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What do you call it after you cliff-dive and then sort of sink to the bottom?
Because that is more where we are at this point, I think.
In Soviet Russia, 401k owns YOU !
intersting and not so reassuring article : Rbs slashing 16,000 staff - The Inquirer
Nemo writes:
"What do you call it after you cliff-dive and then sort of sink to the bottom?"
Nemosis?
The new long Model Portfolio - 40% cash, 20% Apple, 20% QQQQ and 20% Emerging Markets.
Nemo writes:
"What do you call it after you cliff-dive and then sort of sink to the bottom?"
supply side capitalism?
Yet it does not seem like it is effecting most peoples daily life. The flock is losing a few on the edges but the grazing is still good.
I heard some genius on the news today saying the rest of the world had to follow the US down, just maybe he had his facts inverted.
Ah... I had noticed that it has been a while since I heard the term "BRIC" on CNBC.
90% Cash 10% Very Speculative - compliments of Black Swa
It is going to be real hard to sell our exports to all these broke foreigners who can't get dollars or credit. Don't think we will hold up well for very long.
Who needs Smoot-Hawley anyway when you have a totally dysfunctional worldwide financial system. Trade will just stop and then we will just stop. End game.
psychodave,
"I'd bet its been cheaper to buy off their political masters than to directly suborn the civil servants."
Actually, they do. Oh, I'll admit that the politicians get the lions share. But a guy I went to school with, who is a economist with CA energy regulators, tells me that energy companies provide all sorts of nice conferences in posh places for them. It doesn't get reported so I can't link. Executives and other VIP's shmooze them, feed them, get them drunk.
Do you think guys like Paulson or Dimon would bat an eye at taking regs to a fancy dinner or 3? Those regs work for peanuts compared to those guys.
Nostrovia,
Nemo writes:
"What do you call it after you cliff-dive and then sort of sink to the bottom?"
Irrational exuberance, a big splash that makes waves, spinal cord injury, near instantaneous paralysis, and followed by death by drowning.
Sound familar? I call it the deflationary spiral dive. Best done in Mexico with tequila shots, followed by time with the local whores after surviving the near death experience and then eating the worm at the bottom of the bottle.
I guess we should feel fortunate?
We really don't know how low the Russian stock market is . Between manipulation, circuit breakers, lack of transparency, etc. they aren't a true market unlike our ... oh... wait. Nevermind.
Looking at world exchanges, I feel like I've stepped into some sort of Wal-Mart for equities...
"Low prices. Always"
Now, if we could just throw in the old "Blue Light Special" from K-Mart. As a kid, I'd follow it around for hours.
‘John McCain was never tortured in my jail’, says Tran Trong Duyet - Times Online
'John McCain was never tortured in my jail, says Tran Trong Duyet
Now, if we could just throw in the old "Blue Light Special" from K-Mart. As a kid, I'd follow it around for hours.
pie inflation
If there any long time Trader Joe's shoppers it is more like their old "Meteor Specials."
But how many can claim that their markets aren't any higher than they were in 97?
Nemo,
"What do you call it after you cliff-dive and then sort of sink to the bottom?"
n00b!
Nostrovia,
I think the US has a long way to go. There are valid economic purposes for stocks, but the way the US has been running them with 401ks, expectations of 8% growth, and a focus on capital gains, works out to be mostly a Ponzi scheme. Long term any investment class is capped by the overall growth of the economy - the promise that "stocks are where you go for long term gains" is another delusion of the Age of Delusion. We're going to have an entire generation that's seen stocks decline over the long term and naturally they will prefer bonds, driving stocks even lower.
FFDIC,
"'John McCain was never tortured in my jail, says Tran Trong Duyet"
His actions regarding release of info that would confirm or deny this, confirm this.
Nostrovia,
Anonymous writes:
The new long Model Portfolio - 40% cash, 20% Apple, 20% QQQQ and 20% Emerging Markets.
Gutsy call in these times, putting 20% into the maker of high priced adult toys.
dow jones down 37% since 12/31/08, and I daresay I expect it will be slightly lower by end of year
FE,
Yep. All kinds of pendulums swinging.
Also have a country which will have a class system. Not that it never did not have one. Just the differences are becoming more impenetrable.
For the common good, prima facie representation/implication that lower asset prices are bad is dishonest.
Price = value + mispricing.
If lower price is due to lower mispricing, it is good for the common good. And, to say the least, non-zero mispricing has been common, even though conperson-omitted -- for example, look here:
the 3 Fed Chair warnings, Real DJIA
FAIL!
(forgive my cheesy comment)
Rex Nutting.
FT.com / Markets - Overview: Recession concerns trigger equities turmoil
Overview: Recession concerns trigger equities turmoil
As the deflationary ramifications of the financial systems near-death experience ripple outwards from the worlds major banks, cyclically speaking, the global economy has entered a very dark valley,
The Global Banking System - the ultimate Rube Goldberg.
His actions regarding release of info that would confirm or deny this, confirm this.
Nostrovia,
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 10.24.08 - 9:56 pm | #
Well, he will be tortured - by Palin -if he wins!
Comrade Clueless Dufus --
Gutsy call in these times, putting 20% into the maker of high priced adult toys.
With $25/share in cash and no debt.
Apple can survive a very, very long time without any banks at all. Biggest risk factor is that it depends so heavily on one man.
There are many far worse horses to bet on at this juncture.
That said, I do not own them. But within a few months I might.
We are worse off than any country out there. In China and India, the poor and unemployed go back to the countryside or streets, and they cost the government nothing.
With "our" entitlement society, our obese unemployed go sit on a couch, each cheetos, and suck at the government teat. Lets see: we have decreasing government inflows (taxes) and increased outflows. We're f'd worse than anyone else.
If there any long time Trader Joe's shoppers it is more like their old "Meteor Specials."
Rob Dawg
They still seem to be doing a booming business around here, as does Whole Foods.
Someone mentioned Neiman Marcus a couple threads back. They are offering free shipping, double "In-Circle" points and a $25 GC when you spend $250, $50GC if $500 and so on. Austerity is the new black, dahlings.
FFDIC,
"Well, he will be tortured - by Palin -if he wins!"
I might enjoy that.
Nostrovia,
Ed, absolutely. A basic tenet of economics is that prices drive decisions, and must be accurate to produce the right decisions. But I almost never see anybody discussing stock prices in terms of whether they are priced properly, and even then it's often in the context of an argument from bad principles a la Dow 36,000.
The real question is not whether the stock markets in BRIC countries will sink even lower- they will.
The real question is whether the US can come out of recession without these countries improving first. Face it , we require new consumers and growth to keep the current system from collapsing irreversibly. The G7 just do not have the deomgraphic profile or new consumers to be an engine for real growth.
"'John McCain was never tortured in my jail, says Tran Trong Duyet"
Actually a true statement. The jail wasn't Duyet's property at the time.
I think we should have a constitutional amendment to eliminate the banking "oversight" committees in Congress.
I think we should have a constitutional amendment to eliminate the banking "oversight" committees in Congress.
sue | 10.24.08 - 10:07 pm | #
Fucking right sue!
I have zero sitting in cash . 90 % Short Toll Brothers %5 Short KBH 5% short Foot Locker . I've been up as much as 400% this year and down as much as 48% . Currently down about 15% . I had a problem getting out when I was ahead .
sue,
Yes a 'dumbbell' strategy - that caught my attention - hanging out more like 15%-20% but all 'house' money...
lucifer,
It's amazing our easy credit ways and highly leveraged shadow banking system artificially propped up all the developing countries around the world.
I say, it must be nearing time to be long instead of short for all I read are doom sayers. Has been one helluva party on the way down, but methinks I'll begin covering now, thank you.
Henry Waxman looks like a banker, he's a ferret or rat.
Fair Economist:
You get it.
You are dead on.
We are the generation who has been forced, for all the reason you have said, to overpay for stocks.
We will be the generation to cause the shunning of stocks by the next generation....who then and only then will be able to buy stocks at prices that make sense.
swampfella,
I think the magic number is 6500, 500 north of Bill Gross's famous Dow 6000 prediction.
Krugman in today's video has noticed that grain and soybean shipments have about halted -- between the poor quality harvest in the South after the hurricanes sitting waiting for a better crop to dilute it up to salable grade, and the lack of money to pay for the product and shipping at all stages, this is scary.
The world eats this stuff, or doesn't eat well at all. And it's not going where it should.
`Out of Control' CEOs Spurned Davos Warnings on Risk (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Tisk, tisk bad banker boyz...
`Out of Control' CEOs Spurned Davos Warnings on Risk (Update1)
The partying crept in,'' says Klaus Schwab, the 70-year- old WEF founder and executive chairman.We let it get out of control, and attention was taken away from the speed and complexity of how the world's challenges built up.''
We catered to what the financial leaders wanted: solo speaking slots, luxury hotels and VIP treatment we wouldn't afford anyone else,'' Steinberg, 38, says.We gave them a soapbox. It was all political. We try to minimize the politics, but can't.''
