It is not an amount that can ever be paid back. I don't see anyway that this can end well. When the french demanded gold for their IOU's, Nixon closed the gold window. What trick do we have up our sleeves this time?
CR -- "The total National Debt is now $7,932,709,661,723.50."
Your debt figure, of course, is for 30 September 2005.
The total National Debt as of 3 October 2005 was $7,970,524,003,272.50
A jump of $37,815,341,549.00 in 3 days.
Over $37 billion.
Yes, that doesn't hold any particular value for measuring the overall growth in FY 2006, but I did think that it was an interesting way to kick off the new fiscal year.
Wow, the General Fund deficit did fall, a little bit. It is still huge. But cheers, the conservatives have a plan to reduce it by $5 billion per year. And yes, I chuckling as I write this!
1932-2006 - The Second 74 Year SubCycle of the US
Second Grand Fractal? A Replay of 1858-1932?
As the United States enters the possible turbulent time frame
of its second major decay fractal since 1858, its government,
corporations, and people are not in good fiscal shape. The first major
decay cycle ended in 1932 for a total of 74 years. By recent fractal
analysis the second cycle may likewise end in an additional 74 years
or in 2006. A nearly unimaginable asset and economic deflationary
collapse is possible.
The imbalances in the world's leading GDP economy are profound. Since
1982 America's GDP has been stimulated by a general trend of falling
long term interest rates -set at the high bar by Mr. Volcker. Before
1982, the US GDP was stimulated by post World War II European
rebuilding, real smoke stack and factory mass production, interstate
highway building, social spending, Vietnam war spending, and cold war
military spending. In the last few years massive tax rebates and ultra
low interest rates combined with imprudent and unregulated lending
practices have created historical personal debenture spending
resulting in housing overvaluation and secondary debt accumulation
from second mortgages. Unlike the 150 years prior to 1948 where nearly
half the years were contracting GDP's, the post 1947-48 years have had
all positive GDP growth - a historical anomaly. The breaking branch
today is so much higher than the one perched on in 1929.
The severity of America's occult economic illness may be judged by the
trends in total federal revenues since 1966. Total tax revenues have
historically doubled every 7-10 years. From the CBO's historical
tables, there was doubling in revenues in the following years from
1966: 1974,1980,1990, and 2000. Since 2000, total revenues have
actually decreased with a loss of several trillion dollars of
traditional revenue growth.
Without the borrowed social security funds from the empty 'lock box',
governmental borrowing would tax even the abilities of the 'world glut
of foreign dollar saving recipients.' Social security tax revenue
nearly matches personal income tax revenue and has come to represent
merely an additional tax that offsets the summation of all federal
expenses. There is no money in the social security trust fund;
interest earned in the trust fund is an accounting mirage; and the
fallacy of depicting future solvency based on assets and interest
earned in that trust fund is likewise, purely an illusion. Solvency
and future payments to a growing number of retirees will be based on a
dwindling ratio of predominately US service-type workers with their
lower wages and increased personal income taxes to maintain needed
discretionary spending. For linear thinkers a look at the US CBO
report for the out years is instructive. Where is the projected growth
in GDP coming from? The maximum economic stimulation has been spent.
Likewise a
I think the important number is the ratio of the National Debt to the GDP. If they both grow at the same percentage rate, on average, then our nation would have no difficulty making the interest payments to the debt. The problem is that the National Debt grew by 7.5 percent last year, and will likely grow even faster in future years. Our GDP has historically grown at a much lower rate. If the ratio of Debt/GDP increases continuously, then eventually our nation can not make the debt payments.
And the debt to gdp ratio should fall once demand slows in the us. As housing cools we should see a bit of a reversal in the c/a deficit hopefully. (I'm assuming there is a correlation between the c/a and fiscal deficits).
the management of the nation's finances is nothing but a macrocosm of the typical american family of today. outflows are exceeding inflows, and to maintain course money is borrowed, eventually to the point where the principal can no longer be paid yet the interest can be serviced. unless income (GDP) increases dramatically over continued borrowing and interest payments, there is no way out of the rabbit hole. the difference with the US government is at present they don't have a set maximum limit on borrowing. that is until our creditors tighten enough.
for those who state debt is a small % of our overall production, there's nothing to guarantee that future output will remain healthy enough to support the growing debt structure.
Hidden behind the National Debt numbers are the short term issuances of Treasury debt.
Just wait until they roll over and the yield obligations rise once there is a decline in purchasing by foreign parties. Costs will jump, as will the National Debt.
Movie Guy didn't we look up the average maturity of US sovereign debt and it is scarily short... that most of new & rolled over US debt issuance is 5 years or less... so the median maturity is something like 3-5 years?
