That's the populace not the banks. If these clowns think I'm going to work my ass off, have the goverment taxes the hell out of me and gives it to the banks so I can borrow it back from them higher intrest rate they're full of shit. I love being bum.
A few days ago I remember seeing a headline something like, "Government Rescuers Search Desvastation for Survivors," and for a moment I thought it was about our banking crisis -- it was really about rescue teams combing Galveston, Texas after the hurricane.
Yup we could instead put $250 Billion towards rebuilding roads, bridges and water delivery systems, and then put another trillion or so in capitalizing energy investments. That looks like a better use of our money than re-liquefying banks to wash, spin, repeat cycle.
But this is socialism for the rich, the well connected and Wall Street so they can try and continue to sell the 'illusion of prosperity' dream for Americans.
However, the bad news is the American middle class are still on the hook for trillions and your standard of living is likely to go down.
It's the Mad Layout Editor at work! He speaks truth, when the reporters fear to.
On another note, I heard the old Stones song "Baby, you're out of time" on the tube the other day, and it keeps going through my head whenever I read the financial news.
"That's the populace not the banks. If these clowns think I'm going to work my ass off, have the goverment taxes the hell out of me and gives it to the banks so I can borrow it back from them higher intrest rate they're full of shit. I love being bum."
This is the problem. I share your attitude and am seeing it spread...slowly...
Why work when work is not valued and when the rewards of your work come in the form of an ultimately doomed currency. The rational man just sits it out (or at least minimizes it's focus as a priority in his life) until the smoke clears.
They've got their Level 3 down to $58bn in Aug from $67bn in May. Mind you it's level 3 so that was probably a loss. They've also still got $10bn of level 3 assets, but structured with non-recourse loans so they'll just screw the clients there. $18bn of that $58bn level 3 is in mortgages
Commercial Real Estate backed loans are $14.6bn in Aug down from $19bn in Nov 2007
They've got average bank financing of 6 month maturities. 'Fed will give us whatever we want in any case' (from conf. call)
They seem to be heavy in commodities and treasuries, lightening everywhere else
Can't discuss too much without flooding CR, so I'll leave it at those tidbits
mykillk
Arson is a common way out of a negative equity mortgage in countries with recourse loans. If for no other reason than to break even.
I've seen a report that detailed increased auto financing losses due to what one assumes to be insurance fraud (lighting car on fire, accidentally shifting out of park and totaling the car, 'theft').
Unlike a mortgage, consumer financing (furniture, cars, credit cards, etc) have been toughened since 2006 I believe at the behest of credit card companies. This is bad on a macroeconomic level because an encumbered consumer will make the recession last longer
we could instead put $250 Billion towards rebuilding roads, bridges and water delivery systems,
Ah, the typical slogans. Congratulations on not using the cliched word "infrastructure." But why should we subsidize affluent people in the suburbs who have cars by building them nice new roads and bridges--or subsidize suburbanites who need more water for their lawns or to fill their pools?
Any government-organized transfer of wealth is socialism, even if it's to the poor--which is where it should go, if we're going to have some socialism.
Ah, the typical slogans. Congratulations on not using the cliched word "infrastructure." But why should we subsidize affluent people in the suburbs who have cars by building them nice new roads and bridges--or subsidize suburbanites who need more water for their lawns or to fill their pools?
Suburbanites aren't the only people using the nation's highways and bridges. Or do city dwellers expect to grow all their own food in rooftop gardens? Good luck with that.
Cliffo;
"Any government-organized transfer of wealth is socialism"
Perhaps, but necessary socialism in the case of the commons. I would like to see some repairs to highways and bridges, which would not be a subsidy to affluent suburbanites, but would support the movement of goods. We all benefit from the interstate highway system. Private money would not work for this, it has to be organized by government, unfortunately, with all of the featherbedding and other BS that entails.
kevin: Peter Schiff recently wrote an article where he argued that credit card companies are the next to blow up. His suggestion: Charge your credit card to the max while you can because the government is going to step in and bail you out anyway. Debt forgiveness.
The frightening thing about a currency collapse are all the stories from Weimar where people would mysteriously start buying tons of obviously useless pianos and other durable goods, and nobody could figure out why.
Rick Santelli laughed at the other panelists and said no one in the bond market has any clue what is going to happen next. Everyone is waiting for the UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES.
NYSE is trading stupid right now. 80% up volume on top monday and friday's gains. Commodity producers and utilities are doing ok, steady cash infrastructure too, but it's mostly a reflection of financials having money thrown at them by the Treasury.
Every other exchange is balanced or negative on volume balance. (ignoring those closed Monday which missed out on the rocketship)
Nothing like playing Shubert and Beethoven as the house burns down. Elegance in decline. Like an impoverished aristocrat wearing his threadbare dinner jacket and monocle as he scavenges holding a garbage pail lid hardly brimming with beet tops and mouldy bread.
Crispy;
"I wonder if the fire is mysteriously 'jumping streets' with solo homes burned down..."
Since "jumping streets" is a very real phenomenon, some might get away with it.
Did you watch the pattern of the last big fire in Malibu? It was "leaping tall buildings", so to speak. There were untouched fields of combustibles separating houses that looked like they got nailed by orbital laser weapons.
km4 writes:
they can try and continue to sell the 'illusion of prosperity' dream for Americans.
Americans seem to be living pretty well and have been doing so for quite some time. A third of Americans pay no income taxes (thanks to those of us that do). The prosperity is no illusion, however much we may argue about the solidity of its foundation. Been to Mexico lately?
"mykillk writes:
One of the SoCal fires was able to jump across the 8-lane 210 Freeway yesterday. 60 mph gusts from the Santa Ana winds will do that!"
Up north in, in similarly burnable hills, the rural FDs recommend clear space for 50 yards around the house, except for something like iceplant. Because embers and fire can travel far. Few do it.
I talked to a fire dispatcher who lived up in the hills. He had 75 yards of clearance, and a barrel of fire retardant foam ready to go. That's what you need.
What is the end state of all these? I mean BEYOND the depression, BEYOND the change in world order. If someone is trying to forecast into 20 year later, what's the world's economy likely to look like?
I suspect that Emerging Markets, esp in Asia, will collectively overtake the western countries. Think an Asian bloc, EU style.
Bretton Woods 2 will be replaced with 3 major world currencies: US, EU and AU (Asian Union?).
Basic Infrastructure building will continue through out the next 2 century, depression or not. If Earth is to survive, we better have significant Alt Energy growth too.
If you zoom out to the next 20 years, all the nonsense we see now isn't that bad. As long as the world's civilization survives intact, I still see the world economy growing in 2028.
So, with that said, how can a small fry tap into this long term vision? Should I invest in stocks?
mykillk - if it werent for the handout for financials pumping those stocks, the numbers would like terrible. They stink as it is, but this puppy is basically going down. We'll have our up days, but I dont even think last week was a bottom. It will take a while for the economic reality to set in...what will do it will be monthly job loss numbers topping 300k. (double the sept rate)
"If human life in anything resembling the numbers currently present on Earth is to survive, we better have significant Alt Energy growth too."
Fixed it for you. The planet will do fine whether we're here or not. In truth, if we don't get our collective alternative energy asses in gear, Earth is likely to do a lot better since there will be roughly 80% fewer of us nasty Homo Sapiens running around mucking up the joint.
It's clear to me that in five years or so the dollar will completely collapse. The good thing about the great depression was that we did not have the ability to debase our own currency because of the gold standard. We won't be saved by that now.
OT for those in NYC, our zombiecon is going to be hitting wall street on sat. hundreds of zombie hotties in banker and worker garb on a wild pub crawl, totally hilarious. zombie banks, here we come.
the path and timing are secret, it's participatory underground art, no voyeurs. here is the signup link with pics from times past. i'll have a brain at the end of rope on a pole if you want to say hi, or eeerrrhhheghh.
The small investor should take his money out, stuff it in his mattress and set up a microlending operation on his street. Become a "Big Man" and soon will be able to afford many wives.
Back in my buy-and-hold days, I put $10K into VWO at $47.30 (pre-split). Early this year I sold at $94.28 (pre-split), and right now it's pre-split number would be $59 and change (price at this moment is $29.24)
Not trying to display my "genius". Just saying wow, what a ride.
Yahoo says the P/E ttm on it is currently 11.92. As with the S&P 500, beware the value trap.
Americans seem to be living pretty well and have been doing so for quite some time. A third of Americans pay no income taxes (thanks to those of us that do). The prosperity is no illusion, however much we may argue about the solidity of its foundation. Been to Mexico lately?
The US is an extremely wealthy and prosperous nation, the problem is people in this country thought they were twice as wealthy as they really were. The idea that a large part of the country was relatively near a comfortable retirement courtesy of their stocks and houses was in fact an illusion.
People are now waking up to the fact that they may have to work 10 to 15 years longer than they expected and that is likely to be a tremendous shock with both economic and social consequences.
Penrod and Sam:
"It's clear to me that in five years or so the dollar will completely collapse. The good thing about the great depression was that we did not have the ability to debase our own currency because of the gold standard. We won't be saved by that now."
Nothing is completely one way or the other. I suspect USD will gradually lose it's influence, just like British Pound did. It'll still be a player, just not the only game in town.
That's why I suspect Asian economies will fare better in the long run.
Because at the end of the day, they're self-sufficient, USA is not.
Two upside down houses sitting side by side. One owner is lighting matches and the other's flicking his Bic, Sirens are a wailing better get here quick
Burn it up, Burn it up, Housing prices upside down.
anonymous writes:
"The small investor should take his money out, stuff it in his mattress and set up a microlending operation on his street. Become a "Big Man" and soon will be able to afford many wives."
I don't know how one could pay for all of the wives after making the payroll for all the Guidos needed to run collections. The proles cannot pay...
"Bob Dobbs writes...On another note, I heard the old Stones song "Baby, you're out of time" on the tube the other day, and it keeps going through my head whenever I read the financial news."
Jefferson Airplane--White Rabbit
Traffic--Dear Mr. Fantasy
Humble Pie--Thirty Days in the Hole (as in Jackson Hole, the lyrics are about a drug binge so they fit the credit bubble).
I request that our resident Youtubers create suitable Bernanke/Paulson videos.
