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Nemo?
Huge double-bottom forming.
it's the bottom!
Good night, Irene... looks like Ebay is gonna miss 4Q revenue consensus by roughly 15%.
someone hold me, looks like I may have closed all my puts too early.
And here I was hoping for a post without the word "UGLY!" in it - well the word "UGLY" wasn't in it but those numbers for the markets = UGLY
I haven't decided if I prefer the "Dive, Dive, Dive" from some submarine movie, or the "Dive" command from the leader of the Hawk People in the Flash Gordon movie.
Decisions, decisions.
In percentage terms, today's drop is worse than last month's 777 drop which set this whole drop off.
of course, tomorrow, we might see a 1000 point gain - who knows, with these wild mood swings?
0 = bottom
Everything else is gravy.
Yay, Economy! Yay, Bankers!
In honor of eBay earnings:
YouTube - "Ebay" by Weird Al Yankovic
BUY THOSE FUCKING PEZ DISPENSERS FROM EBAY OR YOUR 401(K) IS COOKED
Love,
Wall Street
It's about time for someoone to post all the quotes from the past year telling us all that we were fools to think there would be a recession or the markets would go down. Someone had a nice compilation of them going at one point.
I've got my extended 1040 ready to mail. Do I still send to the Treasury or directly to Goldman?
Where would we be if no bailout was ever mentioned? I think they expected to reinflate the Dow to help McCain. Plan B will be an Osama bin Laden tape.
Nemo had an amazing submarine. Perhaps he could dive deep enough to find the bottom.
Look. We are range trading. I know, a range of ±400 points doesn't seem like a range but that's what I think. We'll bounce around for a week or two before the market decides to try to climb the wall of worry one more time or perform a spectacular capitulation jump then jump.
Holey Moley, I go off to do a little actual work and the dow goes from being minus 433 to minus well over 700!!
That'll teach me to not stay glued to CR.
Happy End of the World, Everybody.
wright model b sez u all wrong
buy the dip
So we may bounce from here, but i guess a bear is still a bear, wonder when and how low the ultimate low will be.
Relax; it's just a mental recession.
We can be SOOO thankful we have Hankie Paulson and Bennie BerBankie at the helm. Otherwise this could get downright ugly.
This sucker's goin down..
Cheney resting after successful heart procedure - MarketWatch
So we are back to where we started 3 days ago..
It's fascinating to watch everything fall at once. I'm accustomed to seeing oil rise when stocks fall, but there it is at less that $75 bbp. There is no safety left.
I guess this is how major double bottoms actually form... the second dip is heart-rendingly horrifying.
So it is possible that Sebastian will be vindicated by future generations reading these threads for thesis projects in 2045.
Are you sure that economics will still be a respectable subject in 2045?
karelian writes:
I guess this is how major double bottoms actually form... the second dip is heart-rendingly horrifying.
So it is possible that Sebastian will be vindicated by future generations reading these threads for thesis projects in 2045.
karelian | 10.15.08 - 4:37 pm | #
Is it too early to put in the Fed's Friday usual, pizza orders?
SEC Agrees to Accounting Shift Sought by U.S. Banks (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Is this Lehman really perpetual preferred?
Does it really matter now? I mean, think about it -Wachovia (was the 5th largest US commercial bank)is now a punchline in an SNL skit
Money Man writes:
Is it too early to put in the Fed's Friday usual, pizza orders?
Money Man | 10.15.08 - 4:39 pm | #
The decline is very orderly....no circuit breaker has been triggered. Maybe a bottom will be nearer when one of the breakers occurs.
Anybody want to guess what S&P earnings will be in '09 and what is an appropriate bear market multiple to put on those earnings.
Does $60 sound too negative and a 12 multiple.....or am I too optimistic.
--
Something that CR will NEVER quote and would never be able to match
Forecasting the TEOTWAWKI
TEOTWAWKI The end of the world as we have known it. There was a forum thread on the topic and here is my forecast:
Error Occurred While Processing Request
TEOTWAWKI began in 2007 and has already been confirmed in 2008. I do get the timing right every now and then and in other negative forecasts I am usually early and NEVER late. Jas
I guess major S&P bottoms form around P/E of 7....
"Look. We are range trading."
Range trading??? This market has gone to join the choir immortal.
--
Forecast got eaten...
Oct 8, 2006 3:09 PM
Jas_Jain - Who Are Least Prepared for TEOTWAWKI?
Jesus Camp maybe better prepared for an armed conflict, but who are least prepared, financially, before things that that ugly?
Sam Lovers, especially, those with significant Mortgage Debt.
Another year of Housing Bubble burst, with prices down 20-50% in various areas, and 2007 would see the beginning of the TEOTWAWKI.
Those who are waiting for 2008-09 are going to be fooled. Better to prepare early than late.
Jas
sextillion...........
Just keep going and it sounds fantastic.
TEOTWAWKI=buying opportunity
come on you suckers, buy something
please?
Jaswant,
Rosebud.
The market is so effiminate.
People and the market are simply discounting an Obama administration of socialism and higher taxes. If Obama is elected the next investment opportunity will be in the runup to the 2012 election or in precious metals for the interim.
The sheeple have not to date really panicked - when the 401kERS take there money all out of mutual funds and into MM or Stable Values then we will have a bottom- short term db .. maybe , but the trend is down my friends , no reversal in sight - market looks out 7 months as sees hell .
Bill
I am on my mobile broadband card traveling in the Mojave desert and I tried to check the TED spread and Bloomberg is saying it is a premium service option only so I can not access it, unless I pay.
Hi Jas,
I have to agree with you on the concept, but not the direction of TEOTWAWKI. What we are seeing is an evolutionary event in the history of human civilization- in much the same way that WW1, GD1, WW2, Cold War etc were. While much smaller similar events have occurred throughout history- the sheer scale/ magnitude of the events led to rather different and lasting changes.
