I have a feeling there will be one heck of a rally this week...at least I hope as I bought some SSO friday...if not, I will find the tallest building in town.
We are repeating the same mistakes of Hoover and F.D.R. Killing the capitalist system just to save a few banks. There will be no trust before the bad banks go bankrupts.
I must have missed something because some of you seem to be mentioning this "Conjure" individual. Can someone please tell me what this is all about? Who is this fellow/gal? Why is his/her opinion so coveted?
I'm feeling a bit optimistic. With the British general signaling that Afghanistan should be wound down, Bush backing away from North Korea a bit, and everyone on earth engaging this financial crisis, I'm ready to believe they can land this puppy.
Or maybe it's just that I'm full of (Canadian) Thanksgiving turkey.
anya: Conjure is something of an oracle. We've never met him, but his message is delivered by an old-timer here. You'll probably want to check it out in 90 minutes. It WILL be interesting.
conjure is mp's imaginary friend/avatar who has lived for millenia. See? We await his pronouncements with baited breath. Just because something is in your mind doesn't mean it's not real (see J.K. Rowling).
John M - I am a realist...if we go Mad Max in the US, the money I have left won't be worth a dam thing anyway.
This is a short term trade only, I have a feeling I might lose money, however, I think we are due for a 10-15% rally before we go back down again, we will find out...
Ah, Kristina, as per dead real estate thread, you can go on time if your county has docs on line and get a copy of the Exhibit to your mtg, which restates what your note says. Sorry to bother everyone else.
Anyone else remember what happened the last couple of times after we went to bed with a nice pop in the futures? Yeh, I bet there's a couple of you who do. Really well.
I think you guys are reading way too much into this "report" that conjure is supposedly delivering.
No ill will meant. Just don't expect a "how to" manual.
BTW did anyone else feel that we had retail capitulation on Friday morning?
I sure did....based on the number of sell on open orders that walked it down 800 points I really think that all those "investors" got cold feet on thursday night and just pushed the sell button. They are going to be mighty pissed if the bankster's can walk this sucker up this week going into options expiry.
Institutes snapped up all those "cheap"-for the time being- shares and didn't sell it off. We only got down to -500 points the rest of the day and then had that "rally" to take it positive by almost 300.
That was either one hell of an exit opportunity or a harbinger of things to come. Don't forget that was the second full day of shorty being let back in....
Never again, isn't that what you said?
You've been through this before
And you swore this time you'd think with your head
No one, would ever jack you again
And if takin' was gonna get done
You'd decide where and when
Just when you think you got it down
Your charts securely tried and sound
They whispered, Promises To The Marks
Armed and ready, you fought those battles to the heights
But too many opponents made you weary of the fight
Blinded by passion, you foolishly bet just to win
All the warnings went off in your head
Still you had to give in
Just when you think you got it down
Resistance nowhere to be found
They whispered, Promises To The Marks
But promises, you know what they're for
It sounds so convincing, but you heard it before
Cause talk is cheap and you gotta be sure
And so you put up your guard
And you try to be hard
But your chart says try again
You desperately search for a way to conquer the fear
No line of attack has been planned to fight back the tears
Where brave and restless dreams are both won and lost
On the edge is where it seems it's well worth the cost
Just when you think you got it down
Your chart decreases - under ground
They whispered, Promises To The -- Marks
mp - speaking of diabolical things afoot. I hear the deflation fight will involve repricing of assets in different denominations. Reordering the world financial order...no less.
if you are thinking $SPX 1265 you are going to get your head handed to you.
Yeah it's been a whole 16 market days since we last saw it - plus that highest volume weekly bar never draws price like a magnet. Let's just see where we stand 3 weeks from today
Rumour has it that Conjure Bag is originally from Iceland. When he was a young troll, he hung out with Njal and would go raiding with him. He got left behind on one of the raids.
Being well read and in need of work, he obtained several positions as tutor to the great and good. He credited with schooling the young John Law in finance, teaching corporate law to the founders of the South Sea Company, and mentored Dr. Havenstein, the president of the Weimar Republic's Reichsbank, on central banking.
It will be interesting to see what Conjure Bag recommends today.
There is almost certainly an element of panic in the freezing of the credit markets, and the bailouts should help that.
The main economic problem we're facing is the bursting of the greatest credit bubble in history, and no bailout or monetarist policies are going to avert the deflationary spiral and severe recession which will result. Those jumping back into the stock market now are fools, IMO, unless they are looking to make a quick score and then sell.
Beware of unintended consequences with the bailout. I don't see how 10 year treasury bonds won't rise very significanly in coming months- they are largely a bet on inflation in ten years and any fool should be able to see that the risks of inflation in 10 years has gone way up with this bailout. When the 10-year bond yields go up, mortgage rates follow, the housing bubble deflates even further, the CDOs become even more worthless, and so on and so on ...
I sure did....based on the number of sell on open orders that walked it down 800 points I really think that all those "investors" got cold feet on thursday night and just pushed the sell button. They are going to be mighty pissed if the bankster's can walk this sucker up this week going into options expiry.
Ok, MS, I admit, that exactly describes me doing my final bailout. Now what??
I hate glod. A silly barbaric instrument from a troglodytic era. Don't buy glod, you will be sorry. Those who buy glod are of insufficient I.Q. and don't understand the present environment. Don't fight the int'l CBs, they will hand you your head. Stay in currency or you'll be very, very sorry. Jesse's Café Américain
Does mp have his own website for the paper or does he release a link in the threads?
Anecdote: my mother is a retired speech pathologist who does accent modification for foreign origin employees of mid to large size businesses, including multinationals. A major health insurer just canceled orders for six of her clients; spending freeze ordered from the highest levels.
Haider was going 90 in a 45, passed a car and hit a foot high concrete wall. Massive injuries in VW Phaeton(very safe car). Today he was to celebrate his mother's 90th birthday.
Your guess is as good as mine...but at this point any signifigant ramp up (even say of 2-300 bp)of Treasury yields would further impact our budget and mortgage rates.
Leading to further positive feedback loops in the wrong direction.
there is no deflation. there is INFLATION as they are printing $ like crazy. it is deleveraging, not deflation. look at the big picture! deflation does not mean lower prices, but a reduction in money supply. inflation is an increase in money supply.
I have long been of the theory that Conjure Bag - the one and original trans-millenial dude - is real, and that MP is a figment of Conjure's imagination useful for communicating with us.
And, while MP is not a bad guy, I hold Conjure in awe.
If I had always listened to Conjure and did what he said, then I would be better off than I am today. Maybe locked up in a padded room, too, but I'd have more cash.
"Ok, MS, I admit, that exactly describes me doing my final bailout. Now what??"
if I knew that than I wouldn't be on a computer on sunday evening.
I'm sure you were not alone as most of the action on Friday morning's open was exactly that.....sell on market open.
IMO it's just a short term thing....every single options expiry of the last year has had major influence from the FED/Treasury and now the world's govt's and banks. It's getting a bit desperate as I can't imagine there is much left in that "toolbox" that hanky-poo speaks of so fondly.
If I had to guess we go up until Tuesday..shaking out weak put holders (although why they would hold anything into it's expiration week is pretty amateur IMO) so that the trade is not so imbalanced come the remainder of the week.
And no I'm not betting money on it either.....peeled the remainder of my Oct puts off on friday morning. THe is the deepest I've ever gone into an expiration.
serious moo goo: What's kinf of sad is that I wasn't joking at all about Pippi. I worshipped her and loved the panty shots when she went up the ladder at Villa Villekulla.
I watched a few episodes again a month or so ago and my wife said, "My God, you act like that child character at age 36." I smiled inside.
Of course, I only dig the Astrid Lindgren versions.
Consider as a replacement for the Dollar as an international currency, an enriched uranium-backed currency.
"Cash" would be a claim on the revenues from generating electricity.
Fractional reserve lending would be banned, since money-from-nowhere would outstrip the actual atoms backing it. The fraudsters would try to back trash with uranium not yet enriched, or not yet mined -- the best response would be the Guillotine for those that tried (and the Wheel for any who succeeded).
As the nuclear powers went broke (US, Pakistan, ...) went broke, they would feed their people by gradually selling off their arsenals.
The one drawback I see is the relatively large ratio of mining/usage to present stockpiles After two decades of intense mining, which would be inflationary, I think that problem would diminish. Given the huge inertia of mining and power generation, you would be able to predict the money supply years in advance.
Yeah, pomegranate juice was $2.99 at the Westside Market today and I kind of stopped to think about the upside of this whole deflation debacle. All kinds of luxury items are gonna be marked down something furious come December.
there is no deflation. there is INFLATION as they are printing $ like crazy. it is deleveraging, not deflation. look at the big picture! deflation does not mean lower prices, but a reduction in money supply. inflation is an increase in money supply.
Yankee
I do not know why some people have this "dedication" for telling others what to do(?) and in dogmatic words (funny). It is called preaching I think.
wisdom = knowing yourself = what is right for YOU (individually)
Even what is correct for even 99% of people... is not for 100%
as they say in Europe "the exception confirms the rule"
people love to make rules, it is "comforting", it simplifies all they feel as confusion.
Mostly it shows a total lack of training in sciencific methodology. Science is not knowledge, it is about methods, that enable you to figure out what you do not know that you should know. That applies to everything.
But of course it is always easier for most to pile behind an image.
When you sense hysteria, and that a turn is around the corner, like last week, it is hard not to hope to "save" a few from dumping at the (temporary) lows... but that is as far as reason should go , perhaps.
The last time I was in Estonia was in 1988 as a kid.... Soviet army officers kept hogging the Formula video game at the hotel lobby. The only one in Estonia, probably. Would love to return and see the contrast. The Old Town is the best preserved Medieval town center in the world... something you don't appreciate as a child.
Pretty soon you can pick up an apartment dating back to 1470 for 200 K, I bet.
--
"I bought 5 avocados for $1 today. If that's what deflation will be like, I say BRING IT!"
Currently Smoking Cannabis,
There IS inflation in stupidity and deflation in smarts! Stupid people somehow end up paying more. Sometimes out of fear! I better buy this Scam, or this house, before it goes up another 20%.
If i were conjure , i'd be recommending things that will be a part of this workd regardless of who owes what to whom.
steel, electricty and a book keeper
Sad hell! If people stuck with what fascinated them as a child and let that fascination drive their intellectual curiosity their entire lives, the world would be a much less cynical place, IMHO.
Prolly a lot more inventive and accepting as well.
you use the term amateur a bit readily: it what the call of an amateur not to sell the longs on Friday close is what you said Friday, right?
(you may still be right, it is not the open yet
tranches of lucifer writes:
Conjure's report may very well include references to bird entrails, dog balls, Zulu canes, and a naked Lisa Bonet. Be prepared.
