state and local govt spending growth is or will soon be slowing...and perhaps contracting. Come January, fed govt spending will be shrinking in almost every area, save for the bailout. Not sure how that gets added to GDP. But Im sure Sebastian will show up to cheer it. Hey look! Growth!
I just love early Christmas presents
from our uncle. They've taken all the risk out of the short-side trade. Now this market can trade on its own fundamentals. And they aren't very good.
This will eventually be known as the great urban depression. We were a rural country 70 years ago--most capable of sustaining themselves. This one will be so much worse Of course, Scrooge will be rich.
AND HISTORIANS WILL NOTE THAT WE PISSED AWAY THE WEALTH OF A NATION ON CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS. Mad Max meet Goldman Sachs. Maybe if pour about 5 trillion into the black hole...ahhh forget it.
Mel writes:
This will eventually be known as the great urban depression. We were a rural country 70 years ago--most capable of sustaining themselves. This one will be so much worse Of course, Scrooge will be rich.
Wow does that ever tie together years of comments. First, while we are now an "urban nation" even back then we were an "interconnected nation." That's why we had things like "Okie" migrations. It wasn't crop failures so much as a dependency failure.
Don't believe me? Wait for beef prices starting this winter.
Anyway, there's a reason I call my blog "exurban nation." Kunstler calls his clusterfuck nation. You brought up urban nation.
It amuses me to read the theories of our returning to the huddled masses of the past.
China, the world's second-largest energy user, increased crude-oil imports to a record last month, taking advantage of falling prices, as domestic refining capacity climbed.
Crude imports surged 46 percent to 20 million metric tons or 4.87 million barrels a day in September from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg's calculations based on figures provided by the Beijing-based Customs General Administration of China on its Web site today. August purchases were 15.65 million tons. ...
Nanook, you're right no business is recession proof. Hopefully, the people that work for that business know that and will work hard to make that business suceed. I don't see that though, working with young people today, they want everything handed to them. After all, they are the generation where they were protected and told they were "doing a good job" when they actually were f*ck ups.
YLSP writes:
Yellen Three Years Ago: if a sizable reversal in house prices were to occur, it probably would affect the economy mainly through the lagged effects of declines in wealth and increases in interest rates, rather than through widespread financial disruptions
How does someone so manifestly incompetent keep her job? Oh, right. Government worker. Never mind.
"This will eventually be known as the great urban depression. We were a rural country 70 years ago--most capable of sustaining themselves. This one will be so much worse Of course, Scrooge will be rich."
My mom was living in the country during the last depression -- a teenager on her own, working as a mother's helper or a ranch cook. She ate and had a place to sleep, but that was it. The money was nothing.
If this was like the last depression, yes, there'd be trouble getting food into the cities. But it won't be. Last Depression we had Herbert Hoover and no history of activist government.
This time, it would be different. People won't be allowed to starve, even under John McCain. Political suicide, whatever your economic dogma.
wifey turned me on to Nick and Nora. I got a crush on Ms. Loy.
its too bad that most people with those huddled masses theories, and a return to the good old agrarian past assume they will be alive to experience them. I have a suspicion that those of us in places like So. Cal. and metro east coast wont survive long if put to the that test.
"People won't be allowed to starve, even under John McCain. Political suicide, whatever your economic dogma."
You can always get at least two square meals a day in the DC area if you know where to go. I've volunteered at a so called 'feeding program', where many of the clients were the working poor.
You got it. I've got a side in the freezer and Chuck and T-Bone are grazing as we speak....
Inflation has lags like any other indicators. Anyone calling for deflation is welcome to see my property taxes, cable bill, insurance premiums, food expenses, utility oh hell, you get it.
Why don't think I believe we will enter a deflationary depression? http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/m3b.png ---- Monetary policy is obviously favoring major, major inflation at this point. I'm much more concerned about stagflation at the moment...
In addition to all of our other problems, it also appears we are experiencing a sort of colony collapse. Nobody wants to be a worker bee. Look around at your Janitors, Farmers, Hotel Maids, Auto Workers, Construction Workers...its amazing. They are all old as the hills. Then you walk into McDonalds or Wal Mart and its senior citizens froom the door to the stockroom. Where are the teenagers? The young workers?
How much longer will these old geezers feed us and change our sheets?
People will starve--soup kitchens will not have the capacity--or the food. I don't expect Mad Max, but I know that today's poor will get that much poorer--and racism will become more blatant, and crime more terrible, and government more corrupt. This site is full of jokes about buying ammo because deep down, we know it could happen.
Yellon is ok in my books. If she weren't as forthcoming as she is we would be hearing about the severity of the situation from exactly zero Fed governors.
She is a bureaucrat, and a senior one at that. She is therefor restricted in what she can say. I give credit to her for saying what she can, way ahead of the rest of the Fed. Nobody else in the Fed is stepping up to that plate.
Inject your favorite antidepressant into the financial institutions. Oh wait maybe we already had too many of those and could not see the downside to the printing the inflationary funny paper.
"People will starve--soup kitchens will not have the capacity--or the food."
That is a problem - and this is an affluent area. If the government doesn't step in there could be trouble, but I don't see how they could not step in.
Yellon is ok in my books. If she weren't as forthcoming as she is we would be hearing about the severity of the situation from exactly zero Fed governors.
She was also one of the first ones to mention the real risks of a housing downturn in 05. This while others members were still in LaLa land.
I witnessed falling stock prices in the 70's. Falling oil prices in the 80's. Falling metals prices in the 80's. Falling real estate prices in the 80's and 90's.
Falling prices everywhere for 35 years yet my money buys less.
Try to buy a new GE side by side refrigerator for $399. What???????
Get a grip on life. Actually I would LOVE to see my money buy more. Ain't happened even in the 30's depression. Look at prices other than food and second hand goods from 29 to 41. Ain't no price reductions in general.
Most people are mis-educated through laziness or whatever.....
Meanwhile, Iceland might have come up with the simplest solution of all women. According to the Financial Times it has simply put two women in charge of the two banks it has nationalised, after the banking empire built by its young, male business-schooled elite collapsed.
And they probably wont demand as much money either.
butter...yes prop taxes are going down with house prices. Very few municipalities/counties have the balls to try to raise rates.
BTW...Ross, Mish would tell us we are both stupid for not understanding the true definition of inflation. We are more or less discussing pricing. The two are very different. I am typing on a blackberry so I can't detail.
search inflation on his sight for more detail.
Now that the PTB have saved the credit markets, all the consumers out there with FICA of 780 or higher and cash for the 20% down payment can now resume SUV and McMansion purchases. I heard this from W.
Anyone with that kind of cash and that credit score probably knows they would be buying a deflatable and deflating asset. The McMansion horror cannot go away soon enough. Hopefully at least no more will be built, and the existing ones will become delapidated, and or bulldozed. A blight on this country.
Meanwhile, Iceland might have come up with the simplest solution of all women.
"My guess - and it said only half in cynicism - the women are beautiful in Iceland - the place just pushes out Miss World winners. Its almost as close to NYC as Vegas. Sex Tourism for hard cash will be their next export industry."
I don't know a Mish. I do know that in Texas, my property tax rate has gone from a combined 1.67% in 1974 to 2.69% this year. My house in 74 was appraised at $65,000 and is now on the books for $273,000. Same house.
Defination of inflation is: things don't cost more, your money buys less. QED!!!
Deflation mongers are cruel jokers, stupid or they are trying to sell you
something.
After the 87 'crash' Prechter, Mr. deflationest, was calling for DOW 200. A. Gary Shilling, a man I respect and knew personally in the 70's and 80's has been calling for deflation since 1978.
ross...I can't buy a side by side fridge for 400 but I can by a formerly 1M dollar house for 700K. if I wait another 6 to 12 months I might get it for 500K. Prior values may have been extreme but it is a massive decline in price that can not be overlooked.
Delivering messages competently is a skill that's been in short supply in this country for some years, so I can understand your respect for your post-woman.
On a more serious note, since the 700B$ bill passed I know of 11 people that were barely hanging on that walked from their debt. 10 in the last 4 days.
It is interesting that one G7 country has managed to avoid the need for nationalizing its major banks - Canada. It is, I'm sure, a coincidence that Canada is also the only G7 country that has managed to balance its federal books.
Didn't they get the memo from AllenM? The Velvet Fist of Government will make it all OK (in Iceland, I have a feeling the government would actually be the first place you'd get a bwahahaha over that theory).
MLM, actually I should have said "deep" kimshe. Anyway, I've read that many of them have "currency basket" car and home loans. That means their principal is rising. Bad news all the way around.
Canada is a fine place. Good national health insurance. Banks in better shape than most. Boom the last few years from oil and mining and real estate, but bad news for manufacturing hurt badly by the rising Loonie (Canadian .
It is a saner country than the US, but Canada is going to have its problems, too, about 1 year or so behind the US. Real estate bubbles busting, oil and metal prices sinking, no demand to pick up manufacturing.
Maybe it won't be as bad as the US or Iceland, but Canada is going to hurt, too.
True enough that they will not start from the same budget pit that the US is starting from - Canada did not go crazy with mindless tax cuts, nor did it send its army to Iraq (just Afghanistan, where too many C's have been killed).
Isn't this past tense? From what I've read recently, the provinces are racing to the bottom of the barrel with corporate tax cuts in order to lure/retain corporations.
Now It's Official: Treasury Can't Influence How Banks Use Cash Infusion
Per Bloomberg, Treasury operatives have admitted, despite Henry Paulson's protestations to the contrary, that the government can only hope for the best in how the nine banks given a collective $125 billion cash infusion early in the week make use of the loot
Don't know if anybody else caught the Brad DeLong interview on Bloomberg this evening. His take was that all other approaches had been discredited, and only Bernanke's idea of giving banks extra capital had a chance of working. Key question: will they lend the money out? Ruh roh.
Jeez, if an idiot buys a T-Bone for $15 a pound when the going price is $5, and now will only pay $5 a pound, that ain't deflation. That's reality.
Houses sell at replacement cost less depreciation. Anyone who would EVER pay more than that needs a straight jacket.
Deflating a bubble in an asset class is NOT deflation.
Think of this. If oil was $35/barrel, how much could be produced at a profit. If oil was $35/barrel, how much more would we use?
Cost inputs are such that the break even for food production, energy extraction et al are platformed HIGHER FOREVER in whatever fiat medium you choose.
The only deflation I can see is moving the decimal point on your pieces of money.
For sure. Can't have 3/4 of exports heading for a recessionary market and not feel impact. That said, based on what's happened so far, I like their chances more than most.
Item 8.01. Other Events
On October 13, 2008, Morgan Stanley (the "Company") issued a press release announcing that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. ("MUFG") closed on a $9 billion equity investment in the Company that gives MUFG a 21% ownership interest in the Company on a fully diluted basis. The investment is part of a previously announced global strategic alliance. Under the revised terms of the transaction, MUFG has acquired approximately $7.8 billion of perpetual non-cumulative convertible preferred stock with a 10 percent dividend and a conversion price of $25.25 per share, and approximately $1.2 billion of perpetual non-cumulative non-convertible preferred stock with a 10 percent dividend. A copy of the press release is being filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference in its entirety.
True enough, though I meant income and other personal taxes (sales, property, etc). Canadians pay for National health, etc. But at the corporate level you are right, it is becoming an ugly spiral.
That is a problem - and this is an affluent area. If the government doesn't step in there could be trouble, but I don't see how they could not step in.
Pavel Chichikov | 10.15.08 - 12:41 am | #
Pavel every time someone brings up socialism, you tell some scary story about the Soviets. Now you want some back?
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ writes:
I actually thought Bretton Woods was going to be the subject of the first Conjure dispatch.
I also thought it would be about the new monetary system or the Great Transition in general. I will wear my reading glasses instead of a diaper for the next one.
mp - Don't know if you've picked up on recent comments from Europe, including Sarkozy, saying that we "need to discuss" current international financial system. Sounds like BW is on the table.
Federal National Mortgage Association
Form 10-Q
For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2008
Re: AFS = available-for-sale
Gross unrealized losses as of June 30, 2008 related to our investments in Alt-A private-label securities and subprime private-label securities classified as AFS totaled $3.9 billion and $3.6 billion, respectively.
For the second quarter and first six months of 2008, we recognized net fair value gains on our investments in subprime private-label wraps classified as trading of $428 million and $377 million, respectively. We did not recognize any fair value gains or losses on our investments in Alt-A private-label wraps during this period. Gross unrealized losses related to our investments in subprime private-label wraps classified as AFS totaled $14 million as of June 30, 2008. We did not have any gross unrealized gains or losses on our investments in Alt-A private-label wraps as of June 30, 2008.
The estimated fair value of our AFS securities decreased to $245.2 billion as of June 30, 2008 from $293.6 billion as of December 31, 2007. Gross unrealized losses related to these securities totaled $11.2 billion as of June 30, 2008, compared with $4.8 billion as of December 31, 2007. The increase in gross unrealized losses during the first six months of 2008 was primarily due to significantly wider spreads during the period, which reduced the fair value of substantially all of our mortgage-related securities, particularly our private-label mortgage-related securities backed by Alt-A, subprime, and commercial multifamily loans. We discuss our process for assessing our AFS investment securities for other-than-temporary impairment below.
As of June 30, 2008, we pledged a total of $736 million of available-for-sale (AFS) securities, which the counterparties had the right to sell or repledge. As of December 31, 2007, we pledged a total of $538 million, comprised of $531 million of AFS securities, $5 million of trading securities, and $2 million of loans held for investment, which the counterparties had the right to sell or repledge.
Speaking of politics, I guess we got another minority Conservative government here. Did it even cross any of your ken that we were having a federal election today?
Interesting comments coming out of ECB and London. Also interesting that in three days EU and Canada begin negotiations on what would essentially be Canadian entry into the EU.
Will be interesting to see how that plays out with the current NAFTA situation. And with currency "regime change".
I dunno, if God came to me and asked which do I prefer, to die by 500lb bomb, or to die by 400lb bomb, I think I'd choose 500lb bomb. You know, go out with more of a bang, eh? So maybe those Canucks just got lucky.
