Keep Funding 401(k) Even Without Match, Planners Say (Update1)
By Jeff Plungis and Alexis Leondis
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Employees should maintain contributions to 401(k) plans even if their company stops matching them, as General Motors Corp. did yesterday, financial planners say.
To save cash amid slumping sales, GM suspended payments to 401(k) plans for nonunion employees beginning Nov. 1.
There are immediate tax benefits in any 401(k) regardless of an employer match, said Rob Williams, a fee-only financial planner at Columbia, Maryland-based Baltimore-Washington Financial Advisors.
Employees cannot cut back,'' Williams said.If anything, contributions might have to go up. Assuming they pay 35 percent in state and federal taxes, for every $100 they put into the plan, it's reducing their taxes by $35. The money they lose from their budget is only $65.'' Keep Funding 401(k) Even Without Match, Planners Say (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
The TED spread is "noisy." Today's 2.70 versus yesterday's 2.58 is not better or worse. Perhaps a forward weighted 3 day MA? That would show flat to slightly better which IMO more accurately reflects the true state of affairs.
a pretty good paper by Jared Bernstein of EPI on unemployment/underemployment and how this downturn will effect wages. this presented today to congress.
It's buried in a previous thread but I had a phonecall from a friend, longtime inst. trader and he told me that tons of sell orders are just being ignored. It is anecdotal and you have to take it FWIW however he has no reason to lie to me as I'm not a client. I trust what he says and I've known him for over 25 years first as a business contact then a friend.
oh I forgot to add that I would also like to thank HOG, NFLX, SBUX and a raft of other painfully overvalued POS stock's too. I still retain core positions is all of them...profits are from trading positions only.
You pretty much hit on today yesterday..that's what made me call him after I looked further into you original postulation. Volumes yesterday certainly told a tale. So did a few other things.
C Beach:"No one wants to be the loser with old clothes, a walkman and looking for a public phone."
Beach - That was a great line and explains why this is a consumer dominated country. It would also make a great refrain/chorus in a song.
God bless you all but we are going down. They may have yelled "All Back Emergency" to the engine room but it was a little bit to late.
I was on the bridge of a deep sea tug when I heard that shouted out. We survived but it was close. Unlike the tug the USS America has already hit the coral. Those working down below don't stand much of a chance.
Damage control is going on and compartments are reported being sealed. It ain't going to matter.
Sharks are in water, and so are a lot us in the coming months.
I can't explain it either...just as shocked as most of you are about it. I gather that the pit trader's have some sort of agreement when the shit hits the fans. This is for institutional trading only...can't speak to the electronic trade. But in any case you've got a system that is virtually hanging on for it's life on any given day so I discount nothing and surmise that if it is possible it can happen.
Looking at the new 52 week lows, the interim count is 1,129 out of the 3,480 issues on the NYSE...so 32.4% of all the stocks hit a new 52 week low today...so far.
Good to see all those bailout monies were well spent. Looks like they just disappeared into black holes as the banks horde cash in the face of deflation.
Business Week lists the unlucky 13 nations that could follow Iceland
into a melting collapse. In its nations at risk the list contains some
of the usual suspects but a few surprises-
Pakistan
Argentina
Serbia
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
Vietnam
Romania
Kazakhstan
Latvia
Hungary
South Korea
New Zealand
You mean individuals are calling their broker to say "get me out" and the brokers aren't doing it? Or what?
I think MS's friend is referring to one of two situations:
(1) a fund is getting tons of sell orders, but they either have enough cash now to meet redemptions, or have enough leeway in their prospectus to wait
or
(2) the orders are "not held". We used to use these all the time when we traded with floor brokers on the NYSE. It's shorthand for "you (the broker) are not held responsible for best execution, use your best judgement". So we'd call down and say "sell 50,000 IBM at 75 or above, not held". Which meant that if IBM traded over 75, maybe to 76, the broker may or may not fill you, if it thinks it will go higher, he'll wait.
Somewhat the opposite of "not held" for a floor broker is "I would", as in "I would do it all right there", so "sell 50,000 at 75 or higher, I would", says dump it as fast as you can over 75.
and lets not forget Turkey, which will make a major incursion into Iraq if they verge on systemic meltdown...great for distracting the domestic population.
Think outside the box and you can see how it is able to be accomplished. The markets are controlled by a smaller number of 'tutes than it was 7 months ago. I don't have any logical reasoning or thought process that allows me to have a better understanding of it but if the entire system is leveraged to "up" then it's not unreasonable to think that they will try anything to continue fighting for a broken business model.
Again I was just as aghast at what I heard too....but I wasn't all that surprised by it either.
ANd I am just the messenger of anecdotal information.
Think of it this way...the traders all know who is buying the SPX at 3pm onward...they just have it in there best interest to keep quiet about it. At some point they won't....
Remember I have placed a caveat on this from the start (a few threads ago).
The hardest thing to face about this market decline is the obvious fact of what poor losers they are on the down side. I've been a contrarian for a long time and took a lickin. But, I didn't complain. I took my feckin losses and kept on taking them on the redicilous upward speculation. A lot of times they didn't fill my low bids even though I was first in line at the open. They just didn't open....technical problems, they said.
Now they start to lose a bit and they go changing the rules. Reducing Interest rates, taxing income trusts....Manipulations galore from the Fed almost every week. No short selling. Direct buying of equity, trillions in bailouts and much more. Now they're buying everything with my tax dollars!
Feckin stop it and take your loss like a capitalist you woozie market weenies.
Respect the Free Market or it will never work properly again.
War is inflationary. The world is facing deflation, bad for the US. Ergo sum; war is coming.
My bet is we invade Canada and start a siege on the Mexico border. Make them think we'll invade but we'll really just be stopping mass migration from the US into Mexico. Picture that.
