Paul Krugman Nobel Prize News Conference
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 10/13/2008 - 9:02pm (79 comments)
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Smart guy. Wish he weren't such an ass.
emo
Paul Krugman is history's greatest monster!
Does anyone think that today's rally could be undone by the end of the week? Or was the rally SO large that we are set to wait at least a couple weeks before retesting the lows?
frist psot!
Nemo...I second that thought
Sniglet, I would definitely not say that today's rally was so large that it precludes breathtaking drops this week.
What actually will happen, who knows? But for me I won't be much of a buyer until earnings get in the habit of disappointing.
Or was the rally SO large that we are set to wait at least a couple weeks before retesting the lows?
Sniglet
SO large has only been a phrase I've heard from the women in my bedroon. Followed by, "I can't feel my legs!" I think you mean, so orchrestrated."
If Kruggie got a Nobel every day this week, the Dow would go up 5000 points.
Snig,
I really doubt we will retest soon. that said a solid round of "profit taking" will occur sometime this week. I also believe we will revisit the lows before year end.
Mr. Krugman, I totally "get" you and I love you, dude. I'm packing a fat bongload in your honor.
Right on, brother.
The dude is a partisan hack. Anderson has a nice piece on this in forbes:
Krugman In Wonderland - Forbes.com
Most of them are partisan slingers. Most of them have the personality of a sea sponge or a d-bag.
Vic - Im not a big fan of Krugman's political writings, but this Anderson piece is a bunch of crap. Krugman's anti de-regulation stance isn't attacking basic deregulation, it's attacking complete deregulation of things that can turn into timebombs. Deregulating the airline industry isnt the same as deregulating finance. The airlines dont fork with the money supply.
All I know is I don't have a Nobel Prize. If I did, I would call myself, Senator, and make others try to convince me otherwise.
So when does Ben Stein get a prize? He's just as big a hack, and just as often wrong.
Krugman is a lib mouthpiece stuffed into a cheap suit.
Forbes, as in Steve Forbes, is of course NOT a partisan hack.
You, on the other hand, are an anonymous blogger (as am I), which naturally qualifies us as arbiters of economic theory. Yeahok.
Granted, Krugman was much more respectable as an economist than a political writer, but I think his stance of late is one he somewhat reluctantly takes. His point seems to be that we've blown this thing up so bad already that you cant fix it with more of the same medicine that got us where we are, and the socialist approach is thus arrived at somewhat reluctantly. I dont want to make giant excuses for the guy, but I dont think we need to blow him up like he is some nut job. I do think, though, that he has taken a somewhat lazy approach to his NYtimes pieces, which I cant really understand, given that he was hardly a lazy economist.
So when does Ben Stein get a prize?
He had his own gameshow. He should have given himself a prize then.
I nominate CR for next years' Nobel in Econ! Can I get a second?
"So when does Ben Stein get a prize?"
As I recall, he gives them out on his gameshow.
bloomberg up 164... looks as if market happy re: infinite bailouts... confirm if ted declines... in which case rally is real, good for IMO 10-30 days... avg intra bear market (IBM) rally goes 30 days, but earnings might spoil the fun... IMO this one short side... so far this crash has had 5 IBM declines, dotcom had 8.
Hallmark of bear markets is volatility, both high and low... there were no 300 point up moves in bull market following dotcom, half a dozen in dotcom crash...
One way to play the volatility is to pick short and long etf's, buy each group when low, sell when high... some held SKF above 160, not prudent, particularly with IBM decline long in tooth... I opened positions in uyg, xlf and iat just after market open this am (market already up 300), will reverse to qid/scc/sds in 10 days or so (usually decent strategy is wait 10 days from low [from last fri to next mon], then reverse next decent up day)...
More IBM declines/rallies in store... IMO markets down 60-80% end 2009.
PK is a big doodie-head.
So you don't like his values. Cool, man. If he were the Fed Chairman or SecTreas, I could understand. Dude writes. And he is an interesting, thought-provoking guy IMO...even when he's wrong in the end.
