For once, I agree with him. This is about the only way to address the problem of frozen ST lending channels. If they don't get unstuck, get ready for some real doomsday scenarios.
To the person that was skeptical about "living off the grid" in the last thread:
People in these communities live on a grid, just not on THE grid. Small microeconomies develop where like minded individuals reach a critical mass. There are people who are hooked into the grid on the perhiphery of such communities, generally doctors, dentists, accountants, and government workers. These perhipherals receive steady income from outside grid sources (medical insurance payments, government paychecks, etc.) to feed resources into the microeconomic grid. It's like a big unmonitorable dark spot where the government can't see. Within the community there is a large degree of barter, cash transactions, and neighbors helping neighbors.
Average Americans know little of the ways of Wall Street nor will they ever, I suppose. Every day, these days, is on-the-job training for yours truly, so how could Jane or John Doe ever understand the complexities of overnight repos or reverses, the selling or buying of protection on corporations via Credit Default Swaps (CDS), or the reasons why some investment banks are saved while others are allowed to fail? They cannot.
Yet we are all supposed to manage our own retirement funds via 401k.
Most overheard comment in the office today: "Don't look at your 401k."
_
At some point catastrophy has to occur to create real change in the way we do things. You cannot inflate your way out of this. Sure, it's gonna hurt. I'd be OK amputating both legs to stave off cancer instead of dying a slow death by doing little if nothing at all.
That 4%+ front end load on his total return fund is a non starter in this environment. Add to that his awful tax efficiency and it's a wonder anyone listens to that tard at all.
Everytime these losers ask for more money instead do another tax rebate.
A $700 billion rebate would have been about $8,000 per family. When the families received it they have deposited it in the bank and then used it to purchase things. Using taxes to make the wealthy and corporations whole is outrageous and bad economics. Let the banks go under. Someone will come along and buy them.
At some point catastrophy has to occur to create real change in the way we do things. You cannot inflate your way out of this. Sure, it's gonna hurt. I'd be OK amputating both legs to stave off cancer instead of dying a slow death by doing little if nothing at all.
Catastrophe? You want catastrophe?
"For a people, the economy - any kind of economy, whether primitive or modern - is the means of survival from day to day. So if you ruin the economy - if you suspend its functioning, even for a few months - you take away the means of survival. Eventually, if enough people do live, the economy will revive in one form or another, but in the meantime people will die: they will starve, because the supply of food has been cut off; they will freeze, because they have no fuel or shelter; they will perish of illness, because they have no medical care. If the economy in question is a modern, technological one, the consequences will be particularly severe, for then the obstacles to restoring it will be greatest. Because a modern economy, like an ecosystem, is a single, interdependent whole, in which each part requires many other parts to keep functioning, its wholesale breakdown will leave people unable to perform the simplest, most essential tasks. Even agriculture - the immediate means of subsistence - is caught up in the oerations of the interdependent machine, and breaks down when it breaks down. Modern agriculture depends on fertilizers to make crops grow, on machines to cultivate the crops, on transportation to carry the produce thousands of miles to the consumers, on fuel to run the means of transportation and the agricultural machinery, and on pesticides and drugs to increase production. If fertilizers, machines, transportation, fuel, pesticides, and drugs are taken away, agricuolture will come to a halt, and people will starve. Also, because of the interdependence of the system, no sector of the economy can be repaired unless many of the other sectors are in good order."
- Jonathan Schell, "The Fate of the Earth"
"Last scene of all,
That ends this strange eventful history, Is second childishness and mere oblivion; Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything"
"How is the Fed pushing on a string going to do any good. FFR is quite irrelevant at this point."
Yes, but lower FFR is probably already discounted, so we will see more pain if they don't. But I expect a little more creativity than a simple rate cut. That probably why we haven't seen the announcement yet - they are trying to construct some scheme for pushing money past the banks, and good schemes take time.
Lets see gov't is now guaranteeing $2T Money markets, $5T in F&F. Now Gross wants another $1T guarantee for CP. Why not just guarantee everything. No losses on anything, ever, as long as BB is Fed Chairman.
Situation Report: So far as I can tell by working the telephones this morning:
LIBOR bid only, no offer.
Commercial paper market shut down, little trading and no issuance.
Corporations have no access to long or short term credit markets -- hence they face massive rollover problems.
Brokers are increasingly not dealing with each other.
Even the inter-bank market is ceasing up.
--
"Lets see gov't is now guaranteeing $2T Money markets, $5T in F&F. Now Gross wants another $1T guarantee for CP. Why not just guarantee everything. No losses on anything, ever, as long as BB is Fed Chairman."
Anonymous,
What part of socializing risk and losses don't the American People understand? What a system!
People in these communities live on a grid, just not on THE grid. Small microeconomies develop where like minded individuals reach a critical mass.
Most of this stuff just sounds like suburbia, but on some kind of mythical farm.
There are already people living in rural communities and they aren't exactly going to let you run things. That's what non-rural Americans have a problem with. The idea of not getting to be in charge.
anonymous: I couldn't bring myself to kill a dying duckling, but then it turned out that I brought a virus with me from the turkeys and was responsible for the deaths of thousands of his friends.
As Jeffery collapsed into the crumpled pile of blankets, the ball gag fell out of his mouth and he looked up at Big Barney with a grin, "Gawd, Barney, if not for the benevolent fist of government, I'd still be climbing the walls of Le Petite Shrimp piano bar."
Here's the skinny on Gross's vaunted total return fund:
Returns are after federal taxes, fees & loads (info from finra a/o 8/31/08):
1yr: 3.04%
3yr: 1.79%
5yr: 2.69%
10yr: 3.39%
What a sham. And to think, Gross is one of the "better" money (mis)mangers. Seriously. All the old maids buying from treasury direct have outperformed this charlatan. Absent the feds bailout of FNM & FRE Gross's returns would undoubtedly be way worse.
What a sham. The man should ashamed of his egregious fees and poor performance.
Seeing the cash drifting down like snow upon the gilded streets of Manhattan, the crowd chased the helicopter back to its launch point; debt slaves, hungry children, born and bred dopes all, prostrated themselves in eager supplication, but the benevolent fist of government was empty.
10 points to the person who can use it most cleverly in a sentence.
Nemo | Homepage | 10.06.08 - 7:23 pm | #
For whom does this fist pound! Why it pounds for you my litle citizen. Feel the benvolence, taste the love, and come! I say again Come! Come to the mall and tithe to me.
To anyone who thinks Gross knows everything, I have read him for years and can recall how PIMCO sent analysts to check out how housing was going to turn out when it went bad. Well, their conclusion was that there would be a correction in prices, not the nuking we're all getting now. And they studied this sucker closely. So don't make yourselves feel better by listening to some big name.
1) Net Creditors. Have plenty of capital. But are reluctant to invest it due to near-term shortage of profit-making opportunities, plus rampant government rule-changing. Lack of Creditor Confidence is driving higher interest rates.
2) Solvent Borrowers. Require rolling over credit, but have enough cash flow to manage higher interest rates. Will survive, provided credit conditions do not deteriorate too far.
3) Doomed Borrowers. Require credit on favorable terms -- credit that is no longer available due to creditors' belated recognition of risks. Destined for a hard reboot via bankruptcy.
2 Observations:
First, the political battle is between the Creditors ("No Socialism") and the Doomed Borrowers ("Bail Me Out"), with the Solvent Borrowers providing the swing votes.
Second, Government activity breeds uncertainty which leads to higher interest rates. The more the government meddles with the necessary process of creative destruction, the worse it gets because the Creditors become less comfortable.
One Conclusion:
The Solvent Borrowers should side with the Creditors (upon whom they truly depend), and against the Doomed Borrowers (whose markets they can conquer). If not -- if the nation continues to beg for the Government to "Do Something" -- the Creditors will be spooked even more, and more of the Solvent Borrowers will be Doomed.
"Everytime these losers ask for more money instead do another tax rebate.
A $700 billion rebate would have been about $8,000 per family. When the families received it they have deposited it in the bank and then used it to purchase things"
agree 100%. suspend the payroll tax for a year. let the investment banks fail and guarantee depoists.
hello out there--this is starting to sound like Enron raping CA. It seems so coordinated and the rush to get so much money and to merge those that should never merge. Rapes are allowed when the police are paid off.
if I have lots of cash on hand, isn't deflation a GOOD thing? I guess its bad because people can't pay their debt, and I lose out on my mortgage... but seriously... if wages are stagnant, isn't deflation good?
Why clean it up - don't the mom goats eat it like cattle? Those are calories that were 'hard earned' - they aren't 'given up' lightly
Yeah but we had a busload of kids coming to tour the place. Heck, to end my day I mucked out the stable. You have Morgans in there and it is hip boot time.
Don't worry, The Little Shrimp closed down years ago. I remember in college some of my female friends would dare each other to go in there and ask a guy to dance, i.e., cut on a pair of guys.
This is interesting: 60,000 sq. ft. single tenant office building in Rancho Cordova, 8.1% cap on actuals. 30% below replacement cost. Tenant is "locked into" all sorts of state federal govt. contracts. Originally configured as multitenant bldg.
richmond fed lacker "it looks pretty likely tat this is going to be declared a recession" "so far this has been a mil slowdown...."
he doesnt think they need to cut.
"Vaguard's California Tax Exempt MM Fund is returning 5.17% tax free to California residents."
Yup, I own some. Just took a big price hit, of course. Tempting to double down, but is the debt good at this point? Do I think people are paying their property tax if they can't make their mortgage payments? I guess we find out after December 10th. I can sure see a lot of tax defaults on the foreclosure maps.
DEFLATION IS GOOD FOR HONEST HARDWORKING PEOPLE AND BAD FOR THE REST.
Wait for the job loss - their employers are levered to the eyeballs & delever via headcount reduction - they'll be SCREAMING for return to wage slave status & inflation. It is the way it always goes. It is the way it WILL go.
But you can pine for what never will be - fine with me.
There once was a man nicknamed Benny
Who had one valent fist too many
His pals Bill and Hank
Gave all us a hard spank
On our Fred and our Dow and our Fannie.
For Christmas there will be a lot of home heating oil vouchers, courtesy of the benevolent fist of government. The goobers just haven't announced it yet - not cold enough.
Defltion? Inflation?
We are now in deflation and, except for that illusionary commodities bubble, have been for some time. When it flips to inflation, which it must at some point for the reasons dryfly indicates, that will be the 'tell'. Time.
Looks like Mr. Gross got part of his wish fulfilled. There are reports that the Fed is organizing a "stealth cut" by paying interest on reserves and allowing rates to drop below target.
Homework assignment for you all - go to a major mall or shopping district this weekend, report back what you see...
I hadn't done that in a while & did it last weekend - place was packed, restaurants were packed (multiple hour waiting lists for expensive shitty food theme restaurants)... blew my mind.
