Real question is why is this Gollum-esque traitor blaming current financial mess on failure of free markets. Free markets would allow these punk-@$$e$ to fail with their modern financial instrument shenanigans and then I'd finally be able to get a nice shoe-shine from their sorry bums. This shriveled prune used to love his Precious Shiny Yellow. Wonder what happened.
LA Times - Wall Street wives had the richer, now they're a bit poorer
"In interviews with several Wall Street wives whose husbands' big earnings are in jeopardy, they describe the pain of walking through malls and boutiques -- how it hurts knowing they can't grab a few things for themselves that might catch their fancy. They tell themselves this will pass. Wall Street shrinks during tough times, but it always comes back. But what if it doesn't this time?"
Inspired by the spirit of American entrepreneurial zeal, I implant a kaleidoscope inside my magic 8 ball. I then ask questions like: WHERE is the bottom? The answer comes back in multicolored collages of triangles, rectangles, half moons and stars. Running the code through propriety encryption technology the answer reveals itself: At what point? I hate it when a question gets answered by a question.
Unsatisfied with relativistic reality I ask again. WHEN will this end? Once again rolling that magic eight ball down the length of an aisle into ten left over promotional cozies duplexes, held together by rolled up promotional literature. The sphere knocks down six pins before coming to rest in a cubical filled with hard drive erased Dell computers. This time the answer is predominantly ruby octagons with emerald inserts. Translation: When stocks equal rocks. Mystic forces with attitude make me cranky.
That is not exactly a spoof, at least not in the way that you mean. The singer is supposed to be a look-alike for Glenn Hubbard, Dean at Columbia Business School and one of the names on the short list to be Greenspan's replacement.
Of course, he did not get the job, and that video was created by CBS students to poke fun at him. If anything, it is a spoof of Dean Hubbard, not Bernanke.
Thank you CR for this forum. I want to share this site with everyone. Actually, I want to slap this site into everyone's face, then maybe people will get it.
It is already the bottom, as predicted/timed in the blog on October 10, October 16, and today/yesterday.
I want to believe you jim, I really do. But first I need help getting a two week old inverted hammer rectal probe removed. Can financialtraders help with that?
Inspired by the spirit of American entrepreneurial zeal, I implant a kaleidoscope inside my magic 8 ball. I then ask questions like: WHERE is the bottom? The answer comes back in multicolored collages of triangles, rectangles, half moons and stars. Running the code through propriety encryption technology the answer reveals itself: At what point? I hate it when a question gets answered by a question.
Unsatisfied with relativistic reality I ask again. WHEN will this end? Once again rolling that magic eight ball down the length of an aisle into ten left over promotional cozy duplexes, held together by rolled up promotional literature. The sphere knocks down six pins before coming to rest in a cubical filled with hard drive erased Dell computers. This time the answer is predominantly ruby octagons with emerald inserts. Translation: When stocks equal rocks. Mystic forces with attitude make me cranky.
WHO is responsible for this carnage? Flinging the magic 8 ball into a stack of bankers boxes filled with approved loan files it rebounds as if coming off a BRIC wall. The jolt has the kaleidoscope knocked slightly out of alignment. The reds and greens appear to be a reflection of a pattern of a reflection of a pattern of a reflection of a pattern. The first run through the analyzer appears to point at every step of the process. I think, that cant be right. How could everyone screw up?
Fascism is now official ideology. FED prints money. Halliburton shares will quadruple next 12 mths. Purchasing power of J6P will halve over next 12 mths.
Short SPX. Long gold.
Buy Fleckensteins book about Greenspan "Greenspans Bubbles" instead. What a week, can we have any more fun next week? Gonna look for a movie on cable now.
When Greenspan leaves this veil of tears, he should be given the Lenin embalming/preservation, and laid out on the trading floor of the NY stock exchange with a continuous video of his "I was shocked" testimony continuously playing as a warning about ideologicial hubris.
Anyone who thinks USA has been or is a free market economy needs their head examined. Sadly that means 99.9% of the world.
Juan and Benito, how do we fix this?
The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar's dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday.
The front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily said that Asian and European countries should banish the U.S. dollar from their direct trade relations for a start, relying only on their own currencies.
A meeting between Asian and European leaders, starting on Friday in Beijing, presented the perfect opportunity to begin building a new international financial order, the newspaper said. ...
It is a very important expression of sentiment from ROW with huge consequences down the line for world financial markets. I don't think most in U.S. appreciate the anger that has built up and will continue to build as this calamity drags on.
It will be blamed just about uniquely on the U.S. and its form of capitalism.
"Conservatives love to lecture us all on how individuals should take personal responsiblity and not rely on the nanny state to protect them from the consequences of their own actions.
But hey City banker with two mansions, kids' private school fees and a coke habit to support please give generously Joe Taxpayer.
What you expect me and my boys to pay our fair share of the higher taxes to pay down the public sector debt run up to clear up this clusterfuck we caused. Sorry. My money's in the Caymans and when property and share prices hit bottom me and my oligarch friends will buy up YOUR houses and YOUR failed businesses on the cheap and start again.
Hey I'm pure evil, you losers that's why I became a Conservative. There's only one thing the ruling class has a duty to preserve: our bank balances.
What's that you say? Cut down on Trident here or US overseas bases there to get the budget in better shape? Nope, that would get in the way of murdering Arabs and stealing their oil. oops sorry "humanitarian intervention"
RE writes:
"It will be blamed just about uniquely on the U.S. and its form of capitalism."
This is truly the unfortunate part and most of the US population feel anger towards the situation as well. Watch the vote turnout, as proof of this.
But the anger exists because the world placed certain expectations on the US and those expectations were not met.
This shows at least 2 things:
1) The expectation being there in the first place illustrate the fact that the world looked and probably still looks to the US for leadership.
2) That the world likes to party as much as anyone, just as long as there is booze around, but then has the nasty habit of blaming its hangover on the bartender.
1) The expectation being there in the first place illustrate the fact that the world looked and probably still looks to the US for leadership.
2) That the world likes to party as much as anyone, just as long as there is booze around, but then has the nasty habit of blaming its hangover on the bartender.
I totally disagree with point 1 but fully agree with point 2.
The world is not looking for U.S. guidance anymore. It will look with a much more tolerable eye at an Obama administration but overall the U.S. is now so mistrusted at so many levels that leadership is simply not in the cards. The downfall of U.S. preeminence was started with the Iraq fiasco and will be significantly exacerbated by this crisis.
Re: Those waiting for a crash
Doesn't it seem like there are a lot of people who have flipped from a long position to a short position?
Just looking at the double-short ETFs, I don't want to say "over-sold", but for example they do represent leveraged short positions in the real world. As more people buy short positions or short ETF doesn't it act as some type of floor as some people choose to get out of their short positions?
I think some one else mentioned the trouble they were buying puts (Misean?). SOrry, I'm not a trader and have been reading here since 2005... but lately CR has expanded coverage beyond housing and attracted a broad set of commenters.
James K. Galbraith talks about "The Predator State" on Bill Moyers Journal @ PBS.org, if anyone is interested. An easy-to-understand overview of what's happening with the economy. Also a few other interesting segments.
I shared last night (or maybe two nights ago?) my position regarding an inheritance. When the shares are eventually transferred (this week!) do I have to wait 3 days for settlement or can I sell shares right away??
Spider-chairman, spider-chairman
Does whatever a spider-chairman does...
That would appear to be very little, at least in the way of effective regulation.
Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 2:02 am | #
The "original" goes on, something like-
Can he swing from a thread? No he can't, he's just a chairman,...
It depends on the shares...while I think selling might generally might be a good idea, and having just gone on through a similar death in a family, the old fashioned portfolio builder types (as you described) seemed to buy good stocks that might be unfairly beaten down.
Sorry but if the Simpson's are equivalent to sub-prime, then Family Guy is equivalent to the full faith and credit of pre 1971 US denominated currency.
Backed by prominent religious and political figures.
And God when he's not concerned with arranging uniquely hellish conditions in the afterlife for Keynesian economists.
I think I've finally figured out why this whole thing isn't really going to work (and I don't believe I'm the first.) That said, Im going to try to articulate it tomorrow. I suspect it will be a far cry from a Conjure Communique, but I hope some people will take a whack at it....
