I'd love to see the conventional loans broken up into yr fixed (15,30,40) and ARM type (IO, NegAm). I think that'd be interesting to see, especially during the height of the bubble.
It's all hot air - they want the good press, but don't care about actual results. One month later, only 79 people have been helped out of the 400k the H4H program was supposed to help:
Tomorrow, the Commerce Department will probably report that the economy shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the most since the 2001 recession, economists predict.
The Fed will be very aggressive,'' said Mark Gertler, a New York University economist and research co-author with Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.Inflation risks are off the table'' and ``the issue now is how bad the recession will be.''
Fascinating account of a scrap metal trader kidnapped in China by the company he was doing business with. This is explosive news, due to both the particulars of this case, and the possibility that things in China are far worse than we've been lead to believe. Read the whole thing.
"The last straw will be when Hugo Chavez is too big to fail, and we nationalize him."
We did a lot of "nationalizing" of unfriendly regimes down in Latin America in the '50s, '60s, and '70s. Usually our new management team was worse than the old guys.
The problem with Hugo Chavez is that we no longer have the political capital in Latin America to "nationalize" anybody -- nor should we.
There is no question what is coming in 2009, with Democrats in complete control. There will be an indefinite moratorium on all foreclosures. At first it will be 'six months' or so, but sure to be stretched out. I'm hearing all kinds of chatter in Democrat corners suggesting that foreclosures are now the 'Iraq War' of the party.
I leave it to the economists to decide what this will do. I suspect borrowing costs will skyrocket, making deflation all the more likely and putting more people 'underwater'. I also suspect that the Government would try to compensate the ensuing bank losses with bigger loan facilities. In other words, what we used to call 'socialism.
I am positive that conditions in China are a lot worse than we are aware...re link on kidnapping. We don't hear about a lot because of censorship. A Chinese who was taking pictures of structures ruined in the earthquake to complain about shoddy construction was shipped to a re-education camp. You can Google it. The Chinese populace has been pacified/cowed by economic growth in recent years...when that goes away there are a lot of underlying issues that have been suppressed.
Counter-trend bounce in commodities - bound to happen. If it had occurred over 5-7 days with increasing volume followed by a light volume pull back I might believe it. But when you get these viscious moves in short periods, I've learned to be very skeptical.
ades,
If you go to FT Alphaville, they posted yesterday a detailed analysis of the VW situation by an analyst from a company called Sanford Bernstein. The FT piece describes in detail how hedge funds were shorting VW but didn't know until a couple of days ago that Porsche controlled 75% of VW stock. When that fact got out, the shorts got killed by Porsche.
Recently closed FHA loans will have a spike in foreclosures within 12-18 months. Even the upcoming refi'd cram downs will default becuase the borrowers are NOT credit worthy. Stupid program...stupid Gov't. DPA was putting welfare recipients into homes instead of Section 8. This housing mess has a way to go before it all comes to the surface. There is more bloodletting to come.
Commodities are flying across the board. The breadth tells you something.
The big commodities selloff may have been a blip caused mainly by speculation and deleveraging, not long-term sustainable demand.
Now, investors all over the world are looking at the alternative between owning paper and hard stuff. It's a no-brainer for a lot of them, especially outside the U.S.
Only in the U.S. is there such stubborn belief in paper, even now.
Commodities are flying across the board. The breadth tells you something.
Wheat has been growing steadily during this latest turmoil. Ben might be re-thinking inflation threat. He cuts 50 bp, IMO the DOW drops, greater cut, DOW rallies. We'll see in 2.5 hrs. Tic...Tic...Tic
I did an analysis last night to figure out what part of new silver (mine output) has been absorbed by ETFs.
Since silver and mixed PM ETFs were introduced a little over two years ago, I figure about 300-350 million ounces of bullion have gone into ETFs. Most of it, 220 million, is in SLV. That's about 20-25% of mine output over the same period.
It's a whole new source of demand in a market where supplies are tight. ETFs are absorbing an average of about 10-15 million ounces per month.
FHA only because people don't have a down payment, PMI companies won't go past 91% LTV, and concession limits are healthy for FHA loans.