Ross, go do some reading and educate yourself before you go on about inflation. It's painful to listen to you spout giberish and make disparaging comments about Mish. Not that I think Mish is God, but at least he makes a solid argument for his position.
... Here's the real world:
The problem with the netting argument is that everyone is assuming bank B has the 80% to cough up, which they don't because they bought 80% protection from insolvent monoline MBIA to hedge them against bank A, but insolvent mononline MBIA reinsured with insolvent monoline Ambac, who sold protection to banks A, B, C, and D at 120x leverage and can't pay all of them at once.
Hence, bank C is f1cked, because bank A is f2cked by bank B, who got f3cked by MBIA who is currently getting f4cked by Ambac who can't pay everybody (or maybe even anybody, now), hence can generally be considered to be f5cking everybody involved.
Even common sense tends to evade these smart people. This is what happens when you are allowed to write OTC insurance without reserves, an exchange and regulations!
I expect this whole house of cards to collapse any time now. The problem is the revolution will not be televised. ...
"Some of us noticed Mssr. Canadien avec popcorn. What's your level of cynicism regarding who gets elected? Do you give a hooting hell about politics?"
The Conservative leader, Stephen Harper, called an early election here because his strategists thought that McCain was going to be crushed in your election and the debacle would rub off on Conservatives everywhere to his detriment.
My level of cynicism? I think that our politicos are generally all tools for somebody or something, but at least none of them have shat all over our constitution in pursuit of whatever ends yet so I'll give 'em that. But then what do I know, I voted Green.
One of the things I respected about Eisenhower was his ability as an administrator. He knew how to keep the bureaucracy in line. He also knew how to get results.
Very true, and Eisenhower also knew both why and how to keep from sending troops to Vietnam. In my book that cancels out his hand up to Nixon. Plus Eisenhower stood up in Little Rock.
Congress, in opposition to its own constituents, decided to force US Taxpayers to borrow $700 billion and give it to Wall Street. The hope is that Wall Street then lends it back to us, so that dumbshit Joe 6 Pack will now owe the money two times.
Did I get that right?
Is it also right that Congress received huge numbers of messages from constituents insisting "No!" and they did it anyway?
And the money goes at the request of George "Dead or Alive" W Bush and Henry "Golden Sacks" Paulson?
Asia down, LEAN HOGS FUTUREs down, Treasury yields down,
The U.S. dollar may weaken before data that economists predict will show the nation's retail sales fell at a faster pace as job losses and a housing slump curb spending.
The yen could get support from the stock market decline as it shows investors aren't completely ready to take on risk,'' said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo.The outlook for the U.S. economy doesn't look good, and this will drag the dollar lower.'
uropean Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said officials reshaping the world's financial system should try to return to the ``discipline'' that governed markets in the decades after World War II.
Perhaps what we need is to go back to the first Bretton Woods, to go back to discipline,'' Trichet said after giving a speech at the Economic Club of New York yesterday.It's absolutely clear that financial markets need discipline: macroeconomic discipline, monetary discipline, market discipline.'
Both the role and effects of CDS in the current market turmoil have been greatly exaggerated,'' Robert Pickel, chief executive officer of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, said in testimony before the Senate Committee for Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry yesterday. ``To say that CDS were the cause, or even a large contributor, to that turmoil is inaccurate.''
Credit-default swap trading expanded 100-fold since 2001 as insurance companies, hedge funds and investors used the derivatives to protect against bond losses and speculate on companies' ability to repay debt. Lawmakers and regulators have called for more oversight of the $54.6 trillion market after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which was among the top 10 backers of the contracts.
Blaming credit-default swaps for the credit crunch ``reflects confusion of the various financial products that have been developed in recent years,'' Pickel told lawmakers. The securities have a beneficial role to play in helping financial markets allocate risk, he said.
.
I believe the Queen can throw out the results of the election, no?
yogi | 10.15.08 - 1:43 am | #
I'm not sure about that. She has a lot of power being the head of state and all but they are mostly symbolic powers. She might be able to but it would certainly provoke a constitutional crisis if she did.
I was one of Yellen's GSIs at Cal. She was ahead of many others at the Fed. I think she probably knew more in 2005 than she let on. In her position she can't say too much. I sent her some data on this back in 2005 and told her how worried I was and I think she understood how overvalued housing was. To the extent anyone at the Fed fully understood the amount of CDs exposure, is hard to say. To the extent that they understand how hard it is to get out of a credit bubble, I think they know. They just can't come out and say "hey people you are all screwed....."
Dreadnought Sclachtschiff writes:
Both the role and effects of CDS in the current market turmoil have been greatly exaggerated,'' Robert Pickel, chief executive officer of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, said in testimony before the Senate Committee for Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry yesterday. ``To say that CDS were the cause, or even a large contributor, to that turmoil is inaccurate.''
I don't know many of the players, but that guy, Pickel, is the one I most want to see in chains.
Eisenhower also had a very high testosterone level, but didn't show it in public.
A few years ago, I had several conversations with one of Eisenhower's bodyguards and learned some interesting things.
Eisenhower's staff ran like a "sewing machine," which is what you would expect and used the stun gun method of leadership. You did what was expected and were rewarded. Otherwise, you got knee-capped.
Ike also had JF Dulles as Sec of State. Dulles refusal to talk with Ho Chi Minh led inevitably to US involvement into the Franco-Indochinese war, with disastrous results.
Pickel is the kind of guy that will get sucker punched walking down the street. After that 60 minutes interview, I'd be careful if I were him. Fat, smug and stupid is no way to go through life.
"Ike also had JF Dulles as Sec of State. Dulles refusal to talk with Ho Chi Minh led inevitably to US involvement into the Franco-Indochinese war, with disastrous results"
Your Constitution, which allows the monarch to dissolve Parliament, is not worth shitting on.
yogi | 10.15.08 - 1:52 am | #
Uh, no you have that kinda wrong. She is actually required to dissolve Parliament at the request of the outgoing Prime Minister when an election is called.
Ho's story is an interesting one because an OSS team saved his life in 1945. Ho was actually quite pro-American at the beginning, and one could actually have called him a nationalist early on, but he soured later.
I guess he had to find someone to butter his bread.
Dulles also had a hand in the installation of the Shah of Iran with the coup against PM Mossadegh; installation of a banana republic in Guatamale; and, oh, a little bit of Nazi support until 1935. He is credited with the phrase "The United States of Americans does not have friends; it has interests."
He developed brinksmanship as a tool of US foreign policy, and was modeled by later administrations, especially Reagan's.
While Ike may have burnished his reputation as a great president with his outgoing speech warning against the military-industrial complex, his selection and support of Dulles foreshadowed the next 50 years of soured US military involvement around the globe.
"our prime ministers get rolled by the people when they lose the plot.."
I particularly enjoy the question and answer period. It's always interesting--and entertaining--to see some back-bencher kick a prime minister in the ass.
The recent flow of economic data suggests that the economy was weaker than expected in the third quarter, probably showing essentially no growth at all. Growth in the fourth quarter appears to be weaker yet, with an outright contraction quite likely. Indeed, the U.S. economy appears to be in a recession.
mp writes:
"Ike also had JF Dulles as Sec of State. Dulles refusal to talk with Ho Chi Minh led inevitably to US involvement into the Franco-Indochinese war, with disastrous results"
No argument there.
....
I would argue it.
The US was involved in propping up the French in Indochina since 1945-46, under Truman. After Dien Bien Phu in 1954, Eisenhower guided the US away from intervening, despite talk among some of his advisors of invading and/or using nukes.
It is also true that Eisenhower allowed and enabled the construction of a government in the South under Ngo Dinh Diem, and thereby scuttled the promise of the Geneva Accords that elections should be held across the country, elections that Ho Chi Ming would have won handily. The war the US entered followed from that. But Eisenhower's decision not to invade in 1954 was momentous, all the same.
No doubt Bush pulled strings in Florida to get Caylee Anthony's mom arrested. Just try to keep us all distracted for one more day, and the next day... so on. I suspect he has also been setting fires in California as well. Gave a big call to his friend Santa Ana... "Hey, Santa... I'd like an early Christmas present...".
So that takes up Wednesday news cycle... and of course Thursday everyone will eventually be talking about "South Park" at the water cooler... not that there's anything wrong with South Park... can't wait until they do an episode about this whole economy...
mp - HO was definitely pro-American. The Vietnamese nationalists hated the Chinese, who had occupied the peninsula on and off for much of the previous millenium. VN nationalism took a back seat during WW2, and only re-emerged after Japan's defeat. Then, when Mao's imperial designs on China's southern borders became evident, Ho approached the US for assistance.
Dulles said, effectively, HELL no. That led to Ho finding someone else - the Soviet's - to butter his bread.
I should have also mentioned that he hoped J. Edgar Hoover, who he used to play poker with at the Army-Navy Club, was also burning in the hottest corner of the fires of hell.
Joe Schmo - my history is somewhat divergent. My father emigrated from VN in 1956; his forefathers were landowners in central VN (Hue). Family story goes that Ho worked hand in hand with his later opponents during WW2 and immediately thereafter in the attempt to secure VN independence.
Nationalism was ALWAYS the first call. Communism came later out of necessity in order to secure Soviet aid. Bitter enmity ensued; my grandfather and father despised Ho for permitting their land to be confiscated. However, that doesn't absolve Eisenhower for permitting that POS Dulles a free rein. Had JFD, who some regard as a closet fascist (not just for his support of Hitler), provided material support in the form of opposing France's attempts to re-establish a colony, it's doubtful that 50k plus US soldiers would have perished in that entanglement.
I remember, oh so long ago, when Alan Greenspan was talking about a thirty-three percent chance of a recession, the economists were saying that it was irresponsible to mention recession because of the chance of a self-fulfilling prophecy. So given this reluctance, is this Fed speak (by Yellen) for the coming Not-So-Great Depression?
I guess you missed my point. Just because the Queen, or her "representatives", hasn't exercised power in a long time, don't assume the power has dissolved. If England runs out of North Sea oil you'll hear from her.
mp - there are some astonishing stories of corruption that follow from the VN war. I had literally dozens of refugees stream through my parents house in 1975.
Mom later told me that the bulk of those who got out under the wire were those who had enough gold on their persons to bribe their way to the helicopters. And of course, those people were the war profiteers. Highly "capitalist", of course, and rabidly anti-communist.
Hoocoodanode their adopted country would revert to corporate socialism? OK, OK, corpo-fascism, whatever.
the commonwealth relationship with lizzie and phil is all good, they bailed on us to join the EEC, but they can have as much lamb and butter as they want..
Did bush suspend posse comitus (serious question)?
Some of my compatriots - roughly 50% according to one poll - effectively agree with Bush that the Geneva Conventions are "quaint" because they say it is just peachy to torture.
I don't think there has been a similar opinion poll done on habeus corpus, probably because most people don't know what it is, let alone the pathetically informal constitutional tradition from which its American form derives(uh . . . used to derive). Unlike torture, which is something little kids learn by pulling the wings off flies, one can only learn about habeus corpus by going to school or reading.
Similarly, most Americans do not know that the word "god" was inserted into the national "Pledge of Allegiance" (which is offered to the flag) only in the 1950s, in a fit of godly anti-communism. Most believe that the deist and Enlightenment influenced authors of the US Constitution made this a "Christian" nation.
I think the 2nd Amendment (the right to bear arms) is by far the best known part of the Constitution among most Americans.
Anyway . . . how are the sheep and sauvignon blanc doing out your way?
Yeah I'm one of the most vocal critics of the US government and it's failings over the past 50 years, but Canadians should not be giving out constitutional advice. They are royal subjects.
We damnable slants couldn't be trusted. Upthread someone mentioned racism on the rise during troubled economic times. I would concur. I "pass" due to some miscegenation. Still, Asia (to generalize) was viewed as colony territory, and it's leaders were essentially given the head-pat treatment.
There there, aren't you CUTE for wanting independence! Now, give us your resources.
"Similarly, most Americans do not know that the word "god" was inserted into the national "Pledge of Allegiance" (which is offered to the flag) only in the 1950s, in a fit of godly anti-communism."
My father's uncle--California American Legion--was one of the movers in that initiative.
Yeah, a new monetary regime is coming, whether the US likes it or not.
mp | 10.15.08 - 1:17 am
I made this same point last night. You can bet TPTB (meaning EU and BRIC, ha-ha) are striving right now to determine a plausible replacement for the dollar reserve currency.
The larger question is, will they come up with one and slide it into place in time.
It's Posse Comitatus, and no, not officially. He has violated it, and there will be a response, but everything depends on what happens in the next months.
"The Executive Government and Authority of and over Canada is hereby declared to continue and be vested in the Queen."
Ours begins, "We the People".
Better get get your facts straight, your Constitutional crisis is coming too.
yogi | 10.15.08 - 2:11 am | #
Holy crap dude.... your quote is from the British North America Act of 1867. We got rid of that document and wrote a new one in 1982 when Pierre Trudeau repatriated the constituion from Great Britain to Canada.
I couldn't recognize the quote at first but really didn't think that anybody would possibly manage to stick their foot quite that far up their ass and mangle their own argument as to quote a document that hasn't been used for almost 30 years. Wow.
"Some of my compatriots - roughly 50% according to one poll - effectively agree with Bush that the Geneva Conventions are "quaint" because they say it is just peachy to torture."
Yeah, and by violating the Geneva Convention, they're giving license for the torture of captured American soldiers. Having served as infantryman, I personally know the implications of this are enormous and terrible.
but Canadians should not be giving out constitutional advice. They are royal subjects.
yogi | 10.15.08 - 2:30 am | #
That's mighty white of you, yogi. Opinions are part and parcel of this forum, but because someone hails to the queen they can't offer any?
Please - if you disagree with their political system, that's totally fine. Skewer it as you claim to skewer ours. But it's so not worth getting worked up over. They can be just as wrong as any citizen. Maybe we'll even be lucky enough to learn something from someone from outside the system.