I thought about that last year but remember where the market was and how people just wouldn't or couldn't see anything "bad" about it.
The problems with the SD fires were about brush removal and stupid people who stayed too long and had to be rescued...thus diverting needed resources. Having said that I do think it could have been minimized but it was pretty much out of control by Sunday evening. We left at 2am Monday morning.....
RANT ON
here back in europe we have a very fragmented car market because of many countries with different sets of car equipment levels. so i went to car dealer to buy a car. and even tough there is a recession coming i could not get the colour which i wanted and had to pay premium for a black metalic colour. anyway, a colleagues of mine are waiting 4 month for a seat and 3 months for an audi. why? because we have 27 countries in eu with its own importers with various equipment for each single country. and because of this market fragmentation and buirokratic regulations i feel like its all 80s again and we are waiting to buy a car weeks/months like we would live in communismus.
at the end i heard a very strange thing. that one has to wait 18 months for a volkswagen touareg? and they call this a recession?
RANT OFF
The US is self sufficient - it just needs to learn how to live without cheap Chinese crap.
Our dependence on oil is too lopsided. While we may only consume 5%-10% more than we produce, it is so skewed toward oil that we're still in a situation where our entire economy could collapse if there was some dramatic cut off in supply.
I'm still waiting for Bernanke to tweak that printer to start pumping out oil and prove that the Federal Reserve isn't the ultimate builder of "Potemkin Villages" as Vockler likes to say.
The percentage you're paying is too high priced
While you're living beyond all your means
And the man in the suit has just bought a new yacht
From the profit he made on your dreams
But today you just read that the man was shot dead
By a gun that didn't make any noise
But it wasn't the bullet that laid him to rest
Was the low mark of well-heeled boys
I already got my free pony. And, I think Jaswant got his, too. I'm just afraid that when it is late and he is lonely, that pony will look awfully cute and .... Well, wait, I'm sure Jaswant R. Jain wouldn't do that..As for me, I built my pony a nice corral and he likes it.
People are now waking up to the fact that they may have to work 10 to 15 years longer than they expected and that is likely to be a tremendous shock with both economic and social consequences.
Not arguing with a word you say. But considering that life expectancy is 15 years higher than when Social Security was signed into law and about 25 years more than it was a century ago, the expectation of having to work an additional 10 years isn't all that unreasonable on its face.
And societal expectations can and do change quickly, when they need to. I suspect there weren't too many people in 1935 America who considered an immediate return to the prosperity of the late '20s their God-given right.
We're in for another such societal reconditioning, I suspect. And a long overdue one, too.
I understand the arbitrary nature of the survay. What I'm trying to get my teeth around is Conjure's stating that it's irrelevant.
I understand CBs replacing interbank lending with lower rates, but debt holders are still getting raked over the coals if LIBOR remains elevated. How is this irrelevant to the economic discussion?
Last week stern went down, but yesterday the bow popped up. Now the water is spreading throughout we're arighted and settling. As long as the keel doesn't turn on us.
Life expectancy may have increased but not necessarily health. A 70 year old man today is no different than a 70 year old man in 1940 except that there are antibiotics, defibrillators and other stuff around today that weren't then.
Sorry for not posting earlier, but if anyone else was playing along with the markets today an ugly close is in the cards. Volume was looking bad about 1:40, and had steadily declined across all exchanges with the NYSE capitulating after lunch.
Probably finish the week down below Friday's open if the surveys/reports are bad too
If pumping easy money into local economies destroys them, then the logical fix is to pump easy money in the the global economy.
Our government officials and economic bureaucrats have one golden hammer in their arsenal, and they're going to beat everything with it until everything is dead.
It's irrelevant simply because it tracks interbank lending....they are not doing that now or will be in the future. It just happens that many debt instruments are priced from it.
It takes no balls to call direction right now. It takes balls to have patience and wait until there is some certainty in the market. But that means, you can't have fun yelling "black jack" when you get a winning hand.
Anonymous suggests that the small investor set up a microlending shop on one's street, and "be able to afford many wives".
As appealing as this may sound..I wonder how many of the "made my stack already" crowd would find that pursuit interesting? (I mean the lending, not the many wives part).
Would it not be akin to running a pawn shop, only without all the interesting gadgets to play with?
Has anyone thought this through a bit, and would be willing to comment?
Peter Schiff recently wrote an article where he argued that credit card companies are the next to blow up. His suggestion: Charge your credit card to the max while you can because the government is going to step in and bail you out anyway.
How disappointing this sentiment is. This kind of situational ethics (everybody else is doing it) is what got us into this mess.
C'mon, people. We are not animals. Do the right thing.
The 250 billion has already been lost. These companies can barely stay in business with the money, let alone pay off their debts with it. Nationalizing these companies just makes the goings on even less transparent to the taxpayer. God help us.
Thaksin,
There's many reasons why this was never going to be a good week. Lot of big economic reports. Options Friday. Got too out of sync with other global markets, wasted money rallying insignificant stocks too. Strikes, pending strikes, and layoffs.
It is all about the consumer and the credit market. Both are encumbered for the foreseeable future, and managers can't grind out a rally until they stop getting slapped by the statistics
I think looking at Schiff can go both ways. Why should the prudent continue to subsidize the reckless? It appears those who continue to make debt service payments may be the true lemmings.
If I've worked my tail off and saved and understand what is happening and understand I will continue to pay a disproportionate share of the bill, why not lever-up and go to the mattresses?
gabyjan,
I would say withdrawals from commodities (due to 10Q report releases, and knowledge of a slowing economy encouraged an avalanche of selling there) went a long way towards rounding up that funding. AIG increasing its loan to $122bn also goes a long way to meeting the $366bn of settling to be done (note some will be netted out, but not the 98+% that aleablog/DTCC were misleading people to believe). Also don't forget $125bn from the bed coming at an opportune time winkwink*
People don't need more stinkin' credit. They need living wages. Credit cards replaced living wages and the parasitical top 1% live off the indentured debt laborers. Paulson & Bernanke's job is to restart the status quo.
"Wall Street fell Tuesday after investors initially reacted enthusiastically to the U.S. government's plans to spend $250 billion to buy stock in private banks only to later book profits from the previous day's massive advance."
Translation:
The big stacks are taking their money off the table. The game is getting shorthanded with only shortstacks left to fight for the meager remains.
Hope you don't mind if I sit this one out.
My words but a whisper your debt a work-out.
The news makes you feel but it cant make you think.
Your scores in the gutter your price in the drink.
So you ride yourselves over the fields and
You make all your Kafkaesque deals and
Your loan men dont know how it feels to be thick as a brick.
And the sand-castle values are all swept away in
The tidal destruction
The moral melee.
The seismic retreat rings the close of play as the last wave uncovers
The unsuited prey.
But your hummers are worn at the wheels and
Your credit cards starting to squeal and
Your loan men don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick.
Sure you can. They're just not very nutritious:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Lotito
Man, this is one tough crowd. It was a joke.
Saddens me that no one laughed. Ponies are a long running meme at CR.
Been to Prosper.com already, maybe it was on your suggestion (few days ago). I'm wondering what the profile is of the person that lends that money. Prosper has put an admin layer between the lender and the lendee - bank back-office functions.
The micro-lender idea is different. It's mano-a-mano, close quarters with the neighbors. Totally different social dimensions. Trying to imagine what that might be like.
Life expectancy may have increased but not necessarily health. A 70 year old man today is no different than a 70 year old man in 1940 except that there are antibiotics, defibrillators and other stuff around today that weren't then.
That statement is so misguided that I don't know where to start.
I know 65- and 70-year olds who are marathon runners, skydivers, private pilots, biotechnology researchers. A lot of them have the mental and physical stamina of people half their age.
How many 70-year-olds do you think fit any of those descriptions in 1970, much less 1940?
I've always thought that by the time I hit 65, my generation would look at retiring at that age the same way today's baby boomers look at the concept of retiring at 50 ... something you'd do if you've hit it rich or wanted to take up a second career, but not what we'd consider the "default" option.
If anything, maybe now that mind-shift will come about in the next 10 years instead of in the next 30.
thank you evilhenry. wamu next thursay that ought to be interesting. cant find daily listing of companies having exposure to wamu. lehman had one.
i dont do the market,did one time stock went down got rid of it. im not a good sport. also reason i dont buy lottery tickets.
I don't see any way out of this mess except to eat the rich. The super-rich must go.
Maybe a more nuanced view is needed (even if you're not being serious).
Maybe the problem isn't rich people per se, but people who get rich not by creating wealth, but by using deception and government manipulation to steal the wealth of those who legitimately worked to create it.
How is a righteous man to remain moral under state sponsored moral turpitude?
Having an allegience higher than the state. Having a loyalty to his soul and the continual self knowledge of his conduct.
Serenity within the maelstrom. Forever may rust and moth corrupt, but a steely soul is beyond its touch.
It pisses me off that an enormous amount of my life is spent laboring for peanuts hoping to save and have a few good healthy years to enjoy my life. And here these carnival barkers, Bernanke, Paulson, and Bush/Congress gleefully throw my future earnings and retirement into the inferno THEY DEREGULATED. They've turned my hard-earned labor into funny money. Screw the status quo.
mortgage rates backed up to 6.20...treasuries rising is no help. Oh well, spend a few hudnred billion then institute cram sdowns and maybe we will see 8.
I'm thinking it's time to leave the equity markets behind, unless you can afford to trade intra-day.
Bond market, you can earn 8.3% on an Amgen bond due 2011. Drilling companies like Nabors and Transocean are above 10%
The only issues ready to test the market this week, are all on Friday:
California $4bn, Conneticut $424mn, Massachussetts Transport $350mn, Missouri Health & Edn $190mn, NYC $300mn, Ohio $375mn, Pennsylvania Turnpike $325mn
Pennsylvania had to back out of a another toll/privatization deal on another road before due to the bond market.
"Maybe the problem isn't rich people per se, but people who get rich not by creating wealth, but by using deception and government manipulation to steal the wealth of those who legitimately worked to create it."
Ding, ding, ding! If I could go back in time, I'd kill Hamilton.
Maybe the problem isn't rich people per se, but people who get rich not by creating wealth, but by using deception and government manipulation to steal the wealth of those who legitimately worked to create it.
