I heard a former Fed Governor on Bloomberg this morning. The interviewer was talking about the markets and this Governor said he expects things to get better and that the stimulus effect of all of the Feds actions have yet to take place. Then the Interviewer reiterated some of Roubini's recent comments about the direction of the market. The response from the Fed Governor was dismissive including "well, you know my glass is always half full"
Perhaps his glass is half full of Kool-Aid.
I'm not as dour as Roubini on the markets but anyone who saw the writing on the wall 24 months in advance of this shiat storm should be given a bit more creedence.
It's always the pioneers that take the arrows. In this case if you mention Roubini you're "being negative".
Has anybody maintained a list of banks that have been clean during this housing bubble/scam? Banks that maintained good old-fashioned lending standards?
I would like to take ALL my business to those banks.
I haven't watched the video yet, but I think the basis thesis for a comment like that is:
We're in a credit-derived earnings bubble. We've been in one for 30 years.
Past bubbles have been about valuations, this time the Western equity valuations were responsible.
This time the earnings will disintegrate and there won't be that bounce back.
The next phase of the crisis to matter will be about competitive and cooperative currency alignment. There will be no wholesale debt overhang reduction, no meaningful restructuring (I'm talking about the individual consumer all the way up to institutional level debt). There will be a passive-aggressive war.
Any person who prefaces their comments with a political insinuation has a good chance of having nothing worthwhile to say at all. Regardless of where we've been framing issues to facist/socialist/communist/capitalist/objectivist/Ben Steinist, really add no substance.
A few threads have been hijacked about the politics of these events, and I'm beginning to think it's just the seven stages of grieving to generalize. There's been anger and now it's moving on from denial to bargaining.
The difference in outcomes based on an election today is minimal, so I think whatever it is fueling the political rhetoric, on a blog initially dedicated to mortgage securitization irresponsibility, should be addressed more directly so that it does no circularly repeat itself.
Ah, Roubini. Seems to generally have it right. And is so brooding and handsome in his photo from Glamour Shots at the mall. I would if he ate a gyro or a Cinnbun before that shoot.
problem: roubini was saying in the autumn of 2006 that that rally was a "sucker's rally." Also, he was saying then that he is 100% invested and will remain so because he "does not try to time the market."
perhaps we go another 30% lower, but taking your allocation advice or trading advice from an "economist" is a really had idea.
"The next phase of the crisis to matter will be about competitive and cooperative currency alignment. There will be no wholesale debt overhang reduction, no meaningful restructuring (I'm talking about the individual consumer all the way up to institutional level debt). There will be a passive-aggressive war."
If you'll look at:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC#chart1:symbol=^gspc;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
and extend the trend-line that exists from 1982-1995, you'll see that we could fall some more and still be in a long-term uptrend. Should it fall to that level, it merely indicates that an equities bubble has burst. Note that there is another trendline (from about '75 to '82) that could be extended to the present.
If the rationale for this decline is more cogent that that for the 9-11/dotcom decline, then I think that the market could easily fall below the upper 700s (s&p 500).
Broward, get some happy pills, your divorce has left you in the midst of a middle age crisis that sounds like quite a drag
It's not the divorce, it's the job market. Well, plus my health. I thought if I worked hard enough, I could succeed but I don't believe that anymore.
The job market is much more about being a politician now and "managing perception" and I've grown very weary of living in a culture that functions on glad-handing and lies.
Do you know why it's a middle-aged crisis? Because you're past the 1/2 mark and you can see what road you took and what lies ahead.
The US is not getting fixed. Read your history. It won't recover into anything resembling an ethical culture in my remaining lifetime.
Women suck.
Work sucks.
Pool is okay, although it can get boring. Changing diapers on 30-year-old supergeniuses is annoying.
Do you have to be an optimist to be an optometrist? It seems to be a part of the root, so, if you aren't, that would seem fraudulent. If you ever get glasses from a half-empty glass guy, get a new optometrist who sees half full glasses. You'll thank me for this advise some day.
There's still 12 trillion in mortgages out there plus several more trillion in Helocs. Unables, walkaways, markdowns, losses have barely started.
Throw in Swaps, PE losses, MA losses, CR losses, Hedge fund blowups, CC losses, car loans, a substantial portion of corporate america over-leveraged, banks in the tank, the consumer-half DOA, the other half unwilling to buy anything, no more US debt funding via Far East trade or Petro dollars(everyone else is in the tank too), health care gone, underfunded pensions, 2 warzones, ss and medicaire underfunded by 95 Trillion, 10 trillion usa debt plus another 4 just added etc etc. If I left anything feel free to add.
A few threads have been hijacked about the politics of these events, and I'm beginning to think it's just the seven stages of grieving to generalize
We're not even close to the grieving stage. If anything, this is still the denial stage as a great many people DO believe the election will change outcomes.
