See my hurricane comments one thread down. What they ought to do is superimpose the various tracks they use on this cone, so people will stop focussing on the black line in the middle.
It's too soon, guys, it's too soon.
My word, have the people even gone back home already? After another evacuation, everybody will be too weary to go again.
Even if it follows that track won't the Bahamas bust up the intensity quite a lot? And with building codes so much tighter it would take a BIG storm to do the psychological damage the '26 storm did.
Don't get me wrong - I fully expect a monster storm in Florida someday but I'd guess Tampa St. Pete (with the shallow narrow bay & hot gulf water temps & relatively unobstructed 'access') to be 'the one' to bust psychology down there for a generation.
Or Naples (big $$$ homes means big $$$ losses) - though Naples is somewhat more obstructed by Cuba.
on prior thread Elvis asked:
FDIC chair to speak at dinner today
"Sheila Bair, chairman of the FDIC, will address a sold-out dinner tonight at the Sarasota Hyatt."
Don't get me wrong - I fully expect a monster storm in Florida someday but I'd guess Tampa St. Pete (with the shallow narrow bay & hot gulf water temps & relatively unobstructed 'access') to be 'the one' to bust psychology down there for a generation.
The worst case scenario for Tampa/St Pete would be a storm that comes ashore (from the gulf) just north of the opening of Tampa Bay. That would position the winds to flush a surge of water into the bay, from the gulf. Take that and add all the rain coming down from the hurricane, would cause a relatively large tidal surge to all the shorelines around Tampa Bay.
A rather dark prediction was once floated, that that type of situation might cause part of Tampa Bay to return to the gulf thru the middle of Pinellas County (St Pete/Largo/Clearwater/etc). I can't even imagine the destruction that would cause down there.
As we saw with Andrew, the Bahamas didn't slow it down that much.
RayOnTheFarm | 09.04.08 - 6:32 pm | #
Remind me 'cause hurricanes are only of 'academic interest' to us in Minnie - hell we're closer to Hudson's Bay than the Gulf or Atlantic - didn't Andrew approach as a Cat 5 and hit Florida as a Cat 3? I thought the Bahamas took the brunt of Andrew - Florida just cost more because there was more there to 'expense'.
Even then the damage would not have been as bad as it if the codes had been enforced (combine that with mobile home fly-a-way and that was Andrew).
No no no. Mountains mess up hurricanes. The Bahamas have no mountains. They are mere flecks to a big hurricane.
Andrew came ashore as a 5. My house was totalled. We had left. The anemometer at the zoo just south of us blew away, at, I think 164. The zoo is close enough to the house that we could hear the lions roar before it got all built up. The destruction was amazing. Destruction as far as the eye could see from one bridge overpass. I believe one anemometer reached 190. Don't remember anymore where that was.
Gee, thanks dryfly. At least that might kill some of those condo towers that overhang the market!!
by the way, my house was many miles inland, and nobody sued my developer.
But totalled is totalled. House across the street even had shutters, which stayed on. Was destroyed worse than ours because the roof came off partly and swirled around, piling the neighbors possessions in the middle of the room.
Our development was pretty much built to code. Code didn't and doesn't require a house to endure 160 mile an hour winds.
The worst case scenario for Tampa/St Pete would be a storm that comes ashore (from the gulf) just north of the opening of Tampa Bay.
And don't forget, the Hillsborough River meanders through North Tampa all the way to downtown, isn't damn controlled, has numerous houses on its banks 10-15 feet above normal water level, and is FULL OF RATS AND ALLIGATORS!
How would you like to come home after a hurricane and find an alligator in your living room?
Even if it follows that track won't the Bahamas bust up the intensity quite a lot?
I read the NHC storm and tropical weather forecast "discussion" segments a lot. They are not the same since Lixion Avila stopped writing so many, but they are still good informative reading.
IIRC, you need either distance or altitude for that. You need to either compromise the energy uptake or compromise the circulation. It's megatons of mass and 10^12-16 watts of energy depending on how you measure it, so you either need to cut off the supply of warm ocean entirely or be big enough to really interfere with ground level circulation.
From several years of minute watching, Hispaniola is not always a serious problem for the determined hurricane. Jamaica might as well not be there. Cuba can do a number on them but only if they go up the middle.
I hold great empathy for those facing the actual storms just off our shores... and that's honest empathy. However, I'm attuned to the market and there is a hurricane approaching shore there as well.
Dunno but wouldn't it have to be big to cause lots of action in just about every currency cross on the planet at the same time? Or not so due to thinly traded atm?
Suppose a hurricane is expected to hit an area where there are a lot of delinquent homeowners. Would it make a difference to who gets the insurance money if the property was foreclosed before the storm got there?
I mentioned earlier I'd give AllenM my take from a few weeks back when GDX had its bounce. <a href="http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/5678191397914208373/?dt=1219386589#551761>Here's what I wrote:
Don't take it personal or anything. I'd just recommend keeping a tight leash on GDX or its call options. Massive volume at those lows - those love to get tested.
No sh*t high volume lows love to get tested. And even greater damage was done on the glod/sliver stocks today. Pray for your souls.
Asplundh and that other tree service company with the green trucks are the ones that prosper from hurricanes. I think they are privately held though.
Problem if Hanna does a lot of damage in the east is that the power companies have sent their bucket trucks and crews to Louisiana to help out Entergy down there. Mutual Aid will get pretty strained if we have three hurricanes hit in a two week period. That is the worse thing about tropical storms... the loss of electricity.
What they ought to do is superimpose the various tracks they use on this cone, so people will stop focussing on the black line in the middle. Lawyerliz
That's all food for thought; but I was warning about a decline in a specific ETF (GDX closed @38.30 on 8/21/08, day of comment; it closed today @ 32.18; that's a 16% haircut assuming no leverage and it will get worse).
My food for thought TA wise on the currencies is that the USD/YEN definitively broke its weekly bearish flag today, giving a test of 96 a very high probability and a break of that a test of 82-80 is in the cards. That will send world markets f*cking roiling.
The SPX broke its pennant on August 18th. Everything since then has been a failed retest of the lower trend line of that pennant. SPX is heading to 1080 assuming it doesn't crash.
