Shadow stats suggest we are already there if not a bit higher. Remember after the period of benefits being exhausted you just are not counted any longer.
The company reported a big third-quarter loss late Wednesday and said that it couldn't gauge the amount of extra capital it has because of market volatility.
I'm assuming that this is mostly currency related. Sucks to have non-yen denominated assets.
If insurance companies fail its going to bring down huge sectors of the economy: law, medicine, finance. The only real option will be for the Government to become the uber insurance company. Anybody who gets paid by these entities will become a Government employee. That's when things start getting real scary.
"Treasury Announces 'Self-Insurance Plan' for Insurers
Hank Paulson announced tday a new plan whereby major insurance companies will be allowed to insure themselves, raising and lowering their self-insurance as much as they need to. 'When the risk of default goes up,' Paulson announced, 'companies raise the declared values of their insurance. This makes the risk of default jerk down. The insurance companies keep up this up and down motion as long as they need to, resulting in a happy ending for the compaines that participate.'"
I've been predicting this for so long I am willing to admit to a stopped clock syndrome. About time. This is the first shoe. For years insurance has been charging low rates because of excellent returns. Now they imagine they can charge high rates to cover insurance costs and recent investment losses. Not.
MS pointed out problems at HIG when it was about 65. Congrats to him. I bought some speculative puts and am up 500%. I should sell soon, instead of being greedy, I suppose.
Sort of on topic. I was at the eye doctor today, and she made some comment about waiting to buy a new car - ya know - cuz of the economy.
I asked if they had seen the appointment bookings drop.
She said yes - big time - for the whole practice (5-6 docs in the practice). Monday, she had 50% pf her appointments canceled. "Who can buy glasses when they can't pay the mortgage?" was her quote.
On October 27, 2008, four affiliates of American International Group, Inc. ("AIG") applied for participation in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Commercial Paper Funding Facility (the "CPFF"). AIG Funding, Inc., International Lease Finance Corporation, Curzon Funding LLC and Nightingale Finance LLC may issue up to approximately $6.9 billion, $5.7 billion, $7.2 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively, of commercial paper under the CPFF
"2:30 p.m. [GM] Six governors ask Treasury for aid to auto makers: WSJ "
Nobody is buying their cars but those men and women who make them got to work to get paid. State has no money to cover any social net costs. They need the tax revunue - not unemployed pissed off people.
A lot of retirees who saw the pension flameout bought annuities from insurance companies. Which money was then invested by the insurance companies and has now been hit hard. Wonder how secure those are now?
Ditto for "stable value" (Guaranteed Insurance Contract) funds in 401ks? You know, the one "safe money" option that they give you? Not so safe?
And then there's folks cutting back on their pay-as-you-go insurance coverages... Wow.
For the rest of us - generational buying opportunity ahead?
Worked for an insurance company 30 years ago as fresh college meat, and the orientation took pains to explain the difference between the insurance industry and gambling. But I could never see any difference.
Besides raising rates, insurance companies will also try to reduce their financial exposure by trimming coverage: dropping risky lines of business etc.
One small example: Out here on the West Coast, most homeowners insurance companies have stopped offering earthquake insurance. The earthquake rider had been about one-third of my premium, even though it had a 15 percent deductible. The companies no longer want my money. They want to trim the potential risk.
"John Stark writes:
Besides raising rates, insurance companies will also try to reduce their financial exposure by trimming coverage: dropping risky lines of business etc."
And don't forget the golden oldie: cutting personnel in Claims.
These guys were all in the business of writing credit default swaps. Their balance sheets are now a black hole. I just wrote about AIG's cds mess, as well as an overview the credit default swap market. Since the CDS market is so interconnected, I don't know how you let one fail without it setting off major losses elsewhere.
It's alarming to look at who the players were in this business. What surprises me most (well not really) is that we haven't heard much about the hedgies YET. In 2006, hedgefunds were selling twice as many credit default swaps as insurance companies.
And just wait until we have a major corporate BK. If GM or Ford go BK, look out...
Ooops, I've been posting the CC on the last thread, but this is interesting and on topic here:
[Tesha Jackson - Columbia Management]
But if you look at your stock right now, basically the market is saying you need to raise capital or thats what the fear is is that you need to raise more capital and that its going to be extremely dilutive to existing shareholders. So I think what were all struggling with is how comfortable can we be that youre not going to come back to the trough basically?
Ramani Ayer
This is a tough question. We have no idea how to answer that question other than to say we will do what we believe at all times to be right from a shareholder perspective. I think what Liz is saying is even at 815 or so our RBC is around 300%. To tell you the truth, thats shocking it quite a bit. I mean 1,165 to 815 is shocking quite a bit. I think to have RBC of 300% feels to me like the system is able to withstand a fair amount of market retrenchment. But I honestly cant categorically sit here and say we will or we wont. You would not want me to say something like that.
[Tesha Jackson - Columbia Management]
I know. I mean I just think thats what were all struggling with here.