Think about it WW1- beginning of the end of western colonialism.
GD1- The role of the government changed forever.
WW2- The technology/ infrastructure/ social changes that came out of it.
Cold War- Technology that we take for granted was inconceivable before everyone and their dog invested in it.
Jas,
Stuff sucks and this deflation pig is just starting to fly, but TEOTWAWKI?
Were not living in caves any time soon.
The Grateful Dead said it best: I will get by.
I dislike Presidential debates as much as the next man but I think the stock market has really over reacted.
Hey, quit picking on Jas.
He has shaped up nicely and is communicating as politely as his style allows.
Anybody who touches this market with a ten foot pole within the next 20 months is an effing idiot.
I suppose McCain asshattery would be kewl?--
All the money that went up in smoke today wasn't real anyway... if you bought in around 1990.
Plan B is war with Iran.
Eh satan, so is this good or bad.
Morgan Stanley is quoting me $920 for 1 Oz American Eagles, with $5K minimum and $75 Delivery charge.
Sounds like quite a markup, but I am guaranteed to get coins within 2 weeks.
GOOG is going to $100...ad spending will be down sharply.
Anybody who touches this market with a ten foot pole within the next 20 months is an effing idiot.
Scooby
that's me...
down 50g's today...CLF
--
"Were not living in caves any time soon."
Anonymous,
Were we living in the caves until 2007? "As we have known it," sir!
Jas
Your all a bunch of whiners!
No worries, Ben will cut the fed rate to zero and everything will be just lovely again. jep jep
You're all a bunch of whiners.
Well, I guess that Pope Paulson's plan to return to the status quo is a no go....again. So when are they going to dump Mcfailures Paulson & Bernanke?
Fed considering more rate cuts (WSJ)
Yeh, that'll help. Friggin idiots.
Morgan Stanley is quoting me $920 for 1 Oz American Eagles, with $5K minimum and $75 Delivery charge.
did you call CNI buy or sell gold and silver bullion, gold or silver coins or bars and PCGS Certified Coins at www.golddealer.com | America's Coin Dealer
Fed considering more rate cuts (WSJ)
Until they pay ME to borrow money, I won't touch their crap.
Japan REdux:
"SEC Clears U.S. Banks to Postpone Writedowns on Value of Some Securities " (bloomberg.com)
did you call CNI buy or sell gold and silver bullion, gold or silver coins or bars and PCGS Certified Coins at www.golddealer.com | America's Coin Dealer
Citizen Scotto
No, but I'll look them up. Thanks for the tip.
My only concern is with delivery. I usually deal with Bullion Direct, but they are showing Delayed.
"He has shaped up nicely and is communicating as politely as his style allows.
Lawyerliz"
I gonna change my style now. "You stupid mother fuckers are idiots." Now I'm going to communicate as politely as my style allows: "You stupid mother fuckers are ignorant."
Do you like my new polite style? I have shaped up nicely, haven't I?
I guess I'm a sheeple. I took my money out when the Dow was at about 12,800. Money markets aren't sexy, but mine haven't been heading south faster than a frat boy on spring break. I may miss an uptick if I get back in too late, but hell, as the coward sheep that I am, I'll take that risk.
FED: nothing like pushing on a string while diving off a cliff
"TED spread ... Bloomberg is saying it is a premium service"
Both
US0003M:IND (libor)
and
LIBMM03M:IND (LIMEAN)
are still free. Swap rates are not, though (haven't been).
We are witnessing the end of an epoch--The US only lasted about 70 years as numero uno--when the dust settles, I see Germany as the new top dog. China has too many people still living in feudal conditions, Russia is a one horse pony, Japan is still sleepwalking, and Korea/Taiwan are both too small and too fragile.
A couple of hundred years from now, American students will scratch their heads when learning the outcome of WWII. Shit--I remember when we were invincible--my kids were spoiled--my grandkids will be poorer than were my parents. Shit.
Scotto,
Gold dealer.com shows them at $925. Probably not as high a minimum though, and no delivery charge if over $2K.
--
Lawyerliz,
Thanks. I am just different. That is all and there is no reason for anyone to be upset or be concerned. It may not appear, but I do appreciate CR and many posters. I wouldn't be here, otherwise.
Tolerance, people, tolerance of differences. We are all here to figure out things about the economy and the markets.
Jas
People and the market are simply discounting an Obama administration of socialism and higher taxes.
You prefer an even more extreme form of the currently practiced fascism? It looks like it.
crispy&cole writes:
"GOOG is going to $100...ad spending will be down sharply."
If it does, I'll be buying with both hands. They really don't have much competition. And if the rumor that MS is sniffing at Yahoo again is true, they will have even less competition.
Their stock may be overpriced currently, but their business is in good shape.
Mel, YouTube -
I am sorry LawyerLiz but I have this movie running in my head.
The year 2010
Scene: The Jas hood
The neighbors watch as yet another empty house burns to the ground. Once again the fire dept. did not respond. On strike about their pensions. Something about them no longer existing.
The crowd was silent. The Jas appears. He is dressed in a flannel bathrobe and black gold toe socks with holes in each heel. Once again he begins haranguing them. "I told you but nooooooo, none of you wanted to listen! Why back in 05"
Nothing was heard further as all the surounding neighbors picked him up and heaved him into the fire.
Interesting Times writes:
Fed considering more rate cuts (WSJ)
Until they pay ME to borrow money, I won't touch their crap.
That may be the plan.
sm_landlord - did you see the story in Bloomberg about advertisers bailing out of Nascar...ad spending is going to decline more than many people think.
Hey CR, did you know you are number 1? Congrats!
The Mess That Greenspan Made: Realigning the econo-blogosphere
It's a good thing I still have my collection of mint Beanie Babies. They should be worth a fortune now.