Anonymouse,
I bought my 5 calls for December in GDX, thanks to the huge new vix in the play, I only have a minimal loss.
The problem with a huge slaughter going on in Wall Street is that babies are going out with the sewage.
Now, as stuff springs back to life after this killing frost, many things thought dead will come roaring back to life.
In other words, wait, this is going to splatter and push out all over the place.
That movement in the yen to 82 would blow minds on wall street, and the carry trade would implode along with a bunch of forex trading ibanks in Japan. Mama san reaching for yield would be crucified.
This also makes for a violent rip roaring trade in the precious metals as they whipsaw along with the falling dollar.
What we may be seeing is flight from the dollar in the far east, decoupling us and europe from their currency system.
If that happens, glod and sliver will shoot the moon in dollars.
Groovy Java graphics and access to all the directional models.
MoonT
I bookmarked this from the Gustav thread the other day and it's pretty cool. Just click on the storm (if it isn't already highlighted) and turn on the forecast models and you can see the various tracks.
Full disclosure: I took some relief from being underwater on TWM and SDS in the past couple of days, but I remain very long TWM {the sucker has to break sometime} , DXD and SDS. I'm equities only, the rest of you guys just know too much for me.
The Daily Chart shows the Dow has finally gotten a big downside break through the bottom of the major channel at 11,400. This break also sparked a breakout from the three-week trading range, which further aided the decline. In all, these two major patterns sparked heavy selling pressure, which could snowball into more weakness ahead. Look for a potential test of the July lows at around 10,825 soon.
A-mouse
I just double checked --- Aug 18th ??? wow, you use a sharp pencil. As a matter of proper TA, I don't agree, but, hey, do we really need to split hairs ?
I completely agree with exiting trades/"specu-vestments" that did not have ideal positioning. I finally got a nice closing gain of my XLF short @21.56 from last Friday, and I think I'm gonna put some protection in, because that 23.09 from July 23rd can always get tested (but I don't think it will).
I kind of jumped the move (with a tight leash) buying SDS @63.25 on August 11th, DXD similarly @58.95; I got super lucky on TWM @62.35 on August 17th (that's going on my wall, lol). Yeah, I'd hold on to TWM. I mentioned the other day, posting a monster head&shoulders formation on the $RUT, that the small caps could go down to 360 - time wise, who knows? Half a year? A year? I suspect TWM can double in 6 months...
Nothing goes straight up or straight down. SPX has gone from the Tuesday high (jesus just 3 days ago) of 1303 to today's 1232. It needs to build strength, build cause (i.e. keep pushing down with accelerating volume) to break the July lows. I suspect it will take over the next 2 weeks, if Sept. is really the month we break those 7/15 lows. But they will get tested, no doubt.
A-mouse,
I see the head & shoulders, but I hold my time frames more closely than that. I'll let some ride for that chance, but, as I've said for a long time - -- most arguments turn on time - not merits.
<a href="http://img134.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fuckyoujasjainax3.png>Here's that $RUT h&s chart I threw together in 2 minutes notice the mislabeled left/right shoulder - I'm lysdexic - and notice the image name
What gets me about this market tankage is that for once the finacials (XLF) are not leading the decline. Now, I'm still short XLF, and I think it will go down to test its July 15th low eventually. But now it just requires tech & commodity stocks to sell off the broad market. Once the XLF resumes cratering, Glod have mercy on the bulls.
And one final pat on my back, <a href="http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/9188330651840965981/?a=16745#542742>on 8/07/08 I wrote: I'm serious about tech leading us down - very soon. I could make a TA case that the NAZ never broke its uptrend line from the '03 run. But if it breaks the July low (where all the untested daily/weekly volume is) then its over and we'll see a waterfall in tech shares.
Merrill Lynch appears to have failed to sell about $200m (£112m) of distressed mortgage debt to the Korea Asset Management Corp (Kamco).
The US investment bank, led by chairman and chief executive John Thain, had been discussing selling the debt on to Kamco as part of a regular transaction but they are understood not to have been able to reach agreement on price
I'm being shameless, I know. But seriously, I know a trader I highly respect that usually doesn't put more than 2% of his account in any trade; and he took a 10% position short RIMM back around early August @133-135 (it close @107.49), and he writes You might think its oversold after this 23+ point nosedive ...... but its only starting to break down.
Actually ths hurricane is sitting in about the same position as one in 1938 which was equally ferocious and which suddenly (and unexpectedly) veered north.
That one took out Long Island (the Hamptons etc) and the shorelinse of Connecticut and Rhode Island.
It was called "The Great Hurricane of 1938" or the "Long Island Express" or the "great new England Hurricane. It slammed ashore at somewhere between a Cat 3-4. One observatory clocked the winds at one point at over 180 mph. When it hit the shore of Long Island, the reverberations registered on seismic equipment in Alaska.
Just think about all those multi-million dollar shore front homes that are on those exact same sites now.
Just think about all those multi-million dollar shore front homes that are on those exact same sites now.
Popeye says, just think about how much our country has changed since then. And then consider the fact that the folks who owned the homes destroyed in that storm are still big betters today.
And don't forget, the Hillsborough River meanders through North Tampa all the way to downtown, isn't damn controlled, has numerous houses on its banks 10-15 feet above normal water level, and is FULL OF RATS AND ALLIGATORS!
Heh. I grew up on the banks of the Hillsborough River, I should know about all that stuff.
Actually, there is a dam on the river. Its tucked in behind Rowlett Park, about half-way between Temple Terrace and Sulphur Springs. map Notice where the river gets real narrow there ? The only problem is that a major storm would require them to open the gates, which would drive more water down the river (and cause problems towards downtown). If they didn't open the gates, the water might top the dam.
Fond memories from a long time ago.
RayOnTheFarm | 09.04.08 - 8:34 pm | #
Thanks Ray - its what makes this blog so much fun - folks like yourself who know the lay of the land.
BTW from my neck of the woods - been all over the Midwest over the last few weeks - corn looks ASSKICK even considering the thin spots where the floods took its toll. If there isn't an early frost there is going to be a huge bumper.
So no famine this fall anyway.
Reminds me of some one anonymous on this blog who kept saying all summer something about 'assimilation' or something like that.
I don't know where they'll store it all there looks to be so much.
