Maybe they should try cutting interest rates.

I feel like some evil genius watching my plan unfold.

Only I didn't order it, and those who did have no idea what's happening

Now, you listen to me! I want trading reopened right now. Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on!

Loophole:

Blankfein's $70 Million Would Survive Paulson's Rules (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

expect a whoosh up...they're gonna need the space for those wonderful job's numbers to come.

Ciao
MS

Comrade Serf Mike,
Do car buying one of 2 ways:
- write out exactly what you want (model, options, colour) and fax it to all the dealerships in your area and let them bid

• walk in at the end of the month and pick someone who young/desperate to make their quota. Then lead them on that you want financing, then later say you will pay up front and want no changes in the deal

Let them talk themselves tired and be short & specific with what you want

Wish I had more skin in the game at this point, but I'm not upset by the comeuppance.

Maybe they should try cutting interest rates.

Maybe it's time to reverse the TARP and just let the bad banks and bad debt default. It would be faster and more effective.

The bobbleheads said the survey ended on Oct 3 or so, well before the FAIL took off. But I don't see the methodology in the report. Anyone know what it is?

Free shipping?

So Bloomberg will no longer provide the TED spread?

Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance

No LoC's... That's Mad Max time, with a little lag in system, right?

Austin Tex,

It's also been exacerbated by speculators who only intended to flip the contract onward and never take delivery. China is also in a dispute with Rio Tinto about Iron Ore prices from Brazil, they can't hold out forever as they need the imports to maintain anywhere near current production. Now there is a bump in supply for the surge market in addition to declining demand.

3pm... put on your rally caps!

rally...race to the bottom!

World shipbuilding completions by countries (2005)

That's embarrassing - and it's been that way for a while.

"We are two very different people"

Like the Narrator and Tyler Durden in Fight Club?

Fight Club (1999) - Memorable quotes

NYSE down 439?
Dow down 466.66?

Silver down more?

Today's word for the day boys and girls is "decoupling".

PPT: Old Faithful

I doubt Obama will win NC although he is well organized at the grassroots level. When Charlotte's black ex-mayor ran against Jesse Helms twice, the polls overstated his support by about 3%. These were not bankers the polls missed but working class whites (J6P). If Obama polls >3% ahead I might think he has a chance.

More important to me is to send Dole back home to Kansas. She has been useless - or less.

Jim

Now, you listen to me! I want trading reopened right now. Get those brokers back in here! Turn those machines back on!
unearthly | 10.15.08 - 2:51 pm | #

Margin call gentlemen!

Best movie EVER!

@EvilHenryPaulson

I agree with you, that there are both seasonal forces afoot w/r/t China. Golden week, the Olympic disruption, but also the ore and coal needs increasing a plus.

But my point was that it seems to me that there are financial underpinnings to what's going on in charter demand, given exactly the kind of real issues you describe.

And if not, what IS going on at 3pm?

Short covering.

Get a life.

Jas
Jas Jain

Ironic. Rosebud.

But then again, Id have to say the events of the last year go pretty much against everything we've ever studied as well.

Bingo.

Me thinks it is time for 'lend or else' message

Lend to whom? Me?

I will never had debt in my life.

I will never have (or had) debt in my life.

Also a new 5 yr low. Very little of anything, oil or dry bulk, is moving, and in spite of the fall in prices, not being forecast to move.

I mentioned this yesterday, IMO we are going to be quite surprised about shortages in various commodities and other supply chain items sooner rather than later. The lack of LOC is the worst that can happen in times of JIT.

Most purely think in terms of demand destruction instead of also allowing for the problems of credit disruption.

This could really exacerbate our predicaments.

Good Catch Nemo!

From your link:
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity shipping rates plunged to the lowest in more than five years as a lack of trade finance left cargoes stranded and the global economic slowdown limited raw material demand.

Traders are finding it harder to get letters of credit that guarantee payments for goods, shipping executives said. Together with a slowdown in trade, that has contributed to this year's 82 percent drop in shipping costs for grain, coal and other commodities

So this may mean no lettuce in the stores, no Made in China winter coats, no after market auto parts,...

We already have the 100 mile diet but what do we do for consumer goods?

Forcing banks to lend money they were asked to borrow is silly. It's like forcing consumers to go spend their tax rebates.

