Global Cliff Diving Continues

welcome to the Great Recession. Naked Capitalism had an interesting article on how round two is just getting underway (currency crisis).

I call up for the day.

You heard it hear first.

I think Verizon's surprisingly stable quarter put some lead into S&P's pencil. The mobile sub adds were hot.

What? Round 2? I thought we were playing baseball, not boxing

safe_as_apartments --

S&P futures down only 10 now...

I declare it, Beige Monday! Not as Black and lugubrious, but nonetheless, Beige, very very Beige.

Nine so fine.

Dove grey Monday?

kaerlian,

I'm saving Dove grey for Tuesday, Puce for Wednesday, Fuchsia for Thursday, and Salmon for Friday.

Nikkei futures closed below 7K @ 6990. I can haz yen?

Hey look. We'll be stuck on one color, just like we seem to be stuck on the same color when it comes to national security, so pick a color you like.

They be jammi

Mondays market is hard to face,

Tuesdays market is full of disgrace,

Wednesdays market is full of woe,

Thursdays market has no gains to show,

Fridays market is tanking not giving,

Saturdays market steals much of your living,

And the market that is open on the Sabbath day

Is volatile and wild, and full of dismay.

Could I go back into ancient history and ask about Oct 24 (friday) near the close? On CNBC, I thought I saw the Dow down about 200 about 5 minutes before the close, and wandered away. The actual close was 312, but I did not see any comments on what seems to me a sudden big drop.

What? Round 2? I thought we were playing baseball, not boxing

I don't do well with sports analogies, so let me do another kind. A person dying of cancer decides to skydive. He targets a trampoline from which he'd bounce right back up. Instead, he hits the sea, breaking dozens of bones in the process, then slowly sinks to the bottom.

sterlingerl,

Nice pull.

Samurais are yen-denominated bonds sold in Japan by foreign issuers...and yes, I have to say it, they have committed Sepaku.

green baby green!!!

(still got a few point to go to catch up to the cash close)

@ Billy re the big ass drop on Friday:

My guess is funds selling in order to have cash on hand to meet unitholder redemptions.

Good day to be in Basel and Zurich doing due diligence on a safe bank.

It is going to be a fun week.

TREACHERY BY OMISSION
The conpersons don’t show you this.
recent DJIA to ca. "Real Dow"

So, Ed.

Thanks for the interesting link.

Am I safe in taking away that you're pushing TIPS as a viable alternative?

Have kids college funds there but have taken a loss in last several weeks as TIPS have lost approx 5%; was going to move them out today to MM fund that is supported through the largesse of our magnanimous Treasury Department.

My problem is that I don't see this as an inflationary debate anymore, unless you foresee deflation as temporary until overtaken by severe inflation.

Thanks

homedad43...deflation now but every attempt will be made to print the hell out of this later. Will tthe new regime be able to carry it off? The jury is still out.

Tips are only as good as the last I just changed the rules of the game. Remember, he that makes the rules...wins the game.

In HK the shocker is HSBC Holdings down to 75. This is the very definition of bellweather, and now approaches its SARS era lows of five years ago. The core holding of so many HK people and funds-- down 15% in a day, and shaking a lot of folks up.

What's weird is that a substantial part of the drop occurred just before mkt close...

This must be a record dive. Who knew the cliff was so high? Anyone see the water yet?

What? Round 2? I thought we were playing baseball, not boxing

I think the best sports analogy would be football. I believe the 2nd quarter has just started. When this ends, then we've got halftime and the fireside chats.

Hbc on the NYSE is only down 6%. Do these tickers correspond to the same companies? And do they eventually equalize?
Thanks

The headlines are saying that the nikkei is at a 26 year low. So does that mean if you put money in the Japanese stock market 26 years ago, on average you'd have made no gains?

Yogi: Hbc on the NYSE is only down 6%. Do these tickers correspond to the same companies? And do they eventually equalize?"

Only their treasurers know for sure!

Prolly somebody more pro than me can give you a better answer. I don't follow (or own) the stock) in either place.

The headlines are saying that the nikkei is at a 26 year low. So does that mean if you put money in the Japanese stock market 26 years ago, on average you'd have made no gains?

Of course not....

There is always the steady dividend stream from Japanese companies (joke)

Has Ipodius been around?

These US Home Sales numbers higher.. this must be some mistake right? Foreclosure re-sales related? Or is this the 1st positive sign?

These numbers are not reflecting reality anymore: reality is Daimler is halting production; BMW and Bosch are, too; why VW is up only Porsche knows; the Postbank (i.e. Deutsche Post which was nationalized, then privatized, now nationalizing ... stay tuned) in Germany needs gov funds because they are exposed to Lehman's failure (but, as of today, they do not want to take the money); and Hans-Werner Sinn of Ifo calls the "persecution of managers" (of the financial institutes) similar to that of persecution of Jews, following the crash of the roaring 20s.

It's 12 o'clock somewhere, and I'm having a drink...

Hans-Werner Sinn is an idiot

homedad43,

Glad for your interest. I use the TIPS to mark the recent Real Dow. And at the same time:

intending to show the available choices of a certainty real future from ‘selling the Dow and buying TIPS’.