It's not that I was any smarter than anyone else......all it took was the ability to wade through the constant BS and deception....and then stick to your guns. If you are right in your analysis you usually are for more then a few day's.... That's all.
I am not a person who thinks my "mad skillz" had everything to do with it..there is a bit of luck involved too. Many trader's or "investor's" fail to realize that part of it...putting any success down to pure skill. It's total bullshit....IMO
If everyone expects interest rates to increase significantly, wouldn't that mean that any model that relies on long term interest rate arbitrage is toast?
Tim writes:
"2:30 p.m. [GM] Six governors ask Treasury for aid to auto makers: WSJ "
I believe it was last year that Congress passed $25 billion for the US car companies. Recently, the lobbying began for another $25 billion projected to passage sometime early next year.
We, the savers, have to work our asses off just to stay even while our government is giving away our money to bankrupt companies, industries, states and individuals.
This is just insane.
How many liabilities can the government (you and I) take on before it just becomes a farce.
More desperate daytraders (and CR-customers)?
More canon fodder for afghanistan?
Roubini (and a lot others) say america needs more enigneers. But as a engineer myself, I can assure you that these people can never be retrained to be engineers. (Worked (retired now) in computer development in a large US company which recruited all it's management from it's own ranks. You could relly see (and they themselfs confessed it) that after half a year, such an engineer-turned-manager was forever lost as engineer; cold not stand anymore the rigors and intelectual demands required for engineering work; was lost to blah,bla,bla aka leadership).
Dow to 9500 today on the anticipation of government largess going to auto and insurance companies! Soon, HP and BB will help municipal bondholders--not municipal governments. Socialism trumps nationalism.
No anti capitalism here. I understand the system, it's necessary injustice and the consequences of revealing the injustice. You have to give the people the illusion of justice, order and regulation. The people will go along with the system if you maintain these illusions. What is being witnessed is suspension of that belief and it will lead to change. Most likely change of an uncomfortable nature.
Power to the people is just another illusion we participate in each election day. We must adhere to the illusion that each of us is important to the process and contribute to the system. If we become apathetic and stop believing then you will have collapse. The US government needs to hold this system together at all costs, to achieve this they have to show the system is regulated and has some egalitarian qualities.
Watching for accountability is my singular sign that this grand experiment will continue. Should this not happen then we will become even more fractured and selfish in our pursuits. Every day I hope this doesn't happen.
Regards,
a person
PS How many posters are just alter egos of Jas Jain?
Alas, anon is engaged in the tragic romance of anticapitalism. In a little minute they get past "all power to the people" and start trying to plan centrally for a large and complex society, and thus study bureaucracy. If they have any insight, shortly thereafter they will figure out that the planning bureaucracy entailed in their mission closely emulates the modern capitalist system in terms of complexity, inefficiency and embedded injustice.
You can't really help people along this trajectory, in my experience.
Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 10.30.08 - 2:30 pm | #
that's 25 Billion to manufacture cars no one wants....
and another 25 Billion for the manufacturers to merge together to make less cars with more facilities....that still no one wants...
....that is called spreading the wealth baby.
the US auto industry is just in transition and needs some down time and wants Uncle Sam to pay for the trip to the country side for a period of recovery and therapy and a gender reassignment.
switching out of petro between the legs ain't easy baby.
Many trader's or "investor's" fail to realize that part of it...putting any success down to pure skill. It's total bullshit....IMO"
if they fail to realize that part of it, they are ... really extra lucky:-) (or perhaps they only believe in bad luck- not good luck)
-trading is skills + the ability to realize quickly when you are wrong and make a "graceful-fast" exit...which is also... skill
good traders do not make dogmatic statements. A trading plan is like a scientific hypothesis, it is a "working model", it is correct... until it no longer is.
AIG is too big to fail and they are blackmailing Uncle Sam....
nope Uncle Sam will purchase out the remainder of AIG....divvy up the good stuff and hand the taxpayers the crap and tell everyone it is a good time to be an American.
Unbelievable video of SoCal forclosures. SoCal Connected tracked down some surreal sights associated with the crisis - a company that specializes in removing whatever people leave behind in their foreclosed homes. The process is called a trashout - a term the company came up with because it perfectly describes what happens. Everything thats left is dumped in a trailer and taken to the landfill. Foreclosure Alley - SoCal Connected
Got some eye popping news for you on the evolution of p&c adjusting:
In British Columbia Canada an Adjuster can:
1. Set aside the right to life (put the insured in harms way)
2. Can assume temp. and full ownership and control of the Insured's propery
3. Can solicit the co-op of the Insured in providing secret kick-backs to suppliers if it mitigates the loss
So long as the Adjuster is acting in the best interests of his/her client - ie the Insurer - these are acceptable business practices
Just got off the phone with the Treasury Dept. You can declare your domicile as a "bank holding company" and qualify for their loan program. Wonderful program.
sc writes: AIG is going down and we are going to have the credit markets seize again.
Don't think AIG proper can fail at this point, but it seems to me that the bigger players will have to segment their books and default on some obligations.