Well, where do you stop with that definition? A woman who works 12 hours a day as a waitress for a below-subsistence wage and shitty tips probably would think that half the people who routinely post here fit that description. That you do nothing but put your wingtips on your desks and punch computer buttons to game the stock market and make thousands a week.
Everyone thinks they "work hard," even the guys who spend half the year at resorts. So what's the definition of "creating wealth"?
Guest, the micro-lender is an old idea. It's when you lend your tools to the neighbor and he doesn't return them, and when you lend $100 to your sister-in-law and she doesn't repay it.
i have decided that i like the "robber barons"of the 1890's much better than these "robbers". the barons had greed but they also had guilt. these have no quilt dont think they will get it anytime. and everytime i hear about tax cuts for the rich (people and corperations)i want to yell no they have no quilt ye
t.
just my opinio
JoGa,
WaMu the holding company went bankrupt and is facing class action lawsuits due to fraud in lending. Good chance of their bonds being worth pennies on the dollar, which means high CDS payouts. They should be smaller than Lehman, but it's one more wound to some hurting managers. Not clear how/when their covered bonds will be triggered, or if they followed to JP Morgan.
The focus should be on creating value, with wealth following that. If wealth is created without value, then it is artificial.
Builder Bob | 10.14.08 - 2:47 pm | #
Only if the US Government backs it like the other banks...
I just feel that you have to make TONS of loans over a short period of time for it to work. The longer you have a loan outstanding in this environment, the greater the risk of default...
NOw if the US GOVT baked every single prosper.com loan, now we're talking...
So... what happens in 2011 when those option ARMs come due for resets? What happens with the derivatives and MBS' tied to those time bombs? What happens to organizations holding those pieces of paper? Given the amount of loans that could go bad, and securities that could become worthless all over again, I can't imagine what kind of bank bailout would be possible the next time around.
This assumes that mass action isn't taken to convert those ARMs to fixed-rate mortgages, or that the MBS' and derivatives aren't unwound or otherwise made to disappear before time's up, of course.
All together now say it! KLONK! (that was yesterday's rally spanking its head on the bottom of the glass bottom boat this morning. It is now slowly sinking to the real bottom (of the ocean.)
Mook, human physiology has not changed since social security and yes there are many 70 year olds who can and want to continue working but they are not generally employed in physically demanding occupations.
One could argue the average American is in poorer health today at age 70 than his grandparents. If you look at photographs of people in the 1930's you won't see anything like the number of fat people as you do today.
People didn't jog or go to the gym to stay fit, their daily lives made them so.
We live longer today because medicine
has advanced not because we are 'healthier'.
"Is there any reason why the American people should be taxed to guarantee the debts of banks, any more than they should be taxed to guarantee the debts of other institutions, including merchants, the industries, and the mills of the country?" Senator Carter Glass, Author of the Banking Act of 1933
Well, where do you stop with that definition? A woman who works 12 hours a day as a waitress for a below-subsistence wage and shitty tips probably would think that half the people who routinely post here fit that description. That you do nothing but put your wingtips on your desks and punch computer buttons to game the stock market and make thousands a week.
Everyone thinks they "work hard," even the guys who spend half the year at resorts. So what's the definition of "creating wealth"?
Well I think the focus should be less on the value of work (for the sake of addressing our current problems) and more on the focus of how wealth moves through the system.
Specifically, I don't go around telling people what a great deal stocks and bonds and real estate are so I can knowingly sell them something for twice what it's worth.
I get paid well simply because the (real) work I do currently is economically valuable (so I'm told).
I think there's a pretty clear delineation between that and going on CNBC to make false claims about the value of certain assets in order to use them to "legally" reach into peoples' 401k plans and in effect rob them.
"One could argue the average American is in poorer health today at age 70 than his grandparents. If you look at photographs of people in the 1930's you won't see anything like the number of fat people as you do today.
People didn't jog or go to the gym to stay fit, their daily lives made them so."
You might have missed those unfiltered smokes the hanged fire with.
I'm close to advising friends and family to stop making debt payments.
I'm thinking there's more honor in standing and facing the apocalypse than steadfastly taking it in the ass in the name of "integrity" and feeling good about oneself while getting raped.
It might actually be better for our grandchildren too. Pay now vs. pay later.
i, we, some others, arent negative on the rich who are creators, entrepreneurs, investors, business people who sell products and deliver needed services
those that make a huge pile of money bringing to market a huge innovation are ok too
its the people who make obscene amounts of money, incomprehensible amounts of money raping the system and shuffling paper or promoting and profiting from unnecessary wars... that get my ire
The Politburo of California has ordered all homeowners to torch their homes and file the insurance claim. The economic problem with the banks will now be a problem for the insurance industry. The bank economic problem for the banks has been solved.
Coming attractions... squirrel soup, big budget musicals starring Renee Zellweger, new boardgame sensation sweeping the nation, yoyo tournaments, marathon dances, cheerful ditties on radio and barbed wire fences on Park Avenue.
i, we, some others, arent negative on the rich who are creators, entrepreneurs, investors, business people who sell products and deliver needed services
I got no problem with Steve Jobs and Bill Gates being rich.
"The focus should be on creating value, with wealth following that. If wealth is created without value, then it is artificial."
Wealth is always a promise for tomorrow; that's what money is and that's what debt is and that's what all other valuable items are. When the promise goes sour, well, that's where we are right now. And the 'fix' of the era seems to be: throw more promises at it.
It is true that they will be writing about these days years from now.
personal anecdote. DW and i went camping this weekend, bushwacked in the nearby large Bear Mt. State Park a couple of miles to an unauthorized campsite.
while hiking around, deeper and deeper, i found older campsites with a few faded generic beer cans. remember those?
i also found someone's bug out survival stash, that a bear had also found. leaving any food in a hidden stash is pretty goofy.
fantastic fall colors and time away from reality trumped it all!
I'm close to advising friends and family to stop making debt payments.
Don't go there. Credibility and trust are going to be in very short supply. Don't encourage people to reduce it. People who can pay debts should continue. For those who can't there are legal ways out - bankruptcy, and in some cases default and return of collateral. If the loans are for things where there are fraud issues (which includes many houses) join a lawsuit and pay into escrow accounts.
Mook, human physiology has not changed since social security and yes there are many 70 year olds who can and want to continue working but they are not generally employed in physically demanding occupations.
But that's just it. Our economy is no longer based on "physically demanding occupations" for the most part. It's service-based and knowledge-based.
Therefore, tomorrow's crop of 65-year-olds are far better positioned to continue to add value to the economy (and continue to be paid well for doing so) than those 65-year-olds a half-century ago.
If we were all still getting paid based on the number of widgets we cranked out per hour, I'd be counting down the days until I turned 65, too.
Here's a nifty idea, pump the workers pay to living wages so they can pay their debt.
rps | 10.14.08 - 2:26 pm | #
Over 2 months ago, I suggested wage inflation to stabilize home prices, no one thought it a good idea until you.
Mel
How? This is the hardest problem facing governments throughout history.
The idea of handing out dollars to accomplish this simply destroys the dollar and undermines the stability of the financial system.
I would argue that this method of attempting to use inflation as a replacement for real wealth creation is at the root of all our problems and is the surest path to poverty.
Pieces of paper are not wealth. Control over and influence over productive industry are wealth. Handing out pieces of paper to workers does not give them more control over productive industry, it merely dissociates the dollar with control over productive industry.
How do you convince industry to give workers more wealth with out having them flee to foreign shores?
Seriously, this is an incredibly difficult problem to solve. It's one we need to solve IMO, but I don't feel like anybody is coming up with viable solutions.
Canadian election today...market up 1,600 at open to reinforce Prime Minister's words that last week was a stock buying opportunity for all those workers laid off their jobe. (More layoffs today). He also reassured voters that he is not the devil. That market better not end up 666 today.
Fair Economist,
Everyone willingly went to paradise island, and now it is Lord of the Flies.
If it is someone's financial best interest to stop payment, and everyone else is doing it anyways, then that person is more likely to stop payment than not regardless of earnings. Perhaps mortgages will become recourse loans in the future similar to how credit cards beefed up their recovery with a new bill
Better yet, financial institutions might realize that 6 sigma events are too common, and that in a crisis correlations go to 1
It was closed Monday for Thanksgiving. Many of the bigger stocks are cross listed with NYSE/NASDAQ and therefore before any specific trading on it, there were big gains from Monday's US trading
With all the tools in the Fed and Treasury toolbox and their expansive reach into nearly every global market in the world, they are not satisfied with the short-term looting and plunder. Instead they have to use long term debt and debt rollovers to enslave our children and grandchildren. If you destroy a billion persons just for one day, murder their dreams, what does that make you?
First!
It should be a mushroom cloud.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Just helicopter drop dollars on the fire. We've got enough of them to put it out.
Is that a photo of all the underwater homes that were torched by owners?
Up in smoke, indeed.
Uh, AWESOME.
Indeed burning down all the foreclosed homes in SoCal might be the most cost effective solution to the problem.
It would take a market like this to allow underwater assets to burn.
CR,
Thanks! Best laugh of the last week!
Where there is smoke, there is FIRE.
Now THAT's Currently Smoking Cannibis ! !
Shouting fire in a crowded mortgage securities market?
That's the populace not the banks. If these clowns think I'm going to work my ass off, have the goverment taxes the hell out of me and gives it to the banks so I can borrow it back from them higher intrest rate they're full of shit. I love being bum.
A few days ago I remember seeing a headline something like, "Government Rescuers Search Desvastation for Survivors," and for a moment I thought it was about our banking crisis -- it was really about rescue teams combing Galveston, Texas after the hurricane.
I pity the remaining banks downwind of the blaze.
Equities on fire, credit on ice. Who wins? No one.
Good grief! That smoke cloud looks like a MOAB blast. Shock and awe.
CA really has all - good & bad.
Lifeguard1999 writes:
Where there is smoke, there is FIRE.
I misread that at first as FRE
Yup we could instead put $250 Billion towards rebuilding roads, bridges and water delivery systems, and then put another trillion or so in capitalizing energy investments. That looks like a better use of our money than re-liquefying banks to wash, spin, repeat cycle.
But this is socialism for the rich, the well connected and Wall Street so they can try and continue to sell the 'illusion of prosperity' dream for Americans.
