Mervyn King: A 'long march' out of recession
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 10/21/2008 - 4:31pm (293 comments)
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Why are the streets of Paris lined with trees?
Nemo?
dang
UK economy relies disproportionately on earnings in the City, compounding the problem.
GBP behaving like a basket case vs USD
Here is the long march to serfdome
The pubs and cigarette manufacturers will still do very well...
"GBP behaving like a basket case vs USD"
Indeed. It is one of the many currencies in which gold is breaking out to new highs.
GoldMoney Founder's Commentary
So... because the US decided it wasn't necessary to do any sort of oversight, the rest of the world went along and bought enough of our toxins to mortally wound their own banks? Or is it only a flesh wound, dark knight?
A long March, but a short April?
What's the over/under for when the Fed Funds target goes below 0.25? And remind me
what the current target is, again?
Yen is toying with the penny again, btw.
But forget about that. Apple Apple Apple!!!
England has a bearish King named Mervyn? Is he bummed because his entire chain of discount clothing stores just went bankrupt?
"What's the over/under for when the Fed Funds target goes below 0.25? And remind me what the current target is, again?" 1.50 target vs. 0.7 achieved.
The Fed could drain to enforce the rate, but that would crash the stock market 13 days before the election. I suppose that is a consideration, even for an independent organization.
Am I the only one who thought he was talking about the CEO of Mervyns?
I like "The Age of Innocence" as the name for 2003-2008.
But wait a minute... There's not an innocent person in the whole story...
never mind
obviously, we do not have enough liquidity in the system to support a move to drain the excess liquidity.
More Brawndo.
The headline made me think the King (of England) was going to bail out the United Kingdom.
On second thought, there hasn't been a King there for a VERY long time.
Cordially,
EK
We now face a long, slow haul to restore lending to the real economy, and hence growth of our economy, to more normal conditions
I don't think he knows what that word means.
But at least King's articulate speech is head and shoulders above "This sucker is going down!"
--
The American disease originated in England, so we must watch British developments. However...
Why There Is No Political Solution to Americas Problems
I get asked about proposing a solution all the time because that is the mindset of Americans when they hear, or read, criticism that they partly, or mostly, agree with.
The real problem with America IS Americans! They have degraded fast, intellectually as well as morally. Please study American history very carefully. We got lot of morally bankrupt dopes and way too may Crooks in power. How do you change grownups? They believe in the message of Change from McCain and Obama and would vote for one of these obvious demagogues. There is higher probability of the Second Coming of the Messiah.
The only solution for dopes is prolonged misery and the only real solution for Crooks that rule over Americans is death. Therefore, until we see more than 100,000,000 Americans suffering and most of the Crooks dead there would be no real political solution. And it would be nasty reaction when it does arrive.
For the foreseeable future, Crooks would have firm control over the American political apparatus. No, bad leaders and bad outcomes dont just happen to Russians and Germans. Now it IS Americans turn. America is no longer Gods elect country. Maybe, China is.
Democracy: The God That Failed! (How many born-and-bred Americans would read a book like that?) We have the best system? "The Fatal Conceit"!
WE GOT ONE OF THE WORST POLITICAL SYSTEMS IN HISTORY. HOW ARE AMERICANS GOING TO DEAL WITH THAT SAD FACT? Mark my words: Democracy will be thoroughly discredited, thanks to America (the worst preacher of democracy), in the decades of 2030s and 2040s. It is the Rule of the Moneyed Crooks under the guise of popular voting. The scam began is England and was perfected in America.
In summary, Americas ruling elite have made very heavy investment in breeding Americans into dopes (it is called brainwashing via propaganda) because that seemed like the most profitable activity. Free market at its best! How much money they made off the Scam Market alone?
Jas
PS: Americanized Indian dopes will be in deep dodo because they copied the American system with a nasty virus (Scams and Debt). Free copies arent free! Opportunists masquerading as geniuses.
--
Milton Friedman quote was displayed on Bloomberg...
"Great Depression was caused by govt mismanagement."
Can you spell Greater Depression?!
Jas
This is also an interesting discussion, for whatever it is worth
(interesting, not perfect)
Accrued Interest: Credit market indicators that really matter
I played both Judas And JC. Years ago.
You sing too, Misean?
Send up the youtube link. I know you have one.
was leh CDS settle a non event
Do we ever get the numbers on who took the bath?
China Caps Bank Overhaul With Agricultural Bank Aid (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Oct. 22 (Bloomberg) -- China's government will pump $19 billion into Agricultural Bank of China and remove most of its $120 billion of bad loans, paving the way for the lender to restructure and sell shares to the public.
The cash injection will be announced today, a bank official with knowledge of the matter said, declining to be identified before the announcement at 3:30 p.m. A unit of China's sovereign wealth fund will take a 50 percent stake in the bank and China's finance ministry will hold the rest, the person said.
The bailout completes a decade-long, $500 billion-effort to reorganize China's banking industry after years of state-directed lending caused bad debts to balloon.
Bond Girl --
Was talking to a person heavily invested in real estate today who maintained that there was nothing wrong with the financial system and that the panic is nothing but media hype.
I guess that counts as "innocent".
Kind of like George Bush...
sg,
Used to be bonds were nice and stable worth checking weekly, now you need to check them hourly
You think the MMIFF will be successful in lowering corporate rates, and eventually the 2yr swap? Or is the 2 yr swap so large because the 2yr notes are in a bubble with the rest of treasuries?
For some reason A 'long march' out of recession reminded me of this...
Bataan Death March - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In other words a lot of people are not going to make it...
EHP,
"I guess good mines think alike"
Especially Glod mines.
Nostrovia,
monta's ankle,
I assume everything was managed ahead of time. Fed+Treas are set to rein in $21.4bn in market operations tomorrow
Too much funny business going on to tell for now, and longer term it doesn't make much difference where the market is going
Outsider,
"You sing too, Misean?
Send up the youtube link. I know you have one."
Yes I sing too. Perhaps.
Nostrovia,
It appears that everyone but the USD is suddenly in deep doodoo.
These are unprecedented moves.
Check out the Mexican Peso here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=USD&to=MXN&submit=Convert
And the South Korean Won here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/convert?amt=1&from=USD&to=KRW&submit=Convert
According to Charlie Gibsons enfortainment show, half the toy factories in China are shut down. Lots of sad young chinese exworkers shown. Sorry if someone else posted this already.
km4 --
CSC beat you to it
Nice reference.
km4,
You were not the only one to think along those lines. I adjusted my thoughts to think of an exodus heading towards a refugee camp.
Comrade Misean,
It's not worth making a second post to correct a typo in another post that remains understood. btw-- why are so many people called comrade here? was it spontaneous?
Four percent of the world's palladium supply just went off line due to low prices:
Expired
lawyerliz,
2,400 toy factories shut in Guangdong I heard in a story about workers who were finding out they had just lost 2-6 months pay along with their job
Lead story at the WSJ today:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122463251866656551.html
Big Currency Bets Backfire
By ANTONIO REGALADO in Mexico City and JOHN LYONS in São Paulo, Brazil
One day, Controladora Comercial Mexicana SAB de CV was thriving as Mexico's No. 3 retailer and a competitor of discount giant Wal-Mart Stores Inc. The next day, Oct. 9, the family-owned chain, known to Mexican shoppers as La Comer, had filed for bankruptcy protection, crippled by risky foreign-currency bets.
...
Like the financial version of Bataan.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 10.21.08 - 9:08 pm | #
Yup did not look upthread
Well done CSC !
ow leh cds does not matter
Two weeks ago it was the cause of nuclear winter
And you wonder why I think the whole cds thing is smoke and mirrors
Comrade Beach --
It appears that everyone but the USD is suddenly in deep doodoo.
It's good to be the king, isn't it?
We have the reserve currency, and there is nothing the world can do about it! Woo hoo!
re: Long March
Don't look so glum. There's also another famous Long March that I think Mervyn King might have been thinking of. Damn those sarcastic Brits eh
And you wonder why I think the whole cds thing is smoke and mirrors
The pre-Iraq War similarities just keep compounding.
Nemo: Is the surge in the USD driven by fundamentals or by fear? Alternatively, is the rush out of emerging currencies driven by fundamentals or fear? And now that the rush has started, will it abate or accelerate?
CSC is back and he isn't Lahde after all?
If they cut the entitlement programs they will have more than enough for the military budget.
Cutting Social Security or Medicare is not feasible economically, morally, or legally. Won't happen. Everything else is pocket change - and much more useful than the military anyway.
Military spending will continue unabated. Our oil companies and other multinationals still require their services. Possible social unrest will require some units to be brought back home. Perhaps instead of military spending for the Pentagon we'll see much more spending for Blackwater and their like.
Attempts to convince Americans that old people should be stripped of Social Security or babies allowed to starve in order to subsidize the multinationals will be singularly unsuccessful. And yes, it will be framed that way. There has been a large minority committed to the traditional American policy of a small military throughout the post-WWII era of the giant military. They have been largely suppressed and kept out of the media and national politics; but they are about to come back in a very big way due to the combo of Iraq and dire public finances.
If the multinationals want a military force, they'll have to pay for it themselves. For the most part, they won't; military force rarely pays for itself.
monta's ankle
CDS are definitely serious business. I just think the Treasury/Fed have been keeping a close eye on them ever since the Lehman BK and that one way or another things were managed behind the scenes to avoid a big headline of FAILURE from making things tougher on the poor bureaucrats working 24/7
good to be king that's my line about usd
More bailouts everywhere else and dollar stays strong
EHP,
"btw-- why are so many people called comrade here? was it spontaneous?"