8 PM models for Ike are even more divergent. 2 now show him entering the GoM, 1 shows him striking S. Florida, 3 now show him making a turn north along the east coast.
Still want to wait until Sunday before you start betting on these models.
mouse, I had the buy prior to your post, but like all things in the marketplace, you makes your bets, and you takes your chances. The ones Im seeing now have great big dollar signs b-bulging out the eyes in cartoonish fashion.
small victories, thats all its about. Swingin for the fences gets you Bear Stearned.
LOL, I held a small position in SDP (near its inception) for over a year, sold for a small profit in July, and only now does it look like its gonna take off
The 2 PM models should be posted about the time the margin clerk gets through.
I think oil near 100, DIG at 70, the dollar/yen cross being what it is, it's a good time to cover the materials shorts and maybe take a defined-risk shot at an oil bounce.
I think if half the models put it in the gulf, I'm going to take a shot at it.
Those risk/reward for that trade have improved, form one perspective, since last week... Although, I'd caution (since so many were boasting over the holiday about OIH calls and such) to sell the news - wait for the event first.
I lived in Milford MA in 1975, and the old timers who built my house ( plaster lathe walls, no drywall ), STILL talk about the 1938 hurricane. It blew over farm buildings, and all their chicken coops. Milford is just south of Framingham. They said it was nasty.
Have some personal observations and experiences about 'troll hunting' or blog content control.
Troll hunters will falsely charge a blogger who has made comments they don't like with an accusation or a derogatory label.
I've seen it where a troll hunter or blog censor will actually accuse the labeled or targeted blogger with some form of hate speech or will give the blogger a label that is a code word for 'insane'.
The troll hunter will use hateful labels to egg the unwelcome blogger into a fight thus changing the subject and bringing out the worse in the guest blogger.
All the blogs are moderated or monitored to some degree by blog owners but there's 'regular' bloggers who will hunt for perceived trolls and first try and ignore them and if that doesn't work aggressively confront them.
The guest blogger or lurker who decided to comment may have tried to discuss a taboo, over-the-official-line, off-limits, or generally censored issue that may not be allowed either in the mainstream media.
I've actually seen the censorship process escalate where 'veiled threat' quotes will be used to intimidate the blog visitor but these quotes are vague and not attributed to the troll hunter.
You can observe this troll hunter censorship or gatekeeping process surface from time to time and it's interesting how it plays out. Usually it just discourages the blogger who made the politically incorrect or official line doubting comments from posting anymore and kills the discussion which is not always off-topic, just an incorrect narrative or script.
Sometimes troll hunters are just defending the establishment official version of some event or process and will use code word labeling like 'troll', 'tin foil hatter', or 'conspiracy theorist' to castigate, invalidate, marginalize, condemn, and intimidate the 'off-topic' blogger into being quiet or going away.
I just kinda stumbled in this troll hunter process making comments here and there on other blogs.
Another tactic used is to invite the unwelcome blogger on to another site to get the unacceptable discussion off the popular blog. You find out there hasn't been any comment 'activity' in the blog you were 'invited' to for months. It's just to sideline the recalcitrant politically incorrect blogger.
I just noticed the intensity of the troll hunter personal attacks and noticed it would follow this pattern of ignore, accuse, put down, and turn up the verbal attack until all hell breaks loose and the Cat In The Hat has to be called in.
The debate of economic and political issues is very controlled in the mainstream media as many bloggers point out over and over. But there's 'editing' underway in most popular blogs, especially the popular ones with the high comment counts.
And there's regular 'blog editors' patrolling every blog for off-limits analysis and subject matter. I can understand the need for topics on threads but I have followed up with the 'regulars' making comments and been blasted for coming (uninvited) on the scene with content that is apparently not allowed.
This same trolling for trolls process is going on at Nouriel Roubini's and Mish's blogs.
I know the name tags of these 'editors' and as I said the tactics can get pretty nasty in confronting the unwelcome blogger who will be labeled with the code words 'troll', 'tin foil hat', conspiracy theorist', or 'scum' which will have a chilling effect on the 'outside' blogger or 'insane' blogger who may be challenging conventional 'wisdom' or 'knowledge'.
I've been living in Miami for a few years and Ike is making me nervous. The paths seem really direct. We've been lucky for a few years, but given the activity et al of the season, Ike could really pack a punh. Thoughts?
You should speak with some locals you know who survived Andrew.
I've been living in Orlando since '01, got walloped by Charlie in '04 (terrible, considering we're so inland), and I had a roommate my first year of college who was from Miami. He survived Andrew, but everything he cared about (including his church) was destroyed. That turned him atheist, he said. :=O
btw...it's a big freakin' peninsula in hurricane alley. Always has been. Perhaps you can sue the mortgage company for "letting" you borrow money to buy there, because certainly you couldn't have anticipated that a freakin' hurricane or two might come through? Better yet, why don't we just have the federal government pick up the tab?
"I've been living in Orlando since '01, got walloped by Charlie in '04 (terrible, considering we're so inland)"
Ummmmmm....Orlando is about 30-40 miles inland. A big ass hurricane, like Ike, is about 350 miles nose to ass. There is no place in Florida that is "so inland" in comparison to this.
Even a "big ass" hurricane will slow down by the time it reaches central Florida - unless it enters the way Charlie did. It went so diagonally, practically straight sideways West to East coast, that we were pummeled by Category 2 forces that shouldn't usually occur inland. Charlie was a freak. We lost so many beautiful trees; they all fell over in ugliness. Hope it doesn't happen again during my stay here.
It doesn't matter how it enters, it matters what is in the swath for the first 50-100 miles. Andrew entered and exited straight on and did some major ass kicking all the way through the peninsula.
Funny, I was just reflecting on that point, it matters what is in the swath for the first 50-100 miles, a moment ago. Charlie should have hit Tampa. Sorry to say it, but coastal Florida cities deserve to be a protective barrier for inner Florida. Alas, it ran through mostly trailer park trash, bypassing Tampa, before it hit us.
This is a 'hurricane' thread...so I'll repeat my concerns on editing blog content another time when more appropriate plus a script of an actual example of an 'exchange' I'm refering to because it's interesting how some of these 'flame wars' actually originate from 'regulars'.
