Michael Hudson:
"Heres why it is impossible to go back to the past, as if this were some kind of normal condition that can be recovered. When Alan Greenspan flooded the mortgage market with credit, homeowners borrowed against (cashed out on) the rise in housing prices as if their homes were a piggy bank. The difference, of course, is that when one draws down a bank account there is less money in it, but no debt is involved to absorb future income in repayment schedules. Equity loans have left a debt residue, which now has turned into negative equity with loans still needing to be repaid. This will leave less for consumption. So U.S. consumer spending will fall because of (1) no more easy mortgage or credit-card credit, (2) debt deflation as consumers repay past borrowing, crowding out other forms of spending, and (3) downsizing and job losses lead to falling wage income.
Lower consumer spending means less sales by U.S. and foreign manufacturers especially those in countries whose currency is rising against the dollar (e.g., Japan). Lower sales mean lower earnings, which mean lower stock prices. And in the stock market itself, price/earnings ratios are falling as the credit that fueled stock-market speculation by hedge funds and other arbitrageurs is cut back. So the combination of falling price/earnings ratios and falling earnings mean less in the denominator (earnings) to be multiplied into prices (earnings capitalized at the going interest rate).
Declining stock market prices are reducing the coverage of corporate pension funds (as well as personal retirement accounts), requiring higher set-asides to fully fund these accounts. In the face of tightening bank credit, this will cut back new corporate spending on plant and equipment, further slowing the economy.
As foreign exporters are rudely awakened the dream of an American demand, when will the point come at which Europe and Asia seek to build up their own domestic consumer markets as an alternative? The first problem is to overcome the ideological bias in which central bankers are indoctrinated, in a world where politicians have relinquished economic policy to bankers trained in Chicago School financial warfare against labor and even against industry. It probably is too much to hope that todays European central bankers and kindred economic managers will drop their neoliberal anti-labor ideology and see that without a thriving domestic market, their own industrial firms will languish. The solution must come from a revived political sector representing the interests of labor, and even of industry itself as it sees the need to revive domestic markets."
Welcome to the study of asset limbonomics -- "how low can it go?"
My guess -- it's still a couple of years before the limbo dancer loses balance and smacks his bottom on the floor. At least in my California bubble area.
Now, don't go analyzing the data. Just go along with the feel-good headline: Housing sales up in September!! And then go out and buy a refrigerator or three.
I note that the Sept.-to-year-end sales increased over the 90s. That may be proportional to the overall growth, but those last 3 months will need to take about a 1/3 hit over last year to match 1991. That would be rough.
It would be interesting to plot the owner occupied ratio here. Wouldn't that filter out the investment property boom of the last 8 years? I imagine that would reflect the real changes in the national homeownership rate.
eRobin writes:
Now, don't go analyzing the data. Just go along with the feel-good headline: Housing sales up in September!! And then go out and buy a refrigerator or three.
aleister,
I generally agree with the contents of that quote you posted. Asian countries have been exploiting their domestic sectors to subsidize export industries to gain economic advantage vs primarily the US. However, Japanese monetary policy has been as loose as Greenspan's was for a long time. Obviously the whole point of the carry trade was that the vast amount of yen being pushed out by the BoJ had nowhere to go domestically and thus was farmed out to blow up the long term credit bubble that is now imploding.
Public pension funds in US states are facing their worst year of losses in history, exacerbating existing funding shortfalls and putting pressure on state governments to shore them up.
In the nine months to the end of September, the average state pension fund lost 14.8 per cent, according to Northern Trust, a fund company. The loss has grown since, as financial markets slumped further in October. The previous highest loss for state funds was 7.9 per cent for the full year in 2002. ...
And remember (I do, because I bought a house in 1982), that the interest rates in 1980-82 were outrageous. When I bought a house in the Spring of 1982, my interest rate was 16.7%.
So doing worse than that, with low interest rates, is horrendous.
fake seb's world writes:
Buffet's shopping for value
And getting his azz handed to him in precisely sliced sheets of fatty goodness.
BRK-A $147k to $112k in 5 weeks.
Buffet's problem is in believing in a knowable market. We've all long since abandonded "rational market" but he is olde skool clinging to hiz sekret weapon of a fantasy mathematical model of "value." IMO it fundamentally failed on several levels but mostly on demographics. We are turning Japanese and immigration of all sorts isn't enough to sustain his pump model.
Just wait until mortgage rates get back to that level. Then it will be interesting.
Mr. T. | 10.27.08 - 2:22 pm | # "
Well if it did, it would really be interesting. Because it's my recollection that, at least in some states, assumable loans were still common in the early '80s. Which cushioned the blow of high interest rates for some. No assumables this time around.
Im still hearing radio advertisements on my daily commute about 0% down and whatnot for the purchase of new cars. Are people still purchasing cars like they were in the heady days of the bubble and are banks still offering schmucks low interest loans or are these simply redundant advertisements, like the WaMu and (more appropriately) Enzyte commercials that kept airing despite either bankruptcy or federal prison for fraud? I'm also hearing occasional adverts for residential community real estate. Maybe Florida is full of crazies afterall.
You know what I just realized, people keep saying "small towns" are representative of America but its not the least bit true. Florida is the Cassandra of American society. A quasi-legal Hispanic lumpenprolitariet, a large ratio of retirees to workers (especially productive ones), and really pronounced income disparities.
Give everyone who buys an American home; a 30 year contract to the path of citizenship. As long as you service the mortgage you bought, you have a special residence-visa, at the end of payoff, you'll be a sparking citizen.
For those who buy a home outright, they must still own a home for 5 years before becoming a citizen.
You'll be surprised how many homes will outright vanish from the market and our inventory problem will instantly be solved.
Additional conditions can be added to tweak this; to prevent a new bubble from forming; like only in markets with more than 7+ months inventory; etc.
If you look at the numbers from household surveys, you will see that the average American household is not deeply in debt. Most do not carry much of a balance on their credit card. Most homeowners do not have a home equity loan.
Someday someone will analyze the current financial crisis and discover that we have all been had by a relatively small bunch of crooks and gamblers. Right now those crooks and gamblers are hoping we keep pointing the finger of blame at one another while they ride off into the sunset.
Well if it did, it would really be interesting. Because it's my recollection that, at least in some states, assumable loans were still common in the early '80s. Which cushioned the blow of high interest rates for some. No assumables this time around.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 10.27.08 - 2:26 pm
Since t-bills are roughly equivalent to fannie/freddie bonds, late 70's/early 80's rates hit when China either a)diversifies out of u.s. gov securities, or b)when china has no more money to buy and securities, u.s. or otherwise
When that happens, we will all be in a world of hurt. Interest on the debt would probably consume 75% of total budget.
I get email for my rewards programs. Car rental offers are down to $10 a day midsize. La Quinta is offering $49 a night if you book 14 days in advance.
6 months ago a good deal for a rental car was $24.99 and the lowest La Quinta offering was $89 a night.
What should American public schools be teaching and why aren't they teaching it? We'll talk this hour with Tony Wagner, co-director of the Change Leadership Group at Harvard's Graduate School of Education. His new book is "The Global Achievement Gap: Why Even Our Best Schools Don't Teach the New Survival Skills Our Children Need - and What We Can Do about It" (Basic Books, 2008).
Publications/Recordings
"The Global Achievement Gap: Why Even Our Best Schools Don't Teach the New Survival Skills Our Children Need - and What We Can Do about It" (Basic Books, 2008)
my notes on the interview-and my own comments:
obviously the only important skills are:
critical thinking, problem solving, adaptability-agility, how to ask the right questions (identify what you do not know that you should know), figure out which are the important questions which are not
how to test for these skills:
surely not by multiple choice test !!!
more like problem solving questions with open books (ie you can bring the entire library , your laptop etc... to the test) if you have not assimilated the field of study and do not understand the material in depth there is not way you can answer the questions in the required time, even with all the books in the world in
front of you. (these are the only classes I wanted to take in graduate school in the US, and to my surprise they were a minority. Even in graduate school a substantial majority of classes only addressed memorization of the material and really basic (accessible to the average dope) understanding. (Glad I was not paying the tuition
The goal is that these new immigrants will have an incentive to keep their homes (for the citizenship), and may even end up being a better credit risk than native buyers.
Also, by putting a floor onto the ever growing problem of MBS loss, this will seriously reduce the amount of jobs that will be lost as a result. This is in a way, "creating jobs".
Also, there'll be a considerable sum of people (possibly foreigners with a lot of money or maybe even black money) that will outright bring money into the country.
Another way to solve the "create job" angle is to force traditional 20% down or even 25% down into the math.
Give everyone who buys an American home; a 30 year contract to the path of citizenship. As long as you service the mortgage you bought, you have a special residence-visa, at the end of payoff, you'll be a sparking citizen.
I think most immigrants would find the terms of the current entrepreneurial visa programs a little bit less onerous.
Well they've tried everything else over the past 26 years. Perhaps this is the charm?
Japan to empower watchdog to ban short sales
Government could have framework in place next month, Nikkei report says
By MarketWatch
Last update: 2:29 p.m. EDT Oct. 27, 2008
Comments: 2
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Japanese government is moving to give the Financial Services Agency the power to ban short selling whenever the financial watchdog deems it necessary as part of emergency market stabilization measures, according to a published report.
I noticed over at Ritholtz's site that once again we get more evidence supporting that there is one fundamental cause of all these panics, in this case the panic of 1893:
In 1891 we had a splendid grain crop... These splendid crops, with the consequent gold imports, were largely the causes of the intermediate rebound in 1891. Instead, however, of allowing conditions to adjust themselves naturally, the people attempted to bring still greater prosperity by indulging in more unintelligent legislation. Not content with making abnormally large appropriations the Fifty-first Congress began to increase the money in circulation inflate the currency and issue Treasury notes.