I can't remember but thought some one posted on that here a few months back.
Anyway - one helluva a lot of debt will be rolling over on us even before shrub heads back to Texas for good.
And if rates are going up at all - look for this alone to blow a hole in the plans to cut the deficit in half w/in five years.
Any explanation for the debt decrease from last year --what happened this fiscal year to drive the debt back to 2003 levels? I would have thought energy costs would have made it worse. I would have thought continuing problems in Iraq and Afghanistan would have made it worse. I would have thought some of the hurricane damage would have made it onto the books.
Does this mean we American consumers bought less exports?
Yeah ok but still, did you feel that the government spent $2000 less on you for all those goods and services you enjoyed? I did visit the site but could not find the info I wanted.
Was it maybe that we had a very healthy year and didn't need to bother with those pesky flu vaccines?
Was it that foreigners started acting like cheapscapes and so we just put up with lousier roads and levees and armor for the Hum Vees and...?
Calmo, this is the fiscal deficit (basically the General Fund deficit as opposed the Unified Fund Deficit that Bush discusses). The reasons for the small improvements are mostly some business taxes and the housing bubble (capital gains taxes).
It will most likely start getting worse again next year. As Movie Guy pointed out, the deficit is off to a poor start for fiscal '06.
"After falling for two years, the share of income going to the richest slice of Americans - the top tenth of 1 percent - grew significantly in 2003 while the share going to 99 percent of Americans fell, tax data released yesterday showed.
"At the same time, the effective income tax rates paid by the top tenth of 1 percent fell sharply, declining at more than 10 times the rate reduction for middle-class taxpayers, the new report, by the Internal Revenue Service, showed."
Thanks CR. Looks like I'm overdosed on housing --that's what I didn't catch: improvements in capital gains from the residential housing market. The 15% increase (last month anyhow) in housing prices help brighten the national debt picture. Should the trend reverse, as some think, this revenue source will evaporate putting the General Fund back on its former course.
Nice caption Kett82. Not enough is made of the gradient, the difference between 'haves' and 'have nots'.
the continued screwing of everyone but the ultra-wealthy in a place like America shows that no matter the form of government, you can't defeat basic human greed.
dryfly -- "Movie Guy didn't we look up the average maturity of US sovereign debt and it is scarily short... that most of new & rolled over US debt issuance is 5 years or less... so the median maturity is something like 3-5 years?"
I looked for that data Thursday evening. Found plenty of information, but not the info we looked at previously.
Remember the Emo Philips joke about the national debt?
One day the foreign lenders call for repayment of the US national debt.
The US replies, "Sorry. We don't have it. We spent it all on nuclear missiles."
The lenders say, "On second thought we don't need the money. You can have an extension."
A more pithy way to put it, is that the US debt is backed by plutonium.
As of 2005q2:
-average maturity outstanding debt: 54.73 months
-1 year moving average of average maturity of issuance: 36.77
-59.7% outstanding debt maturing within 36 months.
I can't tell from the treasury page: are the numbers in the graph adjusted for inflation? If not, should the 1998 & 1999 numbers be something like 15-20% lower?
Democrats are 'doomed' until they realize the full implications.
Only one maybe two people posting here understand that Tsy Bonds are now the reserves for our financial system. Reserves are the current metric that control bank lending and can be created out of 'thin air'.
Get rid of Tsy Secs (gov debt) and we no longer have a fiat money system.
Hi, Thank you for having this info on the web. I enjoyed your post. If you may have any interest in pay day loansCredit Repair
then I know where you may get your solution. For your comfort, I have enclosed the link, so if needed you can visit the site. Thanks again for your lovely blog
One of the questions that are now most keenly agitating the minds of the investing public and of financiers who cater for its wants, and also of employers and organisers of industry who are trying to see their way into after-the-war conditions, is that of the supply of capital. Don't waste the capital of your mind. It is now easier than ever to study for an online college degree. You can get more information at the online college degree course website
And let's not forget the fifty cents! a number that large frightens me.
It is not an amount that can ever be paid back. I don't see anyway that this can end well. When the french demanded gold for their IOU's, Nixon closed the gold window. What trick do we have up our sleeves this time?
jdoc, the debt is all denominated in a currency that can be printed.
Does anyone know what it costs to currently service the debt in terms of the percentage of the total tax take?
CR -- "The total National Debt is now $7,932,709,661,723.50."
Your debt figure, of course, is for 30 September 2005.
The total National Debt as of 3 October 2005 was $7,970,524,003,272.50
A jump of $37,815,341,549.00 in 3 days.
