The IMF has more than $200 billion of loanable funds and can draw on additional resources through two standing borrowing arrangements with groups of IMF member countries.
Along the lines of Nemo's question, how much funding does the IMF have available?
I am under the distinct impression that it does not have access to Ben Bernanke's Remarkable Patented Printing Press; which raises the question of how many such bailouts they will be able to do--and which also raises the question of if further deterioration could render the IMF insolvent.
Bond Girl just answered one of my questions. But access to standing borrowing arrangements from other countries? I would be interested to know which countries are doing so well that they have extra money to lend the IMF.
Just read an excellant piece on the emerging market debt crisis by Ambrose
Evans Pritchard in the Telegraph.
Apparently it is far larger than the US mortgage debt problem and the exposure is concentrated in Western European banks. Pritchard notes Austria's exposure is 85% of GDP, Switzerland 50%, Sweden 25%, UK 24% though British exposure is mostly in Asia not Eastern Europe.
This looks like the next shoe to drop on the global financial system.
I guess that means that McBush's fantasy of Ukraine and Georgia's entry into NATO as a full member (capable of meeting the military standards) will need to be postponed while the banks go ahead of the military in line for upgrade.
Volker the Viking writes:
What happened to the baseball metaphors? Everybody asks which inning we're in and the freaking National Anthem hasn't played yet.
Oh... The Anthem's been played a while ago. The issue is that the visitors are going to bat around during the 5th and everyone knows it.
I assume people have seen Mish's article about the funds extracted from Australian insurance companies due to the unintended consequences of deposit insurance... Yep. Not at the bottom.
if we forget that currency crises can overwhelm credit crises, which can overwhelm equity crises
we are doomed to repeat them
why not post it again:
I don't think this is correct. If you hold a 2% bond, you get 2% of the bonds inflation adjusted principal. If the inflation adjusted principal is 90, you get 2% of 90. If the bond were redeemed the same year, you would get 100.
That's why the G20 on 11/15 is so important. Question is: will Bush be there as the sitting president, or will he hand the reins to the winner?
Basel Too | 10.26.08 - 2:48 pm | #
I heard he would invite the winner assuming there is one by then.
The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
The IMF is irrelevant.. They are pretending that they are not the walking dead. Nice try.. but the current economic crisis cannot he fixed by bankrupt losers. The key to economic growth now is creating jobs and increasing consumption in all countries, even the so called 'poor' countries. Of that does not happen soon, the whole system will fall apart so badly that putting it together may take over a generation.. at least.
I agree with your hypothesis, but not the conclusion. McNailin is done/finished. The election is over. Now will somebody please take down all the friggin' signs and end the commercials. Kthxbai.
As in my state of MN, it doesn't matter how many reluctant Obama voters there are, the dem. ticket is gonna carry most states electoral votes without difficulty. Landslide is the term that fits here. Won't be decided in the courts. Maybe some usual voter fraud and whatever 2008's 'hanging chad,' buzzword will be. And you can take that to the bank, assuming any are solvent on Nov.5.
--
Looks like that the whole world would need a bailout. So much for the experiment in Finance-Controlled capitalism.
The financial markets have become the Achilles hill of the real economies everywhere.
America WILL take everyone with it. The question is: Who would come out looking better? A: None of the current democracies. No? Undisciplined and unruly middle-class democratic people when they don't have money for necessities? That is the DANGER ahead.
Alloy for allay and this toolth for that soolth. Lick it and like it. A barter, a parter. And plenty good enough, neighbour Norreys, every bit and grain.
On the subject of Emerging markets AND the upcoming Fed meeting:
What they have in common is a shortage of dollar liquidity created by the combination of de-levering AND dollar cash hoarding. The two factors together causing the velocity of money to crash.
The Fed has a problem. Their preferred solution was to turn the institution into a gigantic bank that would absorb the brunt of the de-levering. The idea was to borrow form banks and Treasury, and then buy securities of every stripe to cushion the de-levering process.
Unfortunately, the "big bank" idea has caused velocity to crash. Banks are parking all their liquidity at the Fed, and they feel "safe" enough to bankrupt their customers by cutting off credit. We don't see the cut-off in the official numbers because its (temporarily) offset by big corporations drawing on bank credit lines. But once those lines are drawn down, bank credit data will show a plunge.
So what will (not should, mind you) the Fed do about it? They know they can't fight de-levering. That means they have to address the second element: cash hoarding.
How do you get people to stop hoarding cash?
Promise them inflation by any means necessary.
Didn't Japan try that?
Not by any means necessary. Bernanke said as much himself in the 2002 BOJ deflation speech.
I'm surprised that none of these countries (Iceland, Ukraine, etc.) have figured out that they just need to introduce Powerball or the like to generate some revenues...
I hade NH in the O camp already with the rest of the NE.
The states to watch are Penna, Ohio, Florida, Missouri... and to a lesser extent W Va, Va, NC, Wisc & Iowa. I would not be shocked to see McC win ALL of them though IA & WI would be somewhat of a surprise.
Again - all of them have large rural & exurban voter blockss who are going to be very hard to poll accurately. If they show up and vote - I think O has trouble from an electoral vote perspective. He still could win the popular vote w/ landslides in places like NY & Cali.
The rubes are pretty disillusioned though and might not show up.
We'll see. I've been wrong before (2006 - didn't believe the dems would sweep both houses).
The headline actually should read: IMF to Impoverish and Destroy the Poeple Of Ukraine". What a disaster. Slavery was never really abolished, it was simply revolutionized in 1913 and made official when Nixon took US off the gold standard. IMF is one of the Parasites who help keep or re-work the world order into what the US thinks it should be.
so a capital flight from emerging markets. funny thing tough, slovakian state bonds could not be sold 6 months ago, because we had too good rating and the yield was too low.
From what little i know of the japanese, their psyche is different.
If i am not mistaken, there was a time a 'bailout' was given to them and an elder japanese lady promptly returned the amount on account that she did not earn the money and therefore it wasn't hers to spend.
Of course i may be mistaken. Although a culture that will commit harakiri or seppuku is not a good case study for any economic plan that will be tried in the west.
The key to economic growth and stability is increased consumption. Now I know that some of you have issues with people who do not look like you having a good lifestyle. Many like to believe in some neo-malthusian fantasy. Some more believe that we know "all there is to know" and " we can predict the future". Then again hubris is not restricted to wallstreet types.
The sad reality is that humans (especially "experts") are very bad at predicting the future. Our most accurate predictions have a horizon of 5 (general) maybe 10 years (for specific areas). The history of mankind (not just the west) is littered with unanticipated deviationa from the course of events. One of the few common threads in human history is that every group that thought they had control and ultimate knowledge lost because of hubris induced comlpacency.
A lot of "peak this" and "peak that" is driven by people who think that others don't deserve it and "we know best". Such thinking on limits is particularly seductive to clever monkeys who have to maintain their relevance in heirarchy. then there is the second issue- that clever monkeys spend too much time trying to win the game, rather than create a better game.
But it always end the same way for all clever monkeys.. It has been since the begining of human history..
RE: eligibility, McCain has his own problem, what with being born in Panama.
The law concerning citizenship wasn't changed until several years after his birth outside the United States. I know, I know, technicality. Well, so what?
As in my state of MN, it doesn't matter how many reluctant Obama voters there are, the dem. ticket is gonna carry most states electoral votes without difficulty. - Sports Guy LaFleur
Where in MN? I live there too - in the SE part of the state (border of Congressional Dist 1 & Dist 2) - I know the city will go solidly 'O'... and the suburbs split. I think outstate will go MUCH stronger McPain than polls indicate. I still expect MN to go Obama but closer than people think.
IA, WI - I wouldn't bet regardless of what polls say.
Sorry dryfly - I didn't read your postings in the last thread before I wrote - don't want to beat a dead horse here. Of all the NE states, NH would have been probably the most likely to vote McCain, altho the influx of Mass. people has I believed changed a lot here politically.
Anyway, this seems to be a pretty good running count of where things stand:
I wonder if free market capitalism is itself only a ponzi scheme.
It works as long as there are new dopes to sell stuff to. When you run out of new dopes, a recession/depression results. The R/D resets the old dopes back into new dopes by taking their wealth back and the cycle repeats.
If the the cycles endures for 40 years or so, the masses don't remember that this keeps happening and we go blissfully on.
I think a new economic order is called for. Maybe Obama socialism would be a good thing.
Won't it be nice when the Franken/Coleman race is over? - Sports Guy LaFleur
Amen. - dryfly
Yeah right. If Franken loses, excuse me, has the election stolen from him we'll never hear the end of it. And if Franken wins then we'll never hear the end of him either.
Ukraine - Borderland, occupied and fought over for many centuries. That poor country. In modern times the victim of Stalin, Khrushchev, and the operators of Chernobyl.
There's an infamous photograph from the Soviet famine showing a close frame of two obviously mad peasants, a man and a woman, almost skeletons, sitting down, and between them a basin containing a human head partially immersed in blood.
"The question is: Who would come out looking better? A: None of the current democracies. No? Undisciplined and unruly middle-class democratic people when they don't have money for necessities? That is the DANGER ahead."
Absolutely, but don't underestimate the internal turmoil any country's political system faces in times of severe economic stress. On this point, you aren't pessimistic enough, Jas. At least democracy offers a pressure-release valve -- elections --coupled with the false sense that the ordinary guy has some real say in and control over his future.
And now I won't pollute this thread with the election anymore.
Outsider | 10.26.08 - 3:24 pm | #
If you aren't advocating - and I'm not either - it's not 'pollution'. Its analyzing the horse race.
Go to the site and use their polling data state by state - you can see the state by state numbs just by running the cursor over each state... add in a 'Bradley Effect' fudge factor & revisit your assumptions. I'm going w/ +/- 5% for rural states and less for large urban ones (say +/- 3%).
If that happens almost all the 'Leans Obama' and 'Toss Ups' end up as McC states. The electoral outcome is very different then.
"Yeah right. If Franken loses, excuse me, has the election stolen from him we'll never hear the end of it. And if Franken wins then we'll never hear the end of him either." - Rob Dawg
As another long term MN TC resident, from what I know of Coleman's history (from when he was mayor of St.Paul) that comment would fit Coleman's likely responses also.
The first bullets of the war on Syria/Iran have just been fired(also means market will be up as this indicates US still has money and defense business is back).
details below.
Took a cruise down the Dnieper from Kiev to the Crimea back in 93. Their historic currency had been the Hrivna (pronounced Grivna) before Soviet times.
In 93 they were using Carbovnets, literally coupons. When I arrived, they were 93 to the dollar and 3 weeks later at 115.
Ukraina is a torn country. Our State Dept. is trying to finish the job. The IMF are a bunch of freaking clowns.
My daughter who teaches school in Prague is enjoying the rise of the dollar. Eastern Europe including the Baltics are is a heap of hurt but they are relatively small in the scheme of things.
Yeah right. If Franken loses, excuse me, has the election stolen from him we'll never hear the end of it. And if Franken wins then we'll never hear the end of him either.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 3:29 pm | #
Franken isn't that popular. I give him less than even odds. Coleman was vulnerable but Franken proved to be a poor campaigner. He would have been better off writing script and letting somebody else deliver the punchline (say Bill Murray).
Again not advocating - just calling the horse race.
As another long term MN TC resident, from what I know of Coleman's history (from when he was mayor of St.Paul) that comment would fit Coleman's likely responses also.
--Andrew
Yeah but Coleman doesn't have a pliant media conduit hanging on his every clever insult. He wouldn't be afforded a stage from where to launch his invectives.
Hey, a got a question to all the geo-politiconomics wonks.
One of things that will happen during th G20 will be that China will have to diversify its reserves and surpluses. Hopefully, this will, among others: stabilize (for the time being) other emerging markets, increase China's domestic consumption, and reduce their exports. Most of these, if not all, will be good for US domestic manufacturers.
What the hell can we do with the GCC? It's not like exactly like the export anything other than oil. Furthermore, how much more domestic consumption can places like Dubai and Kuwait support?
It's probably healthier than what we are eating now.
But, yuck.
I just squeezed the first tangerine juice of the season. Super yum. So I will delicious citrus along with the black bread & cabbage.
By the way, the great wave claims grain prices in US revolutionary times was highly correlated with grain prices everywhere, which seems very strange to me given the distances, etc. If so, everything was always connected.
Dryfly, since I also posted this site above, I'll opine.
The Bradley effect may be overrated. There are many anecdotal stories accompanying the polling narrative. The electorate is aroused, angry and this is a natural progression from the fear they sense. Many in places one would otherwise doubt, will pull the lever for the one they think will get something, anything done. The electoral vote may well be a landslide. Of course, there's yet eight days and a wake up to go.
Also, the Obama ground game is one that has the old line of each party awestruck. A well organized and growing phalanx of workers leaning forward into the trenches, phoning, knocking, getting the early vote out and to the polls. much of the action is happening out of range of the MSM radar.
Meanwhile, Walnuts is still yammering about terrorists, inexperience and socialism. Go visit one of the R's state offices. The phone banks are unmanned, the access to volunteers is restricted (if any are even around) and the party line is repeated.
Nope, this will be an electoral landslide surpassed few times in presidential election history.
Ukraine: "The Poles were fighting the Russians. The Russians were fighting the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians were fighting the Poles and the Russians but all were fighting the Turk."
Yeah but Coleman doesn't have a pliant media conduit hanging on his every clever insult. He wouldn't be afforded a stage from where to launch his invectives.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 3:38 pm | #
Rob - you don't live here, we do, it isn't working for 'Al'. He might win but I think he is swimming against the current.
He's getting more media attention out YOUR way from Tinsel Town media then our folks give him. Now if Al had been involved in a hockey franchise... or won a national hockey title playing for the gophers... then they'd give him some slack out here. Who cares about SNL anyway - only turn to it after the hockey game is over. Priorities.
If you aren't advocating - and I'm not either - it's not 'pollution'. Its analyzing the horse race.
I'm not advocating. I'm a card carrying member of the "suffering" party - as in suffering no matter who wins. Would love to write in Ron Paul, who isn't exactly perfect either, but think my vote is going to go against whomever I think the absolute worst evil is. And that I haven't totally decided.
OT-Phil Matier was interviewing the US Attorney in San Francisco a few minutes ago.
The US Attorney said that they were going to be prosecuting folks who lied on their mortgage paperwork. If it was just some poor shlub was got in over his or her head by lying about income to buy an overpriced tool shed with running water, the Feds would cut them a deal: "plead guilty to a felony, but no jail time".
If they plead guilty then they committed fraud and will be responsible for the loan plus be a convicted felon with all the downside.
Unbelievable. Can't wait for them to figure out a way to make charging up your CC to survive a crime. Look for many pro bank changes to bankruptcy laws next year.
We have been called by the O campaign perhaps a dozen times, and not once by McC.
They got my ofc email address, and I can't tell you how many emails I've had to delete.
The enthusiasm is unbelievable by all races, sexes and ages. Only exception is the Cubans. My Cuban secy intends to vote for O. People bring it up at the ofc, unbidden. They sound proud.
"Joe Biden" female, just called on my cell phone number.
If it was just some poor shlub was got in over his or her head by lying about income to buy an overpriced tool shed with running water, the Feds would cut them a deal: "plead guilty to a felony, but no jail time".
A couple of weeks ago on here, I tried to explain (but to no avail) just how difficult it is to write and enforce a fraud statute under the federal court's mens rea requirement. Because of the zealousness to enforce fraud, we're basically moving to a statutory standard, no intent required.
People think that predatory lending laws were discriminatory, statutory crimes, when combined with minimum sentencing guidelines, are a totally different beast...
Also, the Obama ground game is one that has the old line of each party awestruck. A well organized and growing phalanx of workers leaning forward into the trenches, phoning, knocking, getting the early vote out and to the polls. much of the action is happening out of range of the MSM radar.
The O people are completely invisible in my neck of the woods - first time EVER I've not been called to death by DFL activists (I live in a very blue collar neighborhood - strong DFL ties - where are they?).
I have heard similar anecdotes from friends in rural WI, IA & MO... where are they if they are EVERYWHERE?