The Hawaiian Islands are also for sale to any Asian country willing to buy 30 yr T-bills. So far no takers but Taiwan is showing interest dependent on their deal for several US carrier groups plus crew. Several constitutional issues to work through but congress is reporting progress.
Thanks for the insider baseball Eric.
What it sounds like is somethng we have seen all too often. Huge sell-off in closing minutes.
Hold on to your hats.
Well I'd be parsing through the same amount too. What he said was that there seems to be some epic move coming tomorrow based on what he observed on volume. All I did was "woke up" and looked at volumes and a few other things. I say "woke up" because this market has put me to sleep with the daily prognostications of it's death only to be resurrected by yet another stick save into the close.
It was a moment of clarity for myself...it was just his comment that made it happen.
MS: Thanks MS. Just thought you might have it readily available, but that is just as good. I did see that comment when looking for his post, but it was one line so I didn't think that was it. Doh.
How many more wars can we fight? Mish keeps banging the deflation drum, as in we are going down the Japan route, so how does his view square with 'inflation is nigh' prognostications? Someone with some insight, please explain.
"Feckin stop it and take your loss like a capitalist you woozie market weenies. "
They're not capitalists. They're bureaucrats in drag. The whole free market notion was always a propaganda shill. Right now they're showing their true face.
I like the daily update on short term credit crisis indicators, however, I suggest that you should also be looking at the spreads for HY and IG corporates at longer maturities where the ability of the Fed to affect these measures are far more limited. I feel that there's much more valuable information there.
Morgan filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in federal court in Nashville, Tennessee, on Wednesday, listing her estimated liabilities ranging between $1 million to $10 million. The bankruptcy filing showed her with assets of $500,000 to $1 million.
The 49-year-old singer released a statement calling the bankruptcy "an unfortunate yet necessary part of the restructuring of my business."
In 1992, Morgan said she repaid her creditors in full and withdrew a bankruptcy petition after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, listing more than $846,000 in debts.
Her hits include "What Part of No" and "I Didn't Know My Own Strength."
I agree with needing to put Mexico on the "watch list" for implosion. Oil, tourism and remittances are the three pillars of the economy and each is getting killed.
The best that can be said for Mexico is that is will continue to be able to do lower cost manufacturing. It might be able take some work back from China, but not until companies have the funds for the next round of factory building. Currently, some of the biggest employers in central Mexico are automakers- Ford, GM, VW- and their suppliers. So even manufacturing will be hit in the short term.
Lets just hope that its stays politically stable through this period.
Diversity is perversity. Birds of a feather flock together. Legal immigration will not solve social security or the tax base. Try immigrating to countries like Switzerland or Denmark...nope. They actually protect jobs for their people, and it's sustainable. Imagine that? Were the 1950s really so bad? Immigrants think that coming to US is their God-given right...well, I hate to break it to them...IT AIN'T. If they want it, they need to stop acting like pussies and try to take it by force. And yes, I'm referring to Mexico for the most part. "La Raza" to be exact. Take your Spanish language and culture back to your own country and stop being pussies and stand up to your own government for a change, instead of expecting the United States to provide you with property ownership, defense, safety, laws, health care, food stamps, education, infrastructure, entitlements, etc. LEAVE NOW!
I was just IMing with a friend about an hour ago, and I felt my "dream" situation would be to rally between 2pm and 3pm (up 50-200 points), which would set us up for a selling climax into the close. Part 1 complete. Go baby go!
Pissed Off, Could this happen in a year, though. Unlikely, I'd think. Why in God's name is everyone so uncertain about it? It is The Big Question if you are a saver sitting on cash.
I've seen some reports that almost 150k mexi's a day go back. My mother inlaws boyfriend (legal from Sinaloa) pretty much backs that story up but puts the number at about 100k or so.
There is no work for them any longer...so they just go back. Remittances are down quite a bit too.
Wait until we have crops to be picked and no one willing to pick them. $7 for a head of lettuce is coming.
And here comes the stick save!!! Right on time. F!@# you can set a watch to it.
Wait until we have crops to be picked and no one willing to pick them.
Does this mean that America won't be subjected to California's shitty "strawberries" any more (you know, the one that have 1 mm of red coating and are completely made of tasteless white core)?
If so... YAY.
Here in NY we get our strawberries the way Mother Nature intended... down on the farm, in June, and people who want real strawberries go pick their own.
On mexico-
The risks of a political melt down are fairly high. A certain segment sees the war on drugs (and it actually is a war down there) as the wrong strategy. Why try to kill your country's last best source of export profits?
Then you have the instability of the flood of workers returning from the US looking for work.
But don't worry about the strawberrys in the US. There will be plenty of $7 an hr. strawberry pickers in 2009. They'll be the guy who was getting $20 an hr. to install your granite last year.
Assuming things remain in crisis mode and the Japanese current account declines to non-carry trade levels, we get 88 JPY/USD
This is why the Japanese central bank hasn't tried an intervention yet, it's still too far to cover the gap.
The Japanese Yen fell/appreciated to 91 JPY/USD overnight last night, but went back to 94.42.
Expect over the next week the Japanese Yen to return to ~90 JPY/USD, have the BoJ intervene and once that happens for American and European markets to have some light volume sideways days, followed by the bear market rally.
My no fun until after Hallowe'en bear market rally of 2008 could begin a couple of days early, but I still like that target as the market is not clearing out the carry-trade rot with conviction yet.
This year was about stalling credit growth and unwinding carry trades. Next year will be about declining earnings. 2010 will be about growth missing in action. That would bring an S&P500 with a 3 handle
Fair Economist,
The 88 was just a 'back of the envelope' extrapolation
Foreign markets producing good returns, carry trade comes in, JPY depreciates and CA increases proportionally
For the montetary base to fall in line with the Japanese domestic economy, it has to start tracking the bank notes in circulation. Basically the Yen at its bottom will have to go from a global currency to a domestic one.