This was in the Twin Cities - Midwest - we aren't talking high end Cali or NYC.
My wife (who is also aware of the economy) and I were jaw dropping surprised.
sm_landlord: "Vaguard's California Tax Exempt MM Fund...Yup, I own some. Just took a big price hit, of course."
As far as I know (as of today) the MM fund is still $1 a share...they haven't broken the buck, but with state of tax revenues in today's California municipalities...it pays to be vigilant.
sm_landlord:"Tempting to double down, but is the debt good at this point?"
See above about being vigilant. Still waiting to see if Vanguard will join the MM guarantee program (Oct 8 deadline)...
im betting a very long deflationary period. japan pushed debt to highest absolute level in the history of the industrilaized world ( and over 9% of gdp - we are at about4%) in an attempt to support agregate demand and end deflation and it took them over 10 years to get core cpi above 0 - and their core includes energy.
"Homework assignment for you all - go to a major mall or shopping district this weekend, report back what you see..."
Forget the freaking shopping mall...head over to the Port of Los Angeles and see the lack of frenzy in loading and unloading the shipping containers. I was in the area Friday and Monday, and it looked slower than I have ever seen it before. Anecdotal Leading Economic Indicator (ALEI)...
"im betting a very long deflationary period. japan pushed debt to highest absolute level in the history of the industrilaized world ( and over 9% of gdp - we are at about4%.."
Takings clause doesn't apply to the invalidation of a form of contract, otherwise there would be a 5th amendment case every time a contract was invalidated for public policy reasons (A LOT).
To the tune of "Jingle Bells" (improvements welcome)
We've got too many debts,
there's no way we can pay,
in arrears we go,
foreclosure on the way!
Bankers' phones we ring,
But no workout in sight,
Time to say goodbye and fling
The keys back - oh this bites!
Jingle mail, jingle mail,
jingle all the way!
It hurts like hell to lose our home,
But there is no other way!
Jingle mail, jingle mail,
jingle all the way!
It hurts like hell to lose our home,
But there is no other way!
yes and even with all those savings and all that government spending to build infrastructure and boost employment and try to spur demand it still took a decade. we dont hvae huge savings pool so it may take even longer for househld balance sheets to improve and spending to resume.
Was it part of the original Paulson plan was that he could act without regard to contract law. It may be that he could have destroyed the CDSs. Some would win; some would lose -- paper profits/losses.
Dryfly,
On Cape Cod I hear stories of people losing their jobs left and right. A lot of stores in Downtown Falmouth that have been in business for years are shutting down. Yet went to the 99 eatery Sunday night and it was packed.
Speed writes:
Local Chili's restaurant last Friday at 12 noon: more empty tables than full.
Speed | 10.06.08 - 7:55 pm | #
That is what I expected to see - empty tables - told my family there might be a line but no wait for an 8PM dinner at Cheesecake Factory (shitty theme restaurant my daughter likes) in a 'recession'... went there and the crowd was out into the parking lot - 2 hr wait! PF Changs next door the same... I wouldn't wait 10 minutes for that crap... So my DW said lets go to MOA and eat at DIL's ex-employer [she knew the staff] they got us in in about 45min... another theme restaurant but at least we got good service 'cause they knew us.
BTW MOA was packed right up to closing - my son works there and didn't get out until past midnight.
I am still trying to digest what I saw & reconcile w/ the news & numbers I see elsewhere... are we all in an echo chamber?
Last month I challenged the shill Bill Gross to a steel cage match so that he would have to earn a chance to take all of my money. I have yet to get a reply. Mr. Gross is beyond the pale in asking for rate cuts and government buying of trouble assets because he bet the house on exactly that happening. I am sure PIMCO advisor Alan Greenspan assured Mr. Gross he was "too big to fail". That guy is a loser.
Takings clause doesn't apply to the invalidation of a form of contract, otherwise there would be a 5th amendment case every time a contract was invalidated for public policy reasons (A LOT).
You're right, a judicial avoiding or non-enforcement of a contract between two privates for public policy reasons doesn't invoke the Fifth Amendment.
Congress eliminating an entire class of contracts would invoke the Fifth Amendment.
Deflation is a killer to the super rich...they will do everything in their power to prevent it. For the poor deflation means nothing.
Deflation is a killer for anyone in debt, including the US. It's either inflate or collapse. I'm hoping for the former but very concerned about the possibility of the latter.
I killed a prostitute in Siem Reap, Cambodia once. I cannot imagine a chicken being any harder.
The difference is that you should eat the chicken AFTER you kill it.
See, now why did you go and retract that? We were finally getting to the point where we could sit around the CR thread, hold hands, and relate our darkest moments while feeling the loving support of our fellow dejected travellers.
Now I have to keep that story of the mule, the sorority girl, three rolls of ducttape and a bag of rohypnol-laced gummy worms all to myself.
Dryfly, It is weird isn't it? We were at the mall, Kohls, and Dicks. Only Dicks was not that busy. My wife is looking at me and rolling her eyes. Giving me the "So whats up with crowds Mr. Smarty Economic Pants" look.
ComradeColin writes:
Dryfly,
On Cape Cod I hear stories of people losing their jobs left and right. A lot of stores in Downtown Falmouth that have been in business for years are shutting down. Yet went to the 99 eatery Sunday night and it was packed.
ComradeColin | Homepage | 10.06.08 - 8:02 pm | #
Are the margins killing them? Losing money on each plate but trying to 'make it up on volume'? So head count reduction is the only way to even HOPE to cash flow?
If there is somebody out there in 'operations' who can decipher this - I'd appreciate it.
dryfly writes:
Homework assignment for you all - go to a major mall or shopping district this weekend, report back what you see...
Comrade dryfly,
I did the same thing this past weekend. I went to the mall in McAllen Texas. I saw the same thing: place was packed, people were buying, and the restaurants were full. Just one thing I noticed: 90% of the cars in the parking lot had Mexican tags on them.
Mike in Long Island | 10.06.08 - 8:04 pm | # Wow, that took me back. San Miguels and all.
I have a theory that most of the nation is in denial. Even tho supposedly 60% say were are headed for a depression. Then I doubt if 59% of that 60 even understand what that means to them personally.
Must deal with Credit Default Scams. Must deal with Credit Default Scams.
You can lower interest rates to -10% and it wont fix the 62 Trillion Dollar scam. Buyers and sellers were sophisticated, declare force majeure on the illegal insurance scam. Send everyone involved to jail. Problem solved. Insurance without reserves is/was and always will be a scam.
Congress eliminating an entire class of contracts would invoke the Fifth Amendment.
No it wouldn't, not if they made the subject matter of the contracts illegal, or did it by, say, requiring a tax on it or a regulatory license to possess it that's impossible to pay or acquire. They could easily get it done without TAKING POSSESSION of anything; they could do it by just scrapping the validity of the contracts, meaning that it isn't even property in the first place. Look, dude, it's a creative point you're thinking up, but it's wrong. The takings clause just doesn't work that way. It's a lot narrower than we'd like to acknowledge. It's criminally narrow in modern interpretation.
There's no way takings would prevent that kind of end from being accomplished, through many different means I can think of just off the top of my head.
Mutual funds can't go down, only break even or up.
Cash (CD) is not allowed in retirement accounts.
There seems to be this notion that IRA and 401k contributions can only be in mutual funds, and not in cash. Which is stupid because all of mine are in either outright cash or 3 months CDs.
People just don't know yet...
Although my girlfriend finally gets it: her retirement fund has lost 50% so far. She is working with her parents now. Expect another couple hundred kilobucks out of the market within a day or two.
Do the "office girls" from Tokyo still arrive in chartered 747s to shop there?
xMNer | 10.06.08 - 8:01 pm | #
They put in light rail from MSP to MOA and advertise it at the airport so ANYONE w/ a layover can go there - my son works there and says he can tell when planes are delayed just by the crowd.
It is a major hub for Asia ('great circle' over the top of the world route) so 'yes' we see a lot of Asians. More shop 'the maul' as the dollar collapses.
The weekend is when all the simpletons go to the mall. No surprise that you, your family and the other retards were there. It's not like theres much else to do on the weekend for incurious retards. These are the same retards that voted Bush in '04.
Costco in Irvine was jampacked yesterday. The woman in front of me had to return some items because she didn't have enough money in her ATM was looking around a bit embarrassed while the lady at the counter patted her shoulder, but I don't know if it's saying anything based on just one data point.
Rowen, think about it this way; when a law was enacted making cocaine a schedule whatever drug and its possession illegal, did a bunch of drug dealers sue the government under the takings clause? No.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
Comrade Bagholder dryfly,
It's getting pretty dead here.
This might be the first recession in my 50 plus years of living where flyover was the last to get the memo... we haven't got the memo yet - that was made clear to me last weekend.
"Are the margins killing them? Losing money on each plate but trying to 'make it up on volume'? So head count reduction is the only way to even HOPE to cash flow?"
No, in fact the menu is pricey- but pretty good food. I did notice the cars in the parking lot were high end, instead of the more usual pickup truck and sedan crowd.
"yes and even with all those savings and all that government spending to build infrastructure and boost employment and try to spur demand it still took a decade."
Maybe we don't have a decade to spare. There are bound to be social/political transformational events and changes, both national and global. There would be even without an economic crisis because of technological developments, but such a crisis is an accelerant.
There are no solutions for such an equation, if one could be written. But it can't. Flock of black swans.
Well in No.VA they haven't emailed the populace the notice about the end of the world either. Yesterday I went over an introduced myself to the young couple who bought the foreclosure behind us.
dryfly,
All of that money flowing into the midwest from ag commodities, shale payments, etc.
It will take quite a while for those flows to dry up, meanwhile here in Phoenix, crickets are starting to chirp in a lot of areas, including car dealership, pool builders, housing related bks- all going under fast.
Retail in phoenix is pretty dead- we are looking at a 7 percent drop in yoy sales tax revs last month.
Whaa? writes:
The weekend is when all the simpletons go to the mall. No surprise that you, your family and the other retards were there. It's not like theres much else to do on the weekend for incurious retards. These are the same retards that voted Bush in '04.
Whaa? | 10.06.08 - 8:11 pm | #
Ya and they'll vote McSame in droves if the buttons & bumper stickers I saw are any indication. Hope that cheers you up some...
What was really especially irratating about it was at Dicks I was buying water purifier tabs an ammo. The wife just shaking her head as I explained how the end was nigh upon is. Then we go to the Mall.
In my neck of the woods, everyone is a member of the Obama cult of personality. We are royally and truly screwed with the next election no matter who wins.
experiencing asset deflation? no sht. the deleveraging process has a long way to go. equity markets and housing remain at ludicrous levels. welcome to deflation japanese style. no stopping it
Seriously, by what rationale was a Credit Default Swap ever legal? Can I call my paycheck a Labor Swap and magically make it not income? Credit Default Swaps were insurance contracts without reserves. Scam. Illegal. Go try and sell insurance on anything without reserves.
