Asian Market Cliff Diving

asia is a claim on dollars.

Timber.........First Not Nemo

when asia is no longer a claim on dollars...

decoupling.

C'mon, cliff diving it ain't, but heli-skiing, now that's close!

I went down, down, down... and the flames went higher... Wheee

Don't worry. It'll just bounce. We'll all catch it on the way back up to the top. How long can that take, 3 or 4 months top, right?

We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.

If we're (US citizens) not buy stuff we cannot afford from Asia using credit, how do we expect Asia to loan our government back those same dollars in order to bail us out so we can start buying stuff on credit again?

In other words, without consumers buying stuff on credit, where does Asia get the $$$ needed to allow our government to take out more credit?

So ponzi schemes in different countries behave alike.

Importantly, going down is part of the job for many independent contactors now. They feel unity and a sense of purpose. Prostitutes of the USA, unite!

Hank Paulson's Mom writes:
If we're (US citizens) not buy stuff we cannot afford from Asia using credit, how do we expect Asia to loan our government back those same dollars in order to bail us out so we can start buying stuff on credit again?

More than that, governments around the world are/will be borrowing for their own bailout plans.

It's uncertain how much will be drawn on in the next 1 to 2 years, but it's definitely in the trillions.

Was there a debate? Who is running for president anyway?

You know, a couple years ago when we talked about credit getting tight, house prices falling 40+% in bubble markets, sub-10000 DOW, IBs failing, etc. some idiot would always pipe up and say "THEY WON'T LET THAT HAPPEN".

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

In other words, without consumers buying stuff on credit, where does Asia get the $$$ needed to allow our government to take out more credit?

Why should they continue?

Honestly how many of you believed the Chinese stock market rise was based on fundamentals?

So much wealth is being vaporized all around, truly a sight to behold.

Every time CR posts another Shanghai chart I kick myself. WTH didn't I short that sucker!!! But every time you think "it can't go any lower" and, of course, it does. I figure it'll bounce someday... somewhere just north of zero.

Does anyone have any leads/ contacts for energy or commodities trading positions in the states or off shore. I am willing to relocate.

Slight correction:

So much faux wealth is being vaporized all around, truly a sight to behold.

Peak Oil = Peak everything.

Peak Asia
Peak Food
Peak McMansion
Peak Credit
Peak CDS
Peak Ponzi
Peak Equities
Peak Goldman Sachs
Peak Corruption

China is unfortunately a nation of slaves, actually, they are way cheaper than slaves.

why does asia need dollars?

Chicago Dude writes:"

where does Asia get the $$$ needed
to allow our government to take out
more credit?
Why should they continue?"

Maybe they shouldn't. However, all of the Western countries seem to be basing their hopes and dreams on the premise that they will. Seems like a bit of a risky gambit to me...

Comrade Bear,

I rode that sucker (FXI) on the way up but never got around to shorting it. I'll be happy to kick you if you kick me also.

More than that, governments around the world are/will be borrowing for their own bailout plans.

It's uncertain how much will be drawn on in the next 1 to 2 years, but it's definitely in the trillions.

Have been pondering this one myself.

China's in a sticky position. Their people have now had a taste of luxury, a couple years of living well. Their leaders must be hoping somehow we can turn our consumption--their economic engine--back on. Otherwise they have an angry populace that knows how things could be. Better than a populace like North Korea, where no one has any idea of how nice life can be.

Calling all cars. Calling all cars.

This is an APB.

Be on the lookout for incipient bubbles. Lookout for incipient bubbles. These bubbles are incipient. Repeat, incipient, so they may inflate at any time.

These incipient bubbles are often followed by or preceded by busts, recessions, and, in some cases, depressions that take the form of giant sink holes that you might drive into when looking for incipient bubbles after they've already inflated and burst.

oops.

Trading Jobs writes:
Does anyone have any leads/ contacts for energy or commodities trading positions in the states or off shore.

Yes, there is a gold mining position in China you should pursue. Job requirements are ability to absorb mercury and arsenic and a sense of the righteousness of inequality.

Remember when everyone was telling us to diversify and buy faster growing Chinese stocks when they were right at the peak? I do.