"I don't just think we're going to test the lows. I think we're going to violate them and break lower in a big way," said Kent Engelke, managing director at the brokerage Capitol Securities Management, in Richmond, Va.
Dow Declines 733; S&P Tumbles 9% - WSJ.com
Best quote of the day !
The decline is very orderly....no circuit breaker has been triggered.
Dude - the circuit breakers that kept getting triggered during the '00-'02 uncontrolled descent ceased to exist years ago.
"SEC Clears U.S. Banks to Postpone Writedowns on Value of Some Securities "
Heck, why not just allow the banks to write up the values of any and all securities as they see fit. I heard a couple of guys from Lehman are starting a fund that will write CDSs on anything you need.
SHLD - sears holding, one of Cramers favorites is down to 60...wow, I guess Ed LAmpert is no Warren BUffet after all
Trading Range ???????????
Try looking at a weekly chart of the SP500.
futuresource.com |
Futures & Commodities Charts - Real-Time Charts, Free Charts
If GM and Chrysler go away - so goes there ads. If the economy gets bad enough even the army won't have to run their stupid commercials.
Bend, Oregon was in the top 3 housing bubble percentage increase. Here's a quote from a blogger that owns a book store there. Seems appropriate today.
"I've always said that's Bends genius; we welcome your money, we smile tolerantly at your high falutin talk, watch as you come down to earth, spank you gently on the bottom, and say, "Welcome to poverty with a view."
We all get poverty with cable and internet.
best minimum wage job a middle aged guy ever had
sebastian writes:
FED: nothing like pushing on a string while diving off a cliff
Is this actually Sebastian, or is there a fake Sebastian?
lower case sebastia
Found interesting link at NakedCap:
Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit
by
George A. Akerlof
University of California, Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Paul M. Romer
Stanford Graduate School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Abstract:
During the 1980s, a number of unusual financial crises occurred. In Chile, for example, the financial sector collapsed, leaving the government with responsibility for extensive foreign debts. In the United States, large numbers of government-insured savings and loans became insolvent - and the government picked up the tab. In Dallas, Texas, real estate prices and construction continued to boom even after vacancies had skyrocketed, and the suffered a dramatic collapse. Also in the United States, the junk bond market, which fueled the takeover wave, had a similar boom and bust.
In this paper, we use simple theory and direct evidence to highlight a common thread that runs through these four episodes. The theory suggests that this common thread may be relevant to other cases in which countries took on excessive foreign debt, governments had to bail out insolvent financial institutions, real estate prices increased dramatically and then fell, or new financial markets experienced a boom and bust. We describe the evidence, however, only for the cases of financial crisis in Chile, the thrift crisis in the United States, Dallas real estate and thrifts, and junk bonds.
Our theoretical analysis shows that an economic underground can come to life if firms have an incentive to go broke for profit at society's expense (to loot) instead of to go for broke (to gamble on success). Bankruptcy for profit will occur if poor accounting, lax regulation, or low penalties for abuse give owners an incentive to pay themselves more than their firms are worth and then default on their debt obligations.
Sounds like a very apt description of what has been taking place. I see this as falling into the category of a problem in what economists call "agency theory". The interests of mgmt are not aligned with those of shareholders/bondholders. IMO, investment banks should never have been public companies.
Dummy writes:
Trading Range ???????????
Try looking at a weekly chart of the SP500.
You mean between 0 and 1500 isn't a range?
....discounting an Obama administration of socialism...
The dude is going to inherit NATIONALIZED BANKS. The current administration is leaving him nothing of value left to socialize.
re: Google/advertising
I'm preparing to focus on Gilded Age II companies. I just don't see where google can/might buy growth. In the mean time they are still running the business like a startup in the boom years.
No need to buy them now, even if advertising spending somehow held flat in the first real recession in decades
Double bottom?
One of those happened around Sept. 17, too. Charts are quaint: DOW y-axis stops at 10,800.
When in the dive do we do the entry-position? How far is the water from us falling bodies?
What if we belly-flop?
Crispy,
I do not disagree that ad spending will fall. I'm just saying that GOOG would be cheap at $100. They spend a fortune on non-core R&D, which they could easily scale back if profits were in question.
Todays market action couldn't have come at a better time for McCain. I believe he has Obama right where he wants him.
Sorry, I just couldn't help it.
SHLD - sears holding, one of Cramers favorites is down to 60...wow, I guess Ed LAmpert is no Warren BUffet after all
Sears will not survive another year. You can take that to the bank.
SHLD - sears holding, one of Cramers favorites is down to 60...wow, I guess Ed LAmpert is no Warren BUffet after all
Lampert thought the Sears deal was BOTH a retail AND real estate play. Wrong on both counts.
I found the bottom!
check these pics (and my apologies if already posted)
http://pics.mrlandlord.com/Sean(CA)/index.mgi2?name=wamu1
http://pics.mrlandlord.com/Sean(CA)/index.mgi2?name=Wamu2
http://pics.mrlandlord.com/Sean(CA)/index.mgi2?name=Wamu3
they are priceless, really
Max - you think Sears is the next Mervyn's?
Lampert thought the Sears deal was BOTH a retail AND real estate play. Wrong on both counts.
I thought he took the Sears money to run a hedge fund.
Unemployment heading north of 8% ?
IMF research economist Prakash Loungani reports that unemployment in a housing bust recession increases roughly 4% versus 2% in non-housing bust recessions above the baseline. Based on that, it looks like an unemployment rate above 8% is entirely possible.
404 Not Found
Que Sera
hehe
Well, exactly which economic model are we using and what is the forecast?
S&P Reviews $280.1 Billion of Alt-A Mortgage Debt
S&P Reviews $280.1 Billion of Alt-A Mortgage Debt (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Standard & Poor's said it may downgrade $280.1 billion of Alt-A mortgage securities, the most that the ratings company has identified in a single announcement for bonds backed by the loans.