No, I started it.
My fault I'm afraid.
The Dope thing I think is a crispy...
Not sure though...well I mean obviously Jas started it, but crispy...I think made a name of it.
Could have been Nemo or Max...can't remember.
Nostrovia,
You dollar bulls need a big serving of Jim Rogers followed by some Marc Faber while Soros walks by and even he laughs at you
Yeah, the story said a lot of Chinese had been working for free. The Chinese govt had better spend some of their dollars buying food from us for those young Chinese, or there is going to be baaaad problems there. Or, I guess they will go back to the countryside?
EHP,
It is funny that you mention it, because I was thinking earlier today that the swap problem is exactly as backwards as Treasury trends right now (short-term vs. long-term).
I do not think any of these indicators mean anything in this market (although I still watch them with interest). As Nemo mentioned in an earlier thread, LIBOR decreasing is kind of a "well, what do you expect when the government is backing the debt" sort of thing. But at the same time, Ts are unintelligible. So what is the TED telling you then? What are swap spreads saying right now when they are completely contradictory? The logic explained earlier in this thread is that a decrease in swap spreads should indicate that market participants place a higher probability on the situation being resolved in the short term, but that ignores a lot of the dynamics in the bond market. I can't offer a better alternative for figuring out when we can say the mess is getting resolved.
What would it mean if the indicators did not show signs of easing in the face of unprecedented levels of government support? That would be incredibly ugly. But why haven't rates dropped like a frickin' rock if they are based off of interbank debt that is guaranteed? Perhaps they still will. This is a very mixed bag right now, though.
EvilHenryPaulson - ever considered negative interest on the USD?
Comrade Beach --
Nemo: Is the surge in the USD driven by fundamentals or by fear?
Neither; it is driven by margin calls.
USD is the world's reserve currency. Lots and lots of debts are denominated in dollars. Those debts are getting repaid, hence the need for dollars, hence the spike in USD/whatever. (Except for Yen, which is getting repaid even harder.)
And now that the rush has started, will it abate or accelerate?
Unknown and (probably) unknowable. We have never been here before.
Just my layman's view.
lawyerliz,
They have the money, they do have to spend it lest there be a revolution.
So we're just waiting, watching... or at least I have bee
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"You dollar bulls need a big serving of Jim Rogers followed by some Marc Faber while Soros walks by and even he laughs at you"
The dollar is bullish for the moment. Which presents an excellent opportunity to ease out.
The best quote that captures the human condition comes from Kurt Vonnegut: "And so it goes". You can try to sugarcoat human history but it can neber cover up how vile humans are.
Re: the name for the recent period:
Let's see: CA house prices at 10x income, hundreds of billions in CDOs on fundamentally worthless loans, a major and very expensive war in the wrong country, and the whole system founded on the Chinese financing all this stuff we can't afford:
"Age of Delusion" is a slam dunk.
ot a dollar bull just noting that as every other country taps it's budget for bailouts which are huge relative to their gdp the dollar stays above them
That is the advantage of being reserve. The dollar is like gold so long as the other currencies keep falling down as they try to attack the throne
What would they spend it on? Chinese aren't gonna buy stupid toys that Americans would want.
Back to my mantra. Infrastructure and pollutiion control?
I suggested food because a young Chinese mom was worried about feeding her kids.
Nemo,
You are correct that financial flows have been swamping trade as necessitated to settle contracts.
As for where we go from here? It is a huge devaluation of the US dollar, I wouldn't think there is much of a argument about that... the only question is against which currencies and that depends on the games central banks play with each other
How about "the Gelded Age"?
No real justification, I just like the name.
That is the advantage of being reserve. The dollar is like gold so long as the other currencies keep falling down as they try to attack the throne
Don't get to used to this. It worked post WW II but all the metrics that were in place then, US greatest creditor nation and exporter, no longer apply. This aggression will not stand
EHP,
"I wouldn't think there is much of a argument about that... the only question is against which currencies and that depends on the games central banks play with each other"
With global currencies printing like crazy? The reserve currency will be last to tank. It'll tank but not first.
Nostrovia,
Where's my umbrella?
I bought some palladium today. The stock of the mine that closed is trading at 75% of cash in the bank. You get the mine and reserves for free.
Interesting times.
Actually NO palladium can be mined at a profit today.
CR has 3 or 4 commenters who "own" the place; when a new person posts, they're usually slammed...
(On big news days, people flock to find out what CR has to say, with good reason...this is the best finance blog.)
Do you two think that's an accurate description?
military force rarely pays for itself.
Because the Federal Government is the public domain, success can't be looked at from a purely financial perspective when judging the worth of some aspects of military spending. No monopoly rents when the Feds develop or invent something; unfortunately, this does privilege does not apply when the Feds contract out the R&D. Although DARPA and NASA probably never made a dime, the nation's ROI was incalculable.
Ross,
"Actually NO palladium can be mined at a profit today."
Not sure Glod or platinum can either.
Nostrovia,
Definition courtesy Mark Twain:
mine, n.
"A hole in the ground with a liar at the top"
Jeffrey,
I think the commenters are usually pretty benign...
lawyerliz,
Chinese factories and power stations do have the necessary pollution control, they just choose not to use it and this becomes a problem when they switch to local/cheaper dirty coal than pay the freight from the north for anthracite. MIT study on it came out about a month ago.
Look for the emphasis to be on:
pension plan
health care
roads (sooo much asphalt needed)
railway
airports
with some targeting of higher value manufacturing sprinkled out there.
the Shanghai clique in Beijing are urban-centric, but they need to take care of the rural population since the migration flows have flipped. Look to reinstate rights to pre-1989 crackdown levels
also keep an eye out for foreign aid/loans. Not just in the Shanghai Cooperation Organizatio
From 1947 until 1958, the U.S. deliberately encouraged an outflow of dollars, and, from 1950 on, the United States ran a balance of payments deficit with the intent of providing liquidity for the international economy. Dollars flowed out through various U.S. aid programs: the Truman Doctrine entailing aid to the pro-U.S. Greek and Turkish regimes, which were struggling to suppress socialist revolution, aid to various pro-U.S. regimes in the Third World, and most important, the Marshall Plan. From 1948 to 1954 the United States gave 16 Western European countries $17 billion in grants.
To encourage long-term adjustment, the United States promoted European and Japanese trade competitiveness. Policies for economic controls on the defeated former Axis countries were scrapped. Aid to Europe and Japan was designed to rebuild productivity and export capacity. In the long run it was expected that such European and Japanese recovery would benefit the United States by widening markets for U.S. exports, and providing locations for U.S. capital expansion.
I suggested food because a young Chinese mom was worried about feeding her kids.
The problem is not China having food for her - China's not short of food - the problem is what she does to earn money for food. Even China can't afford to put half its population on welfare indefinitely. In the short term, China will buy her food from domestic farmers to keep their income up - their domestic farmers are already in a foul mood for a variety of reasons.
Jeffrey,
"CR has 3 or 4 commenters who "own" the place; when a new person posts, they're usually slammed..."
Conspiracy theorist. You probably believe in the PPT.
OUCH!
Need new batteries for the Super Colander Tin Foil Hat again.
...grumble...
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope writes:
"Not sure Glod or platinum can either."
I don't know about platinum, but there are still some Glod mines that can produce at about $400 now that energy costs are back down a bit. But why should they? Might as well leave it in the ground and conserve cash to buy up junior explorers.
Jeffrey writes:
CR has 3 or 4 commenters who "own" the place; when a new person posts, they're usually slammed...
What makes you say this?
Ahhhh, Chinese infrastructure.
Here is my concern - if the USD continues to surge, do we see more Icelands and Argentinas pop up around the world?
And what would that mean to Western banks that have extended loans to companies operating in these countries?
misean, LOL!
......
Jeffrey,
My experience is that those not named lucifer/satan have meaningful contributions in fact or humour and thus have no problems posting
sm_landlord,
"I don't know about platinum, but there are still some Glod mines that can produce at about $400 now that energy costs are back down a bit. But why should they? Might as well leave it in the ground and conserve cash to buy up junior explorers."
Ef dude! Excellent point. That's going into the notebook.
Nostrovia,
Bond Girl --
What makes you say this?
I think you meant:
"What makes you say this, you moron?"
Misean,
Physical palladium and the miners via PMPIX for glod and silber. What a lay up.
Battery cars? Nickel is a BIG by product of palladium or vicy versus. CF Norilsk...
It's gonna be a fun ride.
My experience is that those not named lucifer/satan have meaningful contributions in fact or humour and thus have no problems posting
EvilHenryPaulson
I still think its funny in a 3rd grade type of way when he writes only: "I'm not wearing any pants"
Of course I still get quite kick out of the word "asshat" too so maybe its the just beavis and butthead in me....
lawyerliz writes:
CSC is back and he isn't Lahde after all?
Hudson: [reading a motion detector] I got signals. I got readings, in front and behind.
Frost: Where, man? I don't see shit.
Hicks: He's right. There's nothin' back here.
Hudson: Look, I'm telling ya, there's somethin' movin' and it ain't us! Tracker's off scale, man. They're all around us, man. Jesus!
Dietrich: [looking through an infra-red scope, walks right past an Alien] Maybe they don't show up on infra red at all.
[the Alien pounces on her and drags her up to the ceiling]
sm_landlord,
I didn't see your post re: dollar bullish for near term
I completely agree, when I mentioned "dollar bulls" I was talking about what we'll see in the coming years.
yea lawyerliz you should read the previous set of comments in the CRs post below.
a good laugh... (needless to say I was sure it was the Andew)
.....
it = CSC (sorry bra!)
