A deal to merge General Motors and Chrysler has hit an impasse after the Bush administration ruled out funding for it, putting any merger on hold until after the U.S. presidential election, three people with direct knowledge of the talks said on Thursday.
Lets throw in the overnight Fed Funds rate, shall we - 30 bps! - and 36 bps the day before that, 64-70 bps below target...yep, things are looking up all over!
Glad to see the 1 month Libor coming down again. My Interest Only ARM is tied to it, and it was up $300 last month. And, I lost my job. Jingle Mail may be here in time for Christmas.
Please help me understand--Why is the effective funds rate below the target? Given the fear banks supposedly have about lending to one another I'd expect it to be above target.
Bernanke is out shilling for continued government backing of GSE debt. Anyone wonder if some foreign central banks have had a thing or two to say about their appetites?
"Please help me understand--Why is the effective funds rate below the target? Given the fear banks supposedly have about lending to one another I'd expect it to be above target."
There is no demand for credit by companies. It's a Japan-style liquidity trap.
With so much government intervention how can we really tell what is a market improvement versus simple government manipulation? Gvt. intervention can't be expected to prop this up indefinitely. I'd like to see the market buying CP, not the Fed. Small steps I guess, but it may just be giving a false sense of security.
There is no demand for credit by companies. It's a Japan-style liquidity trap.
Pissed Off In California | 10.31.08 - 2:56 pm | #
PO'd--
Thanks, but how does the fact that companies don't want to borrow affect the FFR, which applies to loans between banks? If there's no demand for loans, wouldn't that result in no interbank lending at all, as opposed to some at a lower Effective Rate?
Thanks, Rich. I needed the pick up. It almost time to go get drunk and pass out candy because next year there may be no Halloween....and no house from which to distribute the candy...but there's always a way to get drunk.
"Thanks, but how does the fact that companies don't want to borrow affect the FFR, which applies to loans between banks? If there's no demand for loans, wouldn't that result in no interbank lending at all, as opposed to some at a lower Effective Rate?"
I'm probably not going to explain this properly as I always get it mixed up but as far as I understand
FFR should be inline with EFF. If there is no demand for credit (what EFF tracks) then FFR needs to be dropped to juice lending.
This fits neatly with the theory that the FED does not set interest rates, but follows the market.
Right now the market is saying to the FED it doesn't matter how low you drop rates, we're not going to lend.
what PIOC said - pushing on a string - no demand for the volume of funds the banks are awash in...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 10.31.08 - 2:59 pm | #
Ok, I think I get it now. So any loans that do get made are done so at unusually low rates because the borrowing bank has numerous other potential sources it could borrow from?
PeakVT, with retail getting out and the hedgies going to have to delever more...what sustains it? The Fed and Treasury? Per the Bloomberg article, it took four years after 1987, and that was a blip without the economic backdrop of this market...
Stock-Fund Investors Pull Record $70.7 Billion, TrimTabs Says
By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Investors withdrew a record $70.7 billion from U.S. stock mutual funds in October, according to data compiled by TrimTabs Investment Research, raising questions about how long they will stay out of the market.
Redemptions by individual investors and institutions jumped 26 percent from the previous high of $56 billion in September, Conrad Gann, chief operating officer of the Sausalito, California-based firm, said today in an interview.
Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York, said in a note to clients today that it can a long time after losses for individual investors to feel comfortable buying stocks. After the 1987 stock market crash, retail stock-trading levels took four years to recover, he said.
"Ok, I think I get it now. So any loans that do get made are done so at unusually low rates because the borrowing bank has numerous other potential sources it could borrow from?"
No, banks need to lend the money out to make money. No-one wants to borrow from the banks. Well atleast no-one that they would want to lend to going into a recession.
The lowering the FFR the FED is trying to make it cheaper for banks to loan out money. But the EFF at basically 0 is saying that there is no demand on the business side for the credit that the banks are willing to lend.
If there really are no borrowers out there, how is my bank paying 3% interest on my checking and savings accounts? Should I be glad to get it or worried?
Cr says: . I'd like to see the effective funds rate closer to the target rate.
Why? What's wrong with an effective FFR responding to market conditions rather than fiat pronouncement? If anything you should be upset that the FFR is so grossly high relative to the effective rates. If you need a whipping boy how about the myth of prime rate? 3% over the formal FFR? This is supposedly a measured number. Yeah, right. With an effective FFR of 0.36% a real prime as reported by 23 of the 30 to the WSJ would honestly be closer to 2% than the 4% we are suffering with.
Well I am capturing employer match, but it is all going into money market fund atm (with fingers crossed lol)...plenty of time for the inflation play, when the velocity of money picks up and the impacts of the Fed's work to stave off the deflationary credit collapse really kick i
citizen energyecon - I'm just repeating ridiculous bobblehead spewings. My own very uninformed guess is that the market will go up for a bit until people start seeing retail sales results.
The BIGGGG Box Store(The newly built Biger Box Store) is cutting hours in my neighborhood so I was told by an employee..Without jobs there is no winners just looters in Washington.
and to show that I'm human...I make mistakes too. I sold some NFLX NOV 25 calls yesterday.....they are up over 100% as of now. Can't win them all....still made $$ though.
Still playing the same game while you know the outcome is rigged. I'd hazard a guess the self medication by investors has started getting pretty heavy.
Ride this until it crumbles. What else could you do? Really, what other choices could you make?
The rally this week in the face of terrible economic news and indicators made no sense. IMO it was pumping due to Mutual Fund YE &/or the election next Tues. There is no way it lasts long. Those setting up for a sustained 4th wave up through the end of the year are likely to be disappointed.
FFR should be inline with EFF. If there is no demand for credit (what EFF tracks) then FFR needs to be dropped to juice lending.
Technically this means not no demand but less demand than what the Fed is offering. Which, frankly, makes sense because the overnight Fed Funds are hard to use for useful lending - it's really only useful for handling timing goofs and glitches that leave banks short for a few days.