CSC - What's the hourly rate for my own squad of Black Water fellows?

Who needs guns?

"I'm ready to use some of my econ books as kindling, while erecting shrine's to others."

Hehe. I should go re-read my micro book, cuz that's what we have now - a micro economy...

EvilHenryPaulson - Sweet.
I'm all set now.

Here in Portland, Oregon, Land Use Reviews required before development can proceed into permitting is a very reliable leading economic indicator. For the fiscal years 07-08 to 08-09 we are down 40% overall! I am trying to find out how this compares to the 01-02 recession.

But this is astounding. And this does not factor in the current episode in the credit crunch. This does not bode well at all across the board.

Portland has been fairly well isolated from the housing bubble.

Now what are seeing is a very fast crash of office/retail commercial construction and high-end condos under construction going to high-end apartments. Who will have the bucks to rent high-end space is beyond me.

Am I just strange?
Organic George

Nope - it is a once in a five generation thingy. It is the lunar eclipse of the USA.

Fun yes (Profitable, too)

The rally team today is hilarious. 10 minutes on, 10 minutes off. They don't have enough money to keep it up for 90min otherwise

My idea for a t-shirt

I bailed out the banks
and I got was
pwn3d!

This is anecdotal, but I ordered some monitors from CDW yesterday, UPS Ground. They got here this morning.

Uhm...at this time of year.

Nostrovia,

This could really exacerbate our predicaments.
RE

Oil refineries might get moth balled for a few months.

Re: Blackwater assisting law enforcement.

They were probably searching their own property. They have a large training bsae in the area which is just south of the Virginia border (think Dismal Swamp area near Norfolk/Virginia Beach).

Jim

I've had my car for 15 years/200k miles and I'm looking for deal of the century... She is starting to look bad.
Comrade Serf Mike

I've noticed that car quality tends to go up a lot during recessionary times and tends to be get crappy during inflationary times. I'd say now is a good time, but don't wait until the inflation takes hold later. Vinyl LP's in 1978-1979 were HORRIBLE. Off center hole punchings, skimpy on vinyl, warps, etc.

re squirrels,

I prefer guinea pigs. good for apartment dwellers. I'm also looking into pigeons.

looks like headed for down 800 points again.

negative 527 a counting.

Organic George writes:
"If he ends up in the Obama administration what happens to you then?"

Maybe move to Panama? Not sure yet.

I've had my car for 15 years/200k miles and I'm looking for deal of the century... She is starting to look bad.
Comrade Serf Mike

try repo.com

i'm as big a bear as anyone, but i must admit, the inability to hold any sort of rally is pretty scary.

Barley,
Oil refineries might get moth balled for a few months.

Have a look at energyecon's gasoline production chart:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_jbs0fnMs1sc/SObbi4Wz50I/AAAAAAAAACM/LZLErXoZyz0/s1600-h/gttpusm.gif

Roubini wasn't the only psychic. Check out this paper from 2004 http://www.cbpp.org/1-13-04confpaper.pdf Robert Rubin and Alan Sinai.

"Conventional analyses of sustained budget deficits demonstrate the negative effects of
deficits on long-term economic growth. Under the conventional view, ongoing budget deficits
decrease national saving, which reduces domestic investment and increases borrowing from
abroad.1 Interest rates play a key role in how the economy adjusts. The reduction in national
saving raises domestic interest rates, which dampens investment and attracts capital from
abroad.2 The external borrowing that helps to finance the budget deficit is reflected in a larger
current account deficit, creating a linkage between the budget deficit and the current account
deficit. The reduction in domestic investment (which lowers productivity growth) and the
increase in the current account deficit (which requires that more of the returns from the domestic
capital stock accrue to foreigners) both reduce future national income, with the loss in income
steadily growing over time. Under the conventional view, the costs imposed by sustained
deficits tend to build gradually over time, rather than occurring suddenly.
The adverse consequences of sustained large budget deficits may well be far larger and
occur more suddenly than traditional analysis suggests, however. Substantial deficits projected
far into the future can cause a fundamental shift in market expectations and a related loss of
confidence both at home and abroad. The unfavorable dynamic effects that could ensue are
largely if not entirely excluded from the conventional analysis of budget deficits. This omission
is understandable and appropriate in the context of deficits that are small and temporary; it is
increasingly untenable, however, in an environment with deficits that are large and permanent.
Substantial ongoing deficits may severely and adversely affect expectations and confidence,
which in turn can generate a self-reinforcing negative cycle among the underlying fiscal deficit,
financial markets, and the real economy..."