I had a scaled bid out there... a little at 69.50, a little more at 69, more at 68.50, etc.
Only got hit on the first lot. Small positions are a good thing. I may regret not taking the 4 sticks at the close. Now committed until the Monday open.
First...?
Inventory destruction. (sad but true, if it happens)
russia created them
See my hurricane comments one thread down. What they ought to do is superimpose the various tracks they use on this cone, so people will stop focussing on the black line in the middle.
It's too soon, guys, it's too soon.
My word, have the people even gone back home already? After another evacuation, everybody will be too weary to go again.
I like Ike.
Even if it follows that track won't the Bahamas bust up the intensity quite a lot? And with building codes so much tighter it would take a BIG storm to do the psychological damage the '26 storm did.
Don't get me wrong - I fully expect a monster storm in Florida someday but I'd guess Tampa St. Pete (with the shallow narrow bay & hot gulf water temps & relatively unobstructed 'access') to be 'the one' to bust psychology down there for a generation.
Or Naples (big $$$ homes means big $$$ losses) - though Naples is somewhat more obstructed by Cuba.
Hurricane destroys 100,000 houses. Insurance companies pay off to owners who wisely pocket the cash. Housing prices in Florida firm up.
Nice!!
Bill writes:
Hurricane destroys 100,000 houses. Insurance companies pay off to owners who wisely pocket the cash. Housing prices in Florida firm up.
Nice!!
Bill | 09.04.08 - 6:23 pm | #
Just like the 9th Ward in NOLA...
The Florida land boom lurched to sudden halt in the early spring of 1926, well before the "Great Hurricane" of 1926. (Source: Kindleberger.)
South Florida Water Management District chart
(click on Model run, then Storm 09) here
Even if it follows that track won't the Bahamas bust up the intensity quite a lot?
As we saw with Andrew, the Bahamas didn't slow it down that much.
Just how old are you Nemo? I can barely remember that campaign phrase. Wish I still had the buttons!
Spinco. How appropriate.
Just in time for hurricane season.
any planed bank failures this week? does mr. Gross knows something we don't?
on prior thread Elvis asked:
FDIC chair to speak at dinner today
"Sheila Bair, chairman of the FDIC, will address a sold-out dinner tonight at the Sarasota Hyatt."
Anyone want to bet that toast will be served?
My suggestion is pigs in a blanket.
Why's the AH market still selling? SP500 down another 7pts...
Don't get me wrong - I fully expect a monster storm in Florida someday but I'd guess Tampa St. Pete (with the shallow narrow bay & hot gulf water temps & relatively unobstructed 'access') to be 'the one' to bust psychology down there for a generation.
The worst case scenario for Tampa/St Pete would be a storm that comes ashore (from the gulf) just north of the opening of Tampa Bay. That would position the winds to flush a surge of water into the bay, from the gulf. Take that and add all the rain coming down from the hurricane, would cause a relatively large tidal surge to all the shorelines around Tampa Bay.
A rather dark prediction was once floated, that that type of situation might cause part of Tampa Bay to return to the gulf thru the middle of Pinellas County (St Pete/Largo/Clearwater/etc). I can't even imagine the destruction that would cause down there.
Bill writes:
Hurricane destroys 100,000 houses. Insurance companies pay off to owners who wisely pocket the cash. Housing prices in Florida firm up.
All of the people losing ground on their mortgage payments are improbably keeping up on the insurance premiums. Remarkable.
just remember, nothing serious happens until the spx crosses 1214
bearly,
Did you catch the AH FX activity? Passing strange...
The hub tells me there are a number of tracks that take it South.
All those houses being destroyed merely means that there will be no property insurance available at all.
The new houses are stronger. The older houses are not necessarily stronger.
I don't think Tampa has been hit for many, many years, and the doomsday scenario described above is possible.
ow both norcal and socal need a nice 7.x earthquake to make things all even!
Whip inflation now!
As we saw with Andrew, the Bahamas didn't slow it down that much.
RayOnTheFarm | 09.04.08 - 6:32 pm | #
Remind me 'cause hurricanes are only of 'academic interest' to us in Minnie - hell we're closer to Hudson's Bay than the Gulf or Atlantic - didn't Andrew approach as a Cat 5 and hit Florida as a Cat 3? I thought the Bahamas took the brunt of Andrew - Florida just cost more because there was more there to 'expense'.
Even then the damage would not have been as bad as it if the codes had been enforced (combine that with mobile home fly-a-way and that was Andrew).
Am I wrong?
Lawyerliz writes:
The hub tells me there are a number of tracks that take it South.
For Liz... most of the models look like they want to meet at S Beach.
But it is days away & things change...
... great anticipation for tomorrow - on more than one moving front.
All Fall Down --
Just how old are you Nemo? I can barely remember that campaign phrase. Wish I still had the buttons!
I am not young, but not quite that old.
But I decided some time ago that everything really interesting was said, done, or written before I was born...
Passing strange...
energyecon
looking at it sideways dont help...thoughts
meezz wondering if something is hoping not to blow up (x the pond)
No no no. Mountains mess up hurricanes. The Bahamas have no mountains. They are mere flecks to a big hurricane.
Andrew came ashore as a 5. My house was totalled. We had left. The anemometer at the zoo just south of us blew away, at, I think 164. The zoo is close enough to the house that we could hear the lions roar before it got all built up. The destruction was amazing. Destruction as far as the eye could see from one bridge overpass. I believe one anemometer reached 190. Don't remember anymore where that was.
CR, how old are you anyway? LOL
Gee, thanks dryfly. At least that might kill some of those condo towers that overhang the market!!
by the way, my house was many miles inland, and nobody sued my developer.
But totalled is totalled. House across the street even had shutters, which stayed on. Was destroyed worse than ours because the roof came off partly and swirled around, piling the neighbors possessions in the middle of the room.
Our development was pretty much built to code. Code didn't and doesn't require a house to endure 160 mile an hour winds.
And don't forget, the Hillsborough River meanders through North Tampa all the way to downtown, isn't damn controlled, has numerous houses on its banks 10-15 feet above normal water level, and is FULL OF RATS AND ALLIGATORS!
How would you like to come home after a hurricane and find an alligator in your living room?
Even if it follows that track won't the Bahamas bust up the intensity quite a lot?