None of you have a clue as to what it means to actually work for a living. How about placing three tons of re-bar a day, every day? You don't even know what I'm talking about. You are lost. Trying to make a buck off someone elses back, a bunch of parasites. Your day is coming.
None of you have a clue as to what it means to actually work for a living. How about placing three tons of re-bar a day, every day? You don't even know what I'm talking about. You are lost. Trying to make a buck off someone elses back, a bunch of parasites. Your day is coming.
Actually I have done that, along with truck driving, farming, and a cornocopia of construction jobs.
Santa Monica's 3rd street promenade was still hopping Friday night. But, I did notice that the Premium bottles were staying on the shelf more, and teh well was getting hit more.
Bartender was quite happy I was drinking Stoli. Said tips were off, because of it.
Also seemed to me that the younger crowd was noticiably thinner.
Gross is just out for himself. A guy with $800b under control publishing such demand, it is clear that they have problems. Nice spin though. We are all sub prime now after all.
"Congress should enact a FICO score reset to 850 for all Americans" Let us start fresh, same like Wall Street
I got my first concussion at a job peeling potatoes. I was sixteen working ten hours a day for less than 100 a week. You've got a lot to be angry about, we all do. But I'm only white collar because of scholarships and luck.
401K in trouble? Look for an IRA that let's you buy treasuries, FDIC insured CDs -- last I knew you could short futures in an IRA at Interactive Brokers. So once you've got the IRA, you can rollover your 201K. Simple, huh?
I've driven 25 lbs of green vinyl sinkers a day with a Plumb rigging axe. Just because I have a PhD in engineering from Berkeley doesn't mean I don't know how to work my ass off. And I'm this goes for a lot more people on this board.
Thanks - Dicks info. My brother in laws showed me the sights at some of the clubs in Manila. I can only imagine what is was like back when Clark was still around.
ren: I'm with you man. I tell people I supported my wife through college... what I mean is I put myself through college AND supported my wife. Because I was tired of pounding green vinyl sinkers.
My father, God bless his soul, made precision tools for the lunar module. Does that count as work? Took brains and very good hands.
Pavel Chichikov | 10.06.08 - 8:24 pm |
Small world. My grandfather worked on the LEM also - for Grumann...
Take everything these assholes own. Seize it and if they even think about resisting, forcefully drive the butt of your rifle into their face. Seize their homes,cars,pets and the loose change in their pockets.
Then go Hunter Thompson on their asses by beating them, stripping them naked, injecting them with liquid LSD and drop them off in the middle of Wall ST. on a Friday at 12 noon.
Seriously, by what rationale was a Credit Default Swap ever legal? Can I call my paycheck a Labor Swap and magically make it not income? Credit Default Swaps were insurance contracts without reserves. Scam. Illegal. Go try and sell insurance on anything without reserves.
Right--is there any way it would ever happen--that they would cancel them? It is a B.S. concept and illegal to boot. WTF.
"None of you have a clue as to what it means to actually work for a living. How about placing three tons of re-bar a day, every day? You don't even know what I'm talking about. You are lost. Trying to make a buck off someone elses back, a bunch of parasites. Your day is coming."
First of all, I worked for a moving company in the summers going to college, so blow your rebar stacking out your ass.
You want to try to manage an 11 office VPN, with 16 servers and several 100 workstations up and running? How about coding to improve efficiency? You think that's easy?
How about getting a server page at 3:30 am because the damned thing has had a kernel panic? Or phone calls on the weekend after doing 60 hrs Monday-Friday.
Hey just tooling around in the CR archives (cause that's what I do for fun) and lookie here-- awesome quote from January 2007. It'll be satisfying when Bill Gross is one of these amusing-in-hindsight quotes:
"You were talking about the ugly bears. The reality is that we see a lot of ugly bears growing horns and becoming bulls."
Jacob Frenkel, vice chairman of insurer AIG, to Nouriel Roubini, Jan 24, 2007
"Small world. My grandfather worked on the LEM also - for Grumann...
Mike in Long Island | 10.06.08 - 8:27 pm | # "
Gosh, was he also a machinist? My Dad was an IAM shop steward. He was happier working on the LEM and as a steward than I saw him before or since. He was also happy not to be working on fighter aircraft for a change.
blue collar guy writes:
None of you have a clue as to what it means to actually work for a living. How about placing three tons of re-bar a day, every day? You don't even know what I'm talking about. You are lost. Trying to make a buck off someone elses back, a bunch of parasites. Your day is coming.
blue collar guy
What Gross might want to consider is what kind of system is it for investors when the government changes the rules every few days? How does that create 'trust' or 'stability'.
To use his partner's example, suppose I pay for a Big Mac at the first window but am given an apple when I arrive at the second window? Will I visit McDonald's again?
Why would anyone want to invest their money in today's markets when you have two men, Bernanke and Paulsen, able to do as they please with your investment?
I visited Iceland for a week in 2006.
A truly remarkable country and people.
I spent some time today reading about the Icelandic banking situation. It is, in many respects, a true national disaster. Of a scale that few here in the U.S. can comprehend. The hopes of that nation have been destroyed. Their currency has been ruined, much as von Mises would have predicted in his famous passage. The net result is that thier reach for prosperity will be severed. Their meager national savings and GNP have been devalued. And most importantly, their stutus in the EU has been marginalized.
This is how the story ends for smaller nations with hope. It ends with a vicious margin call. It ends with bankruptcy or printing presses. We in the US have no idea how it feels to reach for respectability and come up with nothing.
I hope Iceland recovers. I suspect their failure portends something more ominous for the EU. Something maybe none of us really want to contemplate.
blue collar guy writes:
None of you have a clue as to what it means to actually work for a living.
Ya,ya, ya - been there done that - I'd have LOVED to have had a job as 'easy' as laying rebar - try digging out Bullards & big Cinci's on night shift - had to climb under the Cinci's to shovel the 'chips' out one at a time... hot machining cutting oil dripping on me as I did it - ten hours a night then off to chem engineering classes during the day. Easily moved a tons of chips a night - that was before machining centers came with 'chip removal'... I was their chip removal back then.
But I didn't complain because my best buddy was working the 'kill line' at a meat packing plant - now THAT was bad work. They'd kill a pig (shock to the head) hang it on a hook and gut it... he would then 'run it' via over head trolley (he was the 'pusher') to the line where they started to butcher... He ran mile every night pushing bloody carcasses weighing close to 800-1000 lbs. Football sleds are easy compared to that.
Many here have done shit work. Rebar is good work in comparison.
Why does everyone say 401k's are in trouble?
If you have been a regular visitor to this website, you would have been mostly out of stocks for months, right?
At least that's my situation.
You have no idea what you're talking about. Do you think putting no-job deadbeats in homes they can't afford is easy? Hell, in more rational times it would be illegal! And then we had to sell it off to Wall St banks for fat profits and fees.
And then everyone hates you when the prices go down when you told them they would only go up.
You just don't understand how hard my job is!
Sorry, gotta hop in the Benz. The FBI is on my tail. See, you don't have the FBI on your tail do you???
"Gosh, was he also a machinist? My Dad was an IAM shop steward. He was happier working on the LEM and as a steward than I saw him before or since. He was also happy not to be working on fighter aircraft for a change.
Pavel Chichikov"
Pavel - He was a machinist/mechanic. He described his job as taking the crap that engineers put on paper and making it work. He worked at Grumann prior to WWII all the way up through the 80's when he retired. He passed away 10 years ago this past September. He was happiest talking about working on the Navy Tomcat's and the LEM.
Lowering interest rates does not just reduce interest paid but also interest received. There are millions of savers who will see lower money market and CD rates. Some of these people have limited incomes and will be hurt.
Some people only care about cheap money for the bankers - screw the little people. A transfer of wealth from savers to debtors.
Alright we are impressed by all the hard work you tough guys have done. Now go buy a red convertible or a Harley with loud pipes to compensate for other, smaller things
We need to face facts- the economy as it is currently composed is dead. Saving the banks can't help because there is NO ENGINE FOR RECOVERY.
What, are we going to spend the money we aren't making by not building things?
They are desperate to keep the illusion of rising real estate prices up because short of MEW the economy would have done tanked.
Consumers are tapped out and there's nothing out there that looks like an engine of growth. You can't build an economy on banks lending to each other. You can only build a prolonged collapse.
The really sad thing is we already know this. We tried building an economy on nothing- recall the dotcoms?
The malls here are crowded on the weekends but they're ghost towns on the weekdays. You don't see too many people with shopping bags though. Malls are gonna be really crowded this winter as people look for free heat.
and for those who have not read it, the Icelandic Prime Minister's Address to the nation was stark and filled with the scent of despair and panic.
"There is a very real danger, fellow citizens, that the Icelandic economy, in the worst case, could be sucked with the banks into the whirlpool and the result could be national bankruptcy...."
hey blue collar guy - I spent 17 years working in the coal mines of Africa. I started at the age of 5! My boss would end each working day by beating me around the face and neck with a broken bottle. Then I was laid off, so I switched to cleaning latrines in Zanzibar - the graveyard shift!
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
FYI: blue collar guy is just someone's bad schtick. I would guess it's the newest character for the poster who was doing the Sarah Palin stuff.
A better way to troll is to build the character first, then suck everyone in with an ambush. Best of luck, dude.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 10.06.08 - 8:32 pm | #
Are you kidding me? I live for those posts - I know shit jobs like nobody knows shit jobs. You don't spend almost 35 years in mfg like me (in the Midwest no less) and not know shit work... I'm also smart enough to avoid it like the freaking plague.
But 'shit work'? I'm a connoisseur of the stuff...
BTW the meat packing job was the worst job I had ever heard of or knew of. They don't grow bud good enough to get you through that kind of day...
I read the Iceland Presidents? address to the nation. Well written. They are screwed. Maybe the UN or B gates will buy them olive oil. Norway will be good for handouts.
There used to be a USMC detachment in Iceland. One of their duties was making a line from the bus to the school. The wind can be so bad that the kids were in danger of getting blown away. The marines would pass them down the line to the door. They are in Iraq now.
Because the same den of snakes that has brought us this fine mess also sell and pushes all of the products that go into a 401k. Give a thief your money and he usually isn't ashamed to take it.
Well, some of us just found the site a couple of weeks ago and had to learn to trust. I was "lucky" and liquidated on the "bounce" last Tuesday. Got rid of some VIGRX!
Yes, Master Gross
ZIRP!
Gross wants whats best for Pimco
I have yet to see Bernanke defy Gross.
_
I am telling you, the Nation had better get busy buying what Bill Gross owns, or there's gonna be hell to pay.
Maybe we should just sell the Fed to PIMCO.
Tis but a flesh wound
crybaby pirates all.
Once again: the way to help the people is to help Wall Street. Then everyone will benefit (eventually) (we promise).