I'm sure we'd reach the bottom if we'd stop digging.
MPinCO writes:
People and the market are simply discounting an Obama administration of socialism and higher taxes.
You've been listening to too much Limbaugh, friend. This is not just a Republican or Democratic problem. This is a problem with our system, our institutions and our collective and misplaced values. There is and will be no easy or quick fix.
where do we q up for our next rebate hit? I'm thinking a pair of those 70s nikes
Sears owns K-MART too. Seriously. How can Sears compete with WalMart, Costco, BJs, etc.?
Mr. Cloudy Day writes:
The decline is very orderly....no circuit breaker has been triggered.
Dude - the circuit breakers that kept getting triggered during the '00-'02 uncontrolled descent ceased to exist years ago."
Nonetheless the action is pretty (or ugly for the long side but) orderly, and rather easy to predict on a short term basis
Dave,
Why not 10% U3? We should be able to align layoffs that it goes that high before discouraged/early retiree workers disappear from the job market.
But, if Sears the Retailer is ailing, Sears the Hedge Fund has never been healthier. Hedge funds are massive unregulated investment pools typically open to only institutional investors and wealthy individuals. The company's stock soared 45 percent in 2006, driven by high-risk trades that produced $101 million, or a third, of Sears Holding's pretax income in the third quarter. These investments did not perform well in the fourth quarter, and the firm had to sell off properties to cover its losses, according to a Morgan Stanley report.
Wapo 2007
Risky Side of Sears: Retailer Is Recast As a Hedge Fund - washingtonpost.com
Max,
"Sears will not survive another year. You can take that to the bank."
I thought Paulson had already done this.
Nostrovia,
Max - you think Sears is the next Mervyn's?
If you don't believe me, visit a Kmart or an OSH. Most of the time there's more staff than customers. Sears is the same way.
My bet is they make it through xmas, but suppliers start cutting them off by Easter. If they make it past the Superbowl they'll be lucky.
but anonymouse promised us a big rally - he says it is easy to predict too!
confused again:
Wright model B
no question
what looks like an empty glass is
merely a glass with the potential of being filled
"Well, I guess that Pope Paulson's plan to return to the status quo is a no go....again."
I think the Paulson plan is working just like Paulson and his banking buddies wants it to.
Concerned Observer
Amen to that.
Gareth G writes:
Todays market action couldn't have come at a better time for McCain. I believe he has Obama right where he wants him.
LOL
On CNBC's Fast Money, they are "fearful of a global recession!"
Who the f*ck are these people?
Tonight, I'm a winer.
J. Rochioli pinot noir 2002. Thanks, Wall Street. ;o)
Sears will not survive another year. You can take that to the bank.
I think that expression can just hang up its jock now.
All traders please be advised we could have a big event on Oct. 21st.
Will Lehman bankruptcy drop a $400 billion shoe on October 21st? - BloggingStocks
Ratigan and Co. railing against crooks on Wall Street. And one wants to put Rudy 9ui11iani in charge. Too funny.
Mel, the "outcome" of WWII will never change. Nazi Germany was defeated. A new country has risen from the ashes. Good for them.
With these moves being so predictable I have to start to wonder if instead of lending the newly printed money these banks are just taking it and shorting each other and the rest of the market.
Re: Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit
Strategic bankruptcy has been common for decades. Check out the case of Starmet in Concord, MA for a good example (they made depleted uranium slugs).
You see the same thing all over the place today in foreclosures. Here's one: Shell Game: Seven Neighbors, 11 Foreclosures, and More Than a Million Dollars' Profit in One Baltimore Neighborhood | Baltimore City Paper
Maybe Springsteen will come out with a new album about the problems of todays "Working class" and no one will buy it.
Kilgore: Smell that? You smell that?
Lance: What?
Kilgore: Scorched Hedge Fund, son. Nothing in the world smells like that.
[kneels]
Kilgore: I love the smell of Scorched Hedge Fund in the evening. You know, one time we had an IBank down, for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn't find one of 'em, not one stinkin' Ibanker's body. The smell, you know that mammon smell, the whole hill. Smelled like... victory. Someday this war's gonna end...
[Kilgore unhappily walks off]
MPinCP writes ....discounting an Obama administration of socialism...
Mr. Cloudy Day writes: .... The dude is going to inherit NATIONALIZED BANKS. The current administration is leaving him nothing of value left to socialize.
Ah, not so my friend. There is still healthcare and energy sectors!
Shitless dude...
Ever buy here?
Londoncoin.com
They're next to John Wayne Airport. I haven't bought from them since the delays started, but they were cash and carry before that.
correction:
s&p500 down 9,0%
nasdaq down 8,5%
O Voter writes:
Mel, the "outcome" of WWII will never change. Nazi Germany was defeated. A new country has risen from the ashes. Good for them.
O Voter | 10.15.08 - 5:11 pm | #
The future will be clouded by revisionist history--just like Pilgrim slaughter of Natives is reason to feast.
Instead of Fridays being 'bank failure' day, it's now 'nation failure' day. TGIF-TSHF
"Todays market action couldn't have come at a better time for McCain. I believe he has Obama right where he wants him."
Wile E. Coyote always had the RR right where he wanted him too. It will prolly work out that well.
Nostrovia,
Not that it matters anymore in this age of new lawlessness by the Treasury and Fed daily, but:
S&P Reviews $280.1 Billion of Alt-A Mortgage Debt (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
I thought that downgrades or threat of downgrades were verbotten per The Bailout Bill?
So we are back to where we started 3 days ago...
Not quite.
Now we're down about $700 billion.
Shitless: Also, Bob Patchin's Coin Gallery in Orange was delivering Krugerrands in 2 days as of last week. Silver too. 346 S. Tustin St.
Down more tomorrow?
I guess down 300 would almost be up!