However, the bad news is the American middle class are still on the hook for trillions and your standard of living is likely to go down.
Sorry
Do the wallets burn too or do they have to pick them out of the ashes afterward?
It's the Mad Layout Editor at work! He speaks truth, when the reporters fear to.
On another note, I heard the old Stones song "Baby, you're out of time" on the tube the other day, and it keeps going through my head whenever I read the financial news.
If I lived in CA, fire mitigation techniques around my houses (clearing timber) is the absolute last thing I would do if I had insurance.
"we will not stand down" in Ben's article. Is he referring to himself? Is he under pressure to resign?
MarketWarnings: Bernanke article: We will not stand down, Finance First (economy second?)
"That's the populace not the banks. If these clowns think I'm going to work my ass off, have the goverment taxes the hell out of me and gives it to the banks so I can borrow it back from them higher intrest rate they're full of shit. I love being bum."
This is the problem. I share your attitude and am seeing it spread...slowly...
Why work when work is not valued and when the rewards of your work come in the form of an ultimately doomed currency. The rational man just sits it out (or at least minimizes it's focus as a priority in his life) until the smoke clears.
Elvis: I was thinking the same thing....how many SoCal homeowners would be most pleased if their house "accidentally" burned down...
Anyone read the Goldman Sachs 10Q?
They've got their Level 3 down to $58bn in Aug from $67bn in May. Mind you it's level 3 so that was probably a loss. They've also still got $10bn of level 3 assets, but structured with non-recourse loans so they'll just screw the clients there. $18bn of that $58bn level 3 is in mortgages
Commercial Real Estate backed loans are $14.6bn in Aug down from $19bn in Nov 2007
They've got average bank financing of 6 month maturities. 'Fed will give us whatever we want in any case' (from conf. call)
They seem to be heavy in commodities and treasuries, lightening everywhere else
Can't discuss too much without flooding CR, so I'll leave it at those tidbits
A natural disaster marked the end of So Cal's last downturn...not sure it will work this time.
Cedar shingles soaked in gasoline might replace granite countertops as a California home remodeling favorite.
At first, I thought I was looking at Implode-O-Meter.
how many insurance companies are going to pay for the whole rebuild. Check those policies before you torch your wine tasting room.
Check those policies before you torch your wine tasting room.
gerald
I specifically had the wine tasting room waiver exempted.
"I take a toke.... and all my cares.....go up in smoke"
"up in in smoke......that's where my money goes"
Come on sing along you all know the words !!
Ciao
MS
mykillk
Arson is a common way out of a negative equity mortgage in countries with recourse loans. If for no other reason than to break even.
I've seen a report that detailed increased auto financing losses due to what one assumes to be insurance fraud (lighting car on fire, accidentally shifting out of park and totaling the car, 'theft').
Unlike a mortgage, consumer financing (furniture, cars, credit cards, etc) have been toughened since 2006 I believe at the behest of credit card companies. This is bad on a macroeconomic level because an encumbered consumer will make the recession last longer
Roubini says "sputter", markets shuttered as Paulson stutters.
Roubini Sees Worst Recession in 40 Years, Stock Drop (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Crispy;
"A natural disaster marked the end of So Cal's last downturn...not sure it will work this time."
Oh cr4p! Don't remind me of that!
we could instead put $250 Billion towards rebuilding roads, bridges and water delivery systems,
Ah, the typical slogans. Congratulations on not using the cliched word "infrastructure." But why should we subsidize affluent people in the suburbs who have cars by building them nice new roads and bridges--or subsidize suburbanites who need more water for their lawns or to fill their pools?
Any government-organized transfer of wealth is socialism, even if it's to the poor--which is where it should go, if we're going to have some socialism.
Anybody think Arnie wished he were back in Austria right now?
My wine tasting room is a shanty beside my van DOWN BY THE RIVER. I think its exempt though.
"infrastructure."
Started out as a NATO word in the '60s.
Ah, the typical slogans. Congratulations on not using the cliched word "infrastructure." But why should we subsidize affluent people in the suburbs who have cars by building them nice new roads and bridges--or subsidize suburbanites who need more water for their lawns or to fill their pools?
Suburbanites aren't the only people using the nation's highways and bridges. Or do city dwellers expect to grow all their own food in rooftop gardens? Good luck with that.
Monopoly is fun to play, even when you lose. Roulette is fun to play only when you win. Schwarzenegger is playing Monopoly.
Disclaimer: I think this sucker is still going down
Vince Farrel, chronic bottom caller, is wary to call this a bottom. Oooo the temptation of the inverse-cnbc-indicator!
Farrell: A Bottom? Be Careful Before You Say Yes - CNBC
unit472 writes:
Cedar shingles soaked in gasoline might replace granite countertops as a California home remodeling favorite.
rotflmao
I wonder if the fire is mysteriously 'jumping streets' with solo homes burned down...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
who wants to bet some middle manager starts a fire in the hills behind his house?
Amusing?
No.
Cliffo;
"Any government-organized transfer of wealth is socialism"
Perhaps, but necessary socialism in the case of the commons. I would like to see some repairs to highways and bridges, which would not be a subsidy to affluent suburbanites, but would support the movement of goods. We all benefit from the interstate highway system. Private money would not work for this, it has to be organized by government, unfortunately, with all of the featherbedding and other BS that entails.
kevin: Peter Schiff recently wrote an article where he argued that credit card companies are the next to blow up. His suggestion: Charge your credit card to the max while you can because the government is going to step in and bail you out anyway. Debt forgiveness.
I'm going to use some of my rapidly disintegrating dollars to buy a pitch fork at Home Depot. I'm going to start walking on I 40, headed east.
We'll meet up in Washington.
The frightening thing about a currency collapse are all the stories from Weimar where people would mysteriously start buying tons of obviously useless pianos and other durable goods, and nobody could figure out why.
"Up In Smoke"
A Classic Cheech and Chong tale of two Mexican-Americans just trying to find their way in this great country!
Rick Santelli laughed at the other panelists and said no one in the bond market has any clue what is going to happen next. Everyone is waiting for the UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES.
NYSE is trading stupid right now. 80% up volume on top monday and friday's gains. Commodity producers and utilities are doing ok, steady cash infrastructure too, but it's mostly a reflection of financials having money thrown at them by the Treasury.
Every other exchange is balanced or negative on volume balance. (ignoring those closed Monday which missed out on the rocketship)
Snakeflag,
I'll bring my rifle.
Nothing like playing Shubert and Beethoven as the house burns down. Elegance in decline. Like an impoverished aristocrat wearing his threadbare dinner jacket and monocle as he scavenges holding a garbage pail lid hardly brimming with beet tops and mouldy bread.
Rick Santelli laughed at the other panelists and said no one in the bond market has any clue what is going to happen next.
He probably isn't allowed to say anything drastic.
Crispy;
"I wonder if the fire is mysteriously 'jumping streets' with solo homes burned down..."
Since "jumping streets" is a very real phenomenon, some might get away with it.
Did you watch the pattern of the last big fire in Malibu? It was "leaping tall buildings", so to speak. There were untouched fields of combustibles separating houses that looked like they got nailed by orbital laser weapons.
There are a few people I really like on CNBC
1) Rick Santelli
2) Mark Haines. Especially when he is grumpy
ational interagency fire center has all california fires
National Interagency Fire Center
Meredith Whitney coming on to ask a question at the Goldman conf call is my piece of humour for the day. It's right before the halfway mark.
When her name is announced, the presenter's attitude turns on a dime.
Thanks for the info. Evil..
"heavy into commodities"......
heavily short oil IMO. But not for long methinks.
Ciao
MS
One of the SoCal fires was able to jump across the 8-lane 210 Freeway yesterday. 60 mph gusts from the Santa Ana winds will do that!
I've heard that all it takes is some kindling in the eaves.
km4 writes:
they can try and continue to sell the 'illusion of prosperity' dream for Americans.
Americans seem to be living pretty well and have been doing so for quite some time. A third of Americans pay no income taxes (thanks to those of us that do). The prosperity is no illusion, however much we may argue about the solidity of its foundation. Been to Mexico lately?
mp:
can you point out your post that people keep referencing. I missed it (sorry, I can't stay online 24/7)
and googling "mp" is too hard. too many mp's!
Friend's furniture business still in the toilet. How long before the trillion dollar bank bailout inspires people to buy more armoires?
"There are a few people I really like on CNBC"
The only ones I like are the young, hot women, and only when they are naked.
heavily short oil IMO. But not for long methinks.
Yes. Those b@stards are trying to make a killing again.
Poor people know how to live within their means.
Yes, the smoke here is nasty. It was raining ash yesterday morning. Needless to say the morning run was put on hold.
Nostrovia,
FEW....Fire Equity Extraction
The new jingle mail for So Cal.
Ciao
MS
"unit472 writes:
Indeed burning down all the foreclosed homes in SoCal might be the most cost effective solution to the problem."
Bubblevision says, "It will stimulate the economy! DOW 20,000!"
Sorry FEE....W is next to E on the keyboard.
Ciao
MS
Serf: I get my data news from Forexnews.com
"mykillk writes:
One of the SoCal fires was able to jump across the 8-lane 210 Freeway yesterday. 60 mph gusts from the Santa Ana winds will do that!"
Up north in, in similarly burnable hills, the rural FDs recommend clear space for 50 yards around the house, except for something like iceplant. Because embers and fire can travel far. Few do it.
I talked to a fire dispatcher who lived up in the hills. He had 75 yards of clearance, and a barrel of fire retardant foam ready to go. That's what you need.
"It was raining ash yesterday morning. Needless to say the morning run was put on hold."
Why would that hold up your morning run to 7-11 for smokes?
Ex-CEO Greenberg Urges AIG to Renegotiate $85B Loan or Perish
For those looking for a sustained recovery, here's some food for thought :-
851
What is the end state of all these? I mean BEYOND the depression, BEYOND the change in world order. If someone is trying to forecast into 20 year later, what's the world's economy likely to look like?
I suspect that Emerging Markets, esp in Asia, will collectively overtake the western countries. Think an Asian bloc, EU style.
Bretton Woods 2 will be replaced with 3 major world currencies: US, EU and AU (Asian Union?).
Basic Infrastructure building will continue through out the next 2 century, depression or not. If Earth is to survive, we better have significant Alt Energy growth too.
