DOT: U.S. Vehicles Miles Driven Off Sharply in August
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 10/24/2008 - 7:54am (271 comments)
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Maybe people just prefer trains.
"I've been burned by you train people before."
Not only for gas, but for cars! Fewer miles = less wear/less need for cars on margin.
9 handle on yearly auto sales here we come.
I'm doing my part to drive less - but it isn't the gas (or rather diesel) prices... its the LODGING costs - up something like 50% over the last two years. Get those 'deflating' a bit and I'll drive more. Until then more intertubes & phones.
Dryfly - how long before changes in exchange rates start showing up in your world?
I think everyone on wall st is waiting for the x-mas miracle to save their ass.
In case anyone is interested, here is an updated graph of the amount of Non-Borrowed reserves from the Federal Reserve Board H.3 release:
Non-Borrowed Reserves
The H3 release is here
and the data is from Table 3.
Take note, the September 2008 level is -$187 billion.. AND the projected October 2008 level is currently -$360 billion..
Remember back in Jan 2008 when it was around -$10 billion.. and had just shifted.. and people didn't know what to make of it... What do you make of it now?
way ot, but I can't let go of the earlier post. Here was more of the exchange:
"Do you want it to be cloudy for the rest of your life?" the co-anchor [erin] asked, sending Haines into a tizzy.
"That is such horsehockey I can't believe it," he said. "I deal in reality. I'm not talking about what I want; I'm talking about what's going on. If you can't stand the truth, then get out of the kitchen, but don't expect me to paint this thing with a rosy color."
October 24, 2008 Archive | News Cut | Minnesota Public Radio
That Ned Reilly is a broken record, "Buy NOW, BUY NOWWWWW!!!"
Who actually lets him use their money, I wonder ?
If an OPEC nation is smart, it will push production capacity to peak as soon as possible, to take advantage of prices before they collapse completely. It will be interesting to see if the 'production cuts' actually occur.
buy order's outpacing sell order's...
according to MS report....
if we ignore the sell orders....well
It will be interesting to see if the 'production cuts' actually occur.
Might be different this time around; OPEC never had Russia looking over its shoulders.
Priceless... the expression on the face of that wench when she got told to get out of the kitchen... the moment when her princessy composure cracked and betrayed confusion and hurt... that made my morning. It's that kind of a day.
Oil cost 0.1 ounce of gold in '03. Today it cost 0.09 ounce of gold.
The whole spectacle was a global monetary illusion. We need a gold standard or we will one day ruin the planet.
Short the market. Buy some gold.
Of course the increase to $150 and the current decrease can not be explained by supply and demand. The increase was mostly speculation, now that bubble and all other bubbles (Real Estate, other commodities like gold and metals, emerging markets equities etc.) are deflating.
I have 1 question, can someone explain me why the US Equities are +20% YTD compared to EU equities although the situation in US is (going to be) WAY worse than in Europe?
Didn't have a car for three months, then bought a sealed bid Tax Commission
seizure 9/2 and have driven around 1000 miles. Demand dstruction rules...
"dryfly writes:
I'm doing my part to drive less - but it isn't the gas (or rather diesel) prices... its the LODGING costs - up something like 50% over the last two years. Get those 'deflating' a bit and I'll drive more. Until then more intertubes & phones."
For recreational travel, we know a couple who gave up on hotels and got into the house swap thing to save cash. Another friend of ours who likes to travel but needs to cut costs, is actually fixing up his house just so he can do house swaps, too.
Not that you could do that... but talk about demand destruction for lodging.
Alert GS down
99.47 -9.11 (-8.39%)
Good news to Al Gore, and tree huggers.
Too bad India and China will both surpass our energy usage in 10 years.
Contrary to what most people "believe", the US is the most efficient, lowest polluting energy user in the world.
Check out China sometime if you want to see some pollution. They nicely hid the problem during the Olympics.
Auto composition of those miles matters greatly as this says nothing about the type of miles- some cars use much more fuel than others.
a -5.6% reduction al coming from SUVs & large trucks wold have a much larger impact on gas usage than a 5.6% reduction in hybrid usage.
GS landslide...whoo hoo! It's about time. The United States of Goldman Sachs is GOING DOWN!
So it's only good news for Al Gore? Not for people with children who have to deal with a future of dwindling oil reserves?
"There are lies, damn lies, and statistics" - Benjamin Disraeli
I was driving down I-95 from New York to North Carolina this past weekend there was noticeably less congestion around the beltway.
911 is a great sales tool, is'nt it
That explains why I didn't have to wait the usual 4 or 5 days to get my car into the dealer for service. They just aren't busy.
SpeciousRiches
Specious Riches
--
Good morning.
How are things in the dualGangistan and D0leland?
jas
GS: some mid-level exec that had exercised his options got a margin call and he has to sell. nothing happening here. just move along. ignore that blood on the street.
hell, its still near $100.
GS owns the universe!
"Do you want it to be cloudy for the rest of your life?" the co-anchor [erin] asked, sending Haines into a tizzy.
"That is such horsehockey I can't believe it," he said. "I deal in reality. I'm not talking about what I want; I'm talking about what's going on. If you can't stand the truth, then get out of the kitchen, but don't expect me to paint this thing with a rosy color."
Sorta like this youtube clip:
YouTube - A Few Good Man "You Can't Handle the Truth"
Looks like we've driven off a cliff.
Nostrovia,
Here is the full clip of Mark Haynes going nuts on Erin Burnett:
Video - CNBC.com
Absolutely. We drove off the cliff and its going to be pernicious from now on.
dryfly --
Yeah, how is it I can fly to a major city and rent a car for $25/day, but I can't find a hotel room for less than $200?
Seems like something does not add up there.
I wonder if there is a viable business model in renting out just a bathroom. Charge by the hour, keep it clean, advertise it as a place to shower, change, take a dump.
Then I could just sleep in my rental car.
Karelian. See the cost of oil in gold. It was an illusion. We almost wiped out 1/10 of the globe's people in March with inflation in money and food prices.
This is good news.
US and A has quickly learned how to consolidate trips, carpooling, less "run to the mall," and more planning ahead. Shortening of commute time, increased quality of life. Not so hard when you have to.
And OPEC can eat a very big bag of shit. The price of oil is very near to below production cost at this point. Can you hear it? That's the welcome sound of struggling over in Russia, Venezuela and the middle east oil producers. And right at the time when U.S. foreign aid dollars are more scarce than a well-run bank. Good luck with your own problems, boys.
OT, but funny (and true).
from Long Or Short Capital:
All Your Crash is Belong to US
Dear RoW,
Hey there, bro. We see that you have been having a pretty difficult time of late over there in your unspecified foreign countries. We feel your pain.
But bro, we dont feel bad about your pain. See all these years, you have been telling US how better you are than US. How you are more fair. How you have universal medicine, or dont believe in playing spin the bottle with the Middle East and being forced to spend 7 years in heaven with Iraq in the closet, or arent populated with rednecks, or graduate more science PhDs or whatever. How you are cultured and not obese. How you were smarter than US, how your way was way better. Well amigo, what is the haps now?
Yeah the US has been going down. Shits true, cant deny that. We have had our financial foibles, our credit crises and real estate bubbles. Our stock market has been getting crushed and many of our leading firms no longer even exist. But you, you RoW, your stock markets have been getting even MORE crushed. Your banks are in even MORE precarious positions than ours. Your culture and economy and currency and utopian ideals are all showing cracks and are ready to break. You dont know what to do and to be honest bro, youre probably screwed.
And this is by design. Our forefathers claimed America by giving those Indian bros pox infested blankets. And we are claiming the RoW by doling out our MBS, our structured products, our overpriced assets and a little friend called contagion. FYI pox be in all that crap.