Comrade Beach,
"Here is my concern - if the USD continues to surge, do we see more Icelands and Argentinas pop up around the world?
And what would that mean to Western banks that have extended loans to companies operating in these countries?"
I'm thinking 1998...but writ MUCH larger.
Nostrovia,
Although DARPA and NASA probably never made a dime, the nation's ROI was incalculable.
DARPA and NASA could work just fine if we had not one single carrier group in the water. And it's been a long time since they developed anything that saw civilian use - the last thing was GPS, and that was developed in the 80s. All the new techs are either too gold-plated or too classified for civilian use.
The military labs will be conserved to some extent. They'll be drastically shrunk; but they'll probably have to do a lot more work on things for civilian use. The real economy might actually see more value out of military research after the cutbacks than they do now.
Are you suggesting I am mean or was that a joke? I can't tell anymore.
Battery cars? Nickel is a BIG by product of palladium or vicy versus. CF Norilsk...
It's gonna be a fun ride.
Ross
You watching Deprieska & Rusal? Think he'll have to dump Norilsk?
I think there's no way Putin/Medvedev would delay the VEB loan until 1 week after the deadline. They would extend the funding and worry about and figure out ownership later
"As to his [Buffet's] allusion to robins in the spring -- a nice play on it's the early bird that catches the worm -- as someone has noted, it's the second mouse that gets the cheese."
i.e. - The early worm gets eaten.
EvilHenryPaulson - i think the 2 yr swap will come down in line with 3 month libor -the pv of the floating payments. so, its all about getting libor lower. the fed giving usd to the ecb who give it to the euro area banks is very important as it prevents them from having to bid through the roof to get usd that no one really has or wants to lend. the year end is also an issue as all 3 month lending goes over year end which is always problematic.
i agree with bond girl. there are so many factors that are pushing the spread - including a continuing flight to the safety of treasuries that keeps govt risk rich vs corporate risk - return of capital vs return on capital.
i think the confluence of all the steps taken will help but ultimately the fed has to set the rate at which they will auction the term funds and let the auction decide the amount instead of auctioning an amount and letting the mkt set the rate.
Bond Girl --
Just a joke.
I have no idea what he is talking about, either...
Jas Jain writes:
Milton Friedman quote was displayed on Bloomberg...
"Great Depression was caused by govt mismanagement."
yeah sure
where government has been whored and raped buy the most powerful
or i guess we could attribute it to the all powerful masses
Fair Economist,
Did you read the Der Speigel article? Are you familiar with the IMF and it's regulatory power over The US given by treaty?
Oil is the reason we are in Iraq. I'd say our multinational oil companies have done fairly well in getting the US taxpayer to pay for the military intervention.
Have you been tracking the rise of the mercenary forces in our country? Posse Comitatus is easily bypassed using these private armies. Martial law will allow for the suspension of posse commitatus but will our soldiers actually fight against their own? Mercenaries hedge that bet and provide more money for the military-industrial complex.
What if the argument is framed by the fact the country can not afford the entitlement programs? I agree there will be unrest but I also think they'll give it a shot. If the population is given the choice between food and subsidy programs which choice will they make.
We have witnessed unprecedented actions and expenditures issued by our government. The legality of many of these actions is questionable but done anyway.
Obama has already started warning about sacrifice in Americas future. If you can't afford it, you can't have it is in all of our futures.
I believe the system has crashed and will need to be rebuilt. Turmoil and tragedy will mark the next few years. Let us hope we'll be able to salvage the Constitution and some semblance of democracy.
Of course maybe the plan is to ensure the dollars reserve currency status at all costs. Part of me believes this is the true crisis the treasury has been facing. Financial warfare is being waged. Maybe we were the country that declared war on the Euro and the ruble. Maybe not.
http://www.globalissues.org/article/3/structural-adjustment-a-major-cause-of-poverty
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
A 'long march,' yes...
Like the financial version of Bataan.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 10.21.08 - 9:08 pm |
To short, more like the Chinese Great March, 4000 miles under constant strafing. And that didnt lead to a good economic location at the end of it.
B_R,
This is kinda cool...i.e. Aliens..and Metalica mix:
YouTube -
Nostrovia,
sg,
The first TAF held that would roll over year end + 4 days was undersubscribed by banks. The stop out rate was like 1.6%
I think that's why the Fed has commandeered JPM to lend directly to the market (with Friday's deals to Euro banks, and the new MMIFF plan that JPM will lend through to 5 funds that each support 10 institutions)
Evil Henry,
I cannot speculate on Russian shareholder politics. Ya Amerinsky Spion.
Tried to get palladium inventory from Norilsk in 99-2000 and was almost arrested. Tried to short the "Ford" $1,000 palladium but no one would lend the metal. EVIL SWISS!!!
Ross,
Aaah, I was just testing you and you do seem to know the market very well first hand. Any anecdotes or tidbits you drop would be appreciated from a pure matter of interest
You some kind of metals broker?
DARPA? Didn't AL Gore create them?
How topical:
SRIHARIKOTA, India (Reuters) - India launched its first unmanned moon mission on Wednesday following in the footsteps of Asian rival China, as the country celebrated its space ambitions and scientific prowess.
Hey, don't they know the moon is ours?
How about Lithium? How do you invest in that? Does it mostly come from Chile?
While TED and LIBOR are down, I have seen no evidence that the credit situation for comsumers in regards to mortgages, cars, cc's etc is improving.
If anything they are getting worse. As well as consumer credit getting tighter.
As long as that consumer situation continues, the PTB are going to have a hard time reinflating.
Its interesting to see when the LIBOR TED OIS all have eased off..the stock market still continues to go down
Are we now pricing in the earnings declines ?
I can understand that the US stock market can go on a prolonged decline but what about Asia ? Their economies are still going fine at 7 - 9% GDP growths ?
alba,
Lithium
Step 1: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs-2008-lithi.pdf
There is no solid play on it.
Also don't go all in one Rhodium, even if it pays off it will take you years to sell it all
INO Futures and Commodities - Energy - RBOB CRACK SWAP Dec 2009 (NYMEX:RM.Z09) Price Chart and Quote
If the spread is a negative number, the products are priced at less than the cost of crude oil.
Crack spread futures and options trade as a one-to-one ratio of crude oil to the product. When trading crack spread options, a single options position results in two offsetting futures positions when the option is exercised. Crack spread futures are also available in two-one-one, three-two-one, or five-three-two ratios of crude oil and its underlying product.
jeez, you'd almost think that there's an election upcoming.
contract expires new years eve.
Hey, don't they know the moon is ours?
Don't worry; they're just going there to set up the first lunar Kwik-E-Mart.
(It's not a real CR thread until I get in a few ethnic slurs.)
YouTube - Superman Spiderwoman
Evil Henry,
Not a metals broker just an old broken down research director who 'retired' in 82 and has been trading sardines ever since.
No one followed metals and mining in the late 60's so the new guy got the trash industries. Back then, I couldn't even spell conglomerate or knew who Bernie Cornfeld was.
6:54 p.m.
Paulson: Treasury readying plan to buy mortgage assets
6:54 p.m.
Paulson: U.S. working to prevent millions of foreclosures
Did you read the Der Speigel article? Are you familiar with the IMF and it's regulatory power over The US given by treaty?
The IMF will not want the US to deepen its budget deficit by maintaining these expensive military programs. They won't want to anyway; military spending cuts are a routine IMF demand.
Oil is the reason we are in Iraq. I'd say our multinational oil companies have done fairly well in getting the US taxpayer to pay for the military intervention.
Yes, but they have had to rely on an astonishingly compliant administration for that. 70% want out of Iraq already; that number will climb; politicians will trip all over each other to end "Blood for Oil" in the very near future.
Have you been tracking the rise of the mercenary forces in our country? Posse Comitatus is easily bypassed using these private armies. Martial law will allow for the suspension of posse commitatus but will our soldiers actually fight against their own? Mercenaries hedge that bet and provide more money for the military-industrial complex.
Are you saying they will stage a coup? Blackwater is about to be totally cut out of government financing (they are deeply tied to the Republicans).
What if the argument is framed by the fact the country can not afford the entitlement programs? I agree there will be unrest but I also think they'll give it a shot. If the population is given the choice between food and subsidy programs which choice will they make.
They will give up an interventionist military long before either.
ComradeColin: "And So It Goes". You mean the band Rockpile didn't come up with that?
fair economist,
while I appreciate the sentiment and the real compassion in which it was given, I think near term realities will be quite different than your assertions.
Of the two presidential train wrecks, how can anyone know the winner won't turn out to be another Carlos Menem?? Austerity is a very real possibility, and at very the minimum means testing for Social Security and severe cuts in Medicare and Medicaid. These programs, cannot and won't be able to be funded long term. They were gambles by a small group of men 60+ years ago, based on a late 1800's German philosophy. These men are long dead, and there is no one to blame left living. These programs were NEVER meant to be funded by a decreasing worker pool, and the only assumption to be made in 2008 is that the model, if there was one, was based on population growth that never happened.
As far as the "people not letting it happen" are concerned, what are you going to do?? Not to get on a second amendment kick, the discongruity in desire of the common man to action by the elected, is the sole reason the second amendment was installed. Yet "the left" has spent countless years attempting to strip that away from the individual, and if they had been successful, the populous at large would have no option but to "take it and smile".