I don't think this will happen until after the election, though.
The decline in insurance company shares, I believe, is in anticipation of the large property/casualty losses that may very well occur on election night.
My unsolicited consumer response: Do not continue with in-line advertising. Nobody makes you accept it but you. It's a big FAT barrier to the perceived value of your unbiased, analytic reporting.
Put Banking News in the margin/masthead queues. Tell the media buyer, "tough tittie. You want context sensitive placement? Front load time-sensitive money."
"removing whatever people leave behind in their foreclosed home"
we had one foreclosure to date in our historic neighborhood. 3 large dumpsters (the big ones) full of crap were hauled out....the crap was paid for by HELOC and they did not have a place to store the crap or apartment big enough to move it to...so it sat...very sad...but the plasma tv did go with them...
short-sale flppers moved in and have Home Depot'd what was a nice Craftsman and trying to turn into a suburban style knock off of a Craftsman....very sad too...i suspect another plasma tv will be installed to promote a sale....
Out here on the West Coast, most homeowners insurance companies have stopped offering earthquake insurance...The companies no longer want my money. They want to trim the potential risk.
They have developed highly accurate earthquake forecasting models, down to neighborhood level.
If everyone expects interest rates to increase significantly, wouldn't that mean that any model that relies on long term interest rate arbitrage is toast?
Jeez, that's just surreal. Is that standard Canadian practice?
Worst that I ever saw in terms of ethics was FLA WC. Employers were obliged to offer voc rehab to employees and teh system had been bastardized to such an extent that adjusters/plaintiff bar would have a veritable poker game with the cash value of the benefits over how long to get someone back to work.
PLTF BAR: My client is severely hobbled and it would take at least 12 months of Voc rehab to find even a job paying 60% wages. We'll take year of benefits+lifetime lost partial wages.
ADJ: I've got a good firm that can find something within three months and etc...
What a zoo.
While traveling down southern US many years ago, saw a tricked out hearse with hammock swinging in the back and the words "workers comp" in detailing on the back door.
MGIC Investment Corp is down 10% and trading at 2.66.
So what happens when these mortgage insurers fail? How sizable is the counter-party risk? Would not Uncle Sam be more interested in preventing the mortgage insurers from going bankrupt?
I heard that not only did that Aflac duck get laid off to save costs, they actually ate him. I guess this is the beginning of the trend of unemployed spokes animals served as snacks in the company lounge. I'd hate to eat in the Disney company lounge right now.
[The decline in insurance company shares, I believe, is in anticipation of the large property/casualty losses that may very well occur on election night.
El Cliffo]
Yes, I fear the same events, like a college bowl game where the looting and destruction occurs win or lose.
I wonder if we get a Katrina-like surprised look out of authorities.
What OTR said, an IV crush will slay - been there - theta not so much, especially at the front end of longer dated contracts (non-linear function of time).
ope Uncle Sam will purchase out the remainder of AIG....divvy up the good stuff and hand the taxpayers the crap and tell everyone it is a good time to be an American.
fallonPDX | 10.30.08 - 3:01 pm
Of course they will tell us the taxpayers will make money from it, though.
Regarding Wachovia layoffs - the local scuttlebutt is that about 5,000 of the 20,000 Charlotte employees will be out in the near term. Long term, probably much worse.
BR, they will figure out that the planning bureaucracy entailed in their mission closely emulates the modern capitalist system in terms of complexity
That idea that an ad hoc system can compete with a planned system at large of complexity is a joke.
The only reason the current system was able to grow so large was because of planning and regulation. An ad hoc "free market" has only EVER worked at small scales.
I am still hoping to make money on my depreciating real estate investments. I think the new plan/facility is called Commercial Real Asset Protection or C.R.A.P.
As in: Oh CRAP! what should I do now?
C.R.A.P. is where Uncle Sam buys my property for what I was told by the bank it was worth when I bought it and plus what their economist projected the equity gain would be around the time my kid goes to college.
Uncle Sam likes to hold bags of crap you know in exchange for bags of cash. He will send his bags out to the taxpayers as a way of spreading the wealth at a later date when Victory Gardens (as in Victory against Deflation) are all the vogue.
Except you do not plant anything in these gardens but just bury crap so as to hyper inflate the cost of basic food stuff, start a new bubble to prop up the economy again, and forget about all that worthless paper (out of sight out of mind).
Read it here first: industrial grown heritage tomatoes are the new hot investment opportunity!
Fallon, Uncle Sam likes to hold bags of crap you know in exchange for bags of cash. He will send his bags out to the taxpayers as a way of spreading the wealth
I'm not sure I can tell the difference between your bags of crap and Uncle Sam's bags of cash anymore.
"Jeez, that's just surreal. Is that standard Canadian practice?"
Dont know.
Worst that I ever saw...