I'll be disappointed if Conjure doesn't have words about at least two of things.
When I get up tomorrow morning there are 3 things I need. Gasoline, electricity and water.
Gasoline prices are crashing big time here in West Appalachia. October 3rd AM price=> $3.29/gallon... tonight $2.46/gallon. It's dropping every 12 hours. Looks like a whole lotta price deflation going on.
Estonia was arguably the most capitalist country in the world until this year... lowest corporate taxes, etc. They went for this Reagan experiment. Tallinn real estate exploded into a huge orgy of price hikes... we're talking 2 million dollar town houses. They got whole blocks of perfectly preserved, 600 years old buildings with original oak floors and stuff. Let's see how they navigate this whole mess - the real estate is collapsing right now.
National debt has grown over $245 Billion in the last 8 days. This does not include all the money that will need to be raised for the $700 Billion Paulson freak show.
At this rate, we will add over 7 Trillion to the debt in the next year. Wheeee!
I walked through the local BestBuy today to do my surveying. Hardly a soul was looking at the wall of flat screens and most of the people there were single retirees. The rest seem to have just come from the pet store like me.
Also my local hardware store tells me business is down.
Currently Smoking Cannabis: I used to watch Pippi when I was a kid, of course she was new back then. Even better now on YouTube...you know...with the pause button...and all......
I wanted to stop in Kalingrad with the family. They vetoed it. Even after I showed them the website where you can ride in actual functioning Soviet tanks and blow stuff up. My wife was a bit put off by the armed escort with connections to the local Polizei.
Yeah, that is much more derogatory term than born-and-bred dopes, something that most people can't help. Breeding dopes (to have faith in and support the system, e.g., democracy) has been very common thru history.
@There is inflation in the things you need and deflation in the things you cannot afford.
I think this paradox is what we'll be seeing more of as things, uh, "progress." Roubini's saying deflation is the major concern, but what if it's just short term? If I could come to peace with either concept, I'd sleep better at night.
I bought 5 avocados for $1 today. If that's what deflation will be like, I say BRING IT!
Currently Smoking Cannabis
I got organic gala apples for less than a dollar a pound. Yay!
Micro-economic report across the tracks. Things are getting a little more violent in the poorer side of town. We had two multiple knife wounds and a gunshot wound admitted last night. One of the gangbangers wanted to provide "protection" by stationing a "guard", armed no less, outside the patient's door. That was a fun negotiation.
CSC: Can you rip them and do a Torrent?
Canadian watching with popcorn
I have no clue how to do the torrent thing. When I left the IT world, I became a techtard. I have a laptop and an iPhone, but that's it. We don't even have a home phone or TV.
Pippi was a metaphor of leftwing radicalism and her two milquetoast friends a reflection of Swedish bourgeoisie pining for change.
Bless Astrid Lindgren... I read "My brother the lionheart" when I was seven and cried for an hour after it ended with a double suicide of poor, terminally ill brothers doomed by bad healthcare policies.
The honest "working class" immigrant part of town I live next to has gone from honest and hardworking to incredibly violent and crime-ridden over the last 3 months. Home invasion robberies are up like crazy, people standing around in the streets in the middle of the weekday, breaking into cars in broad daylight oblivious to witnesses. It's like some kind of fever or sickness has gone through the people who live there, as if they know that their time is short.
"Two of Britain's biggest high street banks will in effect be nationalised today in a dramatic move by the Government that follows a day of international negotiations aimed at co-ordinating a pan-European approach to the global financial crisis. The development, where the state will take a majority shareholding in Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and a large share of Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), emerged as European leaders appeared ready to follow the UK-led strategy of bailing out ailing banks by using public funds to take large stakes in them."
To elaborate on my previous post; you know the difference between an area where the criminals try to steal and run, or break into or take things when people aren't looking, and an area where people will feel comfortable walking up to a car and just smashing the window and removing the stereo in broad daylight, and just staring at you if you watch them? That change from one to the other has been taking place before my very eyes, and I'm not living in the ghetto; this is Silicon Frickin Valley.
"Democracy" is not the problem. Propaganda and excessive wealth concentration (which fuels the propaganda) is the problem. These problems can, and usually do, appear in non-democracies as well.
The two-party system (i.e. the extreme difficulty of forming viable third parties) is another problem. There is no true labor party in the US. Workers have almost no voice... the Dems offer only the most tepid support for labor interests.
Penrod and Hoopajoop, I work at the largest trauma level 1 hospital in my area. They always place those in areas where we can better serve our most frequent "clients". We have been told now that we have to be escorted out to our cars by security guard, no option anymore. Yeah, it's going to be fun.
No, not San Jose; just outside of Palo Alto, where it's supposed to be solidly yuppified. I wouldn't consider this change in attitude on the street to be remarkable if this were San Jose or East Palo Alto. Palo Alto proper has seen a sudden upswing in armed robberies on the street in the last month as well.
China's CIC May Have $5.4 Billion Frozen in Money-Market Fund
By Miles Weiss and Belinda Cao
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- China Investment Corp., the sovereign wealth fund that bought stakes in Morgan Stanley and Blackstone Group LP before their stocks plunged, may have as much as $5.4 billion frozen in a U.S. money-market account.
The amateur reference of Friday was for one poster who has made his continued bottom calls here a very large source of entertainment.
He knows who he/she is.
Anyone that bought into the swoon of the morning session and didn't sell it out when it got pushed up towards the close is an amateur in my book-that was a 1k swing in the space of ONE (1) session-ever seen that before??? Neither have they.
Booked profit is better than any excuse you can come up with for not taking the free money...because that's EXACTLY what that was.
Hold and hope is not a way to consistently make money.
EU and UK take care of their big banks, money (or part of it) is going to move there. Thus USD goes down, oil up and we start worrying about inflation.
Democrats win the election (bad economic situation), they push for the plan. I think the plan will have $1000 cash back to people (helicopter Ben) and lots of spending (and helping hands) for state gov, which are in trouble.
Some people will save money or pay back debt but there will be spending increase, so this will add to inflation a bit. The plan will be financed by issuing more debt since we are not going to increase taxes (Obama's 250k+ tax increase is not bringing in money, and is helping consumption). More debt means the value of the dollar goes down again, thus we have inflation. Again.
Since the markets are so volatile, it is enough to see a one time big decline in USD dollar (say 5% in one day) which will scare people into staying away from USD. This is the shock that raises the inflation expectations.
No matter how I try to think about this I end up with increases in price for ordinary items (non durable goods); for everything else (durable goods, house, etc) I expect the price level to go down. What am I missing?
I try to tell people to watch their immediate surrondings. I did business on the streets of LA during the 1990's recession. At times, it became violent. Bizzare unexpainable sh_t happened. This period is going to be far worse. If U-6 reaches 20+ percent in some urban areas, which many are predicting, many people are just not going to give a fu_k.
Especially those that lived "high on the hog" for the last four years that should have never been given the opportunity to do so. The withdrawal symptoms and feelings of futility can be overpowering for those that are now in need whose previous existence was supported by greed.
Anyone been to Belarus? I hear it's the most awfulest country in the whole wide world
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 10.12.08 - 9:45 pm | #
I have a lot of family back in Belarus. When my family goes back there to visit all they tell me is that they cannot wait to get back to the USA. There is no work outside the cities so there are no young people in the villages.
Home values are just beginning to crack in Palo Alto and on the Penninsula, down to Los Gatos. It was an island of cash and homes bought with cash that kept rising in value, until last week.
From the posts Im reading here it seems some true Bears took a nice gamble on a nice pop on Mon & Tues. I did. I sure wouldnt be greedy though. My Grandfather always said "dont cry over a profit". Good luck to all!
I am extremely aware of the potential for home invasion robberies, and am in fact anticipating them as a natural progression of what I see every day on the street.
Miranda: When California got its medical marijuana community humming, there was a battle over dispensaries paying taxes. Many did not, and their reasons were, in my opinion, quite stupid.
I was involved with the community and argued loudly that our chance to ever be taken seriously again would evaporate if we did not hold up our end of the deal. I think we should pay taxes, follow the rules, and show the public that we're not just rebels who want to be rebels. For me it is an issue of being able to make my own decisions regarding my body.
Many in the marijuana community are insincere when they speak about why it should be legal. As soon as they are given the chance to be legit, their position changes and they want more.
I support taxing the hell out of it. I support anything that would allow the public to see the truth about cannabis. But I fear many stoners will do their best to keep it exciting and 'counterculture.' This is my biggest break with my peers.
Trotsky: my take on the situation from family, friends, colleagues and acquaintances is that no, the spending is o.v.e.r. For several years, while people repair their household balance sheets.
People seem to be feeling pretty burned about this whole situation. Something about diligently adding to their retirement accounts, then watching those account be destroyed within a matter of days, while the MSM bandies around the big "D" word.
So, they provide all the "credit" they want, but if people aren't interested in borrowing, game over.
"Palo Alto police are increasing neighborhood patrols in response to a jump in the number of robberies in the city over the past three months, a police spokesman said today.
Since the end of June there have been 15 strong-arm and armed robberies in Palo Alto, Agent Dan Ryan said. Four have occurred in just in the last week
The robberies are not occurring in one particular area, but throughout the entire city, Ryan said. "
I found this link for tracking crime in your area. Entered PA and 7 days. Did seem elevated, but not horrific to me (I grew up there, the 60's through the 80's).
CSC, there has been an increase in car prowls in the employee garage, a few purse snatchings in the visitor garage and an increase per the cops of "activity" in the area. The hospital is located in the central part of the city. Lots of "loitering" going on and a slight increase (so far) in the ED treating GSWs and knifings. During this time of year as it gets colder and wetter, even when the economy was booming, there is an increase in "business" being transacted in the garages. I have a hunch things could get really ugly.
The governor here (WA) is going to have a shortfall in her budget. She has already enacted a 1% across the board cut in all government agencies. When the social services safety net dries up, the central part of the city erupts.
Also, if anyone has tried to explain this financial nightmare to anyone Nouriel Roubini has a nice 1:06 min audio available on mp3 on his site from 10-02-08 that explains it all very well. I know most of us have been following it here on CR & NRs RGE but trying to explain it to some is difficult for me. Its worth sending them the audio of this if they want to get an understanding for it.
According to Bloomberg: "The 2009 budget deficit could be close to $2 trillion, or 12.5 percent of gross domestic product, more than twice the record of 6 percent set in 1983, according to David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley's chief economist. Two weeks ago, budget analysts said the measures might push deficit to as much as $1.5 trillion."
Whereismyretirement my experience is that at the beginning its all a shell game in gov't budget cuts e.g. "we won't fill these vacant positions we have." I haven't seen them actually cut anything in over a decade.