I read the NHC storm and tropical weather forecast "discussion" segments a lot. They are not the same since Lixion Avila stopped writing so many, but they are still good informative reading.
IIRC, you need either distance or altitude for that. You need to either compromise the energy uptake or compromise the circulation. It's megatons of mass and 10^12-16 watts of energy depending on how you measure it, so you either need to cut off the supply of warm ocean entirely or be big enough to really interfere with ground level circulation.
From several years of minute watching, Hispaniola is not always a serious problem for the determined hurricane. Jamaica might as well not be there. Cuba can do a number on them but only if they go up the middle.
Coral Gables went bankrupt after the 26 storm. Of course, it recovered.
I am calling a nothingburger!
I hold great empathy for those facing the actual storms just off our shores... and that's honest empathy. However, I'm attuned to the market and there is a hurricane approaching shore there as well.
Wunderground.com, especially Dr. Masters' blog, is a great resource for storm geeks.
The models seem to be updated at 8 AM, 2 PM and 8 PM each day.
Hurricane Ike : Weather Underground
It's still too far out to know whether it'll hit Florida, Cuba, enter GoM, etc.
The models are amazingly good. When they agree, that's pretty much what's going to happen.
Barley,
Dunno but wouldn't it have to be big to cause lots of action in just about every currency cross on the planet at the same time? Or not so due to thinly traded atm?
Riddle me this Batman...
As of a few hours ago, they weren't agreeing.
I nominate USD/JPY for Chart of the Day.
(Although the 10-year Treasury is surely in the running.)
Any other nominees?
Even tomorrow, it will be too soon, but I'll get the poop from the hub.
Suppose a hurricane is expected to hit an area where there are a lot of delinquent homeowners. Would it make a difference to who gets the insurance money if the property was foreclosed before the storm got there?
crispy&cole writes:
I am calling a nothingburger!
It doesn't matter. The damage has been done. We're heading down down down
(lmao, first look since 4pm, futures down, USD/YEN tanked...)
Nice cliff diving nemo.
A-mouse,
WTF was that - almost every currency cross had a big hiccup - AH?
I read weatherunderground too... which is where I saw this... show THAT to your hubby Liz - next time he starts going on about the 'the cone'.
Sigh, stupid Haloscan.
Try again...
10-year Treasury since 1962
The 5:30 am numbers tommorow is ALL that matters righ now.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) for long-range forecasts of hurricane, typhoon and cyclone worldwide has nicely organized hurrican path projections.
No crispy, the question on the 2 and 20 set is do my competitors have the same trade on and a margin call from Lehman?
This applies to forex too!
Someday this war's gonna end...
OT -
I mentioned earlier I'd give AllenM my take from a few weeks back when GDX had its bounce. <a href="http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/5678191397914208373/?dt=1219386589#551761>Here's what I wrote:
Don't take it personal or anything. I'd just recommend keeping a tight leash on GDX or its call options. Massive volume at those lows - those love to get tested.
No sh*t high volume lows love to get tested. And even greater damage was done on the glod/sliver stocks today. Pray for your souls.
Anonymouse writes:
crispy&cole writes:
I am calling a nothingburger!
It doesn't matter. The damage has been done. We're heading down down down
(lmao, first look since 4pm, futures down, USD/YEN tanked...)
IMHO, down is necessary to simply restore balance. But that's just me.
Asplundh and that other tree service company with the green trucks are the ones that prosper from hurricanes. I think they are privately held though.
Problem if Hanna does a lot of damage in the east is that the power companies have sent their bucket trucks and crews to Louisiana to help out Entergy down there. Mutual Aid will get pretty strained if we have three hurricanes hit in a two week period. That is the worse thing about tropical storms... the loss of electricity.
on the other hand ... intervention is not a question of if
anon, but CEF was green today.
I think the massive push lower of the dollar is going to spark a massive short cover in the metals.
Like tonight starting in Tokyo.
That drop in the dollar versus Yen was stellar (can you tell I am long Japan).
Crazy gyrations are perturbing the entire system as delevering pushes through in quicktime and folks think in slowtime.
I can hardly wait to see where stuff settles.
Someday this war's gonna end...
What they ought to do is superimpose the various tracks they use on this cone, so people will stop focussing on the black line in the middle. Lawyerliz
Tropical Storm Josephine, 2008 / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping
Like a lot of stuff on the internet, you may have to try a couple of times to get it to work right.
AllenM aka Joliet Jake writes:
I think the massive push lower of the dollar is going to spark a massive short cover in the metals.
Like tonight starting in Tokyo.
That drop in the dollar versus Yen was stellar (can you tell I am long Japan).
Crazy gyrations are perturbing the entire system as delevering pushes through in quicktime and folks think in slowtime.
Popeye asks how you describe a hurricane.
"russia created them"
I thought so too - from a secret cavern inside Yamantau Gora.
AllenM,
That's all food for thought; but I was warning about a decline in a specific ETF (GDX closed @38.30 on 8/21/08, day of comment; it closed today @ 32.18; that's a 16% haircut assuming no leverage and it will get worse).
My food for thought TA wise on the currencies is that the USD/YEN definitively broke its weekly bearish flag today, giving a test of 96 a very high probability and a break of that a test of 82-80 is in the cards. That will send world markets f*cking roiling.
Yeah, dollar/yen cross is saying that you gotta cover materials shorts. Right here.
100/bbl is a good logical place to take a defined-risk long on some oil.
spx has not broken flag - a PPT failure { and I do believe that is happening } tomorrow would result in a very very very unpredictable situation.
Popeye,
The SPX broke its pennant on August 18th. Everything since then has been a failed retest of the lower trend line of that pennant. SPX is heading to 1080 assuming it doesn't crash.
Anonymouse,
I bought my 5 calls for December in GDX, thanks to the huge new vix in the play, I only have a minimal loss.
The problem with a huge slaughter going on in Wall Street is that babies are going out with the sewage.
Now, as stuff springs back to life after this killing frost, many things thought dead will come roaring back to life.
In other words, wait, this is going to splatter and push out all over the place.
That movement in the yen to 82 would blow minds on wall street, and the carry trade would implode along with a bunch of forex trading ibanks in Japan. Mama san reaching for yield would be crucified.
