Hmmm... I seem to recall posting (and reposting) how my TA work (confirmed with fundamentals) were showing the market carnage was imminent, being accompanied by the USD/YEN breaking its monster bearish flag (heading toward 84, in agreement with energyecon). And someone named 'Jas' said technical analysis was for simpletons. Anyone know who this 'Jas' is or the record of his timing forecasts?
For the record, I don't usually day trade. The bulk of my account is swing trading intermediate moves. I've ridden my current longs of SDS, DXD, TWM, and QID for about 3 weeks now (but got a good price for them).
Anonymouse, I wouldn't worry about Jas. Your TA predictions that I've read have been on the money and they are always a pleasure to read. Keep up the good work!
day traders aren't doing very well either.....unless of course they have "help".
Some "happy" news this evening will almost certainly be released to counter this. At this point the institutions are in control....have been for some time now.
Does anyone think this will really happen on Feb 1st?
ECB Will Tighten Lending Rules to Stop Bank Abuse
ECB Will Tighten Lending Rules to Stop Bank Abuse (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Trichet said he'll make it more expensive for banks to borrow from the ECB against most asset-based securities from Feb. 1. The ECB will increase the so-called `haircut' on the securities to 12 percent from as little as 2 percent, meaning it will lend just 88 percent of the value of the paper. Paper without a market price faces an additional 4.4 percent discount.
I hate doing predictions, especially on a daily basis, but I'm going to say that we've seen the bottom for today. DJIA may go a tad lower than 11,189 but not much.....
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/05/business/economy/05stox.html?hp>This story on NYTimes.com is highlighted on the front page with: A broad sell-off sent the Dow Jones industrial average down 230 points in morning trading, but few investors seemed to know why.
When markets make sizable moves on declining/lower benchmarked volume - as occurred throughout August (and I highlighted on CR many times), markets can then fall apart with rapidity - but should still be accompanied by increasing qaulity of volume - as has occurred this week and today.
Fast price moves make dumb money jump in; so when everyone saw S&P go from 1200 intraday to 1313 in 3&1/2 weeks, people take notice - and only then go long. And the same thing happened with oil/commodities. Nothing personal against commodity bulls, but they had a nice run and have to correct; it's healthy in the long run (assuming their long run isn't over).
consumers and businesses are battening down the hatches and reefing in their sails.
The prices of Chinese and other emerging country labor and inputs we have come to depend on have been rising;
business margins are being squeezed; consumers are suffering from declining real incomes;
savers and investors are confronted with negative real rates of return.
One wonders which, if ANY, Fisher believes will turn around so that his 'prediction' of 'some time in 2009' for a snappier cruising speed has ANY believability.
These two requirements must be satisfied, in the main, by the individuals who claim and hold control of the great industrial and financial combinations, which dominate so large a part of our industrial life. They have undertaken to be not businessmen, but princes princes of property. I am not prepared to say that the system which produces them is wrong. I am very clear that they must fearlessly and competently assume the responsibility which goes with the power. So many enlightened businessmen know this that the statement would be little more than a platitude, were it not for an added implication.
This implication is, briefly, that the responsible heads of finance and industry instead of acting each for himself, must work together to achieve the common end. They must, where necessary, sacrifice this or that private advantage; and in reciprocal selfdenial must seek a general advantage. It is here that formal government political government, if you choose, comes in. Whenever in the pursuit of this objective the lone wolf, the unethical competitor, the reckless promoter, the Ishmael or Insull whose hand is against every mans, declines to join in achieving an end recognized as being for the public welfare, and threatens to drag the industry back to a state of anarchy, the government may properly be asked to apply restraint. Likewise, should the group ever use its collective power contrary to the public welfare, the government must be swift to enter and protect the public interest."
Most of it is quite relevant to today, though times have changed and the world is different, but the matter of public welfare vs private interest will not be denied its place. Especially as it becomes clear how much we the public are expected to provide in welfare for today's private princes who have treated the republic as their own model of the Titanic.
Its extremely easy to be a blog reader with no career or political hide to lose when telling the truth. Its almost as easy to be an anonymous blogger and thus with no career or political hide to lose when telling the truth. The hardest is to be a mid-career experienced policymaker with mucho-career and political hide to lose when publicly telling truths.
Fisher is a near-retired guy, and still has some political hide to lose when publicly telling truths.
I admire Fisher's May 2008 speech, press release, and web offering, "Storms on the Horizon", on the pressing need to address the $99 trillion in unfunded long-term federal liabilities and long-term obligations. He prominently HAD the highlighted-in-red "Storms on the Horizon" link on the Dallas' Feds home page; it's now buried within the site with a ridiculous 'disclaimer' tacked on at the end. I think the Feds have pressured him to 'toe-the-line'.