I'm sure glad I have a rich Uncle, because I know I can't afford to bail out private business. Don't know how Uncle Sam does it, but obviously he has cash to burn.
Speaking of bailouts, I have one kid who doesn't get the hottest grades. I need to schedule an appt. with Paulson because he could really use a little bailout on the grade inflation. If he doesn't get the bailout, society will be hurt due to his lack of productivity in finding a job that affords him the ability to pay a lot of taxes. So it's in the country's best interests. It's very important that he be bailed out.
I mean, this is just getting completely ludicrous. Into plaid.
Watching this afternoons indices feels like watching a battleship slowly sinking in deep water. The flag on the bridge (DOW) is the only part that's still dry.
I think most immigrants would find the terms of the current entrepreneurial visa programs a little bit less onerous.
Not the same. That program forces people to invest in pretty random programs that may/may not directly help our crisis. (mostly not, as they're all nearly unprofitable govt/state programs that promotes waste)
This directly attacks the inventory problem, as well as allow these people to service their mortgage and help right the banks to the more traditional angle.
Part of the current problem is that there's simply not enough American consumers that can do the 20% down loans; so the banks cannot "convert" to the traditional style of banking quickly from their existing disaster inventory.
its generally true that many are lazy and just look at the raw numbers without putting them in context
another example would be the statement that the Japan equity collpase since 1989 should be viewed in the context of deflationary forces that have blunted the impact of the decline - not true - Japan experienced slight price inflation - around 10%, since 1989 (in aggregate)
lazily looking at numbers will always get people in trouble...
FT Alphaville has a piece re short-selling and hedge funds:
"Max Warburton, the Sanford Bernstein analyst who undoubtedly hurried the Porsche disclosure, points out that in shorting VW stock over recently months, hedge funds must have been borrowing shares (indirectly and unknowingly) from Porsche itself. After all, aside from the Porsche holding, almost 20 per cent of VW is held by the Lower Saxony state, leaving a free float of less than 6 per cent...Heres the summary of a new Bernstein note sent to clients on Monday:
So was it more than a fairytale? Porsche announced on Sunday 26th that it controls 74.1% of VWs Ord shares 42.6% directly and 31.5% via cash-settled options. This announcement is overdue in our view and appears to support many of the ideas we put forward in our recent report, Porsche: The Fruit Machine? A Possible Explanation for VWs Inexorable Rise that Porsche was near 75%, that the daily volume seen in VW could likely only be short selling, that only Porsche or its banks could be providing the supply of stock and that Porsche was likely profiting from these transactions. Last week, Porsche described our report as a fairytale to the press.
Shutting down the Fruit Machine. Porsches disclosure effectively shuts down The Fruit Machine a potentially money making situation that only worked when Porsche owned more of VW than the market realised, and when there was a ready supply of hedge funds willing to put money into the slot, in the hope of a payout if the freefloat eventually traded on fundamentals. Now it is confirmed that there is no significant freefloat, and no payout, there will be no more players willing to feed the Fruit Machine.
Disclosure at last. Porsche states that it has decided to make this announcement after it became clear that there are by far more short positions in the market than expected. We find it surprising that Porsche can claim there were more shorts than expected given Porsche and its counterparties own nearly all the stock, so only they can have supplied stock for lending (aside from Lower Saxony), so they should have been reasonably aware of short positions. Information on short interest is also available publicly.
Short squeeze to infinity? Porsche also states that the disclosure should give the so called short sellers the opportunity to settle their relevant positions without rush. This is surely an ironic statement: we think it is likely there will be a stampede to close shorts. From whom will the hedge funds repurchase stock if Porsche and its counterparties own all but 5.9% of the freefloat? Do other funds (temporarily) hold VW shares that are ultimately already owned by Porsche? Did Porsche buy the shares from the short sellers for a second time? At what price will these other funds or Porsche and its counterparties sell VW shares back to the hedge funds? At a nice price to defuse the situation? Or at 300? 400? 500? Infinity?
One last jackpot for Porsche? The consequences of this disclosure are complex for the share prices of VW Ords, VW Prefs and Porsche. We discuss potential outcomes in this note but in simple terms we believe we will see a massive short squeeze on VW Ords, a further fall in VW Prefs (short term but not long-term might Porsche now eventually have to bid?) and probably some upside in Porsche. In theory, we believe that Porsche (if it so chooses) can make one last big profit from VW as the shorts are settled. Porsche also clearly believes it can soon get its hands on VWs cash pile.
Porsche appears to have made many billions of euros employing this fruit machine."
OK, that's a large clip but that is an example of a large scale fleecing. Apparently under German law Porsche didn't have to disclose its holdings. So if you are shorting a stock where you don't know what the float is or who owns the float at least at some point in recent history, you are very likely to lose your cash in a hurry.
CR - you might want to add a line for new home sales per capita (or per 1000, etc.) with a scale on the right side to emphasize how much sales have fallen.
I mentioned in a previous thread that it turns out that a number of Japanese banks have a proportion of their regulatory capital in equities...that might explain Japan's shorting ban. The zombies are still among us.
So far, despite massive efforts to infuse trillions of dollars in new money and credit to keep the international financial system at proper pressure, this is a textbook case of deflation.
The masters of the financial universe are applying their wizardry with no understanding whatever of the larger context within which the financial world breathes or expiresthe real world of energy, food, soil, climate, and water. Until there is someone in charge who really does comprehend these limiting factors, we will see nothing more than smoke and mirrors: first deflation, then inflation, then deflation again, until money is worthless and everything of value has been used, drained, burned, cut, eaten, or hoarded.
Ah, but its a beautiful morning here in the real world.
The U.S. stock market has lost 1,417 points--a decline of nearly $3 trillion in value--since President Bush signed into law a $700-billion financial industry bailout bill that was supported by both the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates.
I guess tit for tat, dollar for dollar, well, it didnt work....
DemoMemo writes:
"No troll. Just the facts. The average American household is not deeply in debt. Only 19 percent of homeowners even have a home equity loan."
Thank you for providing some facts which undercut the poltically driven noise in the system. Enjoyed your site. Don't know why anyone would attack you for posting your point of view. Please keep it up and don't be a stranger.
"You know what I just realized, people keep saying "small towns" are representative of America but its not the least bit true. Florida is the Cassandra of American society. A quasi-legal Hispanic lumpenprolitariet, a large ratio of retirees to workers (especially productive ones), and really pronounced income disparities."
Here in Santa Cruz, California coastal college town of 50,000, an underclass of newer-immigrated Latinos, legal or otherwise, does more and more of the everyday labor to support a class of retired academics (who bought 30 years ago), out-of-area college students, and well-to-do white collar families who get their incomes from the silicon valley. Latinos officiall count for 20 percent of the population, but they're probably a greater proportion of the labor force as many commute in to work from incorporated urban areas just over the city limits. Increasingly, the majority of construction and trade work is done by Latinos working for old-line contractors and tradesmen.
Santa Cruz likes to think of itself as progressive, but the elitism always shines through. It co-signed on a huge low-income housing project -- for artists only! Damned thing's almost ready to go, too.
B.S! I know soooo many people sooo underwater. I'd imagine 70%+ of people under the age of 35 are in deep/severe financial trouble...all college educated. Maybe 1/10 are doing ok at best. Don't believe what you read.
Birthright citizenship for any children born to the home owners pretty much kills it.
If it were that easy to use birthright citizenship as a lever, then we won't have so many illegal immigrants that are still illegal, sometimes after 10 years in the country.
In order for your kid's citizenship to be used as a leverage to "bring in" the parents, the kid has to be 18 to do this.
The anchor babies thing is a myth. Just giving birth to a child on US soil DOES NOT entitle you to live or work in the US! This is law. Your child can live and work in the US, yes, in 18 years! If an illegal alien gives birth to a child on US soil, the child will be given a birth certificate and then the parent will be deported. They could technically leave the child behind, but I doubt many chose to do so.
"One of the few places of market optimism on Friday was Zimbabwe, an economically troubled part of Africa. The Zimbabwe Industrial Index gained 249.90% on Friday in a bizarre response to the country's hyperinflation. Many vendors prefer to barter rather than accept near worthless cash, so residents with extra money are piling it into the stock market, hoping for gains once the country's violent political situation is resolved."
Here in Santa Cruz, California coastal college town of 50,000, an underclass of newer-immigrated Latinos, legal or otherwise, does more and more of the everyday labor to support a class of retired academics (who bought 30 years ago), out-of-area college students, and well-to-do white collar families who get their incomes from the silicon valley.
You've basically described Western Europe, except replace the Latinos with the Poles, Hungarians, etc.
The anchor babies thing is a myth. Just giving birth to a child on US soil DOES NOT entitle you to live or work in the US! This is law. Your child can live and work in the US, yes, in 18 years! If an illegal alien gives birth to a child on US soil, the child will be given a birth certificate and then the parent will be deported. They could technically leave the child behind, but I doubt many chose to do so.
There's the law, and then there is what is practiced. If you even have to face an immigration judge(BIG IF) having an American citizen child gets you a lot of stay points.
Nice little pump to allow me to unload some longs ahead of the grim lineup of economic reports due this week. GDP could easily be quite a shocking print.
--
"By this measure, 2008 is the worst year for new home sales since the Census Bureau started tracking new home sales (starting in 1963)."