A better solution to the imbalance would be to withdraw some offered funds and use them for something else. You know, make loans when multiple credit markets are still frozen?
"As we have explained in previous months,
revenues would need to grow by 6.1% for the
entire year to meet the budget forecast.
Given the decline of (8.9)% in the first 3 months,
revenues will likely fall significantly short of forecast."
I've been waiting for 9500 to start reload on shorts. It might go up more, but I anticipate the fireworks will start at the latest by early December when they roll out the Black Friday retail numbers.
Nice money if you can get it
and you can get it, if you try.
I haven't had anything to tune in for this regularly in the afternoon since I stopped watching cartoons after getting home from grammar school every day.
It's like we're all members of the Benny & Hankie Club here at CR.
Can the government really sustain the debt needs of the entire economy?
The insanity of all this is that I WANT a safe place to invest my savings. But with massive government interventions across the board, I can't figure it out.
Instead, I'm reduced to being a speculative gambler every day.
The Strong Fundamental writes: I haven't had anything to tune in for this regularly in the afternoon since I stopped watching cartoons after getting home from grammar school every day.
Agreed. It's totally high-concept, with episodes that are completely surreal and unrelated to one-another, and the whole thing is less than a half-hour long.
Of course he does however this is not about sustaining the debt loads of people like you and me.....it's about papering over the debt loads of a select few institutions.
They all know the end game but it's easier to play the patriotism card because that's what most people understand.
Conversations in February are going to end like this:
"but bernancke and paulson said it was all okily-dokily"
It's really no rocket science but they put it out like it is.
"The insanity of all this is that I WANT a safe place to invest my savings. But with massive government interventions across the board, I can't figure it out."
I just rolled some money into 2 CDs. Over that last year I would previously have dutifully examined the bank ratings etc.. to make sure the company was stable.
This time I told my wife screw it, they're all insolvent. So I picked a pretty decent bank that paid a good rate.
My only requirement was no MS or GS CDs. The only thing I would invest in those two monstrosities is puts.
Anything over 9k is "mission accomplished".......IMO
It could sell off to flat and they still win...for the time being. Getting those YE prints above 9k puts off the redemption panic a little further since those start getting mailed out on monday.
If we pay the Masters of the Universe their 50 billion in bonuses now would they go away for the rest of the year and let someone else drive the bus for a while?
I understand the practical, pro forma value of these indicators (believe me, I use them every day). But common sense tells me that using them as a sign of a credit thaw is kind of like trying to read the speedometer of a car that is wrapped around a telephone pole.
The market is awash in liquidity right now, but where is it going?
Guggenheim Structured Real Estate Advisors LLC, the manager of commercial-mortgage funds set up five years ago by Ed Shugrue, asked investors in its second fund for as much as $300 million of new equity to meet margin calls
Even the rich are feeling some pain...no worries they too can get tarped
Bond Girl writes:
I understand the practical, pro forma value of these indicators (believe me, I use them every day). But common sense tells me that using them as a sign of a credit thaw is kind of like trying to read the speedometer of a car that is wrapped around a telephone pole.
Bond Girl: But common sense tells me that using them as a sign of a credit thaw is kind of like trying to read the speedometer of a car that is wrapped around a telephone pole.
But hey, you gotta admit, the engine temp is going down.
But common sense tells me that using them as a sign of a credit thaw is kind of like trying to read the speedometer of a car that is wrapped around a telephone pole.
Oh yes, you do rock.
OK, so what indicator(s) would you suggest instead?
I sure hope the PPT is planning a Wednesday morning stock market crash: 'You dummies elected Obama, well this is what happens to a stock market when you elect an Obama (hard-core Socialist, unlike McCain, our preferred mainstream Socialist).
Shugrue went to the Oregon Investment Council on Oct. 29 to ask for $100 million to supplement Guggenheim Structured Real Estate II, a $770 millon fund raised in 2006. The Oregon council, which invests the state's $54 billion Public Employees Retirement Fund, approved the additional investment ``subject to a few caveats,'' said Ronald Schmitz, Oregon's chief investment officer.
I sure hope the PPT is planning a Wednesday morning stock market crash: 'You dummies elected Obama, well this is what happens to a stock market when you elect an Obama
well gentlepersons, don't forget to set your clocks back this weekend, otherwise you may miss another exciting finish that is sure to please next Monday
A 1987 ponzi scheme resulting in $500 billion dollar taxpayer bailout of S&L's due to McCain's direct interference and deregulation. Senator "Poor Judgement" plans to finish what he started. Maybe his best buddy Keating can be Secretary of Treasury.
After this week's massive juicing I can only imagine how unsettling it might be when the market crashes through right its lows on Nov 5th as Wall St's grim reeper gets annointed...
I don't understand. Why would a single liberal party fully in charge promising higher taxes,more regulation, wealth redistribution, socialism, prosecution of capitalists, et al be a negative for the markets? /snark
If Obama loses it will spark the second American Civil War. Blood will run in the streets, believe me. And it's not a coincidence that President Bush recalled soldiers from Iraq for Dick Cheney to lead against American citizens in the streets.
Yesterday, Jane Fonda sent me an email to tell me that she cried all night and can't cure her ailing back for all the stress that has reduces her to a bundle of nerves.
The benchmark ended the month of October down 24 percent, its biggest monthly fall in its 58-year history as fears over a global recession battered investor willingness to take on riskier assets.
Rob Dawg - I often respect your analysis and opinions, but seeing that the market is little more than a crap-shoot these days, why shouldn't the game be busted up?
Bearly, we need you and AIG to start the snarky witty sarcastic blogging tour. This one today made me laugh.
Kudos
"whooops, running out of green paint. Next can over to the right... red."