I think there's a lot of chatter about it simply because it's the predominate event for the month of October.
Where are the Feds going to get the money to rework 20 million mortgages?
picosec-never thought about that, it would be interesting how that affects historical trading views used to make decisions about where today's pe's are headed...
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D., N.Y.), said he wants upcoming fiscal stimulus legislation to funnel aid to states and localities. He said he hopes that package can be approved shortly after the election.
Tom,
I am actually serious. I am trying to figure out how to make this list.
Sril,I have a cast iron piggy Bank,keep those cards and letters coming!
Tom Stone | 10.29.08 - 6:14 pm |
Give up. I remember last year (so long ago) when Elvis merely commented once or twice a day. Judging by what I've seen today, I think Tom's been drinking the same joy juice.
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The financial crisis exacerbated by credit derivatives is costing so much to fix that speculators are now using those same instruments to bet on governments as the price tag for bailing out banks approaches $3 trillion.
The cost to hedge against losses on $10 million of Treasuries is about $40,000 annually for 10 years, up from $1,000 in the first half of 2007, based on CMA Datavision prices. The equivalent for German bunds has risen to more than $36,000 from $2,000, while it has jumped to $64,000 from $3,000 for U.K. gilts.
BH, they are going to magic it up out of thin air, as usual.
So, as we unwind a bunch of leverage, the monkeys that chatter about inflation appear to be correct, while the real amount of money in circulation starts blasting higher.
Read the People's Daily, it has better analysis of the rest of the world's viewpoint regarding the dollar, than 99% of the dreck I have read from the MSM.
Tbonds- the last bubble, and one that will pop- and much faster than in the 1930's.
Traditionally in times of excessive debt, prior to bankruptcy proceedings, the debtor would go to extremes to balance accounts. Kings would execute bankers, countries would declare war, so on and so forth.
The alternative was to lose everything, this is where slaves came from before the slave trade. This is how pimps got prostitutes, and factory owners got child sweatshop workers.
Since it's been become obvious that there will be no international agreements on debt forgiveness under any terms, there is one way left to keep the debt payable.
We're much to civilized and interconnected for there to be a proper war, at least for now. So instead by devaluing one's domestic currency you also devalue your outstanding debt, and have the hope that countries dependent on exporting to you will follow suit. What good is your commodity/labour if in playing out the game no one will pay your quote? Essentially taking hostage the exporting economy of your net-suppliers in order to force a debt write down to your creditors. Things can change in the long run, so this is why central bankers will act swift.
We've got a lot of old faces in fresh suits at the table so I have no clear idea on the ultimate outcome. Keep tabs on the US, South america, non-China east-Asia, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (China + Russia + most 'stans), and the EU (with its multiple internal layers) as key 'blocks'. Countries like Canada and India, or a region like Southwest Asia will have to respond to their neighbors in the medium-term. I'm getting way ahead of myself though
Whomever wins, the whole world loses while the squabble plays out as it certainly will not be conducive to some sort of stability that supports growth in innovation and value-added
Give up. I remember last year (so long ago) when Elvis merely commented once or twice a day. Judging by what I've seen today, I think Tom's been drinking the same joy juice.
sdtfs
Not sure about S & P 30%. But I know that we are going to look at our financial landscape in two years and wonder how the hell we got here. No one, even the great Roubini, can predict what the goverment bailouts will cause, particularly now that it has become an all out politics-fueled fight for the seeming bottomless government wallet.
Who can we say no to now? Are we ever going to say no again?
What about GM and Chrysler or Ford for that matter?
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Army picked three teams to develop competing prototypes of a vehicle that may replace the U.S. fleet of Humvees in a program potentially valued at as much as $40 billion.
Lockheed Martin Corp. and BAE Systems Plc will each lead a team, while a joint venture between General Dynamics Corp. and Humvee-maker AM General received the third order. The contracts are valued at $35.9 million for Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed; $45.1 million for General Dynamics and $40.5 million for London-based BAE. The completion deadline is Jan. 31, 2011.
Pilgrim writes:
What happens when a T-bond bubble pops? Rates go to the moon?
We first get the equity market rally. Then the regular economy and trade will steer commodity prices against the direction of monetary intervention (eg inflation in the US will occur)
That forecast is only for the next ~1 year if that. My crystal ball if foggier than ever these days
Anonymouse,
about rally or no rally,
It is iffy here. No charts from me, just intuitive BS
The slow down today was expected (as we said yesterday 60-30 min. were already close to overbought rsi)
Day charts are improving, Vol. on up days is resilient
but the down vol. is still very high, intuitively it seems still too high for a rally (which is due however) = need to drop below the average of previous down days
Seems retest down is in order, how far? But if the down vol. drops we may be ready next for a decent up move. Assuming that we do not close below 850
Today we closed at 930, weekly support 2003. the support below that is 850
(I keep seeing a chance that we spike below 800 intraday .. that would be the cherry on the cake to freak out the weak hands)
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Insurance companies including Lincoln National Corp. may seek to become banks to qualify for a slice of the $250 billion being doled out to financial firms by the U.S. government.