When the US wins, we win. When the US loses, we still win relative to the RoW, taking you down more than US. This is why we are the hegemon, bro.
Sincerely,
US
I made a point of driving less when fuel prices were high . Now I realize how much I don't like driving ( traffic stress )so I will continue to drive as little as possible .
Just got back into small positions in SDS and QID at 108.4 and 81.6 respectively. Wish me luck, this market is clearly insane.
9 handle on yearly auto sales here we come.
safe_as_apartments | 10.24.08 - 12:17 pm | #
Very possible.
A few factors affecting car build:
1) affordability (function of incomes, car prices, interest rates & availability of credit) - all pointing to lower builds.
2) need (age of 'rolling stock' out there, used inventory & need to commute) - also all pointing down.
The only semi-bullish factor for an increased 'build' are all the leases expiring and the inability of J6P to get a new lease - some will buy (though much cheaper cars - trade in big SUV and buy econobox - still counts as a build).
But a lot of this lease end driven 'bullishness' will result in increased used car sales & not new build... but until that 'hidden rolling stock' of lease returns is consumed they won't need to build a lot more. That's step one.
It will be years before the build shoots up again.
:::
I was at a med device trade show all week - you would not believe the number of auto suppliers showing up trying to scrounge up some bio-med business. It was sad - I've been involved with some of those in the past - they are capable on first glance of doing the work but most don't have a real chance of making the change (profitably) - it's completely different business and they aren't 'facilitated' for it.
I tell them they are wasting their time - they need to focus even harder on their current core business & make sure their competitors fail, not them... its too late to chase some other rainbow when your core biz is crashing... you do that in the boom (when profits are fat & they can afford the change over)... doing it now is a fools errand. I told a few of them that and saw 'sad faces'... they were grunt managers who were marching on orders from above... they knew I was right. Want a resume?
Its tough in automotive.
Just reported on Reuter's...US Treasury exploring ways to aid Insurance Companies under The Financial Rescue Law.
It's a perfect time to buy a new car, so I did on Tuesday.
Did the Carsdirect.com thing, had multiple dealers begging for my business. I walked in, met with the Fleet folks, said here is what I will pay for your car, here is why I want for my trade, he is the financing I want.
No arguments, no haggling, left with a new car in less than 2 hours.
Seriously great time to buy a car, and GOLD COINZ!
Builder Bob you have bigger ball than me. The way things are going I do not trust that the ETFs will continue to work.
Wow. You know it's a new thread if no comment for 30 sec.
MarketWatch tempting the gods: "Could Have Been Worse".
Could the gold pivot already be here???
Yeah, how is it I can fly to a major city and rent a car for $25/day, but I can't find a hotel room for less than $200?
Seems like something does not add up there.
Hell - they are over $100 a night in a lot of flyover!!! FLYOVER!!!
Two years ago I used to pay $60 for a decent room (not a Motel 6 or 'Ma-n-Pa' roach hotel)... now they are consistently $95 to $125 a night... throw in 10-15% taxes and its a 'C Note Plus' every time.
Something seriously doesn't add up.
Chrysler to cut 25 percent of salaried work force
DETROIT Chrysler LLC, whose owner has been in talks to sell the automaker to General Motors Corp., said Friday it will cut 25 percent of its salaried work force starting next month and warned that it will make more restructuring announcements soon.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Builder Bob you have bigger ball than me. The way things are going I do not trust that the ETFs will continue to work.
No, I just mean it when I say small positions. I am still mostly in cash with a small gold hedge as well.
based on what I have read the hotel industry has been staying afloat by charging more for fewer occupied rooms. Its a good short term fix.
Too bad they are horribly overbuilt and people aren't willing to pay or I should say, can't afford to pay.
Bloomberg just did a PNC update. Abandoned their previous discussion of the tax writeoff.
Fist fight on CNBC in 3....2...
Traveling is so last year. Of course, when hotel's stop having overnight business travelers, the price has to fall.
Nostrovia,
If you're curious about where Treasury yields and interest rates are going to be a few years from now check out PrudentBear
punditry writes:
Fist fight on CNBC in 3....2...
Summary?
today is not the day
I wonder if there is a viable business model in renting out just a bathroom. Charge by the hour, keep it clean, advertise it as a place to shower, change, take a dump.
Then I could just sleep in my rental car.
Nemo | Homepage | 10.24.08 - 12:35 pm | #
Look up truck stops - seriously. About $10 to shower. I've done it when racing to get to an emergency (plant down in rural America - drive through the night - short nap in the car then freshen up at the truck stop before going into the plant). I don't advise doing it a lot - it gets real old real fast.
And 'yes' - I've been forced to become a master of 'Guerrilla Operations Management' - folks on a corporate expense account have no idea how far down 'down' really is... think about it before you all chase the 'joys & rewards' of self-employment. Just a heads up as this recession hardens...
"Seriously great time to buy a car, and GOLD COINZ!"
Coinz! | 10.24.08 - 12:38 pm | #
Yep. When I heard what one of the guys I work with just paid for an 05 F350 Crew Cab with every freakin option and only 16k miles,the first thing I said was "Christ,did ya use a gun?". Bought private party. Lets say the guy lost almost 900/mo just in depreciation...
Chris
Hey guys, just skimmed this morning's comments
Anonymouse: This is the end of the world, you called it?
I told you so
re: US DOT, Traffic Volume Trends
What is the release schedule. It appears they released the Aug data on Oct 24, but that is a 7 week lag so I'm not sure.
Sept & Oct TVT data should show at least YoY flat. Cheapest prices since 2004, but offset by a slower economy including freight traffic
holy f'in volatility Batman......
OK, the downward slide is starting to gather momentum.
Its just a matter of time we break below 8K
Should be fun at CNBC..
Timber! Look out below!
ades: what?
OT: Albersons has "Pizza Fridays". I wonder if they are on to the FDIC.
"Traveling is so last year. Of course, when hotel's stop having overnight business travelers, the price has to fall."
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope | 10.24.08
100% frozen travel at this company...
Chris
This animal is like a chicken with its head cut off.... totally random movements....
DK: "Contrary to what most people "believe", the US is the most efficient, lowest polluting energy user in the world."
Would you care to show some facts to strengthen that interesting statement.
@nades well, the chicken is dead, that seems pretty clear.
I hope things get bad enough to the point where Erin poses for playboy or does porn in order to eat. Damn good looking woman there.
I've been forced to become a master of 'Guerrilla Operations Management' - folks on a corporate expense account have no idea how far down 'down' really is
On the occasion I teach LSAT on location, I get a $50 per diem; for the past several months, I've been doing my grocery shopping on location...
"Contrary to what most people "believe", the US is the most efficient, lowest polluting energy user in the world."
Yes, this is a joke. The US has by far the highest per capita energy use in the world.
"Chrysler to cut 25 percent of white-collar jobs"
This is just ahead of the sale to lighten the load. Terrible news for the US economy. Those are not WalMart greeter positions.
Expired
Thanks to Basel Too for that awesome post of the CNBC video. =)
JS remember we produce the most too.... So that argument isnt a slam dunk....
To whomever was arguing that Palo Alto, Los Gatos and other areas are "fortress" and will hold up well:
At the end of September everything was peachy at the biotech startup my wife is at. 3 weeks later an emergency 30% RIF.
In the words of the CFO he's never seen things get this bad this fast in all his years in the business. And I presume that would include the VC blowup during the 2000/2001 dotcom bust.
My company has also just in the last week frozen all hiring and is reworking all 2009 projects.