Yeah, well we should've all agreed just to sell months ago... I didn't realize it was taking so freaking long. But if we sold when my relative passed, we would've avoided this 25% drop that just impacted the whole market. Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb. I saw the stagnation but had no idea that everything would come apart so quickly... seemed like a safe bet that Bush would try everything to keep stocks afloat until 2009.
I'm looking to sell 75% of what I get at least. When I received stocks in the past I'd like to balance out and not sell off certain stocks, but I've already identified one... Citigroup that I'd sell off the whole thing... I mean they are gonna get diluted.
He did invest in a lot of blue chips... but last time I talked to him he said he hadn't managed his portfolio for 5 years or so. Was just giving away everything to grandchildren. There's a lot of Wal-Mart, Coke, Boeing, Philip Morris... but also a lot of mutual funds which I don't want any part of.
I already sold most of what he gifted to me over my life out of necessity. Then when I realized what was going on last year I cashed out most of the rest this January.
I'm gonna take a lot of proceeds and put it into paper silver or paper gold and then put a lot into CDs/cash. I'm not convinced we are near a "bottom"... I just want to get the F out like months ago!
In all fairness, "face" cannot be characterized purely as "pride/stubborness", and it is not a flaw, at least not in all cases. In some cases it is to be commended and it is something that the West could use more of.
Let me explain...
Pride can come in many forms. But the form exhibited by GWD is clearly not "face". But that is an uninteresting topic...
The pride associated with "face" comes from the belief that your action or your thinking was safe, lacked any sort of greed, was not overreaching (e.g. for return). At the same time it requires subjects to observe and to jundge you and the outcome of your action.
But when your action is proven wrong or inpruent, and even detremental to your subjects, then "face" is lost. "Face" simply evaporates. It's quite fascinating...
"Face" requires the pretense of utilitarianism and the pride of narcissism. And it is a heavy burden to bear.
Keep the post spin Phillip Morris International shares, sell 1/2 altria, sell 1/2 coke, keep boeing (worst time to sell - but get out in the mid-60's-70's); WMT sell or keep doesnt matter; While not a bouyer of Citi until it hits $10, I wouldnt sell, if you think that goes to $5, all of the above stocks ares 40-60% dow
Just to be clear, I don't believe in God or the afterlife, and I'm not trying to promote any sort of religious beliefs.
I'm just saying that as human beings we need to be rational and understand that advocates of Keynesian economics are doomed to burn in hell for all of eternity.
Not as mysterious if you consider the "respect" aspect. Self-respect and society's respect. These things also seem to evaporate when someone is 'dissed'.
This shows at least 2 things:
1) The expectation being there in the first place illustrate the fact that the world looked and probably still looks to the US for leadership.
2) That the world likes to party as much as anyone, just as long as there is booze around, but then has the nasty habit of blaming its hangover on the bartender.
No. 1 is the problem. The US is the worst leader , bar everyone else. It is the failure of the rest of the world to supply a real alternative that is the real dilemma.
sdtfs,
To be honest I probably sound like a jerk, and sometimes feel like a jerk trying to "get my money before it goes up in smoke", especially to my uncle. It's hard to balance, "I sympathize with your loss, thank you for dealing with probate" and "hey man, why is it taking so long?! its a trust!"
Honestly I would rather have my grandfather around for a few more Christmas', Thanksgivings, and birthdays... he was a Blessing... not sure how he could've raised such a great daughter who turned out to be my mom. Myself, wife and our first got to see him 2 weeks before he passed... in fact he had just seen a Dr a few days before he passed... I'm so glad we made it a priority and it was completely worth taking a 2-year-old on a LAX-IAD flight... he was an older-2 and maybe his 4th or 5th time on an airplane...
I'm at the point where I could weather more losses but do not want to at all. Of course its probably not as much as you might think it is; but to me it is a great windfall. I'll be able to use it to pay off my evil credit card debt and have a decent emergency fund and hopefully a little something nice. The credit card debt has been bloody weighing me down for 3 years. Had no debt until I got married 4 years ago! I guess technically I've actually paid off $15k in debt since I was married... women are great...
Had no debt until I got married 4 years ago! I guess technically I've actually paid off $15k in debt since I was married... women are great...
Ditto, six years ago. Married, then a child. I know we paid off some old student loans,...I don't know how much, but it's ballpark to yours.
Two years ago her Dad died; the life insurance paid out. Let's just say no matter what the sum, it's not enough and has potential to really mess up family relationships (even without the circumstances surrounding the death.)
Just a gentle reminder that family is more important than money.
Oh, and on our way to his funeral I got the word that my dad died. I, too, am glad that he got to see his granddaughter before he died (I'm thinking he had probably given up on me as a source for grandchildren years ago.)
sdtfs wrote: I don't think what you're discussing here as "face" has anything like the cultural implications in China or Japan, more particularly Japan.
Are you saying that the Chinese will loose face if we point out to them that their per capita income is less than 5% of the United States?
Makes them look rather unproductive. Yeah, American Capitalism sucks. But, even with the looters in charge, it doesn't suck like Chinese Capitalism does.
I'm sure this has been done before, but I'd like to see a picture of a guy named Art, captioned: "Art Imitates Life"
Plus anyone else notice the irony in his use of "shocked"? Naomi Klein's Shock Doctrine talks about the use of shock to soften people up and prepare them for herding. Here Greenspan is the one saying he was shocked.
Check out the latest monetary base from St.Louis FED (use google). That is the scariest thing I have seen since Evita was Minister of Finance. I hate those Hobos.
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Truly amazing! Who would've ever thought that this could have happened in consideration that there was never any oversight and you could borrow money, at will, for nearly free.
Anyone who thinks USA has been or is a free market economy needs their head examined. Sadly that means 99.9% of the world.
Juan and Benito, how do we fix this?
First, we tell all the Ayn Rand arseholesniffers to STFU, and the we make sure we mock them every time they pipe up again.
They're no different from the Trotskyite morans who whinge that "Real Communism has never been tried properly" and thus there's nothing wrong with it, other than our insufficient zeal.
Oh wait---there is a difference: all seven of those commies are making tofu goulash with dreadlock chunks in their college vegan store. But there are zillions of true-beleving laissez-faire bots running the country down the tubes.
Picking up from the previous thread, where Barley pointed out the unhappy German blaming him personnally for the ROW troubles. Where I work(London) about half the staff are French and I have several Germans in my team. I can tell you the anger is palpable throughout the office. To those of you who dismissively say "we didn't have to buy your crap" I would say yes that's true but the US is in a unique position. By demanding political and dollar hegemony you have put yourself in a position of leadership. You must act like leaders if you want to stay there. Ask yourself if the US recently has behaved like a leader. I was sensing a lot of uber-patriotism on the last thread. Maybe I was just misreading (easy on the internet) or maybe this is just pre-election fervour. But frankly, those of you who think the US is the center of the universe, that there is nowhere else on the planet fit to live or invest, that Europe is going to let its multi-decade euro project collapse due to the misbehaviour of a few US bankers and that the dollar is entitled to maintain its dominance just becuase, well just because its the dollar, you need to get over yourselves and get out more. With great power comes great responsibility, and the US needs to get its f**king act together and start behaving like the leader it thinks it is if you hope to ever have the respect of the ROW again.
Ask yourself if the US recently has behaved like a leader. I was sensing a lot of uber-patriotism on the last thread.
I don't think anyone here is trying to defend what the US did. Some like me are not financially savvy but figured out something was wrong. This is early 04. The blogs helped us connect the dots.
Now step aside and we have countries like Germany, France with 100s of PhDs looking at risk management. What the f were these guys doing to stop the farce? They didn't want to look at the other side until things got bad. Why did they wait so long?
Complaining about US leadership to us is like singing to the quier.
REBear, you got that right. Very few in Europe understands the danger of money and credit inflation. Same goes for USA.
Regulation (and lower growth) will be the answer. But what bubble will come out of what BB does now? Please identify the next bubble and start regulating it.
-Breaking news-
Lost in a thread before, there was some report of the collapse of Volvo trucks sales in Europe during 2008 Q3.
