The scale of the fundraising could lead to trading at the London stock market being suspended. This would be to give time for the market to digest the scale of the information and its impact.
why would you need to invest in a bank? aren't banks suppose to pay interest to their depositors? according the the dictonary "a bank is an estalishment for receiving, keeping, lending, or, sometimes, issuing money, and making easier the exchange of the exchange of fund by checks, notes, etc." oh, I see, it also says a bank is "the fund or pool held by the banker or dealer in some gambling games..."
--
The Anglo-American Empire -- the Rule of the Moneybags under the guise of democracy -- must march on. Bankers and financiers must be protected at all costs.
What happens to the cash that goes into these firms? Used to pay off debt right? And then when the situation is disclosed to be even worse?
Stealth bailout of the UK banking system. They should have just nationalized and wiped out the common and the lower tier bondholders. But of course, that would have triggered more CDS exposure...etc.
Just saw this on Eschaton and thought you might enjoy it...
Now, as he spends his last months in office trying to avert a global economic collapse, Mr. Bush has been telling people privately that its a good thing hes in charge.
He said that if it was going to happen at all, he was glad it was happening under his presidency, because he had a good group of people in D.C. working for him, Dru Van Steenberg, one of several small-business owners who met with Mr. Bush in San Antonio earlier this week. The president expressed the same sentiment, others said, during a similar private session in Chantilly, Va., the next day.
He said that whoever was going to take over in January was going to have a huge crisis on their hands the day they come into office, Ms. Van Steenberg added. He thought by this happening now, that perhaps everyone could see signs of improvement before the next president comes into office.
Separately, the future of Morgan Stanley, the American investment bank, is also in doubt today ... Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is reviewing the terms of a $9 billion (£5.3 billion) capital injection into the bank and may launch a takeover.
While I have no problem with a Japan bank taking over a US bank, I think it will cause political issues.
Mitsubishi control of a former titan of Wall Street actually kind of appeals to my sense of irony. Let some of the "Masters of the Universe" work under Mitsubishi for a while.
Better get to your ATMS' tonight and tommorrow m get out max for each day- If no resolution to G7 , G20 meetings this weekend markets will really crash . I suspect they will be closed Monady or all week . Bank holiday all week as well . Serious shit guys .
Abby Joseph Cohen appears on CBNC, says still bullish on the S&P
[Believes that most of what has happened over the past 2 months has affected the markets, but not the economy. Sees S&P 500 at 1550 by year end. Notes her firm has factored in lower corporate profits... Notes non-residential construction growing at 15%, exports growing at 10% rate. Econ growth is better balanced... Thinks capital goods co's look attractive, likes some tech and consumer goods co's]
Sadly Ms Cohen was relieved of her responsibilities in March. I imagine GS could no longer tolerate the lawsuits and ridicule.
Did anyone read the opinon page in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday? Someone wrote that the people with high school educations are going to be bailing out the people with college educations.
I reckon my biggest concern about socializing global banking, is that people like Buffett will be paid by taxpayers and synthetically support his position of wealthiest humans on Earth lists, like The Forbes lists which are stuffed with the richest people, the top 1000 crooks, the people that took the most -- who are now being supported by taxpayers around the globe!
How is it, that the people directly responsible for this mess, will be the first ones rewarded, in a theoretical belief that they will do more good for those that have the least?
Did any of you question whether you have already pushed this market move as far as it can go ?? .... or are you so "in love" with your take on things that you actually imagine that the social order is about to change ? Jeez, grow up.
Did any of you question whether you have already pushed this market move as far as it can go ?? .... or are you so "in love" with your take on things that you actually imagine that the social order is about to change ? Jeez, grow up.
That's pretty much the main street point of view. I'd like to hope it's right but several trillion dollars of bailouts at taxpayer expense thus far suggests that it's not.
In many ways, I agree. I don't see any type of Great Depression here, but I see social change and future value changes. The economy may do just fine without wall street and retarded people like Cohen. If wall street is forced to play fair, they will have less power and business on main street may just go on as if nothing happened.
ss,
I am a short term trader. I have bet on a substantial rebound, because that is my honest take on things. It's just my honest opinion, I'm not a philosopher.
LIBOR is in Backwardation and Significantly Divergent from Effective Fed Funds Jesse's Café Américain
LIBOR has ceased to function as a reliable benchmark suitable for commercial and residential loans in terms of US dollars.
It is in backwardation with an inverted yield curve, and has significantly diverged from the Effective Fed Funds rate.
This is most likely because of the Eurodollar 'short squeeze,' as shown by the record TED spread, and the inappropriately small sample size of LIBOR reporting banks.
The interesting thing is that the article implies that only four of the institutions that were offered the extra capital have taken it up. Who's said no thanks. Might want to shift your savings there.
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.
announced today that it has made publicly available a letter sent yesterday to
state and federal regulatory authorities. The letter introduces a new Open
Source Research project initiated by Pershing Square. The Open Source
Research project includes the release of version 1.0 of an Open Source Model,
a dynamic financial model that contains extensive detail on the CDO and
related exposures of the insurance operating subsidiaries of both MBIA Inc.
and Ambac Financial Group Inc. .....
Grow up? Where is the maturity level we are supposed to meet? Where is the responsibility level we are meant to emulate? Can you point out where the leadership is I'm supposed to learn from is being displayed? What system is teaching this adult behavior?
You are a player in a system that is unrecognizable from a few short months ago. I understand your commitment to the status quo but my reality is showing a system in transition with no clear future. Continue putting your money and faith into a system that is corrupt and imploding or grow up and make decisions related to ensuring day to day survival for my family. I get my drama but I also get the risk to our currency and financial systems.
Buy long or buy food? Hmmmm, food is looking good right now. 2000 years of fiat currency has many examples of failure.
Although the plan is still being formulated, it seems likely that it will be put in place in the very near future, perhaps as early as this weekend. The basic outline of the rescue will follow the program announced by Hank Paulson tonight. Paulson said the government would take equity stakes in banks, a part of a "standardized program" that could be applied to "a broad array of financial institutions." The program would be designed to encourage investors to put private capital into financial institutions.
Went to the mall for a few errands. People didn't seem to be buying less then previously; but this is not a buying time of year.
Went to a Japanese restaurant where they fry the stuff in front of you--much more expensive than the last time we went. But lots of coffee sales at Barney's. In short, a mixed bag, inflation-wise.
Sign on corner: investment house $54,000, appraised at $105,000. Capitulation?
To a poster on the previous thread. Cape Coral is the inner circle of doom. Elsewhere, I'm looking at a half--off house sale. People can afford that.
Realtor yesterday told me she's surviving on REOs and such. And the angry foreclosees are simply trashing the places before they leave. Not just taking appliances, fixtures and cabinets. Taking toilets, and punching holes in walls and roofs.
Destruction of perfectly good houses is one consequence of kicking people out. There are unintended consequences to not bailing homeowners out too.
The person that needs to grow up is you popeye. I've heard your position, taken it into consideration, and dismissed it as you talking your book.
Don't get me wrong, I value the position of the recent bulls. But you're going over the top. If you're on here to cheerlead, you're probably in the wrong place.
Furthermore, the only reasons for a strong market rally are technical. The fundamentals stink.
[If wall street is forced to play fair, they will have less power and business on main street may just go on as if nothing happened.
Kona]
If that happens it will be nothing short of a miracle. The velocity of the economy is now grinding lower by the day. My gauge is a car dealer buddy. His business is off 60% over last year. Many of his employees got kicked to the curb and the rest are going broke.
Our consumption is cratering and the consumption based economy will shed jobs like none of us have witnessed. By the middle of next year the USA and much of the world will be a very different place. Not because there are less WS Bankers but because our entire economy was in a massive unsustainable bubble and our governments are up against the wall financially...
ss,
I am a short term trader. I have bet on a substantial rebound, because that is my honest take on things. It's just my honest opinion, I'm not a philosopher.
Popeye,
From a short term perspective I could agree with you -- for the next week -- for the following reasons.
Expiry
Expiry
Short covering on a spike
I don't see many other catalysts. Oversold is a relative term which doesn't really apply to situations like this.
On the other side, we could have failures to settle on LEH, BK announcements coupled to the settlement, MS failing to fund next week, credit markets remaining frozen, and lots of other news we just don't know about yet.
If I were a betting man, I'd try to be late to the long table as opposed to an early entrant.
I love watching the geese fly these days and the organization they form is always interesting -- I'm thinking lemmings here also, but check this out:
when you see geese flying south for the winter
in their characteristic V-formation, consider what science has
discovered about this arrangement:
As each bird moves its wings,
it creates a slight uplift for the bird following immediately behind.
In fact, because of this V-formation, the flock as a whole
enjoys a flying range of at least seventy one percent
greater than would be possible
if each bird flew alone. 404 Not Found
careful with the cash ladies. In this town north of NYC thieves are targeting older residents because they know the memory of the Great P. has spurred them to take out their money.
In other news, anecdotaly heard about a banker at DB getting smashed nightly. Self medication? Merkel will save him.
Whether you are buying heroin from Afghanistan, or crude oil from Brazil, or hiring a laborer who's sending money home to Ciudad Juarez, or you're borrowing money from China, the net effect is the same. You're removing wealth from local economy.
Doesn't matter if it's tangible or intangible goods or services. Consumption in excess of production is not sustainable.
Any so-called solution that doesn't address the consumption-production imbalance will only make the problem worse. Governments' "investing" in banks is just more consumption.
Cars are well built. They last longer. People will rebuild their balance sheets and save some, and then will go back and resume life. People who sold stuff which has a long shelf life will hurt, since style and keeping up with the Joneses will be less important for a while.
What is needed, I repeat is a blood sweat and tears speech,with some fireside chat thown in together with some buying of unwanted sovent debtor's commercial paper, and cramdowns with some subsidizing of the govt.
this is why W's every word makes it
worse. Everybody knows he is lying/retarded by now. If someone came out and said it was awful, but we can get thru it, maybe that person would be believed. But not until after the election because we are. . . dopes.
Are we officially in a recession yet? I would hate for the End of The Financial World to happen whilst we aren't even in a recession . .
Re: " My gauge is a car dealer buddy. His business is off 60% over last year."
I'm sorry for your friend, but the sustainability of SUV-like vehicles that are maybe $20K and up out of the range of more and more people. The only solution is to offer people longer loans at higher rates, which connect a depreciating asset to the future obligations of cash burn for maintenance and petrol costs -- so that type of business will consolidate and fewer units will be sold IMHO.
No doubt Cape Coral was among the most frothy in the South Florida Market. What I commented on in the prior thread was that those homes showing a greater than 80% discount were reflective of the "true" baseline.
However, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County are a close second.
Here is the Case Shiller Data for Miami from 1999 to the last reporting Month in July.
In short what the data shows is that the Miami market has fallen 32.84% from it peak in July 2006 and will need to fall another 49.36% to reach a normal trend line for growth based on housing sales data accumulated from 1890-2000.
Half off is nowhere near the bottom.
By the way, I developed over 2000 units with Related in Miami from 1999-2005 and before that I was with Lennar.
(CR would only let me post a portion of the data given space restrictions)
280.87\t6.06%
279.42\t-0.52%
279.43\t0.00%
276.89\t-0.91%
273.53\t-1.21%
269.52\t-1.47%
264.89\t-1.72%
260.39\t-1.70%
255.29\t-1.96%
249.61\t-2.22%
244.35\t-2.11%
237.99\t-2.60%
231.71\t-17.50%
225.40\t-2.72%
218.74\t-2.95%
208.88\t-4.51%
200.42\t-4.05%
193.19\t-3.61%
189.87\t-1.72%
186.84\t-1.60%
\t
-1.60%\t
\t
-32.84%\t
No kidding. My house was trashed in April. Took my jewelry and the spouse's coin collection, as well as whatever cash we had lying around. Didn't touch the tv or the computer.
We put bars up on the windows and doors. Don't know if it would help in the Mad Max scenario some of you envision, but for now it seems to be holding ok.
Out of toilet paper? Use the soft fuzzy leaves of the mullein plant also known as "lumberjacks toilet paper. Test carefully at first, as any plant can be irritating to some individuals.
It is in backwardation with an inverted yield curve, and has significantly diverged from the Effective Fed Funds rate.
The LIBOR "backwardation" (inverted yield curve) isn't as significant as the article makes out. 3 month rates are higher than 6 and 12-month; but that probably just rationally reflects an anticipated end-of-year cash crunch, not a profound problem with LIBOR.
And Paulson/Bush? Oh, they're still dicking around . . . a few more days until they finally announce a plan, then weeks before anything happens.
INCOMPETENCE=BUSH
joe shmoe | 10.11.08 - 4:45 pm | #
It's like Katrina, but on a grand scale - heckuva job Hankie.
On the positive side, the handling of all this dispels many NWO conspiracy theories - these guys are just too stupid and corrupt to execute global domination.
Deana, I was at a local Chase here north of NYC today and watched a 60plus male take out a ton of cash. You could read it on his face what he was doing. He got the wad then he counted it, for quite some time. That's sooo smooth.
Now come on, Bush and all his Coup may be crooks, but in terms of stock market losses, employment and future cash flow are somewhat in place in terms of localized exchanges, but of course the application of credit liquidity and then the matter of re-building long term confidence are matters that remain unknown factors which may be destabilizing. Nonetheless, wal-mart and costco seem to have used enough derivatives to help them expand into every possible American community, so perhaps the tsunami of easy credit they obtained a few years ago will be there for this wonderful life XMAS season?
