Daily Show Moment of Zen: Debt Clock
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 10/08/2008 - 4:34pm (442 comments)
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emo?
very funny
"Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere,
diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies."
We haven't corrupted CR's thinking yet, but at least we got to his brother.
<a href="http://img48.imageshack.us/my.php?image=nazbottom91101gw6.png>Zen
<a href="http://img48.imageshack.us/my.php?image=nazbottom100808yy0.png>This
How long before politicians finally admit that virtually the whole of the entire US economy, for the past decade now, has essentially been the largest speculative bubble in the history of the world?
Well, I will either do very well out of this or I will have a lot of company tending my garden.
Zen time- ommmmm!
someday this war's gonna end...
PCA is like a broken clock. Eventually he will tell the correct time.
I did not know you guys are THE Marx Brothers !!
A more conventional spin is that
"Politics is the art of the possible"
which begs the question, "is it possible to fix this mess?"
Wow... just watched the video.
Ten trillion dollars.
That's like 1 billion reams of printer paper (assuming higher denomination bills). And we're talking about the nice cotton stuff.
It's not going to be trivial to pay that off.
I think I'm gonna have to modify the numeral amount on this one.
I don't think anyone has given me feedback on it... like, no like?
Comrades,
7 posts when I refreshed to new post. 15sec video, few seconds typing.
2 minutes.
875th!
Nostrovia,
Clearly this is a thread where we absolutely must stay on topic.
I have nothing to say about that....
speechless and sad......
CR, did your brother work for the Republican Party in Santa Clara County (like 35 years ago)?
YLSP, i think that is mildly amusing. Thanks.
Has anyone been keeping up with "The Spiral" mini-series on equityprivate?
The latest videos had me laughing - my wife and kids think I'm nuts...
The Spiral
CR, you ever hike the Bob Marshall? I know you are there
brother?! there goes my virgin birth theory for where CR came from.
Comrade YLSP,
So many comments so little time. Very nice.
Nostrovia,
"brother?! there goes my virgin birth theory for where CR came from."
Jesus had brothers.
Groucho Marx, our greatest philosopher. I was just wondering when it would get bad enough that someone would quote him!
question.
does the short ban expire allow for a rally or just bloody thursday setting up confiscation of assets Friday for the ultimate bear?
Sheila.
Canadians are blocked from seeing it. Private shame I guess....
Carrying over on the "premature reflation" discussion:
Absolutely, if we reflate now, we'll spend more taxpayer money than we have to, simply because we'll be taking all the hit due the bondholders. In addition, until we clean up the banks, many will continue blowing money. Indymac was making toxic loans right up to the very end.
"Jesus had brothers."
Who is talking about Jesus? Wrong myth. This is the mythology of CR. He once hiked for 30 days and 30 nights. he is "that one"
Comrade Why@ ZIRP,
"Groucho Marx, our greatest philosopher. I was just wondering when it would get bad enough that someone would quote him!"
I've quoted Groucho before. Several times.
Round 'Tini time.
I think I'll slip out of these close and into a dry martini.
Nostrovia,
I know traders who are getting demolished by just how unlikely this scenario is from a technical POV.
No single day of cataclysmic decline like in 1987 - but no real rebounds that usually punctuate drops like this.
No living trader in America has really witnessed first-hand a true deleveraging event.
Astonishing that S&P futures are tanking again. I heard several people say in the morning that a 1% rally will trigger massive short-covering; but we got the rally this morning and it simply fizzled out.
What do you think lifting the short ban will do (rally or slump) and why?
Comrade Fair Economist,
"Absolutely, if we reflate now, we'll spend more taxpayer money than we have to, simply because we'll be taking all the hit due the bondholders. In addition, until we clean up the banks, many will continue blowing money. Indymac was making toxic loans right up to the very end."
I'll set aside the whole FDR reflate thingy. An inverted debt pyramid (ponzi scheme) once it fails cannot be reflated.
In econometric terms not only must the first derivative be positive, but also the second. This thing CANNOT grow.
ac and others are correct, any "relation" will just sit on the balance sheet. IF any playaz feel healthy (the heroin fix makes them delusional again) another bubble pump will be tried. The commodity bubble was just that. It failed quickly.
Either the inverted debt pyramid grows or it collapses. There's no "reflating" it. We're at the apex. All fall down.
A bankrupt taxing authority can't borrow it's way out of it. It doesn't have the capacity.
Nostrovia,
Bond Girl,
Didn't you follow your own market today (bonds)? The 10-year was down huge, 30-year down quite a bit, and huge spreads on all 10+ year durations. Huge money finally moving out of bonds and into...
one guess.
one month T-bills?
But everyone knows you are not supposed to start new shorts with VIX above 50 and S&P down 16% in less than two weeks.
I cannot fathom who is placing new shorts in an environment that is this oversold. Every rule advices against it; particularly with weekly magazines now doing Depression covers.
Of course real collapses start from extremely oversold conditions; but these happen about twice a century, so betting on them is hardly a viable trading strategy.
That reminds me of a story so doity I'm ashamed to think of it myself.
"one guess."
Mattresses?
Bond Girl --
I think lifting the short ban will cause a dip then a rally. All of the "real" players have still been able to short via options. So it's only the moron retail traders who have been waiting all this time to short the bejeezus out of the financials.
So, a small dip when the morons pile on, then a rally as they get squeezed out.
"one guess."
Real money?
if we reflate now, we'll spend more taxpayer money than we have to
Add to that we'll be expending scare capital to perpetuate piles of unproductive debt. Useless.
You're all <a href="http://img48.imageshack.us/my.php?image=nazbottom100808yy0.png>wrong
"one guess."
Benevolent Fists?
Comrade karelian,
"I know traders who are getting demolished by just how unlikely this scenario is from a technical POV.
No single day of cataclysmic decline like in 1987 - but no real rebounds that usually punctuate drops like this.
No living trader in America has really witnessed first-hand a true deleveraging event."
The short sale bn is the thing that PCA and TA didn't put into their TA. Letting short sales will stabalize. The VIX in the 30's and now are due to an attempt to ban short selling. With short selling markets will still go down. But with out them it will be FUGLY.
Expect Cock..erm..Cox...to extend short ban. Cuz stupid is as stupid does.
Nostrovia,
Bond Girl --
(from the previous thread... my real job intervened)
Bond Girl --
Supposing BB knew/thought this was coming (personally I doubt it), he would not have said as much.
I do not know if he expected it to get this bad, but his actions over the past year suggest concerns that were never expressed.
I never understood dropping the discount rate so low. One old principle of central banking is to extract a penalty for tapping its "lender of last resort" mechanism. Lending at such insanely low rates of interest really only makes sense if you are trying to recapitalize the banking system. I believe this has been one of the goals of Fed policy over the past year.
Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your proclivities) the crisis outran the banks' ability to plug their balance sheet holes with profits.
But I agree it is hard to know whether our public servants have been lying (in a misguided, and ultimately self-defeating, attempt to shore up "confidence") or simply wrong.
(blushing) boy I'll really make an ass of myself if I'm wrong w/ this market call
^^^ too late ^^^
The only way out is to invade Poland.
Not to worry. It's only electrons floating across an LCD. No trees died in the effort. And when it contracts no electrons will vanish; just the images on the screen will go from green to red.
It's fine.
Guthrie performed continually throughout his life with his guitar frequently displaying the slogan "This Machine Kills Fascists". Guthrie is perhaps best known for his song "This Land Is Your Land"
I wonder if they have a debt clock in Iceland. I guess we can add a new implode-a-meter metric.
