Kudlow is an idiot. Cramer told you the big plan. Equity will pour in to the biggest banks and they will use it to make markets move. They will not provide all you small traders with convenient notice to closed you shorts.
You know what that means, stability will be delivered, at a price to be paid later.
America is willing to pay that price.
Who care about the FDIC more than 250k limit. Big banks are going to get guaranteed- the biggest backstop of all has just been put into place.
Why do I encounter soooo much resistance just pointing out the obvious?
How much banking do we need in this country? I think we are so overbuilt on banking that recapitalizing will stablize but the banks will still have to downsize.
Market has bottomed as predicted last night by financialtraders blog ( Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets ) . No need for any government support from tax payers. Do not let them use your money to mark up this market, and sell it later.
PS: check the live trading that the blogger did today. It is amazing, he nailed the bottom and the top today!
I threw that together from Yahoo's historical data. Basically, I took the data and did %change for each day. Then I found the high before the depression (381.17 on 9/3/29) and put in our high (14164.53 on 10/9/07).
Blue & Red = Dow in Great Depression converted to our numbers today (starting with our high, and then losing/gaining x% daily)
Yellow = Actual true numbers up to 10-10-08.
We're on track! Just a few more years and another ~40%
petit: Please enlighten me how this blog has pre-determined this day to be the bottom. Don't you have to have at least one additional trading day (on the upside) to declare a bottom?
I see how buying preferred saves the banks to fight another day.
But, with the real economy going into the tank because of the $14 trillion household debt overhang, rates now rising on Treasuries, and a projected Federal deficit of $1.5 trillion next year (under Obama!), I don't understand why some think of this as a silver bullet.
Darth Toll: Faster now theory resonates. Fearful that superior selling volume overwhelmed massive over-sold technicals. Make no mistake, the bulls threw everything into the advance today. It was partially muted. This is a turn from typical bear market reversals and rallies. Disconcerting. There needs to be follow through on Monday for the bulls.
they can stay in business and lend w/o reserves-capital is no longer a requirement.
will purchasing equity to inject capital really make diff? if they had no money to operate, yes, it might keep them afloat even when business goes to zero.
seems to me unless private sector begins buying debt, its still game over.
youd be a fool to buy any debt in this environment
@voodoo economist (previous thread): I don't understand why NEW banks couldn't be capitalized. Sure, money would flow out of the old banks into the new banks, but so what? Unless the "old" bankers are your friends and former colleagues. 700 billion at 10X leverage is 7 Trillion dollars. Those would be some fine, excellent banks, no?
Two big problems:
1) No time to set up new banks with working infrastructure, solid business teams, etc. Takes years.
2) Capitalizing new banks and decapitating old banks would cause a Lehman-to-the-Nth-power disaster among a tightly coupled network of contractual obligations.
Now, what they can and should do is selectively enhance the capital of ALREADY-FUNCTIONING banks that were sane (relatively) and are NOT doomed. In other words, put the money where it will do the most good. But we still have to unwind the doomed behemoths and it won't be pretty.
CR writes "Update: Paulson also said buying equity provided a bigger bang for the buck than buying troubled mortgage assets. (I'm looking for the transcript of the Q&A for the exact quote). This raises the question: Why buy assets at all? Oh well ..."
Because the original plan (from the bankers) was for the Feds to create a toxic waste dump. But Congress and the economists finagled it just enough that Paulson can now do what's really needed. And bigger bang for the buck is a powerful argument when Washington money is on the line...
I'm checking out for the weekend; see y'all later!
To those predicting Monday's opening already - sheesh, there are over 60 hours to go! You think NOTHING else is going to happen this weekend? Bwahahahaha!
CNBC keeps saying this is a bottom, but shouldn't more companies go out of business before we call a bottom? How long does the stock market typically stay down during a recession?
This ain't a bottom, because the banks will stash the cash. We'll get a bear market rally...but this things going down. We're at debt saturation. No more buwetts.
"CNBC keeps saying this is a bottom, but shouldn't more companies go out of business before we call a bottom? How long does the stock market typically stay down during a recession?"
Stock markets typically bottom 6-9 months before a recession ends. If you think this will be anything less than a severe recession you need to be on meds.
Is Citizen AllenM Sebastians brother? I know with wi-fi two teenage brothers can blog from the same basement bedroom.
Citizen AllenM, well if what you are saying is this A bottom and not THE bottom, then I think we can agree. Many traders are expecting the wave four up at any time so this would be ok with me (with the wave 5 capitulation selling to come later.) This makes sense.
The only thing that makes me a little skeptical about it is the number of bottom callers. A lot of folks have access to those same charts you are looking at and the market seems to stymie 95% of the people all of the time. So if a large group look at the charts and say "this is the bottom" maybe it will be a self-fulfilling prophesy for a very small until something else blows up, but it won't stick. The fundamentals haven't materially changed. I don't trust Paulson to do the right thing with the immense power he has been given. He is more interested in furthering the agenda of the pigmen banksters and increasing their wealth then stabilizing the actual economy or markets. This is what TARP was about, and that was his favored plan over an RFC-style intervention.
Furthermore, as credit and leverage decrease and go to money heaven, it is harder to find the money needed to engineer a huge rally. Once the washout selling actually happens, the VIX will plummet and the market will be as quiet as a church mouse for months and possibly years. A lot of folks will be out of stocks forever, having been badly burned and lied to and misled. Here's one guy's call on DOW 3,000 which sounds reasonable to me.
700 B is not enough for everyone. Which banks will be the winners and losers out of this deal? The ones which think they are on thin ice have been trying to raise/preserve capitals by selling off assets left and right contributing to the sell-off the past week perhaps. More volatility next week.
I highly doubt any Treasury plan will involve buying common stock. That would do nothing to help the banks' capitalization. Seems to me the banks have to sell new stock for it to make any difference. Either way it is dilutive to existing common shareholders.
If that is not what you meant about Treasury propping the markets on Monday, I misunderstood.
I went short the Dow (via DOG) just before close today. So far, Dow futures point to this being a good move. In my opinion we are in deflation and a general long term down trend in all markets. I find the $ strength mysterious, though.
Firstly, anyone predicting an opening on Monday is a fool. Markets closed.
""Update: Paulson also said buying equity provided a bigger bang for the buck than buying troubled mortgage assets."
This is an assertion, a claim without a warrant. In what way does it do so?
I'm not arguing either way. I'm saying Hanky has made a conclusion without an argument.
Further, this has been tried in most financial system crises. It has never worked. Why? Because the existing pool of capital minus crapital is not large enough. Debt saturation ends papering over stupidity.
The only reason to buy impaired assets is to establish a market price for them and to force their holders to mark them to market. At that point the zombies are identified and buried. The walking wounded can be salvaged, and the banking sector recapitalized on a public utility model.
This approach could never have been sold to Congress or to the banks on the receiving end of it, but what's unfolding is a rather fascinating way of getting there.
In other words, the reverse auction was never going to bail out the existing regime of idiot. It was going to force them to face the music. It can still serve that purpose.
Actually, I've heard the plan for the weekend is for all the G7 leaders to pick out their island in the Caribbean.
However, the Fed will hold firm to support American taxpayers. In order to prop up the confidence of US investors, everyone in the US will get a "Henry Paulson blew my $700,000,000,000 and all I got is this lousy t-shirt" t-shirt.
Berlusconi didn't give any details about what kind of rules leaders were looking to change, except to say that leaders are ``talking about a new Bretton Woods.''
USD is being hoarded by institutions world-wide to pay off USD deonominated debt. Remember that US was the biggest exporter of debt world-wide over the last 20 years.
I don't expect USD to plummet until the deleveraging is done.
Pavel: 64 years ago? Confidentiality?
Ok, draw a black line through the single reference to the single guy who is still alive that it might affect personally.
So now we have to trust Paulson to invest my money in the banks too big to fail. I can spell out who gets cash - MS, GS, BofA, WFC, C, and a smattering of small to mid size banks. What happens next? Hoarding, and then the ongoing failure of American capitalism.
Talk to me about the bottom next fall, when the recession is well and truly present for all to see and we've had a few months of 2004-era option ARM resets. Still many more peaks and valleys ahead on the big rollercoaster.
I need to see some homebuilder bankruptcies. Large ones...like Toll Bros., Centex, Hovnanian, or DR Horton. Which dumb banks are keeping these guys alive? Centex suspended its dividend today. Lennar cut its dividend 75% the other day. Some of these companies will fail, sometime.
"Main Street Bank had total assets of $98 million in total assets...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to its Deposit Insurance Fund will be between $33 million and $39 million."
t
Todo today ruminated that govmt may void contracts on cds , victims would be hedge funds. acceptable collateral damage to save financial institutions, but more forced selling. makes sense to do this at the top of a manipulated short squeeze rally.
This is great... the vatican is messing with us. There is actually a Vatican Secret Archives page on the Official Vatican website. But when you click on the Secret Archive link it takes you back to a home page.
After being blamed for rating subprime as AAA, I think the rating agencies are being "pro" active, or at least trying to stay current with the markets opinion/rating.
Speaking of the Vatican, where do they invest? I ran across a little company based in Scotland that claimed to manage their investments, but it looked a little hokey. Who's their broker? Do they have quants and pr guys employed directly in little rooms under the Pope's chambers?
So Hank's buddies have boatloads of shares they need to unload.
But there are too many sellers and not enough buyers.
So Hank forces the taxpayers to buy them.
Sells it as "you're getting equity."
When in reality we are being made to hold a flaming bag of dog poo.
Sounds like a great plan!
Lay down, Mr. and Mrs. Taxpayer. The bankers will be by soon to administer your bukkake. Call it a liquidity injection and be thankful you get something in the deal. It's your patriotic duty to be a spew receptacle.
"Pavel: 64 years ago? Confidentiality?
Ok, draw a black line through the single reference to the single guy who is still alive that it might affect personally."
Since we're talking about supposed
'secrets', obviously I can't respond to your question.
Uncle Billy, the Vatican is very old and in some ways is not at all like other institutions. It has a very different culture, motives. OTOH, the Church on Earth is made up of human beings, not spirits.
In some respects, priests are just guys, like everyone else. It is in the sacramental office of their order that they differ from you and me, but they don't spend 24 hours a day offering the sacrifice of the Mass. I could say more, but this is not the proper venue.
As St. Augustine wrote, the Church is a hospital for sinners, not a mansion for saints, or words to that effect.
There were heroes and martyrs of the Church during that war, and there were those who were not.
Harry Cheddar writes:
The next question: How do they decide who gets the cash injection and who gets kicked to the curb?
Harry Cheddar | 10.10.08 - 8:09 pm | #
I'm thinkin five card stud. Hold 'em would take to long, and time is of the essence.
Look at what else Paulson said--'Such a program would be designed to encourage the raising of new private capital to complement public capital.'
What this means is that the program is being designed so there is a ratio of govt capital and guarantee sufficient to get the money on the sidelines in. So 700B is more than itself.
On the bad side Naked Capt. scared me today when they wrote that prime brokers have arbitrarily raise margin requirements HFs. This caused some of the selling this week, but it won't be over on Monday.
Surviving banks must have strong enough balance sheet, not insolvent, and must show some ability to raise private funds in order to receive govt. recapitalization money. With current allowed leverage ratio of 10 to 12X, a dollar raised/received in effect allows banks to loan out 10 to 12 times. More bang for the buck compared to strictly buying impaired assets. Of course bank CEO would prefer the original Paulson plan (no dilution, rid of dead weights,...) but even the solid banks don't have the luxury of time for the other TARP to be implemented.
"Hmmm. Well I wouldn't be surprised if they were investing the same way everyone else was, that's for darn sure."
Uncle Billy,
Could be, but we don't get a quarterly financial report from the Vatican. It has many responsibilities around the world. Support of churches, for example, in places where the Church is persecuted and even underground.
But when you click on the Secret Archive link it takes you back to a home page.
When I click on the link I see tons and tons of secret files. Too many to ever read in one life time. The Pope knows who is pure of heart and he has the software to screen out black hearted heathens.
$1000 of shares in Delta Airlines a year ago -- you'd have $49 today.
$1000 of shares in AIG one year ago, you'd have $33 today.
$1,000 of shares in Lehman, one year ago, you'd have $0.00 today.
But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer on year ago, drank the beer, then turned in the aluminium cans for recycling refund, you would have received $214. Based on the above, the best current investment play is to drink heavily and recycle. This we call the 401-Keg plan.
A recent study found that the average American male walks about 900 miles a year. Another study found that Americans drink, on average 22 gallons of alcohol per year. Based on this, on average Americans get 41 miles to the gallon. Makes you proud to be American!
G7 just delivered nothing other than rhetorical pledge. Paulson's recap plan "as soon as we can" given the ineptness so far is not at all reassuring. Another bloody week to come. Perhaps continental Europe, Germany specifically, sees this as a chance to cripple the Anglo-Saxon financial axis.
People want transparency, well, this is going to give it to them. Banks that get 'capital injections' are insolvent or else why take them? Who wants Chris Dodd and Barney Frank as
'business partners'?
If Paulsen says government shares will not have 'voting rights' his word maybe his bond but it expires on January 20th next year. After that, who knows. Maybe Congress will mandate minority business loans or housing loans. Afterall an Obama Administration will have to pay off its voting blocs and the cheapest, easiest way to do that will be to use depositors money rather than a depleted federal treasury.
I note HSBC turned down money from the UK government.
REBear writes:
Berlusconi didn't give any details about what kind of rules leaders were looking to change, except to say that leaders are ``talking about a new Bretton Woods.''
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said political leaders are discussing the idea of closing the world's financial markets while they ``rewrite the rules of international finance.''
The idea of suspending the markets for the time it takes to rewrite the rules is being discussed,'' Berlusconi said today after a Cabinet meeting in Naples, Italy. A solution to the financial crisiscan't just be for one country, or even just for Europe, but global.''
A lot of commentators have described Iceland as a country run like a hedge fund. Well, it looks like all investors might get "gated". We are all Icelanders now?
This is silly and OT, but if the average American drinks 22 gallons of booze a year we're in big trouble. That works out to 7.7 ounces a day. For every one of us?
Pissed- calling me Seb's brother is ridiculous. I have only gone really long this week. Special circumstances indeed. Your prize is the Guvornator and your tax increase- share and enjoy.
If you wanted to irk me, you succeeded.
Now, as for the comment by Darth- it doesn't matter.
Paulson basically called the bottom in no uncertain terms.
He now runs the Hanky Panky hedge fund in collaboration with what is left of the big banks now essentially subsidiaries of the Fed.
The driveby of gold and silver today was helped by margin calls controlled by the big brokers/banks. Now, why did that happen?
Lehman liquidity provided the cover for killing off a sign of dollar flight.
This is a short term call to buy- and you have to understand the panic is now over by government fiat.
Listen to reality, there will be no list of stocks we are buying until it is too obvious to the market folks.
Just understand that the system will be preserved until stability returns and it can be restructured.
Main street needs to stop their panic- now it is too late.
Suecris, if you're old enough to remember Wilbur Mills, he of the House Ways and Means Committee as it was then called and wrote our tax laws, admitted, after he was caught in the Reflecting Pool at 2:00AM with an Argentine stripper, that he drank two quarts of bourbon per day! Thus the complexity of our tax code?