Argh, I get frustrated because there are no easy answers, but nothing is out of the realm of possibility, especially without a fundamental shift away from politics for profit, which both of these dismal candidates proffer as "change", and in this case as in others, the gloden rule applies.
He who has the gold makes the rules.
The hypothesis and subsequent experiment of American democracy has been corrupted and broken, like so many empires before it.
My favorite quote:
"Here, like everywhere else, laughing and singing, dancing and dreaming are not exactly the whole of reality;
and for one ray of sun shining on the hut, the rest of the village remains in the dark."
Simone Schwarz-Bart
Did anybody read this?
DEALBOOK; One Day Doesn't Make A Trend - NY Times
Bond Girl --
Thanks for the link. See also Why Banks Won't Lend at the Baseline Scenario.
ow jeffrey,
afte a post like this...
The Dope thing I think is a crispy...
Not sure though...well I mean obviously Jas started it, but crispy...I think made a name of it.
Could have been Nemo or Max...can't remember.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope
you need to say...
hey misean, can i get a youtube with that.
Ending on a brighter note, the winter wheat in up in N. Texas. Rough rice is 15 cents and raw rubber in Bankok is lower by half.
Time for a rate cut.
re the IMF, social unrest, cutting off social programs...
No one without inside information can know. Speculating for fun anyway, the paralel of ancient Rome suggests that the programs should be kept. We've accepted a lot in exchange for the meme of 'citizenship' as a privileged status. Take away our bread and circuses and our armed populace may start sniping the authorities rather than each other. Blackwater doesn't have enough operatives to patrol the entire rural U.S. and the cities. This government still has 'legitimacy' under the theory of 'the consent of the governed'. If it becomes unmistakeable that there is no consent, things will get bloody in a hurry.
Oil Equations | 10.21.08 - 11:00 pm |
Very interesting. Either someone's betting heavy on lowering component prices (gasoline for emotional reasons, maybe jet fuel for a slower holiday season) or someone is betting on a crude oil boost (unlikely a big move before year end), or both.
Looks like gasoline is being bid down with the most interest and is marching ahead trying to get the other components to follow suit
Fair Economist,
Thank you for the discussion.
Too lazy to attribute this quote or get it right but here goes:
The future is exceptionally hard to predict.
Good night all, be kind to each other.
I was amused that Sorkin would write that article after the video CR put up with him not too long ago.
If anything they are getting worse. As well as consumer credit getting tighter. OntheRun
Personally, I haven't seen any change in the amount of credit card offers, home equity line offers, balance transfer offers, purchase checks, or smaller credit line notices in the mail. Consumer Credit hasn't slowed down. I think the "powers that be" are BALDFACE LYING about a credit crunch.
IMHO, the consumers has CHOSEN to stop spending and are saving. And that's what has freaked out the Corporations. They are unable to budge people to buy more crapola. People are at the end of mindless mall shopping and suffering my terminal bloated consumerism.
The majority of people are on the Money Diet and pushing away from the gluttonous consumer table.
Good night
ren,
Citizenship in looked upon as a right. The distractive possibility of a social safety net are clear, but the degradation of civic action and the increase in civic apathy, to which I include my own, generate a "who gives a crap" mentality.
Recent events domestic and international show that this is the prevailing sentiment, and coupled with the mindless political vitriol, lead to no other outcome. Mish is right in some regards, we won't learn this as a society until our situation truly forces us to suffer.
Analogous to a teenager with too much money and time, we never appreciate what we have until it is gone, or we are forced to fight and suffer to retain it.
Misean
My take - noisier still, luscious:
YouTube - Spacemen 3 - "Revolution" Taang! Records
Asia's next.
Bwahahahahahaha
CC
Ministry of Truth writes:
I finally heard enough election ads today and Obama lost my vote. I have decided to write in Ron Paul.
That makes two votes.
Fair Economist writes: Cutting Social Security or Medicare is not feasible economically, morally, or legally.
I've always thought that starting Social Security and Medicare was not feasible economically, morally or legally. And that every day they continued was an affront to civilized life.
It all depends upon whether one's preference is for primitive tribalism or freedom.
Sorry Ben, the collectivists broke it before I got here.
rps,
Percent change at annual rate
August Preliminary
Total: -3.7, Revolving: -0.8, Non-revolving -5.4
Annualized rate of change
I have no idea the last time there was no net credit creation. The fed can see the early data we can't, and by all indications things should have been significantly worse in Sept and Oct (see new terms for GMAC financing)
Guys this is getting really serious now.
UBS, Merrill Said to Ask Bankers to Fly Economy to Cut Costs
UBS, Merrill Said to Ask Asia Bankers to Fly Economy (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
Conjure's Bodyguard,
If they cut the social safetynet, people will suffer who never thought they would. Hence question authority. Bread and Circuses pacifies and distracts. Imho, it's in the interest of the rulers to provide both.
I dunno. Maybe, the powers have decided, that it is better for them that we serfs are fully aware of our status. If so, there is a huge awakening coming. People who are forcibly disabused of comfortable illusions can get violent. Who gives a crap won't be possible anymore. Unlike some other cultures, we haven't recently been schooled to despair and accept hunger.
OT Palin news
AP INVESTIGATION: Alaska funded Palin kids' travel | General News | Comcast.net
A squeeze on take-home pay, soaring living costs and the decline in consumer credit increased the risk of a sharp and prolonged slowdown.
Preach it Mervyn! Whilst discussing all the esoterica of high finance, we would do well to listen to this rather direct explanation of exactly what is wrong as it contains the clue of how to rectify the situation.
A more fair wage does not mean wage inflation. Wage increases have not matched productivity increases in western economies for about a decade.
High commodity prices are driven, for the most part, by excessive oil prices. Our creditors in the Middle East are pirates aided and abetted by lack of regulation of our own oil traders. They are fools if they think they can continue to squeeze more money out of strapped consumers here and elsewhere in the world. They won't even get their principal back on their investments.
Our bankers are fools if they think they can somehow squeeze households into paying back the full loan amounts on vastly depreciated houses. Better to write down now and take what you can get than wait until the overshoot takes almost all of it. [/rant off]
UBS, Merrill Said to Ask Bankers to Fly Economy to Cut Costs
Will the airlines scrape the slime off the seats between flights?
My Danish wind turbine co. dropped 10% today, presumably lockstep with oil. 50% off yearly highs. I smell Havarti.
PBS's Charlie Rose interviews Hank Paulson midnight CST...
I wonder if UBS and Merrill will start collecting the frequent flyer points for the corporate balance sheet
Dollar Bill On Floor Sends Wall Street Into Frenzy | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
Sorry, I really am signing off now....
Sorry Ben, the collectivists broke it before I got here.
kidbuck | 10.21.08 - 11:27 pm |
collectivists like reagan and bush
What about tin? Is it still economically feasible to mine tin? You know, for our hats?
Serious question: what happened today with the Lehman CDS payouts? Can't find any news....
I can watch Paulson on PBS right now.
If he hasn't restarted his drug habit, I'm sure he's really feeling the tick right now
All those who want inter-generational warfare over SS and Medicare, need not apply.
A lot of us 'Boomers' saw the folly of the Great Society via LBJ and laughed.
SS is being taken care of with false CPI calculations and means testing. Medicare will be solved with some hodge podge national health and of course means tested also.
The key word is 'means tested'.
Still I pity wage earners and companies that are forced to pay into this AARP chicanry. AARP has become a stooge for insurance salesmen.
Taxes must increase and smart money will flee. Thus has it always been.
Plantagenet writes:
Oh, contraire. People in those countries buy gold in their own currencies.
But Plantagenet, when I buy gold in Canada, the price of gold is marked by world settings in USD, not in CAD. To chart gold, one uses USD. If USD falls off 40% (say) over the next year, gold will move in relation to USD, not to CAD. Correct?
Have you been tracking the rise of the mercenary forces in our country? Posse Comitatus is easily bypassed using these private armies. Martial law will allow for the suspension of posse commitatus but will our soldiers actually fight against their own? Mercenaries hedge that bet...
--Gone Fishin'
This country is huge and has 300 million citizens armed with almost as many guns, not to mention an internet where all sorts of lethal explosives can be researched.
There is no way that mercenaries can control it. At best they might be able to limit the infrastructural damage done in a rioting city or two. Even if the gov't used the entirety of military personnel and NG, it couldn't enforce border-to-border martial law. The desertion rate alone would be 50%.
I do believe that in smaller towns, homegrown militias will be able to maintain a semblance of order. For the most part, however, the influence of government will crumble in a matter of weeks, if not days. New government (localized at first) will self-organize.
In time a confederation of sorts will emerge, led probably by a "savior" with fascistic tendencies.
As for the Constitution, I'm afraid it has been forever de-legitimized by the last eight years. No one will again give obeisance to, or honor, the Presidency or Congress or Supreme Court. Never again.
Those august bodies are history, thanks to "The Party That Wrecked America."
Would you ever again be enraptured by a Jimmy Swaggert sermon, ingnoring the fact that he paid a prostitute to f*** a doorknob? Doubtful.
If this sucker goes down (which I think it will) it likely all goes down.
Get ready for a great big American identity crisis.
Conjure's Bodyguard:
Austerity is possible. Things may be rough. But the military will be savaged before anything happens to Social Security or Medicare. Old people vote. I would expect at least 7 of the current 11 carrier groups to be mothballed before anything happened to either program. Maybe more.
The hell with it. We're all doomed
EHP
I've spent a lot of years checking balance sheets but this one confuses me. I come from an accrual accounting jurisdiction, so the cash-only numbers seem a bit awry.
Is there some kind of translation program into accrual of cash-based national accounts?