And check out the CDS rates on Russian government debt today. Hint, they're close to Iceland pre blowup.
Keep on dreaming that prime BA real-estate isn't going down.
Yesterday, we had the rascists visit. Today the protectionists visit. This is too predictable.
There is a lot of fat to be cut out of business travel. In my experience, much of it was unnecessary. Let's have 5 people fly across the country for a two hour meeting. And lets book those flights 3 days in advance. And lets to this on a regular basis. I've sat in some very expensive meetings that could've been conference calls.
And all those extended stay hotels? Could be trouble.
Capitulation,
I read that 25,000 had been let go from the finance industry.... the multiplier effect will be huge...
"When the US loses, we still win relative to the RoW, taking you down more than US. This is why we are the hegemon, bro."
nullpointer,
You just had a segmentation fault and u r gonna dump a core.
leFou writes:
DK: "Contrary to what most people "believe", the US is the most efficient, lowest polluting energy user in the world."
Would you care to show some facts to strengthen that interesting statement.
I can guarantee that Japan has the highest GDP/barrel of oil in the world.
GDP/ energy produced is more nebulous do to things like exports of hydroelectricity or using excess electricity on an aluminum smelter which is incredibly energy intensive.
Mining is very energy intensive, but most of that product is exported and because someone has to pay the price for it to be produced, that energy consumption should be divided on a pro-rated basis to the final importers.
The best way is to do it industry by industry. You also can't ignore tacking on the personal energy consumption of workers directly related to city planning of suburbs/exurbs and highways
The US has by far the highest per capita energy use in the world.
JS | 10.24.08 - 12:58
Nope we have you beat. When you've got it, flaunt it.
ullpointer,
Totally outstanding, and dead on.
I learned this the other day. I thought it was interesting. The biggest power consumer in San Diego is...
Cement Plants....
What about Venezuela? Chavez has been spending like a drunken sailor. When his money runs out, will his peeps be happy? Could a national strike or civil unrest cut off supply to any extent? I see problems down there, but don't know enough, hence I'm asking for input.
Russian stock market to be closed till further notice....
Don't have a link yet...Sent by a friend over email...Will be asking him for a link...
Nope we have you beat.
It's all that damn popcorn.
Thanks Anonymous for the link to Prudent Bear "Real Interest Rates", but can I trust anything in an article that states "the real rate has increased from 5% to 22%, or 14 percentage points"?
Mathematically challenged ??
Yes, nationalism is a warm place in a cold climate.
THAT'S IT FOR THE ROLLOVER.... IT'S ALL UPHILL NOW BAYBEEEE!!!!!!!!
Go Erin Go!
Remember the good old days? You know, when seeing the markets drop 4% would at least give reason to pause?
Now it's just like, Oh, fuck only down 4% today? Phew!
Ah, simpler times. We were happy then.
Russian stock market shut down early:
http://www.pr-inside.com/russia-s-stock-exchanges-sink-shut-down-r879357.htm
It's all good. When you spend more on energy, it raises GDP. This is goal of all US economic policy, no?
REIT's cutting divvies
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- More real-estate investment trusts are expected to make their dividends sacrificial lambs as a broader market meltdown drains liquidity and hinders debt refinancing.
LaSalle Hotel Properties (LHO:10.76, -0.59, -5.2%) late Wednesday said it cut its annual dividend by 51% to provide $100 million in liquidity over the next 26 months. The hotel REIT, which plunged 64% year-to-date, is seen on the vanguard of similar moves as more companies seek ways to drum up cash.
"In the past, you used to see dividend (cuts) as a necessity for those companies not able to pay their dividend. This is a choice by LaSalle to retain more capital," said Paul Adornato, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets.
12th,
I travel because I can't fix shite remotely. Only real reason.
I can talk anywhere.
Nostrovia,
Re: eric the spammer -- dropped a complaint to godaddy and also had a talk with some well-connected friends.
12th Percentile writes:
There is a lot of fat to be cut out of business travel. In my experience, much of it was unnecessary. Let's have 5 people fly across the country for a two hour meeting. And lets book those flights 3 days in advance. And lets to this on a regular basis. I've sat in some very expensive meetings that could've been conference calls.
And all those extended stay hotels? Could be trouble.
12th Percentile | 10.24.08 - 1:01 pm | #
Extended Stays should do better than the mid-levels like Hampton Inn... If I were running a marketing operation for a company (say their sales mgr) and wanted to keep my sales force 'in-house' as opposed to 'dispersed' (using home offices living in the region)... then when in the territory I'd pressure them to use the extended stays & 'cook & eat in' unless they have client dinners. That would be the one 'splurge'... clients/customers.
Have them travel out to a region w/ lots of calls planned & stay in one centrally located extended stay hotel and WORK the whole region via econobox rental for a whole week (M-F with nights out being M-Th - fly in early Monday, fly out late Friday)... cover a 200-250 mile radius. Could easily keep the total per diem to under $200/day less air flight into the region.
It would be real tough but hell - that's what 'recession biz development' is all about. Want easy? The invent a wayback and work dot.com circa 1998...
This just popped up on the Radar Screen - Looks like some of the Dem's want to take advantage of the pain in the market. Social Security Part 2.
House Democrats contemplate abolishing 401(k) tax breaks
Mandatory contributions from workers considered
By Sara Hansard October 12, 2008, 6:01 AM EST Post a Comment Recommend (118)
House Democrats contemplate abolishing 401(k) tax breaks - Investment News
Re: eric the spammer -- dropped a complaint to godaddy and also had a talk with some well-connected friends.
Byzantine_Ruins
Thanks, that guy sucked!
OT (again). This idea of cheerleading high GDP growth is absolute madness. Why should Joe Sixpack care about GDP growth? Especially if it was based on FED pumping money to the rich banks and corporations. And fake inflation statistics from gov't.
dry-
I hear you on that..consolidation is always good when you have to go on site visits. The problem I see with people and business travel is that far too many of them think it's a perk.
I've worked at places where the entire company thought it was a good thing to give up your sunday, travel all week an not return until Sat. afternoon. Only to repeat the process for the next four weeks. And they liked it!!
Good riddance to the Biz travelers....at least I can go through the airports at decent times now and not have to sit next to some sales "douche" talking shop with his buddies while watching X-rated movies (seen it MANY times).
Ciao
MS
Need some advice. I have a couple of large checks to cash today, but don't want to deposit or take cash unless it is necessary.
Would getting a cashiers check or money order be an ok thing to do?
No glod comments please:)
OT on the road to nowhere:
A $17 Trillion National Debt by 2009. What this mess Really Means?
In the last 16 days the national debt grew by $300 billion. At this pace, the government will owe $17 trillion by this time next year>
A $17 Trillion National Debt by 2009. What this mess Really Means?
Nothing wrong with Cash.....
Why the aversion to having it?
Ciao
MS
Dryfly - I thought you visited a lot of companies/factories that were doing well with exporting?
I lived the good corporate life for a few years. Unlimited budget for hotels and meals and drinks.
Then i started my own business. While staying in a $39/night room near where I was doing a production run in Pittsburg I found out you get what you pay for and you didn't pay for soundproof walls or clean rooms.
I've had good luck when doing consulting a few years ago with Priceline. Nice hotels at half the price. As this all plays out I bet you'll be able to get some real deals on priceline. I appraised a hotel once 20 years ago. There is a very low number where it makes sense to rent the room instead of leaving it empty for the night.
eric the spammer is a man with a message. I too sent a message to go daddy.
dryfly,
Extended Stay Hotels ain't luxurious, but they work.
I actually prefer them. Low cost, and I'll have a cold beer waiting for me when I get done troubleshooting at 12am.
