OC beach community pricing is finally cliff diving. Check out Redfin price per sqft in Newport. Laguna is showing similar weakness but hasn't stepped off the cliff yet...coming soon LB median of 1M
This guy looks like he's preparing for the long walk to thirteen steps. I wager he writes better, but he is not having a good time making this 'speech'. I know it's early but I need a drink. He should have one (or two) as well before his next speaking engagement.
Confess I haven't listened to Padilla's spiel here but I've read his column at the OC Register many a time and I find it unconvincing.
Yeah, lenders will try to make money off of borrowers. The sun will also rise tomorrow. From payday loan companies to giant banks lenders are not charities but no one ends up at a desk signing loan documents with a gun at their head either. Buying a house is not an impulse purchase. You have to spend considerable time and effort to end up in escrow.
Now there may have been an element of desperation in those engaged in MEWs but no one is desperate to buy a house. It is not as if the alternative
is living in a cardboard box.
It is hard to have any more sympathy for a distressed homebuyer than it is to be sympathetic to person who bought more car than they could afford. Sure the $60,000 car is nicer than the $20,000 compact and the car salesman is going to encourage you to buy the more expensive one but both will get you to where you need to go.
That was really painful to watch. He should have hired someone to play him on TV. I think we all pretty much know that the whole mess traces it self back to Ronald Reagan, and climaxes under the reign of his retarded stepchild George W. Bush.
The payday loan guys rank with drug dealers and pimps. They should be shot on sight. We should hunt them for sport.
They should be required to wear targets on their chest. We should implant GPS chips and loose the hounds on them.
side note: She's back, those eyes, she wants me, I just know it.
This time she won't run screaming in the opposite direction when I make my patented smooth move.
Cynical Yes writes:
That was really painful to watch.
Oh yeah. When he asked for questions, I felt compassion for him. He should have said, "SO, that concludes the speech, if you'd be kind enough to wake the person next to you we can answer some questions."
The "more roads to housing bubble" paradox. Ya mean we can't just build em and walk away.
Spending Reserves
The Highway Trust fund, which gets 90 percent of revenue from federal gasoline levies, was depleted because Congress and President George W. Bush decided to spend down reserves. With motorists driving less for 10 consecutive months, tax receipts have also fallen.
``Relying on the gas tax is like relying on cardboard to keep the rain out; the longer you use it the less it works,'' U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters said in a statement Oct. 24.
Hi Yves,
I never got the chance to reply re: LOCs. To keep it short, LOCs are separate from the financing often attached with them.
While this may be true for many, if a homeowner got their primary residence reappraised as a part of the deal, then isn't the primary residence attached as recourse liability for the privilege?
It brought back memories of myself during public speaking. GAWD.. I still get nervous thinking about it. Some have a knack for PS but I for one rather chase rats in a haunted house then get up in front of people and talk.
what a "subprime audience" the GOOG people were?! 25% only knew who Mozilo was erc... and no questions-discussion ??
a bit surprising, their natural "curiosity" must be very polarized
serf Alan Greenspend writes:
I'm trying to get a handle on the TIP yield crossing the Comparible 5 yr treasury.
Jesse over at Jesse's Cafe Americain noticed it too and has posted on it. I am attaching the link. There are also a couple of ohter interesting posts (1) on possible selective US debt defaults and (2) gold lease rates.
For specific socal housing info (San Diego), the piggington.com link is good, though he posts less now that he's gone private with his advice. His bloggers are a bit "provincial". Thats where I started financial blogging and found calculated risk several years ago.
This guy tends to state the obvious in his OCR articles. For CR readers, this guy is absolutely worthless for keeping up with real-time changes happening with the RE market in OC.
Wait until the rest of "dismal" earnings trickle then flood in.
Let's see how '09 earnings do after a prolonged slump/crash.
Then let us see how OC and the rest of the country handles housing prices and foreclosures.
If the fundamentals weren't so out of whack, I'd agree with CR that inventory peaked in SEPT and would decline slowly until 2012-2015. But I think we will see another peak in 2009, let's say SEPT.
A second peak would be mitigated by massive government backing to keep people in houses, rewrite mortgage terms to zero, and suspend foreclosures indefinitely...followed by national rebranding campaign-- ZimbAMRIKA!
Also remember that TIPS always pay off at a minimum of par - so even in a deflationary scenario a $100 bond still matures at $100. Thus they can serve as a deflationary hedge as well as an inflationary one. I guess that helps to explain the bump in demand ...
The equity and debt markets are so violently screwy right now, I don't think you can make much of charts like that. All it really shows is that things are screwy.
It's the difference between your credit card limit being capped and another bank not accepting a cheque from your bank
EvilHenryPaulson
Im in the 98%, not Mensa, but Densa.
