Businesses are dumping office space at the fastest pace since the months after the Sept. 11 attacks, increasing the financial stress on commercial-real-estate owners and their lenders, many of them already ailing financial institutions.
Popeye writes:
Comrade Barron [not a dope] Von Helmut,
I don't buy it... a market capitulation this soon after the infamous bailout is too embarrassing to the ptb - this won't stand.
Popeye | 10.06.08 - 12:40 pm |
I live outside of Syracuse and the pace of building here has been glacial for the past ten years. Everything gets approved and financed in super slo-mo. Well finally in my neighborhood they just built the prettiest little office complex (and I mean "little"). So cute, so neat, very attractive place to do business. Sad that it probably isn't going to be occupied any time soon. Then again, I'm really not quite sure we're going to notice much of a dramatic slowdown... just "slow as usual"... since the rest of the country is now drawing down to OUR usual level...
There is new two story strip mall near my daughter's house. Completed in June, retail space on the first floor, office space on the second. One tenant so far. Yikes
Whats the word on the Economy in AZ? I can't imagine it's much behind CA, it most of in entirely built on RE. I don't think it would bode well for McCain if the state comes out looking for a federal loan.
Meanwhile, out here in the IE, they're still building commercial/strip/office condos like it's 2003. I drove along the 15 yesterday to the 91 and it was amazing how the things are mushrooming.
Oh, and Syracuse has just started building its DestiNY USA complex, which was supposed to rival the Mall of America but was wrapped up in tax and development hell for almost 10 years. LOL... I think if they just stay on the typical pace, they should have it completed by the time the Depression is over.
Sure I bet he takes responsibility for it. If he is such a "passionate" employee then why does he needs to read from a piece of paper.
"I feel horrible"
I bet you do.....how about all those bonus' you got out the door before the monday filing?? or that huge transfer of cash from london AFTER the filing.
Wachovia [WB 5.60 -0.61 (-9.82%) \t ] shares were halted around noon amid news that Citigroup [C 16.36 -1.99 (-10.84%) \t ] was filing a complaint, citing breach of contract, after Wachovia snubbed its bid in favor of a deal with Wells Fargo. Citi is apparently seeking $60 billion in damages.
In the burbs of DC, still a lot of development going on. We noticed this weekend 5 new strip malls that are mostly finished / are being developed on a 2 mile stretch of road in Manassas.
Most of the store fronts are empty.
and to add insult to injury, there was a local grocery in one of the older strip malls - believe it went out of business about 3/4 years ago - still vacant!
From out my window in Bellevue, Washington I can still see 11 cranes. And the idiots are still building. Mostly condos, with asking prices between 750k and 1M. At this point I'm fairly certain that the developers know they're toast, but as long as they keep building they can delay the inevitable. This is going to be a disaster!
I don't remember if it was rich or Rob Dawg, but one of the heavies here explained why a bank holiday cannot happen. Perhaps a market holiday, but bank holidays are no longer as simple as they were in the past.
Does anyone really expect a bank holiday going forward?
Fuld cont'd
Short sellers and bloggers spread rumors to drive down the price. The low share price made it hard for their money-making-super-solvent business to raise the money-that-they-didn't-need
Other firms failed, AIG AIG AIG, their fault for causing fear that should not have applied to Lehma
Gavshire Hathaway - Those condos are a disaster waiting to happen....with MSFT no longer hiring, Boeing strike and Real Estate values going down it will be ugly
The best way to control obscene income packages it to tax the hell out of them. If you have to give up 90% of what you make, that would stop the preposterous salaries very rapidly.
[Trading Stats writes:
across the board , i'm selling puts otm to open]
Why? Since the short ban markets have sold off hard at the close because there's no rush to cover to collect for the day. There's been an imbalance with settle way past 4P close.
Is there even one woman in DC who isn't full of Botox? They all have rubber faces and only their mouths move when they speak. I never see women like this in real life.
I was driving my daughter to school this morning, and I realized I do not want to live in the 3rd world. Nor do I want my family to. I do not want to carry concealed even though I can. I sure do not want to live in the modern equivalent of Dodge City 1870.
Unfortunately what I want does not mean anything. What will be playing in towns all over America is the new reality. When I think about it I find myself getting very angry. I do not like being angry.
Yesterday at the drug store the old lady in front of me did not have enough money to pay for her eye medicine. Why? The Dr. had changed the RX from drops to an oil of some sort. She did not know until she went to pick it up. The change apparently made it go up by $100
Yesterday I saw an old guy pushing a plastic dumpsteron wheels at Pennies Dept store. He was coming out of the employee area briefly, crossing the aisle in front of me to go to the backroom. He was having trouble pushing it. It mad me very sad.
What I see is a major reality adjustment coming and it is not going to be pretty.
Remarks by Sheila C. Bair, Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on The Future of Mortgage Finance at the 2008 Annual Meeting National Association for Business Economics; Washington, D.C.
October 6, 2008
i'm collecting pretty decent premium in big stocks at levels that are another 10-15% down from here, for OCT expiration...
i'm willing to own them down there...for a trade.
What I see is a major reality adjustment coming and it is not going to be pretty.
nova
It makes me angry too. The people who created these problems don't see the older woman in the drug store, or the senior pushing that cart. That is not in their reality. Have to hope karma IS a bitch.
It's really been a psychic drain having to watch all this conspicuous consumption on TV and around you. To know that there's no way your neighbors could have really afforded that Mexican vacation or the new McMansion in the exurbs. This nagging feeling you weren't keeping up with the Joneses... well, it turns out there was never any real prosperity to keep up with anyway.
.... nope.... this is "THE WASHOUT" - otherwise Bernanke and Paulson resign ... this market is a buy - - - I'm just going to let somebody else start it; cuz I'm polite.
It makes me angry too. The people who created these problems don't see the older woman in the drug store, or the senior pushing that cart. That is not in their reality. Have to hope karma IS a bitch.
Whereismyretirement | 10.06.08 - 1:11 pm | #
Oh they see them, it makes them feel really good to see homeless people, makes them feel superior. Makes them feel good to see people cry and starve and eat food from dumpsters.
By some measures, many European banks look more vulnerable than their American counterparts doand that is saying quite something, given the past weeks forced sale of Washington Mutual, Americas biggest thrift, and Wachovia, its fourth-biggest commercial bank. In America, outside Wall Street, the banks have lent 96 cents for each $1 of deposits. Continental European banks have lent roughly 1.40 for each 1 of deposits. They have to borrow the rest from money-market investors, who are not especially confident just now. Some Europeans, including the British, Irish and Spanish banks, have housing busts of their own. And they must contend with the toxic American securities they bought by the billion, as well as their own slowing economies.
Kona writes:
Citi is apparently seeking $60 billion in damages.
Recapitalization through litigation. Brilliant! That's gold, baby!
Citi should start suing everyone. Send empployees out to trip on sidewalks, then sue. Bonuses tied to amounts collected, lawyers paid on contingency. 100% profit. Business schools will be writing glowing case studies about it in 10 years.
From the article: Erica J. Sandberg, a San Francisco-based financial somethinerother, says This is a great time to talk about what very poor countries are like and that we are nowhere near that...no matter what happens, our standard of living is really is [sic] a dream.
The movements in the FX market are incredible. One friend just read me something which he has received from an fx trader which said that the only things that anyone desires to own are the US dollar,the Japanese Yen, gold, bottled water and bullets!!!
Loan to deposit ratio is 60-70% in Canada's big 5.
HSBC has a big margin there too.
Santander should have a lot of unloaned deposits from its South American acquisitions
Japanese banks have deposits to spare too, not sure if their post office lends it out to the market in some way, that is where a mountain of deposits are
When her husband lost his job as a mortgage underwriter at failed IndyMac Bank this July, one of the hardest moments for Jill Hofknecht was telling her 5-year-old daughter she couldn't have a pet hamster.