"My view is Fisher has been behind the curve on the economic slowdown, although he is clearly more pessimistic now."
+1
Bring Volcker back. Of course it's too late and not only because of an age issue....
Lilies that fester smell far worse than weeds. (versed)
1st
rats
At least his alarm bells are ringing. Not sure that's true elsewhere.
The herd is at 2009. That means 2012 or later.
CR - Fisher was certainly behind the curve but it looks like he might have finally found the right chart.
OT Going to be a few margin calls today
Hey, why complain?
The bailout of state and local governments is next.
Just wait. Ahnold will not be able to squeeze enough coconuts from the population to make that big pile of debt disappear.
Although he could take it to the discount window and refi it for 2% if he was an investment bank;-}
Just dropping ideas governator!
Someday this war's gonna end....
L-shaped Era of Prosperity?
Bottom flattens out. Productivity excels due to rampant unemployment. Wage "inflation" non-existent.
Banksters buries all their rotting corpses in the National Debt.
Mission accomplished.
Damn, why did I start working Thursdays again ;-(
Ah well. Beautiful market carnage going on. No one's spared (save the bears).
shorts buidling up.
Dow will be down 900 points today. (if PPT sits tight on their fat ass)
Anonymous Bosch writes:
L-shaped Era of Prosperity?
Bottom flattens out. Productivity excels due to rampant unemployment. Wage "inflation" non-existent.
Banksters buries all their rotting corpses in the National Debt.
innovation suddenly kicks in
and zappo - happy days are here again
[sorry for the sarcasm]
Dow(n) -900 ?
Hmmm... I seem to recall posting (and reposting) how my TA work (confirmed with fundamentals) were showing the market carnage was imminent, being accompanied by the USD/YEN breaking its monster bearish flag (heading toward 84, in agreement with energyecon). And someone named 'Jas' said technical analysis was for simpletons. Anyone know who this 'Jas' is or the record of his timing forecasts?
You day traders make me laugh. Volatility is the theme until post elections. A time for day trading truly.
For the record, I don't usually day trade. The bulk of my account is swing trading intermediate moves. I've ridden my current longs of SDS, DXD, TWM, and QID for about 3 weeks now (but got a good price for them).
Wait until Wall Street hears about thi.... uh, nevermind.
Anonymouse, I wouldn't worry about Jas. Your TA predictions that I've read have been on the money and they are always a pleasure to read. Keep up the good work!
day traders aren't doing very well either.....unless of course they have "help".
Some "happy" news this evening will almost certainly be released to counter this. At this point the institutions are in control....have been for some time now.
Lather,Rinse, Repeat
Ciao
MS
Market is crashing, down over 300. Wonder which hedge fund bubbles to the surface tits up today.
"market carnage is imminent" has a nice ring to it.....
Does anyone think this will really happen on Feb 1st?
ECB Will Tighten Lending Rules to Stop Bank Abuse
ECB Will Tighten Lending Rules to Stop Bank Abuse (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Trichet said he'll make it more expensive for banks to borrow from the ECB against most asset-based securities from Feb. 1. The ECB will increase the so-called `haircut' on the securities to 12 percent from as little as 2 percent, meaning it will lend just 88 percent of the value of the paper. Paper without a market price faces an additional 4.4 percent discount.
yeah, where is Jas? I really do miss being called an American born and bred dope.
Where's Sebastian?! I need some happy talk right about now.
Dow down 300 but only 200 visitors? No honey to attract the bears?
A year ago everything now accepted as fact was just a joke, a bearish fantasy.
Compared to last July, everyone is a bear now.
I hate doing predictions, especially on a daily basis, but I'm going to say that we've seen the bottom for today. DJIA may go a tad lower than 11,189 but not much.....
Tomorrow...that's a different story.
Ciao
MS
Bear watcher says where's the bears?
they are all busy going to their nearest banks shall be un-named) branch where white posterboard offers super CD rates...
and withdrawing their money while they can canuse..
last night on the radio show "coast to coast" Mike Shedlock (mish) had some very disturbing words to say about that big west coast bank
and other things...we're toast
Fed's Fisher: Economy to Stay Sluggish
Should read
Fed's Fisher: Fed to Stay Sluggish W/ Economy
mock-
what did Mr. Mish have to say other than what we already know and realize.....
anything prescient?
Ciao
MS
Market is crashing because of Palin. Too weird a pick. Scary scary.
She is no hockey mom, ice queen is more like it. Then again, she said a hockey mom is a pitbull with lipstick.
I got Palin to sign!