If my boomer dad owns mostly bond funds (let's assume its just a typical Vanguard, Fidelity type deal) and 10 year Treasury interest rates sky-rocket to the 8-10% range ... what's the impact? I assume this means the bond fund gets scorched. Sorry in advance, I know this is a dummy question. I was good on the verbal SAT, not the math section.
So if we do see a bank holiday that lasts more than a day or two - how long do folks see people in metro areas living without access to cash/credit before bad things happen??
In other words does a week long freeze of the banking system see widespread unrest? Less time or more??
I think anything more than 72 hrs is probably the tipping point. Thoughts?
Extrasensory perception (ESP) is the apparent ability to acquire information by paranormal means independent of any known physical senses or deduction from previous experience.
OT: I was in one of the big four aussie banks today (monday) and as an aside asked the branch manager if anyone was asking for their cash. He said that yeah they had a lot of people come in last week with serious faces, asking to speak to the manager and wanting to withdraw all their money as cash ..
I have to guess that trend was communicated to the Rudd government last week, and forced their hand on the deposit guarantee.
HKMA's Yam Says Hong Kong Banking System Is `Sound'
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Joseph Yam said the city's banking system is sound and healthy'' and lenders in the territory haveample'' liquidity, reiterating earlier remarks.
The HKMA has emergency packages that we can use in times of emergencies and depending on circumstances,'' Yam told reporters in Hong Kong today.If we rush into using them then people may get the wrong perception about the market.''
Yam's remarks come a day after a government official said Hong Kong may use all of its foreign reserves to stabilize its financial markets after the global credit crisis caused the benchmark Hang Seng Index to plunge 47 percent this year.
Hong Kong needs to stabilize its financial market by any means or see problems in all industries,'' Billy Mak, a finance professor at Hong Kong Baptist University, said yesterday.It's a matter of faith. Hong Kong's financial system hasn't had serious problems so far.''
Hong Kong holds HK$1.4 trillion ($180 billion) of foreign currency reserves, Hong Kong Commercial Broadcasting cited Chief Secretary Henry Tang as saying. Foreign reserves should be used to support the local currency's peg to the dollar so as to avoid bank runs, Mak said.
We'll use all the ammunition if we have to,'' Julia Leung, under secretary for financial services, said in an interview with Hong Kong Commercial Broadcasting. </b>Hong Kong should have faith. Smaller companies are already being hit by the lack of capital in the market.''
....
I think I'll go home and mull this over
Before I cram it down my throat
At long last it's crashed, the colossal mass
Has broken up into bits in my moat.
Lift the mattress off the floor
Walk the cramps off
Go meander in the cold
Hail to your dark skin
Hiding the fact you're dead again
Underneath the power lines seeking shade
Far above our heads are the icy heights that contain all reason
It's a luscious mix of words and tricks
That let us bet when you know we should fold.
On rocks I dreamt of where we'd stepped.
And the whole mess of roads we're now on.
Hold your glass up, hold it in
Never betray the way you've always known it is.
One day I'll be wondering how
I got so old just wondering how
I never got cold wearing nothing in the snow.
This is way beyond my remote concern
of being condescending.
All these squawking birds won't quit.
Building nothing, laying bricks.
"10 year Treasury interest rates sky-rocket to the 8-10% range ... what's the impact?"
Your verbal skills serve you well. Scorched is the right word. The bonds are probably mixed in duration. The short ones are little affected. The 10's take (estimating) 35% hits, the 30's are cut in half.
That's why I said they know who they are. Licking wounds this weekend methinks.....or praying they get bailed out. In any case a 1K swing should be traded.....any other "reason" is stupidity or greed IMO.
Mike in Long Island writes:
So if we do see a bank holiday that lasts more than a day or two - how long do folks see people in metro areas living without access to cash/credit before bad things happen??
Don't think we'll have one but if it happens you have to remember that some people have no cash. So the fuse is short. By 72 hrs. you will have trouble for sure. Maybe 48 hrs. in some places.
Reading the Sunday paper when I got home, lots of the so-called Christmas retailers are beginning the push early. Toys R Us doing BOGOs, another retailer pushing $9.99 toys, etc.
That is a great chart for people who think this is just an ordinary bear market. 25 year's of poor and failed monetary policy is what we are paying for now.
This has much more pain, albeit through the same extended period of time, to go.
I'm not saying we get back to 1982 however look at the period between 87 and '02...freakin' express elevator up.
Nova,
If you're still reading - the flyers that came in todays paper had one for Dicks Sporting Goods. Back page of the flyer, lower right hand corner they have a coupon for Buy One Get One Free for all ammo - or 50% off in other words... Limit 6 per person.
Breaking News : The markets are now going up the FED has a plan . Just allow buy orders only no sell orders . If you sell the SEC will knock on your door. It's not like they are doing there job on Fraudstreet
Sunday-------The Conjure Report
Monday-------Pestilence
Tuesday------Famine
Wednesday---War
Thursday-----Red Sox Advance to World Series
Friday---------More Bank Failures
Rubenstein, who sits on CFR's board of directors, says the present stock declines and credit crunch "are just the tip of the iceberg." He envisions a broad overhaul of the financial economic motors that had driven the global economy in recent decades and says major coordination between business and government leaders in the United States-and between the United States and other countries-will be necessary to prevent further pain.
As word of the Reserve Funds predicament spread, investors fled. By that weekend, more than $200bn had been pulled from money market funds, by both retail and institutional investors. When other short-term funds, such as prime funds, are included, the amount that was taken out of short-term investments quickly reached $400bn. That shift brought the funds under heavy pressure to sell into an illiquid market, simply to ensure they had enough cash to pay investors withdrawing their money. For banks, heavily reliant on these investors for their funding needs, it created a spiral of liquidity crises. It was the straw that broke the camels back, says Joe Lynagh, a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, an investment company.
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley is in talks with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. about altering the terms of the Japanese bank's pending $9 billion infusion into the Wall Street firm after its stock sank 60 percent last week, said a person familiar with the matter.
Surprise, surprise.
Haven't you heard, the survivors will envy the dead. Just stay put. Or go long. It doesn't really matter.
But seriously, maybe somewhere that has been cut off from human contact for a while, and they still accept dollars. Or will think you are a god because you have a flashlight.
People do not have money to spend, and I rather think that the ones who do aren't going to spend it. I think overspending is now out of fashion, and will be for quite a while. Ordinary people do not think in terms of "improving their balance sheets". They do understand fashion. I have said this before. And will say it again, no doubt.
It seems to me that food in and out of restaurants has increased quite a bit, but nothing else has. So people will cook again & a lot of restaurants will struggle/go out of business.
I was adding to my stock watches in anticipating jumping in after a mkt limit day, but that graph, which if it were not in log form would be pretty much straight up sorta changed my mind. Still a bunch of very low buy orders. . . Satan, get behind me!!
Great link, Kona. The comments make some additional interesting points.
Letting Lehman go down was clearly necessary. All of the Euro-Banksters seem to think they were working with government guarantees, and it appears that they were.
Can anyone name an instance where panic - full fledged, generally felt panic - has been contained in a matter of weeks? In 1987 the 401(k) was a pretty rare phenomenon, so Average Joe didn't have much at stake. Nobody knew about LTCM or the Asia crises.
This one is different. My grandma knows about it. It's not going away until we've been through a lot more pain.
Sumerians were cool. We have 360 degrees and 60 minute clocks because of them. But to judge by their art they were shrimpy and squatty. or, maybe they thought that was beautiful.
It was the straw that broke the camels back, says Joe Lynagh, a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, an investment company.
Kona | 10.12.08 - 10:39 pm | #
Those folks over there at T. Rowe are a joke. I cashed out in Jan 2008 after being lied to and going back and forth with recorded phone calls. I had to keep 2% in their funds. My company has met my match and I now give them 0% until 2009. I was up 14.8% when I cashed out and went to CDs. You get uninformed inexperienced fools on the phone over there!
The oldest proven records of brewing are about 6,000 years old and refer to the Sumerians. Sumeria lay between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers including Southern Mesopotamia and the ancient cities of Babylon and Ur. It is said that the Sumerians discovered the fermentation process by chance. No one knows today exactly how this occurred, but it could be that a piece of bread or grain became wet and a short time later, it began to ferment and a inebriating pulp resulted. A seal around 4,000 years old is a Sumerian "Hymn to Ninkasi", the goddess of brewing. This "hymn" is also a recipe for making beer.
I went to a kroq acoustic christmas concert in 92ish? simon lebon was so off key it was awful. they suck - but their videos seemed ok - back then, that is....
Hahaha..Good one Ross. I dont think youve read mine either. Im not trapped in anything, since Ive been out of the market for quite some time. You might get your bounce tomorrow, but the last few expectations, after up futures, didnt turn out so well. I would say though, that if you are wrong this time, we are all screwed. So Im kind of hoping you are right.
I expect nothing from stockbrokers any more that I expect from real estate brokers. I expect them to execute trades and send me some out of date literature. That's all. Clearly mutual fund managers don't know any more than I do, or they'd beat the mkt.
first?
And a clock London time. Now that is service!
ext?
Betcha the Treasury took it's buy-in marks (i.e. preferred stock purchase) from friday morning.....
Ciao
MS
Long SSO!
I have a feeling there will be one heck of a rally this week...at least I hope as I bought some SSO friday...if not, I will find the tallest building in town.
Higher opens are the kiss of death in a bear market!
This is a short term trade ONLY...I have been short (ETF's) or in cash for so long I forgot whats it like to be bullish...
Is it me or are all of the futures except the US down big? And the US futures are up .. what .. 4% or so?
agree with cynical.....just gives it a reason to fill the gap.
options epxiry. this week and if they can't get the market up the OCC faces one hell of a payout..and then it will need help from Paulson.
They ALWAYS do something right before or during an option expiration week.
Ciao
MS
We are repeating the same mistakes of Hoover and F.D.R. Killing the capitalist system just to save a few banks. There will be no trust before the bad banks go bankrupts.
I must have missed something because some of you seem to be mentioning this "Conjure" individual. Can someone please tell me what this is all about? Who is this fellow/gal? Why is his/her opinion so coveted?
Nikkei closed
LOL...google conjure(bag)
Stock Futures on Bloomberg
And to explain that one must first understand how ours gets that way.
You or I could do it....all you need is enough money and the ability to purchase, say 1000, SPX contracts..and POOF!! Instant perception of a rally.
That's all it takes..
Ciao
MS
National Sports Day in Japan....
Nikkei closed......