Lincoln National Chief Executive Officer Dennis Glass said today he's weighing the transformation of his Philadelphia-based life insurer into a bank holding company. His comment came as Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said her agency, which protects bank customers, may play a role in regulating insurers.
Roubini estimating the downside risk :
Suppose... ...with a multiple of 12, the S&P schould be at 720, ...recession ...multiple of 10, the S&P schould be at 600... ...so, you can have 30 to 40% downside risk.
Dumb Bloomberg anchorperson :
So, what does it mean for the market... ...you said there could be more downside, HOW MUCH MORE,...
bearly, agree that 300-400 seems like a much more logical target. 600 is wishful thinking, and could only be held with serious currency debasement, and in such a scenario, would it matter? 600 would feel a lot like 300.
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
Look what's rollin in...
a new set of bailouts. WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com SB...=googlenews_wsj
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D., N.Y.), said he wants upcoming fiscal stimulus legislation to funnel aid to states and localities. He said he hopes that package can be approved shortly after the election.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 10.29.08 - 6:35 pm |
Good lord! They really need to stop it at this point. It really all is a joke.
By the way, while we are at it, let's bail out everyone in the world and give everyone a 4,000 sq. ft. home.
This is really sad. No shame at all anymore. At this point, I really believe most of this is just pandering and grandstanding.
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
... a new set of bailouts. WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com SB...=googlenews_wsj
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D., N.Y.), said he wants upcoming fiscal stimulus legislation to funnel aid to states and localities...
Whaaahaahaa..
Everybody gets bailed out but the poor taxpayer.
After building a huge industry pushing fraudulent mortgages etc., now they are building a huge "bailout industry". Next american scam-industry to generate employment and fees.
Interview with Dr. Michael Hudson
Guns and Butter - 2008-10-08
... The Economist had a wonderful chart last week, showing that the Federal Reserve has already swapped $500 billion worth of Treasury bonds for junk. The cash for trash has already begun since March by the Federal Reserve so $500 billion is almost as much as the $700 billion that the Treasury is talking about, this has already been given away by the Fed to Wall Street insiders and nothing has been said in the media about this at all. Although its been statistically reported by the Fed. The Fed reports its holdings and securities. It reports its holdings of Treasury Securities, which have gone down by $ 500 trillion.
It reports its overall securities, which are now $1.1 trillion compared to less than $500 billion in Treasury Securities. And this leaves between $500 billion and $600 billion in essentially non-treasury securities, which are the junk theyve taken on with these swaps that its arranged. And the Fed has been swapping this not only with the banks that its supposed to represent but its been doing cash for trash with insurance companies, investment banks and people who have no relation at all under the Fed and this is being done under the Feds special small print of the Feds Articles of Incorporation saying it can do this to save the economy. Well its not saving the economy at all. Its wrecking the economy by doing this. Its wrecking the economy by buying trash from insiders and as I said, creating a new Kleptocracy.....
I noticed that Roubini spoke more softly than usual, his hair seemed more closely cropped, and most importantly, his tie isn't as loose as usual. Roubini is growing accustomed to being part of the establishment instead of Dr. Doom?
So here is an idea. Why not have the feds pay business to keep their employees. Reduce the unemployment, and you have suddenly increased spending and it goes on from there. As a "person" vs a corporation (who STILL PAY THEIR TOP MANAGEMENT UNDESERVED BONUSE, NOW WITH TAXPAYERS MONEY), I think this is a much better way to support the economy.
Is that woman who interviewed Roubini really stupid, or was she not listening to what he said? She is what's wrong with journalism. TV reporters are drawn from the same pool as teeth whitener models and Alaska beauty queens. No wonder the public never saw the housing bubble or financial collapses coming.
Agreed, she really had to clue what she was asking him. Somebody else with two brain cells wrote the questions.
But still, I need some help for Thursday and Friday night.
Picosec: I guess whether consolidation creates more profit depends on the interest paid to acquire the merger. I sure hope KKR has to spin off Dollar General--and not to another private equity group. I know that their employees would have been better off had they not had their jobs sold. Also, I would like a piece of that pie.
Yeah but he always says that.
I hope it is 99%
Carolyn is one hot MILF...just saying
well.. he is bearish, but he a bit too repetitive
I still say 610 on the S&P and I am a buyer
I have chart pron!