All my stuff
Not found
is aiming to show the past soundly -- which often infers a candidate future, but I stay away from prediction, as I view the past Real Dow and Real Homes as clearly serial herd behaviors.

It is said that soverigns do not default, they just do inflation. Some longtime Dow fellow has been saying the USA faces ‘inflate or die’. I fear inflation.

Wow. Just ... wow. This is the law as of 1999, before the 2000 federal change that made this stuff legal and forbade the states from re-enacting their laws forbidding gambling on the markets. It had a long history.

And it all went away, and now almost 8 years later, the same shit happened as happened in previous centuries repeatedly.

Who could have known?

Duke Law Journal: Lynn A. Stout, Why The Law Hates Speculators: Regulation And Private Ordering In The Market For OTC Derivatives, 48 Duke L. J. 701 (1999)

Duke Law Journal: Lynn A. Stout, Why The Law Hates Speculators: Regulation And Private Ordering In The Market For OTC Derivatives, 48 Duke L. J. 701 (1999)

----excerpt follows-------

B. Codifying the Common Law: Antibucketshop Statutes and the Commodity Exchange Act

Modern legislation has largely replicated, and in important ways strengthened, the common law rule against difference contracts. Codification of the rule first began in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, when a large number of state legislatures passed "antibucketshop" laws declaring contracts for the sale of goods illegal unless settled by delivery.77 Like the common law, many of these statutes contained exclusions for organized futures trading78 and for indemnity agreements where one of the parties could prove a hedging purpose.79 Unlike the common law, many went beyond merely declaring difference contracts to be unenforceable by providing for criminal sanctions.80

Antibucketshop laws remain on the books in many states.81 Their influence has waned, however, as the federal government has extended its own authority in the area.82 Congress first entered the field in 1921 with the Future Trading Act, reenacted in 1936 as the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA).83 The original CEA applied only to fu- [*pg 722] tures and options trading in cotton, grain, and a limited group of other agricultural commodities.84 In 1974, however, Congress significantly expanded the federal sphere of influence by extending the CEA to "all other goods and articles," including all "services, rights, and interests,"85 and creating a five-member Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged with enforcing the statute.86 As a result, federal regulators now play a leading role in curbing speculative trading.

To understand this point, it is essential to recognize that one of Congress's primary goals in enacting the CEA was to curb speculation in those goods and services that fall within the CEA's purview. As originally enacted, section 5 of the CEA provided that "[e]xcessive speculation in any commodity under contracts of sale . . . for future delivery . . . is an undue and unnecessary burden on interstate commerce . . . ."87 Thus the centerpiece of the CEA is an "exchange trading requirement" that reincarnates, in a modified statutory form, the common law rule requiring contracts of sale for future delivery to be settled by actual delivery.

The CEA resembles the common law because it prohibits all contracts of sale for future delivery that are not made on, and subject to the rules of, an organized exchange.88 This prohibition does not apply, however, to contracts that are intended to be settled by delivering the underlying good or service.89 The net result is that trading in futures and options that are not intended to be settled by delivery is [*pg 723] legally permissible only within the safe harbor of a regulated exchange. Off-exchange "difference contracts" are not just unenforceable, but illegal under federal law.90

The CEA's exchange trading requirement -- sometimes dubbed a "ban on off-exchange futures" -- thus plays a critical role in curbing speculative activity in the United States economy. While an extensive list of contracts are approved for trading on the designated futures exchanges, for each commodity for which a contract is listed there are tens of thousands of goods and services not listed.91 Would-be speculators hoping to take a position in the markets for miniskirts, mittens, Monets, mandarin oranges, management consultants, or Montana real estate will find that neither these nor most other goods and services have contracts listed for trading on a designated exchange. To speculate in these markets one must resign oneself to spot trading, with all its expense and inconvenience.

Indeed, the CEA in many respects keeps speculators on an even shorter leash than the common law did. Like many antibucketshop statutes, the CEA goes beyond the common law rule of civil unenforceability to provide for criminal penalties for off-exchange trading in contracts not settled by delivery.92 (The significance of this sanction is discussed further in Section IV.E.) Equally important, the CEA empowers the CFTC to act as a gatekeeper to the exchanges and to decide which contracts will be accepted for trading. Any exchange seeking to offer a new type of future or option for trading accordingly must first demonstrate to the CFTC that the contract is not "contrary to the public interest";93 the CFTC has interpreted this dictate to require a showing that the contract serves some economic purpose beyond mere speculation.94 Within the sanctuary of the exchanges, the CFTC imposes other restrictions to deter speculative transactions. For example, the CFTC can seek to discourage speculative trading by imposing "position limits" that restrict the size of the position an in- [*pg 724] dividual trader can take in any particular contract, as well as "trading limits" that restrict the size of particular transactions.95

The net result is that federal legislation largely replicates, and in many respects strengthens, the common law's restrictions on speculation through difference agreements. Although modern observers often overlook the CEA's antispeculation function, federal commodities law plays a fundamental role in channeling our nation's entrepreneurial energy away from speculative trading. Part IV returns to consider in greater detail the implications of this role for the CFTC's claim of jurisdiction over the market for financial derivatives.

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