Were we written off early? Assumed locked up? If so they have a surprise coming...
And as for race? I know people are careful what they say - I'm one of those 'disarming' types that folks seem to always tell me a lot than they intended. I've heard a lot of not so subtle racial jabs at O - more than I thought I'd hear. I think we've come a long way from summer of '68 but we aren't THAT far yet.
That is my point. I am very well prepared to admit I might be wrong but all I can do is say what I see & hear & it doesn't jive w/ what the polls indicate.
One benefit of not voting for over a decade is a sense of objectivity.
The smell of desperation here is... disturbing. I hope y'all are right but I suspect you are not. The Machine succumbs to no man, particularly one who is beholden to it.
People think that predatory lending laws were discriminatory, statutory crimes, when combined with minimum sentencing guidelines, are a totally different beast...
Basel Too | 10.26.08 - 3:54 pm | #
Could you elaborate, please? What are the real world consequences you are referring to?
The US Attorney said that they were going to be prosecuting folks who lied on their mortgage paperwork. If it was just some poor shlub was got in over his or her head by lying about income to buy an overpriced tool shed with running water, the Feds would cut them a deal: "plead guilty to a felony, but no jail time".
There will be a new set of US Atty's in January. Obama is fierce on fraud (he's been pushing aggressive anti-mortgage-fraud provision from 2006) but he recognizes the problem is the mortgage broker fraud mills, not the chumps and small-timers they got to sign up. Resources will be allocated accordingly.
The bankruptcy changes will favor the general population, not the banks.
I was wondering why there had not been any prosecution for loan fraud.
I'm delighted to the see the US Attorney for the Northern District of California pursuing these cases.
Lying about your income on a loan application is a serious matter in that you are, in effect, cheating a bank out of hundreds of thousands of dollars. Most definitely a class one
felony. If convicted I would presume banks could also pursue deficiency judgements as the loan was obtained through fraud.
Are you guys ready for futures open and such? Yen and won and Indonesian index closures? I'm planning to watch "scare tactics" reruns on Tivo, drink Diet Coke Lime and browse some financial websites.
Commenter on another site, someone I usually detest, put it rather well: if Dems win majority House, 60 Senate, and Pres, things better be Oz by next Summer - anything less than zippity doo dah and they're dead.
Thinking strategically, if I was Russia or another beligerant country it would be a good time for military actions against other countries knowing that Obama has pledged to bring troops home.
The talking about it is where the progress is made. Where the getting over it occurs. And if, by some whim of fate or blessings of a higher power or the solid work of hundreds of thousands of people, Obama gets elected--this too will serve to further us along as a people, as a society of all men (and women).
The bankruptcy changes will favor the general population, not the banks.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 3:57 pm | #
"Barack Obama proposed on Tuesday changing bankruptcy laws to fast-track the process for military families, help seniors keep their homes and protect people recovering from natural disasters."
Smoke and mirrors. The changes proposed only benefit a very small portion of the people in trouble. Look for this to be passed and used to point out who has been helped when the standards change for the majority of Americans.
Emp writes:
Thinking strategically, if I was Russia or another beligerant country it would be a good time for military actions against other countries knowing that Obama has pledged to bring troops home.
Emp
Well things aren't going to be "OZ by the summer of 2009. More likely it will be hell on earth especially if the Dems pass tax increases.
We are experiencing a major economic collapse not a lousy recession. That some think we can get out of this multi-trillion dollar cockup with just a couple of quarters of minor economic contraction is madness.
The Bradley effect hasn't been seen for 15 years. It didn't affect Braun, Patrick, or Obama. Obama has pretty consistently beat his poll numbers, so there's certainly no Bradley effect left in Democrats or independents. There aren't enough pro-Obama Repubs to make a difference. Add in the fact that a 5% shift isn't nearly enough - Obama is ahead by 7%, and the electoral distribution favors him (even vote splits tend to go his way) and McCain has a huge uphill climb.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
Commenter on another site, someone I usually detest, put it rather well: if Dems win majority House, 60 Senate, and Pres, things better be Oz by next Summer - anything less than zippity doo dah and they're dead.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 4:01 pm | #
Too much and too easily won success is always the worst thing that can happen to a person or party - that and misreading anger at the 'other guy' as a mandate for your policies.
emp, why should vladimir send even one soldier to Krym xD when all he needs to do is just wait until the IMF has finished "helping" Ukraina. that should be just long enough for UA to run back to Moscow on its own free will.
Emp writes:
Thinking strategically, if I was Russia or another beligerant country it would be a good time for military actions against other countries knowing that Obama has pledged to bring troops home.
If I were Russia, I would rather consider anouncing that I would start moving my $500+ Bil reserves out of USD. That would do more to promote my cross-broder interests.
Russia too is in the eye of the storm, despite its energy wealth or because of it. The cost of insuring Russian sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) surged to 1,200 basis points last week, higher than Icelands debt before Götterdammerung struck Reykjavik.
The markets no longer believe that the spending structure of the Russian state is viable as oil threatens to plunge below $60 a barrel. The foreign debt of the oligarchs ($530bn) has surpassed the countrys foreign reserves. Some $47bn has to be repaid over the next two months.
Traders are paying close attention as contagion moves from the periphery of the eurozone into the core. They are tracking the yield spreads between Italian and German 10-year bonds, the stress barometer of monetary union.
The spreads reached a post-EMU high of 93 last week. Nobody knows where the snapping point is, but anything above 100 would be viewed as a red alarm. The market took careful note on Friday that Portugals biggest banks, Millenium, BPI, and Banco Espirito Santo are preparing to take up the states emergency credit guarantees.
Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, says there is an imminent danger that East Europes currency pegs will be smashed unless the EU authorities wake up to the full gravity of the threat, and that in turn will trigger a dangerous crisis for EMU itself.
Volker the Viking writes:
dryfly: it's good this exchange we're having
The talking about it is where the progress is made. Where the getting over it occurs. And if, by some whim of fate or blessings of a higher power or the solid work of hundreds of thousands of people, Obama gets elected--this too will serve to further us along as a people, as a society of all men (and women).
Volker the Viking | 10.26.08 - 4:03 pm | #
Add in the fact that a 5% shift isn't nearly enough - Obama is ahead by 7%, and the electoral distribution favors him (even vote splits tend to go his way) and McCain has a huge uphill climb.
With the Bradley Effect you're taking away 5% from Obama and giving it to McCain, for a net 10 point swing.
aleister perdurabo, and how big is russian souvereign debt? i remember they paid off all of their debt towardsparis club one or two years ago earlier than supposed to.
Problem for Putin is Russia has more foreign debt than foreign reserves and with the oil price collapsing and Europe entering a recession his gas exports will be hurting too.
Putin will be liquidating his reserves alright but not to punish the US but to stave off another economic collapse.
He might find it advantageous though to start a war someplace to preserve his hold on the Russian people during hard economic times. Maybe just annex
Georgia though reabsorbing Ukraine is probably his great ambition.
Those aren't the only pro-individual changes to the bankruptcy code Obama wants. He's also pushing cramdowns. Plus, don't forget he opposed the 2005 bankruptcy deform act.
Obama has consistently opposed the nasty parts of recent bankruptcy law and you can count on him rolling them back, not forward. He has always had a traditionalist approach to debt and bankruptcy.
Why isn't anyone judging a Democratic President with a possible filibuster proof Democratic majority in Congress as being a threat to America. If I wrote the same sentence using the word Republican we'd be flipping out in panic.
What is the difference between the Dems and Repubs? Didn't the passing of the totally ineffective bailout bill clue anyone in to the fact there is no difference between the parties? Isn't Obama's largest contributor Goldman Sachs? Who are we kidding here? Change will only come from the citizenry demanding change.
I voted for Obama and am a lifetime democratic voter. I am not fooling myself anymore about either party looking out for the citizens of this country.
Re Russian Sovereign CDS - The Russian Government is unlikely to have debt problems. It is overleveraged Russian oligarchs that are in deep trouble - which is actually a welcome development for the Kremlin, who will be able to decide who will get saved and who won't. In the end the Russian economy will get weaker, but the Russian government will have a stronger command over the economy. Mr. Putin will like that.
Unit472 writes:
Well things aren't going to be "OZ by the summer of 2009. More likely it will be hell on earth especially if the Dems pass tax increases.
If things aren't looking up by Summer 2010 - then it will be hell to pay for incumbents & especially those in the majority (assumed to be Dems) in Fall 2010.
But they will have some time to tinker - about 18 months. Not much considering how FUBAR things look now.
Why isn't anyone judging a Democratic President with a possible filibuster proof Democratic majority in Congress as being anything but a threat to America. If I wrote the same sentence using the word Republican we'd be flipping out in panic.
The US Attorney said that they were going to be prosecuting folks who lied on their mortgage paperwork.
Bullroar. This is pure politicking. There is neither the political will to go after the little guy nor does any Fed/State/Local justice branch have the resources to prosecute small cases.
I've heard a lot of not so subtle racial jabs at O - more than I thought I'd hear.
Yes, racism is popping up even in So Cal, but it's met with disbelief and disinterest. Lack of an audience really shuts them down.
There is neither the political will to go after the little guy nor does any Fed/State/Local justice branch have the resources to prosecute small cases.
People have been making the same criticisms over the war on drugs for 30 years...
Commenter on another site, someone I usually detest, put it rather well: if Dems win majority House, 60 Senate, and Pres, things better be Oz by next Summer - anything less than zippity doo dah and they're dead.
Didn't work that way for Roosevelt. Anyway, the American population isn't that dumb. They'll blame the current admin for everything that goes bad at least until 2010, and rightfully so. We have deep and long-term problems and it's going to take years for fixes to really help. People are looking for fair and honest government now, not Tinkerbell. Fair and honest has always been at the center of Obama's proposals for just about everything (Iraq audits, Katrina audits, mortgage fraud control, earmark exposure, etc.).
things better be Oz by next Summer - anything less than zippity doo dah and they're dead.
Does the public really hold elected officials responsible anymore? I'm wondering how many have already forgotten which rep voted for or against the bailout, and whether that will show in the polls or not.
It all is. There no simple answers but even on this board, there's widespread belief that the color of a president will suddenly absolve them of $10 trillion in direct debt, $55 trillion in liabilities, and (at the moment) an annualized deficit of $5 trillion per year.
It's a good time for anyone to move militarily because the US is insolvent and will soon cut spending regardless of who is elected.
That's why we have the Russia & Georgia situation, that's why we have Somalia pirates hijacking ships.
I predict that most people will secretly be disappointed in their election choice by 2011 but will never admit it, even to themselves (as is par for the course for Americans these days).
Jas is the sanest person on the board and that's just plain sad.
"Maybe Obama socialism would be a good thing.
Gainas"
LMFAO. You socialists simply don'y get it. This is a violent world with many competing intersts. Prosperity means not letting up. Socialists go straight to the middle of the welfare line and stay there waiting for handouts.
The voters blame who is in office. Reagan and his GOP Senate got hammered in 1982 for Jimmy Carter's recession (and Volker's tight money).
By 2010 Bush will be a distant memory as the economic shocks are not going to stop on Nov.4th. The bankruptcies and fallout from this mess are going to be with us for sometime.
Fair Economist: I agree with your view of a somewhat patient public if the government is seen to be trying to fix things.
Where I disagree, perhaps, is that Obama can't do anything substantative on cutting back Defense, National Security, et. al. because the GOP wingnuts will go apeshit on any cutbacks.
To bring things in line we need a big reduction on military expense (more in line with a non-imperial power), and THAT Obama won't be able to do. A crippling problem, imo.
With the Bradley Effect you're taking away 5% from Obama and giving it to McCain, for a net 10 point swing.
Captain Fish (Paper Pusher) | 10.26.08 - 4:12 pm | #
Yes - in states like Missouri, Pennsylvania, Ohio - I believe a swing THAT LARGE (+/- 5% over what is reported now) is possible due to 'Bradley'.
In effect the rubes & exurbs vote McCain in as large a spread as city people vote O... w/ suburbs split. A much larger spread than in 2000 or 2004.
In those states 'outstate' vote is a big proportion of the electorate.
Florida, NC, VA Bradley won't be that big (IMHO) first because they have larger minority populations but also I think poll more 'true' - less likely to say one thing & do another.
But in the Midwest where rural means almost all white and racism is less overt but no less present - I think the possibility for a big Bradley Effect is high. Higher than folks realize.
Again I could be wrong - I am waiting for the results myself.
I would like to see more serious discussion of the IMF interventions. According to Automatic Earth, the IMF is a creature of US policies and corporations. There are apparently some folks rich enough to take advantage of the collapse in world economies. Any speculations?
Goldman Sachs $474,428 Ubs Ag $298,180 JP Morgan Chase & Co $282,387 Lehman Brothers $274,147 National Amusements Inc $265,750 Sidley Austin LLP $251,657 Citigroup Inc $247,436 University of California $239,944 Skadden, Arps et al $228,520 Exelon Corp $226,661 Harvard University $225,891 Jones Day $213,825 Google Inc $192,808 Time Warner $190,091 Morgan Stanley $190,026 Citadel Investment Group $173,950 Kirkland & Ellis $163,126 Latham & Watkins $160,842 WilmerHale LLP $155,788 Jenner & Block $151,447
The government elected by the many for the few. I see many banks and law firms in the top donors to Obama.
Didn't Obama start out promising to get our troops out of Iraq if elected? Continue to believe that electing Obama will result in a better nation.
McCain/Palin would be the final nail in our nations coffin. Don't misinterpret my criticisms of Obama as support for them. I am pointing out the fallacy we all face and ignore that voting in either a Repub or Dem will produce change. When I see large protests in the streets demanding change I will believe we have a chance.
Dry,
You aren't so much misreading as over reading. he media is slanting their polls for a few percent, the Bradley effect is another few percent and the popular vote will be far closer than the pundits suggest. Far closer than their margins of error once again. You'd think they'd have learned that lesson in 2000. Still won't be enough. We'll know early when Virginia and Pennsylvania are called. Either to O and the election is over. Really close in VA and it is still a probable O win in the Electoral College.
For an example, a relative near Dayton, OH with a spouse high up in the Air Force (full bird) and they are voting O because they are hoping for only one more deployment instead of three. I think that' weak logic but there is a serious case of Republican Executive Fatigue out there. Obama won't so much win his 354 votes as he will get the "not the Republican vote" by default. As an aside, IMO had McCain convinced Romney the polls would be more than reversed.
We already know what people who say they're going to vote for Obama do when they get into a voting booth alone.
They vote for Obama.
The experiment has been replicated dozens of times in the majority of the states in the Union. And that was running against a candidate quite close to him in policies, for whom race and experience were far more important just because otherwise the differences were few.
The subject is the title of a book by Frederick Hayek. If he were alive today he would be an archenemy of Chair-moron Benjamin Shalom Bernankes policies socialism for bankers and financiers and incessant interventions in the economy.
Bernanke Claims: How politicians and central bankers created the Great Depression
Do we have better politicians and central bankers today? Oh, they have learned from history? LMAO! The guy IS fighting the last war, that of 1930s!
AMERICANS OF TODAY ARE FAR INFERIOR, INTELLECTUALLY AS WELL AS MORALLY, TO THE AMERICANS OF 50, 100, AND 200 YEARS AGO. They are conceited about their superiority of knowledge when they are undisputed history ignoramuses.
How in the hell can we have better politicians and central bankers? We cant. Only desperate people in America can be made to believe that Bernanke knows how to avoid depressions, or deflation. He only has one power, to make the outcome much worse than had he not been in power. The guy is an egomaniac in line with the worst of them in history. Can he control how hundreds of millions of people behave during a crisis? Disgusting.
Fair Economist, the polls were dreadfully wrong in 2004 1 day ahead of the election. No one ever looked back and tried to figure out why or how to account for it. Instead we got a lot of silly unsubstantiated myths about fraud.
There was no Bradley effect. This time the polls might be off by twice as much, or more.
I personally don't give shit who wins right about now - but I would LOVE to see a candidate's race no longer be an issue. I still think in a lot of circles it is. In mostly white rural US especially.