Or not. Just, chill out, dude. Me, I like the idea of Freddy Mercury singing right about now.
Yep, just as long as you ask them about terrorism. That's going to be my defense.
Prosecutor: Why did you torture your neighbor? For fun?
Me: Yes, but I asked him what he knew about terrorism,...
You'll note that the rationale for torture doesn't include any thought that they might not know anything about the subject and might be as innocent, or more innocent as all the releases for Gitmo.
That Act is in full force and effect, and the quote was not amended by the ACT of 1982.
The arrogance and hypocrisy of the British Empire carries down to its provincial subjects. But yes, I fully support the First Amendment, and they can criticize us all they like.
Bear in mind that Fleet Streeters, IIRC, were first to demonstrate the lovely qualities of derivatives to waiting investors. Wall Street shenanigans followed this most English of capital inventions.
That said, Brown's capital injections seem to be superior to Paulson's.
On the larger history, I agree completely with you on the larger judgement - would have and should have saved 50,000 American lives and about 2 million Vietnamese, plus maybe a few million more Cambodians.
I also agree on the centrality of nationalism all the way through the 30 year war, 1945-1975, and also in the early 20th century, too, esp the 1920s-40s.
But a couple of quibbles. Ho was already a marxist by the end of the 1920s (no skin off my nose), connected to the International due to its anti-colonial bent.
The French war of reconquest started right at the end of WWII - Ho declared independence in August 1946, right? Borrowing the words of the US Declaration of Independence, too, I should add. Roosevelt had been broadly desirous of decolonization in French Indochina and elsewhere, partly out of sympathy, mainly as a way to break down barriers to American commercial access. But during the war Roosevelt equivocated a lot due to the need to maintain European allies' strength.
In 1946 and more clearly in 1947, Truman fell strongly on the side of the French and supported the French war of reconquest in Indochina. This fell in line with the Marshall Plan and Truman Doctrine, all about rebuilding the W European economies and making them bulwarks of anti-communism. That was all before Eisenhower came to office in 1953.
A year after Eisenhower was inaugurated, in 1954, the French fell at Dien Bien Phu, and Eisenhower decided not to intervenene but to force the negotiation of the Geneva Accords.
Then by 1956 Eisenhower decide to renege - more properly, to support Diem in reneging - on the geneva Accords call for national elections.
back to agreeing with you and others: the Dulles brothers were responsible for lots of havoc in Iran, Guatemala, Cuba, Philippines, and elsewhere. And Eisenhower must bear responsibilty, too.
But backing the French in their war in Indochina was Truman's mistake, not Eisenhower's.
unirealist, mp - What if the tinfoil hatter's are correct, and the gold reserves once stored in Knox are now dispersed? The US, knowing this, would be loathe to admit it, and would fight against the USD being removed as reserve currency that much the harder. Given that US GDP still constitutes some 25% of global output, this opposition can't be ignored or easily placated.
.
yogi writes:
That Act is in full force and effect, and the quote was not amended by the ACT of 1982.
....................................
Well then, you've certainly put the lie to what must be the biggest event in Canada in the last fifty years.
The whole repatriation affair in the memories of everyone here that lived through it, as well as the subject as taught to every Canadian child in school, all a sham. Mister, you're amazing to see through that.
Exit, I think $US is going to continue to play a major role for years to come. Having said that, we must recognize that it has been compromised and that the rest of the world is now going to start to rumble over it.
I think the US will receive a come-uppance very soon and the proverbial political snowball will start rolling.
As to what the outcome will be, who knows? It depends on who has the grease at the time. I suspect that, at least initially, we'll end up with some kind of currency basket again. Unfortunately, there hasn't been very much luck with those.
"My father's uncle--California American Legion--was one of the movers in that initiative."
We can't help who we're related to or what they do . . . .
More importantly, you don't fit in the category of "most Americans," not just because you knew about the god stuff and other things, but more importantly because you are just a figment of Conjure's imagination.
About that other question you asked, yes, that's what I do.
"As the representative of The Queen in Canada, the Governor-General summons, opens and ends sessions of Parliament, reads the Speech from the Throne, gives Royal Assent to bills passed by the House of Commons and the Senate, signs State documents, and dissolves Parliament for an election. The Governor-General also presides over the swearing-in of the Prime Minister, the Chief Justice of Canada and cabinet ministers."
(Official and current)
I used to think the US Secretary of the Treasury was a bureaucrat with little policy making power.
So is it likely to be planned, or just going to be an accidental invention of things that sort of work cause we need them to? I mean, has anyone started out thinking that they would be the reserve currency, or has everyone more or less fallen into the role because of stronger trade relations?
Joe Schmoe - concur with mp. I can readily admit that family stories might conflict with other observations, and that your views are more accurate.
If quibbles they be, I would suggest that given the regime change in 52, Eisenhower wasted a golden opportunity to drive a wedge in the ostensible communist brotherhood. Revisionism is of course ridiculous, but in hindsight there were real and serious divisions between Stalin / Kruschev and Mao, and they used VN as a proxy. Speculative, certainly, that Ho might have been persuaded to drop the communist orthodoxy given sufficient US aid, but from a geo-political standpoint, it would have put a us thumb to the noses of both the Soviets and Chinese, to 'steal', as it were, one of their vassals.
Remember, Ho was first a nationalist.
Kind of fun to cogitate. It never happened, so we'll never know.
I DO know that VN is now actively (and successfully) seeking to take manufacturing away from China. A US led firm based in Saigon oversees much of the infrastructure buildup, marketing, and Imp/Exp. check it out - the Gannon Group, in case you're interested.
mp writes:
"If we get Palin in office, she's gonna want to invade your ass on a mission from God."
Conjure says, "BWAHAHAHA!"
....
That's the funniest, saddest and truest thing I've read all night. In between mosseburgers and plotting revenge on her ex-brother-in-law and denouncing Obama, Palin likes to talk about all those hungry markets. I can just see her getting a call from Jesus telling her to invade.
Time for a drink and a few hours of sleep before I wake up in a cold sweat worrying that Palin might get elected.
Well, no excuse for the Dulles cabal. But, like I said, even Babe Ruth didn't bat a thousand.
We were full of ourselves after WW2 and we walked around the world playing kingmaker.
Personally, I'd characterize Allen Dulles more in the Thomas Beckett sphere. YMMV. Anyway, we're at the tail end of that cycle. Our Republican branch has been living off their fumes for awhile now, the meter is reading "empty".
Exit writes:
Joe Schmoe - concur with mp. I can readily admit that family stories might conflict with other observations, and that your views are more accurate.
Have a friend whose father was colonel for the South and aunt was Ho's doctor. Don't know if any or how many Vietnamese were ideologues, but the lack of rancor (the family goes back visiting) suggests more nationalism than anything else.
The State Department ("Foggy Bottom") has been, and probably always will be, populated by a bunch of crazies (I'm being polite here).
Anyway, my old acquaintance always told me, "Diplomacy is personal."
He was very aware of, and involved in, the Ho story early on. (Keep in mind the old OSS hands who populated CIA were far more capable than the anti-communist morons Dulles brought in).
Anyway, Envir Hoxha in Albania was another one. The US blew a chance there at the end of WWII because of a lot of ideological crap. Albania ended up rabidly communist when it could have ended up on "our" side, or at least neutral.
You're absolutely right about the US not having a clue about relations between the Soviets, China, and Vietnam in the 1950s and 60s. Not a clue. Total ideological blindspot, coupled with racism that also suggested China and Vietnam could not be making their own way. A kind of rigidity not unlike Paulson and Bush.
What if the tinfoil hatter's are correct, and the gold reserves once stored in Knox are now dispersed?
Exit, there's a fascinating if somewhat apocryphal story about the Federal Reserve gold under the Twin Towers being removed as 9/11 happened.
As for the US Treasury gold, there is deep suspicion on the part of some goldbugs that most of its stated reserves no longer exist. There's been no open audit of those reserves for many decades.
And much of whatever isn't physically gone is "loaned out" at very low interest rates.
Anyway, your point is well-taken. The US would bawl like a baby if it lost the dollar's reserve status. It's just that I think the shots are no longer being called by the US. We're just a third-world country with nukes, in the eyes of many.
BTW, like many of my generation I hated the "American Invasion" of Vietnam, and marched against it many times as a teenager. I am now convinced that it proved to be the downfall of the US, in the long run. Whichever side your family was on, if ever there was a war that never should have happened, it was that one.
Comrade Canadien avec popcorn writes:
I'm afraid of ignorant misinformed kittle trolls like yogi.
I was kind of hoping he could convince you of the errors of your ways and start you thinking of ways to throw off the shackles of tyranny and become independent,...like us.
sdtfs - I've only just begun (no, not the song) to get to know some of my 'people'. Not 'mine', actually, as being a half-quarter-quarter breed I didn't actually fit - anyways - VN young adults in the OC are pretty well "bananas" now.
Yellow outside / white inside. Some aspire to Yolk status (white outside yellow inside) and that of course leads to all kinds of screwy headgames.
Many speak halting or no mother tongue even with full bore 1st gen parents.
Lots of visits back to country. Some repatriation, as well, even by older anti-communists, as it becomes ever more evident that the old capitalist ways are returning to VN. Communism was a means to an end - ridding colonial masters, and redistribution of ill-gotten gains. Perhaps my forebears were 'bad capitalists' though of course I'd have to disagree.
yogi writes:
Why ask for her assent, if she has to always give it to you?
yogi | 10.15.08 - 3:06 am |
It's all symbolism and tradition.
I'll leave you with two things to ponder.
A parliamentary system has a different set of checks and balances than your system. What are they? Look back through English and French history to see the developement of them.
What is the difference between a reigning monarch and a constitutional monarch.
Joe - inscrutable asians, you know. and we all look alike. LOL. Colonialists never believe that the locals might actually wield that machete upside their neck. That's one reason I think that Gandhi is held in such high esteem in the West. Because non-violent protest means the colonizers get to keep their heads. The alternative scares hell out of whitey.
Uni, mp - dollar hegemony will yield, grudgingly, unless scary sarah gets her way and mimics cheney - the non-negotiable american way of life.
Why, btw, is a lowered 'standard of living' for US citizens such a frightening prospect? Isn't one TV per house enough? Does every light in the house have to be on? Does not being able to eat grapes 24/7/365 mean that the commies win? I don't get it. Then again, it's late. Good night....
The Vietnamese nationalists hated the Chinese, who had occupied the peninsula on and off for much of the previous millenium.
Reminds me of my Chinese friend in Chengdu who dreamily told me of China's former control of Japan (1,000 years ago ?) Anyway , that's what the government is teaching.
There's a lot of ugly xenophobia just below the surface in Asia that can only end badly ....as China pushes past Japan economically, and the SE Asian countries try to grab manufacturing from China. Not to mention the Koreas and the US military presence in general.
I work my ass off writing this shit and someday, this all gonna end!
Re: The reason this bailout wont work, is because we are bailing out fraud and trying to give value to derivatives that are worthless and then bailout a consortium of crooks with taxpayer cash. Look at Chrysler as a real example of government intervention. Chrysler had crappy cars, but turned around a product and motivated their workforce to be more efficient, and make a profit for the employees and the taxpayers, because of warrants.
Paulson and Bernanke are suggesting that taxpayers give these financial engineers unlimited shots at supercharging an $800 Billion taxpayer heist, and to roll the dice in a super-casino-bet, intended to wind down their trillion dollar bad bets. Wall street just crashed the global economy and now they wanna try doubling down and going for broke!
Looking back, bailing out Chrysler, essentially was a simple means to keep several thousand people in the business of building cars that could be sold to people that needed new transportation. If Chrysler would have failed, many of those union employees would have simply been forced to retrain and move on -- and the world would have gone on and the business of making cars would have gone on without them. Chrysler was not really that important in a global perspective. Failure was an option then, just as it is now and IMHO, there are crooked banks that need to go under ASAP.
Hence, when we look at the current argument of financial collapse and global systemic failure, we seem to have a system that has failed, versus a single entity. However, that is the fallacy of this ploy, i.e, to believe that if a few wall street derivative shops close, that the world will fall apart and that your local grocery store will not be able to use currency hedging and swaps and CDS and CDOs and SIVs and to bet the farm on bread futures and hamburger futures and soup derivatives and halloween candy that is linked to shorting toothpaste that uses LIBOR as a reset mechanism for hedging cornflakes.
The argument of the world crashing is bullshit and IMHO, the only thing that might crash -- hopefully will crash, will be the option grant compensation and synthetic careers of a shitload of wall street crooks that hopefully will spend the rest of their lives in nasty prison cells -- where the devil will be in the details!
Life will go on, without the crooks and the crooked banks and life will be better without them!
I will try a bit of a parable on the inflation/deflation discussion.
When the Dalai Lama visited Germany several years ago, he was fairly unnerved by the number of younger Germans that had adopted Buddhism due to its belief in reincarnation. The reason he was disturbed is that those Germans thought that having more than one life to party in sounded like a good thing, which in the Dalai Lama's eyes was so missing the point that it was essentially tragic. He even gently suggested that people holding such beliefs should not consider themselves Buddhists, as they simply did not understand what Buddhism was.
Inflation makes people poorer, and destroys the concept of money as a store of value. However, broadly speaking, as long as it does not become hyperinflation, inflation does not impact those at the top of the economic system. And assuming the political-economic system is able to handle the cure (Volcker being a modern example), inflation can be restrained. The cure is painful, and most economies, most of the time, will avoid it as long as possible (Germany being one of the exceptions, but then, everyone knows about Germany, inflation, and its results.)
Deflation makes people poorer, and destroys the concept of assets as a store of value (except for the most basic assets - land producing food has a value beyond the monetary - feudalism being a notable example). And once deflation becomes self-reinforcing, no one has found much of a cure beyond the old system being replaced, including many of those who had formerly been at the top losing their wealth and position. Which is why, generally, before deflation becomes self-reinforcing, all attempts are made to combat it.
Which didn't work in Japan, nor did it work in the Great Depression. What had been assumed to be wealth wasn't, and there was no way to bring it back.