Paulson is the face for Wall Street.
Krugman is the face for Main Street.
I like Krugman. I fear Paulson.
Great quote I stole from an anonymous poster at NC:
"In a ham and cheese omelet, the hen and cow are involved but the pig is committed.
Bankers, treasury and fed are the cows and hens but the poor tax payer is the freaking pig who is slaughtered."
Anyway, the scare tactics worked. Neo-cons, chicago, keynesians, socialists, supply-siders scared the whole world and saved the bankers. Now for the follow up: USA Bankrupt, regulation, recession, new asset bubbles, war.
We're already at war.
I'm at war against irony used as sarcasm.
"Liberalz r good. Conservatives is bad."
I canz haz Nobel now? Oh wait, Krugman already posited this profound principle of economics. "Dismal Science" does a disservice to both words.
I like Dr. Krugman, simply because he writes for those of us who don't understand all the technicalities of economics. I read The Great Unraveling, which sparked an interest in learning more, which lead me eventually here, to Roubini, Mish, and further study. I know he won for his academic work, but he is still highly accessible to the "little guy/gal".
You dudes have been over-served on the ice cold haterade.
I like Paul Krugman, because he is named after Paul Simon and that guy from Quincy.
Maybe Stephanopoulos didn't make a slip? Maybe he he considers nationalization to be privatization. Overthought and possibly trivial, but think about it.
Sorry, OT
Currently Smoking Cannabis, did you see the news blurb about the guy at the McDs drive-up that tried to pay for his meal with weed? A little early on the barter system was he.LOL
Rob, conservativism, as expressed in the current Republican Party, is in fact, for lack of a better word, "bad".
Deficits don't matter
Pushing Creationism into the life sciences
Taliban-esque Biblical-based anti-gay bigotry
Invasion into a woman's decision to terminate her pregnancy
"Hey, let's go take out Saddam and see what happens!"
Let's cut the present Social Security off at the knees in favor of putting retirement money in personal accounts
Instead of price controls on Big Pharma, let's subsidize their 30% profit margins with Medicare Part D.
I could go on, but you get the picture
FWIW, I believe Krugman earned this award for his "liquidity trap" economic analyses.
And Krugman is no liberal democrat. He's more of a classical liberal, it was the sheer craptitude of the last 8 years that made him into the partisan monster he is now.
LOL. OMG, at the drive-up even. I hate to admit, I understand.
CSC,
if the bailout socialism scheme doesn't work, Krugman has to give it back. Deal?
I like politics as much as I like glass bottom boats.
Troy writes:
Rob, conservativism, as expressed in the current Republican Party, is in fact, for lack of a better word, "bad".
There's your problem. The Republican party has as much to do with conservatism as Krugman has to do with impartiality.
Dawg: Dude, it is NOT going to work. I don't think he is right in this. I think he is a smart guy with a great personality and I'm stoked to see him win it.
Are their more brilliant economists? Absolutely. But not too many prominent ones who are not only smart, but who also probably pulled a keg stand in the last year.
If a doctor had Krugman's success rate what would be his chances at the Nobel in medicine?
He might have mixed a bit of vodka into that water bottle for this. Even his cheeks look a little red. Party on, Paul!
Troy quote:"And Krugman is no liberal democrat. He's more of a classical liberal, it was the sheer craptitude of the last 8 years that made him into the partisan monster he is now."
You were doing great on espousing the politics of conservatives and then you switched gears. Why? Liberalism is bad? Big government and social programs will bankrupt America?
Krugman writes for the NYT. The NYT is bad and a bastion for liberalism. If you write for the NYT you are bad.
Any other economist gets the Nobel and it wouldn't have been mentioned(except Roubini) on CR. Krugman who has consistently questioned motives and policies of a corrupt administration via the NYT and he's a partisan hack?
The divisions created in this country by MSM and politics will ultimately destroy us faster than any monetary policy. FFS quit being spoon fed your opinions.