Anonymouse --
So you are long SPY and QQQQ here with what stops?
(I do not care where you entered. As always, you have the choice of cash or SPY+QQQQ right now, and you are choosing the latter right now.)
Kudos for making actual public predictions, by the way. Most traders only talk about past trades, and they somehow always bought at the bottom and sold at the top.
Guthrie. Wow, lets take a walk down Wobbly road. I can see them making a comeback. Guthrie...I really hope not.
emo,
If SPY's break and hold $95.00 I'm out w/ a 5% loss. Same w/ QQQQ - break and hold 5% lower I'm done. (btw, I entered 100.05, SPY, and 33.06, QQQQ)
"You're all wrong"
The producers of real money.
karelian writes:
I know traders who are getting demolished by just how unlikely this scenario is from a technical POV.
I got smacked a couple of times before I got the message. Good TA gone bad!
YouTube - Bruce Springsteen: THIS LAND IS YOUR LAND
I don't know. I watched SKF go up 3% two minutes to close.
Here's a tip buy BlueStar Airlines
Gordo
I'm skeptical of your predictions Mr. Anonymouse, but perhaps you will prove us wrong.
My wifes boss told her that his retirement money is almost wiped out. Since he is around 60 I bet he is loving life.
My daughter said her History teacher said the same thing last week.
How many people are out there like that? They sure are not getting media play - yet.
Comrades PCA,
Dude, really. An inverted debt pyramid collapse is gonna blow out your chart analysis. Seriously. Be careful mate.
Nostrovia,
comrade persecuted anonymouse,
Is a possibility?
Wait until we find out how much public pensions lost this year, how unfunded are we now...crank another printing press up
"My wifes boss told her that his retirement money is almost wiped out. Since he is around 60 I bet he is loving life."
Wait until he finds out that SS and Medicare are next.
Throw out your charts and historical data. They mean nothing in this new world
Somehow the link didn't work as I had hoped. I was trying to link to a chart of the Nikkei 225 going back to 1989
this one was interesting
Macro Man: Open thread/Running Diary/Brain Dump
Anonymous writes:
Throw out your charts and historical data. They mean nothing in this new world
too bad you don't have a handle, I'm saving that one ("this time it's different" lol)
Did the financial engineers program the effect of the bubble and sudden decline in housing prices on taxes on housing, where taxes go up because they are based on past years valuation of the property?
No I did not think so.
Huh? Homeowners blindsided by taxes - Chicago Tribune
Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Steel mills in China, the world's biggest makers, are reducing demand for iron ore and asking miners to postpone deliveries because of tightening credit facilities, said Mt. Gibson Iron Ltd., an Australian producer.
Interesting. I wonder how Korea is doing.
Comrade sue,
"Wait until we find out how much public pensions lost this year, how unfunded are we now"
I've been screaming from the roof tops about this..as has rich...for over a year now. Suddenly people are noticing.
Amazing. When these entities hit ERISA, well it won't be pretty.
That in your TA PCA?
Nostrovia,
sue writes:
Wait until we find out how much public pensions lost this year, how unfunded are we now...crank another printing press up
sue | 10.08.08 - 9:33 pm | #
And I expect my state will offer the mother of all retirement incentives.
We were fully funded, but our fund is managed by Wall Street.
I found out the other day, after 21 years, that in 8 years I will be elgible for a pension. I really need to learn to read the paperwork
too bad you don't have a handle, I'm saving that one ("this time it's different" lol)
Saving because you agree or to ridicule me later?
All market crashes have been from oversold positions.
Yes, pensions are the next big deal.
Anonymouse --
Thanks. One more question.
Have you ever seen a market behave as it has in the past few days? Most market technicians seem to think that every indicator they know has been screaming "bottom" all week. Would you agree?
Got salt?
Canadian watching with popcorn writes:
All market crashes have been from oversold positions.
Me earlier tonight:
If we close lower, perhaps the market's shooting for a 1 to 2 extension of the A-B=C-D move down - an absolutely parabolic move that <a href="http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/2220682143948608776/?dt=1223532353#652730>either crashes or rockets.
Most market technicians seem to think that every indicator they know has been screaming "bottom" all week. Would you agree?
But if the set of conditions causing the drop persist, then there is no bottom reached until those conditions are remedied. IMO.
I guess the treasury will stand behind them too, it's a good time for the states to jump on the bandwagon and off-load their time bombs too.
The thing about the finance business that killing me right now is the only real skill you need is good judgment.
The thing about the finance business that killing me right now is the only real skill you need is good judgment.
sue | 10.08.08 - 9:41 pm
I thought good hair was important also.
Mike in Long Island:
I guess it depends what the next Pres does.
Anonymouse,
You are saying if we close down tomorrow we will have a crash and if we close up then the opposite?
emo writes:
Have you ever seen a market behave as it has in the past few days? Most market technicians seem to think that every indicator they know has been screaming "bottom" all week. Would you agree?
Gee whiz, I've posted these charts (2001 decline, today) 3 times now - yes these parabolic downward extensions have happened maybe half a dozen other times in the last 40 years - that is, outside the '87 crash.
Macro, micro, what's the difference...
Error
Cook County sheriff refuses to evict in foreclosure cases
October 8, 2008
The Associated Press
Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart says he's ordered his deputies to stop taking part in evictions of properties that have been foreclosed upon.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
Comrades,
7 posts when I refreshed to new post. 15sec video, few seconds typing.
2 minutes.
875th!
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope | 10.08.08 - 9:01 pm | #
But in the land of zen one and infinity are the same.
Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart...
Up for reelection when?
Comrade (no capital n...no man to me) nemo,
"Have you ever seen a market behave as it has in the past few days? Most market technicians seem to think that every indicator they know has been screaming "bottom" all week. Would you agree?"
No man, this thing really sucks. I saw a chart today, can't remember the link, I'll find it at work tomorrow, as I have Vista on my internet laptop (freebsd chokes on the network card) but the stochastics on the info I was looking at are positively other worldly. All markets in US are breaking through trendlines so fast it's mind boggling. One chart I saw, posted by a poster here, showed VIX at 1930's levels. It's insane. I wouldn't trade this market unless I had a tarp guarentee of 5% on any trade I made.
Nostrovia,
Nova writes:
Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart...
You know that job has to be totally soul-sucking these days.
I'll set aside the whole FDR reflate thingy. An inverted debt pyramid (ponzi scheme) once it fails cannot be reflated.
In econometric terms not only must the first derivative be positive, but also the second. This thing CANNOT grow.
ac and others are correct, any "relation" will just sit on the balance sheet. IF any playaz feel healthy (the heroin fix makes them delusional again) another bubble pump will be tried. The commodity bubble was just that. It failed quickly.
Either the inverted debt pyramid grows or it collapses. There's no "reflating" it. We're at the apex. All fall down.
On the other hand, if you're a banker, reflation under any circumstances is a great idea.
Am I right?
Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart says he's ordered his deputies to stop taking part in evictions of properties that have been foreclosed upon.
So now the County gets sued by the mortgage companies?
Tom Dart- "these foreclosures are taking precious resources away from setting speed traps that are hurting our revenue projections"
Huge money finally moving out of bonds and into...
one guess.
Foreign money going back to its homeland?
Crap! TA means Technical Analysis???
Thought it had to do with butts and boobies.