Editor's Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
The financial crisis continues: This weekend is certainly the single most important period for us to be aware of since the early days after 9/11 and the final days of the Cold War. This is because the global economic structure may be about to change.
The financial minds behind most of the world's more economically important countries are meeting in Washington this weekend as an official part of the G-7 finance ministers' meeting. The G-7 -- made up of the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom -- are meeting to discuss the global financial crisis. Later in the weekend they will be joined the rest of the G-20 countries, representing the world's 20 largest economies. The International Monetary Fund and World Bank also have delegations present, as they will be integral in implementing whatever decisions are made by the G-7 and G-20.
These talks are shaping up to be as critical as those seen in Bretton Woods, the site of the 1943 financial summit that laid the groundwork for the post-World War II global economic structure. The global financial crisis has evolved from being about single countries and "just" economics into something much grander. The global financial crisis is now a political one where these states will define how economic life will operate, and lay the groundwork for what is to come.
With the way the meetings over the next three days are set up, it looks as if the G-7 is coming toward a plan of action today, Oct. 10. It is then up to the G-7 members to get the rest of the world on board -- not a small task since most countries are looking out for themselves at the moment.
We see the meetings progressing as follow:
First, the G-7 is meeting as this piece is being written, digesting all that has happened in the past few days and coming up with a rough game plan to operate from. Global credit markets have seized up, and any plan with a hope of success must focus on injecting -- perhaps even forcing -- liquidity into the system.
Second, the G-7 will direct the International Monetary Fund and World Bank -- which operationally, if not technically, report to the G-7 -- to communicate this plan to the rest of the G-20 in a swarm of bilateral meetings to be held late Oct. 10 after the G-7 summit concludes, with more of the same scheduled for Oct. 11. The intent of this batch of meetings is to bring the entire G-20 on board with the rough game plan, and hammer out the worst of the inevitable disagreements.
Then, at 6 p.m. Eastern time Oct. 11, all of the G-20 will meet to hammer out the final details of how to address the credit crisis.
There will, however, be one exception to such a "smooth" process. Immediately after today's G-7 summit the G-7 representatives will be meeting with Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin for dinner. Russia is one of the few countries -- the others being Saudi Arabia and China -- that sits on a massive amount of cash, but unlike the other two, Moscow has been looking for ways to secure its own political needs and spite the West. This is most likely why Russia is getting its own special session with the G-7 followed up by bilateral meetings with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke and the delegations from the United Kingdom, Italy and India the morning of Oct. 11. Put simply, Russia represents a wild card that needs to be dealt with independently.
It is not clear how exactly the G-7 will attack the problem, but they have most of those who possess the capability of influencing the global crisis in one city at the moment. This weekend -- and especially that 6 p.m. meeting of the G-20 tomorrow -- will be a defining moment for the entire world.
History is being made -- don't take your eyes off it.
I mean every Maple Leaf or US Eagle that is now bought is $1000 lost to the banking system so of course the US mint is going to limit the sale of new coins. Yet its not as if the USG is short of gold bullion to pound out new coins unless its been pledged or sold. Am I wrong?
Who is going to buy up all these assets and with what money?
It's not just the use and Europe selling off stocks like when the dot-com crashed. This is a worldwide asset liquidation. Everything from stocks, commodities, real estate, emerging markets, etc. Everything that is leveraged to own. When the dust settles and you have cash to put to work....which are you going to buy first?
What if there is more "good investments" out there than there is solvent buyers to buy it all up.
Consider a small community that bought up a bunch of ferrari's. As they liquidate you can buy a Ferrari for half price....but more come up for sale....so you buy two more for the price of one.....and still more come available....pretty soon, as the dust settles you are almost out of cash...you have 4 ferrari's and there are dozens and dozens left for sale and yet everyone in the community who is solvent already has one or two....who is gonna buy the others. Sure they have some intrinsic value...but right now they are worth $0.
Perhaps the leverage lasted so long that stocks around the world, real estate, commodities, everything inflated way to high. Once the deleveraging starts perhaps those who are actually solvent are so few that they can't accumulate all that's out there and won't have anyone to immediately sell them back to. The future buyers will have to work and save along time to afford what the solvent have accumulated.
I think stocks could fall way way lower than we can even imagine.
The "plan" all along was to tank the stocks so that they could get a somewhat "Cheap" price for them. I can see them using prices from the swoon of this morning for there marks. If they don't then the financial stocks will continue to fall until they are satisfied with the price paid for the preferred shares. Using that as the floor so that they can call yet ANOTHER bottom.
It will work for a short period of time....like into options expiry.
It really all depends at what point they make the mark. If they have already then you can expect them to rise as the fix will be in for the "smart money".
Doesn't change the fundamentals one bit however these assholes will do anything to preserve the illusion of confidence and bonus preservation.
That "rally" today towards the close may have been the tip-off that the marks have been made or it was just stupid floor trader's cheering and wanting more manipulation from the PM's looking down from above.
I'm looking forward to more opportunity's to reload puts. May have to wait a few day's or a week but it will present itself.
One of the cruelest things will be the clipping of the public in the selling of puts- and eventually calls. Just wait as the socialized markets set in.
The world changed this week- everyone should examine their fundamental assumptions about what constitutes the markets. I did, and radically changed my outlook as a result.
"The Church owns 100,000 properties in Italy, 2,000 of them used as hospitals, clinics or rest homes. In Rome alone the Church owns 65 rest homes, 250 schools, 580 institutes, convents and monasteries and 18 hospitals."
98,000 income producing properties? Now that's a successful reit.
"The world changed this week- everyone should examine their fundamental assumptions about what constitutes the markets. I did, and radically changed my outlook as a result."
I sense that this is an unfalsifiable thesis by which everything that happens from now on can be explained. I have seen these before.
"We are grateful to The Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subject to the bright lights of publicity during those years. But, the work is now much more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a World Government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."
- David Rockefeller to Trilateral Commission in 1991
People say there is alot of "Cash" on the sidelines waiting to buy.
I don't get that. There can't be more "Cash" on the sidelines now than before. Isn't all "Cash" on the sidelines?
The whole definition of a leveraged sell-off is that the cash is needed to pay off debt. As asset prices drop, then the debt whole requires more cash to fill it. The decreased values of the assets eat more and more debt.
Say you owe $20,000 on a car...you think you can sell the car for $19,000 and pay the rest with $1000 cash. So you try to sell it but others are in the same boat. The price of the car goes to $17,000. Now you need $3000 cash to pay the debt back. So you sell the motorcycle. You bought that on credit though and you owe $2000 and it was worth $6000. So you try to sell it at the wrong time and only get $4000. Now your still $1000 short and you've devalued every other motorcycle on the market. So you sell more assets....it goes on and on, sucking up more asset values and cash. You could go from owning $1000 and having $20,000 equity in $2,000,000 worth of property (say you have $1000 equity in 20 things totally $2 million in value.) Once they deleveraging starts you are left with nothing, you still probably can't pay off the $1000 bucks and you have lost all your assets and dumped them in the market devaluing everyone else with those assets. Pretty soon you are left with a world full of cool stuff to buy and very few solvent buyers....
@Average Joe, Citizen AllenM
Yes, equity is a figment of the sell-side imagination.
The concept of equity is built on a foundation of debt.
Over $30 Trillion in global real estate and stock equity has been obliterated in just 6 months.
Debt is next in line
The bankers and bondholders are in the crosshairs of the most powerful force know to man.
The compound interest formula in reverse.
This panic will now be strangled. Remember, they now have resources beyond any that has ever been brought to bear. They will overcorrect the current imbalances, and then they will attempt to quiet the markets by selectively breaking certain players who are actively betting against the system.
What most of the folks here fail to realize is that the markets are now no longer free. When you trade against the government, you have to take into account their goals, and how much they are willing to invest to break you.
Maybe I am five minutes early, but a lot of folks appear to need to learn some lessons very quickly.
Note to Paulsen, buy Krispy Creme and Dunkin Donuts. Put franchises in State government agencies. DMV, Unemployment Insurance, seized bank branches. People are going to need a cup of coffee and a donut while they wait in line due to state government cutbacks and bankfailures. Forget about Morgan Stanley. Donuts and cheap coffee are more lucrative.
Citizen Allen, let's say your theory is right. How do TPTB deal with treasuries & interest rates?
Ultimately, they have to convince some segment of the world to trade real goods & services for.... "that paper" which seems to be falling out of favor.
How do they handle that? How does the Federal gov't keep functioning with rising interest rates?
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
"We are grateful to The Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subject to the bright lights of publicity during those years. But, the work is now much more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a World Government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."
- David Rockefeller to Trilateral Commission in 1991
Popperian dialog and tests don't cut it when the foundations of a system change.
This can be considered the Bernanke Put to prevent the GDII.
You want simple tests when more liquidity than most could even imagine is being put into the system at every available oriface. This is more like the fall of the wall, everything is now different.
CSC, it does include Bush, that is the hilarious stupidity. As is the notion that WP, NYT or Time and now add the sad demise of the WSJ the only domestic news source that was reliable until Murdoch murdered it. Now one must troll on-line for news..Bloomberg and FT are stil reliable. Very sad.
I think that we have created far to many nice "assets" and have been able to sell them to people who could leverage them. Instead of owning one car for $20,000 paid in full. The world instead owned a $1000 piece of 20 different things worth 20x the one car. Thus the illusion of wealth.
Now that deleveraging is occuring, we are left with way more assets than we need/can afford. And all that wealth is being destroyed wiping out those who are able to buy at lower prices.
Again, who is going to buy all this great stock? And once it's all bought by solvent people from others who need to pay off debt (and don't have the cash, otherwise why liquidate?) and the solvent have stock and the insolvent have the cash but use it to pay debt, who are the stock holders going to sell to?
So stock holders have to live off dividends and not expect to sell anytime soon at higher prices. If you have to depend upon dividends only to asses value...then how much is it worth.
If you can't resell a house and can only live of the rent..how much is it worth?
How much is stock worth when you know they can go to 0?
dd: I read the quote to infer that a new system, not based on national sov, was being implemented. I read that some folks would prefer a world goverened by elites and bankers.
But if some believe this includes POTUS, so be it. I see him as a vehicle, not a pilot.
The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."
I thought we were rid of this crap thinking. Apparently not. IMO.
AIG's toes writes:
The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."
I thought we were rid of this crap thinking. Apparently not. IMO.
Today's press is full of calls by world leaders for a new global finance system. Many want a global currency. So, yeah, we're not yet over it.
Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each.
The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest, and started catching them. The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their efforts.
The merchant further announced that he would now buy at $20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.
Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer increased to $25 each and the supply of monkeys became so little, that it was a rare event to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!
The businessman now announced he would buy monkeys at $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on his behalf.
In the absence of the monkey dealer , the assistant told the villagers. Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that my boss has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when he returns from the city, you can sell them back to him for $50 each. Thats a 44.1 percent markup!
The greedy villagers instantly agreed. They rounded up all of their savings and bought every single monkey inside the big cage.
Then they never saw the monkey dealer nor his assistant again, only monkeys jumping everywhere!
Now you have a better understanding of how the stock market works. Caveat Emptor!
This doesn't make any sense. The problem right now is that too much wealth is concentrated in too few hands.
Sure, they cany try to make that even narrower but... it's not working now. What's the point of manipulating for stock and bonds that are worthless because nobody can buy or make anything?
"Misha Mishima writes:
Pavel Chichikov, appreciated your quote from St Augustine. Have a nice night!"
Bless you, Misha.
WOLVES OF THE FOREST
In that wood where we were used to wander,
Camouflaged beneath the autumn forest litter
Of rough grey bark and tawny leaves I saw
Two brutal forms entwined by hairy belly and by paw
Rising and emerging, shaking off the earths disguise
To see who had observed them through outlandish eyes;
They saw me and gazed down the wooded hill Id climbed -
It was for them an interruption of their mating time
The male chimerical stood up, assumed a human form,
Coolly studied me unfazed, feigned to mean no harm,
But the female of the couple, submerged in some dark lens
Of water showed her rounded face, inhuman as the moons,
And I an interloper from the past remained stock still
For just a moment, then retreated backwards down the hill -
One wolf to the other said: He will not recognize
The future when he sees it through our innocent disguise
Today's press is full of calls by world leaders for a new global finance system. Many want a global currency. So, yeah, we're not yet over it.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 10.10.08 - 9:30 pm | #
What's our recourse? We would have to devise a system of world representation for localities.
My mind tries to navigate the maze of possibilities, like what if the money market my brokerage account uses as a sweep for me fails? What if I withdraw my money from the brokerage to deposit into my bank account is lost when I put it into a number of insolvent bank accounts? Financially speaking, I fear we have no future. Yes, Paulson may be able to maintain all the necessary smoke and mirrors to actually guarantee my many bank accounts, but inflation destroys the buying power anyway...I FEEL so hopeless about negotiating this maize, I'd like to buy some physical, but it appears that tens of millions already have that same idea....hopeless.
What's our recourse? We would have to devise a system of world representation for localities.
AIG's toes | 10.10.08 - 9:33 pm | #
Our recourse is to realize we have less power than we once believed. Some will not, however, and will continue with silly bumper stickers and wasted votes, deluding themselves that we have a government 'of the people.
El Cliffo writes:
Paulson may just ignite the Mother of All Sucker Rallies.
It may stabilize things for now, but I wouldn't want to own one of those bank's common shares unless their going to pay 2x current value. Wouldn't put it past Paulsen to do that, after all the crap he tried to get away with in the first place, but that's much harder to BS than overpaying for the "assets".
CSC: Has that David Rockefeller quote been verified? I remember him saying people thought he was part of a cabal to globalize and integrate and that he was proud of it... but...
The problem is 62 Trillion of Credit Default Swaps. Scam phony insurance contracts with zero reserves. An obvious scam to anyone who understands the most basic principles of insurance. The counter parties (whatever the fug that is) are a scam. This was all a bullshit accounting ruse to book phony profits by IB's, Hedge Funds and IDIOTIC insurance companies like AIG.
"I FEEL so hopeless about negotiating this maize, I'd like to buy some physical, but it appears that tens of millions already have that same idea....hopeless."
Misha, that's exactly how they want you to feel. And if you do, they win. Now who are they???
I wonder what's in Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. 158 year old archives?
The subject of Vatican archives came up earlier in the thread but I think Lehman's archives would be much more interesting. Especially since the dust has yet to settle from their fall.
Lots of bottom calling and folks who claim to know the future on this thread, but do we really even know the past?
I think you give Paulson too much credit. He's (and they) are opportunists who had several years to think and plan but clearly they can't predict all events.
Anyone who thinks that GW, or any national leader in view of the public for that matter, has any real control over anything (to say nothing of whether they have anyone's best interests at heart) should reexamine their premise and and do it post-haste.
Might depend on what Rockefeller we are speaking of. As I recall one of the Rockefellers did more than express a desire to globalize and integrate, he actually went and did it in the jungles of New Guinea.
Provided a fine meal for the inhabitants through his initiative.
"A disturbing image but it can only work through the use of brute force.
I don't think it will work, it hasn't been particularly successful in the past."
It can work, of course. But will there be human beings as we know them now? This is just the beginning. The 'elite' must see the future as a choice between chaos and practical and effective social control.