I'm trying to wrap my head round what you're saying and ain't getting it. Could you shine a bit of sparkle on this for my edification? Use small words and speak slowly. :-/
Ellen Kimball,For San Rafael real estate info I would go to the "DQ News" California City chart,and "Marin Real Estate Bubble".YoY in september it was bellyflopping.
I think the tale of woe staring GM, GMAC and Chrysler is going to be blockbuster soon. It may even be a double feature with "Honey! Who stole my Pension!" Rockem Sockem action! Coming to a kitchen near you!
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- General Motors reported sharply lower global sales as weakness in the nation's leading automaker's domestic sales spread to overseas markets.
GM (GM, Fortune 500) reported that overall sales were down 11.4% worldwide in the third quarter compared to the same period a year earlier.
That was a much steeper decline than the 2.9% drop seen in first half of the year.
European sales, which had been up 2.8% in the first half of the year, plunged 12% in the quarter, while the Asian Pacific region saw sales slow to a 2.6% growth rate from nearly 10% growth in the first half of the year.
North America, GM's home market, had already been weak, with sales down 15.3% in the first half of the year, but its sales weakened even further in the third quarter, dropping nearly 19% compared to a year earlier.
He has had the best coverage of Downey Savings, and uncovered a lot of dirt on them. I would like to know what he thinks about less than 100 people have been helped out of foreclosure by the 'Hope for Homeowners' program - AND NONE OF THE MAJOR LENDERS ARE PARTICIPATING:
I have a pretty high tolerance for dull speaking styles as long as the speaker is talking about things that are interesting to me, so I actually really enjoyed this. And I'm not somebody who knows much about finance, so I learned a lot.
I did not enjoy the questioner at the end who wanted to get rid of the FDIC. I guess that's why they call 'em glibertarians.
Ugh....he loses me as soon as he says the housing bubble had nothing to do with Fannie and Freddie, that it's all Wall Street, which manufactured subprime.
The problem isn't limited to subprime first of all.
Secondly, Fan and Fred have hundreds of billions of subprime and other toxic crap on their balance sheet (just read their 10-Ks)
And even if they were writing only pristine mortgages, they were doing it off a capital base of virtually zero (after you back out deferred tax assets), virtually guaranteeing that one day they would blow up.
And of course they encouraged the overcapitalization of the American economy via housing.
He has a point that they're hardly the only culprits in the financial crisis, but absolving them completely is a bit off the mark.
Matt may not be the most riveting speaker, but his writing is light years ahead of "the market has turned" Jon Lansner from the same OC paper. That guy can't wait to hear more rosey news from some OC RE industry shill. Plus, Matt is writing for a newspaper, not for some wonky blog for wonks like us. Nice to see him get some credit.
firsth
only tacos....huh?
second ?
ok, third....
I had to wake up for this.
emoro uno!
damn halo!
Couldn't resist.
Whew! Good thing I'm a fast listener. Now I can get back to bed.
CR, seriously, thanks for posting Padilla. I'm sure he'll be good with morning coffee.
First?
No relation to Jose Padilla the alleged terrorist, I presume...
José Padilla (prisoner) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Just kidding, of course.
EK
OC beach community pricing is finally cliff diving. Check out Redfin price per sqft in Newport. Laguna is showing similar weakness but hasn't stepped off the cliff yet...coming soon LB median of 1M
I've read a lot about different California communities, but can anyone tell me what is happening in Marin County (San Rafael area)?
I can't seem to locate any real information about the area. Perhaps you can help.
Thanks so much.
EK
Nemo sleepo ho ho ho.
15 minutes into this thing, I'm still wondering when it's going to get better.
This guy looks like he's preparing for the long walk to thirteen steps. I wager he writes better, but he is not having a good time making this 'speech'. I know it's early but I need a drink. He should have one (or two) as well before his next speaking engagement.
Confess I haven't listened to Padilla's spiel here but I've read his column at the OC Register many a time and I find it unconvincing.
Yeah, lenders will try to make money off of borrowers. The sun will also rise tomorrow. From payday loan companies to giant banks lenders are not charities but no one ends up at a desk signing loan documents with a gun at their head either. Buying a house is not an impulse purchase. You have to spend considerable time and effort to end up in escrow.
Now there may have been an element of desperation in those engaged in MEWs but no one is desperate to buy a house. It is not as if the alternative
is living in a cardboard box.
It is hard to have any more sympathy for a distressed homebuyer than it is to be sympathetic to person who bought more car than they could afford. Sure the $60,000 car is nicer than the $20,000 compact and the car salesman is going to encourage you to buy the more expensive one but both will get you to where you need to go.
@ Unit472
I guess it depends on who you view the victim as.