CC
"To chart gold, one uses USD. If USD falls off 40% (say) over the next year, gold will move in relation to USD, not to CAD. Correct?"
It's all ratios. Different people look at different ones. In India, for example, it's generally not the USD.
Lights out for me ...
knew who Bernie Cornfeld was..
Hoho! Ross, long, long ago I used to go out with his cousin. The family was VERY proud of his success.
Then something went very wrong...
RP
I think you are dead right about the consumer moving away from the trough.
Mortgage and auto lending have definitely changed tho. They are now actually requiring down payments and credit scores above room temp. Can't speak of cc's.
Comrade Counterpointer,
I am almost completely lost...
I'm not an accounting geek, but even if I were I think I would need to know from where that question comes before attempting to answer.
if it was about the credit creation -- that was consumer only, the national figure was still ~6% (just about low as it gets) thanks to banks
I am not sure whether some of you realize that the current situation is beyond anybodys control. The IMF and WB set are delusional if they think they have any credibility left, and credibility is what makes any act of commerce possible. If they bring out their old playbooks, the international system is DOA, but they have no other playbook.
Either they will relearn (unlikely), change (eventually), become irrelevant (likely) or create nationalistic resentments that will result in a depression that will make the GD1 look good.
The real problem is that they are made of lot of old people (and their suckups) who are mentally
stuck in 1950-60s. They will find out the hard way, but most people learn no other way.
Anonymous writes:
It's all ratios. Different people look at different ones. In India, for example, it's generally not the USD.
If the rupee fell off 40% independent of the USD, there would not be the same flight to gold on world markets, as if USD fell off 40%
"By the close of day, economists were estimating the dollar bill's net worth at just under $270 million."
LOL, from bond girl's onion link.
Dollar Bill On Floor Sends Wall Street Into Frenzy | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
Charlie Rose: "Is it possible the government makes money on AIG?"
Henry Paulson: gaping mouth
Priceless.
So by reading Paulson's face, it's now official and just a matter of how much money the US does lose on AIG
Good news...
Telegraph | Error 404 | Sorry, the page you have requested is not available
Republicans facing electoral disaster in Congress
Republicans are facing their biggest electoral disaster since the Watergate scandal with even the party's Senate leader in grave danger of losing his seat.
Paulson: "Money we're putting into banks is money well spent"
He can only talk about the vagaries of what might have happened if they hadn't acted, and by default saved money by not facing domesday
Did many suffer/die for this kind of crap ?
Our latest outrage had a large cast:
Deregulators. Sellers/flippers. Realtors.
Mortgage brokers. Appraisers. Lenders.
Underwriters. MBS sellers. Rating agencies.
Accounting firms. Layered-CDS crooks.
CDS buyers. Market manipulators/Hedge funds. Silent witnesses.
Be nice'ta get clean.
EHP
Dude, I'm jus sayin that the national balance sheet doesn' work on an accrual basis. It has problems of innumerable kinds on a cash accounting basis but if you turn this into an accrual regime, the whole system busts. My experience includes big international payments in an accrual system. The domestic system went thru some convulsions on the way.
Why is this important? Because of tax, flows, commitments, FDI, transfer pricing and the rest in international trade.
CC
CC
I'm not looking at credit in terms of any national balance sheet. I'm looking at credit creation as being the key to the economy and stock market over the last 20 years. 1950-1980: debt 150% of GDP. 2007: debt 350% of GDP.
If that credit stops growing, as part of a larger debt unwind (as too much debt relied on continual credit growth for repayment), then the problem is not the borrowing itself but the earnings growth being exposed for a pyramid of debt
rps writes:
Personally, I haven't seen any change in the amount of credit card offers, home equity line offers, balance transfer offers, purchase checks, or smaller credit line notices in the mail. Consumer Credit hasn't slowed down.
I haven't seen a slowdown in those things either, my mailbox is packed with those about every other day.
Saw the author of Black Swan on Newshour today.
He thinks 700B will be chump change.
Re: prolonged period of hardship
Oh bloody hell, what next?
That is the advantage of being reserve. The dollar is like gold so long as the other currencies keep falling down as they try to attack the throne
I don't think it is a throne that is very desirable. It looks to parallel the period from 1925 to 1931 when Britain was forced off the gold standard.
Gold standard - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The problem is that a rising currency is exactly not what the U.S. needs as it reduces exports and increases imports again, i.e. the C/A deficit. IMO the U.S. will soon contemplate devaluation as otherwise serious deflation will result which will prolong and increase the severity of the downturn.
I expect an action sooner rather than later similar to 1934 where the dollar was devalued vs. gold by 40%. Bernanke is definitely familiar what happened then, he does not want a repeat.
Japan down -374.99
Did anybody read this?
Like this crisis wasn't scary enough without that pic of Ken Lewis?
Treasuries were little changed, with 10-year yields near the lowest in almost two weeks, as stocks fell and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Gary Stern said central bank actions haven't calmed financial markets.
sm_landlord writes:
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
"You dollar bulls need a big serving of Jim Rogers followed by some Marc Faber while Soros walks by and even he laughs at you"
The dollar is bullish for the moment. Which presents an excellent opportunity to ease out.
Yes, but ease at where/what?
``Restoration of stability has not yet been achieved,'' Stern, the longest-serving Fed policy maker, said yesterday in the text of a speech in Escanaba, Michigan.
`Crisis in Confidence'
We are already in recession,'' Bank of America's Levy said in an interview yesterday.It's deepening. We're in the middle of a crisis in confidence.'
asty, nasty republicans. Thank god and baby jesus that the democrats, the party enjoying a plurality of "monied" donors, the investment bank and hedge fund guys, are going to be here to finish the job republicans left. Well, thats not fair, a loaf hear, a Thanksgiving turkey there, gee, it feels like the holidays in 1960's Hells Kitchen.
Whew, glad that's over.
We can lie to others, but we can't lie to ourselves.
Merrill Lynch axes 100 staff in Asia
The woes for banking staff are beginning in Asia in what promises be a painful run-up to Christmas. Asiamoney has learned that US brokerage Merrill Lynch has axed 100 staff across its Asia-Pacific operations, industry sources say. It follows a statement made by the bank's chief executive officer John Thain on October 20 that "thousands" within the firm would go.
Japan looks like it will finally get a Maglev train
LDP OKs maglev line selections | The Japan Times Online
Tokyo-Nagoya
~$50bn/500kph/40min/300km depending on route chosen though
FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - The world wakes from the wish-dream of decoupling
The world wakes from the wish-dream of decoupling
By Martin Wolf
EHP
No way. You're looking at the means and numbers to reflate the casino. It's just not going to work.
Have a look at states and munis going broke: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
I live in a wealthy county which is slashing social programs. It's ugly.
Please more contention from your end, I appreciate it.
CC
Forget growth.
We need population cap-n-trade.
.
Oil Equations,
jeez, you'd almost think that there's an election upcoming.
It looks similar to 2006, doesn't it? The 3 months view is just shocking. It simply has to be manipulation!
Holy crap... this can't be good..
"Over the weekend, Federation of Hong Kong Industries Chairman Clement Chen said the credit crunch could bankrupt a quarter of Hong Kong-owned small and medium businesses by next Chinese New Year (Jan. 26), costing 2.5 million jobs."
CC,
I'm just not clear what we are discussing/arguing or if I was even responding to the right post.
If you could see my amalgamated postings, I don't think its within the Fed's abilities to "reflate the casino" no matter how determined they might be.
States/counties/munis and their finances have been something I've paid attention to at least since I learned about Texas and other states fighting a new federal accounting standard that would force them disclose future obligations like pensions, and who could have missed Montgommery Alabama's $2bn sewer system.
My remarks about credit creation were using it is an indicator or sensor for the system (which is why I was happy to use the consumer figure as it would be more of a leading indicator)
The new SSAE supersedes AT Section 501, Reporting on an Entitys Internal Control Over Financial Reporting. The new SSAE is effective for dates or periods ending on or after December 15, 2008, and is therefore effective for December 31, 2008 audits of financial institutions that are required to have an examination of internal control over financial reporting pursuant to the requirements of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 (FDICIA).
RE,
We did find out after the fact that in 2004 and 2006 the Saudis flooded supply with increased production in the ~2 months around the election. They had less spare capacity in 2006 but it was still measureable
FT.com / US / Economy & Fed - Bigger role urged for regulator with safe hands
Bigger role urged for regulator with safe hands (restriced content/free registration)
Sheila Bair, head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, is among the few US regulators to have escaped scathing criticism for their handling of the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.
The FDIC has played an increasingly central role in recent weeks, seizing troubled banks across the country and arranging takeovers of failing institutions. Some Democratic politicians want to give Ms Bair, a Republican, a bigger role. Barney Frank, the chairman of the House financial services committee, urged President George W. Bush in a letter this week to put Ms Bair in charge of co-ordinating a government-wide effort to reduce home foreclosures.