Personally, I find the medieval and Renaissance popes and scholars, for all their obvious faults, to be a lot more inspiring as an elite. The best of them believed in much more than power and control.
OMG. I just realized why Obama is fake. I mean, his whole history is kooky. He's at Harvard Law Review but he does nothing. Hardly anyone remembers him, the whole birth certificate thing is just plain inexplicable, the interplay with the Clintons...
Is Obama backed by the other side?
Because I do believe there's more than on coalition.
Kona: Pep up! We got work to do bud. Cha-Ching Ratings Conglomerated, SpA needs to position itself as the MOARA (Mother of all ratings agencies) of the new era.
Anonymous writes:
We will kill the ones who eat us and eat the ones we kill. Then we will march on a road of bones to victory.
Anonymous | 10.10.08 - 9:44 pm |
"As I recall one of the Rockefellers did more than express a desire to globalize and integrate, he actually went and did it in the jungles of New Guinea."
Michael. The Asmat people of New Guinea probably killed him and preserved his head in one of their men's houses.
Re: Kona: Pep up! We got work to do bud. Cha-Ching Ratings Conglomerated, SpA needs to position itself as the MOARA (Mother of all ratings agencies) of the new era.
Yah! This is a new era, and change is a challenge!
Obama is a fake, but with McCain wanting to buy mortgages, well, what's the difference. I will vote, don't get me wrong, but...what's the difference? Either you want the slow ride to extinction...(the elitist country club republican type) or the slightly faster ride to extinction (the liberal democrat who thinks he can take care of what he thinks are your real personal needs). The country club republican is slightly more honest, but just being a little more honest is like being just a little pregnant
It has already failed. The plan was set out months ago and Paulson thought he could accomplish it in favorable markets. BSD that he is, like Cheney he thought chaos was a time to profit. But Hank is abandon; out there with his ass hanging out without a lifeline. Where is Cheney these days? Cheney is the administration and where is he? Why isn't he supporting Hank? Why isn't the whole administration on display the way they were for the Iraq WMDs? Where's Chertoff..what with Galveston being wiped away and now an national economic emergency? Where are they all? Why are they all hiding?
Because failure is in the air; much as it was on 911 when they all ran away and left Rudy to sort it out.
There are no grand plans because these idiots couldn't plan a trip to the bathroom. Yes there are grand delusion specters of world domination but it all stops when they gotta take a piss and can't find the facilities without a guide.
There are no grand plans because these idiots couldn't plan a trip to the bathroom. Yes there are grand delusion specters of world domination but it all stops when they gotta take a piss and can't find the facilities without a guide.
But there's always SOMEONE that sees an opportunity and takes it. IMO, Obama has generated a cult following, which is easily extensible to a world scale. For good or ill, it can grow beyond initial expectations.
How are they going to control the impact of rising interest rates? The entire subprime fiasco was an atttempt to circumvent the long-term up cycle that started in 2003.
How do they maintain control with rising interest rates and $12 trillion in short-term debt?
I just don't see it.
It's an unpredictable scenario.
I've thought about it for about a decade and I'm still not sure how it can play out.
"I'm in the midst of a wake, for my divorce and the times they are a chang'n"
Hang in there. At the time I thought my divorce was the worst thing that ever happened to me. It turned out to be the best thing. (When someone suggested that very thing to me at the time, I got very angry...) Whoocouldanode?
After you've stuffed your mattress, <a href="http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/>One you can't whistle to.
Instead of Democrats going back to classic New Deal economics where we prime the pump of the economy and start money circulating among the population through saving homes, creating jobs and building a new infrastructure, our leaders chose to accelerate the wealth of the nation upwards. They did so in a way that was destructive of free-market principles. They ripped away all the familiar moorings. We are in an uncharted sea where the traditional roles of the political parties are being switched. The Democrats have unfortunately become so enamored and beholden to Wall Street that we are not functioning to defend the economic interest of the broad base of the American people. It was up to the Republicans to protect not just a so-called free market but the American taxpayer and attempt to block this. This is an outrage. This was democracys Black Friday. ...
We had two take-it-or-leave-it propositions and the second one was worse than the first, Kucinich said, referring to the plan that came loaded with pages of tax cuts. Tax cuts are antithetical to a bailout. We never solved the problem. There were never any hearings on the bill. This premise, that we could prop up the stock market with a $700-billion investment and create some liquidity, was flawed. The problem is that banks do not want to loan to each other. It is not a liquidity problem. Banks are afraid they are going to collapse in short selling. There is a war going on between security firms and banks. Banks are under assault. They are not loaning. The dynamic is driven by the Accounting Standards Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Fed.
Uncle Billy,
"They" want you to borrow, buy and be happy.
"They" require more credit and debt to feed the compound interest formula.
The equity markets are simply a skimming operation.
Housing was the last supper.
Gold is in hiding and cannot be skimmed, but it can be 'coaxed' out of hiding with food when the masses are starving.
"They" control the food.
Its a lot easier to manufacture voters than it is to manufacture taxpayers.
You can't apply Keynes if you can't borrow and by the time Obama gets the keys to the White House, if he ever does, its going to be a run down neighborhood.
If all we can do is exploit one another it's not just that the species turns out to be pathetic in its limitations. It becomes incapable of the kind of cooperation that ensures survival.
The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.
I wish it was The Omen.
Unfortunately, in the real world, the cast of supra-national intellectual elites are played by Jerry Lewis, Don Knotts, Sacha Baron Cohen, Mike Meyers, Howard Cosell, Gary Coleman and ALF.
There's an easy way to understand how the international system grapples with difficult crises requiring close cooperation from people who are normally in direct competition.
Uncle Billy: I don't see the clip handy. It may have been in a larger clip I watched.
The belief that our leaders are retarded is widespread. I believe this is intentional. But I understand that many people think that the top of our I-banks is the domain of idiots, that the men who grasp power are stupid, etc. I don't buy it. I believe they lie about intentions as this benefits them. Looking stupid to the powerless proles is of no concern to them. They hate you.
I guess we'll find out now. If we all retreat to our nations and suffer our retards, I will have been wrong.
But if the top of the food chain gets their way, then some will be open to the possibility that we were mislead by their intent, not their abilities.
If the people believed that the top were intelligent and benevolent, we would expect mbetter results for us. As it is, we expect them to "screw up," and understand when it affects us negatively. Ah...just what President Columbo would want.
If they're such idiots, you all should have no problem outperforming and outsmarting them all the way to the top. Good luck!
They are stupid even though they are the smartest people ever because BSDs are not ruled by their brains. They make intricate master plans and they go to trade and the gorilla takes over. Brains go bye-bye.
Anyone notice the crash in the CAD over the past week ?
Capitulation | 10.10.08 - 9:34
Yep, some Aussies and me were talking about our currencies on another thread. No way we can afford American manufactured products now. Good thing China can pick up the slack.
Maybe that is life, the expression of effort, the conspiracy of compromise, the challenge of the future versus the reality of gravity:
Image gallery of a zoom sequence
The Mandelbrot set shows more intricate detail the closer one looks or magnifies the image, usually called "zooming in". The following example of an image sequence zooming to a selected c value gives an impression of the infinite richness of different geometrical structures, and explains some of their typical rules.
So am I the only one who thinks the G7 is gonna make Japan fall on the sword this weekend? The ridiculous rise of the JPY is causing the unwind of the carry trade proceed at ridiculous proportions.
It wouldn't be the first time the G7 gave Japan the finger (Louvre Accord).
Pavel: I was thinking that no, no this is not all we are. I mean we who are not just this. So how bout we divide the world into those who wish to exploit each other and those who wish to live on a higher plane? Divide the world in half. If the carnivores decide they want to come over to the light, then we let them sit in purgatory for a year, make sure they're really with the program, and then open the gates for them too. It would be painful watching them butcher each other and swindle each other, but this way the concept of "choice" is very obvious and significant and helpful.
Interesting, the state's will really have a budget shortfall after this week,
big capital losses, already underfunded pension plans being just nuked, higher umemployment, less consumer spending, less gasoline consumption and lower real estate taxes. Unlike the past, the health care and pension obligations are a much larger percentage of the budget.
"There's an easy way to understand how the international system grapples with difficult crises requiring close cooperation from people who are normally in direct competition.
It doesn't."
And the irony is that that is one of the most optimistic-- and valid-- statements in this entire thread.
If they're such idiots, you all should have no problem outperforming and outsmarting them all the way to the top.
It's not a matter of intelligence, it's a matter of ethics. As Secretary of Treasury, Paulson's responsibility is to the people of the United States, not his Delta Phi Pho Phum or GS buddies.
It's easy to lie and cheat.
Not cheating is hard.
But it makes it a lot easier to pull the guillotine handle.
I quit my job today. I've been in moral quandry about it for weeks. So far I've gotten something like 15 phone calls trying to talk me out of it but it's not worth.
I'm going back to my parent's house to watch television.
"That was nothing. It was an appetizer an aperitif, foreplay if you will. A whetting of the beasts appetite, nothing more"
If there was one thing I learned 20 years ago it was that no one knows what is going on in the Kremlin, except people in it who have no intention of telling you. Why should they? Bloody foreigner.
However, I once got a peek, and I have never been so scared. Just knowing was terrifying.
I had an article about it in Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in November of '91.
quit my job today. I've been in moral quandry about it for weeks. So far I've gotten something like 15 phone calls trying to talk me out of it but it's not worth
It's not a matter of intelligence, it's a matter of ethics. As Secretary of Treasury, Paulson's responsibility is to the people of the United States, not his Delta Phi Pho Phum or GS buddies.
No. That is YOUR expectation of his responsibility. HIS beliefs may not be the same.
I agree about ethics. They are drilled into the lower classes to keep them in line when nobody is looking. Religion used to work, now ethics. If that fails, the iron fist comes out.
But it takes both intelligence AND a lack of ethics to be the top predator.
If the individual is not smart, his organization will be loaded with brains. And he will be their lead singer.
Sorry, but these dudes aren't on our side. They are selfish, power hungry bastards. Their only fear is being held accountable. It almost never happens (except by betrayal within the top).
" I just realized why Obama is fake. I mean, his whole history is kooky."
Good start...now add that he's an arab and a muslim, a terrorist, he's black, he speaks well, he's educated, he's backed by Volcker, and oh yes, he's black...he couldn't possibly be competent, intelligent or you betcha, a real American. Fine. You've learned Palin's stump speech. Nice to see McSame's PR people working overtime. Hope your check clears.
OT - I've been watching a CSPAN/Council of Foreign Relations presentation on the G7/Global Financial Crisis conference. I wonder if the French would allow us to trade Paulson for Christine LaGarde, their Minister of Finance. Holy Mackerel, a Finance Minister that understands the issues and can calmly and clearly explain them. Oil on the troubled waters.
McCain is bought and paid for as is Obama. Ron Paul is probably as well, but we just havne't seen his backers yet, have we? We need a different system.
UB wrote:
McCain is bought and paid for as is Obama. Ron Paul is probably as well, but we just havne't seen his backers yet, have we? We need a different system.
"Pavel: I was thinking that no, no this is not all we are. I mean we who are not just this. So how bout we divide the world into those who wish to exploit each other and those who wish to live on a higher plane? Divide the world in half. If the carnivores decide they want to come over to the light, then we let them sit in purgatory for a year, make sure they're really with the program, and then open the gates for them too. It would be painful watching them butcher each other and swindle each other, but this way the concept of "choice" is very obvious and significant and helpful."
We would have to become them. Anyway, as a Catholic I remain extremely skeptical about my own 'goodness.' We all go into the world as soiled and broken as anyone else, and after all, how could we ever learn anything or help anyone if we didn't need help ourselves? Where believers differ from those who don't believe is that we know that the source of help doesn't begin in other human beings.
quit my job today. I've been in moral quandry about it for weeks. So far I've gotten something like 15 phone calls trying to talk me out of it but it's not worth
Sometimes you just have to learn from a bad experience and go on.
Henry Paulson said the U.S. will buy equity ``as soon as we can'' in banks and other financial institutions "to restore market stability."
The time to restore market stability was from each day to the next, during the last 50 years, by not promoting ever-more highly leveraged, unsustainable, private and corporate credit borrowing.
But you consistently chose to not restore market stability, by selecting instead the path of unwarranted credit growth. Now you are about to discover the law of unintended consequences: wherever you go, there you are.
We really need more transparency in government, I used to have do a lot of legal research in grad school. The federal register went from being a pamphlet in the early 1800's to now being the equivalent of a several volume encyclopedia each year now and congress probably works less. We should have simple votes not complicated with payoffs and earmarks etc..
The process of governing has become severely corrupted.
If all we can do is exploit one another it's not just that the species turns out to be pathetic in its limitations. It becomes incapable of the kind of cooperation that ensures survival.
Is this all we are?
Pavel Chichikov | 10.10.08 - 10:05 pm | #
Fundamentally, no, it is not who we are. However, it is what people have been taught and told time and time again over many many decades (and if you like, centuries) so this is what we have become.
Until more people start making the conscious decision to think past "conventional wisdom" as it is handed down to us by experts and media, and begin thinking more like adult individuals rather than herd children things will unfortunately continue as they are.
But here's to things looking up. I heard that change is in the mail with my new pony
We also have to down the rhetoric about economic growth, does the country have to grow every year, was it worth allowing a shadow banking system to exist to make GDP look better, so what if it contracted 1-2% for a couple years. It's really only a political talking point, the george bush sr recession was a nothing event in the scheme of things, but we made it out to be a crisis.
The belief that our leaders are retarded is widespread. I believe this is intentional. But I understand that many people think that the top of our I-banks is the domain of idiots, that the men who grasp power are stupid, etc. I don't buy it. I believe they lie about intentions as this benefits them. Looking stupid to the powerless proles is of no concern to them. They hate you.
IMO, one of the most important things to grasp about the Babylon system is that it is the system that is exploitive, not the people controlling it. The rat race is a daisy chain rape. Everyone is exploited in Babylon, from the kings to the peasants. Have you noticed yet that one of the things Hank Paulson is stealing is his own life?
From a technical perspective, weak states routinely put unqualified individuals in leadership positions. They're weak for a reason. Limited power rotation and limited criticism do not breed good policy, quite the opposite. You don't need to be a genius to ruin a state, just greedy and lacking in foresight. Once the parasites have battened on, it's very hard to break free of maladministration.
I guess we'll find out now. If we all retreat to our nations and suffer our retards, I will have been wrong.
If you are looking for effectual international institutions at this time, you are going to be disappointed.
The modern international system is far too complex with far too many disparate interests to ever bring it under steerage. I would be fascinated to watch someone try.
For the last year I have been playing against the fed, the big boys, hedgys etc as a short..The .75 rates cuts, taf, tslf etc etc..
How about the summer when bad news happened everyday but they somehow kept the market up..I was wading into waves that I haven't surfed before, I have learned from all of you..
Banning shorts was like taking out Reggie Bush on the 4th and 2 against Texas for national championship. He was their wildcard, if they could put him in motion they would have gotten the 4th down..Same thing here...
Taking the shorts out of the market helped this meltdown big time...no positive leverage
Those big runs were normal after last March and during summer. They needed the shorts to panic with big swings not little token push that couldn't deliver thier blow and hurt thier or your psyche and trading account, though you thought your moves were right after doing your due diligence.