2007 Q3 : 41,970
2008 Q3 : 115 (-99.7 %)
I would like to thank Dr Chaos for articulating what I have been thinking since I started reading economics blogs last winter and never before saw so much free market ideology (mostly in comments).
Bubble of American Supremacy writes:
"Seems like Sarkozy does understand:
"Asian and European leaders agreed that the rules guiding the global economy should be rewritten"."
This agreement may only survive 15 minutes into actual negotiations.
One of the largest source of instability in the global financial system is the tendency of certain Asian countries to peg their currencies at such a low level that they end up with a trade surplus of 10% of GDP or so.
How much agreement will there be to stop that?
Arguably, there may be regulatory changes facing banks and other entities like hedge funds, but those moves will largely consist of bolting the stable door after the horse is off in the next county. As long as huge trade imbalances need to be financed, the system will be unstable.
All you bond people... Bill Gross, and his Roubini love child El-Erian have been very quiet for the last few days. Making me nervous. What are they up to?
Hitler was not solely, singularly responsible for the holocaust--and Greenspan isn't the only composer of our economic demise. Congress critters--especially Bush appeasers--and Bush himself, birthed this baby. The press cheered it on, backed by the U of Chicago. The telling fact was that not enough people seemed to go apeshit when every year showed a drop in real incomes. How could asset prices go up when consumer income kept falling, kiting a check is an old identifiable criminal act. The pols and the media are complicit, the old man sounds like a fool today because his gibberish was exalted so much before.
The oracle had no clothes for a long time--a very long time. He was to finance what Kissinger was to foreign affairs--praised and always wrong.
Uncle Billy, Rater Hater writes:
"All you bond people... Bill Gross, and his Roubini love child El-Erian have been very quiet for the last few days. Making me nervous. What are they up to?"
But what bubble comes out of what BB does now? Please identify the next bubble and start regulating it.
I have an answer so obvious I think I must be mistaken. US Treasuries along with dollar and yen FX are inflating furiously. There is no thought here of attempting regulation as this administration imagines these developments constitute a solution.
They may imagine a future downgrade of US Treasury debt or a collapse of the dollar can be managed. The track record to date, however, suggests otherwise.
Comrade Peronista, I know where the money is going and I know it's not going to the poor.
Are you saying that the Central Banks are the problem? Maybe, but the deregulation of the financial industry and "supply-side" economics over the last 28 years seem to have had a lot to do with it as well.
Frankly, I'd prefer a european style social democracy.
Since I continue to read these blogs and often read the comments I'm interested in hearing all sides, but I've seen nothing yet to really challenge that preference.
Do y'all realize the wholesale gasoline contract closed Friday @ $1.45? That means gas under 2 bucks in many U.S. regions come sooner than later. Anyone have video of James Kunstler's head exploding?
Let's vote on our favorite european style democracy.
I'm for Denmark, home of the happiest people on earth. (Well a documentary said they were). Trouble is that they're a homogeneous society and we're not. It's been demonstrated that people do not like to pay taxes for people that aren't like them. Solution: tons of intermarriage in this generation, pinks with greens, zoroastrians with maronites, etc. We can solve this problem within two or three generations.
hello!
found this movie about the financial crisis on youtube. it gave some interesting perspectives on the situation: YouTube - Managing the Financial Crisis
What is with this notion that banks were deregulated? The entire housing bubble was in response to government meddling in the market. You disallow
interest deductions on consumer loans
and voila, Helocs appear. You lower interest rates and capital gains tax on residential real estate and, mirabile dictu, housing prices shoot up. You mandate banks make credit available to people further down the income ladder and, presto, subprime is born.
The housing and credit bubbles did not develop because 'banks' invented them. They were the ineluctable result of political and monetary decisions made by our regulatory authorities.
Uncle B--My mantra since being a teen--Fucking will set you free!!!
"Let's vote on our favorite european style democracy.
I'm for Denmark, home of the happiest people on earth. (Well a documentary said they were). Trouble is that they're a homogeneous society and we're not. It's been demonstrated that people do not like to pay taxes for people that aren't like them. Solution: tons of intermarriage in this generation, pinks with greens, zoroastrians with maronites, etc. We can solve this problem within two or three generations.
Uncle Billy, Rater Hater | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 9:52 am | #
Wow... I'm channeling Warren Beatty? Not good; he's creepy. He walked up to my dad's girlfriend, years ago, and started to hit on her right in front of him.
"...the result of political and monetary decisions made by our regulatory authorities", written by the lobbyists of corporations who would benefit. So, let's get real, shall we?
Employment, incomes, and credit fueled consumption...none of those are looking good for cash in J6P pocket - but hey at least there are those market gains to bank - wait, never mind...
The evidence strongly suggests that without the excess demand from securitizers, subprime mortgage originations (undeniably the original source of the crisis) would have been far smaller and defaults accordingly far lower, he said."
"The entire housing bubble was in response to government meddling in the market....You mandate banks make credit available to people further down the income ladder and, presto, subprime is born."
i challenge you to show me the law, regulation or executive directive that required or induced mortgage originators to loan money based on liar loan statements or to people determined to be at an inordinately higher risk to default.
i blame the government for much of what has happened but i have seen little in the way of convincing evidence that the government forced wall street to bundle and securitize loans into complex and exotic instruments. Wall street demanded more mortgages to bundle and tranche.
loan originators and banks did not have to hold loans on their books and received enticing origination fees.
these and other factors including low FF rate drove the reckless loan originations.
CRA did not require loans to those not qualified. CRA required that banks could not redline an entire neighborhood, refusing to loan to qualified individuals because statistically their neighbors may be less than cherry risks.
Unit 472 writes: The housing and credit bubbles did not develop because 'banks' invented them. They were the ineluctable result of political and monetary decisions made by our regulatory authorities.
That damn gubernmint made me make lousy financial products so we could pump the commish and write ourselves large bonuses. Now if we could get that damn gubermint ta stop stealing money from us by "taxing" us.
We'd like to be able to blame Greenspan, as if he were a god, and had some kind of total control.
There was no crystal ball, and jobs didn't begin to pick up until late in 2003, right?
So if someone would loan you yourself money at 1%, would you take the maximum loan and bet it all? If so, and if you then lost the bet, was that the lender's fault?
If you would do this, would you in fact not make the bet if the money was at 3.5% instead of 1%???
SALESMAN (laughs): I'm not gonna quote you a price till I check your credit rating. And let me --- I want to make myself clear on this. This is a formality. If you're saying to me, "Bob, is this guy good for it?", I say, "Yes.". I don't check this machine, but I don't own the place, even though's my name up there. Long story, but that doesn't matter. I'm gonna have to run it through the computer.
The salesman presses Enter and suddenly, a loud siren erupts.
HOMER: Is that a good siren? Am I approved?
SALESMAN: You ever know a siren to be good? (chuckles). No, Mr. Simpson, it's not. It's a bad siren. That's the computer in case I went blind, telling me "Sell the vehicle to this fella and you're out of business!". That's what the siren says.
HOMER: Oh.
SALESMAN: Seems the Ultimate Behemoth is a wee bit out of your price range. And "wee bit" is me being polite. You couldn't afford this thing if you lived to be a million.
"It's been demonstrated that people do not like to pay taxes for people that aren't like them."
I've heard this argument many times, however it is beginning to sound like the argument that "Americans won't vote for a black man for president."
As a city girl I rub elbows (literally. ha!) with all kinds of people every day, and it doesn't bother me at one bit that I pay taxes for them (and them for me).
"that someone here hasnt been braggin about how they make the "straddle' pay"
Hey! I have been doing this every Friday before market close for the past month. So far, I have been able to cash out in both directions with a 75% gain before the following Friday.
It has been the only place I have been making any money in a while.
Remember "Bullworth" the movie with Warren Beatty, the senator talks the insurance company into giving him huge life insurance coverage, then he arranges to have himself killed. Then he stays awake so long worrying about when he's going to get hit, that he goes kind of nuts. Plus his new black girlfriend (the hit man actually) helps get him stoned.
In a TV interview he is asked for his beliefs and he says he believes in "sexually determined, racial desegregration" or some such. When asked what he means he say, "We just have to keep f*cking each other until we're all the same color."