Ciao
MS
Hi crispy,
I'm feeling a bit optimistic. With the British general signaling that Afghanistan should be wound down, Bush backing away from North Korea a bit, and everyone on earth engaging this financial crisis, I'm ready to believe they can land this puppy.
Or maybe it's just that I'm full of (Canadian) Thanksgiving turkey.
All the best ...
anya: Conjure is something of an oracle. We've never met him, but his message is delivered by an old-timer here. You'll probably want to check it out in 90 minutes. It WILL be interesting.
We are still waiting for Morgan Stanley too.
What is going on with Morgan, did I miss something?
I'm investing in Whimpy's, since it is a Wednesday for today type of economy.
MTU is blasting them in the 9billion package to the tune of 10% Prefferred, all we are waiting for is the warrant strike price.
SS0 in the morning, SKF around 2-3 pm
conjure is mp's imaginary friend/avatar who has lived for millenia. See? We await his pronouncements with baited breath. Just because something is in your mind doesn't mean it's not real (see J.K. Rowling).
John M - I am a realist...if we go Mad Max in the US, the money I have left won't be worth a dam thing anyway.
This is a short term trade only, I have a feeling I might lose money, however, I think we are due for a 10-15% rally before we go back down again, we will find out...
BTW...By 'old-timer,' I meant long time poster. I wasn't implying mp was a dinosaur. Although he might be, I just don't know.
lawyerliz -
Maybe I should introduce this gang to Igor (on a dull day
Ah, Kristina, as per dead real estate thread, you can go on time if your county has docs on line and get a copy of the Exhibit to your mtg, which restates what your note says. Sorry to bother everyone else.
Exchanges:
South Korea Kospi is up 3.4%
Australia is up 5.5%
New Zealand up about 2%
Japan is closed
Dow is up 280 points
10-15% (SSO, which is double the S&P)
Conjure Bag, mojo bag, gris gris, voodoo bag, ground up dog's balls... etc.
Or, Edgar Bergen's smarter friend, Charlie McCarthy.
CB is quite well respected around here... he's a 1200 year old character, who is quite cynical, and usually correct.
Something for the bears to chew on:
- Why the dollar rally is going to fail - Oct. 11, 2008 | Blogs at Chris Martenson -
crispy&cole writes:
10-15% (SSO, which is double the S&P)
You'll see above that tomorrow. Hold for SPX 1265 in 3-4 months.
I thought he was older that that, Yossarian.
Conjure has repeatedly stated do not trade in this market.
Anonymouse can vouch for that.
Whatever happened to Sebastian?
Someone just built and put up for sale a new house on my block for 899000. Huh? Oh that's right, there's granite counter tops. vaulted entry, spa.
Deal Professor on NYT has a detailed piece on MS. Summary-Mitsu may find a graceful exit using materially adverse event pursuader
"Whatever happened to Sebastian?"
You will see him on the first up day.
Quincy k writes:
"Conjure has repeatedly stated do not trade in this market."
A wise man. He must not be a day trader.
DPK writes:
"Whatever happened to Sebastian?"
As I have often reported, Sebastian is turning tricks for soup. He'll do a couple more things for more than soup, but no one is buying.
Anyone else remember what happened the last couple of times after we went to bed with a nice pop in the futures? Yeh, I bet there's a couple of you who do. Really well.
1998 to 2007 represented the great Overinprovement of America. You overimprove and you lose.
CONJURE COMMUNIQUE
Conjure Bag's discussion paper, in Adobe PDF format, will be released at 11:00 PM Eastern time.
Liz:
I'm remembering 1200 years, but I could be wrong.
seb announced he sold longs and went double short(Sh) at this level.
Conjure scares me. Must be that part about ground up dawg balls.
Thanks for all your replies. I asked the "Conjure" question hoping to gain understanding, but I'll make do with entertainment.
I been buying some calls last week. I expect a decent rebound this week.
play your cards well and don't be too greedy
I think you guys are reading way too much into this "report" that conjure is supposedly delivering.
No ill will meant. Just don't expect a "how to" manual.
BTW did anyone else feel that we had retail capitulation on Friday morning?
I sure did....based on the number of sell on open orders that walked it down 800 points I really think that all those "investors" got cold feet on thursday night and just pushed the sell button. They are going to be mighty pissed if the bankster's can walk this sucker up this week going into options expiry.
Institutes snapped up all those "cheap"-for the time being- shares and didn't sell it off. We only got down to -500 points the rest of the day and then had that "rally" to take it positive by almost 300.
That was either one hell of an exit opportunity or a harbinger of things to come. Don't forget that was the second full day of shorty being let back in....
Ciao
MS
Conjure Bag's discussion paper, in Adobe PDF format, will be released at 11:00 PM Eastern time.
mp | 10.12.08 - 8:45 pm |
Can I get it early? I am sleepy.
Futures are whispering promises in the dark...
Never again, isn't that what you said?
You've been through this before
And you swore this time you'd think with your head
No one, would ever jack you again
And if takin' was gonna get done
You'd decide where and when
Just when you think you got it down
Your charts securely tried and sound
They whispered, Promises To The Marks
Armed and ready, you fought those battles to the heights
But too many opponents made you weary of the fight
Blinded by passion, you foolishly bet just to win
All the warnings went off in your head
Still you had to give in
Just when you think you got it down
Resistance nowhere to be found
They whispered, Promises To The Marks
But promises, you know what they're for
It sounds so convincing, but you heard it before
Cause talk is cheap and you gotta be sure
And so you put up your guard
And you try to be hard
But your chart says try again
You desperately search for a way to conquer the fear
No line of attack has been planned to fight back the tears
Where brave and restless dreams are both won and lost
On the edge is where it seems it's well worth the cost
Just when you think you got it down
Your chart decreases - under ground
They whispered, Promises To The -- Marks
"Can I get it early? I am sleepy."
Conjure says, "No."
"Sorry."
I'll second Nova's motion...
earlier = better
mp - speaking of diabolical things afoot. I hear the deflation fight will involve repricing of assets in different denominations. Reordering the world financial order...no less.
11:00?!?!?!
I'm gonna look like last week's Wall St. bull by 11.
MP,
How do you translate Ancient Sumerian so quickly?
OMG mouse
if you are thinking $SPX 1265 you are going to get your head handed to you.
LOL at CSC
blueballedcannabissmokingdudefromcali
I left my last post too early. What happened into tanta's post?
Nanya, we aren't making fun of you. Go with the flow. Read the posts again regarding conjure and take them literally.
"How do you translate Ancient Sumerian so quickly?"
Dawg, it's a chore. This is the first in a series of Conjure Bag Discussion Papers.
He lays it on the line, but don't expect this first one to answer all questions. It answers some of them.
ullpointer writes:
OMG mouse
if you are thinking $SPX 1265 you are going to get your head handed to you.
Yeah it's been a whole 16 market days since we last saw it - plus that highest volume weekly bar never draws price like a magnet. Let's just see where we stand 3 weeks from today
RE: UK Announcement - It will mark the beginning of Europe decoupling from the US, particularly in leadership, and strategies for recovery.
mouse-
dont take what i said wrong, i wish you luck.
shine on, you crazy diamond.
Rumour has it that Conjure Bag is originally from Iceland. When he was a young troll, he hung out with Njal and would go raiding with him. He got left behind on one of the raids.
Being well read and in need of work, he obtained several positions as tutor to the great and good. He credited with schooling the young John Law in finance, teaching corporate law to the founders of the South Sea Company, and mentored Dr. Havenstein, the president of the Weimar Republic's Reichsbank, on central banking.
It will be interesting to see what Conjure Bag recommends today.
Haman-Hitler-Haider
Must have all been bad men. Too bad Haider died on a road he knew well, alone, without witnesses. A munificent tragedy for for a MossY AddER.
alba writes:
RE: UK Announcement - It will mark the beginning of Europe decoupling from the US,
Decoupling sure. Just like breaking up with your girlfriend after she's given you the clap.
My thoughts on bailout:
I sure did....based on the number of sell on open orders that walked it down 800 points I really think that all those "investors" got cold feet on thursday night and just pushed the sell button. They are going to be mighty pissed if the bankster's can walk this sucker up this week going into options expiry.
Ok, MS, I admit, that exactly describes me doing my final bailout. Now what??
Dawg: Are you calling 'Merika a girlfriend?
1265...no way that is 41% upside... that would be 82% SSO...Don't be greedy anonymouse!!!
LOL @Rob Dawg
So what about the Asians
CNN.com - Page not found
mp - please do not waste your time on reading the comments (including this one).
Maybe go over the paper once more before the release...
sm_landlord writes:
LOL @Rob Dawg
So what about the Asians
No tickeee no shirtee.
So yields on 10 year Treasuries blow out. What does that do to TIPS?
If yields on 10 year Treasuries blow out that is game, set and match.
No tickeee no shirtee.
Dawg: You mean that Asians require actual settlement of short sales. that's un'Merican.
"So yields on 10 year Treasuries blow out. What does that do to TIPS?"
I figure they get crushed, just not quite as badly.
I hate glod. A silly barbaric instrument from a troglodytic era. Don't buy glod, you will be sorry. Those who buy glod are of insufficient I.Q. and don't understand the present environment. Don't fight the int'l CBs, they will hand you your head. Stay in currency or you'll be very, very sorry.
Jesse's Café Américain
"If yields on 10 year Treasuries blow out that is game, set and match."
What would "blowing out" look like, in terms of numbers?
Pay up, or hand over your...
"No one should ever doubt, that which no one is sure about."
No reason. The idea of "conjure" just makes me think of Willy Wonka.
WonkaVision
On a personal note, some kids looked up to superman. Some, John Wayne. Others still, GI Joe. Me? Willy Wonka.
Carry on.
Does mp have his own website for the paper or does he release a link in the threads?
Anecdote: my mother is a retired speech pathologist who does accent modification for foreign origin employees of mid to large size businesses, including multinationals. A major health insurer just canceled orders for six of her clients; spending freeze ordered from the highest levels.
Johnny Lee;
Don't throw me into that Briar Patch!
On a personal note, some kids looked up to superman. Some, John Wayne. Others still, GI Joe. Me? Willy Wonka.
Carry on.
serious moo goo
My childhood hero was Pippi Longstocking.
OK, I confess, Pippi is still a role model for me.
She was even a gold bug!
Haider was going 90 in a 45, passed a car and hit a foot high concrete wall. Massive injuries in VW Phaeton(very safe car). Today he was to celebrate his mother's 90th birthday.
WUBAR & WASS, LLC writes:
No tickeee no shirtee.
Dawg: You mean that Asians require actual settlement of short sales. that's un'Merican.
Exactly. Chinese money, Chinese rules. Nothing 'Merikan gonna be trusted for a decade.
Surely the 10 year yields must return to 8%, which was the -95 level.