Today's action is something we've seen in the last year and a half, I think they will push up in am to show the world thier here to help.
I think we do see that 6.5 dow..maybe after new year...no bottom calling here...I believe the fed, treasury may have started buying into shorts while we were talking over the ban period or before bailout passed...
I'm hoping that Paulson's plan is for the taxpayers to get preferred stock plus warrants to buy shares. This gives the taxpayers more protection and the banks have more freedom.
This makes a lot more sense than letting banks dump their worst mortgages on the taxpayers for a premium price.
"Everyone is exploited in Babylon, from the kings to the peasants. Have you noticed yet that one of the things Hank Paulson is stealing is his own life?"
so what if it contracted 1-2% for a couple years. It's really only a political talking point,
GDP growth is used for budget and deficit forecasting. Negative growth for a couple of years greatly speeds up that freight train of unfunded liabilities heading right for us
Sometimes you just have to learn from a bad experience and go on
Dude, I'm fifty. I've plenty of experiences. The miracles of the free market have turned the IT market into one big game of politics and it's incomprehensible to me these days.
Or, actually, what's worse is that it's not incomprehensible. Like with Paulson, Bush and Obama. I can ferret out some of it to know there's a lot that's not right or manipulated, but I can't figure enough out to stay clear of it.
Byz: I do not disagree with you. But I do think your portrayal of the system is a little limited. We are not merely a herd and a shepherd. Some, to steal from Orwell, are more 'equal' than others.
When bankers realized that they could bring Kings to their knees, and thus affect entire countries with a wad of loot, I believe they saw a path to greater power. Having learned from powers of the past, they were smart enough to not desire to be the man with the sceptre. Rather they could buy that man and have (a degree of) control that way. If the masses got angry and chopped off a head, the power could install another rep in his place and keep on trucking. I believe this element of the power structure is missing from your post.
If you and I found ourselves more powerful than Kings, would we now do everything we could to maintain, if not grow, that power? Would we not want our children and grandchildren to inherit our accomplishment? I think so. And I think that has been done wisely, below the spotlights of the governed.
This has been alluded to by many Presidents as well as other high power figures.
Do you think it is all smoky room conspiracy theory? I do not.
Have you noticed yet that one of the things Hank Paulson is stealing is his own life?
Have you realized yet that he has almost nowhere to store his $500 million in booty that isn't subject to theft or devaluation?
That's what I don't understand about the thing. The whole point of the United States was that it was successful and safe. What's the point of turning it into Mexico? Ultimately it doesn't benefit people like Paulson. What, he's going to live on Bermuda for the rest of days?
"Would we not want our children and grandchildren to inherit our accomplishment"
Angelo Mozilo's justification for walking away with half a billion dollars was that he had a big family with grandkids that would need college money, etc.
Before expiring from a very very rapid cancer, Ameriquest founder Roland Arnall left his position as Bush appointed ambassador to Netherlands so he could be close to his son.
Paulson will leave in January and spend the rest of his days trodding through jungles and observing animals and his birds. At least went he dies the money will more than likely fund WWF or some other worthy cause.
I'm going back to my parent's house to watch television.
And you're 50 years old??? Make it s short visit for their sake. They have devoted many years raising you to be the man you are. Please don't spoil it for them in their old age........
I make no claims about the subject of this speech by JFK. Instead I ask you what you think he was referring to. Did this speech get him killed? By Oswald?
That's what I don't understand about the thing. The whole point of the United States was that it was successful and safe. What's the point of turning it into Mexico? Ultimately it doesn't benefit people like Paulson. What, he's going to live on Bermuda for the rest of days?
***** Is what's going on now a way for the world to plunder the United States? We've talked about mysterious elites of 'themses', but maybe it's a more widespread cabal of pirates, working through the UN and international agencies and spreading third world doctrine in the universities that is against the first world power that would be the ideal bastion of a Teddy Roosevelt.
Sure, there would be elites behind it, but they would be the kind of elite that would simply like to bring down the US and then fade away into the jungle leaving the booty to the less philosophically inclined of their pirate brethren.
The analysis you have proposed seems to me to assume that shares in functioning companies will never pay dividends. If there are dividends, then there will be an absolute floor on share prices at some multiple of the divident payout. And if share prices are unacceptably low at that multiple, shareholders can demand that a larger fraction of earnings be paid as dividends, so that the share price approaches a reasonable multiple of earnings.
I grant that earnings will be lean for a while, in view of the recession. But I think that share prices are not as vulnerable over the long term as you suggest.
Well this will all be one big moot point as soon as we get rid of our dependence on the physical world. Download your personality into a chip, and then you can very vividly run as many empires as you like or tend as many routabagas as you want, without stepping on anyone else's toes. You can invent 5th order derivatives and launch them at will. It will be far easier to be "human" when we finally get rid of these meat-suits.
All of the biggest banks now are too big to fail.
Kudlow is an idiot. Cramer told you the big plan. Equity will pour in to the biggest banks and they will use it to make markets move. They will not provide all you small traders with convenient notice to closed you shorts.
You know what that means, stability will be delivered, at a price to be paid later.
America is willing to pay that price.
Who care about the FDIC more than 250k limit. Big banks are going to get guaranteed- the biggest backstop of all has just been put into place.
Why do I encounter soooo much resistance just pointing out the obvious?
Someday this war's gonna end...
Nemo!!!!!
ur givinz me the cash?
How much banking do we need in this country? I think we are so overbuilt on banking that recapitalizing will stablize but the banks will still have to downsize.
Is CR breaking into Doc's meth lab? The posts are coming faster than virgin on prom night.
CR, I have noticed a faint twinge of disqust lately in your writings. They have not impressed you, have they?
Let's at least be happy that Paulson finally saw the light and will buy convertible preferred equity and not bad assets.
I'm ticked off that he does not demand voting rights, though,
MoT,
true, but we don't need to debank in 20 minutes.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Gary - That was not neccesary.
Lol Gary
They they still think that this posturing will help restore confidence in this mess?
"Why buy assets at all?"-- indeed. Should at least check to see if it would be less expensive to buy Senators, if that is the issue...
2 small banks shutdown by FDIC tonight.
Shouldn't we see a schedule of stock purchases before they're bought?
Market has bottomed as predicted last night by financialtraders blog ( Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets ) . No need for any government support from tax payers. Do not let them use your money to mark up this market, and sell it later.
PS: check the live trading that the blogger did today. It is amazing, he nailed the bottom and the top today!
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: Stock Market Crash 2008 Ended Today 10-10-2008: Back to normal trading
I think the taxpayer will be lucky to get a Pickle Surprise after all this 700 billion tom foolery.
YouTube -
Get first-in-line shares that pay DIVIDENDS, plus an option on common shares at the market's price when the deal is done.
I'd like to see what I'm buying before deciding.
Isn't the "binding the State and the Corporation, along with the Church", the model of Italian Fascism?
Well welcome to Operation Enduring Democracy.
expect Bretton woods revisit
DOW Great Depression vs Today graph:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pGy0BQU1PZ9AYrZgFwaFWHQ&oid=2&output=image
I threw that together from Yahoo's historical data. Basically, I took the data and did %change for each day. Then I found the high before the depression (381.17 on 9/3/29) and put in our high (14164.53 on 10/9/07).
Blue & Red = Dow in Great Depression converted to our numbers today (starting with our high, and then losing/gaining x% daily)
Yellow = Actual true numbers up to 10-10-08.
We're on track! Just a few more years and another ~40%
petit: Please enlighten me how this blog has pre-determined this day to be the bottom. Don't you have to have at least one additional trading day (on the upside) to declare a bottom?
Paulson may just ignite the Mother of All Sucker Rallies.
I see how buying preferred saves the banks to fight another day.
But, with the real economy going into the tank because of the $14 trillion household debt overhang, rates now rising on Treasuries, and a projected Federal deficit of $1.5 trillion next year (under Obama!), I don't understand why some think of this as a silver bullet.
More bailing out of the Titanic with a sand pail.
Darth Toll: Faster now theory resonates. Fearful that superior selling volume overwhelmed massive over-sold technicals. Make no mistake, the bulls threw everything into the advance today. It was partially muted. This is a turn from typical bear market reversals and rallies. Disconcerting. There needs to be follow through on Monday for the bulls.
Gold dropped like how much today? Deflation!
a. taxpayer
Buy everything on monday.
i dont get it
they can offload garbage at premium
they can stay in business and lend w/o reserves-capital is no longer a requirement.
will purchasing equity to inject capital really make diff? if they had no money to operate, yes, it might keep them afloat even when business goes to zero.
seems to me unless private sector begins buying debt, its still game over.
youd be a fool to buy any debt in this environment
I say buy GS, MS, GM, F
dafox: nice work! fits with what I 'see' as well!
but bear in mind, I don't know shit
youd be a fool to buy any debt in this environment
Hmm, I wonder what that says about buying equity?
Why buy assets at all? Oh well ...
Projected Treasury response:
Because shut up, that's why.
@voodoo economist (previous thread):
I don't understand why NEW banks couldn't be capitalized. Sure, money would flow out of the old banks into the new banks, but so what? Unless the "old" bankers are your friends and former colleagues. 700 billion at 10X leverage is 7 Trillion dollars. Those would be some fine, excellent banks, no?
Two big problems:
1) No time to set up new banks with working infrastructure, solid business teams, etc. Takes years.
2) Capitalizing new banks and decapitating old banks would cause a Lehman-to-the-Nth-power disaster among a tightly coupled network of contractual obligations.
Now, what they can and should do is selectively enhance the capital of ALREADY-FUNCTIONING banks that were sane (relatively) and are NOT doomed. In other words, put the money where it will do the most good. But we still have to unwind the doomed behemoths and it won't be pretty.
CR writes "Update: Paulson also said buying equity provided a bigger bang for the buck than buying troubled mortgage assets. (I'm looking for the transcript of the Q&A for the exact quote). This raises the question: Why buy assets at all? Oh well ..."
Because the original plan (from the bankers) was for the Feds to create a toxic waste dump. But Congress and the economists finagled it just enough that Paulson can now do what's really needed. And bigger bang for the buck is a powerful argument when Washington money is on the line...
I'm checking out for the weekend; see y'all later!
To those predicting Monday's opening already - sheesh, there are over 60 hours to go! You think NOTHING else is going to happen this weekend? Bwahahahaha!
CNBC keeps saying this is a bottom, but shouldn't more companies go out of business before we call a bottom? How long does the stock market typically stay down during a recession?
youd be a fool to buy any debt in this environment
Hell, what else we got?
Who wants to go halfsies with me on Iceland?
This ain't a bottom, because the banks will stash the cash. We'll get a bear market rally...but this things going down. We're at debt saturation. No more buwetts.
Nostrovia,
Who wants to go halfsies with me on Iceland?
No way. Now if it was an island nation...
char writes:
CNBC keeps saying this is a bottom
~~~~~~~
noone knows if this is THE bottom, if the lows are tested on Monday we may have a near term bottom ...
DING DING DING!! It's Friady guys!
PR-99-2008 National Bank Acquires All the Deposits of Meridian Bank, Eldred, Illinois
PR-98-2008 Monroe Bank & Trust Acquires All the Deposits of Main Street Bank, Northville, Michiga
"CNBC keeps saying this is a bottom, but shouldn't more companies go out of business before we call a bottom? How long does the stock market typically stay down during a recession?"
Stock markets typically bottom 6-9 months before a recession ends. If you think this will be anything less than a severe recession you need to be on meds.
Is Citizen AllenM Sebastians brother? I know with wi-fi two teenage brothers can blog from the same basement bedroom.
Apropos transparency, why does the Vatican have secret WWII era files???
On 50th Anniversary of Pope Pius XII's Death, ADL Calls on Vatican to Open Its Holocaust Era Archives
yay, we ownz banks!!!
Can we haz a toaster with that bank, plz?
I still would rather we own pizza parlors and get free pizzas, though.
Iceland is now for sale. On eBay
http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/Country-for-sale-ICELAND-99p-start-price-no-reserve_W0QQitemZ320308801162QQcmdZViewItem?hash=item320308801162&_trkparms=72%3A1298|39%3A1|66%3A2|65%3A12|240%3A1318&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14
Citizen AllenM, well if what you are saying is this A bottom and not THE bottom, then I think we can agree. Many traders are expecting the wave four up at any time so this would be ok with me (with the wave 5 capitulation selling to come later.) This makes sense.
The only thing that makes me a little skeptical about it is the number of bottom callers. A lot of folks have access to those same charts you are looking at and the market seems to stymie 95% of the people all of the time. So if a large group look at the charts and say "this is the bottom" maybe it will be a self-fulfilling prophesy for a very small until something else blows up, but it won't stick. The fundamentals haven't materially changed. I don't trust Paulson to do the right thing with the immense power he has been given. He is more interested in furthering the agenda of the pigmen banksters and increasing their wealth then stabilizing the actual economy or markets. This is what TARP was about, and that was his favored plan over an RFC-style intervention.
Furthermore, as credit and leverage decrease and go to money heaven, it is harder to find the money needed to engineer a huge rally. Once the washout selling actually happens, the VIX will plummet and the market will be as quiet as a church mouse for months and possibly years. A lot of folks will be out of stocks forever, having been badly burned and lied to and misled. Here's one guy's call on DOW 3,000 which sounds reasonable to me.
charles hugh smith-Complacency and Panic
i disagree that we have too many banks.
I think we have too few banks as a result of some being so huge.
What we need are more, smaller banks so that when one fails it's not such a giant problem for the economy as a whole.
700 B is not enough for everyone. Which banks will be the winners and losers out of this deal? The ones which think they are on thin ice have been trying to raise/preserve capitals by selling off assets left and right contributing to the sell-off the past week perhaps. More volatility next week.
AllenM
I highly doubt any Treasury plan will involve buying common stock. That would do nothing to help the banks' capitalization. Seems to me the banks have to sell new stock for it to make any difference. Either way it is dilutive to existing common shareholders.
If that is not what you meant about Treasury propping the markets on Monday, I misunderstood.
I went short the Dow (via DOG) just before close today. So far, Dow futures point to this being a good move. In my opinion we are in deflation and a general long term down trend in all markets. I find the $ strength mysterious, though.
Iceland is now for sale. On eBay
~~~~
Ebay delisted it ... too toxic ...
Firstly, anyone predicting an opening on Monday is a fool. Markets closed.
""Update: Paulson also said buying equity provided a bigger bang for the buck than buying troubled mortgage assets."
This is an assertion, a claim without a warrant. In what way does it do so?
I'm not arguing either way. I'm saying Hanky has made a conclusion without an argument.
Further, this has been tried in most financial system crises. It has never worked. Why? Because the existing pool of capital minus crapital is not large enough. Debt saturation ends papering over stupidity.
Nostrovia,
Paulson Will Be Gone Soon and let the Treasury Door hit your worthless ass on the way out assclown !
Banks closed on Monday, stock markets are open.
"Apropos transparency, why does the Vatican have secret WWII era files???
Let me know when you find out.
Every large institution I know of has secret files. One reason might be the preservation of confidentiality.
The only reason to buy impaired assets is to establish a market price for them and to force their holders to mark them to market. At that point the zombies are identified and buried. The walking wounded can be salvaged, and the banking sector recapitalized on a public utility model.