1. Waiting 149 days to confirm coverage
2. Being told your lungs dont matter
3. Having an open claim for 5 years and not having options for p/c insurance
4. Being asked to give kickbacks to the Insurer's sub
5. Being asked to swear (as if under oath) for things I had no knowledge of.
6. Being homeless for 7 months
7. Spending ton of bucks on lawyers to get nowhere.
"good traders do not make dogmatic statements. A trading plan is like a scientific hypothesis, it is a 'working model', it is correct... until it no longer is."
Very important skill, I have learned. An ingrained long or short bias is a big target on your back.
Discipline - the discipline of stops - trumps all conviction.
Also, I think good account management skills can make any trader look better than he really is.
Hartford must be the unnamed insurance company that Congressman (forget who) said was about to go under. How did he know ahead of time? I wonder what this will do to Allianz of Germany tomorrow. AZ just sunk millions into preferred shares of Hartford. Lousy timing, I would say.
The AIG cds article will be posted tomorrow... just realized I didn't specify in my earlier comment. It's written, but not posted... tomorrow morning...
Furst!
Late to the party.
Not surprised about those #s .
can i haz higher premiums?
Aren't these companies diversified with banks, MM, funds, etc???
Why worry? Hank and Bennie's magic money machine will make all the problems go away.
pensionaires disease is spreading like the pox amongst the red people.
CR
Do you still doubt 8% employment? Seems the layoffs are hitting every sector of the economy.
For a fee...I will insure the entire world.
I meant 8% unemployment. If we get to 8% employment we probably won't be using the internet anymore.
How does Berkshire Hathaway avoid getting trashed? I thought it was mostly insurance cos.
"if we get to 8%"
Shadow stats suggest we are already there if not a bit higher. Remember after the period of benefits being exhausted you just are not counted any longer.
Key point that...
Ciao
MS
Thanks CR. Great thread idea, so the traders don't have to mingle with the visionaries.
The company reported a big third-quarter loss late Wednesday and said that it couldn't gauge the amount of extra capital it has because of market volatility.
I'm assuming that this is mostly currency related. Sucks to have non-yen denominated assets.
berkshires different, Warren, beans, and franks.
This is all VW's fault
I hope those ins. co's are in puerta vallarta for their skinny dipping clive dives. cold water shrinks the private parts.
If insurance companies fail its going to bring down huge sectors of the economy: law, medicine, finance. The only real option will be for the Government to become the uber insurance company. Anybody who gets paid by these entities will become a Government employee. That's when things start getting real scary.
yes we wouldn't want to co-mingle at all......
those stupid trader's just don't know anything......
Ciao
MS
whats a good etf for this group?
Here comes the rally. Strap in.
keebler.
Obvious manipulation which is the mechanism to use TARP as a bailout.
Didn't things go bad in a hurry the last time the Phillies won the World Series?
"Treasury Announces 'Self-Insurance Plan' for Insurers
Hank Paulson announced tday a new plan whereby major insurance companies will be allowed to insure themselves, raising and lowering their self-insurance as much as they need to. 'When the risk of default goes up,' Paulson announced, 'companies raise the declared values of their insurance. This makes the risk of default jerk down. The insurance companies keep up this up and down motion as long as they need to, resulting in a happy ending for the compaines that participate.'"
Banking and insurance have always been regulated. Now they will go forward as utilities.
We can complain, but gas, electric and water function pretty well in the US.
I've been predicting this for so long I am willing to admit to a stopped clock syndrome. About time. This is the first shoe. For years insurance has been charging low rates because of excellent returns. Now they imagine they can charge high rates to cover insurance costs and recent investment losses. Not.
MS pointed out problems at HIG when it was about 65. Congrats to him. I bought some speculative puts and am up 500%. I should sell soon, instead of being greedy, I suppose.
10% unemployment will be the bottom...
Anod,
Yep going to stuff this goose with yen 'til it pops lol
market pate
fizzle
Sort of on topic. I was at the eye doctor today, and she made some comment about waiting to buy a new car - ya know - cuz of the economy.
I asked if they had seen the appointment bookings drop.
She said yes - big time - for the whole practice (5-6 docs in the practice). Monday, she had 50% pf her appointments canceled. "Who can buy glasses when they can't pay the mortgage?" was her quote.
This is western suburbs of Boston.
So, when do all of the CDS finally unwind?
MS
I'm well aware of shadow stats and do believe that unemployment is severely underreported, especially the headline number.
CR is basing his 8% unemployment makes a severe recession criteria on the headline number(U3 iirc).
JoGa,
Shorter term, when is/was the Wamu settle?
Ms bailout for HIG?
Only about 31 billion dollars
"Who can buy glasses when they can't pay the mortgage?"
Without glasses, those 401K statements don't look nearly so bad.
So, when do all of the CDS finally unwind?
Soros said never. not the whole thing
On October 27, 2008, four affiliates of American International Group, Inc. ("AIG") applied for participation in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Commercial Paper Funding Facility (the "CPFF"). AIG Funding, Inc., International Lease Finance Corporation, Curzon Funding LLC and Nightingale Finance LLC may issue up to approximately $6.9 billion, $5.7 billion, $7.2 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively, of commercial paper under the CPFF
"2:30 p.m. [GM] Six governors ask Treasury for aid to auto makers: WSJ "
WTF???