Think about how much more solvent the US seemed back then...
Blowing out to me would be a rapid increase from 3.85% to the 8 to 10% range...
so now there will be 1000 people starting conversations in real life with "well, conjure says..."
how awesome is that.
when i say it, the guys at work will think its an IB analyst.
"Chinese money, Chinese rules."
Ever done a contract with the Chinese? It sounds like it.
Haman (Bible) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
What is...
Festival of the Booths (Succoth)
so now there will be 1000 people starting conversations in real life with "well, conjure says..."
Compare the number of folks that start conversations with "Well, Paulson says..." and I think it's a vast improvement.
"when i say it, the guys at work will think its an IB analyst."
And how do you know it isn't?
Wait a sec, no, a risk manager.
@ Comrade Clueless Dufus,
Your guess is as good as mine...but at this point any signifigant ramp up (even say of 2-300 bp)of Treasury yields would further impact our budget and mortgage rates.
Leading to further positive feedback loops in the wrong direction.
Nanya:
To understand is to be entertained.
Smile at the Conjure groupies, smile at Conjure, or just smile.
there is no deflation. there is INFLATION as they are printing $ like crazy. it is deleveraging, not deflation. look at the big picture! deflation does not mean lower prices, but a reduction in money supply. inflation is an increase in money supply.
blowncue, could you tell me the fist letter of that insurer?
I have long been of the theory that Conjure Bag - the one and original trans-millenial dude - is real, and that MP is a figment of Conjure's imagination useful for communicating with us.
And, while MP is not a bad guy, I hold Conjure in awe.
If I had always listened to Conjure and did what he said, then I would be better off than I am today. Maybe locked up in a padded room, too, but I'd have more cash.
This isn't a blog for mental health, anyway.
Love this WSJ headline: Treasury Hones Next Rescue Tool
Let's hope they are not just honing their cones...
There is inflation in the things you need and deflation in the things you cannot afford.
Will I at least get some credit for this?
CSC- That's the spirit! Truly, you and Elvis keep me in stitches. When they shut down the internets, it will sadden me.
I bought 5 avocados for $1 today. If that's what deflation will be like, I say BRING IT!
anya-
it is my belief that conjure is a shemale that is a by-product of thorazine and lsd.
W. writes:
Will I at least get some credit for this?
W, I think you can be sure that your work on this earth will never be forgotten.
If we get a new global currency at the end of all this, I vote for galleons, sickles and knuts.
some here may not recall that Roubini was calling for dollar collapse since 04. That's when I started getting tight.
"Ok, MS, I admit, that exactly describes me doing my final bailout. Now what??"
if I knew that than I wouldn't be on a computer on sunday evening.
I'm sure you were not alone as most of the action on Friday morning's open was exactly that.....sell on market open.
IMO it's just a short term thing....every single options expiry of the last year has had major influence from the FED/Treasury and now the world's govt's and banks. It's getting a bit desperate as I can't imagine there is much left in that "toolbox" that hanky-poo speaks of so fondly.
If I had to guess we go up until Tuesday..shaking out weak put holders (although why they would hold anything into it's expiration week is pretty amateur IMO) so that the trade is not so imbalanced come the remainder of the week.
And no I'm not betting money on it either.....peeled the remainder of my Oct puts off on friday morning. THe is the deepest I've ever gone into an expiration.
Ciao
MS
RE: International Currency Suggestions
I vote for doubloons and all future financial transactions to be negotiated in pirate talk. Arrrrg.
serious moo goo: What's kinf of sad is that I wasn't joking at all about Pippi. I worshipped her and loved the panty shots when she went up the ladder at Villa Villekulla.
I watched a few episodes again a month or so ago and my wife said, "My God, you act like that child character at age 36." I smiled inside.
Of course, I only dig the Astrid Lindgren versions.
@ sm_landlord
that was inspiring, really
thanks
could almost set it to music
but, I think poetry is wasted on the filthylucre crowd,
they'd rather hunt for truffles in the folds of the death shroud
CRVIX at 375 on a Sunday evening? Go watch TV or something.
Has conjure ever released a report before and if so, can anybody tell me if it is something worth staying up another 2 hours for?
RE: International Currency Suggestions
Consider as a replacement for the Dollar as an international currency, an enriched uranium-backed currency.
"Cash" would be a claim on the revenues from generating electricity.
Fractional reserve lending would be banned, since money-from-nowhere would outstrip the actual atoms backing it. The fraudsters would try to back trash with uranium not yet enriched, or not yet mined -- the best response would be the Guillotine for those that tried (and the Wheel for any who succeeded).
As the nuclear powers went broke (US, Pakistan, ...) went broke, they would feed their people by gradually selling off their arsenals.
The one drawback I see is the relatively large ratio of mining/usage to present stockpiles After two decades of intense mining, which would be inflationary, I think that problem would diminish. Given the huge inertia of mining and power generation, you would be able to predict the money supply years in advance.
Food for thought ...
Yeah, pomegranate juice was $2.99 at the Westside Market today and I kind of stopped to think about the upside of this whole deflation debacle. All kinds of luxury items are gonna be marked down something furious come December.
Socialism thy name is prosperity! We are all going to be rich now!
If by Wonka you mean Gene Wilder in the original Mel Stuart production, then good god Yes.
there is no deflation. there is INFLATION as they are printing $ like crazy. it is deleveraging, not deflation. look at the big picture! deflation does not mean lower prices, but a reduction in money supply. inflation is an increase in money supply.
Yankee
I believe you are right...
karelian | 10.12.08 - 9:23 pm |
Have you been to Estonia lately?
I do not know why some people have this "dedication" for telling others what to do(?) and in dogmatic words (funny). It is called preaching I think.
wisdom = knowing yourself = what is right for YOU (individually)
Even what is correct for even 99% of people... is not for 100%
as they say in Europe "the exception confirms the rule"
people love to make rules, it is "comforting", it simplifies all they feel as confusion.
Mostly it shows a total lack of training in sciencific methodology. Science is not knowledge, it is about methods, that enable you to figure out what you do not know that you should know. That applies to everything.
But of course it is always easier for most to pile behind an image.
When you sense hysteria, and that a turn is around the corner, like last week, it is hard not to hope to "save" a few from dumping at the (temporary) lows... but that is as far as reason should go , perhaps.
Dawg-
Sorry only the same old Paulson reruns on tv. More interesting here.
When I get up tomorrow morning there are 3 things I need. Gasoline, electricity and water.
There are ten thousand things I do not need. The New York Times, McDonalds, Starbucks, Nordstroms, Home Depot, etc, etc.
I'm going to buy utitlies who have shale and nuclear assets. Oil companies who have domestic reserves. These are ASSETS.
The last time I was in Estonia was in 1988 as a kid.... Soviet army officers kept hogging the Formula video game at the hotel lobby. The only one in Estonia, probably. Would love to return and see the contrast. The Old Town is the best preserved Medieval town center in the world... something you don't appreciate as a child.
Pretty soon you can pick up an apartment dating back to 1470 for 200 K, I bet.
Anonymous@9:22
YouTube - Pat Benatar - Promises In The Dark
--
"I bought 5 avocados for $1 today. If that's what deflation will be like, I say BRING IT!"
Currently Smoking Cannabis,
There IS inflation in stupidity and deflation in smarts! Stupid people somehow end up paying more. Sometimes out of fear! I better buy this Scam, or this house, before it goes up another 20%.
This war is never going to end, AllenM.
Jas
Is There still space for Conjure-Fest 2008?
Karelian, it has begun. Just now a 2006 Miata was auctioned on Ebay for 13600. That's almost 2G below KBB.
Plenty of 08 cars being shifted at losses of 15-20G. These couldn't be happy stories.
If i were conjure , i'd be recommending things that will be a part of this workd regardless of who owes what to whom.
steel, electricty and a book keeper
CLF, GE, and BAC
By tight, you mean amazingly drunk, right?
"they are printing $ like crazy"
Not so fast. They are also printing Treasury bills, bonds, and notes like crazy. Unless monetized, this is deflationary.
Plus, fractional reserve lending is sliding backwards. Deflationary.
Plus, scared people are slowing the velocity of money. Short-term deflationary equivalent.
Monetization may have recently started, however. We will see. I certainly expect a lot.
Sad hell! If people stuck with what fascinated them as a child and let that fascination drive their intellectual curiosity their entire lives, the world would be a much less cynical place, IMHO.
Prolly a lot more inventive and accepting as well.
My apartment building has notes in the elevator promising 250 bucks for anyone who finds a new tenant... and first month for free.
karelian | 10.12.08 - 9:27 pm
Thanks, Maybe going to do research in the summer. Estonia is a bit unknown. Except maybe to a Finn.
Sorry, 9:30 was to CSC.
@ anonanon: naturally.
Conjure's report may very well include references to bird entrails, dog balls, Zulu canes, and a naked Lisa Bonet. Be prepared.
csc, those were stolen.
MS
you use the term amateur a bit readily: it what the call of an amateur not to sell the longs on Friday close is what you said Friday, right?
(you may still be right, it is not the open yet
--
Cars...
My son talked to someone who works for Accura dealership in SF Valley at a party over the weekend. Traffic down 2/3rd in the last two weeks.
Due to the Scam Market?
Jas
Black market avocados are a sign of things to come.
tranches of lucifer writes:
Conjure's report may very well include references to bird entrails, dog balls, Zulu canes, and a naked Lisa Bonet. Be prepared.
I'll be disappointed if Conjure doesn't have words about at least two of things.
When I get up tomorrow morning there are 3 things I need. Gasoline, electricity and water.
Gasoline prices are crashing big time here in West Appalachia. October 3rd AM price=> $3.29/gallon... tonight $2.46/gallon. It's dropping every 12 hours. Looks like a whole lotta price deflation going on.
Estonia was arguably the most capitalist country in the world until this year... lowest corporate taxes, etc. They went for this Reagan experiment. Tallinn real estate exploded into a huge orgy of price hikes... we're talking 2 million dollar town houses. They got whole blocks of perfectly preserved, 600 years old buildings with original oak floors and stuff. Let's see how they navigate this whole mess - the real estate is collapsing right now.
How many of you have fielded panic calls from friends/relatives/total strangers about their 401k's?
My sense is that the buy-and-hold crowd is near capitulation. Last week really changed their psychology.
National debt has grown over $245 Billion in the last 8 days. This does not include all the money that will need to be raised for the $700 Billion Paulson freak show.
At this rate, we will add over 7 Trillion to the debt in the next year. Wheeee!
I walked through the local BestBuy today to do my surveying. Hardly a soul was looking at the wall of flat screens and most of the people there were single retirees. The rest seem to have just come from the pet store like me.