What will be interesting to see is 2008 vintage FHA loan default rates come mid 2009. These will be full doc, full qualifying loans. That default rate will be the "tale of the tape".
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Condominium buyers can get more than granite countertops and penthouse views for $4.16 million in Manhattan's Chelsea neighborhood. If Barack Obama isn't elected president, they can get out of the deal.
Call it the Obama contingency. Buyers at the building called +aRt will be released from their purchase contract ``no questions asked'' should the Democratic candidate lose to John McCain on Nov. 4, said Erik Ekstein, president of Ekstein Development.
We've been trying to move some of our product, and one of the major stumbling blocks has been political,'' Ekstein said.This being New York, people are looking forward to his taking office,'' he said of Obama.
Some would-be buyers visited the building, discussed financing, and then said they feared a McCain presidency, Ekstein said.
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy lost a court case seeking to halt sales of a novelty voodoo kit that contained a doll in his likeness, needles and a guidebook.
The court in Paris in a ruling today rejected Sarkozy's claims that the doll made by K&B Publishers violated his exclusive right to control the use of his image.
The voodoo doll ``falls within the authorized boundaries of freedom of expression and humor,'' said Judge Isabelle Nicolle in her seven-page decision refusing to issue an emergency order banning the dolls.
Crewman writes:
Good article on gold and silver. If you believe that we are totally screwed! Funky URL La page est introuvable gold...43_Nathan_Lewis
Crewman | 10.29.08 - 12:32 pm | #
All of the gold/silver sites look so spammy. That is why I have such a hard time believing the hype.
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Ford Motor Credit, the finance arm of Ford Motor Co. ( F), said it had access to the U.S. Federal Reserve's new program to help cash- strapped companies meet their short-term funding needs.
"We have registered for the federal commercial paper program, and it is available for us to use if we choose to do so," spokeswoman Meredith Libbey said in an email. Libbey declined to provide further details pending third-quarter financial results scheduled for Nov. 7.
This guy was saying there was no housing bubble and his site is not spammy. How many main stream retail sites were warning about the problem before it happened? Look at this article he is encouraging people to go deeper in debt.
i did the NPR Marketplace interview, wasn't my best, they really just wanted a fluff piece for halloween. not sure what soundbites will survive, they were interviewing others.
came about our zombie banker rampage and bloodying the wall st bull -
All of the gold/silver sites look so spammy. That is why I have such a hard time believing the hype.
Plus that article is back from the BS fiasco in March. I think a lot has happened between then and now and until today, commodity prices for GLD & SLV have been flat or declining...
You should check out the latest Colbert Report. Neither major party is by any means socialist.
Realistically most "capitalist" countries are partly socialist. The fact that we collect taxes for social welfare programs, shared infrastructure, etc. is basically socialism.
The question is more where on the spectrum between socialism and capitalism is ideal in terms of the efficiency of the private sector vs. the public sector doing certain types of work as well as the burden of public spending on peoples individual initiative. People are primarily motivated by self-interest so if we take too much of their income for "the common good" we can actually harm the economy by reducing initiative thereby undermining "the common good".
The question isn't whether the candidates are socialist or capitalist -- they are clearly both.
The question is which direction do they want to push us along the capitalist/socialist spectrum, and whether or not that will ultimately be harmful or beneficial.
Massive short-covering on casinos today.
LVS up over 105% despite facing insolvency, MGM and WYNN up too ~ 30%
Also USD/CAD had a big drop and is about 2.5% down from multi-year highs
As Japan chooses the music, so the currencies+commodities dance at least for a while
Don't see much interesting going on. Mostly reordering of books prior to the FOMC and a coasting into next week. Market is definitely in a neutral state of mind, could go up or down through Friday but most likely sideways. Soon I will see if my no-fun (bear market rally) until after Hallowe'en call was correct or foolish.
I hope yogi got closed out JPY/USD when it was near 90
bearly writes:
If Obama wins we get an epic selloff with limit down closure of the markets. I took OTM SPY puts as insurance.