<a href="http://img135.imageshack.us/my.php?image=spxfractalwc8.png>Here's my take on today's action - fwiw I'm a fade
Anonymouse --
You mean you are fading the rally, or the sell-off?
Nemo,
I'm wrong so often - it's best to fade me
It's got to be at least 50% to make the 450 number on the S&P. That number makes a lot more sense than a 30% decline.
Beware Bottom Callers - The Market Ticker
Holy crap!
At the end of the video, Nouriel groans, "I vant to suck your blood," and bites the host on the neck.
I heard a former Fed Governor on Bloomberg this morning. The interviewer was talking about the markets and this Governor said he expects things to get better and that the stimulus effect of all of the Feds actions have yet to take place. Then the Interviewer reiterated some of Roubini's recent comments about the direction of the market. The response from the Fed Governor was dismissive including "well, you know my glass is always half full"
Perhaps his glass is half full of Kool-Aid.
I'm not as dour as Roubini on the markets but anyone who saw the writing on the wall 24 months in advance of this shiat storm should be given a bit more creedence.
It's always the pioneers that take the arrows. In this case if you mention Roubini you're "being negative".
my .02
Has anybody maintained a list of banks that have been clean during this housing bubble/scam? Banks that maintained good old-fashioned lending standards?
I would like to take ALL my business to those banks.
Didnt he say he owned equities?
Something doesnt add up....
......
Nouriel groans, "I vant to suck your blood," and bites the host on the neck
I didn't know Roubini had worked on Wall Street.
Sril,I have a cast iron piggy Bank,keep those cards and letters coming!
I haven't watched the video yet, but I think the basis thesis for a comment like that is:
We're in a credit-derived earnings bubble. We've been in one for 30 years.
Past bubbles have been about valuations, this time the Western equity valuations were responsible.
This time the earnings will disintegrate and there won't be that bounce back.
The next phase of the crisis to matter will be about competitive and cooperative currency alignment. There will be no wholesale debt overhang reduction, no meaningful restructuring (I'm talking about the individual consumer all the way up to institutional level debt). There will be a passive-aggressive war.
Any person who prefaces their comments with a political insinuation has a good chance of having nothing worthwhile to say at all. Regardless of where we've been framing issues to facist/socialist/communist/capitalist/objectivist/Ben Steinist, really add no substance.
A few threads have been hijacked about the politics of these events, and I'm beginning to think it's just the seven stages of grieving to generalize. There's been anger and now it's moving on from denial to bargaining.
The difference in outcomes based on an election today is minimal, so I think whatever it is fueling the political rhetoric, on a blog initially dedicated to mortgage securitization irresponsibility, should be addressed more directly so that it does no circularly repeat itself.
Broward, get some happy pills, your divorce has left you in the midst of a middle age crisis that sounds like quite a drag.
Get a decent job and have some more fun. As for the rest, well, so what?
You act like 70, not 50.
N.R. and JJ and MS are all of the permanent doom and gloom set.
After all, even I say:
Someday this war's gonna end...
I'm so tired of "may decline", "may worsen", "could get worse"
Somebody make a damn prediction and stand behind it.
what time is the gdp expected to be released tomorrow?
Ah, Roubini. Seems to generally have it right. And is so brooding and handsome in his photo from Glamour Shots at the mall. I would if he ate a gyro or a Cinnbun before that shoot.
Preliminary 3rd Qtr. GDP released @ 08:30EST to the world; it will be delayed 3 weeks for lurker.
JWMTG - "Perhaps his glass is half full of Kool-aid" - There goes another monitor. Where do I send the bill?
Tom,
I am actually serious. I am trying to figure out how to make this list.
Sril,I have a cast iron piggy Bank,keep those cards and letters coming!
Tom Stone | 10.29.08 - 6:14 pm |
Roubini is an optomist. Read this interview with Michael Hudson:
The New Kleptocracy: Biggest "Giveaway" in American History
problem: roubini was saying in the autumn of 2006 that that rally was a "sucker's rally." Also, he was saying then that he is 100% invested and will remain so because he "does not try to time the market."
perhaps we go another 30% lower, but taking your allocation advice or trading advice from an "economist" is a really had idea.
"The next phase of the crisis to matter will be about competitive and cooperative currency alignment. There will be no wholesale debt overhang reduction, no meaningful restructuring (I'm talking about the individual consumer all the way up to institutional level debt). There will be a passive-aggressive war."
Please explain "passive-agressive war." Sounds fascinating. Economic warfare?
sorry, meant to say Bad idea.
market advice from an economist is a bad idea.