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/05/business/economy/05stox.html?hp>This story on NYTimes.com is highlighted on the front page with: A broad sell-off sent the Dow Jones industrial average down 230 points in morning trading, but few investors seemed to know why.
When markets make sizable moves on declining/lower benchmarked volume - as occurred throughout August (and I highlighted on CR many times), markets can then fall apart with rapidity - but should still be accompanied by increasing qaulity of volume - as has occurred this week and today.
Fast price moves make dumb money jump in; so when everyone saw S&P go from 1200 intraday to 1313 in 3&1/2 weeks, people take notice - and only then go long. And the same thing happened with oil/commodities. Nothing personal against commodity bulls, but they had a nice run and have to correct; it's healthy in the long run (assuming their long run isn't over).
Any link to mish's show. Podcast? anything?
Fisher's list of horribles:
One wonders which, if ANY, Fisher believes will turn around so that his 'prediction' of 'some time in 2009' for a snappier cruising speed has ANY believability.
For those that have missed this :-
U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent `Tsunami,' Gross
U.S. Must Buy Assets to Prevent `Tsunami,' Gross Says (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
BB we have all seen Gross' Cramer moment of panic.
The only real question is should we panic right now, or should we wait a while and watch things get worse.
I am in the waiting mode right now.
Nothing else to do, but wait and then maybe buy some beat up profitable companies, all five of them.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Mish in Coast to Coast
Flashpoints, End Times & Giants - Shows - Coast to Coast AM
FROM NAKEDCAPITALISM:
These two requirements must be satisfied, in the main, by the individuals who claim and hold control of the great industrial and financial combinations, which dominate so large a part of our industrial life. They have undertaken to be not businessmen, but princes princes of property. I am not prepared to say that the system which produces them is wrong. I am very clear that they must fearlessly and competently assume the responsibility which goes with the power. So many enlightened businessmen know this that the statement would be little more than a platitude, were it not for an added implication.
This implication is, briefly, that the responsible heads of finance and industry instead of acting each for himself, must work together to achieve the common end. They must, where necessary, sacrifice this or that private advantage; and in reciprocal selfdenial must seek a general advantage. It is here that formal government political government, if you choose, comes in. Whenever in the pursuit of this objective the lone wolf, the unethical competitor, the reckless promoter, the Ishmael or Insull whose hand is against every mans, declines to join in achieving an end recognized as being for the public welfare, and threatens to drag the industry back to a state of anarchy, the government may properly be asked to apply restraint. Likewise, should the group ever use its collective power contrary to the public welfare, the government must be swift to enter and protect the public interest."
Most of it is quite relevant to today, though times have changed and the world is different, but the matter of public welfare vs private interest will not be denied its place. Especially as it becomes clear how much we the public are expected to provide in welfare for today's private princes who have treated the republic as their own model of the Titanic.
A convenient link to the speech can be found here
Part 1: FDR and the Unfinished Agenda
Its extremely easy to be a blog reader with no career or political hide to lose when telling the truth. Its almost as easy to be an anonymous blogger and thus with no career or political hide to lose when telling the truth. The hardest is to be a mid-career experienced policymaker with mucho-career and political hide to lose when publicly telling truths.
Fisher is a near-retired guy, and still has some political hide to lose when publicly telling truths.
I admire Fisher's May 2008 speech, press release, and web offering, "Storms on the Horizon", on the pressing need to address the $99 trillion in unfunded long-term federal liabilities and long-term obligations. He prominently HAD the highlighted-in-red "Storms on the Horizon" link on the Dallas' Feds home page; it's now buried within the site with a ridiculous 'disclaimer' tacked on at the end. I think the Feds have pressured him to 'toe-the-line'.
PPT warming up the helicopters...
crispy&cole writes:
PPT warming up the helicopters...
Regardless, the damage has been done. We're heading for SPX 1080, no looking back.
I am hoping they crash on their way to Manhattan!
I really dont' feel very well. i think it's indigestion.
Yikes, that coast to coast radio program. Boy, I better get my tin-foil hat on...
My WAG is we will see some short covering into the close, too many bears with scorched paws!
"The government needs to replace private investors who either don't have the money to buy new assets or have been burned by losses," Gross said.
Free market system, RIP.
See 'Mr Mortgage' abouts borrowers getting screwed on loan 'workouts'.
Well its time to light up the victory cigar for today.
Anonymouse writes:
Regardless, the damage has been done. We're heading for SPX 1080, no looking back
You gotta cross 1200 first, and that's gonna bounce
popeye, it already bounced, like 3 times already, if not more.
Re: "The government needs to replace private investors who either don't have the money to buy new assets or have been burned by losses," Gross said.
Free homes for all, free healthcare, free lunches, free sex, freebase, free the people!!