Similar to what JFK did to the Catholic/Protestant 'issue' which was HUGE when my parents were young. My father was catholic my mother was protestant and family members didn't want to go to the wedding (circa 1940s)... so they were well in tune with those vibes at the time. My father said it is hard to imagine now how big it was for him then.
There is only one way to make candidate's race no longer an issue - and it would be for a black to actually win the big one.
Having said that - the worst thing would be to win and then be a complete failure - which would fan the 'I told you so' flames for another (couple) generations.
But having a 'break through' election would change the social dynamics FOR EVER regardless of what you think of the guy's qualities or capabilities.
While the IMF has $200 billion is reserve it has already committed 10% this weekend alone in emernecy loans. And the list of people needing help is growing. Not meniton the fact Russian Bonds are trading like the country is toast. The last time Russia went out that was major wave. In today's market it be a tsunima.
Seriously Jas, you have some valid points. The power to take is corrupting. Propaganda or information control is a concern anytime government centralizes power. The unionization of education has shifted the focus to budgets rather than outcomes so yes, the population by and large is primarily concerned about bread and circuses.
If you strip the negative hyperbole out of your message more people might react to your observations. Everyone here knows the disaster is upon us. No need to be insulting to get attention. Peace, love and don't bogart the joint, Bro.
Not at all, bearly: the last Bush-Kerry polls had Bush taking Ohio and Florida for the win. I think you're confusing the Zogby pro-Kerry outlier with the polling consensus, which was very close to the final outcome. Actually the polls were slightly more favorable to Bush: the only state they got wrong was Wisconsin, which they had going to Bush when it actually went for Kerry.
CR, you've great. I've enjoyed following your blog, lo, these many months. You keep a level head and you seem to be a genuinely kind and caring individual. I've recommended Calculated Risk to many people and they've all responded favorably.
I'm rejoining the real world now, to see what I can do for my community. Maybe I can help my neighbors in the months and years ahead. There is much to be said for keeping the focus on the solution instead of the problem.
U.S. Helicopters Attack Syrian Village, Killing Eight, AP Says
Syrian state TV said U.S. helicopters carrying soldiers raided a farm in the Syrian village of Hwijeh, 10 miles (16 kilometers) inside the border with Iraq, the Associated Press reported.
The area is near the Iraqi city of Qaim, which was considered a border crossing for insurgent fighters coming into Iraq, AP said.
The U.S. military in Baghdad declined to comment to AP.
I live in Oregon and we got our ballots last Monday. Fill it out and mail or drop it off. Great system. There were around 9 local positions with out two candidates to choose from. In each of those cases I wrote in Jas Jain as the write in choice. Gave me a chuckle.
How do they legally bail out a pile of douchebags like Citadel? Maybe some Russian gangsters can step in and "help out" with some short term financing?
"Obama has .... always had a traditionalist approach to debt and bankruptcy"
You mean "populist", don't you?
Nope, traditionalist. He's opposed the populist moves like Hillary's foreclosure freeze and McCain's face value bailout. His fixes have leaned to efficiency measures and now restoring traditional policies like cramdowns.
$12 Help writes:
Seriously Jas, you have some valid points.
And one of them is right there at the tippy top of your head.
See, when you wax bellicose, and you already know this, you point your finger. everyone who has suffered knows that whenever one points a finger, there are three more pointing straight back at you.
dryfly "There is only one way to make candidate's race no longer an issue - and it would be for a black to actually win the big one"
Uhhh, how 'bout this... if Obama wins and we get that inevitable depression that he gets pinned to his chest like a congressional medal, he could be the last black elected to a substantial position for a generation or more.
If he is seen to be doing his best, and actually fighting a few special interests, and giving blood sweat and tears speeches, maybe not. People stuck with FDR didn't they? (not my family)
The IMF does not have the wherewithal to stem the emerging market crisis.
I thought a few weeks ago that we might muddle through until the boomers started to try to retire, but it increasingly seems to me that the entire system is going to collapse sometime in the next few months. The sovereign defaults are going to bury the European banks.
Clearly the matter of race is crucial in this election. Without Obama would not be the nominee, Hillary would be.
There can be no other explanation for the almost unanimous support Obama receives from black voters than his racial status. It is simply not possible in a free and fair election for a candidate to receive 90+% support from an electorate unless those voters are basing their vote on race above and beyond all other considerations!
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
Thursday headline: GDP Contracts Most in 27 Years; DOW Falls Below 6000
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 4:54 pm | #
Let's watch this Syria story develop. Dow 6000 might be the least of our worries. Been waiting for real geopolitical crises to develop from the economies collapsing around the world.
lawyerliz writes:
If he is seen to be doing his best, and actually fighting a few special interests, and giving blood sweat and tears speeches, maybe not. People stuck with FDR didn't they? (not my family)
lawyerliz | 10.26.08 - 4:51 pm | #
Results matter. People will have to have to at least have hope if not tangible results. FDR didn't fix the depression but folks in general had more hope... whether justified or not is a matter of opinion.
If O wins & folks have less hope in 2012 than now - he'll be considered a failure no matter how hard he 'tries' to get it right. I mean W 'tried' - told us how hard it all was - and we can't get rid of him fast enough.
Obama will get his 100 days and then some and if things don't improve far beyond what is possible the media will turn on him with a vengance because by then the economic turmoil will be affecting them personally. Limosine Liberals... oh excuse me... Prius Progressives aren't so generous with OPM when it turns out it means their comfort suffers.
I remember meeting a Ukrainian college student, and we got to talking about the differences between Poland and Ukraine. I mentioned that I heard that in Ukraine, they had white borscht, as opposed to the red borscht we ate in Poland. I told her that I knew that the red came from beets; what, I asked her, did they use to make white borscht?
She looked at me rather ruefully and said, "whatever we can find."
They're used to hard times in Ukraine. Really hard times.
Do you really want to know? They ARE born-and-bred dopes. The process began some 90 years ago, but really picked up steam since the breeding of the Baby Doomers raised on nothing but propaganda.
"Dow 4000 writes:
So when does the IMF bail out US?"
The IMF bails out only the worst performers. And we - the USA will not be the worst performer. I bet we will do the best within the next 3 years. Unfortunately, in this particular case performing the best still means we will endure HUGE amounts of pain.
That is why we have a Constitution, to provide some protection against majority sentiment, like "lets forgive all debts".
Comrade Vistulian | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 4:58 pm | #
___________________-
Lets only forgive all the debts of the wealthy, the poor will still have to pay. We're all poor in the coming years.
Unless the US defaults on it's debt then the people of the US will be required to pay through much higher taxes. There is no answer to getting us out of the hole we've dug. If I'm wrong please enlighten me.
"AMERICANS OF TODAY ARE FAR INFERIOR, INTELLECTUALLY AS WELL AS MORALLY, TO THE AMERICANS OF 50, 100, AND 200 YEARS AGO. They are conceited about their superiority of knowledge when they are undisputed history ignoramuses."
Bll-Sht, no pun intended .
just look at the proportion of BA/BS degrees in the population today, 50, 100, 200 years ago and you'll notice how wrong you are...
There can be no other explanation for the almost unanimous support Obama receives from black voters than his racial status. It is simply not possible in a free and fair election for a candidate to receive 90+% support from an electorate unless those voters are basing their vote on race above and beyond all other considerations!
Unit472 | 10.26.08 - 4:56 pm | #
Blacks vote 'D' 90% plus of the time no matter the color of the candidate. If blacks turn out in record numbers to vote your argument will be much stronger.
Unit472 writes:
The big and dangerous difference between Poland and Ukraine is that Ukraine has a large Russian minority.
You'd think Russia would be offering Ukraine support - you win more friends with kindness then threats. Even as screwed up as Russia is you'd think they could find a little something... cheaper to buy than conquer.
There can be no other explanation for the almost unanimous support Obama receives from black voters than his racial status.
Here's some other news: White candidates have received nearly unanimous support from white voters. Unbelievable huh?
It might be helpful to correlate your observation to economic demographics, and then notice which of those demographics tend to vote blue and red. Unless your the type that needs to think in black and white, in which case forget this paragraph and look to the above two.
Please write a child rearing book. Include a must read section. Please also include design plans for your propaganda detector, my personally designed model keeps beeping when I read your rhetoric.
"The stock market is pricing in an Obama victory in the election."
I am wondering if the SEC is incubating a plan to shut down the markets now until some date well after the election. The world can handle pricing Obama in much longer.
Wait wait... there's an important difference between the economic conditions when FDR & WJC entered office and when/if BHO begins his term: the worst of the economic contraction had already occurred. I've been saying throughout this year that the worst of the economic shrinkage begins next Spring due to lags in MEW and CRE and associated layoffs from the beginning of the end of the consumer.
In other words, BHO should hope to be more like Reagan than Roosevelt - but unlike the early 80s, the Fed can hardly push short term rates lower and the economy wasn't unwinding the largest asset mania in history.
Black voters may vote Democrat in 90% levels ( though not always) but I'm speaking of the Democrat primaries where Obama got those same kind of lopsided majorities over Hillary.
You might recall some of Hillary's black supporters had to renounce their support so heavy was pressure on them to vote race. Rep. Lewis of Georgia was one, if I recall, who had pledged his vote to Clinton.
There can be no other explanation for the almost unanimous support Obama receives from black voters than his racial status.
There is. Blacks have voted overwhelmingly Democratic in Presidential races since FDR and then (more so) since Kennedy/Johnson.
If Obama were a Republican, he would only get about half or so of the black vote. But that would break forever the Democratic stranglehold on black voters in Presidential elections. As it is, the stranglehold is reinforced probably forever.
Blacks are not the battleground in this election. Hispanics are. The fact that maybe 80+% of Hispanics will vote for Obama is big because 1) Hispanics already outnumber blacks and they will vastly outnumber them in 20 years; and 2) Hispanics were definitely up for grabs, with no party having a stranglehold.
Ironically, Obama has created this juggernaut with Hispanics by doing and saying almost nothing for them. He chose to tap dance around the whole immigration fiasco, which is near to Hispanics' hearts, and it hasn't hurt him.
alongwaytogo writes:
Please wise ones, tell me, if Paulson had not been Tres. would this ever have happened.
Define "this".
Where does these millions now live that lost their homes?
To apartments, to cheaper rental homes, to relatives' homes, to friends' homes, to shelters, to the street. Many of the foreclosed properties were owned by speculators, who didn't occupy the houses to begin with.
Why should banks be bailed out?
They shouldn't be. No one should be bailed out, and all should accept the financial consequences of their choices (good and bad).
Will Hedge Funds be allowed to eat the tax payer for dinner because of their wealth or their perceived wealth?
I would like to warn investors here not to get too bearish at this point. We are due for a big bear market rally, even if there were no PPT. And there definitely is a PPT and this next battle is their Gettysburg. They will throw everything they have into one last charge to keep the markets from falling farther.
In between falling gas prices, media hype, 1% fed funds rate, and consumer relief, it wouldn't surprise me if this Xmas shopping season surprises to the upside.
I'm looking for a bear market rally of at least 15-20% from the bottom over the next 8-10 weeks. At that point, you should jump back in with both feet short, because we are nowhere's near the ultimate bottom.
"Global finacial markets are still at risk of collapse and turmoil will continue until at least the end of 2009." Peer Steinbruck, German Finance
Minister.
Ironically, Obama has created this juggernaut with Hispanics by doing and saying almost nothing for them. He chose to tap dance around the whole immigration fiasco, which is near to Hispanics' hearts, and it hasn't hurt him.
rich | 10.26.08 - 5:21 pm | #
I'll wait to see the results before I second that...
Financial tempest spreads to Gulf states - The New York Times
Financial tempest spreads to Gulf states
The global economic crisis extended its reach into the Gulf states Sunday, as Kuwait suspended trading in shares of a major bank and the Saudi authorities announced a plan to help citizens receive credit.
Actually, the markets had their bear market rally of at least 15-20% from the bottom from the lows of Friday, Oct. 10th to the highs of Tuesday, Oct. 14th. The SPX/INDU have yet to make new lows but COMPQ & RUT have - as well as all other major world indexes. That's one reason why I expect panic selling this week - perhaps another 25% lower. I'd love to buy some ultra Proshares in the teens.
The "Hispanic vote" is pretty close to any geographically similar "white vote." What people see is Hispanic activism which is several sigma to the left of the Hispanic vote.
Theyre Shocked, Shocked, About the Mess
'MY hypocrisy meter konked out last week.'
(The title and first line reads like something Tanta would write before her coffee!)
"As long as it keep the Bolsheviks over there and not over here."
Which Bolsheviks are those? The only Bolsheviks are the National Bolsheviks. They have no influence over anything and are not associated with any party or entity of influence.
You had three years to write about this impending mess but you were too busy repeating wall street's mantra and sales pitch word for word. We shouldn't trust you either.
McLame had 4,000 supporters at his Denver rally and the press declared Colorado in the Red column.
So the 100,000 whom showed up to see That One must be delusional or something.
Can't wait to say President Palin! She is our best and brightest (she went to 6 different colleges after all) and really knows how to make free market based capitalism work.
just look at the proportion of BA/BS degrees in the population today, 50, 100, 200 years ago and you'll notice how wrong you are...
Comrade de Chaos | 10.26.08 - 5:06 pm | #
You missed, I'm afraid, the irony of you proving Jas' point by indicating the higher proportion of lower value degrees industrially manufactured today.
The following more or less supports what some have been saying for a while that major banks in the U.S. and the U.K. will end up being entirely nationalized before this crisis is over but its still a striking way of looking at the data. The gist: Government recapitalization and other fund-raising has largely been in service of banks prior subprime losses, while corporate and consumer loans are just starting to hit bank balance sheets. It wont take much to tip banks over into insolvency again.
"I will be SHOCKED if Virginia goes for O. VA is one of the few states where you can get the "Stars and Bars" (Confederate flag) on your license plate."
Do remember George Allen lost his senate seat to Jim Webb in 2006.
NC, VA, GA, CO, NV, FL.
What do these states have in common?
They are rapidly growing states with younger residents.
That is what is making these state competetive for Obama.
But you know, it ain't over till the fat lady sings...
Two hour special on CNBC tonite? Poor Maria's or Erin's weekend cut short again. They will be blonde & haggard looking like Andrea Mitchell before we know it.
The % change on futures right now don't reflect differences between Friday's cash close and what cash would open - SPX closed at 876, e-mini now @ 861 would be about -1.75% - fwiw
The real question on the racial issue is what happens in 15 - 20 years when whites become a minority. At that time there will be an ethnic minority with much greater wealth than the rest of the country. History is unamimous that this is a dangerous recipe as the new majority looks to reverse what it sees as historical injustices by redistributive policies, and the new minority sees as racist attempts to seize their justly accumulated property.
I don't think it really matters too much who gets elected president. Most jobs that pay middle class salaries will be lost over the next 4 years either way.
Jas,
Have you read the book "Starbucks Nation" ? It's a great satire of B&B American Dopes. Also, like you, the author thinks that people have gotten even dopier than they used to be
FFDIC writes:
Two hour special on CNBC tonite? Poor Maria's or Erin's weekend cut short again. They will be blonde & haggard looking like Andrea Mitchell before we know it.
FFDIC | 10.26.08 - 6:17 pm | #
Maybe we can marry them off to a fed chairman a la Andrea - know any available?
In responding to the economic emergency, Mr Obama has again impressed not by advancing solutions of his own, but in displaying a calm and methodical disposition, and in seeking the best advice. Mr McCains hasty half-baked interventions were unnerving when they were not beside the point.
The challenges facing the next president will be extraordinary. We hesitate to wish it on anyone, but we hope that Mr Obama gets the job.
Maybe we can marry them off to a fed chairman a la Andrea - know any available?
dryfly | 10.26.08 - 6:23 pm | #
J-Yello - Janet Yellin might be interested when she has had too much Oak Leaf Vineyard's wine at Alan's house.
(sold at WalMart for $2.97)
JT writes:
The real question on the racial issue is what happens in 15 - 20 years when whites become a minority. At that time there will be an ethnic minority with much greater wealth than the rest of the country. History is unamimous that this is a dangerous recipe as the new majority looks to reverse what it sees as historical injustices by redistributive policies, and the new minority sees as racist attempts to seize their justly accumulated property.