Many people talking about prices are missing the point - neither inflation nor deflation make you better off.
However, what is happening now is the destruction of what had formerly assumed to be wealth, for example, the value of a house or a stock certificate in a retirement account.
Nothing has actually changed in the real world - but that is the problem, isn't it? Collectively, we are much poorer than we thought we were a year ago, and that fact won't simply go away.
Notice that I left stagflation off this list. Stagflation was something new, and though Volcker was able to break its back, in part, I think he got lucky. Which should never be neglected in these discussions, actually.
What you have left off in your discussion of rising prices has been the fall of interest rates on savings. I think the next few years will see the rise of stagflation's evil twin, which is still unnamed. This evil twin will cause the rate of return on essentially all investment and assets fall to somewhere around zero (or in some cases, actually turn negative due to taxes or regulations), while prices continue to increase.
I think this nightmare is haunting those who prefer to use such words as ZIRP or liquidity trap. It won't take much in the way of policy mistakes to nurture such - stagflation likely required Nixon's price controls to really lay its foundation. And why most Americans assume that the rest of the world will continue to buy Treasury debt as trillions of dollars are being created out of thin air mystifies me - no one was buying Argentina's bonds in 2001, regardless of the interest rates or discounts offered.
so much wrong thinking. The bailout may oray not fail but the details don't matter, the problem is fiat money.
The real failure was that few in the US acknowledged that the Cold War was real. A real reduction in spending and balanced accounts should have occurred after 1989.
We are much poorer, but only in dollar terms. My communication with you on this site is partly a product of the dotcom bust. We are still reaping the non-cash dividend. Of course the internet was first developed by academics, not for profit so much as to be easily able to share ideas.
Inflation works to the extent that the cost assumed by raising the dollar price of existing goods or assets is exceeded by the value of the new product financed by the inflation. More often than not it's just an abuse of government power. The old "cross of gold" arguments have merit, of course. If credit is locked up by an oligarchy which wants to just sit and get fat, it makes sense to print money and send it to workers/producers. Nothing radical, just a few points one way or the other in tax rates or a few New Deal 2.0 projects.
"A real reduction in spending and balanced accounts should have occurred after 1989."
Yes, it's one of the most poignant of the 'could have been' alternatives.
But if it had happened like that, bankers and militarists would have met with a drastic downsizing.
Enabled by fiat systems, bankers have no constraints. Neither does Congress or imperial dreamers.
My understanding is that fractional reserve lending requires an ever expanding rank of debtors just to tread water. And that a certain portion of them get thrown off the debt servicing treadmill on a regular basis.
What happens when the whole economy gets thrown off?
Really!
Appears?!?!?
Oh well
It's like there is some kind of time lapse at the Fed. And in other news, the stock market is starting to creep down....time for another rate cut?
Any surprise in this?
Ya Think?
It's like there is some kind of time lapse at the Fed.
Not a time lapse, a time warp.
Dammit Janet.
YouTube - Dammit Janet With Audience Participation
Ah yes; Old Yellen.
Yellen has a keen grasp of the obvious.
state and local govt spending growth is or will soon be slowing...and perhaps contracting. Come January, fed govt spending will be shrinking in almost every area, save for the bailout. Not sure how that gets added to GDP. But Im sure Sebastian will show up to cheer it. Hey look! Growth!
Cancel that request for Dr. Obvious. The patient is DOA. Thank you...
So let's see...no more Helocs to inject into the economy,and now exports are dropping? Must be time to drill!
I just love early Christmas presents
from our uncle. They've taken all the risk out of the short-side trade. Now this market can trade on its own fundamentals. And they aren't very good.
This will eventually be known as the great urban depression. We were a rural country 70 years ago--most capable of sustaining themselves. This one will be so much worse Of course, Scrooge will be rich.
And the Titanic appears to have hit an iceberg. Who could have node?
A mild depression, nothing more than a mild depression.
We will need to depend on robust domestic growth from China to pull us out of this quagmire. Quite ironic.
Oh, now they start yellen?
Where have they been for the past coupla years?
All the goings on amount to nothing more than a little sawdust in the oil pan. If you don't know what that does...you're too young.
I love it when people tell me: "My business is recession proof." No business is recession proof. It is all going down.
I think agriculture will do very well until it gets nationalized.
AND HISTORIANS WILL NOTE THAT WE PISSED AWAY THE WEALTH OF A NATION ON CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS. Mad Max meet Goldman Sachs. Maybe if pour about 5 trillion into the black hole...ahhh forget it.
No one wants to use the "D" word...
Mel writes:
This will eventually be known as the great urban depression. We were a rural country 70 years ago--most capable of sustaining themselves. This one will be so much worse Of course, Scrooge will be rich.
Wow does that ever tie together years of comments. First, while we are now an "urban nation" even back then we were an "interconnected nation." That's why we had things like "Okie" migrations. It wasn't crop failures so much as a dependency failure.
Don't believe me? Wait for beef prices starting this winter.
Anyway, there's a reason I call my blog "exurban nation." Kunstler calls his clusterfuck nation. You brought up urban nation.
It amuses me to read the theories of our returning to the huddled masses of the past.
if all sectors are in recession, why are ammunition and brown rice so damn pricey?
These people crack me up.... The Fed, "Hay. I just noticed we are having Financial Difficulties."
Must be nice and comfortable in their ivory tower!
China Boosts Oil Imports to Record on Falling Prices
Bloomberg.com:
News
China, the world's second-largest energy user, increased crude-oil imports to a record last month, taking advantage of falling prices, as domestic refining capacity climbed.
Crude imports surged 46 percent to 20 million metric tons or 4.87 million barrels a day in September from a year earlier, according to Bloomberg's calculations based on figures provided by the Beijing-based Customs General Administration of China on its Web site today. August purchases were 15.65 million tons. ...
Nanook, you're right no business is recession proof. Hopefully, the people that work for that business know that and will work hard to make that business suceed. I don't see that though, working with young people today, they want everything handed to them. After all, they are the generation where they were protected and told they were "doing a good job" when they actually were f*ck ups.
Recall the daily parade idiots touting the benefit of the last stimulous package and promising growth in the second half of 08!!!
Is there any wonder where this "lack of confidence" comes from?
IMHO, by the end of 2008, NBER may call this a recession.
Yellen Three Years Ago: if a sizable reversal in house prices were to occur, it probably would affect the economy mainly through the lagged effects of declines in wealth and increases in interest rates, rather than through widespread financial disruptions
YLSP writes:
Yellen Three Years Ago: if a sizable reversal in house prices were to occur, it probably would affect the economy mainly through the lagged effects of declines in wealth and increases in interest rates, rather than through widespread financial disruptions
How does someone so manifestly incompetent keep her job? Oh, right. Government worker. Never mind.
Decession
"This will eventually be known as the great urban depression. We were a rural country 70 years ago--most capable of sustaining themselves. This one will be so much worse Of course, Scrooge will be rich."
My mom was living in the country during the last depression -- a teenager on her own, working as a mother's helper or a ranch cook. She ate and had a place to sleep, but that was it. The money was nothing.
If this was like the last depression, yes, there'd be trouble getting food into the cities. But it won't be. Last Depression we had Herbert Hoover and no history of activist government.
This time, it would be different. People won't be allowed to starve, even under John McCain. Political suicide, whatever your economic dogma.
Yes, we will be guaranteed our bread and circuses...
RE,
China keeps their eye on the ball, would dearly love to see storage stats...
Rob Dawg, Thin Man fan.
wifey turned me on to Nick and Nora. I got a crush on Ms. Loy.
its too bad that most people with those huddled masses theories, and a return to the good old agrarian past assume they will be alive to experience them. I have a suspicion that those of us in places like So. Cal. and metro east coast wont survive long if put to the that test.
"People won't be allowed to starve, even under John McCain. Political suicide, whatever your economic dogma."
You can always get at least two square meals a day in the DC area if you know where to go. I've volunteered at a so called 'feeding program', where many of the clients were the working poor.
That is pretty much a clean sweep. All sectors are now slowing or in recession (except possibly government spending).
So, how do you slow government spending?
Elvis...
Sincerely,
Mrs. Robinso
To be honest I think she was one of the Fed president's who quickly recognized what was going on, no?
CR has linked to a number of her speeches in the past. I need to review the history.
I have some 80 proof that will make me feel recession proof.
Wise old J-Yello is part of our broke nation's problem not the much needed solution.
energyecon,
BTW, I really appreciate the stats and graphs at your site!
I would love to see more detail on China as well. I suppose that they really didn't start to fill their SPR in earnest.
girlbear writes:
No one wants to use the "D" word...
girlbear | 10.15.08 - 12:12 am | #
Maybe they could call it cyclothymia. Of course, then it would be the "c" word.
My last thread theme for the eve. Even some of the old dudes (50+) will dig this.
And if you're a stoner, here's your Saint:
YouTube - Willie Nelson - Gravedigger
Foreclosures are still rising. And we haven't even had the tsunami of defaults on cars, helocs, boats, credit
cards.
This mess is a long ways from over. In my county we're sittin on 22,000 foreclosures. Rising by 2,500 a month.
Dawg, 'beef prices this winter'.
You got it. I've got a side in the freezer and Chuck and T-Bone are grazing as we speak....
Inflation has lags like any other indicators. Anyone calling for deflation is welcome to see my property taxes, cable bill, insurance premiums, food expenses, utility oh hell, you get it.
Inflation is going to beat your brains out!
Why don't think I believe we will enter a deflationary depression? http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/m3b.png ---- Monetary policy is obviously favoring major, major inflation at this point. I'm much more concerned about stagflation at the moment...
This also: http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/fed_all_short_term.png
It's obvious to me now that few at the Fed understood how all of these new instruments worked. Yellen didn't.
Geithner was supposed to be on top of it. If he had been, and truly understood, he surely would have lobbyed the committee for regulation.
It didn't happen.
Oh man, I hate it when the big wigs in government start talking.
It means more intervention and more tax burden for my kids.
To anyone curious about the apparent structure of the non-cumulative/cumulative preferred stock purchase by the Treasury:
Preferred Stock=Subordinated Debt - Credit Slips
The whole thing basically shakes out to a 5% subordinated loan to the banks.
"appears to be" = "not really"
As far as I'm concerned, it's a systemic failure across the board.
There needs to be an investigation of exactly how and why all of this occurred. Too many people were sleeping on duty.
ross,
I think that many would argue that falling asset prices trump food, insurance, prop taxes, etc.
FYI- insurance (home, auto) and prop taxes are dropping, the latter significantly. My bet is food will follow fuel down for at least the short term.
In addition to all of our other problems, it also appears we are experiencing a sort of colony collapse. Nobody wants to be a worker bee. Look around at your Janitors, Farmers, Hotel Maids, Auto Workers, Construction Workers...its amazing. They are all old as the hills. Then you walk into McDonalds or Wal Mart and its senior citizens froom the door to the stockroom. Where are the teenagers? The young workers?
How much longer will these old geezers feed us and change our sheets?
"Too many people were sleeping on duty."
That would be the kinder, gentler interpretation now wouldn't it?
Dr Yeller
I'll start with consumer spending, where the news has not been good.
CONSUMER.
I don't think so.
Citizen,
Thank You Very Much.
"That would be the kinder, gentler interpretation now wouldn't it?"
They should thank their God that Conjure and I aren't in charge.
"Construction Workers"
Around here Central American.
People will starve--soup kitchens will not have the capacity--or the food. I don't expect Mad Max, but I know that today's poor will get that much poorer--and racism will become more blatant, and crime more terrible, and government more corrupt. This site is full of jokes about buying ammo because deep down, we know it could happen.
Yellon is ok in my books. If she weren't as forthcoming as she is we would be hearing about the severity of the situation from exactly zero Fed governors.
She is a bureaucrat, and a senior one at that. She is therefor restricted in what she can say. I give credit to her for saying what she can, way ahead of the rest of the Fed. Nobody else in the Fed is stepping up to that plate.
Bailout? Nice reporter on wallstrip
YouTube - Bailout?
Inject your favorite antidepressant into the financial institutions. Oh wait maybe we already had too many of those and could not see the downside to the printing the inflationary funny paper.
prop taxes goin down? bwahaha!! not where I live!
YouTube - Tapes 'n Tapes - Hang Them All
Oh goody! It's been so much fun this past week... when do we get to test the lows again?
fed was invoking fears of the great depression, interesting how just now they are coming around to recession talk. what asses
Non Nobel Stiglitz The free market ideology just doesn't work.
3 min vid
BBC NEWS | Business | Stiglitz says 'fundamental reform' needed
"As far as I'm concerned, it's a systemic failure across the board.'
They don't speak about that much, do they?
mp writes:
As far as I'm concerned, it's a systemic failure across the board.
There needs to be an investigation of exactly how and why all of this occurred. Too many people were sleeping on duty.
Yeah well there were warnings, but very few of us took heed.
"People will starve--soup kitchens will not have the capacity--or the food."
That is a problem - and this is an affluent area. If the government doesn't step in there could be trouble, but I don't see how they could not step in.
Yellon is ok in my books. If she weren't as forthcoming as she is we would be hearing about the severity of the situation from exactly zero Fed governors.
She was also one of the first ones to mention the real risks of a housing downturn in 05. This while others members were still in LaLa land.
"fed was invoking fears of the great depression"
Today, for the first time in many years, my mail delivery person spoke to me. She said she was worried and asked if I was as well.
The boys in Washington have now got all of the Joe and Jane Sixpacks in this country on one sheet of music ...and they're waiting.
Bernanke and Paulson had better deliver.
Campbell Soup for soup kitchens?
YouTube - Campbell Soup Co. (CPB)
@ are you kidding me,
I witnessed falling stock prices in the 70's. Falling oil prices in the 80's. Falling metals prices in the 80's. Falling real estate prices in the 80's and 90's.
Falling prices everywhere for 35 years yet my money buys less.
Try to buy a new GE side by side refrigerator for $399. What???????