One senior adviser told The Times that the first few weeks of the transition, immediately after the election, were critical, "so there's not a vast mood swing from exhilaration and euphoria to despair."
One caveat: the adviser is from McCain's campaign.
In an interview with a Colorado radio station, Obama appeared to be engaged already in expectation lowering. Asked about his goals for the first hundred days, he said he would need more time to tackle such big and costly issues as health care reform, global warming and Iraq.
Oh yeah because global warming in one of the three most pressing and immediate problems necessitating emergency attention. America is bent over the table with gritty vaseline and he's measuring the 'effin drapes for his second term.
Geeze.........where do you start...........federal & private pension plan deficits, increased medicare/medicaid costs with increased patient rolls, near immediate social security funding imbalances, local, state, & federal road, bridge, & highways infrastructure deficiencies, municipal bond defaults, bond insurer bankruptcies, Treasury Bond challenges, plunging real estate values, lessened societal morality norms, familial responsibilities gaps, semi-illiterate young adults & completely functionally illiterate pie-eyed tunnel-vision kids, increasing percentages of breeding age mouth-breathing neanderthals and many more of "your favorite" (fill in the blank) dysfunctions du jour
The reactionary attitudes here truly defy description. If you could only hear yourselves, but the ego's investment in always being right is too strong. You are the victims of your prejudices. 'Never give an inch', that's the motto. What a way to live. I pity you.
Black Star Ranch - Reactionary? Reacting. as in 'reacting' to every bit of bullsh*t anybody tells you, instead of thinking things out for yourself. Any help?
....the definition of the word wasn't what I was questioning. The clarity of thought and process is what confused me.....but then some of my most gratifying conversations are with my milk cow.....speaking of which, I forgot to remind her of something a few minutes ago..
Copper scrap slump worst since 81 by Tom Jennemann
The copper scrap market has ground to a halt as consumer orders all but dry up on the back of slumping demand and tight credit, market participants said.
Chinese scrap buyers seeking to share losses by Shi Lili
Chinese scrap buyers have admitted that they are increasingly likely to default on import contracts as prices slump, but have called on foreign shippers to share the losses and renegotiate contracts.
"Another backlash will come against governments propping up banks and other failed businesses, while letting their populations go hungry.
A fourth backlash will rise up to stop increases in taxes of all sorts and on all levels. They will come. And you can't raise taxes on a people that is losing money and wealth left right and center. Not for long at least.
A fifth backlash, and perhaps the first one to erupt, will involve the $100's of billions in bonuses and other fees that Wall Street intends to spend on its executives and traders. If I were them, I would make sure to loudly proclaim that I have refused my 2008 bonus.
I would almost start to think that the present US government aims to leave a country mired in civil war and martial law come January 20. Just a few weeks ago, I was making lists of countries that were in financial trouble.
Im now considering a list of those where people are about to take to the streets...."
"... The credit crisis is spilling over into the grain industry as international buyers find themselves unable to come up with payment, forcing sellers to shoulder often substantial losses.
Before cargoes can be loaded at port, buyers typically must produce proof they are good for the money. But more deals are falling through as sellers decide they don't trust the financial institution named in the buyer's letter of credit, analysts said.
"There's all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit," said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. "The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy." ..."
First..
You would think I would have thought of something to say for this daily post.
Damn .... fifth.
The PPT is on fire today. EOM positioning, perhaps?
My indicator is that the voices of the bobbleheads have shifted down about half an octave. Smoother sailing for now.
pthhfff (to quote Bill the cat)
The dollar seems to be driving the markets lately.
A deal to merge General Motors and Chrysler has hit an impasse after the Bush administration ruled out funding for it, putting any merger on hold until after the U.S. presidential election, three people with direct knowledge of the talks said on Thursday.
GM, Chrysler Merger on Hold as Aid Hopes Fade: Sources - Automotive * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
No idea why they didn't support this, banks yes, industry no.
My indicator is that the voices of the bobbleheads have shifted down about half an octave. Smoother sailing for now.
I've heard that's what the eye of a hurricane is like.
Lets throw in the overnight Fed Funds rate, shall we - 30 bps! - and 36 bps the day before that, 64-70 bps below target...yep, things are looking up all over!
No idea why they didn't support this, banks yes, industry no.
No former CEO of a big 3 detroit company in the cabinet?
That's Ack! Thhhllllllppt!
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
Glad to see the 1 month Libor coming down again. My Interest Only ARM is tied to it, and it was up $300 last month. And, I lost my job. Jingle Mail may be here in time for Christmas.
Jingle Mail, Jingle Mail...Jingle All The Way.
Oh what fun it will be to walk the fuck away.
Is there any way for an individual investor to place a financial bet on the a2p2 spread narrowing?
Please help me understand--Why is the effective funds rate below the target? Given the fear banks supposedly have about lending to one another I'd expect it to be above target.
Obamageddon--
If you insert the word "just" after "be" in the last line of your song above it scans and sings better.
Bernanke is out shilling for continued government backing of GSE debt. Anyone wonder if some foreign central banks have had a thing or two to say about their appetites?
"Please help me understand--Why is the effective funds rate below the target? Given the fear banks supposedly have about lending to one another I'd expect it to be above target."
There is no demand for credit by companies. It's a Japan-style liquidity trap.
With so much government intervention how can we really tell what is a market improvement versus simple government manipulation? Gvt. intervention can't be expected to prop this up indefinitely. I'd like to see the market buying CP, not the Fed. Small steps I guess, but it may just be giving a false sense of security.
SpeciousRiches
The Strong Fundamental writes:
Obamageddon--
If you insert the word "just" after "be" in the last line of your song above it scans and sings better.
Agreed, or at least a pause.
Shit, I fucked up again. I always do that. Dammit.
A salute to the end of Detroit and the auto industry in the USA.
YouTube - Springsteen "Youngstown" Montage
what PIOC said - pushing on a string - no demand for the volume of funds the banks are awash in...