JT | 10.26.08 - 6:19 pm | #
Won't be an issue unless one of the previous minorities rises to majority status then acts like a 'majority' - most likely the US becomes a mix of 'minorities' with no single one holding a dominant majority position. That might not be bad at all. More checks and balances.
Ukraine. In the early 90s heard an old man tell his story. He was caught up in a famine of the 20s, when he was a small child. His parents told him: "We can't feed you." They took him to an orphanage/feeding station and left him there. He saw a crowd of children mobbing a woman holding a tray-full of bread. The children were fighting to get close to her, to hold on to her skirts. Life or death, bread or death by starvation. He fought his way into the mob and grabbed a handful of her skirts. He ate and lived.
He grew up in a state home. He said: "The state was my father and my mother."
He was inducted during WWII and found himself in a KGB detachment guarding the camps. He held a P.p.sh. (Peh peh sha), a Russian tommy gun. The guards would say to the prisoners: "One step either to the right or the left and we shoot."
We listened to this story, and all we could feel was pity. What more is there? Poor Russia. Poor Ukraine.
Remembering the old man, feeble and in ill health, in his one-room Moscow flat, makes me feel like weeping.
People are crushed by history, things beyond their control.
Listen, there are human beings there, not objects or avatars in some electronic game.
I met Ted Taylor once, the man who miniaturized US nukes, and who worked at Defense drawing up targets. In the late 80s he traveled to Moscow, and stood exactly in the center of the ground zero he had designated in Red Square. He looked around and saw young couples with babies, children, old people. He burst into tears.
Don't de-humanize people. It's a sin against God and your own soul.
I personally don't give shit who wins right about now - but I would LOVE to see a candidate's race no longer be an issue. I still think in a lot of circles it is. In mostly white rural US especially.
Ah, but let's not let race be the scapegoat here. Okay, I'll admit, I already have, I can't stand Obama. But I love Colin Powell. I'd vote for him. I love Condoleeza. I think she's cool. I'd vote for a woman but not Hillary.
Northern Va will go to Obama, actually I think the state will. Yes, we have the Stars and Bars here but it isn't like the old days. Fairfax County, the center of No. VA. is 1/2 immigrant now.
The Ukraine. I believe that is where the expression "Beyond the Pale" comes from. Part of Poland and what is now Ukraine was the Pale or settlement area. Pavel probably knows far more than I do.
Interesting that in Poland you see the Ukraine flag flown as much as the Polish on the border.
The Ukraine is also the home of at least 1200 mass graves left over from the last time experienced the political turmoil of depression, hunger, and men who had the only answer.
Do you really want to know? They ARE born-and-bred dopes. The process began some 90 years ago, but really picked up steam since the breeding of the Baby Doomers raised on nothing but propaganda.
Jas - are you still here? I do sincerely want to know. I have my own beliefs for the cause of the sad situation, just wanted to know what yours was.
"beyond the pale" apparently pre-dates the various ethnic/national Pales and originally meant in the literal sense of beyond the palisade (border fence).
lawyerliz writes:
Dry--Maybe your area is the one area in the whole country that he has given up on?
lawyerliz | 10.26.08 - 6:35 pm | #
Maybe - we'll see. We usually get pummeled with callers from the DFL (our local variant of the Democratic Party - stands for Democratic Farmer Labor Party - I kid you not, look it up).
stood exactly in the center of the ground zero he had designated in Red Square. He looked around and saw young couples with babies, children, old people. He burst into tears.
Truer words never spoken, about remembering the humanity involved. If love were everyone's guiding aim, we wouldn't have to worry about, well, anything really. Wouldn't that be nice?
British insurance companies will not be bailed out by the United States, The Times has learnt. It is understood that although Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, was prepared to listen to appeals for cash from British and American insurers, he is adamant that US bailout funds will go only to federally regulated financial institutions that lend money.
This excludes insurers such as Prudential, Friends Provident, Standard Life and Aviva, which have all sufferered steep share price falls this month despite giving reassurances about their capital strength.
Florida, NC, VA Bradley won't be that big (IMHO) first because they have larger minority populations but also I think poll more 'true' - less likely to say one thing & do another.
But in the Midwest where rural means almost all white and racism is less overt but no less present - I think the possibility for a big Bradley Effect is high. Higher than folks realize.
Again I could be wrong - I am waiting for the results myself.
dryfly | 10.26.08 - 4:28 pm |
dryfly--have been lurking here for a couple of years and really appreciate the thoughtfulness of your postings. i'm curious about your read of the intrade results wrt bradley effect? seems to me that "social desirability bias" will be less of an impact in a completely anonymous on-line betting forum, and that people wagering here are primarily concerned with making money. that's the theory, at least, and it seems to have proven pretty accurate in the short term (less than 30 days) and with only 2 primary actors (ie not as effective in primaries). at this point obama's knocking the socks off mccain with +200 electoral votes--even if those states indicating 50-70% democrat (MO, IN, OH, NC and FL) flip to mccain, obama still wins. and intrade would seem to indicate that MN, WI, IA, and IL are solidly dem this go around (wagering in the +90% range).
could be some selection bias at work in that many of your disaffected folks aren't electronics futures participants, but i suspect that'd have been the case in most of the intrade historical data set.
would appreciate your thoughts on electronic futures markets vs traditional polling and bradley effect. apologies if this topic has been covered before.
Where I live in conservative Southern California both national candidates have long since moved on since the checks having cleared and our has been money spent elsewhere. Our part is over. Back to another 4 years of financial hostility.
Troy | 10.26.08 - 6:43 pm | Thanks, and makes sense. Beyond the fire light and order of society. My Mother used to use that expression. It was for a totally uncivil act.
In April 1995, the yen hit a peak of under 80 yen per dollar, temporarily making Japan's economy nearly the size of the US.
[edit]Post-bubble years
The yen declined during the Japanese asset price bubble and continued to do so afterwards, reaching a low of ¥134 to US$1 in February 2002. The Bank of Japan's policy of zero interest rates has discouraged yen investments, with the carry trade of investors borrowing yen and investing in better-paying currencies (thus further pushing down the yen) estimated to be as large as $1 trillion.[4] In February 2007, The Economist estimated that the yen is 15% undervalued against the dollar and as much as 40% undervalued against the euro.[
1st
I am SOOOOOO proud
How much dry powder does the IMF actually have?
worse than a loan shark. Enjoy
Not enough to save the world.
So when does the IMF bail out US?
Soon, my son, soon...
Well I guess that means game over for Ukraine's housing bubble.
Kiev, Ukraine: The biggest and most obvious housing bubble in the world?
"IMF to ATTEMPT to Bail Out Ukraine"
Are they getting Buffet's terms? Mmmmm, preferred stock in an entire country. Kinda like the Chicomms have going with the US.
I've been waiting a long time for my ship to come in and when it did,it was a hardship!
Loan from IMF = pwned
The IMF has more than $200 billion of loanable funds and can draw on additional resources through two standing borrowing arrangements with groups of IMF member countries.
IMF Survey: IMF Set to Lend $16.5 Billion to Ukraine
Along the lines of Nemo's question, how much funding does the IMF have available?
I am under the distinct impression that it does not have access to Ben Bernanke's Remarkable Patented Printing Press; which raises the question of how many such bailouts they will be able to do--and which also raises the question of if further deterioration could render the IMF insolvent.
Damn we better hurry and get in line before they run out of money.
I will see your Ukraine, and raise you a Kuwaiti bank
Saudi Arabia contributes $2.7bn in interest free loan as part of deal
Bond Girl just answered one of my questions. But access to standing borrowing arrangements from other countries? I would be interested to know which countries are doing so well that they have extra money to lend the IMF.
IMF General Agreements to Borrow
Factsheet -- IMF Standing Borrowing Arrangements
Belarus on deck for the Minsk(y) momment?
followed by a double Baltic Header.
Base-ball been berry berry good to me.
money = 01101101 01101111 01101110 01100101 01111001
sorry, those are 2 separate things
Kuwait supports a regional bank and Saudi Arabia provides up to $2.7bn to needy citizens
Suggests that Saudi Arabia is preparing to stick with existing exchange rate status quo, by protecting the needy from further expected inflatio
Eurasia swingin for the ringfence.
seriously folks, que up for the handouts....lines geeting longer every week.
Where's the end of the line for me to get into?
I even know what IMF means....
Just read an excellant piece on the emerging market debt crisis by Ambrose
Evans Pritchard in the Telegraph.
Apparently it is far larger than the US mortgage debt problem and the exposure is concentrated in Western European banks. Pritchard notes Austria's exposure is 85% of GDP, Switzerland 50%, Sweden 25%, UK 24% though British exposure is mostly in Asia not Eastern Europe.
This looks like the next shoe to drop on the global financial system.
This looks like the next shoe to drop on the global financial system.
Unit472
Shoes are us. We got more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I guess that means that McBush's fantasy of Ukraine and Georgia's entry into NATO as a full member (capable of meeting the military standards) will need to be postponed while the banks go ahead of the military in line for upgrade.
This looks like the next shoe to drop on the global financial system.
That's why the G20 on 11/15 is so important. Question is: will Bush be there as the sitting president, or will he hand the reins to the winner?
Unfortunately Volker this emerging market debt crisis looks to be more a big boot than a dainty slipper.
Total emerging market debt $4.7 trillion. Can the IMF finance that?
What happened to the baseball metaphors? Everybody asks which inning we're in and the freaking National Anthem hasn't played yet.
2008 Word of the Year:
Bailout.
Volker the Viking writes:
What happened to the baseball metaphors? Everybody asks which inning we're in and the freaking National Anthem hasn't played yet.
Oh... The Anthem's been played a while ago. The issue is that the visitors are going to bat around during the 5th and everyone knows it.
I assume people have seen Mish's article about the funds extracted from Australian insurance companies due to the unintended consequences of deposit insurance... Yep. Not at the bottom.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
if we forget that currency crises can overwhelm credit crises, which can overwhelm equity crises
we are doomed to repeat them
why not post it again:
I don't think this is correct. If you hold a 2% bond, you get 2% of the bonds inflation adjusted principal. If the inflation adjusted principal is 90, you get 2% of 90. If the bond were redeemed the same year, you would get 100.
$16B. Baaahh. Wouldn't even register a headline for draws on TARP V1.0.
Agree with Rob Dawg: loaning money and 'bailing out' are not necessarily in the same universe.
That's why the G20 on 11/15 is so important. Question is: will Bush be there as the sitting president, or will he hand the reins to the winner?
Basel Too | 10.26.08 - 2:48 pm | #
I heard he would invite the winner assuming there is one by then.
oops - goofed up somehow
The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
unclear where my previous post came from - weird
Sorry guys..
The IMF is irrelevant.. They are pretending that they are not the walking dead. Nice try.. but the current economic crisis cannot he fixed by bankrupt losers. The key to economic growth now is creating jobs and increasing consumption in all countries, even the so called 'poor' countries. Of that does not happen soon, the whole system will fall apart so badly that putting it together may take over a generation.. at least.
dryfly - just saw that N.H. expects to vote Obama by a landslide.
I'm doubting your McCain win.
Outsider and dryfly:
I agree with your hypothesis, but not the conclusion. McNailin is done/finished. The election is over. Now will somebody please take down all the friggin' signs and end the commercials. Kthxbai.
As in my state of MN, it doesn't matter how many reluctant Obama voters there are, the dem. ticket is gonna carry most states electoral votes without difficulty. Landslide is the term that fits here. Won't be decided in the courts. Maybe some usual voter fraud and whatever 2008's 'hanging chad,' buzzword will be. And you can take that to the bank, assuming any are solvent on Nov.5.
I'll bet my stimulus check on it...,
Why don't they just issue bonds like CA. More future claims on income taxes of the increasing pool of unemployed CA workers.
ANyone else see that the entire global economy is on its last gasp.
Woe be to them who accept the IMF terms and conditions.
--
Looks like that the whole world would need a bailout. So much for the experiment in Finance-Controlled capitalism.
The financial markets have become the Achilles hill of the real economies everywhere.
America WILL take everyone with it. The question is: Who would come out looking better? A: None of the current democracies. No? Undisciplined and unruly middle-class democratic people when they don't have money for necessities? That is the DANGER ahead.
Jas
PS: Sorry for more than 30 words.
Alloy for allay and this toolth for that soolth. Lick it and like it. A barter, a parter. And plenty good enough, neighbour Norreys, every bit and grain.
we are doomed to repeat them
Montas Ankle
Nope. We're doomed to inflect them.
On the subject of Emerging markets AND the upcoming Fed meeting:
What they have in common is a shortage of dollar liquidity created by the combination of de-levering AND dollar cash hoarding. The two factors together causing the velocity of money to crash.
The Fed has a problem. Their preferred solution was to turn the institution into a gigantic bank that would absorb the brunt of the de-levering. The idea was to borrow form banks and Treasury, and then buy securities of every stripe to cushion the de-levering process.
Unfortunately, the "big bank" idea has caused velocity to crash. Banks are parking all their liquidity at the Fed, and they feel "safe" enough to bankrupt their customers by cutting off credit. We don't see the cut-off in the official numbers because its (temporarily) offset by big corporations drawing on bank credit lines. But once those lines are drawn down, bank credit data will show a plunge.
So what will (not should, mind you) the Fed do about it? They know they can't fight de-levering. That means they have to address the second element: cash hoarding.
How do you get people to stop hoarding cash?
Promise them inflation by any means necessary.
Didn't Japan try that?
Not by any means necessary. Bernanke said as much himself in the 2002 BOJ deflation speech.
Time to fly the helicopters, Ben.
I'm surprised that none of these countries (Iceland, Ukraine, etc.) have figured out that they just need to introduce Powerball or the like to generate some revenues...
I'll bet my stimulus check on it...,
Sports Guy LaFleur
And I'll bet my idea of a pony on it.
Outsider writes:
dryfly - just saw that N.H. expects to vote Obama by a landslide.
I'm doubting your McCain win.
Outsider | 10.26.08 - 2:56 pm | #
I hade NH in the O camp already with the rest of the NE.
The states to watch are Penna, Ohio, Florida, Missouri... and to a lesser extent W Va, Va, NC, Wisc & Iowa. I would not be shocked to see McC win ALL of them though IA & WI would be somewhat of a surprise.
Again - all of them have large rural & exurban voter blockss who are going to be very hard to poll accurately. If they show up and vote - I think O has trouble from an electoral vote perspective. He still could win the popular vote w/ landslides in places like NY & Cali.
The rubes are pretty disillusioned though and might not show up.
We'll see. I've been wrong before (2006 - didn't believe the dems would sweep both houses).
Chinese paper says U.S. plundered the world:
U.S. has plundered world wealth with dollar: China paper
| Reuters
Sing it Diana !
Through the mirror of my mind
Time after time
I see inflections of you and me
Inflections of
The way life used to be
Inflections of
The money you took from me
I'm all alone now
No funds to shield me
Trapped in a world of distorted reality
Happiness you took from me
And left me alone
With only memories.
The headline actually should read: IMF to Impoverish and Destroy the Poeple Of Ukraine". What a disaster. Slavery was never really abolished, it was simply revolutionized in 1913 and made official when Nixon took US off the gold standard. IMF is one of the Parasites who help keep or re-work the world order into what the US thinks it should be.
Maybe just maybe The IMF will bail out The Hedge Funds, to keep US from having CU.
so a capital flight from emerging markets. funny thing tough, slovakian state bonds could not be sold 6 months ago, because we had too good rating and the yield was too low.
ANyone else see that the entire global economy is on its last gasp.
bearly | 10.26.08 - 3:01 pm | #
Chest compressions were started on Sept 15, 2008 when Lehman went broke. No pulse yet...
Won't be decided in the courts.
Don't be so sure. There's already lawsuits filed in eight states over Obama's elgibility.
http://mobiusinformer.wordpress.com/2008/10/18/what-if-obamas-not-eligible-to-become-president/
Didn't Japan try that?
From what little i know of the japanese, their psyche is different.
If i am not mistaken, there was a time a 'bailout' was given to them and an elder japanese lady promptly returned the amount on account that she did not earn the money and therefore it wasn't hers to spend.