This also makes for a violent rip roaring trade in the precious metals as they whipsaw along with the falling dollar.
What we may be seeing is flight from the dollar in the far east, decoupling us and europe from their currency system.
If that happens, glod and sliver will shoot the moon in dollars.
Heaven knows what those dollars might buy!
Wild.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Just found this today:
Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping
Groovy Java graphics and access to all the directional models.
MoonT
I bookmarked this from the Gustav thread the other day and it's pretty cool. Just click on the storm (if it isn't already highlighted) and turn on the forecast models and you can see the various tracks.
Full disclosure: I took some relief from being underwater on TWM and SDS in the past couple of days, but I remain very long TWM {the sucker has to break sometime} , DXD and SDS. I'm equities only, the rest of you guys just know too much for me.
Nemo,
Check this out: 10 year yield to 2.98%
10 Year U.S. Treasury Note T-Note Yield Forecast
Anonymouse writes:
Popeye,
The SPX broke its pennant on August 18th.
A-mouse, I simply use a crayon - had I employed a pencil, I would probably have to concede the point.
dryfly: "most of the models look like they want to meet at S Beach"
LOL
The Daily Chart shows the Dow has finally gotten a big downside break through the bottom of the major channel at 11,400. This break also sparked a breakout from the three-week trading range, which further aided the decline. In all, these two major patterns sparked heavy selling pressure, which could snowball into more weakness ahead. Look for a potential test of the July lows at around 10,825 soon.
A-mouse
I just double checked --- Aug 18th ??? wow, you use a sharp pencil. As a matter of proper TA, I don't agree, but, hey, do we really need to split hairs ?
Popeye,
I completely agree with exiting trades/"specu-vestments" that did not have ideal positioning. I finally got a nice closing gain of my XLF short @21.56 from last Friday, and I think I'm gonna put some protection in, because that 23.09 from July 23rd can always get tested (but I don't think it will).
I truly hate REG T
GFS and GFDL had Gustav's landfall pegged 3 days prior.
I'd keep an eye on those two if I lived in south Florida.
Popeye,
I kind of jumped the move (with a tight leash) buying SDS @63.25 on August 11th, DXD similarly @58.95; I got super lucky on TWM @62.35 on August 17th (that's going on my wall, lol). Yeah, I'd hold on to TWM. I mentioned the other day, posting a monster head&shoulders formation on the $RUT, that the small caps could go down to 360 - time wise, who knows? Half a year? A year? I suspect TWM can double in 6 months...
A-mouse,
Tempting though it may be, don't underestimate spx 1214. That puppy will bounce.
Popeye,
Nothing goes straight up or straight down. SPX has gone from the Tuesday high (jesus just 3 days ago) of 1303 to today's 1232. It needs to build strength, build cause (i.e. keep pushing down with accelerating volume) to break the July lows. I suspect it will take over the next 2 weeks, if Sept. is really the month we break those 7/15 lows. But they will get tested, no doubt.
A-mouse,
I see the head & shoulders, but I hold my time frames more closely than that. I'll let some ride for that chance, but, as I've said for a long time - -- most arguments turn on time - not merits.
Popeye,
<a href="http://img134.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fuckyoujasjainax3.png>Here's that $RUT h&s chart I threw together in 2 minutes notice the mislabeled left/right shoulder - I'm lysdexic - and notice the image name
heh heh
"russia created them"
Maybe we've found Sarah Palin's area of expertise, you know, 'cuz Alaska's so close to Russia and all.
A-mouse,
I envy your software, I drew pretty much the same thing by hand. LOL on the name.
I envy your software
Copy & paste from free stockcharts.com and draw in m.s. Paint (it's not how big the tools are, it's how you use 'em)
energyecon - meezzz thinks somebody is looking to generate fast cash x the pond b4 markets open
or, euro is being bought x all - aka intervention
or, nothing at all except nerves
the TSE has had a couple of bad days
What gets me about this market tankage is that for once the finacials (XLF) are not leading the decline. Now, I'm still short XLF, and I think it will go down to test its July 15th low eventually. But now it just requires tech & commodity stocks to sell off the broad market. Once the XLF resumes cratering, Glod have mercy on the bulls.
This blog is such a nice respite from the 24/7 Sarah Palin-fest on the TV news.
You people talk about facts and figures.
Amazing!
A-mouse,
Those who accept the cards they are dealt simply have not considered the benefits of innovation. Thanks for the tip.
ear the end of the previous thread anonymouse gave us a link.
it was a youtube video of a fox news broadcast
where fox news's chris wallace, just to be the upstanding and fair reporter that he is...
showed the propaganda bio movie (that both parties create to introduce their candidates) about sarah palin,
but!!! the republicans didnt have time to show their paldin propaganda movie last night cause the "mayor of america"'s speech ran overtime!!!
how nice that fox news, the fair and balanced fellows that they are, does free pol advertisements for the republican party...
see how it works...ya let rupert murdock and other media outlets get favorable rulings from the FCC, regarding media ownership
and in return you get more than just a little favorable political advertising
And one final pat on my back, <a href="http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/9188330651840965981/?a=16745#542742>on 8/07/08 I wrote:
I'm serious about tech leading us down - very soon. I could make a TA case that the NAZ never broke its uptrend line from the '03 run. But if it breaks the July low (where all the untested daily/weekly volume is) then its over and we'll see a waterfall in tech shares.
Just a few weeks off.
Mock,
I agree with you on many things, but I ask you to consider the fact that this is not a political site. As stated better than I might have:
401o(k) writes:
This blog is such a nice respite from the 24/7 Sarah Palin-fest on the TV news.
Merrill Lynch appears to have failed to sell about $200m (£112m) of distressed mortgage debt to the Korea Asset Management Corp (Kamco).
The US investment bank, led by chairman and chief executive John Thain, had been discussing selling the debt on to Kamco as part of a regular transaction but they are understood not to have been able to reach agreement on price
Merrill Lynch fails to sell on debt to Koreans - Telegraph
popeye
i will try to restrain myself
however the FCC rulings do bear a small relationship, as an economic issue,
but... i get your point
I'm being shameless, I know. But seriously, I know a trader I highly respect that usually doesn't put more than 2% of his account in any trade; and he took a 10% position short RIMM back around early August @133-135 (it close @107.49), and he writes You might think its oversold after this 23+ point nosedive ...... but its only starting to break down.
