David J, Yes, Lereah has really being drinking the Kool Aid. Once the boom ends (and it might surprise people and last a little longer) then speculation will fall off - and speculation has been a key driver for this boom.
JS, Lereah's comments might be CYA, but it does make sense to rein in the exotic loans. I wish the regulatory agencies had tightened standards a couple of years ago - we might have avoided the worst part of the speculative bubble.
My biggest concern is the impact on the general economy of a slowing housing market. If UCLA's Dr. Thronberg is correct, and California housing is overvalued by about 35%, it will take several years to bring the market back to normal values. That will be a drag on the bubble states for some time.
Oh well, better late than never I guess - but the regulatory action sure seems like closing the barn door a little too late.
If the spring time real estate season goes no place and the inventory over hang stays or grows- you need not have the gift of a genuius to see what will happen. How can any market go from a speculative frenzy with soaring prices in the most important geographic parts of the country, with increases of nearly 100% or more, then go into an 'expansion'. Mr. Lereah truly believes the idea 'the bigger the lie, the more people will believe it'.....I am sitting here wainting a mere 3 months down the road when the spring buying season is on-lets see if the 'expansion' is on.
Sure. It is late for those kind of adjustments (Who else has this kind of free money for the short term before one faces the music?) [Ah all those commercial banks who put their mitts on 1 and 2% money in those years after 9/11?]
Lereah is speaking on behalf of the industry here. Responsibly. As if more was at stake than his own career. We could do with more like him. We could.
Thank you for that link JS --frightening numbers.
The average price $267K, up from $261K, and just below the August record of $269K. Prices are not seasonally adjusted and it is normal for prices to fall a little from the summer peak.
[Suppose we ignore the SA bit and maybe don't go ballistic on 'average'.]
One poster thought it might be more than seasonal adjustments to account for that increase which I thought might be worth connecting to speculator vulnerability and preferences as shown by recent refi package sizes. The bigger houses are moving --can we just verify that by looking at the number of transactions?, because they need to? Or are we wanting to say that last month's numbers were slightly depressed making this month's numbers look better?
It is small potatoes. Noise as Robert might say.
I think ya are drinking Kool Aid. Any recession will be exported to China and it will take a recession for people to come off their house for less money. I'd be worried if I lived in Asia.
Yeah, China better watch out or we'll export our recession to them.
I wonder if that was the message that Greenspan gave them. Whoops I forgot the President made an even more recent trip and that message was?..."it is irresponsible for Democrats to now say that..." Doesn't appear that he really knew where he was, so no help there.
GM and Ford aren't worried about the recession that we might export to China judging by their recent $3B investments.
California will see yet another strong year of economic growth in '06, including continued appreciation in real estate, albeit at a slower rate.
The "most devestating economic calamity since The Great Depression" (according to bubbleheads) will be launched from 4.9 months of inventory and 6.25% interest rates? Come now. Pull yourselves together.
"This signals that the housing sector has likely passed its peak. The boom is winding down to an expansion"
Keep drinking the Kool Aid. There will be no soft landing for the bubble markets ( places like LA, San Fran, Miami etc..
David J, Yes, Lereah has really being drinking the Kool Aid. Once the boom ends (and it might surprise people and last a little longer) then speculation will fall off - and speculation has been a key driver for this boom.
Best Regards.
CR,
Speaking of Lereah, did you see this at the Housing Bubble:
http://thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com/2005/11/economist-lobbies-for-fewer-exotic.html
I agree with some of the comments there: it looks like CYA. What do you make of it?
JS, Lereah's comments might be CYA, but it does make sense to rein in the exotic loans. I wish the regulatory agencies had tightened standards a couple of years ago - we might have avoided the worst part of the speculative bubble.
My biggest concern is the impact on the general economy of a slowing housing market. If UCLA's Dr. Thronberg is correct, and California housing is overvalued by about 35%, it will take several years to bring the market back to normal values. That will be a drag on the bubble states for some time.
Oh well, better late than never I guess - but the regulatory action sure seems like closing the barn door a little too late.
Best Wishes.
If the spring time real estate season goes no place and the inventory over hang stays or grows- you need not have the gift of a genuius to see what will happen. How can any market go from a speculative frenzy with soaring prices in the most important geographic parts of the country, with increases of nearly 100% or more, then go into an 'expansion'. Mr. Lereah truly believes the idea 'the bigger the lie, the more people will believe it'.....I am sitting here wainting a mere 3 months down the road when the spring buying season is on-lets see if the 'expansion' is on.
Sure. It is late for those kind of adjustments (Who else has this kind of free money for the short term before one faces the music?) [Ah all those commercial banks who put their mitts on 1 and 2% money in those years after 9/11?]
Lereah is speaking on behalf of the industry here. Responsibly. As if more was at stake than his own career. We could do with more like him. We could.
Thank you for that link JS --frightening numbers.
Mark T has a problem with this:
The average price $267K, up from $261K, and just below the August record of $269K. Prices are not seasonally adjusted and it is normal for prices to fall a little from the summer peak.
[Suppose we ignore the SA bit and maybe don't go ballistic on 'average'.]
One poster thought it might be more than seasonal adjustments to account for that increase which I thought might be worth connecting to speculator vulnerability and preferences as shown by recent refi package sizes. The bigger houses are moving --can we just verify that by looking at the number of transactions?, because they need to? Or are we wanting to say that last month's numbers were slightly depressed making this month's numbers look better?
It is small potatoes. Noise as Robert might say.
I think ya are drinking Kool Aid. Any recession will be exported to China and it will take a recession for people to come off their house for less money. I'd be worried if I lived in Asia.
Yeah, China better watch out or we'll export our recession to them.
I wonder if that was the message that Greenspan gave them. Whoops I forgot the President made an even more recent trip and that message was?..."it is irresponsible for Democrats to now say that..." Doesn't appear that he really knew where he was, so no help there.
GM and Ford aren't worried about the recession that we might export to China judging by their recent $3B investments.
California will see yet another strong year of economic growth in '06, including continued appreciation in real estate, albeit at a slower rate.
The "most devestating economic calamity since The Great Depression" (according to bubbleheads) will be launched from 4.9 months of inventory and 6.25% interest rates? Come now. Pull yourselves together.
air car loan online onlinesitemap.com payment purifier will air car loan online onlinesitemap.com payment purifier will air car loan online onlinesitemap.com payment purifier will. pacific mortgage and 40 year loan pacific mortgage and 40 year loan pacific mortgage and 40 year loan.