Of course i may be mistaken. Although a culture that will commit harakiri or seppuku is not a good case study for any economic plan that will be tried in the west.
Chinese paper says U.S. plundered the world:
http://www.reuters.com/article/ n...E49N1XX20081024
Took them long enough to find out.
YouTube - Ukraine is weak
Ukraine is weak!
I'm surprised I'm the first to post this.
Electoral-vote.com: Election news
RE: lawsuits--dismissed, one of them at least, others are in even less sympathetic Appellate Court districts.
RE: sell shirts: and hoopajoops!
Torquemada - awesome
Ukraine?
Speaking of countries American's can't find on a map, how's Kazakhstan doing? Or Cleveland for that matter.
The key to economic growth and stability is increased consumption. Now I know that some of you have issues with people who do not look like you having a good lifestyle. Many like to believe in some neo-malthusian fantasy. Some more believe that we know "all there is to know" and " we can predict the future". Then again hubris is not restricted to wallstreet types.
The sad reality is that humans (especially "experts") are very bad at predicting the future. Our most accurate predictions have a horizon of 5 (general) maybe 10 years (for specific areas). The history of mankind (not just the west) is littered with unanticipated deviationa from the course of events. One of the few common threads in human history is that every group that thought they had control and ultimate knowledge lost because of hubris induced comlpacency.
A lot of "peak this" and "peak that" is driven by people who think that others don't deserve it and "we know best". Such thinking on limits is particularly seductive to clever monkeys who have to maintain their relevance in heirarchy. then there is the second issue- that clever monkeys spend too much time trying to win the game, rather than create a better game.
But it always end the same way for all clever monkeys.. It has been since the begining of human history..
ROFL, the comments in that article about ukraina are funny. some RE seller talking up their book
Torq, lol
RE: eligibility, McCain has his own problem, what with being born in Panama.
The law concerning citizenship wasn't changed until several years after his birth outside the United States. I know, I know, technicality. Well, so what?
"This is a once-in-a-lifetime, and possibly the largest financial crisis of its kind in human history"
Bank of England Deputy Governor Charlie Bean.
The British authorities are a bit more
candid than gibberish spouting US Central Bankers.
As in my state of MN, it doesn't matter how many reluctant Obama voters there are, the dem. ticket is gonna carry most states electoral votes without difficulty. - Sports Guy LaFleur
Where in MN? I live there too - in the SE part of the state (border of Congressional Dist 1 & Dist 2) - I know the city will go solidly 'O'... and the suburbs split. I think outstate will go MUCH stronger McPain than polls indicate. I still expect MN to go Obama but closer than people think.
IA, WI - I wouldn't bet regardless of what polls say.
There's Russians in Atlanta??
Seattle Post-Intelligencer: David Horsey
The idea that Obama's mom got on a prop plane when she was 8 months pregnant and flew from Hawaii to Africa is nuts.
Nations are beginning to fail now...interesting times we are living in.
And 'they' said it was all limited to subprime mortgages...
dryfly
Northwest T.C.
I've been reading your entries over the past few months, and knew you were up here too. You have sensible comments.
Won't it be nice when the Franken/Coleman race is over?
Sorry dryfly - I didn't read your postings in the last thread before I wrote - don't want to beat a dead horse here. Of all the NE states, NH would have been probably the most likely to vote McCain, altho the influx of Mass. people has I believed changed a lot here politically.
Anyway, this seems to be a pretty good running count of where things stand:
Electoral-vote.com: Election news
And now I won't pollute this thread with the election anymore.
Won't it be nice when the Franken/Coleman race is over?
Sports Guy LaFleur | 10.26.08 - 3:22 pm | #
Amen.
I wonder if free market capitalism is itself only a ponzi scheme.
It works as long as there are new dopes to sell stuff to. When you run out of new dopes, a recession/depression results. The R/D resets the old dopes back into new dopes by taking their wealth back and the cycle repeats.
If the the cycles endures for 40 years or so, the masses don't remember that this keeps happening and we go blissfully on.
I think a new economic order is called for. Maybe Obama socialism would be a good thing.
once the IMF gets involved....You can say good by to the country in need in about a years time.
Won't it be nice when the Franken/Coleman race is over? - Sports Guy LaFleur
Amen. - dryfly
Yeah right. If Franken loses, excuse me, has the election stolen from him we'll never hear the end of it. And if Franken wins then we'll never hear the end of him either.
Police say Obama had 100,000 crowd in Denver central park today. Not a mirage...
Ukraine - Borderland, occupied and fought over for many centuries. That poor country. In modern times the victim of Stalin, Khrushchev, and the operators of Chernobyl.
There's an infamous photograph from the Soviet famine showing a close frame of two obviously mad peasants, a man and a woman, almost skeletons, sitting down, and between them a basin containing a human head partially immersed in blood.
"The question is: Who would come out looking better? A: None of the current democracies. No? Undisciplined and unruly middle-class democratic people when they don't have money for necessities? That is the DANGER ahead."
Absolutely, but don't underestimate the internal turmoil any country's political system faces in times of severe economic stress. On this point, you aren't pessimistic enough, Jas. At least democracy offers a pressure-release valve -- elections --coupled with the false sense that the ordinary guy has some real say in and control over his future.
Anyway, this seems to be a pretty good running count of where things stand:
Electoral-vote.com: Election news
And now I won't pollute this thread with the election anymore.
Outsider | 10.26.08 - 3:24 pm | #
If you aren't advocating - and I'm not either - it's not 'pollution'. Its analyzing the horse race.
Go to the site and use their polling data state by state - you can see the state by state numbs just by running the cursor over each state... add in a 'Bradley Effect' fudge factor & revisit your assumptions. I'm going w/ +/- 5% for rural states and less for large urban ones (say +/- 3%).
If that happens almost all the 'Leans Obama' and 'Toss Ups' end up as McC states. The electoral outcome is very different then.
That's a 'Big IF' but I think it will happen.
DutchR writes:
money = 01101101 01101111 01101110 01100101 01111001
0110011001110101011011100110111001111001001000000110110101101111011011100110010101111001 DutchR:)
JimPortlandOR : I believe the Broncos have a bye this week.
Rob/dryfly : This senate race is a classic example of the Alien vs. Predator tagline
"whoever wins, we lose."
"Yeah right. If Franken loses, excuse me, has the election stolen from him we'll never hear the end of it. And if Franken wins then we'll never hear the end of him either." - Rob Dawg
As another long term MN TC resident, from what I know of Coleman's history (from when he was mayor of St.Paul) that comment would fit Coleman's likely responses also.
The first bullets of the war on Syria/Iran have just been fired(also means market will be up as this indicates US still has money and defense business is back).
details below.
MarketWarnings: US attacks Syria october 26, 2008). Is iran war next?
Took a cruise down the Dnieper from Kiev to the Crimea back in 93. Their historic currency had been the Hrivna (pronounced Grivna) before Soviet times.
In 93 they were using Carbovnets, literally coupons. When I arrived, they were 93 to the dollar and 3 weeks later at 115.
Ukraina is a torn country. Our State Dept. is trying to finish the job. The IMF are a bunch of freaking clowns.
My daughter who teaches school in Prague is enjoying the rise of the dollar. Eastern Europe including the Baltics are is a heap of hurt but they are relatively small in the scheme of things.
Anyone have a guess what Hedge funds the treasury will inject capital into?
Yeah right. If Franken loses, excuse me, has the election stolen from him we'll never hear the end of it. And if Franken wins then we'll never hear the end of him either.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 3:29 pm | #
Franken isn't that popular. I give him less than even odds. Coleman was vulnerable but Franken proved to be a poor campaigner. He would have been better off writing script and letting somebody else deliver the punchline (say Bill Murray).
Again not advocating - just calling the horse race.
As another long term MN TC resident, from what I know of Coleman's history (from when he was mayor of St.Paul) that comment would fit Coleman's likely responses also.
--Andrew
Yeah but Coleman doesn't have a pliant media conduit hanging on his every clever insult. He wouldn't be afforded a stage from where to launch his invectives.
Dean, contain youserlf.
Lucifer: stop it, you're beginning to sound like me.
I really don't mind tough black bread and cabbage soup, all day every day.
Slightly more credible source:
The article requested is no longer available.
Hey, a got a question to all the geo-politiconomics wonks.
One of things that will happen during th G20 will be that China will have to diversify its reserves and surpluses. Hopefully, this will, among others: stabilize (for the time being) other emerging markets, increase China's domestic consumption, and reduce their exports. Most of these, if not all, will be good for US domestic manufacturers.
What the hell can we do with the GCC? It's not like exactly like the export anything other than oil. Furthermore, how much more domestic consumption can places like Dubai and Kuwait support?
It's probably healthier than what we are eating now.
But, yuck.
I just squeezed the first tangerine juice of the season. Super yum. So I will delicious citrus along with the black bread & cabbage.
By the way, the great wave claims grain prices in US revolutionary times was highly correlated with grain prices everywhere, which seems very strange to me given the distances, etc. If so, everything was always connected.
All politics is local.
and even more boring if you aren't from there. Excuse the OT Franken/Coleman stuff.
Back to the IMF comments.
Dryfly, since I also posted this site above, I'll opine.
The Bradley effect may be overrated. There are many anecdotal stories accompanying the polling narrative. The electorate is aroused, angry and this is a natural progression from the fear they sense. Many in places one would otherwise doubt, will pull the lever for the one they think will get something, anything done. The electoral vote may well be a landslide. Of course, there's yet eight days and a wake up to go.
Also, the Obama ground game is one that has the old line of each party awestruck. A well organized and growing phalanx of workers leaning forward into the trenches, phoning, knocking, getting the early vote out and to the polls. much of the action is happening out of range of the MSM radar.
Meanwhile, Walnuts is still yammering about terrorists, inexperience and socialism. Go visit one of the R's state offices. The phone banks are unmanned, the access to volunteers is restricted (if any are even around) and the party line is repeated.
Nope, this will be an electoral landslide surpassed few times in presidential election history.
Ukraine: "The Poles were fighting the Russians. The Russians were fighting the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians were fighting the Poles and the Russians but all were fighting the Turk."
Yeah but Coleman doesn't have a pliant media conduit hanging on his every clever insult. He wouldn't be afforded a stage from where to launch his invectives.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 3:38 pm | #
Rob - you don't live here, we do, it isn't working for 'Al'. He might win but I think he is swimming against the current.
He's getting more media attention out YOUR way from Tinsel Town media then our folks give him. Now if Al had been involved in a hockey franchise... or won a national hockey title playing for the gophers... then they'd give him some slack out here. Who cares about SNL anyway - only turn to it after the hockey game is over. Priorities.
If you aren't advocating - and I'm not either - it's not 'pollution'. Its analyzing the horse race.
I'm not advocating. I'm a card carrying member of the "suffering" party - as in suffering no matter who wins. Would love to write in Ron Paul, who isn't exactly perfect either, but think my vote is going to go against whomever I think the absolute worst evil is. And that I haven't totally decided.
Ross - before Soviet times, the Ukrainian currency was Russian ruble.
Come to think of it, not counting the last 15 years, I am not sure if Ukraine ever had its own real currency
OT-Phil Matier was interviewing the US Attorney in San Francisco a few minutes ago.
The US Attorney said that they were going to be prosecuting folks who lied on their mortgage paperwork. If it was just some poor shlub was got in over his or her head by lying about income to buy an overpriced tool shed with running water, the Feds would cut them a deal: "plead guilty to a felony, but no jail time".
If they plead guilty then they committed fraud and will be responsible for the loan plus be a convicted felon with all the downside.
Unbelievable. Can't wait for them to figure out a way to make charging up your CC to survive a crime. Look for many pro bank changes to bankruptcy laws next year.
Anonymous | 10.26.08 - 3:46 pm - that was me
We have been called by the O campaign perhaps a dozen times, and not once by McC.
They got my ofc email address, and I can't tell you how many emails I've had to delete.
The enthusiasm is unbelievable by all races, sexes and ages. Only exception is the Cubans. My Cuban secy intends to vote for O. People bring it up at the ofc, unbidden. They sound proud.
"Joe Biden" female, just called on my cell phone number.
Anon,
I think you may be right...
Dryfly:
In the two NC Senate races between Helms and the black ex-major of Charlotte the vote vs poll swing was 3% to Helms for the reasons you describe.
Results may be different this time.
I'm not suggesting that a "Bradley effect" does not exist but that it may be 1-2% rather than the 5% you are assuming.
Post election analysis will be very interesting.
Jim
NC Jim - You're another state with an influx of "ferners" the past several years. Changes voting patterns, like you said.
NC Jim :"Post election analysis will be very interesting"
You got that right. I think some phrases might include:
If it was just some poor shlub was got in over his or her head by lying about income to buy an overpriced tool shed with running water, the Feds would cut them a deal: "plead guilty to a felony, but no jail time".
A couple of weeks ago on here, I tried to explain (but to no avail) just how difficult it is to write and enforce a fraud statute under the federal court's mens rea requirement. Because of the zealousness to enforce fraud, we're basically moving to a statutory standard, no intent required.
People think that predatory lending laws were discriminatory, statutory crimes, when combined with minimum sentencing guidelines, are a totally different beast...
Also, the Obama ground game is one that has the old line of each party awestruck. A well organized and growing phalanx of workers leaning forward into the trenches, phoning, knocking, getting the early vote out and to the polls. much of the action is happening out of range of the MSM radar.
The O people are completely invisible in my neck of the woods - first time EVER I've not been called to death by DFL activists (I live in a very blue collar neighborhood - strong DFL ties - where are they?).
I have heard similar anecdotes from friends in rural WI, IA & MO... where are they if they are EVERYWHERE?
Were we written off early? Assumed locked up? If so they have a surprise coming...
And as for race? I know people are careful what they say - I'm one of those 'disarming' types that folks seem to always tell me a lot than they intended. I've heard a lot of not so subtle racial jabs at O - more than I thought I'd hear. I think we've come a long way from summer of '68 but we aren't THAT far yet.
That is my point. I am very well prepared to admit I might be wrong but all I can do is say what I see & hear & it doesn't jive w/ what the polls indicate.
One benefit of not voting for over a decade is a sense of objectivity.
The smell of desperation here is... disturbing. I hope y'all are right but I suspect you are not. The Machine succumbs to no man, particularly one who is beholden to it.
People think that predatory lending laws were discriminatory, statutory crimes, when combined with minimum sentencing guidelines, are a totally different beast...
Basel Too | 10.26.08 - 3:54 pm | #
Could you elaborate, please? What are the real world consequences you are referring to?
The US Attorney said that they were going to be prosecuting folks who lied on their mortgage paperwork. If it was just some poor shlub was got in over his or her head by lying about income to buy an overpriced tool shed with running water, the Feds would cut them a deal: "plead guilty to a felony, but no jail time".
There will be a new set of US Atty's in January. Obama is fierce on fraud (he's been pushing aggressive anti-mortgage-fraud provision from 2006) but he recognizes the problem is the mortgage broker fraud mills, not the chumps and small-timers they got to sign up. Resources will be allocated accordingly.
The bankruptcy changes will favor the general population, not the banks.
I was wondering why there had not been any prosecution for loan fraud.
I'm delighted to the see the US Attorney for the Northern District of California pursuing these cases.
Lying about your income on a loan application is a serious matter in that you are, in effect, cheating a bank out of hundreds of thousands of dollars. Most definitely a class one
felony. If convicted I would presume banks could also pursue deficiency judgements as the loan was obtained through fraud.
Are you guys ready for futures open and such? Yen and won and Indonesian index closures? I'm planning to watch "scare tactics" reruns on Tivo, drink Diet Coke Lime and browse some financial websites.
Shenanigans at the IMF: The Strauss-Kahn / Piroska Nagy affair
Monetary Fund Won't Fire Director for Sexual Affair - NY Times
Commenter on another site, someone I usually detest, put it rather well: if Dems win majority House, 60 Senate, and Pres, things better be Oz by next Summer - anything less than zippity doo dah and they're dead.