This approach could never have been sold to Congress or to the banks on the receiving end of it, but what's unfolding is a rather fascinating way of getting there.
In other words, the reverse auction was never going to bail out the existing regime of idiot. It was going to force them to face the music. It can still serve that purpose.
Actually, I've heard the plan for the weekend is for all the G7 leaders to pick out their island in the Caribbean.
However, the Fed will hold firm to support American taxpayers. In order to prop up the confidence of US investors, everyone in the US will get a "Henry Paulson blew my $700,000,000,000 and all I got is this lousy t-shirt" t-shirt.
Berlusconi didn't give any details about what kind of rules leaders were looking to change, except to say that leaders are ``talking about a new Bretton Woods.''
Berlusconi Says Leaders May Close World's Markets (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
"I find the $ strength mysterious, though."
USD is being hoarded by institutions world-wide to pay off USD deonominated debt. Remember that US was the biggest exporter of debt world-wide over the last 20 years.
I don't expect USD to plummet until the deleveraging is done.
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
Firstly, anyone predicting an opening on Monday is a fool. Markets closed.
are you certain?
NYSE, New York Stock Exchange > About Us > News & Events > NYSE Calendar
Where do treasuries go with all of this supply ?
This raises the question: Why buy assets at all? Oh well ...
Because the rise in share prices will more than "justify" the large bonuses that Paulson's buddies will give themselves.
This has nothing to do with saving banks or the economy - it's Paulson and his synagogue buddies squeezing the last pound of flesh out of America.
The G-7 would have to surrender some national interests for the sake of the general, global good.
Why are treasuries dropping if there is all this supply?
Pavel: 64 years ago? Confidentiality?
Ok, draw a black line through the single reference to the single guy who is still alive that it might affect personally.
So now we have to trust Paulson to invest my money in the banks too big to fail. I can spell out who gets cash - MS, GS, BofA, WFC, C, and a smattering of small to mid size banks. What happens next? Hoarding, and then the ongoing failure of American capitalism.
Pass, please.
``Trust me, we are not wasting time; people are working around the clock to deal with this.''
Oh I trust you Mr. Panky. Revised my out look for S&P 500 to 500.
Talk to me about the bottom next fall, when the recession is well and truly present for all to see and we've had a few months of 2004-era option ARM resets. Still many more peaks and valleys ahead on the big rollercoaster.
I need to see some homebuilder bankruptcies. Large ones...like Toll Bros., Centex, Hovnanian, or DR Horton. Which dumb banks are keeping these guys alive? Centex suspended its dividend today. Lennar cut its dividend 75% the other day. Some of these companies will fail, sometime.
"Main Street Bank had total assets of $98 million in total assets...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to its Deposit Insurance Fund will be between $33 million and $39 million."
Sweet! Loss > 40% !
t
Todo today ruminated that govmt may void contracts on cds , victims would be hedge funds. acceptable collateral damage to save financial institutions, but more forced selling. makes sense to do this at the top of a manipulated short squeeze rally.
This is great... the vatican is messing with us. There is actually a Vatican Secret Archives page on the Official Vatican website. But when you click on the Secret Archive link it takes you back to a home page.
It's like Umberto Ecco is webmaster.
Vatican Secret Archives - Index
The next question: How do they decide who gets the cash injection and who gets kicked to the curb?
The MEW graph from the other day tells the story.
Consumer based economy. That 9% was spent on consumer goods. That 9% is gone. For good.
Technicality?
Isn't the initial bailout amount $350 billion?
I know Congress can rubberstamp the other $350 in a day, but just curious.
California Rating Threatened by Cash Crunch, S&P Says
California Rating Threatened by Cash Crunch, S&P Says (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Who is next? New York, United States?
After being blamed for rating subprime as AAA, I think the rating agencies are being "pro" active, or at least trying to stay current with the markets opinion/rating.
Our best days are behind us......
Speaking of the Vatican, where do they invest? I ran across a little company based in Scotland that claimed to manage their investments, but it looked a little hokey. Who's their broker? Do they have quants and pr guys employed directly in little rooms under the Pope's chambers?
So Hank's buddies have boatloads of shares they need to unload.
But there are too many sellers and not enough buyers.
So Hank forces the taxpayers to buy them.
Sells it as "you're getting equity."
When in reality we are being made to hold a flaming bag of dog poo.
Sounds like a great plan!
Lay down, Mr. and Mrs. Taxpayer. The bankers will be by soon to administer your bukkake. Call it a liquidity injection and be thankful you get something in the deal. It's your patriotic duty to be a spew receptacle.
Glad we arrived where we need to be. Hated the detour through Outer Mongolia.
"Pavel: 64 years ago? Confidentiality?
Ok, draw a black line through the single reference to the single guy who is still alive that it might affect personally."
Since we're talking about supposed
'secrets', obviously I can't respond to your question.
Uncle Billy, the Vatican is very old and in some ways is not at all like other institutions. It has a very different culture, motives. OTOH, the Church on Earth is made up of human beings, not spirits.
In some respects, priests are just guys, like everyone else. It is in the sacramental office of their order that they differ from you and me, but they don't spend 24 hours a day offering the sacrifice of the Mass. I could say more, but this is not the proper venue.
As St. Augustine wrote, the Church is a hospital for sinners, not a mansion for saints, or words to that effect.
There were heroes and martyrs of the Church during that war, and there were those who were not.
I have no idea what is in those files.
Harry Cheddar writes:
The next question: How do they decide who gets the cash injection and who gets kicked to the curb?
Harry Cheddar | 10.10.08 - 8:09 pm | #
I'm thinkin five card stud. Hold 'em would take to long, and time is of the essence.
Look at what else Paulson said--'Such a program would be designed to encourage the raising of new private capital to complement public capital.'
What this means is that the program is being designed so there is a ratio of govt capital and guarantee sufficient to get the money on the sidelines in. So 700B is more than itself.
On the bad side Naked Capt. scared me today when they wrote that prime brokers have arbitrarily raise margin requirements HFs. This caused some of the selling this week, but it won't be over on Monday.
California with 55 electoral votes is too big to fail.
not a banker: I'm thinkin five card stud. Hold 'em would take to long, and time is of the essence.
Sad part is that it would be more fair than the method they will use.
Speaking of the Vatican, where do they invest?
Immobliari
Wonder if Paulson ordered a side of Freedom Fries to go with his entree of Crow.
BTW, most parishes operate on a shoe string, and the Vatican itself is not by any means cash rich. You'd be surprised at how little 'Rome' is worth.
None of the hierarchy is in it for the money, and parish priests in this country probably could make more as assistant managers at Macdonalds.
California Rating Threatened by Cash Crunch, S&P Says
Ahnold sez whut?
You Keynesians deserve what you get. What??? Read what your master has to say about money and interest (the homo is so fucking funny).
Merchant of Venice, Paulson is a Christian Scientist. And an Eagle Scout. Look at the bottom of his Wiki page. Take your anti-semitic crap elsewhere.
So what's the big deal about equity until you know the terms?
The game at PokerStars is more honest, way more honest, than the NYSE.
Surviving banks must have strong enough balance sheet, not insolvent, and must show some ability to raise private funds in order to receive govt. recapitalization money. With current allowed leverage ratio of 10 to 12X, a dollar raised/received in effect allows banks to loan out 10 to 12 times. More bang for the buck compared to strictly buying impaired assets. Of course bank CEO would prefer the original Paulson plan (no dilution, rid of dead weights,...) but even the solid banks don't have the luxury of time for the other TARP to be implemented.
Pavel: thank you for your comments.
Supposedly the Pope opened up the WWII related archives in 2006, but they still haven't been made available.
"You'd be surprised at how little 'Rome' is worth."
Hmmm. Well I wouldn't be surprised if they were investing the same way everyone else was, that's for darn sure.
What's with ^RUT? Does a 4.6% rise make sense?
Botton 8 red days in a row. Only 15 more red days left for RED OcTOBER
Just wait until he starts buying the Wilshire 5000.
"Hmmm. Well I wouldn't be surprised if they were investing the same way everyone else was, that's for darn sure."
Uncle Billy,
Could be, but we don't get a quarterly financial report from the Vatican. It has many responsibilities around the world. Support of churches, for example, in places where the Church is persecuted and even underground.
Not on topic here.
But when you click on the Secret Archive link it takes you back to a home page.
When I click on the link I see tons and tons of secret files. Too many to ever read in one life time. The Pope knows who is pure of heart and he has the software to screen out black hearted heathens.
Sorry Ben...
If you had purchased...
$1000 of shares in Delta Airlines a year ago -- you'd have $49 today.
$1000 of shares in AIG one year ago, you'd have $33 today.
$1,000 of shares in Lehman, one year ago, you'd have $0.00 today.
But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer on year ago, drank the beer, then turned in the aluminium cans for recycling refund, you would have received $214. Based on the above, the best current investment play is to drink heavily and recycle. This we call the 401-Keg plan.
A recent study found that the average American male walks about 900 miles a year. Another study found that Americans drink, on average 22 gallons of alcohol per year. Based on this, on average Americans get 41 miles to the gallon. Makes you proud to be American!
BlackRock strategist Doll: Bear market in 'terminal stages
"The Pope knows who is pure of heart..."
Maybe, but I think that would be Someone else. The Pope has his confessor like everyone else.
The Pope is a good guy, though. My wife and I have 'I love my German shepherd' coffee cups.
G7 just delivered nothing other than rhetorical pledge. Paulson's recap plan "as soon as we can" given the ineptness so far is not at all reassuring. Another bloody week to come. Perhaps continental Europe, Germany specifically, sees this as a chance to cripple the Anglo-Saxon financial axis.
Company that makes the popemobile is going to be doing a booming business.
People want transparency, well, this is going to give it to them. Banks that get 'capital injections' are insolvent or else why take them? Who wants Chris Dodd and Barney Frank as
'business partners'?
If Paulsen says government shares will not have 'voting rights' his word maybe his bond but it expires on January 20th next year. After that, who knows. Maybe Congress will mandate minority business loans or housing loans. Afterall an Obama Administration will have to pay off its voting blocs and the cheapest, easiest way to do that will be to use depositors money rather than a depleted federal treasury.
I note HSBC turned down money from the UK government.
What's the St. Joseph Statue equivalent for 401K?
REBear writes:
Berlusconi didn't give any details about what kind of rules leaders were looking to change, except to say that leaders are ``talking about a new Bretton Woods.''
Bloomberg.com
ne...id=aP5mpMUORBWM
REBear | 10.10.08 - 8:02 pm | #
I thought this quote was more interesting.
Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said political leaders are discussing the idea of closing the world's financial markets while they ``rewrite the rules of international finance.''
The idea of suspending the markets for the time it takes to rewrite the rules is being discussed,'' Berlusconi said today after a Cabinet meeting in Naples, Italy. A solution to the financial crisiscan't just be for one country, or even just for Europe, but global.''
A lot of commentators have described Iceland as a country run like a hedge fund. Well, it looks like all investors might get "gated". We are all Icelanders now?
Tired of that REM song?
Try Armageddon!
YouTube - Prism - Armageddon
Armageddon, carry me home!
Happy hour at Lucky's....
http://images.theglobeandmail.com/archives/RTGAM/images/20081010/wdepressiongallery1010/depression1done.jpg
This is silly and OT, but if the average American drinks 22 gallons of booze a year we're in big trouble. That works out to 7.7 ounces a day. For every one of us?
REBear,The Canadian Maple Leaf.
suecris: when have stimulants and depressants ever been off-topic here?
Pissed- calling me Seb's brother is ridiculous. I have only gone really long this week. Special circumstances indeed. Your prize is the Guvornator and your tax increase- share and enjoy.
If you wanted to irk me, you succeeded.
Now, as for the comment by Darth- it doesn't matter.
Paulson basically called the bottom in no uncertain terms.
He now runs the Hanky Panky hedge fund in collaboration with what is left of the big banks now essentially subsidiaries of the Fed.
The driveby of gold and silver today was helped by margin calls controlled by the big brokers/banks. Now, why did that happen?
Lehman liquidity provided the cover for killing off a sign of dollar flight.
This is a short term call to buy- and you have to understand the panic is now over by government fiat.
Listen to reality, there will be no list of stocks we are buying until it is too obvious to the market folks.
Just understand that the system will be preserved until stability returns and it can be restructured.
Main street needs to stop their panic- now it is too late.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Suecris, if you're old enough to remember Wilbur Mills, he of the House Ways and Means Committee as it was then called and wrote our tax laws, admitted, after he was caught in the Reflecting Pool at 2:00AM with an Argentine stripper, that he drank two quarts of bourbon per day! Thus the complexity of our tax code?
Paulson is a Christian Scientist
Sure, that's what he claims now but he did work at Goldman Sachs...
Just saying, s'all.
suecris:
"That works out to 7.7 ounces a day. For every one of us?"
Your point?
Here's the latest Stratfor:
INTELLIGENCE GUIDANCE: WEEK OF OCT. 12, 2008
Editor's Note: The following is an internal Stratfor document produced to provide high-level guidance to our analysts. This document is not a forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating events, as well as suggestions on areas for focus.
The financial minds behind most of the world's more economically important countries are meeting in Washington this weekend as an official part of the G-7 finance ministers' meeting. The G-7 -- made up of the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom -- are meeting to discuss the global financial crisis. Later in the weekend they will be joined the rest of the G-20 countries, representing the world's 20 largest economies. The International Monetary Fund and World Bank also have delegations present, as they will be integral in implementing whatever decisions are made by the G-7 and G-20.
These talks are shaping up to be as critical as those seen in Bretton Woods, the site of the 1943 financial summit that laid the groundwork for the post-World War II global economic structure. The global financial crisis has evolved from being about single countries and "just" economics into something much grander. The global financial crisis is now a political one where these states will define how economic life will operate, and lay the groundwork for what is to come.
With the way the meetings over the next three days are set up, it looks as if the G-7 is coming toward a plan of action today, Oct. 10. It is then up to the G-7 members to get the rest of the world on board -- not a small task since most countries are looking out for themselves at the moment.
We see the meetings progressing as follow:
First, the G-7 is meeting as this piece is being written, digesting all that has happened in the past few days and coming up with a rough game plan to operate from. Global credit markets have seized up, and any plan with a hope of success must focus on injecting -- perhaps even forcing -- liquidity into the system.
Second, the G-7 will direct the International Monetary Fund and World Bank -- which operationally, if not technically, report to the G-7 -- to communicate this plan to the rest of the G-20 in a swarm of bilateral meetings to be held late Oct. 10 after the G-7 summit concludes, with more of the same scheduled for Oct. 11. The intent of this batch of meetings is to bring the entire G-20 on board with the rough game plan, and hammer out the worst of the inevitable disagreements.
Then, at 6 p.m. Eastern time Oct. 11, all of the G-20 will meet to hammer out the final details of how to address the credit crisis.
There will, however, be one exception to such a "smooth" process. Immediately after today's G-7 summit the G-7 representatives will be meeting with Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin for dinner. Russia is one of the few countries -- the others being Saudi Arabia and China -- that sits on a massive amount of cash, but unlike the other two, Moscow has been looking for ways to secure its own political needs and spite the West. This is most likely why Russia is getting its own special session with the G-7 followed up by bilateral meetings with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke and the delegations from the United Kingdom, Italy and India the morning of Oct. 11. Put simply, Russia represents a wild card that needs to be dealt with independently.