"The entire housing bubble was in response to government meddling in the market....You mandate banks make credit available to people further down the income ladder and, presto, subprime is born."
Is this what FOX news is peddling these days? It seems that Greenspan would disagree.
When my younger daughter was working as a research associate at the Fed some years ago, I asked her what the staff economists she worked with (certainly not right-wing ideologues) thought of Greenspan, and learned that they all had great respect for him (which doesn't imply they all agreed completely with his policies). These were people working in a wing not much more than a hundred or so steps from his office, who regularly gave presentations at meetings he chaired.
Nowhere have I ever heard or read a negative comment about his treatment of other people. I have read some rather positive comments.
Though I disagreed strongly with his low-interest-rate policies, and I despise Ayn Rand's philosophy, I see no compelling evidence to support any conclusion other than that Greenspan is something of an idealist who really is shocked by this.
Consider that Greenspan would be vastly wealthier had he left the Fed much earlier. Although political power has its attractions, they are stronger than the attractions of big money only to people who really believe they are embarked on a greater cause, and wish to have a good opinion of themselves and be respected by others.
Consider also that he has just admitted he was very wrong about something very important, and has reversed himself on the need for regulation. How many people in public life at his level ever do that?
As someone else pointed out recently, Greenspan is not a true Randian. If he were, he would be praising and congratulating those clever Wall Streeters who've ripped the world off.
While I certainly don't believe Greenspan was so naive as to think all bank executives honest, I suspect he thought the behavior we've seen the exception rather than the rule.
coolie kidbuck said:
republics are so 18th century.
The nihilism Nietzsche found in our age would mean not so much that traditional values have broken down as that a value system necessary for our complicated civilization has not yet evolved. Operating the colossal social structures of our time with the ethical concepts of a nomadic bronze-age society of three thousand years ago is like operating a nuclear reactor with the technology of a bushman .Moral exhortation to the individual and even his personal honesty are patently ineffective; the problem is to expand moral codes to the inclusion of higher social entities, and, at the same time, safeguard the individual from being devoured by the social Leviathan.
these and other factors including low FF rate drove the reckless loan originations.
CRA did not require loans to those not qualified. CRA required that banks could not redline an entire neighborhood, refusing to loan to qualified individuals because statistically their neighbors may be less than cherry risks.
Plus also the 2001-2003 tax cuts. Lowering the tax burden freed capital that could either go into consumption (eg. larger house in a better neighborhood) or investment (2nd house, income properties).
NEMO!!!
HA-HA!!!
I was right since 2004.
Mr. Greenspan, when you're wrong 100% of the time...
Oh, never mind.
The economy needs CPR.
From a Simpsons episode when they are visiting their 90 year old congressman and he has a heart attack:
Marge (yelling): "Does anyone know CPR?"
Homer (sings): "I See a Bad Moon Rising"
Marge: " No, thats CCR.
Real question is why is this Gollum-esque traitor blaming current financial mess on failure of free markets. Free markets would allow these punk-@$$e$ to fail with their modern financial instrument shenanigans and then I'd finally be able to get a nice shoe-shine from their sorry bums. This shriveled prune used to love his Precious Shiny Yellow. Wonder what happened.
Rant off, sort of.
Homer Simpson for Fed Chairman... donuts at the big table chased down with Duff. Could it be worse?
rsj adopted a refresh button monkey!
thats gonna cost him a lotta bananas!
Will Granspan just die and go away . He has caused enough damage.
Go on, touch my monkey.
Homer Simpson (to Bart):
Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals...except the weasel.
all the economists cant be wrong all of the time
some of the economists cant be wrong most of the time
none of the economists can be wrong none of the...
ah crap...never mind
ok i got it
all the monkeys cant be wrong all of the time
some of the monkeys cant be ...
hey , paulson, un hand that monkey
Monkey butlers for everybody!
(The Lord of the Flies episode)
Gad. Now I know what the liberals felt when they watched "W" at the movies.
Enough of Greenspan. He inspires an illness in me which borders on pity.
Oh the horror!
LA Times - Wall Street wives had the richer, now they're a bit poorer
"In interviews with several Wall Street wives whose husbands' big earnings are in jeopardy, they describe the pain of walking through malls and boutiques -- how it hurts knowing they can't grab a few things for themselves that might catch their fancy. They tell themselves this will pass. Wall Street shrinks during tough times, but it always comes back. But what if it doesn't this time?"
i dont know much about trading esp the options and futures market... (or much else for that matter, but
but with all the volatility in the market, im surprised...
that someone here hasnt been braggin about how they make the "straddle' pay
as in buying simultaneous put and call options?
Urban Dictionary: refresh monkey
LOL! I didnt know this monkey guy actually existed.... Comedy!
Spider-chairman, spider-chairman
Does whatever a spider-chairman does...
Or Lisa Simpson: If Scooby Doo has taught me anything, it's that there's nothing to be afraid of except crooked real estate developers
Lord of the Flies episode:
Sherri (to group): I'm so hungry I could eat at Arbys.
Group: shocked gasps
Greenspleen was under orders from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and their Chinese Overlords, just like paulson and Bernenke:
Your Mortgage Or Your Life – The upside of being down… Priceless « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
great Bernenke spoof...
How about just keeping your head out of your ass 95% of the time Mr. Greenspan?
Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals...except the weasel.
'I have a plan thats so cunning you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel' - Baldrick (Blackadder the third)
Inspired by the spirit of American entrepreneurial zeal, I implant a kaleidoscope inside my magic 8 ball. I then ask questions like: WHERE is the bottom? The answer comes back in multicolored collages of triangles, rectangles, half moons and stars. Running the code through propriety encryption technology the answer reveals itself: At what point? I hate it when a question gets answered by a question.
Unsatisfied with relativistic reality I ask again. WHEN will this end? Once again rolling that magic eight ball down the length of an aisle into ten left over promotional cozies duplexes, held together by rolled up promotional literature. The sphere knocks down six pins before coming to rest in a cubical filled with hard drive erased Dell computers. This time the answer is predominantly ruby octagons with emerald inserts. Translation: When stocks equal rocks. Mystic forces with attitude make me cranky.
Anthony M. Freed --
That is not exactly a spoof, at least not in the way that you mean. The singer is supposed to be a look-alike for Glenn Hubbard, Dean at Columbia Business School and one of the names on the short list to be Greenspan's replacement.
Of course, he did not get the job, and that video was created by CBS students to poke fun at him. If anything, it is a spoof of Dean Hubbard, not Bernanke.
It is already the bottom, as predicted/timed in the blog on October 10, October 16, and today/yesterday.
Check it below. It is real-time, live and in public domain. For all to read (and make profits from)!
Stock Trading | Forex | Financial Markets: Stock market bottom price prediction october 2008 (third visit to the bottom)
hahaha, nope , no monkey. I just couldnt believe that I fired up CR while here at work and a thread with no comments was there. I just had to nemo it.
Ahh, The Simpsons. Matt Groening for President!!
Thank you CR for this forum. I want to share this site with everyone. Actually, I want to slap this site into everyone's face, then maybe people will get it.
Bart. We're all fascists now. What can we do but continue to short it?
rsj- still going to school and looking for a career?
Who knew...the Simpsons is a reality show.
It is already the bottom, as predicted/timed in the blog on October 10, October 16, and today/yesterday.
I want to believe you jim, I really do. But first I need help getting a two week old inverted hammer rectal probe removed. Can financialtraders help with that?
These clips are hilarious CR, thank you.
For those who bought Greenpan's book..
Wipe you ass on the first page, and mail it back to the publisher...
That would send a message !
This Goat belongs in Wrigley Field...HANGING from a flagpole!
I just had to nemo it.
great use of the word!
Inspired by the spirit of American entrepreneurial zeal, I implant a kaleidoscope inside my magic 8 ball. I then ask questions like: WHERE is the bottom? The answer comes back in multicolored collages of triangles, rectangles, half moons and stars. Running the code through propriety encryption technology the answer reveals itself: At what point? I hate it when a question gets answered by a question.