So take the peak monetary base, which coincides with JPY/USD's peak, look at where the monetary base 'should be' and apply that same ratio to JPY/USD
If my expectations of a poor global economy do hold true, we should see some interesting things. JPY will be weak due to an economy dependent on the carry-trade to artificially depreciate the currency, yet commodity prices will be increasing -- Japan will have stagflation. This would cause the BoJ to finally raise rates and operate like a normal country
My basic assumption with that forecast is that the USD must depreciate to balance its current account, and so commodity prices in USD must rise and that will help them to be the premier investments over and above the depressed equity markets globally.
Why they let it get out of control?
Boosted exports = happy politicians
BoJ has never acted independently of politics.
Long term carry trades unwind, and no depreciation of the currency has happened. The downside is that exporting companies became dependent on the cheap yen that was sanitized from inflation by those using it to invest overseas.
For the montetary base to fall in line with the Japanese domestic economy, it has to start tracking the bank notes in circulation. Basically the Yen at its bottom will have to go from a global currency to a domestic one.
That would make sense. So the BOJ is deliberately canceling the carry trade, but keeping the domestic money supply constant. The deflationary pain is imposed on the rest of the world.
Japan will have stagflation. This would cause the BoJ to finally raise rates and operate like a normal country
That would be nice, although getting there is going to hurt big-time. I'll believe it when I see it though. The BOJ's ability to deny reality has known no bounds.
An interesting corollary - if you accept Austrian theory, the other countries should inflate to replace the BOJ's deflation of the carry trade. According to Austrian theory, you can't balance out a past inflation with a deflation. The money supply needs to stay constant.
My basic assumption with that forecast is that the USD must depreciate to balance its current account, and so commodity prices in USD must rise
Caveats: A lot of the current account is due to credit inflows and will stop even without currency shifts. On PPP the US$ is reasonable. Also, real drops in commodities could outweigh currency effects. I'd say oil and coal are good long-term purchase though.
Fair Economist,
I do not for a minute expect the 88 JPY/USD to remain. The Japanese economy cannot adapt to that, as exporters like Sony and Toyota feel the pain the JPY will need to be inflated -- ergo they have domestic inflation, ego they eventually have to raise interest rates.
Once things get to settle to the long term trend based on real-world excessive sovereign debts, we'll see PPP follow. PPP is not a leading indicator, trade flows are
Dunno about inflating making the BOJ act normal again. The carry trade was driven by inflating the currency and holding down interest rates. I don't see why some domestic inflation will stop that.
What about Switzerland? I've read opinions suggesting the Swiss are in a precarious situation and that Phil Gramm (vice chair of UBS?) best not be going to his empoloyer's heimatland without a flak jacket.
Fair Economist,
That's the point, they were not inflating the currency. It was all sanitized by the carry trade. Without the carry trade to keep exports cheap, the economy gets into trouble too.
They will first have to inflate the currency to devalue the Yen (which won't be sanitized by the carry trade because there are no bets worth doubling risk from currency exposure), and then later have to raise interest rates to stabilize it around the time when the global economy begins to resume some normalcy.
There are a lot of pensioners in Japan and inflation makes them very angry.
One more USD chart, added a linear regression
It is not normal for currencies to appreciate 4% in a week. Before the linear regression gives you comfort, remember that national debt grew from 150% in 1980 to 350% in 2007. The only way that is serviceable is to devalue/inflate the US currency. Never mind the potential for equity markets plummeting, demand for exports falling, and the new debt the US is issuing
Did you like my rant? There's a lot more where the came from my friend.
As to how many illegal aliens there are...it's at least 12 million, but possibly anywhere between 12 to 20 million. THEY HAVEN'T BEEN COUNTED, AND THE GOVERNMENT DOESN'T WANT YOU TO KNOW HOW MANY ARE HERE! This is the #1 problem in this country, but it's getting zero attention in the election because both candidates are open borders candidates. They represent the interests of La Raza above the best interests of the naturalized American citizen worker. The whole election is a smoke screen- a scam to screw over the white man and give what he has earned to the non-white man. McCain is a sacrificial candidate...he was an underdog from the beginning when he was polling 8% and Romney was over 25%. It also happens that Romney was against illegal immigration...humm, maybe being a Mormon had nothing to do with it.
first?
Where's the Kaboom?
Oh noes!!!
First?
first
crash baby
oh well...fifth works.
What's the story behind the low volume in the markets today?
I really, really miss Kudlow & Company.
You could have been first if you were using: Mibbit IRC client widget
I'm tracking some financing deals there are being held up right now. If these deals complete that would be a good sign. Still no word.
It might be a blessing that those deals are being held up. They are likely to get cheaper, but that doesn't mean they will get better.
In a race to the bottom, the guy who skips the race wins.
it's called selective order processing.
Buy's outnumber sells if you ignore the sells.
I still think this closes below 8k today.....if not today...Monday.
Ciao
MS
IT'S MY CRASH AND I WANT IT NOW!!!
This market is like being pecked to death by a duck!
Nemo,
I really miss Abbey Joseph Cohen. Her market calls were 100% tradeable - in the opposite direction of course.
So now my BIG decision is whether to get the 60" plasma or go bigger!!
And I must give a BIG thanks to C, HIG and last but not least....QID and DRR.
Ciao
MS
I really miss Abbey Joseph Cohen. Her market calls were 100% tradeable - in the opposite direction of course.
Angry Saver | 10.24.08 - 2:09 pm | #
Heh. Is she still expecting 1600 on the S&P by year end? Seems that's been her target each year for the past several years.
MS writes:
it's called selective order processing.