Didn't someone here tell you that months ago, though not is the same language?
Someone did know the real housing demand and someone didn't. All the forecasting errors about housing are rooted in bad "estimate" of the demand when no estimate was needed. The data told what the actual demand was all these years, but why bother with the data when estimate is required to inflate the demand number.
Anyway, all economists I know of inflated the housing demand. I don't understand why, but that was the case during 2004-07.
Captain fish,
I'm not trying to dispute immigration or go into immigration law for illegals/legals,etc.
All I'm saying is that the Citizenship has value to many foreigners (for now), we can use that to our advantage by creating a home-for-citizenship program that some immigrants will find valuable.
Attacking the housing problem is attacking the problem at it's root, so have the most leverage.
Although US homes seem unaffordable right now, but to many immigrants, esp in Asia, our properties are quite cheap in their standards, so price won't be an issue for them.
I think the NYSE ought to break for a few minutes right before 3 PM for some sort of musical number a la MNF. Hank Williams Jr. (or preferably Faith Hill) belting out "Are you ready for some PPT?" seems like it would set the appropriate mood for the last hour shenanigans.
"You've basically described Western Europe, except replace the Latinos with the Poles, Hungarians, etc.
Basel Too | 10.27.08 - 2:56 pm | # "
One more question, Basel Two: in Santa Cruz, the old working class left town, went inland in California or elsewhere in the States where their kind of jobs paid enough to afford housing. What happens to these guys in Europe?
scared in pa does have a good point about people bringing cash with them to invest. Still, it seems structuring the deal to ensure the goals would be difficult. On the other hand, the efforts made so far would appear to be hopelessy misdirected, so this idea is far better than those.
yes, zimbabwe is currently the best performing stock market.
this is because people buy assets to preserve value of wealth in times of inflation.
Our time will come, the fed knows that. But it is self-fulfilling. people must beleive inflation is imminent to do that. right now we have exactly the opposit, so the feds actions are meaningless, just like in the jap case.
the old working class left town, went inland in California or elsewhere in the States where their kind of jobs paid enough to afford housing.
I don't actually live in Europe, but get first hand accounts from my uncle, who's lived their 30+ years. From what understand, gentrification wasn't all bad except in extreme places (Barcelona, London, etc) because it is Western Europe (e.g. really generous safety net)
I know this idea has flaws, but if you guys (one of the smartest bunch in this crisis watch) agree that it has a shot at actually helping us solve the global finance crisis, I would submit it to the congressman and hope it floats up to be debated.
It may not just be plain talk in that case. Also, it has very little upfront cost from the govt, and little administration fee, unlike all our bailouts so far.
OT. What happened between 11:45-1 pm on the DOW? Weirdly straight line.
Not so OT. Some of you guys in this thread mentioned how not that many people have home loans. There is another kind of personal ATM than HELOCs--banks were offering essentially refinancing on paid-for cars to millions of customers. As the economy crashes further, we can expect these loans to crater, too.
Bob Dobbs writes:
"Barley writes:
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (HK) plans to enter receivership"
Donuts are a poor match against a good steamed pork bun.
Nooooo! This might mean Americans get trim!
On topic,
I'm seeing coworkers jumping in to buy at today's bargain prices because they know that it will be the best return. Discussions on cash flow... irrelevant! Ugh... 2009 is going to fleece a lot of Sheeple.
Oh, look. The other little rascals are poking their heads out, too.
If this market were at all logical, the invisible hand would play whack-a-mole with the indices going into the close. Not likely in the world we actually live in. DJI +200 at 4PM anyone?
Your idea would destroy national security. What better way for a hostile terrorist organization or sovereign nation to seed the US with sleeper cells.
China could also buy up an industry in a certain area and then buy up all empty housing in the area. Send some of their unemployed here and start taking advantage of their dollar reserves.
Just a couple issues. I'm sure you could overcome those with the right legislation. Instead of contacting your congress person I would recommend contacting the Chinese embassy and get them working on it. Better and faster results.
@ "if you guys (one of the smartest bunch in this crisis watch) agree that it has a shot at actually helping us solve the global finance crisis, I would submit it to the congressman"
Already tried that leading up to the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008. They passed it anyway. I sold what little long positions I had left that Friday. At least someone had the good sense to sneak in equity injections, except that we're still not getting preferred, voting shares, and there's no conditions that the bailed out banks have to lend out our money again. Stupid, stupid.
The only thing left is full-up nationalization, complete with wiping out any zombie banks and corporations and their shareholders, and firing the boards of any bank that needs a bailout.
This cartoon gets at the heart of the problem. Congress can't fix this alone.
There is a chance we may have been forming a bear flag this last 2 days which resolution may lead to a test of the 2002 lows (also would coincide with the resolution of a triangle on 60 min. charts SPX) target 775 regio
We need strong leaders to get us out of this mess. First off, tell Americans that they can't buy everything they want and need to save. Such leaders would be disposed of quickly for more optimistic ones.
CR - Thanks for including the normalization to number of housing units!
Also, regarding the IRX (3 month yield) versus the Fed Funds Rate - the IRX generally runs 0.25 to 0.75% lower than the Fed Funds Rate.
An IRX matching the FFT leads to either an FFT rate hike or an imminent decline of the IRX. An IRX too far below the FFT tends to signal a Fed rate cut.
Whether the IRX leads the Fed's policy moves, or the Fed "jawbones" the IRX in the direction the Fed wants to go, is a subject entirely unto itself...
I am no longer posting on TickerForum (Denninger rants too strongly for my taste) but I found some of the independent-investor research posted there was quite useful.
I'm seeing coworkers jumping in to buy at today's bargain prices because they know that it will be the best return. Discussions on cash flow... irrelevant! Ugh... 2009 is going to fleece a lot of Sheeple.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Unless they can stick together for a good solid six months... A giant band of idiots can make a pretty big impact for finite periods of time! (Now I sound like Jas)
Overhead? It think what popeye is forgetting is we have no bottom on the market. It's bleeding to death and people need cash. Until we stop the blood loss no rally can survive more than a day before people will cash out.
I'm seeing coworkers jumping in to buy at today's bargain prices because they know that it will be the best return. Discussions on cash flow... irrelevant! Ugh... 2009 is going to fleece a lot of Sheeple.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
This is precisely why capitulation is years away. Everybody and his uncle is now a market timer in every asset class.
Instead of thinking about growing the pie, everybody is just tryin' to "get mine". Until that mentality is wrung from the market, the bottom will be elusive.
@Basel Too: Flip the chart upside down, and it's a nice clean parabolic topping pattern. I am trading as if we're in a low-volume retest that will eventually fail and generate a strong reversal of the recent trend.
But, because it's still possible we're about to extend the prior run for another round, I haven't put all my chips in yet.
My money is on the reversal, at about 20% of available capital.
While some of the other markets are hitting new lows, the SP500 is still holding above the 839.80 low, and every day that it does hold, the odds of the reversal become more likely.
"This is precisely why capitulation is years away. Everybody and his uncle is now a market timer in every asset class."
safe_as_apartments | 10.27.08 - 3:40 pm | #
Is that the consensus on CR comments? We won't see a rapid collapse but a few years of steadily eroding country?
Looking at the bright side of the graph, I don't see any blue bar on the last data point. Can this be attributed to Republicans saving our economy? I guess it will be time to build new homes after McCain's inauguration. And with Sarah, I swear she winked at me! I mean, I suddenly sat a little straighter when she did that during the debates.
You think I'm a stupid, low-information voter, huh? Darn tootin' you betcha!
@safe_as_apartments: "Instead of thinking about growing the pie, everybody is just tryin' to "get mine". Until that mentality is wrung from the market, the bottom will be elusive."
Actually, that's how the pie has always grown.
But I agree that there's still too much speculation. On the other hand, at the moment this is a trader's market and not yet clearly a buy-and-hold value-investing market.
But my research time is being spent thinking about what companies will be adding real value to the economy going forward, so that in the next wave I can trade my index swing plays for buy-and-hold investments in companies I can truly believe in.
OT. What happened between 11:45-1 pm on the DOW? Weirdly straight line.
I agree with Jes. What exactly is accounting for those gianormous volume trades before 10a, 11a, and after 12p. They are just completely loco compared to the rest of the day.
I don't know about that; though you quickly point out that there is too much speculation.
There is a difference between trying to "get mine" by coming up with a new widget and trying to "get mine" by fleecing somebody else. That's not a value-add operation, by my book.
Wholesale gasoline closed @ $1.46/gal. Just read on another blog that retail gas in my former state (OK) is under 2 bucks. It's still 80 cents higher in Central FL - but I don't care, don't buy the stuff, only burn it.
I would be more than willing to buy-and-hold, but the rules keep changing. For now I'm playing the in and out game looking to recover some of my losses over the past year ( liquidated to cash long before the worst of it ).
When there is real value in the market I would be happy to "grow th pie" but right now it seems insane to play that game while the rules are constantly being mucked with.
Speed writes:
"We need strong leaders to get us out of this mess. First off, tell Americans that they can't buy everything they want and need to save."
What incentives does the Government ever provide to save? Its all about stimulus to save "jobs" (i.e. votes) with artificially depressed interest rates and inflationary programs. Krugmans are now in charge ("forget about the deficit") Government is pro-inflation and anti-wealth preservation. This is their way of "spreading it around"
I am no longer posting on TickerForum (Denninger rants too strongly for my taste) but I found some of the independent-investor research posted there was quite useful
same here (which felt like deserting since I did read the Tickerforum from its very first days), but I have always appreciated KD; whether he rants or not (and who does not at times) he means well (if not always right as a trader... but again who does these days)
I get at least a half dozen unsolicited credit offers per week - mortgages, home equity, credit cards. No joke.