Can I haz zirp now?
Come on, people! Help me with my book.
let us not digest earnings, rather let us feast on lowered guidance.
LONG LIVE THE DEFLATION!!
Comrade Bagholders,
Shill Gross is really pissing me off.
CP is trading Shill! Oh, you don't like the price...aw! Eat it dillhole.
Nostrovia,
Really, Gross is talking his book.. BUT... what exactly would deflation look like in the US? Take a look at Katrina and multiply by??? 1000s???
Inflate or die, literally.
For once, I agree with him. This is about the only way to address the problem of frozen ST lending channels. If they don't get unstuck, get ready for some real doomsday scenarios.
So, now Gross is channeling Roubini?
Get yer own blog, Bill, ya copycat.
To the person that was skeptical about "living off the grid" in the last thread:
People in these communities live on a grid, just not on THE grid. Small microeconomies develop where like minded individuals reach a critical mass. There are people who are hooked into the grid on the perhiphery of such communities, generally doctors, dentists, accountants, and government workers. These perhipherals receive steady income from outside grid sources (medical insurance payments, government paychecks, etc.) to feed resources into the microeconomic grid. It's like a big unmonitorable dark spot where the government can't see. Within the community there is a large degree of barter, cash transactions, and neighbors helping neighbors.
What? The first half trillion to you wasn't enough?
--
Fed is getting advice from Crooks and Crooks' agents. What a system!
Jas
I think Gross is concerned about what mw just posted in the prior thread:
HaloScan.com - Comments
MarketWarnings: financial crisis credit crisis: LIBOR, Commercial paper, Brokers, and inter-bank markets
Bill Gross is good at coming up with work for other people.
He reminds me of my Dad yelling "Mow the lawn!" just before he falls asleep in front of the TV.
Gross is pushing bitter pills!
http://tinyurl.com/4eosor
Average Americans know little of the ways of Wall Street nor will they ever, I suppose. Every day, these days, is on-the-job training for yours truly, so how could Jane or John Doe ever understand the complexities of overnight repos or reverses, the selling or buying of protection on corporations via Credit Default Swaps (CDS), or the reasons why some investment banks are saved while others are allowed to fail? They cannot.
Yet we are all supposed to manage our own retirement funds via 401k.
Most overheard comment in the office today: "Don't look at your 401k."
_
At some point catastrophy has to occur to create real change in the way we do things. You cannot inflate your way out of this. Sure, it's gonna hurt. I'd be OK amputating both legs to stave off cancer instead of dying a slow death by doing little if nothing at all.
301k, 201k, 101k, k?
No ask on LIBOR? That is serious.
PIMPCO. Gross is a disgrace.
That 4%+ front end load on his total return fund is a non starter in this environment. Add to that his awful tax efficiency and it's a wonder anyone listens to that tard at all.
The man is a sham.
Gross to Fed: Cut Rates to 1%, Buy Commercial Paper
Whats that that Jas's says again?
.....
--
The same applies to the USG. Never have so few had so much power over so many as in America and India. Hail to the largest democracies.
Jas
Just dropped $100.00 in the mail for CR, best 100 I've spent this year. I encourage all of you to donate, it just makes ya feel good.
Casa
Fed is getting advice from Crooks and Crooks' agents. What a system!
Jas
Opps! Somehow I missed this one on the first scroll thru.
Right on time!
CP Market... liquidity problem, or pricing problem?
shug
40none k
This is getting ridiculous.
Everytime these losers ask for more money instead do another tax rebate.
A $700 billion rebate would have been about $8,000 per family. When the families received it they have deposited it in the bank and then used it to purchase things. Using taxes to make the wealthy and corporations whole is outrageous and bad economics. Let the banks go under. Someone will come along and buy them.
Comrade Bagholders,
How is the Fed pushing on a string going to do any good. FFR is quite irrelevant at this point.
Nostrovia,
johnw writes:
At some point catastrophy has to occur to create real change in the way we do things. You cannot inflate your way out of this. Sure, it's gonna hurt. I'd be OK amputating both legs to stave off cancer instead of dying a slow death by doing little if nothing at all.
Catastrophe? You want catastrophe?
"For a people, the economy - any kind of economy, whether primitive or modern - is the means of survival from day to day. So if you ruin the economy - if you suspend its functioning, even for a few months - you take away the means of survival. Eventually, if enough people do live, the economy will revive in one form or another, but in the meantime people will die: they will starve, because the supply of food has been cut off; they will freeze, because they have no fuel or shelter; they will perish of illness, because they have no medical care. If the economy in question is a modern, technological one, the consequences will be particularly severe, for then the obstacles to restoring it will be greatest. Because a modern economy, like an ecosystem, is a single, interdependent whole, in which each part requires many other parts to keep functioning, its wholesale breakdown will leave people unable to perform the simplest, most essential tasks. Even agriculture - the immediate means of subsistence - is caught up in the oerations of the interdependent machine, and breaks down when it breaks down. Modern agriculture depends on fertilizers to make crops grow, on machines to cultivate the crops, on transportation to carry the produce thousands of miles to the consumers, on fuel to run the means of transportation and the agricultural machinery, and on pesticides and drugs to increase production. If fertilizers, machines, transportation, fuel, pesticides, and drugs are taken away, agricuolture will come to a halt, and people will starve. Also, because of the interdependence of the system, no sector of the economy can be repaired unless many of the other sectors are in good order."
- Jonathan Schell, "The Fate of the Earth"
Maybe Gross is just telegraphing something he already knows is coming.
Lest we forget. Updated 10/01/08:
St. Louis Fed: Series: TOTBORR, Total Borrowings of Depository Institutions from the Federal Reserve
Bill Gross is a total slut.
BondsOfSteel -> I'm going to go with the latter as Misean mentioned above.
...
What's left to cut???????
"Last scene of all,
That ends this strange eventful history, Is second childishness and mere oblivion; Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything"
"How is the Fed pushing on a string going to do any good. FFR is quite irrelevant at this point."
Yes, but lower FFR is probably already discounted, so we will see more pain if they don't. But I expect a little more creativity than a simple rate cut. That probably why we haven't seen the announcement yet - they are trying to construct some scheme for pushing money past the banks, and good schemes take time.
Comrade Bagholder nades,
Nostrovia,
How is the Fed pushing on a string going to do any good. FFR is quite irrelevant at this point.
What's the over/under on the number of months until Bernanke starts up the choppers?
--
"Maybe Gross is just telegraphing something he already knows is coming."
BreakOut ,
He is one of the official leakers. Policy by trial baloons. What a system!
Jas
What's the over/under on the number of months until Bernanke starts up the choppers?
One
Lets see gov't is now guaranteeing $2T Money markets, $5T in F&F. Now Gross wants another $1T guarantee for CP. Why not just guarantee everything. No losses on anything, ever, as long as BB is Fed Chairman.
"What's the over/under on the number of months until Bernanke starts up the choppers?"
What is your definition of start? That little $200B blast last week doesn't qualify?
By my count, this is the second time Gross has used the phrase "benevolent fist of government". I believe he coined the phrase.
10 points to the person who can use it most cleverly in a sentence.
From Roubini:
RGE - Financial and Corporate System is in Cardiac Arrest: The Risk of the Mother of All Bank Runs
Situation Report: So far as I can tell by working the telephones this morning:
LIBOR bid only, no offer.
Commercial paper market shut down, little trading and no issuance.
Corporations have no access to long or short term credit markets -- hence they face massive rollover problems.
Brokers are increasingly not dealing with each other.
Even the inter-bank market is ceasing up.
Fantastic- time to load up on AHR-
with this bailout my Commercial paper will all be guaranteed by the fed.
Fantastic capitalistic opportunity-thanks Bill- I will use the profits to buy booze and sliver for when the collapse shows up!
I guess that my mortgage should soon be reset to 2%!
Loving it!
I getz my bailout!!!
Can I haz cheezeburger?
Someday this war's gonna end...
--
"Lets see gov't is now guaranteeing $2T Money markets, $5T in F&F. Now Gross wants another $1T guarantee for CP. Why not just guarantee everything. No losses on anything, ever, as long as BB is Fed Chairman."
Anonymous,
What part of socializing risk and losses don't the American People understand? What a system!
Jas
Please get your benevolent fist of government out of my [censored].
Comrade Bagholder sm_landlord,
"But I expect a little more creativity than a simple rate cut."
Really. From these asshats? These guys are like the three stooges. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one man.
Just sayin'
Nostrovia,
Sorry that was from a few days ago but still pertinent especially in light of this thread.
People in these communities live on a grid, just not on THE grid. Small microeconomies develop where like minded individuals reach a critical mass.
Most of this stuff just sounds like suburbia, but on some kind of mythical farm.
There are already people living in rural communities and they aren't exactly going to let you run things. That's what non-rural Americans have a problem with. The idea of not getting to be in charge.
Has anyone here actually ever killed a chicken?
FFR has been below 2 for almost a month now.
It is totally irrelevant...
There is nothing they or anyone else, for that matter, can do about no offer in the paper market.
Done and dusted...as the Brits say.
Ciao
MS
So Bill, wheres my free Big Mac.
Has anyone here actually ever killed a chicken?
I once ate a fertilized egg. Does that count?
Comrade Bagholder Nemo,
"benevolent fist of government"
K...
Bill Gross wants to ram the benevolent fist of government up the taxpayers ass.
Nostrovia,
Speed writes:
I have yet to see Bernanke defy Gross.
_
Speed | 10.06.08 - 7:02 pm | #
Bernanke knows a CLM when he sees one - knows enough to avoid them. So buy paper it will be...
anonymous: I couldn't bring myself to kill a dying duckling, but then it turned out that I brought a virus with me from the turkeys and was responsible for the deaths of thousands of his friends.
As Jeffery collapsed into the crumpled pile of blankets, the ball gag fell out of his mouth and he looked up at Big Barney with a grin, "Gawd, Barney, if not for the benevolent fist of government, I'd still be climbing the walls of Le Petite Shrimp piano bar."
Gross is an asshole. He should rot in jail with Paulson and Bernanke.
Comrade Misean;
The fist already there. I would it taken out now, please.
Heck, before long I'll be living in Japan without having to move there or without having to use a virtual reality machine.
Whodathunkit?
--
"Just dropped $100.00 in the mail for CR, best 100 I've spent this year."
Casa de Dolor,
I will match. I would need address from CR to mail the check (I don't do Paypal).
Keep up the good work of blogging, CR.
Jas
Nemo: I have also eaten Balut. It was on a dare, but actually not bad.
Comrade Misean is Dope --
I was hoping for a little more subtlety. Ending with "...you at least should have taken me to dinner first" or somesuch would be good.