Buy's outnumber sells if you ignore the sells.
I still think this closes below 8k today.....if not today...Monday.
Ciao
MS
MS | 10.24.08 - 2:08 pm | #
Explain further or link?
To file under you just can't make this sh!t up...
Keep Funding 401(k) Even Without Match, Planners Say (Update1)
By Jeff Plungis and Alexis Leondis
Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Employees should maintain contributions to 401(k) plans even if their company stops matching them, as General Motors Corp. did yesterday, financial planners say.
To save cash amid slumping sales, GM suspended payments to 401(k) plans for nonunion employees beginning Nov. 1.
There are immediate tax benefits in any 401(k) regardless of an employer match, said Rob Williams, a fee-only financial planner at Columbia, Maryland-based Baltimore-Washington Financial Advisors.
Employees cannot cut back,'' Williams said.If anything, contributions might have to go up. Assuming they pay 35 percent in state and federal taxes, for every $100 they put into the plan, it's reducing their taxes by $35. The money they lose from their budget is only $65.''
Keep Funding 401(k) Even Without Match, Planners Say (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
U.S. Dollar Currency Collapse Within 30 Days :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
Precious metals are going to explode.
There will be plenty of gold to buy at some price above 2k/ounce. The opportunity to lock in current prices is quickly coming to an end.
I will dance in the street(literally) if any comex officials are arrested. That's the rumor going around.
Bombs away
But we're O.K.
Bombs away
In old Bombay
Police - Bombs Away
U cannot keep hiding bad debts by creating more layers of debt.
All debt has to be paid back or defaulted.
Clearly Americans chose to walk away and default on their debt.
The unwinding is gonna take several years.
Lets focus on the disease and not just the symptoms.
CNBC is talking about positive Lunar cycles. Good Grief.
What a sham. People have been swindled. This is not over. The heavy hand of government is definitely going to prolong this train wreck.
Y3K is coming. We need more liquidity.
17 year locusts. We need more government spending.
What a sham.
Minor technical comment CR.
The TED spread is "noisy." Today's 2.70 versus yesterday's 2.58 is not better or worse. Perhaps a forward weighted 3 day MA? That would show flat to slightly better which IMO more accurately reflects the true state of affairs.
a pretty good paper by Jared Bernstein of EPI on unemployment/underemployment and how this downturn will effect wages. this presented today to congress.
178k pdf
http://www.epi.org/webfeatures/viewpoints/20081024_jb_testimony.pdf
Can the USG also gladly overpay for infrastructure projects as they are for TARP assets ? I mean, they'll be worth something too some day, right ?
"I want my PPT!!!!!"
(Sung to the '80s MTV commercial)
are you-
It's buried in a previous thread but I had a phonecall from a friend, longtime inst. trader and he told me that tons of sell orders are just being ignored. It is anecdotal and you have to take it FWIW however he has no reason to lie to me as I'm not a client. I trust what he says and I've known him for over 25 years first as a business contact then a friend.
Again FWIW.....
Ciao
MS
"...that tons of sell orders are just being ignored."
THats a pretty scary thought...
oh I forgot to add that I would also like to thank HOG, NFLX, SBUX and a raft of other painfully overvalued POS stock's too. I still retain core positions is all of them...profits are from trading positions only.
Sorry......I get one day of celebration.
Ciao
MS
Ok then, staying OT as always i'll try to keep score.
Iceland gone.
Russia and Argentina are toast.
Spain, Ukraine and the Baltics going down soon.
Feel free to add to the list.
It will all be OK if we can just stuff a few more levered yen into this market...one more hit and I'll be there, man!
Ireland
leFou-
not sure, but what about mexico? It doesnt look that solid to me right now, burning thru dollars to prop up the peso...
Mexico is the china of the western hemisphere...
ades-
You pretty much hit on today yesterday..that's what made me call him after I looked further into you original postulation. Volumes yesterday certainly told a tale. So did a few other things.
Hat tip to you for waking me up yesterday......
Ciao
MS
citizen energyecon --
Carry on.
Oops...the first $125 billion is all used up. Time for another shot.
how can a sell order be ignored?
isn;t there someone who put in the sell order who actually wants it executed?
or is just ht epump and dump - wait till a bit of a move up -then stop ignoring my order (but that's a limit or stop limit)
doesn;t make any sense that a market order could be ignored - I would fire my borker/get rid of him if I was aninstituional client if that occurred
C Beach:"No one wants to be the loser with old clothes, a walkman and looking for a public phone."
Beach - That was a great line and explains why this is a consumer dominated country. It would also make a great refrain/chorus in a song.
God bless you all but we are going down. They may have yelled "All Back Emergency" to the engine room but it was a little bit to late.
I was on the bridge of a deep sea tug when I heard that shouted out. We survived but it was close. Unlike the tug the USS America has already hit the coral. Those working down below don't stand much of a chance.
Damage control is going on and compartments are reported being sealed. It ain't going to matter.
Sharks are in water, and so are a lot us in the coming months.
MS --
I had a phonecall from a friend, longtime inst. trader and he told me that tons of sell orders are just being ignored
What do you mean? Who is placing sell orders, exactly, and who is ignoring them?
You mean individuals are calling their broker to say "get me out" and the brokers aren't doing it? Or what?
If this keeps up, I could become a deflationist.
sorry for my typos - damn phone
"Iceland gone.
Russia and Argentina are toast.
Spain, Ukraine and the Baltics going down soon."
They were talking about Hungary on NPR this morning not looking too good.
If this keeps up, I could become a deflationist.
As long as you're still head of the Church of the Sub-Genius.
Located a picture of Jas Jain ... see #9:
Redirect Notice
I can't explain it either...just as shocked as most of you are about it. I gather that the pit trader's have some sort of agreement when the shit hits the fans. This is for institutional trading only...can't speak to the electronic trade. But in any case you've got a system that is virtually hanging on for it's life on any given day so I discount nothing and surmise that if it is possible it can happen.