Also my local hardware store tells me business is down.
This is north of NYC
he last time I was in Estonia was in 1988 as a kid....
my brother went there 4 years ago and liked it alot
WSJ: Treasury Hones Next Rescue Tool
Oh, goodness. Who is it this time?
w writes:
Black market avocados are a sign of things to come.
Stolen or not, if I can barter 5 avocados for a single tampon, I'll be rollin FRNs with kite string and livin' large.
Currently Smoking Cannabis: I used to watch Pippi when I was a kid, of course she was new back then. Even better now on YouTube...you know...with the pause button...and all......
Is conjure invoking "Angel Heart" as a parable for our plight?
Cause the denouement ain't purdy. Though it's my favorite occult Icelandic noir potboiler.
karelian | 10.12.08 - 9:34 pm |
I wanted to stop in Kalingrad with the family. They vetoed it. Even after I showed them the website where you can ride in actual functioning Soviet tanks and blow stuff up. My wife was a bit put off by the armed escort with connections to the local Polizei.
Canadian watching with popcorn: I have the DVD set! That chick knew how to be free.
--
"you use the term amateur a bit readily"
Yeah, that is much more derogatory term than born-and-bred dopes, something that most people can't help. Breeding dopes (to have faith in and support the system, e.g., democracy) has been very common thru history.
Jas
CSC--Stolen or not, if I can barter 5 avocados for a single tampon, I'll be rollin FRNs with kite string and livin' large.
I have found someone to follow. Brilliant and twisted.
Please stop holding back from now on.
@There is inflation in the things you need and deflation in the things you cannot afford.
I think this paradox is what we'll be seeing more of as things, uh, "progress." Roubini's saying deflation is the major concern, but what if it's just short term? If I could come to peace with either concept, I'd sleep better at night.
No Jas! Don't go there!
o capitulation at all for the 401k j6p crowd
happened too fast and too much inertia
besides capitulation is made up concept...
CSC: Can you rip them and do a Torrent?
I think there is going to be deflation even in the stuff you need...
@CSC--Stolen or not, if I can barter 5 avocados for a single tampon, I'll be rollin FRNs with kite string and livin' large.
Just hope your lady never resorts to Glad Rags. Trust me, man.
Pippi?
Pippi Longstocking?
Gold is up slightly in Asian markets to $860.00.
I can't decide if I want to short the long bond, eat magic shrooms, or donate money to a televangelist...
This blog is having strange effects on me.
/dialing psychiatrist:)
I bought 5 avocados for $1 today. If that's what deflation will be like, I say BRING IT!
Currently Smoking Cannabis
I got organic gala apples for less than a dollar a pound. Yay!
Micro-economic report across the tracks. Things are getting a little more violent in the poorer side of town. We had two multiple knife wounds and a gunshot wound admitted last night. One of the gangbangers wanted to provide "protection" by stationing a "guard", armed no less, outside the patient's door. That was a fun negotiation.
eat the shrooms
CSC: Can you rip them and do a Torrent?
Canadian watching with popcorn
I have no clue how to do the torrent thing. When I left the IT world, I became a techtard. I have a laptop and an iPhone, but that's it. We don't even have a home phone or TV.
LOL Estonia's most famous living person is a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carmen_Kass>supermodel w/ measurements of 86-61-86
Anyone been to Belarus? I hear it's the most awfulest country in the whole wide world
"Pippi Longstocking?"
She will always be Pippi Långstrump to me. We have the Swedish version.
"Min mamma är en ängel och min pappa är en negerkung, det är minsann inte alla barn, som har så fina föräldrar."
Pippi was a metaphor of leftwing radicalism and her two milquetoast friends a reflection of Swedish bourgeoisie pining for change.
Bless Astrid Lindgren... I read "My brother the lionheart" when I was seven and cried for an hour after it ended with a double suicide of poor, terminally ill brothers doomed by bad healthcare policies.
The honest "working class" immigrant part of town I live next to has gone from honest and hardworking to incredibly violent and crime-ridden over the last 3 months. Home invasion robberies are up like crazy, people standing around in the streets in the middle of the weekday, breaking into cars in broad daylight oblivious to witnesses. It's like some kind of fever or sickness has gone through the people who live there, as if they know that their time is short.
Banking giants to be nationalised -
Business News, Business - The Independent
Two UK banking giants to be nationalised
"Two of Britain's biggest high street banks will in effect be nationalised today in a dramatic move by the Government that follows a day of international negotiations aimed at co-ordinating a pan-European approach to the global financial crisis. The development, where the state will take a majority shareholding in Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and a large share of Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), emerged as European leaders appeared ready to follow the UK-led strategy of bailing out ailing banks by using public funds to take large stakes in them."
To elaborate on my previous post; you know the difference between an area where the criminals try to steal and run, or break into or take things when people aren't looking, and an area where people will feel comfortable walking up to a car and just smashing the window and removing the stereo in broad daylight, and just staring at you if you watch them? That change from one to the other has been taking place before my very eyes, and I'm not living in the ghetto; this is Silicon Frickin Valley.
Ordnance Survey Clip from 1953
YouTube - Ordnance Survey Clip from 1953
karelian writes:
Pippi was a metaphor of leftwing radicalism and her two milquetoast friends a reflection of Swedish bourgeoisie pining for change.
You just blew the back of my skull off. Wow.
I am like a caricature of a radical. I don't know what to think.
"Democracy" is not the problem. Propaganda and excessive wealth concentration (which fuels the propaganda) is the problem. These problems can, and usually do, appear in non-democracies as well.
The two-party system (i.e. the extreme difficulty of forming viable third parties) is another problem. There is no true labor party in the US. Workers have almost no voice... the Dems offer only the most tepid support for labor interests.
Penrod and Hoopajoop | 10.12.08 - 9:49 pm |
Next up is the home invasion thing. Time to move
PnH-there have been forced entries here by pros trying to get cash from retirees that withdrew funds b/c they remember the depression
"I'm not living in the ghetto; this is Silicon Frickin Valley."
And not East San Jose?
Penrod and Hoopajoop, I work at the largest trauma level 1 hospital in my area. They always place those in areas where we can better serve our most frequent "clients". We have been told now that we have to be escorted out to our cars by security guard, no option anymore. Yeah, it's going to be fun.
@The two-party system (i.e. the extreme difficulty of forming viable third parties) is another problem.
Why John Adams, whose namesake in the White Mountains is a f*cking BASTARD to climb, hated the two-party system.
"We have been told now that we have to be escorted out to our cars by security guard, no option anymore."
This was not unusual in Hollywood during the early 1980s. An I'm not talking about hospitals, I'm talking about some studios.
sm_landlord:
No, not San Jose; just outside of Palo Alto, where it's supposed to be solidly yuppified. I wouldn't consider this change in attitude on the street to be remarkable if this were San Jose or East Palo Alto. Palo Alto proper has seen a sudden upswing in armed robberies on the street in the last month as well.
"He lays it on the line, but don't expect this first one to answer all questions. It answers some of them"
Bait and freaking switch! I bought diapers and pacifiers...
Did you get to ascend his son as well?
Bagging Jefferson, Adams, and Madison on the same day was a great hike.
Probably a dumb question, but is anyone expecting a pronouncement from Paulson before the market opens here in the States?
get some big dogs and go to Lefty's for a little something and relax. if someone breaks in, use the guns you recently purchased...
don't worry, be happy!
China's CIC May Have $5.4 Billion Frozen in Money-Market Fund
By Miles Weiss and Belinda Cao
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- China Investment Corp., the sovereign wealth fund that bought stakes in Morgan Stanley and Blackstone Group LP before their stocks plunged, may have as much as $5.4 billion frozen in a U.S. money-market account.
China's CIC May Have $5.4 Billion Frozen in Money-Market Fund - Bloomberg.com
That will make for interesting phone conversations.
NC-
The amateur reference of Friday was for one poster who has made his continued bottom calls here a very large source of entertainment.
He knows who he/she is.
Anyone that bought into the swoon of the morning session and didn't sell it out when it got pushed up towards the close is an amateur in my book-that was a 1k swing in the space of ONE (1) session-ever seen that before??? Neither have they.
Booked profit is better than any excuse you can come up with for not taking the free money...because that's EXACTLY what that was.
Hold and hope is not a way to consistently make money.
Ciao
MS
Yo N, did the presi-traverse this summer. Limmers rule!
Now all you need is a serious crack revival. Here heroin has mellowed a lot of people.
Penrod and Hoopajoop;
Palo Alto? Yikes!
next thing you know, there will be land shark fights on Sand Hill Road...
Oh, wait...
Do I read this right?
EU and UK take care of their big banks, money (or part of it) is going to move there. Thus USD goes down, oil up and we start worrying about inflation.
"Democrats call for massive econ stimulus plan"
Democrats call for massive econ stimulus plan
| Reuters
Democrats win the election (bad economic situation), they push for the plan. I think the plan will have $1000 cash back to people (helicopter Ben) and lots of spending (and helping hands) for state gov, which are in trouble.
Some people will save money or pay back debt but there will be spending increase, so this will add to inflation a bit. The plan will be financed by issuing more debt since we are not going to increase taxes (Obama's 250k+ tax increase is not bringing in money, and is helping consumption). More debt means the value of the dollar goes down again, thus we have inflation. Again.
Since the markets are so volatile, it is enough to see a one time big decline in USD dollar (say 5% in one day) which will scare people into staying away from USD. This is the shock that raises the inflation expectations.
No matter how I try to think about this I end up with increases in price for ordinary items (non durable goods); for everything else (durable goods, house, etc) I expect the price level to go down. What am I missing?
Penrod and Hoopajoop, whereabouts in PA is this happening? Do you have any links?
Penrod and Hoopajoop-
I try to tell people to watch their immediate surrondings. I did business on the streets of LA during the 1990's recession. At times, it became violent. Bizzare unexpainable sh_t happened. This period is going to be far worse. If U-6 reaches 20+ percent in some urban areas, which many are predicting, many people are just not going to give a fu_k.
Especially those that lived "high on the hog" for the last four years that should have never been given the opportunity to do so. The withdrawal symptoms and feelings of futility can be overpowering for those that are now in need whose previous existence was supported by greed.
Whereismyretirement: Is this precautionary or has there already been an escalation of incidents?
nova writes:
Now all you need is a serious crack revival. Here heroin has mellowed a lot of people.
I believe this is the perfect time to legalize pot. Tax the crap out of it, make some money, and mellow out the masses for the next few years.
(Will CSC agree, or is being tax free too enjoyable? hahaha)
Penrod and Hoopajoop;
Then there is the forced entry. Use a sledgehammer to come in through the wall.