Dawg: You are upset that the Noble prize is political and not just based on merit? Dude, after Arafat won/shared the Peace prize?
I know you are not at all naive, so why do you hate Paul Krugman?
Correct me if i am wrong, but wasnt Krugman arguing that oil priced COULD NOT possibly have been driven up by speculation?
Why? Liberalism is bad? Big government and social programs will bankrupt America?
LBJ liberalism was demonstrably bad, yes. Republicans don't hold the monopoly on bad governance.
The NYT is bad and a bastion for liberalism. I
Funny thing is that they are nothing of the sort. They are conservative-owned and run just like the rest of corporate media. Status-quo Centrism is their game, but they were not above keeping an active propaganda conduit (Judy Miller) on staff to push the pro-war line going into Iraq.
CR evidently has some respect for Krugman. Not that this should in and of itself validate PK's viewpoints, it does lead credence to their consideration. If in fact you disagree with them, fine - but I agree with CSC on this. Why the haterade? Because he got $1.4M and you didn't? His work presages the raison d'etre for this very blog, which you patronize, and yet somehow PK's views are worthless?
Then why are you here reading?
NYTimes reports every Nobel. Just a slight twist to this one since he writes for the paper already. The real problem with the NYTimes, other than the that they have gone to extreme measures as of late to dumb down their writing, is that they try to take stands, one way or another. I mean, they frickin hired KRISTOL. You think Krugman is bad? He may be a bit partial, but at least he has a functioning brain and isnt a complete hypocrite. When Kristol was hired, I knew that the NYT had lost its way. But it was already meandering around on the edge of the forest for a while anyway; it was just a matter of time before it when in so deep that it could never recover.
And I wont even start on Gretchen.
Krugman in June:
"Is speculation playing a role in high oil prices? Its not out of the question. Economists were right to scoff at Mr. Masters buying a futures contract doesnt directly reduce the supply of oil to consumers but under some circumstances, speculation in the oil futures market can indirectly raise prices, encouraging producers and other players to hoard oil rather than making it available for use."
OP-ED COLUMNIST; Fuels on the Hill - NY Times
CSC,
I don't hate Krugman. I just don't think his work has much merit.
The Republican party has as much to do with conservatism as Krugman has to do with impartiality.
And that's your problem, since true-Scotsman conservatism is a dead letter deader than WFB then.
Dawg - you see who the Nobel committee awarded the Literature prize too?
The appointment has as much to do with global geopolitics as any "merit". If Bloom County had an accessible website, I'd post that classic sunday toon about economists taking "positions" on some issue. Opus et al look to be doing twister.
That said, the committee deemed his theories meritorious. If you dislike his column that's another issue altogether.
That's Saint Buckley if you please.
I just don't think his work has much merit.
The Great Unravelling is an excellent collection of his essays that greatly informed my understanding of what was happening earlier this decade.
As for his technical stuff, I do think his liquidity trap stuff is also quite interesting, even if it is somewhat over my head, not being a trained economist and all.
LOL. Tarnation, why is Breathed killing off Opus now? All the greats are gone - Calvin, Far Side, Bloom County.
I like WFB to some extent . . . he was willing to throw some good words out about Georgism, my present hobby-horse.
Here is my tribute to Nobel Krugman:
Dawg: Fair enough. I am not an economist or a 'heavy' and Krugman helps me understand. You don't need that from him so you judge his analysis. I rescind the haterade comment. And I take one more rip for my man, Pauli K.
Krugman deserved the Nobel ...
All you ideologues that disparage the man have not a clue.
Hopefully the Nobel Prize will help turn the tide away from Austrian mumbo jumbo towards a legitimate form of econ.
You guys are pretty ridiculous. 3/4 of the entire country hates the Republican party. Enjoy expressing your bitter jealousy to the echo chamber known as blog comments.
Every time that I watch him on video, I get very anxious just seeing him drinking unlimited amounts of water, (to paraphrase comedian Lewis Black) is he going to cross the Mojave Desert?! wtf!
Does anyone think that today's rally could be undone by the end of the week?