Bond Girl writes:
You are saying if we close down tomorrow we will have a crash and if we close up then the opposite?
No; I wrote that if we close below today's low tomorrow, we're likely headed for the 1 to 2 extension of the A-B=C-D move down. The 1 to 2 extension takes us to about 925. If we go beyond that this week I'd say the market had already crashed.
I forgot about good hair
Why@ ZIRP writes:
Groucho Marx, our greatest philosopher. I was just wondering when it would get bad enough that someone would quote him!
Why@ ZIRP | 10.08.08 - 9:07 pm | #
BZZZZT - wrong. Yogi Berra.
"A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore."
Top that.
You know that job has to be totally soul-sucking these days.
Bond Girl | 10.08.08 - 9:46 pm |
Just did some checking. Dart is a machine pol that had the blessing. The Irish blessing at that. It's politics.
Gee whiz, I've posted these charts (2001 decline, today) 3 times now - yes these parabolic downward extensions
Can you predict hurricanes with those charts?
Comrade dryfly,
"But in the land of zen one and infinity are the same."
OOOOMMM.
I shall take that path, master.
Nostrovia,
Actually I think good hair for men is as essential as a good rack for women these days.
The Nikkei is debating right now, should I jump right now or hang on for something good to happen.
I have Vista on my internet laptop (freebsd chokes on the network card)
Dude, that's so sad. What about Linux?
Comrade ac,
"On the other hand, if you're a banker, reflation under any circumstances is a great idea.
Am I right?"
Well it helps them keep their yacht and hampton house..so sure.
Nostrovia,
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
No; I wrote that if we close below today's low tomorrow, we're likely headed for the 1 to 2 extension of the A-B=C-D move down. The 1 to 2 extension takes us to about 925. If we go beyond that this week I'd say the market had already crashed.
That looks like English. Is that English? I know English and I have no clue what that says.
OK, I have the answer. DOW tommorow closes up 117.34
Book it Dano
How many people are out there like that? They sure are not getting media play - yet.
Nova | 10.08.08 - 9:32 pm | #
I know a few who have cratered - I tell them it might be the best thing that ever happened to them.
Say what you crazy dryfly?
Most folks have no connection with family... my BIL and I are very close, he is the ONLY person I still fish with (else I fish completely alone)... he is a well educated 'laborer-poet'... graduated with honors, lives in the northwoods and works factory by day and writes by night - keeps it in a shoe box al al Emily - HATED corporate office type work so found his way to factories - complete recluse.
We were talking about what I'd do if it got real shitty - I said move up there with him. His reply was... "well there is no shortage of room up here in the northwoods".
Lotsa people gonna find their long lost families - like it or not.
Anonymous writes:
Throw out your charts and historical data. They mean nothing in this new world"
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
too bad you don't have a handle, I'm saving that one ("this time it's different" lol)"
Indeed Anonimouse,
these candles are pretty rare, and for some reason happen much more on Naz reversals than SPX or DJIA, so even in "these markets" this feature seems to reoccur.
Anonimous
rather than say "charts mean nothing in this world", the scientific approach is to say: the simplest hypothesis is that , as usual, the big players (those who can move prices) are not so muched "panicked" but rather try to present an image of fear). So simplest hypothesis is more volatility but same "action rules".
In science, you start by the simplest and only introduce "inexplicable-random" if and only if hypothesis is rejected.
Well it helps them keep their yacht and hampton house..so sure.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
Well, I for one think it should be the role of the government to ensure that.
looks like my laptop lost the letter "y"
Comrade bobyn,
"Dude, that's so sad. What about Linux?"
Yeah next try. I just hate that linux distros change config file locations so much. Pisses me off. I do most of my work in vi from the command line...hate searching for shite.
I'm gonna wait for FBSD 7.1 release, then try umbutoo. Can't be worse than Vista. Oh yeah Vista SP1 ate my sound system on my moving about laptop. Friggin' idiots in Seatle. That's a stock I'd like to short hard. But idiots with money keep buying it it.
Nostrovia,
Dryfly. I am not as picky about who I fish with as much as who I hunt with. Then again I quit hunting.
bobn --
He is talking about the S&P 500. If it closes below today's low (roughly 970) tomorrow, then he thinks it heads to 925 from there. If it closes up tomorrow, then it heads up from there.
He sounds pretty sure of himself, so I guess we can consider this a test of Technical Analysis, Anonymouse version.
sue writes:
The Nikkei is debating right now, should I jump right now or hang on for something good to happen.
sue | 10.08.08 - 9:51 pm | #
Don't you know nothing? They won't jump - sharp knife & clean kimono.
emo writes:
Bond Girl --
I think lifting the short ban will cause a dip then a rally. All of the "real" players have still been able to short via options. So it's only the moron retail traders who have been waiting all this time to short the bejeezus out of the financials.
So, a small dip when the morons pile on, then a rally as they get squeezed out.
nemo sees it.
dryfly,
your right, sharp knife, clean kimono and help from a friend.
emo=
OMEN
No; I wrote that if we close below today's low tomorrow, we're likely headed for the 1 to 2 extension of the A-B=C-D move down. The 1 to 2 extension takes us to about 925. If we go beyond that this week I'd say the market had already crashed.
That looks like English. Is that English? I know English and I have no clue what that says"
I get it... and my English is not that great
... and I "don't do waves"
2001 is an interesting comparison if you are trying to defend TA from the idea that it becomes irrelevant in the case of the extraordinary.
Like Nemo, I admire your guts in talking about it. I also admire your decision to stick to it in the face of capricious government interference in the markets.
Nova writes:
Dryfly. I am not as picky about who I fish with as much as who I hunt with. Then again I quit hunting.
Nova | 10.08.08 - 10:00 pm | #
I hear ya - I know two VERY safe & responsible hunters who were shot by knuckleheads they never ever knew and never even saw. Luckily both lived but it was nip-n-tuck for one of them (deer rifle through the chest just under the heart - it was illegal mil ammunition so it didn't mushroom or he would have been a goner).
I quite hunting after that - you can't control the 'other guys'.
" . . . and help from a friend."
A case and a half of sake?
Comrade ac,
"Well it helps them keep their yacht and hampton house..so sure.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
Well, I for one think it should be the role of the government to ensure that."
Ufdah...is that the correct use of that term?
Yeehah! ?
They deserve it as captains of crony capatalism?....now I'm on to something.
Nostrovia,
A salute to those brave buyers:
YouTube - "The Third Man Theme"
America in the time of the black market...
Someday this war's gonna end...
dryfly,
your right, sharp knife, clean kimono and help from a friend.
sue | 10.08.08 - 10:01 pm | #
Ahh, our friend seppuku. That brings back memories.
Anonymouse - I took a flyer on some SSO today, just on the offhand chance we bounce here. I'm working my own flavor of technical analysis, which is overlaying the 2000 S&P drop from peak on this one. Similarities are pretty striking.
On the other hand, if we go down much from here, I'll be taking mp's advice and looking for a cozy cave.
Huge money finally moving out of bonds and into...
one guess.
Perhaps CYA if they remove the ban and then quickly replace it.
Groucho Marx, unlike his older brothers Chico and Harpo, was a very thrifty guy who carefully saved his money--only to lose everything in the Crash of 1929. Groucho had put all his assets into one stock, and it collapsed.
the simplest hypothesis is that , as usual, the big players (those who can move prices) are not so muched "panicked" but rather try to present an image of fear).