Here's the skinny on Gross's vaunted total return fund:
Returns are after federal taxes, fees & loads (info from finra a/o 8/31/08):
1yr: 3.04%
3yr: 1.79%
5yr: 2.69%
10yr: 3.39%
What a sham. And to think, Gross is one of the "better" money (mis)mangers. Seriously. All the old maids buying from treasury direct have outperformed this charlatan. Absent the feds bailout of FNM & FRE Gross's returns would undoubtedly be way worse.
What a sham. The man should ashamed of his egregious fees and poor performance.
"Has anyone here actually ever killed a chicken?
anonymous | 10.06.08 - 7:24 pm | # "
No, but my mother did. She didn't care for it -- farm life or killing chickens. She got the hell out and never looked back.
It was the Depression. They used orange crates for furniture. Didn't have Ikea in those days.
"I'd still be climbing the walls of Le Petite Shrimp piano bar."
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 10.06.08 - 7:27 pm
Wasn't that place the gay bar in Laguna Beach?
Above all, take care of the bondholders. They're the backbone of this country.
---I'm Bill Gross and I approved this message.
Here is my entry:
Seeing the cash drifting down like snow upon the gilded streets of Manhattan, the crowd chased the helicopter back to its launch point; debt slaves, hungry children, born and bred dopes all, prostrated themselves in eager supplication, but the benevolent fist of government was empty.
--
"Gross is an asshole. He should rot in jail with Paulson and Bernanke."
Lars,
It would be like putting Nazis leaders in jail while they were in power.
Jas
Orange crates are a step up from Ikea furniture.
I grow bananas. I think the Fed should buy bananas.
CSC definitely the winning entry so far.
10 points to the person who can use it most cleverly in a sentence.
Nemo | Homepage | 10.06.08 - 7:23 pm | #
For whom does this fist pound! Why it pounds for you my litle citizen. Feel the benvolence, taste the love, and come! I say again Come! Come to the mall and tithe to me.
ewbie: Uh...I dont know....I made it up. I've never even been to Maneuvers or Numbers.
Comrade Bagholder CSC,
That's at least 10 points.
ROFL.
Nostrovia,
Most overheard comment in the office today: "Don't look at your 401k."
Soon to be 101K.
Balut? In the PI? Ate dog there.
To anyone who thinks Gross knows everything, I have read him for years and can recall how PIMCO sent analysts to check out how housing was going to turn out when it went bad. Well, their conclusion was that there would be a correction in prices, not the nuking we're all getting now. And they studied this sucker closely. So don't make yourselves feel better by listening to some big name.
BreakOut writes:
Maybe Gross is just telegraphing something he already knows is coming.
BreakOut | 10.06.08 - 7:15 pm | #
For us little people no doubt.
gasp...you mean, we have to do payroll out of cashflow!
wait...what is cashflow again?
I prefer Lucy's football contract with Charlie Brown to Gross's drive through analogy.
_
401K? Hmmmm mine is up 3.6% for the quarter - not great, not awful.
El-Erian + Roubini = Bill Gross + Profits
"Has anyone here actually ever killed a chicken?"
Chickens, goats, pigs, rabbits, steers. Yup.
Gross is ... gross. Quit socializing the system!
I see three types of financial entities:
1) Net Creditors. Have plenty of capital. But are reluctant to invest it due to near-term shortage of profit-making opportunities, plus rampant government rule-changing. Lack of Creditor Confidence is driving higher interest rates.
2) Solvent Borrowers. Require rolling over credit, but have enough cash flow to manage higher interest rates. Will survive, provided credit conditions do not deteriorate too far.
3) Doomed Borrowers. Require credit on favorable terms -- credit that is no longer available due to creditors' belated recognition of risks. Destined for a hard reboot via bankruptcy.
2 Observations:
First, the political battle is between the Creditors ("No Socialism") and the Doomed Borrowers ("Bail Me Out"), with the Solvent Borrowers providing the swing votes.
Second, Government activity breeds uncertainty which leads to higher interest rates. The more the government meddles with the necessary process of creative destruction, the worse it gets because the Creditors become less comfortable.
One Conclusion:
The Solvent Borrowers should side with the Creditors (upon whom they truly depend), and against the Doomed Borrowers (whose markets they can conquer). If not -- if the nation continues to beg for the Government to "Do Something" -- the Creditors will be spooked even more, and more of the Solvent Borrowers will be Doomed.
aleister perdurabo writes:
Lest we forget. Updated 10/01/08:
St. Louis Fed: Error? cid=122
aleister perdurabo | 10.06.08 - 7:15 pm | #
Moonshot anyone?
That is one scary line.
Nova: In Hawaii. I didn't want to be a typical haole. Manong dared me.
Yep for me. Actually its not as bad as cleaning up goat afterbirth.
"Everytime these losers ask for more money instead do another tax rebate.
A $700 billion rebate would have been about $8,000 per family. When the families received it they have deposited it in the bank and then used it to purchase things"
agree 100%. suspend the payroll tax for a year. let the investment banks fail and guarantee depoists.
So maybe it will be a coordinated rate drop? Europe and the US? Japan can't come to this party.
I guess we turned shit sandwiches into a cafeteria-american style
Comrade Bagholders,
It's all fine and good until the benevolent fist of government pokes an eye out.
Nostrovia,
hello out there--this is starting to sound like Enron raping CA. It seems so coordinated and the rush to get so much money and to merge those that should never merge. Rapes are allowed when the police are paid off.
Nova writes:
Yep for me. Actually its not as bad as cleaning up goat afterbirth.
Nova | 10.06.08 - 7:34 pm | #
Why clean it up - don't the mom goats eat it like cattle? Those are calories that were 'hard earned' - they aren't 'given up' lightly.
Sorry in advance for those about to eat dinner...
"Has anyone here actually ever killed a chicken?
Nope. Watched my dad do it though, and then I had to pluck/clean it. I think his job was easier, and definitely less gross.
if I have lots of cash on hand, isn't deflation a GOOD thing? I guess its bad because people can't pay their debt, and I lose out on my mortgage... but seriously... if wages are stagnant, isn't deflation good?
what do I know.
Woodchuck. My dog didn't follow through.
I killed a prostitute in Siem Reap, Cambodia once. I cannot imagine a chicken being any harder.
The difference is that you should eat the chicken AFTER you kill it.
re: mm as it stands today
Vaguard's California Tax Exempt MM Fund is returning 5.17% tax free to California residents. That is a crazy rate for a tax free MM fund.
deflation in a leveraged economy is a disaster and most of our households and businesses run on leverage.
Don't mess with the Business Cycle...
Friends: I apologize for that last post. Horrible. Luckily my cannabis will be replenished in 30 minutes. Praise Jah.
Comrade Bagholders,
"Has anyone here actually killed a chicken"
Perhaps Bill Gross can get benevolent fist of government to choke a chicken for us.
Nostrovia,
Why clean it up - don't the mom goats eat it like cattle? Those are calories that were 'hard earned' - they aren't 'given up' lightly
Yeah but we had a busload of kids coming to tour the place. Heck, to end my day I mucked out the stable. You have Morgans in there and it is hip boot time.
CSC:
Don't worry, The Little Shrimp closed down years ago. I remember in college some of my female friends would dare each other to go in there and ask a guy to dance, i.e., cut on a pair of guys.
This is interesting: 60,000 sq. ft. single tenant office building in Rancho Cordova, 8.1% cap on actuals. 30% below replacement cost. Tenant is "locked into" all sorts of state federal govt. contracts. Originally configured as multitenant bldg.
MAXIMUS | Helping Government Serve the People |
Nah...
You're much too negative, people! Save my *ss, save your own!
richmond fed lacker "it looks pretty likely tat this is going to be declared a recession" "so far this has been a mil slowdown...."
he doesnt think they need to cut.
Nemo writes:
By my count, this is the second time Gross has used the phrase "benevolent fist of government". I believe he coined the phrase.
10 points to the person who can use it most cleverly in a sentence.
Comrades,
Praise and rejoice the kind and gentle use of the benevolent fist of government by our esteemed Comrades Bernake, Paulson Bush and Gross.
Bill Gross: Which one of your parents was a Mahi-Mahi?
--
" isn't deflation good?"
comrade poor savings account,
It is like asking is fresh air good after living in the most poluted area.
DEFLATION IS GOOD FOR HONEST HARDWORKING PEOPLE AND BAD FOR THE REST.
Jas
"DEFLATION IS GOOD FOR HONEST HARDWORKING PEOPLE AND BAD FOR THE REST."
Well there is the answer, Congress will never allow it!
"...benevolent fist of government..."
In the style of Mussolini?
"Vaguard's California Tax Exempt MM Fund is returning 5.17% tax free to California residents."
Yup, I own some. Just took a big price hit, of course. Tempting to double down, but is the debt good at this point? Do I think people are paying their property tax if they can't make their mortgage payments? I guess we find out after December 10th. I can sure see a lot of tax defaults on the foreclosure maps.
Bill Gross, you ignorant slut!
You proles are happy to give a bankster $700B, if his income is limited to $70M instead of $700M. You sell too cheaply.
Help me out, too.
Gross is to Bernanke like China is to Paulson...... Do as I say and I won't pull the trigger of this gun I have pointed at your head.
DEFLATION IS GOOD FOR HONEST HARDWORKING PEOPLE AND BAD FOR THE REST.
Wait for the job loss - their employers are levered to the eyeballs & delever via headcount reduction - they'll be SCREAMING for return to wage slave status & inflation. It is the way it always goes. It is the way it WILL go.
But you can pine for what never will be - fine with me.
Hey you Jas Jain-you come to forest, I teach you meaning of levity. Serious man.
Any predictions for Christmas?
Santa is hooked on HELOC. And the elves got no cash.
deflation is a symptom of some really bad underlying fundamentals that usually hurts the good honest hard working people - sometimes gets them first
"Any predictions for Christmas?"
More Jingle Mail?
--
Hey Bill Gross,
We will be happy to toast you and then roast you. That is what we like to do to Crooks.
Jas
"Any predictions for Christmas?"
More Jingle Mail?
Funny as Hell!
Capitalism is most effective at the interface between Adam Smith's invisible hand and the benevolent fist of government.
I predict a splendiferous Xmas for me.
Now for hte rest of you- well- it will be interesting.
I bet BB wins with inflation.
That St. Louis Fed link tells the tale. Nearly $2 trillion in bad debt inflated away. Wowser.
Who said you can't print money here in the good ol' USA?
Someday this war's gonna end...
whoops, that's how Gross used it, I withdraw!
There once was a man nicknamed Benny
Who had one valent fist too many
His pals Bill and Hank
Gave all us a hard spank
On our Fred and our Dow and our Fannie.
For Christmas there will be a lot of home heating oil vouchers, courtesy of the benevolent fist of government. The goobers just haven't announced it yet - not cold enough.
Gross == Mozilo
Disgraceful shameless crook.
Haiku:
The benevolent
fist of government destroys
nations of freedom
Or, alternatively:
The benevolent
fist of government can't beat
the Invisible Hand.
There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.