Over $37 billion.
Yes, that doesn't hold any particular value for measuring the overall growth in FY 2006, but I did think that it was an interesting way to kick off the new fiscal year.
Wow, the General Fund deficit did fall, a little bit. It is still huge. But cheers, the conservatives have a plan to reduce it by $5 billion per year. And yes, I chuckling as I write this!
MG, yes, I should have dated the debt as end of fiscal year '05 (9/30/2005). Oh Yeah, that is a nice start to '06! (please excuse the sarcasm)
Best Regards.
You people need to get with the plan, deficits don't matter - Dick
1932-2006 - The Second 74 Year SubCycle of the US
Second Grand Fractal? A Replay of 1858-1932?
As the United States enters the possible turbulent time frame
of its second major decay fractal since 1858, its government,
corporations, and people are not in good fiscal shape. The first major
decay cycle ended in 1932 for a total of 74 years. By recent fractal
analysis the second cycle may likewise end in an additional 74 years
or in 2006. A nearly unimaginable asset and economic deflationary
collapse is possible.
The imbalances in the world's leading GDP economy are profound. Since
1982 America's GDP has been stimulated by a general trend of falling
long term interest rates -set at the high bar by Mr. Volcker. Before
1982, the US GDP was stimulated by post World War II European
rebuilding, real smoke stack and factory mass production, interstate
highway building, social spending, Vietnam war spending, and cold war
military spending. In the last few years massive tax rebates and ultra
low interest rates combined with imprudent and unregulated lending
practices have created historical personal debenture spending
resulting in housing overvaluation and secondary debt accumulation
from second mortgages. Unlike the 150 years prior to 1948 where nearly
half the years were contracting GDP's, the post 1947-48 years have had
all positive GDP growth - a historical anomaly. The breaking branch
today is so much higher than the one perched on in 1929.
The severity of America's occult economic illness may be judged by the
trends in total federal revenues since 1966. Total tax revenues have
historically doubled every 7-10 years. From the CBO's historical
tables, there was doubling in revenues in the following years from
1966: 1974,1980,1990, and 2000. Since 2000, total revenues have
actually decreased with a loss of several trillion dollars of
traditional revenue growth.
Without the borrowed social security funds from the empty 'lock box',
governmental borrowing would tax even the abilities of the 'world glut
of foreign dollar saving recipients.' Social security tax revenue
nearly matches personal income tax revenue and has come to represent
merely an additional tax that offsets the summation of all federal
expenses. There is no money in the social security trust fund;
interest earned in the trust fund is an accounting mirage; and the
fallacy of depicting future solvency based on assets and interest
earned in that trust fund is likewise, purely an illusion. Solvency
and future payments to a growing number of retirees will be based on a
dwindling ratio of predominately US service-type workers with their
lower wages and increased personal income taxes to maintain needed
discretionary spending. For linear thinkers a look at the US CBO
report for the out years is instructive. Where is the projected growth
in GDP coming from? The maximum economic stimulation has been spent.
Likewise a
I think the important number is the ratio of the National Debt to the GDP. If they both grow at the same percentage rate, on average, then our nation would have no difficulty making the interest payments to the debt. The problem is that the National Debt grew by 7.5 percent last year, and will likely grow even faster in future years. Our GDP has historically grown at a much lower rate. If the ratio of Debt/GDP increases continuously, then eventually our nation can not make the debt payments.
And the debt to gdp ratio should fall once demand slows in the us. As housing cools we should see a bit of a reversal in the c/a deficit hopefully. (I'm assuming there is a correlation between the c/a and fiscal deficits).
the management of the nation's finances is nothing but a macrocosm of the typical american family of today. outflows are exceeding inflows, and to maintain course money is borrowed, eventually to the point where the principal can no longer be paid yet the interest can be serviced. unless income (GDP) increases dramatically over continued borrowing and interest payments, there is no way out of the rabbit hole. the difference with the US government is at present they don't have a set maximum limit on borrowing. that is until our creditors tighten enough.
for those who state debt is a small % of our overall production, there's nothing to guarantee that future output will remain healthy enough to support the growing debt structure.
Hidden behind the National Debt numbers are the short term issuances of Treasury debt.
Just wait until they roll over and the yield obligations rise once there is a decline in purchasing by foreign parties. Costs will jump, as will the National Debt.
Movie Guy didn't we look up the average maturity of US sovereign debt and it is scarily short... that most of new & rolled over US debt issuance is 5 years or less... so the median maturity is something like 3-5 years?
I can't remember but thought some one posted on that here a few months back.
Anyway - one helluva a lot of debt will be rolling over on us even before shrub heads back to Texas for good.