I see it exactly the opposite. Lack of confidence and credibility in the markets is it's greatest concern. McCain will do nothing to address that. Obama will. The markets arelike pets or children in the way that they want and need discipline in order to feel loved.
and a half hour version by a few participants, i'm not thrilled with but has some funny and naughty bits. parents with kids in college here should not watch, or folks with prudish minds.
by the way, we cleaned up the blood from the bull, art not vandalism. YouTube -
Of course eliminating DAPs would hurt sales in the short term. Just like eliminating theft would hurt the economy. When someone burglars a house they stimulate the economy of pawn shops and spend money themselves on consumption. Plus they force the person robbed from to buy replacement goods. Bush-style consumer driven economy at its finest.
Pissed Off In California
Congrats on getting while the getting was good. There are still a few phases to work through re: commodities, not the least of which will be disclosure of China's actual economy followed by some kind of direct stimulus from its reserves. The USD/CAD hasn't plunged by any means yet though and the upside remains very limited
BDiego, Theft does nothing to stimulate the economy. The money spent to replace the stolen goods comes by reducing spending on what would have been purchased instead. Plus the disruption effect diverts energy to nonproductive use of time.
The market hates uncertainty. When the election is over the uncertainty will be reduced and investors can more clearly forecast the future. Some money will then flow back in. We will see some short-term improvement in the stock market upon either candidate winning.
Eventually the fundamentals will rule the market again.
The president has very little influence on the economy. THis is especially true during the first year in office, as the fiscal budget for 2009 is determined by the outgoing administration.
DAPs were actually a very small part of the downpayments here in L.A. County, but nevertheless I'm glad to see they've gone away.
However, the uptick in FHA loans has more to do with the limits being raised and the requirements being loosened than it does with DAPs. For example, a buyer can have all of their downpayment supplied by parents, and doesn't have to have a particularly excellent credit score. Plus, even here in expensive So. Cal, a loan of $417,000 will buy you something decent (not in Bev Hills, of course).
30 day CP spread at 455 bps yesterday...
FRB Commercial Paper
I bet the real estate people are hating these movements in mortgage rates.
I'd love to see the conventional loans broken up into yr fixed (15,30,40) and ARM type (IO, NegAm). I think that'd be interesting to see, especially during the height of the bubble.
ac,
that last part of your chart posting reminds me of VTAC...
Lender of last resort.
Bank of last resort.
And we complain about Hugo Chavez nationalizing a key component of his economy?
It's all hot air - they want the good press, but don't care about actual results. One month later, only 79 people have been helped out of the 400k the H4H program was supposed to help:
No Hope for Homeowners – Foreclosure Prevention Program Falters « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
Helping homeowners is just political posturing. There is not help for us, just the bill!
mortgage rates
Rob Dawg writes:
Lender of last resort.
Bank of last resort.
And we complain about Hugo Chavez nationalizing a key component of his economy?
The last straw will be when Hugo Chavez is too big to fail, and we nationalize him.
/ef
Is anyone having technical issues with Fidelity? I can't see any of my accounts. I have called them and I am on hold.
Mr. Ted moving up again.
2.79
This just in:
Market prices in Volatility, demonstrated by...
My little indicator of the health of apirational buyers of overpriced totally discretionary items - WSM
Williams-Sonoma slashes outlook, leading sector lower - MarketWatch
Yeah - having trouble with Fidelity.
Still haven't gotten through on the phone.
Anyone else?
Fidelity is back up. The rep told everything at Fidelity was down..their internal and external systems.
May be PPT was testing shuting down the entire market( Only half joking:)
Fidelity seems to be working fine for me.
Fid works ok for me
Fidelity
Just logged in.
All accounts there.
DAPs have been eliminated (finally!) as of Oct 1st.
Ah, maybe this is why there hasn't been as many homebuilder BKs as some people expected.
Just spoke with Fidelity rep. Said systems were down. Now back up. Working here.
Tomorrow, the Commerce Department will probably report that the economy shrank at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the most since the 2001 recession, economists predict.
The Fed will be very aggressive,'' said Mark Gertler, a New York University economist and research co-author with Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.Inflation risks are off the table'' and ``the issue now is how bad the recession will be.''
From Bloomberg, this a.m.
How the hell is WSM a surprise to anyone now?
$1200 for a 6 piece cookware set?