All the accoutrements that the little rodent required a cage, water bottle, food bowl, toys and food would have strapped the family's tight budget.
GMAFB. My dad lost his job during Reagan's "Morning in America" and we had plenty of money for a guinea pig. Who are they trying to shit? Maybe Mommy needs to stop buying stuff from QVC.
anonymous writes:
When her husband lost his job as a mortgage underwriter at failed IndyMac Bank this July, one of the hardest moments for Jill Hofknecht was telling her 5-year-old daughter she couldn't have a pet hamster.
Obviously, we need socialized pet care. Vote Obama! For the children!
PS, re little Sweetie and her hamster... what's Mommy going to tell her next, that she has to go out on the street and sell matches to support Mommy's Pottery Barn habit?
Where did all these executives put the massive amount of money they took? If it was overseas can we use the military to reclaim it? That would be a use of the military that I could endorse.
I got an email from a coin an militaria dealer. He sends his catalog and occasional notes.
This time he wrote about how he could not set prices anymore. Silver and gold are being hoarded. India has stopped buying. Spot price has no relation to what the real price is. Because there is no product out there.
The hoarding is because, according to him, everyone is expecting the price to skyrocket.
"In America, outside Wall Street, the banks have lent 96 cents for each $1 of deposits"
That is like saying:
"I cannot seem to get this skype thing working, too slow connection. Although, my kid upstairs is sharing some files over the internet, talked something about SUPERNODE and ten TERABYTES of "stuff"."
Those banks outside Wall Street are fucked up anyway because WS geniuses did it for them already and without even asking for permission.
Some of Congress was briefed that Martial Law could be imposed if the Bailout didn't pass?!
How can we impose Martial Law with 300 million gun wielding Americans when we're already struggling with Iraq and Afghanistan? Or when we couldn't even manage to keep order in the aftermath of a hurricane in a single city?
If it really came down to serious civil unrest, I wonder if we could even manage to pull off martial law in a one uncooperative state.
Re: Kashkari was one of three Treasury staffersincluding general counsel Robert Hoyt and head of legislative affairs Kevin Fromerwho stayed up until 4 a.m. last Sunday putting together the $700 billion bailout bill that was shot down by House Republicans the next day."
Is there even one woman in DC who isn't full of Botox?
Botox is the wonder drug that solves all, including probably a deficient brain. Sharon Stone was reported recently to have wanted to give her son's feet injections of botox because they smelled.
re children doing without, there is a substantial subset of both genx and gen y who have already experienced that and have those frugal reflexes. Almost anyone whose parents divorced has lived in poverty or close to it. Also, downsizing has been going on for more than 20 years. Booms are not the only recent history.
While it's gotta be hard to explain to little sweetheart why she can't have her pet hamster, Dad might have experience in explaining difficult subjects, such as...
...exactly what he used to do all day long as an underwriter for IndyMac.
Seriously - "IndyMac underwriter" - isn't that some sort of oxymoron?
I grew up in Reagan era Rust Belt hell and I have spent the last decade wondering what planet I was transported to, watching a lot of people my age living like jerks and maxing out their credit cards. Not everyone has lived that way.
Re: Kashkari didnt take a conventional route into banking. He started out as an aerospace engineer at TRW, developing technology for NASA projects like the James Webb Space Telescope, the replacement to Hubble, which is scheduled to launch in 2013.
Ok that does piss me off, this is just like Warsh getting into The Fed, i.e, you have highly in-experienced retards coming into positions of nepotism and they, like Brown in FEMA during Katrina, are fucking up America and have turned us into a third-rate third-world country!
What I get from that is he didn't finish the job he started and let God strike me down today, but this fucker will not have a clue as to how to waste $700 Billion, which is going in a black hole anyway -- Martha Stewart knows more about wall street finance than this piece of crap!
It makes me angry too. The people who created these problems don't see the older woman in the drug store, or the senior pushing that cart. That is not in their reality. Have to hope karma IS a bitch.
Whereismyretirement
This is one reason why I choose to believe in God even thought evidence is marginal. Comeuppance.
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Oh, I'll pay their bill all right. However this time I'm going to insist they get down on their knees and beg for the privilege of licking my shoe. Political apathy of the working class in this country is just about ready to end.
I was once a MEW whore circa 2004, but quickly understood that not to be in our long term interest (my depression era/1940's parents always told me to be very wary of debt) so sold the house paid off all mortgages and debts and went back to renting.
I'll admit I used my MEW......but not irresponsibly. It was shut off in March.....re-activated a month later and I promptly drained it and shorted financial stocks.
Call me whore all you want.....all of my home improvements are paid off, I owe nothing on three credit cards and have one auto loan along with a home loan that is still over 100k in the black.
The government today announced that it's changing our emblem from an eagle to a condom because it accurately reflects the governments political stance.
A condom allows for inflation, halts production, destroys the next generatio, protects a bunch of dicks and gives you a sense of security while your actually being screwed..
So does anybody think that this might be a good time to buy in into the markets?
Before Sept I thought the low for the DOW would be 10K in this crisis. But it seems to have occurred rather too quickly.
I mean we still have the majority of the "Alt-A" resets yet to start...
opinions?
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Citi should start suing everyone. Send empployees out to trip on sidewalks, then sue. Bonuses tied to amounts collected, lawyers paid on contingency. 100% profit. Business schools will be writing glowing case studies about it in 10 years.
And then they should sue the lawyers for their fees stating inadequate represenation arguing that they should have gotten more. Brillian!
Sheldon Adelson -- MEGA D--K -- on CNBC right now. Advocating bans of short selling and mark to market (he owns Las Vegas Sands, got Macau concession for getting Bush to deliver IOC votes to give China Beijing 2008, could do that because he owns over half of the Republican party members. He has been pressuring to start a war with Iran because he's a real end of the world Israel warmonger, he really gets off on some sick stuff
Sorry I just need to share my opinion of that turd
MS - I DO like DF. I think he was a bit old-style and really cared about Lehman, not just the $$
I have a problem with trying to make him the scapegoat, while s*** like Paulson get to play hero, simply because they contribute big-time to corrupt politicians
crispy& cole writes:
Rob - CRE is a disaster and will be twice as big a problem as RRE
Could you see that coming from high atop the Crisp Tower in the CSUBakersfield hospitality penthouse?
We are so frakin' over retailed there is nothing to model. None of my indicators go to "11." It's like trying to predict the debris field with only the last reported position before falling off the radar.
Sebastian Update! I captured what I believe was Sebastian's last post where he shared some HOT investing-sebastian-style tips, a couple months ago. He LOVES small caps! I don't think Brian Westbury could lose as much for his rapidly shrinking client base.
Arizona still in recession, no sign of a bottom, Signs for CRE are blooming like flowers in the desert.
40-50% of house sales are short sale/REO, inventory is dropping because listing get pulled on no bid action. Light rail construction boom is winding down and no imminent boost expected.
Google is bailing out of Phoenix, Freescale is selling/killing a division, Countrywide evaporated, tax receipts are down.
The Five Year Plan is proving most efficient in losing our comrades Ameros.
Do gold ETFs become riskier if the actual material is being hoarded and "unavailable at any price"? What are the implications?
My gut feeling is that when it comes down to it an ETF is not fundamentally different from any other paper currency or contract.
It is a promise that can be broken, and the while reason holding physical gold is attractive is because keeping it is not dependent on somebody else keeping their word.
The ETF removes that feature.
(BTW, I'm not long gold, but who knows I may end up regretting that.)
David writes:
vote them all out.....regardless of party. Time for a revolution and we the people can do it by voting against ALL incumbents.
David | 10.06.08 - 1:55 pm | #
NO--vote out the party that has had total control the last 8 years and appointed complicit idiots to high places. Filibuster rules + supreme leader+ supreme court made this mess--don't ever vote for a neo-con. If you can find a moderate, non lockstep Republican, go for it.
crispy& cole writes:
"Could you see that coming from high atop the Crisp Tower in the CSUBakersfield hospitality penthouse? "
LMFAO!!!