Nostrovia,
In the movies, the guy warning about the invading aliens is usually one of them.
How do we know that Jas is human?
25% of salaried folks...gunna hurt...thats one in four...walk down the halls and eeny, meeny, miny, your out here
Actually I dont recall ever such action for a breathing company. It will be highly disruptive unless they are going to wind it up or parcel it off.
Russia suspended trading on its stock market until at least Tuesday after the market lost more than 13 percent of its value on Friday, hitting its lowest levels since late 2004.
The Investing News Source for Financial Advisers - Investment News 310139971
dd | 10.24.08 - 1:15 pm | #
What?????
This is the kind of crap we will get with Obama and a Dem majority in Congress.
I know there are a bunch of Dems here. Do you really want this???
No Politics please
House Democrats contemplate abolishing 401(k) tax breaks
Mandatory contributions from workers considered
Bloody hech punish savers, kill em off, nix 'em as being unamerican
nova writes:
No Politics please
here here.....
Who are the choices for BFF?
simple.....don't have a 401k.
Ciao
MS
Sign of the times? Safeway stores are doing "$5 Friday". Some weeks it's a large pizza, some weeks it's BBQed chicken, couple of weeks ago it was a fully cooked turkey breast. Per this week's ad they've added $5 Monday!
OT: Albersons has "Pizza Fridays". I wonder if they are on to the FDIC.
Ministry of Truth
State-owned Sberbank, Russia's biggest bank, lost 20.5 percent and state-controlled gas giant Gazprom fell 16.5 percent. Oil company Lukoil lost 14.2 percent.
The other exchange, the RTS, was down more than 10 percent to 571.5 points in early afternoon.
The dollar-denominated RTS is down 77 percent from its May peak, while MICEX is off almost 74 percent. Tumbling oil prices and mounting economic woes in the West triggered huge falls in September and October.
Оценочная водка будет увеличиваться, так ура!
Peter Schiff on Cnn - "McCain has about as much chance of winning this thing as I do"
I have a 300.75K
(25% decline)
Whatev, you gotta remember that the path from proposal to law is a mighty long one... something as controversial as that proposal is probably going to get ignored in favor of all the other, more pressing issues we'll have soon.
this market is rigged...
Nothing wrong with Cash.....
Why the aversion to having it?
Ciao
MS
MS | 10.24.08 - 1:21 pm | #
No real aversion, but I will have to "order" it and in the meantime I want to have it in the most "fluid" instrument.
No real aversion, but I will have to "order" it and in the meantime I want to have it in the most "fluid" instrument.
Whatev
Liquid gold?
MS writes:
simple.....don't have a 401k.
Call it a 201k and give it to the Social Security Admin.
I hear you on that..consolidation is always good when you have to go on site visits. The problem I see with people and business travel is that far too many of them think it's a perk.
The way you get buy in is tie compensation (like bonus or net-commission) to how cost effective they are 'out in the territory'... if they realized that those travel 'perks' were at least in part coming out of their potential earnings - they'd consume those resources differently. Very differently.
As this recession hardens - we'll see that - but not until. Managers lack imagination...
:::
As for travel - you really can't experience a 'factory floor' via conference call. And you frequently can't truly service a mfgr unless you fully understand their operations. Decision makers have to occasionally walk the floor w/ their customers.
The thing is you can do an occasional trip or two THEN do a bunch of conferences in between... its finding the proper balance that makes it work. We'll go from way too much travel to way too little travel - that's the way it always goes.
something as controversial as that proposal is probably going to get ignored in favor of all the other, more pressing issues we'll have soon.
What could be more pressing than paying for all of this sh#t buy forcing people to buy treasuries? Except maybe locking up their assets in country - that's going to start looking pressing before long.
The CME raised margins on the 30-yr futures yesterday, not a bad idea in light of recent swings.
ades writes:
Thanks, that guy sucked!
From your collective mouths to my ears. From my mouth to jie jie's ears. Thus is the appointed time for sowing and reaping in part divined. Jie jie gotta keep her almanac accurate.
We shall see if the collective efforts of the mandarinate here bear fruit or if we are to endure additional offers for fake stubs.
Nades--I said no glod remarks:)
"Funds are pouring out of emerging markets," said Linus Yip, a strategist at First Shanghai Securities in Hong Kong. "A lot of money that flowed into the region during the last five years from the U.S. and Europe is being cashed out.
"It looks like giant forced sales, forced liquidation, unwinding of leverage globally. The velocity of the unwind is just amazing. Investors right now are still in redemption mode and liquidation," said Lawrence Glazer, managing partner of Mayflower Advisors in Bosto
MLM writes:
What could be more pressing than paying for all of this sh#t buy forcing people to buy treasuries? Except maybe locking up their assets in country - that's going to start looking pressing before long.
Well, assuming we can count on the government to do exactly the wrong thing until all such options are exhausted... the no-tax-breaks-for-401Ks proposal just doesn't seem quite "wrong enough".
dryfly said:
"Something seriously doesn't add up."
Someone near the business tells me that there has been a rapid increase in the mean vacancy, while costs have been gradually increasing. Both are being passed on to the end customer.
For example, if a hotel's vacancy went up from 10% to 40%, their occupancy dropped from 90% to 60%, which means they had to charge their customer 150% of the earlier rate just to maintain their earlier profit level (not counting inflation).
Nemo @ 1226:
As to renting out bathrooms only and sleeping in cars, this would be the truckstop model.
Truckers can use the facilities and showers there and then sleep in the cab compartments.
Now as to truckstop hookers...
On the 401K article - it didn't say tax breaks would be reduced - said redirected from voluntary to mandatory program... considering how big a failure 401Ks have been it should come as no accident pols are grasping at straws to come up w/ something else.
And I'm sure 'Investment News' is totally impartial - has no skin in the game.
Where will J6P and Joe The Plumber go for safety?
David Harding, founder of $15.5 billion Winton Capital Management LLC, said he is holding more cash on the possibility that exchanges may be closed.
The thing I worry about is they shut exchanges,'' Harding said at the Hedge 2008 conference in London yesterday.If at all possible, I don't want to be exposed to that with my clients' money.''
Winton's Harding `Worries' About Exchange Shutdowns, Holds Cash - Bloomberg.com
Jas is human?
Damn! I kinda thought he was a sort of creature that accompanied Pinhead from Hellraiser.
Shows what I know.
Nostrovia,
Dow only down 315. Something's shady
"I need a shower and hookup, please". Do you have a bundled price?
Whatev writes:
Need some advice. I have a couple of large checks to cash today, but don't want to deposit or take cash unless it is necessary.
Esp. with a liquidity crisis on, you are gonna get hung up in clearance for days unless you have a large account there and are cashing from the place that cut it and they really need to polish your knob.
Just let it clear and then pull it as cash.
It's not demand destruction!
It's more efficient driving due to GPS!
Less wasted miles looking for the missed turn, etc...
If one could use just one word to describe the current economic crisis it would be (What is your choice?) risk.
That is why all of the various government actions are doomed to fail, they all want to eliminate, but actually increase, risk, by guaranteeing everything.
The latest:
"Loan guarantees could be used as an incentive for services to modify loans," Blair said, "Specifically the government could establish standards for loan modifications and provide guarantees for loans meeting those standards."
"Under Ms. Ghilarducci's plan, all workers would receive a $600 annual inflation-adjusted subsidy from the U.S. government but would be required to invest 5% of their pay into a guaranteed retirement account administered by the Social Security Administration"
OMG! Do the DEMs want to loot even more $ from social security ? Do any of them know it's insolvent?
Throw fresh money in the inferno and watch it vanish LMAO!