I agree that the asshat who bought in deeper than he could afford deserves no sympathy.
But the person whose neighbourhood is full of forclosures because of a bunch of asshats who got loans when they shouldn't have is another story.
That was really painful to watch. He should have hired someone to play him on TV. I think we all pretty much know that the whole mess traces it self back to Ronald Reagan, and climaxes under the reign of his retarded stepchild George W. Bush.
The payday loan guys rank with drug dealers and pimps. They should be shot on sight. We should hunt them for sport.
They should be required to wear targets on their chest. We should implant GPS chips and loose the hounds on them.
side note: She's back, those eyes, she wants me, I just know it.
This time she won't run screaming in the opposite direction when I make my patented smooth move.
Cynical Yes writes:
That was really painful to watch.
Oh yeah. When he asked for questions, I felt compassion for him. He should have said, "SO, that concludes the speech, if you'd be kind enough to wake the person next to you we can answer some questions."
This is fascinating.
The "more roads to housing bubble" paradox. Ya mean we can't just build em and walk away.
Spending Reserves
The Highway Trust fund, which gets 90 percent of revenue from federal gasoline levies, was depleted because Congress and President George W. Bush decided to spend down reserves. With motorists driving less for 10 consecutive months, tax receipts have also fallen.
``Relying on the gas tax is like relying on cardboard to keep the rain out; the longer you use it the less it works,'' U.S. Transportation Secretary Mary Peters said in a statement Oct. 24.
Anon, sort of like how the demoKrats arranged for social security...ah "The Great Society". The Great Ponzi Scheme.
As pension troubles will be an ongoing theme of this housing-led crisis,
Hi Yves,
I never got the chance to reply re: LOCs. To keep it short, LOCs are separate from the financing often attached with them.
In Canada, there is also a good story giving some warning of pension issues to come. This is coming to light primarily because there is a law in Canada to force pension obligations to be fully funded
Canada: Companies launch behind-the-scenes lobbying effort for temporary reprieve from pension funding obligations
please ignore that extra irrelevant copy&paste at the beginning of my last post
Hi Yves,
I never got the chance to reply re: LOCs. To keep it short, LOCs are separate from the financing often attached with them.
While this may be true for many, if a homeowner got their primary residence reappraised as a part of the deal, then isn't the primary residence attached as recourse liability for the privilege?
Volker the Viking,
the distinction that LOCs are separate from financing is crucial to reporting on them.
It's the difference between your credit card limit being capped and another bank not accepting a cheque from your bank
I'm trying to get a handle on the TIP yield crossing the Comparible 5 yr treasury.
is that a change in sovereign debt buying, did they get an appetite for agencies? it's too early for inflation concerns.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SQfdTB8LVVI/AAAAAAAAGNM/eGJGBU0p7Jc/s1600-h/tips.png
Is this guy Latino or Filipino?
Yeah, that was painful to watch.
It brought back memories of myself during public speaking. GAWD.. I still get nervous thinking about it. Some have a knack for PS but I for one rather chase rats in a haunted house then get up in front of people and talk.
what a "subprime audience" the GOOG people were?! 25% only knew who Mozilo was erc... and no questions-discussion ??
a bit surprising, their natural "curiosity" must be very polarized
serf Alan Greenspend writes:
I'm trying to get a handle on the TIP yield crossing the Comparible 5 yr treasury.
Jesse over at Jesse's Cafe Americain noticed it too and has posted on it. I am attaching the link. There are also a couple of ohter interesting posts (1) on possible selective US debt defaults and (2) gold lease rates.
Jesse's Café Américain
For specific socal housing info (San Diego), the piggington.com link is good, though he posts less now that he's gone private with his advice. His bloggers are a bit "provincial". Thats where I started financial blogging and found calculated risk several years ago.
This guy tends to state the obvious in his OCR articles. For CR readers, this guy is absolutely worthless for keeping up with real-time changes happening with the RE market in OC.
Tim writes:
Is this guy Latino or Filipino?
Wah?
i'm not a bond guy, but the only purpose of TIPS is to hedge against the consumer price index, which is it's benchmark.
we're clearly in a deflationary mode, yet the volume of TIPS buying is quite large. anyone know the yield differential for this and the 5 yr off hand?
OT,
GM notes global sales down 11% for 4th quarter.
Wait until the rest of "dismal" earnings trickle then flood in.
Let's see how '09 earnings do after a prolonged slump/crash.
Then let us see how OC and the rest of the country handles housing prices and foreclosures.
If the fundamentals weren't so out of whack, I'd agree with CR that inventory peaked in SEPT and would decline slowly until 2012-2015. But I think we will see another peak in 2009, let's say SEPT.