Jeebus, never thought I would say this but Specious makes me miss the fake paycheck stub clown...
Credit Crisis= Smoke and Mirrors
Too many people/businesses/gov'ts owe too much money.
There is no demand for credit by companies. It's a Japan-style liquidity trap.
Pissed Off In California | 10.31.08 - 2:56 pm | #
PO'd--
Thanks, but how does the fact that companies don't want to borrow affect the FFR, which applies to loans between banks? If there's no demand for loans, wouldn't that result in no interbank lending at all, as opposed to some at a lower Effective Rate?
Newsflash: the new bull is born. October has killed to bear; indicators are moot.
Jeebus, never thought I would say this but Specious makes me miss the fake paycheck stub clown...
Are they in fact distinct?
You didn't fuck up. That's a great jingle. One word didn't kill it.
Is it too early to start gloating about the 400 point up day?
Is it too early to start gloating about the 400 point up day?
What are you talking about? The market does not open for another 50 minutes. Are you on one of those fantasy trading sites?
Thanks, Rich. I needed the pick up. It almost time to go get drunk and pass out candy because next year there may be no Halloween....and no house from which to distribute the candy...but there's always a way to get drunk.
"Thanks, but how does the fact that companies don't want to borrow affect the FFR, which applies to loans between banks? If there's no demand for loans, wouldn't that result in no interbank lending at all, as opposed to some at a lower Effective Rate?"
I'm probably not going to explain this properly as I always get it mixed up but as far as I understand
FFR should be inline with EFF. If there is no demand for credit (what EFF tracks) then FFR needs to be dropped to juice lending.
This fits neatly with the theory that the FED does not set interest rates, but follows the market.
Right now the market is saying to the FED it doesn't matter how low you drop rates, we're not going to lend.
"The PPT is on fire today. EOM positioning, perhaps?"
No that be Japan cutting rates in an attempt to get the carry trade fired back up and hoping we'll buy thier crap. Sneaky little bastards.
what PIOC said - pushing on a string - no demand for the volume of funds the banks are awash in...
citizen energyecon | Homepage | 10.31.08 - 2:59 pm | #
Ok, I think I get it now. So any loans that do get made are done so at unusually low rates because the borrowing bank has numerous other potential sources it could borrow from?
Is it too early to start gloating about the 400 point up day?
Yes, program trading hasn't kicked in yet.
CE--
Thanks.
PeakVT, with retail getting out and the hedgies going to have to delever more...what sustains it? The Fed and Treasury? Per the Bloomberg article, it took four years after 1987, and that was a blip without the economic backdrop of this market...
Stock-Fund Investors Pull Record $70.7 Billion, TrimTabs Says
By Sree Vidya Bhaktavatsalam
Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Investors withdrew a record $70.7 billion from U.S. stock mutual funds in October, according to data compiled by TrimTabs Investment Research, raising questions about how long they will stay out of the market.
Redemptions by individual investors and institutions jumped 26 percent from the previous high of $56 billion in September, Conrad Gann, chief operating officer of the Sausalito, California-based firm, said today in an interview.
Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York, said in a note to clients today that it can a long time after losses for individual investors to feel comfortable buying stocks. After the 1987 stock market crash, retail stock-trading levels took four years to recover, he said.
Stock-Fund Investors Pull Record $70.7 Billion, TrimTabs Says - Bloomberg.com
I know a lot of people piling into the markets. They're pretty sure this is 1987 all over again.
Buy the dips, young man. You'll be rich.
I'm just thankful for the opp. to reload. That's how you have to look at this. Where's the volume?
And still Put spreads are ridiculous...
asks rise but bids stay static. Tells you alot IMO.
Ciao
MS
with retail getting out and the hedgies going to have to delever more...what sustains it?
Mandatory 401(k) investments?
Maybe the bail-out money's being used to keep the market afloat, one way, or another.
What time does the FDIC usually deliver the pizza?
FDIC: Failed Bank List
Obamageddon,
LOL! (at your humor not current predicament!)
Good luck!
......
"Ok, I think I get it now. So any loans that do get made are done so at unusually low rates because the borrowing bank has numerous other potential sources it could borrow from?"
No, banks need to lend the money out to make money. No-one wants to borrow from the banks. Well atleast no-one that they would want to lend to going into a recession.
The lowering the FFR the FED is trying to make it cheaper for banks to loan out money. But the EFF at basically 0 is saying that there is no demand on the business side for the credit that the banks are willing to lend.
If there really are no borrowers out there, how is my bank paying 3% interest on my checking and savings accounts? Should I be glad to get it or worried?
Cr says: . I'd like to see the effective funds rate closer to the target rate.
Why? What's wrong with an effective FFR responding to market conditions rather than fiat pronouncement? If anything you should be upset that the FFR is so grossly high relative to the effective rates. If you need a whipping boy how about the myth of prime rate? 3% over the formal FFR? This is supposedly a measured number. Yeah, right. With an effective FFR of 0.36% a real prime as reported by 23 of the 30 to the WSJ would honestly be closer to 2% than the 4% we are suffering with.
I'm just thankful for the opp. to reload. That's how you have to look at this. Where's the volume?
I'm just trying to decide when to pull the reload trigger. Could be Nov 5, or maybe it waits till next year.
Somebody started buying oil big-time.
Tom B-
Both....they need the deposits and you need a place to put it.
Ciao
MS
Basel,
Well I am capturing employer match, but it is all going into money market fund atm (with fingers crossed lol)...plenty of time for the inflation play, when the velocity of money picks up and the impacts of the Fed's work to stave off the deflationary credit collapse really kick i
citizen energyecon - I'm just repeating ridiculous bobblehead spewings. My own very uninformed guess is that the market will go up for a bit until people start seeing retail sales results.
jp-
Layer into them. You're not going to get top or bottom on both sides. Patience is the key....