Thankyou, thank you. I'll be here through the "recession." Try the hamster. Really, tastes like veal. Are they Kosher? Depends on how you cook 'em. Take my house... please!
I was at the mall this past week, and here is what I saw:
Very few actual shoppers in any store; most small stores literally had no one in them except the employees
Increasing number of stores going out of business as well as "vanished stores" that were there one month and gone the next with little fanfare.
The only busy store was Boscov's which is going to shut its doors within a week.
Still lots of economic deadwood that needs to die since we still have stores devoted to: surfer clothing, baseball caps (and nothing else), a massage parlor (in a mall?!), not one, but 2 nearly identical stores that sell nothing but cheap, tasteless, stereotypical "asian stuff," etc. We haven't hit bottom yet!
The VIX volatility index had been boosted over 56 taking out its highest levels in its 18-yr existence (Bloomberg) indicating the escalating cost of options as well as a measure of fear and expected protracted volatility.
briwerk wrote:
Diogenes: Ebay owns craigslist! Well I'll be damned...competing against yourself. What will they think if next. No more scotch for me today!
Wanna bet how low the S&P 500 goes? I say below 900, into the low 800s. I don't see it breaking below 800. Other opinions?
Do you think the current decline will be less than dotcom? That was also a collapsing debt event, but quite mild overall, affecting mostly vaporware companies with few employees. In that event s&p500 declined 50% while the center of the storm, the nasdaq, lost 78%... I expect the s&p to go down at least 60%, R2000 75%, to 600 and 200. Widespread bankruptcies and unemployment, very tough times.
A perfectly new, 6-floor office building a half-mile from where I live... completely empty and has been so since it was finished. Doomed...
A small, falling apart antique store 1.5 miles away that was turned into a 2-floor office building... that is completely empty and also doomed. And they had to cut down a half-dozen tall, old oak trees for this mistake to happen.
And this is just the commercial real estate failures - let's not get into housing!
Calling bottoms (farther up the thread)is just too idiotic at this point. Where are these sector's going to achieve yield?
Look at the DJIA chart from '06-'07....
It's not done by a long shot. Just may take longer than it did when it was pushed up. How many times did we awake to monday morning news that some hedge fund was over-paying for some asset? Too many times to count.
It's still got plenty of air to let out. But it won't be a 'natural correction'....in a normal correction things like leverage and failing business models are not much of a factor.
Coincidence that the two bluest of the blue Dem states (CA and MA) are first in line at thr trough for a handout? Just saying. I have an open letter to vote out all incumbents this November.
Yes, it's all F and F's fault, who knew Fannie and Freddie could take down the entire World Financial System all by themselves...Gotta love wingnuts..
Comrade Kristina
Hahaha. Yea lets blame 10 CEO's for a World Financial crisis. That makes a lot more sense.
JJL, not really a coincidence -- they were the most exposed to a housing boom/bust -- however Florida beat them when their state MM fund imploded, and Alabama when Jefferson County realized they owed $3b
silver is not available, period. no us, south african glod coinage, there are austrian. but they can barely stamp them out fast enough, even having the mint open weekends.
Do you think the MSM will ever admit that they once again sat cheerleading during the bubble, just as they did for the Iraq war, and that the blogs were right?
Years ago, Larry Williams used to look for a situation he called the Jaws of Death noting that when bond prices were weakening but stock prices were strengthening, the two differing trends opened a set of jaws that tended to snap shut, usually due to abrupt weakness in stocks. On that note, Bill Hester sent a chart over the weekend noting I thought this was an interesting graph. The blue line is the 5-Yr Swap Spread, and the red line is the VIX. Credit investors are getting very nervous while equity investors are mostly whistling Dixie. It looks like a variation on the jaws of death that you've mentioned to me before . Nothing like a good picture to complete the story (thanks Bill)
MS - lemme guess, Barry "jumped the shark" the day he banned you from posting in the comments on his blog.....I can hardly wait for CR to jump the shark.
He's been too busy on CNBC and other media outlets to have time for this stuff.
When he did make a long call he never backed it up with anything other than "go long because".
It seems like twice he nailed a short term bottom, at least when I was paying attention.
Personally I'm finally getting to the point where I don't have a good feel for what's going to happen next, so I'm scaling back accordingly.
For me the thing that's always worked well is to make aggressive bets when I feel confident about the direction of the market, and to scale back aggressively when I don't.
Right now my exposure is about one tenth what it was earlier this year.
Again, I may be missing out on the trade of the century, but if I can't see it I can't navigate it.
o, no
Wow, I was first!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOO
ice Colbert video, btw, ECB.
I blew my liquidity!
last?
I laughed my assests off- I'm planning on getting the buy one get one free boob job.
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Oh no! You mean we won't be building any more wonderful malls and strip centers? Say it aint so!
Businesses are dumping office space at the fastest pace since the months after the Sept. 11 attacks, increasing the financial stress on commercial-real-estate owners and their lenders, many of them already ailing financial institutions.
Office Space Is Emptying Out - WSJ.com
Maybe some strip malls can be plowed under. American would be better off for it.
Local anecdote: Stores have been closing on my local pedestrian mall since mid-summer.
Holy-sh**, CNBC has gone to a deca-box! It's bad, bad, bad.
Fuld up next on CSPAN>
Popeye writes:
Comrade Barron [not a dope] Von Helmut,
I don't buy it... a market capitulation this soon after the infamous bailout is too embarrassing to the ptb - this won't stand.
Popeye | 10.06.08 - 12:40 pm |
9800 here we come...
Under oath.....like that means anything these days.
Ciao
MS
Vacancy glut?
Hmmm, well, at least there will be plenty of space for the government to hand-out methadone...
I live outside of Syracuse and the pace of building here has been glacial for the past ten years. Everything gets approved and financed in super slo-mo. Well finally in my neighborhood they just built the prettiest little office complex (and I mean "little"). So cute, so neat, very attractive place to do business. Sad that it probably isn't going to be occupied any time soon. Then again, I'm really not quite sure we're going to notice much of a dramatic slowdown... just "slow as usual"... since the rest of the country is now drawing down to OUR usual level...
Early stages...soon vacany will reach 20-25%. Book it!
Every jewlery store will be gone soon..good riddance you fake gold sellers
There is new two story strip mall near my daughter's house. Completed in June, retail space on the first floor, office space on the second. One tenant so far. Yikes
Whats the word on the Economy in AZ? I can't imagine it's much behind CA, it most of in entirely built on RE. I don't think it would bode well for McCain if the state comes out looking for a federal loan.
Meanwhile, out here in the IE, they're still building commercial/strip/office condos like it's 2003. I drove along the 15 yesterday to the 91 and it was amazing how the things are mushrooming.
DOWN Goes Frazier
DOWN Goes Frazier
And yet--my town is underwriting a huge "euro-style" retail/condo complex. Talk about double jeopardy--who wants to bet construction stalls?
Dick Fuld: [whocouldanode!]. I take responsibility for my decisions, but it was JPM's fault
"I take full responsibility for the decisions made and the actions taken."
Maybe some strip malls can be plowed under. American would be better off for it.
Why can't the US government buy them?
Just like all those companies who borrowed money and bought up their own stock while it was still grossly overpriced.
We need to get some more poison pills in this puppy so we can win some elections.
Oh, and Syracuse has just started building its DestiNY USA complex, which was supposed to rival the Mall of America but was wrapped up in tax and development hell for almost 10 years. LOL... I think if they just stay on the typical pace, they should have it completed by the time the Depression is over.
I thought Bush was bad for the indexes, but Fuld is bringing on some serious tanking.
Media lied about Lehman, apparently it didn't go bankrupt -- the media were just being pessimistic
You just keep trying to see a CRE bust that isn't there.
Oh, wait.
