
Everyone must do their part to keep 3-4 year old moderate mileage cars cheap.
If this stops, I may someday need to spend more than $10,000 for a perfectly fine vehicle having an easy 100,000+ low cost miles left on it.
I would be sad.
The sheeple must lease new vehicles to affirm their importance. Go sheeple.
I'm thinking Spring 2009 will be a fine time to replace the 1999 family buggy.
Dryfly, always enjoy your posts. Thanks for the insights
Told ya dopes they would be coming back for more.
From CNN.
"Despite widespread unease over the use of taxpayer money to salve Wall Streets wounds, it also seems virtually certain that lawmakers will in coming months confront anew demands for even greater government activism. Critics say the new federal legislation just wont do enough to resolve the banks chief problem: a crippling shortage of capital.
Already, prominent economists across the political spectrum are floating proposals that envision mammoth government spending beyond the $700 billion bailout. Among them: shuttering insolvent banks and providing taxpayer cash to those that can be saved; a temporary unlimited government guarantee of all bank deposits; or even direct financial aid to individual homeowners to ward off foreclosure.
This act alone is not really going to resolve anything. Eventually, the government is going to have to do more, says George Magnus, senior economic adviser to UBS in London."
Anonymous writes:
CEO of Coldwell Banker said seeing the President on TV will instill confidence in the American people and help the real estate market
The funniest thing I've read all day.
Drink that Kool-Aid!!!
Maybe Yun jumps today?
Anonymous | 10.06.08 - 11:28 am | #
The taller the building the better, the Sears tower would do if he doesnt want to travel abroad.
"Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
Catastrophic breaking news:
I have just run out of cannabis. Need bailout badly. No new supply until 4:30PM Pacific."
While you're waiting, just drink the bongwater, there's plenty of that around.
So with MEW in the toilet, how long will it take before credit card companies crash/collapse?
Capital One has been giving credit to anyone with a pulse. Their default rates have been artificially lowered by MEW, and a ponzi scheme of more cards and ever-expanding credit. I suspect this business model will implode in a spectacular way.
But when?
Full disclosure: Massively short COF
Congress Hearing on LEH BK has just turned partisan... donkeys blaming the elephants and vice versa on FNM and FRE.
There really is no hope. Arghhhhhhhhh!
McCain claims credit for bailout while ripping Obama for inaction; an hour later, bailout fails
An aggressive Sen. John McCain used an Ohio rally on Monday to rip into Sen. Barack Obama while taking credit for helping engineer a $700 billion Wall Street bailout agreement, which he said proves he can get things done in Washington.
But an hour after McCain spoke at a small university here attacking Obama for doing too little to assist in reaching the unprecedented rescue plan, the measure failed to clear the U.S. House.
Oh wow. The rank smell of desperation. Mindless idiot babbling now.
anonymous
From an American classic: "Desperation is a stinky cologne."
I can understand more people buying food (comfort), but flower? Why?
JoGa
Cheer and joy often come in small packages when times are tough. You can be in mean circumstances but a small vase of daffodils can make you smile everytime you pass them.
If I was the restaurant owner I would have charged him $700billion for the breakfast taco.
Re: Ok, you people keep an eye on things. I have to go save the economy.
Your gonna need a porta-potty today UB (like CR)
ew post
CEO of Coldwell Banker said seeing the President on TV will instill confidence in the American people and help the real estate market
I do like chimps but only when they're cheery and smart.
Bailout failure 'will cause US crash
The US stock market could suffer a devastating crash with shares losing a third of their value this week if Hank Paulsons financial bailout plan fails, US Treasury officials have warned.
Bailout failure 'will cause US crash'
- Telegraph
The financial system could face a meltdown of 1929 proportions unless US politicians succeed in their efforts for a $700bn rescue scheme, experts added.
Comrade Barron [not a dope] Von Helmut,
I don't buy it... a market capitulation this soon after the infamous bailout is too embarrassing to the ptb - this won't stand.
If the shorts don't hurry up and cover soon, it may go below 700 again.
..OH that's right...
Thank you SEC, genooose at work.
Whereismyretirement writes: Cheer and joy often come in small packages when times are tough. You can be in mean circumstances but a small vase of daffodils can make you smile everytime you pass them.
I'll buy some for my wife on my way home tonight .....
....after I get my car repaired (I'm expecting I will be approached to consider replacing my 120,000 mile Camry - my over under is 5 minutes).
CSC,
Don't forget the resin.
Must See Accountants
YouTube - Accountants
If Florida is the "waiting room for heaven", wouldn't Texas be the waiting room for hell?
Wow so the Bailout, err Rescue Act turned out to be bullshit?
Even I didn't expect failure this soon!
I hear an emergency rate cut rumor...just what Bucky needs.
Apoptygma Berzerk Starsign Lyrics:
Like a bolt from the blue, descending from the sky
My brain collapses in the dead of night
Too much for my psyche, another crack-up
If you're awake, join me
All the things you see, the same as what I see
We listen to the sound of nervous breakdown
A death that blends with a will to live
One of the things that freaks me out
I'm waiting for a sign, have to leave this place behind
Where no one knows my name
Then later we'll calm down, we'll both break down and cry
(And say) our last goodbye.
I'll break the chains, I'm out of line
I'm living on my nerve, last days of ninety-nine
Nightmare, conspiracy, depression and lunacy
I need to feel, walled up inside
Locked up, messed up, maybe there is no tomorrow
All this thinking does me no good
I'll miss you my love, but it's about time
That this world goes up in flames."