From Mr. Xie's standpoint, countries with big foreign exchange reserves, such as China, Japan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, should talk with the United States and then "swap their U.S. dollar assets in debt instruments like treasuries for equity assets like stocks."

That's easier said than done. The United States is reluctant to let foreigners become majority owners of its big financial institutions, but it may discover it doesn't have a choice.

As Mr. Xie said, "The U.S. still has an unrealistic view of itself. Even though the U.S. is the largest debtor in the world, it behaves like the largest creditor. Americans may need much more hardship to change their attitude."

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commodity collapse is a function of removal from land...by force.

and food.
and water.
and shelter.

mostly, it is removal from security. by billions of people...

I am not a billion people.

I am a man.
with land.
and food.
and shelter.

guns, gold, and money....not so much.

Comrade Bear,
EEV (Emerging market), EFU (Europe, Australasia, and Far East), EWV (Japan), FXP (China)
All are UltraShort (2x leverage) ETFs
All make good end of day trades because the US market generally influences their action for now, and you can avoid timing the last minute rally/dives and subsequent gaps created by after-market/pre-market trading

This ride is starting to make me nauseous. I want off. . . .

Jes writes:
China's in a sticky position. Their people have now had a taste of luxury, a couple years of living well. Their leaders must be hoping somehow we can turn our consumption--their economic engine--back on. Otherwise they have an angry populace that knows how things could be. Better than a populace like North Korea, where no one has any idea of how nice life can be.


Dont underestimate our monetary ties to China. They will come to our aid - with huge conditions. Did you think we took North Korea off the terror list because they became less dangerous?

Anyone here think anything is going to happen to Citadel? Getting a lot of press lately it seems.

re: DJIA
The dive through 9000 scared off all the 50+ year old crowd. I predict the dive through 7000 will scare off the 30-49 folks. Everyone under 35, like me, won't care... bargains @ 5000! I guess we're the villagers with the monkey collection...

We gave nations are hearts and dollars- and now we are pigs.

The charity of America -

The lone forgotten one.

Will you slackers get back to work already? We've got bills to pay.

Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs
Asia Times
Soulmates in latte land
by Julian Delasantellis

cracker writes.

I am a man of 38 years, with a child of 21.

scare me.

Citadel is DONE! book it!

"Peak Capitalism".

Don't worry, John McCain will fix it. I heard him tonight repeatedly telling me he can and will fix everything.

And he thinks the oil that is drilled and bottled in the USA stays in the USA and doesn't respond to the world oil market. I don't think it works that way. I don't think he has any grasp of economic issues. In fact, I think he knows about as much about the economy as I do. And that is not good.

crispy&cole,
The first statement I heard was to the effect of "down 30-35% this year but no requests for redemption yet"

Did you think we took North Korea off the terror list because they became less dangerous?

Funny you bring that up. It was surprising to see how that flew under the radar so well.

SPX Index Charts - S&P 500 Index Index Charts

S and P all data is in the dreaded cat reclining against the wall formation.

bond girl,

"It does not matter which side you are on. Neither side is going to squash a bubble that makes everyday Americans think they are richer (for the time being). Talk about political suicide."

I'm smitten.

YouTube -

Nostrovia,

the monkey collection...

buy the monkeys.
buy more monkeys at a higher price.
go to town.
shill buys monkeys at greaer than spot.

everybody disapears...

where did the money of the village go?

EvilHenryPaulson - rumors on other sites of the opposite...where there is smoke...who knows for sure which hf's are going to blow up, but its obvious by the market action which industry concentratiosn are causing them the most pain (commodities and tech stocks)

Everyone paying up for Lehman next week, Citadel.... recipe for disaster?

Well, if it any consolation, Asia will most likely recover long before we do.

Chris P. has an interesting perspective today that is mostly accurate, over the long run;-}

Just gotta live long enough:
Market Observation - Tim W. Wood 12.04.2009 

Someday this war's gonna end...but this panic has to end first!

the names of the monkeys have been changed to protect the money.

Decoupling, anyone?

I'm flattered Smile

Just 50% from here and there is hope for a bottom.

For hf's the days of 2/20 are over for some time.

so few monkeys pay attention to the village money....