"Morgan Stanley is quoting me $920 for 1 Oz American Eagles, with $5K minimum and $75 Delivery charge.
Sounds like quite a markup, but I am guaranteed to get coins within 2 weeks."
I was over at golddealer, where I bought my eagles back when I was buying eagles, and that's about what they quoted.
Gold eagles and half-eagles are still in stock, but they're out of the smaller denominations. Those are more popular with people in survivalist mode, which tells you where the heads of many Americans are right now.
Trashcan Lives by Charles Bukowski
the wind blows hard tonight
and it's a cold wind
and I think about
the boys on the row.
I hope some of them have a bottle of
red.
it's when you're on the row
that you notice that
everything
is owned
and that there are locks on
everything.
this is the way a democracy
works:
you get what you can,
try to keep that
and add to it
if possible.
this is the way a dictatorship
works too
only they either enslave or
destroy their
derelicts.
we just forgot ours.
in either case
it's a hard
cold
wind.
The ML Implode-o-Meter is starting to remind me of a McDonald's sign from the 70's. Maybe they should just jump to "Over 2 Trillion served (imploded)."
"The recession is deepening (and was deepening before the most recent wave of the credit crisis). And there is no significant sign of improvement in the credit markets. All the economic news will be bad for some time ... and after the September retail report this morning, I expect Q3 PCE (to be released Oct 30th) to be strongly negative - and GDP to decline too.
"
All of which was knowable if one just selected a few key blogs and/orweb sites to read daily....like CR!!
CSC,
My dealer isn't even taking silver orders right now.
Colorado Gold -- Precious Metals Broker
Nostrovia,
Heard on the radio coming home from work today: an ad promoting Kmart Layaway. Layaway is back, baby!
As expected, the run-up on Monday has fizzled. The worst thing is that I didn't buy MS when is was below 8. I knew that the Feds wouldn't let it go BK.
look this isn't a recession
it may be a depression
but I always said we weren't in a recessio
FDIC Friday?
The 19th largest bank, SOV went poof yesterday and hardly a peep from anyone.
As long as the banks get swallowed whole, I don't think we need a Frday.
.
All of which was knowable if one just selected a few key blogs and/orweb sites to read daily....like CR!!
Looking back, I wish i had thought of ways to benefit from the slowdown. My only interest until last week was preserving capital.
Anyone think Greenspan will get his PIMCO contract will be renewed after 2 years? Seems his brand might now be more repellant than attractive for people desiring safe fixed income investments...
The dreaded parabola snake that I spotted last week still has a grip on this market and looks to be dragging it towards a bear market lower low near 7200. Not good before the election.
CR's research convinced me 6 months ago that the DJI was several thousand points overvalued, and I envisioned 80B trigger trading halts.
CR's recent credit work tells me things are now worse. Wonder if the bullying incumbent leaders see the opportunity to preempt the financial reform proposals of the opponent by declaring an appropriate emergency, closing the markets and putting the problem in the hands of their more experienced candidate. Just an idea.
"With these moves being so predictable I have to start to wonder if instead of lending the newly printed money these banks are just taking it and shorting each other and the rest of the market."
That be the plan, Momo's jump in and short the market and help, the lower it goes the more CONgress panics and the more money they cough up, banks wipe out hedgies with margin call, cut off companies ablity to raise capital by issuing stock, tighten lending, wipe out little guys and force them into treasuries, buy it up on the cheap at the end, It's all great fun.
Looking forward to seeing CR's daily numbers during the depression. On my new Doomberg terminal
The future will be clouded by revisionist history--just like Pilgrim slaughter of Natives is reason to feast.
Mel | 10.15.08 - 5:15 pm
Hey...that was a great day in my family's history! We kicked their asses and ate all their food. Oh those are great Thanksgiving stories at my house.
hey fake seb,beat it.
your confusing the newbies.
for the record, seb flipped and went double short (SH)
anonymous
hey, don't let the rubes in on the pla
YouTube -
"I have to start to wonder if instead of lending the newly printed money these banks are just taking it and shorting each other and the rest of the market."
Peeps are collecting cash to pay out $400 large (billion is the new large) next week.
Nostrovia,
"No Cal SC writes:
Heard on the radio coming home from work today: an ad promoting Kmart Layaway. Layaway is back, baby!"
Should never have gone away. Deferred purchase instead of deferred payment. And you knew the thing you wanted was waiting for you, with your name on it.
The fundraisers I work with are trying a form of layaway charity now: can't contribute this month? Why not make a commitment now but defer payment until after the holidays?
Sweeeet. Freaks in the house!
So what happens when the Fed cuts rates half a point and doesn't even get a one day equity or credit market bounce?
re: Green businesses. Does anyone know publicly traded companies or funds to invest in?
just some nostalgic posts from a simpler time for the cognoscente
Groundhogday,
"So what happens when the Fed cuts rates half a point and doesn't even get a one day equity or credit market bounce?"
Didn't that already happen last cut?
Can't remember, put it fizzled fast.
Nostrovia,
--
Nastiness of some of the people in these forums/blogs tells you the intolerance with which Americans are BRED towards anyone who is "the others."
I am not harming anyone here, but people are nasty because they have been bred to be intolerant. In a country that prides itself in Freedom of Speech? Genuine pride in principles is something that is taken away when an American is BRED to be a dope. The dope demands conformity.
Jas
Maybe Springsteen will come out with a new album about the problems of todays "Working class" and no one will buy it.
Springsteen had a concert in my parent's home town over the summer. Scalpers hoarded the tickets, wanting close to $250. By the time the show arrived, they were selling for about 25% of face.
Put $200 price tags for concerts on the list of Gilded Age II artifacts...
Do ya' know what comes next in the Paulson/Bernanke plan? Go back to the Nixon years.....the Bush/Nixon gang will launch an attack on the workers called the WAGE FREEZE and down the road Wage/Price Control.