Here's the gig. Credit IS available, but only to credit worthy borrowers. In my view, credit markets HAVE returned to normal - borrowers are once again expected to be able to pay the loans back.
Basel Too writes:
I don't get the technical analysis of this situation... We are truly on terra incognito.
I don't think there is as much panic as people think, I think it is biz. a usual... just a bit more "elastic". The illusion of panic helps profitability
"Yes, but only the original (Deutsch) uncut version."
That's what I was talking about. Hadn't seen it until about 8 years ago when I got my Dad his first DVD player and the original cut of Das Boot on DVD as his first title (he was XO on a couple of diesel boats during 'Nam). Great movie.
Here's an insight. Wall street firms need to thin the herd in a big way. To many of the current group of employees can no delude themselves or their clients via financial shams.
The plan is the same as always. Cut costs and bring in a new group of Ivy League neer-do-wells/believers/go-getters. Their belief in their own lies and fed malfeasance will ignite another boom.
Real savings and capital formation - NFW. We need booms. Big money in that.
The ATF says it has broken up a plot to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree.
In court records unsealed Monday, agents said they disrupted plans to rob a gun store and target an unnamed by predominantly African-American high school by two neo-Nazi skinheads.
Not the bottom...wait for the next wave of resets next month and next year this time...there are a lot of refi's in the negative too, and they will not be in the positive for 10-20 years. It's like the "recovery" of the NASDAQ- ain't happening.
You asked for people to guess what sales were going to be for the year some time ago. It is looking like those who estimated on the low side will win. What was the prize going to be for the winner, by the way?
1 ?
Well I guess that's the bottom, then.
Does being first mean i deflowered a virgin? (love those old terms)
"2008 is the worst year for new home sales since the Census Bureau started tracking new home sales (starting in 1963)."
NAR translation anybody?
NAR translation anybody?
There's never been a better time to buy or sell real estate.
What a surprise. Yawn.
When is SecTreas going to start buying pu these distressed assets?
Michael Hudson:
"Heres why it is impossible to go back to the past, as if this were some kind of normal condition that can be recovered. When Alan Greenspan flooded the mortgage market with credit, homeowners borrowed against (cashed out on) the rise in housing prices as if their homes were a piggy bank. The difference, of course, is that when one draws down a bank account there is less money in it, but no debt is involved to absorb future income in repayment schedules. Equity loans have left a debt residue, which now has turned into negative equity with loans still needing to be repaid. This will leave less for consumption. So U.S. consumer spending will fall because of (1) no more easy mortgage or credit-card credit, (2) debt deflation as consumers repay past borrowing, crowding out other forms of spending, and (3) downsizing and job losses lead to falling wage income.
Lower consumer spending means less sales by U.S. and foreign manufacturers especially those in countries whose currency is rising against the dollar (e.g., Japan). Lower sales mean lower earnings, which mean lower stock prices. And in the stock market itself, price/earnings ratios are falling as the credit that fueled stock-market speculation by hedge funds and other arbitrageurs is cut back. So the combination of falling price/earnings ratios and falling earnings mean less in the denominator (earnings) to be multiplied into prices (earnings capitalized at the going interest rate).
Declining stock market prices are reducing the coverage of corporate pension funds (as well as personal retirement accounts), requiring higher set-asides to fully fund these accounts. In the face of tightening bank credit, this will cut back new corporate spending on plant and equipment, further slowing the economy.
As foreign exporters are rudely awakened the dream of an American demand, when will the point come at which Europe and Asia seek to build up their own domestic consumer markets as an alternative? The first problem is to overcome the ideological bias in which central bankers are indoctrinated, in a world where politicians have relinquished economic policy to bankers trained in Chicago School financial warfare against labor and even against industry. It probably is too much to hope that todays European central bankers and kindred economic managers will drop their neoliberal anti-labor ideology and see that without a thriving domestic market, their own industrial firms will languish. The solution must come from a revived political sector representing the interests of labor, and even of industry itself as it sees the need to revive domestic markets."
Michael Hudson: Scenes From the Global Class War
Welcome to the study of asset limbonomics -- "how low can it go?"
My guess -- it's still a couple of years before the limbo dancer loses balance and smacks his bottom on the floor. At least in my California bubble area.
Now, don't go analyzing the data. Just go along with the feel-good headline: Housing sales up in September!! And then go out and buy a refrigerator or three.
that Hudson fellow sure does take away the punch bowl, doesn't he?
Yes, Mel. You profaned a virgin post.
I note that the Sept.-to-year-end sales increased over the 90s. That may be proportional to the overall growth, but those last 3 months will need to take about a 1/3 hit over last year to match 1991. That would be rough.
It would be interesting to plot the owner occupied ratio here. Wouldn't that filter out the investment property boom of the last 8 years? I imagine that would reflect the real changes in the national homeownership rate.
I once new a Mel in Boise that talked like the Mel on this site.
This Mel was born and bred in Brooklyn, NY--you got a problem with that? I now live by the beach in NC--and miss my piasans.
Now that's just piling on.
aleister perdurabo, I hope that wasn't news to you.
eRobin writes:
Now, don't go analyzing the data. Just go along with the feel-good headline: Housing sales up in September!! And then go out and buy a refrigerator or three.
WHR +2.19 4.45%
News Alert
Stocks rally on increasing confidence in Treasury Plans.
Just wanted to make sure no one missed this important alert.
I thought the market was rallying due to all the positive earnings reports.
buffet's shopping for value
aleister,
I generally agree with the contents of that quote you posted. Asian countries have been exploiting their domestic sectors to subsidize export industries to gain economic advantage vs primarily the US. However, Japanese monetary policy has been as loose as Greenspan's was for a long time. Obviously the whole point of the carry trade was that the vast amount of yen being pushed out by the BoJ had nowhere to go domestically and thus was farmed out to blow up the long term credit bubble that is now imploding.
Just in case this hasn't been posted yet. States and municipalities are facing lots of trouble.
US public pension funds face big losses
FT.com / US & Canada - US public pension funds face big losses
Public pension funds in US states are facing their worst year of losses in history, exacerbating existing funding shortfalls and putting pressure on state governments to shore them up.
In the nine months to the end of September, the average state pension fund lost 14.8 per cent, according to Northern Trust, a fund company. The loss has grown since, as financial markets slumped further in October. The previous highest loss for state funds was 7.9 per cent for the full year in 2002. ...
Not to mention increasing consumer confidence.
I see no backbone in this "rally" +-50 on the DJI for the day.
hmmm, safe haven buys, end of the month fund buys, fomc meeting, end of the year fund buys, end of excessive pessimism buys ....
And remember (I do, because I bought a house in 1982), that the interest rates in 1980-82 were outrageous. When I bought a house in the Spring of 1982, my interest rate was 16.7%.
So doing worse than that, with low interest rates, is horrendous.
its been a LONGGGGGGGGGG time since things have been so "quiet" and "calm"
feels weird not to have my RSS reader blowing up every 30 seconds
it's not the rally that is important today, it's preventing the plunge
Size of daily percentage gain is currently inversely proportional to the breadth of the index. DJI > OEX > NDX > SPX > COMP > NYSE.
Interesting.
@ David in NY
Just wait until mortgage rates get back to that level. Then it will be interesting.
its been a LONGGGGGGGGGG time since things have been so "quiet" and "calm"
This is the point in the old B&W adventure movie where the drums stop beating and the "It's quiet. Too quiet." line gets trotted out.
@Mr. T:
"Then it will be interesting."
As in the old curse, "May you live in interesting times."
fake seb's world writes:
Buffet's shopping for value
And getting his azz handed to him in precisely sliced sheets of fatty goodness.
BRK-A $147k to $112k in 5 weeks.
Buffet's problem is in believing in a knowable market. We've all long since abandonded "rational market" but he is olde skool clinging to hiz sekret weapon of a fantasy mathematical model of "value." IMO it fundamentally failed on several levels but mostly on demographics. We are turning Japanese and immigration of all sorts isn't enough to sustain his pump model.
DIN reports losses of .47/share and same store guidance for next year and jumps 50% in mid day trading.
" Mr. T. writes:
@ David in NY
Just wait until mortgage rates get back to that level. Then it will be interesting.
Mr. T. | 10.27.08 - 2:22 pm | # "
Well if it did, it would really be interesting. Because it's my recollection that, at least in some states, assumable loans were still common in the early '80s. Which cushioned the blow of high interest rates for some. No assumables this time around.
its not freshing keep clicking on here to refresh not working
Pardners,
"how low can it go?"
Hint: CR will have to revise all his charts to show a lower boundary of "Negative Infinity".
Giddyup!
Im still hearing radio advertisements on my daily commute about 0% down and whatnot for the purchase of new cars. Are people still purchasing cars like they were in the heady days of the bubble and are banks still offering schmucks low interest loans or are these simply redundant advertisements, like the WaMu and (more appropriately) Enzyte commercials that kept airing despite either bankruptcy or federal prison for fraud? I'm also hearing occasional adverts for residential community real estate. Maybe Florida is full of crazies afterall.
You know what I just realized, people keep saying "small towns" are representative of America but its not the least bit true. Florida is the Cassandra of American society. A quasi-legal Hispanic lumpenprolitariet, a large ratio of retirees to workers (especially productive ones), and really pronounced income disparities.
I have a solution that will solve everything.
It's surprisingly simple.