Treasury is a payday lender for everyone, except they charge less than prime.
Maybe they shuda bought somma dem credit deefawlt swaps and hedged themselves.
"2:30 p.m. [GM] Six governors ask Treasury for aid to auto makers: WSJ "
Nobody is buying their cars but those men and women who make them got to work to get paid. State has no money to cover any social net costs. They need the tax revunue - not unemployed pissed off people.
"2:30 p.m. [GM] Six governors ask Treasury for aid to auto makers: WSJ "
wait dont tell me lets see Michigan, Ohio, Indiana,
A lot of retirees who saw the pension flameout bought annuities from insurance companies. Which money was then invested by the insurance companies and has now been hit hard. Wonder how secure those are now?
Ditto for "stable value" (Guaranteed Insurance Contract) funds in 401ks? You know, the one "safe money" option that they give you? Not so safe?
And then there's folks cutting back on their pay-as-you-go insurance coverages... Wow.
For the rest of us - generational buying opportunity ahead?
We have lots of bead stores and knitting shops in Portland. They just asked Paulson for some 'loans'. They offer $26 to Treasury for Sauvie Island.
Worked for an insurance company 30 years ago as fresh college meat, and the orientation took pains to explain the difference between the insurance industry and gambling. But I could never see any difference.
Apparently neither can insurance industry execs.
Besides raising rates, insurance companies will also try to reduce their financial exposure by trimming coverage: dropping risky lines of business etc.
One small example: Out here on the West Coast, most homeowners insurance companies have stopped offering earthquake insurance. The earthquake rider had been about one-third of my premium, even though it had a 15 percent deductible. The companies no longer want my money. They want to trim the potential risk.
wait dont tell me lets see Michigan, Ohio, Indiana,
Tim | 10.30.08 - 2:40 pm
I think a Canadian snuck in there also.
"John Stark writes:
Besides raising rates, insurance companies will also try to reduce their financial exposure by trimming coverage: dropping risky lines of business etc."
And don't forget the golden oldie: cutting personnel in Claims.
How does Berkshire Hathaway avoid getting trashed?
A lot less use of CDSs? Or maybe it's the Buffett reality distortion field.
They should just go panhandle the U S government; that is now the acceptable thing to do.
Hank 'The Enabler' will leave quite a legacy.
We're gonna need a bigger helicopter.
The Ruskies made some gigantic helocopters. Treasury should guarantee Russian accounts in return of a 3 year loan of the copters.
No the simplest solution is just deny claims. They have lawyers on staff, you know. Efficiencies of scale.
These guys were all in the business of writing credit default swaps. Their balance sheets are now a black hole. I just wrote about AIG's cds mess, as well as an overview the credit default swap market. Since the CDS market is so interconnected, I don't know how you let one fail without it setting off major losses elsewhere.
It's alarming to look at who the players were in this business. What surprises me most (well not really) is that we haven't heard much about the hedgies YET. In 2006, hedgefunds were selling twice as many credit default swaps as insurance companies.
And just wait until we have a major corporate BK. If GM or Ford go BK, look out...
SpeciousRiches
Specious Riches
SpeciousRiches
I am thinking about declaring major losses, too. I want a bailout.
HEY EVERYONE, DID YOU KNOW SPECIOUS RICHES HAS A WEB PAGE?
Ooops, I've been posting the CC on the last thread, but this is interesting and on topic here:
[Tesha Jackson - Columbia Management]
But if you look at your stock right now, basically the market is saying you need to raise capital or thats what the fear is is that you need to raise more capital and that its going to be extremely dilutive to existing shareholders. So I think what were all struggling with is how comfortable can we be that youre not going to come back to the trough basically?
Ramani Ayer
This is a tough question. We have no idea how to answer that question other than to say we will do what we believe at all times to be right from a shareholder perspective. I think what Liz is saying is even at 815 or so our RBC is around 300%. To tell you the truth, thats shocking it quite a bit. I mean 1,165 to 815 is shocking quite a bit. I think to have RBC of 300% feels to me like the system is able to withstand a fair amount of market retrenchment. But I honestly cant categorically sit here and say we will or we wont. You would not want me to say something like that.
[Tesha Jackson - Columbia Management]
I know. I mean I just think thats what were all struggling with here.
liv-
It's not that I was any smarter than anyone else......all it took was the ability to wade through the constant BS and deception....and then stick to your guns. If you are right in your analysis you usually are for more then a few day's.... That's all.
I am not a person who thinks my "mad skillz" had everything to do with it..there is a bit of luck involved too. Many trader's or "investor's" fail to realize that part of it...putting any success down to pure skill. It's total bullshit....IMO
Ciao
MS
If everyone expects interest rates to increase significantly, wouldn't that mean that any model that relies on long term interest rate arbitrage is toast?
who needs insurance if we have a contraction in the economy that is less than expected?
other stock equities are going UP UP UP
EVEN HOME DEPOT!
sell those pesky insurance stocks and switch to HOME DEPOT as happy days are here again and the economy is sound and housing has reached a bottom!