Our two most cherished values are obedience and conformity. We live it every moment and rarely say it out loud.
Jas,
Dude, just blow passed them. That's what I do with the partisan posts.
Works well.
Nostrovia,
The future will be clouded by revisionist history--just like Pilgrim slaughter of Natives is reason to feast.
Mel | 10.15.08 - 5:15 pm
We were the vanguard of America and accomplished feats that few in history can match. All civilizations exist on the ruins of others. There is much to celebrate for the courage, principles and legacy of the Pilgrims, who surely would be horrified by the civilization that exists today.
Chill, Jas. We dopes like you. Really.
rps: Seems to me that there isn't enough time to implement something like that when a Democratic president is likely to be rolling into town within 4 months
Does anyone know why there are huge swings occurring the in the markets as opposed to gradual slides.
New Post
I see there to be a lot of belching, Greek sign wearing drifters floating about like turds today.
Here, let me help you get where you going:
Sarah Palin as
President-> PalinAsPresident.com
CSC,
"Our two most cherished values are obedience and conformity."
And near blind devotion to our political party.
Three, our three most cherished values are obedience, conformity, mindless devotion to our political party, and American Idol.
Wait, let me start over. Amonst our most cherished values...
Nostrovia,
I am not harming anyone here, but people are nasty because they have been bred to be intolerant.
Try saying what you say except substitute Jews or blacks or Hispanics or Asians and get back to us. Americans have had the luxury of being open minded for near a century now but don't mistake our tolerance for your tolerability.
JJ--i think you put too much blame on the government for American stupidity--religious leaders and media deserve some of your scorn. Actually, I do believe there is an unholy alliance to keep kids down and dumb. To avoid Vietnam I became a NYC teacher. Boy did they mess up the curriculum--sabotage really.
"I am not harming anyone here, but people are nasty because they have been bred to be intolerant. In a country that prides itself in Freedom of Speech? Genuine pride in principles is something that is taken away when an American is BRED to be a dope. The dope demands conformity."
Jas, sorry intolerance is not a born and bred American attribute. Americans have perfected the the ideal of thinking they're not intolerance, not being intolerant.
I'm white, my wife is Chinese and many of my friends are Indian. Americans are just more forthcoming about their intolerance.
Jas Jain = Douchebag
Comrade Misean: ...and killin shit. 'mericans luuuuv to kill shit. Little critters, brown people, and other economies. So killin shit's gotta be on there.
Leave Jas alone. Every blog needs a pet troll.
Unfortunately I'm afraid the low of 768.00 of the last bear won't hold either. I was playing around with my charts and it looks like we could go as low as 607.00!!
my chart goes to zero
Jas your cool, right.
Want dope, come to me.
As a recovering American dope, I forgot how sensitive dopes can be.
To bad you can't pedal away obesity on a perpetual menstrual cycle.
dude on cnbc just let God D*** fly...
during a stupid analogy
roflmao
was rad
LOL.
sterlingerl writes:
Hey CR, did you know you are number 1? Congrats!
USA Today. No way.
My take-
1] The end of western europe as a region of any significance- bad demographics, decreased consumption, innovation hindering environment, still living in the past, stratified society, poor integration of immigrants.
2] The beginning of the end of Australia, NZ and Canada as white dominated societies. While these countries might survive in their present form, they will have to change a lot.They will have to diversify beyond their current economic base, allow innovation and foster integration- otherwise they are screwed. Then again they do have a lot of idiots who live in the 1900s.
3] The US will probably do better than any western country for one reason- willingness to change. The one trend that has always manifested throughout US history has been a willingness to give up old ideas that are no longer workable. Often this requires a bad event to manifest itself (Civil War, WW1, DG1, WW2, Civil Rights Movement) but things do change for the better. Well most of the time.. at least.
One example- for all the history of poor treatment of non-white people, we today have many rich people, CEOs, well compensated innovators and yes.. kashkari- who are non-white. Compare that to any other country.
4] China is the big unknown. It could either realize the fallacy of neo-mercantilism and encourage it's own citizens to consume. It could also slip back into it's nationalistic shell- and get civil unrest/ posturing/ revolutions etc. Who knows??
5] Other Asian countries (excluding japan)- They have got their s**t together. Should do OK in the medium term. Long term, who knows?? - No one can consistently predict the future beyond 10-15 years.
6] Japan- If they do not become less xenophobic, they are f**ked. Their demographic profile is atrocious. If they get over their xenophobia, they could make it through this storm and end up better than they are now.
7] India- Lots of potential, but the society is too feminised and respectful of old idiots. Once they get over that and realize that they are in it together- they have a bright future. They could also destroy themselves through excessive infighting and mercantile attitudes.
8] Africa- If they get their s**t together and rearrange their boundaries in the way they see fit, things could improve. Peace+ need for more consumers might make it a very good place for growth. Who knows??
9] Middle East- Bright future if they become much less religious. Otherwise they are gonna get nuked one of these days. I feel the latter option is more likely.
I cannot believe I just posted that from my iphone...
In 20 years this stuff is going to be just as much of a punchline as the old Soviet economic planners are now:
"Dude, let's totally just let the greediest dudes on the planet go completely apesh*t with our collective capital without oversight or regulation! This will clearly work out well for everyone! How could it _not_ result in long-term gain for everybody involved forever! It'll be so totally fly!"
"But...aren't regulations in place because that doesn't work, homeboy?"
"Dude, that is so 1930s. Talk to the hand!"
satan,
Allow me the liberty to say that I think we all are impressed that you are smart enough to even type
Just wondering if Paulson and Bernanke bought land in Paraquay adjacent to the Bushies?