Give everyone who buys an American home; a 30 year contract to the path of citizenship. As long as you service the mortgage you bought, you have a special residence-visa, at the end of payoff, you'll be a sparking citizen.
For those who buy a home outright, they must still own a home for 5 years before becoming a citizen.
You'll be surprised how many homes will outright vanish from the market and our inventory problem will instantly be solved.
Additional conditions can be added to tweak this; to prevent a new bubble from forming; like only in markets with more than 7+ months inventory; etc.
What do you guys in CR think?
These 2pm trend reversals are the new 3pm PPT. What gives?
If you look at the numbers from household surveys, you will see that the average American household is not deeply in debt. Most do not carry much of a balance on their credit card. Most homeowners do not have a home equity loan.
Someday someone will analyze the current financial crisis and discover that we have all been had by a relatively small bunch of crooks and gamblers. Right now those crooks and gamblers are hoping we keep pointing the finger of blame at one another while they ride off into the sunset.
These 2pm trend reversals are the new 3pm PPT. What gives?
Prices will fluctuate.
scared in pa,
Not a bad idea, but I doubt our economy has the jobs to support the mortgage payments.
Well if it did, it would really be interesting. Because it's my recollection that, at least in some states, assumable loans were still common in the early '80s. Which cushioned the blow of high interest rates for some. No assumables this time around.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 10.27.08 - 2:26 pm
Since t-bills are roughly equivalent to fannie/freddie bonds, late 70's/early 80's rates hit when China either a)diversifies out of u.s. gov securities, or b)when china has no more money to buy and securities, u.s. or otherwise
When that happens, we will all be in a world of hurt. Interest on the debt would probably consume 75% of total budget.
8587 the top today or are we getting the 2 o'clock push?
I get email for my rewards programs. Car rental offers are down to $10 a day midsize. La Quinta is offering $49 a night if you book 14 days in advance.
6 months ago a good deal for a rental car was $24.99 and the lowest La Quinta offering was $89 a night.
Real economy is deflating as well.
DemoMemo -
i am going to assume you are a troll.
...or that you dont live in the usa.
Battle of the Bots update:
Fundastar's P/E Cannon just got chopped in half by the Momentum Mother's de-leveraging buzzsaw.
Tide is turning in favor of Team MoMo.
David in NY said: "When I bought a house in the Spring of 1982, my interest rate was 16.7%."
You got a deal. I paid 17.5%.
30 year fixed, 20% down, sterling credit.
Slightly OT
You guys are more than often mentioning b. and b. dopes
Here is the explanation for this phenomenon:
On NPR Think today (second hour) podcast soon- KERA | Public Television, Radio and Online Media for North Texas | Think
The Global Achievement Gap
Tony Wagner
What should American public schools be teaching and why aren't they teaching it? We'll talk this hour with Tony Wagner, co-director of the Change Leadership Group at Harvard's Graduate School of Education. His new book is "The Global Achievement Gap: Why Even Our Best Schools Don't Teach the New Survival Skills Our Children Need - and What We Can Do about It" (Basic Books, 2008).
Publications/Recordings
"The Global Achievement Gap: Why Even Our Best Schools Don't Teach the New Survival Skills Our Children Need - and What We Can Do about It" (Basic Books, 2008)
About Us
my notes on the interview-and my own comments:
obviously the only important skills are:
critical thinking, problem solving, adaptability-agility, how to ask the right questions (identify what you do not know that you should know), figure out which are the important questions which are not
how to test for these skills:
surely not by multiple choice test !!!
more like problem solving questions with open books (ie you can bring the entire library , your laptop etc... to the test) if you have not assimilated the field of study and do not understand the material in depth there is not way you can answer the questions in the required time, even with all the books in the world in
front of you. (these are the only classes I wanted to take in graduate school in the US, and to my surprise they were a minority. Even in graduate school a substantial majority of classes only addressed memorization of the material and really basic (accessible to the average dope) understanding. (Glad I was not paying the tuition
labrador,
The goal is that these new immigrants will have an incentive to keep their homes (for the citizenship), and may even end up being a better credit risk than native buyers.
Also, by putting a floor onto the ever growing problem of MBS loss, this will seriously reduce the amount of jobs that will be lost as a result. This is in a way, "creating jobs".
Also, there'll be a considerable sum of people (possibly foreigners with a lot of money or maybe even black money) that will outright bring money into the country.
Another way to solve the "create job" angle is to force traditional 20% down or even 25% down into the math.
I really think this will work!
Give everyone who buys an American home; a 30 year contract to the path of citizenship. As long as you service the mortgage you bought, you have a special residence-visa, at the end of payoff, you'll be a sparking citizen.
I think most immigrants would find the terms of the current entrepreneurial visa programs a little bit less onerous.
No troll. Just the facts. The average American household is not deeply in debt. Only 19 percent of homeowners even have a home equity loan.
Well they've tried everything else over the past 26 years. Perhaps this is the charm?
Japan to empower watchdog to ban short sales
Government could have framework in place next month, Nikkei report says
By MarketWatch
Last update: 2:29 p.m. EDT Oct. 27, 2008
Comments: 2
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Japanese government is moving to give the Financial Services Agency the power to ban short selling whenever the financial watchdog deems it necessary as part of emergency market stabilization measures, according to a published report.
Story here.
I noticed over at Ritholtz's site that once again we get more evidence supporting that there is one fundamental cause of all these panics, in this case the panic of 1893:
In 1891 we had a splendid grain crop... These splendid crops, with the consequent gold imports, were largely the causes of the intermediate rebound in 1891. Instead, however, of allowing conditions to adjust themselves naturally, the people attempted to bring still greater prosperity by indulging in more unintelligent legislation. Not content with making abnormally large appropriations the Fifty-first Congress began to increase the money in circulation inflate the currency and issue Treasury notes.
The Recovery from the Great Panic of 1873
Scared_in_pa,
Good on the face of it, bad when you think about the details. Birthright citizenship for any children born to the home owners pretty much kills it.
NAR Translation: 2008 was the forty-fifth best year for sales in history!
This must have been posted already but I don't see it:
Bush administration eyes help for automakers - Oct. 27, 2008
Carmakers May Be Next Up For Bailout
I'm sure glad I have a rich Uncle, because I know I can't afford to bail out private business. Don't know how Uncle Sam does it, but obviously he has cash to burn.
Speaking of bailouts, I have one kid who doesn't get the hottest grades. I need to schedule an appt. with Paulson because he could really use a little bailout on the grade inflation. If he doesn't get the bailout, society will be hurt due to his lack of productivity in finding a job that affords him the ability to pay a lot of taxes. So it's in the country's best interests. It's very important that he be bailed out.
I mean, this is just getting completely ludicrous. Into plaid.
Watching this afternoons indices feels like watching a battleship slowly sinking in deep water. The flag on the bridge (DOW) is the only part that's still dry.
demomemo is just deflated jas "small number of crooks and gamblers"
ullpointer astutely observed: "i am going to assume you are a troll."
He's trolling for hits to his blog, the link to which is contained in 'homepage' below his post.
Fie on trols!
Outsider: Very nice. "Spaceball One. They've gone to plaid!"
Basel Too:
I think most immigrants would find the terms of the current entrepreneurial visa programs a little bit less onerous.
Not the same. That program forces people to invest in pretty random programs that may/may not directly help our crisis. (mostly not, as they're all nearly unprofitable govt/state programs that promotes waste)
This directly attacks the inventory problem, as well as allow these people to service their mortgage and help right the banks to the more traditional angle.
Part of the current problem is that there's simply not enough American consumers that can do the 20% down loans; so the banks cannot "convert" to the traditional style of banking quickly from their existing disaster inventory.
thanks for the analysis CR
its generally true that many are lazy and just look at the raw numbers without putting them in context
another example would be the statement that the Japan equity collpase since 1989 should be viewed in the context of deflationary forces that have blunted the impact of the decline - not true - Japan experienced slight price inflation - around 10%, since 1989 (in aggregate)
lazily looking at numbers will always get people in trouble...
FT Alphaville has a piece re short-selling and hedge funds:
"Max Warburton, the Sanford Bernstein analyst who undoubtedly hurried the Porsche disclosure, points out that in shorting VW stock over recently months, hedge funds must have been borrowing shares (indirectly and unknowingly) from Porsche itself. After all, aside from the Porsche holding, almost 20 per cent of VW is held by the Lower Saxony state, leaving a free float of less than 6 per cent...Heres the summary of a new Bernstein note sent to clients on Monday:
So was it more than a fairytale? Porsche announced on Sunday 26th that it controls 74.1% of VWs Ord shares 42.6% directly and 31.5% via cash-settled options. This announcement is overdue in our view and appears to support many of the ideas we put forward in our recent report, Porsche: The Fruit Machine? A Possible Explanation for VWs Inexorable Rise that Porsche was near 75%, that the daily volume seen in VW could likely only be short selling, that only Porsche or its banks could be providing the supply of stock and that Porsche was likely profiting from these transactions. Last week, Porsche described our report as a fairytale to the press.
Shutting down the Fruit Machine. Porsches disclosure effectively shuts down The Fruit Machine a potentially money making situation that only worked when Porsche owned more of VW than the market realised, and when there was a ready supply of hedge funds willing to put money into the slot, in the hope of a payout if the freefloat eventually traded on fundamentals. Now it is confirmed that there is no significant freefloat, and no payout, there will be no more players willing to feed the Fruit Machine.
Disclosure at last. Porsche states that it has decided to make this announcement after it became clear that there are by far more short positions in the market than expected. We find it surprising that Porsche can claim there were more shorts than expected given Porsche and its counterparties own nearly all the stock, so only they can have supplied stock for lending (aside from Lower Saxony), so they should have been reasonably aware of short positions. Information on short interest is also available publicly.