Thats Ballgame Comrades writes:
Dow only down 315. Something's shady
Yah, or this is the point where the car-jacker has figured out how to drive the stolen vehicle on 4 blown tires, a few adjustments, steering not so good, lots of sparks. We might actually see this thing burst into flames soon.
For example, if a hotel's vacancy went up from 10% to 40%, their occupancy dropped from 90% to 60%, which means they had to charge their customer 150% of the earlier rate just to maintain their earlier profit level (not counting inflation).
Confused | 10.24.08 - 1:32 pm | #
Ya well - I'm staying in them less than ever because the unit cost per night is TOO high. If they want me back - they 'll have to take the hit. I won't - I'll compensate & I can, I know how.
Pass that one on to them for me.
If they kibosh the ability to further fund 401(k)s, I hope they go a step further and effectively end the stranglehold on existing 401(k) funds. All of my accumulations from my previous employer's 401(k) plans has long since been rolled into my IRA. I'd like to do the same thing with the good-sized chunk I have sitting in the most cash-like instrument available to me (Fidelity Gov MM). Can't do it without quitting my job, which doesn't jive well with my quirky preference for continued income.
ova writes:
No Politics please
No Wall Street Bailout, please.
No deregulation, please.
No interfering with the free market with limited liability for corporations and bankruptcy protection please.
If you can separate politics from economics you are self-sufficient in Alaska somewhere, and have no use for this blog.
Looks like my name change might have been premature.
Yen is way up - almost 3% from just a few hours ago; that's probably why the DOW is recovering. I assume some carry trader went bust and had to unwind in the worst way but now other carry traders are stepping in.
Kona,
Nice pull.
Capital preservation is the new gaming the market...question is, do you feel lucky?
No, me either.
whatev-
I think you've answered your own question...get the cash....you can always go put it back...
I've told many friends to get and have some spending cash, about two weeks worth, for when the "oh shit" moment happens. The best case is that you simply put it back.
Better to have and not need than to need and not have.
Ciao
MS
dryfly,
Been waiting to ask you this question...seems like an appropriate thread.
Do you still believe that Americans will not change their ways and start to save? (I believe your phrase was "not until their plastic is pried from their cold, dead hands")?
I am starting to see more anecdotal evidence of a change to debt aversion. And then, of course there is the issue of the availability of credit!
God help the auto industry (and US businesses in general) if debt becomes a dirty word!
It's more efficient driving due to GPS!
Dean, there's a square in a decabox with your name on it.
And so begins the saga of the next oil crisis.
Lower prices precede reduced exploration, and therefore reduced production in the out years. They also bring a flatter peak, but a peak that will arrive sooner than otherwise would have been. The urgency to conserve and prepare for the peak will diminish.
Marginal price below the marginal E&P cost of unconventional plays is the worst of all scenarios. The next crisis will be a dandy
Has anyone who stays at hotels gone to registration and said "I have $50 to pay for the night, do you want my business?"
I am curious if bargaining can be done at this point
JimPortlandOR writes:
"I need a shower and hookup, please". Do you have a bundled price?
JimPortlandOR | 10.24.08 - 1:34 pm | #
Nope. The hook up is an 'independent contractor' - you'll have to 1099 her.
dryfly said:
"Pass that one on to them for me."
Will do - though they are small fry, so it's not like it will make a difference in the tsunami.
Yah, or this is the point where the car-jacker has figured out how to drive the stolen vehicle on 4 blown tires, a few adjustments, steering not so good, lots of sparks. We might actually see this thing burst into flames soon.
I'm not believing this is anything even remotely resembling an intermediate plateau until I see a good solid 60-70 point elevator shaft move downward on the SPX.
Hotel/motel prices should be no surprise.
debt service
operating costs
the first response to vacancies
the end of internet arbitrage
and my favorite and likely major driver:
local taxes
Any questions?
Reduced need to commute to work, or to buy chinese knick-knacks.
Now as to truckstop hookers...
homedad43
Lot Lizards
Ministry of Truth said:
"I have $50 to pay for the night, do you want my business?"
Yes, several times in the last year. Not once has it been accepted. I was really surprised.
Ministry of Truth writes:
Has anyone who stays at hotels gone to registration and said "I have $50 to pay for the night, do you want my business?"
I am curious if bargaining can be done at this point
No (from my experience). So far Managers take their orders from the Corporate Death-Star. They don't set the rates, and they are not delegated with that authority. That's the next step in corporate adaptation, as on the battle field when the enemy has over-run your positions, you delegate out command until small functional units...since they don't teach this in first-tier MBA programs, I cannot imagine it happening for some time.
--my two cents
Russia's taking it in the shorts..."The Telegraph is reporting Russian default risk tops Iceland as crisis deepens.
Russia's financial crisis is escalating with lightning speed as foreigners pull funds from the country and the debt markets start to price a serious risk of sovereign default. The cost of insuring Russian bonds against bankruptcy rocketed to extreme levels yesterday. Spreads on credit default swaps (CDS) reached 1,123, higher than Iceland's debt before it sought a rescue from the International Monetary Fund...Russian companies must roll over $47bn of foreign loans over the next two months, and a further $150bn or so next year, a task that has become close to impossible as investors flee Eastern Europe."
The Russia story has been buried in the background, but this is huge. All of their saber-rattling is backfiring, it seems.
Has anyone who stays at hotels gone to registration and said "I have $50 to pay for the night, do you want my business?
When i appraised a hotel, the owners told me that you could do this if it was later in the night and you were offering over their breakeven cost. It made sense. They didn't want you walking back out that door. Its like DIY Priceline.
Re: hotels, has anyone ever tried hotwire? I have gotten great deals with it.
Ministry of Truth said:
"I have $50 to pay for the night, do you want my business?"
Yes, several times in the last year. Not once has it been accepted. I was really surprised.
Confused
Maybe you are ugly. Oh... you meant the rooms. Sorry.
Russia going under? At least Putin will know where his dog is when all hell breaks loose!
As mentioned last night ....mutual fund year oct 31.
Ok, I see I've been corrected by people who have tried this. My experience was 20 years ago so perhaps the corporate mentality has killed this opportunity. Just one more reason "this hotel industry sucker is going down"
Is it possible that the world credit supply chain and currency system can collapse while the world energy delivery system continues running smoothly? In the midst of all this talk of demand destruction and deflationary price collapse is it reasonable to consider energy shortages, hiding out there in plain sight, or is that getting 2 steps ahead instead of 1?
Where's the Kaboom?
Who are the choices for BFF?
nades | Homepage | 10.24.08 - 1:24 pm | #
Couple in Georgia are supposed to implode today per a poster here a few days ago. Can;t find the link tho.
Lockyer has led an effort to push rating companies to assign municipal bond grades that reflect their lower risk of default compared to corporate debt. Fitch and Moody's, which were to begin rating tax-exempt bonds by new standards as soon as this month, both announced on Oct. 7 that they will delay implementing their new systems.
As investors lose trillions of dollars in the stock market, and have justifiable fears about investing in corporate bonds, the rating agencies have an even greater responsibility to assign accurate ratings that inform investors of the relative safety of municipal bonds,'' Lockyer said in the letter.Pulling back from taking the first tentative steps to correct the rating inequities sends exactly the wrong signal to the market.'
Do you still believe that Americans will not change their ways and start to save? (I believe your phrase was "not until their plastic is pried from their cold, dead hands")?
I am starting to see more anecdotal evidence of a change to debt aversion. And then, of course there is the issue of the availability of credit!
No I don't see any voluntary desire to save from anyone I've met in years. Very few anyway.