Thinking strategically, if I was Russia or another beligerant country it would be a good time for military actions against other countries knowing that Obama has pledged to bring troops home.
dryfly: it's good this exchange we're having
The talking about it is where the progress is made. Where the getting over it occurs. And if, by some whim of fate or blessings of a higher power or the solid work of hundreds of thousands of people, Obama gets elected--this too will serve to further us along as a people, as a society of all men (and women).
The bankruptcy changes will favor the general population, not the banks.
Fair Economist | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 3:57 pm | #
"Barack Obama proposed on Tuesday changing bankruptcy laws to fast-track the process for military families, help seniors keep their homes and protect people recovering from natural disasters."
Smoke and mirrors. The changes proposed only benefit a very small portion of the people in trouble. Look for this to be passed and used to point out who has been helped when the standards change for the majority of Americans.
Emp writes:
Thinking strategically, if I was Russia or another beligerant country it would be a good time for military actions against other countries knowing that Obama has pledged to bring troops home.
Emp
You'd be mistaken.
Well things aren't going to be "OZ by the summer of 2009. More likely it will be hell on earth especially if the Dems pass tax increases.
We are experiencing a major economic collapse not a lousy recession. That some think we can get out of this multi-trillion dollar cockup with just a couple of quarters of minor economic contraction is madness.
The Bradley effect hasn't been seen for 15 years. It didn't affect Braun, Patrick, or Obama. Obama has pretty consistently beat his poll numbers, so there's certainly no Bradley effect left in Democrats or independents. There aren't enough pro-Obama Repubs to make a difference. Add in the fact that a 5% shift isn't nearly enough - Obama is ahead by 7%, and the electoral distribution favors him (even vote splits tend to go his way) and McCain has a huge uphill climb.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
Commenter on another site, someone I usually detest, put it rather well: if Dems win majority House, 60 Senate, and Pres, things better be Oz by next Summer - anything less than zippity doo dah and they're dead.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 4:01 pm | #
Too much and too easily won success is always the worst thing that can happen to a person or party - that and misreading anger at the 'other guy' as a mandate for your policies.
But it happens.
2010 might end up as crazy as 1994 was.
October Surprise Time?
US Choppers Attack village near Iraq border
i.e. inside Syria.
Syria: US choppers attack village near Iraq border
emp, why should vladimir send even one soldier to Krym xD when all he needs to do is just wait until the IMF has finished "helping" Ukraina. that should be just long enough for UA to run back to Moscow on its own free will.
Emp writes:
Thinking strategically, if I was Russia or another beligerant country it would be a good time for military actions against other countries knowing that Obama has pledged to bring troops home.
If I were Russia, I would rather consider anouncing that I would start moving my $500+ Bil reserves out of USD. That would do more to promote my cross-broder interests.
Russia too is in the eye of the storm, despite its energy wealth or because of it. The cost of insuring Russian sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) surged to 1,200 basis points last week, higher than Icelands debt before Götterdammerung struck Reykjavik.
The markets no longer believe that the spending structure of the Russian state is viable as oil threatens to plunge below $60 a barrel. The foreign debt of the oligarchs ($530bn) has surpassed the countrys foreign reserves. Some $47bn has to be repaid over the next two months.
Traders are paying close attention as contagion moves from the periphery of the eurozone into the core. They are tracking the yield spreads between Italian and German 10-year bonds, the stress barometer of monetary union.
The spreads reached a post-EMU high of 93 last week. Nobody knows where the snapping point is, but anything above 100 would be viewed as a red alarm. The market took careful note on Friday that Portugals biggest banks, Millenium, BPI, and Banco Espirito Santo are preparing to take up the states emergency credit guarantees.
Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, says there is an imminent danger that East Europes currency pegs will be smashed unless the EU authorities wake up to the full gravity of the threat, and that in turn will trigger a dangerous crisis for EMU itself.
Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown
- Telegraph
Volker the Viking writes:
dryfly: it's good this exchange we're having
The talking about it is where the progress is made. Where the getting over it occurs. And if, by some whim of fate or blessings of a higher power or the solid work of hundreds of thousands of people, Obama gets elected--this too will serve to further us along as a people, as a society of all men (and women).
Volker the Viking | 10.26.08 - 4:03 pm | #
I agree.
Add in the fact that a 5% shift isn't nearly enough - Obama is ahead by 7%, and the electoral distribution favors him (even vote splits tend to go his way) and McCain has a huge uphill climb.
With the Bradley Effect you're taking away 5% from Obama and giving it to McCain, for a net 10 point swing.
aleister perdurabo, and how big is russian souvereign debt? i remember they paid off all of their debt towardsparis club one or two years ago earlier than supposed to.
Problem for Putin is Russia has more foreign debt than foreign reserves and with the oil price collapsing and Europe entering a recession his gas exports will be hurting too.
Putin will be liquidating his reserves alright but not to punish the US but to stave off another economic collapse.
He might find it advantageous though to start a war someplace to preserve his hold on the Russian people during hard economic times. Maybe just annex
Georgia though reabsorbing Ukraine is probably his great ambition.
Those aren't the only pro-individual changes to the bankruptcy code Obama wants. He's also pushing cramdowns. Plus, don't forget he opposed the 2005 bankruptcy deform act.
Obama has consistently opposed the nasty parts of recent bankruptcy law and you can count on him rolling them back, not forward. He has always had a traditionalist approach to debt and bankruptcy.
Dryfly:
The Gold Standard of post-WWII electoral victories:
1964
LJB: 486 EVs
Goldwater: 52 EVs
Popular Vote:
LBJ: 61.1%
Goldwater: 38.5
States won:
LBJ: 44
Goldwater: 6
www.fivethirtyeight.com
O-Man: 349.9 EVs (current)
McBush: 188.1 EVs
www.pollster.com
O-Man: 306 EVs (current)
McBush: 142 EVs
Toss-UP: 90 EVs
(MT, ND, SD, NV, MO, IN, NC, GA, FL)
I give NV, MO, NC and FL to Obama. McBush gets, SD
Tossup's are MT, ND, IN, GA
Obama may well beat LBJ, imo.
The bet is admitting here after the votes are counted that you misread the public. Taker?
Why isn't anyone judging a Democratic President with a possible filibuster proof Democratic majority in Congress as being a threat to America. If I wrote the same sentence using the word Republican we'd be flipping out in panic.
What is the difference between the Dems and Repubs? Didn't the passing of the totally ineffective bailout bill clue anyone in to the fact there is no difference between the parties? Isn't Obama's largest contributor Goldman Sachs? Who are we kidding here? Change will only come from the citizenry demanding change.
I voted for Obama and am a lifetime democratic voter. I am not fooling myself anymore about either party looking out for the citizens of this country.
WikiAnswers - Who are Barack Obama's biggest campaign donors
Re Russian Sovereign CDS - The Russian Government is unlikely to have debt problems. It is overleveraged Russian oligarchs that are in deep trouble - which is actually a welcome development for the Kremlin, who will be able to decide who will get saved and who won't. In the end the Russian economy will get weaker, but the Russian government will have a stronger command over the economy. Mr. Putin will like that.
Unit472 writes:
Well things aren't going to be "OZ by the summer of 2009. More likely it will be hell on earth especially if the Dems pass tax increases.
If things aren't looking up by Summer 2010 - then it will be hell to pay for incumbents & especially those in the majority (assumed to be Dems) in Fall 2010.
But they will have some time to tinker - about 18 months. Not much considering how FUBAR things look now.
Why isn't anyone judging a Democratic President with a possible filibuster proof Democratic majority in Congress as being anything but a threat to America. If I wrote the same sentence using the word Republican we'd be flipping out in panic.
This is what I meant to type.
JimPortOr:
The bet is admitting here after the votes are counted that you misread the public.
It's easy to misread the public when the public can't read.
The bet is admitting here after the votes are counted that you misread the public. Taker?
JimPortlandOR | 10.26.08 - 4:13 pm | #
Sure - I very well might have misread the public but I don't think I have - show me in 10 or so days.
I have zero ego on being wrong here or elsewhere on the blogosphere - I very well could be way off.
The US Attorney said that they were going to be prosecuting folks who lied on their mortgage paperwork.
Bullroar. This is pure politicking. There is neither the political will to go after the little guy nor does any Fed/State/Local justice branch have the resources to prosecute small cases.
I've heard a lot of not so subtle racial jabs at O - more than I thought I'd hear.
Yes, racism is popping up even in So Cal, but it's met with disbelief and disinterest. Lack of an audience really shuts them down.
random account member: heheh. ya, too many that either can't read, or can't be rational, or whatever (they watch Faux News as their only source, etc.)
Problem for Putin is Russia...
I always smile when I read sentences like this, but not because it's wrong, but because it is so true.
Where else can a person step down from office and then become more powerful politically? Maybe Bushie is trying to emulate Putin?
There is neither the political will to go after the little guy nor does any Fed/State/Local justice branch have the resources to prosecute small cases.
People have been making the same criticisms over the war on drugs for 30 years...
I agree.
Pollution alert! Pollution alert!
Basel Too: Bush will be reigning in Paraguay from his 'ranch', with Halliburton manning the perimeter.
Commenter on another site, someone I usually detest, put it rather well: if Dems win majority House, 60 Senate, and Pres, things better be Oz by next Summer - anything less than zippity doo dah and they're dead.
Didn't work that way for Roosevelt. Anyway, the American population isn't that dumb. They'll blame the current admin for everything that goes bad at least until 2010, and rightfully so. We have deep and long-term problems and it's going to take years for fixes to really help. People are looking for fair and honest government now, not Tinkerbell. Fair and honest has always been at the center of Obama's proposals for just about everything (Iraq audits, Katrina audits, mortgage fraud control, earmark exposure, etc.).
things better be Oz by next Summer - anything less than zippity doo dah and they're dead.
Does the public really hold elected officials responsible anymore? I'm wondering how many have already forgotten which rep voted for or against the bailout, and whether that will show in the polls or not.
Smoke and mirrors
It all is. There no simple answers but even on this board, there's widespread belief that the color of a president will suddenly absolve them of $10 trillion in direct debt, $55 trillion in liabilities, and (at the moment) an annualized deficit of $5 trillion per year.
It's a good time for anyone to move militarily because the US is insolvent and will soon cut spending regardless of who is elected.
That's why we have the Russia & Georgia situation, that's why we have Somalia pirates hijacking ships.
I predict that most people will secretly be disappointed in their election choice by 2011 but will never admit it, even to themselves (as is par for the course for Americans these days).
Jas is the sanest person on the board and that's just plain sad.
"Maybe Obama socialism would be a good thing.
Gainas"
LMFAO. You socialists simply don'y get it. This is a violent world with many competing intersts. Prosperity means not letting up. Socialists go straight to the middle of the welfare line and stay there waiting for handouts.
T- 3 hours 40 minutes until Japan opens.
The voters blame who is in office. Reagan and his GOP Senate got hammered in 1982 for Jimmy Carter's recession (and Volker's tight money).
By 2010 Bush will be a distant memory as the economic shocks are not going to stop on Nov.4th. The bankruptcies and fallout from this mess are going to be with us for sometime.
Have the CR commenters penetrated both Krugman and Yves Smith's psyches?
Krugman headline today: "Desperately Seeking Seriousness" Remind you of anything?
Yves Smith talking about enjoying a good squirrel now and then??
It's like we're one big baggy febrile brain now.
Febrile... as in... The Febrile Government
Anyway, the American population isn't that dumb.
Tell that to Deval Patrick. Since he entered office in 2007, the populace has been blaming him for all of Mass's economic woes.
[Yes, racism is popping up even in So Cal, but it's met with disbelief and disinterest. Lack of an audience really shuts them down.
Feckless Ness ]
I'll let you in on a little secret. There's no audience in a voting booth.
Fair Economist: I agree with your view of a somewhat patient public if the government is seen to be trying to fix things.
Where I disagree, perhaps, is that Obama can't do anything substantative on cutting back Defense, National Security, et. al. because the GOP wingnuts will go apeshit on any cutbacks.
To bring things in line we need a big reduction on military expense (more in line with a non-imperial power), and THAT Obama won't be able to do. A crippling problem, imo.
With the Bradley Effect you're taking away 5% from Obama and giving it to McCain, for a net 10 point swing.
Captain Fish (Paper Pusher) | 10.26.08 - 4:12 pm | #
Yes - in states like Missouri, Pennsylvania, Ohio - I believe a swing THAT LARGE (+/- 5% over what is reported now) is possible due to 'Bradley'.
In effect the rubes & exurbs vote McCain in as large a spread as city people vote O... w/ suburbs split. A much larger spread than in 2000 or 2004.
In those states 'outstate' vote is a big proportion of the electorate.
Florida, NC, VA Bradley won't be that big (IMHO) first because they have larger minority populations but also I think poll more 'true' - less likely to say one thing & do another.
But in the Midwest where rural means almost all white and racism is less overt but no less present - I think the possibility for a big Bradley Effect is high. Higher than folks realize.
Again I could be wrong - I am waiting for the results myself.
WILL THIS EVER END...........
I would like to see more serious discussion of the IMF interventions. According to Automatic Earth, the IMF is a creature of US policies and corporations. There are apparently some folks rich enough to take advantage of the collapse in world economies. Any speculations?
Top Contributors to Barack Obama | OpenSecrets
Goldman Sachs $474,428 Ubs Ag $298,180 JP Morgan Chase & Co $282,387 Lehman Brothers $274,147 National Amusements Inc $265,750 Sidley Austin LLP $251,657 Citigroup Inc $247,436 University of California $239,944 Skadden, Arps et al $228,520 Exelon Corp $226,661 Harvard University $225,891 Jones Day $213,825 Google Inc $192,808 Time Warner $190,091 Morgan Stanley $190,026 Citadel Investment Group $173,950 Kirkland & Ellis $163,126 Latham & Watkins $160,842 WilmerHale LLP $155,788 Jenner & Block $151,447
The government elected by the many for the few. I see many banks and law firms in the top donors to Obama.
Didn't Obama start out promising to get our troops out of Iraq if elected? Continue to believe that electing Obama will result in a better nation.
McCain/Palin would be the final nail in our nations coffin. Don't misinterpret my criticisms of Obama as support for them. I am pointing out the fallacy we all face and ignore that voting in either a Repub or Dem will produce change. When I see large protests in the streets demanding change I will believe we have a chance.
Dry,
You aren't so much misreading as over reading. he media is slanting their polls for a few percent, the Bradley effect is another few percent and the popular vote will be far closer than the pundits suggest. Far closer than their margins of error once again. You'd think they'd have learned that lesson in 2000. Still won't be enough. We'll know early when Virginia and Pennsylvania are called. Either to O and the election is over. Really close in VA and it is still a probable O win in the Electoral College.
For an example, a relative near Dayton, OH with a spouse high up in the Air Force (full bird) and they are voting O because they are hoping for only one more deployment instead of three. I think that' weak logic but there is a serious case of Republican Executive Fatigue out there. Obama won't so much win his 354 votes as he will get the "not the Republican vote" by default. As an aside, IMO had McCain convinced Romney the polls would be more than reversed.
We already know what people who say they're going to vote for Obama do when they get into a voting booth alone.
They vote for Obama.
The experiment has been replicated dozens of times in the majority of the states in the Union. And that was running against a candidate quite close to him in policies, for whom race and experience were far more important just because otherwise the differences were few.
--
On the subject of bailouts and interventions
"The Fatal Conceit"!
The subject is the title of a book by Frederick Hayek. If he were alive today he would be an archenemy of Chair-moron Benjamin Shalom Bernankes policies socialism for bankers and financiers and incessant interventions in the economy.
Bernanke Claims: How politicians and central bankers created the Great Depression
Do we have better politicians and central bankers today? Oh, they have learned from history? LMAO! The guy IS fighting the last war, that of 1930s!
AMERICANS OF TODAY ARE FAR INFERIOR, INTELLECTUALLY AS WELL AS MORALLY, TO THE AMERICANS OF 50, 100, AND 200 YEARS AGO. They are conceited about their superiority of knowledge when they are undisputed history ignoramuses.