Ciao
MS
For Halloween I'm giving the kids Lehman CDS's - I got a huge bowl full of em.. they were on sale recently you know..
"p
With respect to the collapsed U.S. Little Three Auto Manufacturers, David Bowie put it best in
Panic Detroit
Have a default-free weekend.
Cheers,
Килгор Траут
PeakVT,
'scuse me!
MS: Wise words.
Iwasawa : For Halloween I'm giving the kids Lehman CDS's - I got a huge bowl full of em.. they were on sale recently you know..
Definitely counts as "trick".
Dude on CNBC saying we are going to have one of the worst recessions ever. Market up 244. WTF?
trout-
I'm amazed devil's night was so quiet...especially with all that available kindling.
Ciao
MS
Iwasawa: Aren't those things supposed to be "toxic"? You're gonna have the cops over there before it's over.
"Dude on CNBC saying we are going to have one of the worst recessions ever. Market up 244. WTF?"
Obviously the due is not a patriot. Send him to a Palin rally and knock some sense into him!
But the EFF at basically 0 is saying that there is no demand on the business side for the credit that the banks are willing to lend
So the only way to create demand is to hand it out as bonuses to Kash-n-Karry's friends?
What's a "due?"
It's all priced in already. BULL ON!
jp-
I've made a few purchases but by no means am I through. This may last...it may not. I'll not overbuy today or next week though.
Ciao
MS
Tom - Lehman CDS's have been detoxified.. I flushed them through the FED first.
thank you to everyone making SRS cheap again. You are too kind. Keep up the good work.
The BIGGGG Box Store(The newly built Biger Box Store) is cutting hours in my neighborhood so I was told by an employee..Without jobs there is no winners just looters in Washington.
Apartments, are you talking your book? Or are you just stupid?
and to show that I'm human...I make mistakes too. I sold some NFLX NOV 25 calls yesterday.....they are up over 100% as of now. Can't win them all....still made $$ though.
Ciao
MS
This fine rally day may not even keep it green today.
Of course, we don't what happens until the wheel starts spinning at 3:50PM.
Come on big money.
Cognitive dissonance.
Still playing the same game while you know the outcome is rigged. I'd hazard a guess the self medication by investors has started getting pretty heavy.
Ride this until it crumbles. What else could you do? Really, what other choices could you make?
Just having fun. I'm not invested.
The rally this week in the face of terrible economic news and indicators made no sense. IMO it was pumping due to Mutual Fund YE &/or the election next Tues. There is no way it lasts long. Those setting up for a sustained 4th wave up through the end of the year are likely to be disappointed.
I'm buying more puts today, and again on Tuesday.
Great article about realizing the data is bad but using it anyway.
Dissociative Disorder: Compliance, Data Quality, and Cognitive Dissonance: TDWI
The strange attractor of 8800 once again exerts it's dark matter gravitational pull to reassert the cliff ledge range decreed by the PPT.
Where's the news on the CDS market? Shouldn't this be a big story?
Now the crash hits home in Arizona:
http://www.azleg.gov/jlbc/mfh-oct-08.pdf
Fresh off the press:
Lowlights include sales tax collapses for Autos -28% YOY for September!!!
This is very bad- I guess we shall see a huge federal bailout for the states starting in January.
Someday this war's gonna end...
An exceptionally tricky close today.
FFR should be inline with EFF. If there is no demand for credit (what EFF tracks) then FFR needs to be dropped to juice lending.
Technically this means not no demand but less demand than what the Fed is offering. Which, frankly, makes sense because the overnight Fed Funds are hard to use for useful lending - it's really only useful for handling timing goofs and glitches that leave banks short for a few days.
A better solution to the imbalance would be to withdraw some offered funds and use them for something else. You know, make loans when multiple credit markets are still frozen?
Somebody HELP!!! There's MAN on the wing of the thread!!!
AllenM,
"As we have explained in previous months,
revenues would need to grow by 6.1% for the
entire year to meet the budget forecast.
Given the decline of (8.9)% in the first 3 months,
revenues will likely fall significantly short of forecast."
Understatement of the Year.
Watching this and shaking my head.
I've been waiting for 9500 to start reload on shorts. It might go up more, but I anticipate the fireworks will start at the latest by early December when they roll out the Black Friday retail numbers.
Nice money if you can get it
and you can get it, if you try.
It's all priced in already. BULL ON!
Apparently the value of it varies frequently.
AllenM writes:
Now the crash hits home in Arizona:
Lowlights include sales tax collapses for Autos -28% YOY for September!!!
What is Arizona but Inland California? Not to worry, it is contained to just a few States.
Re: The daily fireworks at the close
I haven't had anything to tune in for this regularly in the afternoon since I stopped watching cartoons after getting home from grammar school every day.
It's like we're all members of the Benny & Hankie Club here at CR.
Can the government really sustain the debt needs of the entire economy?
The insanity of all this is that I WANT a safe place to invest my savings. But with massive government interventions across the board, I can't figure it out.
Instead, I'm reduced to being a speculative gambler every day.
I wonder if deep down, Bernanke has a clue.
Well, if the debt needs go down enough. . .
MS writes:
Tom B-
Both....they need the deposits and you need a place to put it.
Ciao
MS
MS | 10.31.08 - 3:13 pm | #
If you don't have money, you have nothing to lose!
lol
That's not progress we can believe in.
I wonder if deep down, Bernanke has a clue.
Mr. Beach | 10.31.08 - 3:37 pm | #
I wonder if on any level BB has a clue.
What is the dollar upto today?
Oil has moved $6 up so far
The Strong Fundamental writes:
I haven't had anything to tune in for this regularly in the afternoon since I stopped watching cartoons after getting home from grammar school every day.
Agreed. It's totally high-concept, with episodes that are completely surreal and unrelated to one-another, and the whole thing is less than a half-hour long.