Sure you're right but, at some point control vanishes.
Aliva,
My japanese history is a little rusty but your bringing back some memories.
Bloom TV,
Korean Nat Bank cut prime .25%...just on the screen.
Nostrovia,
EL Cliffo,
Guess he missed that diversification episode by suze orman.
What today's market felt like:
YouTube - Das Boot - Emergency dive scene
Now that was something else!!!
When Paulson started stuttering this is what happened.
Now they will take it higher until next week.
Does anyone seriously think that the market makers are going to lose a billion dollars on the cubes alone?
Someday this war's gonna end...
A lot of dark humor on this blog these days. I believe it is appropriate. Told my brother that I was developing my
"gallows" humor. Think it will serve me well in the days ahead. Batten hatches everyone.
Das Subprimeboot
NC,
I don't do waves either. I don't believe one pattern (Elliott or any other) can be superimposed onto the marketplace because it's driven largely by human emotions. That's why I primarily rely on benchmarking volume - and the A-B=C-D pattern - not wave is precisely volume based.
For an A-B=C-D down (the up works completely in reverse, duh), the A point has light volume (SPX 1440), the B point has strong volume (SPX 1200), the C point retraces not beyond 0.618 of the A-B down move on light volume (SPX 1314), and to get a clean projection, the B point is broken with greater volume (the SPX 1200 was broken w/ volume in mid September - confirmation on daily & weekly).
So that's where I got SPX 1075 from - the 1 to 1 projection that I said could be extended further (as has happened). The A-B (1440-1200 = 240) equals C-D (1314-240 = 1075, these were rounded for easy math).
It's a reliably pattern. Hope that clears up some of my methods, esp. to someone who uses T.A. successfully.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
(blushing) boy I'll really make an ass of myself if I'm wrong w/ this market call
I don't daytrade, and I am not a big fan of TA, but I do appreciate your comments and your opinions on the market. Don't worry about being wrong... calling a bounce is like calling a recession; it's always difficult to pin down the timing. But just like watching weather forecast, knowing what's in the cards in the near future (a storm is coming!) is extremely useful even without precise timing info (it'll start raining at 9:33am!).
Besides, you are always nice about it, and if nothing else, the predictions make good entertainment!
WASHINGTON Having tried without success to unlock frozen credit markets, the Treasury Department is considering taking ownership stakes in many United States banks to try to restore confidence in the financial system, according to government officials.
- NY Times
He is talking about the S&P 500. If it closes below today's low (roughly 970) tomorrow, then he thinks it heads to 925 from there. If it closes up tomorrow, then it heads up from there.
He sounds pretty sure of himself, so I guess we can consider this a test of Technical Analysis, Anonymouse version.
Funny, I would say that it's more of a verification of high VIX, because all it says is that the swing from today's close will be big.
NC,
Pardon my use of "pattern" several times - I meant the A-B=C-D is a good price projection and I absolutely find Elliott wave useless.
This would be the perfect time (not that there haven't been a lot of others) to put up a thread music line to Mojo Nixon's "I hate banks." But I can't find one.
Funny, I would say that it's more of a verification of high VIX, because all it says is that the swing from today's close will be big.
Shhhh... you're not supposed to look behind the curtain!!!!!!
Prairiedog,
Look on the bright side, Ten years ago our only source of information would have been Lou Dobbs. This is far more informative and entertaining. CR will probably help fix the credit crisis far faster then having no debate at all.
Anonymouse and the bounce hypothesis
bounce hypothesis does not just rest on one candle, example:
-\tthe price - volume action suggests resistance to fall on day charts considering the last 3 days for SPX, DJIA, Naz
-\tthe money flow was large and positive for SPY today (cannot remember seeing a larger number ever) meaning action was = NET buying on weakness (not selling, even though price dropped for the day)
-\tmoney flow was large and negative on SKF (cute candle too, but reverse/Naz)
wait and see (I have not been buying with both hands though Anonymouse)
I don't daytrade, and I am not a big fan of TA, but I do appreciate your comments and your opinions on the market.
I agree anonymouse - no guts no glory. Go for it!
My only knock on TA is its too much like SPC - based on 'stable process'... change the 'process' and all past history is meaningless.
Question to ask is: 'has the process changed'?
Lunch at N255
PIMCO and CP facility
Pimco in Talks on Managing Commercial Paper Fund - Financials * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
N225 +115.08 9,318.40
Pimco, soon to be the Halliburton of finance.
I just hope all of us on CR have two years worth of cash on hand.
Eric writes:
Funny, I would say that it's more of a verification of high VIX, because all it says is that the swing from today's close will be big."
Actually, my own elementary TA indicates the VIX will drop next
Bond Girl --
PIMCO and CP facility
Sure, why not.
We should just give Bernanke's job to Bill Gross. It would save a lot of time.
Pimco=pimp?
I just hope all of us on CR have two years worth of cash on hand.
norma | 10.08.08 - 10:24 pm | #
Sorry, not I.
Just hoping to stay employed ;^)
"I quite hunting after that - you can't control the 'other guys'."
When I was about 8, my uncle stan decided it was time for me to go deer hunting with him. Off we went into thick Manitoba forest. Next thing I knew, I was standing alone in a clearing and then Stan came running at me from behind and tackled me, yelling "don't shoot, don't shoot" to some guy who had raised his rifle in my general direction.
The whole thing hadn't been thought out very well, because Stan hadn't noticed me wearing my brown furry parka with the little white pom pom on the back of the hood.
When we got back home I told Aunt Bertha what I thought was a funny story, and to my horror she set upon him like a wolverine protecting its young.
Stan died in a hunting accident a few years later.
Off T.A. topic - Looks like a potentially <a href="http://wamu.org/programs/dr/08/10/09.php#23265>interesting NPR discussion tomorrow morning on "The Future of Capitalism" (see guests in link)
the leveraged process of long gold and short oil has not changed, or has it?
another hypothesis:
if the short ban on Financials is abated, and the downdraft occurs while volume dries up(news and trading).....viola. the bottom.
or 2/3rds of the banks just go to zero,nobody has a job, credit and debit cards stop functioning, and its a whole new day bartering gold for food.
horray, we live in information!!
Am I the only on-topic person on this thread??
From CNN, 2000: National Debt Clock stops
The plug was pulled on the National Debt Clock, which has kept track of the federal government's red ink since the electronic billboard near Times Square was erected in 1989.
In its final moments Thursday, the sign read: "Our national debt: $5,676,989,904,887. Your family share: $73,733." [...]
But the clock, which calculated the second-by-second increase in the debt based on data from the U.S. Treasury, began doing a strange thing this year.
Rather than cranking higher, it started ticking in the opposite direction, shaving off roughly $30 a second at last count, with a newly frugal Washington to thank. [...]
"It's great that it's going down, but what does it really mean? I don't know. If it turns in the opposite direction, I would have no way of knowing what caused it," Allen said.
Durst said that kind of confusion was far from his father's wish to inform the public on the ballooning debt.
"I think it's sending the wrong message at this point," he said. [...]
Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore has outlined a plan that he says would eliminate the debt by 2012.
Senior economic advisers to Texas Governor and Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush agree with the principle of paying down the debt but have not committed to a specific date for eliminating it.
I guess that we will have to wait and see, but looking at Asia we have definitely hit our Gibralter moment.
In honor of that i will be using that famous scene as my link for a while.
Someday this war's gonna end...