I can haz blog?
Tim writes:
"2:30 p.m. [GM] Six governors ask Treasury for aid to auto makers: WSJ "
I believe it was last year that Congress passed $25 billion for the US car companies. Recently, the lobbying began for another $25 billion projected to passage sometime early next year.
As I posted in an earlier thread...
We, the savers, have to work our asses off just to stay even while our government is giving away our money to bankrupt companies, industries, states and individuals.
This is just insane.
How many liabilities can the government (you and I) take on before it just becomes a farce.
How does Berkshire Hathaway avoid getting trashed?
They use Goodwill to hide losses
Wall Street Journal :
AmEx to Eliminate 7000 Jobs
what do you do with theese people?
More desperate daytraders (and CR-customers)?
More canon fodder for afghanistan?
Roubini (and a lot others) say america needs more enigneers. But as a engineer myself, I can assure you that these people can never be retrained to be engineers. (Worked (retired now) in computer development in a large US company which recruited all it's management from it's own ranks. You could relly see (and they themselfs confessed it) that after half a year, such an engineer-turned-manager was forever lost as engineer; cold not stand anymore the rigors and intelectual demands required for engineering work; was lost to blah,bla,bla aka leadership).
So, what do you do with these people ?
Dow to 9500 today on the anticipation of government largess going to auto and insurance companies! Soon, HP and BB will help municipal bondholders--not municipal governments. Socialism trumps nationalism.
Byzantine_Ruins,
No anti capitalism here. I understand the system, it's necessary injustice and the consequences of revealing the injustice. You have to give the people the illusion of justice, order and regulation. The people will go along with the system if you maintain these illusions. What is being witnessed is suspension of that belief and it will lead to change. Most likely change of an uncomfortable nature.
Power to the people is just another illusion we participate in each election day. We must adhere to the illusion that each of us is important to the process and contribute to the system. If we become apathetic and stop believing then you will have collapse. The US government needs to hold this system together at all costs, to achieve this they have to show the system is regulated and has some egalitarian qualities.
Watching for accountability is my singular sign that this grand experiment will continue. Should this not happen then we will become even more fractured and selfish in our pursuits. Every day I hope this doesn't happen.
Regards,
a person
PS How many posters are just alter egos of Jas Jain?
Alas, anon is engaged in the tragic romance of anticapitalism. In a little minute they get past "all power to the people" and start trying to plan centrally for a large and complex society, and thus study bureaucracy. If they have any insight, shortly thereafter they will figure out that the planning bureaucracy entailed in their mission closely emulates the modern capitalist system in terms of complexity, inefficiency and embedded injustice.
You can't really help people along this trajectory, in my experience.
Byzantine_Ruins | Homepage | 10.30.08 - 2:30 pm | #
Bob Dobbs:
Was at CIGNA in early '80s and the average caseload of a WC adjuster was north of 800 cases.
Was happy to leave there and go elsewhere with caseload of 300 cases. That was heavy, but manageable.
homedad43 - U were an adjuster?
that's 25 Billion to manufacture cars no one wants....
and another 25 Billion for the manufacturers to merge together to make less cars with more facilities....that still no one wants...
....that is called spreading the wealth baby.
the US auto industry is just in transition and needs some down time and wants Uncle Sam to pay for the trip to the country side for a period of recovery and therapy and a gender reassignment.
switching out of petro between the legs ain't easy baby.
AIG is going down and we are going to have the credit markets seize again.
HIG is down over 90% from peak. Wow.
When does Wachovia announce the layoffs? They still have the Financial Securities people? They must be busy.
Barley:
Started in ceded reinsurance and then moved to commercial multiline adjusting with heavy emphasis in WC.
last job was managing claims programs for multinational telecom.
This beats that by a mile, even on a bad day.
Many trader's or "investor's" fail to realize that part of it...putting any success down to pure skill. It's total bullshit....IMO"
-trading is skills + the ability to realize quickly when you are wrong and make a "graceful-fast" exit...which is also... skill
good traders do not make dogmatic statements. A trading plan is like a scientific hypothesis, it is a "working model", it is correct... until it no longer is.
AIG is too big to fail and they are blackmailing Uncle Sam....
nope Uncle Sam will purchase out the remainder of AIG....divvy up the good stuff and hand the taxpayers the crap and tell everyone it is a good time to be an American.
Unbelievable video of SoCal forclosures. SoCal Connected tracked down some surreal sights associated with the crisis - a company that specializes in removing whatever people leave behind in their foreclosed homes. The process is called a trashout - a term the company came up with because it perfectly describes what happens. Everything thats left is dumped in a trailer and taken to the landfill.
Foreclosure Alley - SoCal Connected
Specious Riches,
Good link on the candidates position on immigration. Nice site.