Citi wants 60 billion .... they're beyond cooked they're baked!
cmao..it's so sad
How much of a bounce would we get if they announced a Dick Fuld public execution? I'm thinking that would be good for at least 300 points on the dow.
CRE will definitely bust, but I doubt it will be near the same size.
The fact housing was so profitable drew away labour and materials from the lower margins/longer term CRE
Sure I bet he takes responsibility for it. If he is such a "passionate" employee then why does he needs to read from a piece of paper.
"I feel horrible"
I bet you do.....how about all those bonus' you got out the door before the monday filing?? or that huge transfer of cash from london AFTER the filing.
Fuck him....
Ciao
MS
Wachovia [WB 5.60 -0.61 (-9.82%) \t ] shares were halted around noon amid news that Citigroup [C 16.36 -1.99 (-10.84%) \t ] was filing a complaint, citing breach of contract, after Wachovia snubbed its bid in favor of a deal with Wells Fargo. Citi is apparently seeking $60 billion in damages.
Nemo...I think the Doc Bank Holiday suggestion is becoming more relevant by the second.
ope, nope, nope.... there is too much credibility on the line... there will be some {possibly pure bs event} .... but the market does not fold here -
However, I ain't puttin any money on that.
across the board , i'm selling puts otm to ope
Austin Powers - 100 billion dollars
YouTube - Austin Powers - 100 billion dollars
In the burbs of DC, still a lot of development going on. We noticed this weekend 5 new strip malls that are mostly finished / are being developed on a 2 mile stretch of road in Manassas.
Most of the store fronts are empty.
and to add insult to injury, there was a local grocery in one of the older strip malls - believe it went out of business about 3/4 years ago - still vacant!
Fuld: It was the short sellers' fault!
From out my window in Bellevue, Washington I can still see 11 cranes. And the idiots are still building. Mostly condos, with asking prices between 750k and 1M. At this point I'm fairly certain that the developers know they're toast, but as long as they keep building they can delay the inevitable. This is going to be a disaster!
I don't remember if it was rich or Rob Dawg, but one of the heavies here explained why a bank holiday cannot happen. Perhaps a market holiday, but bank holidays are no longer as simple as they were in the past.
Does anyone really expect a bank holiday going forward?
So how can we profit from this?
SRS sucks
Are we in a recession yet, CR? LOL
Fuld cont'd
Short sellers and bloggers spread rumors to drive down the price. The low share price made it hard for their money-making-super-solvent business to raise the money-that-they-didn't-need
Other firms failed, AIG AIG AIG, their fault for causing fear that should not have applied to Lehma
Dick Fuld answers to the people.
C-span
Sarbanes about about to rip him a new..
elaine writes:
Fuld: It was the short sellers' fault!
Incredible! I'll bet the short sellers are causing this 500pt drop in the DOW today too, someone should ask him.
Unless there's dirt on JPM this will be most uninteresting.
Funny how Bush's little pep talk has already been forgotten. No headline on CNBC, Yahoo.
YouTube - Viewpoint: Economist Dean Baker on the Bailout Panic
Still got 989 to go. The Japanese believe 1,000 cranes is good luck.
Jeepers, I'm thinking 8850 now for XMAS
lol, they're making fun of Fuld's compensation because he made a point to say he owned shares going into bankruptcy
$480mn since 2000
Have you deserved 480 million?
HAVE YOU????
Gavshire Hathaway - Those condos are a disaster waiting to happen....with MSFT no longer hiring, Boeing strike and Real Estate values going down it will be ugly
Gavshire Hathaway, I was up that way this weekend. I couldn't believe all the cranes still up. LOL And Bel Square still booming. Party like it's...
Since 2000, Fuld earned $480 million - Waxman is asking him, "Is this fair?"
Re: bloggers spread rumors
I spread facts
I will not claim I deserved 480 million.... but I may have deserved 400 million....
He can not state that it was fair.
In Soviet Amerika, vacancy rates malls you.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
lol, they're making fun of Fuld's compensation because he made a point to say he owned shares going into bankruptcy
$480mn since 2000
IS it fair? .. He's trying to weasel out of answering that.
Wow, Fuld really, really doesn't get it - this is going to be like the tobacco company CEOs swearing that cigarettes don't cause cancer.
Just claim you earned it. Claim it's fair.
And then giggle a little.
"I lost 5 billion dollars!!!"
Dick Fuld: "I believe we are closer to THE END than the beginning"
Truer words never spoken! He was a prophet.
"Is that fair?"
Mole = whacked!
Quibble, quibble, quibble...
MS: Do you look like Mr. Fuld? This is how I picture you appearing.
We only have about 10% to go, but this is a matter of time, i.e, more is better
Wanna bet how low the S&P 500 goes? I say below 900, into the low 800s. I don't see it breaking below 800. Other opinions?
Waxman is as sleezy as Fuld. Sickening.
"Since 2000, Fuld earned $480 million"
Temporary wealth tax, anyone? Since we're already a socialist state...
Fuld should just say, well lookit my buddy Paulson. Ask how much he got and why he's doing what he is.
He made 500m tax free too on stocks. So give me a break and bring on the short sellers, who're really the problem.
It's going to keep going down until the hedgies get enough out to pay their redemptions.
Fuld:
We had a compensation committee that made me take the money because it would make the firm do well
Fuld responds "I can eat fifty eggs"
I think anything over 1 million should be taxed at 50% and anything over 5 million at 90%.
I just want his private squash court
We had a compensation committee that spent an extraordinary amount of time to give me 400 million dollars.
We had a compensation committee that made me take the money because it would make the firm do well
WTF? translation please?
aleister perdurabo writes:
Waxman is as sleezy as Fuld. Sickening.
Yeah, he's just really pissed that he doesn't have 1/2 a billion to show for it.
with a RICO indictment under the legal doctrine, corporations are responsible for their employees' crimes.
Who appoints the compensation committee?
quiet
Fuld: uhhh
Did you have a role in appointing that committee?
Fuld: At one time I did
The 5th Amendment is about to come out.
I believe I had more of a role in early mid-nineties in hiring the compensation committee.
Giggle.
elaine writes:
It's going to keep going down until the hedgies get enough out to pay their redemptions.
That makes sense to me.
Inflation is coming soon to pay off the national debt.
Who appoints the compensation committee?
quiet
Fuld: uhhh
Did you have a role in appointing that committee?
Fuld: At one time I did
Damning Statement by Fuld.
The guy does have balls sitting there without a lawyer.
Did yah give any of that profit to shareholders in a big dividend increase or did you grant yourself more options?
The guy does have balls sitting there without a lawyer.
Lawyer read Fuld's testimony and quit
The best way to control obscene income packages it to tax the hell out of them. If you have to give up 90% of what you make, that would stop the preposterous salaries very rapidly.
Lenny writes:
Inflation is coming soon to pay off the national debt.
HOW???
[Trading Stats writes:
across the board , i'm selling puts otm to open]
Why? Since the short ban markets have sold off hard at the close because there's no rush to cover to collect for the day. There's been an imbalance with settle way past 4P close.
Paulson said he needed a month before he would be geared up to start spending - hedgies caught - hmmmmmm
His name should be FUDD the way he's answering questions..
Evil I did well buying yen. It was your intelligent post that convinced me to do it. Thanks.
Fuld on leverage
You don't understand leverage. We had hedges (with insolvent counter parties)
Is there even one woman in DC who isn't full of Botox? They all have rubber faces and only their mouths move when they speak. I never see women like this in real life.
"If I get too technical, stop me."
Agreed Jim but Reagan made "tax" as taboo as "liberal." That will change.
what makes me really angry
bin laden that son-of-a-bitch
is in some hamlet on the northern boarder of whatever-a stan
and is feeling righteous and he's high fivin his hommies
if you watched grant on 60 min
and then watched the delta force commander on the same program last night
you saw what was unmistakably a decision by the bush administration that seemed deliberately designed to let bin laden escape
CSC,
I thought you were from SoCal?