But the financial community didn't listen,'' Schwab says.They were told that any serious look at the economic fundamentals showed that we were in an unstable situation. It was denial, total psychological denial.''
``An exercise in moderation is something the private sector doesn't do very well,'' Browder says.
(The private sector would exercise excellent moderation in jail.)
Grain shipments stalled in credit drought
The credit crisis is spilling over into the grain industry as international buyers find themselves unable to come up with payment, forcing sellers to shoulder often substantial losses.
Before cargoes can be loaded at port, buyers typically must produce proof they are good for the money. But more deals are falling through as sellers decide they don't trust the financial institution named in the buyer's letter of credit, analysts said.
"There's all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit," said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. "The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy."
So far the problem is mostly being felt in U.S. and South American ports, but observers say it is only a matter of time before it hits Canada.
"We've got a nightmare in front of us and a lot of people are concerned it's going to get a lot worse," said Anthony Temple, a grain marketing expert based in Vancouver.
The port troubles occur as financial institutions worldwide experience an unprecedented level of failures; even the strongest global banks are taking shelter in government bailouts. Tuesday, the U.K was expected to invest as much as £45-billion ($87.01-billion) in three of the country's biggest banks, while the U.S. government rushed to put in place its US$700-billion rescue package for beleaguered financial market players. Ottawa has so far resisted pleas for direct financial aid for exporters.
Access to credit is key to the survival of maritime trade and insiders now say the supply is being severely restricted. More than 90% of the world's trade by volume goes by ship.
The Baltic Dry Goods Index, the main measure of shipping rates, is down 74% from its high back in May when trade with China was still strong.
So the U.S. consumer will be buying less imported crap at Walmart, while the rest of the world will be buying less U.S. exported...food.
Kind of puts things in perspective.
Our stock market has de-coupled from the rest of the world.
Do your best Beavis and Butthead voice and just start shouting "CONTAINED" over and over and then start that annoying laugh.... Lather, rinse, repeat! Its a lot of fun. And, oh yea, the chicks dig it at the bar! (From what I've heard)
......
Well, that is true, but without them consuming more the G7 are going to be in an interesting hole. On one side all pensions plans will collapse or become inadequate, deflation will cause mass unemployment and things could become unstable.
Note than 3 out of the 4 BRICS are bonafide nuclear weapon powers with a much lower value for life than G7 members. One controls energy in Europe, the other makes a lot of stuff you use and the last one has some peculiar social changes in the works.
Things could get more interesting than we would want to..
lucifer,
It's amazing our easy credit ways and highly leveraged shadow banking system artificially propped up all the developing countries around the world.
sue | 10.24.08 - 10:11 pm | #
The country with the least amount of chaos will come out as the victor.
lucifer says: deflation will cause mass unemployment and things could become unstable.
I'm rapidly becoming a deflationist too... This possibility scares the hell out of me... It will make it a long and drawn out ordeal....
Check out where your high tech stuff, cars, industrial chemicals, oil products, gasoline, pharmaceutical +agricultural chemical precursors come from.. Ohh.. and fertilizers too..
So the U.S. consumer will be buying less imported crap at Walmart, while the rest of the world will be buying less U.S. exported...food.
Kind of puts things in perspective.
Feckless Ness | 10.24.08 - 10:21 pm | #
Uh...huh huh huh..he said contained...uh, huh huh huh...
Nostrovia,
Frank envisions post-election stimulus from Democrats | SouthCoastToday.com
Barney Frank envisions post-election stimulus from Democrats
After the November election, Democrats will push for a second economic stimulus package that includes money for the states' stalled infrastructure projects, along with help paying for healthcare expenses, food stamps and extended unemployment benefits, U.S. Rep. Barney Frank said Thursday.
In a meeting with the editorial board of The Standard-Times, Rep. Frank, D-Mass., also called for a 25 percent cut in military spending, saying the Pentagon has to start choosing from its many weapons programs, and that upper-income taxpayers are going to see an increase in what they are asked to pay. The military cuts also mean getting out of Iraq sooner, he said.
lucifer,
We can make all that stuff here if we wanted.
We went through protectionism, deflation, lack of credit, frugality, monetary concentration, ideology based economics and mass unemployment once. It was called the great depression.. Do any of the "G7 firsters" wanna repeat that? The demographic profile in the 1930s was much better than it is now.
I'm rapidly becoming a deflationist too... This possibility scares the hell out of me... It will make it a long and drawn out ordeal....
nades | 10.24.08 - 10:24 pm | #
ades,
"I'm rapidly becoming a deflationist too... "
I'm gonna do a sham-wow style infomercial selling "How to be a Deflationist" tool kits.
These things sell themselves.
Nostrovia,
CR's earlier port story and the grain story above means I should start haircutting cargo plane values from here on.
ffdic,Why don't you just put an Obama sign in your yard and spare the rest of us.
The Baltic Dry Goods Index, the main measure of shipping rates, is down 74% from its high back in May when trade with China was still strong.
me | 10.24.08 - 10:19 pm | #
`Biggest Bubble of Them All' Is Globalization: Chart of the Day - Bloomberg.com
Biggest Bubble of Them All' Is Globalization: Chart of the Day
The Baltic Dry Index's drop from its peak just five months ago surpassed all of those, along with the Dow's 89 percent retreat from 1929 to 1932, according to Bespoke.
Barney Frank envisions post-election stimulus from Democrats
Is Barney going to stimulate all of us?
ReBear,
No just the hot males.
Nemo said:
Ah... I had noticed that it has been a while since I heard the term "BRIC" on CNBC.
As in "dropped like a...."?
ARW,
"ffdic,Why don't you just put an Obama sign in your yard and spare the rest of us."
Another friggin' n00b. Dude, FFDIC posts some great info articles. LEARN something from them you st00pid n00b.
Nostrovia,
Sue,
Of course you can. But you will first have to get rid of the EPA, NIMBYs, Lawyers, Current government contractors. You will have to build stuff and get people to relearn stuff. Ohh.. and you will require another FDR or better. And you will have to do it within a year.
We can make all that stuff here if we wanted.
sue | 10.24.08 - 10:29 pm | #
We almost started a hunger catastrophe 6 mths back, because we printed too much money.
Now we're threatening to do the same because we didn't let a few over-leveraged 'banks' go bankrupt.
Fiat monetary systems has always ended badly. So will this one.
My tinfoil is chafing. I'm beginning to think we are being set up for a bout of deflation such that we'll be begging for inflation just about the time it kicks in with a vengeance.
lucifer,
I guess I started a manufacturing company for those pharma chemicals a year early.
sue,
"No just the hot males."
In tears. LOL. Can't believe you commented that.
Nostrovia,
Nahh.. that was just IBs speculating to make up the money they lost in real estate related c**p. It did not work.
Comrade Peronista writes:
We almost started a hunger catastrophe 6 mths back, because we printed too much money.
Time for a deflation thread CR. Keep those Viagra jokes ah...coming..
REBear writes:
Barney Frank envisions post-election stimulus from Democrats
Is Barney going to stimulate all of us?
They don't have a choice. They just need to stay on message everyday for the next four years saying that due to the actions of the most inept world leader for at least a century, George Bush, we have no options. Bush has left us without options.
"Bush has left us without options."
They expired worthless.
Comrade,
Those options were expensed to the next generation.
ARW,
I have three yard signs but thanks for the tip. Here ya go:
General Election Polls: McCain vs. Obama
RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama
FFDIC writes:
Time for a deflation thread CR. Keep those Viagra jokes ah...coming..
Agreed. We're overdue for the weekly inflationist/deflationista smackdown. Although I've noticed lately that the deflationists seem to be getting the upper hand. Cthulhu figures articles like this one are driving the odds.
I welcome deflation. Gee, silver dimes and copper pennies again. And and 10 for a dollar bread at the day old store.
Right, deflation takes us back to 1965.
Oh, and my city, county and school district lower the ad valorem from 2.8% back to 1.6% and a new Chevy will go for $2,850.
Rent a life. Deflation is a myth of the nihlists.
We will get pain enough with hyper stagflation.
I don't understand people who go to generally bearish blogs (CR, Mish, Market Ticker) and then talk about how this must be the bottom because everyone is bearish/apocalyptic at that blog.
Good for you.. now tell me how you are gonna get every industry to do the same. While you are at it do factor rising healthcare costs.
The the US medical system does not deliver the quality of care other systems deliver (except to the rich), and it costs more. DO you also want to correct the market distortions caused by the healthcare and insurance lobby?
And please do not give me any BS about the US system is really better. It is not!! Our medical research and drug development systems are better than the rest of the world, but the delivery of healthcare is certainly not!
I guess I started a manufacturing company for those pharma chemicals a year early.
sue | 10.24.08 - 10:35 pm | #
History will bestow Bush with the ignominious title of worst president ever - and he'll never know.
Anon,
How do we know Barney is talking about fiscal stimulus?