Well blow me down.
I'm not even interested in $/yen today. Call me when it gets close to March's lows.
That was around me birthday...3/17...oh and BS blow up. I think it was b-day tho.
Cheers,
I promised I wouldn't do this again, but what the hey... I will shamelessly point out that it's worth considering again:
As you watch the cookies crumble;
carefully counting all the crumbs,
The baker is busy baking;
making new plans for new kingdoms.
Will the yeast build even faster
than it ever has in the past ?
- or will the amount of flour spilt
become your very last repast?
Actually ths hurricane is sitting in about the same position as one in 1938 which was equally ferocious and which suddenly (and unexpectedly) veered north.
That one took out Long Island (the Hamptons etc) and the shorelinse of Connecticut and Rhode Island.
It was called "The Great Hurricane of 1938" or the "Long Island Express" or the "great new England Hurricane. It slammed ashore at somewhere between a Cat 3-4. One observatory clocked the winds at one point at over 180 mph. When it hit the shore of Long Island, the reverberations registered on seismic equipment in Alaska.
Just think about all those multi-million dollar shore front homes that are on those exact same sites now.
AnnS writes re the "Great Hurricane of 1938":
Just think about all those multi-million dollar shore front homes that are on those exact same sites now.
Popeye says, just think about how much our country has changed since then. And then consider the fact that the folks who owned the homes destroyed in that storm are still big betters today.
But that is just my view of things.
And don't forget, the Hillsborough River meanders through North Tampa all the way to downtown, isn't damn controlled, has numerous houses on its banks 10-15 feet above normal water level, and is FULL OF RATS AND ALLIGATORS!
Heh. I grew up on the banks of the Hillsborough River, I should know about all that stuff.
Actually, there is a dam on the river. Its tucked in behind Rowlett Park, about half-way between Temple Terrace and Sulphur Springs. map Notice where the river gets real narrow there ? The only problem is that a major storm would require them to open the gates, which would drive more water down the river (and cause problems towards downtown). If they didn't open the gates, the water might top the dam.
Fond memories from a long time ago.
Mock,
I said that in the spirit of the respect that I hold for your views.
Popeye
At the top of the thread you rote jokingly about how toast was to be served at Janet Yellin's dinner party.
And just up thread from here you shared an interesting poem about how crumbling cookies and rising yeast could lead to the end.
So, respectfully,I would ask you, how is MT telling us how fox news shills in exchange for favorable FCC rulings out of line?
toobigtofail,
Your question assumes a fact in question; viz, do I have a clue.
Popeye
hey
i got not problem with people saying to me, "cool it" with political angles
i hear this frequently around my house
sometimes i do get carried away
usually when i get a request i honor it, and i appreciate that you were civil about it... no problem
Storm brewing in Asia? Nikkei down 2.58%
toobigtofail,
I'm impressed that you asked, but the answer is that I have a toehold on my corner of the world and I wish the rest of you the best.
anonymouse: I remember that post on the TA call on the Naz, and I took AMD long at 4.50. Took it off last week at 6.10.
looks like she is rolling over hard now.
toobigtofail
You misread the poem. It didn't lead to an answer, it pointed out the existence of two opposing forces.
cracker writes:
anonymouse: I remember that post on the TA call on the Naz, and I took AMD long at 4.50
so I'm somebody's contrary indicator. thanks! oh, the resolution of breaking the '03-'07 bearish flag takes NDX to 0
As Groucho once remarked, "If you buy real estate in Florida you can really get stucco".
A-mouse
that's an example of the trouble that comes from using a sharp pencil in a big crayon world.
Fond memories from a long time ago.
RayOnTheFarm | 09.04.08 - 8:34 pm | #
Thanks Ray - its what makes this blog so much fun - folks like yourself who know the lay of the land.
BTW from my neck of the woods - been all over the Midwest over the last few weeks - corn looks ASSKICK even considering the thin spots where the floods took its toll. If there isn't an early frost there is going to be a huge bumper.
So no famine this fall anyway.
Reminds me of some one anonymous on this blog who kept saying all summer something about 'assimilation' or something like that.
I don't know where they'll store it all there looks to be so much.
8 PM models for Ike are even more divergent. 2 now show him entering the GoM, 1 shows him striking S. Florida, 3 now show him making a turn north along the east coast.
Still want to wait until Sunday before you start betting on these models.
mouse, I had the buy prior to your post, but like all things in the marketplace, you makes your bets, and you takes your chances. The ones Im seeing now have great big dollar signs b-bulging out the eyes in cartoonish fashion.
small victories, thats all its about. Swingin for the fences gets you Bear Stearned.
Still want to wait until Sunday before you start betting on these models.
zackattack | Homepage | 09.04.08 - 8:55 pm | #
Put me down for a run north in the wake of Hanna.
But if it does go into the Gulf - that would be nasty... again.
Somebody noted the H&S in the $RUT.
Pull out a 2-year on the utes, the XLU, or any utilities index. Just broke its little neckline. SDP is one potential instrument.
chas sucks
good point
am i reading that right...
nikkei down over 300 points in the first hour of trading!!! yikes
zackattack,
LOL, I held a small position in SDP (near its inception) for over a year, sold for a small profit in July, and only now does it look like its gonna take off
We'll see what Ike looks like tomorrow.
The 2 PM models should be posted about the time the margin clerk gets through.
I think oil near 100, DIG at 70, the dollar/yen cross being what it is, it's a good time to cover the materials shorts and maybe take a defined-risk shot at an oil bounce.
I think if half the models put it in the gulf, I'm going to take a shot at it.
I'm just mulling all this right now.
zackattack,
Those risk/reward for that trade have improved, form one perspective, since last week... Although, I'd caution (since so many were boasting over the holiday about OIH calls and such) to sell the news - wait for the event first.
I lived in Milford MA in 1975, and the old timers who built my house ( plaster lathe walls, no drywall ), STILL talk about the 1938 hurricane. It blew over farm buildings, and all their chicken coops. Milford is just south of Framingham. They said it was nasty.