It could, but that would actually be evidence of a healing market, and I don't think that is what we have here.
Instead we may go straight up for a while, with each rally less violent than the previous one, and volume lighter each day.
That would be very bad, and presage a stupendous crash.
I can't believe nobody mentioned how shrill Krugman is.
Comments with substance are far and few between these days.
Thanks for the video.
And thanks to Paul Krugman for sticking it to the man!
I can't believe nobody mentioned how shrill Krugman is.
PeakVT | 10.14.08 - 6:33 am | #
Come on now, after the last 8 years iit is clear that PK in his most anti bush rants was not shrill enough. His academic work on liquidity traps and on how a small first mover advantage can translate into entire regions being synonomous with particular industires (i.e. autos = Detroit, Sillicon Valley = Computers) were very important contributions to economic understanding.
As for his columns, I consider thenm a must read even if I dont agree with all the details. the only other NYT columnist in his same leauge is Friedman, although Dowd can be entertaining. Brooks has the occasional interesting insight. The NYT would have been better served if they hired Billy Krystal the actor than William Krystal the right wing wing nut.
My Congradulations go out to PK. Great book end to his John Bates Clark medal
he looks like the ill-begotten love child of an ewok and george clooney.
How appropriate, the YouTube image on my screen shows Krugman picking his nose.
There have been a lot of lame Nobel prizes, this one is right up there.
Cannabis: Most of them have the personality of a sea sponge
This is an affront to Sponge-Bob fans everywhere.
For all you hopeless morons who are whinning about Krugman's nobel and calling him a hack:
1) He didn't win for his op-ed columns - he won it for work in international trade.
2) I doubt any of you are qualified to comment on the work for which he won the prize. How many of you have even read it?
Thanks for coming out, but the Princeton professor with a long career and track record for being right wins.
Jerks.
Does this mean we can now speak of bubbles in perjorative terms?
Patrick - Well put. Krugman deserved this honour.
If Steven Levitt ever wins one though, I'll break out the Hateraide.
Snig,
I really doubt we will retest soon. that said a solid round of "profit taking" will occur sometime this week. I also believe we will revisit the lows before year end.
Exactly Patrick.
Krugman was the reason I became interested in socioeconomics and went on to do the things I do. Yes I have read some of his early papers for school. I have had the chance to see him speak twice.
And you GOP whinners can go stuff yourselves >; )
Nemo...I second that thought
It is funny how where you sit politically is where you stand regarding PK's merits...
I do think PK got it mostly right wrt to Bush - that's probably what pisses GOPers off the most. Bush is an ass & PK pointed to that.
Not a surprise folks want to shoot the messenger. Rings of right... er left... wing conspiracy.
And the folks who were the maddest at Jimmy Carter circa 1980 were the LIBERALS not the conservatives. We'll see the same thing from conservatives. GOPers will never forgive GWB for making their road all that much harder going forward - he could cost them a generation of voters (like Carter did for 'the left').
Oh - and as for timing? The GOPers absolutely got a bitch here - the Nobel's absolutely were aware of the politics & the bruhaha it would produce. PKs award was not OFFICIALLY due to his poking GWB in the eye for eight years - but the timing (why now) wasn't a coincidence IMO.
Irony is it won't matter in the election - like flyover is going to pay attention to what a bunch of ferriners think about a NYC 'lefty' EEE-cono-mist... and flyover (western PA, S Ohio, Missouri, etc) is where this election will be won/lost.
Nemo...I second that thought
Anderson's article back in 2003 did a much beter job of pointing out Krugman's flaws.
Krugman is no economist. Besides all that is noted in this article, he has committed the Broken Window Fallacy (Google it) numerous times and should be laughed out of the profession for that alone.
An "economist" who commits the Broken Window Fallacy might as well be an astrologer.
Krugman the Keynesian - William L. Anderson - Mises Institute
I am thrilled that they gave the Nobel to Krugman. Party hearty, PK, the functioning polymath. Do you know why there is no Nobel for mathematics?