3pm roller coaster. Hold on.
homedad43
Got some eye popping news for you on the evolution of p&c adjusting:
In British Columbia Canada an Adjuster can:
1. Set aside the right to life (put the insured in harms way)
2. Can assume temp. and full ownership and control of the Insured's propery
3. Can solicit the co-op of the Insured in providing secret kick-backs to suppliers if it mitigates the loss
So long as the Adjuster is acting in the best interests of his/her client - ie the Insurer - these are acceptable business practices
So says the local regulating body.
Just got off the phone with the Treasury Dept. You can declare your domicile as a "bank holding company" and qualify for their loan program. Wonderful program.
You heard it here first.
ova writes:
When does Wachovia announce the layoffs?
Don't worry. It will come.
Nobody buys american CDs, CDOs, etc. anymore!
(except of course your fiend Ben Shalom .)
This was already a CR post.
sc writes:
AIG is going down and we are going to have the credit markets seize again.
Don't think AIG proper can fail at this point, but it seems to me that the bigger players will have to segment their books and default on some obligations.
I don't think this will happen until after the election, though.
So is it the longs or the shorts that collapse like wet noodles today @ 3:45?
The decline in insurance company shares, I believe, is in anticipation of the large property/casualty losses that may very well occur on election night.
Do I dare short brk?
Say, one share?
"Didn't things go bad in a hurry the last time the Phillies won the World Series?"
Yes, but the number of blue whales below latitude forty south also has to fall below five thousand.
What's it going to be today?
Jam, or blam?
My unsolicited consumer response: Do not continue with in-line advertising. Nobody makes you accept it but you. It's a big FAT barrier to the perceived value of your unbiased, analytic reporting.
Put Banking News in the margin/masthead queues. Tell the media buyer, "tough tittie. You want context sensitive placement? Front load time-sensitive money."
rps writes:
"removing whatever people leave behind in their foreclosed home"
we had one foreclosure to date in our historic neighborhood. 3 large dumpsters (the big ones) full of crap were hauled out....the crap was paid for by HELOC and they did not have a place to store the crap or apartment big enough to move it to...so it sat...very sad...but the plasma tv did go with them...
short-sale flppers moved in and have Home Depot'd what was a nice Craftsman and trying to turn into a suburban style knock off of a Craftsman....very sad too...i suspect another plasma tv will be installed to promote a sale....
They have developed highly accurate earthquake forecasting models, down to neighborhood level.
Maybe you should consider moving.
Eric
Flip a coin. And do the opposite.
Just watched that video on foreclosure homes. Incredibly depressing. All that stuff, all the photos, computers, plants, food everything.
Trashed.
Just like our economy.
If everyone expects interest rates to increase significantly, wouldn't that mean that any model that relies on long term interest rate arbitrage is toast?
Sounds just about right to me.
Looks like they're skying it.
Okay, off to the granola mines. See you all late tonight.
Flip a coin. And do this opposite
I've made my bets (mostly short, but I do own 60 Mar09 SPY 130 calls), now I just wait and let theta decay destroy me.
Barley:
I'm so glad that I'm out of the game...
Jeez, that's just surreal. Is that standard Canadian practice?
Worst that I ever saw in terms of ethics was FLA WC. Employers were obliged to offer voc rehab to employees and teh system had been bastardized to such an extent that adjusters/plaintiff bar would have a veritable poker game with the cash value of the benefits over how long to get someone back to work.
PLTF BAR: My client is severely hobbled and it would take at least 12 months of Voc rehab to find even a job paying 60% wages. We'll take year of benefits+lifetime lost partial wages.
ADJ: I've got a good firm that can find something within three months and etc...
What a zoo.
While traveling down southern US many years ago, saw a tricked out hearse with hammock swinging in the back and the words "workers comp" in detailing on the back door.
LOL. What a joke.
MGIC Investment Corp is down 10% and trading at 2.66.
So what happens when these mortgage insurers fail? How sizable is the counter-party risk? Would not Uncle Sam be more interested in preventing the mortgage insurers from going bankrupt?
[More desperate daytraders (and CR-customers)?]
lmao
This just in, Dodd being investigated as a potential friend of Tanzillo:
Feds probe Countrywide's 'VIP' program - Deep Background - msnbc.com
I heard that not only did that Aflac duck get laid off to save costs, they actually ate him. I guess this is the beginning of the trend of unemployed spokes animals served as snacks in the company lounge. I'd hate to eat in the Disney company lounge right now.
T -30 minutes to meltdow
bearly,
the stock market has been dominated by day-traders since it turned to a bear market.
how else to explain a gain after the worst contraction in seven years and several lay-off announcements.
we are looking at gambling addicts in action. these are not folks going long.
come on Home Depot up 4.71%? that is nuts.
ad by google?
[The decline in insurance company shares, I believe, is in anticipation of the large property/casualty losses that may very well occur on election night.
El Cliffo]
Yes, I fear the same events, like a college bowl game where the looting and destruction occurs win or lose.
I wonder if we get a Katrina-like surprised look out of authorities.