Short squeeze to infinity? Porsche also states that the disclosure should give the so called short sellers the opportunity to settle their relevant positions without rush. This is surely an ironic statement: we think it is likely there will be a stampede to close shorts. From whom will the hedge funds repurchase stock if Porsche and its counterparties own all but 5.9% of the freefloat? Do other funds (temporarily) hold VW shares that are ultimately already owned by Porsche? Did Porsche buy the shares from the short sellers for a second time? At what price will these other funds or Porsche and its counterparties sell VW shares back to the hedge funds? At a nice price to defuse the situation? Or at 300? 400? 500? Infinity?
One last jackpot for Porsche? The consequences of this disclosure are complex for the share prices of VW Ords, VW Prefs and Porsche. We discuss potential outcomes in this note but in simple terms we believe we will see a massive short squeeze on VW Ords, a further fall in VW Prefs (short term but not long-term might Porsche now eventually have to bid?) and probably some upside in Porsche. In theory, we believe that Porsche (if it so chooses) can make one last big profit from VW as the shorts are settled. Porsche also clearly believes it can soon get its hands on VWs cash pile.
Porsche appears to have made many billions of euros employing this fruit machine."
OK, that's a large clip but that is an example of a large scale fleecing. Apparently under German law Porsche didn't have to disclose its holdings. So if you are shorting a stock where you don't know what the float is or who owns the float at least at some point in recent history, you are very likely to lose your cash in a hurry.
No troll. Just the facts. The average American household is not deeply in debt. Only 19 percent of homeowners even have a home equity loan.
Hmmm... last I recall consumer debt to income ratios were around 130%, near historic highs after rising dramatically since the early 80s.
CR - you might want to add a line for new home sales per capita (or per 1000, etc.) with a scale on the right side to emphasize how much sales have fallen.
I mentioned in a previous thread that it turns out that a number of Japanese banks have a proportion of their regulatory capital in equities...that might explain Japan's shorting ban. The zombies are still among us.
--Heinberg
The U.S. stock market has lost 1,417 points--a decline of nearly $3 trillion in value--since President Bush signed into law a $700-billion financial industry bailout bill that was supported by both the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates.
I guess tit for tat, dollar for dollar, well, it didnt work....
they said it was to help the market.
With help like that.....
DemoMemo writes:
"No troll. Just the facts. The average American household is not deeply in debt. Only 19 percent of homeowners even have a home equity loan."
Thank you for providing some facts which undercut the poltically driven noise in the system. Enjoyed your site. Don't know why anyone would attack you for posting your point of view. Please keep it up and don't be a stranger.
"You know what I just realized, people keep saying "small towns" are representative of America but its not the least bit true. Florida is the Cassandra of American society. A quasi-legal Hispanic lumpenprolitariet, a large ratio of retirees to workers (especially productive ones), and really pronounced income disparities."
Here in Santa Cruz, California coastal college town of 50,000, an underclass of newer-immigrated Latinos, legal or otherwise, does more and more of the everyday labor to support a class of retired academics (who bought 30 years ago), out-of-area college students, and well-to-do white collar families who get their incomes from the silicon valley. Latinos officiall count for 20 percent of the population, but they're probably a greater proportion of the labor force as many commute in to work from incorporated urban areas just over the city limits. Increasingly, the majority of construction and trade work is done by Latinos working for old-line contractors and tradesmen.
Santa Cruz likes to think of itself as progressive, but the elitism always shines through. It co-signed on a huge low-income housing project -- for artists only! Damned thing's almost ready to go, too.
So, is anybody else watching USD/JPY?
93.50 to 94.20 in the past 10 minutes. Chart is going vertical.
It's fun watching major world currencies trade like micro-caps.
DemoMemo,
Average person is not deeply in debt?
B.S! I know soooo many people sooo underwater. I'd imagine 70%+ of people under the age of 35 are in deep/severe financial trouble...all college educated. Maybe 1/10 are doing ok at best. Don't believe what you read.
Captain Fish:
Birthright citizenship for any children born to the home owners pretty much kills it.
If it were that easy to use birthright citizenship as a lever, then we won't have so many illegal immigrants that are still illegal, sometimes after 10 years in the country.
In order for your kid's citizenship to be used as a leverage to "bring in" the parents, the kid has to be 18 to do this.
The anchor babies thing is a myth. Just giving birth to a child on US soil DOES NOT entitle you to live or work in the US! This is law. Your child can live and work in the US, yes, in 18 years! If an illegal alien gives birth to a child on US soil, the child will be given a birth certificate and then the parent will be deported. They could technically leave the child behind, but I doubt many chose to do so.
Funny. Unintended consequence of hyperinflation.
"One of the few places of market optimism on Friday was Zimbabwe, an economically troubled part of Africa. The Zimbabwe Industrial Index gained 249.90% on Friday in a bizarre response to the country's hyperinflation. Many vendors prefer to barter rather than accept near worthless cash, so residents with extra money are piling it into the stock market, hoping for gains once the country's violent political situation is resolved."
Financial Armageddon
Here in Santa Cruz, California coastal college town of 50,000, an underclass of newer-immigrated Latinos, legal or otherwise, does more and more of the everyday labor to support a class of retired academics (who bought 30 years ago), out-of-area college students, and well-to-do white collar families who get their incomes from the silicon valley.
You've basically described Western Europe, except replace the Latinos with the Poles, Hungarians, etc.
The anchor babies thing is a myth. Just giving birth to a child on US soil DOES NOT entitle you to live or work in the US! This is law. Your child can live and work in the US, yes, in 18 years! If an illegal alien gives birth to a child on US soil, the child will be given a birth certificate and then the parent will be deported. They could technically leave the child behind, but I doubt many chose to do so.
There's the law, and then there is what is practiced. If you even have to face an immigration judge(BIG IF) having an American citizen child gets you a lot of stay points.
Nice little pump to allow me to unload some longs ahead of the grim lineup of economic reports due this week. GDP could easily be quite a shocking print.
"You've basically described Western Europe, except replace the Latinos with the Poles, Hungarians, etc."
Sorry to hear that. I went down to Costa Rica once and saw the same thing; only there, the underclass was Nicaraguan.
--
"By this measure, 2008 is the worst year for new home sales since the Census Bureau started tracking new home sales (starting in 1963)."
Didn't someone here tell you that months ago, though not is the same language?
Someone did know the real housing demand and someone didn't. All the forecasting errors about housing are rooted in bad "estimate" of the demand when no estimate was needed. The data told what the actual demand was all these years, but why bother with the data when estimate is required to inflate the demand number.
Anyway, all economists I know of inflated the housing demand. I don't understand why, but that was the case during 2004-07.
Q: What was the actual demand during 2001-2007?
Jas
Afternoon selloff begins ?
tick tick tick 4 minutes until SHOWTIME!!
Analysis below is correct. Indeed market is up.
"
The war on Syria/Iran has started (also means market will be up as this indicates US still has money and defense business is back). details below.
MarketWarnings: US attacks Syria october 26, 2008). Is iran war next?
Captain fish,
I'm not trying to dispute immigration or go into immigration law for illegals/legals,etc.
All I'm saying is that the Citizenship has value to many foreigners (for now), we can use that to our advantage by creating a home-for-citizenship program that some immigrants will find valuable.
Attacking the housing problem is attacking the problem at it's root, so have the most leverage.
Although US homes seem unaffordable right now, but to many immigrants, esp in Asia, our properties are quite cheap in their standards, so price won't be an issue for them.
--
"The average American household" wealth is: $300K! Ooops... it has gone down to $250K.
Stats are dangerous in the hands of dopes.
Jas
I think the NYSE ought to break for a few minutes right before 3 PM for some sort of musical number a la MNF. Hank Williams Jr. (or preferably Faith Hill) belting out "Are you ready for some PPT?" seems like it would set the appropriate mood for the last hour shenanigans.
And DOWN the stretch they come:
3pm quotes:
SPX -9, INDU -38
Basel Two writes:
"You've basically described Western Europe, except replace the Latinos with the Poles, Hungarians, etc.
Basel Too | 10.27.08 - 2:56 pm | # "
One more question, Basel Two: in Santa Cruz, the old working class left town, went inland in California or elsewhere in the States where their kind of jobs paid enough to afford housing. What happens to these guys in Europe?
"Are you ready for some PPT?"
awesome.
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (HK) plans to enter receivership
Business Week Online > File Not Found
"Are you ready for some PPT?"
It's a 3pm party....
Hank and Al and Ben... going get it started...
Overlay this chart with the national average 30y FRM?
I wasn't born yet, but weren't rates extremely high in 81 and 82, when sales were most depressed. Even with low rates we aren't selling.
Civil Unrest:
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Protesters entered the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on Monday, shouting slogans and waving banners denouncing financial markets.
scared in pa does have a good point about people bringing cash with them to invest. Still, it seems structuring the deal to ensure the goals would be difficult. On the other hand, the efforts made so far would appear to be hopelessy misdirected, so this idea is far better than those.
That's not so bad, Barley. It's when "civil unrest becomes "uncivil" unrest that things start to get truly interesting.
Thank God the tax payers came through!
Oct 27 (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co Inc:
DECLARES DIVIDENDS ON COMMON AND PREFERRED STOCKS
SETS REGULAR QUARTERLY DIVIDEND OF $0.35 PER SHARE
Am I going to get my MariaO today?
Markets will finish up 4-5% today. Unless they don't.