It is not clear how exactly the G-7 will attack the problem, but they have most of those who possess the capability of influencing the global crisis in one city at the moment. This weekend -- and especially that 6 p.m. meeting of the G-20 tomorrow -- will be a defining moment for the entire world.
History is being made -- don't take your eyes off it.
Isn't gold anathema to the 'plan' now.
I mean every Maple Leaf or US Eagle that is now bought is $1000 lost to the banking system so of course the US mint is going to limit the sale of new coins. Yet its not as if the USG is short of gold bullion to pound out new coins unless its been pledged or sold. Am I wrong?
All you bottom callers consider this:
Who is going to buy up all these assets and with what money?
It's not just the use and Europe selling off stocks like when the dot-com crashed. This is a worldwide asset liquidation. Everything from stocks, commodities, real estate, emerging markets, etc. Everything that is leveraged to own. When the dust settles and you have cash to put to work....which are you going to buy first?
What if there is more "good investments" out there than there is solvent buyers to buy it all up.
Consider a small community that bought up a bunch of ferrari's. As they liquidate you can buy a Ferrari for half price....but more come up for sale....so you buy two more for the price of one.....and still more come available....pretty soon, as the dust settles you are almost out of cash...you have 4 ferrari's and there are dozens and dozens left for sale and yet everyone in the community who is solvent already has one or two....who is gonna buy the others. Sure they have some intrinsic value...but right now they are worth $0.
Perhaps the leverage lasted so long that stocks around the world, real estate, commodities, everything inflated way to high. Once the deleveraging starts perhaps those who are actually solvent are so few that they can't accumulate all that's out there and won't have anyone to immediately sell them back to. The future buyers will have to work and save along time to afford what the solvent have accumulated.
I think stocks could fall way way lower than we can even imagine.
The financial minds behind most of the world's more economically important countries are meeting in Washington this weekend
oh, no.
This is one of the scenes from "The Omen".
I think we need a new financial product called the "Believers 401K enrichment fund".
Lube up guys, Russia is going to make US squeal like a piggy.....
The "plan" all along was to tank the stocks so that they could get a somewhat "Cheap" price for them. I can see them using prices from the swoon of this morning for there marks. If they don't then the financial stocks will continue to fall until they are satisfied with the price paid for the preferred shares. Using that as the floor so that they can call yet ANOTHER bottom.
It will work for a short period of time....like into options expiry.
It really all depends at what point they make the mark. If they have already then you can expect them to rise as the fix will be in for the "smart money".
Doesn't change the fundamentals one bit however these assholes will do anything to preserve the illusion of confidence and bonus preservation.
That "rally" today towards the close may have been the tip-off that the marks have been made or it was just stupid floor trader's cheering and wanting more manipulation from the PM's looking down from above.
I'm looking forward to more opportunity's to reload puts. May have to wait a few day's or a week but it will present itself.
Ciao
MS
Niet!
I refuse to "invest" in ANY failed business model that pays the CEO $19,000,000.00 for 3 weeks worth of golf.
He's waiting for the $700B check to clear - bank still has a hold on the funds.
"This is a short term call to buy- and you have to understand the panic is now over by government fiat."
If they have that much power and that much wisdom, how did we get where we are now?
An obvious a question, no?
Free Market:
The concept that guesses from millions of dumb people work better than careful planning by five smart people.
MS- this will provide a big slug of stability.
One of the cruelest things will be the clipping of the public in the selling of puts- and eventually calls. Just wait as the socialized markets set in.
The world changed this week- everyone should examine their fundamental assumptions about what constitutes the markets. I did, and radically changed my outlook as a result.
Someday this war's gonna end...
TGIFDIC
Meridian Bank, Eldred, IL
AND
Main Street Bank, Northville, MI
"This is a short term call to buy- and you have to understand the panic is now over by government fiat."
If they have that much power and that much wisdom, how did we get where we are now?
These are not mutually exclusive if we have mistaken their intent.
"Public servant" isn't always what it sounds like. Sometimes it just means "malevolent overlord."
Immobiliari:
"The Church owns 100,000 properties in Italy, 2,000 of them used as hospitals, clinics or rest homes. In Rome alone the Church owns 65 rest homes, 250 schools, 580 institutes, convents and monasteries and 18 hospitals."
98,000 income producing properties? Now that's a successful reit.
They do enjoy some tax advantages:
http://www.zf.ro/zf-english/how-much-money-does-vatican-really-have-2891749/
According to this, the church used to spend about twice its revenues:
COVER STORY THE VATICAN'S FINANCES This venerable institution, its bureaucracy swollen and its image hurt by scandal, is strapped for cash. Pope John Paul II is pressing his cardinals to find a solution. - December 21, 1987
But how much exposure do they have to cds???
"The world changed this week- everyone should examine their fundamental assumptions about what constitutes the markets. I did, and radically changed my outlook as a result."
I sense that this is an unfalsifiable thesis by which everything that happens from now on can be explained. I have seen these before.
We Are Facing an 'Inflation Holocaust': Jim Rogers
"We are grateful to The Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subject to the bright lights of publicity during those years. But, the work is now much more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a World Government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."
- David Rockefeller to Trilateral Commission in 1991
I missed this gem earlier:
``Trust me, we are not wasting time; people are working around the clock to deal with this.''
This would be really funny if $3-4T hadn't gone up in smoke while he wasted 2 weeks trying to bailout his buddies.
People say there is alot of "Cash" on the sidelines waiting to buy.
I don't get that. There can't be more "Cash" on the sidelines now than before. Isn't all "Cash" on the sidelines?
The whole definition of a leveraged sell-off is that the cash is needed to pay off debt. As asset prices drop, then the debt whole requires more cash to fill it. The decreased values of the assets eat more and more debt.
Say you owe $20,000 on a car...you think you can sell the car for $19,000 and pay the rest with $1000 cash. So you try to sell it but others are in the same boat. The price of the car goes to $17,000. Now you need $3000 cash to pay the debt back. So you sell the motorcycle. You bought that on credit though and you owe $2000 and it was worth $6000. So you try to sell it at the wrong time and only get $4000. Now your still $1000 short and you've devalued every other motorcycle on the market. So you sell more assets....it goes on and on, sucking up more asset values and cash. You could go from owning $1000 and having $20,000 equity in $2,000,000 worth of property (say you have $1000 equity in 20 things totally $2 million in value.) Once they deleveraging starts you are left with nothing, you still probably can't pay off the $1000 bucks and you have lost all your assets and dumped them in the market devaluing everyone else with those assets. Pretty soon you are left with a world full of cool stuff to buy and very few solvent buyers....
oh, no.
This is one of the scenes from "The Omen".
Broward Horne | Homepage | 10.10.08 - 8:59 pm | #
the only q: which one of those scum sucking pigs is Damien?
@Average Joe, Citizen AllenM
Yes, equity is a figment of the sell-side imagination.
The concept of equity is built on a foundation of debt.
Over $30 Trillion in global real estate and stock equity has been obliterated in just 6 months.
Debt is next in line
The bankers and bondholders are in the crosshairs of the most powerful force know to man.
The compound interest formula in reverse.
Pavel, don't fight the Fed. They make the money.
This panic will now be strangled. Remember, they now have resources beyond any that has ever been brought to bear. They will overcorrect the current imbalances, and then they will attempt to quiet the markets by selectively breaking certain players who are actively betting against the system.
What most of the folks here fail to realize is that the markets are now no longer free. When you trade against the government, you have to take into account their goals, and how much they are willing to invest to break you.
Maybe I am five minutes early, but a lot of folks appear to need to learn some lessons very quickly.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"intellectual elite" = George Bush? RMAOL
Note to Paulsen, buy Krispy Creme and Dunkin Donuts. Put franchises in State government agencies. DMV, Unemployment Insurance, seized bank branches. People are going to need a cup of coffee and a donut while they wait in line due to state government cutbacks and bankfailures. Forget about Morgan Stanley. Donuts and cheap coffee are more lucrative.
the only q: which one of those scum sucking pigs is Damien?
Yankee | 10.10.08 - 9:19 pm | #
I guess the guy that brings everyone to agreement.
"supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite"
This would, obviously, not include George Bush.
Citizen Allen, let's say your theory is right. How do TPTB deal with treasuries & interest rates?
Ultimately, they have to convince some segment of the world to trade real goods & services for.... "that paper" which seems to be falling out of favor.
How do they handle that? How does the Federal gov't keep functioning with rising interest rates?
supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite"
If they were so elite, why didn't they see this problem ahead of time?
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
"We are grateful to The Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subject to the bright lights of publicity during those years. But, the work is now much more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a World Government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."
- David Rockefeller to Trilateral Commission in 1991
How's that going Dave?
Popperian dialog and tests don't cut it when the foundations of a system change.
This can be considered the Bernanke Put to prevent the GDII.
You want simple tests when more liquidity than most could even imagine is being put into the system at every available oriface. This is more like the fall of the wall, everything is now different.
Look to the obvious- take them at their word.
Gotta go to the gym- back in two hours.
Someday this war's gonna end...
CSC, it does include Bush, that is the hilarious stupidity. As is the notion that WP, NYT or Time and now add the sad demise of the WSJ the only domestic news source that was reliable until Murdoch murdered it. Now one must troll on-line for news..Bloomberg and FT are stil reliable. Very sad.
Keep assuming that those in control want stability and the status quo.
Apparently nobody read the quote.
Change is coming. And it wasn't unexpected or an accident.
"This panic will now be strangled."
Soon? Next week? Next month?
Isn't all "Cash" on the sidelines?
Fighting the bobblehead talking points can land you in Gitmo.
The simple answer is to let the system break, then rebuild it to the elite's benefit.
Chaos is profit.
RatFink,
Right on.
I think that we have created far to many nice "assets" and have been able to sell them to people who could leverage them. Instead of owning one car for $20,000 paid in full. The world instead owned a $1000 piece of 20 different things worth 20x the one car. Thus the illusion of wealth.
Now that deleveraging is occuring, we are left with way more assets than we need/can afford. And all that wealth is being destroyed wiping out those who are able to buy at lower prices.
Again, who is going to buy all this great stock? And once it's all bought by solvent people from others who need to pay off debt (and don't have the cash, otherwise why liquidate?) and the solvent have stock and the insolvent have the cash but use it to pay debt, who are the stock holders going to sell to?
So stock holders have to live off dividends and not expect to sell anytime soon at higher prices. If you have to depend upon dividends only to asses value...then how much is it worth.
If you can't resell a house and can only live of the rent..how much is it worth?
How much is stock worth when you know they can go to 0?
dd: I read the quote to infer that a new system, not based on national sov, was being implemented. I read that some folks would prefer a world goverened by elites and bankers.
But if some believe this includes POTUS, so be it. I see him as a vehicle, not a pilot.
The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."
I thought we were rid of this crap thinking. Apparently not. IMO.
Pavel Chichikov, appreciated your quote from St Augustine. Have a nice night!
AIG's toes writes:
The simple answer is to let the system break, then rebuild it to the elite's benefit.
AIG's toes | 10.10.08 - 9:27 pm | #
Or break it on purpose to implement a better system for those at the top.
Before the USG jumped in wasn't AIG the 'Biggest Insurer in the World'.
The "Full Faith and Credit of the US Government" only works if you are dealing with a public that isn't itself broke.
I think lots of Americans are broke.
Songs by the campfire as the box cars roll by:
Sheryl Crow Hallelujahhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWDfH51gvc0
But if some believe this includes POTUS, so be it. I see him as a vehicle, not a pilot.
Bush will return to his ranch to practice piloting his Segway.
AIG's toes writes:
The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries."
I thought we were rid of this crap thinking. Apparently not. IMO.
Today's press is full of calls by world leaders for a new global finance system. Many want a global currency. So, yeah, we're not yet over it.
I think we are all too cynical. Remember,
"people are smart"
-Ditech
"people are smart"
-Ditech
the company Ditech? grrrrrrrrrrrrr
JOKE about how stock market works.
Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each.
The villagers seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest, and started catching them. The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their efforts.
The merchant further announced that he would now buy at $20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.
Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer increased to $25 each and the supply of monkeys became so little, that it was a rare event to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!
The businessman now announced he would buy monkeys at $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on his behalf.
In the absence of the monkey dealer , the assistant told the villagers. Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that my boss has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when he returns from the city, you can sell them back to him for $50 each. Thats a 44.1 percent markup!
The greedy villagers instantly agreed. They rounded up all of their savings and bought every single monkey inside the big cage.
Then they never saw the monkey dealer nor his assistant again, only monkeys jumping everywhere!
Now you have a better understanding of how the stock market works. Caveat Emptor!
This doesn't make any sense. The problem right now is that too much wealth is concentrated in too few hands.
Sure, they cany try to make that even narrower but... it's not working now. What's the point of manipulating for stock and bonds that are worthless because nobody can buy or make anything?
It's pointless.
"Misha Mishima writes:
Pavel Chichikov, appreciated your quote from St Augustine. Have a nice night!"
Bless you, Misha.
WOLVES OF THE FOREST
In that wood where we were used to wander,
Camouflaged beneath the autumn forest litter
Of rough grey bark and tawny leaves I saw
Two brutal forms entwined by hairy belly and by paw
Rising and emerging, shaking off the earths disguise
To see who had observed them through outlandish eyes;
They saw me and gazed down the wooded hill Id climbed -
It was for them an interruption of their mating time
The male chimerical stood up, assumed a human form,
Coolly studied me unfazed, feigned to mean no harm,
But the female of the couple, submerged in some dark lens
Of water showed her rounded face, inhuman as the moons,
And I an interloper from the past remained stock still
For just a moment, then retreated backwards down the hill -
One wolf to the other said: He will not recognize
The future when he sees it through our innocent disguise
\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPavel
\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSeptember 27, 2008
Yankee: hehehe...
Today's press is full of calls by world leaders for a new global finance system. Many want a global currency. So, yeah, we're not yet over it.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 10.10.08 - 9:30 pm | #
What's our recourse? We would have to devise a system of world representation for localities.
My mind tries to navigate the maze of possibilities, like what if the money market my brokerage account uses as a sweep for me fails? What if I withdraw my money from the brokerage to deposit into my bank account is lost when I put it into a number of insolvent bank accounts? Financially speaking, I fear we have no future. Yes, Paulson may be able to maintain all the necessary smoke and mirrors to actually guarantee my many bank accounts, but inflation destroys the buying power anyway...I FEEL so hopeless about negotiating this maize, I'd like to buy some physical, but it appears that tens of millions already have that same idea....hopeless.
Anyone notice the crash in the CAD over the past week ?
What's our recourse? We would have to devise a system of world representation for localities.
AIG's toes | 10.10.08 - 9:33 pm | #
Our recourse is to realize we have less power than we once believed. Some will not, however, and will continue with silly bumper stickers and wasted votes, deluding themselves that we have a government 'of the people.
buy equities soon?
what like right before the POTUS was in the garden?
"The problem right now is that too much wealth is concentrated in too few hands."
A frozen dystopia.
The magician rifled through the cards until he had selected two. He then extended these two cards to the volunteer from the audience.
"Pick a card, any card."