What is the reaction of your friends and peers over the past month?
I'm hearing a lot of "well, we're delaying our ____ purchases". I'm not hearing much worries about jobs just yet.
I wonder if deep down, Bernanke has a clue. - Mr. Beach
Dr. B is by far the most qualified person ever to address the problems in the US economy should we ever revisit the conditions of 1929.
"I wonder if deep down, Bernanke has a clue."
Of course he does however this is not about sustaining the debt loads of people like you and me.....it's about papering over the debt loads of a select few institutions.
They all know the end game but it's easier to play the patriotism card because that's what most people understand.
Conversations in February are going to end like this:
"but bernancke and paulson said it was all okily-dokily"
It's really no rocket science but they put it out like it is.
Ciao
MS
"The insanity of all this is that I WANT a safe place to invest my savings. But with massive government interventions across the board, I can't figure it out."
I just rolled some money into 2 CDs. Over that last year I would previously have dutifully examined the bank ratings etc.. to make sure the company was stable.
This time I told my wife screw it, they're all insolvent. So I picked a pretty decent bank that paid a good rate.
My only requirement was no MS or GS CDs. The only thing I would invest in those two monstrosities is puts.
Anonymous writes:
MS writes:
Tom B-
Both....they need the deposits and you need a place to put it.
Ciao
MS
MS | 10.31.08 - 3:13 pm | #
If you don't have money, you have nothing to lose!
theme music
YouTube -
Damning with faint praise, Dawg?
From an indicator standpoint we should go out on the highs. What actually happens remains a complete mystery LOL.
Damning with faint praise, Dawg?
sm_landlord
History will do the damning. I am but the messenger.
Mr. Beach,
"I wonder if deep down, Bernanke has a clue."
My understanding is that no one will even rent him one.
Nostrovia,
Anything over 9k is "mission accomplished".......IMO
It could sell off to flat and they still win...for the time being. Getting those YE prints above 9k puts off the redemption panic a little further since those start getting mailed out on monday.
Ciao
MS
Idea for Safe Bank:Canadian Tire...they print their own money
Idea for a Self-Help group:
BillPayer's Anonymous
I suppose, we're all just talking about the enabling forces of the elephant in the room: the US Treasury bubble.
I wonder if that keeps Bernanke awake at night. Of course, he did outline his "Global Savings Glut" theory some years ago. So maybe not.
whooops, running out of green paint. Next can over to the right... red.
ended Sept at 10850
ended Aug at 11543
ending Oct at ~10400?
Indicators just veered into the ditch.
Note to self: Don't try to trade month end in this mess.
edit: ending Oct at ~9400?
what was that about selling off to flat?
Ciao
MS
Is the market finally open?
9200?
Anybody got CNBS on? Is Maria starting to snivel? Mascara getting a bit runny?
paint tape, meet crowded exit - crowded exit, paint tape...
Mr. Beach writes:
Is the market finally open?
No, Market opens at 3:50PM. The last 6+ hours are just a form of futures speculation.
Weeeeeeee!
This roller sure has some steep drops.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
Market Open: 3 minutes
If we pay the Masters of the Universe their 50 billion in bonuses now would they go away for the rest of the year and let someone else drive the bus for a while?
Headed back up again.
You'll buy the whole seat on the trading floor but you'll only need the edge!
Will it have maintained trend long enough for me to type this?
Will it have maintained trend long enough for me to type this? - Byzantine_Ruins
Apparently not.
hank to ppt: step on it
Market is open, place your bets.
Thank you for flying with CR Airline 1031. We will be landing in five minutes.
Please check at this time to make sure your seat belts are securely fastened and your tray tables and seat backs are in the up-right position.
The captain request that you unwind your short positions and turn off your electronic devices until the landing is complete.
NFL gets 2B under TARP
it's buy the dip time
I want $5,000 on black, $2,000 each on 00, 7, and 28.
I'm feeling a plunge coming on...
I understand the practical, pro forma value of these indicators (believe me, I use them every day). But common sense tells me that using them as a sign of a credit thaw is kind of like trying to read the speedometer of a car that is wrapped around a telephone pole.
The market is awash in liquidity right now, but where is it going?
It's going to close flat....
IMO
Ciao
MS
I'm taking Red #3, #5, and #26.
Post-close adjustment?
NO WHAMMIES NO WHAMMIES NO WHAMMIES, STOP!!!!
Apparently not.
No. It was reading +8x, then I came back and it was still +8x but the graph was still plotting out +5x.
God it must suck to be working a trading floor right now.
No wonder Vegas is in the tank when you can play craps from your very own living room.
Whoever was predicting the DOW up 400 for the day seems to have overestimated the powers of the PPT.
down 14% this month?
Guggenheim Structured Real Estate Advisors LLC, the manager of commercial-mortgage funds set up five years ago by Ed Shugrue, asked investors in its second fund for as much as $300 million of new equity to meet margin calls
Even the rich are feeling some pain...no worries they too can get tarped
Guggenheim Fund Seeking $300 Million of New Equity (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Next time we have a run-up to a depression, I intend to trade shorts, not just hold them.
This is irritating, waiting for the plunge.
God it must suck to be working a trading floor right now. - Byzantine_Ruins
The floor can only watch as their digital masters do their damage.
Bond Girl writes:
I understand the practical, pro forma value of these indicators (believe me, I use them every day). But common sense tells me that using them as a sign of a credit thaw is kind of like trying to read the speedometer of a car that is wrapped around a telephone pole.
BG--
Wonderful analogy!
Bond Girl:
But common sense tells me that using them as a sign of a credit thaw is kind of like trying to read the speedometer of a car that is wrapped around a telephone pole.
But hey, you gotta admit, the engine temp is going down.
black halo-
That was a very long time ago....over an hour ago...
Ciao
MS
Bond Girl --
But common sense tells me that using them as a sign of a credit thaw is kind of like trying to read the speedometer of a car that is wrapped around a telephone pole.