Now carry on, you soon to be net worthless maggots
re: Comrade Dope Baron Von Helmut
A link in one of these threads suggested the world in 1873.
Thanks for the link, aleister perdurabo.
One bright note in the day.
"Whereismyretirement wrote: Cheer and joy often come in small packages when times are tough. You can be in mean circumstances but a small vase of daffodils can make you smile everytime you pass them."
I never thought of eating them, but I'd do anything for a smile!
Refcorp are not full faith and credit of the US (as if that means anything these days)
Friends:
During trying times, flowers are a cheap way to bring a smile to your family.
A flower can also lead to enlightenment. Read about the Flower Sermon by the Buddha at Mount Grdhakuta.
But in these difficult times, flowers are an expenditure that many cannot afford. Don't worry, friends, CSC has some advice.
I am known as someone who regularly gives large bouquets of flowers. But my secret is that I never buy them.
Go to a local cemetery and sit by a grave. Look around. You will see people carrying large bouquets to place on the grave of a loved one. Once they leave, the flowers have served their purpose, and I recycle them.
I always find fresh, expensive bunches and never pay one red cent.
More money saving ideas to follow.
CNBC Live Video: Watch the Latest Market Reporting and Analysis - CNBC.com
Fuld is o
Opium poppies are flowers.
whereismyretirement:
You're making me cry.
Now, to the cemetary.
richard fuld is on now. cspa
ew post up
"I do like chimps but only when they're cheery and smart."
A real chimpanzee story from a National Zoo employee who knew a lot about wild animals:
A guy used to keep an adult male chimp in his house as a pet. This was not wise, because male adult chimpanzee can be violent, territorial, and they are immensely strong.
The owner and chimpanzee would sit on the front porch after breakfast smoking their cigarettes. One day a man walked by on the road, and the chimpanzee put down his cigarette, went up to the man on the road, seized him, and literally tore him limb from limb (they are that strong).
This is not a fable.
If Florida is the "waiting room for heaven", wouldn't Texas be the waiting room for hell?
Either hell or Paraguay.
Coldwell Banker is a big part of the problem that we are in. I wonder how many sub-prime mortgages they helped to push through? Realtors in general are slime. I love the "ITIN Toolkit" published on the Realtor website. Homes for illegals made easy.
@Chimp may not enjoy his retirement in Texas. Texans are gonna want to stick a pitchfork in him.
Maybe he'll move back to Maine where he's from.
Amen.
No more free money. Let's agree on one thing, the banks didn't have to lend the money in the first place.
DK writes:
No more free money. Let's agree on one thing, the banks didn't have to lend the money in the first place.
Oh, but they did. CRA and ACORN made sure of that with the threat to the policians and the banks: give it or we'll tell all of your customers / voters are anti-joe six pack.
It was absolutely irrelevant that they could not afford their mortage payments (much less their property taxes and the upkeep).
This sucker went down!
What happened to all the martial arts studios closing?
FYI: People are running for safety,'' said Ram Bhagavatula, a portfolio manager at Combinatorics Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that has $45 million under management.There's huge premium for safety bets: the dollar and the yen. A global recession is coming.'
CSC:
Thanks for the frugal flower advice. Will save a penny or so for my pocket while adding years to my life because of the laughter.
The CSPAN hearings, some congressmen actually have intelligent questions. Kucinich is great, Elijah Cummings was good too. Now, why can't they understand the TARP crap too? Thank God I pushed the short button on the bar this morning.
CR,
That chart looks exactly like the DOW chart from 2004-2008.
Exactly.
National City hasn't cut me off, in fact they keep asking me to take more out....not that I have any interest in doing that when I may not have a job by the end of the year
MS writes:
Does anyone still have one to use???
regardless of how much equity you may have... I'm under the impression that most of them got shut off.
Anyone??
can i haz stimulus, plz
Wow. Dow down 650 points. Whopee. Where are the shorts to buoy up the market?
CSC you're a GRAVE robber. That is a GRAVE sin.
Holy Mother of Mary:
Alcoa dropped 7.7 percent to $17.75. UBS cut its price target by 46 percent to $25.
KKR Financial Holdings LLC (KFN:US) lost 27 percent to $4.13 and slipped earlier to $3.59, the lowest intraday price since June 2005. The debt-investment affiliate of buyout firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. was downgraded to neutral'' fromoverweight'' by JPMorgan Chase & Co. on expectations a recession may spur more defaults and reduce the value of its investments.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT:US) slid 5.3 percent to $56.59 and earlier fell to $56.23 for the biggest intraday loss in two months. The world's largest retailer was cut to neutral'' frombuy'' at UBS, which said the company is ``unlikely to be immune'' from a worsening economy and increasing competition
Stocks On The Move - Bloomberg.com
Well, in the USA individual consumption makes 67% of the GDP. Disposable income decreases by 8%.
How come GDP is not down by 5%? Where is the extra money coming from? Are salaries increasing? Are there other, still available sources of debt?
Matti, drug use and prostitution must be increasing.
I remember when I turned 16, I did get a car as a present - an old beater which I sold to a classmate 6 months later (after 'improvements') for $150 bucks. Everyone I know (in WI) still has equity in their homes, but they aren't interested in HELOC-ing it away. --Shnaps
I'm from WI too, and I don't understand the affluent lifestyles of the coasts. The crazy lifestyles explain why they're so panicked by every hiccup in the economy. I just don't get why they chose to live like that. It seems like an unhappy existance.
..an unhappy existence, rather.