A second peak would be mitigated by massive government backing to keep people in houses, rewrite mortgage terms to zero, and suspend foreclosures indefinitely...followed by national rebranding campaign-- ZimbAMRIKA!
Alan G,
The entire TIPS yield curve can be found @ the WSJ "free site":
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
Also remember that TIPS always pay off at a minimum of par - so even in a deflationary scenario a $100 bond still matures at $100. Thus they can serve as a deflationary hedge as well as an inflationary one. I guess that helps to explain the bump in demand ...
sterlingerl,
The equity and debt markets are so violently screwy right now, I don't think you can make much of charts like that. All it really shows is that things are screwy.
Nostrovia,
Note on large volume on TIPS:
Volatility and flight to perceived safety.
Villagers have huddled into the local church to escape the machete wielding militia.
/ends badly
thanks mook! did not know they were also a deflationary hedge.
It's the difference between your credit card limit being capped and another bank not accepting a cheque from your bank
EvilHenryPaulson
Im in the 98%, not Mensa, but Densa.
I'm trying to wrap my head round what you're saying and ain't getting it. Could you shine a bit of sparkle on this for my edification? Use small words and speak slowly. :-/
thanks mook! did not know they were also a deflationary hedge.
Ditto!! Cool...
Ellen Kimball,For San Rafael real estate info I would go to the "DQ News" California City chart,and "Marin Real Estate Bubble".YoY in september it was bellyflopping.
Note that, as with Treasuries, if you pay above par for TIPS in a deflationary period, your entire principal will not be returned.
aah, so TIPS will be popular until they also lose money.
got glod?
new thread and boy only 162 visitors, like the old days...
For such a "strong" market it's sure fighting hard to go green.
Get out of prison and get a job!? The nerve of those people.
He comes off as arrogant the entire lecture.
I think the tale of woe staring GM, GMAC and Chrysler is going to be blockbuster soon. It may even be a double feature with "Honey! Who stole my Pension!" Rockem Sockem action! Coming to a kitchen near you!
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- General Motors reported sharply lower global sales as weakness in the nation's leading automaker's domestic sales spread to overseas markets.
GM (GM, Fortune 500) reported that overall sales were down 11.4% worldwide in the third quarter compared to the same period a year earlier.
That was a much steeper decline than the 2.9% drop seen in first half of the year.
European sales, which had been up 2.8% in the first half of the year, plunged 12% in the quarter, while the Asian Pacific region saw sales slow to a 2.6% growth rate from nearly 10% growth in the first half of the year.
North America, GM's home market, had already been weak, with sales down 15.3% in the first half of the year, but its sales weakened even further in the third quarter, dropping nearly 19% compared to a year earlier.
Yentervention coming to a market near you...
He has had the best coverage of Downey Savings, and uncovered a lot of dirt on them. I would like to know what he thinks about less than 100 people have been helped out of foreclosure by the 'Hope for Homeowners' program - AND NONE OF THE MAJOR LENDERS ARE PARTICIPATING:
No Hope for Homeowners – Foreclosure Prevention Program Falters « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
How much more abuse are we going to take?
I have a pretty high tolerance for dull speaking styles as long as the speaker is talking about things that are interesting to me, so I actually really enjoyed this. And I'm not somebody who knows much about finance, so I learned a lot.
I did not enjoy the questioner at the end who wanted to get rid of the FDIC. I guess that's why they call 'em glibertarians.
I agree with you Buskertype. I enjoyed the talk and try to read Padilla's column on a regular basis. I'm kind of surprised at the reaction here on CR.
Nothing dull about this dude.
What do you want, Don Lapre?
OK, I watched the entire clip.
It was a good presentation all around.
Some of you dudes are whiners.
I bet many of you fidget constantly.
Ugh....he loses me as soon as he says the housing bubble had nothing to do with Fannie and Freddie, that it's all Wall Street, which manufactured subprime.
The problem isn't limited to subprime first of all.
Secondly, Fan and Fred have hundreds of billions of subprime and other toxic crap on their balance sheet (just read their 10-Ks)
And even if they were writing only pristine mortgages, they were doing it off a capital base of virtually zero (after you back out deferred tax assets), virtually guaranteeing that one day they would blow up.
And of course they encouraged the overcapitalization of the American economy via housing.
He has a point that they're hardly the only culprits in the financial crisis, but absolving them completely is a bit off the mark.
Thanks, CR. I enjoyed it as well.
Matt may not be the most riveting speaker, but his writing is light years ahead of "the market has turned" Jon Lansner from the same OC paper. That guy can't wait to hear more rosey news from some OC RE industry shill. Plus, Matt is writing for a newspaper, not for some wonky blog for wonks like us. Nice to see him get some credit.
Matthew, you have good data but you need to work on your presentation!!