Don't expect much in the way of specific solutions from Obama before the elections. He'd just get attacked for them; his goal now is to win. He may display his ability to give a soothing speech, which is actually something a lot of people are looking for at this point. But no solutions until he wins (assuming he does).
can anyone explain what the meaning of LIBOR will be when the banks surveyed for it are nationalized? Why should the planet's credit be keyed off a non market index?
or are you so "in love" with your take on things that you actually imagine that the social order is about to change ? Jeez, grow up.
The social order is going to change profoundly just from the dynamics of the crisis as they have played out so far.
Where's the lending gonna come from? No off-the-hook lending, profound changes in the social order. Period.
Between gvt security issues crowding out private capital and the drop in gearing explicit in the events of the last few weeks, the Great Deleveraging is going to change our markets profoundly. Even if the dollar is a major part of the transactional mechanism going forward, it's not going to be the same instrument it was.
even if ya don't like the guy (i am lukewarm), you cant deny his communication skills.
after 8 years of "the idiot", someone that projects calm, intelligence and leadership will have a huge affect in the crisis in confidence (of main street anyway).
Do you really want to be a shareholder in any of these companies. They apparently weren't thinking about shareholders when the levered up 30:1, they took all the profits and bankrupted the bank/shareholders, why should a government infusion be any different.
1) Tech Bubble- fooled once
2) Real Estate Bubble- fooled twice
3) Credit Crisis/Capital Infusion - third times a charm.
BTW-Just because a British accent sounds sophisticated doesn't mean that they are sophiscated.
Frankly- I rather overpay for the assets because I least you have something tangible like real estate.
I have to wonder about Obama purchasing time on Network TV to get the word out. Nobody watches the networks anymore, sounds like a good waste of money. So, now we know how he handles his campaign money...I believe he will be president too.
Might suggest Obama put some money up to advertise on the radio, on programs like Rush Limbaugh's. Lots of folk listen to that show, then he'd really get his speal out. I hope he wasn't boycotting Fox News like some Democratic candidates were making noise about, as the Fox Channel reaches alot of folk too.
Think of the TED spread as an indicator of financial fever--with something like 0.3% per year being normal. Think of the short end of the yield curve as an indicator of how powerful the Federal Reserve's standard medicine of swapping Treasury securities for bank reserves is.
I also wonder if, in hindsight, Paulson, et al., regret making an "example" of LEH.
oldtrader | 10.11.08 - 5:32 pm | #
Not to pick on you oldtrader, but I have seen this question too many times not to challenge it. Did Treasury have any statutory authority to offer a multi Billion dollar loan to Lehman? I think not pre-TARP. It is exactly that authority that Secretary Paulson asked Congress for in the original TARP proposal.
Exactly who could have bailed out Lehman without an act of Congress? They were not a depository institution and therefore not under the direct authority of the Fed, and one can make a reasonable case for the Fed not wanting to throw that kind of money at an investment bank they had no control over.
Might suggest Obama put some money up to advertise on the radio, on programs like Rush Limbaugh's. Lots of folk listen to that show, then he'd really get his speal out. I hope he wasn't boycotting Fox News
He wants to reach people, independants who will actually vote for him
Obama- Liberal acting like a moderate
Bill CLinton-a moderate the liberals thought was liberal
George Bush - a Liberal acting like a conservative
John McCain - a moderate acting like a moderate
Sarah Palin - a conservative acting like a conservative
Re: Do you really want to be a shareholder in any of these companies.
I think that will be a massive reaction to The New World Order and there will be a generational shift away from owning corporations. We just got through people being burned in The Dotcom Enron era and here we are again, melting on a global basis, and there is no way the average citizen will trust wall street anytime soon. e are going to see an interesting social change which will probably be somewhat like post Dotcom Bubble, where people will attempt to run more cottage industry ideas and invest in themselves, e.g, like CR and Tanta. The main problem is scale and competition, i.e, going from thinking global to being localized!
I don't feel you're picking on me.
It was an honest thought, and you gave an honest reply. Still, given the Fed has "been going boldly where no Fed has gone before", IF they could've pulled something out of the cocked hat, would it have saved some grief, or merely kicked the can a bit further down the road?
Fair Economist writes:
Don't expect much in the way of specific solutions from Obama before the elections. He'd just get attacked for them; his goal now is to win. He may display his ability to give a soothing speech, which is actually something a lot of people are looking for at this point. But no solutions until he wins (assuming he does).
It's all about timing. If he times it so that the only shot they get is Sunday morning, okay. Then Monday then election day.
Lots of flailing and arm waving from Walnuts, but to what good effect?
No, 30 minutes is an eternity for electronic messages. He might even name some cabinet members and specific 100 day program. I have no inside knowledge, but if I had his money, and ability to deliver a message, I'd make full use of the opportunity.
issues of ideology or policy preference aside, all serious sources concur that Obama is also extremely smart, has strong social skills and the ability to read people, listens to dissent, runs an organizationally superb campaign, and seeks out first rate advisors.
David Brooks (very conserv repub) just said this (sorry don't have the link . . . I think it was posted on The Atlantic.com), but there are many more such confirmations from people who, like Brooks, are quite conservative. George Will had a column last week along these lines.
merciless writes:
We put bars up on the windows and doors. Don't know if it would help in the Mad Max scenario some of you envision, but for now it seems to be holding ok.
I've never been much of a "gun person" although I've always supported the rights of Americans to keep and bear arms. This year I am buying the two women in my life [wife and mistress] each their own firearms and sending them to safety/training classes. The ability to defend oneself is never a bad thing.
oldtrader - just a bit further down the road. People, including our elected leadership, don't seem to understand that the problem is total debt in the economy. It was unsustainable. Now it's no longer being sustained. Read the Michael Hudson interviews on iTulip about the FIRE economy. We're the toast.
Deana writes:
CR posted a video earlier: Charlie Rose with Volker.
Did anyone hear him say that he was headed to China?
I sure did. Good things are happening, but it won't mean much for awhile. Again, this is going to take a lot longer and be a lot costlier than the most gloomy forecast has predicted.
Anonymous, I think advertising on network TV is a pure waste of money for any candidate, especially taking a half hour to do so, as it seems that those still watching the mindless garbage on prime time are going to vote democratic anyway. Just a thought. And, if Obama actually tried to engage conservatives, what could he actually lose? I believe he has everything to gain here. But, it just seems logical to me, I won't be voting for him anyway, his positions are really very far left...like Warren Buffett's, who believes rich people should be paying more taxes but still insists on filing a Schedule A with his tax return.
"Finally, an optimistic note. I was reminded yesterday that the vast bulk of wealth created during the Greenspan/Bernanke bubble years accrued to the very top percentiles of population with many in the OECD middle class and lower class either stagnating or getting poorer as they mired themselves in unsustainable debt. While opportunity and employment grew strongly in emerging countries, there too the elites gained disproportionately as income inequalities surged. The crash of global financial markets therefore will have disproportionate effect on the elites, impoverishing them to a far greater extent, although it will be felt throughout society as employment, pensions, investments and public services contract"
I agreed, equity is a sham.. Until there are true shareholder protections your not really a owner.
Bring on the cottage industry, I left a publcily traded company last year and started my own company. You know the funny thing is the management will bend over backwards to please the analysts but could give two shits about the shareholders.
Byz,
It's not my place to question the knowledge, wisdom, or access of "inside information" of others. I state my case. I place my bets, I takes my chances... I don't lie. That's the best I can offer.
Corey, you might want to sit back and think about that for a minute. If the wife and the mistress find out about each other, then they'll just shoot you.
What the fuck do the serious experts you quote actually know. We wouldn't be in the mess if we actually had experts, so don't tell me about Obama's organizational skills. If you want to give him a blowjob just ask him.
I hear that a lot, as if it's something that is unfounded and easy to solve with the soothing words of a hustler wannabe-Presidente.
Look, the problem isn't a lack of confidence. It's the opposite. It's the reaction to the realization that commitments/contracts/obligations are meaningless to a great number of Americans. That means credit standards and costs need to skyrocket from here because there is GROWING CONFIDENCE in the lack of will to honor commitments.
I don't feel you're picking on me.
It was an honest thought, and you gave an honest reply. Still, given the Fed has "been going boldly where no Fed has gone before", IF they could've pulled something out of the cocked hat, would it have saved some grief, or merely kicked the can a bit further down the road?
oldtrader | 10.11.08 - 5:56 pm | #
Kicked the can I think. Roubini has his flaws but he is right that the big investment banks are done. Even under the Fed's embrace we are discussing MS's sale or recapitalization here on this thread. I think that would have happened even if Lehman could have been saved.
Think about this, if MS and GS have problems that are only one tenth the size of Lehman's they are still in big time negative territory. If they are nearly as bad as Lehman, we do have a crisis.
Obama (my choice) will not be a FDR. His mental inclinations may be progressive, but he has them under firm control of political reality, which is very moderate. So we may see a slightly left of center replacement for the GOP 3/4 right of center, but Obama will be, and he knows it, bashed even worse by the 25-30% of the country that still thinks Bush is the second coming of Reagan.
I can see Obama choosing Volker to clean up the housing/banking afterbirth on the floor, but his treasury secretary will be wall street approval quality - not Nation magazine's choice. All that can be expected from Obama is cool reason, ideology-free policy, and ardent attempts at healing the partisan chasm. He will be willing to avoid denial of the Bush variety, and act as needed, but that won't be his first approach.
Let's not forget that FDR didn't start his first term as a major reformer. He was driven to bolder experimentation as moderate plans made no progress in getting the economy growing. It was only in 1936, during the reelection period, that FDR took on wall street full throttle.
More important than the Presidency in 2009-2112: the majorities for the Dems in the House and Senate. The GOP will filibuster every program suggested, as they have done since 2006. Only this time they won't have Bush to veto and force a 2/3 vote in the Senate to pass a law.
Lets assume for argument that Obama is spending the TV buy wisely. This could mean that he is trying to get the attention of a demographic that watches at 8pm and hasn't made up their minds or just needs to get more comfortable with him.
In addition I read McCain is shaken by the viciousness shown at his rallies. The two candidates are working to quiet this. But this is dangerous.
It could be that now the election is probably over that some want to hobble the future president so he has trouble governing. Look for arguments on voter fraud as payback for Dems post 2000 whining.
Re: Obama's 30 minutes - does it strike any of you as surreal that an address by a presidential candidate is more relevant than an address by the actual president?
Any of you presidential biography buffs - has the nation ever before looked to a candidate for leadership rather than the sitting president?
"The [Chicago] Sun Times today gave a major clue that Barack Obama will indeed go down with Tony Rezko, sooner rather than later. It looks as though Rezko is about to turn on Alexi Giannoulias, the 30-year old State Treasurer of Illinois (who was elected only because Obama backed him). . .
"Barack Obama will serve a prison sentence in the next few years--because knowing [prosecutor Patrick] Fitzgerald, there is no reason he would be going through all of this if that was not the targeted goal in the long term."
(Yes, the same Patrick Fitzgerald who nailed Scooter Libby.)
Whenever I wonder if i've just been lucky in my business dealings and investing, I regain my confidence when I read on a financial blog that someone thinks George W Bush is a liberal.
I didn't call them "experts." I don't think that term applies. I called them "serious sources." And they are serious commenters and critics whose own politics put them in opposition to Obama.
In your rush to invective I think you may not have read carefully. That happens to everyone once in a while. It's part of the reason why rushing to invective is not a good idea.
Reach out your hand if your cup be empty,
If your cup is full may it be again,
Let it be known there is a fountain,
That was not made by the hands of men.
I agree. LIBOR began increasing in response to repricing of risk. Effective ffr funds soon followed, with gargantuan OMO by FED below stated ffr. The market (LIBOR) wants to reprice risk, the FED is fighting it with all it's got and saying that it's LIBOR that's wrong.
gerald: i agree on the 60 (with a Dem. president). The GOP has had the Bush veto to make 60 not the final goal, since a veto-override takes 66. That's a positive.
But many of the Dems in the Senate are quite economically conservative, and attaining 60 Dems total (plus LIEberman) would be astounding - but even harder in terms of particular legislation. It isn't a given that the Dems can effectively govern without some Repub votes, and there are almost no 'moderate' Repubs left in the US Senate (or House, post election).
Bottom Line: some significant buy-in by wall street will be required for Obama/Dems to pass anything significant on economic/financial matters.
Is today Sunday yet? I feel like a tike waiting for Santa's Report; what about datelines, or East Coast versus my Coast? Where the hell are you and when will this all end?
"In addition I read McCain is shaken by the viciousness shown at his rallies. The two candidates are working to quiet this. But this is dangerous."
How gullible we are. Good cop McCain says Obama is a decent person, while bad cop Sarah leads the skewer Barak Hussain Osama rallies. You cannot un-ring a bell.
12th Percentile, I think the problem with Bush is that he is the only 'social conservative' out there. That throws a big monkey wrench into the whole voting decision for a large number of people. I myself vote social conscious first before economic concerns. That is the main reason why I ignore Obama. We definitly need a more well rounded candidate, one that is conservative all around...rigidly pro-life and pro market...anti government would do the trick...but that is an extinct animal...so it appears.