Markets will finish up 4-5% today. Unless they don't.
Now is a great time to buy or sell stocks.
It's fun watching major world currencies trade like micro-caps.
And if you are a businessman involved in the global economy it gives you a heart attack.
set Time Scale to weekly:
http://www.netdania.com/Products/FinanceChart21/FinanceChart-2-1.asp?symbol=EURJPY|netdania_fxa&name=EUR/JPY
Wanna buy a hedge?
yes, zimbabwe is currently the best performing stock market.
this is because people buy assets to preserve value of wealth in times of inflation.
Our time will come, the fed knows that. But it is self-fulfilling. people must beleive inflation is imminent to do that. right now we have exactly the opposit, so the feds actions are meaningless, just like in the jap case.
RE: "Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (HK) plans to enter receivership"
So much for KK's contribution to fine cuisine.
the old working class left town, went inland in California or elsewhere in the States where their kind of jobs paid enough to afford housing.
I don't actually live in Europe, but get first hand accounts from my uncle, who's lived their 30+ years. From what understand, gentrification wasn't all bad except in extreme places (Barcelona, London, etc) because it is Western Europe (e.g. really generous safety net)
"Barley writes:
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (HK) plans to enter receivership"
Donuts are a poor match against a good steamed pork bun.
I know this idea has flaws, but if you guys (one of the smartest bunch in this crisis watch) agree that it has a shot at actually helping us solve the global finance crisis, I would submit it to the congressman and hope it floats up to be debated.
It may not just be plain talk in that case. Also, it has very little upfront cost from the govt, and little administration fee, unlike all our bailouts so far.
Isn't it cute how the DOW keeps prairie dogging into positive territory while everything else stays red?
Eric, not the spammer writes:
"And DOWN the stretch they come"
I wish they would just bring out the white tent and end this thing...
I wish they would just bring out the white tent and end this thing...
LMFAO.
Anyone notice how easy it is to wax philisophical abaout markets when you deal with OPM. Further proof that parasites don't sweat.
Hmmm... last I recall consumer debt to income ratios were around 130%, near historic highs after rising dramatically since the early 80s
is that per capita? Cause for those of us no debt to 150K + income....
or maybe 20K car loan...
how high under are the ones that do have debt?
Bob Dobbs writes:
"Barley writes:
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. (HK) plans to enter receivership"
Donuts are a poor match against a good steamed pork bun.
Nooooo! This might mean Americans get trim!
On topic,
I'm seeing coworkers jumping in to buy at today's bargain prices because they know that it will be the best return. Discussions on cash flow... irrelevant! Ugh... 2009 is going to fleece a lot of Sheeple.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
For grins check out the new highs on the NASDAQ...
Market Overview - Yahoo
Brontide writes:
I think you overestimate how quickly people will take profits out of an upswing in the market.
Brontide | 10.27.08 - 1:12 pm
popeye writes:
Brontide,
I don't think folks will take profits that fast - there is no resistance overhead.
popeye | 10.27.08 - 1:15 pm
Another popeye?
buffet's shooting fish in a barrel, yee-hah! 8500 go
Oh, look. The other little rascals are poking their heads out, too.
If this market were at all logical, the invisible hand would play whack-a-mole with the indices going into the close. Not likely in the world we actually live in. DJI +200 at 4PM anyone?
Scared in PA,
Your idea would destroy national security. What better way for a hostile terrorist organization or sovereign nation to seed the US with sleeper cells.
China could also buy up an industry in a certain area and then buy up all empty housing in the area. Send some of their unemployed here and start taking advantage of their dollar reserves.
Just a couple issues. I'm sure you could overcome those with the right legislation. Instead of contacting your congress person I would recommend contacting the Chinese embassy and get them working on it. Better and faster results.
The banksters continue their large-scale redistribution of wealth:
Banks exploit legal loophole to seize homes - Times Online
@ "if you guys (one of the smartest bunch in this crisis watch) agree that it has a shot at actually helping us solve the global finance crisis, I would submit it to the congressman"
Already tried that leading up to the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008. They passed it anyway. I sold what little long positions I had left that Friday. At least someone had the good sense to sneak in equity injections, except that we're still not getting preferred, voting shares, and there's no conditions that the bailed out banks have to lend out our money again. Stupid, stupid.
The only thing left is full-up nationalization, complete with wiping out any zombie banks and corporations and their shareholders, and firing the boards of any bank that needs a bailout.
This cartoon gets at the heart of the problem. Congress can't fix this alone.
are the bad boys selling again? volume not to hot today either
LOL!!
According to the Investor Section of the BB&T website:
"BB&T Corporation, headquartered in Winston-Salem, NC, is a fast growing, highly profitable financial holding company"
Then there is this:
BB&T TO PARTICIPATE IN U.S. TREASURY PROGRAM
SAYS WILL RECEIVE $3.1 BILLION FROM A GOVERNMENT CAPITAL INFUSION PLAN
SAYS U.S. TREASURY WILL RECEIVE SHARES OF BB&T PREFERRED STOCK AT A 5 PERCENT ANNUAL DIVIDEND RATE FOR FIRST 5 YEARS
And then there is this, maybe in tomorrows news:
BB&T to enhance it's quarterly dividend
There is a chance we may have been forming a bear flag this last 2 days which resolution may lead to a test of the 2002 lows (also would coincide with the resolution of a triangle on 60 min. charts SPX) target 775 regio
Wal-Mart U.S. to cut FY 2010 capital spending from FY2008
We need strong leaders to get us out of this mess. First off, tell Americans that they can't buy everything they want and need to save. Such leaders would be disposed of quickly for more optimistic ones.
Stratonovich calculus,
Liked this one more.
The Ink Tank: a daily roundup of editorial cartoons - Boston.com
I don't get the technical analysis of this situation... We are truly on terra incognito.
Such leaders would be disposed of quickly for more optimistic ones.
Remember Carter?
it's mourning in amerika
Well looks like Iceland missed its bond payments.
must be an accounting error
Well that rally was fun for 2.5 hours!
What to do with the rest of the day... hummm.....
.......
another day, another lower low.
CR - Thanks for including the normalization to number of housing units!
Also, regarding the IRX (3 month yield) versus the Fed Funds Rate - the IRX generally runs 0.25 to 0.75% lower than the Fed Funds Rate.
An IRX matching the FFT leads to either an FFT rate hike or an imminent decline of the IRX. An IRX too far below the FFT tends to signal a Fed rate cut.
Whether the IRX leads the Fed's policy moves, or the Fed "jawbones" the IRX in the direction the Fed wants to go, is a subject entirely unto itself...
Inquiring readers can check out the various threads studying the IRX-FFT relationship posted by Foxymoron over in TickerForum, e.g.
http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=31953&ord=323188#323188
I am no longer posting on TickerForum (Denninger rants too strongly for my taste) but I found some of the independent-investor research posted there was quite useful.
a, great cartoon!
I'm seeing coworkers jumping in to buy at today's bargain prices because they know that it will be the best return. Discussions on cash flow... irrelevant! Ugh... 2009 is going to fleece a lot of Sheeple.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Unless they can stick together for a good solid six months... A giant band of idiots can make a pretty big impact for finite periods of time! (Now I sound like Jas)
....
late afternoon cialis wearing off, or are we going to give it another go above the red line?
Overhead? It think what popeye is forgetting is we have no bottom on the market. It's bleeding to death and people need cash. Until we stop the blood loss no rally can survive more than a day before people will cash out.
DJI periscope remaining above water, but the rest of the U-Boat is prepped for dive.
It's a SPACE JAM....
A Toles cartoon.
Well I guess that's the bottom, then.
I think so BTW that Ross Westgate is one handsome bloke
BB&T is an online banking bank...I call this bullshit...
""Spaceball One. They've gone to plaid!""
"Kryten, go to red alert!"
"Are you sure sir? It does mean changing the bulb."
late afternoon cialis wearing off, or are we going to give it another go above the red line?
Oh yeah I can feel it coming. Speaking of which do you think the FED will give us a whole point?
I'm seeing coworkers jumping in to buy at today's bargain prices because they know that it will be the best return. Discussions on cash flow... irrelevant! Ugh... 2009 is going to fleece a lot of Sheeple.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
This is precisely why capitulation is years away. Everybody and his uncle is now a market timer in every asset class.
Instead of thinking about growing the pie, everybody is just tryin' to "get mine". Until that mentality is wrung from the market, the bottom will be elusive.
@Basel Too: Flip the chart upside down, and it's a nice clean parabolic topping pattern. I am trading as if we're in a low-volume retest that will eventually fail and generate a strong reversal of the recent trend.
But, because it's still possible we're about to extend the prior run for another round, I haven't put all my chips in yet.
My money is on the reversal, at about 20% of available capital.
While some of the other markets are hitting new lows, the SP500 is still holding above the 839.80 low, and every day that it does hold, the odds of the reversal become more likely.
Speaking of which do you think the FED will give us a whole point?
I wish they'd be honest.... end the meeting with "we're not going to give you a rate.... just watch the market, and that's what the target is".
It's not like the actual rate has been close to the target anyways.
Down periscope.
FED will give a point, but he will be wearing protection
"This is precisely why capitulation is years away. Everybody and his uncle is now a market timer in every asset class."
safe_as_apartments | 10.27.08 - 3:40 pm | #
Is that the consensus on CR comments? We won't see a rapid collapse but a few years of steadily eroding country?
wait Buffet's getting the money clip out of his back pocket
NYSE = -105.39 (1.94%)
wait Buffet's getting the money clip out of his back pocket
That's just for the margin call on his naked puts.