Such votes of confidence stand in sharp contrast to assessments of other regulators. For instance, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the main markets watchdog headed by Christopher Cox, has been accused of falling down on the job in several recent reports drawn up by the agencys own internal watchdog. The failures of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, and the conversion of other investment banks into bank holding companies now overseen by banking regulators speak volumes, said one regulatory expert. A more brutal indictment of the commission would be hard to find. Also facing heat is the Office of Thrift Supervision, which regulated IndyMac Bank as well as Washington Mutual, which last month became the biggest bank to go under in US history. It also supervised AIG, the stricken insurer taken over by the government. Yet with the debate on how to redraw the financial regulatory landscape only starting, and decisions likely to be significantly shaped by next months presidential election, many former regulators say picking winners and losers is premature. There are also questions about who would be best equipped to oversee crucial sectors such as the market for credit derivatives. I think everybody, all the regulators missed this one to varying degrees, says William Isaac, a former chairman of the FDIC from 1981-1985. He presided over the 1984 collapse of Continental Illinois National Bank & Trust, the biggest bank failure until Wamu. Though the current system could be simplified, he said, having one super-regulator in charge of financial stability as put forward in a US Treasury proposal in March could be a mistake. The current structure is messy, but it also has built-in safeguards. Youve got different agencies looking at the same issues through different sets of eyes, coming to different conclusions and then arguing about it. Two former chairmen of the SEC expressed concern that in its haste to fix the problems exposed in the US financial system, Congress could end up ignoring the needs of the average investor. Of all the regulatory bodies that operate at the federal level, the SEC is the only one dedicated to protecting investors.
What is being proposed really degrades the importance of coming at regulation from the point of view of the stockholder, says William Donaldson, who was chairman of the SEC from 2003 to 2005. Arthur Levitt, who chaired the commission from 1993 to 2001, says: Investors have come to believe that the SEC is the only agency that is protecting their interests. Both former chairmen also decried what they described as the politicisation of an agency that had once been proudly independent. Its important that we try to find ways to make the commission even more insulated from political pressure than it is today, says Mr Levitt.
Part of the problem was a chronic lack of funding. Congress is a competitive place. Agencies that pound the desk and define their problems get funds. Agencies that are content to make do simply dont get funding. Who leads the agencies in a new administration will also determine which regulators emerge stronger or weaker. [That] has a bigger impact than people realise, says John Douglas, chair of the banking and financial institutions group at law firm Paul Hastings. The heads of these agencies have a huge impact on their agenda and the way they move the political process.
Outlook seen challenging for luxury goods in 2009
Outlook seen challenging for luxury goods in 2009
| Reuters
By sector, D'Arpizio said a global slowdown was expected in watch and jewelry sales for the last quarter while shoes had been a record category for the luxury sector.
"Shoes are becoming the most important accessory in a woman's look," she said, quoting women as saying, "'We do not compromise on shoes.'"
Yacht sales, especially those costing more than $15 million, would not be hurt by the crisis, she said. Designer furniture is expected to be hit by the real estate crisis.
Peak Perfection: White House again finds just the right Christmas tree in N.C.
The tree hunt continued.
"This is so critical," Rochon said. "It's President Bush's last Christmas. It's got to be perfect."
Finally, they found just the right tree. It could be trimmed to 18½ feet to fit beneath the Blue Room's ceiling. The branches were strong. They tapered nicely from the top.
"We're going to proclaim this the White House Christmas tree," said Rochon, nesting a red, white and blue ribbon in its branches.
Japan down -487.19
If borrowers and accountants would
submit to lie-detector testing, maybe
some money would move again.
But then the tester would have to be
tested by a Bhuddist Eagle Scout.
And the last bushtree should be one
of those burned Redwoods.
.
U.S. gasoline demand dropped 6.4 percent last week from a year ago, the 26th consecutive weekly decline, a MasterCard Inc. report yesterday showed.
There's a chronic mismatch between demand and supply,'' said Michael Ivanovitch, president of MSI Global Inc.There's very little growth in the U.S. and Europe.''
Oil prices dropped as stocks declined and the U.S. dollar climbed to 20-month high against the euro, reducing the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. OPEC, supplier of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, is poised to announce an output cut at an emergency meeting this week.
It's about the real economy and that's going to drag demand down,'' said Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo.The market may have priced in an OPEC cut already so they may have to do a little more than what the market expects.''
At last, Bank chief admits: it really is a recession |
Business |
The Guardian
Guardian
At last, Bank chief admits: it really is a recession
Taking stock of weeks of "unprecedented" turmoil in the financial markets, King said a collapse of the world's banking system had only narrowly been avoided. "Following the failure of Lehman Brothers on September 15, an extraordinary, almost unimaginable sequence of events began which culminated a week or so ago in the announcements around the world of a recapitalisation of the banking system.
"Not since the beginning of the first world war has our banking system been so close to collapse."
Bank head hints at more rate cuts as he admits recession has arrived 'Worst bank collapse in 90 years' damaged confidence
Bank head hints at more rate cuts as he admits recession has arrived |
Business |
The Guardian
We did find out after the fact that in 2004 and 2006 the Saudis flooded supply with increased production in the ~2 months around the election. They had less spare capacity in 2006 but it was still measureable
I am aware of that. Bhe crack is really not driven by supply. This is the key sentence by Oil Equations:
If the spread is a negative number, the products are priced at less than the cost of crude oil.
This means that refiners are not getting paid. Now why would you see such a chart?
Bank Lawyer's Blog: FDIC
Bank Lawyer's Blog
Barely Bair-able Backstabbing
Via the San Antonio Business Journal come excerpts from an affidavit filed in the litigation between Wachovia and Citigroup over the failed attempt by Citi to take Wachovia off the outstretched hands of the FDIC, excerpts that show what we previously speculated: the FDIC was double-dealing Citi behind its back while publicly affirming its deal with Citi.
FDIC flip-flop altered Wachovia’s fate, court records show - San Antonio Business Journal:
San Antonio Business Journal
FDIC flip-flop altered Wachovias fate, court records show
RE,
The truth is I don't think anyone would try and swing an election by depressing gasoline prices this year. Even if it was a low cost, there really isn't a reward for it.
I think this is related to the massive position JPM built up when it acquired Bear Sterns adding to its own positions, and then started to dump when it saw LEH/GS/MS were vulnerable and in need of raising capital. JPM also got to review LEH's books thoroughly before the bankruptcy too.
JPM is head and shoulders above the other commodity market participants in terms of power right now, and in this time we have seen significant distortions from spot prices
I think this is related to the massive position JPM built up when it acquired Bear Sterns adding to its own positions, and then started to dump when it saw LEH/GS/MS were vulnerable and in need of raising capital. JPM also got to review LEH's books thoroughly before the bankruptcy too.
That's a good argument. I see some merit though the chart looks incredibly suspicious.
EHP,
And why only after the week of October 4? It just doesn't smell right.
INO Futures and Commodities - Energy - RBOB CRACK SWAP Dec 2009 (NYMEX:RM.Z09) Price Chart and Quote
RE,
Don't look at the red line (50 day MA), the decline started in the last week of September along with the worldwide equity market declines that followed the Lehman implosion and the subsequent selling that triggered many margins calls
More bailout contracts contain blacked out portions - BailoutSleuth
More bailout contracts contain blacked out portions
You are right, I got hung on on the MA. Appologies.
Twice the evil.
Thank god they saved my favorite brand of bath soap and shampoo. The Mr. Bubble brand is critical to my reinflation economy-saving strategy.
Mr. Bubble moves to Minnesota
The Village Co. has bought the Mr. Bubble brand, the company announced today.
The Village Co., a Chaska-based provider of bath and shower products, bought the brand from New York-based Ascendia Brands Inc., a health and beauty products manufacturer that filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy Aug. 5.
The sale was approved by the bankruptcy judge on October 8. Terms of the sale were not disclosed.
We are delighted to add Mr. Bubble to our brand portfolio, said president and CEO Frank Klisanich.
Mr. Bubble originally hails from North Dakota; the bubble soap was launched by the Gold Seal Co.
Mr. Bubble moves to Minnesota - Minneapolis / St. Paul Business Journal:
"In a system of production, where the entire continuity of the reproduction process rests upon credit, a crisis must obviously occur a tremendous rush for means of payment when credit suddenly ceases and only cash payments have validity. At first glance, therefore, the whole crisis seems to be merely a credit and money crisis. And in fact it is only a question of the convertibility of bills of exchange into money. But the majority of these bills represent actual sales and purchases, whose extension far beyond the needs of society is, after all, the basis of the whole crisis. At the same time, an enormous quantity of these bills of exchange represents plain swindle, which now reaches the light of day and collapses; furthermore, unsuccessful speculation with the capital of other people; finally, commodity-capital which has depreciated or is completely unsaleable, or returns that can never more be realised again. The entire artificial system of forced expansion of the reproduction process cannot, of course, be remedied by having some bank, like the Bank of England, give to all the swindlers the deficient capital by means of its paper and having it buy up all the depreciated commodities at their old nominal values. Incidentally, everything here appears distorted, since in this paper world, the real price and its real basis appear nowhere, but only bullion, metal coin, notes, bills of exchange, securities. Particularly in centres where the entire money business of the country is concentrated, like London, does this distortion become apparent; the entire process becomes incomprehensible; it is less so in centres of production." Marx, Capital Vol III Ch.30
I lived through the recessions of 1974-5 and 1980-81 and I don't recall so much handwringing then about the matter. Of course we didn't have the internet to spread the gloom and the doom and excite people's sensibilities, but it seems to me now that "recession" has taken on the sense of a terrible calamity that it has not had before, at least not since the 30s. Anyone else notice the same thing?
The...system of forced expansion...cannot...be remedied by having some bank, like the Bank of England, give to all the swindlers the deficient capital by means of its paper and having it buy up all the depreciated commodities at their old nominal values.
--Marx
With MBS's being the "depreciated commodities," and the Fed being the "Bank of England," we're on the familiar ground of the nineteenth century.