Hi EvilHenryPaulson,
I am impressed that a canuck like you has not committed suicide yet. I mean.. the future for your "kind" looks rather bad. You are not going to grow old in a society like the one you live in (by a long shot). All of your cherished dreams of canuck whites-better-than-others are going to die in front of your eyes. Either that, or you will become too poor to care otherwise (protectionism = ruin).
I think Paulson's future living arrangements when he finishes his current assignment of market deconstruction will be home sweet home China. He's been to China over 70 times.
I smell a rat with friends in high places...
IHT 4-4-08
Paulson dashed about Beijing, displaying the extraordinary access he enjoys by meeting top leaders including President Hu Jintao, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, Deputy Prime Minister Wang Qishan, who will head the dialogue on the Chinese side, Finance Minister Xie Xuren and Commerce Minister Chen Deming.
Lawyerliz writes:
Down more tomorrow?
I guess down 300 would almost be up!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
(Dow's) been down so GD Damn long, that it looks like up to me.
Jim Morriso
Off 10% every day? The good news is you lose less every day and you'll never run out.
"Hey CR, did you know you are number 1? Congrats!"
And cited by a Nobel prize winner (literally, Econ isn't a Nobel prize, but that's nit-picking) as his favorite.
To my mind, while taking nothing away from the site's posted content, it is the breadth and depth of the forums that makes this the best, as well as the widest read econ blog.
Where else can you find sub-threads about market technical analysis, macroeconomic theory, the condition of the social contract, legal briefs, American (in)tolerance, and politically-motivated intolerant misinformation, all coexisting in one stream of discussion?
The thicker the primal soup of thought, fact, and opinion, the greater the insights one can take away.
Milton Friedmaniac writes:
Chill, Jas. We dopes like you. Really.
Really.
American just like to bust balls as a way of showing comraderie.
What about buying junk silver coinage? The silver value is there, the denominations are low, and everyone can recognize it for what it is.
I recently bought a bag at CC Silver in Phoenix for $9,000.
satan: an interesting, provocative analysis, would add that I think that South America is going to do well, because they are attempting to move beyond the US finance capital model and engage in regional integration, reducing their dependency on US consumers and investment
leaders like Chavez and Morales may not be popular in the US, but hostility to them obscures that is happening more broadly throughout the continent with Brazil trying to succeed in its high wire act of engaging in such integration while retaining access to global markets
The beginning of the end of Australia, NZ and Canada as white dominated societies. While these countries might survive in their present form, they will have to change a lot.They will have to diversify beyond their current economic base, allow innovation and foster integration- otherwise they are screwed. Then again they do have a lot of idiots who live in the 1900s
yep...
Too many people reliant on state hand outs vs workers (1mil workers vs 3 mil sucking state teat)...
aaarrrgghh, satan has an iphone and I agree, man shit is getting odd!
What is a gently used mid 30's kidney going for now-a-daze? Gotta' pay the rent.
Ahhh, Springsteen songs....think back to Darkness on the Edge of Town...songs about Factory Whistle Blows, how the factory steals Dad's soul, etc. Christ, wouldn't we like to have some of those jobs back!
Mind you, that was back before things really went tits up... haven't called recently. They do accept cash though...
Matt...If I could only afford to pay some honey to strap her hands across my engines....baby we were born to run.
Bummer about those NASCAR sponsorships. All those rednecks are going to start driving Hyundais now.
satan, what is wrong with a declining population? More loot for the progeny.
in fact us Californians look forward to that day.
Yes, but people don't die in their 60s nowadays, especially in countries like japan. Who will support them? Pensions? Health care?
w writes:
satan, what is wrong with a declining population? More loot for the progeny.
I expect Q3 PCE (to be released Oct 30th) to be strongly negative - and GDP to decline too.
I agree but an interesting note is that average spending per credit card should come in between flat to 2%+, but you don't buy cars with a credit card and there is also likely to be a natural migration in overall spend to credit cards as people try to get by.
If I can figure out how to freeze the kidney for later use I'm a buyer at 5k . I can pay in cash , free rent , gold , rice or ammo.
Satan
Good overview. As someone who's family has been in the business of Canadian immigration for 15 years, we realized long ago that it has good longteem prospects. Plus having a strong presence in Pakistan, we have benefited fromour brilliant policies. Client retention in the last month has been up 1000%. Now if we can only get clients to pay in precious metals.
Rockin', Jersey girl, rockin....tis be da truth.
As another poster pointed out in a previous thread - if you look at the elliott wave theory, friday's low was only wave 3 of 5 - can we call monday's rise 4 of 5? If it was then we may be seeing the start of wave 5 of 5 meaning the bottom may only be a short drop from here! (or a long drop)
If Obama wins the election, as he will, I think he needs to demand the right to take charge and determine government policy before the inauguration. There isn't time to wait and put with this bunch of dithering ninnies any longer.
Another shoe to drop before long. China has said that since the US recession and the European one too will impact its exports, it is changing its policies to expand the domestic market. If China doesn't need to export so much, less demand for US Treasuries, higher US long term rates. Meaning the US standard of living will drop drastically.
Satan...
Your views are interesting to say the least - however, I think your analysis of Australia, NZ and Canada - may be a bit off. Theses are resource rich countries with little population and bound to do well when ecomonic times are good.
ps. your comments about "white dominence" are a little xenophobic as well.
alybaba:
"Canadian immigration policy" is about as liberal as it gets. You'd better get some floor mats and a Koran, because Canada is headed towards Canadistan, faster than the DOW is headed towards zero. Look at the number of patents ever issued to Muslim countries, and then you will see why conversion to Islam is not so "progressive". The Koran is pure evil, so I guess that's why Satan, atheists, and liberals approve of Islam over Christianity. Too bad all that's in it for gays is capital punishment, but that's just a minor detail along the way to destroying Christianity and Judaism. The ends justify the means I guess, even if it means assured destruction of your "civil rights" in the end. I have a habit of digressing...haha.