On a business conference call this afternoon. Rather stark and pointed. The best line I wrote down word for word:
"You f*****g Americans have caused the world financials to collapse, may you rot in hell. I hope each and every country errects barriers to trade, commerce, and travel and every ideal you ever dreamt of"
Are you sure he is done?? I think he could f**k it up even more.
History will bestow Bush with the ignominious title of worst president ever - and he'll never know.
Speed | Homepage | 10.24.08 - 10:42 pm | #
Blame everyone else - we've exported that too.
FFDIC writes:
ARW,
I have three yard signs but thanks for the tip. Here ya go:
General Election Polls: McCain vs. Obama
http://www.realclearpolitics.com..._obama- 225.html
Polls. I don't believe in polls. Just because 16 polls say I'm going to lose to a black man, means nothing.
No.. their financial wizards also participated in this ponzi scheme.
"You f*****g Americans have caused the world financials to collapse, may you rot in hell. I hope each and every country errects barriers to trade, commerce, and travel and every ideal you ever dreamt of"
Barley | 10.24.08 - 10:43 pm | #
Barley,
Which country was that person from (who was telling you the US screwed up the rest of the world)?
He's done. He was done a year ago.
Banks' Unnerving Reserving - WSJ.com
WSJ
Banks' Unnerving Reserving
(Found this over at Financial Armageddon looking for some upbeat news.)
"energy companies provide all sorts of nice conferences in posh places for them . . . Nostrovia,"
Comrade Misean is Dope | Homepage | 10.24.08 - 9:46 pm
I take your point. Please know "energy companies" is a broad spectrum with many shades of gray. I've spent 10 years in exploration for 'em, another 10 in environmental lab analysis (soil & water analysis for listed toxic substances). Exxon and, to a lesser extent, Shell were always first class outfits, real sharp and real straightforward. They realized how wasteful it was to obfuscate and evade. The other companies ... not so much.
Btw, nice job fielding myself & other obnoxious commenters tonight. I've always thought you made the best late-Friday-night thread referee of the whole group ... when your drinking doesn't disagree with you [ducks&runs]
I don't understand people who go to generally bearish blogs (CR, Mish, Market Ticker) and then talk about how this must be the bottom because everyone is bearish/apocalyptic at that blog.
LOL. I suppose that's what you call an adverse selection bias. You know it's a bottom when there is bearish talk on CNBC.
"Which country was that person from"
Germany
"Which country was that person from (who was telling you the US screwed up the rest of the world)?"
patientrenter | 10.24.08 - 10:46 pm
Ditto what he said
Ross,
"Rent a life. Deflation is a myth of the nihlists."
LOL!
Let me tell a little story. When people make real things and they don't sell, the price declines until they do. If they fall far enough, they stop producing...so they no longer impact prices. Prices are falling right now...or did you miss the yahoo ticker on stocks.
The idea that the gov't prints money is false. The system wasn't set up that way.
Rent a clue...or do some research. Deleveraging is just another word for nothing left to inflate. It's also another word for deflation.
Nostrovia,
World War got us out of the last depression.
Invade Iceland, Greenland, Bahamas, Cuba, Antarctica and Equitorial Guinea.
Heck, we could win this war and provide "Lebensraum" for our illegal aliens!
Wonder how this will play out?
U.S. has plundered world wealth with dlr -China paper
Fri Oct 24, 2008 1:59am EDT
, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar's dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday.
The front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily said that Asian and European countries should banish the U.S. dollar from their direct trade relations for a start, relying only on their own currencies.
U.S. has plundered world wealth with dlr -China paper
| Reuters
I sincerely sense the comtempt felt. We are in new times...
Lucifer, yeah. I shorted that trend for 6 mths. I'm rich now. Welcome to the club.
The poor is the last to see the money. They want food. Deflation is good for the poor. We need more deflation.
I can't believe people still trust gov't and fed to do the right thing. They have no clue.
lucifer writes:
No.. their financial wizards also participated in this ponzi scheme.
Yes but, the US exported this to them. Greenspan said a few days ago in defense of MBS's " if we hadn't of securitized these and sold them all over the world, we'd be stuck with them all"
I'd call it "not pegged to the dollar"
diving...
bwahahahahah
long dollar and yen.
2 choices.
Treasury buys notes.
or Japan buys notes..
pick your poison.
I take both.
lucifer,
I agree with you, our medical research and drug development are better than the rest of the world.
As far as health care costs they are ridiculous, and here's my prediction, premiums go up yet again 5-7% per annum, businesses move employees to HSA accounts and policies with high deductibles. Employees stop going to the doctor because it now costs money out of their own pocket, demand for healthcare goes down and then prices go down.
For the current medicare generation (>65)-the vast majority of people who get sick we already have socialized medicine despite the rhetoric to the contrary, the gov't will eventually ration care.
The US has managed to not fall so far by borrowing more money from the future (i.e. future tax revenues) to offset the losses of quasi-money.
We can do this because the dollar is the global reserve currency. Even though we'll obviously never repay it.
We're in a phase of the meltdown that I had not given much thought, in my imaginings of how this would unfold. Where countries fall one by one. First Iceland. Was it an isolated case, or a harbinger? Nope, just the first of many. It will be apparently followed by:
Argentina, Hungary and Bulgaria and Romania, Russia, UK and Ireland, the Baltic and East European nations, Southeast Asia...
I suppose the US will be one of the last.
Surviving nations? Canada (maybe), Cuba, Nicaragua. Not many, at any rate.
psychodave,
"Btw, nice job fielding myself & other obnoxious commenters tonight. I've always thought you made the best late-Friday-night thread referee of the whole group ... when your drinking doesn't disagree with you [ducks&runs]"
Yes, I know. I do get trashed on fridays, But I appreciate that. And now I'm off to dinner, pool and staggering home...LOL.
Peace out.
Nostrovia,
If you believe a banker, you deserve to loose your money!!
Yes but, the US exported this to them. Greenspan said a few days ago in defense of MBS's " if we hadn't of securitized these and sold them all over the world, we'd be stuck with them all"
Anonymous | 10.24.08 - 10:49 pm | #
It must burn Germany to see the USD bitchslap the euro.
No one forced Germany to play our crooked game.
Because that is more where we are at this point, I think.
I think we're in the air, still screaming and praying. Kinda like this:
YouTube - Bugs Bunny-Falling Hare
Germany at least still has a manufacturing base and knows who lives where.
Misean said:
Rent a clue...or do some research.
I would joke that it is far cheaper to rent clues right now than it is to own them, but in fact they seem to be the one asset that has been woefully underproduced in the past 8 years.
Clue scarcity is how we got here in the first place.
sue,
US costs of healthcare are up 20% yoy 5 yrs going, better than a house.
a house of cards..
SAVE THE KRILL!!! WHALES THE USELSS
A euro is less than a dollar, well, next week maybe.
If I would have used the information provided by the mortgage salesmen at the picnic in August 2007 that she was not able to write mortgages because of the credit lockup and the fact that home buyers expected no money down no documentation loans and researched how the whole financial system was connected to it, maybe I could have made some prudent adjustements in the portfolio. I was not cognizant of the whole system's frailty pointed out by Taleb and Mandelbroit.
At least I was more conservative than the commonly recommended portfolio of the efficient frontier. Also no debt since 1998.
Continue riding the waves. Not sure about continuing the dollar cost averaging.
At least it's contained. Mars and Venus are still fine.
cracker,
Every hospital built a new wing over the last five years, probably with a bank loan, look out below.
German Maufacturing?
fund the baltics, and then we can talk. They already fund club-Med.
cmon people..... I need more.
Sue,
I am not sure that the present medical payment model can survive. I just do not see how we could keep on paying through a depression for inferior care.
The payments to hospitals, medical professionals and insurance companies has to drop to levels seen in other G7 countries. The good news is that a lot of healthcare can be made cheaper without loosing quality. Heck, we could improve the quality and outcome in most areas.
lawn grass..
I thought Aug 07, was peak sell it all...adn watch the meltdown?
Oh yeah, massive trade barriers. That's smart. They borrowed our corrupt banking practices and now they want to copy Smoot-Hawley? We'd be lucky if it only caused a worldwide depression.
Rob Dawg writes:
Oh yeah, massive trade barriers. That's smart. They borrowed our corrupt banking practices and now they want to copy Smoot-Hawley? We'd be lucky if it only caused a worldwide depression.
Rob Dawg
We reap what we sow
Greatest Investment Myths sold to you by Wall Street.
1) Historic Returns on the stock market
2) Dollar cost averaging
3) Diversification of Funds
4) Long term Investing
5) Investing by age bracket
6) 529 plans - that just help raise college tuitions
7) 401k - just subsidize stock investing
World: "We want our money back"
US: "Fuck you"
Mugabe haz the solution. Call him.
World: "We want our money back"
US: "Will you take another IOU?"
sue,
The best one i heard was "Portfolio for a recession".