I thought maybe they were scared of the dark. No, they just don't want their face getting bitten off by a rat.
nova

There should not be a homeless problem in America. There are plenty of abandoned homes to go around. These people need to become bandos and not worry about the rats. They can watch cable instead.

Now, this is what all boils down to.

EU leaders endorse continent-wide emergency bailout, $2.3 trillion

Expired

Anyone? TIA
JBR

I just read last week that the hotel condo experiment turned out to be a catastrophe. Don't have the link. Only in my brain.

ac -- good comments throughout the thread.

Now, this great private sector stimulus (using private sector capital) is an example of good thinking in the Obama camp, and it only needs to be larger, porportional to the annual wages. I'd favor this tax break to hit 20% or better of annual wages if the recession is severe.
halbh

I would have to disagree unless you can show me that this spending is likely to generate some kind of net real return.

Again this is the problem of attempting to stimulate into excess.

Now if you were to say something like the money being spent in Iraq could be employed less wastefully in the domestic economy, then I could see some merit to the argument on a relative basis.

Generally speaking I think the private sector may be too big, and that throwing money at it is simply more malinvestment and waste.

If you can point to specific sectors (like energy) where this investment and spending may yield tangible returns then I'd be more willing to listen.

I think this idea of spending for the sake of growth is precisely what got us into this mess.

To me it's like trying to push and aircraft past it's redline speed - it's likely to break up completely. Going as fast as you can is secondary to structural integrity.

I believe the only useful spending is going to be aimed at developing economic structure that leads to sustainable growth, not merely growth.

Saying we need "stimulus" in the private sector does not address these issues unless you can show me that the private sector is too small compared to sustainable demand.

glad I didn't bet any money on an impending whoosh up. Jobless claims must be wonderful...

Ciao
MS

JBR;

They would have to be nuts to build condos now. Hotel rooms may be the only way out. They would almost certainly do better than condos at this point.

Don't worry, the Dow will be up 4000 pts tomorrow, and all will be well.

Yeah, but those are the newly devalued points.

"This is not going to be good for McCain tonight during the debates. Dow down over 500 just hands the debate to Obama."

McCain can hand the debate over to Obama without any help from the DOW

Guys, you missed this?

EU leaders endorse continent-wide emergency bailout

Expired

Any comment?

Kung Fu Panda,

If I had a commercial office building going in the ground right now I would be changing my undergarments. There are a couple in the CBD and 2 in the Pearl District and one on East Burnside that I suspect are going to just sit and gather moss for quite awhile or eventually go to the bank. I have a friend with a Commercial project that he is battling the bank to keep. Nice project. Not even very big. Just bad timing (or bad luck?).

I have been getting frantic calls from mostly small (but a few large scale) developers about their options to preserve their entitlements while pursuing a place holder to generate some kind of income. These folks are toast.

On a more personal level. We have seen our rental property in North Portland decline in value at shocking rate. What goes up must come down. But man, we did not even buy anywhere near the top of the market. Guess we should have taken the path of being slum lords rather than sinking 80K re-habing the place. Well at least is looks nice and the renter is taking care of it.

Interesting times.

Matt - Saw that. Dont know how some of the EU countries will afford the program. But it sure sounds good.

ow it finally looks like a real bear market

big up days, minimal follow through, and a preponderance of paper cuts that never seem to heal

Any comment?

At least it's not coming out of my pocket. No, wait... I'm sure it is somehow.

panick selling at the end here

Joe6PK does not have a portfolio!!!!

Joe has monthly payments. Thats it.

ova writes:
"Joe6PK does not have a portfolio!!!!"

OK, so what is the shorthand for James that does? J401K?

So when the Federal government spends $ on roads etc the companies that hire will receive the tax credits so they can improve profits. It does make sense but it’s still Federal dollars.

These profits simply come from another part of the economy. If one party sees their profits increase then somebody else sees their profits decrease in order to pay for these tax credits.