Allen M - good to see you post...we were worried about you and anonymouse all day...

Yeah, where is Anonymouse??

bond girl,

Sorry...wrong catch...

meant this one.

YouTube - Sweet Child O' Mine Music Video

sorry.

Nostrovia,

Yes, this time is not different. There will be a bottom. And we will get there, eventually. And there will be a recovery, eventually. And, in the long run, we will all be dead, except maybe Conjure.

Yes, but are they "up" on a 10 year chart.

It's uncertain how much will be drawn on in the next 1 to 2 years, but it's definitely in the trillions.

The end of the US dollar bond bubble and it won't be pleasant.

Right on schedule: here is the Opec cut- 1 million barrels per day.

Man this panic and recession is moving at friggin lightspeed.

Someday this war's gonna end...

asia off, what may amount to double digit percentage, and

and yet S&P off a paltry 7 points.

two three pointers and a free throw.

I'll take the under.

Dont underestimate our monetary ties to China. They will come to our aid - with huge conditions. Did you think we took North Korea off the terror list because they became less dangerous?
Noble

Don't overestimate our monetary ties to China. China's exports to other nations than the US is up ten fold over the last 8 years.What did Mick say about Chinees woman "you never know what they have inside their silky sleeves"

Goodnight all

crispy&cole, I'm just re-reporting what I had heard. I kind of got suspicious the same way I did when the DTCC/aleablog were trumpetting $6bn in net exposure for Lehman CDS. The operative words were "of the positions processed so far" and the release was done immediately at the auction's end

Facts about Citadel (wikipedia)
HQ in Chicago
1,200 employees, 500 in IT.
$20bn in assets
First hedge fund to issue bonds
Founded 2 insurance subsidiaries
Accounts for 20 to 25% of options volume in America

Citadel : Home still around

Wow, bigger story than I first thought

Sorry was there an announcement about Citadel?

Maybe Tim Knight is right when he says - greatest shorting opportunity of a lifetime,,..

Good night all.

I thought the Citadel was a girls school.

mr paulsen.

EvilHenryPaulson - Personally, I think one of Cerberus funds blows up first, like the one holding GMAC or the one holding Chrysler or the one holding their Airline...

I would bet my last dollar that big hf's like Citadel and Cerberus are working the phones with Paulson to be included in this bailout. Their model is similar to an IB, except they dont have access to the fed windom.

crispy,

fund of funds run....end of story.

wealth mangagement funds treasuries and TIPS to 0, thats a zero.

Yes, there is a gold mining position in China you should pursue

Also, several coal mining opportunities opened up after that last earthquake.

I'd guess from the lack of response that you guys are reacting to the BBG article that noted a 30% loss in one of the funds.

Maybe yes Maybe no...

They have a really strong track record though so I'd guess there are few illusions there.

"Maybe Tim Knight is right when he says - greatest shorting opportunity of a lifetime,,.. "

Truer words have been spoken...

Cerberus structures all of its investments into separate vehicles. Chrysler goes down and they only lose the portion of equity they contributed originally and never sold

Citadel goes down, it all falls at once and it is everywhere. I guess we'll know come option settlement Friday (Saturday) if they really do account for anywhere near 20% of daily volume.. the short selling ban must have blown out some of their positions due to the volatility

Cerberus doesn't fail, they are one of the chosen ones

We need a bank run of the day blog covering runs around the globe.

"Their people have now had a taste of luxury, a couple years of living well."

Which planet are you on?

Sorry, I misunderstood from just the headlines. The story from Bloomberg is just about one $10bn fund within Citadel, so hopefully it doesn't spill over to the other funds/investments

info on cerberus please.

any links, or general info i missed posted here? thanks.

also, any outlook on gm would be gravy, i know it's ugly, looking for any straight data or facts.

Crapballs, you guys have finally figured it out:

Citadel is the one whose fall may mean the end of the OCC- a true bend over and kiss your butt goodbye moment. How about no more options....no more portfolio insurance. This mess is starting to remind me of when Lloyds failed.