Eric, decay on those not a near term problem. Drop in volatility and market direction near term might be. Longer term probably not.
That's the volatility I'm talking about
What OTR said, an IV crush will slay - been there - theta not so much, especially at the front end of longer dated contracts (non-linear function of time).
Thanks,Elvis. Was dozing off but that got a belly laugh.
Afternoon MF tax-loss-selling Sleigh ride...
Hey everybody, why is that little line moving down?
ope Uncle Sam will purchase out the remainder of AIG....divvy up the good stuff and hand the taxpayers the crap and tell everyone it is a good time to be an American.
fallonPDX | 10.30.08 - 3:01 pm
Of course they will tell us the taxpayers will make money from it, though.
OnTheRun: yeah, I know. I was just being silly.
Vega definitely more of a factor up here.
hey it's all Greek to me!
Is there a spokessquirrel? I remember some gophers...
Accountability? Truth in jest, indeed.
For Jerry - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
When's The Treasury gonna bail out the miners?
Forget Home Depot, why are LVS, MGM and WYNN up today so much?
Aren't the stock exchanges enough for some people?
Yellen warns Q4 significant cntraction
Fed's Yellen: Economy worrisome, rates could fall
| Reuters
Regarding Wachovia layoffs - the local scuttlebutt is that about 5,000 of the 20,000 Charlotte employees will be out in the near term. Long term, probably much worse.
Oh crap. Now I'm awake. I forgot my handle. Must hibernate.
Eric, Sorry: Too serious sometimes.
BR, they will figure out that the planning bureaucracy entailed in their mission closely emulates the modern capitalist system in terms of complexity
That idea that an ad hoc system can compete with a planned system at large of complexity is a joke.
The only reason the current system was able to grow so large was because of planning and regulation. An ad hoc "free market" has only EVER worked at small scales.
New Thread
Uncle Ar,
I am still hoping to make money on my depreciating real estate investments. I think the new plan/facility is called Commercial Real Asset Protection or C.R.A.P.
As in: Oh CRAP! what should I do now?
C.R.A.P. is where Uncle Sam buys my property for what I was told by the bank it was worth when I bought it and plus what their economist projected the equity gain would be around the time my kid goes to college.
Uncle Sam likes to hold bags of crap you know in exchange for bags of cash. He will send his bags out to the taxpayers as a way of spreading the wealth at a later date when Victory Gardens (as in Victory against Deflation) are all the vogue.
Except you do not plant anything in these gardens but just bury crap so as to hyper inflate the cost of basic food stuff, start a new bubble to prop up the economy again, and forget about all that worthless paper (out of sight out of mind).
Read it here first: industrial grown heritage tomatoes are the new hot investment opportunity!
GS drops 8% intraday on shareholder fears that they may get away with those damned bonuses.
evidently there is going to be a HUGE amount of skyscraper construction in the next couple quarters - MTW is up 25%.
o hells yes!
I told you I had some faith left in Chuck. He will "challenge Wells Fargo deal"!!!
why are LVS, MGM and WYNN up today so much?
Bernanke announced that the second round of TARP would be jointly managed by LVS, MGM and WYNN.
Bernanke remarked, "We're gonna make you a deal you can't refuse and these guys can make it happen".
Fallon, Uncle Sam likes to hold bags of crap you know in exchange for bags of cash. He will send his bags out to the taxpayers as a way of spreading the wealth
I'm not sure I can tell the difference between your bags of crap and Uncle Sam's bags of cash anymore.
Broward Home writes:
"I'm not sure I can tell the difference between your bags of crap and Uncle Sam's bags of cash anymore."
One tastes better than the other. But not by much.
homedada43
"Jeez, that's just surreal. Is that standard Canadian practice?"
Dont know.
Worst that I ever saw...
1. Waiting 149 days to confirm coverage
2. Being told your lungs dont matter
3. Having an open claim for 5 years and not having options for p/c insurance
4. Being asked to give kickbacks to the Insurer's sub
5. Being asked to swear (as if under oath) for things I had no knowledge of.
6. Being homeless for 7 months
7. Spending ton of bucks on lawyers to get nowhere.
Out on a limb: PCE for Q4 will be closer to -6.3
I'm happy to know my health insurance company raised my premiums so they could gamble away the money in the stock market.
"good traders do not make dogmatic statements. A trading plan is like a scientific hypothesis, it is a 'working model', it is correct... until it no longer is."
Very important skill, I have learned. An ingrained long or short bias is a big target on your back.
Discipline - the discipline of stops - trumps all conviction.
Also, I think good account management skills can make any trader look better than he really is.
Hartford must be the unnamed insurance company that Congressman (forget who) said was about to go under. How did he know ahead of time? I wonder what this will do to Allianz of Germany tomorrow. AZ just sunk millions into preferred shares of Hartford. Lousy timing, I would say.
The AIG cds article will be posted tomorrow... just realized I didn't specify in my earlier comment. It's written, but not posted... tomorrow morning...
SpeciousRiches
Specious Riches
SpeciousRiches