If you zoom out to the next 20 years, all the nonsense we see now isn't that bad. As long as the world's civilization survives intact, I still see the world economy growing in 2028.
So, with that said, how can a small fry tap into this long term vision? Should I invest in stocks?
Paulson pissed on his territory first and the rest of the economy can just go to hell.
Beaver--I greatly appreciated your comments on the last thread about the OC moving market. Comments like those are why I'm here.
Have to put up with a lot of Obama/McCain crap to get some valuable nuggets.
Bo Dobbs,
LA County Fire Dept does a lot of work in these hills making fire breaks and such. Very well organized. That's why most fires don't burn houses down.
It's getting dicey today though as the Santana's are pretty fierce.
People who live in the foothills and canyons are quite good about clearing kindling, and dry brush.
Nostrovia,
Dr. Munch,
You mean you are not hear for this?
"Why would that hold up your morning run to 7-11 for smokes?
Elvis"
YTL and others:
I can't offer much insight to finance around here, but I can offer this great searching tip:
If you want to search for the comments of a particular person, type in CNTL-F for find,
enter in the person's handle, a space, and the vertical line key that's above the backslash key.
EXAMPLE: "query_tool |"
That takes you to the end of that person's post
Weak market performances today: Reaction to yesterday's massive gains or indication that last week's sell-off is about to resume?
Yes Misean unlike here in SD where if it doesn't have a beer/football/military association it just doesn't get done.
Our fires last year should have not been as bad simply because people here do nothing until it's too late.
Ciao
MS
dontpanic --
So, with that said, how can a small fry tap into this long term vision? Should I invest in stocks?
If you really believe your long-term vision, then I would say buy VWO at regular intervals over the next several years.
For what it is worth, I agree that is likely to be a winning long-term strategy. Emphasis on "long-term".
mykillk: ask again after 3 pm.
Our fires last year should have not been as bad simply because people here do nothing until it's too late.
Ciao
MS
Again, maybe this is on purpose.
mykillk - if it werent for the handout for financials pumping those stocks, the numbers would like terrible. They stink as it is, but this puppy is basically going down. We'll have our up days, but I dont even think last week was a bottom. It will take a while for the economic reality to set in...what will do it will be monthly job loss numbers topping 300k. (double the sept rate)
why are markets going down ? any plausible explanatio
Snakeflag: I'm going to start walking on I 40, headed east.
We'll meet up in Washington.
If you stay on I40 East to the end and then S. College Road you will end up a couple of miles from my house. Stop by and have a few cold ones.
Jim
why are markets going down ? any plausible explanation
Thaksin
I dunno. Maybe fundamentals.
Re today's market: "When I snorted my first line of coke, I felt like a new man. Trouble is, the first thing the new man wanted was another line."
MS,
Yeah. We were even able to help out neighboring counties because LAFD got ours under control quickly.
It's a shame really. A little fire abatement work in spring and summer, isn't that hard. But the ability to sleep during fire season is priceless.
Nostrovia,
Thanks Jim. I'll be thirsty, and I'm sure Republicans are Traitors will have a cold one too.
YTL- This what you were looking for?
mp writes:
CONJURE COMMUNIQUE
Conjure Bag's first discussion paper, "LIBOR, Interbank Lending and The Banking Crisis", is now available at this link:
this link.
mp | 10.12.08 - 11:04 pm | #
"If human life in anything resembling the numbers currently present on Earth is to survive, we better have significant Alt Energy growth too."
Fixed it for you. The planet will do fine whether we're here or not. In truth, if we don't get our collective alternative energy asses in gear, Earth is likely to do a lot better since there will be roughly 80% fewer of us nasty Homo Sapiens running around mucking up the joint.
It's clear to me that in five years or so the dollar will completely collapse. The good thing about the great depression was that we did not have the ability to debase our own currency because of the gold standard. We won't be saved by that now.
What is the small investor to do?
OT for those in NYC, our zombiecon is going to be hitting wall street on sat. hundreds of zombie hotties in banker and worker garb on a wild pub crawl, totally hilarious. zombie banks, here we come.
the path and timing are secret, it's participatory underground art, no voyeurs. here is the signup link with pics from times past. i'll have a brain at the end of rope on a pole if you want to say hi, or eeerrrhhheghh.
ZOMBIECON NYC 2009 IS ON!
The small investor should take his money out, stuff it in his mattress and set up a microlending operation on his street. Become a "Big Man" and soon will be able to afford many wives.
NEMO --
Back in my buy-and-hold days, I put $10K into VWO at $47.30 (pre-split). Early this year I sold at $94.28 (pre-split), and right now it's pre-split number would be $59 and change (price at this moment is $29.24)
Not trying to display my "genius". Just saying wow, what a ride.
Yahoo says the P/E ttm on it is currently 11.92. As with the S&P 500, beware the value trap.
Americans seem to be living pretty well and have been doing so for quite some time. A third of Americans pay no income taxes (thanks to those of us that do). The prosperity is no illusion, however much we may argue about the solidity of its foundation. Been to Mexico lately?
The US is an extremely wealthy and prosperous nation, the problem is people in this country thought they were twice as wealthy as they really were. The idea that a large part of the country was relatively near a comfortable retirement courtesy of their stocks and houses was in fact an illusion.
People are now waking up to the fact that they may have to work 10 to 15 years longer than they expected and that is likely to be a tremendous shock with both economic and social consequences.
Penrod and Sam:
"It's clear to me that in five years or so the dollar will completely collapse. The good thing about the great depression was that we did not have the ability to debase our own currency because of the gold standard. We won't be saved by that now."
Nothing is completely one way or the other. I suspect USD will gradually lose it's influence, just like British Pound did. It'll still be a player, just not the only game in town.
That's why I suspect Asian economies will fare better in the long run.
Because at the end of the day, they're self-sufficient, USA is not.
Apparently, all the King's horses and all the King's men CAN put Humpty together again, after he's fallen off Wall Street.
All these years, we were lied to, as children...just shameful.
To the Beach Boys Shutdown
It happened in Topanga Canyon at Mulholland Drive
Two upside down houses sitting side by side. One owner is lighting matches and the other's flicking his Bic, Sirens are a wailing better get here quick
Burn it up, Burn it up, Housing prices upside down.
anonymous writes:
"The small investor should take his money out, stuff it in his mattress and set up a microlending operation on his street. Become a "Big Man" and soon will be able to afford many wives."
I don't know how one could pay for all of the wives after making the payroll for all the Guidos needed to run collections. The proles cannot pay...
The US is self sufficient - it just needs to learn how to live without cheap Chinese crap.
"Bob Dobbs writes...On another note, I heard the old Stones song "Baby, you're out of time" on the tube the other day, and it keeps going through my head whenever I read the financial news."
Jefferson Airplane--White Rabbit
Traffic--Dear Mr. Fantasy
Humble Pie--Thirty Days in the Hole (as in Jackson Hole, the lyrics are about a drug binge so they fit the credit bubble).
I request that our resident Youtubers create suitable Bernanke/Paulson videos.
Thank you.
MS,
That report was circa Aug 2008. If anything the decline in oil prices could be Goldman Sachs alone shifting its positions
People are now waking up to the fact that they may have to work 10 to 15 years longer than they expected
Work? I don't want to work. I want a pony!
Elvis-
I thought about that last year but remember where the market was and how people just wouldn't or couldn't see anything "bad" about it.
The problems with the SD fires were about brush removal and stupid people who stayed too long and had to be rescued...thus diverting needed resources. Having said that I do think it could have been minimized but it was pretty much out of control by Sunday evening. We left at 2am Monday morning.....
Ciao
MS
Speed writes:
The US is self sufficient - it just needs to learn how to live without cheap Chinese crap.
Speed | 10.14.08 - 2:05 pm | #
I don't think so. Without (fake) finance's contribution to USA's GDP, what does US produce?
Just looking at OIL alone should be obvious that US is not self-sufficient, not even close.
Yesterday a poster named Popeye was gloating heavily on wins from the uptick. It was obvious, right?
Halfway through today we're dead flat.
It was easy to speak up when the market was rolling. It would take some b*lls to call a direction now.
Popeye? Whither thou?
RANT ON
here back in europe we have a very fragmented car market because of many countries with different sets of car equipment levels. so i went to car dealer to buy a car. and even tough there is a recession coming i could not get the colour which i wanted and had to pay premium for a black metalic colour. anyway, a colleagues of mine are waiting 4 month for a seat and 3 months for an audi. why? because we have 27 countries in eu with its own importers with various equipment for each single country. and because of this market fragmentation and buirokratic regulations i feel like its all 80s again and we are waiting to buy a car weeks/months like we would live in communismus.
at the end i heard a very strange thing. that one has to wait 18 months for a volkswagen touareg? and they call this a recession?
RANT OFF
I think he's busy farting through silk at the moment.
The US is self sufficient - it just needs to learn how to live without cheap Chinese crap.
Our dependence on oil is too lopsided. While we may only consume 5%-10% more than we produce, it is so skewed toward oil that we're still in a situation where our entire economy could collapse if there was some dramatic cut off in supply.
I'm still waiting for Bernanke to tweak that printer to start pumping out oil and prove that the Federal Reserve isn't the ultimate builder of "Potemkin Villages" as Vockler likes to say.
Would everyone please stop with the free ponies? The bailout bill gives everyone a free bicycle - isn't that enough?!
PS: volkswagen touareg are being produced in slovakia together with half the porsche cheyenne production ...
Up in smoke may also, by the end of the day, be how we refer to yesterday's rally.
Conjure:
Please explain how LIBOR can be irrelevant if cc and ARM's are tied to it.
Thanks.
I thought the Dow was only allowed to go up?
Eastside writes:
Would everyone please stop with the free ponies? The bailout bill gives everyone a free bicycle - isn't that enough?!
Can't eat bicycles.
Down goes Frazier
Down goes Frazier
damon-
It's not a true index...it's more like a survey. However trillions of debt are priced from it.
Think ADP survey on Job's.....it's whatever they want it to be.
Ciao
MS
This crisis, and "rescue plan" was forseen...