China has said that since the US recession and the European one too will impact its exports, it is changing its policies to expand the domestic market. If China doesn't need to export so much, less demand for US Treasuries, higher US long term rates. Meaning the US standard of living will drop drastically.
according to professors Richard Walker and Daniel Buck, investment within China has been primarily for the domestic market for a few years now
in other words, China initiated that transition before this bubble started to burst
Hang Seng...now that's a mostly popped bubble for ya. It's like an 2x EFT of the DOW (or rather the S&P 500- down 9%, ouch).
here's an excerpt from the Walker/Buck article, my summary wasn't quite right, too reductionist, but you get the idea:
In the transition to capitalism in the West, an essential element was the development of the home marketthe demand for goods produced by budding capitalist industry and agriculture. This required a transformation in a countrys way of life such that needs came to be met through the purchase of commodities. A shift took place from household production to manufactured goods, in which migration to the cities played an essential part. This affected all social classes, but the most important site of consumption was the bourgeois home, as both the largest single purchase and the repository of consumer durables such as furniture and appliances. Purchases were further stimulated by rising incomes and falling commodity prices.
Exports to external markets also played a significant role. Britains industrialization was vigorously stimulated by exports to Europe, the colonies and the United States. But in a country as large as the usthe worlds largest integrated market for almost two centuriesmost trade was inter- and intra-regional; American exports were never more than 5 per cent of gdp before the late twentieth century. France is another case where exports made a modest contribution to industry. In any event, successful export of manufactures requires a competitive level of cost and quality that is hard to acquire without experience, and has normally come only after domestic industry has been firmly established.
Chinas potential home market is vast. In the post-Maoist era, domestic consumption began to rise quickly, first with the jump in rural disposable income associated with decollectivization and the expansion of tves, then with growing urban demand from cadres and workers released from ration-card limitations. They were now paid in money instead of direct services from their danwei, and enjoyed rising wages in successful enterprises. Leading segments in the new consumer market of the 1980s and early 90s included televisions, bicycles, motorcycles, clothing, refrigerators and air conditioners. This new demand was met mostly by firms still under state or collective ownership, responding to market signals. But many of the companies of that era subsequently disappeared under the pressure of competition and overproduction, signalling an emergent capitalist economy. Since the mid-1990s, new goods such as mobile phones and automobiles have taken the lead in the domestic market as disposable incomes have risen. They are supplied increasingly by private companies, such as Ningbo Bird and Nanjing Panda Electronics. Foreign firms provide many high-tech goods, but seldom directly dominate domestic markets.
Demand continues to grow smartly. The absolute number of upper- and middle-class consumers in Chinaaround a million affluent urban households and at least 40 million well-off, by one estimatemeans an ample demand for domestic goods. Chinese urbanites, like Parisians and New Yorkers before them, are in the forefront of consumer culture, as their per capita real income, rising at an annual 5 per cent, increasingly outstrips that of the rural and small-town population. China is the second biggest car market worldwide, seventh in total retail sales and third in luxury goods. [19]
Urban China is rapidly moving into the worldwide mainstream of consumer culture. Global retail chains such as Ikea, Carrefour, b&q and Sogo dot the big cities, as do domestic chains like Gome, Wumart and Lianhua. Brash new shopping centres are appearing, such as Beijings Oriental Plaza. Shanghais Xintiandi is so successful that developer Philip Huang has been asked to create similar projects in twenty-three other cities. Because the government understands how vital cities are to the development of consumption, the State Council has favoured an urbanization strategy as a significant way of absorbing surplus production. [20]
Chinas push into private housing is likely to undergird the shift to a mass consumer society. Dwellingsmostly apartments, some condominiums, and upscale suburban housing tractsare major outlays of income for the newly emergent upper and middle classes. And they must be filled with consumer products: private housing promotes consumption with a vengeance, while it fragments the remaining collective consciousness of the Maoist era. [21]
Export markets have been vital to Chinas development since the establishment of foreign-trade zones in the south soon after 1980. Moreover, foreign firms have led the way to modern production and the opening up of global markets. Korean, Japanese, German and especially Taiwanese and Hong Kong companies have set up shop, introduced new technologies and taught Chinese workers and bosses the latest in product engineering, factory management and global distribution. The linkage of global standards of production with Chinas millions of hard-working, disciplined and low-wage workers makes a formidable combination on the world market.
China has become a major force in international trade, closing in on Japan in total exports and undercutting domestic manufacture in North America, Europe and East Asia. The share of exports in gdp rose steadily during the first two decades of transition, from 5 per cent to 25 per centthe same figure as Germany. After 2000, with Chinas entry into the wto, the figure leapt to 35 per centa level comparable to that of Korea. But most of this is driven by foreign-owned firms and joint ventures. Chinese firms depend most on the domestic market, where household consumption constitutes over 50 per cent of gdp. To view exports as the sole engine of development in modern China is therefore to repeat the classic mistake of liberals who see trade, rather than production, as the heartbeat of economic growth. [22]
When the people of a nation have lost all trust in their elected officials, bad times are sure to follow.
If Obama(the Messiah)wins, fires of joy. If Obama(the Messiah)loses, fires to destroy. If Obama wins and is taken out by a muslim radical fires of hell!
The Plunge Protection Team is hopelessly outmatched by market forces.
If we're going to lay out "G" then let's just do it the old-fashioned way - direct infrastructure.
Building roads, bridges, trains, and power grids at least doesn't confuse risk and hazard and erode our entire system.
A voluntary subscription of bonds for the purpose would be received positively by Americans.
If anyone has a minute to check this out it would be appreciated:
Macrobuddies - Economic Insight and Analysis: REBUILDING AMERICA
.
i'm not worried...i pulled 80% of my cash out of the market back in March. my adviser told me i was crazy...
i close my eyes at night and earn interest...my skin has never been clearer