If you'll look at:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC#chart1:symbol=^gspc;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
and extend the trend-line that exists from 1982-1995, you'll see that we could fall some more and still be in a long-term uptrend. Should it fall to that level, it merely indicates that an equities bubble has burst. Note that there is another trendline (from about '75 to '82) that could be extended to the present.
If the rationale for this decline is more cogent that that for the 9-11/dotcom decline, then I think that the market could easily fall below the upper 700s (s&p 500).
Broward, get some happy pills, your divorce has left you in the midst of a middle age crisis that sounds like quite a drag
It's not the divorce, it's the job market. Well, plus my health. I thought if I worked hard enough, I could succeed but I don't believe that anymore.
The job market is much more about being a politician now and "managing perception" and I've grown very weary of living in a culture that functions on glad-handing and lies.
Do you know why it's a middle-aged crisis? Because you're past the 1/2 mark and you can see what road you took and what lies ahead.
The US is not getting fixed. Read your history. It won't recover into anything resembling an ethical culture in my remaining lifetime.
Women suck.
Work sucks.
Pool is okay, although it can get boring. Changing diapers on 30-year-old supergeniuses is annoying.
Pool.
Diapers.
Women.
I choose pool.
Good day, Sir!
"Roubini is an optomist."
Do you have to be an optimist to be an optometrist? It seems to be a part of the root, so, if you aren't, that would seem fraudulent. If you ever get glasses from a half-empty glass guy, get a new optometrist who sees half full glasses. You'll thank me for this advise some day.
GDP at 8.30
U.S. Economic Calendar
employment numbers Friday
There's still 12 trillion in mortgages out there plus several more trillion in Helocs. Unables, walkaways, markdowns, losses have barely started.
Throw in Swaps, PE losses, MA losses, CR losses, Hedge fund blowups, CC losses, car loans, a substantial portion of corporate america over-leveraged, banks in the tank, the consumer-half DOA, the other half unwilling to buy anything, no more US debt funding via Far East trade or Petro dollars(everyone else is in the tank too), health care gone, underfunded pensions, 2 warzones, ss and medicaire underfunded by 95 Trillion, 10 trillion usa debt plus another 4 just added etc etc. If I left anything feel free to add.
Yep, everything is a-ok and right on schedule.
Elvis - you are one sick puppy
What a treacly pollyanna he is.
I shall weep with joy if S&P really bottoms out at 600... 300-400 seems far more likely. Taking back those -94 levels where this insanity started.
Thanks CSC. (Previous thread.) Whenever I come up with something cool, there is always a new thread.
To summarize: DOOM!
sril - I heard an interview with the ING Direct CEO and he claimed they were clean. I haven't followed through to see if it's true.
NC - what's your take on today's market action? Did you notice how the last 2 trading days are nearly identical to 10/13 and 10/14?
B.H. you should check out how many attributes of autism that you have and consider managing your responses to the usual workplace crap.
Sorry, but tech is overrun with autistic spectrum behavior, and everytime I deal with the folks over in Information Services, I keep that in mind.
That applies to almost everyone who works with computers.
You guys are not as bad as friggin social workers, but close.
Ethical? In business? Good old days?
You can't be serious.
If you are, then you need help.
Someday this war's gonna end...
ING = AIG on steroids.
The companies that make up all the major stock indices mutate over the years; failed/merged companies are replaced by (generally healthier) companies.
This survivors syndrome surely results in a higher index than would be if the former components were still included (at a value at or near zero).
Anyone know of any studies that would place a value on current indices based on their components 10, 20, ...years ago?
OnTheRun - Just shoot me
A few threads have been hijacked about the politics of these events, and I'm beginning to think it's just the seven stages of grieving to generalize
We're not even close to the grieving stage. If anything, this is still the denial stage as a great many people DO believe the election will change outcomes.
I think there's a lot of chatter about it simply because it's the predominate event for the month of October.
Where are the Feds going to get the money to rework 20 million mortgages?
picosec-never thought about that, it would be interesting how that affects historical trading views used to make decisions about where today's pe's are headed...
Look what's rollin in...
a new set of bailouts.
Rep. Rangel Says Stimulus Should Focus on Cities, States - WSJ.com
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D., N.Y.), said he wants upcoming fiscal stimulus legislation to funnel aid to states and localities. He said he hopes that package can be approved shortly after the election.
Tom,
I am actually serious. I am trying to figure out how to make this list.
Sril,I have a cast iron piggy Bank,keep those cards and letters coming!
Tom Stone | 10.29.08 - 6:14 pm |
Give up. I remember last year (so long ago) when Elvis merely commented once or twice a day. Judging by what I've seen today, I think Tom's been drinking the same joy juice.
From you and me. The savers have been enslaved for the next 2 generations.
Where are the Feds going to get the money to rework 20 million mortgages?