JP --
Funny, I would say that it's more of a verification of high VIX, because all it says is that the swing from today's close will be big.
His prediction is far more specific than that. It is both testable and tradeable for a profit, if he is right.
In contrast to just predicting "it's going to bounce around a lot". For instance.
Is there a pie chart anywhere the divides the National Debt up by category?
Bill Gross the ultimate Cheshire Cat
another hypothesis:
if the short ban on Financials is abated, and the downdraft occurs while volume dries up(news and trading).....viola.
the Money then goes into corp. bonds
Pimco is a smart firm, and I say this not having anything to do with them. Yes, of course we can be jealous that they talked their book and everything turned up roses for them. However, give them credit for a few things:
- they've been right about calling the shots recently
- they are the largest bond fund for a reason
- seems like Bill Gross was once a freak, and his colleagues know music
I don't think they really have the expertise they talk about for the simple reason that they steered clear of most of the toxic crapola.
"seems like Bill Gross was once a freak, and his colleagues know music"
Explain?
f you read their monthly commentaries [on pimco.com] there are often musical analogies to the stones, aerosmith, hendrix, etc. I wish they would go a bit further but they probably realize that most folks wouldn't know about spirit and other bands out of CA from that period
Denninger is turning me into a very regular Lefty's customer and Lefty's J&B makes me look a bit haggard of late...
The Market Ticker
Relax FFDIC, Denninger's chart doesn't show the inverted hammer of Thor. It's all going to be fine (for about 6 months, then it's going to go completely to hell).
blinks spirit ? didn't they record 'natures way of telling you somethings wrong" ?
I had a friend who was a big time elk hunter in Washington. He was one of those guys who just wasn't happy unless he had an elk's head wired to the grill of his truck. For about two years he hounded me to go hunting with him, but I kept putting him off. Finally I told him that I gave up hunting the day I could afford to shop at Safeway.
I've been thinking of hanging out at the local shooting range.
We've probably seen it on the blog before, but how does the $10T debt break down?
the Money then goes into corp. bonds
Anonymous | 10.08.08 - 10:30 pm
viola, TED comes down as the CP market lossens up the credit for "Producers".
calpital goods, say it isnt so.
Just as an FYI
National Debt by year (per treasurydirect) *=rounded number
09/30/2008 ~10,000,000,000,000.02
09/30/2007 \t9,007,653,372,262.48
09/30/2006 \t8,506,973,899,215.23
09/30/2005 \t7,932,709,661,723.50
09/30/2004 \t7,379,052,696,330.32
09/30/2003 \t6,783,231,062,743.62
09/30/2002 \t6,228,235,965,597.16
09/30/2001 \t5,807,463,412,200.06
09/30/2000 \t5,674,178,209,886.86
09/30/1999 \t5,656,270,901,615.43
09/30/1998 \t5,526,193,008,897.62
09/30/1997 \t5,413,146,011,397.34
09/30/1996 \t5,224,810,939,135.73
09/29/1995 \t4,973,982,900,709.39
09/30/1994 \t4,692,749,910,013.32
09/30/1993 \t4,411,488,883,139.38
09/30/1992 \t4,064,620,655,521.66
09/30/1991 \t3,665,303,351,697.03
09/28/1990 \t3,233,313,451,777.25
09/29/1989 \t2,857,430,960,187.32
09/30/1988 \t2,602,337,712,041.16
09/30/1987 \t2,350,276,890,953.00
09/30/1986 \t2,125,302,616,658.42
09/30/1985 \t* 1,823,103,000,000.00
09/30/1984 \t* 1,572,266,000,000.00
09/30/1983 \t* 1,377,210,000,000.00
09/30/1982 \t* 1,142,034,000,000.00
09/30/1981 \t* 997,855,000,000.00
09/30/1980 \t* 907,701,000,000.00
09/30/1979 \t* 826,519,000,000.00
09/30/1978 \t* 771,544,000,000.00
09/30/1977 \t* 698,840,000,000.00
06/30/1976 \t* 620,433,000,000.00
06/30/1975 \t* 533,189,000,000.00
06/30/1974 \t475,059,815,731.55
06/30/1973 \t458,141,605,312.09
06/30/1972 \t427,260,460,940.50
06/30/1971 \t398,129,744,455.54
06/30/1970 \t370,918,706,949.93
06/30/1969 \t353,720,253,841.41
06/30/1968 \t347,578,406,425.88
06/30/1967 \t326,220,937,794.54
06/30/1966 \t319,907,087,795.48
06/30/1965 \t317,273,898,983.64
06/30/1964 \t311,712,899,257.30
06/30/1963 \t305,859,632,996.41
06/30/1962 \t298,200,822,720.87
06/30/1961 \t288,970,938,610.05
Correct. And I would venture that's what you hear on the waiting room soundtrack. Now, back to toxic CDOs.
I've got a great idea.So many of the rich are pullng their money out of Hedge Funds and looking for a new place to put it.They see the 2+20 and 3+30 funds as not helping them enough.Soooooo my new funds The 5+50 and for the very very rich My Super Super 10+75.We all know that for them the more expensive the better something must be($250 Cigar,$100 Hamburger,ect.).I'll keep puting them off,not return their calls,and snub them when we meet(Same thing as present hedges).They'll be crawing and begging me to take their money.I'm sure I'll make most of them do some vile,dirty,debasing things before I take their money.They'll LOVE it! They'll brag to other people that "THEIR GUY" is so good that he takes 5+50 and 10+75 and that THEY are in on the 10+75............If anyone on this board would like to get in on this(Not on the groundfloor as some might call it,but in on the PENTHOUSE) start begging me now!
I thought Spirit's big hit was "I've got a line on you (Benny B)".
calpital=
capital
Im not a vrey good typesetter.
FFDIC,switch to everclear and Valerian root.You can get most of the esters out of the everclear out by running it through a Brita filter 5 times.Start with a quart of everclear and one cup fresh chopped Valerian root.Run the E through the filter,and drink off a cup of it to make room for the root.put the root in the bottle and use a funnel to pour the everclear back in (Don't use a plastic funnel,they melt and it tastes funny).shake it once a day,and it is ready in a week.You can add a couple of grams of good bud for an extra calming effect if needed.Enjoy!
Uncle Billy,
About$144,000 per household
FFDIC,
you can also get rid of the esters by running it though a loaf of bread.
sue: thanks. I mean what is the debt composed of. (A googling I will go)
Taxpayers
Are
Really
Pissed
Source: George Ure.
waiting room soundtrack request :
<a href="www.YouTube.com/watch/?v=yRVi0paZlfl>Whatever You Like
FFDIC writes:
Denninger is turning me into a very regular Lefty's customer and Lefty's J&B makes me look a bit haggard of late...
http://market-ticker.denninger.n...or- dummies.html
His rant factor is a bit high for me. I can rant enough all on my own.
It's funny that Paulson is trying to restore confidence in the markets when apparently you can count the people he trusts on one hand.
Until it runs out,there's going to be a lot of Goverment Cheese put out.Squirrel+Goverment Cheese=Squirrel Melt!
Uh-oh, we've broken the internet debt clock:
U.S. National Debt Clock
Lighten up folks,this debt isn't in REAL money,it's in Dollars! (Real Money=canned goods and ammo)
OK Anonymouse, I guess I also use an AB-CD kind of pattern... just I dont have a name for it
The CD is what I call a Fibonacci extension and it can be 1, 1.27, 1.6 2 (2.63?) I round the numbers here.