We definitly need a more well rounded candidate, one that is conservative all around...rigidly pro-life and pro market...anti government would do the trick...but that is an extinct animal...so it appears.
hahahah
I hope there is no DNA around, either. Let those extinctions not turn into zombies.
(Yes, the same Patrick Fitzgerald who nailed Scooter Libby.)
I call B.S. on this story. Libby was the goat. If Fitz were all that, he wouldn't have settled for the fall guy. And what the hell is "kapeech"? No reputable journalist would screw up a word that badly.
All McCain ads I see are hard negative. We are told that slime backfires but it always seems to work which is why attack ads are so common. After three weeks of being told that Obama is a terrorist lover, expect the polls to tighten. A toss-up at this point IMO.
I just hope the outcome is decisive and not the result of court action or real/imagined voter fraud. Given the partisan divide/hatred and economic stress which is likely to get worse, the US could turn into a version of Northern Ireland.
I'll be passing along excerpts of Conjure's report at 10:00 PM Eastern time, Sunday night. He won't be giving it to me until 6:00 Eastern and I'll need some time to have dinner and digest it.
mp, well a lot of contracts have libor, but if it ceases to be quoted they have backups.
popeye, this site has always had an end of days contingent. With the damage to the financial markets, they have smelled blood and think the system is done. Right now Geithner has most likely called all of the main players on Wall Street and given them their marching orders. They will be buying massively to cover mainsteet panic and then they will finish off any hedgefunds they can catch massively short.
I don't think pulling large amounts of federal reserve notes out of the bank for putative use during an emergency is worthwhile. If the system fails, cash will be trash too. Since, at this point, the system is nowhere near failure, I fail to see the utility of pulling out the cash. This is not 1932, and they don't hand over $20 gold pieces when you get your money. Want a billion in cash? Available from your local federal reserve warehouse.
Might as well take your credit card and go and buy all the scotch you can afford, after all that will be immensely more valuable during Mad Max than toilet paper with green print on it. Sheesh, if you have to panic, at least do it usefully.
All I see is a bunch of mainstreet panic that is not useful, and a bunch of folks here preparing for Mad Max.
Bah.
I just came back from Home Depot and my credit card worked just fine.
I have been trying to teach my son that panic is not a useful thing to do, and preparation and an appropriate response is a much better reaction.
Popeye is right, a lot of folks here need to grow up. Yes, the dollar will eventually fail, but not on Wednesday this week.
To my memory, Conjure has never referred to a "fear dial," but if there is such a thing and you asked Conjure about it, I'm guessing he would say that it can go far past 11, and that it probably will.
This is going to be Salvador Allende's revenge. The American economy is going to be made to scream.
And over the same weekend the campaign will run it on tape countless times at the remainder rate on a wide range of cable networks, even in the early morning hours up to and including Tuesday AM.
I'm hoping CR does a live feed for The State Of The Conjure Report and Id be the last to be surprised to see CRs site go down. Nonetheless, is there a time that one should be hanging around for this? I feel like such a slut, but when in Rome....
Popeye, the knob has 11? Reminds me of the skit in the movie 'Spinal Tap', but I get your point, just as there is a big difference between a Cat 3 & Cat 4 hurricane, I believe the difference between 8 & 10 is very big too. Personally, I don't trade short positions too much and hold easy shorts long term. My friends covered their shorts a few days or week ago, me, I hung on, the companies I short will eventually be ZERO, why screw around? the more transactions the more chance for error.
I agree the article looks pretty weak. I think the real estate Obama bought could be vetted pretty easily if someone wanted to do it. Was the loan for property under the appraised value on either home, did he get a sweetheart interest rate? Nothing really interesting or damning there at all.
The IMF warned on Saturday that the global financial system was on the brink of meltdown, while France and Germany pushed ahead with a pan-European crisis response to try to prevent the worst global downturn in decades.
At a joint news conference, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they had "prepared a certain number of decisions" to present at a Sunday meeting of European leaders as they work feverishly to restore blocked credit markets to working order.
Sue-nerd warning-check out Google Earth for Obama's house. You will see that the plot next to his house is within the walls of the estate! No one can access it except the girls. LOL
But it takes too long to explain to nail Obama with it to make any difference to the pursuadables.
I'm an odd sort who likes to deal in facts. Not too many of us around in politics or finance.
I'm not here to talk politics. Just point out that if people can't figure out basic facts about politicians, then why would they be able to about anything else. This isn't a political blog. There are plenty of those for anyone who needs to debate if GWB is a liberal.
As I say to my wife when she gets frustrated with the lack of work ethic, honesty, service, etc in our daily lives, "relax dear, if everyone was hard working and smart, it wouldn't be so easy to succeed"
Americans, in general, aren't well educated and most are pretty lazy. I was in Thailand, 4 hours off the coast on an island, where I was kayacking. My guide knew more about politics than most people in the US (and some people who post on this blog). Americans are in for a wake up call.
It doesn't surprise me that 40% want to demonize a black guy who is smart and hardworking. But perhaps they didn't head up the Harvard Law Review simply because they didn't want to because it was "elitist" and being able to shoot a gun (which i can do) gives them more street cred. How is it that being intelligent is now considered a negative? I'm not going long on that culture?
Hard work and common sense. If you got 'em, you'll be alright. If you don't hate people who are different you might also be happy. But that is another bit altogether.
'At a joint news conference, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they had "prepared a certain number of decisions" to present at a Sunday meeting of European leaders as they work feverishly to restore blocked credit markets to working order.'
France and Germany tried to tell the US not to invade Iraq. Didn't listen then. What are the odds now?
"I don't think pulling large amounts of federal reserve notes out of the bank for putative use during an emergency is worthwhile..."
I can't conceive of the banking system crapping out short of a severe pandemic, large asteroid strike or nuclear war. It will not be permitted to happen, because it would mean the collapse of authority, anarchy, some sort of end. Nelzya
The United States appealed for patience, but the International Monetary Fund stressed that time was running short after leading industrialized nations failed to agree on concrete measures to end the crisis at a meeting on Friday.
"Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest U.S.-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown," IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.
1) Huge Gov't spending
2) National Entitlement plan for affordable drugs
3) Gitmo=Japanese Internment WWII
4) Suspension of Habeas Corpus another FDR parallel.
5) Federal Bailouts
6) Subprime loans for poor people
I should think the liberals should be happy with Bush.
any of you presidential biography buffs - has the nation ever before looked to a candidate for leadership rather than the sitting president?
Well, that guy Buchanan was pretty well ignored before the election. I'm not sure if Lincoln was looked to for "leadership" exactly by certain portions of the nation. . .
"Let's not forget that FDR didn't start his first term as a major reformer. He was driven to bolder experimentation as moderate plans made no progress in getting the economy growing. It was only in 1936, during the reelection period, that FDR took on wall street full throttle."
Maybe so, but he did declare a bank holiday in his first week in office and then reopened the good banks a week later.
That Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac link is disturbing:
"Federal regulators have ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to start buying $40 billion of troubled mortgage bonds each month as the U.S. government tries to revive the economy, according to a published report.
The purchases would be separate from the U.S. Treasurys $700 billion bailout plan, which was signed into law earlier this month, Bloomberg noted."
This has the potential of being even more costly than the $700 billion bailout which at least has oversight. I can't believe that I'm even looking at the bailout as more cautious than this absurd plan. What is more insane is they are making no hidden agenda of what they are buying. They are buying subprime and Alt-A non-performing paper. If this is face value we are screwed and regional toxic corrupt lenders are saved.
Geez it just seems so naive to expect a change in the President to really affect much of anything, and a pre-election 'fireside chat' to be much more than another election speech.
The next president's going to work for the Treasury Secretary anyway; so is Congress.
The silver lining to the bailout is that at least we can't afford more Government programs for a while.
Bearly, the property had been on the market for ages. Obama's offer was by far the best the owner ever received. So she sold it to him. Bland as oatmeal.
12th percentile, I don't care about Obama's skin color, I care about his policies. I stated earlier that social policies (like abortion) are number one on my check list, like a great many voters too, not economic ones, although I have more money than the average American, if Obama was Pro-life and he still wanted to vote to raise my taxes like he said he will, I would vote for him vs someone like Dole who is Pro-choice, but that is not the case, so I ignore any preliminary study of Obama because he is Pro-choice, not because he is black...make sense? If Bush were going up against Obama today....in the same logic, I would vote for Bush. See, I don't put economics first...wish we had better more well-rounded candidates, yes, but kill your babies and you kill your future, it's that simple
More important than the Presidency in 2009-2112: the majorities for the Dems in the House and Senate. The GOP will filibuster every program suggested, as they have done since 2006. Only this time they won't have Bush to veto and force a 2/3 vote in the Senate to pass a law.
JimPortlandOR | 10.11.08 - 6:11 pm | #
If not quite possbile in 2008, then the Senate outlook for Democrats in 2010 is strong, so the Democratic agenda will have 2011-2012 to unwind the past 8 years. The question will be how much that agenda will continue to morph between now and then given the slow motion crash of our systems. Priorities then will look much different than just a month ago.
Buying your wife AND your mistress a gun doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do.
They both know about each other. The arrangement is consensual all around. I wouldn't have it any other way, and certainly I am not clever enough to deceive two women for any prolonged period of time. Seriously.
I am not pro life but completely understand your position. If that is what you believe, then you have to vote on that issue alone as it is too serious to ignore. Fair enough. If I believed what you do, I would have no choice but to vote how you do. Of course if I was pro life i wouldn't be pro war, but that is me. But, if I was pro life, then democratic candidates would be out.
That said, you single issue voters are easily bought.
McCain says he's pro life. The CEO of Bear Stearns says they are well capitalized. People say whatever it takes.
Bush said he was against nation building when running for office.
If you feel strongly about a few issues, you can be led to slaughter.
they have smelled blood and think the system is done
My biggest fear is that it isn't done and will become even more political and kooky, Brazil-style.
I do kind dig popeye's "attack the messenger" style, though. nothing like like avoiding the facts to win an argument. Great for politics, not so good for reality.
Modern obstetrical forceps were invented by Peter Chamberlen around 1600 and kept a family secret for several generations. In 1734 the secret leaked out via Benjamin Motte's edition of William Giffard's Cases in midwifry that detailed a case in 1726 that featured the forceps
You disappoint me. I expected a more clever response, on the level of Conjure's alternative to Archimedes, which was brilliant (and posted before my lame joke about survivalists).
My dad long ago told me about the Brooklyn Dodgers pitcher Billy Loes, who won 16 or 17 games every year, but never 20. A reporter asked Loes why he never won 20 geames and Loes said that he nevr won 20 because if he did it once then he'd be expected to do it every year.
All to say that living with Conjure can't be easy.
joe, how many games did the league have each team play each year back then? I'm sure 20 game winning pitchers in modern times wouldn't have won twenty games back then.
But more pitchers won 20 games a year then than today. Now teams use 5 man rotations and starters almost never finish games, increasing the chance that decisions go to relievers. Back then, there were 4 man rotations and complete games were expected, so starting pitchers recorded more decisions.
Bush is using the same logic for Gitmo, 9-11 changed everything remember.
For full disclsoure -I'm a Ron Paul supporter not a republican, I'm registered independent. I also voted for Elijah Cumming in Maryland so so much for the R versus D rhetoric.
Survivors adapt to the situation. Survivalists adopt a lifestyle.
mp | 10.11.08 - 6:59 pm |
That is brilliant. Sums it up quite well.
I was reading Survivalist blogs earlier and thinking to myself that there is no way I want go this far.
Nor do I like the mindest. Fear, and the williness to kill, are not survivor traits. Optimism and the ability to be open and flexible are.
CSC-I didn't need to click the link to recognize the lyrics. In the last six weeks, I've told everyone I'm voting for Jerry Garcia come November. From 1965 to 1995 he did more for people than any asshat in the White House.
Survivors adapt to the situation. Survivalists adopt a lifestyle.
I think it's collective psychological scarring from the atomic standoff. It seems to me to be a sort of magical thinking to cope with a situation without coping with the reality of the outcome that's a little better for nuclear nightmares than state system / currency regime transitions.
I'm curious to hear what the Conjurevision announcement is although I have some suspicions.
If you haven't read the guy from Argentina's blog (Blogger: Page not found, it's quite illuminating. He's got post after post about firearms, guard dogs, varying your routine, etc., etc.
Then he mentions that his parents emigrated to Spain and are having a great time, firearm free.
I think that sums up the survivor vs. survivalist debate nicely.
ullpointer writes:
the thing thats keeping me from jumping in is the fact i dont think we are at THE bottom.
... ahhh, yes, the perfect fit - the glass slipper - how many tried it on ? How many were near perfect ?
Nullpointer - my very favorite joke:
3 Anthropologists were exploring the deepest, hardest to reach, most isolated parts of the Amazon. All in search of the Foo bird.
At their last base camp of the season, the bird was finally spotted as it swooped down and shat upon the lead anthropologist. Everyone was amazed to have actually seen the bird; except for the lead anthropologist who could not stand the stench; rushed to the nearby stream and washed himself off. He took no more than two steps before he fell over dead.
The remaining anthropologists decided the expedition had accomplished it's goal and should head back. Several days into their return journey, the more experienced anthropologist sighted he Foo bird again. With excitement, he took numerous photographs; noting each entry in his journal. That is, until, he too was shat upon.