Thanks, Jester
"We are all Keysenians now" R.M. Nixon. Well I'm not and I don't want no stinkin stimulus package. We just had one and it didn't work. Why should anyone believe another dose of the same medicine will achieve a different outcome?
its times like this I'm happy to be British...and living abroad.. Imagine the same proclamation from Bernanke or even worse Paulson...LOL...I tip my hat to Merv for being honest but I know he's only doing it for fear that John McFall rips him a new one at the next monetary policy committee meeting..Those canny Scots get all the good work, it must be a dream come true for McFall
Also, why do you yanks always start worrying about terrorism every few days..FFS go with the flow, no one would be mad enough to nuke the US as clearly the backlash would be nothing short of catastrophic for anyone even remotely involved. It would be playing straight into the hands of the hawks and the guys you are at "war" with ain't that stupid.
Statistically its historically more dangerous to use ladders than it is to be a victim of terrorist extremes...
Read my lips "No New Stimulus"
I lived through the recessions of 1974-5 and 1980-81 and I don't recall so much handwringing then about the matter. Of course we didn't have the internet to spread the gloom and the doom and excite people's sensibilities, but it seems to me now that "recession" has taken on the sense of a terrible calamity that it has not had before, at least not since the 30s. Anyone else notice the same thing?
Chris
I lived through previous recessions as well and remember the Nixon wage/price controls, etc. I think the current dramatics regarding recession have to do with four factors: 1) The 2001 recession was really a US event not as much a global one, so the world really hasn't seen a sizable slowdown in quite a while, 2) Here in the US the recession was anesthetized by 9/11 attacks and war-it got pushed off the front page, 3) There is a huge debt overhang involved that is truly dangerous, and 4) The media, especially cable TV news, has been completely lights on-nobody home about the economy for years, and now that it is for real, of course you've got megaphones of doom in every household all at once.
in answer to Nemo in the first post: the trees are there in Paris to make the wide boulevards seem more humanistic in keeping with the principles of Beaux Arts design...
the width of said boulevards is a security feature to prevent the return of the barricades used effectively in the Paris Commune in the 1840s, (compare Latin Qtr with rest of city), in essence, allowing the quick deployment of troops to quell an uprising... (the Grand Canal in Venice was designed for same reasons)
What is the UK going to sell to the world?
I see the Bush admin still has not given the auto companies there first 25 Billion and may not for a year. Might speed up after the election...
In Iraq if the locals can't get it together to agree to welcome our continued presence we may have to curtail operations a bit...
Meanwhile Iceland is not getting any attention, let alone love from the current admin...
This administration has to be the target of diabolical Ethiopian plot to make our governing leaders look like idiots.
it seems to me now that "recession" has taken on the sense of a terrible calamity that it has not had before, at least not since the 30s. Anyone else notice the same thing?
Because this time we're all overleveraged. A recession is the fingers squeezing the monstrous global economic zit.
We are nowhere near bottom - look at these crazy reset charts:
ALT-A: The Risk Abatement Disaster is Coming « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
they should surely hedge...and go short
)...The Terminator would
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Samsung withdraws takeover offer for Sandisk
So which country has the first major civil unrest? China, Venezuela, Pakistan, France, U.S.?
"So which country has the first major civil unrest? China, Venezuela, Pakistan, France, U.S.?"
I assume, with Pakistan on the list, that you are asking a rhetorical question.
Im going with Cambodia and Thailand for the unrest.... you gotta think outside the box.
A 'long march,' yes...
Like the financial version of Bataan.
Jas, while driving home after running errands in town today, I found myself muttering "f***ing born and bred dopes!"
Thanks a lot, now you've got me saying it.
The widespread incompetence out there in retail America is incredible.
Too much television, methinks.
So which country has the first major civil unrest?
The USA, on Election Night.
Plantagenet writes:
"GBP behaving like a basket case vs USD"
Indeed. It is one of the many currencies in which gold is breaking out to new highs.
Plantagenet, not to detract from your first point, which could be so, but AU is universally bought and sold in USD, this site, and its graphs seems to unnecessarily cloud the issue of gold movements.
"There only ever is once currency" Theodore Harold White
So which country has the first major civil unrest?
The USA, on Election Night.
I shudder to think what will happen if this election is decided very closely and there are vote-integrity questions left open. People are tense now, but combine the perception of a barely legitimate government with massive economic turmoil and you have a recipe for blood. I am sincerely worried, first at the absence of civility between the right and the left, and more alarmingly at the complete incongruity of each side's grasp of the basic facts of our world...
--
The easiest was to know that govt is mismanaging is when it is intervening non-stop!
Americans ARE screwed because they do have the worst govt that money CAN buy.
Jas
Usually when the Fed Chairman and the BofE Governor are talking recession... you better hold onto your wallet.
Typo fixed >> "There only ever is one currency" Theodore Harold White
I think they know the problem, but they do not have the guts to take the necessary steps to solve them. They still think it can be solved by doing things they are accustomed to.
They will learn the hard way..
So if my family lives in Pakistan and I'm living in America, I'm screwed either way?
Well, I still have that Canadian passport.
waits for satan
@canucklehead
"this site, and its graphs seems to unnecessarily cloud the issue of gold movements."
Oh, contraire. People in those countries buy gold in their own currencies. You can see them chasing after non-fiat storage.
The message is clear. When the Dollar's present amazing rise (not due to fundamentals) is done, and we start Ice(land) skating down the slope, there will be a similar graph versus the greenback.
The real question is- when does a religious fanatic explode a pakistani nuke in a western country.
have you noticed that almost all major islamic terrorist attacks in the last decade were planned in that country.. our ally in fighting terrorism
__
So which country has the first major civil unrest?
what crude price supresses/deters terrorist attacks - what does the price have to be for the house of saud to pay off enough mullahs to keep their people in check.
"when does a religious fanatic explode a pakistani nuke in a western country."
As soon as a religious fanatic gets one.
I have a vivid memory of a Yemeni zealot, restrained by the police, yelling "I want to annihilate the secularists!" He was practically foaming at the mouth. There are many like him.
--
The Idiots Who Rule America
By Chris Hedges
October 21, 2008
Chris Hedges: The Idiots Who Rule America -
Chris Hedges' Columns -
Truthdig
-x-x-x-x-x-x-
Crooks Rule America and Idiots Get Ruled Over!
Jas
hey ya'll, been distracted lately, not on comments.
here are some fun pics from our zombie banker horde of 400 that i eventually led to wall st. and my most favorite bull ride EVER.
Zombies Take Manhattan - Gothamist
Costume Network Gallery :: Zombiecon 2008 :: CostumeJimPics_158
"Jas, while driving home after running errands in town today, I found myself muttering "f***ing born and bred dopes!" Thanks a lot, now you've got me saying it."
unirealist,
You are on way to lose your illusions the path to wisdom.
Jas
geez
Jas o' great cult leader
"You are on way to lose your illusions the path to wisdom."
King Henry: Thomas, why do you always shatter my illusions?
Thomas Becket: Because, sire, a king should have none.
Hmm I fear "born and bred dopes" would be one of the nicer monikers I would use for my fellow commuters...
I finally heard enough election ads today and Obama lost my vote. I have decided to write in Ron Paul.
EvilHenryPaulson,
Mark my Words!
Every canadian bank will have to be recapitalized before this crisis is over. Canucks are delusional if they think their banks are better run or their economy is more stable (resource + US owned manufacturing based). Their biggest client is the USA(about 80% direct) and every asian country buys resources from canada to make stuff for the US. This is not going to end well..
Have you considered that I might have lived in Canada for many years? So the answer to your question is - of the hundreds of people who moved here after ww2 (especially after the 60s)- I have not met one (non-canuck)person who has lived in canada for over an year and thinks canucks are not delusional. That is quite an achievement!
Given that almost everyone who moved to canada before WW2 was not wanted in their own country- this is hard to explain.
They range from well educated brits, US citizens, east-europeans, russians, chinese, taiwanese, indians, south-americans and the list goes on and on..
To have a feeling of accomplishment that is not delusional, one must have some real accomplishments. The book of canadian accomplishments worthy of note is rather small- if it exists.
Of course between the media, textbooks and public discourse, canucks believe in that c**p more that north koreans believe in Kim Jung.
Now go back to raping haitians and drug-running in cyprus (canuck "peace keepers").
"King Henry"
That's King Henry II, of course, the first Plantagenet, but not the best!
Ministry of Truth;
"I finally heard enough election ads today and Obama lost my vote. I have decided to write in Ron Paul."
What took you so long?
MoT,
"I finally heard enough election ads today and Obama lost my vote. I have decided to write in Ron Paul."
Fer Chrissakes. They're tracking IP addy's. I support all our great leaders Barrack and InSane.
Sheesh dude, you're gonna get yourself Gitmo'd.
Nostrovia,
--
Thanks, Plantagenet.
Cheers,
Jas
lucifer writes:
The real question is- when does a religious fanatic explode a pakistani nuke in a western country.
have you noticed that almost all major islamic terrorist attacks in the last decade were planned in that country.. our ally in fighting terrorism
The US taught the Paks and Afghans the art of terrorism in the 1980's as they fought the "Evil Empire"
bailout unconstitutional?
Nemo writes:
What's the over/under for when the Fed Funds target goes below 0.25? And remind me what the current target is, again?
I don't think they can cut past 75bp without restructuring their new interest payments on reserves program.
Reserves get eff FF - 25bp
Extra deposits get eff FF - 75bp
It's been referred to as a stealth 25bp cut in itself. I think 1 thing preventing them from lowering too much is that they are having trouble keeping it steady with most of their own reserves held outside of the treasuries they need for reverse-repos.