Panic on fast money was very interesting.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Did they add builder to the short list ?

get ready for the big shutdown...

tomorrow....I max two carts at food and more, and wal-mart.

thats four carts on credit.

food and stuff I need for the next 6 months.

tinfoil is on the short list.

E-mail to McCain: (yeah, that made a dent) -

Pharaphrased - I will vote for the first person whom addresses the war on savers.

Two months ago...still no response.

You go Joe the plumber.

"Citadel is the one whose fall may mean the end of the OCC"

Could you expand on this comment? why would it be the end of the OCC?

AllenM,

The official production quota notwithstanding, I think that OPEC will have a hard time controlling production cheaters. Some countries are going to need the cash, like Venezuela or Dubai.

cerberus swung for the fences at the height of private equity acquisitions. There was one deal they were going to let die on the fine in the next few days/weeks due to lack of financing.

Chrysler was always going to go down, but the government could still ail them out there.

GM, I do like the company. Problem is they've burned $4-8bn in cash per quarter for ~3 years now. They need to make it through end of 2010 before they'll start to realize
- new lineup
- new union pension/health scheme
- layoff older workers at edge of retirement, hire newer cheaper workers under the 2 tier UAW agreement
- recovery in auto demand, recovery in credit financing supply

About this being the shorting opportunity of a lifetime: I agree, and have made good money shorting everything so far, especially after selling last Friday and buying on Tuesday. However, I do not expect the powers that be to suffer the little people making easy money like this for long.

Daily Mail, 2006:

"iPod Nanos are produced in a five-story factory at the facility, stationed with police officers who check everyone who enters and leaves to "thwart rivals intent on industrial espionage." For 15 hour workdays, pay at this facility is approximately US$50 per month.
The Mail on Sunday's pictures of "iPod City"
Image source: The Mail on Sunday (click for enlargement).

The second facility visited benefited from its proximity to Shanghai. Dormitories are outside the plant, work is only 12 hours of the day, and pay is almost US$100 per month (the security guards who watch over the workers earn up to US$150), of which up to half is paid back to the company for housing and food."

The lap of luxury. Oh, and dormitory and workplace conditions stink.

Japan's Aso: U.S. must bolster rescue plan

"The markets are selling off stocks because investors still think the steps by U.S. authorities are not sufficient,"

yogi, they have room + board paid for plus there is a PPP difference.

Rural people move to the factories for 2-3 years. Earn 5 times their annual salary outside of the city. Take home those savings and buy their own little farm

Read some of James Fallows of the Atlantic Monthly for some good first hand accounts of China's cities

"Cerberus doesn't fail, they are one of the chosen ones
Anonymous"

You mean three.

Kung Fu P- I think they will just dial back in saudi- the rest of OPEC already has production problems. Of course demand is dropping like a stone too.

Now that pesky letters of credit problem will be even more problematic to solve, but hey delivery of a sufficient amount of gold by jetliner should ensure that load of oil sailing on time.

Free on board terms are going to return.

Someday this war's gonna end...

You mean three.

You mean nine?

You mean nine?
Interesting Times

No I mean $10 trillion.

No I mean $10 trillion.

Not $64 Trillion?

CR has posted some of the Cerberus letter related to the Chrysler fund...maybe he can obtain the latest.

nik -995.68

Winner. LMAO.

PalinAsPresident.com 

Click on each item for funny Palin sound bites and enjoy. Be sure to click on the door 3-4 times. Red phone once. Don't miss each front side of the desk. The CRT screen. The left bottom sofa cushion. All three windows and 'Miss Wasalia' at the top of the flag pole plus many others including the empty diploma frames...

I don't see 15 hour days at $.25 an hour as "luxury", free 100 person dorm room or not. They will not accept too much more of our inflation.

I posted this in a previous thread:

Per Bloomberg - Treasury to give money to PMI, MBIA and ABK.

I once told a young aspiring child that it was fruitless to aspire to anything else except a lumberjack. He agreed and starting cutting timber for lumber for houses. Now he shoots endangered species in Africa for more money. Is there a moral?

Not $64 Trillion?
Interesting Times

No I mean printing press.

RE: iPod nano...even if the factory workers are better off than they were in the countryside, which I don't doubt, it's a bit obscene how much Apple's margins are on this product. There are some industries where manufacturing is never going to come back to US shores.