Ciao
MS
o offense MS - but it doesn't make sense
but maybe nothing does anymore
Looking at the new 52 week lows, the interim count is 1,129 out of the 3,480 issues on the NYSE...so 32.4% of all the stocks hit a new 52 week low today...so far.
boooooyah! mo cowbell!
Don't forget Pakista
Good to see all those bailout monies were well spent. Looks like they just disappeared into black holes as the banks horde cash in the face of deflation.
And GM. It was once a country with a proud tradition. Now it is just a little island like the UK in this big bad business world.
Business Week lists the unlucky 13 nations that could follow Iceland
into a melting collapse. In its nations at risk the list contains some
of the usual suspects but a few surprises-
Pakistan
Argentina
Serbia
Turkey
Indonesia
Philippines
Vietnam
Romania
Kazakhstan
Latvia
Hungary
South Korea
New Zealand
You mean individuals are calling their broker to say "get me out" and the brokers aren't doing it? Or what?
I think MS's friend is referring to one of two situations:
(1) a fund is getting tons of sell orders, but they either have enough cash now to meet redemptions, or have enough leeway in their prospectus to wait
or
(2) the orders are "not held". We used to use these all the time when we traded with floor brokers on the NYSE. It's shorthand for "you (the broker) are not held responsible for best execution, use your best judgement". So we'd call down and say "sell 50,000 IBM at 75 or above, not held". Which meant that if IBM traded over 75, maybe to 76, the broker may or may not fill you, if it thinks it will go higher, he'll wait.
Somewhat the opposite of "not held" for a floor broker is "I would", as in "I would do it all right there", so "sell 50,000 at 75 or higher, I would", says dump it as fast as you can over 75.
alybaba,
and lets not forget Turkey, which will make a major incursion into Iraq if they verge on systemic meltdown...great for distracting the domestic population.
USA is looking a bit shaky. Add to list.
New Zealand? Wow.
Circuit breaker net under the market gone for the day. Epic cliff dive into the close?
Well, one could definitely argue that the economies of both Mexico and China are dependent on US consumtion of crappy stuff.
Mexico is the china of the western hemisphere...
gio | 10.24.08 - 2:25 pm |
An interesting comment, but what separates Mexico from China where US trade is concerned is... the Pacific Ocean.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/101153/Inflation-vs.-Deflation-Let's-Call-the-Whole-Thing-Off?tickers=TLT,UUP,DIA,SPY,%5EDJI,UDN,%5EGSPC
Inflation a year from now?
MS: Could you repost the nades comment that you're referencing? I went looking but, well, its only a few thousand messages to sort through.
Let's bring this baby on home to where it all started this morning: DOW 8238
No job, losing your home or facing foreclosure.....get the loan you need using http://www.fakepaycheckstubs.com helping you help yourself!
Think outside the box and you can see how it is able to be accomplished. The markets are controlled by a smaller number of 'tutes than it was 7 months ago. I don't have any logical reasoning or thought process that allows me to have a better understanding of it but if the entire system is leveraged to "up" then it's not unreasonable to think that they will try anything to continue fighting for a broken business model.
Again I was just as aghast at what I heard too....but I wasn't all that surprised by it either.
ANd I am just the messenger of anecdotal information.
Think of it this way...the traders all know who is buying the SPX at 3pm onward...they just have it in there best interest to keep quiet about it. At some point they won't....
Remember I have placed a caveat on this from the start (a few threads ago).
Ciao
MS
"I really, really miss Kudlow & Company."
Not me. Kud can go blow.
When will the underclasses begin burning down the $5M and up McMansions? There are tons of them in Dallas.
GO, Mr. Market, GO!!!!!!!!
***********RANT!*********
The hardest thing to face about this market decline is the obvious fact of what poor losers they are on the down side. I've been a contrarian for a long time and took a lickin. But, I didn't complain. I took my feckin losses and kept on taking them on the redicilous upward speculation. A lot of times they didn't fill my low bids even though I was first in line at the open. They just didn't open....technical problems, they said.
Now they start to lose a bit and they go changing the rules. Reducing Interest rates, taxing income trusts....Manipulations galore from the Fed almost every week. No short selling. Direct buying of equity, trillions in bailouts and much more. Now they're buying everything with my tax dollars!
Feckin stop it and take your loss like a capitalist you woozie market weenies.
Respect the Free Market or it will never work properly again.
************ Rant Off *************
I'm willing to bet this hard, fleeting spikes are nothing but robotraders left on in an empty office.
Robotraders rule!
War is inflationary. The world is facing deflation, bad for the US. Ergo sum; war is coming.
My bet is we invade Canada and start a siege on the Mexico border. Make them think we'll invade but we'll really just be stopping mass migration from the US into Mexico. Picture that.
The Hawaiian Islands are also for sale to any Asian country willing to buy 30 yr T-bills. So far no takers but Taiwan is showing interest dependent on their deal for several US carrier groups plus crew. Several constitutional issues to work through but congress is reporting progress.
IMF Mulls Emergency Lending; Iceland Gets $2 Billion (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
The International Monetary Fund is considering an emergency program offering a group of member nations credit of as much as five times their quota contributions, and it agreed to a $2.1 billion loan for Iceland.
Rex Nutting.
I would seem a country-implodometer is going to be needed soon. Are those guys hanging around these parts of the internet?
Har, once again we have the masses heading off in the wrong direction.
BB will be running the presses night and day for the next couple of years as we fund all of the economy from huge deficits.
Watch the Yen, that is the trade that tells the beginning of a flight away from the dollar.
Oddly enough, since Japan has missed two decades of growth, they are due.