Get a grip on life. Actually I would LOVE to see my money buy more. Ain't happened even in the 30's depression. Look at prices other than food and second hand goods from 29 to 41. Ain't no price reductions in general.
Most people are mis-educated through laziness or whatever.....
Meanwhile, Iceland might have come up with the simplest solution of all women. According to the Financial Times it has simply put two women in charge of the two banks it has nationalised, after the banking empire built by its young, male business-schooled elite collapsed.
And they probably wont demand as much money either.
go girlzzz
pinched from
Rich bankers have little to fear - Alan Kohler - News - Business Spectator
"Today, for the first time in many years, my mail delivery person spoke to me. She said she was worried and asked if I was as well."
That's interesting. We find in general that Post Office people are good people, and many of them know a lot about what goes on at ground level.
Is it the 70s yet?
Re: Today, for the first time in many years, my mail delivery person spoke to me.
Was she driving, walking or in the store?
butter...yes prop taxes are going down with house prices. Very few municipalities/counties have the balls to try to raise rates.
BTW...Ross, Mish would tell us we are both stupid for not understanding the true definition of inflation. We are more or less discussing pricing. The two are very different. I am typing on a blackberry so I can't detail.
search inflation on his sight for more detail.
OT Surfing the intertubes is good for us
BBC NEWS | Health | Internet use 'good for the brain'
"Was she driving, walking or in the store?"
She is rural delivery and drives a jeep. She drove out to deliver an express mail.
Now that the PTB have saved the credit markets, all the consumers out there with FICA of 780 or higher and cash for the 20% down payment can now resume SUV and McMansion purchases. I heard this from W.
MP
Did she not talk to you for years for fear of Conjure?
Anyone with that kind of cash and that credit score probably knows they would be buying a deflatable and deflating asset. The McMansion horror cannot go away soon enough. Hopefully at least no more will be built, and the existing ones will become delapidated, and or bulldozed. A blight on this country.
Meanwhile, Iceland might have come up with the simplest solution of all women.
"My guess - and it said only half in cynicism - the women are beautiful in Iceland - the place just pushes out Miss World winners. Its almost as close to NYC as Vegas. Sex Tourism for hard cash will be their next export industry."
Bronte Capital: Iceland the absurd
I'm guessing Elvis will be all over this new Iceland theme.
"Did she not talk to you for years for fear of Conjure?"
She's an old-fashioned type. No chit-chat, business only kind of person. I respect that.
mp,
you'll like this
Tim Geithner
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=iIfSMQjbZGXw
or Tim Geithner
http://wweek.com/photos/3352/large/9909.jpg
hmmmm...
Mr Geithner is a big part of this debacle..
"Hopefully at least no more will be built, and the existing ones will become delapidated, and or bulldozed. A blight on this country."
A lot of beautiful Maryland countryside north of DC has been mangled and scarred by those boxes. Mindless legal vandalism.
"Would you like some Squirrel grease on your mashed Turnips Citizen?"
are you kidding-
i live in flyover, and they aint lowerin no ones prop taxes.
they raised my assessed value by 47 % this year.
this aint no cali or florida here.
What the Iceland experience has demonstrated is that it can be quite disastrous having no gold reserves.
Central banks are in for a major rethink of their future reserve strategies.
@ are you kidding me,
I don't know a Mish. I do know that in Texas, my property tax rate has gone from a combined 1.67% in 1974 to 2.69% this year. My house in 74 was appraised at $65,000 and is now on the books for $273,000. Same house.
Defination of inflation is: things don't cost more, your money buys less. QED!!!
Deflation mongers are cruel jokers, stupid or they are trying to sell you
something.
After the 87 'crash' Prechter, Mr. deflationest, was calling for DOW 200. A. Gary Shilling, a man I respect and knew personally in the 70's and 80's has been calling for deflation since 1978.
Think for yourself. Don't Mish-morize yourself.
ross...I can't buy a side by side fridge for 400 but I can by a formerly 1M dollar house for 700K. if I wait another 6 to 12 months I might get it for 500K. Prior values may have been extreme but it is a massive decline in price that can not be overlooked.
In Orange County, our assessed value increased and our property taxes went up the maximum amount allowed by good ol' Prop 13.
Without Prop 13, I am positive they'd have the balls to jack up our taxes even more.
MP
Delivering messages competently is a skill that's been in short supply in this country for some years, so I can understand your respect for your post-woman.
The Icelanders are deep kimshe. I expect to hear about a lot of them emigrating elsewhere. It's going to be a mess.
On a more serious note, since the 700B$ bill passed I know of 11 people that were barely hanging on that walked from their debt. 10 in the last 4 days.
The recent flow of data suggests the economy is weak.
Growth is weaker.
U.S. in a recession.
The data suggests, no growth at all.
Growth in the fourth quarter contracting.
Huh?
Does the official definition of "recession" need to be changed, or maybe the whole concept is not valid?
It is interesting that one G7 country has managed to avoid the need for nationalizing its major banks - Canada. It is, I'm sure, a coincidence that Canada is also the only G7 country that has managed to balance its federal books.
Canada also has universal health care.
"Delivering messages competently is a skill ..."
She has always delivered. I get a lot of express items. She is the only one who literally goes through deep snow, water, etc. to get them here.
Of course, there's always something nice in the mail box for her and her family around the holidays.
bailout triggers more forclosures.
What is 'irony' for $500 Alex?
Anonymous writes:
bailout triggers more forclosures.
Yep, Unintended Consequence?
The Icelanders are deep kimshe.
Didn't they get the memo from AllenM? The Velvet Fist of Government will make it all OK (in Iceland, I have a feeling the government would actually be the first place you'd get a bwahahaha over that theory).
Non Nobel Stiglitz The free market ideology just doesn't work.
Joseph Stiglitz won the Nobel in 2001.
The Icelanders are deep kimshe.
MLM, actually I should have said "deep" kimshe. Anyway, I've read that many of them have "currency basket" car and home loans. That means their principal is rising. Bad news all the way around.
Canada is a fine place. Good national health insurance. Banks in better shape than most. Boom the last few years from oil and mining and real estate, but bad news for manufacturing hurt badly by the rising Loonie (Canadian
.
It is a saner country than the US, but Canada is going to have its problems, too, about 1 year or so behind the US. Real estate bubbles busting, oil and metal prices sinking, no demand to pick up manufacturing.
Maybe it won't be as bad as the US or Iceland, but Canada is going to hurt, too.
True enough that they will not start from the same budget pit that the US is starting from - Canada did not go crazy with mindless tax cuts, nor did it send its army to Iraq (just Afghanistan, where too many C's have been killed).
Canada did not go crazy with mindless tax cuts
Isn't this past tense? From what I've read recently, the provinces are racing to the bottom of the barrel with corporate tax cuts in order to lure/retain corporations.
Now It's Official: Treasury Can't Influence How Banks Use Cash Infusion
Per Bloomberg, Treasury operatives have admitted, despite Henry Paulson's protestations to the contrary, that the government can only hope for the best in how the nine banks given a collective $125 billion cash infusion early in the week make use of the loot
Now It’s Official: Treasury Can’t Influence How Banks Use Cash Infusion « naked capitalism
Don't know if anybody else caught the Brad DeLong interview on Bloomberg this evening. His take was that all other approaches had been discredited, and only Bernanke's idea of giving banks extra capital had a chance of working. Key question: will they lend the money out? Ruh roh.
Joe, as you know, this is a global downturn. Everyone gets hurt. Eventually and in varying degrees.
@ are you kidding,
Jeez, if an idiot buys a T-Bone for $15 a pound when the going price is $5, and now will only pay $5 a pound, that ain't deflation. That's reality.
Houses sell at replacement cost less depreciation. Anyone who would EVER pay more than that needs a straight jacket.
Deflating a bubble in an asset class is NOT deflation.
Think of this. If oil was $35/barrel, how much could be produced at a profit. If oil was $35/barrel, how much more would we use?
Cost inputs are such that the break even for food production, energy extraction et al are platformed HIGHER FOREVER in whatever fiat medium you choose.
The only deflation I can see is moving the decimal point on your pieces of money.
Canada is going to hurt, too...
For sure. Can't have 3/4 of exports heading for a recessionary market and not feel impact. That said, based on what's happened so far, I like their chances more than most.
Trichet Calls for Return to the `Discipline' of Bretton Woods
Item 8.01. Other Events
On October 13, 2008, Morgan Stanley (the "Company") issued a press release announcing that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. ("MUFG") closed on a $9 billion equity investment in the Company that gives MUFG a 21% ownership interest in the Company on a fully diluted basis. The investment is part of a previously announced global strategic alliance. Under the revised terms of the transaction, MUFG has acquired approximately $7.8 billion of perpetual non-cumulative convertible preferred stock with a 10 percent dividend and a conversion price of $25.25 per share, and approximately $1.2 billion of perpetual non-cumulative non-convertible preferred stock with a 10 percent dividend. A copy of the press release is being filed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference in its entirety.
Basel
True enough, though I meant income and other personal taxes (sales, property, etc). Canadians pay for National health, etc. But at the corporate level you are right, it is becoming an ugly spiral.
Mr Cloudy...dont forget your own housing bubble that is about to burst. That should be a ton of fun for you all.
Whenever the US catches a cold, we get the flu. That's what happens when we have only one customer for our exports.
I tried telling them, but they wouldn't listen. oh well...
"Bretton Woods"
Yeah, a new monetary regime is coming, whether the US likes it or not.
Wo/man - no matter.
I hold all wo/man responsible -
We give birth to the male species -
And we fail to guild our son.
Shame on US.
Fore woman bore the male from the womb, yet she does not teach him.
I actually thought Bretton Woods was going to be the subject of the first Conjure dispatch.
That means their principal is rising. Bad news all the way around.
My current take is we might get a flavor for our eventual fate by watching what happens in Iceland over the next couple quarters.
Probably not going to be pretty there.
That is a problem - and this is an affluent area. If the government doesn't step in there could be trouble, but I don't see how they could not step in.
Pavel Chichikov | 10.15.08 - 12:41 am | #
Pavel every time someone brings up socialism, you tell some scary story about the Soviets. Now you want some back?
mp:
TINFOIL HAT ALERT
What are Conjure's thoughts regarding a dual purpose behind the LIBOR gaming:
(1) Shocking CBs into action.
(2) Delivering U.S. election to Obama.
"I actually thought Bretton Woods was going to be the subject of the first Conjure dispatch."
Conjure has been mumbling a lot about regimes lately.
mp,
Bretton Woods is a con. Actually Bretton Woods is IN Conn.
It's just a clearing procedure with rules. No one ever paid attention anyway.
That's what happens when we have only one customer for our exports.
You guys tried selling stuff to china?
Heard they be swallowing commodities like M&Ms.
well, regime change was all the rage a few years ago...perhaps it will come back in vogue.
RhodesianGreenbackinAZ writes:
I actually thought Bretton Woods was going to be the subject of the first Conjure dispatch.
I also thought it would be about the new monetary system or the Great Transition in general. I will wear my reading glasses instead of a diaper for the next one.
mp gives the Post Frau conjure's offspring for xmas
mp - Don't know if you've picked up on recent comments from Europe, including Sarkozy, saying that we "need to discuss" current international financial system. Sounds like BW is on the table.
Nov 4, Prol Geoff, Nov 4.
Damon..., Conjure doesn't give a hooting hell about politics. Neither do I.
The only politics the London banks have--or any banker for that matter--is spelled M-O-N-E-Y.
The only politics the London banks have--or any banker for that matter--is spelled M-O-N-E-Y.
The only presidents that matter are the dead ones... and ben franklin, too.
"Canada did not go crazy with mindless tax cuts, nor did it send its army to Iraq (just Afghanistan, where too many C's have been killed)."
IIRC, at least some of those C's had their fate delivered by a US 500lb bomb. Good times. (/sarcasm)
"Sounds like BW is on the table."
The US Treasury and the Fed will try to use their testosterone to bluff their way around, but I think EVERYTHING is now on the table.
Europe and Asia will make demands, and they'll make them stick.
I think the EU and Brits calling the shots this week with Paulson following meekly is a sign of what is to come. No more unipolar financial world.
I loved John Stewart's video pastiche on Paulson's abrupt cave in.
Federal National Mortgage Association
Form 10-Q
For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2008
Re: AFS = available-for-sale
Gross unrealized losses as of June 30, 2008 related to our investments in Alt-A private-label securities and subprime private-label securities classified as AFS totaled $3.9 billion and $3.6 billion, respectively.
For the second quarter and first six months of 2008, we recognized net fair value gains on our investments in subprime private-label wraps classified as trading of $428 million and $377 million, respectively. We did not recognize any fair value gains or losses on our investments in Alt-A private-label wraps during this period. Gross unrealized losses related to our investments in subprime private-label wraps classified as AFS totaled $14 million as of June 30, 2008. We did not have any gross unrealized gains or losses on our investments in Alt-A private-label wraps as of June 30, 2008.
The estimated fair value of our AFS securities decreased to $245.2 billion as of June 30, 2008 from $293.6 billion as of December 31, 2007. Gross unrealized losses related to these securities totaled $11.2 billion as of June 30, 2008, compared with $4.8 billion as of December 31, 2007. The increase in gross unrealized losses during the first six months of 2008 was primarily due to significantly wider spreads during the period, which reduced the fair value of substantially all of our mortgage-related securities, particularly our private-label mortgage-related securities backed by Alt-A, subprime, and commercial multifamily loans. We discuss our process for assessing our AFS investment securities for other-than-temporary impairment below.
As of June 30, 2008, we pledged a total of $736 million of available-for-sale (AFS) securities, which the counterparties had the right to sell or repledge. As of December 31, 2007, we pledged a total of $538 million, comprised of $531 million of AFS securities, $5 million of trading securities, and $2 million of loans held for investment, which the counterparties had the right to sell or repledge.
Speaking of politics, I guess we got another minority Conservative government here. Did it even cross any of your ken that we were having a federal election today?
Interesting comments coming out of ECB and London. Also interesting that in three days EU and Canada begin negotiations on what would essentially be Canadian entry into the EU.