Unsatisfied with relativistic reality I ask again. WHEN will this end? Once again rolling that magic eight ball down the length of an aisle into ten left over promotional cozy duplexes, held together by rolled up promotional literature. The sphere knocks down six pins before coming to rest in a cubical filled with hard drive erased Dell computers. This time the answer is predominantly ruby octagons with emerald inserts. Translation: When stocks equal rocks. Mystic forces with attitude make me cranky.
WHO is responsible for this carnage? Flinging the magic 8 ball into a stack of bankers boxes filled with approved loan files it rebounds as if coming off a BRIC wall. The jolt has the kaleidoscope knocked slightly out of alignment. The reds and greens appear to be a reflection of a pattern of a reflection of a pattern of a reflection of a pattern. The first run through the analyzer appears to point at every step of the process. I think, that cant be right. How could everyone screw up?
Ahh, The Simpsons. Matt Groening for President!!
DOH!
Sideshow Bob for president.
Fascism is now official ideology. FED prints money. Halliburton shares will quadruple next 12 mths. Purchasing power of J6P will halve over next 12 mths.
Short SPX. Long gold.
Buy Fleckensteins book about Greenspan "Greenspans Bubbles" instead. What a week, can we have any more fun next week? Gonna look for a movie on cable now.
YouTube - The Late Show- Halloween Costumes 2007
The Late Show with Letterman
Halloween 2007
Alan Greespan at 3:10
When Greenspan leaves this veil of tears, he should be given the Lenin embalming/preservation, and laid out on the trading floor of the NY stock exchange with a continuous video of his "I was shocked" testimony continuously playing as a warning about ideologicial hubris.
Round up the usual suspects.
I was trying to remember what this:
'John McCain was never tortured in my jail, says Tran Trong Duyet
reminded me of. Suddenly it came to me:
Swiftboating - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
We are so completely screwed it's not even funny.
Anyone who thinks USA has been or is a free market economy needs their head examined. Sadly that means 99.9% of the world.
Juan and Benito, how do we fix this?
This it what happens when you elect a California movie star president.
Words fail.
CC
U.S. has plundered world wealth with dlr -China paper
U.S. has plundered world wealth with dlr -China paper
| Reuters
The United States has plundered global wealth by exploiting the dollar's dominance, and the world urgently needs other currencies to take its place, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Friday.
The front-page commentary in the overseas edition of the People's Daily said that Asian and European countries should banish the U.S. dollar from their direct trade relations for a start, relying only on their own currencies.
A meeting between Asian and European leaders, starting on Friday in Beijing, presented the perfect opportunity to begin building a new international financial order, the newspaper said. ...
"The world is waiting for this Asian-European meeting to achieve big results in financial cooperation."
Good luck with that.
It is a very important expression of sentiment from ROW with huge consequences down the line for world financial markets. I don't think most in U.S. appreciate the anger that has built up and will continue to build as this calamity drags on.
It will be blamed just about uniquely on the U.S. and its form of capitalism.
"Conservatives love to lecture us all on how individuals should take personal responsiblity and not rely on the nanny state to protect them from the consequences of their own actions.
But hey City banker with two mansions, kids' private school fees and a coke habit to support please give generously Joe Taxpayer.
What you expect me and my boys to pay our fair share of the higher taxes to pay down the public sector debt run up to clear up this clusterfuck we caused. Sorry. My money's in the Caymans and when property and share prices hit bottom me and my oligarch friends will buy up YOUR houses and YOUR failed businesses on the cheap and start again.
Hey I'm pure evil, you losers that's why I became a Conservative. There's only one thing the ruling class has a duty to preserve: our bank balances.
What's that you say? Cut down on Trident here or US overseas bases there to get the budget in better shape? Nope, that would get in the way of murdering Arabs and stealing their oil. oops sorry "humanitarian intervention"
Spin on it suckers"
-Atilla
Thanks bro.
RE writes:
"It will be blamed just about uniquely on the U.S. and its form of capitalism."
This is truly the unfortunate part and most of the US population feel anger towards the situation as well. Watch the vote turnout, as proof of this.
But the anger exists because the world placed certain expectations on the US and those expectations were not met.
This shows at least 2 things:
1) The expectation being there in the first place illustrate the fact that the world looked and probably still looks to the US for leadership.
2) That the world likes to party as much as anyone, just as long as there is booze around, but then has the nasty habit of blaming its hangover on the bartender.
I love the audience in some of these hearings. Half are asleep... who are these people!?
"Chill Bear Dope writes:
The West always make the fatal mistake of not understanding China's craving for "face."
China always makes the fatal mistake of not realizing the West doesn't give a sh!t about face."
I think this is the crux of why we could be in for a real TSHTF moment as everything comes to a head.
What happens when the West pushes for something in negotiations and China refuses to back down over face?
I would not underestimate the possibility of a major financial blowup over something as simple as logic versus face.
major financial blowup over something as simple as logic versus face.
more like US ideology vs ROW pragmatism
1) The expectation being there in the first place illustrate the fact that the world looked and probably still looks to the US for leadership.
2) That the world likes to party as much as anyone, just as long as there is booze around, but then has the nasty habit of blaming its hangover on the bartender.
I totally disagree with point 1 but fully agree with point 2.
The world is not looking for U.S. guidance anymore. It will look with a much more tolerable eye at an Obama administration but overall the U.S. is now so mistrusted at so many levels that leadership is simply not in the cards. The downfall of U.S. preeminence was started with the Iraq fiasco and will be significantly exacerbated by this crisis.
"major financial blowup over something as simple as logic versus face."
I disagree because:
face != pragmatism
not giving a sh*t about face != logic
It seems more like:
face == pride/stubborness
not giving a sh*t about face == pragmatism
"not giving a sh*t about face == pragmatism"
Well GWB clearly doesn't care about face, but I would say he's an idealist, not pragmatist. His father was more pragmatic if you ask me.
Re: Those waiting for a crash
Doesn't it seem like there are a lot of people who have flipped from a long position to a short position?
Just looking at the double-short ETFs, I don't want to say "over-sold", but for example they do represent leveraged short positions in the real world. As more people buy short positions or short ETF doesn't it act as some type of floor as some people choose to get out of their short positions?
I think some one else mentioned the trouble they were buying puts (Misean?). SOrry, I'm not a trader and have been reading here since 2005... but lately CR has expanded coverage beyond housing and attracted a broad set of commenters.
James K. Galbraith talks about "The Predator State" on Bill Moyers Journal @ PBS.org, if anyone is interested. An easy-to-understand overview of what's happening with the economy. Also a few other interesting segments.
Rob Dawg writes:
Spider-chairman, spider-chairman
Does whatever a spider-chairman does...
That would appear to be very little, at least in the way of effective regulation.
Also, a question.
I shared last night (or maybe two nights ago?) my position regarding an inheritance. When the shares are eventually transferred (this week!) do I have to wait 3 days for settlement or can I sell shares right away??
Spider-chairman, spider-chairman
Does whatever a spider-chairman does...
That would appear to be very little, at least in the way of effective regulation.
Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 2:02 am | #
The "original" goes on, something like-
Can he swing from a thread? No he can't, he's just a chairman,...
YLSP,
It depends on the shares...while I think selling might generally might be a good idea, and having just gone on through a similar death in a family, the old fashioned portfolio builder types (as you described) seemed to buy good stocks that might be unfairly beaten down.
Hi sdtfs
Yup, working nights full time, part-time school in the evenings and a part time internship during the day.
Pretty full days, but leading to a worthwhile outcome. ( hopefully)
Plus it is spread out in such a way that I still am able to be an ok mom. Not an outstanding super-mom, but a good-enough mom. hehehe.
Sorry but if the Simpson's are equivalent to sub-prime, then Family Guy is equivalent to the full faith and credit of pre 1971 US denominated currency.
Backed by prominent religious and political figures.
And God when he's not concerned with arranging uniquely hellish conditions in the afterlife for Keynesian economists.
I think I've finally figured out why this whole thing isn't really going to work (and I don't believe I'm the first.) That said, Im going to try to articulate it tomorrow. I suspect it will be a far cry from a Conjure Communique, but I hope some people will take a whack at it....