Botox capital of the world. ; )
I was driving my daughter to school this morning, and I realized I do not want to live in the 3rd world. Nor do I want my family to. I do not want to carry concealed even though I can. I sure do not want to live in the modern equivalent of Dodge City 1870.
Unfortunately what I want does not mean anything. What will be playing in towns all over America is the new reality. When I think about it I find myself getting very angry. I do not like being angry.
Yesterday at the drug store the old lady in front of me did not have enough money to pay for her eye medicine. Why? The Dr. had changed the RX from drops to an oil of some sort. She did not know until she went to pick it up. The change apparently made it go up by $100
Yesterday I saw an old guy pushing a plastic dumpsteron wheels at Pennies Dept store. He was coming out of the employee area briefly, crossing the aisle in front of me to go to the backroom. He was having trouble pushing it. It mad me very sad.
What I see is a major reality adjustment coming and it is not going to be pretty.
"I am not aware of that."
Lawyer coached.
He has no regrets, no shame and no decency.
None. "I myself did not lobby for increased leverage".
He evades all questions by focusing on the narrowest possible reading and then runs out the clock.
Uhhhh...
US Congresspeople Told Martial Law Would Be Imposed if Bailout Bill Didn't Pass - Boing Boing
Some of Congress was briefed that Martial Law could be imposed if the Bailout didn't pass?!
Is there even one woman in DC who isn't full of Botox?
Secret. Washington hearings actually take place in a Hollywood studio.
"Matrix regulation"?
ren: Very true about SoCal, but these ladies never come to drum circles or hang at reggae shows.
And I don't go anywhere near Fashion Island. NBPD would probably ped-stop me in 5 minutes.
FDIC: Error 404 - Page Not Found
FDIC Speeches & Testimony
Remarks by Sheila C. Bair, Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on The Future of Mortgage Finance at the 2008 Annual Meeting National Association for Business Economics; Washington, D.C.
October 6, 2008
Oh, Sheila... "ran amuck"?
Surely you should know who Amok is and why he is invoked.
bearly ,
i'm collecting pretty decent premium in big stocks at levels that are another 10-15% down from here, for OCT expiration...
i'm willing to own them down there...for a trade.
Those people have always been there, but now are increasing, and we are finally moving past denial.
Is this for real writes:
Uhhhh...
404 Not Found 1...o.html#comments
Some of Congress was briefed that Martial Law could be imposed if the Bailout didn't pass?!
There is a lot of credibility on the line - this looks a lot like "the washout" to me. But I'm not betting yet.
BTW - Russia finished down 19% - YIKES!!
What I see is a major reality adjustment coming and it is not going to be pretty.
nova
It makes me angry too. The people who created these problems don't see the older woman in the drug store, or the senior pushing that cart. That is not in their reality. Have to hope karma IS a bitch.
Ministry of Truth :
Large national debt, no new taxes, a severe recession, and two wars. The federal government needs the money so it will print it.
Ministry of Truth:
And no more cheap loans from abroad.
In my experience, karma is a bitch, but she doesn't always move as fast as one would like or expect.
This sucker went up!
Oh-My:
Funny, because in my experience, karma is glorious. I guess it depends what we are sowing.
I don't feel angry so much more as I feel free.
It's really been a psychic drain having to watch all this conspicuous consumption on TV and around you. To know that there's no way your neighbors could have really afforded that Mexican vacation or the new McMansion in the exurbs. This nagging feeling you weren't keeping up with the Joneses... well, it turns out there was never any real prosperity to keep up with anyway.
It feels strangely liberating.
Someone punched Fuld at the gym after Lehman declared bankruptcy
Knocked him out
.... nope.... this is "THE WASHOUT" - otherwise Bernanke and Paulson resign ... this market is a buy - - - I'm just going to let somebody else start it; cuz I'm polite.
It makes me angry too. The people who created these problems don't see the older woman in the drug store, or the senior pushing that cart. That is not in their reality. Have to hope karma IS a bitch.
Whereismyretirement | 10.06.08 - 1:11 pm | #
Oh they see them, it makes them feel really good to see homeless people, makes them feel superior. Makes them feel good to see people cry and starve and eat food from dumpsters.
NoVAOnlooker writes:
Whats the word on the Economy in AZ?
Anecdotally, we are in a recession. Panic is setting in.
Oh-My-Loan Kenobi writes:
In my experience, karma is a bitch, but she doesn't always move as fast as one would like or expect.
Quit calling me names, i will happen when deeds are matured and not before, good and bad. But before then it may seem the exact opposite.
Reading the excellent Economist articles on the financial mess.
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12341996
This is an interesting paragraph:
By some measures, many European banks look more vulnerable than their American counterparts doand that is saying quite something, given the past weeks forced sale of Washington Mutual, Americas biggest thrift, and Wachovia, its fourth-biggest commercial bank. In America, outside Wall Street, the banks have lent 96 cents for each $1 of deposits. Continental European banks have lent roughly 1.40 for each 1 of deposits. They have to borrow the rest from money-market investors, who are not especially confident just now. Some Europeans, including the British, Irish and Spanish banks, have housing busts of their own. And they must contend with the toxic American securities they bought by the billion, as well as their own slowing economies.
Scumbag republicans still trying to throw it all on Fannie.
Kona writes:
Citi is apparently seeking $60 billion in damages.
Recapitalization through litigation. Brilliant! That's gold, baby!
Citi should start suing everyone. Send empployees out to trip on sidewalks, then sue. Bonuses tied to amounts collected, lawyers paid on contingency. 100% profit. Business schools will be writing glowing case studies about it in 10 years.
OT: Financial fears trickle down to kids.
(This one's for homedad34).
From the article: Erica J. Sandberg, a San Francisco-based financial somethinerother, says This is a great time to talk about what very poor countries are like and that we are nowhere near that...no matter what happens, our standard of living is really is [sic] a dream.
you got that right, sister!
Yes, it's all F and F's fault, who knew Fannie and Freddie could take down the entire World Financial System all by themselves...Gotta love wingnuts..
From Across the Curve:
The movements in the FX market are incredible. One friend just read me something which he has received from an fx trader which said that the only things that anyone desires to own are the US dollar,the Japanese Yen, gold, bottled water and bullets!!!
Dope Comrade Beach,
Loan to deposit ratio is 60-70% in Canada's big 5.
HSBC has a big margin there too.
Santander should have a lot of unloaned deposits from its South American acquisitions
Japanese banks have deposits to spare too, not sure if their post office lends it out to the market in some way, that is where a mountain of deposits are
was said "Anecdotally, we are in a recession. Panic is setting in."
actually its not going to be a recession
its gonna be much worse
When her husband lost his job as a mortgage underwriter at failed IndyMac Bank this July, one of the hardest moments for Jill Hofknecht was telling her 5-year-old daughter she couldn't have a pet hamster.
All the accoutrements that the little rodent required a cage, water bottle, food bowl, toys and food would have strapped the family's tight budget.
GMAFB. My dad lost his job during Reagan's "Morning in America" and we had plenty of money for a guinea pig. Who are they trying to shit? Maybe Mommy needs to stop buying stuff from QVC.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ,
Is there any talk of tax revenue shortfalls or massive budget deficits like CA?
Fuld hired the PR guy that got Martha Stewart through priso
anonymous writes:
When her husband lost his job as a mortgage underwriter at failed IndyMac Bank this July, one of the hardest moments for Jill Hofknecht was telling her 5-year-old daughter she couldn't have a pet hamster.
Obviously, we need socialized pet care. Vote Obama! For the children!
Sorry, Karma. Not meaning to name call. FWIW, I commend your bitchiness.
PS, re little Sweetie and her hamster... what's Mommy going to tell her next, that she has to go out on the street and sell matches to support Mommy's Pottery Barn habit?
Maybe they really couldn't afford the g pig. Or maybe, mom didn't want to take care of it.
I think that it is a good thing for kids to be told occasionally that they can't have something.