Some of these outcomes are more frequent than others in typical conditions, but now I guess the 1.6 (1000 SPX) or 2 (960) are not surprising.
If CD it is only 0.6 it points to retrace of the whole previous AD.
Here there is no telling how much retrace we will get, but we will be watching price-volume action at the critical levels.
The Fib extensions usually also correspond to some pivots points ie sticky levels" previously (it is kind of obvious why... if you work with the hypothesis-most of the time verified- that not much is random even in these markets
let me try that again....
my thread music:
YouTube - "Weird Al" Yankovic - Whatever You Like
baby you should know that I'm really such a sweet guy
when I get you bathroom tissue, I always get the 2-ply
you can have whatever you like
First Into Recession, California Shows Possible Future for U.S. - WSJ.com
First into Recession, California Shows Possible Future for US
Uncle Wiki has more than you'd ever want to know (well most of us) about the National Debt:
United States public debt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Texas bans nibbling fish pedicures - Telegraph
Texas bans nibbling fish pedicures
The US state of Texas has banned fish pedicures over health and safety concerns, denying salon customers the opportunity to enjoy the sensation of hundreds of small fish nibbling away the dead skin from their feet.
(Another fishy business model banned)
FFDIC writes:
About Denninger:
"His rant factor is a bit high for me. I can rant enough all on my own."
I think he is OK, just I know I can only read his stuff before I sleep and make sure I "erase the impression" (if not his point) before trading time
Comrades,
At this point thread music is cached.
YouTube - Metal Church - Date with poverty
Nostrovia,
as far as Im concerned the bear market started for me AUG 2007.
We are 12 months into recession. I would suspect, over halfway.
bottom of the 4th, 3 up, 3 down.
end of an inning.
Persecuted,
Like most here, I admire your moxie and wish you the best.
But, we need lots of secondary offerings to get the balance sheets squared, first. That means lots of failures for those that can't do it and lots of dilution for those that can.
Long term holders don't like that, and they'll eventually bail. My guess is, the 401k boom Wall Street manufactured is coming to an end. And that right soon.
"In its bleakest forecast for years, the International Monetary Fund said that the world was entering a major downturn in the face of the most dangerous shock . . . since the 1930s. The US and Europe were either on the brink of or already in recession." (I guess this answers CR's constant silly questions about recession.)
Interest rate cuts overshadowed by spectre of recession - Times Online
Uncle Billy,
see this site:
Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)
If you have 2 hours to kill, here is video from the USC talk yesterday about how we got here and how we get out of it.
Finance & Real Estate Market Meltdown
FFDIC, you're starting to bum me out. Got any links about shiny sparkly ponies???
My rebuttal to CR's "happy scenario" -
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=dollar
This week wasn't capitulation or a bottom.
We want Tanta, we want Tanta, etc
Or we could do:
bond - Google Videos
Nostrovia,
My son has a band in LA. I spent a few minutes trying to educate him on the current financial fiasco. He is very smart and he has a good band, too. Don't know he would have the expertise to handle this situation, though.
cheers weepstah
CR posed the question down two threads
where would you rather be, here, (on the edge of the cliff,
or there (presumably more than half way to the bottom)
CR, with all due respect, and i realize a am in no way your peer...
where we are is neither here nor there!
for the reasons Rob Dawg noted at around mid thread.
the notional value, and astronomical number of the derivatives are a crushing complexity.
what progress have we made in resolving the credit default swap overhang out there?
i feel like im watching a sky diver, tangled in the lines of his chute streaming at breakneck speed towards the ground
telling me we are closer to the bottom is no consolation.
i'm fearful and pessimistic
we need to cut the cords and deploy the back-up chute like now or we are doomed.
On the upside of this, there are some real bargains to be had on the stock market, it's a bit of a 'one man's demise is another man's win' (or woman in this case).
Anna Murray, London, UK
Gotta watch those Brits
Nigella Lawson...Chocolate Chip Cookies
YouTube -
in fact in that time
(AUG 2007 October 2008).
I have eliminated a burdensome percentage of outstanding debts. Including:
100% of credit card debt
100% of student loan debt
100% of automobile debt
and yes.
Ive been making double payments on my mortgage (6 yrs left on a 15, I bought 40% off bubble top, 2006 with 40% down). double payments are tough, but doable. Immma stingy aligator armed sonvabitch.
Just like I am in the market.
now, where's my second stimulus in this global savings glut?
What we need is a good old fashioned bank run with the National Guard launching tear gas greandes before the open.
Otherwise the Nikkei & futures have a twitch of life in 'em and could ruin the great streak.
Anybody read in the newpaper today about that guy Jessie Owens and how he could win 4 gold medals at the Olympics? Hitler won't like that if it happens.
I love Nigella Lawso
"Ive been making double payments on my mortgage (6 yrs left on a 15, I bought 40% off bubble top, 2006 with 40% down). double payments are tough, but doable. Immma stingy aligator armed sonvabitch." cracker
I don't know whether to applaud you or call you a sucker.
Families to sue gymkhana mother accused of doping rivals’ ponies - Times Online
FFDIC, you're starting to bum me out. Got any links about shiny sparkly ponies???
MLM | Homepage | 10.08.08 - 11:01 pm | #
Families to sue gymkhana mother accused of doping rivals ponies
Anyone able to help me find out my ownership status if invested in a Ginnie Mae REMIC trust run by citi and citi goes bankrupt?
stunning
reversals
in
asia.
get me a countdown clock to another short covering rally that shuts the computers down into friday blow off top rally.
Anyone else holding PUTS these days?
I sold my remaining positions over the last two days as I'm expecting a bounce. (I thought WFC would never go down.)
But my 100% cash position didn't last long as I bought JAN $5 PUTS on LEN this afternoon.
I'm thinking of getting back into FITB and maybe JWN.
I'm thinking the prices of PUTS will drop after the short ban expires.
Anyone other than Anonymouse want to talk about their positions?
Well, I for one have gone over to the light side. Not that the problems are over by a long shot but I've decided the light at the end of the tunnel ain't a train.
Appreciate all who like me has seen this coming for years. For me it has been decades but I have a rep for being early. Today may be no exception.
If you don't mind, I'll just lurk and check in from time to time and may have a drink and talk a little treason.
There are some very very smart people adding to the CR community. I am the better for it.
Thanks and best regards,
Anonymouse
thanks for the NPR-Diane Rehm show link
she is such a brilliant and a good-fair person, I wonder however how much she enjoys the financial-economy talk
(not her strong point-focus ever in the past)
"Ive been making double payments on my mortgage (6 yrs left on a 15, I bought 40% off bubble top, 2006 with 40% down). double payments are tough, but doable. Immma stingy aligator armed sonvabitch." cracker
I don't know whether to applaud you or call you a sucker.
During that time frame, I'v been working on my pre-bankruptcy filing readjustment of assets plan and using my IRA to buy a place on the coast in South America. I applaud us both. Cheers
Or we could do:
bond - Google Videos
Nostrovia,
Anyone other than Anonymouse want to talk about their positions?
Philip Crawford
I like doggie, reverse cowgirl, and the "flipper."
Elvis,
you're a crack wit.
cheers.
Anon,
Belize by any chance?
YouTube -
Coldplay "Clocks" music video
Bond girl,
I have never heard of her, but I;m looking, I'm liking!
Damn you.
This board has become so much a day traders board...I guess I'm done...will lurk about a bit, but, it's not even fun to comment anymore...