Anyone been to Belarus? I hear it's the most awfulest country in the whole wide world
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 10.12.08 - 9:45 pm | #
I have a lot of family back in Belarus. When my family goes back there to visit all they tell me is that they cannot wait to get back to the USA. There is no work outside the cities so there are no young people in the villages.
Yes, it is very bad over there....
Home values are just beginning to crack in Palo Alto and on the Penninsula, down to Los Gatos. It was an island of cash and homes bought with cash that kept rising in value, until last week.
From the posts Im reading here it seems some true Bears took a nice gamble on a nice pop on Mon & Tues. I did. I sure wouldnt be greedy though. My Grandfather always said "dont cry over a profit". Good luck to all!
NC-
IF you don't like what I have to say and call it preaching..you are free to ignore anything that I post in the future..it's your right.
Try it sometime and you won't come off as preaching too and looking like a douche'.
Ciao
MS
Isn't now the conjure hour?
Re Belarus - most people tend to be the nicest type you can find around.
Large cities are doing OK, but villages are in trouble, that's true
Jeebus, all these homesteading, on the street parking, genterfication loving, coffee at cafe crowd are really going to be hating life.
Especially when services get cut because of tax declines.
Fed approves Wells Fargo-Wachovia deal.
What economic data are coming out this week?
I don't have any directly about the armed robbery spree in palo alto that happened a month ago, but here's a news article that mentions them.
Palo Alto robbery appears related to others in California Avenue area - San Jose Mercury News
I am extremely aware of the potential for home invasion robberies, and am in fact anticipating them as a natural progression of what I see every day on the street.
GH - The Conjure hour has been moved to 11 PM EDT.
I wonder if this is what the Conjure clock has been pointing to all along...
man-moth, I've only hiked Washington, and a few smaller (non-Presidential) peaks. I don't get back to NH often enough. Love the White Mountains.
Miranda: When California got its medical marijuana community humming, there was a battle over dispensaries paying taxes. Many did not, and their reasons were, in my opinion, quite stupid.
I was involved with the community and argued loudly that our chance to ever be taken seriously again would evaporate if we did not hold up our end of the deal. I think we should pay taxes, follow the rules, and show the public that we're not just rebels who want to be rebels. For me it is an issue of being able to make my own decisions regarding my body.
Many in the marijuana community are insincere when they speak about why it should be legal. As soon as they are given the chance to be legit, their position changes and they want more.
I support taxing the hell out of it. I support anything that would allow the public to see the truth about cannabis. But I fear many stoners will do their best to keep it exciting and 'counterculture.' This is my biggest break with my peers.
Miranda writes:
Fed approves Wells Fargo-Wachovia deal.
Miranda | 10.12.08 - 10:06 pm | #
When did they legalize zombie weddings?
UB, Good Evening,
What assignment do I have tonight?
Econ data calendar is available at Bloomberg.com:
Economic Calendar
Trotsky: my take on the situation from family, friends, colleagues and acquaintances is that no, the spending is o.v.e.r. For several years, while people repair their household balance sheets.
People seem to be feeling pretty burned about this whole situation. Something about diligently adding to their retirement accounts, then watching those account be destroyed within a matter of days, while the MSM bandies around the big "D" word.
So, they provide all the "credit" they want, but if people aren't interested in borrowing, game over.
PnH-I don't doubt you, but that article says it's one guy.
wed : PPI, ret sales, beige book, inventories
thurs : CPI, init claims,ind prod, capacity utilization, Philly Fed
fri : permits, starts, UMich confidence
Oh here we are, article directly on point. 15 armed robberies in palo alto in the last three months.
Palo Alto police step up patrols in wake of robbery spree - San Jose Mercury News
"Palo Alto police are increasing neighborhood patrols in response to a jump in the number of robberies in the city over the past three months, a police spokesman said today.
Since the end of June there have been 15 strong-arm and armed robberies in Palo Alto, Agent Dan Ryan said. Four have occurred in just in the last week
The robberies are not occurring in one particular area, but throughout the entire city, Ryan said. "
The RV World of 1937
YouTube - The RV World of 1937
nova writes:
Especially when services get cut because of tax declines.
You mean government actually delivers services? I'm intrigued. Tell me more.
"Then there is the forced entry. Use a sledgehammer to come in through the wall."
That's why Remington 870's and 00 were invented.
Conjure's countdown clock hit 12:00 some time ago.
Seems he's been much more busy since then.
PS Maybe conjure should have a tip jar. (Note: hard to send ground up dog balls via paypal).
"I work at the largest trauma level 1 hospital in my area"
You're lucky. Our area is one of the biggest areas of all and I don't think we have any trauma centers within 50 miles. Something about money...
Ever drive a car on a road?
Tranches,
You've got good taste in music and mountains!
I found this link for tracking crime in your area. Entered PA and 7 days. Did seem elevated, but not horrific to me (I grew up there, the 60's through the 80's).
Home - San Jose Mercury News
CSC, there has been an increase in car prowls in the employee garage, a few purse snatchings in the visitor garage and an increase per the cops of "activity" in the area. The hospital is located in the central part of the city. Lots of "loitering" going on and a slight increase (so far) in the ED treating GSWs and knifings. During this time of year as it gets colder and wetter, even when the economy was booming, there is an increase in "business" being transacted in the garages. I have a hunch things could get really ugly.
The governor here (WA) is going to have a shortfall in her budget. She has already enacted a 1% across the board cut in all government agencies. When the social services safety net dries up, the central part of the city erupts.
Kona: I think we should just spectate tonight. If you see anything that needs immediate action though let me know.
A friend offer us a cabin in the mountains but I would have to load up on shotguns and TP to feel safe.
Also, if anyone has tried to explain this financial nightmare to anyone Nouriel Roubini has a nice 1:06 min audio available on mp3 on his site from 10-02-08 that explains it all very well. I know most of us have been following it here on CR & NRs RGE but trying to explain it to some is difficult for me. Its worth sending them the audio of this if they want to get an understanding for it.
hey...there's one and only d here.
who's taking my spot.
ps..the amateur call was for PCA
According to Bloomberg: "The 2009 budget deficit could be close to $2 trillion, or 12.5 percent of gross domestic product, more than twice the record of 6 percent set in 1983, according to David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley's chief economist. Two weeks ago, budget analysts said the measures might push deficit to as much as $1.5 trillion."
Shanghai just went red 1.3% ..
Whereismyretirement my experience is that at the beginning its all a shell game in gov't budget cuts e.g. "we won't fill these vacant positions we have." I haven't seen them actually cut anything in over a decade.
If my boomer dad owns mostly bond funds (let's assume its just a typical Vanguard, Fidelity type deal) and 10 year Treasury interest rates sky-rocket to the 8-10% range ... what's the impact? I assume this means the bond fund gets scorched. Sorry in advance, I know this is a dummy question. I was good on the verbal SAT, not the math section.
Juvenile Crime in the 1930s
YouTube - Juvenile Crime in the 1930s
So if we do see a bank holiday that lasts more than a day or two - how long do folks see people in metro areas living without access to cash/credit before bad things happen??
In other words does a week long freeze of the banking system see widespread unrest? Less time or more??
I think anything more than 72 hrs is probably the tipping point. Thoughts?
Re: If you see anything
Extrasensory perception (ESP) is the apparent ability to acquire information by paranormal means independent of any known physical senses or deduction from previous experience.
Question: if things got really bad and you decided to "head for the hills", in this country or another, where would you go?
OT: I was in one of the big four aussie banks today (monday) and as an aside asked the branch manager if anyone was asking for their cash. He said that yeah they had a lot of people come in last week with serious faces, asking to speak to the manager and wanting to withdraw all their money as cash ..
I have to guess that trend was communicated to the Rudd government last week, and forced their hand on the deposit guarantee.
MrM, thanks for pointing me in the right direction!
Interesting article about Hong Kong at Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXWDvIxvYc.0&refer=home
HKMA's Yam Says Hong Kong Banking System Is `Sound'
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong Monetary Authority Chief Executive Joseph Yam said the city's banking system is sound and healthy'' and lenders in the territory haveample'' liquidity, reiterating earlier remarks.
The HKMA has emergency packages that we can use in times of emergencies and depending on circumstances,'' Yam told reporters in Hong Kong today.If we rush into using them then people may get the wrong perception about the market.''
Yam's remarks come a day after a government official said Hong Kong may use all of its foreign reserves to stabilize its financial markets after the global credit crisis caused the benchmark Hang Seng Index to plunge 47 percent this year.
Hong Kong needs to stabilize its financial market by any means or see problems in all industries,'' Billy Mak, a finance professor at Hong Kong Baptist University, said yesterday.It's a matter of faith. Hong Kong's financial system hasn't had serious problems so far.''
Hong Kong holds HK$1.4 trillion ($180 billion) of foreign currency reserves, Hong Kong Commercial Broadcasting cited Chief Secretary Henry Tang as saying. Foreign reserves should be used to support the local currency's peg to the dollar so as to avoid bank runs, Mak said.
We'll use all the ammunition if we have to,'' Julia Leung, under secretary for financial services, said in an interview with Hong Kong Commercial Broadcasting. </b>Hong Kong should have faith. Smaller companies are already being hit by the lack of capital in the market.''
....
Can a noob suggest some thread music?
Caring Is Creepy - The Shins
YouTube - The Shins - Caring is Creepy
I think I'll go home and mull this over
Before I cram it down my throat
At long last it's crashed, the colossal mass
Has broken up into bits in my moat.
Lift the mattress off the floor
Walk the cramps off
Go meander in the cold
Hail to your dark skin
Hiding the fact you're dead again
Underneath the power lines seeking shade
Far above our heads are the icy heights that contain all reason
It's a luscious mix of words and tricks
That let us bet when you know we should fold.
On rocks I dreamt of where we'd stepped.
And the whole mess of roads we're now on.
Hold your glass up, hold it in
Never betray the way you've always known it is.
One day I'll be wondering how
I got so old just wondering how
I never got cold wearing nothing in the snow.
This is way beyond my remote concern
of being condescending.
All these squawking birds won't quit.
Building nothing, laying bricks.
Corey;
"You mean government actually delivers services? I'm intrigued. Tell me more."
No services for you...
Who commented on Sumerian translation way back there. CSC?
My little one called me in to help with a homework question a few minutes ago. Question was: How did Sumerians contribute to Government, Arts, Etc.
Antennae are sizzling dude.
Are we going to see a RUN ON THE DOLLAr ?
JAPAN has said they will draw from reserves..
HK now
India also
Anyone know the composition of Hong Kong's reserves? How much are they invested in 10-year treasuries?
"10 year Treasury interest rates sky-rocket to the 8-10% range ... what's the impact?"