Comrade Beach--last thread you posted this:
Citigroup, Credit Suisse Link Loans to Swaps in Shift (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
This seems to be a big story. Do you know if there a way to follow which companies are subjected to this?
"The last straw will be when Hugo Chavez is too big to fail, and we nationalize him."
It's happened before.
TGT or at least Pershing Square, a hedge fund that owns about 10% of TGT, is also toying with a new financing scheme for TGT owned real estate.
Background:
Expired
Details of the proposal are to be discussed in a webcast set for 1:30 PM today. You have to register to access it, but it's free.
Link to webcast:
Pershing Square Capital Management Presentation Registration Page
Am I the only one who can't decide whether or not the market will go up 500 or down 500 today? Maybe they just cancel each other out and were at zero.
Fascinating account of a scrap metal trader kidnapped in China by the company he was doing business with. This is explosive news, due to both the particulars of this case, and the possibility that things in China are far worse than we've been lead to believe. Read the whole thing.
Scrap Trader Kidnapped, Held for Ransom in Ningbo
"The last straw will be when Hugo Chavez is too big to fail, and we nationalize him."
We did a lot of "nationalizing" of unfriendly regimes down in Latin America in the '50s, '60s, and '70s. Usually our new management team was worse than the old guys.
The problem with Hugo Chavez is that we no longer have the political capital in Latin America to "nationalize" anybody -- nor should we.
You can see some charts regarding the concentration of FHA, conventional, and VA financing in a local CA market here:
Effective Demand: Ventura County June & July 2008 down payment size
(there are a few more similiar posts of previous months on the blog as well)
You can see the loans I believe are going to be eliminated soon or are already going away here:
Effective Demand: What loans are in danger of going away?
food futures flying
Scrap Trader Kidnapped, Held for Ransom in Ningbo
Max | Homepage | 10.29.08 - 11:30 am
Thank you. An interesting link and story.
CR,
Great graphs! You're a macolyte right? What program is this? (Oh yea the analysis was pretty good too!
)
As always great work!
~
Whoopee, the Fed is going to give more money away. That should do the trick.
Nostrovia,
ades,
Nemoroo uno, from way earlier...LOL
Nostrovia,
There is no question what is coming in 2009, with Democrats in complete control. There will be an indefinite moratorium on all foreclosures. At first it will be 'six months' or so, but sure to be stretched out. I'm hearing all kinds of chatter in Democrat corners suggesting that foreclosures are now the 'Iraq War' of the party.
I leave it to the economists to decide what this will do. I suspect borrowing costs will skyrocket, making deflation all the more likely and putting more people 'underwater'. I also suspect that the Government would try to compensate the ensuing bank losses with bigger loan facilities. In other words, what we used to call 'socialism.
slv up 10.5%. what dat about
Misean,
i had been waiting to use that one. I thought I nailed it! damn haloscan! LOL!
"In other words, what we used to call 'socialism.'"
You should check out the latest Colbert Report. Neither major party is by any means socialist.
Also, when I went looking for a home loan recently the people I talked to said a majority of their loans were FHA.
3% down? With home values falling. These loans will be underwater before they sign the paperwork.
On yet another unrelated note:
Does anyone have a good article about this whole porche / VW thing. I've only seen bits explained from visitors?
TIA!
I just want the fed to get it over with and cut to ZERO so we can get the hyperinflationary depression rolling already.
This foreplay is getting old. I want them to stick it to us already.
from 50 to 200.. wish i was in on that.
I am positive that conditions in China are a lot worse than we are aware...re link on kidnapping. We don't hear about a lot because of censorship. A Chinese who was taking pictures of structures ruined in the earthquake to complain about shoddy construction was shipped to a re-education camp. You can Google it. The Chinese populace has been pacified/cowed by economic growth in recent years...when that goes away there are a lot of underlying issues that have been suppressed.
Market flat ahead of Fed decision, like it means anything. We're in more trouble than even I think.