Yeah, well we should've all agreed just to sell months ago... I didn't realize it was taking so freaking long. But if we sold when my relative passed, we would've avoided this 25% drop that just impacted the whole market. Dumb, dumb, dumb, dumb. I saw the stagnation but had no idea that everything would come apart so quickly... seemed like a safe bet that Bush would try everything to keep stocks afloat until 2009.
I'm looking to sell 75% of what I get at least. When I received stocks in the past I'd like to balance out and not sell off certain stocks, but I've already identified one... Citigroup that I'd sell off the whole thing... I mean they are gonna get diluted.
He did invest in a lot of blue chips... but last time I talked to him he said he hadn't managed his portfolio for 5 years or so. Was just giving away everything to grandchildren. There's a lot of Wal-Mart, Coke, Boeing, Philip Morris... but also a lot of mutual funds which I don't want any part of.
I already sold most of what he gifted to me over my life out of necessity. Then when I realized what was going on last year I cashed out most of the rest this January.
I'm gonna take a lot of proceeds and put it into paper silver or paper gold and then put a lot into CDs/cash. I'm not convinced we are near a "bottom"... I just want to get the F out like months ago!
ac, well put.
YLSP- Not to make light of your troubles, but some of us wouldn't mind being in your position even so.
In all fairness, "face" cannot be characterized purely as "pride/stubborness", and it is not a flaw, at least not in all cases. In some cases it is to be commended and it is something that the West could use more of.
Let me explain...
Pride can come in many forms. But the form exhibited by GWD is clearly not "face". But that is an uninteresting topic...
The pride associated with "face" comes from the belief that your action or your thinking was safe, lacked any sort of greed, was not overreaching (e.g. for return). At the same time it requires subjects to observe and to jundge you and the outcome of your action.
But when your action is proven wrong or inpruent, and even detremental to your subjects, then "face" is lost. "Face" simply evaporates. It's quite fascinating...
"Face" requires the pretense of utilitarianism and the pride of narcissism. And it is a heavy burden to bear.
YLSP,
Keep the post spin Phillip Morris International shares, sell 1/2 altria, sell 1/2 coke, keep boeing (worst time to sell - but get out in the mid-60's-70's); WMT sell or keep doesnt matter; While not a bouyer of Citi until it hits $10, I wouldnt sell, if you think that goes to $5, all of the above stocks ares 40-60% dow
ac, well put.
Comrade Peronista
Just to be clear, I don't believe in God or the afterlife, and I'm not trying to promote any sort of religious beliefs.
I'm just saying that as human beings we need to be rational and understand that advocates of Keynesian economics are doomed to burn in hell for all of eternity.
I don't think what you're discussing here as "face" has anything like the cultural implications in China or Japan, more particularly Japan.
anya writes:
Good description of face
Well said.
"Face" simply evaporates. It's quite fascinating...
Not as mysterious if you consider the "respect" aspect. Self-respect and society's respect. These things also seem to evaporate when someone is 'dissed'.
anya writes:
As a response to RE:
This shows at least 2 things:
1) The expectation being there in the first place illustrate the fact that the world looked and probably still looks to the US for leadership.
2) That the world likes to party as much as anyone, just as long as there is booze around, but then has the nasty habit of blaming its hangover on the bartender.
No. 1 is the problem. The US is the worst leader , bar everyone else. It is the failure of the rest of the world to supply a real alternative that is the real dilemma.
Banana
sdtfs,
To be honest I probably sound like a jerk, and sometimes feel like a jerk trying to "get my money before it goes up in smoke", especially to my uncle. It's hard to balance, "I sympathize with your loss, thank you for dealing with probate" and "hey man, why is it taking so long?! its a trust!"
Honestly I would rather have my grandfather around for a few more Christmas', Thanksgivings, and birthdays... he was a Blessing... not sure how he could've raised such a great daughter who turned out to be my mom. Myself, wife and our first got to see him 2 weeks before he passed... in fact he had just seen a Dr a few days before he passed... I'm so glad we made it a priority and it was completely worth taking a 2-year-old on a LAX-IAD flight... he was an older-2 and maybe his 4th or 5th time on an airplane...
I'm at the point where I could weather more losses but do not want to at all. Of course its probably not as much as you might think it is; but to me it is a great windfall. I'll be able to use it to pay off my evil credit card debt and have a decent emergency fund and hopefully a little something nice. The credit card debt has been bloody weighing me down for 3 years. Had no debt until I got married 4 years ago! I guess technically I've actually paid off $15k in debt since I was married... women are great...
It is the failure of the rest of the world to supply a real alternative that is the real dilemma.
Oh sure, blame the victim.
Just kidding,...I think.
Had no debt until I got married 4 years ago! I guess technically I've actually paid off $15k in debt since I was married... women are great...
Ditto, six years ago. Married, then a child. I know we paid off some old student loans,...I don't know how much, but it's ballpark to yours.
Two years ago her Dad died; the life insurance paid out. Let's just say no matter what the sum, it's not enough and has potential to really mess up family relationships (even without the circumstances surrounding the death.)
Just a gentle reminder that family is more important than money.
Oh, and on our way to his funeral I got the word that my dad died. I, too, am glad that he got to see his granddaughter before he died (I'm thinking he had probably given up on me as a source for grandchildren years ago.)
sdtfs writes:
It is the failure of the rest of the world to supply a real alternative that is the real dilemma.
Oh sure, blame the victim.
Just kidding,...I think.
Yes, you do understand
Bananas
sdtfs wrote: I don't think what you're discussing here as "face" has anything like the cultural implications in China or Japan, more particularly Japan.
Well said: Here's two samples of saving face:
Japanese example
And
Chinese example.
(I was going to write my own blurb but I'll save that for another time. Maybe on my blog... Good night, y'all.)
Are you saying that the Chinese will loose face if we point out to them that their per capita income is less than 5% of the United States?
Makes them look rather unproductive. Yeah, American Capitalism sucks. But, even with the looters in charge, it doesn't suck like Chinese Capitalism does.
China's national per capita income reaches $1,740(08/18/06)
Sorry Ben, republics are so 18th century.
Here's a link that might work:
China's national per capita income reaches $1,740(08/18/06)
God morning world.
So now Treasury is also going to bail out big insurance companies like Hartford and MetLife, as well as bond insurers Ambac and MBIA?
Oh, wait, before we get to them, AIG is complaining that $123 billion isn't enough. (The misers at Treasury initially provided only $85 billion.)
The Big 3 automakers applied early, and it looks as if GE will soon join them in line.
Then various states and counties and municipalities begin filing up to the window with hats in hand.
And don't forget the PBGC - a sure thing there - as well as the DB pension funds.
Pretty soon we'll have replaced that entire 100 trillion of quasi-money.
Then things'll be normal again.
Is there a Princeton connection with the whole Krugman/Bank of Sweden Prize in Honor of Blah Blah...
Per Krusell ~ Princeton University and IIES
This fellow was on the prize committee in the past, and he currently works at princeton.
What is hidden behind that beard?
quattro
How can Greenspan blame the current economic crisis to bad data? Any one having any common sense should have seen it coming.
Global Economic Meltdown Dont Blame it on Bad Data, Blame it on Common Sense
http://sonyvellayani.blogspot.com/2008/10/global-economic-meltdown-dont-blame-it.html
ac, well put again.
Also good to see that the nationalists and protectionists are back. I was afraid we had lost the plot.
I'm sure this has been done before, but I'd like to see a picture of a guy named Art, captioned: "Art Imitates Life"
Plus anyone else notice the irony in his use of "shocked"? Naomi Klein's Shock Doctrine talks about the use of shock to soften people up and prepare them for herding. Here Greenspan is the one saying he was shocked.
Check out the latest monetary base from St.Louis FED (use google). That is the scariest thing I have seen since Evita was Minister of Finance. I hate those Hobos.
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But, even with the looters in charge, it doesn't suck like Chinese Capitalism does.
The Chinese have 1.3B mouths to feed. You try running a wealth-creating economy at that population density.
Shit, if it weren't for the Chinese making all our stuff in sweatshop work conditions we wouldn't even had had an economy over the passed 10 years.
Truly amazing! Who would've ever thought that this could have happened in consideration that there was never any oversight and you could borrow money, at will, for nearly free.
John Authers blaims the yen carry trade and shows some nice correlating graphs.