US: "Fuck you"
Canadian watching with popcorn
okay
Canada - stop all shipments of oil and gas until payment rec'd
We have massive trade barriers now. Always have. Ever try to import lettuce in-season? Ever try to import labor not on "the list" like doctors or lawyers? Ever try to practice law or medicince with out government restrictions? There's many reasons you can't buy real pain killers at 7-11. If you could, the bad times wouldn't seem so bad.
US: "Will you take another IOU?"
Rob Dawg
Rob - I think the US is broke. Realy broke - ie no mo money
Barley,
What about 'preferred treasuries'?
The biggest one-
"We know what we are doing".
Though they may have thought this line was a easy sales pitch to steal other peoples money, the reality is that they did not know what they were doing- unintended consequences
sue writes:
Greatest Investment Myths sold to you by Wall Street.
1) Historic Returns on the stock market
2) Dollar cost averaging
3) Diversification of Funds
4) Long term Investing
5) Investing by age bracket
6) 529 plans - that just help raise college tuitions
7) 401k - just subsidize stock investing
well it took forever
but the mainstream press finally realizes the real crisis: currencies
SOME CURRENCIES PLUNGE AS STOCKS SINK WORLDWIDE - NY Times
in terms of scale
currencies are the milky way
credit markets are the earth
equities markets are new york city
if currencies fail, doesn't really matter what else happens
if the milky way goes kaboom - does it matter what the best new lounge in NYC is?
lucifer,
I agree it entirely fixable, but the health care industry is going to battle it the whole way down. It is going to have to change because businesses can't absorb these increases with sales and profit margins decreasing. In addition, states can't afford the payments either.
Yes- the quality can be improved as well.
Yes, If you thought regulating banksters is hard, you ain't seen nothing yet.
__
I agree it entirely fixable, but the health care industry is going to battle it the whole way down.
Canadian watching with popcorn writes:
World: "We want our money back"
US: "Fuck you"
More like
World: We want our money back.
US: We already sent it to you years ago. Can we borrow a dollar to buy something off you?
@ monta's ankle | 10.24.08 - 11:05 pm
Have mercy, I beg you. I haven't yet recovered from "Eventually the bobo doll deflates and the bear [market] gets bored."
But money is not real..
World: We want our money back.
US: We already sent it to you years ago. Can we borrow a dollar to buy something off you?
Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 10.24.08 - 11:07 pm | #
Staffing Larry's Kudlow throat with green notes " How do you like "King dollar" now , Larry, ah ? ah?! " Really, beware what are you wishing for...
Germany will be speaking turkish soon enough. They're hardly one's to talk smack.
What about 'preferred treasuries'?
REBear
Yup gots stock and getting a yield..to who?
Never forget that countries can exercise their domestic rights - got stock in Bank A who has 22% of their ops in Country Y who decides to nationalize the operations...
What if China said okay and proceeded to say that no more money will be converted to USDs...pay dividends in local currency and that this may never leave the coutry...
the search for what is money will continue, until money is not important.
global socialism has a price, and its callled__________________?
what the price of me and my family, and country, and beliefs and expectations......?
the worlds not for wussies.
Life is hard.
lucifer writes:
But money is not real..
Spoon or no spoon, it is as it is.
Rob - I think the US is broke. Realy broke - ie no mo money - Barley
We sing the post-American century song pretty good here but when it comes to serious time the US is still a manufacturing, technology, innovation powerhouse. We've gotten soft but a bout of tough times and its my guess that we'd prove extremely resilient and far more capable of making do with "them" than vice versa.
psychodave - i posted that earlier today then got super busy at work - didn't think anyone actually read it
but it is true - after all, that whooshing sound doesn't happen in this sort of environment - bottoms are rarely so easy and obvious...
the number of interventions and size scale and timing of them is making it impossible to know what will happen next
interestingly, the fed and tresury are having the same problem as individual investors - they are worried that they won't keep enough powder dry, so they will have to choose when and where to intervene - very difficult when all new york city, the earth and the milky way all need to be saved...
Money has meaning only if you can buy wealth with it. Most people confuse money and wealth.
Spoon or no spoon, it is as it is.
Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 10.24.08 - 11:12 pm | #
Rob:
I agree totally.
USA has vast capability lying idle. The problem isn't that we can't make stuff, it's whose going to buy all the stuff we can make?
"comes to serious time the US is still a manufacturing, technology, innovation powerhouse"
some would say yesterday's news....go away and take that page in history
1) Historic Returns on the stock market
2) Dollar cost averaging
3) Diversification of Funds
4) Long term Investing
5) Investing by age bracket
6) 529 plans - that just help raise college tuitions
7) 401k - just subsidize stock investing
Stock options align the interests of management with that of the shareholders.
We don't pay dividends because capital gains simply incorporate retained earnings but with the benefit of deferred taxation.
The accumulation of leverage incentivizes management to be efficient because debt must get repaid, as opposed to dividend.
My corporate finance law textbooks go on and with these fallacies; it wouldn't be so pathetic, except the courts have bought these excuses hook, line, and sinker as defenses under the business judgment rule, in the unlikely event that the shareholders actually sue.
On 30 September 2008, the total U.S. federal debt passed the $10 trillion mark, for the first time[2], with about $32,895 per capita (that is, per U.S. resident). Of this amount, debt held by the public was roughly $5.3 trillion.[3] Adding unfunded Medicaid, Social Security, Medicare, and similar obligations, this figure rises to a total of $59.1 trillion, or $516,348 per household
Of this amount, debt held by the public was roughly $5.3 trillion.[3] Adding unfunded Medicaid, Social Security, Medicare, and similar obligations, this figure rises to a total of $59.1 trillion, or $516,348 per household
And what if the world said NO.
No more debt.
Would we fund it ourselves? Give up 92% of our take home pay to make the grease, to make the system move along?
China, Japan and the UK better toe the line:Foreign owners of US Treasury Securities (July 2008)
Nation billions of dollars percentage
Japan 593.4 22.17%
Mainland China 518.7 19.38%
United Kingdom 290.8 10.87%
pay your debts.
or you cant borrow money.
if you borrow to pay debt.
you get thrown under the bus...
seems simple.
But at about 2 p.m., stocks started rallying, and by 3 p.m., the Dow was down by just 100 points for the day. It was unclear what was fueling the rally...
--NY Times (Monta's ankle link above)
LOL. Not unclear to us paranoiacs on CR. We've seen the invisible hand of the PPT at work often enough.
Anon,
$130,000 per household- from credit bubble to debt bubble.
Adding unfunded Medicaid, Social Security, Medicare, and similar obligations, this figure rises to a total of $59.1 trillion, or $516,348 per household
I wish Medicare and SSI would give you the lottery option. Instead of a stream of liabilities, they should give people the option to collect a lump sum when they turn 65.
How many people would rather burn the cash on hookers and booze in a blaze of glory than 300K in chemo?
Who might serve as Treasury secretary?
Who might serve as Treasury secretary? - Victoria McGrane and Lisa Lerer - POLITICO.com
Barley writes:
Of this amount, debt held by the public was roughly $5.3 trillion.[3] Adding unfunded Medicaid, Social Security, Medicare, and similar obligations, this figure rises to a total of $59.1 trillion, or $516,348 per household
Not sure but, I think those figures are extrapolated over the next 75 years
Stock options align the interests of management with that of the shareholders.
This line always cracks me up.
some would say yesterday's news....go away and take that page in history - Barley
Ummm you are typing on a... connected to a what... full of chips designed where?
Barley, not quite sure what you're trying to say...
This is what I say: with motivation and leadership, US population blows the rest of the world away in productivity. Absolutely.
The danger we face is two-fold: folks like my hard working father not baing able to retire, and just saying screw it, and finding a market for what we make.
Basel Too,
Thanks for the additions to the financial fallacy list, please add
1) We are well capitalized
2) We don't need to raise money
3) Any sports analogy somehow linked with finance
sue writes:
Greatest Investment Myths sold to you by Wall Street.
I would add:
-can't pick tops
-can't pick bottoms
Not sure but, I think those figures are extrapolated over the next 75 years...
Uh, I don't have the cash right now. Can we extend the loan for one more generation?
I'm rapidly becoming a deflationist too... This possibility scares the hell out of me... It will make it a long and drawn out ordeal....
nades
It will be long and drawn out. I've been in the deflation camp too. But then we'll go into hyper inflation. Maybe 18 months to 24 months of deflation then hyper inflation.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Misean,
Agree to disagree.
Deleverging, deflation, disinflation are terms fraught with misconnotations as is inflation.
All I know is my fiat buck buys less and less each year. Not talking about house price declines from levels they should never have approached. Hell, we didn't even have deflation for very long in the depression. It was forced liquidation like today.
GDP = MV. The V was lacking in the 30's but caught up pretty quick. Going from $20 to $35 to the ounce seems like an increase in the money supply to me.
Pardon me but I cannot think of a year when anyone bargained for less salary on the premise that my living costs have declined.