There ain't no such thing as a benevolent fist, either.
Defltion? Inflation?
We are now in deflation and, except for that illusionary commodities bubble, have been for some time. When it flips to inflation, which it must at some point for the reasons dryfly indicates, that will be the 'tell'. Time.
"I bet BB wins with inflation."
Citizen AllenM,
You bet wrong. I am betting 100 with my friends (poor suckers).
Jas
Looks like Mr. Gross got part of his wish fulfilled. There are reports that the Fed is organizing a "stealth cut" by paying interest on reserves and allowing rates to drop below target.
Fed Sets Floor Below Rate Target, Engineering `Stealth' Cut - Bloomberg.com
This benevolent fist...does it have "LOVE" or "HATE" tattooed on its knuckles? It makes a big difference.
Deflation is a killer to the super rich...they will do everything in their power to prevent it. For the poor deflation means nothing.
Homework assignment for you all - go to a major mall or shopping district this weekend, report back what you see...
I hadn't done that in a while & did it last weekend - place was packed, restaurants were packed (multiple hour waiting lists for expensive shitty food theme restaurants)... blew my mind.
This was in the Twin Cities - Midwest - we aren't talking high end Cali or NYC.
My wife (who is also aware of the economy) and I were jaw dropping surprised.
What do YOU see?
For the poor deflation means nothing.
crispy& cole | Homepage | 10.06.08 - 7:52 pm | #
Until they lose work - then it means EVERYTHING.
Deflation first, followed by a heaping spoon of inflation. Somewhere in between, move to Sweden.
crispy: "For the poor deflation means nothing."
Got Bread Lines?
Ah Jas,
You have your chance right now to sell those old maids for a nice big profit- a trillion more are on the way this month alone!
Deflation in terms of asset bubbles- yes- but wait until the rest of the world gets the amount of printing implied by all of these bailouts!!!
Dry and I will win, just not today.
Gotta keep your eye on the longer term implications!
Someday this war's gonna end...
sm_landlord: "Vaguard's California Tax Exempt MM Fund...Yup, I own some. Just took a big price hit, of course."
As far as I know (as of today) the MM fund is still $1 a share...they haven't broken the buck, but with state of tax revenues in today's California municipalities...it pays to be vigilant.
sm_landlord:"Tempting to double down, but is the debt good at this point?"
See above about being vigilant. Still waiting to see if Vanguard will join the MM guarantee program (Oct 8 deadline)...
No one expects the benevolent fist of government.
Local Chili's restaurant last Friday at 12 noon: more empty tables than full.
im betting a very long deflationary period. japan pushed debt to highest absolute level in the history of the industrilaized world ( and over 9% of gdp - we are at about4%) in an attempt to support agregate demand and end deflation and it took them over 10 years to get core cpi above 0 - and their core includes energy.
Hank Paulson's Mom:
Oopsie, I was talking about VCAIX. That's the intermediate term Cali tax free fund. Sorry I mis-read your question.
"Homework assignment for you all - go to a major mall or shopping district this weekend, report back what you see..."
Forget the freaking shopping mall...head over to the Port of Los Angeles and see the lack of frenzy in loading and unloading the shipping containers. I was in the area Friday and Monday, and it looked slower than I have ever seen it before. Anecdotal Leading Economic Indicator (ALEI)...
Just listened to the podcast from the last thread.
This might be a stupid question, but why can't the government just cancel all of the credit default swaps?
What will cause the deflation to stop and the inflation to begin?
Just printing after deleveraging?
Jas Jain- I don't know if your right or wrong, but I think your heart is in the right place. I love you, man.
fed bollard on wire - doesnt think rate cut is right tool. policy now very accomodative.
why can't the government just cancel all of the credit default swaps?
Takings Clause.
Anonymous writes:
Just listened to the podcast from the last thread.
This might be a stupid question, but why can't the government just cancel all of the credit default swaps?
im long protection and making money. what happens to my position?
"im betting a very long deflationary period. japan pushed debt to highest absolute level in the history of the industrilaized world ( and over 9% of gdp - we are at about4%.."
But the Japanese have personal savings, no?
Actually they could use the 700b to buy commercial paper. Better than buying toxic mtges/derivatives.
rowen:
Takings clause doesn't apply to the invalidation of a form of contract, otherwise there would be a 5th amendment case every time a contract was invalidated for public policy reasons (A LOT).
go to the mall in 6 months
the 'crowded mall' is a lagging indicator
just wait, the mall will suffer its due soon enough
To the tune of "Jingle Bells" (improvements welcome)
We've got too many debts,
there's no way we can pay,
in arrears we go,
foreclosure on the way!
Bankers' phones we ring,
But no workout in sight,
Time to say goodbye and fling
The keys back - oh this bites!
Jingle mail, jingle mail,
jingle all the way!
It hurts like hell to lose our home,
But there is no other way!
Jingle mail, jingle mail,
jingle all the way!
It hurts like hell to lose our home,
But there is no other way!
Spiv's comment link from last thread.
Insightful analysis.
http://us1.institutionalriskanal...ory.asp? tag=240
Nuts is for squirrils. Furry fuzzy little rodent cousins.
So, guess the name of the only new high on the NYSE today...Diamond Foods!!
Gotta love the irony.
dryfly: That would be the Mall of America, I suppose?
Do the "office girls" from Tokyo still arrive in chartered 747s to shop there?
Who are some of the companies who have made money on the credit default swaps?
Pavel Chichikov
yes and even with all those savings and all that government spending to build infrastructure and boost employment and try to spur demand it still took a decade. we dont hvae huge savings pool so it may take even longer for househld balance sheets to improve and spending to resume.
Was it part of the original Paulson plan was that he could act without regard to contract law. It may be that he could have destroyed the CDSs. Some would win; some would lose -- paper profits/losses.
Comrade Bagholders,
Well I for one am happy the Fallout Plan fixed everything.
Nostrovia,
better question: what are the companies that didn't make money on CDS
Dryfly,
On Cape Cod I hear stories of people losing their jobs left and right. A lot of stores in Downtown Falmouth that have been in business for years are shutting down. Yet went to the 99 eatery Sunday night and it was packed.
Speed writes:
Local Chili's restaurant last Friday at 12 noon: more empty tables than full.
Speed | 10.06.08 - 7:55 pm | #
That is what I expected to see - empty tables - told my family there might be a line but no wait for an 8PM dinner at Cheesecake Factory (shitty theme restaurant my daughter likes) in a 'recession'... went there and the crowd was out into the parking lot - 2 hr wait! PF Changs next door the same... I wouldn't wait 10 minutes for that crap... So my DW said lets go to MOA and eat at DIL's ex-employer [she knew the staff] they got us in in about 45min... another theme restaurant but at least we got good service 'cause they knew us.
BTW MOA was packed right up to closing - my son works there and didn't get out until past midnight.
I am still trying to digest what I saw & reconcile w/ the news & numbers I see elsewhere... are we all in an echo chamber?
Seb where are you when we need you!
"Nova writes:
Balut? In the PI? Ate dog there."
That right there makes me shudder - the balut not the dog...
I had horse in the Philippines - was pretty tasty - supposedly was a race horse - must have been all the 'roids that made it tender or something...
I can still hear the guys walking around the streets "balut, balut" kind of like the baseball park equivalent of "beer here"...
Last month I challenged the shill Bill Gross to a steel cage match so that he would have to earn a chance to take all of my money. I have yet to get a reply. Mr. Gross is beyond the pale in asking for rate cuts and government buying of trouble assets because he bet the house on exactly that happening. I am sure PIMCO advisor Alan Greenspan assured Mr. Gross he was "too big to fail". That guy is a loser.
Comrade Dope Misean
Methinks it DID solve SOME people's problems.
See also, BFNYC (Author: Jain, Jas)
Others, not so much. (Wish I could do the Borat voice with that.)
Takings clause doesn't apply to the invalidation of a form of contract, otherwise there would be a 5th amendment case every time a contract was invalidated for public policy reasons (A LOT).
You're right, a judicial avoiding or non-enforcement of a contract between two privates for public policy reasons doesn't invoke the Fifth Amendment.
Congress eliminating an entire class of contracts would invoke the Fifth Amendment.
crispy& cole writes:
Deflation is a killer to the super rich...they will do everything in their power to prevent it. For the poor deflation means nothing.
Deflation is a killer for anyone in debt, including the US. It's either inflate or collapse. I'm hoping for the former but very concerned about the possibility of the latter.
I killed a prostitute in Siem Reap, Cambodia once. I cannot imagine a chicken being any harder.
The difference is that you should eat the chicken AFTER you kill it.
See, now why did you go and retract that? We were finally getting to the point where we could sit around the CR thread, hold hands, and relate our darkest moments while feeling the loving support of our fellow dejected travellers.
Now I have to keep that story of the mule, the sorority girl, three rolls of ducttape and a bag of rohypnol-laced gummy worms all to myself.
Dryfly, It is weird isn't it? We were at the mall, Kohls, and Dicks. Only Dicks was not that busy. My wife is looking at me and rolling her eyes. Giving me the "So whats up with crowds Mr. Smarty Economic Pants" look.
ComradeColin writes:
Dryfly,
On Cape Cod I hear stories of people losing their jobs left and right. A lot of stores in Downtown Falmouth that have been in business for years are shutting down. Yet went to the 99 eatery Sunday night and it was packed.
ComradeColin | Homepage | 10.06.08 - 8:02 pm | #
Are the margins killing them? Losing money on each plate but trying to 'make it up on volume'? So head count reduction is the only way to even HOPE to cash flow?
If there is somebody out there in 'operations' who can decipher this - I'd appreciate it.
Constitutional arguments about what the Fed/Treasury can do?
How quaint.
Deflation is a killer to the super rich...they will do everything in their power to prevent it. For the poor deflation means nothing.
So true . . . as in the immortal words of Bob Dylan:
When you ain't got nothin', you got nothin' to lose.
im long protection and making money. what happens to my position?
It's gone, but is that worse than what is happening right now and what will happen in the future?
again dryfly,
malls are a lagging indicator, they will suffer their due soon enough
dryfly writes:
Homework assignment for you all - go to a major mall or shopping district this weekend, report back what you see...
Comrade dryfly,
I did the same thing this past weekend. I went to the mall in McAllen Texas. I saw the same thing: place was packed, people were buying, and the restaurants were full. Just one thing I noticed: 90% of the cars in the parking lot had Mexican tags on them.
better question: what are the companies that didn't make money on CDS
All gone because mostly paid out in bonuses?
Asian Markets
Anonymous writes:
im long protection and making money. what happens to my position?
It's gone, but is that worse than what is happening right now and what will happen in the future?
if it fixes the problem im happy to take the loss and fight another day.
Mike in Long Island | 10.06.08 - 8:04 pm | # Wow, that took me back. San Miguels and all.