And if rates are going up at all - look for this alone to blow a hole in the plans to cut the deficit in half w/in five years.
Austerity plan anyone?
Any explanation for the debt decrease from last year --what happened this fiscal year to drive the debt back to 2003 levels? I would have thought energy costs would have made it worse. I would have thought continuing problems in Iraq and Afghanistan would have made it worse. I would have thought some of the hurricane damage would have made it onto the books.
Does this mean we American consumers bought less exports?
it's actually not that much money. a little more than 2K per person.
Yeah ok but still, did you feel that the government spent $2000 less on you for all those goods and services you enjoyed? I did visit the site but could not find the info I wanted.
Was it maybe that we had a very healthy year and didn't need to bother with those pesky flu vaccines?
Was it that foreigners started acting like cheapscapes and so we just put up with lousier roads and levees and armor for the Hum Vees and...?
Calmo, this is the fiscal deficit (basically the General Fund deficit as opposed the Unified Fund Deficit that Bush discusses). The reasons for the small improvements are mostly some business taxes and the housing bubble (capital gains taxes).
It will most likely start getting worse again next year. As Movie Guy pointed out, the deficit is off to a poor start for fiscal '06.
Best Regards.
And yet we have this:
"After falling for two years, the share of income going to the richest slice of Americans - the top tenth of 1 percent - grew significantly in 2003 while the share going to 99 percent of Americans fell, tax data released yesterday showed.
"At the same time, the effective income tax rates paid by the top tenth of 1 percent fell sharply, declining at more than 10 times the rate reduction for middle-class taxpayers, the new report, by the Internal Revenue Service, showed."
Oct. 5 NY Times: At the Very Top, a Surge in Income in '03 - NY Times
Something ain't right.
Thanks CR. Looks like I'm overdosed on housing --that's what I didn't catch: improvements in capital gains from the residential housing market. The 15% increase (last month anyhow) in housing prices help brighten the national debt picture. Should the trend reverse, as some think, this revenue source will evaporate putting the General Fund back on its former course.
Nice caption Kett82. Not enough is made of the gradient, the difference between 'haves' and 'have nots'.
the continued screwing of everyone but the ultra-wealthy in a place like America shows that no matter the form of government, you can't defeat basic human greed.
dryfly -- "Movie Guy didn't we look up the average maturity of US sovereign debt and it is scarily short... that most of new & rolled over US debt issuance is 5 years or less... so the median maturity is something like 3-5 years?"
I looked for that data Thursday evening. Found plenty of information, but not the info we looked at previously.
Hope someone can find it.
MG
Remember the Emo Philips joke about the national debt?
One day the foreign lenders call for repayment of the US national debt.
The US replies, "Sorry. We don't have it. We spent it all on nuclear missiles."
The lenders say, "On second thought we don't need the money. You can have an extension."
A more pithy way to put it, is that the US debt is backed by plutonium.
Dryfly and Movie Guy,
As of 2005q2:
-average maturity outstanding debt: 54.73 months
-1 year moving average of average maturity of issuance: 36.77
-59.7% outstanding debt maturing within 36 months.
http://www.treas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/qrc/2005/2005-q3-chart-data.pdf
I can't tell from the treasury page: are the numbers in the graph adjusted for inflation? If not, should the 1998 & 1999 numbers be something like 15-20% lower?
Attention! We are no longer on the Gold Standard.
Democrats are 'doomed' until they realize the full implications.
Only one maybe two people posting here understand that Tsy Bonds are now the reserves for our financial system. Reserves are the current metric that control bank lending and can be created out of 'thin air'.
Get rid of Tsy Secs (gov debt) and we no longer have a fiat money system.
read http://www.mosler.org
Taxwisdom.org - tax wisdom Resources and Information.This website is for sale!
Thanks, JS.
Really appreciate it.
If a person keeps scrolling down that page, the distribution of debt (terms) is also available. And then comes the info that gives me pause:
Debt maturing in
12 months: 36.5%
24 months: 52.1%
36 months: 59.7%
These numbers always give me an uneasy feeling.
Hi, Thank you for having this info on the web. I enjoyed your post. If you may have any interest in
pay day loans Credit Repair
then I know where you may get your solution. For your comfort, I have enclosed the link, so if needed you can visit the site. Thanks again for your lovely blog
One of the questions that are now most keenly agitating the minds of the investing public and of financiers who cater for its wants, and also of employers and organisers of industry who are trying to see their way into after-the-war conditions, is that of the supply of capital. Don't waste the capital of your mind. It is now easier than ever to study for an online college degree. You can get more information at the online college degree course website