FT.com / Short View
Sorry, that last anonymous link was me.
Anyone who thinks USA has been or is a free market economy needs their head examined. Sadly that means 99.9% of the world.
Juan and Benito, how do we fix this?
First, we tell all the Ayn Rand arseholesniffers to STFU, and the we make sure we mock them every time they pipe up again.
They're no different from the Trotskyite morans who whinge that "Real Communism has never been tried properly" and thus there's nothing wrong with it, other than our insufficient zeal.
Oh wait---there is a difference: all seven of those commies are making tofu goulash with dreadlock chunks in their college vegan store. But there are zillions of true-beleving laissez-faire bots running the country down the tubes.
Dr Chaos, the problem lies in central bank money printing and banks (guaranteed by gov't) leveraging 10 or 40 to 1. Agree?
Recent CR favorites:
And, in honor of Chilean Economic Policy: La Pequeña diosa del caño
Picking up from the previous thread, where Barley pointed out the unhappy German blaming him personnally for the ROW troubles. Where I work(London) about half the staff are French and I have several Germans in my team. I can tell you the anger is palpable throughout the office. To those of you who dismissively say "we didn't have to buy your crap" I would say yes that's true but the US is in a unique position. By demanding political and dollar hegemony you have put yourself in a position of leadership. You must act like leaders if you want to stay there. Ask yourself if the US recently has behaved like a leader. I was sensing a lot of uber-patriotism on the last thread. Maybe I was just misreading (easy on the internet) or maybe this is just pre-election fervour. But frankly, those of you who think the US is the center of the universe, that there is nowhere else on the planet fit to live or invest, that Europe is going to let its multi-decade euro project collapse due to the misbehaviour of a few US bankers and that the dollar is entitled to maintain its dominance just becuase, well just because its the dollar, you need to get over yourselves and get out more. With great power comes great responsibility, and the US needs to get its f**king act together and start behaving like the leader it thinks it is if you hope to ever have the respect of the ROW again.
Ask yourself if the US recently has behaved like a leader. I was sensing a lot of uber-patriotism on the last thread.
I don't think anyone here is trying to defend what the US did. Some like me are not financially savvy but figured out something was wrong. This is early 04. The blogs helped us connect the dots.
Now step aside and we have countries like Germany, France with 100s of PhDs looking at risk management. What the f were these guys doing to stop the farce? They didn't want to look at the other side until things got bad. Why did they wait so long?
Complaining about US leadership to us is like singing to the quier.
REBear, you got that right. Very few in Europe understands the danger of money and credit inflation. Same goes for USA.
Regulation (and lower growth) will be the answer. But what bubble will come out of what BB does now? Please identify the next bubble and start regulating it.
RE:
I completely agree about the dire consequences for the US as the USD slips away. The worldwide contempt for the US is palpable.
Comrade Peronista writes:
Very few in Europe understands the danger of money and credit inflation.
Seems like Sarkozy does understand:
"Asian and European leaders agreed that the rules guiding the global economy should be rewritten".
Watch out!
Ahah : )
-Breaking news-
Lost in a thread before, there was some report of the collapse of Volvo trucks sales in Europe during 2008 Q3.
2007 Q3 : 41,970
2008 Q3 : 115 (-99.7 %)
These numbers can be found here:
Considerably weaker demand in Europe - Nine months ended September 30, 2008 - Volvo
It seems that customers of Volvo negociated to cancel or delay 20,000 orders previously filled for 2008 Q3.
Orders intakes for Daimler in Europe are only down 56% for 2008 Q3.
Back to our normal schedule with Homer Simpson and Alan Greenspan on the CR channel.
Too funny, CR
I would like to thank Dr Chaos for articulating what I have been thinking since I started reading economics blogs last winter and never before saw so much free market ideology (mostly in comments).
Bubble of American Supremacy writes:
"Seems like Sarkozy does understand:
"Asian and European leaders agreed that the rules guiding the global economy should be rewritten"."
This agreement may only survive 15 minutes into actual negotiations.
One of the largest source of instability in the global financial system is the tendency of certain Asian countries to peg their currencies at such a low level that they end up with a trade surplus of 10% of GDP or so.
How much agreement will there be to stop that?
Arguably, there may be regulatory changes facing banks and other entities like hedge funds, but those moves will largely consist of bolting the stable door after the horse is off in the next county. As long as huge trade imbalances need to be financed, the system will be unstable.
On Topic: Those vids were great, CR.
Nice to see a clip of The Simpsons from the early 90's, when it was a smart, funny show. God I hate the naughty aughties!
All you bond people... Bill Gross, and his Roubini love child El-Erian have been very quiet for the last few days. Making me nervous. What are they up to?
Hitler was not solely, singularly responsible for the holocaust--and Greenspan isn't the only composer of our economic demise. Congress critters--especially Bush appeasers--and Bush himself, birthed this baby. The press cheered it on, backed by the U of Chicago. The telling fact was that not enough people seemed to go apeshit when every year showed a drop in real incomes. How could asset prices go up when consumer income kept falling, kiting a check is an old identifiable criminal act. The pols and the media are complicit, the old man sounds like a fool today because his gibberish was exalted so much before.
The oracle had no clothes for a long time--a very long time. He was to finance what Kissinger was to foreign affairs--praised and always wrong.
CityGirl, Bernanke just added a zero to the monetary base. I hope the money goes to the poor.
Uncle Billy, Rater Hater writes:
"All you bond people... Bill Gross, and his Roubini love child El-Erian have been very quiet for the last few days. Making me nervous. What are they up to?"
Taking their private jets to the Bankerdome?
Good Morning all.
Enjoy
Unless you're Australian. Then, I guess, not so much.
Premier of "Monger"
YouTube - MONGER
Apparently even Yemenites mong. Mong mong mong.
Good Morning all.
<a href="http://cryptogon.com/?p=4637>Enjoy.
Unless you're Australian. Then, I guess, not so much.
Rent to own. You're correct.
Mel writes:
Hitler was not solely, singularly responsible for the holocaust.
And Stalin was not solely, singularly responsible for the Holodomor,
but then again he was an ally of america (and therefore never mentioned).
Free markets in dance lead to this sort of behavior:
YouTube - Three by Ohad Naharin, Batsheva Dance Company
But what bubble comes out of what BB does now? Please identify the next bubble and start regulating it.
I have an answer so obvious I think I must be mistaken. US Treasuries along with dollar and yen FX are inflating furiously. There is no thought here of attempting regulation as this administration imagines these developments constitute a solution.
They may imagine a future downgrade of US Treasury debt or a collapse of the dollar can be managed. The track record to date, however, suggests otherwise.
Comrade Peronista, I know where the money is going and I know it's not going to the poor.
Are you saying that the Central Banks are the problem? Maybe, but the deregulation of the financial industry and "supply-side" economics over the last 28 years seem to have had a lot to do with it as well.
Frankly, I'd prefer a european style social democracy.
Since I continue to read these blogs and often read the comments I'm interested in hearing all sides, but I've seen nothing yet to really challenge that preference.
Do y'all realize the wholesale gasoline contract closed Friday @ $1.45? That means gas under 2 bucks in many U.S. regions come sooner than later. Anyone have video of James Kunstler's head exploding?
Having spent 4 years in P King, have to say some of the commentary about the middle kingdom is off base.
However, if Ch goes aggressive, it'll be the unwinding of 30 years of Dengist policy.
Consider that.
CC
Let's vote on our favorite european style democracy.
I'm for Denmark, home of the happiest people on earth. (Well a documentary said they were). Trouble is that they're a homogeneous society and we're not. It's been demonstrated that people do not like to pay taxes for people that aren't like them. Solution: tons of intermarriage in this generation, pinks with greens, zoroastrians with maronites, etc. We can solve this problem within two or three generations.
hello!
found this movie about the financial crisis on youtube. it gave some interesting perspectives on the situation:
YouTube - Managing the Financial Crisis
What is with this notion that banks were deregulated? The entire housing bubble was in response to government meddling in the market. You disallow
interest deductions on consumer loans
and voila, Helocs appear. You lower interest rates and capital gains tax on residential real estate and, mirabile dictu, housing prices shoot up. You mandate banks make credit available to people further down the income ladder and, presto, subprime is born.