At the end of the trick, the Americans were amazed.
"How the heck did he do that?"
a frozen dystopia
A disturbing image but it can only work through the use of brute force.
I don't think it will work, it hasn't been particularly successful in the past.
El Cliffo writes:
Paulson may just ignite the Mother of All Sucker Rallies.
It may stabilize things for now, but I wouldn't want to own one of those bank's common shares unless their going to pay 2x current value. Wouldn't put it past Paulsen to do that, after all the crap he tried to get away with in the first place, but that's much harder to BS than overpaying for the "assets".
I think Allen is correct when he sees the world on a cusp. But then...
Capitulation writes:
Anyone notice the crash in the CAD over the past week ?
Yes. For those of us above the 49th parallel it is pretty big news.
If you guys could keep your financial house in order it would be a bonanza for our exporters and tourist traps; otherwise probably not so good...
CSC: Has that David Rockefeller quote been verified? I remember him saying people thought he was part of a cabal to globalize and integrate and that he was proud of it... but...
The problem is 62 Trillion of Credit Default Swaps. Scam phony insurance contracts with zero reserves. An obvious scam to anyone who understands the most basic principles of insurance. The counter parties (whatever the fug that is) are a scam. This was all a bullshit accounting ruse to book phony profits by IB's, Hedge Funds and IDIOTIC insurance companies like AIG.
Good Luck America.
"I FEEL so hopeless about negotiating this maize, I'd like to buy some physical, but it appears that tens of millions already have that same idea....hopeless."
Misha, that's exactly how they want you to feel. And if you do, they win. Now who are they???
I wonder what's in Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. 158 year old archives?
The subject of Vatican archives came up earlier in the thread but I think Lehman's archives would be much more interesting. Especially since the dust has yet to settle from their fall.
Lots of bottom calling and folks who claim to know the future on this thread, but do we really even know the past?
I think you give Paulson too much credit. He's (and they) are opportunists who had several years to think and plan but clearly they can't predict all events.
It's a gamble and history says it will fail.
the problem is that there is 62T of ANYTHING.
i want to see the negligent in this debacle disappear to gitmo.
Ordo Ab Chao
CSC, right on.
Anyone who thinks that GW, or any national leader in view of the public for that matter, has any real control over anything (to say nothing of whether they have anyone's best interests at heart) should reexamine their premise and and do it post-haste.
We will kill the ones who eat us and eat the ones we kill. Then we will march on a road of bones to victory.
Who are they?
"That... is the right question"
My mom asked it today.
Buffett but not Rodgers.
Bush but not Soros.
Might depend on what Rockefeller we are speaking of. As I recall one of the Rockefellers did more than express a desire to globalize and integrate, he actually went and did it in the jungles of New Guinea.
Provided a fine meal for the inhabitants through his initiative.
uncle billy
bilderberg is what he was/is in wiki has his "proud of it"
Uncle Billy Vs. Mt. Pelerin
Im @ the bottom of empty
Perhaps this is just mass paranoia. When we wake up tomorrow it will be just a bad dream.
Michael Rockefeller - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"A disturbing image but it can only work through the use of brute force.
I don't think it will work, it hasn't been particularly successful in the past."
It can work, of course. But will there be human beings as we know them now? This is just the beginning. The 'elite' must see the future as a choice between chaos and practical and effective social control.
Personally, I find the medieval and Renaissance popes and scholars, for all their obvious faults, to be a lot more inspiring as an elite. The best of them believed in much more than power and control.
OMG. I just realized why Obama is fake. I mean, his whole history is kooky. He's at Harvard Law Review but he does nothing. Hardly anyone remembers him, the whole birth certificate thing is just plain inexplicable, the interplay with the Clintons...
Is Obama backed by the other side?
Because I do believe there's more than on coalition.
Damn.
So.... getting to run Harvard Law Review is "nothing".
OK.
Obama=Manchurian candidate ?
Kona: Pep up! We got work to do bud. Cha-Ching Ratings Conglomerated, SpA needs to position itself as the MOARA (Mother of all ratings agencies) of the new era.
Anonymous writes:
We will kill the ones who eat us and eat the ones we kill. Then we will march on a road of bones to victory.
Anonymous | 10.10.08 - 9:44 pm |
dude, thats harshing my buzzz
"As I recall one of the Rockefellers did more than express a desire to globalize and integrate, he actually went and did it in the jungles of New Guinea."
Michael. The Asmat people of New Guinea probably killed him and preserved his head in one of their men's houses.
Uncle Billy: There is a video out there of him speaking the quote. I've watched it myself in the past. I'll see if I can find it.
Word around Reykavik tonight is that they are taking to small wooden boats and setting sail for London and Paris to 'recapitalize' their banks!
He sure is backed by the other side. And the other side has more voting Americans than your side!
Re: Kona: Pep up! We got work to do bud. Cha-Ching Ratings Conglomerated, SpA needs to position itself as the MOARA (Mother of all ratings agencies) of the new era.
Yah! This is a new era, and change is a challenge!
Broward: He worked at something called BIC after college if I remember, which was reputed to be a CIA front organization. Man your collanders!
Sorry... the "Mama" of all ratings agencies.
getting to run Harvard Law Review is "nothing"
Broward Horne writes:
Paulson is a Christian Scientist"
Paulson is a nature and animal lover, who cares about anything else.
I bet that he must be dreaming (for seconds here and there) about making that the priority of his next occupation
Broward,
I sincerely hope you are right and I, in my gloomy moodiness, am wrong.
Obama is a fake, but with McCain wanting to buy mortgages, well, what's the difference. I will vote, don't get me wrong, but...what's the difference? Either you want the slow ride to extinction...(the elitist country club republican type) or the slightly faster ride to extinction (the liberal democrat who thinks he can take care of what he thinks are your real personal needs). The country club republican is slightly more honest, but just being a little more honest is like being just a little pregnant
It has already failed. The plan was set out months ago and Paulson thought he could accomplish it in favorable markets. BSD that he is, like Cheney he thought chaos was a time to profit. But Hank is abandon; out there with his ass hanging out without a lifeline. Where is Cheney these days? Cheney is the administration and where is he? Why isn't he supporting Hank? Why isn't the whole administration on display the way they were for the Iraq WMDs? Where's Chertoff..what with Galveston being wiped away and now an national economic emergency? Where are they all? Why are they all hiding?
Because failure is in the air; much as it was on 911 when they all ran away and left Rudy to sort it out.
There are no grand plans because these idiots couldn't plan a trip to the bathroom. Yes there are grand delusion specters of world domination but it all stops when they gotta take a piss and can't find the facilities without a guide.
UB,
I'm in the midst of a wake, for my divorce and the times they are a chang'n
Chheers!
Russia sitting on alot of cash gets a private meet w/Paulson and Uncle Ben. Quid pro quo. President of Georgia better move.
this is the biggest reject violence and start over campaign the Muslims and Chinese are never gonna get to read....
Ping Pong Six pack and Hasham Half Baked dont get this in the home country.
sorry,
hasham is more Hindu than Muslim.
Tolkien said there would be many defeats before the final victory.
Doesn't matter who wins the election.
It'sa Dick Cheney world out there now and the 'shotgun sings the song'.
People genuinely thought there was no difference between Bush and Gore.
Experience runs a dear school, but fools will learn in no other.
"The problem right now is that too much wealth is concentrated in too few hands."
The many pay interest to the few. Not really surprising how it turns out.
Anonymous writes:
Russia sitting on alot of cash gets a private meet w/Paulson and Uncle Ben. Quid pro quo. President of Georgia better move.
NATO gets Iceland
The Russians get Georgia. and whatever Baltics continue to collapse that the Nordics cut loose.
Experience runs a dear school, but fools will learn in no other.
Optimist.
There are no grand plans because these idiots couldn't plan a trip to the bathroom. Yes there are grand delusion specters of world domination but it all stops when they gotta take a piss and can't find the facilities without a guide.
But there's always SOMEONE that sees an opportunity and takes it. IMO, Obama has generated a cult following, which is easily extensible to a world scale. For good or ill, it can grow beyond initial expectations.
Armed aggresion in the Caucuses is in the air
Nobody answered my question yet.
How are they going to control the impact of rising interest rates? The entire subprime fiasco was an atttempt to circumvent the long-term up cycle that started in 2003.
How do they maintain control with rising interest rates and $12 trillion in short-term debt?
I just don't see it.
It's an unpredictable scenario.
I've thought about it for about a decade and I'm still not sure how it can play out.
Kona writes:
UB,
"I'm in the midst of a wake, for my divorce and the times they are a chang'n"
Hang in there. At the time I thought my divorce was the worst thing that ever happened to me. It turned out to be the best thing. (When someone suggested that very thing to me at the time, I got very angry...) Whoocouldanode?
After you've stuffed your mattress, <a href="http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/>One you can't whistle to.
Instead of Democrats going back to classic New Deal economics where we prime the pump of the economy and start money circulating among the population through saving homes, creating jobs and building a new infrastructure, our leaders chose to accelerate the wealth of the nation upwards. They did so in a way that was destructive of free-market principles. They ripped away all the familiar moorings. We are in an uncharted sea where the traditional roles of the political parties are being switched. The Democrats have unfortunately become so enamored and beholden to Wall Street that we are not functioning to defend the economic interest of the broad base of the American people. It was up to the Republicans to protect not just a so-called free market but the American taxpayer and attempt to block this. This is an outrage. This was democracys Black Friday. ...
We had two take-it-or-leave-it propositions and the second one was worse than the first, Kucinich said, referring to the plan that came loaded with pages of tax cuts. Tax cuts are antithetical to a bailout. We never solved the problem. There were never any hearings on the bill. This premise, that we could prop up the stock market with a $700-billion investment and create some liquidity, was flawed. The problem is that banks do not want to loan to each other. It is not a liquidity problem. Banks are afraid they are going to collapse in short selling. There is a war going on between security firms and banks. Banks are under assault. They are not loaning. The dynamic is driven by the Accounting Standards Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Fed.
And one you can.
"Armed aggresion in the Caucuses is in the air..."
I thought that was three weeks ago?
"Nobody answered my question yet."
That's because we don't know the answer.
Uncle Billy,
"They" want you to borrow, buy and be happy.
"They" require more credit and debt to feed the compound interest formula.
The equity markets are simply a skimming operation.
Housing was the last supper.
Gold is in hiding and cannot be skimmed, but it can be 'coaxed' out of hiding with food when the masses are starving.
"They" control the food.
Kona: Hmmm... I'm trying to figure out if CR is good for you or not. I'm thinking.... not.
Well that's Obama's problem iddnit?
Its a lot easier to manufacture voters than it is to manufacture taxpayers.
You can't apply Keynes if you can't borrow and by the time Obama gets the keys to the White House, if he ever does, its going to be a run down neighborhood.
we don't know the answer
Bush & Pauslon... their behavior has been perplexing until now -
"When someone's actions make no sense, they either know something you don't... or you know something that they don't"
some guy,
Yah,
I'm thinking in terms of the Mandelbrot set: Mandelbrot set - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
It took a lot of effort to get where I am, and now I have to take steps towards a new structure...
If all we can do is exploit one another it's not just that the species turns out to be pathetic in its limitations. It becomes incapable of the kind of cooperation that ensures survival.
Is this all we are?
The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practiced in past centuries.
I wish it was The Omen.
Unfortunately, in the real world, the cast of supra-national intellectual elites are played by Jerry Lewis, Don Knotts, Sacha Baron Cohen, Mike Meyers, Howard Cosell, Gary Coleman and ALF.
There's an easy way to understand how the international system grapples with difficult crises requiring close cooperation from people who are normally in direct competition.
It doesn't.
The deleveraging continues.
Uncle Billy: I don't see the clip handy. It may have been in a larger clip I watched.
The belief that our leaders are retarded is widespread. I believe this is intentional. But I understand that many people think that the top of our I-banks is the domain of idiots, that the men who grasp power are stupid, etc. I don't buy it. I believe they lie about intentions as this benefits them. Looking stupid to the powerless proles is of no concern to them. They hate you.
I guess we'll find out now. If we all retreat to our nations and suffer our retards, I will have been wrong.
But if the top of the food chain gets their way, then some will be open to the possibility that we were mislead by their intent, not their abilities.
If the people believed that the top were intelligent and benevolent, we would expect mbetter results for us. As it is, we expect them to "screw up," and understand when it affects us negatively. Ah...just what President Columbo would want.
If they're such idiots, you all should have no problem outperforming and outsmarting them all the way to the top. Good luck!
"When someone's actions make no sense, they either know something you don't... or you know something that they don't"
) It's usually both.
They are stupid even though they are the smartest people ever because BSDs are not ruled by their brains. They make intricate master plans and they go to trade and the gorilla takes over. Brains go bye-bye.
Anyone notice the crash in the CAD over the past week ?
Capitulation | 10.10.08 - 9:34
Yep, some Aussies and me were talking about our currencies on another thread. No way we can afford American manufactured products now. Good thing China can pick up the slack.
Maybe that is life, the expression of effort, the conspiracy of compromise, the challenge of the future versus the reality of gravity:
Image gallery of a zoom sequence
The Mandelbrot set shows more intricate detail the closer one looks or magnifies the image, usually called "zooming in". The following example of an image sequence zooming to a selected c value gives an impression of the infinite richness of different geometrical structures, and explains some of their typical rules.
Pavel Chichikov writes:
"Armed aggresion in the Caucuses is in the air..."
I thought that was three weeks ago?
That was nothing. It was an appetizer an aperitif, foreplay if you will. A whetting of the beasts appetite, nothing more
So am I the only one who thinks the G7 is gonna make Japan fall on the sword this weekend? The ridiculous rise of the JPY is causing the unwind of the carry trade proceed at ridiculous proportions.
It wouldn't be the first time the G7 gave Japan the finger (Louvre Accord).
"When someone's actions make no sense, they either know something you don't... or you know something that they don't"
Or they use the appearance of imcompetence as a ploy to distract, minimize
Pavel: I was thinking that no, no this is not all we are. I mean we who are not just this. So how bout we divide the world into those who wish to exploit each other and those who wish to live on a higher plane? Divide the world in half. If the carnivores decide they want to come over to the light, then we let them sit in purgatory for a year, make sure they're really with the program, and then open the gates for them too. It would be painful watching them butcher each other and swindle each other, but this way the concept of "choice" is very obvious and significant and helpful.
Interesting, the state's will really have a budget shortfall after this week,
big capital losses, already underfunded pension plans being just nuked, higher umemployment, less consumer spending, less gasoline consumption and lower real estate taxes. Unlike the past, the health care and pension obligations are a much larger percentage of the budget.
So it's either more debt or entitlement cuts.
"There's an easy way to understand how the international system grapples with difficult crises requiring close cooperation from people who are normally in direct competition.
It doesn't."
And the irony is that that is one of the most optimistic-- and valid-- statements in this entire thread.
If they're such idiots, you all should have no problem outperforming and outsmarting them all the way to the top.
It's not a matter of intelligence, it's a matter of ethics. As Secretary of Treasury, Paulson's responsibility is to the people of the United States, not his Delta Phi Pho Phum or GS buddies.
It's easy to lie and cheat.
Not cheating is hard.
But it makes it a lot easier to pull the guillotine handle.