Again, it was too much to bear, and he ran to the closest source of water to cleanse himself. Yet again, two steps later, he dropped dead.
With great care, the sole remaining anthropologist made it back to civilization. With deference to his fallen comrades, he presented the textual and photographical evidence that the Foo bird actually exists.
As he did so, a shadow passed over him. The Foo bird had reappeared before all in attendance; and shortly thereafter shat upon the last surviving anthropologist.
Fortunately, he was a bachelor - and he lived out his remaining life without ever washing. On his death bed, his biographer asked why he had never bathed again. To which the sole remaining anthropologist answered, "When the Foo chits, wear it."
There is an answer in there somewhere, I'm just trying to put my finger on it.
It is idiotic. Think about it. You are pregnant. You go on vacation, and give birth in a foreign country. Does that make your child NOT a US citizen? Of course not. The children of US citizens are US citizens at a minimum (though they might be dual-citizens of another country, too.)
Now take your US citizen child. You decide to give up your own citizenship. Does that mean your child has given up his? Again, OF COURSE NOT. Your child's rights as an American citizen are his own, not yours.
Christ--the "Hussein" lies weren't working anymore, so now we have this bullshit.
mp writes:
I'll be passing along excerpts of Conjure's report at 10:00 PM Eastern time, Sunday night. He won't be giving it to me until 6:00 Eastern and I'll need some time to have dinner and digest it.
mp | 10.11.08 - 6:32 pm | #
The dinner or Conjure's report?
lawn grass writes:
"Let's not forget that FDR didn't start his first term as a major reformer. He was driven to bolder experimentation as moderate plans made no progress in getting the economy growing. It was only in 1936, during the reelection period, that FDR took on wall street full throttle."
Maybe so, but he did declare a bank holiday in his first week in office and then reopened the good banks a week later.
lawn grass | 10.11.08 - 6:45 pm |
Hoover actually suggested it. He wanted to do it during the interregnum between the election and the inauguration. Roosevelt blew him off then did it right after he took office. Roosevelt wanted to make sure that Hoover didn't get any credit. Roosevelt was a good enough president, but he was not a nice man.
Regarding the CR bookshelf from the last thread, here's one I read this summer. Good for us old slow guys who hope to become investors one day, not traders:
My personal comment on urban survivalists:
They have no idea what they are up against. You can't seriously hunt (animals) in a city, you can't farm for more than a fraction of your food, and those scary hicks from the sticks are way better armed (and better shots) than the city folks.
I view the survivalist comments (including my own) as humor in a pretty ugly situation. Do I want to be prepared, yes. Am I very fiscally conservative in the present environment, yes. Is there any point in really planning for Armageddon? Not except for the humor value.
p.s. A friend and I have started a group (that meets at the same time as the work safety committee) that plans for Zombie defense. We'll be prepared, if we have enough beer in the company 'fridge. :^)
Just out of curiosity MP, since you will be digesting the report at dinner, will it be rare? Or smokin' well done? bet a nice chili rub would give it that little bit of oomph!
@Popeye,
So what's your 'honest' take on the incredible losses being taken by the public directly and indirectly?
When I tried to criticize this Boom/Bust central banking system we have and start a discussion about it, you called me 'dishonest' and you called me 'scum'.
So what's your 'honest' assessment of this global economic/financial collapse?
Just a note: RBS has lost 87.5% of its value this year. Morgan Stanley has lost 85%. It was all just funny assets and funny money. Very funny. I sure hope the Japanese bank comes to MS's rescue. I have a brokerage account there. Two actually.
The upshot is that governments are going to own a large share of western financial institutions. These capital infusions are probably good investments, in that the governments are getting stuff very cheaply. This is what happens in panic. Those with cash at hand can make out like robbers. Since there is so little private cash, or most of it is scared to death, the governments that have almost unlimited cash can, as it were, cash in.
Morgan Stanley's total market cap is about 10 billion. The Jap bank was offering 9 billion for a ?20% stake??? I think the bank might well say, for 9 billion we want 99% of MS. Take it or leave it.
so what happens to the existing shareholders? was a question asked on the blog early on.
I have a question in reply: you mean what happens to the used-to-be shareholders, don't you? Or perhaps the penny stockholders, that is holders now with stock worth a couple of pennies. Their stock has shrunk. Terribly shrunk.
I'd love the names of the people whose investments have been wiped out, essentially. That is I would like to know if million dollar or multi million dollar guys on Wall Street are the ones. Unfortunately lots of the ones who have lost have more likely been "little people" invested in mutual funds that stupidly invested in now worthless stocks.
first?
Third?
so what happens to the existing shareholders?
really diluted...
The scale of the fundraising could lead to trading at the London stock market being suspended. This would be to give time for the market to digest the scale of the information and its impact.
Interesting news.
How many days did it take the Brits to go from announcement to action? Five days? Six?
And Paulson/Bush? Oh, they're still dicking around . . . a few more days until they finally announce a plan, then weeks before anything happens.
INCOMPETENCE=BUSH
why would you need to invest in a bank? aren't banks suppose to pay interest to their depositors? according the the dictonary "a bank is an estalishment for receiving, keeping, lending, or, sometimes, issuing money, and making easier the exchange of the exchange of fund by checks, notes, etc." oh, I see, it also says a bank is "the fund or pool held by the banker or dealer in some gambling games..."
--
The Anglo-American Empire -- the Rule of the Moneybags under the guise of democracy -- must march on. Bankers and financiers must be protected at all costs.
Jas
as ever Britain leads from the front
What happens to the cash that goes into these firms? Used to pay off debt right? And then when the situation is disclosed to be even worse?
Stealth bailout of the UK banking system. They should have just nationalized and wiped out the common and the lower tier bondholders. But of course, that would have triggered more CDS exposure...etc.
Just saw this on Eschaton and thought you might enjoy it...
Now, as he spends his last months in office trying to avert a global economic collapse, Mr. Bush has been telling people privately that its a good thing hes in charge.
He said that if it was going to happen at all, he was glad it was happening under his presidency, because he had a good group of people in D.C. working for him, Dru Van Steenberg, one of several small-business owners who met with Mr. Bush in San Antonio earlier this week. The president expressed the same sentiment, others said, during a similar private session in Chantilly, Va., the next day.
He said that whoever was going to take over in January was going to have a huge crisis on their hands the day they come into office, Ms. Van Steenberg added. He thought by this happening now, that perhaps everyone could see signs of improvement before the next president comes into office.
What a guy.
I forgot to note that the really interesting item is MS. Looks like they're not going to make it out of the weekend either...
And then there was one.
Separately, the future of Morgan Stanley, the American investment bank, is also in doubt today ... Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is reviewing the terms of a $9 billion (£5.3 billion) capital injection into the bank and may launch a takeover.
While I have no problem with a Japan bank taking over a US bank, I think it will cause political issues.
Mitsubishi control of a former titan of Wall Street actually kind of appeals to my sense of irony. Let some of the "Masters of the Universe" work under Mitsubishi for a while.
Better get to your ATMS' tonight and tommorrow m get out max for each day- If no resolution to G7 , G20 meetings this weekend markets will really crash . I suspect they will be closed Monady or all week . Bank holiday all week as well . Serious shit guys .
Bill
Abby Joseph Cohen appears on CBNC, says still bullish on the S&P
[Believes that most of what has happened over the past 2 months has affected the markets, but not the economy. Sees S&P 500 at 1550 by year end. Notes her firm has factored in lower corporate profits... Notes non-residential construction growing at 15%, exports growing at 10% rate. Econ growth is better balanced... Thinks capital goods co's look attractive, likes some tech and consumer goods co's]
Sadly Ms Cohen was relieved of her responsibilities in March. I imagine GS could no longer tolerate the lawsuits and ridicule.
Abby Joseph Cohen appears on CBNC, says still bullish on the S&P
| Reuters
Did anyone read the opinon page in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday? Someone wrote that the people with high school educations are going to be bailing out the people with college educations.
Bill, US banks will be closed on Monday anyway.
But I did take out my max ATM allowal yesterday, so am sitting on a little cash.
--
"What a guy."
merciless,
We are fortunate indeed to have the Great Leader at the helm.
Jas
I reckon my biggest concern about socializing global banking, is that people like Buffett will be paid by taxpayers and synthetically support his position of wealthiest humans on Earth lists, like The Forbes lists which are stuffed with the richest people, the top 1000 crooks, the people that took the most -- who are now being supported by taxpayers around the globe!
How is it, that the people directly responsible for this mess, will be the first ones rewarded, in a theoretical belief that they will do more good for those that have the least?
Did any of you question whether you have already pushed this market move as far as it can go ?? .... or are you so "in love" with your take on things that you actually imagine that the social order is about to change ? Jeez, grow up.
"But I did take out my max ATM allowal yesterday, so am sitting on a little cash."
I visited the lobby a few times last week. FINCEN is probably checking whether I am a drug dealer by now.
Actually I'm not. I'm just expressing my confidence in Bush/Paulson by becoming my own banker.
--
"Abby Joseph Cohen appears on CBNC, says still bullish on the S&P"
bearly,
I miss her appearances on CNBC/Bloom to reassure my bearish stance.
Jas
FYI TheStreet has a screener for weak banks/thrifts...
Bank & Thrifts Screener | Banks & Thrifts Market Performance & Financial Tools | Ratings Screeners | TheStreet.com
Did any of you question whether you have already pushed this market move as far as it can go ?? .... or are you so "in love" with your take on things that you actually imagine that the social order is about to change ? Jeez, grow up.
That's pretty much the main street point of view. I'd like to hope it's right but several trillion dollars of bailouts at taxpayer expense thus far suggests that it's not.
bearly,
Re: "Abby Joseph Cohen appears on CBNC"
In many ways, I agree. I don't see any type of Great Depression here, but I see social change and future value changes. The economy may do just fine without wall street and retarded people like Cohen. If wall street is forced to play fair, they will have less power and business on main street may just go on as if nothing happened.
ss,
I am a short term trader. I have bet on a substantial rebound, because that is my honest take on things. It's just my honest opinion, I'm not a philosopher.
popeye,
Good luck to you on taking bets, but make sure you have some spinach set aside for a rainy day!
All, I suppose this will be announced before markets open in the U.K. on Monday.
In the U.S., Morgan Stanley is probably the first test - and I'd expect a term sheet to be released by Treasury tomorrow.
Interesting times ...
Best to all
LIBOR is in Backwardation and Significantly Divergent from Effective Fed Funds
Jesse's Café Américain
LIBOR has ceased to function as a reliable benchmark suitable for commercial and residential loans in terms of US dollars.
It is in backwardation with an inverted yield curve, and has significantly diverged from the Effective Fed Funds rate.
This is most likely because of the Eurodollar 'short squeeze,' as shown by the record TED spread, and the inappropriately small sample size of LIBOR reporting banks.
Charge of the light brigade.
C'est de la folie ( it is madness )
ss,
The darkest hour is just before dawn. Buy fear. The threat of no Letters of Credit is a bluff.
Just my theory tho.
The interesting thing is that the article implies that only four of the institutions that were offered the extra capital have taken it up. Who's said no thanks. Might want to shift your savings there.
Pershing Square Publicly Releases Letter
Pershing Square Publicly Releases Letter to Regulators and Open Source Model Regarding...
| Reuters
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.
announced today that it has made publicly available a letter sent yesterday to
state and federal regulatory authorities. The letter introduces a new Open
Source Research project initiated by Pershing Square. The Open Source
Research project includes the release of version 1.0 of an Open Source Model,
a dynamic financial model that contains extensive detail on the CDO and
related exposures of the insurance operating subsidiaries of both MBIA Inc.
and Ambac Financial Group Inc. .....
Kona,
It's good to have different takes on things. And fear not... if I'm wrong... there are several years worth of spinach left.
Popeye,
Grow up? Where is the maturity level we are supposed to meet? Where is the responsibility level we are meant to emulate? Can you point out where the leadership is I'm supposed to learn from is being displayed? What system is teaching this adult behavior?
You are a player in a system that is unrecognizable from a few short months ago. I understand your commitment to the status quo but my reality is showing a system in transition with no clear future. Continue putting your money and faith into a system that is corrupt and imploding or grow up and make decisions related to ensuring day to day survival for my family. I get my drama but I also get the risk to our currency and financial systems.
Buy long or buy food? Hmmmm, food is looking good right now. 2000 years of fiat currency has many examples of failure.
Treasury Plots Morgan Stanley Bailout
Although the plan is still being formulated, it seems likely that it will be put in place in the very near future, perhaps as early as this weekend. The basic outline of the rescue will follow the program announced by Hank Paulson tonight. Paulson said the government would take equity stakes in banks, a part of a "standardized program" that could be applied to "a broad array of financial institutions." The program would be designed to encourage investors to put private capital into financial institutions.
Went to the mall for a few errands. People didn't seem to be buying less then previously; but this is not a buying time of year.
Went to a Japanese restaurant where they fry the stuff in front of you--much more expensive than the last time we went. But lots of coffee sales at Barney's. In short, a mixed bag, inflation-wise.
Sign on corner: investment house $54,000, appraised at $105,000. Capitulation?
To a poster on the previous thread. Cape Coral is the inner circle of doom. Elsewhere, I'm looking at a half--off house sale. People can afford that.