A Worldwide Economic Stimulus Plan
By JEFFREY E. GARTEN
Published: January 11, 2003
- Free Preview - The New York Times res=9F03E4D71F3EF932A25752C0A9659C8B63
Not One Cent;
A little Traffic for you:
The percentage you're paying is too high priced
While you're living beyond all your means
And the man in the suit has just bought a new yacht
From the profit he made on your dreams
But today you just read that the man was shot dead
By a gun that didn't make any noise
But it wasn't the bullet that laid him to rest
Was the low mark of well-heeled boys
both down red red
I already got my free pony. And, I think Jaswant got his, too. I'm just afraid that when it is late and he is lonely, that pony will look awfully cute and .... Well, wait, I'm sure Jaswant R. Jain wouldn't do that..As for me, I built my pony a nice corral and he likes it.
"Work? I don't want to work. I want a pony!"
You can get a job herding the ponies of Wall Street bankers.
Rut Roh....popeye...got iron?
People are now waking up to the fact that they may have to work 10 to 15 years longer than they expected and that is likely to be a tremendous shock with both economic and social consequences.
Not arguing with a word you say. But considering that life expectancy is 15 years higher than when Social Security was signed into law and about 25 years more than it was a century ago, the expectation of having to work an additional 10 years isn't all that unreasonable on its face.
And societal expectations can and do change quickly, when they need to. I suspect there weren't too many people in 1935 America who considered an immediate return to the prosperity of the late '20s their God-given right.
We're in for another such societal reconditioning, I suspect. And a long overdue one, too.
Market crested the hill - brakes not working
MS:
I understand the arbitrary nature of the survay. What I'm trying to get my teeth around is Conjure's stating that it's irrelevant.
I understand CBs replacing interbank lending with lower rates, but debt holders are still getting raked over the coals if LIBOR remains elevated. How is this irrelevant to the economic discussion?
Last week stern went down, but yesterday the bow popped up. Now the water is spreading throughout we're arighted and settling. As long as the keel doesn't turn on us.
revro whined: "at the end i heard a very strange thing. that one has to wait 18 months for a volkswagen touareg?"
Wow! Y'all still have car dealers in business?
Universal Economy as I thought I knew:
Apparently, neither of the above is happening despite world governments throwing trillions at the problem.
I must be missing something?
"It would take some b*lls to call a direction now."
I believe this rally has run out of steam.
I'll put my money where my mouth is too, as I went 2-3% on UYG puts at 6$ that expire Friday.
I'll trade you my free pony for your hay.
Life expectancy may have increased but not necessarily health. A 70 year old man today is no different than a 70 year old man in 1940 except that there are antibiotics, defibrillators and other stuff around today that weren't then.
Sorry for not posting earlier, but if anyone else was playing along with the markets today an ugly close is in the cards. Volume was looking bad about 1:40, and had steadily declined across all exchanges with the NYSE capitulating after lunch.
Probably finish the week down below Friday's open if the surveys/reports are bad too
This crisis, and "rescue plan" was forseen...
A Worldwide Economic Stimulus Plan
If pumping easy money into local economies destroys them, then the logical fix is to pump easy money in the the global economy.
Our government officials and economic bureaucrats have one golden hammer in their arsenal, and they're going to beat everything with it until everything is dead.
Sm_landlord, good choice.
Well, there it is, Paulson's contrived funny money infusion to restart the status quo hits another iceberg.
Economic considerations coming back into play? Is it possible that the market is trading on fundamentals again?
Captain, all guns on deck ready to fire sir.
Fire.
Short sir, short.
Reload.
We're out of ammo sir.
It's irrelevant simply because it tracks interbank lending....they are not doing that now or will be in the future. It just happens that many debt instruments are priced from it.
There is not much more explanation to give.
Ciao
MS
It takes no balls to call direction right now. It takes balls to have patience and wait until there is some certainty in the market. But that means, you can't have fun yelling "black jack" when you get a winning hand.
ok
i have not read the thread yet
(cant keep up!)
but if CSC hasnt made a comment or joke yet im gonna be very disappointed
From outer space, they can see millions of illegal aliens migrating away from the epicenter of the fire towards Mexico.
Just wishful thinking I guess.
Anonymous suggests that the small investor set up a microlending shop on one's street, and "be able to afford many wives".
As appealing as this may sound..I wonder how many of the "made my stack already" crowd would find that pursuit interesting? (I mean the lending, not the many wives part).
Would it not be akin to running a pawn shop, only without all the interesting gadgets to play with?
Has anyone thought this through a bit, and would be willing to comment?
WTF is happening in equities ?
no reason for it to go down like this ?
PPT shorting ?
Elvis,
you don't have hands in blackjack. As for patience, I've waited since July to go long at the end of October. Chill ma
1) Foreign govt buy bonds to keep their money cheap
2) Cap gold
3) Change cpi methodology
All in the name of monetary stability
The start of a new bull market!
-- CNBC 10.14.08
I'll trade you my free pony for your hay.
LOL. Had a coworker actually offer me a free pony the other day. He pointed out that "Free ponies aren't free."
Paulson: "The market is down today!"
Bernanke: "Inconceivable!"
WTF is happening in equities ?
no reason for it to go down like this ?
PPT shorting ?
PPT got sick of being a government tool and decided to mutiny and go short.
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
Bloomberg's ted spread:
Value: N.A.
Change: N.A.
High: N.A.
Low: N.A.
Now with the government guarantees, has bloomberg decided that the TED spread is no longer trackable?
Wheels coming off this bus fast...
Peter Schiff recently wrote an article where he argued that credit card companies are the next to blow up. His suggestion: Charge your credit card to the max while you can because the government is going to step in and bail you out anyway.
How disappointing this sentiment is. This kind of situational ethics (everybody else is doing it) is what got us into this mess.
C'mon, people. We are not animals. Do the right thing.
Here's a nifty idea, pump the workers pay to living wages so they can pay their debt.
"As for patience, I've waited since July to go long at the end of October. Chill man"
That is serious patience. Sorry to doubt you, if I did.
"no reason for it to go down like this ?"
You must new here.
The reasons to go down FAR outweigh reasons to go up.
I mean seriously you got almost 1K points yesterday and you think it's just going to continue?
Ciao
MS
query_tool,
Please explain the value trap?
Funny money is exactly what it is...
The 250 billion has already been lost. These companies can barely stay in business with the money, let alone pay off their debts with it. Nationalizing these companies just makes the goings on even less transparent to the taxpayer. God help us.
Thaksin,
There's many reasons why this was never going to be a good week. Lot of big economic reports. Options Friday. Got too out of sync with other global markets, wasted money rallying insignificant stocks too. Strikes, pending strikes, and layoffs.
It is all about the consumer and the credit market. Both are encumbered for the foreseeable future, and managers can't grind out a rally until they stop getting slapped by the statistics
C'mon, people. We are not animals.
Speak for yourself. I'm barking as I type this. And I hear a meowing coming from the general direction of the market.
..never mind; bloomberg's ted spread just refreshed. Going down. Now at 4.36.
Thaksin writes:
WTF is happening in equities ?
no reason for it to go down like this ?
Your uncle has removed virtually all the short-side risk from the market.
hedge funds starting selling to get money for 10/21/08? settling day for lehmans
Nasdaq is tanking...finally some realism.
my TED shows back to 4.37 from low of 4.25 today.
WTF is happening in equities ?
no reason for it to go down like this ?
You must be new here.
Smart Money has a little thingy that shows the sell-off by sector:
Online Investing: Stocks, Personal Finance & Mutual Funds at SmartMoney.com
Top right, under the chart.
I haven't seen anyone talk about
Sovereign Bank corp:
MarketWatch.com
Another bank gone.
On the eve of the bailout, SOV is bought out for
Look out below...
5% off sound about right for the close?
10 yr is gettng wiped out...i sure hope PIMPco gets taken to the cleaners
It takes balls to have patience and wait until there is some certainty in the market.
god bless you elvis, i needed that.
I think looking at Schiff can go both ways. Why should the prudent continue to subsidize the reckless? It appears those who continue to make debt service payments may be the true lemmings.
If I've worked my tail off and saved and understand what is happening and understand I will continue to pay a disproportionate share of the bill, why not lever-up and go to the mattresses?
Thaksin wondered: "WTF is happening in equities ?
no reason for it to go down like this ?"
I'm trying to think of a reason why they should go up.
No. Nothing yet....
gabyjan,
I would say withdrawals from commodities (due to 10Q report releases, and knowledge of a slowing economy encouraged an avalanche of selling there) went a long way towards rounding up that funding. AIG increasing its loan to $122bn also goes a long way to meeting the $366bn of settling to be done (note some will be netted out, but not the 98+% that aleablog/DTCC were misleading people to believe). Also don't forget $125bn from the bed coming at an opportune time winkwink*
Now time to prepare for WaMu
What's up with SRS? Did a homebuilder die?
sm_landlord writes:
Cliffo;
"Any government-organized transfer of wealth is socialism"
respectfully dis-agree
tansfer of wealth to the corporations is FASCISM
sharing the profits with workers in the form of public education, health care, roads, parks, etc is what some call socialism
i call it social democracy
Bond yields are up, they are going to be in big trouble now.
"do the right thing"...coming right up, more Monopoly money!!
just a little pinprick now...Ahhhhh!
the recession's receeding
what's that distant smoke on the horizon?
Guest, see prosper.com. I didn't like the odds even before the recession.
gabyjan writes:
Insurance Journal - Page Not Found 94631.htm
Interesting. They are probably just mad that they can't take take spa vacations on the company any more .
Ah, yahoo has trotted out the old canard...profit taking.
OK.
Nostrovia,
People don't need more stinkin' credit. They need living wages. Credit cards replaced living wages and the parasitical top 1% live off the indentured debt laborers. Paulson & Bernanke's job is to restart the status quo.
Also, on Obama's foreclosure moratorium - will renters get a three month moratorium as well?
Rob Dawg writes:
Can't eat bicycles.
Sure you can. They're just not very nutritious:
Michel Lotito - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
From AP on Yahoo front page..
"Wall Street fell Tuesday after investors initially reacted enthusiastically to the U.S. government's plans to spend $250 billion to buy stock in private banks only to later book profits from the previous day's massive advance."
Translation:
The big stacks are taking their money off the table. The game is getting shorthanded with only shortstacks left to fight for the meager remains.