What I have seen is a lot of plastic pried from (economically) dead fingers. It is much harder for people to get loans unless they are VERY good risks (don't really need the loan - just more convenient).
This includes student loans, homes, consumer, etc.
I see NO increased propensity for saving - just a lot less ability to find cheap easy debt. The result from a numbers perspective will be similar (slowing debt growth) but I see very few telling me they are are saving more. Struggling more - yes - saving more - no.
BTW - companies have been reporting decreased 401K contributions and NOT because the market is going down - they are using that cash to offset consumption they USED to buy on credit but can't anymore.
We might see saving again someday but it is way out there on the horizon - we got hell to pay first.
Rob Dawg writes:
Nothing in particular
Just wanted to say good luck with the ticker. Heard you talking about the post surgery meds last night.
S&P REITERATES BUY RECOMMENDATION ON SHARES OF VALERO We are raising our '08 EPS forecast by $0.44 to $3.94, but trimming '09's by $0.86 to $3.50, '10's by $0.78 to $3.09. Blending our DCF into narrowed relative valuations, we cut our target price by $18 to $25.
I don't Americans will save.
Saving has been beaten out of the culture by the preponderance of media promoting an expensive lifestyle.
How many of you are familiar with MTV's "My Super Sweet 16"?
No one wants to be the loser with old clothes, a walkman and looking for a public phone.
COURIC: Have you ever been involved with any {financial} negotiations, for example, with the Russians {lately}?
PALIN: We have trade missions back and forth. We-- we do-- it's very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia as Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where-- where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border. It is-- from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there. They are right next to-- to our state.
Rob Dawg said:
"Maybe you are ugly. Oh... you meant the rooms. Sorry."
Funny.
Cote,
Why do you run a PC repair shop when you have quite the wit?
Just curious.
And when do we get that post about how your daughter chose her college?
peAkcredit,
Interesting idea. Possibly. If systemic economic collapse is followed with destabilized governments (if western countries achieved unemployment above the GD levels of 25%). I don't "believe" that is on the horizon. Maybe you could flesh this idea out.
When i appraised a hotel, the owners told me that you could do this if it was later in the night and you were offering over their breakeven cost. It made sense. They didn't want you walking back out that door. Its like DIY Priceline.
I was able to do that with reasonable levels of success a couple of years ago when I drove across the country in both directions. One friendly night clerk at a Marriott in El Paso told me she had a number she couldn't go below, and it dropped as the evening progressed. She had to start at the rack rate, but after 10pm, she cold start offering discounts to get rooms filled. The manager gave the night staff a small commission on walk-ins. I can only assume that practice will catch on as occupancy rates continue to drop.
Now as to truckstop hookers...
I said...
"I have $50 to pay for the night, do you want my business?"
Hey Kudlow...if falling gas prices are a tax cut, what are falling house prices?
Regards:
Brain Dead Viewer
Comrade Beach writes:
I don't Americans will save.
Hunger is a powerful force for change.
Psssst.....anyone know where I can still get a good subprime loan? You know, one of those option ARMS with a pick-a-pay feature and a low teaser rate...
Dean, there's a square in a decabox with your name on it.
MLM
LOL ! ! !!
Whatev, yea I remember the Georgia thread. I spoke with a banker in the midwest yesterday, he said the CRE is really their only poorly preforming asset. They didnt have much tho... He said other ones in the area were full of the stuff tho...
As crude oil goes, so goes our stock market. USO is a leading indicator today
The Russia story has been buried in the background, but this is huge. All of their saber-rattling is backfiring, it seems.
I agree the saber-rattling is hurting them, but I think it's mostly fundamentals. Russia is a profoundly corrupt society run on "skim off the top" principles on money leveraged from stratospheric commodities prices. Now that we're heading into a depression, and commodities aren't worth much, their Cosa Nostra business model is totally bust.
Hunger is a powerful force for change.
JP | Homepage | 10.24.08 - 1:51 pm | #
Hunger doesn't promote saving - quite the opposite. Hunger promotes less debt but no savings either.
You assume folks will equate saving with avoiding future hunger - if that were the case we'd not have had the debt binge. It's existence in spades proves your assumption is flawed.
We'll need to hit bottom before those assumptions will be 'valid' again.
"He said other ones in the area were full of the stuff tho..."
He must work for a "fortress" bank. Sure it's hurting over there, but not here; this is prime.
POIC, I wondered the same.
Nades--If you look at the bank rater at thestreet.com, there are tons of Georgia banks with D and E ratings.
Knock knock... Please allow me to escort you to your seats for this week's closing act.
I'll be here all next week if you enjoy the show!
these fuckers will not let it go below 8000. It will happen. Book it down hard.
I think we're setting up for that elevator shaft move I ordered. Of course, 2 PM looms, so 400 point moves in either direction are equally likely.
C Beach:"No one wants to be the loser with old clothes, a walkman and looking for a public phone."
I drive by a transit center with a mini mart/pay phone often. Usually 3-4 people waiting to use the phone. I think they might have killed the pay phone too soon.
Thrift stores have seen increased traffic and sales. Drive by a Good Will and look at the cars in the parking lot. Many $500 a month SUV owners shopping there.
C'mon DOW... crash crash crash
If the market closes early today I think that everyone should get the rest of the day off....
Recess!!!!!
Doesn't the circuit breaker value increase after 2 PM?
OT....Glodamn friggin' Windows Servers!
I' trying to keep up on CR you worthless pieces of crap!
Nostrovia,
We don't belong anywhere above 7740 (3/7/03). That's for damn sure.
NYSE, New York Stock Exchange > About Us > News & Events > Media Resources > Media Resources
OT: To those following the Pittsburgh "B carved on my face by an Obama supporter story", she just admitted to making the whole thing up.
I drive by a transit center with a mini mart/pay phone often. Usually 3-4 people waiting to use the phone. I think they might have killed the pay phone too soon.
Thrift stores have seen increased traffic and sales. Drive by a Good Will and look at the cars in the parking lot. Many $500 a month SUV owners shopping there.
Gone Fishin' | 10.24.08 - 1:58 pm | #
Yes but they aren't there because they want to boost their savings - they are there because they don't have any credit.
Why do you run a PC repair shop when you have quite the wit?
Just curious.
And when do we get that post about how your daughter chose her college?
Use the contact info and we can discuss your issues. What? What's that? You prefer anonymity? Gee, I wonder why. Actually my eldest's choice is a matter of record and none too shabby.
"President Bush Says Americans Live in the 'Wrong Economy'
Speaking to reporters this morning, President Bush blamed the current economic crisis on the fact that Americans have been living in the wrong economy. "It's just too bad," Bush noted, "Good Americans have been living and working in a reality-based economy. The faith-based economy is doing just dandy. Hank Paulson told me so yesterday.'"
Russia, sabre-rattling? How about USA?
Ok, we're entering the depression. Get with the program.
Print money, create bubble, try to fix bust by printing more money, protectionism, blame the hobos, new deal, blame immigrants, more intervention, print money, kill capitalism. Ah, tired. 10 years. WWIII. That should fix it.
Thanks, nades. So a 600+ drop in the next 30 minutes or we're playing without a net for the last 90 minutes of trading. Interesting.
dryfly,
Reduced spending just might indicate that folks are trying to pay down debt and perhaps even save...
Here is the evidence that I have seen:
The other day I heard an NPR Radio program about a man separating from his wife because she would not join him in cutting back on spending.
I think it's happening, and will pick up speed.
Just wanted to say good luck with the ticker. Heard you talking about the post surgery meds last night.
Byzantine_Ruins
Thanks. Really. But please save your kind thoughts for the more worthy; e.g. Tanta.
here banks in ga.