I miss mock absurd turtle.
Still losing it over the mushroom clown.
I think that it is a good thing for kids to be told occasionally that they can't have something.
Too bad their parents never learned.
Where did all these executives put the massive amount of money they took? If it was overseas can we use the military to reclaim it? That would be a use of the military that I could endorse.
Where is Sebastan? I need a good laugh at this point.
I got an email from a coin an militaria dealer. He sends his catalog and occasional notes.
This time he wrote about how he could not set prices anymore. Silver and gold are being hoarded. India has stopped buying. Spot price has no relation to what the real price is. Because there is no product out there.
The hoarding is because, according to him, everyone is expecting the price to skyrocket.
One of the benefits as a new WF customer I discovered was the ability to purchase discounted pet health insurance;) LOL
Has anyone in SoCal bought bullion in the last couple of weeks?
I'm heading down to my guy and wondering if there will be a single Krug in the sop.
citizen yogi
thanks
Paulson just named Neel Kashkari, a 35 year old ex-Goldman VP to oversee the $700BB bailout.
Interestingly, Kashkari looks a bit like Curly from the Three Stooges picture Cash and Carry in which the Stooges tunnel into the US Treasury.
Dope Brontide writes:
Where is Sebastan? I need a good laugh at this point.
Buying for tomorrow's bounce.
[i'm willing to own them down there...for a trade.
Trading Stats ]
I too see a near term bottom in Oct, after all the hedgie unwinding. Retail is another story.
"In America, outside Wall Street, the banks have lent 96 cents for each $1 of deposits"
That is like saying:
"I cannot seem to get this skype thing working, too slow connection. Although, my kid upstairs is sharing some files over the internet, talked something about SUPERNODE and ten TERABYTES of "stuff"."
Those banks outside Wall Street are fucked up anyway because WS geniuses did it for them already and without even asking for permission.
Real estate falls 20 percent and the banking system collapses.
Yep....TRUE GENIUSES
CSC-
Nope bought my kruggies in August of '06
Hear it's about a 3 month wait to have delivery.
Ciao
MS
TED 3.90
vix 53.44
OMFG.
Got ammo?
Some of Congress was briefed that Martial Law could be imposed if the Bailout didn't pass?!
How can we impose Martial Law with 300 million gun wielding Americans when we're already struggling with Iraq and Afghanistan? Or when we couldn't even manage to keep order in the aftermath of a hurricane in a single city?
If it really came down to serious civil unrest, I wonder if we could even manage to pull off martial law in a one uncooperative state.
Doesn't Kashkari look like Paulson's illegimate son? Same mouth, eyebrows, smile crease. And the similar background/locale growing up? Creepy.
If it really came down to serious civil unrest, I wonder if we could even manage to pull off martial law in a one uncooperative state.
Maybe Mass.
Re: " Note that the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change."
Very nice!
I must saw I like Dick Fauld - he seems decent, unlike Paulson who comes across as a cheap car salesma
anonymos said: "I think that it is a good thing for kids to be told occasionally that they can't have something.
Too bad their parents never learned."
The kids need to get used to doing without. They'll need that discipline when they're paying for the previous generations' profligacy.
Some of Congress was briefed that Martial Law could be imposed if the Bailout didn't pass?!
Were they being water boarded at the time?
MS: Thanks. And, since you dodged the Q about Fuld, I will assume that you look just like him.
No offense dude... I look like Jack Black and Jeff Spicoli's lovechild.
...and if Congress is so outraged about executive compensation, why didn't they put strict compensation limits in the $700B bailout bill!
Real estate falls 20 percent and the banking system collapses.
Yep....TRUE GENIUSES
Helen in Iowa | 10.06.08 - 1:27 pm | #
And only a small part of real estate defaulted (5%)!
They'll need that discipline when they're paying for the previous generations' profligacy.
Re the parents: It's amazing how a generation with such a high net worth has turned out to be so utterly worthless.
Kucinich is going for the kill.
Re: Kashkari was one of three Treasury staffersincluding general counsel Robert Hoyt and head of legislative affairs Kevin Fromerwho stayed up until 4 a.m. last Sunday putting together the $700 billion bailout bill that was shot down by House Republicans the next day."
Temporary wealth tax, anyone? Since we're already a socialist state...
90% marginal tax rate on anything above my level of income?
I'll buy into that.
Is there even one woman in DC who isn't full of Botox?
Botox is the wonder drug that solves all, including probably a deficient brain. Sharon Stone was reported recently to have wanted to give her son's feet injections of botox because they smelled.
bp-
you can't be serious....
Fuld is a bigger douche...but not by much.
He is putting on a show...nothing more.
Ciao
MS
To my best ability with the knowledge I had at the time I believe .... lol
Inspired by CSS
One bailout makes you bigger
And one bailout makes them smaller
But the bailout Paulson gives you
does not do anything at all.
Go ask Iceland!
jim writes:
Is there even one woman in DC who isn't full of Botox?
You left out Joe "Klingon" Biden. Man,that forehead was scary.
...an fx trader which said that the only things that anyone desires to own are the US dollar,the Japanese Yen, gold, bottled water and bullets!!!
You forgot the kittens and the ponies.
DOW 70 pts of it's lows. The Fuld bounce
Comrade Terry,
re children doing without, there is a substantial subset of both genx and gen y who have already experienced that and have those frugal reflexes. Almost anyone whose parents divorced has lived in poverty or close to it. Also, downsizing has been going on for more than 20 years. Booms are not the only recent history.
SRS sucks
Not today it doesn't!
While it's gotta be hard to explain to little sweetheart why she can't have her pet hamster, Dad might have experience in explaining difficult subjects, such as...
...exactly what he used to do all day long as an underwriter for IndyMac.
Seriously - "IndyMac underwriter" - isn't that some sort of oxymoron?
ac-
people here last night were trying to make the case for Euro's.......I had to laugh.......really hard.
Ciao
MS
AH that was CSC
Secret. Washington hearings actually take place in a Hollywood studio.
As they say, DC is Hollywood for ugly people.
There was a factory, now there are mountains and rivers.
thread music: Talking Heads
YouTube -
Ren: THANK YOU!
I grew up in Reagan era Rust Belt hell and I have spent the last decade wondering what planet I was transported to, watching a lot of people my age living like jerks and maxing out their credit cards. Not everyone has lived that way.
Haloscan won't let me refresh unless I post something.
Press F5 lawyerliz
Re: Kashkari didnt take a conventional route into banking. He started out as an aerospace engineer at TRW, developing technology for NASA projects like the James Webb Space Telescope, the replacement to Hubble, which is scheduled to launch in 2013.
Ok that does piss me off, this is just like Warsh getting into The Fed, i.e, you have highly in-experienced retards coming into positions of nepotism and they, like Brown in FEMA during Katrina, are fucking up America and have turned us into a third-rate third-world country!
What I get from that is he didn't finish the job he started and let God strike me down today, but this fucker will not have a clue as to how to waste $700 Billion, which is going in a black hole anyway -- Martha Stewart knows more about wall street finance than this piece of crap!
anonymous writes:
Not everyone has lived that way.
Right. But now everyone gets to pay the bill.
It makes me angry too. The people who created these problems don't see the older woman in the drug store, or the senior pushing that cart. That is not in their reality. Have to hope karma IS a bitch.
Whereismyretirement
This is one reason why I choose to believe in God even thought evidence is marginal. Comeuppance.
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Fuld evading on the JPM question... legal actions pending...
He even fudged the 5th Amendment.
"That would be the subject of litigation..."
Re: Haloscan won't let me refresh unless I post something.
Stop whining!
lawyerliz writes:
Haloscan won't let me refresh unless I post something.
lawyerliz | 10.06.08 - 1:36 pm | #
You can use Publish as an alternate refressh button. No need to input comments...unless you want to.
chances are that 1/3 of the posters in this thread were MEW whores.
Did he cover the frozen assets? What's the status of that.