Realtor yesterday told me she's surviving on REOs and such. And the angry foreclosees are simply trashing the places before they leave. Not just taking appliances, fixtures and cabinets. Taking toilets, and punching holes in walls and roofs.
Destruction of perfectly good houses is one consequence of kicking people out. There are unintended consequences to not bailing homeowners out too.
The person that needs to grow up is you popeye. I've heard your position, taken it into consideration, and dismissed it as you talking your book.
Don't get me wrong, I value the position of the recent bulls. But you're going over the top. If you're on here to cheerlead, you're probably in the wrong place.
Furthermore, the only reasons for a strong market rally are technical. The fundamentals stink.
[If wall street is forced to play fair, they will have less power and business on main street may just go on as if nothing happened.
Kona]
If that happens it will be nothing short of a miracle. The velocity of the economy is now grinding lower by the day. My gauge is a car dealer buddy. His business is off 60% over last year. Many of his employees got kicked to the curb and the rest are going broke.
Our consumption is cratering and the consumption based economy will shed jobs like none of us have witnessed. By the middle of next year the USA and much of the world will be a very different place. Not because there are less WS Bankers but because our entire economy was in a massive unsustainable bubble and our governments are up against the wall financially...
ss,
I am a short term trader. I have bet on a substantial rebound, because that is my honest take on things. It's just my honest opinion, I'm not a philosopher.
Popeye,
From a short term perspective I could agree with you -- for the next week -- for the following reasons.
I don't see many other catalysts. Oversold is a relative term which doesn't really apply to situations like this.
On the other side, we could have failures to settle on LEH, BK announcements coupled to the settlement, MS failing to fund next week, credit markets remaining frozen, and lots of other news we just don't know about yet.
If I were a betting man, I'd try to be late to the long table as opposed to an early entrant.
Just some idle thoughts...
OT:
I love watching the geese fly these days and the organization they form is always interesting -- I'm thinking lemmings here also, but check this out:
the world as we know it is becoming "Government Owned and operated" Going Postal.....
Saturday is clearly the new Sunday which was the old Friday which used to be Monday.
No wonder we are in this mess!
careful with the cash ladies. In this town north of NYC thieves are targeting older residents because they know the memory of the Great P. has spurred them to take out their money.
In other news, anecdotaly heard about a banker at DB getting smashed nightly. Self medication? Merkel will save him.
Whether you are buying heroin from Afghanistan, or crude oil from Brazil, or hiring a laborer who's sending money home to Ciudad Juarez, or you're borrowing money from China, the net effect is the same. You're removing wealth from local economy.
Doesn't matter if it's tangible or intangible goods or services. Consumption in excess of production is not sustainable.
Any so-called solution that doesn't address the consumption-production imbalance will only make the problem worse. Governments' "investing" in banks is just more consumption.
Cars are well built. They last longer. People will rebuild their balance sheets and save some, and then will go back and resume life. People who sold stuff which has a long shelf life will hurt, since style and keeping up with the Joneses will be less important for a while.
What is needed, I repeat is a blood sweat and tears speech,with some fireside chat thown in together with some buying of unwanted sovent debtor's commercial paper, and cramdowns with some subsidizing of the govt.
this is why W's every word makes it
worse. Everybody knows he is lying/retarded by now. If someone came out and said it was awful, but we can get thru it, maybe that person would be believed. But not until after the election because we are. . . dopes.
Are we officially in a recession yet? I would hate for the End of The Financial World to happen whilst we aren't even in a recession . .
Keep cash hidden in the freezer where thieves will find it before they have to turn the whole house upside down.
woohoo: sushi in the MS cafeteria next month.
new sign on bank: Mitsubishi UFJ ms Financial Group.
Poor ole JP Morgan in his grave just puked.
bearly,
Re: " My gauge is a car dealer buddy. His business is off 60% over last year."
Keep cash hidden in the freezer where thieves will find it before they have to turn the whole house upside down.
I keep mine with the toilet paper -- seems more appropriate going forward.
The financial crisis explained. The new less choosy daddy.
YouTube - The Financial Crisis Explained
It's easy to make these sort of moves when the state's sovereignty is in the hands of one person.
Doesn't mean it is good for the subjects, though.
Lawyerliz:
No doubt Cape Coral was among the most frothy in the South Florida Market. What I commented on in the prior thread was that those homes showing a greater than 80% discount were reflective of the "true" baseline.
However, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County are a close second.
Here is the Case Shiller Data for Miami from 1999 to the last reporting Month in July.
In short what the data shows is that the Miami market has fallen 32.84% from it peak in July 2006 and will need to fall another 49.36% to reach a normal trend line for growth based on housing sales data accumulated from 1890-2000.
Half off is nowhere near the bottom.
By the way, I developed over 2000 units with Related in Miami from 1999-2005 and before that I was with Lennar.
(CR would only let me post a portion of the data given space restrictions)
280.87\t6.06%
279.42\t-0.52%
279.43\t0.00%
276.89\t-0.91%
273.53\t-1.21%
269.52\t-1.47%
264.89\t-1.72%
260.39\t-1.70%
255.29\t-1.96%
249.61\t-2.22%
244.35\t-2.11%
237.99\t-2.60%
231.71\t-17.50%
225.40\t-2.72%
218.74\t-2.95%
208.88\t-4.51%
200.42\t-4.05%
193.19\t-3.61%
189.87\t-1.72%
186.84\t-1.60%
\t
-1.60%\t
\t
-32.84%\t
3.59%\t
35.91%\t
32.50\t
123.00\t
108.71\t
46.92%\t12/31/07
0.2992\t
2.0944\t
125.09\t
61.75\t
49.36%\t7/31/08
Liz, oh Lawyer Liz,
The Fundamentals of the Economy Are Sound!
McCain, Bush, and Palin said so.
When have they ever been wrong?
Gone Fishing,
I am a short term trader. I'm just stating my rationale. I did not intend to either teach or to offend you.
careful with the cash ladies...
No kidding. My house was trashed in April. Took my jewelry and the spouse's coin collection, as well as whatever cash we had lying around. Didn't touch the tv or the computer.
We put bars up on the windows and doors. Don't know if it would help in the Mad Max scenario some of you envision, but for now it seems to be holding ok.
Maybe sorta O/T, but do we know how the unwinding/settling of LEH CDSs turned out?
Saw here, a few days back, that WaMu and somebody else's exposure is to be dealt with (hopefully) this coming week.
I also wonder if, in hindsight, Paulson, et al., regret making an "example" of LEH.
Out of toilet paper? Use the soft fuzzy leaves of the mullein plant also known as "lumberjacks toilet paper. Test carefully at first, as any plant can be irritating to some individuals.
dense-flowered mullein'
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Verbascum_densiflorum_'dense-flowered_mullein'2007-06-02(upper_plant).jpg
It is in backwardation with an inverted yield curve, and has significantly diverged from the Effective Fed Funds rate.
The LIBOR "backwardation" (inverted yield curve) isn't as significant as the article makes out. 3 month rates are higher than 6 and 12-month; but that probably just rationally reflects an anticipated end-of-year cash crunch, not a profound problem with LIBOR.
No offense taken Popeye. I'm a family guy with a small business and way too much uncertainty. Good luck on your shorts. Hope they are successful.
The Bank of BOBN, London branch, is now open for biznus!
Bill -
Have been taking out ATM limit ($600.00) in 20's for some time now.
I keep small bills, as larger ones may attract unwanted attention.
Word on the street is "be aware" of your surroundings.
I guess it depends on what street you live on (neighborhood, city, county etc).
Gone fishing. writes:
No offense taken Popeye. I'm a family guy with a small business and way too much uncertainty. Good luck on your shorts
Gone Fishing, I am long the market - just short in time frame.
And Paulson/Bush? Oh, they're still dicking around . . . a few more days until they finally announce a plan, then weeks before anything happens.
INCOMPETENCE=BUSH
joe shmoe | 10.11.08 - 4:45 pm | #
It's like Katrina, but on a grand scale - heckuva job Hankie.
On the positive side, the handling of all this dispels many NWO conspiracy theories - these guys are just too stupid and corrupt to execute global domination.
lawyerliz: Obama has purchased thirty minutes just prior to the election on one network. I hear he's trying for all three. Who knows, maybe more.
This could be his first 'conversation' with America.
Deana, I was at a local Chase here north of NYC today and watched a 60plus male take out a ton of cash. You could read it on his face what he was doing. He got the wad then he counted it, for quite some time. That's sooo smooth.
Now come on, Bush and all his Coup may be crooks, but in terms of stock market losses, employment and future cash flow are somewhat in place in terms of localized exchanges, but of course the application of credit liquidity and then the matter of re-building long term confidence are matters that remain unknown factors which may be destabilizing. Nonetheless, wal-mart and costco seem to have used enough derivatives to help them expand into every possible American community, so perhaps the tsunami of easy credit they obtained a few years ago will be there for this wonderful life XMAS season?
volker-
re: obama
bingo.
and he is just the one that can pull it off.
Is it that LIBOR has disconnected from the fed funds rate or the other way around?
My money is on the latter.
credit card at Walmart are really from GE Capital. GE is trying to downsize the contribution of this unit from 50 to 40pct. Do the math.
Don't expect much in the way of specific solutions from Obama before the elections. He'd just get attacked for them; his goal now is to win. He may display his ability to give a soothing speech, which is actually something a lot of people are looking for at this point. But no solutions until he wins (assuming he does).
Home Depot is, I believe another one using GE Capital for their cc funding.
if Obama wins and the senate goes 60/40, then Lieberman will need a wheelbarrow to carry them around on and for display.
Is it that LIBOR has disconnected from the fed funds rate or the other way around?
My money is on the latter.
Mine too. The LIBOR rates are pretty reasonable - 4-5%. It's the Fed Funds rate of below 2 that's strange in a credit crunch.
can anyone explain what the meaning of LIBOR will be when the banks surveyed for it are nationalized? Why should the planet's credit be keyed off a non market index?
Popeye:
or are you so "in love" with your take on things that you actually imagine that the social order is about to change ? Jeez, grow up.
The social order is going to change profoundly just from the dynamics of the crisis as they have played out so far.
Where's the lending gonna come from? No off-the-hook lending, profound changes in the social order. Period.
Between gvt security issues crowding out private capital and the drop in gearing explicit in the events of the last few weeks, the Great Deleveraging is going to change our markets profoundly. Even if the dollar is a major part of the transactional mechanism going forward, it's not going to be the same instrument it was.
What is so hard to accept about that?
gerald - "That's so smoooooth"
Dang, that song will be playing in my mind all night.
Seriously though, some people are not bright at all.
Sigh.
Excellent Graphic at the New York Times site on the depth and length of bear markets over the past 80 years.
- NY Times
fair economist-
agree 100%, nothing concrete.
even if ya don't like the guy (i am lukewarm), you cant deny his communication skills.
after 8 years of "the idiot", someone that projects calm, intelligence and leadership will have a huge affect in the crisis in confidence (of main street anyway).
The Great Deleveraging--trademark it fast.
Do you really want to be a shareholder in any of these companies. They apparently weren't thinking about shareholders when the levered up 30:1, they took all the profits and bankrupted the bank/shareholders, why should a government infusion be any different.
1) Tech Bubble- fooled once
2) Real Estate Bubble- fooled twice
3) Credit Crisis/Capital Infusion - third times a charm.
BTW-Just because a British accent sounds sophisticated doesn't mean that they are sophiscated.
Frankly- I rather overpay for the assets because I least you have something tangible like real estate.
I have to wonder about Obama purchasing time on Network TV to get the word out. Nobody watches the networks anymore, sounds like a good waste of money. So, now we know how he handles his campaign money...I believe he will be president too.
Might suggest Obama put some money up to advertise on the radio, on programs like Rush Limbaugh's. Lots of folk listen to that show, then he'd really get his speal out. I hope he wasn't boycotting Fox News like some Democratic candidates were making noise about, as the Fox Channel reaches alot of folk too.
Interesting to go back about 7 months to Krugman:
The Liquidity Trap Cometh... - J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with All Eight Tentacles
Think of the TED spread as an indicator of financial fever--with something like 0.3% per year being normal. Think of the short end of the yield curve as an indicator of how powerful the Federal Reserve's standard medicine of swapping Treasury securities for bank reserves is.
Keep cash hidden in the freezer where thieves will find it before they have to turn the whole house upside down.
Take out a drawer or two from a dresser, armoire, nightstand. Put cash inside envelopes and tape to back of drawers. Re-insert drawer.
I also wonder if, in hindsight, Paulson, et al., regret making an "example" of LEH.
oldtrader | 10.11.08 - 5:32 pm | #
Not to pick on you oldtrader, but I have seen this question too many times not to challenge it. Did Treasury have any statutory authority to offer a multi Billion dollar loan to Lehman? I think not pre-TARP. It is exactly that authority that Secretary Paulson asked Congress for in the original TARP proposal.
Exactly who could have bailed out Lehman without an act of Congress? They were not a depository institution and therefore not under the direct authority of the Fed, and one can make a reasonable case for the Fed not wanting to throw that kind of money at an investment bank they had no control over.
Signs with arrows along the side of Georgia Avenue (a main north-south road) in Silver Spring, Maryland: Bank repo sale.
I believe McCain wouldn't be caught dead on programs like Limbaugh's...Obama fans should be very happy about that one.