Counter-trend bounce in commodities - bound to happen. If it had occurred over 5-7 days with increasing volume followed by a light volume pull back I might believe it. But when you get these viscious moves in short periods, I've learned to be very skeptical.
ades,
If you go to FT Alphaville, they posted yesterday a detailed analysis of the VW situation by an analyst from a company called Sanford Bernstein. The FT piece describes in detail how hedge funds were shorting VW but didn't know until a couple of days ago that Porsche controlled 75% of VW stock. When that fact got out, the shorts got killed by Porsche.
Man, the signal to noise ratio has improved dramtically here!
Thank you dead cat bounce!
Kung Fu Panda,
A ninja thank you to you...
~n
With how little the Fed can move markets these days anything less that 75bp drop in the FFR will cause a sell off.
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Porsche LLC? - the VW fruit machine explained
I think this might be the one.
Recently closed FHA loans will have a spike in foreclosures within 12-18 months. Even the upcoming refi'd cram downs will default becuase the borrowers are NOT credit worthy. Stupid program...stupid Gov't. DPA was putting welfare recipients into homes instead of Section 8. This housing mess has a way to go before it all comes to the surface. There is more bloodletting to come.
OT: Anyone knows why uyg and skf are so badly decoupled from xlf, and from each other? xlf down, uyg up, skf up!
Commodities are flying across the board. The breadth tells you something.
The big commodities selloff may have been a blip caused mainly by speculation and deleveraging, not long-term sustainable demand.
Now, investors all over the world are looking at the alternative between owning paper and hard stuff. It's a no-brainer for a lot of them, especially outside the U.S.
Only in the U.S. is there such stubborn belief in paper, even now.
2 hours and 15 minutes and the world gets 50 free ponies
Thank you. An interesting link and story.
nova | 10.29.08 - 11:34 am |
My pleasure! There's a lot of stuff happening beneath the surface these days...
crude up 9%
sliver up 10%
ag up big
rich writes:
Commodities are flying across the board. The breadth tells you something.
Wheat has been growing steadily during this latest turmoil. Ben might be re-thinking inflation threat. He cuts 50 bp, IMO the DOW drops, greater cut, DOW rallies. We'll see in 2.5 hrs. Tic...Tic...Tic
MMF start losing money at FFR below 1%. Might limit BB cutting below 1%.
Never bet that Bernanke will do the right thing.
I did an analysis last night to figure out what part of new silver (mine output) has been absorbed by ETFs.
Since silver and mixed PM ETFs were introduced a little over two years ago, I figure about 300-350 million ounces of bullion have gone into ETFs. Most of it, 220 million, is in SLV. That's about 20-25% of mine output over the same period.
It's a whole new source of demand in a market where supplies are tight. ETFs are absorbing an average of about 10-15 million ounces per month.
ades --
Alea also has a good round-up of VW links.
Speaking of wheat: Wheat futures rise the most in 36 years per Bloomberg
FIRST
re FDIC foreclosure fight
FHA only because people don't have a down payment, PMI companies won't go past 91% LTV, and concession limits are healthy for FHA loans.
What will be interesting to see is 2008 vintage FHA loan default rates come mid 2009. These will be full doc, full qualifying loans. That default rate will be the "tale of the tape".
On the edge writes:
Speaking of wheat: Wheat futures rise the most in 36 years per Bloomberg
Get back into fert?
Technically OT, but not really:
If Alan Greenspan lived on a flood plain, would he buy insurance?
Kudos to Rick Newman at USNews for that formulation of unassailable logic:
Greenspan vs. Buffett - Rick Newman (usnews.com)
OOPS old story
We should go to a new market schedule.
2-4 PM EST.
OnTheRun writes:
We should go to a new market schedule.
2-4 PM EST.
I say 3:59 - 4:00
Nemo thanks.
Good article on gold and silver. If you believe that we are totally screwed! Funky URL
The Gold Rush Cometh: The Sobering Truth About Why It’s Time to Invest in Gold…and Silver by Nathan Lewis
GM up 6.72%
GM up 9.12%
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Condominium buyers can get more than granite countertops and penthouse views for $4.16 million in Manhattan's Chelsea neighborhood. If Barack Obama isn't elected president, they can get out of the deal.
Call it the Obama contingency. Buyers at the building called +aRt will be released from their purchase contract ``no questions asked'' should the Democratic candidate lose to John McCain on Nov. 4, said Erik Ekstein, president of Ekstein Development.