I have a theory that most of the nation is in denial. Even tho supposedly 60% say were are headed for a depression. Then I doubt if 59% of that 60 even understand what that means to them personally.
Or they just can't stop.
Comrade Bagholder dryfly,
It's getting pretty dead here. Chilis was dead Friday night, even with the Penant race on and both LA teams in the playoffs.
Office depot dead, with huge sale going on. BB and Fry's slow as hell.
Mom and pops shuttering. My favorite comp parts store, PC Club, chapter 7'd in July.
Nostrovia,
Must deal with Credit Default Scams. Must deal with Credit Default Scams.
You can lower interest rates to -10% and it wont fix the 62 Trillion Dollar scam. Buyers and sellers were sophisticated, declare force majeure on the illegal insurance scam. Send everyone involved to jail. Problem solved. Insurance without reserves is/was and always will be a scam.
Christmas will drain the backwash from the bottle. Come January, grasshoppers chirping.
Congress eliminating an entire class of contracts would invoke the Fifth Amendment.
No it wouldn't, not if they made the subject matter of the contracts illegal, or did it by, say, requiring a tax on it or a regulatory license to possess it that's impossible to pay or acquire. They could easily get it done without TAKING POSSESSION of anything; they could do it by just scrapping the validity of the contracts, meaning that it isn't even property in the first place. Look, dude, it's a creative point you're thinking up, but it's wrong. The takings clause just doesn't work that way. It's a lot narrower than we'd like to acknowledge. It's criminally narrow in modern interpretation.
There's no way takings would prevent that kind of end from being accomplished, through many different means I can think of just off the top of my head.
dryfly:
People aren't yet aware there is a problem.
In the last week, I have had people tell me:
There seems to be this notion that IRA and 401k contributions can only be in mutual funds, and not in cash. Which is stupid because all of mine are in either outright cash or 3 months CDs.
People just don't know yet...
Although my girlfriend finally gets it: her retirement fund has lost 50% so far. She is working with her parents now. Expect another couple hundred kilobucks out of the market within a day or two.
Do the "office girls" from Tokyo still arrive in chartered 747s to shop there?
xMNer | 10.06.08 - 8:01 pm | #
They put in light rail from MSP to MOA and advertise it at the airport so ANYONE w/ a layover can go there - my son works there and says he can tell when planes are delayed just by the crowd.
It is a major hub for Asia ('great circle' over the top of the world route) so 'yes' we see a lot of Asians. More shop 'the maul' as the dollar collapses.
The weekend is when all the simpletons go to the mall. No surprise that you, your family and the other retards were there. It's not like theres much else to do on the weekend for incurious retards. These are the same retards that voted Bush in '04.
I only eat out 2-3 times a year so youse guys are on your own.
I do need long pants for winter. Got a retired friend that works at a local Kohls. He's pretty astute.
Costco in Irvine was jampacked yesterday. The woman in front of me had to return some items because she didn't have enough money in her ATM was looking around a bit embarrassed while the lady at the counter patted her shoulder, but I don't know if it's saying anything based on just one data point.
Rowen, think about it this way; when a law was enacted making cocaine a schedule whatever drug and its possession illegal, did a bunch of drug dealers sue the government under the takings clause? No.
ikkei at 9:04 down 273
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
Comrade Bagholder dryfly,
It's getting pretty dead here.
This might be the first recession in my 50 plus years of living where flyover was the last to get the memo... we haven't got the memo yet - that was made clear to me last weekend.
Whaa?, how would you know about the simpletons at the mall on weekends? First-hand experience?
I'm the iron fist of government and I'm here to help you.
"Are the margins killing them? Losing money on each plate but trying to 'make it up on volume'? So head count reduction is the only way to even HOPE to cash flow?"
No, in fact the menu is pricey- but pretty good food. I did notice the cars in the parking lot were high end, instead of the more usual pickup truck and sedan crowd.
"yes and even with all those savings and all that government spending to build infrastructure and boost employment and try to spur demand it still took a decade."
Maybe we don't have a decade to spare. There are bound to be social/political transformational events and changes, both national and global. There would be even without an economic crisis because of technological developments, but such a crisis is an accelerant.
There are no solutions for such an equation, if one could be written. But it can't. Flock of black swans.
Should be interesting, hopefully not terrifying.
Well in No.VA they haven't emailed the populace the notice about the end of the world either. Yesterday I went over an introduced myself to the young couple who bought the foreclosure behind us.
dryfly,
All of that money flowing into the midwest from ag commodities, shale payments, etc.
It will take quite a while for those flows to dry up, meanwhile here in Phoenix, crickets are starting to chirp in a lot of areas, including car dealership, pool builders, housing related bks- all going under fast.
Retail in phoenix is pretty dead- we are looking at a 7 percent drop in yoy sales tax revs last month.
Drop.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Whaa? writes:
The weekend is when all the simpletons go to the mall. No surprise that you, your family and the other retards were there. It's not like theres much else to do on the weekend for incurious retards. These are the same retards that voted Bush in '04.
Whaa? | 10.06.08 - 8:11 pm | #
Ya and they'll vote McSame in droves if the buttons & bumper stickers I saw are any indication. Hope that cheers you up some...
My story for today. I had a check, a certified bank check written off Gibraltar out of Coral Gables. I had to deposit it to get my money, all 20K
5,000 one day hold
4999.00 ten day hold
I'll get the rest on Oct. 20.
Who gets the intersest on the remainder?
What was really especially irratating about it was at Dicks I was buying water purifier tabs an ammo. The wife just shaking her head as I explained how the end was nigh upon is. Then we go to the Mall.
dryfly:
In my neck of the woods, everyone is a member of the Obama cult of personality. We are royally and truly screwed with the next election no matter who wins.
"Or they just can't stop."
How could they stop? Societies don't usually stop on a dime, unless there's some kind of catastrophe that stops them. Aztecs. Incas. 1945 Germans.
Lawyerliz, I'm not funny, but I love you...We really need to hook up for drinks and squirrels.
experiencing asset deflation? no sht. the deleveraging process has a long way to go. equity markets and housing remain at ludicrous levels. welcome to deflation japanese style. no stopping it
Kristina,
Next time have them wire it to your account.
Headline should read:
"Cut Rates to 1%, Buy Commercial Paper, AND Give Away Money to Underwater Homeowners"
NOva,
Any good deals on ammo at Dicks?
PS When I was in PI 2 yrs ago I was getting San Mig's for $1 in bars and $.25 from the local markets...
I want my damn free pony!
Ross, that was NOT an optio
Seriously, by what rationale was a Credit Default Swap ever legal? Can I call my paycheck a Labor Swap and magically make it not income? Credit Default Swaps were insurance contracts without reserves. Scam. Illegal. Go try and sell insurance on anything without reserves.
Winston writes:
"I want my damn free pony!"
You're not Winston Smith.
None of you have a clue as to what it means to actually work for a living. How about placing three tons of re-bar a day, every day? You don't even know what I'm talking about. You are lost. Trying to make a buck off someone elses back, a bunch of parasites. Your day is coming.
He can Mcblow me
Mike in Long Island | 10.06.08 - 8:20 pm
Shotgun ammo is on sale but not anything worth going out of your way for.
I was in PI when Clark Airbase still was around and Olongapo and Subic City rocked 24 x 7
The bloodbath continues....Nik down, ASX down,etc...
None of you have a clue as to what it means to actually work for a living. How about placing three tons of re-bar a day, every day? You don't even know what I'm talking about. You are lost. Trying to make a buck off someone elses back, a bunch of parasites. Your day is coming.
Actually I have done that, along with truck driving, farming, and a cornocopia of construction jobs.
It was the main reason I went to graduate school.
Comrade Bagholder dryfly,
Santa Monica's 3rd street promenade was still hopping Friday night. But, I did notice that the Premium bottles were staying on the shelf more, and teh well was getting hit more.
Bartender was quite happy I was drinking Stoli. Said tips were off, because of it.
Also seemed to me that the younger crowd was noticiably thinner.
Nostrovia,
Nikkei 225 tumbles almost 4% to 10,049.02
Gross is just out for himself. A guy with $800b under control publishing such demand, it is clear that they have problems. Nice spin though. We are all sub prime now after all.
"Congress should enact a FICO score reset to 850 for all Americans" Let us start fresh, same like Wall Street
ikkei breaks 10000
down 476
blue collar guy | 10.06.08 - 8:21 pm
You said the same thing on the last thread. Get over it or learn to drive equipment.
"None of you have a clue as to what it means to actually work for a living. How about placing three tons of re-bar a day, every day?"
My father, God bless his soul, made precision tools for the lunar module. Does that count as work? Took brains and very good hands.
blue collar guy,
I got my first concussion at a job peeling potatoes. I was sixteen working ten hours a day for less than 100 a week. You've got a lot to be angry about, we all do. But I'm only white collar because of scholarships and luck.
401K in trouble? Look for an IRA that let's you buy treasuries, FDIC insured CDs -- last I knew you could short futures in an IRA at Interactive Brokers. So once you've got the IRA, you can rollover your 201K. Simple, huh?
blue collar, stfu. Seriously.
I've driven 25 lbs of green vinyl sinkers a day with a Plumb rigging axe. Just because I have a PhD in engineering from Berkeley doesn't mean I don't know how to work my ass off. And I'm this goes for a lot more people on this board.
Goldbrick- what do you do now? Make money off someone else?
Nova,
Thanks - Dicks info. My brother in laws showed me the sights at some of the clubs in Manila. I can only imagine what is was like back when Clark was still around.
Nikkei now under 10,000 also!!!!!
You said the same thing on the last thread. Get over it or learn to drive equipment.
He's just mad because the market for rebar monkeys is drying up fast.
Misean. This is been noticable since summer. The crowd had definetly grown older with noticably less younger people.
"I've driven 25 lbs of green vinyl sinkers a day with a Plumb rigging axe." Uffda!
Nikkei follows DOW. Just crossed below 10,000.
ren: I'm with you man. I tell people I supported my wife through college... what I mean is I put myself through college AND supported my wife. Because I was tired of pounding green vinyl sinkers.
blue collar - give me a break...just because many of us here can read a book does not make us bad, now go vote for Palin!
My father, God bless his soul, made precision tools for the lunar module. Does that count as work? Took brains and very good hands.
Pavel Chichikov | 10.06.08 - 8:24 pm |
Small world. My grandfather worked on the LEM also - for Grumann...
Sayonara.....
Ciao
MS
ikkei blew past the Dow down 534
at 9939
I was AFL-CIO almost. Then my partner OD'ed on the job and they fired me.
Take everything these assholes own. Seize it and if they even think about resisting, forcefully drive the butt of your rifle into their face. Seize their homes,cars,pets and the loose change in their pockets.
Then go Hunter Thompson on their asses by beating them, stripping them naked, injecting them with liquid LSD and drop them off in the middle of Wall ST. on a Friday at 12 noon.