Might suggest Obama put some money up to advertise on the radio, on programs like Rush Limbaugh's. Lots of folk listen to that show, then he'd really get his speal out. I hope he wasn't boycotting Fox News
He wants to reach people, independants who will actually vote for him
Obama- Liberal acting like a moderate
Bill CLinton-a moderate the liberals thought was liberal
George Bush - a Liberal acting like a conservative
John McCain - a moderate acting like a moderate
Sarah Palin - a conservative acting like a conservative
Just a few thoughts
Sue,
Re: Do you really want to be a shareholder in any of these companies.
Copyright shit there, piss off ®
Why@Zirp,
I don't feel you're picking on me.
It was an honest thought, and you gave an honest reply. Still, given the Fed has "been going boldly where no Fed has gone before", IF they could've pulled something out of the cocked hat, would it have saved some grief, or merely kicked the can a bit further down the road?
CR posted a video earlier: Charlie Rose with Volker.
Did anyone hear him say that he was headed to China?
Hmmm...
Fair Economist writes:
Don't expect much in the way of specific solutions from Obama before the elections. He'd just get attacked for them; his goal now is to win. He may display his ability to give a soothing speech, which is actually something a lot of people are looking for at this point. But no solutions until he wins (assuming he does).
It's all about timing. If he times it so that the only shot they get is Sunday morning, okay. Then Monday then election day.
Lots of flailing and arm waving from Walnuts, but to what good effect?
No, 30 minutes is an eternity for electronic messages. He might even name some cabinet members and specific 100 day program. I have no inside knowledge, but if I had his money, and ability to deliver a message, I'd make full use of the opportunity.
Who knows? I don't. Remember, I don't know shit.
Nullpointer
Along similar lines re Obama:
issues of ideology or policy preference aside, all serious sources concur that Obama is also extremely smart, has strong social skills and the ability to read people, listens to dissent, runs an organizationally superb campaign, and seeks out first rate advisors.
David Brooks (very conserv repub) just said this (sorry don't have the link . . . I think it was posted on The Atlantic.com), but there are many more such confirmations from people who, like Brooks, are quite conservative. George Will had a column last week along these lines.
merciless writes:
We put bars up on the windows and doors. Don't know if it would help in the Mad Max scenario some of you envision, but for now it seems to be holding ok.
I've never been much of a "gun person" although I've always supported the rights of Americans to keep and bear arms. This year I am buying the two women in my life [wife and mistress] each their own firearms and sending them to safety/training classes. The ability to defend oneself is never a bad thing.
oldtrader - just a bit further down the road. People, including our elected leadership, don't seem to understand that the problem is total debt in the economy. It was unsustainable. Now it's no longer being sustained. Read the Michael Hudson interviews on iTulip about the FIRE economy. We're the toast.
Deana writes:
CR posted a video earlier: Charlie Rose with Volker.
Did anyone hear him say that he was headed to China?
I sure did. Good things are happening, but it won't mean much for awhile. Again, this is going to take a lot longer and be a lot costlier than the most gloomy forecast has predicted.
Anonymous, I think advertising on network TV is a pure waste of money for any candidate, especially taking a half hour to do so, as it seems that those still watching the mindless garbage on prime time are going to vote democratic anyway. Just a thought. And, if Obama actually tried to engage conservatives, what could he actually lose? I believe he has everything to gain here. But, it just seems logical to me, I won't be voting for him anyway, his positions are really very far left...like Warren Buffett's, who believes rich people should be paying more taxes but still insists on filing a Schedule A with his tax return.
Changes
"Finally, an optimistic note. I was reminded yesterday that the vast bulk of wealth created during the Greenspan/Bernanke bubble years accrued to the very top percentiles of population with many in the OECD middle class and lower class either stagnating or getting poorer as they mired themselves in unsustainable debt. While opportunity and employment grew strongly in emerging countries, there too the elites gained disproportionately as income inequalities surged. The crash of global financial markets therefore will have disproportionate effect on the elites, impoverishing them to a far greater extent, although it will be felt throughout society as employment, pensions, investments and public services contract"
London Banker
Corey,
A man has to take of what's his.
Kona,
I agreed, equity is a sham.. Until there are true shareholder protections your not really a owner.
Bring on the cottage industry, I left a publcily traded company last year and started my own company. You know the funny thing is the management will bend over backwards to please the analysts but could give two shits about the shareholders.
Byz,
It's not my place to question the knowledge, wisdom, or access of "inside information" of others. I state my case. I place my bets, I takes my chances... I don't lie. That's the best I can offer.
Corey, you might want to sit back and think about that for a minute. If the wife and the mistress find out about each other, then they'll just shoot you.
coreys wife @ shooting range: "hi, nice gun, what is that?"
coreys mistress @ shooting range: "its a glock 23....my boyfriend gave it to me yesterday"
coreys wife @ shooting range: "hey, i have a glock 23 too! my husband corey just bought it for me yesterday."
coreys mistress @ shooting range: "thats funny, corey is my boyfriends name! small world!"
..............
Hey joe shmoe,
What the fuck do the serious experts you quote actually know. We wouldn't be in the mess if we actually had experts, so don't tell me about Obama's organizational skills. If you want to give him a blowjob just ask him.
"crisis in confidence "
I hear that a lot, as if it's something that is unfounded and easy to solve with the soothing words of a hustler wannabe-Presidente.
Look, the problem isn't a lack of confidence. It's the opposite. It's the reaction to the realization that commitments/contracts/obligations are meaningless to a great number of Americans. That means credit standards and costs need to skyrocket from here because there is GROWING CONFIDENCE in the lack of will to honor commitments.
Kona- "LIBOR has ceased to function as a reliable benchmark suitable for commercial and residential loans in terms of US dollars."
Conjure says, "LIBOR is a torture instrument."
ah yes, when logic fails, resort to personal attacks.
good job sue.
Found my Kondratieff winter coat, but it shrank.
oldtrader writes:
Why@Zirp,
I don't feel you're picking on me.
It was an honest thought, and you gave an honest reply. Still, given the Fed has "been going boldly where no Fed has gone before", IF they could've pulled something out of the cocked hat, would it have saved some grief, or merely kicked the can a bit further down the road?
oldtrader | 10.11.08 - 5:56 pm | #
Kicked the can I think. Roubini has his flaws but he is right that the big investment banks are done. Even under the Fed's embrace we are discussing MS's sale or recapitalization here on this thread. I think that would have happened even if Lehman could have been saved.
Think about this, if MS and GS have problems that are only one tenth the size of Lehman's they are still in big time negative territory. If they are nearly as bad as Lehman, we do have a crisis.
Germany's bailout plan is expected to be in the range of $400-500 Bil
German Bailout Likely to Be Over $400 Billion - WSJ.com
Adjusted for the difference in GDP, it is equivalent to $1.6 - 2 Trillion for the US
Wow
No wonder Germany is reluctant to support other countries' bank systems
Obama (my choice) will not be a FDR. His mental inclinations may be progressive, but he has them under firm control of political reality, which is very moderate. So we may see a slightly left of center replacement for the GOP 3/4 right of center, but Obama will be, and he knows it, bashed even worse by the 25-30% of the country that still thinks Bush is the second coming of Reagan.
I can see Obama choosing Volker to clean up the housing/banking afterbirth on the floor, but his treasury secretary will be wall street approval quality - not Nation magazine's choice. All that can be expected from Obama is cool reason, ideology-free policy, and ardent attempts at healing the partisan chasm. He will be willing to avoid denial of the Bush variety, and act as needed, but that won't be his first approach.
Let's not forget that FDR didn't start his first term as a major reformer. He was driven to bolder experimentation as moderate plans made no progress in getting the economy growing. It was only in 1936, during the reelection period, that FDR took on wall street full throttle.
More important than the Presidency in 2009-2112: the majorities for the Dems in the House and Senate. The GOP will filibuster every program suggested, as they have done since 2006. Only this time they won't have Bush to veto and force a 2/3 vote in the Senate to pass a law.
Lets assume for argument that Obama is spending the TV buy wisely. This could mean that he is trying to get the attention of a demographic that watches at 8pm and hasn't made up their minds or just needs to get more comfortable with him.
In addition I read McCain is shaken by the viciousness shown at his rallies. The two candidates are working to quiet this. But this is dangerous.
It could be that now the election is probably over that some want to hobble the future president so he has trouble governing. Look for arguments on voter fraud as payback for Dems post 2000 whining.
ullpointer,
Logic isn't a second hand quote of anonymous "serious" experts" to explain someone's qualifications. Thats hows we got into this mess.
Re: Obama's 30 minutes - does it strike any of you as surreal that an address by a presidential candidate is more relevant than an address by the actual president?
Any of you presidential biography buffs - has the nation ever before looked to a candidate for leadership rather than the sitting president?
Jim, the key is 60 votes in the Senate-it ends debate and allows a vote=cloture.
Feckless, Ike was pretty exhausted when JFK came in; but my ignorance is showing.
Any of you presidential biography buffs - has the nation ever before looked to a candidate for leadership rather than the sitting president?
Probably not but, we have never had a George Bush as sitting president either.
President Obama? Maybe not.
"The [Chicago] Sun Times today gave a major clue that Barack Obama will indeed go down with Tony Rezko, sooner rather than later. It looks as though Rezko is about to turn on Alexi Giannoulias, the 30-year old State Treasurer of Illinois (who was elected only because Obama backed him). . .
"Barack Obama will serve a prison sentence in the next few years--because knowing [prosecutor Patrick] Fitzgerald, there is no reason he would be going through all of this if that was not the targeted goal in the long term."
(Yes, the same Patrick Fitzgerald who nailed Scooter Libby.)
In the previous thread, SteveA and Ministry of Truth pointed out this article from Bloomberg:
Federal regulators have directed FNM/FRE to buy 40B per month of "subprime, Alt-A and non-performing prime mortgage securities"
"About 35 percent of subprime loans in non-agency mortgage securities are at least 60 days late, while 15 percent of Alt-A loans are"
do i recall correctly that Tanta was worried about precisely this ?
mp,
Re: Conjure says, "LIBOR is a torture instrument."
It seems to be "used" as needed to extract pain to those that need it the most...
Whenever I wonder if i've just been lucky in my business dealings and investing, I regain my confidence when I read on a financial blog that someone thinks George W Bush is a liberal.
Thanks for the reminder.
Feckless: these are unique times. He assumed the mantle of the incumbent at/during the last debate.
Sue
I did give two examples - Brooks and Will.
I didn't call them "experts." I don't think that term applies. I called them "serious sources." And they are serious commenters and critics whose own politics put them in opposition to Obama.
In your rush to invective I think you may not have read carefully. That happens to everyone once in a while. It's part of the reason why rushing to invective is not a good idea.
A little thread music to chill everyone out as we fall...
YouTube -
Reach out your hand if your cup be empty,
If your cup is full may it be again,
Let it be known there is a fountain,
That was not made by the hands of men.
El Cliffo: like we say in the swamp: hide and watch.
the article i referred to is
Fannie, Freddie to Buy $40 Billion a Month of Troubled Assets - Bloomberg.com
Fair Economist @ 5:46:
I agree. LIBOR began increasing in response to repricing of risk. Effective ffr funds soon followed, with gargantuan OMO by FED below stated ffr. The market (LIBOR) wants to reprice risk, the FED is fighting it with all it's got and saying that it's LIBOR that's wrong.
The power's that be don't want rates to rise. It's the death blow for a credit dependent economy. See the chart link below:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SPDPYrHLT_I/AAAAAAAAF9I/U30kMnmJTOs/s1600-h/2008liborEFF.PNG
gerald: i agree on the 60 (with a Dem. president). The GOP has had the Bush veto to make 60 not the final goal, since a veto-override takes 66. That's a positive.
But many of the Dems in the Senate are quite economically conservative, and attaining 60 Dems total (plus LIEberman) would be astounding - but even harder in terms of particular legislation. It isn't a given that the Dems can effectively govern without some Repub votes, and there are almost no 'moderate' Repubs left in the US Senate (or House, post election).
Bottom Line: some significant buy-in by wall street will be required for Obama/Dems to pass anything significant on economic/financial matters.
CSC is here. Now the party can start
mp,
Is today Sunday yet? I feel like a tike waiting for Santa's Report; what about datelines, or East Coast versus my Coast? Where the hell are you and when will this all end?
sue-
it was the blowjob comment i was referring to.
thoughtful analysis with divergent viewpoints is welcome here.
vicious, vulgar attacks are not.
McCain is in the Senate. Ha ha ha ha.
But you are right about the more conservative Dems
When fear becomes the order of the day - you already missed the boat. But go ahead and pontificate, I love your drivel.
..."are" welcome here.
"In addition I read McCain is shaken by the viciousness shown at his rallies. The two candidates are working to quiet this. But this is dangerous."
How gullible we are. Good cop McCain says Obama is a decent person, while bad cop Sarah leads the skewer Barak Hussain Osama rallies. You cannot un-ring a bell.
popeye-
i agree 100%, i just think the fear knob is only at 8.
and yes, it does in fact go to 11.
12th Percentile, I think the problem with Bush is that he is the only 'social conservative' out there. That throws a big monkey wrench into the whole voting decision for a large number of people. I myself vote social conscious first before economic concerns. That is the main reason why I ignore Obama. We definitly need a more well rounded candidate, one that is conservative all around...rigidly pro-life and pro market...anti government would do the trick...but that is an extinct animal...so it appears.