We've been trying to move some of our product, and one of the major stumbling blocks has been political,'' Ekstein said.This being New York, people are looking forward to his taking office,'' he said of Obama.
Some would-be buyers visited the building, discussed financing, and then said they feared a McCain presidency, Ekstein said.
NYC Condo Buyers Wary of McCain Get Obama-Loss Clause (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
They be jammi
aleister perdurabo
That is awesome!!!
Remember Dewey !
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy lost a court case seeking to halt sales of a novelty voodoo kit that contained a doll in his likeness, needles and a guidebook.
The court in Paris in a ruling today rejected Sarkozy's claims that the doll made by K&B Publishers violated his exclusive right to control the use of his image.
The voodoo doll ``falls within the authorized boundaries of freedom of expression and humor,'' said Judge Isabelle Nicolle in her seven-page decision refusing to issue an emergency order banning the dolls.
Sarkozy Loses Court Case Over Novelty Voodoo Doll Kit (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
ades writes:
Remember Dewey !
Dewey's dead
Crewman writes:
Good article on gold and silver. If you believe that we are totally screwed! Funky URL
La page est introuvable gold...43_Nathan_Lewis
Crewman | 10.29.08 - 12:32 pm | #
All of the gold/silver sites look so spammy. That is why I have such a hard time believing the hype.
what's the most efficient way to bet on a dow drop short term?
oneworldcurrency yogi writes:
what's the most efficient way to bet on a dow drop short term?
dxd = double short the dow
Whatev, I agree
oneworldcurrency yogi writes:
what's the most efficient way to bet on a dow drop short term
Ultra short DOW ETF
oneworldcurrency yogi writes:
what's the most efficient way to bet on a dow drop short term?
DOG = straight short the DOW
NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- Ford Motor Credit, the finance arm of Ford Motor Co. ( F), said it had access to the U.S. Federal Reserve's new program to help cash- strapped companies meet their short-term funding needs.
"We have registered for the federal commercial paper program, and it is available for us to use if we choose to do so," spokeswoman Meredith Libbey said in an email. Libbey declined to provide further details pending third-quarter financial results scheduled for Nov. 7.
CNNMoney.com: 404 Page Not Found
This guy was saying there was no housing bubble and his site is not spammy. How many main stream retail sites were warning about the problem before it happened? Look at this article he is encouraging people to go deeper in debt.
Learning To Love Debt
i did the NPR Marketplace interview, wasn't my best, they really just wanted a fluff piece for halloween. not sure what soundbites will survive, they were interviewing others.
came about our zombie banker rampage and bloodying the wall st bull -
Costume Network Gallery :: Zombiecon 2008 :: CostumeJimPics_158
probably the line about our hotties costumed as the ghost of naked short selling will get in.
This story is whack! senior executive of a British firm was kidnapped by representatives from a state-owned metal trading company. Purpose was to get the Brit firm to release documents (documented letters of credit?) worth $350,000 to the state-controlled firm, which they eventually did.
http://shanghaiscrap.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/goldarrow1.jpg
http://shanghaiscrap.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/goldarrow2.jpg
Whatev writes:
All of the gold/silver sites look so spammy. That is why I have such a hard time believing the hype.
Plus that article is back from the BS fiasco in March. I think a lot has happened between then and now and until today, commodity prices for GLD & SLV have been flat or declining...
You should check out the latest Colbert Report. Neither major party is by any means socialist.
Realistically most "capitalist" countries are partly socialist. The fact that we collect taxes for social welfare programs, shared infrastructure, etc. is basically socialism.
The question is more where on the spectrum between socialism and capitalism is ideal in terms of the efficiency of the private sector vs. the public sector doing certain types of work as well as the burden of public spending on peoples individual initiative. People are primarily motivated by self-interest so if we take too much of their income for "the common good" we can actually harm the economy by reducing initiative thereby undermining "the common good".
The question isn't whether the candidates are socialist or capitalist -- they are clearly both.