Hayek's 'Road to Serfdom' is pretty explicit. He argued that Government spending as a % of GDP in excess of 40% was confiscatory and leads to more and more inflation. By Government he aggregated ALL government.
My Grandmother had these funny wooden printed tokens that the kids played with along with spools and matchboxes in the toy box. They were called mils. One tenth of a penny. That's what they payed sales tax with in the 40's.
with motivation and leadership, US population blows the rest of the world away in productivity. Absolutely...
--Chill Bear Dope
I've worked in the real world for a long, long time. Very few under 35 have either motivation or leadership skills. The ones who do are almost invariably foreign-born.
"Chill Bear Dope writes:
Barley, not quite sure what you're trying to say..."
I'm not sure either...On the one hand disgust on who we are and that the world owes us a standard of living beyond all else, or a sense of humainty where we practice what we preach to the world
Being told the F off on a conference call because I hail form the US is just as disturbing as understanding that I need the awhole to get the job done...
What have we become.
BTW, in my opinion massive bond defaults on Tuesday - "why counter w/ a crook"?
c&c - yup a bad day
Barley,
What bonds are you referring to.
Check my PC, nope, not one piece says made in USA.
Call it the Princess Bride Takedown. America induces a worldwide financial collapse that it knows it and it alone can survive. Pull out and what does the USA find itself with? Instant Global Empire.
Simple. Effective.
Praise the fucking lord.
The other biggest lie "Risk can be modelled and managed with mathematical models"
"Don't try to time the market".
I can print the list and give it to my 5 and 7 year old, when you get older and do something stupid like visit a financial planner beware the following buzz words.
Great one Captai
you too Lucifer!
Also, beware fed chairman using words like conundrum, frothy, irrational exuberance and resilient.
Rob Dawg,
"We are all deflated now." My phrase sometime ago when as posted as Deflationary Joe.
I will state again: we are in a deflationary spiral and Ben and Hank ain't got enough spare undies to get through the year without developing a bad rash & funny walk.
I tell you this market is bad. It's worse than a divorce. You lose 50 percent of your net worth, but you still keep the wife.
Barley, US takes a lot of heat because we're willing to take it. We want everyone to like us. We want to the be "the Good Guys."
The rest of the world sneers at this perception of "weakness."
when larry kudlow starts selling mustard seeds, it's time to buy
Check my PC, nope, not one piece says made in USA. - Canadian watching with popcorn
I want the two minutes I'm about to waste explaining it to you back. Of course hardly any of the "stuff" is made in the US. We've got entire nations willing to bend over to make it for us just to get the chance to rub up against what's really important in the hopes that some of it rubs off.
On the one hand disgust on who we are and that the world owes us a standard of living beyond all else, or a sense of humainty where we practice what we preach to the world
At lunch today, I had to explain Bretton Woods II to my congressional staffer friend.
Ronald Reagan described America as the "city upon the hill", with the eyes of the world upon us. And so, there we were in our opulence, with the rest of the world making us ipods and toyotas, as we dropped george washingtons upon our little serfs, telling them the should be thankful for the little pieces of paper they gave us. Even better, we convinced to loan those bills back to us for "safe keeping." Heck, we'd even pay them interest back on it.
For decades, the world went along with this bargain. Japan needed us because of Red China, and Europe from the Russian bear.
today? not so much...
SOME CURRENCIES PLUNGE AS STOCKS SINK WORLDWIDE - NY Times
Currencies Fall as Fears Spread and Stocks Slip
"This is a panic in the way of the fine 19th-century panics, where we all run around like headless chickens, said R. Jeremy Grantham, chairman of the Boston-based investment firm GMO, who had predicted stocks would tumble. I have been in the business for 40 years, and I have never seen anything like this.
"Can't time the market"
Definitely a fallacy.
The market can be timed, on many scales. Even correctly! I certainly timed it correctly going to cash in October 2007.
Check my PC, nope, not one piece says made in USA.
Fabbed abroad, surely. Too expensive to contantly build and rebuild clean rooms here.
Common knowledge can be a dangerous precept.
After WWII everyone knew that we would have another depression/deflation. During such times it was necessary to get out of debt and have enough cash a hopefully a job to care for your family.
Along came the GI Bill and the Marshal plan. It wasn't til 48-50 that people wanted to borrow again to improve their lives.
We now have an international Marshal plan for each other and when it gains traction, God help us.
Aluminum, plastic or wood coins are in our future. Digits instead of paper dollars.
Finance is an illusion.
Chill Bear Dope writes:
The rest of the work expects us to be the good guys. If anyone is angry at us, it's because we failed to meet their expectation.
But the very fact that they expect it means something.
Misean, I agree with Ross.
Deflation is the normal course of events in an economy, and has been for couple thousand years. Prices drop due to improved technologies, familiarity of process, scaled-up production, competition, and so on.
The modern idea that inflation is somehow normal is errant nonsense.
IOW, overall prices should have been falling for the last century. So even if prices had stayed constant, there would have been inflation at work. Inflation is much worse than even shadowstats says, because it should be negative by at least a percent or two.
Perhaps those artificial inflationary forces are now being temporarily outweighed by collapses in asset prices. But inflation is still the underlying dynamic.
Sue, just to add to your Greatest Investment Myths sold to you by Wall Street.
8) The dividend will support the stock price
9) Buy and hold (especially an index fund)
10) Efficient Frontier
11) It's a one decision stock
12) The US has decoupled (not to be confused with coitus interuptess)
13) Cash is trash
14) Falling oil prices are positive for the stock market
15) Buy the dips
16) The value is compelling
No one forced Germany to play our crooked game
The credit cycle is a tragedy of the commons. Even non-participants are impacted. Rising real estate and commodity prices affect all people.
Americans will suffer a lot of pain when they learn who they really are.
The rest of the world already knows. I'd like to think the US will recover back to a decent country but the signs are few. US economy is driven by catering to ego, so there's lots of ego gratification but not much reflection or perception yet.
I must admit that I am confused as the next guy. All the bailout money ( now extended to insurers) and all the money guarantees now stand at over 3 trillion dollars, yet the dollar is rising. I get that a currency is based on a belief that tax collection will cover the bonds, but all are gambling on 2 things:
1)Americans keep paying taxes and vote to keep them
2.) They have any money to pay them.
Alas, I have rock blogging tonite with the unreal moving Bette Midler song "The Rose" if any are interested.
Baca writes:
Sue, just to add to your Greatest Investment Myths sold to you by Wall Street
It's priced i
The rest of the work expects us to be the good guys. If anyone is angry at us, it's because we failed to meet their expectation.
Too much exceptionalism -- no respect for the rule of law, human rights, the free market or any of the other virtues we professed when it got inconvenient to practice what we preached.
I don't see a problem that dividing the number of Republican loyalists remaining in America by the number of lamp posts can't solve.
anya, which is precisely why I want the perps to see jail time. Lots of jail time.
"...said R. Jeremy Grantham, chairman of the Boston-based investment firm GMO, who had predicted stocks would tumble. I have been in the business for 40 years, and I have never seen anything like this.
Just did not want to admit his first name is Ron and, oh yes, he has seen THINGS like this.
Alas, I have rock blogging tonite with the unreal moving Bette Midler song "The Rose" if any are interested.
"the unreal moving Bette Midler song "The Rose"
Put down the pipe
EHP and the gang.
ok, buzzed quick update on cocktails with Citi honcho's. i've a 40hr party event in the morn.
NYC Decompression 2009: Eschaton: The Final 3,000
IT, yes, upgrading but not a major overhaul.
Pandit, confidence in skillz, not in old boy network, fear in the latter.
mark to market, they say their reports show 60 cents on the dollar for all (?! can some one verify from their reports?). let the auditor's sort it out years from now. screw level 2 and 3 and the FASB. uncle sucker will cover.
they are moving to shore up and deal with the credit card base of the company. moving folks from abs to that area.
SO PISSED about the wachovia(jeez wamu, i can't remember from the fog of martini's) fdic ripoff.
they think it will be GS not JPM to eat them, can't believe their share price is so devalued.
i scared them about current world insolvency and a crashing bond market. based on my rep of conversations with them years ago about the melt of highly leveraged derivatives now coming true.
denial and ad hoc stop gap is their mantra still.
'night.
Chill Bear ,,, What bonds are crashing Tuesday ??? Please enlighten me
BR: the Republicans have sold their constituents a very bad bill of goods. I hope the party expires.
credit, that wasn't me. I dn't know crap abotu bonds.
Updated list, thanks for all the additions.
1) Historic Returns on the stock market
2) Dollar cost averaging
3) Diversification of Funds
4) Long term Investing
5) Investing by age bracket
6) 529 plans - that just help raise college tuitions
7) 401k - just subsidize stock investing
8) The dividend will support the stock price
9) Buy and hold (especially an index fund)
10) Efficient Frontier
11) It's a one decision stock
12) The US has decoupled (not to be confused with coitus interuptess)
13) Cash is trash
14) Falling oil prices are positive for the stock market
15) Buy the dips
16) The value is compelling
17) can't pick tops
18) can't pick bottoms
19) Stock options align the interests of management with that of the shareholders.