We have two decades of stagnation ahead.
And the loss of confidence in the dollar on deck.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Thanks for the insider baseball Eric.
What it sounds like is somethng we have seen all too often. Huge sell-off in closing minutes.
Hold on to your hats.
the long Bond is the LAST thing to short.ever.
$2.1 billion for Iceland is only a drop in the bucket. What do they owe now? $60 billion on a GDP of $20 billion?
Walrus steaks...mmm...yummy!
Robotraders. LOL.
Kind of reminds me of the line from Robocop: "I'll buy THAT for a dollar."
Maybe TARP can buy GS stock? Quietly to support the share price. That would solve this global fiat meltdown.
briwerk-
Well I'd be parsing through the same amount too. What he said was that there seems to be some epic move coming tomorrow based on what he observed on volume. All I did was "woke up" and looked at volumes and a few other things. I say "woke up" because this market has put me to sleep with the daily prognostications of it's death only to be resurrected by yet another stick save into the close.
It was a moment of clarity for myself...it was just his comment that made it happen.
Ciao
MS
MS: Thanks MS. Just thought you might have it readily available, but that is just as good. I did see that comment when looking for his post, but it was one line so I didn't think that was it. Doh.
How many more wars can we fight? Mish keeps banging the deflation drum, as in we are going down the Japan route, so how does his view square with 'inflation is nigh' prognostications? Someone with some insight, please explain.
that makes sense Eric...
At some point that won't work but I love it that they still have the mechanism to "protect clients"
Ciao
MS
Make them think we'll invade but we'll really just be stopping mass migration from the US into Mexico.
Not likely. Both Tijuana and Juarez are in a state of war, with dozens of executions going on every day.
"Feckin stop it and take your loss like a capitalist you woozie market weenies. "
They're not capitalists. They're bureaucrats in drag. The whole free market notion was always a propaganda shill. Right now they're showing their true face.
funny I just went tio check GS quote and typed in TARP
I like the daily update on short term credit crisis indicators, however, I suggest that you should also be looking at the spreads for HY and IG corporates at longer maturities where the ability of the Fed to affect these measures are far more limited. I feel that there's much more valuable information there.
Thank goodness I listed to Big Baby Jesus, aka the Ol' Dirt Dog, and moved all my investments over to Wu-Tang Financial:
YouTube -
Cash Rules Everything Around Me. CREAM.
Get the money. Dolla dolla bills yall!
People who sit in cash. Diversify. Next week.
digga, digga, digga......got to diversify your bonds.....
Ciao
MS
Shhhhhheeeeeit! I just solved one of the Edgar Allan Poe riddles of all time...from "The Facts in the Case of M. Valdemar" the M stands for Market!
MS
when you say he said volume who? and what was comment on volume?
It's almost 3PM. Do you know where your PPT is?
Comrade Peronista: Seems to me cash is getting more valuable right now. What would you suggest diversifying into and why?
volumes as in Index volumes. I took that to mean up/down volumes as well.
Nades-
I think I made you out to be a genius no?
Ciao
MS
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
Country singer Lorrie Morgan files for bankruptcy
Country singer Lorrie Morgan has filed for bankruptcy for primarily business related debts.
Morgan filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in federal court in Nashville, Tennessee, on Wednesday, listing her estimated liabilities ranging between $1 million to $10 million. The bankruptcy filing showed her with assets of $500,000 to $1 million.
The 49-year-old singer released a statement calling the bankruptcy "an unfortunate yet necessary part of the restructuring of my business."
In 1992, Morgan said she repaid her creditors in full and withdrew a bankruptcy petition after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, listing more than $846,000 in debts.
Her hits include "What Part of No" and "I Didn't Know My Own Strength."
What Part of NO don't you understand?
YouTube - Lorrie Morgan - What Part Of No
Not likely. Both Tijuana and Juarez are in a state of war, with dozens of executions going on every day.
merciless | 10.24.08 - 2:45 pm | #
Coming soon to a South West and Southern California city near you.
Private security is a growth industry, start your own private army and get rich quick. Prospectus will follow.
Deflation is a reduction in the money supply, no signs of that anywhere, on the contrary just the oppossite.
Falling prices in equities, housing, etc. with everyone rushing into USD is simply a relative preference for sellers vs. buyers.
Every transaction has a buyer, seller, debit, credit - the only one sided entry is when Fiat money is created.
Don't confuse deflation with the temporary excess demand for cash that is overwhelming even the red-hot printed presses.
When the unwashed masses realize this, expect hyper-infation, most likely much higher Precision Metals.
is there a place to look at those volumes?
If the correction of the Yeh/Euro chart is any indication, when the long bond goes it is going to go fast and hard (USD)
I agree with needing to put Mexico on the "watch list" for implosion. Oil, tourism and remittances are the three pillars of the economy and each is getting killed.
The best that can be said for Mexico is that is will continue to be able to do lower cost manufacturing. It might be able take some work back from China, but not until companies have the funds for the next round of factory building. Currently, some of the biggest employers in central Mexico are automakers- Ford, GM, VW- and their suppliers. So even manufacturing will be hit in the short term.
Lets just hope that its stays politically stable through this period.
Grinding,grinding and grinding...Who every has been left in charge is grinding it up hill and then lets it coast down hill...
This just in from the technical analysis guy: Inverted upsidedown limp penis formation now clear. Never been a better time to buy a home!
"Deflation is a reduction in the money supply, no signs of that anywhere, on the contrary just the oppossite."
Massive printing that is offset by massive debt destruction does not equate to inflationary printing.
Dont' get me wrong, at some point inflation will win out, but to say that there has been no reduction in the money supply is a bit of a stretch IMO.
most likely much higher Precision Metals
So I should go long surgical steel?