Will be interesting to see how that plays out with the current NAFTA situation. And with currency "regime change".
Comrade Canadien avec popcorn: Don't you guys have a Queen?
Who knew?
Yes, Weather Helm. Very memorable for some of my friends.
Some of us noticed Mssr. Canadien avec popcorn. What's your level of cynicism regarding who gets elected? Do you give a hooting hell about politics?
"Don't you guys have a Queen?"
The UK had a queen. His name was Freddie Prince, but he died.
Now a woman named Elizabeth took his place.
Canadian
I knew, I cared..
We have an election on nov 8th, looking to get conservativeminority govt too...
.
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
Comrade Canadien avec popcorn: Don't you guys have a Queen?
I don't think I know anybody who's ever had a queen. And even if I did they probably wouldn't ever admit it.
.
Evil men do not have a loving mother.
I dunno, if God came to me and asked which do I prefer, to die by 500lb bomb, or to die by 400lb bomb, I think I'd choose 500lb bomb. You know, go out with more of a bang, eh? So maybe those Canucks just got lucky.
Popcorn Avec Canadien
Knowledge only runs from the North to the South, information only runs from the South to North.
I regularly have long arguments with friends in Toronto about US politics.
A few Americans know that you can actually see Canada from some parts of the US, including Alaska.
Ross, go do some reading and educate yourself before you go on about inflation. It's painful to listen to you spout giberish and make disparaging comments about Mish. Not that I think Mish is God, but at least he makes a solid argument for his position.
mp: I ask as timing seems curious.
Via Reggie Middleton:
http://boombustblog.com/
... Here's the real world:
The problem with the netting argument is that everyone is assuming bank B has the 80% to cough up, which they don't because they bought 80% protection from insolvent monoline MBIA to hedge them against bank A, but insolvent mononline MBIA reinsured with insolvent monoline Ambac, who sold protection to banks A, B, C, and D at 120x leverage and can't pay all of them at once.
Hence, bank C is f1cked, because bank A is f2cked by bank B, who got f3cked by MBIA who is currently getting f4cked by Ambac who can't pay everybody (or maybe even anybody, now), hence can generally be considered to be f5cking everybody involved.
Even common sense tends to evade these smart people. This is what happens when you are allowed to write OTC insurance without reserves, an exchange and regulations!
I expect this whole house of cards to collapse any time now. The problem is the revolution will not be televised. ...
A few Americans know that you can actually see Canada from some parts of the US, including Alaska.
I can almost see Canada from my porch, on a clear day.
freddy mercury
I should explain my political remark.
I don't need a Bush, a McCain, an Obama, or a Pat Robertson, for that matter, to provide me with something to believe in.
The only thing I want them to do--expect them to do--is to make the goddamned trains run on time.
The problem is that all of them insist on meddling. They meddle domestically. They meddle overseas. They find causes. They create causes.
Although I'm not opposed to humanitarian efforts, I don't believe in causes or ideologies.
Not any more.
"A few Americans know that you can actually see Canada from some parts of the US, including Alaska."
Not so sure about that. I've been to Juneau and Skagway, and hard as I looked, I saw no Canada. Must of been buried under a glacier or something.
RE
The revolution might still be televised, but the flat panel TVs will have been repossessed.
"freddy mercury"
May he Rest in Peace.
They meddle overseas. They find causes. They create causes.
God save The Queen!
freddy mercury
One of the best ever and that includes the band.
The reason the government cannot make the trains run on time is, uh...like because many Americans do not have trains. And like the Iraq and...
MP
"make the goddamned trains run on time"
except for the "goddamned," I'm pretty sure that's a party slogan that Conjure heard once upon a time.
The revolution might still be televised, but the flat panel TVs will have been repossessed.
Joe, we might have to return to rabbit ears.
freddy mercury
Front-man for the ages, that one. RIP.
"I'm pretty sure that's a party slogan that Conjure heard once upon a time."
Conjure was there.
Cannabis
Yes, quite right. One of my slogans is: God damn it, make some trains!
"Some of us noticed Mssr. Canadien avec popcorn. What's your level of cynicism regarding who gets elected? Do you give a hooting hell about politics?"
The Conservative leader, Stephen Harper, called an early election here because his strategists thought that McCain was going to be crushed in your election and the debacle would rub off on Conservatives everywhere to his detriment.
My level of cynicism? I think that our politicos are generally all tools for somebody or something, but at least none of them have shat all over our constitution in pursuit of whatever ends yet so I'll give 'em that. But then what do I know, I voted Green.
One of the things I respected about Eisenhower was his ability as an administrator. He knew how to keep the bureaucracy in line. He also knew how to get results.
but at least none of them have shat all over our constitution in pursuit of whatever ends
Think we're about 100 years past that down here in the cellar.
I believe the Queen can throw out the results of the election, no?
MP
Very true, and Eisenhower also knew both why and how to keep from sending troops to Vietnam. In my book that cancels out his hand up to Nixon. Plus Eisenhower stood up in Little Rock.
So, let met get this straight:
Congress, in opposition to its own constituents, decided to force US Taxpayers to borrow $700 billion and give it to Wall Street. The hope is that Wall Street then lends it back to us, so that dumbshit Joe 6 Pack will now owe the money two times.
Did I get that right?
Is it also right that Congress received huge numbers of messages from constituents insisting "No!" and they did it anyway?
And the money goes at the request of George "Dead or Alive" W Bush and Henry "Golden Sacks" Paulson?
Just want to make sure it wasn't a bad dream.
Eisenhower was one of my favorite presidents. FWIW.
I also like Willy Wonka, so, go figure.
Asia down, LEAN HOGS FUTUREs down, Treasury yields down,
The U.S. dollar may weaken before data that economists predict will show the nation's retail sales fell at a faster pace as job losses and a housing slump curb spending.
The yen could get support from the stock market decline as it shows investors aren't completely ready to take on risk,'' said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo.The outlook for the U.S. economy doesn't look good, and this will drag the dollar lower.'
uropean Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said officials reshaping the world's financial system should try to return to the ``discipline'' that governed markets in the decades after World War II.
Perhaps what we need is to go back to the first Bretton Woods, to go back to discipline,'' Trichet said after giving a speech at the Economic Club of New York yesterday.It's absolutely clear that financial markets need discipline: macroeconomic discipline, monetary discipline, market discipline.'
Both the role and effects of CDS in the current market turmoil have been greatly exaggerated,'' Robert Pickel, chief executive officer of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, said in testimony before the Senate Committee for Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry yesterday. ``To say that CDS were the cause, or even a large contributor, to that turmoil is inaccurate.''
Credit-default swap trading expanded 100-fold since 2001 as insurance companies, hedge funds and investors used the derivatives to protect against bond losses and speculate on companies' ability to repay debt. Lawmakers and regulators have called for more oversight of the $54.6 trillion market after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which was among the top 10 backers of the contracts.
Blaming credit-default swaps for the credit crunch ``reflects confusion of the various financial products that have been developed in recent years,'' Pickel told lawmakers. The securities have a beneficial role to play in helping financial markets allocate risk, he said.
``It's absolutely clear that financial markets need discipline: macroeconomic discipline, monetary discipline, market discipline.''
Translation: Never let the Americans out of your sight again!
On Eisenhower, he hired some really bright folks (including Chalmers Johnson, for you fans of his work) to head up the Rand Corporation.
I think LeMay was involved, too.
On second thought, well, even Babe Ruth didn't bat a thousand.
"but at least none of them have shat all over our constitution in pursuit of whatever ends"
Your Constitution, which allows the monarch to dissolve Parliament, is not worth shitting on.
All the more reason to vote for McCain. Nothing like a big new war to get out of depression.
"I think LeMay was involved, too."
LeMay, like Conjure, had a very high testosterone level. Eisenhower respected his abilities and could control him. Others couldn't.
Early in his career, Paulson was a staffer for John Erlichman. It appears that imprinting stuck.
Paulson vs. Bank Execs: Who is telling the truth?
Yves is on a roll.
McCain please clarify for us dopes that you are kidding.
.
I believe the Queen can throw out the results of the election, no?
yogi | 10.15.08 - 1:43 am | #
I'm not sure about that. She has a lot of power being the head of state and all but they are mostly symbolic powers. She might be able to but it would certainly provoke a constitutional crisis if she did.
When does intrade start laying odds that Paulson ends up in jail before he dies?
Why aren't you sure? Even I know better than you.
I was one of Yellen's GSIs at Cal. She was ahead of many others at the Fed. I think she probably knew more in 2005 than she let on. In her position she can't say too much. I sent her some data on this back in 2005 and told her how worried I was and I think she understood how overvalued housing was. To the extent anyone at the Fed fully understood the amount of CDs exposure, is hard to say. To the extent that they understand how hard it is to get out of a credit bubble, I think they know. They just can't come out and say "hey people you are all screwed....."
Dreadnought Sclachtschiff writes:
Both the role and effects of CDS in the current market turmoil have been greatly exaggerated,'' Robert Pickel, chief executive officer of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, said in testimony before the Senate Committee for Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry yesterday. ``To say that CDS were the cause, or even a large contributor, to that turmoil is inaccurate.''
I don't know many of the players, but that guy, Pickel, is the one I most want to see in chains.
Eisenhower also had a very high testosterone level, but didn't show it in public.
A few years ago, I had several conversations with one of Eisenhower's bodyguards and learned some interesting things.
Eisenhower's staff ran like a "sewing machine," which is what you would expect and used the stun gun method of leadership. You did what was expected and were rewarded. Otherwise, you got knee-capped.
Ike also had JF Dulles as Sec of State. Dulles refusal to talk with Ho Chi Minh led inevitably to US involvement into the Franco-Indochinese war, with disastrous results.
We fought a war over it. You played ball.
Pickel is the kind of guy that will get sucker punched walking down the street. After that 60 minutes interview, I'd be careful if I were him. Fat, smug and stupid is no way to go through life.
"Ike also had JF Dulles as Sec of State. Dulles refusal to talk with Ho Chi Minh led inevitably to US involvement into the Franco-Indochinese war, with disastrous results"
No argument there.
I'm Robert Pickel, and I'm a sack of shate :
Redirect Notice
Utter claptrap.
Your Constitution, which allows the monarch to dissolve Parliament, is not worth shitting on.
yogi | 10.15.08 - 1:52 am | #
Uh, no you have that kinda wrong. She is actually required to dissolve Parliament at the request of the outgoing Prime Minister when an election is called.
You fucking ignorant assclown.
Ho's story is an interesting one because an OSS team saved his life in 1945. Ho was actually quite pro-American at the beginning, and one could actually have called him a nationalist early on, but he soured later.
I guess he had to find someone to butter his bread.
Constitution.
Bill of Rights.
Executive, Legislative, Judicial.
Remember.
.
oops
outgoing = incumbent
douchebag
Pickel also said "There has never been a better time to buy a Credit Default Swap than right now!"
comrade canadian
our systems have better integrity, the bush years would never happen to us, our prime ministers get rolled by the people when they lose the plot..
don't bother with yogi, american exceptionalism at its ugliest..
Dulles also had a hand in the installation of the Shah of Iran with the coup against PM Mossadegh; installation of a banana republic in Guatamale; and, oh, a little bit of Nazi support until 1935. He is credited with the phrase "The United States of Americans does not have friends; it has interests."
He developed brinksmanship as a tool of US foreign policy, and was modeled by later administrations, especially Reagan's.
While Ike may have burnished his reputation as a great president with his outgoing speech warning against the military-industrial complex, his selection and support of Dulles foreshadowed the next 50 years of soured US military involvement around the globe.
I just like using the word assclown.
Ho's story is an interesting one because an OSS team saved his life in 1945,... but he soured later...
Having your country delivered back into colonialism will do that to you.
"our prime ministers get rolled by the people when they lose the plot.."
I particularly enjoy the question and answer period. It's always interesting--and entertaining--to see some back-bencher kick a prime minister in the ass.
The recent flow of economic data suggests that the economy was weaker than expected in the third quarter, probably showing essentially no growth at all. Growth in the fourth quarter appears to be weaker yet, with an outright contraction quite likely. Indeed, the U.S. economy appears to be in a recession.
Yeller, and we pay you for this?
mp writes:
"Ike also had JF Dulles as Sec of State. Dulles refusal to talk with Ho Chi Minh led inevitably to US involvement into the Franco-Indochinese war, with disastrous results"
No argument there.
....
I would argue it.
The US was involved in propping up the French in Indochina since 1945-46, under Truman. After Dien Bien Phu in 1954, Eisenhower guided the US away from intervening, despite talk among some of his advisors of invading and/or using nukes.
It is also true that Eisenhower allowed and enabled the construction of a government in the South under Ngo Dinh Diem, and thereby scuttled the promise of the Geneva Accords that elections should be held across the country, elections that Ho Chi Ming would have won handily. The war the US entered followed from that. But Eisenhower's decision not to invade in 1954 was momentous, all the same.
Not perfect . . .
mp
say gidday to conjure...
"The Executive Government and Authority of and over Canada is hereby declared to continue and be vested in the Queen."
Ours begins, "We the People".
Better get get your facts straight, your Constitutional crisis is coming too.
No doubt Bush pulled strings in Florida to get Caylee Anthony's mom arrested. Just try to keep us all distracted for one more day, and the next day... so on. I suspect he has also been setting fires in California as well. Gave a big call to his friend Santa Ana... "Hey, Santa... I'd like an early Christmas present...".
So that takes up Wednesday news cycle... and of course Thursday everyone will eventually be talking about "South Park" at the water cooler... not that there's anything wrong with South Park... can't wait until they do an episode about this whole economy...
mp - HO was definitely pro-American. The Vietnamese nationalists hated the Chinese, who had occupied the peninsula on and off for much of the previous millenium. VN nationalism took a back seat during WW2, and only re-emerged after Japan's defeat. Then, when Mao's imperial designs on China's southern borders became evident, Ho approached the US for assistance.
Dulles said, effectively, HELL no. That led to Ho finding someone else - the Soviet's - to butter his bread.