The question is which direction do they want to push us along the capitalist/socialist spectrum, and whether or not that will ultimately be harmful or beneficial.
serf Alan Greenspend:
Ack! those pictures rawk! Love pic 144, with the zombiefied guy wearing a sign saying "Will trade stock for brains."
hee hee, thanks Imelda B.
he was sitting in the street at one point with the sign and a bloody begging bowl in front of him.
Up 10% for the day. Of that gain, I just say a 40% swing in the blink of an eye. This afternoon will be wild. Be careful out there
Time for the herd to move on.
When were those taken? When was Zombiecon? Sigh, the things I miss not living in New York.
Massive short-covering on casinos today.
LVS up over 105% despite facing insolvency, MGM and WYNN up too ~ 30%
Also USD/CAD had a big drop and is about 2.5% down from multi-year highs
As Japan chooses the music, so the currencies+commodities dance at least for a while
Don't see much interesting going on. Mostly reordering of books prior to the FOMC and a coasting into next week. Market is definitely in a neutral state of mind, could go up or down through Friday but most likely sideways. Soon I will see if my no-fun (bear market rally) until after Hallowe'en call was correct or foolish.
I hope yogi got closed out JPY/USD when it was near 90
Well done surf Greenspend. A buddy of mine is making a zombie movie right now, and the crawlers feature prominently.
Dog Chow Movie
If Obama wins we get an epic selloff with limit down closure of the markets. I took OTM SPY puts as insurance.
"Also USD/CAD had a big drop and is about 2.5% down from multi-year highs"
EHP, I noticed a 9c drop in 2 days. Glad I bit the bullet and bought CAD a couple of days ago.
bearly writes:
If Obama wins we get an epic selloff with limit down closure of the markets. I took OTM SPY puts as insurance.
I see it exactly the opposite. Lack of confidence and credibility in the markets is it's greatest concern. McCain will do nothing to address that. Obama will. The markets arelike pets or children in the way that they want and need discipline in order to feel loved.
ice clip max, here's a short clip of the bull carnage a week or so ago!
YouTube - Baptism of Blood- Wall Street Bull
and a half hour version by a few participants, i'm not thrilled with but has some funny and naughty bits. parents with kids in college here should not watch, or folks with prudish minds.
by the way, we cleaned up the blood from the bull, art not vandalism.
YouTube -
Of course eliminating DAPs would hurt sales in the short term. Just like eliminating theft would hurt the economy. When someone burglars a house they stimulate the economy of pawn shops and spend money themselves on consumption. Plus they force the person robbed from to buy replacement goods. Bush-style consumer driven economy at its finest.
I sold half at 90 to buy CAD. (No thanks to you, lol) If a rate cut I guess I'll unload other half.
Great link Max re: Chinese scrap kidnapping
Pissed Off In California
Congrats on getting while the getting was good. There are still a few phases to work through re: commodities, not the least of which will be disclosure of China's actual economy followed by some kind of direct stimulus from its reserves. The USD/CAD hasn't plunged by any means yet though and the upside remains very limited
EHP,
So I guess you're saying get while the getting is good.
I still see more downside for oil before we're done though. I'm hoping for a run to between 130-140 on the upside.
I'm hearing from my relatives in China that it's going very bad very fast there.
Guess I will have to see how this pans out.
BDiego, Theft does nothing to stimulate the economy. The money spent to replace the stolen goods comes by reducing spending on what would have been purchased instead. Plus the disruption effect diverts energy to nonproductive use of time.
Theft is a wealth transfer - a redistribution.
z
The market hates uncertainty. When the election is over the uncertainty will be reduced and investors can more clearly forecast the future. Some money will then flow back in. We will see some short-term improvement in the stock market upon either candidate winning.
Eventually the fundamentals will rule the market again.
The president has very little influence on the economy. THis is especially true during the first year in office, as the fiscal budget for 2009 is determined by the outgoing administration.
DAPs were actually a very small part of the downpayments here in L.A. County, but nevertheless I'm glad to see they've gone away.
However, the uptick in FHA loans has more to do with the limits being raised and the requirements being loosened than it does with DAPs. For example, a buyer can have all of their downpayment supplied by parents, and doesn't have to have a particularly excellent credit score. Plus, even here in expensive So. Cal, a loan of $417,000 will buy you something decent (not in Bev Hills, of course).