Hopefully the crash flushes the trash...but at a gazillion post per post leaves no room for comment...I'm just out.
Nostrovia,
I like doggie, reverse cowgirl, and the "flipper."
Elvis | 10.08.08 - 11:12 pm | #
Dead on the toilet was a classic too.
Belize by any chance?
No the other side of the continent.
The story about the sheriff in Cook County, not doing anymore evictions is a little more complicated. It seems like the banks who foreclosed on the properties, didn't have a clue as to who was in them. They were renters, who didn't know anything about foreclosure, and the sheriff had to literally put them on the street. They lost their deposits and last month rent. Then they sued the sheriff. He wants the bank to do their homework.
Misean,
Remember if the Big Dipper is facing north, go long GE for the day. If Mars is on the horizon run like hell.
blackberry whine
Nothing to worry about, Citi ia probably just the deal trustee. The underlying loan payments are guaranteed by GNMA for timely principal and interest. write [see website] if still worried.
crabs
Criminy Misean, for a guy who took threads down for the ten count talking about glod, don't you think you may be overreacting a bit? Am I going to have to take up your slack at Lefty's? Not sure I have it in me.
Misean,
Understand how you feel. Me too.
Gee, a Misean addict and a Spengler addict jumping ship? It is either a sign that the end is neigh or a new Bull market has begun...
Coin toss!
'Happy trails to you, until we meet again.' Roy Rogers...
day traders need love too!
Misean,
You know we're at an inflection point when shows like "Fast Money" are the norm.
It's strange too, because it's happening right at the apex of the career of value guys like Buffett and Munger.
Wonder who'll win?
Remember if the Big Dipper is facing north, go long GE for the day
So which is the face of the Big Dipper? Is it the way Ursa Major is facing, or is it the point of the handle. These things confuse me.
sue writes:
Remember if the Big Dipper is facing north, go long GE for the day. If Mars is on the horizon run like hell.
and short the Q's if AAPL is in Uranus
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
This board has become so much a day traders board"
Hey, we don't make the market's rules, just trying to sort out every day's puzzle
it is fun, psy and a little bit of math (very little). would not do it if it were not fun.
Besides, I resent letting "people" play yoyo with my funds
Hopefully the crash flushes the trash...but at a gazillion post per post leaves no room for comment...I'm just out.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
I toook this as a joke by Misean. Maybe I'm the only one you gets the dead pan or Misean has really flipped.
Re: This board has become so much a day traders board
5000 point drops get people excited, but I imagine that as they burn cash, they will be less vocal in drumming up business.
I bought, AHR, LDK, and CCJ today.
All were about 75% off of recent highs, and make money (at least for right now).
I could not resist. As for calling the bottom, I may be a little early, but a lot of the non main index stocks are 75% off. Either that or my stash of silver dimes is going to be buying some groceries.
Either way I should be okay.
I agree with Misean, this place is getting crowded.
Someday this war's gonna end...
and short the Q's if AAPL is in Uranus
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 10.08.08 - 11:22 pm | #
A prime example of why I stick around after 10PM. I can hear Erin moaning hard about this tomorrow. Wake me up if she starts before 9:15AM.
I do remember the day that Misean said he was loading up on silver when it was at $20, because it was the last chance. And the same with SRS at about $120. Long-term is good. I just hope he didn't panic and bail too early. I like Misean. Don't want him to have to eat neighbors pets to survive.
I took this as a joke by Misean.
I thought he was just tired and making an excuse to go to bed.
I blame the extra long comment threads on that idiot who worked so hard to top 400 comments; started a bad trend that sent the threads over 1,000. Anybody remember who that guy was?
(quickly hiding my gerbils, while keeping an eye of Misean, 'cause they SORTA look like bob-tailed squirrels...)
Yes, and I agree, day traders are an annoyance during the market hours. But, that is why I prefer the housing posts. Less trading noise.
I can hear Erin moaning hard about this tomorrow. Wake me up if she starts before 9:15AM.
FFDIC
Oh. Uh... sorry. We'll try to keep it down.
Seriously, so many comments so little conversation. As mentioned above these were my comments about "Are we there yet?" a couple threads previous:
How much of the $60 trillion in esoteric financial instruments have unwound? What is the home price to income ratio? What is the difference between Fed lending rates and core inflation? What is the outlook for employment over the next several years? Nope, reverting to 2005 conditions is nowhere near enough reversion never mind overshoot. Heck, no major homebuilder has even gone bankrupt.
CR, we are moving in the right direction but there just isn't anything on the horizon with which to pull out of this trend down.
misean beens posting here since comrade mp had to eat conjures dope.
Nemo writes:
bobn --
...
He sounds pretty sure of himself, so I guess we can consider this a test of Technical Analysis, Anonymouse version.
Thanks for the translation. TA has always sounds like superstition dressed up with big words to me. It'll be interesting to see how this goes.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
This board has become so much a day traders board...I guess I'm done...will lurk about a bit, but, it's not even fun to comment anymore...
Don't be a pussy.
We'll see you tomorrow.
FFDIC,
Are you talking about Erin (twittie chippie) Burnett. I kinda like Malaria Bartarominia.
I have become impressed with the questions from Dillon Ratigan. He ain't a dummy like the rest.
Comrade Elvis,
"I toook this as a joke by Misean. Maybe I'm the only one you gets the dead pan or Misean has really flipped.'
It is a joke. Only kinda,
"I agree with Misean, this place is getting crowded.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Citizen AllenM |"
that would be a bid at too many posts.
We'll see.
Nostrovia,
CSC IN THE HOUSE!!!!
loving the CSC callout..
fucking pussy!!!
Elvis writes:
Yes, and I agree, day traders are an annoyance during the market hours"
Day traders post during market hours ?
(I am too busy... trading)
I agree with Misean, this place is getting crowded.
It was hard enough keeping up when all the comments were worth reading.
you people simply dont understand how many are watchin.
FT.com / Asia-Pacific - Asia joins in global rate cuts
Asian central banks cut rates
Central banks in Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong cut interest rates on Thursday in steps that closely follow Americas and Europes policy response to the financial crisis. In an extraordinary policy meeting Thursday morning just two weeks after its last rate cut, which had reversed course following a four-year rate raising cycle, Taiwans Central Bank of China lowered the benchmark discount rate to 3.25 per cent from 3.5 per cent.
Rob Dawg,
CR rolls with it. His blog is the best, but sometimes he has a tendency to lower his expectations de facto. However, his analysis is always spot on. Sometimes, he just doesn't appreciate the downside. I've learned a tremendous amount from CR. He rocks.
It was hard enough keeping up when all the comments were worth reading.
You'll have to refresh my memory, when exactly was that?
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
This board has become so much a day traders board...I guess I'm done...will lurk about a bit, but, it's not even fun to comment anymore...
Don't be a pussy.
We'll see you tomorrow.
Yeah you will...fuck I hae this pace...I always show when I shoul'nt
Nostrovia,
Elvis,
Word up.
Rob
What's so 'esoteric' about a credit default swap?
It's kind of like getting an insurance contract from a junk-rated insurance company.
Word up.
Rob Dawg
Back at you. Word.
I definitely concede the sheer mental exhaustion point. This crash has been traumatic to say the least. I have had the pleasure of screaming at my computer in frustration more than once.
I could not bear to watch Paulson make an idiot of himself today.