So long as they have to get more treasuries issued, they are happier to distribute them via their new facilities (see the newest, MMIFF)
Jas Jain writes:
The Idiots Who Rule America
By Chris Hedges
October 21, 2008
Truthdig - Reports
Read anything written by Chris Hedges. He knows only the truth and isn't afraid to say it or write it
--
"Jas o' great cult leader"
Anonymous,
Au contraire, I am the Cult Buster -- the Cult of Democracy and the Cult of Manipulated "Free" Markets, i.e., the Cult of Americanism.
Jas
Hi people, do not repost my stuff.. OK!! I do not repost my own stuff..
My dad said:lucifer writes:
Hi people, do not repost my stuff.. OK!! I do not repost my own stuff..
lucifer
Blowback..
The US taught the Paks and Afghans the art of terrorism in the 1980's as they fought the "Evil Empire"
On the edge | 10.21.08 - 9:36 pm | #
serf Alan greenspend - thanx Cole, really helpful right now.
More broadly, how does the King statement get managed in the US? I mean they've perfected the 19th C Begehot bailout, but are not saying the US is wrong, but what happens when Mr Market fills in the blanks?
Still looks like coordination has some problems.
CC
Nothing like a little financial
"White Squall" momment...
A little late to yell out
" 1 2 3 wake up"...
Age of Innocence?! Age of INNOCENCE??? What utter tripe.
lucifer writes:
Blowback..
The US taught the Paks and Afghans the art of terrorism in the 1980's as they fought the "Evil Empire"
On the edge
We haven't seen blowback yet. 100,000's of Iraqi men, women and children will gladly give their lives to cause the US harm
From a previous thread but this just enrages me,
NationalCity just paid out $4.5b in preferred dividends to their savior, Corsair Capital, even though NatCity is technically insolvent. So I guess they are going to be an instant beneficiary of all the government largesse:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Pretty amazing that we are bailing out hedge funds for their poor investment decisions. If this is capitalism, I want out.
I know..
We haven't seen blowback yet. 100,000's of Iraqi men, women and children will gladly give their lives to cause the US harm
On the edge | 10.21.08 - 9:43 pm | #
We haven't seen blowback yet. 100,000's of Iraqi men, women and children will gladly give their lives to cause the US harm
On the edge | 10.21.08 - 9:43 pm | #
Wow, good thing we are reducing our military. Perfect timing.
lucifer,
"Hi people, do not repost my stuff.. OK!! I do not repost my own stuff.."
Chill dude. Here's a lil' Black Sabbath to calm the nerves.
NIB
YouTube -
Nostrovia,
Yeah especially when you put the nut in in late 99/2000.
I did that too - only it was my whopping (not) IRA.
Y2K jitters.
A 300-400% return on investment over 8 yrs. is not shabby. Better than the housing market even.
What if we were occupied? Who wouldn't fight? And what if we were out-manned and out-gunned? What would are tactics be?
Citizen Clyde,
"Pretty amazing that we are bailing out hedge funds for their poor investment decisions. If this is capitalism, I want out."
It is not. It is not even close.
Nostrovia,
Outsider,
Nostrovia,
Anonymous writes:
We haven't seen blowback yet. 100,000's of Iraqi men, women and children will gladly give their lives to cause the US harm
On the edge | 10.21.08 - 9:43 pm | #
Wow, good thing we are reducing our military. Perfect timing.
Stealth bombers, Jets and tanks are useless in the 4th generation of warfare. Soft power and competent justice systems aren't
But the wizards in the pentagon and state department choose to think otherwise..
alba writes:
What if we were occupied? Who wouldn't fight? And what if we were out-manned and out-gunned? What would are tactics be
I saw the King of England and thought King? Then I remembered who the Queen of England is: Elton John.
I say Saudi Arabia for the civilian unrest that changes everything.
On the edge,
They are discovering that as we speak, but old habits die hard.
Nemo writes:
I like "The Age of Innocence" as the name for 2003-2008.
But wait a minute... There's not an innocent person in the whole story...
Was talking to a person heavily invested in real estate today who maintained that there was nothing wrong with the financial system and that the panic is nothing but media hype.
(Of course I realize you were referencing the obvious corruption in all this.)
Britain is on the brink of recession and faces an extended and painful economic downturn
a euphemism for what will be
Maybe the End of Innocence? What? Is that Don Henley in my head?
I'm not really a stock guy (no huevos) but I was wondering anyone has been able to make money using the American Crash model on English or EU stocks? It seems to be roughly the same pattern with a phase sift of say 1 year (duration guess).
What say ye?
EvilHenryPaulson writes (In prior thread):
" ******
I've mused long and hard about alternative strategies ....
I don't like the idea of investing in gold, it is illogically overvalued in many ways. However faced with the alternatives, and with the knowledge that gold has operated as a trusted currency for millenia then it does not seem so crazy any more. I still prefer food and food inputs over gold. Oil, natural gas (if LNG ever takes off), copper, iron ore, are also worthwhile and without the crazies that gravitate towards gold."
Thank you for your statements. I have been thinking about alternatives other than gold. Feels like we're being squeezed down unattractive paths with ever greater risk. Old timers laugh about gold and point to the lack of any meaningful long term (20+ years) returns. Whatever I invest in I want to be paid, and not simpy bet on an upside which more often than not is just an exercise in market timing.
Bond Girl;
"Was talking to a person heavily invested in real estate today who maintained that there was nothing wrong with the financial system and that the panic is nothing but media hype."
Maybe it was the Age of Delusion. Maybe it still is in some quarters...
I find that the best time to work is in the morning, when it's cool, after a good night's sleep by the fire.
The Brits have long been known for their perspicacity with euphemisms.
Why a long march? Why can't the Brits just meander? Or maybe lolly gag, then stroll?
alba,
"What if we were occupied?"
YouTube
- heaven on their minds
Prefer the Ian Gilllan show but there ya go.
Nostrovia,
Bond Girl,
I was wondering what type of debt you specialized in? As we discussed earlier I'm reading bond books (FF et. al.) and didnt know how much of it was academic and how much was a must know.
Durations, convexities, interest rate swaps, IOs, POs?
If you have any suggestions its greatly appreciated.
Thanks,
~
ova writes:
Why a long march? Why can't the Brits just meander? Or maybe lolly gag, then stroll?
That wouldn't be proper. They are British
What is the 2 year swap and why is it so important to watch these days?
I work with municipal debt.
Of all sources, "Bearons" is now saying that we've seen the worst and will be coming out of the recession Q1 next year. See the featured video with Clare McKeen on the home page. Alan Ableson is even slightly optimistic (for him), quoting Buffett in his column. But he ends by saying:
"As to his [Buffet's] allusion to robins in the spring -- a nice play on it's the early bird that catches the worm -- as someone has noted, it's the second mouse that gets the cheese."
Anonymous:
ond guy writes:
The T-Bill rates will probably take time to settle down. This means that the TED spread will probably be volatile for awhile.
I'd argue that a better indicator will be the 2-year swap spread (spread between 2-year swap rate and 2-year Treasury). If that can come down to 50 bps or so (from over 150), that would mean that the markets would be discounting spread normalization over the coming years.</i>
Opps
"bond guy writes"
Calculated Risk: Credit Crisis: Watching for Signs of Progress
"Why can't the Brits just meander? Or maybe lolly gag, then stroll?"
I assure you, they will toddle.
Fair Economist,(previous thread)
If they cut the entitlement programs they will have more than enough for the military budget.
IMF finishes audits of the US in 2009. I guarantee austerity programs including the end of the safety net entitlement programs will be decreed. The US will "have to" comply thus giving the politicians a way out when they do the unthinkable. Of course the devaluation of the dollar and inflation will occur to show the citizens this is necessary.
Military spending will continue unabated. Our oil companies and other multinationals still require their services. Possible social unrest will require some units to be brought back home. Perhaps instead of military spending for the Pentagon we'll see much more spending for Blackwater and their like.
Military spending IS the last industry we have in America. Look for increased spending and more war. Let's hope they don't escalate the war they've been fighting against the poor and disenfranchised of our country.
The IMF's board of directors has ruled that a so-called Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) is to be carried out in the United States.
Comrade Misean is Dope, are they jihadis singing about the virgins?
BG, cool. Can I ask in what part of the many transactions?
Comrade Vistulian
Glad to offer it. If you want an idea for your own investigations, I suggest drawing up a list of maybe 5 countries that you expect to lead the world out of recession or at least exhibit the strongest growth until things recover. Then look up what types of energy and materials they import.
So if you picked China you would want to look at iron ore but not tungste
I personally do not think that swap spreads are meaningful now - or perhaps I should say they are as meaningful as any other indicator in such rife government intervention.
Blogger Accrued Interest explains this pretty well, I think
Accrued Interest
alba,
"Comrade Misean is Dope, are they jihadis singing about the virgins?"
Dude, Jesus Christ Super Star.
I played both Judas And JC. Years ago.
Nostrovia,
Bond Girl,
I guess good mines think alike (a more pleasant solution than everyone stealing my ideas)
The liquidty/risk premia are swamping all previous meaningful metrics.
Anonymous writes:
What is the 2 year swap and why is it so important to watch these days?
Anonymous
2 yr swap now at 2.614%
its important in part becuse so much debt gets swapped from fixed to foating - esp debt issued by financial firms.
a bank sells fixed rate bonds and pays fixed on a swap. the fixed bond coupon cancels out the fixed swap coupon. they receive floating libor and fund themselves at libor. the libor spread is the cost of their funding. very wide asset swap spreads result in higher borrowing costs.