Atlanta Metro News | ajc.com
Credit was savings. Ask anyone with maxed out credit cards. How many commenters out there look at their CC's as a safety net? Cashed out their HELOC and invested in a 5% CD? Debt is our savings in America and as it gets used up there is no plan B except default.
Let the good times roll.
I'm with Dryfly. The last 90 minutes are critical because they are not collared.
Gone Fishin'
"Debt is our savings in America and as it gets used up there is no plan B except default."
Couldn't agree more. People think a line of credit is a rainy day fund.
Nostrovia,
Your show will begin momentarily. Please be courteous to others and turn your cell phones off now.
JP writes:
Comrade Beach writes:
I don't Americans will save.
Hunger is a powerful force for change.
I'll save more once I pay down my debt.
Currently 80% pay down debt / 20% save in very liquid form
The big thing for me right now is the elimination of unnecessary expenses (and the wife is finally getting it).
MarketWatch tempting gods - part deux.
"Bears Backtracking"
bubblevision headline - "markets are off their lows"
How ridiculous. How can they be on their lows every second of the day ? But GS is plumbing for the bottom.
Hank is NOT HAPPY! Expect another intervention.
Rob Dawg:
Thanks. Really. But please save your kind thoughts for the more worthy; e.g. Tanta.
Tanta's already got all my love, man. That don't mean you don't get some props too. It's not like regard for your fellow man is a finite good.
I promise if y'all both need to live at my house -- competition for finite resources -- I'll pick Tanta over you.
i dont understand if you dont want to spend then dont. easy as that.
MarketWatch U-turn: "Beware the Bear Hour"
I think the hotel industry has serious reality problems and will be adjusting their rates later than sooner. Had a buddy who worked for one of the big consulting shops who did a study for a hotel chain on telephone rates. His conclusion was that if they lowered their stratospheric rates, people would actually, you know, use the phones and they'd book a lot more revenue. Pretty duh, but he ran the numbers. Chain didn't want to hear it.
This has me worried, i.e, the trend between Palin and crisis
Google Trends: palin, crisis
New market term: DPT
The Dump Promotion Team just came on duty. (DJ - 5.24%)
They are fresh from a nap, and ready for action.
I predict we'll end the day down between 600 and 799.
Those are numbers that America and J6P are numb to at this point, and that figure won't incite any extra panic.
The question is, does the PPT have any bullets left for 3 pm after this morning's show?
@ Kona 1:46,
Munis have done pretty well over the past few days.
Now that we're heading into a depression, and commodities aren't worth much, their Cosa Nostra business model is totally bust.
I was over there in the late 90's, and that about sums up the business model. Sure, they busted up Aeroflot domestically. However, it worked out that if you wanted to go to city A, you took X airline from Moscow; to go to city B, you took Y, and so on. Very little direct competition since they pretty much divvied up the territory and ran their own fiefdoms.
As crude oil goes, so goes our stock market. USO is a leading indicator today
Seems like a short term correlation only.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#chart10:symbol=^gspc;range=2y;compare=uso;indicator=sma(50,200)+dividend+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Reduced spending just might indicate that folks are trying to pay down debt and perhaps even save...
Here is the evidence that I have seen:
All of that is far more likely to be explained by tight credit NOT saving.
I know you WANT to believe saving is occurring - I see no evidence of it in the numbers and even less rational for it given declining employment and tightening credit.
But wish all you want - I'll wait for hard data not just suggestive data that is more likely indicative of economic hardship - not actual saving.
"The faith-based economy is doing just dandy. Hank Paulson told me so yesterday"
ROFL !!
Russia is the US. They are just a few years ahead of us.
I think I would take their criminals over ours. At least their criminals take pride in being thugs. Our thugs wear three piece suits, have an MBA and keep pissing down our backs and saying it's just a little rain.
gabyjani writes:
dont understand if you dont want to spend then dont. easy as that.
I assume you mean me.
Habits die hard. It's not like I'm out spending unreasonably. I have no cc debt - just a mortgage and small LOC bal (almost gone and was used for the purpose the LOC was originally designed - home improvement / major maintenance).
However, hard for my family to internalize an approach that essentially cuts you off from all of your friends when the don't see, and therefor don't believe, that hard times 'iz ah happnin'. I'm slowly chipping away at the resistance.
Oh-my-loan-kenobi:
Sounds like that Marriott in El Paso is well managed. It's amazing how few front desk clerks are schooled in breakeven numbers and/or aren't allowed to negotiate with late night walk-ins.
You assume folks will equate saving with avoiding future hunger - if that were the case we'd not have had the debt binge. It's existence in spades proves your assumption is flawed.
We'll need to hit bottom before those assumptions will be 'valid' again.
dryfly | 10.24.08 - 1:55 pm | #
Time for a quiz! Hunger causes
(a) no change in behavior
(b) change in behavior.
Are you really arguing that (a) is true?
ericblair writes:
I think the hotel industry has serious reality problems and will be adjusting their rates later than sooner. Had a buddy who worked for one of the big consulting shops who did a study for a hotel chain on telephone rates. His conclusion was that if they lowered their stratospheric rates, people would actually, you know, use the phones and they'd book a lot more revenue. Pretty duh, but he ran the numbers. Chain didn't want to hear it.
ericblair | 10.24.08 - 2:11 pm | #
Next they'll try to block cell phone reception in the hotel... good luck w/ that.
That came out a little bitter, it should have cynical and bitter with a dash of rage. I'll work on my subtle nuances in commenting about the obvious.
I promise if y'all both need to live at my house -- competition for finite resources -- I'll pick Tanta over you. - Byzantine_Ruin
Dammit. You want me to bust a bypass?
dryfly writes:
I drive by a transit center with a mini mart/pay phone often. Usually 3-4 people waiting to use the phone. I think they might have killed the pay phone too soon.
I'm with you... I think folks are going to start shedding media contracts. Cell phones, cable, satellite, TIVO. People will keep their internet, because that's their link to the barter economy.
And just wait till the gummint takes away free rabbit-ears television in a couple of months. THAT will be a consumer riot.
I think we're moving back to the days of landlines and transistor radios. But only The Shadow knows...
Maybe the PTB want this market to tank so they can come in and buy cheap?
Time for a quiz! Hunger causes
(a) no change in behavior
(b) change in behavior.
Are you really arguing that (a) is true?
JP | Homepage | 10.24.08 - 2:18 pm | #
A change in behavior doesn't meant the only behavior change possible will be 'saving'. The change in behavior might be use a lot more cash and save even less than before because credit is unavailable.
I mean are you arguing that starving people would rather save than buy food?
Bond Girl,
Perhaps munis are like the equivalent of a WaMu or Indymac this week?
OT but funny - when I checked the Yahoo Dow ticker I saw one of those subprime mortgage "Bush just signed a housing bill!" ripoff ads with an animated attention grabber.
But the attention-grabber was a clip from some BW horror film of a woman screaming in terror. Very apropos!
joga didnt really mean anyone. just a truth that i learned a long time ago.
OnTheRun writes:
Maybe the PTB want this market to tank so they can come in and buy cheap?
OnTheRun | 10.24.08 - 2:21 pm | #
I know some very unhappy vultures who are demanding... I want my vulture discount & I want it NOW!!!
gabyjan,
thanks - as I've said before - hard to detect tone in type.
probably just my frustration with doing the right thing, and getting kicked in the cajones as a reward.
Best regards
only the shadow knows?.....
only the shadow accountant knows!
FOund a picture of Jas ... see number 9.
Redirect Notice
Right now - USO says we're going higher...