Your verbal skills serve you well. Scorched is the right word. The bonds are probably mixed in duration. The short ones are little affected. The 10's take (estimating) 35% hits, the 30's are cut in half.
Mike in LI,
No need to worry about any of that when you have this to soothe you:
YouTube -
gracias, Plantagenet.
"hey...there's one and only d here.
who's taking my spot.
ps..the amateur call was for PCA"
That's why I said they know who they are. Licking wounds this weekend methinks.....or praying they get bailed out. In any case a 1K swing should be traded.....any other "reason" is stupidity or greed IMO.
Ciao
MS
and 10 year Treasury interest rates sky-rocket to the 8-10% range .
If yields went from 5% on a 5% coupon 10yr bond, to 9% yield, price would go from 100 to 74, which is a drop of 25% in mark to market value.
Crazy chart:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SPKbc9n6TxI/AAAAAAAAF-Y/xbxrr4m7u_I/s1600-h/InfDji200_0810.png
Oh man, retail sales report on Wed could be a killer if the economy really fell off the cliff in Sept.
Mike in Long Island writes:
So if we do see a bank holiday that lasts more than a day or two - how long do folks see people in metro areas living without access to cash/credit before bad things happen??
Don't think we'll have one but if it happens you have to remember that some people have no cash. So the fuse is short. By 72 hrs. you will have trouble for sure. Maybe 48 hrs. in some places.
Anonymous writes:
"Crazy chart"
Wow - look at the similarity to the 1906 top(s).
Beylarus
Come and See - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Oh, my, that's a log scale.
Reading the Sunday paper when I got home, lots of the so-called Christmas retailers are beginning the push early. Toys R Us doing BOGOs, another retailer pushing $9.99 toys, etc.
anon @10:23
That is a great chart for people who think this is just an ordinary bear market. 25 year's of poor and failed monetary policy is what we are paying for now.
This has much more pain, albeit through the same extended period of time, to go.
I'm not saying we get back to 1982 however look at the period between 87 and '02...freakin' express elevator up.
Wait...
Ciao
MS
Ciao
MS
Man-moth,
Thank good my wireless connection decided to be slow - I caught the title before the video loaded...
This is more my speed
A peace offering to Man-Moth
Let's call it quits otherwise I'll break out the Flock of Seagulls and Duran Dura
Duran Duran
Noooooooooo....
Women Working in the Big City in the 1930s
YouTube - Women Working in the Big City in the 1930s
Nova,
If you're still reading - the flyers that came in todays paper had one for Dicks Sporting Goods. Back page of the flyer, lower right hand corner they have a coupon for Buy One Get One Free for all ammo - or 50% off in other words... Limit 6 per person.
Btw, is conjure's bag large enough to hold a pony? (looking around hopefully)
Mike writes:
Oh man, retail sales report on Wed could be a killer if the economy really fell off the cliff in Sept.
Mike | 10.12.08 - 10:23 pm | #
Mike, no worries it's all priced in!
Breaking News : The markets are now going up the FED has a plan . Just allow buy orders only no sell orders . If you sell the SEC will knock on your door. It's not like they are doing there job on Fraudstreet
What economic data are coming out this week?
Sunday-------The Conjure Report
Monday-------Pestilence
Tuesday------Famine
Wednesday---War
Thursday-----Red Sox Advance to World Series
Friday---------More Bank Failures
In true Wall street fashion any "bad" reports will come off as being not as bad as they "could" have been.
Seen that movie all last year.
Ciao
MS
Grasping 'Radical' Economic Change
Grasping 'Radical' Economic Change - Council on Foreign Relations
Rubenstein, who sits on CFR's board of directors, says the present stock declines and credit crunch "are just the tip of the iceberg." He envisions a broad overhaul of the financial economic motors that had driven the global economy in recent decades and says major coordination between business and government leaders in the United States-and between the United States and other countries-will be necessary to prevent further pain.
It's over. Get long or be wrong for the next 3 to 5 years.
The depression has been postponed til 2012 or so. We are certainly in dire straights but we need a bit of hyper-stagflation for desert.
Ah, fixing GM, Ford and Chrysler into one company will be tricky. Pensions and Natl. Health are killers...
Good luck to all.
On a brighter note, my winter wheat is up nicely. Monsanto is the new Norman Borloug.
Uncle Billy,
Do you have a sixth-grader? Mine is studying the same thing. We finished that section last week
On the precipice
Setser
As word of the Reserve Funds predicament spread, investors fled. By that weekend, more than $200bn had been pulled from money market funds, by both retail and institutional investors. When other short-term funds, such as prime funds, are included, the amount that was taken out of short-term investments quickly reached $400bn. That shift brought the funds under heavy pressure to sell into an illiquid market, simply to ensure they had enough cash to pay investors withdrawing their money. For banks, heavily reliant on these investors for their funding needs, it created a spiral of liquidity crises. It was the straw that broke the camels back, says Joe Lynagh, a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, an investment company.
Mike in LI,
A most excellent and timely peace offering. We are both Yakuza of craptacular 80s tunes and must stop before we lose fingers.
MS writes:
"In true Wall street fashion any "bad" reports will come off as being not as bad as they "could" have been."
That can work both ways. When the mood is dark, "bad" reports can be taken as more truly bad news, even if it already priced in.
Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley is in talks with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. about altering the terms of the Japanese bank's pending $9 billion infusion into the Wall Street firm after its stock sank 60 percent last week, said a person familiar with the matter.
Surprise, surprise.
Morgan Stanley Climbs in Germany on Mitsubishi UFJ Discussions - Bloomberg.com
Builder Bob:
Haven't you heard, the survivors will envy the dead. Just stay put. Or go long. It doesn't really matter.
But seriously, maybe somewhere that has been cut off from human contact for a while, and they still accept dollars. Or will think you are a god because you have a flashlight.
Asia will go into RED in t-90 minutes
the spin on cnbc bloomberg is only valid for 2 hours of early trading
Hey Ross, how many times do you plan to be wrong? Or is this your broken clock moment?
"10 year Treasury interest rates sky-rocket to the 8-10% range ... what's the impact?"
Another way to look at it: if the fund's duration is say, 7, like Vanguard's TIPS fund VIPSX, each 1% rise in rates leads to a 7% loss...
Vanguard's long term Treasury fund VUSTX duration is an average of 10.7
I think mp is watching stuff like this, and forgot The State Of The Bag:
YouTube -
People do not have money to spend, and I rather think that the ones who do aren't going to spend it. I think overspending is now out of fashion, and will be for quite a while. Ordinary people do not think in terms of "improving their balance sheets". They do understand fashion. I have said this before. And will say it again, no doubt.
It seems to me that food in and out of restaurants has increased quite a bit, but nothing else has. So people will cook again & a lot of restaurants will struggle/go out of business.
I was adding to my stock watches in anticipating jumping in after a mkt limit day, but that graph, which if it were not in log form would be pretty much straight up sorta changed my mind. Still a bunch of very low buy orders. . . Satan, get behind me!!
Jas Jain, Gerald,
I went to my local Home Depot (Suburban DC) and I've never seen it so quiet on a Sunday afternoon. (Even allowing for the Redskins game.)
Great link, Kona. The comments make some additional interesting points.
Letting Lehman go down was clearly necessary. All of the Euro-Banksters seem to think they were working with government guarantees, and it appears that they were.
otherdeb: Yes, Sumerians, cuneiform, the whole shebang
Can anyone name an instance where panic - full fledged, generally felt panic - has been contained in a matter of weeks? In 1987 the 401(k) was a pretty rare phenomenon, so Average Joe didn't have much at stake. Nobody knew about LTCM or the Asia crises.
This one is different. My grandma knows about it. It's not going away until we've been through a lot more pain.
-Jaso
HANG SENG INDEX up
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
Sumerians were cool. We have 360 degrees and 60 minute clocks because of them. But to judge by their art they were shrimpy and squatty. or, maybe they thought that was beautiful.
Pope Innocent III yesterday, Sumerians today. . .
Cramer is predicting huge Dow price declines Monday and Tuesday. Target price 4700 by Tuesday.
No one really knows, of course, but it kind of feels like the powers-that-be don't have a handle on the situation yet.
Comments?
@ Geoff,
Guess you haven't read my posts here for the last 18 months. Either that or you are trapped in 2X bear etf's.
Rots a Ruck.
dont worry cramer sweetie.
they will close the markets on mon and tue until they sort this out
neel kashkari will save USA
Pardners,
I don't believe there is enough gold in them thar hills to save this one horse town.
Giddyup!
Since when was Cramer right about anything. I guess the MSM has decided that panic sells.
At 4700 should he be right I will buy.
The Sumerians seem to have developed one of the world's first systems of monarchy
It was the straw that broke the camels back, says Joe Lynagh, a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, an investment company.
Kona | 10.12.08 - 10:39 pm | #
Those folks over there at T. Rowe are a joke. I cashed out in Jan 2008 after being lied to and going back and forth with recorded phone calls. I had to keep 2% in their funds. My company has met my match and I now give them 0% until 2009. I was up 14.8% when I cashed out and went to CDs. You get uninformed inexperienced fools on the phone over there!
The oldest proven records of brewing are about 6,000 years old and refer to the Sumerians. Sumeria lay between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers including Southern Mesopotamia and the ancient cities of Babylon and Ur. It is said that the Sumerians discovered the fermentation process by chance. No one knows today exactly how this occurred, but it could be that a piece of bread or grain became wet and a short time later, it began to ferment and a inebriating pulp resulted. A seal around 4,000 years old is a Sumerian "Hymn to Ninkasi", the goddess of brewing. This "hymn" is also a recipe for making beer.
"Cramer is predicting huge Dow price declines Monday and Tuesday. Target price 4700 by Tuesday."
If that happens, I will be all in by Wednesday. The Dow is not going to zero.
But fading Cramer has been the best strategy for so long that I'm tempted to place some orders tonight.
Duran Duran
Noooooooooo....
I went to a kroq acoustic christmas concert in 92ish? simon lebon was so off key it was awful. they suck - but their videos seemed ok - back then, that is....
Hahaha..Good one Ross. I dont think youve read mine either. Im not trapped in anything, since Ive been out of the market for quite some time. You might get your bounce tomorrow, but the last few expectations, after up futures, didnt turn out so well. I would say though, that if you are wrong this time, we are all screwed. So Im kind of hoping you are right.
Uh, Kona, one need not get bread wet. The copious apples that fall around my old tree get the deer drunk, with no human intervention.
I expect nothing from stockbrokers any more that I expect from real estate brokers. I expect them to execute trades and send me some out of date literature. That's all. Clearly mutual fund managers don't know any more than I do, or they'd beat the mkt.
Stock brokers don't like it when I laugh at them.