Oh yes, you do rock.
OK, so what indicator(s) would you suggest instead?
Yep, you are probably right, MS, glide slope to a gentle 'little change' close.
bingo
B: Pinky, are you thinking what I'm thinking?
P: I think so Brain but don't we need an uptick first?
350 up. All aboard
Hold on tight, everyone....
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Here's where we get swamped with a bunch of high price, low volume bids
Here comes the Viagra.
Another 200 to go, just not sure which way.
too funny.....gotta love it.
Ciao
MS
Look at 'er go! And who is buying all the REIT stocks? VNQ up over 41, from below 33 on Tuesday.
PPT: "You will respect my authoritahh"
spike at 3:58 awesome
Hilarious, almost.
What's a little money among friends?
So this is where all the money not being lent is going.
The spikes kill me. Like there are that many people that are just itching to get in at the last minute on a Friday.
yawn
Paint the tape, paint the tape! Come on guys, we can do it!
Marvelous.
And CNBS (except for Haines) will be talking about how the bottom is in and it's up up and away.
Nostrovia,
it would be totally hilarious if it weren't our money they did it with...
Ooooo. look at C go..
Ciao
MS
I would take it as a sign of a thaw if actual investors returned to the credit markets in force.
Couldn't even close above Tuesday's high, w/ lighter volume = thumbs dow
Greyhound racing at its finest.
I sure hope the PPT is planning a Wednesday morning stock market crash: 'You dummies elected Obama, well this is what happens to a stock market when you elect an Obama (hard-core Socialist, unlike McCain, our preferred mainstream Socialist).
but those statements will look much better then last week. -10% is still better than -15%.
Ciao
MS
Why does SRS show a bid of 116 and an ask of 116.95 but a last of 115?
Bond Girl writes:
I would take it as a sign of a thaw if actual investors returned to the credit markets in force.
I hope you brought a camp chair and a lunch.
Wow! What an insane finish! For a few second there I thought I was going to be eating my words.
Is Halloween how the habit of expecting a handout got started?
Alright folks, have a good weekend and I'll see you Monday. Same bat-time, same bat-channel!
The fundamentals are strong: from 3:58 to 4:00pm on the exchange
tough day to get on the right side of. SRS & TWM were singled out for a bruising...
Guggenheim Fund Seeks Up to $300 Million to Meet Margin Calls
Guggenheim Fund Seeking $300 Million of New Equity (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Shugrue went to the Oregon Investment Council on Oct. 29 to ask for $100 million to supplement Guggenheim Structured Real Estate II, a $770 millon fund raised in 2006. The Oregon council, which invests the state's $54 billion Public Employees Retirement Fund, approved the additional investment ``subject to a few caveats,'' said Ronald Schmitz, Oregon's chief investment officer.
oh lookey they even managed to get 7.25% on wittle 'ole HIG.
Ciao
MS
And CNBS (except for Haines) will be talking about how the bottom is in and it's up up and away.
Nostrovia,
Corpse Misean is Dope | 10.31.08 - 4:05 pm | #
That's what they just said.
I sure hope the PPT is planning a Wednesday morning stock market crash: 'You dummies elected Obama, well this is what happens to a stock market when you elect an Obama
I'm pulling an Anonymouse.
RON PAUL WILL WIN! Count on it.
well gentlepersons, don't forget to set your clocks back this weekend, otherwise you may miss another exciting finish that is sure to please next Monday
There are two types of people in this world. Those with access to the Fed and those without.
Whatev,
Seriously?
Bwahahahahahahahahahhahahahaha!
KNURD!
Nostrovia,
"unlike McCain, our preferred mainstream Socialist"
A 1987 ponzi scheme resulting in $500 billion dollar taxpayer bailout of S&L's due to McCain's direct interference and deregulation. Senator "Poor Judgement" plans to finish what he started. Maybe his best buddy Keating can be Secretary of Treasury.
fake seb's world,
Interesting your conception of the flow of time. I'm all into SciFi time distortion stuff, but if don't set your clocks BACK, then you'd be early.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
I gotta get unknurd. Who's buying?
After this week's massive juicing I can only imagine how unsettling it might be when the market crashes through right its lows on Nov 5th as Wall St's grim reeper gets annointed...
Well that's egg on my face. I'm the one with the warped time.
Gotta get that right one of these days. I did that in March too IIRC.
KKnurd!
Nostrovia,
Ken Denninger, in alluding to Barney Franks reelection prospects, said this:
I think we the people can keep that straight
Seems a little insensitive, Ken.
Vote the ONE
I'm the one with the warped time.
It's the knurd. Everything is flowing opposite.
I don't understand. Why would a single liberal party fully in charge promising higher taxes,more regulation, wealth redistribution, socialism, prosecution of capitalists, et al be a negative for the markets? /snark
Outsider,
I made one <a href="http://haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/3338741852752592007?dt=1225495734#696961>decent call today.
Erica Jong Tells Italians Obama Loss 'Will Spark the Second American Civil War. Blood Will Run in the Streets' | The New York Observer
If Obama loses it will spark the second American Civil War. Blood will run in the streets, believe me. And it's not a coincidence that President Bush recalled soldiers from Iraq for Dick Cheney to lead against American citizens in the streets.
Yesterday, Jane Fonda sent me an email to tell me that she cried all night and can't cure her ailing back for all the stress that has reduces her to a bundle of nerves.
OMG...Jane Fonda is stressed!
HONEY! GET THE GUNS!
The benchmark ended the month of October down 24 percent, its biggest monthly fall in its 58-year history as fears over a global recession battered investor willingness to take on riskier assets.
Anonymouse, just teasing you. You keep at it.
B:Pinky, are you pondering what Im pondering?
P:I think so, Brain, but what if Paulson wont wear the beach thong?