20) Risk can be modelled and managed with mathematical models"
21)"Don't try to time the market".
Currencies Fall as Fears Spread and Stocks Slip
The stupidity of banking regulators cracks me up every day.
Foreign currency and OECD debt are assigned a risk rating of zero...
unirealist The modern idea that inflation is somehow normal is errant nonsense
We must read the same books.
The credit cycle is real. Paulson's actions are a form of insanty. When I saw the new downwave forming in Asia last night, I drove down to the "13 Coins" THE all-night restaurant in Seattle and had dessert while I pondered events.
I was up most of the morning and suddenly, today, I realized that three spheres exist. It's actually a gradient but for discussion purposes we'll call it three spheres.
1) The Common - most people live here, the culture values & beliefs tnat drive behavior but are virtually unquestioned.
2) The Illusion - people like Paulson and Buffett live here. They're outside the primary illusion and can predict and manipulate The Common to a small degree. This is why they are rich.
3) The Real - People like Ghandi live here. They understand The Common and they understand the Illusionists. They don't make money because they're either not driven to be rich or they're too far removed from the immediacy of The Illusion. But they understand the foundational structure enough to effect significant change.
50 Paulsons are not equal to one Ghandi. I saw this clearly today. Paulson confused money with many other things which it is not. Likewise Greenspan and Bernanke.
This is why they make mistakes which are very clear to The Common and The Real spheres.
As Yard Sales Boom in Hard Times, Sentiment Is First Thing to Go - NY Times
Yard Sales Boom, and Sentiment Is First Thing to Go
MANTECA, Calif. As the classified ads put it, everything must go. Socks. Christmas ornaments. Microwave ovens. Three-year-old Marita Duartes tricycle was sold by her mother, Beatriz, to a stranger for $3 even as her daughter was riding it.
BR: the Republicans have sold their constituents a very bad bill of goods. I hope the party expires.
As someone who remains a conservative but will never again be a Republican, anyone left at this point is a hopelessly deluded enemy of the Republic.
If the country got the political will to rid itself of their blight, I would be first among the sans culottes.
yes- "it's all priced in" the classic that is missing from list.
Broward Horne:
I was up most of the morning and suddenly, today, I realized that three spheres exist. It's actually a gradient but for discussion purposes we'll call it three spheres.
Origin of Five-Percent title
Five Percenters also teach that Black people specifically, and the entire world population more generally, can be divided into three groups:
* The 85%, easily led in the wrong direction hard to be led in the right direction, who are the humble masses, mentally deaf, dumb, and blind to the truth about themselves and the world in which they live.
* The 10%, who understand much of the truth but use it to their advantage to keep the 85% under their control through religion, politics, entertainment, economics, and other
methods.
* The 5%, who are the enlightened divine beings, the poor righteous teachers, having repossessed knowledge of the truth regarding the foundations of life and of oneself, and seek to liberate the 85% through education.
BR:
Lot of deluded people. My parents are convinced that most of this "bad economy" is a liberal media plot.
Regarding paying for hospitals and bond failures. Alot of hospitals are financed with bonds, munis i think(?).
I dont know about them failing on tuesday but a few years from now they could be in some serious pain. I'm not even sure if the debt is actually secured by the physical hospital....
23) Home equity is dead money.
Byzantine_Ruins,
I am personally offended that you would refer those Likely Lamppost / Guillotine Decorations as "republicans".
Those people are not Republicans.
sue-
not from wall street per se, but can be used in ANY context:
It depends on what the meaning of the words 'is' is.
On the plane ride last week I saw the movie Cinderella Man. Rob's comment of "Home equity is dead money" basically solidifies the thought I kept having. We might need a depression to correct the american ethos... or what's left of it...
dr munch:
The ones eating cheetos are called Government employees' enjoying their defined benefit, COLA adjusted, pensions.
More delusion, from Minyanville:
"We must find effective ways to limit the damage of the housing markets collapse without endangering the eventual recovery of one of America's most essential markets."
This writer doesn't understand that the damage was done on the way UP. And that the fastest way to recover is to leave it alone.
One more to add to the list:
25) It's rated triple A by Moody's!
I'll have to do another update soon.
sue et al biggest myth is that stock market returns will continue an upward trend through depressions and deflations in the future. We cannot know what the future brings
Sue
I like your list. When I hear em I want to strangle em. Another list would be the explanations for that day's market movement. 99.999% of the time it's pure rubbish.
This is precious, and falls right into Browards comment:
"The No. 1 issue that keeps bankers and financial professionals awake at night is a lack of strategy - or, as Duncan put it, a "business model identity crisis" -- according to nearly 80% of board and C-level executives. "They don't know what they want to be when they grow up," Duncan said."
From marketwatch: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/problem-banks-even-bigger-you/story.aspx?guid={8895813B-7514-4043-A3AA-2A183631D72D}&ref=patrick.net
they think it will be GS not JPM to eat them, can't believe their share price is so devalued.
Damn it, drunk alan greenspend...
Are you saying that C is going to be acquired by GS or JPM?
In the spirit of American entrepreneurial zeal, I implant a kaleidoscope inside my magic 8 ball. I then ask questions like: where is the bottom? The answer comes back in multicolored collages of triangles, rectangles, half moons and stars. Running the code through propriety encryption technology the answers reveals itself as being: at what point? I hate it when questions get answered by questions.
U.S. has plundered world wealth with dlr -China paper
| Reuters
U.S. has plundered world wealth with dollar -China paper
BEIJING, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar's dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday.
The front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily said that Asian and European countries should banish the U.S. dollar from their direct trade relations for a start, relying only on their own currencies.
Now from a entrepreneurial point of view, I'll have some poster's and t-shirts made - send them to Bloomberg, CNBC, US Treasury, FDIC and the SEC for a promotional stunt.
FFDIC:
They should be very careful what they wish for... that would hurt us less than they think. Much less.
sue,
I remember 4 years ago when the guy from Wach came in to our office to tell us about mutual funds and 401Ks. Our company used them. He showed us these graphs of stocks and bonds and how they kept going up.
Of course one of his charts showed bonds smoking stocks over the last 20 years or so maybe it was even thirty.
He was trying to explain that stocks were better for younger people and had to quickly discount the graph he had up on the projector. He said that time frame was an anomaly.
Seeing as most of the indexes are negative for the last ten years its no wonder people are now planning on working till they're 80!
Byzantine_Ruins,
I am personally offended that you would refer those Likely Lamppost / Guillotine Decorations as "republicans".
Those people are not Republicans.
I call them the "neo-boers" when I talk to them, 'cause that's what they are -- racists and religious bigots in the South African model.
I'm afraid they've hijacked the party apparatus, however, thanks to its now-total reliance on the Southern Strategy, and I don't really see any prospect for reform with the jihadi-like levels of deliberately ignorant intolerance. The namespace is too tainted to be worth anything in any case.
IMO, it's really better to just cut off all connection with them. It's more efficient to found something new in the image of the universalist Liberal Democratic Republic than to try to educate the willfully ignorant. That way the quality of the conservative movement can be skimmed off, and the only question of how to deal with the bitter-ender evangelicals and royalists is if they have to be broken up and disposed of or if they can be held at arm's length and ostracized until they age out of existence.
This writer doesn't understand that the damage was done on the way UP
True. One problem is high real estate prices, not vice versa.
I am baffled why Bernanke and Greenspan don't seem to know this. There's a ton of historical precedent. Eventually the rentier class destroys the real economy by demanding that imaginary promises be fulfilled.
I had one of those idiots from Putnam come in and do the same pitch at my prior job.
"What do you call it after you cliff-dive and then sort of sink to the bottom?"
A factfinding mission?
Chill Bear Dope,
I agree. What would that do the RMBY talk about an appreciating currency. It would completely cripple their exports.
Sue it looks my myth was a bit more descriptive than your number one. No plagiarism intended.
BEIJING, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar's dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday.
Oh yeah. The one thing that worries the pan asian nations more than US dollar hegemony is China denominated trade conduits. This is not a game the Chicomms even want to play. They surely cannot win.
Broward, their emotional identity is tightly coupled to economic models that defy common sense.
Economists of all stripes seem to forget that their are only 24 hours in a day, and we get only so much sunshine. We borrow ahead on that budget, we have to pay it back, No exception.
Byzantine_Ruins, thanks for that reference. Very interesting. I'd like to think the thought popped into my mind today of its own volition but perhaps I read something similar three decades ago.
Irregardless, it was an epiphany for me this morning.
Had a guy ML do a pitch at my old company. I asked him why "class c" shares instead of "A". He left the room and never came back.
ew thread!
The West always make the fatal mistake of not understanding China's craving for "face."
China always makes the fatal mistake of not realizing the West doesn't give a sh!t about face.