Right. But now everyone gets to pay the bill.
Oh, I'll pay their bill all right. However this time I'm going to insist they get down on their knees and beg for the privilege of licking my shoe. Political apathy of the working class in this country is just about ready to end.
Dick Fuld wanted 3x what Korean Development Bank was offering
!
briwerk, thanks that is the coolest thing
Lawyerliz: Command + R to refresh if you're on a real computer.
I was once a MEW whore circa 2004, but quickly understood that not to be in our long term interest (my depression era/1940's parents always told me to be very wary of debt) so sold the house paid off all mortgages and debts and went back to renting.
CR,
That chart, post below of MEW looks exactly like the DOW chart from 2004-2008.
Exactly.
I'll admit I used my MEW......but not irresponsibly. It was shut off in March.....re-activated a month later and I promptly drained it and shorted financial stocks.
Call me whore all you want.....all of my home improvements are paid off, I owe nothing on three credit cards and have one auto loan along with a home loan that is still over 100k in the black.
Ciao
MS
CSC = RDF
It makes so much sense now!!!!!!
RDF?
Official Announcement:
The government today announced that it's changing our emblem from an eagle to a condom because it accurately reflects the governments political stance.
A condom allows for inflation, halts production, destroys the next generatio, protects a bunch of dicks and gives you a sense of security while your actually being screwed..
Now back to your regularly scheduled (Dow)n fall
So does anybody think that this might be a good time to buy in into the markets?
Before Sept I thought the low for the DOW would be 10K in this crisis. But it seems to have occurred rather too quickly.
I mean we still have the majority of the "Alt-A" resets yet to start...
opinions?
I am really pissed!!!!
Hey kids
come to the secret room!
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Corey writes:
Citi should start suing everyone. Send empployees out to trip on sidewalks, then sue. Bonuses tied to amounts collected, lawyers paid on contingency. 100% profit. Business schools will be writing glowing case studies about it in 10 years.
And then they should sue the lawyers for their fees stating inadequate represenation arguing that they should have gotten more. Brillian!
That chart, post below of MEW looks exactly like the DOW chart from 2004-2008.
Funny that.
CNBC: Rich guy puts own money at risk. Horror!
Rich guy: It's all the fault of the mark-to-market rule.
RDF= reality distortion field
in the presence of Mr Jobs or, more likely, a ganja influenced state of mind.
Hey CR,
How long before we get an update to your; "the CRE sector won't be hit as hard as RRE?"
Rob - CRE is a disaster and will be twice as big a problem as RRE
Do gold ETFs become riskier if the actual material is being hoarded and "unavailable at any price"? What are the implications?
i used to think 9k was the buy.now, i'm looking for 7500.
Sheldon Adelson -- MEGA D--K -- on CNBC right now. Advocating bans of short selling and mark to market (he owns Las Vegas Sands, got Macau concession for getting Bush to deliver IOC votes to give China Beijing 2008, could do that because he owns over half of the Republican party members. He has been pressuring to start a war with Iran because he's a real end of the world Israel warmonger, he really gets off on some sick stuff
Sorry I just need to share my opinion of that turd
MS - I DO like DF. I think he was a bit old-style and really cared about Lehman, not just the $$
I have a problem with trying to make him the scapegoat, while s*** like Paulson get to play hero, simply because they contribute big-time to corrupt politicians
regarding the hamster theme:
When people are starving those hamsters may look mighty tasty.
"This document is not familiar to me" Wow. A lot of tension in the room right now.
crispy& cole writes:
Rob - CRE is a disaster and will be twice as big a problem as RRE
Could you see that coming from high atop the Crisp Tower in the CSUBakersfield hospitality penthouse?
We are so frakin' over retailed there is nothing to model. None of my indicators go to "11." It's like trying to predict the debris field with only the last reported position before falling off the radar.
Sebastian Update! I captured what I believe was Sebastian's last post where he shared some HOT investing-sebastian-style tips, a couple months ago. He LOVES small caps! I don't think Brian Westbury could lose as much for his rapidly shrinking client base.
Price_Paid Symbol Last Trade Gain/Loss
24.48 ABAX 16.5601 -32.35%
42.40 ARD 29.17 -31.20%
32.63 BMRN 23.41 -28.26%
15.04 BRKR 11.33 -24.67%
26.87 EGLE 9.20 -65.76%
10.98 INCY 5.82 -46.99%
Total -37.34%
"I was driving my daughter to school this morning, and I realized I do not want to live in the 3rd world."
Well, the 3rd world won't be doing so great, either. They'll go down, too... they just don't have as far to fall.
vote them all out.....regardless of party. Time for a revolution and we the people can do it by voting against ALL incumbents.
Arizona still in recession, no sign of a bottom, Signs for CRE are blooming like flowers in the desert.
40-50% of house sales are short sale/REO, inventory is dropping because listing get pulled on no bid action. Light rail construction boom is winding down and no imminent boost expected.
Google is bailing out of Phoenix, Freescale is selling/killing a division, Countrywide evaporated, tax receipts are down.
The Five Year Plan is proving most efficient in losing our comrades Ameros.
Good times!!
Do gold ETFs become riskier if the actual material is being hoarded and "unavailable at any price"? What are the implications?
My gut feeling is that when it comes down to it an ETF is not fundamentally different from any other paper currency or contract.
It is a promise that can be broken, and the while reason holding physical gold is attractive is because keeping it is not dependent on somebody else keeping their word.
The ETF removes that feature.
(BTW, I'm not long gold, but who knows I may end up regretting that.)
"Could you see that coming from high atop the Crisp Tower in the CSUBakersfield hospitality penthouse? "
LMFAO!!!
thread bet....i bet Dow ends down 675 today.
the bet? 10 shares of FNM.
wow, maybe an acceleration to the downside happening in the DOW
bearly - Total -37.34%
Thanks
Wow, dove to a new low...I think I'll partake in some fine greenery and bottle of wine, I might as well be intoxicated for this...
This document does not look familiar to me? Sorry junior, I don't care
Maybe we go down 778 today...just saying
So, is it time to buy now? I keep waiting to get short for a rally that hasn't yet come.
David writes:
vote them all out.....regardless of party. Time for a revolution and we the people can do it by voting against ALL incumbents.
David | 10.06.08 - 1:55 pm | #
NO--vote out the party that has had total control the last 8 years and appointed complicit idiots to high places. Filibuster rules + supreme leader+ supreme court made this mess--don't ever vote for a neo-con. If you can find a moderate, non lockstep Republican, go for it.
ac: yeah that's precisely what scares me... promises are too easily broken in these barbarous times...
How much credit spread and how long can GE take?
crispy& cole writes:
"Could you see that coming from high atop the Crisp Tower in the CSUBakersfield hospitality penthouse? "
LMFAO!!!
Thankyou, thank you. I'll be here through the "recession." Try the hamster. Really, tastes like veal. Are they Kosher? Depends on how you cook 'em. Take my house... please!
Popsie Nomansky wrote:
I am really pissed!!!!
Popsie, at this hour! You should try to sober up. The hangover will be a bitch.
EBay to cut 1,600 jobs, 10 percent of work force
If you want to know why McCain isn't doing well in the polls, here it is. The whiners are getting even more whiny
Poll finds 6 of 10 believe a depression is somewhat or very likely - seeing 25% unemployed and millions homeless and hungry.
guys, it takes both parties to fulck it up this bad.
I thought Ebay was the future? All that was in America. Home of the entrepurnial spirit that makes us great.
I think that the EUR/USD being down today will give false comfort to a lot of Americans watching their investments
Re: we the people can do it by voting
The people are voting today
Eating hamsters. In M Moore movie on Detroit they ate rabbits.
ARW writes:
guys, it takes both parties to fulck it up this bad.
ARW | 10.06.08 - 2:01 pm | #
No--it takes total party feasance to supreme leader with very low moral/intellectual standing.