How in the hell can we have better politicians and central bankers? We cant. Only desperate people in America can be made to believe that Bernanke knows how to avoid depressions, or deflation. He only has one power, to make the outcome much worse than had he not been in power. The guy is an egomaniac in line with the worst of them in history. Can he control how hundreds of millions of people behave during a crisis? Disgusting.
Jas
AMERICANS OF TODAY ARE FAR INFERIOR, INTELLECTUALLY AS WELL AS MORALLY, TO THE AMERICANS OF 50, 100, AND 200 YEARS AGO.
And to what do you attribute that to, Jas?
AMERICANS OF TODAY ARE FAR INFERIOR, INTELLECTUALLY AS WELL AS MORALLY, TO THE AMERICANS OF 50, 100, AND 200 YEARS AGO.
You mean like when we had slavery, and no suffrage? Give it a rest Jas.
Fair Economist, the polls were dreadfully wrong in 2004 1 day ahead of the election. No one ever looked back and tried to figure out why or how to account for it. Instead we got a lot of silly unsubstantiated myths about fraud.
There was no Bradley effect. This time the polls might be off by twice as much, or more.
Outsider writes:
I agree.
Pollution alert! Pollution alert!
Outsider | 10.26.08 - 4:21 pm | #
I personally don't give shit who wins right about now - but I would LOVE to see a candidate's race no longer be an issue. I still think in a lot of circles it is. In mostly white rural US especially.
Similar to what JFK did to the Catholic/Protestant 'issue' which was HUGE when my parents were young. My father was catholic my mother was protestant and family members didn't want to go to the wedding (circa 1940s)... so they were well in tune with those vibes at the time. My father said it is hard to imagine now how big it was for him then.
There is only one way to make candidate's race no longer an issue - and it would be for a black to actually win the big one.
Having said that - the worst thing would be to win and then be a complete failure - which would fan the 'I told you so' flames for another (couple) generations.
But having a 'break through' election would change the social dynamics FOR EVER regardless of what you think of the guy's qualities or capabilities.
To deny that is just missing the boat.
They are conceited about their superiority of knowledge when they are undisputed history ignoramuses.
The majority are but the minority is fast growing an awareness.
There's still hope yet.
Fair Economist writes:
"Obama has .... always had a traditionalist approach to debt and bankruptcy"
You mean "populist", don't you?
While the IMF has $200 billion is reserve it has already committed 10% this weekend alone in emernecy loans. And the list of people needing help is growing. Not meniton the fact Russian Bonds are trading like the country is toast. The last time Russia went out that was major wave. In today's market it be a tsunima.
You mean "populist", don't you?
Problem with 'populist' is that it's democracy. May not be the right thing to do but it sure is what the masses want.
Seriously Jas, you have some valid points. The power to take is corrupting. Propaganda or information control is a concern anytime government centralizes power. The unionization of education has shifted the focus to budgets rather than outcomes so yes, the population by and large is primarily concerned about bread and circuses.
If you strip the negative hyperbole out of your message more people might react to your observations. Everyone here knows the disaster is upon us. No need to be insulting to get attention. Peace, love and don't bogart the joint, Bro.
Not at all, bearly: the last Bush-Kerry polls had Bush taking Ohio and Florida for the win. I think you're confusing the Zogby pro-Kerry outlier with the polling consensus, which was very close to the final outcome. Actually the polls were slightly more favorable to Bush: the only state they got wrong was Wisconsin, which they had going to Bush when it actually went for Kerry.
Who ever wins, won't matter, same dogs running the show.
CR, you've great. I've enjoyed following your blog, lo, these many months. You keep a level head and you seem to be a genuinely kind and caring individual. I've recommended Calculated Risk to many people and they've all responded favorably.
I'm rejoining the real world now, to see what I can do for my community. Maybe I can help my neighbors in the months and years ahead. There is much to be said for keeping the focus on the solution instead of the problem.
I wish you all the best.
U.S. Helicopters Attack Syrian Village, Killing Eight, AP Says
Syrian state TV said U.S. helicopters carrying soldiers raided a farm in the Syrian village of Hwijeh, 10 miles (16 kilometers) inside the border with Iraq, the Associated Press reported.
The area is near the Iraqi city of Qaim, which was considered a border crossing for insurgent fighters coming into Iraq, AP said.
The U.S. military in Baghdad declined to comment to AP.
Here's some humor...
I live in Oregon and we got our ballots last Monday. Fill it out and mail or drop it off. Great system. There were around 9 local positions with out two candidates to choose from. In each of those cases I wrote in Jas Jain as the write in choice. Gave me a chuckle.
How do they legally bail out a pile of douchebags like Citadel? Maybe some Russian gangsters can step in and "help out" with some short term financing?
sue writes:
"T- 3 hours 40 minutes until Japan opens."
Sue, what indicators are you watching? Links appreciated, and Thanks!
"Obama has .... always had a traditionalist approach to debt and bankruptcy"
You mean "populist", don't you?
Nope, traditionalist. He's opposed the populist moves like Hillary's foreclosure freeze and McCain's face value bailout. His fixes have leaned to efficiency measures and now restoring traditional policies like cramdowns.
$12 Help writes:
Seriously Jas, you have some valid points.
And one of them is right there at the tippy top of your head.
See, when you wax bellicose, and you already know this, you point your finger. everyone who has suffered knows that whenever one points a finger, there are three more pointing straight back at you.
dryfly "There is only one way to make candidate's race no longer an issue - and it would be for a black to actually win the big one"
Uhhh, how 'bout this... if Obama wins and we get that inevitable depression that he gets pinned to his chest like a congressional medal, he could be the last black elected to a substantial position for a generation or more.
If he is seen to be doing his best, and actually fighting a few special interests, and giving blood sweat and tears speeches, maybe not. People stuck with FDR didn't they? (not my family)
The IMF does not have the wherewithal to stem the emerging market crisis.
I thought a few weeks ago that we might muddle through until the boomers started to try to retire, but it increasingly seems to me that the entire system is going to collapse sometime in the next few months. The sovereign defaults are going to bury the European banks.
Thursday headline: GDP Contracts Most in 27 Years; DOW Falls Below 6000
btw - that's the buy
Clearly the matter of race is crucial in this election. Without Obama would not be the nominee, Hillary would be.
There can be no other explanation for the almost unanimous support Obama receives from black voters than his racial status. It is simply not possible in a free and fair election for a candidate to receive 90+% support from an electorate unless those voters are basing their vote on race above and beyond all other considerations!
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
btw - that's the buy
And you'll lose what's left of your ass.
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse writes:
Thursday headline: GDP Contracts Most in 27 Years; DOW Falls Below 6000
Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 4:54 pm | #
Let's watch this Syria story develop. Dow 6000 might be the least of our worries. Been waiting for real geopolitical crises to develop from the economies collapsing around the world.
He's opposed the populist moves like Hillary's foreclosure freeze
What about his foreclosure moratorium?
Syria? Is that near the Ukraine?
lawyerliz writes:
If he is seen to be doing his best, and actually fighting a few special interests, and giving blood sweat and tears speeches, maybe not. People stuck with FDR didn't they? (not my family)
lawyerliz | 10.26.08 - 4:51 pm | #
Results matter. People will have to have to at least have hope if not tangible results. FDR didn't fix the depression but folks in general had more hope... whether justified or not is a matter of opinion.
If O wins & folks have less hope in 2012 than now - he'll be considered a failure no matter how hard he 'tries' to get it right. I mean W 'tried' - told us how hard it all was - and we can't get rid of him fast enough.
What have you done me for me lately.
Obama will get his 100 days and then some and if things don't improve far beyond what is possible the media will turn on him with a vengance because by then the economic turmoil will be affecting them personally. Limosine Liberals... oh excuse me... Prius Progressives aren't so generous with OPM when it turns out it means their comfort suffers.
Oh, please unit. Black voters have been 90% democratic for years and years.
And why shouldn't they go for O?
Anonymous writes:
"You mean "populist", don't you?
Problem with 'populist' is that it's democracy. May not be the right thing to do but it sure is what the masses want."
That is why we have a Constitution, to provide some protection against majority sentiment, like "lets forgive all debts".
I was a Peace Corps volunteer in Poland, 1994-96.
I remember meeting a Ukrainian college student, and we got to talking about the differences between Poland and Ukraine. I mentioned that I heard that in Ukraine, they had white borscht, as opposed to the red borscht we ate in Poland. I told her that I knew that the red came from beets; what, I asked her, did they use to make white borscht?
She looked at me rather ruefully and said, "whatever we can find."
They're used to hard times in Ukraine. Really hard times.
--
"And to what do you attribute that to, Jas?"
Outsider,
Do you really want to know? They ARE born-and-bred dopes. The process began some 90 years ago, but really picked up steam since the breeding of the Baby Doomers raised on nothing but propaganda.
Jas
"Dow 4000 writes:
So when does the IMF bail out US?"
The IMF bails out only the worst performers. And we - the USA will not be the worst performer. I bet we will do the best within the next 3 years. Unfortunately, in this particular case performing the best still means we will endure HUGE amounts of pain.
Good day yo all, and best luck!
That is why we have a Constitution, to provide some protection against majority sentiment, like "lets forgive all debts".
Comrade Vistulian | Homepage | 10.26.08 - 4:58 pm | #
___________________-
Lets only forgive all the debts of the wealthy, the poor will still have to pay. We're all poor in the coming years.
Unless the US defaults on it's debt then the people of the US will be required to pay through much higher taxes. There is no answer to getting us out of the hole we've dug. If I'm wrong please enlighten me.
Futures down in Japan; anyone tired of the war yet?
Stock Futures on Bloomberg
Comment heard today from neighbor:
"The stock market is pricing in an Obama victory in the election."
Maybe
The big and dangerous difference between Poland and Ukraine is that Ukraine has a large Russian minority.
Isn't a member of NATO either.
"AMERICANS OF TODAY ARE FAR INFERIOR, INTELLECTUALLY AS WELL AS MORALLY, TO THE AMERICANS OF 50, 100, AND 200 YEARS AGO. They are conceited about their superiority of knowledge when they are undisputed history ignoramuses."
Bll-Sht, no pun intended .
just look at the proportion of BA/BS degrees in the population today, 50, 100, 200 years ago and you'll notice how wrong you are...
There can be no other explanation for the almost unanimous support Obama receives from black voters than his racial status. It is simply not possible in a free and fair election for a candidate to receive 90+% support from an electorate unless those voters are basing their vote on race above and beyond all other considerations!
Unit472 | 10.26.08 - 4:56 pm | #
Blacks vote 'D' 90% plus of the time no matter the color of the candidate. If blacks turn out in record numbers to vote your argument will be much stronger.
Unit472 writes:
The big and dangerous difference between Poland and Ukraine is that Ukraine has a large Russian minority.
You'd think Russia would be offering Ukraine support - you win more friends with kindness then threats. Even as screwed up as Russia is you'd think they could find a little something... cheaper to buy than conquer.
There can be no other explanation for the almost unanimous support Obama receives from black voters than his racial status.
Here's some other news: White candidates have received nearly unanimous support from white voters. Unbelievable huh?
It might be helpful to correlate your observation to economic demographics, and then notice which of those demographics tend to vote blue and red. Unless your the type that needs to think in black and white, in which case forget this paragraph and look to the above two.
Futures down in Japan; anyone tired of the war yet?
JFHC, last one out of the TSE -- turn out the lights!
Jas,
Please write a child rearing book. Include a must read section. Please also include design plans for your propaganda detector, my personally designed model keeps beeping when I read your rhetoric.
Thanks.
Dopey but not quite a dope
"The stock market is pricing in an Obama victory in the election."
I am wondering if the SEC is incubating a plan to shut down the markets now until some date well after the election. The world can handle pricing Obama in much longer.
There is no answer to getting us out of the hole we've dug. If I'm wrong please enlighten me.
I thought the macro was crap in 1992 so headed off to Japan with my freshly-minted CS degree and missed the greatest technology land rush in history.
For all I know the worst is behind us now.
The key thing is understanding what it is we as individuals need to survive and prosper.
Food. Shelter. Health-care. Transportation. Education. Entertainment.
It's not so fcking complicated and there's plenty of productive capacity to meet our needs & wants.
We just have to hang the rentiers from the lampposts, metaphorically speaking.
Wait wait... there's an important difference between the economic conditions when FDR & WJC entered office and when/if BHO begins his term: the worst of the economic contraction had already occurred. I've been saying throughout this year that the worst of the economic shrinkage begins next Spring due to lags in MEW and CRE and associated layoffs from the beginning of the end of the consumer.
In other words, BHO should hope to be more like Reagan than Roosevelt - but unlike the early 80s, the Fed can hardly push short term rates lower and the economy wasn't unwinding the largest asset mania in history.
I have changed my opinion of Jas.
Troy,
What if our creditors won't allow us to not pay?
$16.5 billion is chump change- if that's all they need, it's a bargain. As long as it keep the Bolsheviks over there and not over here.
Black voters may vote Democrat in 90% levels ( though not always) but I'm speaking of the Democrat primaries where Obama got those same kind of lopsided majorities over Hillary.
You might recall some of Hillary's black supporters had to renounce their support so heavy was pressure on them to vote race. Rep. Lewis of Georgia was one, if I recall, who had pledged his vote to Clinton.
Please wise ones, tell me, if Paulson had not been Tres. would this ever have happened.
Where does these millions now live that lost their homes?
Why should banks be bailed out?
Will Hedge Funds be allowed to eat the tax payer for dinner because of their wealth or their perceived wealth?
There is. Blacks have voted overwhelmingly Democratic in Presidential races since FDR and then (more so) since Kennedy/Johnson.
If Obama were a Republican, he would only get about half or so of the black vote. But that would break forever the Democratic stranglehold on black voters in Presidential elections. As it is, the stranglehold is reinforced probably forever.
Blacks are not the battleground in this election. Hispanics are. The fact that maybe 80+% of Hispanics will vote for Obama is big because 1) Hispanics already outnumber blacks and they will vastly outnumber them in 20 years; and 2) Hispanics were definitely up for grabs, with no party having a stranglehold.
Ironically, Obama has created this juggernaut with Hispanics by doing and saying almost nothing for them. He chose to tap dance around the whole immigration fiasco, which is near to Hispanics' hearts, and it hasn't hurt him.
For those keeping score at home, USD/JPY just opened at 93.17.
alongwaytogo, I am betting Paulson bails out some hedge funds and as soon as he does everyone should march on Washington.
alongwaytogo writes:
Please wise ones, tell me, if Paulson had not been Tres. would this ever have happened.
Define "this".
Where does these millions now live that lost their homes?
To apartments, to cheaper rental homes, to relatives' homes, to friends' homes, to shelters, to the street. Many of the foreclosed properties were owned by speculators, who didn't occupy the houses to begin with.
Why should banks be bailed out?
They shouldn't be. No one should be bailed out, and all should accept the financial consequences of their choices (good and bad).
Will Hedge Funds be allowed to eat the tax payer for dinner because of their wealth or their perceived wealth?
No.
I would like to warn investors here not to get too bearish at this point. We are due for a big bear market rally, even if there were no PPT. And there definitely is a PPT and this next battle is their Gettysburg. They will throw everything they have into one last charge to keep the markets from falling farther.
In between falling gas prices, media hype, 1% fed funds rate, and consumer relief, it wouldn't surprise me if this Xmas shopping season surprises to the upside.
I'm looking for a bear market rally of at least 15-20% from the bottom over the next 8-10 weeks. At that point, you should jump back in with both feet short, because we are nowhere's near the ultimate bottom.
That may be 2 years or more off.
"Global finacial markets are still at risk of collapse and turmoil will continue until at least the end of 2009." Peer Steinbruck, German Finance
Minister.
In reference to: rich | 10.26.08 - 5:26 pm |
How's that any different from what I've said innumerable times over the last 2 weeks? Where's the ridicule?
Ironically, Obama has created this juggernaut with Hispanics by doing and saying almost nothing for them. He chose to tap dance around the whole immigration fiasco, which is near to Hispanics' hearts, and it hasn't hurt him.
rich | 10.26.08 - 5:21 pm | #
I'll wait to see the results before I second that...