The housing and credit bubbles did not develop because 'banks' invented them. They were the ineluctable result of political and monetary decisions made by our regulatory authorities.
Uncle B--My mantra since being a teen--Fucking will set you free!!!
"Let's vote on our favorite european style democracy.
I'm for Denmark, home of the happiest people on earth. (Well a documentary said they were). Trouble is that they're a homogeneous society and we're not. It's been demonstrated that people do not like to pay taxes for people that aren't like them. Solution: tons of intermarriage in this generation, pinks with greens, zoroastrians with maronites, etc. We can solve this problem within two or three generations.
Uncle Billy, Rater Hater | Homepage | 10.25.08 - 9:52 am | #
LOL Uncle B, Mel - what was that movie with Warren Beatty as some pol advocating that policy?
That would make a nice clip, just sayin'...
That means gas under 2 bucks in
now all that's needed is some cash in the publics pocket, and they can afford more of it.
I think I like the Mr Magoo comparisons better.
Wow... I'm channeling Warren Beatty? Not good; he's creepy. He walked up to my dad's girlfriend, years ago, and started to hit on her right in front of him.
"...the result of political and monetary decisions made by our regulatory authorities", written by the lobbyists of corporations who would benefit. So, let's get real, shall we?
Just remember: "government meddling" is code for "regulation.
OE,
Employment, incomes, and credit fueled consumption...none of those are looking good for cash in J6P pocket - but hey at least there are those market gains to bank - wait, never mind...
The evidence strongly suggests that without the excess demand from securitizers, subprime mortgage originations (undeniably the original source of the crisis) would have been far smaller and defaults accordingly far lower, he said."
Alan Greenspa
Comrade Peronista,
What do you see as the solution to the problems associated with fiat money? Back on the gold standard?
thx,
Imelda
Unit 472 wrote
"The entire housing bubble was in response to government meddling in the market....You mandate banks make credit available to people further down the income ladder and, presto, subprime is born."
i challenge you to show me the law, regulation or executive directive that required or induced mortgage originators to loan money based on liar loan statements or to people determined to be at an inordinately higher risk to default.
i blame the government for much of what has happened but i have seen little in the way of convincing evidence that the government forced wall street to bundle and securitize loans into complex and exotic instruments. Wall street demanded more mortgages to bundle and tranche.
loan originators and banks did not have to hold loans on their books and received enticing origination fees.
these and other factors including low FF rate drove the reckless loan originations.
CRA did not require loans to those not qualified. CRA required that banks could not redline an entire neighborhood, refusing to loan to qualified individuals because statistically their neighbors may be less than cherry risks.
Unit 472 writes: The housing and credit bubbles did not develop because 'banks' invented them. They were the ineluctable result of political and monetary decisions made by our regulatory authorities.
That damn gubernmint made me make lousy financial products so we could pump the commish and write ourselves large bonuses. Now if we could get that damn gubermint ta stop stealing money from us by "taxing" us.
We'd like to be able to blame Greenspan, as if he were a god, and had some kind of total control.
There was no crystal ball, and jobs didn't begin to pick up until late in 2003, right?
So if someone would loan you yourself money at 1%, would you take the maximum loan and bet it all? If so, and if you then lost the bet, was that the lender's fault?
If you would do this, would you in fact not make the bet if the money was at 3.5% instead of 1%???
SALESMAN (laughs): I'm not gonna quote you a price till I check your credit rating. And let me --- I want to make myself clear on this. This is a formality. If you're saying to me, "Bob, is this guy good for it?", I say, "Yes.". I don't check this machine, but I don't own the place, even though's my name up there. Long story, but that doesn't matter. I'm gonna have to run it through the computer.
The salesman presses Enter and suddenly, a loud siren erupts.
HOMER: Is that a good siren? Am I approved?
SALESMAN: You ever know a siren to be good? (chuckles). No, Mr. Simpson, it's not. It's a bad siren. That's the computer in case I went blind, telling me "Sell the vehicle to this fella and you're out of business!". That's what the siren says.
HOMER: Oh.
SALESMAN: Seems the Ultimate Behemoth is a wee bit out of your price range. And "wee bit" is me being polite. You couldn't afford this thing if you lived to be a million.
Anthony M. Freed @ 12:25 am
Thanks. I needed that.
"It's been demonstrated that people do not like to pay taxes for people that aren't like them."
I've heard this argument many times, however it is beginning to sound like the argument that "Americans won't vote for a black man for president."
As a city girl I rub elbows (literally. ha!) with all kinds of people every day, and it doesn't bother me at one bit that I pay taxes for them (and them for me).
"that someone here hasnt been braggin about how they make the "straddle' pay"
Hey! I have been doing this every Friday before market close for the past month. So far, I have been able to cash out in both directions with a 75% gain before the following Friday.
It has been the only place I have been making any money in a while.
Uncle Billy, Rater Hater @ 9:52 am
Remember "Bullworth" the movie with Warren Beatty, the senator talks the insurance company into giving him huge life insurance coverage, then he arranges to have himself killed. Then he stays awake so long worrying about when he's going to get hit, that he goes kind of nuts. Plus his new black girlfriend (the hit man actually) helps get him stoned.
In a TV interview he is asked for his beliefs and he says he believes in "sexually determined, racial desegregration" or some such. When asked what he means he say, "We just have to keep f*cking each other until we're all the same color."
"The entire housing bubble was in response to government meddling in the market....You mandate banks make credit available to people further down the income ladder and, presto, subprime is born."
Is this what FOX news is peddling these days? It seems that Greenspan would disagree.
The Big Picture
@Throw out your dead writes:
"Just remember: "government meddling" is code for regulation."
Yeah! Down with big government!
P.S. Where is my bailout check?
Please keep the comedy coming. At this point it's all we have left to invest in.
When my younger daughter was working as a research associate at the Fed some years ago, I asked her what the staff economists she worked with (certainly not right-wing ideologues) thought of Greenspan, and learned that they all had great respect for him (which doesn't imply they all agreed completely with his policies). These were people working in a wing not much more than a hundred or so steps from his office, who regularly gave presentations at meetings he chaired.
Nowhere have I ever heard or read a negative comment about his treatment of other people. I have read some rather positive comments.
Though I disagreed strongly with his low-interest-rate policies, and I despise Ayn Rand's philosophy, I see no compelling evidence to support any conclusion other than that Greenspan is something of an idealist who really is shocked by this.
Consider that Greenspan would be vastly wealthier had he left the Fed much earlier. Although political power has its attractions, they are stronger than the attractions of big money only to people who really believe they are embarked on a greater cause, and wish to have a good opinion of themselves and be respected by others.
Consider also that he has just admitted he was very wrong about something very important, and has reversed himself on the need for regulation. How many people in public life at his level ever do that?
As someone else pointed out recently, Greenspan is not a true Randian. If he were, he would be praising and congratulating those clever Wall Streeters who've ripped the world off.
While I certainly don't believe Greenspan was so naive as to think all bank executives honest, I suspect he thought the behavior we've seen the exception rather than the rule.
actually, AG's comments reminded me of this scene from anchorman - "60 per cent of the time, it works every time". Dr Greenspan even got the % right
YouTube -
coolie kidbuck said:
republics are so 18th century.
The nihilism Nietzsche found in our age would mean not so much that traditional values have broken down as that a value system necessary for our complicated civilization has not yet evolved. Operating the colossal social structures of our time with the ethical concepts of a nomadic bronze-age society of three thousand years ago is like operating a nuclear reactor with the technology of a bushman .Moral exhortation to the individual and even his personal honesty are patently ineffective; the problem is to expand moral codes to the inclusion of higher social entities, and, at the same time, safeguard the individual from being devoured by the social Leviathan.
Ludwig von Bertalanffy (1901-1972)
these and other factors including low FF rate drove the reckless loan originations.
CRA did not require loans to those not qualified. CRA required that banks could not redline an entire neighborhood, refusing to loan to qualified individuals because statistically their neighbors may be less than cherry risks.
Plus also the 2001-2003 tax cuts. Lowering the tax burden freed capital that could either go into consumption (eg. larger house in a better neighborhood) or investment (2nd house, income properties).