If Mexico implodes and sends masses of immigrants this way I wonder how the country will react given our own economic troubles.
JS writes:
If Mexico implodes and sends masses of immigrants this way I wonder how the country will react given our own economic troubles.
HaloScan.com - Comments
Diversity is perversity. Birds of a feather flock together. Legal immigration will not solve social security or the tax base. Try immigrating to countries like Switzerland or Denmark...nope. They actually protect jobs for their people, and it's sustainable. Imagine that? Were the 1950s really so bad? Immigrants think that coming to US is their God-given right...well, I hate to break it to them...IT AIN'T. If they want it, they need to stop acting like pussies and try to take it by force. And yes, I'm referring to Mexico for the most part. "La Raza" to be exact. Take your Spanish language and culture back to your own country and stop being pussies and stand up to your own government for a change, instead of expecting the United States to provide you with property ownership, defense, safety, laws, health care, food stamps, education, infrastructure, entitlements, etc. LEAVE NOW!
fred-
I can see them in my platform however you can get a basic view over at yahoo*
Advances & Declines - Yahoo! Finance
There math sucks..they can't seem to add simple numbers since about June.
Check from within your platform..gotta be something there.
Ciao
MS
I was just IMing with a friend about an hour ago, and I felt my "dream" situation would be to rally between 2pm and 3pm (up 50-200 points), which would set us up for a selling climax into the close. Part 1 complete. Go baby go!
New thread
Pissed Off, Could this happen in a year, though. Unlikely, I'd think. Why in God's name is everyone so uncertain about it? It is The Big Question if you are a saver sitting on cash.
These assinine intra-day rallies just mean more pain is ahead. You'd think the bulls would get that at some point.
Hey everybody!
My Chart of the Day
Japanese Monetary Base, all units in ¥ 100mn
Completely unadjusted, no log, no SA, no inflation adjustment
Hope this helps explain the underlying justification for the Yen appreciating. In that context the USD scares the crap out of me
Rally! PPT! Rah Rah Rah!
I've seen some reports that almost 150k mexi's a day go back. My mother inlaws boyfriend (legal from Sinaloa) pretty much backs that story up but puts the number at about 100k or so.
There is no work for them any longer...so they just go back. Remittances are down quite a bit too.
Wait until we have crops to be picked and no one willing to pick them. $7 for a head of lettuce is coming.
And here comes the stick save!!! Right on time. F!@# you can set a watch to it.
Ciao
MS
TGIF!
Alicia Keys and Jamie Foxx - Georgia On My Mind Live Grammy
YouTube - Alicia Keys and Jamie Foxx - Georgia On My Mind Live Grammy
PPT to the rescue.
Unbelievable how rigged this casino is.
Wait until we have crops to be picked and no one willing to pick them.
Does this mean that America won't be subjected to California's shitty "strawberries" any more (you know, the one that have 1 mm of red coating and are completely made of tasteless white core)?
If so... YAY.
Here in NY we get our strawberries the way Mother Nature intended... down on the farm, in June, and people who want real strawberries go pick their own.
total disconnect. The higher these end-of-day rallies go on Wall Street, the more the global markets tank. How long can this go on?
"the long Bond is the LAST thing to short.ever.
jus sayin"
Shorting The long bond will be the best trade going forward. Period.
So it appears the market is saying the other world markets are irrational?
Peronista,
Why is that? Are you expecting a Short term rally? Why?
People who sit in cash. Diversify. Next week.
Comrade Peronista | 10.24.08 - 2:48 pm | #
I've seen some reports that almost 150k mexi's a day go back.
Those are lousy reports because that rate annualizes to an improbable 54 million.
13 nations on Business Week's death watch? LOL. Try about 200 nations on BW's death watch.
Holy 10 year BOND!
On mexico-
The risks of a political melt down are fairly high. A certain segment sees the war on drugs (and it actually is a war down there) as the wrong strategy. Why try to kill your country's last best source of export profits?
Then you have the instability of the flood of workers returning from the US looking for work.
But don't worry about the strawberrys in the US. There will be plenty of $7 an hr. strawberry pickers in 2009. They'll be the guy who was getting $20 an hr. to install your granite last year.
Where is the stick?
Xenophobia is so unflattering, don't you think.
Back to the Japanese ¥en for one more moment
Here is Monetary base and components, all units in ¥100mn
Here is Same thing but only main components and using the natural log to make compounding growth into a linear function
What does this mean?
Assuming things remain in crisis mode and the Japanese current account declines to non-carry trade levels, we get 88 JPY/USD
This is why the Japanese central bank hasn't tried an intervention yet, it's still too far to cover the gap.
The Japanese Yen fell/appreciated to 91 JPY/USD overnight last night, but went back to 94.42.
Expect over the next week the Japanese Yen to return to ~90 JPY/USD, have the BoJ intervene and once that happens for American and European markets to have some light volume sideways days, followed by the bear market rally.
My no fun until after Hallowe'en bear market rally of 2008 could begin a couple of days early, but I still like that target as the market is not clearing out the carry-trade rot with conviction yet.
This year was about stalling credit growth and unwinding carry trades. Next year will be about declining earnings. 2010 will be about growth missing in action. That would bring an S&P500 with a 3 handle
It's not often someone can mention an 87 JPY/USD and a S&P500 in the three hundreds and draw no response...
testing 1... 2... 3...
EHP, those are astonishing numbers for the Yen monetary base. Why has the BOJ let it get so out of control? And why are they letting it plummet now?
Also, how do you get 88?
EHP, I think people are sulking about not getting their KABOOM today. I certainly was expecting one.
Its because there is nothing out of the realm of the plasible now.
The herd has moved on.
But 88 y/d has been in my head for a while.