Broward Horne | Homepage | 10.29.08 - 6:32 pm | #
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The financial crisis exacerbated by credit derivatives is costing so much to fix that speculators are now using those same instruments to bet on governments as the price tag for bailing out banks approaches $3 trillion.
The cost to hedge against losses on $10 million of Treasuries is about $40,000 annually for 10 years, up from $1,000 in the first half of 2007, based on CMA Datavision prices. The equivalent for German bunds has risen to more than $36,000 from $2,000, while it has jumped to $64,000 from $3,000 for U.K. gilts.
World According to TARP No Laughing Matter for U.S. (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
BH, they are going to magic it up out of thin air, as usual.
So, as we unwind a bunch of leverage, the monkeys that chatter about inflation appear to be correct, while the real amount of money in circulation starts blasting higher.
Read the People's Daily, it has better analysis of the rest of the world's viewpoint regarding the dollar, than 99% of the dreck I have read from the MSM.
Tbonds- the last bubble, and one that will pop- and much faster than in the 1930's.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Elvis - you are one sick puppy
snake-eyes
You must be thinking of Cerberbus. And they are one sick puppy with three, money vomiting heads.
[I shall weep with joy if S&P really bottoms out at 600... 300-400 seems far more likely. Taking back those -94 levels ]
What if it overshoots to the downside ?
Bob Dobbs,
Traditionally in times of excessive debt, prior to bankruptcy proceedings, the debtor would go to extremes to balance accounts. Kings would execute bankers, countries would declare war, so on and so forth.
The alternative was to lose everything, this is where slaves came from before the slave trade. This is how pimps got prostitutes, and factory owners got child sweatshop workers.
Since it's been become obvious that there will be no international agreements on debt forgiveness under any terms, there is one way left to keep the debt payable.
We're much to civilized and interconnected for there to be a proper war, at least for now. So instead by devaluing one's domestic currency you also devalue your outstanding debt, and have the hope that countries dependent on exporting to you will follow suit. What good is your commodity/labour if in playing out the game no one will pay your quote? Essentially taking hostage the exporting economy of your net-suppliers in order to force a debt write down to your creditors. Things can change in the long run, so this is why central bankers will act swift.
We've got a lot of old faces in fresh suits at the table so I have no clear idea on the ultimate outcome. Keep tabs on the US, South america, non-China east-Asia, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (China + Russia + most 'stans), and the EU (with its multiple internal layers) as key 'blocks'. Countries like Canada and India, or a region like Southwest Asia will have to respond to their neighbors in the medium-term. I'm getting way ahead of myself though
Whomever wins, the whole world loses while the squabble plays out as it certainly will not be conducive to some sort of stability that supports growth in innovation and value-added
What happens when a T-bond bubble pops? Rates go to the moon?
Give up. I remember last year (so long ago) when Elvis merely commented once or twice a day. Judging by what I've seen today, I think Tom's been drinking the same joy juice.
sdtfs
You memory is bad sdtfs. Now I understand...
Not sure about S & P 30%. But I know that we are going to look at our financial landscape in two years and wonder how the hell we got here. No one, even the great Roubini, can predict what the goverment bailouts will cause, particularly now that it has become an all out politics-fueled fight for the seeming bottomless government wallet.
Who can we say no to now? Are we ever going to say no again?
Pilgrim, yes.
What about GM and Chrysler or Ford for that matter?
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Army picked three teams to develop competing prototypes of a vehicle that may replace the U.S. fleet of Humvees in a program potentially valued at as much as $40 billion.
Lockheed Martin Corp. and BAE Systems Plc will each lead a team, while a joint venture between General Dynamics Corp. and Humvee-maker AM General received the third order. The contracts are valued at $35.9 million for Bethesda, Maryland-based Lockheed; $45.1 million for General Dynamics and $40.5 million for London-based BAE. The completion deadline is Jan. 31, 2011.
U.S. Picks 3 Teams for Humvee-Replacement Prototypes (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Pilgrim writes:
What happens when a T-bond bubble pops? Rates go to the moon?
We first get the equity market rally. Then the regular economy and trade will steer commodity prices against the direction of monetary intervention (eg inflation in the US will occur)
That forecast is only for the next ~1 year if that. My crystal ball if foggier than ever these days
Elvis - you must mean three money-gobbleing heads
Anonymouse,
about rally or no rally,
It is iffy here. No charts from me, just intuitive BS
The slow down today was expected (as we said yesterday 60-30 min. were already close to overbought rsi)
Day charts are improving, Vol. on up days is resilient
but the down vol. is still very high, intuitively it seems still too high for a rally (which is due however) = need to drop below the average of previous down days
Seems retest down is in order, how far? But if the down vol. drops we may be ready next for a decent up move. Assuming that we do not close below 850
Today we closed at 930, weekly support 2003. the support below that is 850
(I keep seeing a chance that we spike below 800 intraday .. that would be the cherry on the cake to freak out the weak hands)
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Insurance companies including Lincoln National Corp. may seek to become banks to qualify for a slice of the $250 billion being doled out to financial firms by the U.S. government.