Buffett is going to get slaughtered by this downturn. It was nice knowing him.
Looking at the bright side of the graph, I don't see any blue bar on the last data point. Can this be attributed to Republicans saving our economy? I guess it will be time to build new homes after McCain's inauguration. And with Sarah, I swear she winked at me! I mean, I suddenly sat a little straighter when she did that during the debates.
You think I'm a stupid, low-information voter, huh? Darn tootin' you betcha!
a,
I don't think it is consensus; it is just my opinion. IMHO, a large portion of the populace are essentially willing and eager asset-class gamblers.
No society lasts for long when everybody is trying "to pick the bottom". If that is the most productive work out there, heaven help us.
@safe_as_apartments: "Instead of thinking about growing the pie, everybody is just tryin' to "get mine". Until that mentality is wrung from the market, the bottom will be elusive."
Actually, that's how the pie has always grown.
But I agree that there's still too much speculation. On the other hand, at the moment this is a trader's market and not yet clearly a buy-and-hold value-investing market.
But my research time is being spent thinking about what companies will be adding real value to the economy going forward, so that in the next wave I can trade my index swing plays for buy-and-hold investments in companies I can truly believe in.
Jes writes:
I agree with Jes. What exactly is accounting for those gianormous volume trades before 10a, 11a, and after 12p. They are just completely loco compared to the rest of the day.
Anyone got some insight?
Hey, who here ordered the pizza and the Iceland samurai bonds?
Is that the consensus on CR comments? We won't see a rapid collapse but a few years of steadily eroding country?
i cant speak for everybody, but thats how i see it playing out - no down limit day(s)- rather, death by one thousand paper cuts.
safe_as_apartments- Accurate assessment.
death by one thousand paper cuts.
or death by pecking of duck... AFLAC!
Actually, that's how the pie has always grown.
I don't know about that; though you quickly point out that there is too much speculation.
There is a difference between trying to "get mine" by coming up with a new widget and trying to "get mine" by fleecing somebody else. That's not a value-add operation, by my book.
Here comes the GET ME OUT herd.
Bailout up to $4 trillion and counting. yep, everything is a-ok and right on schedule.
That why I'm:
Totally OT -What's the best submarine movie around? Going to try to catch that in these uncertain geopolitical times.
This is the rally for We's rate cut.
Das Boot hands down.
I'd go with Hunt for Red October as second best.
sub movie: Das Boot
crimson tide was ok and Red october is a classic
Wholesale gasoline closed @ $1.46/gal. Just read on another blog that retail gas in my former state (OK) is under 2 bucks. It's still 80 cents higher in Central FL - but I don't care, don't buy the stuff, only burn it.
Hunt for Red October. Followed by Crimson Tide.
I would be more than willing to buy-and-hold, but the rules keep changing. For now I'm playing the in and out game looking to recover some of my losses over the past year ( liquidated to cash long before the worst of it ).
When there is real value in the market I would be happy to "grow th pie" but right now it seems insane to play that game while the rules are constantly being mucked with.
OMG Warren's hand has slipped, a cloud of C notes is spreading across the floor, the trader's are reacting like sharks to chum
Speed writes:
"We need strong leaders to get us out of this mess. First off, tell Americans that they can't buy everything they want and need to save."
What incentives does the Government ever provide to save? Its all about stimulus to save "jobs" (i.e. votes) with artificially depressed interest rates and inflationary programs. Krugmans are now in charge ("forget about the deficit") Government is pro-inflation and anti-wealth preservation. This is their way of "spreading it around"
What's the best submarine movie around?
Another vote for "Hunt for Red October". Sean Connery as a Russian sub captain with a Scottish accent. Brilliant !!
Das Boot is the penultimate submarine movie...
Das Boot is the penultimate submarine movie...
So which one's the best?
The original.
Dr. Rockso writes:
Das Boot is the penultimate submarine movie...
Dr. Rockso | 10.27.08 - 3:55 pm | #
Das Boot is the next-to-last submarine movie?
The original.
No, I meant, if Das Boot is the penultimate, which movie is the best.
Penultimate means "2nd best" or "next to last".
"Das Boot is the penultimate submarine movie"
Operation Petticoat is the ultimate.
For those keeping score, NYSE just put in a new low.
I am no longer posting on TickerForum (Denninger rants too strongly for my taste) but I found some of the independent-investor research posted there was quite useful
same here (which felt like deserting since I did read the Tickerforum from its very first days), but I have always appreciated KD; whether he rants or not (and who does not at times) he means well (if not always right as a trader... but again who does these days)
sub movie - The Incredible Mr. Limpet
Thanks guys for the recommendations. Will be sure to watch them. Haven't seen Das Boot yet i think.
cliffdiving at the end here
I like all the suggestions so far (Das Boot is the best), but don't forget this little gem:
Down Periscope (1996)
Zee Limpet!
The Incredible Mr. Limpet - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Don Knotts as the hero.
As far as credit drying up - I say bunk!
I get at least a half dozen unsolicited credit offers per week - mortgages, home equity, credit cards. No joke.
Here's the gig. Credit IS available, but only to credit worthy borrowers. In my view, credit markets HAVE returned to normal - borrowers are once again expected to be able to pay the loans back.
Credit crisis? What a sham.
das boot
there goes 860 on $SPX
o dear
Man, they are running for the exits!! Looks like they saw the economic numbers or heard Uncle Ben is not going to cut.
merciless:
Oddly enough I have seen Down Periscope. LOL.
all sell, no buy?
Basel Too writes:
I don't get the technical analysis of this situation... We are truly on terra incognito.
I don't think there is as much panic as people think, I think it is biz. a usual... just a bit more "elastic". The illusion of panic helps profitability
Das Boot is the best.
Also try "The Bedford Incident" with Richard Widmark
Assume Crash Positions! writes:
"Das Boot hands down."
Yes, but only the original (Deutsch) uncut version.
Seriously, why is MER allowed to give a dividend?
Didn't they get tax payer money?
It is hard to keep track... but if they received one cent of tax payer money, there should be no dividend. Period.
Where is the tax revolt?
Senator Ted Stephens - Guilty
Hank to PPT: job well done
At least I got to make my SKF @171 good today.
Free fallin...
Das Boot really is a masterpiece. CR readers know their sub movies
The credit crisis seems more like a wall street bonus crisis. We can't have THAT!
Apparently, in 2008, wall street firms have set aside 20% to 30% less than the record bonus pools of 2005 through 2007. Oh the horror.
Fire up the bailouts.
What a sham.
Eric: Penultimate = Das Remake
ananon...
As a former SSBN 628 guy... Das Boat in german with subtitles..
Next is either Hunt for RO...
Or periscope down with Kelsey Gramer HAHA
Eric: Penultimate = Das Remake
Heh.... I saw the original, uncut, in some indie theater in Manhattan long long ago.
It is a great film.
CR readers know their sub movies
Bah, hardly. Not a single one of them has seen "Incredible Mr. Limpet" or they'd have changed their recommendation.
Bah, hardly.
Did you see the B&W one? It's a masterpiece, even though Mr. Limpet was my favorite as a kid...
"Yes, but only the original (Deutsch) uncut version."
That's what I was talking about. Hadn't seen it until about 8 years ago when I got my Dad his first DVD player and the original cut of Das Boot on DVD as his first title (he was XO on a couple of diesel boats during 'Nam). Great movie.
Malcome X the Owl in the Middl writes:
"As a former SSBN 628 guy... Das Boat in german with subtitles.."
Yes, but get original released for Germany TV and not truncated version they released in U.S.
u-571 wasnt to bad
Here's an insight. Wall street firms need to thin the herd in a big way. To many of the current group of employees can no delude themselves or their clients via financial shams.
The plan is the same as always. Cut costs and bring in a new group of Ivy League neer-do-wells/believers/go-getters. Their belief in their own lies and fed malfeasance will ignite another boom.
Real savings and capital formation - NFW. We need booms. Big money in that.
What a sham.
Eric, not the spammer writes:
Eric: Penultimate = Das Remake
"Heh.... I saw the original, uncut, in some indie theater in Manhattan long long ago."
The theater was at 72nd & Amsterdam. Actually, that was a cut version. The re-released version is about 3 hours.
Malcome X the Owl in the Middl
SSBN 628. I was a yardbird at Newport News Shipyard in the late 60's. Believe 628 was there for refueling and overhaul.
I'd like to hear O-Joe's or Sebastian's recommendation; maybe Yellow Submarine?
The ATF says it has broken up a plot to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree.
In court records unsealed Monday, agents said they disrupted plans to rob a gun store and target an unnamed by predominantly African-American high school by two neo-Nazi skinheads.
Interesting Times writes:
Seriously, why is MER allowed to give a dividend?
A new take on Wealth Re-distribution.
Once upon a time Robin Hood was the hero.
Now, Hank is on stage to change the story line.
Not the bottom...wait for the next wave of resets next month and next year this time...there are a lot of refi's in the negative too, and they will not be in the positive for 10-20 years. It's like the "recovery" of the NASDAQ- ain't happening.
Re Das Boot,
Absolutely the 3 hour director's cut re-release in German with English subtitles. (I think the Original was an even longer German TV miniseries)
Or go back to the original book -- just amazing. Written by Lothar Gunther Buchheim. Completely different ending (not saying how).
Amazon.com: Das Boot: The Boat (9780304352319): Lothar-Günther Buchheim: Books
CRVIX strangely low
You asked for people to guess what sales were going to be for the year some time ago. It is looking like those who estimated on the low side will win. What was the prize going to be for the winner, by the way?