I quit my job today. I've been in moral quandry about it for weeks. So far I've gotten something like 15 phone calls trying to talk me out of it but it's not worth.
I'm going back to my parent's house to watch television.
Re: Kona: Hmmm... I'm trying to figure out if CR is good for you or not. I'm thinking.... not.
LOL, yah, maybe yes, maybe no, I'm thinking that Elvis was fairly over the top last night, so, maybe we all get turns at weird behavior now and then.
Many apologies, I'm bowing at a rapid oace as I remove myself from the room... domo, domo; maybe I need to eat?
"That was nothing. It was an appetizer an aperitif, foreplay if you will. A whetting of the beasts appetite, nothing more"
If there was one thing I learned 20 years ago it was that no one knows what is going on in the Kremlin, except people in it who have no intention of telling you. Why should they? Bloody foreigner.
However, I once got a peek, and I have never been so scared. Just knowing was terrifying.
I had an article about it in Nezavisimaya Gazeta, in November of '91.
quit my job today. I've been in moral quandry about it for weeks. So far I've gotten something like 15 phone calls trying to talk me out of it but it's not worth
What was your job?
It's not a matter of intelligence, it's a matter of ethics. As Secretary of Treasury, Paulson's responsibility is to the people of the United States, not his Delta Phi Pho Phum or GS buddies.
No. That is YOUR expectation of his responsibility. HIS beliefs may not be the same.
I agree about ethics. They are drilled into the lower classes to keep them in line when nobody is looking. Religion used to work, now ethics. If that fails, the iron fist comes out.
The top do not respect these rules.
AIG's toes writes:
IMO, Obama has generated a cult following, which is easily extensible to a world scale. For good or ill, it can grow beyond initial expectations.
As a follower, it is not the man but the mission - the end of eight years of Terror (the Bush Administration).
Pavel, you wrote that? It is beautiful. May I save it?
Kona-Cookie: I mean you need to keep your spirits up, and this is definitely not the place for emotional sustenance lately.
But it takes both intelligence AND a lack of ethics to be the top predator.
If the individual is not smart, his organization will be loaded with brains. And he will be their lead singer.
Sorry, but these dudes aren't on our side. They are selfish, power hungry bastards. Their only fear is being held accountable. It almost never happens (except by betrayal within the top).
However, I once got a peek, and I have never been so scared. Just knowing was terrifying.
As I said, a whetting of the beasts appetite
Many oppurtunities have been and will be created by this disorder. Nations will act in what is in the best interest of their nations.
" I just realized why Obama is fake. I mean, his whole history is kooky."
Good start...now add that he's an arab and a muslim, a terrorist, he's black, he speaks well, he's educated, he's backed by Volcker, and oh yes, he's black...he couldn't possibly be competent, intelligent or you betcha, a real American. Fine. You've learned Palin's stump speech. Nice to see McSame's PR people working overtime. Hope your check clears.
As a follower, it is not the man but the mission - the end of eight years of Terror (the Bush Administration).
soxx | 10.10.08 - 10:17 pm | #
But Bush leaves in any case. How are we sure McCain follows in his footsteps?
OT - I've been watching a CSPAN/Council of Foreign Relations presentation on the G7/Global Financial Crisis conference. I wonder if the French would allow us to trade Paulson for Christine LaGarde, their Minister of Finance. Holy Mackerel, a Finance Minister that understands the issues and can calmly and clearly explain them. Oil on the troubled waters.
Christine Lagarde - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ask yourself this question: Who do you think learned the most from the French Revolution, the masses or the elite?
We've all but forgotten that event.
I assure you they have not.
McCain is bought and paid for as is Obama. Ron Paul is probably as well, but we just havne't seen his backers yet, have we? We need a different system.
UB wrote:
McCain is bought and paid for as is Obama. Ron Paul is probably as well, but we just havne't seen his backers yet, have we? We need a different system.
BINGO! Revolution time.
"Pavel: I was thinking that no, no this is not all we are. I mean we who are not just this. So how bout we divide the world into those who wish to exploit each other and those who wish to live on a higher plane? Divide the world in half. If the carnivores decide they want to come over to the light, then we let them sit in purgatory for a year, make sure they're really with the program, and then open the gates for them too. It would be painful watching them butcher each other and swindle each other, but this way the concept of "choice" is very obvious and significant and helpful."
We would have to become them. Anyway, as a Catholic I remain extremely skeptical about my own 'goodness.' We all go into the world as soiled and broken as anyone else, and after all, how could we ever learn anything or help anyone if we didn't need help ourselves? Where believers differ from those who don't believe is that we know that the source of help doesn't begin in other human beings.
quit my job today. I've been in moral quandry about it for weeks. So far I've gotten something like 15 phone calls trying to talk me out of it but it's not worth
Sometimes you just have to learn from a bad experience and go on.
10:55 on Cspan a replay of Bush on the economy. You think the futures will tank?
Henry Paulson said the U.S. will buy equity ``as soon as we can'' in banks and other financial institutions "to restore market stability."
The time to restore market stability was from each day to the next, during the last 50 years, by not promoting ever-more highly leveraged, unsustainable, private and corporate credit borrowing.
But you consistently chose to not restore market stability, by selecting instead the path of unwarranted credit growth. Now you are about to discover the law of unintended consequences: wherever you go, there you are.
i elect we keep the system - just organize as citizens better to watchdog these politicians.
We really need more transparency in government, I used to have do a lot of legal research in grad school. The federal register went from being a pamphlet in the early 1800's to now being the equivalent of a several volume encyclopedia each year now and congress probably works less. We should have simple votes not complicated with payoffs and earmarks etc..
The process of governing has become severely corrupted.
We need a different system.
You'd have to override the first amendment to get it (money = speech, dotchaknow).
"Pavel, you wrote that? It is beautiful. May I save it?
Whereismyretirement | 10.10.08 - 10:17 pm | # "
Thank you. Sure. The only thing I ask is that if you pass it on you give proper credit, and don't change any of it.
AIG's toes: the old who's watching the watchers problem.
If all we can do is exploit one another it's not just that the species turns out to be pathetic in its limitations. It becomes incapable of the kind of cooperation that ensures survival.
Is this all we are?
Pavel Chichikov | 10.10.08 - 10:05 pm | #
Fundamentally, no, it is not who we are. However, it is what people have been taught and told time and time again over many many decades (and if you like, centuries) so this is what we have become.
Until more people start making the conscious decision to think past "conventional wisdom" as it is handed down to us by experts and media, and begin thinking more like adult individuals rather than herd children things will unfortunately continue as they are.
But here's to things looking up. I heard that change is in the mail with my new pony
Did any of you watch 'Bewitched' when you were younger?
When Dick Sargent replaced Dick York as Darren, did you expect the show to change dramatically?
Maybe Samantha would realize some equality instead of being stuffed in the bottle? Maybe Tabitha would go to a better school?
We also have to down the rhetoric about economic growth, does the country have to grow every year, was it worth allowing a shadow banking system to exist to make GDP look better, so what if it contracted 1-2% for a couple years. It's really only a political talking point, the george bush sr recession was a nothing event in the scheme of things, but we made it out to be a crisis.
The belief that our leaders are retarded is widespread. I believe this is intentional. But I understand that many people think that the top of our I-banks is the domain of idiots, that the men who grasp power are stupid, etc. I don't buy it. I believe they lie about intentions as this benefits them. Looking stupid to the powerless proles is of no concern to them. They hate you.
IMO, one of the most important things to grasp about the Babylon system is that it is the system that is exploitive, not the people controlling it. The rat race is a daisy chain rape. Everyone is exploited in Babylon, from the kings to the peasants. Have you noticed yet that one of the things Hank Paulson is stealing is his own life?
From a technical perspective, weak states routinely put unqualified individuals in leadership positions. They're weak for a reason. Limited power rotation and limited criticism do not breed good policy, quite the opposite. You don't need to be a genius to ruin a state, just greedy and lacking in foresight. Once the parasites have battened on, it's very hard to break free of maladministration.
I guess we'll find out now. If we all retreat to our nations and suffer our retards, I will have been wrong.
If you are looking for effectual international institutions at this time, you are going to be disappointed.
The modern international system is far too complex with far too many disparate interests to ever bring it under steerage. I would be fascinated to watch someone try.
"Fundamentally, no, it is not who we are."
Yes, you're right. But the struggle to be human is the greatest and longest war in history.
Human Head:
The same pony someone found us a few threads ago? Had to be CSC
My Leper Pony by `ursulav on deviantART
For the last year I have been playing against the fed, the big boys, hedgys etc as a short..The .75 rates cuts, taf, tslf etc etc..
How about the summer when bad news happened everyday but they somehow kept the market up..I was wading into waves that I haven't surfed before, I have learned from all of you..
Banning shorts was like taking out Reggie Bush on the 4th and 2 against Texas for national championship. He was their wildcard, if they could put him in motion they would have gotten the 4th down..Same thing here...
Taking the shorts out of the market helped this meltdown big time...no positive leverage
Those big runs were normal after last March and during summer. They needed the shorts to panic with big swings not little token push that couldn't deliver thier blow and hurt thier or your psyche and trading account, though you thought your moves were right after doing your due diligence.
Today's action is something we've seen in the last year and a half, I think they will push up in am to show the world thier here to help.
I think we do see that 6.5 dow..maybe after new year...no bottom calling here...I believe the fed, treasury may have started buying into shorts while we were talking over the ban period or before bailout passed...
my 2 cents..
Now, are they going to push down gold to 600?
I'm hoping that Paulson's plan is for the taxpayers to get preferred stock plus warrants to buy shares. This gives the taxpayers more protection and the banks have more freedom.
This makes a lot more sense than letting banks dump their worst mortgages on the taxpayers for a premium price.
GM to buy Chrysler, or is this old news?
"Everyone is exploited in Babylon, from the kings to the peasants. Have you noticed yet that one of the things Hank Paulson is stealing is his own life?"
Wow! I mean that sincerely.
so what if it contracted 1-2% for a couple years. It's really only a political talking point,
GDP growth is used for budget and deficit forecasting. Negative growth for a couple of years greatly speeds up that freight train of unfunded liabilities heading right for us
GM to buy Chrysler, or is this old news?
Insanity, unless Cerberus is just trying to goad Ghosn at Nissan-Renault into finally moving.
GM to buy Chrysler, or is this old news?
I thought it was Cerberus, the three headed beast was buying GM
Thank you. Sure. The only thing I ask is that if you pass it on you give proper credit, and don't change any of it.
Pavel Chichikov
Thank you. I just want it for myself;) I am errrr...kind of a wolf "nut".
Sometimes you just have to learn from a bad experience and go on
Dude, I'm fifty. I've plenty of experiences. The miracles of the free market have turned the IT market into one big game of politics and it's incomprehensible to me these days.
Or, actually, what's worse is that it's not incomprehensible. Like with Paulson, Bush and Obama. I can ferret out some of it to know there's a lot that's not right or manipulated, but I can't figure enough out to stay clear of it.
Is this a trend? We have a number of commenters who have "things" as nicknames:
Invisible Hand
Byzantine Ruins
AIG's toes
PeakVT
Ginsu the falling knife
I'm sure this is quite common. Interesting in any case.
Byz: I do not disagree with you. But I do think your portrayal of the system is a little limited. We are not merely a herd and a shepherd. Some, to steal from Orwell, are more 'equal' than others.
When bankers realized that they could bring Kings to their knees, and thus affect entire countries with a wad of loot, I believe they saw a path to greater power. Having learned from powers of the past, they were smart enough to not desire to be the man with the sceptre. Rather they could buy that man and have (a degree of) control that way. If the masses got angry and chopped off a head, the power could install another rep in his place and keep on trucking. I believe this element of the power structure is missing from your post.
If you and I found ourselves more powerful than Kings, would we now do everything we could to maintain, if not grow, that power? Would we not want our children and grandchildren to inherit our accomplishment? I think so. And I think that has been done wisely, below the spotlights of the governed.
This has been alluded to by many Presidents as well as other high power figures.
Do you think it is all smoky room conspiracy theory? I do not.
Is this a trend? We have a number of commenters who have "things" as nicknames:
Have you noticed yet that one of the things Hank Paulson is stealing is his own life?
Have you realized yet that he has almost nowhere to store his $500 million in booty that isn't subject to theft or devaluation?
That's what I don't understand about the thing. The whole point of the United States was that it was successful and safe. What's the point of turning it into Mexico? Ultimately it doesn't benefit people like Paulson. What, he's going to live on Bermuda for the rest of days?
it's not that far of a flight from Miami!
"Would we not want our children and grandchildren to inherit our accomplishment"
Angelo Mozilo's justification for walking away with half a billion dollars was that he had a big family with grandkids that would need college money, etc.
Before expiring from a very very rapid cancer, Ameriquest founder Roland Arnall left his position as Bush appointed ambassador to Netherlands so he could be close to his son.
If I had wanted to buy stocks, I would have bought them. I do not need Paulson hacking into my E-Trade to buy stock for me.
Paulson will leave in January and spend the rest of his days trodding through jungles and observing animals and his birds. At least went he dies the money will more than likely fund WWF or some other worthy cause.
I'm going back to my parent's house to watch television.
And you're 50 years old??? Make it s short visit for their sake. They have devoted many years raising you to be the man you are. Please don't spoil it for them in their old age........
For those who believe that our Poli Sci books reveal the extent of our government, I wonder what you make of this...
YouTube -
I make no claims about the subject of this speech by JFK. Instead I ask you what you think he was referring to. Did this speech get him killed? By Oswald?
Allen M
AllenM
from up thread and before
i see you have taken stands and taken risks
been a tough few days
you have more guts than i do and right or wrong in your calls...
i agree with you, that at some time investors have to step up or the entires system will dis-assemble
i salute you
That's what I don't understand about the thing. The whole point of the United States was that it was successful and safe. What's the point of turning it into Mexico? Ultimately it doesn't benefit people like Paulson. What, he's going to live on Bermuda for the rest of days?
***** Is what's going on now a way for the world to plunder the United States? We've talked about mysterious elites of 'themses', but maybe it's a more widespread cabal of pirates, working through the UN and international agencies and spreading third world doctrine in the universities that is against the first world power that would be the ideal bastion of a Teddy Roosevelt.
Sure, there would be elites behind it, but they would be the kind of elite that would simply like to bring down the US and then fade away into the jungle leaving the booty to the less philosophically inclined of their pirate brethren.
Average Joe,
The analysis you have proposed seems to me to assume that shares in functioning companies will never pay dividends. If there are dividends, then there will be an absolute floor on share prices at some multiple of the divident payout. And if share prices are unacceptably low at that multiple, shareholders can demand that a larger fraction of earnings be paid as dividends, so that the share price approaches a reasonable multiple of earnings.
I grant that earnings will be lean for a while, in view of the recession. But I think that share prices are not as vulnerable over the long term as you suggest.
Well this will all be one big moot point as soon as we get rid of our dependence on the physical world. Download your personality into a chip, and then you can very vividly run as many empires as you like or tend as many routabagas as you want, without stepping on anyone else's toes. You can invent 5th order derivatives and launch them at will. It will be far easier to be "human" when we finally get rid of these meat-suits.
AIG's toes is a reference to corporate foot-pampering
What can happen to common stock holders of GM in a merger with Chrysler?