Lincoln National Chief Executive Officer Dennis Glass said today he's weighing the transformation of his Philadelphia-based life insurer into a bank holding company. His comment came as Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said her agency, which protects bank customers, may play a role in regulating insurers.
Insurers May Become Banks in Quest for Federal Cash (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
I realize this is for the previous topic, but I couldn't even go to lunch w/o the goobermint making more promises.
Crikey, Holy Mortgages, Batman! Now the Treasury and the FDIC are planning to rework mortgages.
Just how many more programs can be insituted and at what cost before the USSA finally dies of debt overload?
At this point, we are just a caricature of our former selves. This is just looney tunes economy now.
Don't worry, the goobermint will own everything, inc. us, very soon!
NC - Again, I enjoy your take. You've clearly been doing this for years and are in it to make money
1/2 point cut and Wells Fargo only took 4 hours to get conforming mortgages back to what they were pre-cut. 6.675%
Dumb Bloomberg personal :
Roubini estimating the downside risk :
Suppose... ...with a multiple of 12, the S&P schould be at 720, ...recession ...multiple of 10, the S&P schould be at 600... ...so, you can have 30 to 40% downside risk.
Dumb Bloomberg anchorperson :
So, what does it mean for the market... ...you said there could be more downside, HOW MUCH MORE,...
She doesn' get it !
bearly, agree that 300-400 seems like a much more logical target. 600 is wishful thinking, and could only be held with serious currency debasement, and in such a scenario, would it matter? 600 would feel a lot like 300.
EHP has been reading my playbook!
Lol!
Only what I have been espousing for quite a while, but hey- nobody expects inflation right now!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
Look what's rollin in...
a new set of bailouts.
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com SB...=googlenews_wsj
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D., N.Y.), said he wants upcoming fiscal stimulus legislation to funnel aid to states and localities. He said he hopes that package can be approved shortly after the election.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 10.29.08 - 6:35 pm |
Good lord! They really need to stop it at this point. It really all is a joke.
By the way, while we are at it, let's bail out everyone in the world and give everyone a 4,000 sq. ft. home.
This is really sad. No shame at all anymore. At this point, I really believe most of this is just pandering and grandstanding.
Cheney dead yet?
Anonymous - How could you tell?
Best performing ETFs, Year to date:
Maoxian » Best Performing ETFs, Year-to-Date
Can fed rates go lower? I mean is it OK to start shorting treasuries in anticipation of rate increases?
Does Roubini do any actual work, or just do media?
He's getting overexposed. Short his stock.
NC - Again, I enjoy your take. You've clearly been doing this for years and are in it to make money ;)"
... thanks, I can almost feel my hair going grey as I read this
Dude, get out.
Roubini is The Man.
I'd be like a coed at an Obama rally for Count Roubini.
Anyone here taken a Roubini class at NYU?
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
... a new set of bailouts.
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com SB...=googlenews_wsj
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D., N.Y.), said he wants upcoming fiscal stimulus legislation to funnel aid to states and localities...
Whaaahaahaa..
Everybody gets bailed out but the poor taxpayer.
After building a huge industry pushing fraudulent mortgages etc., now they are building a huge "bailout industry". Next american scam-industry to generate employment and fees.
Hey you guys there is a new thread.
Latest from Gross:
PIMCO - IO Gross November 2008 So CQish
hmmmm ....
The New Kleptocracy: Biggest "Giveaway" in American History
Interview with Dr. Michael Hudson
Guns and Butter - 2008-10-08
... The Economist had a wonderful chart last week, showing that the Federal Reserve has already swapped $500 billion worth of Treasury bonds for junk. The cash for trash has already begun since March by the Federal Reserve so $500 billion is almost as much as the $700 billion that the Treasury is talking about, this has already been given away by the Fed to Wall Street insiders and nothing has been said in the media about this at all. Although its been statistically reported by the Fed. The Fed reports its holdings and securities. It reports its holdings of Treasury Securities, which have gone down by $ 500 trillion.
It reports its overall securities, which are now $1.1 trillion compared to less than $500 billion in Treasury Securities. And this leaves between $500 billion and $600 billion in essentially non-treasury securities, which are the junk theyve taken on with these swaps that its arranged. And the Fed has been swapping this not only with the banks that its supposed to represent but its been doing cash for trash with insurance companies, investment banks and people who have no relation at all under the Fed and this is being done under the Feds special small print of the Feds Articles of Incorporation saying it can do this to save the economy. Well its not saving the economy at all. Its wrecking the economy by doing this. Its wrecking the economy by buying trash from insiders and as I said, creating a new Kleptocracy.....