I did read that comment incorrectly. Sorry about the obama-blowjob comment.
My apologies
El Cliffo
the link you posted looks very weak to me, with lots of suppositions and leaps of logic.
We definitly need a more well rounded candidate, one that is conservative all around...rigidly pro-life and pro market...anti government would do the trick...but that is an extinct animal...so it appears.
hahahah
I hope there is no DNA around, either. Let those extinctions not turn into zombies.
(Yes, the same Patrick Fitzgerald who nailed Scooter Libby.)
I call B.S. on this story. Libby was the goat. If Fitz were all that, he wouldn't have settled for the fall guy. And what the hell is "kapeech"? No reputable journalist would screw up a word that badly.
All McCain ads I see are hard negative. We are told that slime backfires but it always seems to work which is why attack ads are so common. After three weeks of being told that Obama is a terrorist lover, expect the polls to tighten. A toss-up at this point IMO.
I just hope the outcome is decisive and not the result of court action or real/imagined voter fraud. Given the partisan divide/hatred and economic stress which is likely to get worse, the US could turn into a version of Northern Ireland.
Jim
Plantagenet-it's when people yell 'kill him' that McCain goes soft. But yeah, maybe I'm just hoping.
nullpointer writes:
popeye-
i agree 100%, i just think the fear knob is only at 8.
and yes, it does in fact go to 11.
Naw, fear knob is at 9.975, and there are only 10 numbers. Fear monger's are out of time; it's too close to true.
CSC, you up to speed yet?
Kona- "Is today Sunday yet?"
I'll be passing along excerpts of Conjure's report at 10:00 PM Eastern time, Sunday night. He won't be giving it to me until 6:00 Eastern and I'll need some time to have dinner and digest it.
mp, well a lot of contracts have libor, but if it ceases to be quoted they have backups.
popeye, this site has always had an end of days contingent. With the damage to the financial markets, they have smelled blood and think the system is done. Right now Geithner has most likely called all of the main players on Wall Street and given them their marching orders. They will be buying massively to cover mainsteet panic and then they will finish off any hedgefunds they can catch massively short.
I don't think pulling large amounts of federal reserve notes out of the bank for putative use during an emergency is worthwhile. If the system fails, cash will be trash too. Since, at this point, the system is nowhere near failure, I fail to see the utility of pulling out the cash. This is not 1932, and they don't hand over $20 gold pieces when you get your money. Want a billion in cash? Available from your local federal reserve warehouse.
Might as well take your credit card and go and buy all the scotch you can afford, after all that will be immensely more valuable during Mad Max than toilet paper with green print on it. Sheesh, if you have to panic, at least do it usefully.
All I see is a bunch of mainstreet panic that is not useful, and a bunch of folks here preparing for Mad Max.
Bah.
I just came back from Home Depot and my credit card worked just fine.
I have been trying to teach my son that panic is not a useful thing to do, and preparation and an appropriate response is a much better reaction.
Popeye is right, a lot of folks here need to grow up. Yes, the dollar will eventually fail, but not on Wednesday this week.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Nullpointer
To my memory, Conjure has never referred to a "fear dial," but if there is such a thing and you asked Conjure about it, I'm guessing he would say that it can go far past 11, and that it probably will.
This is going to be Salvador Allende's revenge. The American economy is going to be made to scream.
And over the same weekend the campaign will run it on tape countless times at the remainder rate on a wide range of cable networks, even in the early morning hours up to and including Tuesday AM.
Mp,
I'm hoping CR does a live feed for The State Of The Conjure Report and Id be the last to be surprised to see CRs site go down. Nonetheless, is there a time that one should be hanging around for this? I feel like such a slut, but when in Rome....
Gotcha!
UK to Invest in Banks on Monday ...
Too little, too late ?
I see from the thread that Germany has put together a program also ...
Question is will this hodge podge of measures work ... I'm not so sure ...
Bigfoot: Yup, I'm caught up. Enjoying the discourse.
Popeye, the knob has 11? Reminds me of the skit in the movie 'Spinal Tap', but I get your point, just as there is a big difference between a Cat 3 & Cat 4 hurricane, I believe the difference between 8 & 10 is very big too. Personally, I don't trade short positions too much and hold easy shorts long term. My friends covered their shorts a few days or week ago, me, I hung on, the companies I short will eventually be ZERO, why screw around? the more transactions the more chance for error.
I agree the article looks pretty weak. I think the real estate Obama bought could be vetted pretty easily if someone wanted to do it. Was the loan for property under the appraised value on either home, did he get a sweetheart interest rate? Nothing really interesting or damning there at all.
420
Citizen AllenM,
This time, we were aligned. Next time, I'll charge attorney's fees - no retainer - cash up front.
Definitely need to check on my single malt supply before the Conjure report.
Sunday, 7PM Pacific 10PM Eastern: Do you know where your future is?
Thanks, MP, for the heads up. Tell the little trans-millenial guy I say hello.
Corey,
Buying your wife AND your mistress a gun doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do.
Just saying...
The IMF warned on Saturday that the global financial system was on the brink of meltdown, while France and Germany pushed ahead with a pan-European crisis response to try to prevent the worst global downturn in decades.
At a joint news conference, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they had "prepared a certain number of decisions" to present at a Sunday meeting of European leaders as they work feverishly to restore blocked credit markets to working order.
"Naw, fear knob is at 9.975, and there are only 10 numbers."
Conjure says, "The fear level can be directly correlated with the diameter of the opening made by the anal sphincter."
"Buying your wife AND your mistress a gun doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do."
Might be a path to freedom if played well.
Sue-nerd warning-check out Google Earth for Obama's house. You will see that the plot next to his house is within the walls of the estate! No one can access it except the girls. LOL
But it takes too long to explain to nail Obama with it to make any difference to the pursuadables.
"I am buying the two women in my life [wife and mistress] each their own firearms"
LOL! (by far the funniest thing I've ever read in HaloScan)
Misha
I'm an odd sort who likes to deal in facts. Not too many of us around in politics or finance.
I'm not here to talk politics. Just point out that if people can't figure out basic facts about politicians, then why would they be able to about anything else. This isn't a political blog. There are plenty of those for anyone who needs to debate if GWB is a liberal.
As I say to my wife when she gets frustrated with the lack of work ethic, honesty, service, etc in our daily lives, "relax dear, if everyone was hard working and smart, it wouldn't be so easy to succeed"
Americans, in general, aren't well educated and most are pretty lazy. I was in Thailand, 4 hours off the coast on an island, where I was kayacking. My guide knew more about politics than most people in the US (and some people who post on this blog). Americans are in for a wake up call.
It doesn't surprise me that 40% want to demonize a black guy who is smart and hardworking. But perhaps they didn't head up the Harvard Law Review simply because they didn't want to because it was "elitist" and being able to shoot a gun (which i can do) gives them more street cred. How is it that being intelligent is now considered a negative? I'm not going long on that culture?
Hard work and common sense. If you got 'em, you'll be alright. If you don't hate people who are different you might also be happy. But that is another bit altogether.
popeye/allenM-
i am in your camp - i think the "end of days" faction here is a little out of control.
i will admit i have my watch list sitting here, and am reading financials and doing valuations in between commenting here.
i personally think a lot of the stuff on my list, which is 70+% off the 52 week high, is mispriced, if you look 5 years out.
the thing thats keeping me from jumping in is the fact i dont think we are at THE bottom.
mmckinl writes:
'At a joint news conference, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said they had "prepared a certain number of decisions" to present at a Sunday meeting of European leaders as they work feverishly to restore blocked credit markets to working order.'
France and Germany tried to tell the US not to invade Iraq. Didn't listen then. What are the odds now?
Misha Mishima,
We all make our own peace. It's good that we can respect each other's perceptions.
"I don't think pulling large amounts of federal reserve notes out of the bank for putative use during an emergency is worthwhile..."
I can't conceive of the banking system crapping out short of a severe pandemic, large asteroid strike or nuclear war. It will not be permitted to happen, because it would mean the collapse of authority, anarchy, some sort of end. Nelzya
The United States appealed for patience, but the International Monetary Fund stressed that time was running short after leading industrialized nations failed to agree on concrete measures to end the crisis at a meeting on Friday.
"Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest U.S.-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown," IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.
I would argue that Bush is a liberal,
1) Huge Gov't spending
2) National Entitlement plan for affordable drugs
3) Gitmo=Japanese Internment WWII
4) Suspension of Habeas Corpus another FDR parallel.
5) Federal Bailouts
6) Subprime loans for poor people
I should think the liberals should be happy with Bush.
"i think the "end of days" faction here is a little out of control."
Conjure says, "So do I."
If the wife and the mistress find out about each other, then they'll just shoot you.
If you have a wife who doesn't know about your mistress, you're an idiot. Who else is gonna give you an honest opinion of if she's any good for you?
They don't have to go ou shopping, but if she's not coming over for dinner at least occasionally, you're doing it wrong.
sue
Was Reagan a liberal? He sure liked the spendy spendy.
Facts and truth about "..system on edge of collapse"
Read the facts/truth at article below.
MarketWarnings: Financial crisis: IFM warns system on edge of collapse (but we disagree: we are at the stock market bottom!)
@sue [Nothing really interesting or damning there at all.]
Are you joking ? A complex real estate transaction involving a politically connected now convicted felon where the price mysteriously drops $300K ?
And this hustler is the DEM Presidential candidate. Can't make this stuff up. LOL!
One other thing, Sue
You say "i should think"
I agree.
any of you presidential biography buffs - has the nation ever before looked to a candidate for leadership rather than the sitting president?
Well, that guy Buchanan was pretty well ignored before the election. I'm not sure if Lincoln was looked to for "leadership" exactly by certain portions of the nation. . .
Sue,
Don't forget nation building!
Of course republicans are going to call Bush a liberal. In their mind these problems can't be their own fault...
-wtf
"Let's not forget that FDR didn't start his first term as a major reformer. He was driven to bolder experimentation as moderate plans made no progress in getting the economy growing. It was only in 1936, during the reelection period, that FDR took on wall street full throttle."
Maybe so, but he did declare a bank holiday in his first week in office and then reopened the good banks a week later.
Archimedes said, "Give me a place to stand and I will move the earth."
Conjure said, "Give me a stun gun and I will teach a horse to deal blackjack."
Sidd:
That Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac link is disturbing:
"Federal regulators have ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to start buying $40 billion of troubled mortgage bonds each month as the U.S. government tries to revive the economy, according to a published report.
The purchases would be separate from the U.S. Treasurys $700 billion bailout plan, which was signed into law earlier this month, Bloomberg noted."
Market Place Also Reporting
This has the potential of being even more costly than the $700 billion bailout which at least has oversight. I can't believe that I'm even looking at the bailout as more cautious than this absurd plan. What is more insane is they are making no hidden agenda of what they are buying. They are buying subprime and Alt-A non-performing paper. If this is face value we are screwed and regional toxic corrupt lenders are saved.
Taxpayers get screwed once again.
MP
I don't understand. Is Conjure saying that he is not a survivalist? How did he survive the last 10 centuries?
Geez it just seems so naive to expect a change in the President to really affect much of anything, and a pre-election 'fireside chat' to be much more than another election speech.
The next president's going to work for the Treasury Secretary anyway; so is Congress.
The silver lining to the bailout is that at least we can't afford more Government programs for a while.
"Sunday, 7PM Pacific 10PM Eastern: Do you know where your future is?"
I will be there.
As David Hilbert said, "Wir mussen wissen, wir wollen wissen."
Bearly, the property had been on the market for ages. Obama's offer was by far the best the owner ever received. So she sold it to him. Bland as oatmeal.
12th percentile, I don't care about Obama's skin color, I care about his policies. I stated earlier that social policies (like abortion) are number one on my check list, like a great many voters too, not economic ones, although I have more money than the average American, if Obama was Pro-life and he still wanted to vote to raise my taxes like he said he will, I would vote for him vs someone like Dole who is Pro-choice, but that is not the case, so I ignore any preliminary study of Obama because he is Pro-choice, not because he is black...make sense? If Bush were going up against Obama today....in the same logic, I would vote for Bush. See, I don't put economics first...wish we had better more well-rounded candidates, yes, but kill your babies and you kill your future, it's that simple
conjure must be a blast to get loaded with.
"How did he survive the last 10 centuries?"
By being a survivor, not a survivalist.
sue - you left out big government - much bigger since Dubya took office.
However, suspension of Habeas is not liberal; it was not a liberal move on
FDR's part at all.
More important than the Presidency in 2009-2112: the majorities for the Dems in the House and Senate. The GOP will filibuster every program suggested, as they have done since 2006. Only this time they won't have Bush to veto and force a 2/3 vote in the Senate to pass a law.
JimPortlandOR | 10.11.08 - 6:11 pm | #
If not quite possbile in 2008, then the Senate outlook for Democrats in 2010 is strong, so the Democratic agenda will have 2011-2012 to unwind the past 8 years. The question will be how much that agenda will continue to morph between now and then given the slow motion crash of our systems. Priorities then will look much different than just a month ago.
McCain doing so badly his supporters have to spill their bile here ?
Nor, do I think, was putting Japanese Americans into concentration camps a liberal move. It was a response to the times, not liberalism.