Broward Horne writes:
Byzantine_Ruins, thanks for that reference. Very interesting. I'd like to think the thought popped into my mind today of its own volition but perhaps I read something similar three decades ago.
You didn't necessarily do so. I think it's a natural observation 'cause I think it's the truth. Maybe it's just an observation about how human nature breaks out statistically under certain conditions where people are not held to very high expectations.
I want the two minutes I'm about to waste explaining it to you back. Of course hardly any of the "stuff" is made in the US. We've got entire nations willing to bend over to make it for us just to get the chance to rub up against what's really important in the hopes that some of it rubs off.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 10.24.08
Dog, you neocon piece of dog crap. Its too late, the world has seen behind the curtain.
I am sure this was said on wall street somehwere.
26)house prices always go up
27)financial engineering decreases risk
Chill Bear Dope writes:
BR:
Lot of deluded people. My parents are convinced that most of this "bad economy" is a liberal media plot.
Why do you think hey feel this way? Do you think they could be persuaded otherwise? How? Not being rhetorical, actually looking for insight. The more we can convince of the error of their ways, the less likely they'll make a desperate grab for power in a couple years.
28) Don't worry, it's hedged against loses.
Updated part two, thanks for all the additions.
1) Historic Returns on the stock market
2) Dollar cost averaging
3) Diversification of Funds
4) Long term Investing
5) Investing by age bracket
6) 529 plans - that just help raise college tuitions
7) 401k - just subsidize stock investing
8) The dividend will support the stock price
9) Buy and hold (especially an index fund)
10) Efficient Frontier
11) It's a one decision stock
12) The US has decoupled (not to be confused with coitus interuptess)
13) Cash is trash
14) Falling oil prices are positive for the stock market
15) Buy the dips
16) The value is compelling
17) can't pick tops
18) can't pick bottoms
19) Stock options align the interests of management with that of the shareholders.
20) Risk can be modelled and managed with mathematical models"
21)"Don't try to time the market".
22)"it's all priced in"
23) Home equity is dead money.
24) It's rated triple A by Moody's!
basel 2, sorry for the confusion. they think IF they are acquired by a non swf, it would be GS.
much doubt about a sovereign wealth fund being allowed to acquire them.
Dog, you neocon piece of dog crap. Its too late, the world has seen behind the curtain. - Canadian watching with popcorn
Snigger. Perhaps but it the only curtain.
I call them the "neo-boers" when I talk to them, 'cause that's what they are -- racists and religious bigots in the South African model.
Dude, WTF are you talking about. The downfall of the Republican party was when the neocons took power.
The good-old boys are just reacting to neocon anti-Islam propaganda gone wild... I wish they could figure it out, but Fox News is just too much for them right now.
Alan greenspend:
how necessary is a shotgun wedding for C?
Sue, one more:
No losses until you sell.
"'John McCain was never tortured in my jail, says Tran Trong Duyet"
I actually met someone last night who showed scars and described several other nasty, life-altering wounds he received as a POW in Vietnam.
Byz- you're talking about half the people in the US
I'll compile the rest, bracket them by topic and send to Cramer, Stewart, Colbert and see what happens.
Omar Khadr, Canadian child in Gitmo since he was 15.
YouTube - Guantanamo Bay child soldier CSIS interrogation - Omar Khadr
someone call the waahhhbulance.
we murder, what, 7 figures of Vietnamese in an illegal war of aggression and they had the temerity to abuse our boys when they caught them? life's so fucking unfair.
thanks to its now-total reliance on the Southern Strategy
This is Carole Simpson's old discredited meme from 2004, and she completely ignored that Democrat Jimmy Carter won most Southern States (1976), Democrat Bill Clinton won many (1992, 1996), and that the only states that supported Democrats John W. Davis in 1924 and Adlai Stevenson in 1952 were a near-perfect match for a map of the Old Confederacy.
basel 2, that i don't have info from them on that i trust. they say all their toxins are 60 cents and believe it. they don't see how damaged their credit card defaults are. they know that pandit can't save them from the powers of the looting gs bush cartel.
ok, totally signing off. be back sunday night.
This is Carole Simpson's old discredited meme from 2004,
"Discredited" by who since 2004? A Republican? If you think there's a Republican with the credibility to "discredit" anything since 2004, you are part of the problem.
The Republican party are racists and religious bigots. The rank and file are also xenophobes. No amount of nattering or rhetorical gamesmanship will change the reality of the fact that your party is a morally bankrupt assemblage of villains.
It will be stripped of its quality components and the remainder discarded.
Discredited means patently incorrect, that's all, according to historical electoral maps which are in the public domain and belong to neither party.
What I pointed out was completely correct, and the old "Southern Strategy" idea, which was used successfully by Clinton of Arkansas and Gore of Tennessee, can be used by either party.
where is the "market are efficient" in determining prices. If this were true, and today is the correct price, this mean the value they gave the economy was 4 times what is worth for markets that fell 75%.
Market are efficient is a hoax!
Markets is a game. Learn how to play it. It has nothing/little to do with economy!
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: Stock market bottom price prediction october 2008 (third visit to the bottom)
jim, is your middle name eric?
BR:
For various reasons, no.
I don't "fit" in my family.
Despite various accomplishments (Recon Marine, PhD Berkeley, no debt), because I am no longer married, have no children, not a corporate wage slave, and not mortgaged to my eyebrows, I don't really have much influence.
The "Southern Strategy" was a post 1965 move by Nixon and the now apostate Keven Phillips to appeal to white resentment in the wake of the Civil Rights movement. The Republican party has definitely taken over the "solid Democratic South" that ran from the Civil War through Johnson's election.
The article at Wikipedia is pretty detailed about all this.
The Republican party are racists and religious bigots.
The Civil Rights Act of 1964 was passed by a higher percentage of Republican Senators than Democratic Senators. All of the crackers were Southern Democrats, including former
Ku Klux Klan member Robert Byrd, who's still a Senator from West Virginia.
As for this "post-1965" Southern Strategy, it didn't work very well, because the South was split 3 ways in the 1968 presidential election among the infamous George Wallace (who won 5 states), Nixon, and Humphrey (who won Texas). In 1972, Nixon won 49 states--south, north, east, west. Then Democrat Jimmy Carter successfully invoked his own Southern Strategy in 1976.
Barley,
Only problem with Canada trying that is, they don't have the military to stop the US just taking what it wants if real push comes to real shove. Expect a lot of interesting military moves as the global depression really starts to take hold.
Barley writes:
US: "Fuck you"
Canadian watching with popcorn
okay
Canada - stop all shipments of oil and gas until payment rec'd
Barley | 10.24.08 - 11:02 pm | #
Dude, WTF are you talking about. The downfall of the Republican party was when the neocons took power.
The good-old boys are just reacting to neocon anti-Islam propaganda gone wild...
No, I know many of them, and you're wrong. I didn't become alienated except after many attempts to speak reason to those both high and low in the food chain.
They are your typical puppets of a fascist regime. The leaders are morally bankrupt cynics, their victims in the rank and file and whites with no real skills, no real education and threatened social standing.
They believe fervently because without belief they would be rabble. If these were inchoate tendencies that have only recently been manipulated into concrete behavior, it makes them no less real or dangerous to the Republic.
They are currently -- and will remain for the indefinite future -- united under an elitist creed that defines a "real" American by their skin tone, exurban origin of aspirations, fundamentalist beliefs and the essentially royalist / fascist belief in the necessity of an authoritarian state to "protect freedom".
James G. Gimpel on National Review Online
Bachmann's `Anti-American' Jab Roils Republican Races (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
I really don't have any time for Republican attempts to rewrite the history of the last decade. They made a gamble for power by abandoning big-tent politics for divide-and-rule policies, they lost, now they pay the consequences. Man up or recant.
Expect a lot of interesting military moves as the global depression really starts to take hold.
If this is what is to be expected then a true fascism will finally show its face on North America. That what be fiting indeed. To sad to even think about really.
They believe fervently because without belief they would be rabble.
A majority of high-school drop-outs support Democrats, and have done so for a long time. A majority of people with some college, or college degrees, support Republicans. A majority of people with post-graduate degrees support Democrats.
Where is this rabble you're talking about? In your neighborhood?
The Civil Rights Act of 1964 was passed by a higher percentage of Republican Senators than Democratic Senators.
And yet lo, these crackers' districts are now all solid Republicans. It's not because of vast cultural change and newly-discovered commitment to the principle of universal human equality, it's because the Republican party cornered the market on bigotry.
The claim of the Republican Party to be the the "party of Lincoln" is a little flimsy at this point, by which I mean, a laughable fabrication. It's the party of Gitmo, the Patriot Act, the War on Terror, the Iraq War and the Bankster Bailout.
I would say if anything, the crackers have hollowed the party of Lincoln out from within and wear its shell to provide them with a mask of legitimacy. It is the party of Emancipation in name only.
BR -
You can count me as
APOERFTOG
Another Pissed Off Ex-Republican For The Other Guy.