Meg "cashed-out of options" Whitman is a big McSame advisor...
ova wrote:
I thought Ebay was the future? Uh, nova did you mean Craigs List? They are putting a hurt on eBay.
Diogenes: Ebay owns craigslist!
I was at the mall this past week, and here is what I saw:
The VIX volatility index had been boosted over 56 taking out its highest levels in its 18-yr existence (Bloomberg) indicating the escalating cost of options as well as a measure of fear and expected protracted volatility.
Craigslist. I know. I am just so 1990's I guess.
10 minutes before traditional PPT time - jus sayi
ac: yeah that's precisely what scares me... promises are too easily broken in these barbarous times...
I think people will start to straighten up now that they're getting to look reality in the face for a little bit.
At least that's always happened before.
Hopefully the damage isn't too bad, but I don't think it's impossible that one day we'll look back on the Great Depression as a "positive" outcome.
Dow at 9,777.89
What a co-inky-dink!
Sorry... back to the gloom.
Massachussets asks feds for money, weeks away from not being able to pay bills
The PPT better get busy then, it's cliff diving again.
briwerk wrote:
Diogenes: Ebay owns craigslist! Well I'll be damned...competing against yourself. What will they think if next. No more scotch for me today!
"Massachussets asks feds for money"
Hey we were here first (California taxpayers)...
Wanna bet how low the S&P 500 goes? I say below 900, into the low 800s. I don't see it breaking below 800. Other opinions?
Do you think the current decline will be less than dotcom? That was also a collapsing debt event, but quite mild overall, affecting mostly vaporware companies with few employees. In that event s&p500 declined 50% while the center of the storm, the nasdaq, lost 78%... I expect the s&p to go down at least 60%, R2000 75%, to 600 and 200. Widespread bankruptcies and unemployment, very tough times.
" Total -37.34%
Thanks
crispy& cole "
To be fair, Sebastian did not post the number of shares he purchased so I plugged in 100ea. His results could be much worse than 37% DOWN.
Oh, I forgot a few other things:
And this is just the commercial real estate failures - let's not get into housing!
Calling bottoms (farther up the thread)is just too idiotic at this point. Where are these sector's going to achieve yield?
Look at the DJIA chart from '06-'07....
It's not done by a long shot. Just may take longer than it did when it was pushed up. How many times did we awake to monday morning news that some hedge fund was over-paying for some asset? Too many times to count.
It's still got plenty of air to let out. But it won't be a 'natural correction'....in a normal correction things like leverage and failing business models are not much of a factor.
This one is.
Ciao
MS
Music for the day --
Know when to walk away, and know when to run
10 minutes before traditional PPT time - jus sayin
I just noticed Ritholtz made a call to go long.
He's been pretty good with those this year. It's really hard to tell with this kind of chaos tho...
I won't take any real big long side risks in this environment, but I'll certainly consider some small ones.
Has Mr. Market Timer Bob Brinker capitulated yet - LOL. He was calling this a blak swan, sounds like an excuse to me.
jkiss writes:
Wanna bet how low the S&P 500 goes?
970 was the last low, if I recall - after Bush was elected.
700
S&P 800.58 Oct 4, 2002
See Google Finance
Has Mr. Market Timer Bob Brinker capitulated yet - LOL. He was calling this a blak swan, sounds like an excuse to me.
Haha... so it's a black swan when half the blogs on the Internets are calling for it to happen?
[Popeye writes:
10 minutes before traditional PPT time - jus sayin]
PPT move was based on a lot of shares trading short with an itchy cover finger. With the short ban in place the 2P bounce has been broken.
10 minutes before traditional PPT time - jus sayin
I just noticed Ritholtz made a call to go long.
Fuck Ritholtz. he has never been right..
he got whipsawed on OIL Calls
he is a contra
his is too pompous and self indulgent too..thinks he is a BSD
Richard Fuld going before House Oversight Committee.
unfair for both sides.
but it's primo video.
CNBC Live Video: Watch the Latest Market Reporting and Analysis - CNBC.com
I thought Ebay was the future? All that was in America. Home of the entrepurnial spirit that makes us great.
nova
A soviet collective of online shopkeepers our comrades are.
Coincidence that the two bluest of the blue Dem states (CA and MA) are first in line at thr trough for a handout? Just saying. I have an open letter to vote out all incumbents this November.
Yes, it's all F and F's fault, who knew Fannie and Freddie could take down the entire World Financial System all by themselves...Gotta love wingnuts..
Comrade Kristina
Hahaha. Yea lets blame 10 CEO's for a World Financial crisis. That makes a lot more sense.
ac My call is for last week of October to have a bumpy rally that is ultimately sideways by Dec. Cliffjumping resumes next year
Re: Wanna bet how low the S&P 500 goes? I say below 900, into the low 800s. I don't see it breaking below 800. Other opinions?
Im looking at that now too; S&P500 has been a smooth place for a long time, but there must be lots of old redemptions triggering a tsunami...
Ritholz jumped the shark months ago.
He's been too busy on CNBC and other media outlets to have time for this stuff.
When he did make a long call he never backed it up with anything other than "go long because".
Quant. investing is so last year
Ciao
MS
All these hudge fund managers keep saying they're buying now so why does the market keep falling?
Actually surprised there are less than 500 people hanging out here at the moment. Everybody raise your hand, let's have a head count.
BM writes:
Actually surprised there are less than 500 people hanging out here at the moment. Everybody raise your hand, let's have a head count.
raises hand
wow- low after Bush took over was spx 800.58
JJL, not really a coincidence -- they were the most exposed to a housing boom/bust -- however Florida beat them when their state MM fund imploded, and Alabama when Jefferson County realized they owed $3b
just talked to my broker at monex.
silver is not available, period. no us, south african glod coinage, there are austrian. but they can barely stamp them out fast enough, even having the mint open weekends.
massive world wide hoarding. MWWH.
Present
uh-huhh..
again, anyone?
Fuld is such a loathsome slug - vain, preening, regarding himself a noble eagle.
Do you think the MSM will ever admit that they once again sat cheerleading during the bubble, just as they did for the Iraq war, and that the blogs were right?
So this is what happens when we finally get a Harvard MBA president. Legacy sucks (2 meanings for legacy fit).
I keep waiting for Hussman ideas to ponder:
Hussman: Widening Credit Spreads Spell Doom For Stocks, Economy
Aug 25, 08 2:18 PM
Years ago, Larry Williams used to look for a situation he called the Jaws of Death noting that when bond prices were weakening but stock prices were strengthening, the two differing trends opened a set of jaws that tended to snap shut, usually due to abrupt weakness in stocks. On that note, Bill Hester sent a chart over the weekend noting I thought this was an interesting graph. The blue line is the 5-Yr Swap Spread, and the red line is the VIX. Credit investors are getting very nervous while equity investors are mostly whistling Dixie. It looks like a variation on the jaws of death that you've mentioned to me before . Nothing like a good picture to complete the story (thanks Bill)
Can we get another magic -777 today?
Alan Greenspend: My Canadian cash has only gained in value, Spare any change? Canada unveils C$1 million coin
| Oddly Enough
| Reuters
Down 610...if only there were short sellers to help stop the downdraft...
MS - lemme guess, Barry "jumped the shark" the day he banned you from posting in the comments on his blog.....I can hardly wait for CR to jump the shark.
Ritholz jumped the shark months ago.
He's been too busy on CNBC and other media outlets to have time for this stuff.
When he did make a long call he never backed it up with anything other than "go long because".
It seems like twice he nailed a short term bottom, at least when I was paying attention.
Personally I'm finally getting to the point where I don't have a good feel for what's going to happen next, so I'm scaling back accordingly.
For me the thing that's always worked well is to make aggressive bets when I feel confident about the direction of the market, and to scale back aggressively when I don't.
Right now my exposure is about one tenth what it was earlier this year.
Again, I may be missing out on the trade of the century, but if I can't see it I can't navigate it.