Seriously, by what rationale was a Credit Default Swap ever legal? Can I call my paycheck a Labor Swap and magically make it not income? Credit Default Swaps were insurance contracts without reserves. Scam. Illegal. Go try and sell insurance on anything without reserves.
Right--is there any way it would ever happen--that they would cancel them? It is a B.S. concept and illegal to boot. WTF.
The benevolent fist of the government stroking Bill passionately.
Whereismyretirement: I answered your dehydrator Q in the other thread.
And my cannabis has been replenished. My first bong rip is for Tanta. I dirty the water for you, my love.
Manilla was great. Actually Thailand as the war wound down was kick ass.
Let's not start a class war...we are all in this together folks...
Comrade Bagholder blue collar guy,
"None of you have a clue as to what it means to actually work for a living. How about placing three tons of re-bar a day, every day? You don't even know what I'm talking about. You are lost. Trying to make a buck off someone elses back, a bunch of parasites. Your day is coming."
First of all, I worked for a moving company in the summers going to college, so blow your rebar stacking out your ass.
You want to try to manage an 11 office VPN, with 16 servers and several 100 workstations up and running? How about coding to improve efficiency? You think that's easy?
How about getting a server page at 3:30 am because the damned thing has had a kernel panic? Or phone calls on the weekend after doing 60 hrs Monday-Friday.
Nostrovia,
Hey just tooling around in the CR archives (cause that's what I do for fun) and lookie here-- awesome quote from January 2007. It'll be satisfying when Bill Gross is one of these amusing-in-hindsight quotes:
"You were talking about the ugly bears. The reality is that we see a lot of ugly bears growing horns and becoming bulls."
Jacob Frenkel, vice chairman of insurer AIG, to Nouriel Roubini, Jan 24, 2007
PTRAX should be a thirty dollar fund. That's what that "AAA" paper is worth in this enviroment.
"Small world. My grandfather worked on the LEM also - for Grumann...
Mike in Long Island | 10.06.08 - 8:27 pm | # "
Gosh, was he also a machinist? My Dad was an IAM shop steward. He was happier working on the LEM and as a steward than I saw him before or since. He was also happy not to be working on fighter aircraft for a change.
WORK?
Maynard G. Krebs
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 10.06.08 - 8:30 pm |
They were late? I thought 4:30 was the magic moment
CSC, I love you,..
blue collar guy writes:
None of you have a clue as to what it means to actually work for a living. How about placing three tons of re-bar a day, every day? You don't even know what I'm talking about. You are lost. Trying to make a buck off someone elses back, a bunch of parasites. Your day is coming.
blue collar guy
FYI: blue collar guy is just someone's bad schtick. I would guess it's the newest character for the poster who was doing the Sarah Palin stuff.
A better way to troll is to build the character first, then suck everyone in with an ambush. Best of luck, dude.
What Gross might want to consider is what kind of system is it for investors when the government changes the rules every few days? How does that create 'trust' or 'stability'.
To use his partner's example, suppose I pay for a Big Mac at the first window but am given an apple when I arrive at the second window? Will I visit McDonald's again?
Why would anyone want to invest their money in today's markets when you have two men, Bernanke and Paulsen, able to do as they please with your investment?
ooops
meant to say...
that's just MS goading you guys..
ya got us.
anyone have any info. on whatever happened to tanta??
did the shilling for the industry take it's toll??
Ciao
MS
i wonder if they're so panicked in tokyo that they're planning on shutting the market down for an hour like they have been doing lately...
Deutschbag, you are mistaken, there are people here that work for a living
I visited Iceland for a week in 2006.
A truly remarkable country and people.
I spent some time today reading about the Icelandic banking situation. It is, in many respects, a true national disaster. Of a scale that few here in the U.S. can comprehend. The hopes of that nation have been destroyed. Their currency has been ruined, much as von Mises would have predicted in his famous passage. The net result is that thier reach for prosperity will be severed. Their meager national savings and GNP have been devalued. And most importantly, their stutus in the EU has been marginalized.
This is how the story ends for smaller nations with hope. It ends with a vicious margin call. It ends with bankruptcy or printing presses. We in the US have no idea how it feels to reach for respectability and come up with nothing.
I hope Iceland recovers. I suspect their failure portends something more ominous for the EU. Something maybe none of us really want to contemplate.
Comrade Kristina: Thank you. I love you too, sister.
Nova: "The guy" had to bump it to 5. He is very considerate; most dealers would just come late.
blue collar guy writes:
None of you have a clue as to what it means to actually work for a living.
Ya,ya, ya - been there done that - I'd have LOVED to have had a job as 'easy' as laying rebar - try digging out Bullards & big Cinci's on night shift - had to climb under the Cinci's to shovel the 'chips' out one at a time... hot machining cutting oil dripping on me as I did it - ten hours a night then off to chem engineering classes during the day. Easily moved a tons of chips a night - that was before machining centers came with 'chip removal'... I was their chip removal back then.
But I didn't complain because my best buddy was working the 'kill line' at a meat packing plant - now THAT was bad work. They'd kill a pig (shock to the head) hang it on a hook and gut it... he would then 'run it' via over head trolley (he was the 'pusher') to the line where they started to butcher... He ran mile every night pushing bloody carcasses weighing close to 800-1000 lbs. Football sleds are easy compared to that.
Many here have done shit work. Rebar is good work in comparison.
Re: canceling swaps--found this:
Daily Kos: Solution: Cancel all Credit Default Swaps
This just in:
The FED will also be buying used ponies.
/that is all
Why does everyone say 401k's are in trouble?
If you have been a regular visitor to this website, you would have been mostly out of stocks for months, right?
At least that's my situation.
Blue Collar Guy,
You have no idea what you're talking about. Do you think putting no-job deadbeats in homes they can't afford is easy? Hell, in more rational times it would be illegal! And then we had to sell it off to Wall St banks for fat profits and fees.
And then everyone hates you when the prices go down when you told them they would only go up.
You just don't understand how hard my job is!
Sorry, gotta hop in the Benz. The FBI is on my tail. See, you don't have the FBI on your tail do you???
Count yourself lucky. Suckers.
hey blue collar guy - ever worked in a snack bar in a high security psychiatric prison?
"Gosh, was he also a machinist? My Dad was an IAM shop steward. He was happier working on the LEM and as a steward than I saw him before or since. He was also happy not to be working on fighter aircraft for a change.
Pavel Chichikov"
Pavel - He was a machinist/mechanic. He described his job as taking the crap that engineers put on paper and making it work. He worked at Grumann prior to WWII all the way up through the 80's when he retired. He passed away 10 years ago this past September. He was happiest talking about working on the Navy Tomcat's and the LEM.
I will repeat myself.
Lowering interest rates does not just reduce interest paid but also interest received. There are millions of savers who will see lower money market and CD rates. Some of these people have limited incomes and will be hurt.
Some people only care about cheap money for the bankers - screw the little people. A transfer of wealth from savers to debtors.
/rant
Jim
Alright we are impressed by all the hard work you tough guys have done. Now go buy a red convertible or a Harley with loud pipes to compensate for other, smaller things
Thanks CSC, we have to stick together...When all else fails, we got weed/
DB-
Nice try....
And what do YOU do for a living hmmmmmm?
Ciao
MS
We need to face facts- the economy as it is currently composed is dead. Saving the banks can't help because there is NO ENGINE FOR RECOVERY.
What, are we going to spend the money we aren't making by not building things?
They are desperate to keep the illusion of rising real estate prices up because short of MEW the economy would have done tanked.
Consumers are tapped out and there's nothing out there that looks like an engine of growth. You can't build an economy on banks lending to each other. You can only build a prolonged collapse.
The really sad thing is we already know this. We tried building an economy on nothing- recall the dotcoms?
I think I found our ponies. Not what I was expecting...
Metal and Magic
The malls here are crowded on the weekends but they're ghost towns on the weekdays. You don't see too many people with shopping bags though. Malls are gonna be really crowded this winter as people look for free heat.
BrianTX@SD
Best troll response thus far. 1 million imaginary points, to be paid off through an AIG credit default swap.
"Why does everyone say 401k's are in trouble?"
there are still plenty of schlubs who have majorities in stuff like FMAGX, VFINX, DODGX, VIGRX.
Comrade Kristina: I also have extra djembe drums. Weed and drums are all ya really need.
and for those who have not read it, the Icelandic Prime Minister's Address to the nation was stark and filled with the scent of despair and panic.
"There is a very real danger, fellow citizens, that the Icelandic economy, in the worst case, could be sucked with the banks into the whirlpool and the result could be national bankruptcy...."
Icelandic Prime Minister Geir Haarde warns nation of bankruptcy - Times Online
Jas Jain writes:
Fed is getting advice from Crooks and Crooks' agents. What a system!
Jas
What makes you think Benny doesn't have two passports?
me...
I try to give ya a hard time.
in between tryin to piggy back your trades, ya supa-star.
hey blue collar guy - I spent 17 years working in the coal mines of Africa. I started at the age of 5! My boss would end each working day by beating me around the face and neck with a broken bottle. Then I was laid off, so I switched to cleaning latrines in Zanzibar - the graveyard shift!
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
FYI: blue collar guy is just someone's bad schtick. I would guess it's the newest character for the poster who was doing the Sarah Palin stuff.
A better way to troll is to build the character first, then suck everyone in with an ambush. Best of luck, dude.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 10.06.08 - 8:32 pm | #
Are you kidding me? I live for those posts - I know shit jobs like nobody knows shit jobs. You don't spend almost 35 years in mfg like me (in the Midwest no less) and not know shit work... I'm also smart enough to avoid it like the freaking plague.
But 'shit work'? I'm a connoisseur of the stuff...
BTW the meat packing job was the worst job I had ever heard of or knew of. They don't grow bud good enough to get you through that kind of day...
there are still plenty of schlubs who have majorities in stuff like FMAGX, VFINX, DODGX, VIGRX.
I have my entire life savings in the CRVIX. It's done me well so far.
As we type a bank is dying somewhere right now.
I read the Iceland Presidents? address to the nation. Well written. They are screwed. Maybe the UN or B gates will buy them olive oil. Norway will be good for handouts.
There used to be a USMC detachment in Iceland. One of their duties was making a line from the bus to the school. The wind can be so bad that the kids were in danger of getting blown away. The marines would pass them down the line to the door. They are in Iraq now.
"Why does everyone say 401k's are in trouble?"
Because the same den of snakes that has brought us this fine mess also sell and pushes all of the products that go into a 401k. Give a thief your money and he usually isn't ashamed to take it.
Well, some of us just found the site a couple of weeks ago and had to learn to trust. I was "lucky" and liquidated on the "bounce" last Tuesday. Got rid of some VIGRX!
I thought it was you who said I didn't know anything..
Ciao
MS
Approving the TARP without cutting the feds fund rate 100bps is sort of like saving sex for old age.