Rob Dawg - I often respect your analysis and opinions, but seeing that the market is little more than a crap-shoot these days, why shouldn't the game be busted up?
I gotta get unknurd. Who's buying?
The Federal Reserve, I'd imagine.
You missed the memo.
Bearly, we need you and AIG to start the snarky witty sarcastic blogging tour. This one today made me laugh.
Kudos
"whooops, running out of green paint. Next can over to the right... red."
A Question for A.I.G.: Where Did the Cash Go?
Where Did the Cash Go? - NY Times
The next week will be all about Baltic Dry Index and trade flows.
Change ? What change ? Wait, we'll find out after the 5th.
"Obama Lays Plans to Kill Expectations After Election Victory"
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/31/obama-lays-plans-kill-expectations-election-victory/
One senior adviser told The Times that the first few weeks of the transition, immediately after the election, were critical, "so there's not a vast mood swing from exhilaration and euphoria to despair."
One caveat: the adviser is from McCain's campaign.
I prefer my fake news from The Onion.
In an interview with a Colorado radio station, Obama appeared to be engaged already in expectation lowering. Asked about his goals for the first hundred days, he said he would need more time to tackle such big and costly issues as health care reform, global warming and Iraq.
Oh yeah because global warming in one of the three most pressing and immediate problems necessitating emergency attention. America is bent over the table with gritty vaseline and he's measuring the 'effin drapes for his second term.
TJ,
"The next week will be all about Baltic Dry Index and trade flows."
It's going to all about the election. That's scary stuff. It'll be burried where only bears will find it.
Knurd!
Nostrovia,
ch-ch-ch - Fox News? Gimmie a break
Wait, I like my news from such teenage luminaries as Dike Maddow and Keith Uberduped.
Dammit - now I can't get Panic in Detroit out of my head.
I'm doing my civic duty to letting everyone know there's a new thread
Geeze.........where do you start...........federal & private pension plan deficits, increased medicare/medicaid costs with increased patient rolls, near immediate social security funding imbalances, local, state, & federal road, bridge, & highways infrastructure deficiencies, municipal bond defaults, bond insurer bankruptcies, Treasury Bond challenges, plunging real estate values, lessened societal morality norms, familial responsibilities gaps, semi-illiterate young adults & completely functionally illiterate pie-eyed tunnel-vision kids, increasing percentages of breeding age mouth-breathing neanderthals and many more of "your favorite" (fill in the blank) dysfunctions du jour
More Bearish Than Roubini
.......I need to go talk to my cow..........
changes- both are equally baised. What's wrong with AP or Reuters?
NEWS ALERT:
Fox News calls it for Obama
Greata to do election night voice over of honored rerun of the One infomercial.
ORielly names Obama patriot of the year.
Hannity and Colmes to be renamed Fantasy and Colmes.
The reactionary attitudes here truly defy description. If you could only hear yourselves, but the ego's investment in always being right is too strong. You are the victims of your prejudices. 'Never give an inch', that's the motto. What a way to live. I pity you.
Reactionary?
The last time I heard that....wait, I never heard that because that term went out of use about 30 or 40 years ago, no?
Hey! Where'd everybody go?
giacutter - it went out of use but that doesn't mean it doesn't still apply
Hey! Where'd everybody go?
Contemplating your words of wisdom in the silence of solitude, no doubt.
....just curious, curious....what the hell does that mean in "old grumpy white guy" language??
Black Star Ranch - Reactionary? Reacting. as in 'reacting' to every bit of bullsh*t anybody tells you, instead of thinking things out for yourself. Any help?
....the definition of the word wasn't what I was questioning. The clarity of thought and process is what confused me.....but then some of my most gratifying conversations are with my milk cow.....speaking of which, I forgot to remind her of something a few minutes ago..
....until a future lucid moment of yours...
Black Star - If you are having fruitful conversations with your cow, you are doing better than most, IMHO.
Good news if the house hasn't had all its plumbing and wiring ripped out of the walls just yet:
AMM.com
Copper scrap slump worst since 81 by Tom Jennemann
The copper scrap market has ground to a halt as consumer orders all but dry up on the back of slumping demand and tight credit, market participants said.
Chinese scrap buyers seeking to share losses by Shi Lili
Chinese scrap buyers have admitted that they are increasingly likely to default on import contracts as prices slump, but have called on foreign shippers to share the losses and renegotiate contracts.
http://www.uclick.com/feature/08/10/31/jd081031.gif
CR, Tanta, hosts --
could you add something about actual food shipment to your "indicators" list?
The Automatic Earth
"Another backlash will come against governments propping up banks and other failed businesses, while letting their populations go hungry.
A fourth backlash will rise up to stop increases in taxes of all sorts and on all levels. They will come. And you can't raise taxes on a people that is losing money and wealth left right and center. Not for long at least.
A fifth backlash, and perhaps the first one to erupt, will involve the $100's of billions in bonuses and other fees that Wall Street intends to spend on its executives and traders. If I were them, I would make sure to loudly proclaim that I have refused my 2008 bonus.
I would almost start to think that the present US government aims to leave a country mired in civil war and martial law come January 20. Just a few weeks ago, I was making lists of countries that were in financial trouble.
Im now considering a list of those where people are about to take to the streets...."
and
Financial Post Story
"... The credit crisis is spilling over into the grain industry as international buyers find themselves unable to come up with payment, forcing sellers to shoulder often substantial losses.
Before cargoes can be loaded at port, buyers typically must produce proof they are good for the money. But more deals are falling through as sellers decide they don't trust the financial institution named in the buyer's letter of credit, analysts said.
"There's all kinds of stuff stacked up on docks right now that can't be shipped because people can't get letters of credit," said Bill Gary, president of Commodity Information Systems in Oklahoma City. "The problem is not demand, and it's not supply because we have plenty of supply. It's finding anyone who can come up with the credit to buy." ..."