Robots will do more and more of this work, thank glod.

Palin as Pres

got to open the door, repeatedly.

and check out the dinosaur outside the windows

And now for something completely different.
YTMND - Virtural Acid Trip

There are some industries where manufacturing is never going to come back to US shores.
Kung Fu Panda

Whaling oil lamps? Bison tongue purses?

Robots will do more and more of this work, thank glod.

The next bubble?

I, for one, welcome our robot overlords.

Sorry, the passage was from ArsTechnica, which quoted the Mail.

I, for one, welcome our robot overlords.
Interesting Times

Until you find out they have a curious fastination with Interesting Times' butt.

Peak pessimism, this is the bottom.

"In a fortification with bastions, the citadel is the strongest part of the system, sometimes well inside the outer walls and bastions, but often forming part of the outer wall for the sake of economy. It is positioned to be the last line of defense should the enemy breach the other components of the fortification system."

If there is a breach of the citadel, there is the possibility that the town it protects will fall. Can't have that.

I, too, Kent Brockman.

India opens at 10,237.10.

238 to go before they can join the other super powers.

Elvis,

I was thinking of consumer electronics assembly, but...sure.

238 to go before they can join the other super powers.
REBear

You mena the Halls of Justice? With Aquaman, Wonder Women, and Flash?

Sensex off over 500 in first few minutes

New thread.

I'm bad at typing.

FRB: Beige Book--Summary--October 15, 2008
Beige Book for some late nite reading... .. .

Some stocks down 19% in india. Stock guru says we cant have too many days left of days like this. Lady asks why and her colleague points out that the index will be at Zero and then goes onto say why you should not be in equities and need to protect yourself. Refreshing honesty via CNBC india.

CNBC TV 18 Video: Free Videos Online. Video Clips, Video Movies, Live TV & More at In.com

Todd Sinai is a douche.

“The No. 1 thing that drives housing values is incomes,” said Todd Sinai, an associate professor of real estate at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

He was encouraging bubble behavior back in 2005:

"The annual cost of owning, not the price of the house itself, is what homebuyers should (and do) consider when contemplating a purchase."

And then denying the bubble as it blew.

They need to stop consulting these bullshit artists as though their opinions are worth a squirt of dog whiz. The freaking curtain has been pulled back. Yet still they trot out these whoreconomists to spew whatever sounds good at the time. Enough!

FFDIC,
Does it include late night pictures too?

I just want to know where is Popeye?

Has anyone checked in on him, last we heard he was going deep, I mean long.

Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:

"Todd Sinai is a douche.
'The No. 1 thing that drives housing values is incomes'"

The funny thing is he had it right...and that's exactly where housing prices are diving to...2x-3x income.

Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:

"Todd Sinai is a douche."

I wrote him and told him so after that farce. Wharton means over-priced BJs from all students.

Breaking our lows next week is a given.

"Peak pessimism, this is the bottom." -- Optimistic Joe.

Even ignoring your track record for predictions, I think Monday's rally proves there is still way too much optimism. These cheerful folks need to be burned a few more times before "peak pessimism" is even possible.

I am beginning to think taking a contratrian view of China is probably a good idea. Everyone thinks China will eat our (and Europes) lunch in the coming times. Well I personally don't see how they can "uncouple". Their currency is still tied to the dollar last I checked so if the dollar goes down so does the yuan. Also all their employment comes from industrial production for the West. What happens when Europe and the US don't want Beanie Babies and Rollex knock-offs anymore? Well the Chinese have a large savings rate probably for this reason. They know in their heart of hearts that someday they will get laid off and there is no government safety net for them. The Chinese will slowly blow through their collective savings and once that happens they starve. End of story.

This downside continues in India as well, one of the largest markets in Asia. The index fell to end the week at 9,975.35, the lowest level since June 20, 2006. The decline since this January has hauled more than 60 per cent of the stocks of National Stock Exchange i.e. 75 per cent below their January peaks. This is dismay for investors with the Sensex collapsing over 50 per cent from its heights in just 9 months.

Lisa

Hedge Fund Jobs

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