@exit
I think Eisenhower got sucked in by the Dulles brothers.
I also think he saw clandestine operations as a way of accomplishing objectives short of a full-blown war.
The Dulles brothers, IMO, were two genuine pieces of crap.
Anyone heard any rumours about tungsten mining in SE Asia at that time?
Can you say Australia 1975, assclown?
How exactly did they think it ok to have two brothers running CIA and State? No wonder things got forked up.
yogi
we have queens representitives, usually citizens, acting on the queens behalf who sign laws or reject them.
how has the 'we the people' worked lately. Bailouts that the people rejected?
We joke about getting one day of democracy every three years, but our politicians a more accountable because they are there at pleasure of the queen.
she can sack them on our behalf..
On a completely different note, why is the Nikkei on a moonshot?
Bush has not declared martial law. Doesn't mean he won't. The letter of the law counts, not for everything, but for a lot.
"How exactly did they think it ok to have two brothers running CIA and State?"
An acquaintance, long since dead, once told me that he hoped Allen Dulles was "burning in the hottest corner of the fires of hell."
All this because of what the Dulles brothers did to General Donovan. They were a couple of real power hungry bastards.
That's the lamest rationale for benevolent dictatorship I've heard in a long time. Canadians don't even know who their chief executive is on paper.
yogi, I wouldn't screw with those guys too much. After all, they've got about a thousand years worth of experience with government.
mp you can go back if you like. We bailed them out so they can kneel and kiss the Queen's ring. I thought this was the air of honesty thread, sorry.
I should have also mentioned that he hoped J. Edgar Hoover, who he used to play poker with at the Army-Navy Club, was also burning in the hottest corner of the fires of hell.
I thought he suspended posse comitus?
Whitlam was biffed out by the queens representitive under Australian law, he was obliged to act and not directed by lizzie..
Joe Schmo - my history is somewhat divergent. My father emigrated from VN in 1956; his forefathers were landowners in central VN (Hue). Family story goes that Ho worked hand in hand with his later opponents during WW2 and immediately thereafter in the attempt to secure VN independence.
Nationalism was ALWAYS the first call. Communism came later out of necessity in order to secure Soviet aid. Bitter enmity ensued; my grandfather and father despised Ho for permitting their land to be confiscated. However, that doesn't absolve Eisenhower for permitting that POS Dulles a free rein. Had JFD, who some regard as a closet fascist (not just for his support of Hitler), provided material support in the form of opposing France's attempts to re-establish a colony, it's doubtful that 50k plus US soldiers would have perished in that entanglement.
I remember, oh so long ago, when Alan Greenspan was talking about a thirty-three percent chance of a recession, the economists were saying that it was irresponsible to mention recession because of the chance of a self-fulfilling prophecy. So given this reluctance, is this Fed speak (by Yellen) for the coming Not-So-Great Depression?
"I thought this was the air of honesty thread, sorry."
Hey, yogi, it was just some friendly advice. You can take it any way you want, but no offense was intended.
Just keep in mind that, believe it or not, they've bailed our asses out on numerous occasions.
I guess you missed my point. Just because the Queen, or her "representatives", hasn't exercised power in a long time, don't assume the power has dissolved. If England runs out of North Sea oil you'll hear from her.
Key question: will they lend the money out? Ruh roh.
--MLM
I'm curious. Who would banks lend to, and to what purpose?
Are people going to buy new cars or homes? Don't think so.
Are businesses going to expand? Don't think that, either.
Are entrepreneurs going to borrow start-up costs for any kind of productive venture? Or R&D? Slim chance of that, also.
In every article I read it is implied that the banks could lend if they wanted to, but it's a matter of trust, counterparty suspicion, etc.
Oh, sure, everybody and their third cousin wanted to borrow on the way up, when you just couldn't lose no matter what you did with the cash.
But now? Sorry. One of the problems with a depression.
There are no borrowers.
@yogi
I didn't miss your point. I'm just asking you to not go postal over it.
Life is too short.
mp - there are some astonishing stories of corruption that follow from the VN war. I had literally dozens of refugees stream through my parents house in 1975.
Mom later told me that the bulk of those who got out under the wire were those who had enough gold on their persons to bribe their way to the helicopters. And of course, those people were the war profiteers. Highly "capitalist", of course, and rabidly anti-communist.
Hoocoodanode their adopted country would revert to corporate socialism? OK, OK, corpo-fascism, whatever.
Was referring to Andy in NZ, not you.
exit,
I had heard a story that Ho approached the U. S. at Versailles after WW 1 for aid in kicking France out.
Alas, Wilson wouldn't tolerate any such discussion.
yogi
the commonwealth relationship with lizzie and phil is all good, they bailed on us to join the EEC, but they can have as much lamb and butter as they want..
Did bush suspend posse comitus (serious question)?
Andy in NZ
Some of my compatriots - roughly 50% according to one poll - effectively agree with Bush that the Geneva Conventions are "quaint" because they say it is just peachy to torture.
I don't think there has been a similar opinion poll done on habeus corpus, probably because most people don't know what it is, let alone the pathetically informal constitutional tradition from which its American form derives(uh . . . used to derive). Unlike torture, which is something little kids learn by pulling the wings off flies, one can only learn about habeus corpus by going to school or reading.
Similarly, most Americans do not know that the word "god" was inserted into the national "Pledge of Allegiance" (which is offered to the flag) only in the 1950s, in a fit of godly anti-communism. Most believe that the deist and Enlightenment influenced authors of the US Constitution made this a "Christian" nation.
I think the 2nd Amendment (the right to bear arms) is by far the best known part of the Constitution among most Americans.
Anyway . . . how are the sheep and sauvignon blanc doing out your way?
Yeah I'm one of the most vocal critics of the US government and it's failings over the past 50 years, but Canadians should not be giving out constitutional advice. They are royal subjects.
barry -
We damnable slants couldn't be trusted. Upthread someone mentioned racism on the rise during troubled economic times. I would concur. I "pass" due to some miscegenation. Still, Asia (to generalize) was viewed as colony territory, and it's leaders were essentially given the head-pat treatment.
There there, aren't you CUTE for wanting independence! Now, give us your resources.
"Similarly, most Americans do not know that the word "god" was inserted into the national "Pledge of Allegiance" (which is offered to the flag) only in the 1950s, in a fit of godly anti-communism."
My father's uncle--California American Legion--was one of the movers in that initiative.
Yeah, a new monetary regime is coming, whether the US likes it or not.
mp | 10.15.08 - 1:17 am
I made this same point last night. You can bet TPTB (meaning EU and BRIC, ha-ha) are striving right now to determine a plausible replacement for the dollar reserve currency.
The larger question is, will they come up with one and slide it into place in time.
I am not sanguine.
It's Posse Comitatus, and no, not officially. He has violated it, and there will be a response, but everything depends on what happens in the next months.
joe shmoe
the ladies are fine
the wife tells me the sav is ok, but try a pinot gris..
I get frustrated because all systems of govt are imperfect. But having a constitution is a guarantee of well nothing...
.
"The Executive Government and Authority of and over Canada is hereby declared to continue and be vested in the Queen."
Ours begins, "We the People".
Better get get your facts straight, your Constitutional crisis is coming too.
yogi | 10.15.08 - 2:11 am | #
Holy crap dude.... your quote is from the British North America Act of 1867. We got rid of that document and wrote a new one in 1982 when Pierre Trudeau repatriated the constituion from Great Britain to Canada.
I couldn't recognize the quote at first but really didn't think that anybody would possibly manage to stick their foot quite that far up their ass and mangle their own argument as to quote a document that hasn't been used for almost 30 years. Wow.
You so ignorant.
"Uncle Kenny writes:
It's like there is some kind of time lapse at the Fed."
The Fed gets all its information freshly bounced off celestial bodies, hence the light-year delay in its analysis.
yogi
apologies for spelling
I lived in the UK for 3 years, I am not worried about them mounting an invasion. the falklands was an aberation for my lords and masters
"Some of my compatriots - roughly 50% according to one poll - effectively agree with Bush that the Geneva Conventions are "quaint" because they say it is just peachy to torture."
Yeah, and by violating the Geneva Convention, they're giving license for the torture of captured American soldiers. Having served as infantryman, I personally know the implications of this are enormous and terrible.
You reap what you sow.
هيمة القلوب
منتدى هيمة القلوب
مدونة هيمة القلوب
I know I'll regret this.
but Canadians should not be giving out constitutional advice. They are royal subjects.
yogi | 10.15.08 - 2:30 am | #
That's mighty white of you, yogi. Opinions are part and parcel of this forum, but because someone hails to the queen they can't offer any?
Please - if you disagree with their political system, that's totally fine. Skewer it as you claim to skewer ours. But it's so not worth getting worked up over. They can be just as wrong as any citizen. Maybe we'll even be lucky enough to learn something from someone from outside the system.
Or not. Just, chill out, dude. Me, I like the idea of Freddy Mercury singing right about now.
queen - Google Videos
just peachy to torture.
Yep, just as long as you ask them about terrorism. That's going to be my defense.
Prosecutor: Why did you torture your neighbor? For fun?
Me: Yes, but I asked him what he knew about terrorism,...
You'll note that the rationale for torture doesn't include any thought that they might not know anything about the subject and might be as innocent, or more innocent as all the releases for Gitmo.
"The larger question is, will they come up with one and slide it into place in time."
Well, unirealist, we definitely share that concern.
a plausible replacement for the dollar reserve currency.
Oh, and I gauran-effing-tee you that whatever the basket is, it will include the old stand-by gold.
Which, incidentally, will make India the richest per-capita nation in the globe.
That Act is in full force and effect, and the quote was not amended by the ACT of 1982.
The arrogance and hypocrisy of the British Empire carries down to its provincial subjects. But yes, I fully support the First Amendment, and they can criticize us all they like.
"...it will include the old stand-by gold."
It certainly wouldn't be the first time.
yogi
Bear in mind that Fleet Streeters, IIRC, were first to demonstrate the lovely qualities of derivatives to waiting investors. Wall Street shenanigans followed this most English of capital inventions.
That said, Brown's capital injections seem to be superior to Paulson's.
Exit
I appreciate the family story.
On the larger history, I agree completely with you on the larger judgement - would have and should have saved 50,000 American lives and about 2 million Vietnamese, plus maybe a few million more Cambodians.
I also agree on the centrality of nationalism all the way through the 30 year war, 1945-1975, and also in the early 20th century, too, esp the 1920s-40s.
But a couple of quibbles. Ho was already a marxist by the end of the 1920s (no skin off my nose), connected to the International due to its anti-colonial bent.
The French war of reconquest started right at the end of WWII - Ho declared independence in August 1946, right? Borrowing the words of the US Declaration of Independence, too, I should add. Roosevelt had been broadly desirous of decolonization in French Indochina and elsewhere, partly out of sympathy, mainly as a way to break down barriers to American commercial access. But during the war Roosevelt equivocated a lot due to the need to maintain European allies' strength.
In 1946 and more clearly in 1947, Truman fell strongly on the side of the French and supported the French war of reconquest in Indochina. This fell in line with the Marshall Plan and Truman Doctrine, all about rebuilding the W European economies and making them bulwarks of anti-communism. That was all before Eisenhower came to office in 1953.
A year after Eisenhower was inaugurated, in 1954, the French fell at Dien Bien Phu, and Eisenhower decided not to intervenene but to force the negotiation of the Geneva Accords.
Then by 1956 Eisenhower decide to renege - more properly, to support Diem in reneging - on the geneva Accords call for national elections.
back to agreeing with you and others: the Dulles brothers were responsible for lots of havoc in Iran, Guatemala, Cuba, Philippines, and elsewhere. And Eisenhower must bear responsibilty, too.
But backing the French in their war in Indochina was Truman's mistake, not Eisenhower's.
unirealist, mp - What if the tinfoil hatter's are correct, and the gold reserves once stored in Knox are now dispersed? The US, knowing this, would be loathe to admit it, and would fight against the USD being removed as reserve currency that much the harder. Given that US GDP still constitutes some 25% of global output, this opposition can't be ignored or easily placated.
@joe shmoe 2:50
Damn! That was good!
You teach history?
.
yogi writes:
That Act is in full force and effect, and the quote was not amended by the ACT of 1982.
....................................
Well then, you've certainly put the lie to what must be the biggest event in Canada in the last fifty years.
The whole repatriation affair in the memories of everyone here that lived through it, as well as the subject as taught to every Canadian child in school, all a sham. Mister, you're amazing to see through that.
Wikipedia.... it's your friend, try it out.
I guess I remember when the Pistols' "God Save the Queen" was a hit here and banned in Britain.
Our system is better, our Bill of Rights stronger. That doesn't mean the humans we've elected are smarter or more honest by any means.
Or the ones what elected them it seems.
Exit, I think $US is going to continue to play a major role for years to come. Having said that, we must recognize that it has been compromised and that the rest of the world is now going to start to rumble over it.
I think the US will receive a come-uppance very soon and the proverbial political snowball will start rolling.
As to what the outcome will be, who knows? It depends on who has the grease at the time. I suspect that, at least initially, we'll end up with some kind of currency basket again. Unfortunately, there hasn't been very much luck with those.
MP
"My father's uncle--California American Legion--was one of the movers in that initiative."
We can't help who we're related to or what they do . . . .
More importantly, you don't fit in the category of "most Americans," not just because you knew about the god stuff and other things, but more importantly because you are just a figment of Conjure's imagination.
About that other question you asked, yes, that's what I do.
Or the ones what elected them it seems.
You better watch out. If we get Palin in office, she's gonna want to invade your ass on a mission from God.
You're in denial.
Do you have a Governor General?
Who "elects" him/her?
"If we get Palin in office, she's gonna want to invade your ass on a mission from God."
Conjure says, "BWAHAHAHA!"
"As the representative of The Queen in Canada, the Governor-General summons, opens and ends sessions of Parliament, reads the Speech from the Throne, gives Royal Assent to bills passed by the House of Commons and the Senate, signs State documents, and dissolves Parliament for an election. The Governor-General also presides over the swearing-in of the Prime Minister, the Chief Justice of Canada and cabinet ministers."