Nice Floyd reference, Anonymous...
RE: SOV
I think it was an FDIC forced deal.
SOV was heavily invested in GSEs. The purchase price was not at what I would call a premium.
.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
gabyjan,
Now time to prepare for WaMu
Please elaborate re: prep for WaMu
MBS market UGLY and so is the TED spread(4.406). Risk is increasing in the credit markets...
How disappointing this sentiment is. This kind of situational ethics (everybody else is doing it) is what got us into this mess.
C'mon, people. We are not animals. Do the right thing.
What is the right thing to do?
Support state sponsored enslavement to financial predators?
Hope you don't mind if I sit this one out.
My words but a whisper your debt a work-out.
The news makes you feel but it cant make you think.
Your scores in the gutter your price in the drink.
So you ride yourselves over the fields and
You make all your Kafkaesque deals and
Your loan men dont know how it feels to be thick as a brick.
And the sand-castle values are all swept away in
The tidal destruction
The moral melee.
The seismic retreat rings the close of play as the last wave uncovers
The unsuited prey.
But your hummers are worn at the wheels and
Your credit cards starting to squeal and
Your loan men don't know how it feels to be thick as a brick.
I don't see any way out of this mess except to eat the rich. The super-rich must go.
Kevin Anthoney writes:
Rob Dawg writes:
Can't eat bicycles.
Sure you can. They're just not very nutritious:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Lotito
Man, this is one tough crowd. It was a joke.
Saddens me that no one laughed. Ponies are a long running meme at CR.
Value Trap
A stock looks attractive by some conventional valuation measurement, such as the P/E ratio...... Until the bottom drops out of the "E".
But that's pretty simplistic. Google "value trap".
Why should the prudent continue to subsidize the reckless?
It's an integrity thing.
Uhm, they're gonna need more digits on the debt clock.
Not one cent:
Been to Prosper.com already, maybe it was on your suggestion (few days ago). I'm wondering what the profile is of the person that lends that money. Prosper has put an admin layer between the lender and the lendee - bank back-office functions.
The micro-lender idea is different. It's mano-a-mano, close quarters with the neighbors. Totally different social dimensions. Trying to imagine what that might be like.
Hoping for some repartee.
Life expectancy may have increased but not necessarily health. A 70 year old man today is no different than a 70 year old man in 1940 except that there are antibiotics, defibrillators and other stuff around today that weren't then.
That statement is so misguided that I don't know where to start.
I know 65- and 70-year olds who are marathon runners, skydivers, private pilots, biotechnology researchers. A lot of them have the mental and physical stamina of people half their age.
How many 70-year-olds do you think fit any of those descriptions in 1970, much less 1940?
I've always thought that by the time I hit 65, my generation would look at retiring at that age the same way today's baby boomers look at the concept of retiring at 50 ... something you'd do if you've hit it rich or wanted to take up a second career, but not what we'd consider the "default" option.
If anything, maybe now that mind-shift will come about in the next 10 years instead of in the next 30.
Where's the PPT ? I unloaded my SRS in anticipation and all I get is a no show.
Dawg don't feel bad you got three or four laughs out of me in the past few days.
thank you evilhenry. wamu next thursay that ought to be interesting. cant find daily listing of companies having exposure to wamu. lehman had one.
i dont do the market,did one time stock went down got rid of it. im not a good sport. also reason i dont buy lottery tickets.
I don't see any way out of this mess except to eat the rich. The super-rich must go.
Maybe a more nuanced view is needed (even if you're not being serious).
Maybe the problem isn't rich people per se, but people who get rich not by creating wealth, but by using deception and government manipulation to steal the wealth of those who legitimately worked to create it.
Rob Dawg,
"Saddens me that no one laughed."
I got a chuckle, but I'm debugging a VPN routing bug right now...Hard for me to LOL when working on things like this.
Nostrovia,
How is a righteous man to remain moral under state sponsored moral turpitude?
Having an allegience higher than the state. Having a loyalty to his soul and the continual self knowledge of his conduct.
Serenity within the maelstrom. Forever may rust and moth corrupt, but a steely soul is beyond its touch.
I should add that the time to be afraid of the value trap is when the price of the stock has recently declined......
Where is popeye(aka Sebastian) at? licking his wounds?
It pisses me off that an enormous amount of my life is spent laboring for peanuts hoping to save and have a few good healthy years to enjoy my life. And here these carnival barkers, Bernanke, Paulson, and Bush/Congress gleefully throw my future earnings and retirement into the inferno THEY DEREGULATED. They've turned my hard-earned labor into funny money. Screw the status quo.
Why should the prudent continue to subsidize the reckless?
Because reckless people vote too.
How many 70-year-olds do you think fit any of those descriptions in 1970, much less 1940?
Huh? Why do you think there WEREN'T 70-year-olds doing strenuous things in 1940?
They probably weren't white-collar investors running marathons, sure. They were probably chopping wood and milking cows.
Calm down people, PPT intervention is not scheduled until 3 PM.
I expected one more up day before going short again so I am hoping that I'm right on this.
Because reckless people vote too.
Maybe there was a reason that non-landowners weren't allowed to vote back in the day...
Guest-better yet try some fractional reserve lending like the banks...of course, unlike the banks, that would get you a few years for conterfeiting.
C&C, pop I, eye pod?
I don't see any way out of this mess except to eat the rich. The super-rich must go.
Eat the rich and you'll get gout.
What is the right thing to do?
Same as always. Live your values. Trust that everything happens for a reason. Everything.
heavily short oil IMO. But not for long methinks.
MS | 10.14.08 - 1:41 pm | #
No doubt about it.
builder bob I hope your right about 3pm. I want more SDS!
mortgage rates backed up to 6.20...treasuries rising is no help. Oh well, spend a few hudnred billion then institute cram sdowns and maybe we will see 8.
There is no free lunch.
I'm thinking it's time to leave the equity markets behind, unless you can afford to trade intra-day.
Bond market, you can earn 8.3% on an Amgen bond due 2011. Drilling companies like Nabors and Transocean are above 10%
The only issues ready to test the market this week, are all on Friday:
California $4bn, Conneticut $424mn, Massachussetts Transport $350mn, Missouri Health & Edn $190mn, NYC $300mn, Ohio $375mn, Pennsylvania Turnpike $325mn
Pennsylvania had to back out of a another toll/privatization deal on another road before due to the bond market.
ac,
"Maybe the problem isn't rich people per se, but people who get rich not by creating wealth, but by using deception and government manipulation to steal the wealth of those who legitimately worked to create it."
Ding, ding, ding! If I could go back in time, I'd kill Hamilton.
Nostrovia,
Maybe the problem isn't rich people per se, but people who get rich not by creating wealth, but by using deception and government manipulation to steal the wealth of those who legitimately worked to create it.
Well, where do you stop with that definition? A woman who works 12 hours a day as a waitress for a below-subsistence wage and shitty tips probably would think that half the people who routinely post here fit that description. That you do nothing but put your wingtips on your desks and punch computer buttons to game the stock market and make thousands a week.
Everyone thinks they "work hard," even the guys who spend half the year at resorts. So what's the definition of "creating wealth"?
I think gabyjan is on to something there...
Makes sense that they pushed it up for the coming cash "needs".
Ciao
MS
Please take Required Doctor prescribed Meds before looking at this PDF!
It is rather startling:
http://www.cumber.com/home/Factors.pdf
Guest, the micro-lender is an old idea. It's when you lend your tools to the neighbor and he doesn't return them, and when you lend $100 to your sister-in-law and she doesn't repay it.
The focus should be on creating value, with wealth following that. If wealth is created without value, then it is artificial.
i have decided that i like the "robber barons"of the 1890's much better than these "robbers". the barons had greed but they also had guilt. these have no quilt dont think they will get it anytime. and everytime i hear about tax cuts for the rich (people and corperations)i want to yell no they have no quilt ye
t.
just my opinio
JoGa,
WaMu the holding company went bankrupt and is facing class action lawsuits due to fraud in lending. Good chance of their bonds being worth pennies on the dollar, which means high CDS payouts. They should be smaller than Lehman, but it's one more wound to some hurting managers. Not clear how/when their covered bonds will be triggered, or if they followed to JP Morgan.
When folks here at CR and all over USA are taking it light due to yesterdays sucker rally...chinese are getting ready for a bigger war
Michelle Malkin » Chinese sovereign wealth fund wants a bite of Crap Sandwich 2.0
"That you do nothing but put your wingtips on your desks and punch computer buttons to game the stock market and make thousands a week."
BHAHAHAHHA
And there she goes....down 250 in a flash...
The focus should be on creating value, with wealth following that. If wealth is created without value, then it is artificial.
Builder Bob | 10.14.08 - 2:47 pm | #
That's exactly right, Bob.
Guest Re: Prosper.com
Only if the US Government backs it like the other banks...
I just feel that you have to make TONS of loans over a short period of time for it to work. The longer you have a loan outstanding in this environment, the greater the risk of default...
NOw if the US GOVT baked every single prosper.com loan, now we're talking...
So... what happens in 2011 when those option ARMs come due for resets? What happens with the derivatives and MBS' tied to those time bombs? What happens to organizations holding those pieces of paper? Given the amount of loans that could go bad, and securities that could become worthless all over again, I can't imagine what kind of bank bailout would be possible the next time around.
This assumes that mass action isn't taken to convert those ARMs to fixed-rate mortgages, or that the MBS' and derivatives aren't unwound or otherwise made to disappear before time's up, of course.
All together now say it! KLONK! (that was yesterday's rally spanking its head on the bottom of the glass bottom boat this morning. It is now slowly sinking to the real bottom (of the ocean.)
Mook, human physiology has not changed since social security and yes there are many 70 year olds who can and want to continue working but they are not generally employed in physically demanding occupations.
One could argue the average American is in poorer health today at age 70 than his grandparents. If you look at photographs of people in the 1930's you won't see anything like the number of fat people as you do today.
People didn't jog or go to the gym to stay fit, their daily lives made them so.
We live longer today because medicine
has advanced not because we are 'healthier'.
ring
ring ring
"will AIG toes please pick up the white courtesy phone..."