Financial tempest spreads to Gulf states - The New York Times
Financial tempest spreads to Gulf states
The global economic crisis extended its reach into the Gulf states Sunday, as Kuwait suspended trading in shares of a major bank and the Saudi authorities announced a plan to help citizens receive credit.
rich,
No capitulation yet, though.
Actually, the markets had their bear market rally of at least 15-20% from the bottom from the lows of Friday, Oct. 10th to the highs of Tuesday, Oct. 14th. The SPX/INDU have yet to make new lows but COMPQ & RUT have - as well as all other major world indexes. That's one reason why I expect panic selling this week - perhaps another 25% lower. I'd love to buy some ultra Proshares in the teens.
The "Hispanic vote" is pretty close to any geographically similar "white vote." What people see is Hispanic activism which is several sigma to the left of the Hispanic vote.
FAIR GAME; They're Shocked, Shocked, About the Mess - NY Times
GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Theyre Shocked, Shocked, About the Mess
'MY hypocrisy meter konked out last week.'
(The title and first line reads like something Tanta would write before her coffee!)
Does the public really hold elected officials responsible anymore?
They will when they experience economic circumstances they've only read about in history classes or have seen in third-world charity commercials.
Anonymouse,
I'm with you -- more downside before the next rally. Should be a good rally when it comes, though.
Does the public really hold elected officials responsible anymore?
There is no mechanism in the present system to hold elected officials accountable. Vote for the other guy? Yeah, good luck with that..
Corey,
Necessity is the mother of invention.
"As long as it keep the Bolsheviks over there and not over here."
Which Bolsheviks are those? The only Bolsheviks are the National Bolsheviks. They have no influence over anything and are not associated with any party or entity of influence.
Re: For those keeping score at home, USD/JPY just opened at 93.17.
This is good for used car sales I think?
Well, I guess we aren't gonna be buying anything from Japan for a while. What did it close at Friday?
According to INO Foreign Exchange - US Dollar/Japanese Yen (FOREX:USDJPY) Price Chart and Quote
USD/JPY opened at 93.75 and is now down to 93.03. Meanwhile Nikkei futures are pointing to a substantially lower open.
UKRAINE NOT WEAK!
Wow, cliff diving.
Our inflection point?
Real-time exchange rates - Exchange rate - Currency rates (real-time) | FOREX INVESTOR
Hit 92.260 a few minutes ago. That's a typical weekly move in a few minutes. Not a good sign.
Thx comrade food.
Gretchen,
You had three years to write about this impending mess but you were too busy repeating wall street's mantra and sales pitch word for word. We shouldn't trust you either.
Krugman was late to the housing bubble reality and was awarded the Nobel. Go fig.
Unit472,
Looking over the primary numbers I see your point, although guesstimating the averages it puts it around 15/85 rather than 10/90 or higher.
McLame had 4,000 supporters at his Denver rally and the press declared Colorado in the Red column.
So the 100,000 whom showed up to see That One must be delusional or something.
Can't wait to say President Palin! She is our best and brightest (she went to 6 different colleges after all) and really knows how to make free market based capitalism work.
IMF has $200 billion and can tap another $53 billion on top of that through some special agreements. US funds 17% of the IMF.
Nothing found for 2008 10 Ukraine-gets-165-billion-from-imf
2.5 minutes to go..... tick tick tick tick tick tick
opening ticks:
/ES: -2
/YM: -24
yawn.
oops . . . . -4/-35 now.
just look at the proportion of BA/BS degrees in the population today, 50, 100, 200 years ago and you'll notice how wrong you are...
Comrade de Chaos | 10.26.08 - 5:06 pm | #
You missed, I'm afraid, the irony of you proving Jas' point by indicating the higher proportion of lower value degrees industrially manufactured today.
Nemo writes:
For those keeping score at home, USD/JPY just opened at 93.17.
Interesting that the Economist's last "Big Mac Index" [7/24/2008] had JPY undervalued by 27 percent, suggesting a "natural" exchange rate of 78.4.
And they had the Iceland Kronur overvalued by 67 percent!
Pavel, glad you're here. Helps keep it sane. Or more nearly sane.
dryfly,
I will be SHOCKED if Virginia goes for O. VA is one of the few states where you can get the "Stars and Bars" (Confederate flag) on your license plate.
badger,
Virginia pols are the one's who pressed the O campaign to invest time and effort in the state. They see it as possible, worth the trouble.
So, Walnuts is speaking in Ohio right now. The lights aren't working and the air conditioning is out.
In the dark and hot. Not in a good way.
Signs of the time. Poor John, he won't quit. They won't let him.
I'll bet he's flashing back to the day when he sat at the bottom of Galveston Bay wishing he had read the frigging user's manual prior to take off.
"Pavel, glad you're here. Helps keep it sane. Or more nearly sane."
Bless you, burnside.
Can't believe I just typed a false possessive. Jas must be right.
The following more or less supports what some have been saying for a while that major banks in the U.S. and the U.K. will end up being entirely nationalized before this crisis is over but its still a striking way of looking at the data. The gist: Government recapitalization and other fund-raising has largely been in service of banks prior subprime losses, while corporate and consumer loans are just starting to hit bank balance sheets. It wont take much to tip banks over into insolvency again.
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Losing control
and the hits keep coming...
I think it is time to find a nice gardening blog for a while.
There is truth in what Jas is saying, he is just not into marketing.
"I will be SHOCKED if Virginia goes for O. VA is one of the few states where you can get the "Stars and Bars" (Confederate flag) on your license plate."
Do remember George Allen lost his senate seat to Jim Webb in 2006.
NC, VA, GA, CO, NV, FL.
What do these states have in common?
They are rapidly growing states with younger residents.
That is what is making these state competetive for Obama.
But you know, it ain't over till the fat lady sings...
Two hour special on CNBC tonite? Poor Maria's or Erin's weekend cut short again. They will be blonde & haggard looking like Andrea Mitchell before we know it.
The % change on futures right now don't reflect differences between Friday's cash close and what cash would open - SPX closed at 876, e-mini now @ 861 would be about -1.75% - fwiw
Asian markets down .
The real question on the racial issue is what happens in 15 - 20 years when whites become a minority. At that time there will be an ethnic minority with much greater wealth than the rest of the country. History is unamimous that this is a dangerous recipe as the new majority looks to reverse what it sees as historical injustices by redistributive policies, and the new minority sees as racist attempts to seize their justly accumulated property.
Asian markets not open yet
US/SP500 futures opened flat to slightly positive
I am intrigued by yen at 92.23... "they" should have prepped some heavy currency intervention for this Monday morn.
Gone Fishin':
I think you have to consider the odds that, among the anointed big nine, there are no solvent banks today. Now. Prior to oncoming hits.
I don't think it really matters too much who gets elected president. Most jobs that pay middle class salaries will be lost over the next 4 years either way.
Jas,
Have you read the book "Starbucks Nation" ? It's a great satire of B&B American Dopes. Also, like you, the author thinks that people have gotten even dopier than they used to be
FFDIC writes:
Two hour special on CNBC tonite? Poor Maria's or Erin's weekend cut short again. They will be blonde & haggard looking like Andrea Mitchell before we know it.
FFDIC | 10.26.08 - 6:17 pm | #
Maybe we can marry them off to a fed chairman a la Andrea - know any available?
There it goes JPY under 92.
holy crap that was fast (USD/JPY 92)
OT: The Financial Times endorses Barack Obama
Obama is the better choice
October 26 2008
FT.com / Comment / Editorial - Obama is the better choice
In responding to the economic emergency, Mr Obama has again impressed not by advancing solutions of his own, but in displaying a calm and methodical disposition, and in seeking the best advice. Mr McCains hasty half-baked interventions were unnerving when they were not beside the point.
The challenges facing the next president will be extraordinary. We hesitate to wish it on anyone, but we hope that Mr Obama gets the job.
Maybe we can marry them off to a fed chairman a la Andrea - know any available?
dryfly | 10.26.08 - 6:23 pm | #
J-Yello - Janet Yellin might be interested when she has had too much Oak Leaf Vineyard's wine at Alan's house.
(sold at WalMart for $2.97)
Sorry Lefty!
Don't expect Lefty to have any specials on Saké anytime soon.
JT writes:
The real question on the racial issue is what happens in 15 - 20 years when whites become a minority. At that time there will be an ethnic minority with much greater wealth than the rest of the country. History is unamimous that this is a dangerous recipe as the new majority looks to reverse what it sees as historical injustices by redistributive policies, and the new minority sees as racist attempts to seize their justly accumulated property.
JT | 10.26.08 - 6:19 pm | #
Won't be an issue unless one of the previous minorities rises to majority status then acts like a 'majority' - most likely the US becomes a mix of 'minorities' with no single one holding a dominant majority position. That might not be bad at all. More checks and balances.
What's the weakest USD/JPY ever? Are we headed for 1 to 1?
Jas: that should be ignorami
km4 writes:
OT: The Financial Times endorses Barack Obama
For Prime Minister?
Ukraine. In the early 90s heard an old man tell his story. He was caught up in a famine of the 20s, when he was a small child. His parents told him: "We can't feed you." They took him to an orphanage/feeding station and left him there. He saw a crowd of children mobbing a woman holding a tray-full of bread. The children were fighting to get close to her, to hold on to her skirts. Life or death, bread or death by starvation. He fought his way into the mob and grabbed a handful of her skirts. He ate and lived.
He grew up in a state home. He said: "The state was my father and my mother."
He was inducted during WWII and found himself in a KGB detachment guarding the camps. He held a P.p.sh. (Peh peh sha), a Russian tommy gun. The guards would say to the prisoners: "One step either to the right or the left and we shoot."
We listened to this story, and all we could feel was pity. What more is there? Poor Russia. Poor Ukraine.
Remembering the old man, feeble and in ill health, in his one-room Moscow flat, makes me feel like weeping.
People are crushed by history, things beyond their control.
Listen, there are human beings there, not objects or avatars in some electronic game.
I met Ted Taylor once, the man who miniaturized US nukes, and who worked at Defense drawing up targets. In the late 80s he traveled to Moscow, and stood exactly in the center of the ground zero he had designated in Red Square. He looked around and saw young couples with babies, children, old people. He burst into tears.
Don't de-humanize people. It's a sin against God and your own soul.
I personally don't give shit who wins right about now - but I would LOVE to see a candidate's race no longer be an issue. I still think in a lot of circles it is. In mostly white rural US especially.
Ah, but let's not let race be the scapegoat here. Okay, I'll admit, I already have, I can't stand Obama. But I love Colin Powell. I'd vote for him. I love Condoleeza. I think she's cool. I'd vote for a woman but not Hillary.
very weak reply dryfly
you're off your game
FWIW Obama winning newspaper endorsements 3 to 1 over McSame
Cheers !
Northern Va will go to Obama, actually I think the state will. Yes, we have the Stars and Bars here but it isn't like the old days. Fairfax County, the center of No. VA. is 1/2 immigrant now.
The Ukraine. I believe that is where the expression "Beyond the Pale" comes from. Part of Poland and what is now Ukraine was the Pale or settlement area. Pavel probably knows far more than I do.
Interesting that in Poland you see the Ukraine flag flown as much as the Polish on the border.
Dry--Maybe your area is the one area in the whole country that he has given up on?
The Ukraine is also the home of at least 1200 mass graves left over from the last time experienced the political turmoil of depression, hunger, and men who had the only answer.
Pavel - Ted Taylor was a decent man. Ed Teller would not care to go see his potential victims.
Not everybody has soul to lose
Somebody just rushed in to save the Dollar and Euro from the yellow menace.
Pavel,
We are what we are. Love for humanity should guide us but the opposite is always true. Genetic or societal? I do not know. I wish we could change.
The child choosing to fight illustrates that everything we do is for survival or reproduction.
Animal instincts dressed up in designer clothes driving a SUV.
God bless the USA.
Do you really want to know? They ARE born-and-bred dopes. The process began some 90 years ago, but really picked up steam since the breeding of the Baby Doomers raised on nothing but propaganda.
Jas - are you still here? I do sincerely want to know. I have my own beliefs for the cause of the sad situation, just wanted to know what yours was.
"beyond the pale" apparently pre-dates the various ethnic/national Pales and originally meant in the literal sense of beyond the palisade (border fence).
lawyerliz writes:
Dry--Maybe your area is the one area in the whole country that he has given up on?
lawyerliz | 10.26.08 - 6:35 pm | #
Maybe - we'll see. We usually get pummeled with callers from the DFL (our local variant of the Democratic Party - stands for Democratic Farmer Labor Party - I kid you not, look it up).
Be a historic night regardless.
16.5 Blilion for Ukraine? Just hand it back to the Ruskies and be done with it. Iceland too for that matter.
The IMF is flushing cash down the crapper. And to what end.
When President Palin is in charge we will get tough with the Ruskies the old fashioned way.
We do not need no frickin' IMF UN getting in the way of our great nation.
stood exactly in the center of the ground zero he had designated in Red Square. He looked around and saw young couples with babies, children, old people. He burst into tears.
Truer words never spoken, about remembering the humanity involved. If love were everyone's guiding aim, we wouldn't have to worry about, well, anything really. Wouldn't that be nice?
Paulson says no??? WTF?
British insurance companies will not be bailed out by the United States, The Times has learnt. It is understood that although Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, was prepared to listen to appeals for cash from British and American insurers, he is adamant that US bailout funds will go only to federally regulated financial institutions that lend money.
This excludes insurers such as Prudential, Friends Provident, Standard Life and Aviva, which have all sufferered steep share price falls this month despite giving reassurances about their capital strength.
Florida, NC, VA Bradley won't be that big (IMHO) first because they have larger minority populations but also I think poll more 'true' - less likely to say one thing & do another.
But in the Midwest where rural means almost all white and racism is less overt but no less present - I think the possibility for a big Bradley Effect is high. Higher than folks realize.
Again I could be wrong - I am waiting for the results myself.
dryfly | 10.26.08 - 4:28 pm |
dryfly--have been lurking here for a couple of years and really appreciate the thoughtfulness of your postings. i'm curious about your read of the intrade results wrt bradley effect? seems to me that "social desirability bias" will be less of an impact in a completely anonymous on-line betting forum, and that people wagering here are primarily concerned with making money. that's the theory, at least, and it seems to have proven pretty accurate in the short term (less than 30 days) and with only 2 primary actors (ie not as effective in primaries). at this point obama's knocking the socks off mccain with +200 electoral votes--even if those states indicating 50-70% democrat (MO, IN, OH, NC and FL) flip to mccain, obama still wins. and intrade would seem to indicate that MN, WI, IA, and IL are solidly dem this go around (wagering in the +90% range).
could be some selection bias at work in that many of your disaffected folks aren't electronics futures participants, but i suspect that'd have been the case in most of the intrade historical data set.
would appreciate your thoughts on electronic futures markets vs traditional polling and bradley effect. apologies if this topic has been covered before.
thanks in advance.
jr
USD-JPY real time anyone?
Where I live in conservative Southern California both national candidates have long since moved on since the checks having cleared and our has been money spent elsewhere. Our part is over. Back to another 4 years of financial hostility.
"Not everybody has soul to lose"
I respectfully disagree. Everyone has a soul. I don't think it's possible to lose one's soul. But perhaps the soul can find itself in a lonely place.
Sorry for being OT.
Troy | 10.26.08 - 6:43 pm | Thanks, and makes sense. Beyond the fire light and order of society. My Mother used to use that expression. It was for a totally uncivil act.
In April 1995, the yen hit a peak of under 80 yen per dollar, temporarily making Japan's economy nearly the size of the US.
[edit]Post-bubble years
The yen declined during the Japanese asset price bubble and continued to do so afterwards, reaching a low of ¥134 to US$1 in February 2002. The Bank of Japan's policy of zero interest rates has discouraged yen investments, with the carry trade of investors borrowing yen and investing in better-paying currencies (thus further pushing down the yen) estimated to be as large as $1 trillion.[4] In February 2007, The Economist estimated that the yen is 15% undervalued against the dollar and as much as 40% undervalued against the euro.[
monta's ankle writes:
"USD-JPY real time anyone?"
93.7
Currencies: Currencies - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
hmm, big move - thanks sm
is something afoot?