Fair Economist,
The 88 was just a 'back of the envelope' extrapolation
Foreign markets producing good returns, carry trade comes in, JPY depreciates and CA increases proportionally
For the montetary base to fall in line with the Japanese domestic economy, it has to start tracking the bank notes in circulation. Basically the Yen at its bottom will have to go from a global currency to a domestic one.
So take the peak monetary base, which coincides with JPY/USD's peak, look at where the monetary base 'should be' and apply that same ratio to JPY/USD
If my expectations of a poor global economy do hold true, we should see some interesting things. JPY will be weak due to an economy dependent on the carry-trade to artificially depreciate the currency, yet commodity prices will be increasing -- Japan will have stagflation. This would cause the BoJ to finally raise rates and operate like a normal country
My basic assumption with that forecast is that the USD must depreciate to balance its current account, and so commodity prices in USD must rise and that will help them to be the premier investments over and above the depressed equity markets globally.
Why they let it get out of control?
Boosted exports = happy politicians
BoJ has never acted independently of politics.
Long term carry trades unwind, and no depreciation of the currency has happened. The downside is that exporting companies became dependent on the cheap yen that was sanitized from inflation by those using it to invest overseas.
For the montetary base to fall in line with the Japanese domestic economy, it has to start tracking the bank notes in circulation. Basically the Yen at its bottom will have to go from a global currency to a domestic one.
That would make sense. So the BOJ is deliberately canceling the carry trade, but keeping the domestic money supply constant. The deflationary pain is imposed on the rest of the world.
Japan will have stagflation. This would cause the BoJ to finally raise rates and operate like a normal country
That would be nice, although getting there is going to hurt big-time. I'll believe it when I see it though. The BOJ's ability to deny reality has known no bounds.
An interesting corollary - if you accept Austrian theory, the other countries should inflate to replace the BOJ's deflation of the carry trade. According to Austrian theory, you can't balance out a past inflation with a deflation. The money supply needs to stay constant.
My basic assumption with that forecast is that the USD must depreciate to balance its current account, and so commodity prices in USD must rise
Caveats: A lot of the current account is due to credit inflows and will stop even without currency shifts. On PPP the US$ is reasonable. Also, real drops in commodities could outweigh currency effects. I'd say oil and coal are good long-term purchase though.
Fair Economist,
I do not for a minute expect the 88 JPY/USD to remain. The Japanese economy cannot adapt to that, as exporters like Sony and Toyota feel the pain the JPY will need to be inflated -- ergo they have domestic inflation, ego they eventually have to raise interest rates.
Peak-
How many illegals (or legals FTM) do you think are in this country??
This is just in the last 3 months or so....we'll talk about that in a year
Ciao
MS
Fair Economist,
I would say that PPP is out of whack to the US's benefit.
St. Louis Fed: Series: DTWEXM, Trade Weighted Exchange Index: Major Currencies
Once things get to settle to the long term trend based on real-world excessive sovereign debts, we'll see PPP follow. PPP is not a leading indicator, trade flows are
[ANNIE]
The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
Bet your bottom dollar
That tomorrow
There'll be sun!
Just thinkin' about
Tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs,
And the sorrow
'Til there's none!
When I'm stuck a day
That's gray,
And lonely,
I just stick out my chin
And Grin,
And Say,
Oh!
The sun'll come out
Tomorrow
So ya gotta hang on
'Til tomorrow
Come what may
Tomorrow! Tomorrow!
I love ya Tomorrow!
You're always
A day
Away!
8,370.91 \t-320.34 \t(-3.69%)
the late "rally" faded fast
Dunno about inflating making the BOJ act normal again. The carry trade was driven by inflating the currency and holding down interest rates. I don't see why some domestic inflation will stop that.
How many illegals (or legals FTM) do you think are in this country??
10-12 million illegals. No idea about legal farmworkers.
the late "rally" faded fast
Who wants to be long over the weekend??
What about Switzerland? I've read opinions suggesting the Swiss are in a precarious situation and that Phil Gramm (vice chair of UBS?) best not be going to his empoloyer's heimatland without a flak jacket.
And if the Swiss banks are in trouble...
look out below...
Fair Economist,
That's the point, they were not inflating the currency. It was all sanitized by the carry trade. Without the carry trade to keep exports cheap, the economy gets into trouble too.
They will first have to inflate the currency to devalue the Yen (which won't be sanitized by the carry trade because there are no bets worth doubling risk from currency exposure), and then later have to raise interest rates to stabilize it around the time when the global economy begins to resume some normalcy.
There are a lot of pensioners in Japan and inflation makes them very angry.
One more USD chart, added a linear regression
It is not normal for currencies to appreciate 4% in a week. Before the linear regression gives you comfort, remember that national debt grew from 150% in 1980 to 350% in 2007. The only way that is serviceable is to devalue/inflate the US currency. Never mind the potential for equity markets plummeting, demand for exports falling, and the new debt the US is issuing
said chart,
http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/2815/picture3fg5.png
Byzantine_Ruins:
Did you like my rant? There's a lot more where the came from my friend.
As to how many illegal aliens there are...it's at least 12 million, but possibly anywhere between 12 to 20 million. THEY HAVEN'T BEEN COUNTED, AND THE GOVERNMENT DOESN'T WANT YOU TO KNOW HOW MANY ARE HERE! This is the #1 problem in this country, but it's getting zero attention in the election because both candidates are open borders candidates. They represent the interests of La Raza above the best interests of the naturalized American citizen worker. The whole election is a smoke screen- a scam to screw over the white man and give what he has earned to the non-white man. McCain is a sacrificial candidate...he was an underdog from the beginning when he was polling 8% and Romney was over 25%. It also happens that Romney was against illegal immigration...humm, maybe being a Mormon had nothing to do with it.
Credit Markets are a reverse ponzi scheme? Ruh Roh.