Our summer vacation at the shore involves an ~11 hour drive. This past August we made it in 9.5 hours - even with an additional break along the route.
Well, brokers got to get that stack of Sell Orders sometime today. Might as well be now.
Please commence dropping.
With Russia collapsing I wonder how they will react to an Obama win. It would seem a good time for military aggression given Obama's pledge to bring troops home. Not attacking Obama, I want the troops home as well. Just thinking strategically.
Well as a front desk clerk for a hotel i can tellyou that the summer was slow and the rack rates were lower than the used to be.
There is a minimum price they need to get for our site that covers the operational costs.
Now in the future if they change their criteria for what constitutes a clean room? well, i assume the cost goes lower (less hours, fewer housekeepers, less maintenance). Of course the people staying wont get what they have expected. We do have many people that stay every year, snowbirds back and forth, business travelers etc.
So go ahead and try and dicker, but dont be a dick about it. there are limits to how low we can go, per management, and if the clerk politely but firmly says no, then no.
Oh, and to the people who really really think they are going to travel with 3 adults, 2 kids and 2 dogs, you are NOT going to get a room for 54.95, EVAH!! No matter how much you whine yell or pout at me, SO THERE!
JS,
Russia's military is good enough to invade a former 2nd world soviet satellite.
All this debt talk reminds of a friend of mine. Totally self made. Never once borrowed a nickel, no mortgage ever, cash only for cars,houses, companies, everything. Worth about 100mil. Also doesn't own a watch or a cell phone.
Debt is not your friend.
"With Russia collapsing I wonder how they will react to an Obama win. It would seem a good time for military aggression given Obama's pledge to bring troops home. Not attacking Obama, I want the troops home as well. Just thinking strategically."
I doubt it. Russia has problems at home for the foreseeable future. But there could be defensive moves.
How to contact Eric the Spammer's credit card processor about him operating a criminal enterprise using their CC clearing system:
Contact Support Form - logiforms
Kona,
Not really the same thing at all. Everything that has happened in the muni market to date (auction rate failures, commercial paper problems, etc.) is not related to credit, IMO. Munis are very high credits relative to other credit issuers and, again relative other issuers, default rates are almost non-existent. Access to the bond market is very important to government entities and paying debt service is a very high priority, perhaps the highest priority. (Not to say that governments won't have some very tough political decisions ahead of them with respect to spending in the near future.)
The rating agencies have traditionally rated municipal credits lower than corporate bonds with comparable default risk, but they do seem to plan to change their scale. That is a major undertaking, and I think the rating agencies are walking on eggshells at this point.
Muni yields are down up to 9 bps today and the Bond Buyer 20 Bond General Obligation Index has had one of the biggest weekly declines in a long time. This is a big deal because the market was virtually paralyzed a while ago. The market has been pretty much carried by an influx of retail demand, but it looks like institutional investors are returning too now. It is going to be a very different landscape for the credit markets with some dealers out of the picture, etc. But deals that have been postponed are returning to the market. (Knock on wood.)
Credit indicators are all over the place though.
Russia will probably become more confident about aggressive military action within the old Soviet empire.
"OnTheRun writes:
All this debt talk reminds of a friend of mine. Totally self made. Never once borrowed a nickel, no mortgage ever, cash only for cars,houses, companies, everything. Worth about 100mil. Also doesn't own a watch or a cell phone.
Debt is not your friend."
Hey, not all of us can sell drugs. I tried it, I didn't have enough street cred.
Zephyr writes:
Russia will probably become more confident about aggressive military action within the old Soviet empire.
Zephyr | Homepage | 10.24.08 - 2:42 pm | #
Geography is more important than 'policy' when considering geopolitical outcomes. I don't know who said it first (it is a VERY old concept) but is as true now as ever.
The idea that some how the neocons could have repealed this is as logical as repealing 'gravity'.
BTW - same applies to Putin in Venezuela - he and Chavez can play only as long as we 'let' them.
2:56, who's calling the final stretch for the markets?
I got mad respect for CR, but I don't think "demand destruction" means what he thinks it means. That is to observe the counter-intuitive --insofar as US propagand constitutes intuition-- proposition: suppliers' cuts determine price elasticity.
The day Saudis et al cannot cut production to maintain OPEC price target is the day consumers around the world realize crude is useless. Until then, "demand destruction" by suppliers is a cartel manipulative to increase price by cutting production volume.
Let's note: OPEC "swing" supplier Saudi Arabia has not yet physically short crude production. For the EU, Russia "swing" supplier has not yet physically short gas production. Both have indicated publicly their intent to support revenue, regardless of imminent global depression of doom.
While one could argue that US consumer preference has rejected pump-price deflation, c.p., by adopting (marginal) light rail/car pool transportation alternatives to single-passenger car (or "negotiate" unemployment risks by tele-commute?), crude and gas plant consumers are still on the hook (less LOC facilities to purchase forwards) for ~ 60% of market value and volume.
At least speculators have exited commodities since June: for the foreseeable future, analysts can price real demand against true supply.
YouTube -
Ella sings "Georgia on My Mind" Sweden 1963
Rob Dawg said:
"Use the contact info and we can discuss your issues."
Ugh, don't get so upset. Was just yanking your chain the way you tweaked me nose.
You do have to admit, the tech world is not known for folks as adept at repartee as yourself. It just seems like an unusual match.
On the college issue, it was a genuine question. In comments on your site, way back when you said you'd explain the choice. The actual decision itself isn't anywhere near interesting as hearing about the process of how you arrived at it - what was factored in and how things were weighed.
Of course, if you want to be offended because of my pseudonymity, that's your privilege.
That's only a drop of what, 750 million gallons of gas? LOL!
But wish all you want - I'll wait for hard data not just suggestive data that is more likely indicative of economic hardship - not actual saving.
The Federal Reserve tracks this kind of stuff. Been bouncing almost around nothing until the bad news hit and then it jumped to 4%. Of course, now the job market has turned it's going south again a well.
St. Louis Fed: Series: PSAVERT, Personal Saving Rate
Hey Kona, you may want to see the greater relationship between Biden and Crisis: Google Trends: biden, crisis
Oversized vehicles driven to the mall by morons, I'd like you to meet demand destruction.
Demand destruction, meet oversized vehicles driven to the mall by morons.
You two are going to get along very well.
I think we're moving back to the days of landlines and transistor radios. But only The Shadow knows...
Anonymous | 10.24.08 - 2:21 pm | #
Don't overlook ham radio. Always ready during any catastrophe (batteries) and generators. It always works!
Big HF contest weekend starting at 0001 UTC tomorrow. Thousands of participants worldwide.
Well CR, we would appreciate an analysis of the oil saga. Why it went up so far and why it has fallen so rapidly and so much. Was the rise due mainly to speculation or to real demand and is the drop due to the speculators bailing out or to a steep drop in demand? (It seems to me odd that real demand could drop off so much and so rapidly) It looks in retrospect like a "bubble" of sorts. What is your take on it all?
This is one of my favorite charts that CR posts. If there was a way to overlay discretionary income changes due to fuel price that would be illuminating. People have been driving fewer miles, but gas prices are now dropping a lot. Prices dropped significantly between 1980-1983 and miles driven shot up despite a severe recession. I wonder if we will see an upsurge in miles driven this time? I suspect that tightening of credit might dampen the effect this time around.
What I find interesting is how much the oil producers bought into the notion that demand was inelastic, and when it finally starting dropping, they thought they'd finally hit the ceiling of tolerated price, and that if they dropped the price back, demand would stabilize...
It seems clear to me now that the price sensitivity is there and fairly normal in magnitude- it just takes an abnormally (insanely) long time for the reactive movement to occur...