Enough is far more than enough.
Chill Bear:
While I don't know about your parents, I do have close friends of mine that are a bit older than me who share your parents' sentiment.
Basically, their parents lived through the Depression, and they themselves lived through stagflation and the Reagan recession. Their middle class lifestyle is so different from ours: hand-washing clothes, walking to the bus stop because there was only one car, one phone household, etc. Unfathomable to us, there was a time without credit. The means to procure the necessities was the cash on hand. But they survived those times, and so did the country. To them, the booms and busts were a part of life, and recovery was what defined American Exceptionalism.
So far, from what people who have lived it have told me, things are not as bad on Main Street as they during the early 1980s recession. Of course, I (and everyone else on CR) know that there are dangerous tensions that are starting to explode. But many can only go by their experiences. Is one really hurting if one still has a cell phone and Internet?
And so, yes, these folks believe that "we are a nation of whiners" and that the economic problems have been magnified by a liberal media. Do I agree with their beliefs? Probably not. Do I respect the experiences that forged those beliefs? You bet.
serf Alan Greenspend,
Cool stuff. Thanks for sharing
The problem with the third party in the US is that they come from the fringes. We need a true conservative party from the middle. Or that four party system sounded good: Fiscal conservative/social conservative; fiscal conservative/social liberal; fiscal liberal/social conservative; fiscal liberal/social liberal,...but it's not going to happen.
P.S. I shudder when I think of the idiots we Democrats get to call our own.
I shudder when I think of the idiots we Democrats get to call our own.
As a lifelong social liberal, fiscal conservative, states rights type of guy, I laugh at my friends jubilation over winning full control of Congress and the Presidency.
In 2012, after failing just as miserably as the GOP, the Democrat brand will be just as tarnished as the GOP today.
In 2012, after failing just as miserably as the GOP, the Democrat brand will be just as tarnished as the GOP today.
Optimist.
Where is this rabble you're talking about? In your neighborhood?
Oh that's convincing. Not the party of bigotry and intolerance talking there, no way.
Am I supposed to feel intimidated or belittled? Like I've never had a half-dozen of you guys haranguing me all at once. To get any kind of pressure going, you really need several of you making snide public asides to one-another to try to humiliate me so I'm really driven to seek your approval.
Sorry big daddy, not gonna try to grab the football.
Like I've never had a half-dozen of you guys haranguing me all at once.
Maybe not in this forum. Now it's just one, but maybe it feels like six.
It's amazing what 100 million legal and illegal immigrants will do to the world if you GIVE THEM HOMES WITH NO DOCUMENTATION AND LET THEM REFINANCE ONE, TWO, THREE TIMES, AND THEN SELL THEM ANOTHER HOUSE, AND THEY DO IT AGAIN, AND AGAIN, AND AGAIN. I'M NOT LETTING IT REST. WAKE UP! DIVERSITY IS PERVERSITY! BIRDS OF A FEATHER FLOCK TOGETHER! THIS GLOBAL CRISIS WAS CAUSED BY DIVERSITY FORCED ON FREE MARKETS aka. SOCIALISM! IT IS A FAILED EXPERIMENT. CASH OUT WHILE YOU STILL HAVE A CHANCE. THE TSUNAMI HAS NOT ARRIVED, YET. RUN, HIDE, EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELF! IT'S THE END OF CIVILIZATION.
MLM:
BR -
You can count me as
APOERFTOG
Another Pissed Off Ex-Republican For The Other Guy.
Enough is far more than enough.
Thanks. I'm certainly not a liberal -- I'm what was once called a Goldwater Republican before that was another way of saying pro-terror liberal-libertarian-commie-homo.
I just think American Conservatism is so tainted it's going to have to be reinvented from the ground up after the dissolution of the current Republican party. They're really just fascists at this point and I don't think anything useful can be done until the fascist wing is purged from political influence.
I agree with you and Basel Too that 2012 will see the Democrats equally discredited and I'm hoping at some point around there we will start to see some institutional renewal and reinvention of the American political milieu.
I'd like to think that the Republican party will clean up after their licking this year but I think it's just going to be another round of purity-testing where only those most like an incarnate Ann Coulter monologue will be permitted to speak.
El Cliffo writes:
Maybe not in this forum. Now it's just one, but maybe it feels like six.
No, in much rougher forums, with much better opponents.
This is like morning calisthenics compared to posting, say, on this date in the year 2004.
Once again, where is this "rabble" you mentioned? Who are they? People who don't share the same opinions as you? And how can you be such a snob to call people "puppets" and "rabble"?
Once again, where is this "rabble" you mentioned? Who are they? People who don't share the same opinions as you? And how can you be such a snob to call people "puppets" and "rabble"?
People like you, Cliff-o. People who get duped into being a lickspittle for enemies of the Republic and thinking it's patriotic.
Lots of people differ with me and I give their arguments the respect I think they merit.
People who are still defending the Republican party at this late date? Well, if it was up to me, I'd give you a shot of hooch and a pen and paper to write a short good-bye note to your mom, kid or wife.
Byzantine_Ruins writes:
Don't stop now BR...you're on a roll. And this excellent reading.
Canucklehead:
Don't stop now BR...you're on a roll. And this excellent reading.
LOL, thanks, but it seems to be at its conclusion and it's 2:15 in the morning my time.
I'm going to Disneyworld, err, sleep. =)
Conclusion? Heck i was hoping for some Bretton Woods II insight and some comments on the future economic warfare we seem to be heading for.. or are in the middle of..
Anyway, tomorrow is another day!
canucklehead writes:
Conclusion? Heck i was hoping for some Bretton Woods II insight and some comments on the future economic warfare we seem to be heading for.. or are in the middle of..
Anyway, tomorrow is another day!
Heh, ask me fun stuff just as I'm winding up for bed.
I know the currencies people say there's a currency war going on but I'm too much of a newbie to see it all playing out. Ask EvilHenryPaulson or mp or Comrade Counterpointer if you want good observations.
I think a lot of people are making noises about unseating the dollar regime but it reminds me of the attempt to found a pan-Arab state in the 50s. You can make a lot of good arguments for it but but regimes spring from compulsion or compulsive circumstances, not good arguments.
BTW, didn't see anything from ya -- if you actually want to get in touch and aren't just being polite, just leave an anon note in my blog with your contact info. It'll be screened.
What we see is a combination of collapsing currencies + foreign investment outflows in emerging economies. That's they are facing what we faced as a depression.
In real terms, we have been in recession for years, although used credit pretending it was income or perverse savings. This is why in nominal terms it only appears we are off 30% in the djia, naz, s+p.
We are presently in debt to these folks who are in a "depression." When they come back, hopefully, we will have paid back much of our debt, or else we will be trying to pay back debt on their appreciating currencies, which will make it more difficult to repay.
Korean stock market plunged 11% on Friday for IMF worries.....any possibility?
Gold reserves (tonnes), 2007
USA \t8,133.5
People's Republic of China 600.0
unirealist writes, Surviving nations? Canada (maybe), Cuba, Nicaragua. Not many, at any rate.
One can't die if one has never lived. The US will never fall so low that it isn't above heights Cuba and Nicaragua never reached. As for Canada, I'd give up 10,000 points on the DOW not to have their climate or girlish ways. It's easy to fund medical care when your big brother funds your your defense.
God save the queens.
They believe fervently because without belief they would be rabble. If these were inchoate tendencies that have only recently been manipulated into concrete behavior, it makes them no less real or dangerous to the Republic.
--Byzantine Ruins
You gotta love a blog where a commenter can use inchoate properly.
The US will never fall so low that it isn't above heights Cuba and Nicaragua never reached...
I visited friends in Nicaragua last summer. They exhibit an enjoyment of life you won't find ANYWHERE in this United States.
They will continue so while we here in the US are eating rats.
Oh, yeah, this was priceless the other day:
"Maybe people who WORK instead of TALK will come back into vogue.--Broward Horne 10.22.08 - 3:42 pm
"Do you think guys like Paulson or Dimon would bat an eye at taking regs to a fancy dinner or 3? Those regs work for peanuts compared to those guys."
An acquaintance of ours is married to a fairly well-placed FDIC official. We know they live modestly, and I'm certain they're people of integrity.
When you live in DC you meet all sorts of people working in official jobs, and the only one we ever thought smelled a little odd was a congressman.
"You gotta love a blog where a commenter can use inchoate properly."
That's one of the reasons I'm here. Now if we could only figure out that the possessive of it is 'its'.
IMHO our problems are basically moral/spiritual, not financial. But I came across a brilliant aphorism recently in R.W. Southern's history of the Church:
Those who cannot give, cannot rule.
....I think US cliff diving will begin after election .... who is elected doesnt matter anymore....before that sell all your stocks....
Many world stock markets now off 50% or more from peaks.
And you americans are looking for friends in the world ??
Is it really that bad? I see it as a great chance to make money. I dont personally make money at 14,000... but I do make money coming back from 7,000.