Re: ""The fear level can be directly correlated with the diameter of the opening made by the anal sphincter.""
I've never had a baby, but I guess there be some women that would agree, probably a few men as well?
sue | 10.11.08 - 6:05 pm
Come on, admit it sue. You're just pissed because your dad named his son sue. Lighten up dude.
wtf writes:
Corey,
Buying your wife AND your mistress a gun doesn't seem like the smartest thing to do.
They both know about each other. The arrangement is consensual all around. I wouldn't have it any other way, and certainly I am not clever enough to deceive two women for any prolonged period of time. Seriously.
Misha
I am not pro life but completely understand your position. If that is what you believe, then you have to vote on that issue alone as it is too serious to ignore. Fair enough. If I believed what you do, I would have no choice but to vote how you do. Of course if I was pro life i wouldn't be pro war, but that is me. But, if I was pro life, then democratic candidates would be out.
That said, you single issue voters are easily bought.
McCain says he's pro life. The CEO of Bear Stearns says they are well capitalized. People say whatever it takes.
Bush said he was against nation building when running for office.
If you feel strongly about a few issues, you can be led to slaughter.
they have smelled blood and think the system is done
My biggest fear is that it isn't done and will become even more political and kooky, Brazil-style.
I do kind dig popeye's "attack the messenger" style, though. nothing like like avoiding the facts to win an argument. Great for politics, not so good for reality.
Modern obstetrical forceps were invented by Peter Chamberlen around 1600 and kept a family secret for several generations. In 1734 the secret leaked out via Benjamin Motte's edition of William Giffard's Cases in midwifry that detailed a case in 1726 that featured the forceps
See: Forceps in childbirth - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
By being a survivor, not a survivalist.
That's a CR classic.
MP
You disappoint me. I expected a more clever response, on the level of Conjure's alternative to Archimedes, which was brilliant (and posted before my lame joke about survivalists).
My dad long ago told me about the Brooklyn Dodgers pitcher Billy Loes, who won 16 or 17 games every year, but never 20. A reporter asked Loes why he never won 20 geames and Loes said that he nevr won 20 because if he did it once then he'd be expected to do it every year.
All to say that living with Conjure can't be easy.
Cheers
"Great for politics, not so good for reality."
Conjure says, "Red pill or blue pill?"
Conjure says, "So do I."
Did he look up from comparing the sales literature for the different excavators when he said that?
Politics bring bad vibes.
This thread music is dedicated to CR. It will bring a good feeling to your insides, I promise.
YouTube -
joe, how many games did the league have each team play each year back then? I'm sure 20 game winning pitchers in modern times wouldn't have won twenty games back then.
Conjure says, "Red pill or blue pill?"
Keanu, is that you?
I guess MLM and I have different taste in aphorsisms, but at least we agree on survivalists.
"Did he look up from comparing the sales literature for the different excavators when he said that?"
Survivors adapt to the situation. Survivalists adopt a lifestyle.
Politics bring bad vibes.
Just keep reminding yourself it's only a few more weeks and then they'll all go away (or at least have the grace to stow it).
thoughtful analysis with divergent viewpoints is welcome here.
vicious, vulgar attacks are not.
nullpointer | 10.11.08 - 6:24 pm
and our hosts don't like off topic political rants either....plenty of other blogs for that. read this blog to learn, lots of very smart people here.
YouTube -
MLM: Politics was my first drug of choice. I was 11 when I started contributing allowance. My folks thought I was nuts.
It took me forever to figure out the scam. It broke my heart and changed my paradigm forever.
Misha Mishama
154 games a year back before the 1960s.
But more pitchers won 20 games a year then than today. Now teams use 5 man rotations and starters almost never finish games, increasing the chance that decisions go to relievers. Back then, there were 4 man rotations and complete games were expected, so starting pitchers recorded more decisions.
Think what the value of that money today would be in bud. Shame really.
ew thread
Oh Feckless,
Bush is using the same logic for Gitmo, 9-11 changed everything remember.
For full disclsoure -I'm a Ron Paul supporter not a republican, I'm registered independent. I also voted for Elijah Cumming in Maryland so so much for the R versus D rhetoric.
MLM: LOL. Damn.
I'm sure many of you have heard it already but I LOL to "Optimists buy gold, pessimists buy guns".
Ron Paul...well rounded guy for sure
Ahhh, I get it, long on the market in hopes of a short-term bounce.
Is that a little twist in your gut, popeye, or are you just happy to see me?
Okay, okay, I'll do my part here.
"There's a good chance of a rebound next week" - yes, that's my honest opinion. I just don't think it's important.
Survivors adapt to the situation. Survivalists adopt a lifestyle.
mp | 10.11.08 - 6:59 pm |
That is brilliant. Sums it up quite well.
I was reading Survivalist blogs earlier and thinking to myself that there is no way I want go this far.
Nor do I like the mindest. Fear, and the williness to kill, are not survivor traits. Optimism and the ability to be open and flexible are.
CSC-I didn't need to click the link to recognize the lyrics. In the last six weeks, I've told everyone I'm voting for Jerry Garcia come November. From 1965 to 1995 he did more for people than any asshat in the White House.
McCain doing so badly his supporters have to spill their bile here ?
There seems to be a concerted/coordinated(?) effort to hit all the opinion sites this weekend.
Survivors adapt to the situation. Survivalists adopt a lifestyle.
I think it's collective psychological scarring from the atomic standoff. It seems to me to be a sort of magical thinking to cope with a situation without coping with the reality of the outcome that's a little better for nuclear nightmares than state system / currency regime transitions.
I'm curious to hear what the Conjurevision announcement is although I have some suspicions.
Anon @7:08 -
If you haven't read the guy from Argentina's blog (Blogger: Page not found, it's quite illuminating. He's got post after post about firearms, guard dogs, varying your routine, etc., etc.
Then he mentions that his parents emigrated to Spain and are having a great time, firearm free.
I think that sums up the survivor vs. survivalist debate nicely.
ullpointer writes:
the thing thats keeping me from jumping in is the fact i dont think we are at THE bottom.
... ahhh, yes, the perfect fit - the glass slipper - how many tried it on ? How many were near perfect ?
Nullpointer - my very favorite joke:
3 Anthropologists were exploring the deepest, hardest to reach, most isolated parts of the Amazon. All in search of the Foo bird.
At their last base camp of the season, the bird was finally spotted as it swooped down and shat upon the lead anthropologist. Everyone was amazed to have actually seen the bird; except for the lead anthropologist who could not stand the stench; rushed to the nearby stream and washed himself off. He took no more than two steps before he fell over dead.
The remaining anthropologists decided the expedition had accomplished it's goal and should head back. Several days into their return journey, the more experienced anthropologist sighted he Foo bird again. With excitement, he took numerous photographs; noting each entry in his journal. That is, until, he too was shat upon.
Again, it was too much to bear, and he ran to the closest source of water to cleanse himself. Yet again, two steps later, he dropped dead.
With great care, the sole remaining anthropologist made it back to civilization. With deference to his fallen comrades, he presented the textual and photographical evidence that the Foo bird actually exists.
As he did so, a shadow passed over him. The Foo bird had reappeared before all in attendance; and shortly thereafter shat upon the last surviving anthropologist.
Fortunately, he was a bachelor - and he lived out his remaining life without ever washing. On his death bed, his biographer asked why he had never bathed again. To which the sole remaining anthropologist answered, "When the Foo chits, wear it."
There is an answer in there somewhere, I'm just trying to put my finger on it.
Re: the Berg "lawsuit."
It is idiotic. Think about it. You are pregnant. You go on vacation, and give birth in a foreign country. Does that make your child NOT a US citizen? Of course not. The children of US citizens are US citizens at a minimum (though they might be dual-citizens of another country, too.)
Now take your US citizen child. You decide to give up your own citizenship. Does that mean your child has given up his? Again, OF COURSE NOT. Your child's rights as an American citizen are his own, not yours.
Christ--the "Hussein" lies weren't working anymore, so now we have this bullshit.
mp writes:
I'll be passing along excerpts of Conjure's report at 10:00 PM Eastern time, Sunday night. He won't be giving it to me until 6:00 Eastern and I'll need some time to have dinner and digest it.
mp | 10.11.08 - 6:32 pm | #
The dinner or Conjure's report?
lawn grass writes:
"Let's not forget that FDR didn't start his first term as a major reformer. He was driven to bolder experimentation as moderate plans made no progress in getting the economy growing. It was only in 1936, during the reelection period, that FDR took on wall street full throttle."
Maybe so, but he did declare a bank holiday in his first week in office and then reopened the good banks a week later.
lawn grass | 10.11.08 - 6:45 pm |
Hoover actually suggested it. He wanted to do it during the interregnum between the election and the inauguration. Roosevelt blew him off then did it right after he took office. Roosevelt wanted to make sure that Hoover didn't get any credit. Roosevelt was a good enough president, but he was not a nice man.
Regarding the CR bookshelf from the last thread, here's one I read this summer. Good for us old slow guys who hope to become investors one day, not traders:
Anatomy of the Bear, by Napier
Amazon.com: Anatomy of the Bear: Lessons from Wall Street's Four Great Bottoms (9781905641574): Russell Napier: Books
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
...took me forever
...broke my heart
...changed forever
Thank you brother.
what do you call a pro-lifer in the porno industry: a ron paul supporter.
My personal comment on urban survivalists:
They have no idea what they are up against. You can't seriously hunt (animals) in a city, you can't farm for more than a fraction of your food, and those scary hicks from the sticks are way better armed (and better shots) than the city folks.
I view the survivalist comments (including my own) as humor in a pretty ugly situation. Do I want to be prepared, yes. Am I very fiscally conservative in the present environment, yes. Is there any point in really planning for Armageddon? Not except for the humor value.
p.s. A friend and I have started a group (that meets at the same time as the work safety committee) that plans for Zombie defense. We'll be prepared, if we have enough beer in the company 'fridge. :^)
WOW - Deep thoughts.
Choice(s):
1) Wo/man want child/ren they can afford said one(s)
2) Healthcare: Wo/man want child/ren but can't afford said one(s)
3) Wo/man don't want child/ren: can't afford to abort (cost)
4) Wo/man don't want child/ren: stuck with unwanted said one(s)
5) Fill in the blank etc.
Just a gut feeling, many more child/ren in the near future.
Will/not work out?
"John McCain - a moderate acting like a moderate
Sarah Palin - a conservative acting like a conservative"
John McCain: Aging politician of limited intelligence desperate to win presidency at any cost.
Sarah Palin: unprincipled former beauty queen turned demogogue inciting hatred and divisiveness.
Agreed Fair Economist at 5:43.
Corey--I hope your wife and mistress don't go to the same gun safety class!!
Or, that they know about each other already.
Talk about unintended consequences!!
Agreed nullpointer, I don't think we are at the bottom either.
But I am anxious, as I do think there are fortunes to be made shortly, and I do want to jump in.
["There's a good chance of a rebound next week" - yes, that's my honest opinion. I just don't think it's important]
Go with it! Just buy OTM SPY PUTs for insurance, in case the recent savage beating refuses to let up.
Ahhh 10 pm for conjure's report? see you there.
Just out of curiosity MP, since you will be digesting the report at dinner, will it be rare? Or smokin' well done? bet a nice chili rub would give it that little bit of oomph!
Just in time for the holidays. Unilateral power with no mechanisms for checks and balances necessitated by a manufactured series of crisis is the pattern I am seeing over the last decade, and it is accelerating. Are These the Forging Fires of the NWO We Feel? « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
@Popeye,
So what's your 'honest' take on the incredible losses being taken by the public directly and indirectly?
When I tried to criticize this Boom/Bust central banking system we have and start a discussion about it, you called me 'dishonest' and you called me 'scum'.
So what's your 'honest' assessment of this global economic/financial collapse?
Just a note: RBS has lost 87.5% of its value this year. Morgan Stanley has lost 85%. It was all just funny assets and funny money. Very funny. I sure hope the Japanese bank comes to MS's rescue. I have a brokerage account there. Two actually.
The upshot is that governments are going to own a large share of western financial institutions. These capital infusions are probably good investments, in that the governments are getting stuff very cheaply. This is what happens in panic. Those with cash at hand can make out like robbers. Since there is so little private cash, or most of it is scared to death, the governments that have almost unlimited cash can, as it were, cash in.
Morgan Stanley's total market cap is about 10 billion. The Jap bank was offering 9 billion for a ?20% stake??? I think the bank might well say, for 9 billion we want 99% of MS. Take it or leave it.
so what happens to the existing shareholders? was a question asked on the blog early on.
I have a question in reply: you mean what happens to the used-to-be shareholders, don't you? Or perhaps the penny stockholders, that is holders now with stock worth a couple of pennies. Their stock has shrunk. Terribly shrunk.
I'd love the names of the people whose investments have been wiped out, essentially. That is I would like to know if million dollar or multi million dollar guys on Wall Street are the ones. Unfortunately lots of the ones who have lost have more likely been "little people" invested in mutual funds that stupidly invested in now worthless stocks.
MW
Try the end of this commentary: Calculated Risk: Treasury Official: Equity Purchase Plan to be Announced Within Days
I'm a little surprised at yr confidence in withstanding storm surges.
Anyhow, wd be most grateful to hear how late Nov early Dec are your way as we've had so many recommendations up north I wanted to check local
CC in DC