"Anyone here taken a Roubini class at NYU?"
Unfortunately, I got within a hairs-breadth but had to drop it to fit in a class on, irony of ironies, risk management in financial institutions.
Ran into him in the halls, though!
EvilHenry:
Thanks for the cogent explanation.
Bob
I will be aiming for Stern for my future useless MBA
I noticed that Roubini spoke more softly than usual, his hair seemed more closely cropped, and most importantly, his tie isn't as loose as usual. Roubini is growing accustomed to being part of the establishment instead of Dr. Doom?
Noticed he said, "may decline." Not taking much of a stand, is he?
Appears he likes to hear himself yak.
Roubini is such a happy guy. He and Kunstler oughta whip up their own road show version of Annie.
What kind of economist makes stock market predictions? This guy is a real comedian.
I have followed Roubini for years. He's been right an awful lot. That said, I do wonder when an economist starts prognosticating about the S&P 500.
SpeciousRiches
aleister perdurabo,
Can you elaborate on your ING remark? I have been so focused domestically I missed the overseas carnage.
How about going 25% long when trailing PE ratios get to 9x, another 25% at 8x, 7x & 6x....that should cover the '70s scenario.
Provided we have earnings that is....
His quantitative analysis is lacking. Do your own research.
He's been wrong much more often than right.
So here is an idea. Why not have the feds pay business to keep their employees. Reduce the unemployment, and you have suddenly increased spending and it goes on from there. As a "person" vs a corporation (who STILL PAY THEIR TOP MANAGEMENT UNDESERVED BONUSE, NOW WITH TAXPAYERS MONEY), I think this is a much better way to support the economy.
Food for thought. Angry B
Is that woman who interviewed Roubini really stupid, or was she not listening to what he said? She is what's wrong with journalism. TV reporters are drawn from the same pool as teeth whitener models and Alaska beauty queens. No wonder the public never saw the housing bubble or financial collapses coming.
this guy used to be some sort of fictional characterization of the financial grim reaper...roubini is going mainstream now...
Did anyone see the plastic vulva behind the set?
I'm convinced Roubini only has one blue shirt and shiny blue polyester tie for teevee. Proof he is clueless in at least one area.
I think the problem (as stated in a link above) is:
Wall Street and the banks are being bailed out by Gov't. But the banks are not bailing out the people.
The government's plan is not working. GWB is frustrated by this. Really frustrated.
Sril, the healthy banks are getting killed by the low FED rate and unintended consequences of gov't intervention to back-stop the big connected banks.
So there's no need to gather a list.
Instead you should study how Juan Peron and his policies brought Argentina from prosperity to desparity over the course of 50 years.
Agreed, she really had to clue what she was asking him. Somebody else with two brain cells wrote the questions.
But still, I need some help for Thursday and Friday night.
"What happens when a T-bond bubble pops? Rates go to the moon?"
No. Currency gets revalued. Chess board cleared by a new global curency in cooperation with the Yen and the Euro.
If any other currency objects to this, economic hitmen, F-22's and Naval Carriers are soon deployed.
We don't actually need to go to 0% to have a liquidity trap; we're already in one! The banks still aren't lending are they? That's the trap.
Picosec: I guess whether consolidation creates more profit depends on the interest paid to acquire the merger. I sure hope KKR has to spin off Dollar General--and not to another private equity group. I know that their employees would have been better off had they not had their jobs sold. Also, I would like a piece of that pie.
Funny part -- about 5&1/2 minutes into the video a new question comes and Roubini gets on a roll.
It's hilarious.
All true, sure, but hilarious finally.
Roubini is an optomist. Read this interview with Michael Hudson:
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Hudson has a very good mind; thanks for the link. Cf. the current issue of Harper's where he also appears.
Somebody make a damn prediction and stand behind it.
Niels Bohr, a brilliant Dane who received the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1922 once said,
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future."
So there you have it. You're just asking too much of people.
Roubini says he's not an active investor and spreads his savings in some mixture of index funds. Says if you are an active investor to move to cash.
This Bloomberg headline says it all. Can't wait for CR's post tomorrow.
"Deutsche Bank Posts Unexpected Profit as Rules Limit Writedowns"
Suggest we all start using MSM's convenient causation convention:
"Deutsche bank's stock rose over 8% today on the firm's announcement that it may cut dividend."
OK, once he was righ. not alwasys. and not now. Now that Roubini is a Pop Star it seems he forgot how Capitalism works.