"Is there any reason why the American people should be taxed to guarantee the debts of banks, any more than they should be taxed to guarantee the debts of other institutions, including merchants, the industries, and the mills of the country?" Senator Carter Glass, Author of the Banking Act of 1933
Sorry, "backed" not "baked", though I might not be too far off there either...
limbo time....how low can you go?
Sm_landlord, Tullerific.
Mark Bialkowski
That's why if housing doesn't bottom swiftly, there is at least a 4 year overhang from this point of losses/fear
Well, where do you stop with that definition? A woman who works 12 hours a day as a waitress for a below-subsistence wage and shitty tips probably would think that half the people who routinely post here fit that description. That you do nothing but put your wingtips on your desks and punch computer buttons to game the stock market and make thousands a week.
Everyone thinks they "work hard," even the guys who spend half the year at resorts. So what's the definition of "creating wealth"?
Well I think the focus should be less on the value of work (for the sake of addressing our current problems) and more on the focus of how wealth moves through the system.
Specifically, I don't go around telling people what a great deal stocks and bonds and real estate are so I can knowingly sell them something for twice what it's worth.
I get paid well simply because the (real) work I do currently is economically valuable (so I'm told).
I think there's a pretty clear delineation between that and going on CNBC to make false claims about the value of certain assets in order to use them to "legally" reach into peoples' 401k plans and in effect rob them.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
JoGa,
WaMu the holding company went bankrupt [...] of if they followed to JP Morgan.
Thanks.
After the BS reprice, have a feeling
JP made sure that will not happen again.
Thaksin writes:
WTF is happening in equities ?
Um, they pulled all the suckers back into the markets, now they're taking all their money.
You mean, other than that?
Wall street needs to be in rehab, but as with Mark Foley, nothing will change.
Now we cooking with grease. Back to Thursday afternoon... and almost no technical support for Nasdaq below 1750.
More than a trillion burned since Thursday and it bought us three days.
Rob Dawg writes:
Man, this is one tough crowd. It was a joke.
Saddens me that no one laughed. Ponies are a long running meme at CR.
Not when they're dead!
Ps I laughed, honest!
unit472,
"One could argue the average American is in poorer health today at age 70 than his grandparents. If you look at photographs of people in the 1930's you won't see anything like the number of fat people as you do today.
People didn't jog or go to the gym to stay fit, their daily lives made them so."
You might have missed those unfiltered smokes the hanged fire with.
By 1960, the emphazema was starting to kick in.
Nostrovia,
Sorry Rob Dawg, I was busy reheating some squirrel stew for lunch and missed your post.
Do you want fries with your next bailout, sir?
I'm close to advising friends and family to stop making debt payments.
I'm thinking there's more honor in standing and facing the apocalypse than steadfastly taking it in the ass in the name of "integrity" and feeling good about oneself while getting raped.
It might actually be better for our grandchildren too. Pay now vs. pay later.
ac at 239
word
i, we, some others, arent negative on the rich who are creators, entrepreneurs, investors, business people who sell products and deliver needed services
those that make a huge pile of money bringing to market a huge innovation are ok too
its the people who make obscene amounts of money, incomprehensible amounts of money raping the system and shuffling paper or promoting and profiting from unnecessary wars... that get my ire
In the long-run, we are all debt
Here's a nifty idea, pump the workers pay to living wages so they can pay their debt.
rps | 10.14.08 - 2:26 pm | #
Over 2 months ago, I suggested wage inflation to stabilize home prices, no one thought it a good idea until you.
Man, this is one tough crowd. It was a joke.
Saddens me that no one laughed. Ponies are a long running meme at CR.
WTF...
Do you think we're joking about this pony thing?
Comrades,
The Politburo of California has ordered all homeowners to torch their homes and file the insurance claim. The economic problem with the banks will now be a problem for the insurance industry. The bank economic problem for the banks has been solved.
The NASDAQ is speeding along nicely, thank you very much...
Poniez! Coinz! Bailoutz! Squirellz!
Itsallgood. Thanks to all for the reality anchors.
Coming attractions... squirrel soup, big budget musicals starring Renee Zellweger, new boardgame sensation sweeping the nation, yoyo tournaments, marathon dances, cheerful ditties on radio and barbed wire fences on Park Avenue.
ac at 239
word
i, we, some others, arent negative on the rich who are creators, entrepreneurs, investors, business people who sell products and deliver needed services
I got no problem with Steve Jobs and Bill Gates being rich.
Jim Cramer and Hank Paulson on the other hand...
Damn ac,
I just spit my corn squeezin's all over my boiled pingeon.
Nostrovia,
417 visitors only ?
Lotsa people assumed market would rally nicely ?
just a few of my CR faves:
we are all ___ now
free ponys
whocouldanode
born and bred dopes
LFKAJ
squirrels
got glod
COINS!
inverted hammer thingy
"The focus should be on creating value, with wealth following that. If wealth is created without value, then it is artificial."
Wealth is always a promise for tomorrow; that's what money is and that's what debt is and that's what all other valuable items are. When the promise goes sour, well, that's where we are right now. And the 'fix' of the era seems to be: throw more promises at it.
It is true that they will be writing about these days years from now.
VIX 'n' VXN those evil twins gettin' rowdy.
Speed writes:
Paulson: "The market is down today!"
Bernanke: "Inconceivable!"
Speed | 10.14.08 - 2:25 pm |
"Mr. Bernake, I do not think that word means what you think it does...."
Can we go long on VIX?
ac
greed is needed and so is guilt.
this group of robbers do not have guilt. gates buffett had/have some of both.
at least thats what i think
everybody better grow a beard -- in the bright future, that's the only way you'll get seconds.
personal anecdote. DW and i went camping this weekend, bushwacked in the nearby large Bear Mt. State Park a couple of miles to an unauthorized campsite.
while hiking around, deeper and deeper, i found older campsites with a few faded generic beer cans. remember those?
i also found someone's bug out survival stash, that a bear had also found. leaving any food in a hidden stash is pretty goofy.
fantastic fall colors and time away from reality trumped it all!
Out til 2010,
You can buy (American style) options via the CBOE, now part of the CME group, on the VIX/VXN
gates buffett had/have some of both.
at least thats what i think
At least they are giving it away now, or some of it. You can't take it with you.
I'm close to advising friends and family to stop making debt payments.
Don't go there. Credibility and trust are going to be in very short supply. Don't encourage people to reduce it. People who can pay debts should continue. For those who can't there are legal ways out - bankruptcy, and in some cases default and return of collateral. If the loans are for things where there are fraud issues (which includes many houses) join a lawsuit and pay into escrow accounts.
Mook, human physiology has not changed since social security and yes there are many 70 year olds who can and want to continue working but they are not generally employed in physically demanding occupations.
But that's just it. Our economy is no longer based on "physically demanding occupations" for the most part. It's service-based and knowledge-based.
Therefore, tomorrow's crop of 65-year-olds are far better positioned to continue to add value to the economy (and continue to be paid well for doing so) than those 65-year-olds a half-century ago.
If we were all still getting paid based on the number of widgets we cranked out per hour, I'd be counting down the days until I turned 65, too.
Here's a nifty idea, pump the workers pay to living wages so they can pay their debt.
rps | 10.14.08 - 2:26 pm | #
Over 2 months ago, I suggested wage inflation to stabilize home prices, no one thought it a good idea until you.
Mel
How? This is the hardest problem facing governments throughout history.
The idea of handing out dollars to accomplish this simply destroys the dollar and undermines the stability of the financial system.
I would argue that this method of attempting to use inflation as a replacement for real wealth creation is at the root of all our problems and is the surest path to poverty.
Pieces of paper are not wealth. Control over and influence over productive industry are wealth. Handing out pieces of paper to workers does not give them more control over productive industry, it merely dissociates the dollar with control over productive industry.
How do you convince industry to give workers more wealth with out having them flee to foreign shores?
Seriously, this is an incredibly difficult problem to solve. It's one we need to solve IMO, but I don't feel like anybody is coming up with viable solutions.
Can we go long on VIX?
Sure, there's futures and option on it.
I actually made money selling VIX puts, way back in late winter '07. Shoulda sold a shitload more.
this group might try to take it with them or they just wont go.
...."the beatings will continue, until morale improves"
Everyone take their Dramamine, it's 3 PM...
still not sure why no one cares that the buffett got a deal that was at least twice as good as ours...
is our pile of money no good?
how can our nobel prize winning ( sorry almost kid of nobel prize) boy Krugman support these awful terms?
Intel, save capitalism in 65 minutes.
thx bai
I'm close to advising friends and family to stop making debt payments.
When the world is short credibility, it's time to go long.
Canadian election today...market up 1,600 at open to reinforce Prime Minister's words that last week was a stock buying opportunity for all those workers laid off their jobe. (More layoffs today). He also reassured voters that he is not the devil. That market better not end up 666 today.
Death, taxes and bailouts
Anybody got a spare Kontratieff winter coat? Mine shrank.
Out til 2010 writes:
"Can we go long on VIX?"
Might be a little late for that. Just say'i
Fair Economist,
Everyone willingly went to paradise island, and now it is Lord of the Flies.
If it is someone's financial best interest to stop payment, and everyone else is doing it anyways, then that person is more likely to stop payment than not regardless of earnings. Perhaps mortgages will become recourse loans in the future similar to how credit cards beefed up their recovery with a new bill
Better yet, financial institutions might realize that 6 sigma events are too common, and that in a crisis correlations go to 1
TEDSPD - Stock Quote for TED Spread - TEDSPD Stock price - real time stock quote for TED Spread
TED = 4.4
just thought of something. if it is hedgies selling then ppt will be buying right?
Anonymous,
re: Canadian market
It was closed Monday for Thanksgiving. Many of the bigger stocks are cross listed with NYSE/NASDAQ and therefore before any specific trading on it, there were big gains from Monday's US trading
EvilHenryPaulson;
We're all six-sigma now...
(ducks)
With all the tools in the Fed and Treasury toolbox and their expansive reach into nearly every global market in the world, they are not satisfied with the short-term looting and plunder. Instead they have to use long term debt and debt rollovers to enslave our children and grandchildren. If you destroy a billion persons just for one day, murder their dreams, what does that make you?
that is some weird arse stuff you are talkin bout at 3pm...what was with that spike?
Fair Economist:
"Don't go there."
I am mostly venting...mostly. An inflection point may be nearing where the prudent capitulate.