"Federal dollars" simply represent wealth taken from somebody else.

Moving profits around will not necessarily make the economy better. The only thing that will make the economy better is more productive use of resources.

There is no way to fake this with numbers and paper shuffling.

That condo hotel won't happen.

bob-

Jobless claims...

Ciao
MS

seb's portfolio??

Look for the house in Charlotte with a garage door decorated in certificates.

This charade is indeed ending.

$mn = $bn = $tn

It's all the same now. EU is bailing out @ $2.3 TRILLION.

This is wrong, there is no rationality behind it.

Look for the house in Charlotte with a garage door decorated in certificates.
black dog

And the sign that says will do tricks for soup.

Condo Hotel = Heartbreak Hotel

There is the survivalist rule of threes:

You can survive 3 minutes without air. 3 days without water. 3 weeks without food.

And the Administration would have you believe:

3 months without credit.

Can we just take it as read that we'll hear lots of "this is capitulation" tonight.....

yeah, yeah, yeah.

Heard it before (like, Friday). Someday, you'll be right. But just sit down and shut up already.

RE-

i don't think that was directed at us...I take it that he was speaking to the world in general.

but it doesn't bode well for either currencies...

Ciao
MS

is this what a verted hammer looks like?

MS,

i don't think that was directed at us...I take it that he was speaking to the world in general.

I agree completely. Yes, it wasn't directed at the U.S. However, any new Bretton Woods type agreement will by just about any definition curtail the role of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. I just cannot see it any other way.

damn where is AIG toes when we need him?

We still have a minute and a half, can we get 800?

3 days without clean underwear?

condos with a hotel won't happen either.

the market is saturated.

we had 2 of these on line in portland and our economy is not in the crapper like CA (not yet at least).

they are now slated for high-end apartments. even then this rolling dice.

section 8 / work force / market rate "affordable" is where the action is at. and you do it for the fees and tax credits at this point. in another economy you could count on flipping after 5-10 years and do okay. who knows if real estate will recover in 5-10 years. but urban land values are trending way down and the smart guys are predicting 50% down from the high.

Dow off 8.23% just before the bell. S&P off 9.3%.

Damn that was a short rally/bounce.

But tomorrow will be better right?

Speed writes:
But tomorrow will be better right?

Define better?

MS,
Agree.....but what will they use??
can't be euro's...

It will have to be a basket of some kind. I wouldn't be at all surprised if gold were part of it but I am an agnostic FREE gold bug...

one of my data monitoring points, a smart Manhattan amateur economist and RE person MortgageMan. the fear based initiative is having it's effect.

http://www.urbandigs.com/2008/10/mortgage_market_update_1015.html

Not only is every hard working American suffering from all the woes on Wall Street, but I am finally starting to feel the pain of people from overseas as well...

I received a frantic call from my cousin in Moscow this morning. Here is the latest scoop: A major bank in Russia has temporarily ceased all withdrawal requests. Not only that, but media all over Europe is blaming the U.S. for all of this...

Basket?? hard time seeing that...didn't work so well for the chinese but that all depends on what perspective you have...

Ciao
MS

8%? Yawn. All that value was imaginary anyway.

Hey, we're still up for the week!

I've seen some crazy things these last few months. Things I thought I'd never see in the USA. Wanna bet we're gonna see some really freakish financial moves soon? Almost outside of comprehension, real black box stuff.
(1) Blanket foreclosure moratoriums?
(2) Bank Holidays
(3) Gov't capitulation and open printing?
(4) abrupt gov't resignations in scale?
(5) Food riots?
(6) Sovereign default and collapse of global trade?
'Twil be innerestin'

means bigger audience for tonight and pressure to discuss real problems, the depression

We will have to tighten our belts and mail out more rebate checks. oxymoron?

When the tide goes out we will see that everyone is - Right Now! - naked under their clothes!

that would be me

x writes:
looks like headed for down 800 points again.

negative 527 a counting.
x | 10.15.08 - 3:36 pm | #

Middle East increasing gold reserves?

Mineweb - GOLD ANALYSIS - Gold demand soars. Price falls. What`s going wrong?

So funny you've got the SPY closing out trades (and is hitting LOD) but the Dow has not been adjusted.....

Those are not AH trades in that size....those are EOD sales.

Ciao
MS