This is not over by a long shot, but one has to remember that with Federal money flowing like water over the market the losses will most likely stop. Real losses will no doubt continue as the dollar is debased, but hey, the market crash was fun.
Now we will have some temporary stability while the crisis will gradually shift to the end of the dollar hegemony.
I have been quite happy to post here, and glad for the anonymous way to vent my frustrations.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"There are 10^11 stars in the galaxy. That used to be a huge number. But
it's only a hundred billion. It's less than the national deficit! We used
to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical
numbers."
-Richard Feynma
Dollar is sure churning up the chop. It's about ready to break one way or the other ... I say other
Misean's not going to post any more? Wow, go long that company in Ventura, productivity is going to skyrocket!
Where do i submit my bids to manage assets in bailout?
I wish I had a dollar for every time some old dude took the time to bitch out the comment box.
"I remember when this place was great. Everyone was brilliant and focused like a laser beam. The standards were high, god dammit, not like today. Now there are functionally retarded, socially inept heathens who make this place unbearable. Why can't everyone be like me? Why can't the stupid people go to another blog. That does it, you bastards, I'll never post here again! Then you'll be sorry! This sucks."
These appear about once a week it seems. Some crotchety old fart wondering what his life has meant, drunk on two buck chuck, venting into a room of pissy nerds.
Way to go, old timer. Way to go. You'd make me rich at a buck a pop.
My WAG is that all major indices are in the grasp of the biggest parabola in decades which takes the DJIA on down to 8000 in days and a bottom at 7200.
A capitulation that disounts credit, earnings and political trouble.
Many companies won't survive the upcoming cash/credit squeeze, like airlines declining on high volume and heading imho toward $2. Holding puts started and added to from parabola top early Sep., with buy stops in scale down to catch the lightening fast end of the decline.
Allen M,
You're a cool kid.
I'll tell ya what bothered me more than anything else these past two weeks.
and thats the real people on this board that seemed to become Jas Jain disciples....
I had to turn it off for a couple days...
born and bred dopes...only goes so far.
I think the reason the visitors go below 200 at night is the other posters are delivering pizza to pay for their mortgages, credit cards, and/or stock losses. Sebastain just deliver my pepperoni, onion, and mushroom pizza. He offered me sex for $12, but I said no and gave him a quarter for a tip.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
This board has become so much a day traders board...I guess I'm done...will lurk about a bit, but, it's not even fun to comment anymore...
Don't be a pussy.
We'll see you tomorrow.
Yeah you will...fuck I hae this pace...I always show when I shoul'nt
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope | 10.08.08 - 11:34 pm |
I didn't write that post!
Gawd dammint leave me alone.
Wanker
Nostrovia,
Kid, shoot I'm 42 and employed as an economist- at least for a while more!!!!
I bought, AHR, LDK, and CCJ today.
I have a dirty secret: I've been following you in this trade. Damned if I can see the risk being outsized from the reward.
I think I've moved in larger than you -- a full year's worth of IRA contributions -- but as long as there's no FRE-style pref wipeout or BK I like the odds, even if all I'm getting is a 24% divie.
CSC ... ROFL at "some old dude"
You guys better enjoy this format since CR has definite plans in the works to change it - probably not for the better for some. Most of us seem to dislike restrictions and official registrations, etc. and came here to escape all that BS. Enjoy it while it last. My $00.02.
Comrade Misean: I don't see you with the two buck chuck unless you've distilled it through your homemade crockpot still. But maybe I give you too much credit...
AllenM: at a school or some other evil?
I didn't write that post!
I wonder how long before CR has to go to a registration system rather than an open forum?
He offered me sex for $12, but I said no and gave him a quarter for a tip.
Elvis | 10.08.08 - 11:40 pm | #
You got ripped off man! Ross got a BJ for a quarter!
Elvis writes:
Anyone other than Anonymouse want to talk about their positions?
Philip Crawford
somebody also asked about sombody holding teir puts
hey im not admittin to ever holdin my puts
Dawg -
My $.02 worth is that we are most definitely not there yet. However, we are due for a pause, an election, and a chance for everyone to nibble at the idea that we are there yet. FCB's around the world have fully opened the spigots (even Trichet has signed up). In the mid to long run, it won't make any difference at all.
Angry Saver has it exactly right. There is simply too much accumulated debt (I used the term broadly, to include CDS's, etc.) in the system. At least in the U.S. system. The economy cannot effectively service this debt. Therefore, all the pumping and printing will be for naught. The interviews with Michael Hudson over at iTulip highlight the problem in detail.
In the meantime, I suspect we'll have a 3 to 6 month respite. Time to get your house in order if you haven't. After that, you'd better hope you stocked up on Wolf brand chili and ammo.
Troy, I more than 40k into long positions since monday.
A significant portion of my liquid assets.
It is nice to know that a few others see things similarly.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"drunk on two buck chuck,"
Unless he bought a warehouse and stored it for four or five years, that isn't two buck chuck any more. Two buck upchuck is back to being Cisco, Nighttrain, or MD 20/20.
Citizen AllenM writes:
I definitely concede the sheer mental exhaustion point. This crash has been traumatic to say the least. I have had the pleasure of screaming at my computer in frustration more than once.
I could not bear to watch Paulson make an idiot of himself today.
So obviously you were never a Cubs fan right?
That link I posted earlier... the braintrust at USC talking about meltdown and solutions...
Lehman CFO is on the panel. This should be interesting.
Uncle B- government.
Not Federal.
That is it for clues, I like to be able to read this at work;-P
1.78 P/E on a REIT in my IRA and 24% divies I can pull out tax-free as long as I'm going to DeAnza CC at least half-time.
F'in eh.
CSC, etc, all,
Someone has been impostering me.. .CSC yor last post is very tight..,so have many others, I'm just runing out of energy tonight to deal with false posts.
I'll see ya'll tomorrow. Damn this kinda sucks.
Nostrovia,
FFDIC writes:
You guys better enjoy this format since CR has definite plans in the works to change it - probably not for the better for some.
If it happens, I will be sad to see that. I too mourn the loss of "high quality comments" but there are enough to make it worth while and if you want a tummy full there are other blogs where you can get that.
This has become important to me for its sense of community as we go through this crisis, crazies and trolls notwithstanding. I like the free-for-all exchange, even though it can be exhausting when the comments are flying. You can always skip the troll posts - I can generally tell in the first 15 words or so whether something is worth reading.
Humor would be lost, I'm fairly sure. And that would be too bad. It's perhaps what's needed most just now.
dryfly- I don't do lost causes;-)
That is almost as frustrating as talking to politicians.
"I could not bear to watch Paulson make an idiot of himself today."
The immediate question in my mind is "today as opposed to when?"
Please don't call him Paulson. His name is Satanson. I saw it on his driver's license.
(Real) Comrade Misean: That sucks dude. wtf? Who does that? Make it a great night.
[born and bred dopes...only goes so far.
cracker]
You're not kidding. I think he posts from a psych ward.
Citizen AllenM writes:
Troy, I more than 40k into long positions since monday.
I pooped $25K in today - told my broker 3-4 months ago "If the market goes solidly below 10K and everyone you know wants to sell - CALL ME". He did & I bought - made his day being I'm one of his pet bears - got more sitting on the side line... watching.
Oh and I think the economy sucks - I just am too clueless to know when it gets better - the curse of living at the end of the world - the last guy to know anything.
...and the sad thing is, as long as we continue to lend our fiat money into existence at interest, the debt can never be paid off. How utterly absurd.