(Official and current)
I used to think the US Secretary of the Treasury was a bureaucrat with little policy making power.
mmmm...
I actually wouldn't mind invading her a....
oh never mind.
Why not do away with the charade, what are you afraid of?
As to what the outcome will be, who knows?
So is it likely to be planned, or just going to be an accidental invention of things that sort of work cause we need them to? I mean, has anyone started out thinking that they would be the reserve currency, or has everyone more or less fallen into the role because of stronger trade relations?
Joe Schmoe - concur with mp. I can readily admit that family stories might conflict with other observations, and that your views are more accurate.
If quibbles they be, I would suggest that given the regime change in 52, Eisenhower wasted a golden opportunity to drive a wedge in the ostensible communist brotherhood. Revisionism is of course ridiculous, but in hindsight there were real and serious divisions between Stalin / Kruschev and Mao, and they used VN as a proxy. Speculative, certainly, that Ho might have been persuaded to drop the communist orthodoxy given sufficient US aid, but from a geo-political standpoint, it would have put a us thumb to the noses of both the Soviets and Chinese, to 'steal', as it were, one of their vassals.
Remember, Ho was first a nationalist.
Kind of fun to cogitate. It never happened, so we'll never know.
I DO know that VN is now actively (and successfully) seeking to take manufacturing away from China. A US led firm based in Saigon oversees much of the infrastructure buildup, marketing, and Imp/Exp. check it out - the Gannon Group, in case you're interested.
I'm afraid of ignorant misinformed kittle trolls like yogi. And Sarah Palin's ass.
Why ask for her assent, if she has to always give it to you?
mp writes:
"If we get Palin in office, she's gonna want to invade your ass on a mission from God."
Conjure says, "BWAHAHAHA!"
....
That's the funniest, saddest and truest thing I've read all night. In between mosseburgers and plotting revenge on her ex-brother-in-law and denouncing Obama, Palin likes to talk about all those hungry markets. I can just see her getting a call from Jesus telling her to invade.
Time for a drink and a few hours of sleep before I wake up in a cold sweat worrying that Palin might get elected.
Well, no excuse for the Dulles cabal. But, like I said, even Babe Ruth didn't bat a thousand.
We were full of ourselves after WW2 and we walked around the world playing kingmaker.
Personally, I'd characterize Allen Dulles more in the Thomas Beckett sphere. YMMV. Anyway, we're at the tail end of that cycle. Our Republican branch has been living off their fumes for awhile now, the meter is reading "empty".
FD: party affiliation is just "color" to me.
Exit writes:
Joe Schmoe - concur with mp. I can readily admit that family stories might conflict with other observations, and that your views are more accurate.
Have a friend whose father was colonel for the South and aunt was Ho's doctor. Don't know if any or how many Vietnamese were ideologues, but the lack of rancor (the family goes back visiting) suggests more nationalism than anything else.
The State Department ("Foggy Bottom") has been, and probably always will be, populated by a bunch of crazies (I'm being polite here).
Anyway, my old acquaintance always told me, "Diplomacy is personal."
He was very aware of, and involved in, the Ho story early on. (Keep in mind the old OSS hands who populated CIA were far more capable than the anti-communist morons Dulles brought in).
Anyway, Envir Hoxha in Albania was another one. The US blew a chance there at the end of WWII because of a lot of ideological crap. Albania ended up rabidly communist when it could have ended up on "our" side, or at least neutral.
Exit
You're absolutely right about the US not having a clue about relations between the Soviets, China, and Vietnam in the 1950s and 60s. Not a clue. Total ideological blindspot, coupled with racism that also suggested China and Vietnam could not be making their own way. A kind of rigidity not unlike Paulson and Bush.
What if the tinfoil hatter's are correct, and the gold reserves once stored in Knox are now dispersed?
Exit, there's a fascinating if somewhat apocryphal story about the Federal Reserve gold under the Twin Towers being removed as 9/11 happened.
As for the US Treasury gold, there is deep suspicion on the part of some goldbugs that most of its stated reserves no longer exist. There's been no open audit of those reserves for many decades.
And much of whatever isn't physically gone is "loaned out" at very low interest rates.
Anyway, your point is well-taken. The US would bawl like a baby if it lost the dollar's reserve status. It's just that I think the shots are no longer being called by the US. We're just a third-world country with nukes, in the eyes of many.
BTW, like many of my generation I hated the "American Invasion" of Vietnam, and marched against it many times as a teenager. I am now convinced that it proved to be the downfall of the US, in the long run. Whichever side your family was on, if ever there was a war that never should have happened, it was that one.
Comrade Canadien avec popcorn writes:
I'm afraid of ignorant misinformed kittle trolls like yogi.
I was kind of hoping he could convince you of the errors of your ways and start you thinking of ways to throw off the shackles of tyranny and become independent,...like us.
That goes for New Zealand, too. Revolt!
All, Conjure and I wish you a good evening, no matter where you live.
It has been entertaining and, I would add, a learning experience.
As always.
sdtfs - I've only just begun (no, not the song) to get to know some of my 'people'. Not 'mine', actually, as being a half-quarter-quarter breed I didn't actually fit - anyways - VN young adults in the OC are pretty well "bananas" now.
Yellow outside / white inside. Some aspire to Yolk status (white outside yellow inside) and that of course leads to all kinds of screwy headgames.
Many speak halting or no mother tongue even with full bore 1st gen parents.
Lots of visits back to country. Some repatriation, as well, even by older anti-communists, as it becomes ever more evident that the old capitalist ways are returning to VN. Communism was a means to an end - ridding colonial masters, and redistribution of ill-gotten gains. Perhaps my forebears were 'bad capitalists' though of course I'd have to disagree.
But yes, nationalists first.
No violence needed, just remove the facade once and for all. It will feel good.
In Conjure We Trust.
Good night to all.
Symbolic gestures have a way of influencing thinking.
yogi writes:
Why ask for her assent, if she has to always give it to you?
yogi | 10.15.08 - 3:06 am |
It's all symbolism and tradition.
I'll leave you with two things to ponder.
anywhooo, night all.
Joe - inscrutable asians, you know. and we all look alike. LOL. Colonialists never believe that the locals might actually wield that machete upside their neck. That's one reason I think that Gandhi is held in such high esteem in the West. Because non-violent protest means the colonizers get to keep their heads. The alternative scares hell out of whitey.
Uni, mp - dollar hegemony will yield, grudgingly, unless scary sarah gets her way and mimics cheney - the non-negotiable american way of life.
Why, btw, is a lowered 'standard of living' for US citizens such a frightening prospect? Isn't one TV per house enough? Does every light in the house have to be on? Does not being able to eat grapes 24/7/365 mean that the commies win? I don't get it. Then again, it's late. Good night....
mp, joe shmoe, exit, unirealist and the rest.
Many thanks for that insightful discourse. It pains me greatly to see where the US is heading after seeing where it came from.
May there be a viable future for all of us.
Be safe and peace be with you all.
G'nite all-
It's symbolic of oppression, and the tradition of hereditary power (even reduced to just obscene wealth) is stupid.
I'll get the lights.
Important message from the banksters on Wall Street:
There's nothing wrong with Capitalism
There's nothing wrong with free enterprise
Don't try to make me feel guilty
I'm so tired of hearing you cry
EOM
Wawawawa
The Vietnamese nationalists hated the Chinese, who had occupied the peninsula on and off for much of the previous millenium.
Reminds me of my Chinese friend in Chengdu who dreamily told me of China's former control of Japan (1,000 years ago ?) Anyway , that's what the government is teaching.
There's a lot of ugly xenophobia just below the surface in Asia that can only end badly ....as China pushes past Japan economically, and the SE Asian countries try to grab manufacturing from China. Not to mention the Koreas and the US military presence in general.
Bankers in the UK already looking to revise the terms with the Treasury so that dividends can be paid.
I believe China still harbors resentment for Nanjing. I wouldn't call it xenophobia.
Bloomberg -- Paulson Lacks Leverage to Compel Banks to Put New Cash to Work -- Paulson Lacks Leverage to Make Banks Put Cash to Work (Update1) - Bloomberg.com -- "The truth of the matter is, they can't put a gun to their head and say you have to lend this money'
I work my ass off writing this shit and someday, this all gonna end!
Re: The reason this bailout wont work, is because we are bailing out fraud and trying to give value to derivatives that are worthless and then bailout a consortium of crooks with taxpayer cash. Look at Chrysler as a real example of government intervention. Chrysler had crappy cars, but turned around a product and motivated their workforce to be more efficient, and make a profit for the employees and the taxpayers, because of warrants.
Paulson and Bernanke are suggesting that taxpayers give these financial engineers unlimited shots at supercharging an $800 Billion taxpayer heist, and to roll the dice in a super-casino-bet, intended to wind down their trillion dollar bad bets. Wall street just crashed the global economy and now they wanna try doubling down and going for broke!
Looking back, bailing out Chrysler, essentially was a simple means to keep several thousand people in the business of building cars that could be sold to people that needed new transportation. If Chrysler would have failed, many of those union employees would have simply been forced to retrain and move on -- and the world would have gone on and the business of making cars would have gone on without them. Chrysler was not really that important in a global perspective. Failure was an option then, just as it is now and IMHO, there are crooked banks that need to go under ASAP.
Hence, when we look at the current argument of financial collapse and global systemic failure, we seem to have a system that has failed, versus a single entity. However, that is the fallacy of this ploy, i.e, to believe that if a few wall street derivative shops close, that the world will fall apart and that your local grocery store will not be able to use currency hedging and swaps and CDS and CDOs and SIVs and to bet the farm on bread futures and hamburger futures and soup derivatives and halloween candy that is linked to shorting toothpaste that uses LIBOR as a reset mechanism for hedging cornflakes.
The argument of the world crashing is bullshit and IMHO, the only thing that might crash -- hopefully will crash, will be the option grant compensation and synthetic careers of a shitload of wall street crooks that hopefully will spend the rest of their lives in nasty prison cells -- where the devil will be in the details!
Life will go on, without the crooks and the crooked banks and life will be better without them!
I will try a bit of a parable on the inflation/deflation discussion.
When the Dalai Lama visited Germany several years ago, he was fairly unnerved by the number of younger Germans that had adopted Buddhism due to its belief in reincarnation. The reason he was disturbed is that those Germans thought that having more than one life to party in sounded like a good thing, which in the Dalai Lama's eyes was so missing the point that it was essentially tragic. He even gently suggested that people holding such beliefs should not consider themselves Buddhists, as they simply did not understand what Buddhism was.
Inflation makes people poorer, and destroys the concept of money as a store of value. However, broadly speaking, as long as it does not become hyperinflation, inflation does not impact those at the top of the economic system. And assuming the political-economic system is able to handle the cure (Volcker being a modern example), inflation can be restrained. The cure is painful, and most economies, most of the time, will avoid it as long as possible (Germany being one of the exceptions, but then, everyone knows about Germany, inflation, and its results.)
Deflation makes people poorer, and destroys the concept of assets as a store of value (except for the most basic assets - land producing food has a value beyond the monetary - feudalism being a notable example). And once deflation becomes self-reinforcing, no one has found much of a cure beyond the old system being replaced, including many of those who had formerly been at the top losing their wealth and position. Which is why, generally, before deflation becomes self-reinforcing, all attempts are made to combat it.
Which didn't work in Japan, nor did it work in the Great Depression. What had been assumed to be wealth wasn't, and there was no way to bring it back.
Many people talking about prices are missing the point - neither inflation nor deflation make you better off.
However, what is happening now is the destruction of what had formerly assumed to be wealth, for example, the value of a house or a stock certificate in a retirement account.
Nothing has actually changed in the real world - but that is the problem, isn't it? Collectively, we are much poorer than we thought we were a year ago, and that fact won't simply go away.
Notice that I left stagflation off this list. Stagflation was something new, and though Volcker was able to break its back, in part, I think he got lucky. Which should never be neglected in these discussions, actually.
What you have left off in your discussion of rising prices has been the fall of interest rates on savings. I think the next few years will see the rise of stagflation's evil twin, which is still unnamed. This evil twin will cause the rate of return on essentially all investment and assets fall to somewhere around zero (or in some cases, actually turn negative due to taxes or regulations), while prices continue to increase.
I think this nightmare is haunting those who prefer to use such words as ZIRP or liquidity trap. It won't take much in the way of policy mistakes to nurture such - stagflation likely required Nixon's price controls to really lay its foundation. And why most Americans assume that the rest of the world will continue to buy Treasury debt as trillions of dollars are being created out of thin air mystifies me - no one was buying Argentina's bonds in 2001, regardless of the interest rates or discounts offered.
so much wrong thinking. The bailout may oray not fail but the details don't matter, the problem is fiat money.
The real failure was that few in the US acknowledged that the Cold War was real. A real reduction in spending and balanced accounts should have occurred after 1989.
We are much poorer, but only in dollar terms. My communication with you on this site is partly a product of the dotcom bust. We are still reaping the non-cash dividend. Of course the internet was first developed by academics, not for profit so much as to be easily able to share ideas.
Inflation works to the extent that the cost assumed by raising the dollar price of existing goods or assets is exceeded by the value of the new product financed by the inflation. More often than not it's just an abuse of government power. The old "cross of gold" arguments have merit, of course. If credit is locked up by an oligarchy which wants to just sit and get fat, it makes sense to print money and send it to workers/producers. Nothing radical, just a few points one way or the other in tax rates or a few New Deal 2.0 projects.
"A real reduction in spending and balanced accounts should have occurred after 1989."
Yes, it's one of the most poignant of the 'could have been' alternatives.
But if it had happened like that, bankers and militarists would have met with a drastic downsizing.
Enabled by fiat systems, bankers have no constraints. Neither does Congress or imperial dreamers.
My understanding is that fractional reserve lending requires an ever expanding rank of debtors just to tread water. And that a certain portion of them get thrown off the debt servicing treadmill on a regular basis.
What happens when the whole economy gets thrown off?
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