Lefty,
Now they talk about The Blizzard of '78 everytime we get more than 6" of snow.
Have some personal observations and experiences about 'troll hunting' or blog content control.
Troll hunters will falsely charge a blogger who has made comments they don't like with an accusation or a derogatory label.
I've seen it where a troll hunter or blog censor will actually accuse the labeled or targeted blogger with some form of hate speech or will give the blogger a label that is a code word for 'insane'.
The troll hunter will use hateful labels to egg the unwelcome blogger into a fight thus changing the subject and bringing out the worse in the guest blogger.
All the blogs are moderated or monitored to some degree by blog owners but there's 'regular' bloggers who will hunt for perceived trolls and first try and ignore them and if that doesn't work aggressively confront them.
The guest blogger or lurker who decided to comment may have tried to discuss a taboo, over-the-official-line, off-limits, or generally censored issue that may not be allowed either in the mainstream media.
I've actually seen the censorship process escalate where 'veiled threat' quotes will be used to intimidate the blog visitor but these quotes are vague and not attributed to the troll hunter.
You can observe this troll hunter censorship or gatekeeping process surface from time to time and it's interesting how it plays out. Usually it just discourages the blogger who made the politically incorrect or official line doubting comments from posting anymore and kills the discussion which is not always off-topic, just an incorrect narrative or script.
Sometimes troll hunters are just defending the establishment official version of some event or process and will use code word labeling like 'troll', 'tin foil hatter', or 'conspiracy theorist' to castigate, invalidate, marginalize, condemn, and intimidate the 'off-topic' blogger into being quiet or going away.
I just kinda stumbled in this troll hunter process making comments here and there on other blogs.
Another tactic used is to invite the unwelcome blogger on to another site to get the unacceptable discussion off the popular blog. You find out there hasn't been any comment 'activity' in the blog you were 'invited' to for months. It's just to sideline the recalcitrant politically incorrect blogger.
I just noticed the intensity of the troll hunter personal attacks and noticed it would follow this pattern of ignore, accuse, put down, and turn up the verbal attack until all hell breaks loose and the Cat In The Hat has to be called in.
The debate of economic and political issues is very controlled in the mainstream media as many bloggers point out over and over. But there's 'editing' underway in most popular blogs, especially the popular ones with the high comment counts.
And there's regular 'blog editors' patrolling every blog for off-limits analysis and subject matter. I can understand the need for topics on threads but I have followed up with the 'regulars' making comments and been blasted for coming (uninvited) on the scene with content that is apparently not allowed.
This same trolling for trolls process is going on at Nouriel Roubini's and Mish's blogs.
I know the name tags of these 'editors' and as I said the tactics can get pretty nasty in confronting the unwelcome blogger who will be labeled with the code words 'troll', 'tin foil hat', conspiracy theorist', or 'scum' which will have a chilling effect on the 'outside' blogger or 'insane' blogger who may be challenging conventional 'wisdom' or 'knowledge'.
Conjure and I hope all of you in hurricane country--especially LawyerLiz, whose comments we enjoy--remain safe.
Lefty, it may interest you to know that the old-timers in New Hampshire can also tell stories about the '38 hurricane.
I've been living in Miami for a few years and Ike is making me nervous. The paths seem really direct. We've been lucky for a few years, but given the activity et al of the season, Ike could really pack a punh. Thoughts?
KSMIAMI, do you feel lucky?
I think that's what it comes down to. If I lived where you do, and could come up with an excuse to leave town, I'd certainly do so.
But, I'm a great avoider, so you might want to consult with Conjure.
Good lord, now it is the hurricane with its predatory landing practice that further justifies the obnoxious spewing of doom and gloom on this site.
And Wikipedia? It's right up there with the National Enquirer.
JHC
KSMIAMI,
You should speak with some locals you know who survived Andrew.
I've been living in Orlando since '01, got walloped by Charlie in '04 (terrible, considering we're so inland), and I had a roommate my first year of college who was from Miami. He survived Andrew, but everything he cared about (including his church) was destroyed. That turned him atheist, he said. :=O
btw...it's a big freakin' peninsula in hurricane alley. Always has been. Perhaps you can sue the mortgage company for "letting" you borrow money to buy there, because certainly you couldn't have anticipated that a freakin' hurricane or two might come through? Better yet, why don't we just have the federal government pick up the tab?
"I've been living in Orlando since '01, got walloped by Charlie in '04 (terrible, considering we're so inland)"
Ummmmmm....Orlando is about 30-40 miles inland. A big ass hurricane, like Ike, is about 350 miles nose to ass. There is no place in Florida that is "so inland" in comparison to this.
HWRF and GFDL models have been most accurate lately. Both have IKE in the Gulf of Mexico in a few days. Subject to change of course.
Hurricane Ike : Weather Underground
JHC,
Even a "big ass" hurricane will slow down by the time it reaches central Florida - unless it enters the way Charlie did. It went so diagonally, practically straight sideways West to East coast, that we were pummeled by Category 2 forces that shouldn't usually occur inland. Charlie was a freak. We lost so many beautiful trees; they all fell over in ugliness. Hope it doesn't happen again during my stay here.
I might be confusing my Categories. It was 2 or 3 but I don't think 4. Enough to push cars around. Scary stuff.
It doesn't matter how it enters, it matters what is in the swath for the first 50-100 miles. Andrew entered and exited straight on and did some major ass kicking all the way through the peninsula.
JHC,
Funny, I was just reflecting on that point, it matters what is in the swath for the first 50-100 miles, a moment ago. Charlie should have hit Tampa. Sorry to say it, but coastal Florida cities deserve to be a protective barrier for inner Florida. Alas, it ran through mostly trailer park trash, bypassing Tampa, before it hit us.
I don't know where they'll store it all there looks to be so much.
Crank all the ethanol plants up to full speed ?
Andrew gained strength as it crossed the swamps of South Florida and then went to GOM and near New Orleans as a CAT 3 in Louisiana.
Hurricane Andrew, 1992 / Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping
Paths of Past Hurricanes (mentioned above):
1926 Miami Hurricane
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1926/6/track.gif
1992 Hurricane Andrew
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1992/ANDREW/track.gif
1938 New England Hurricane
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1938/4/track.gif
2004 Hurricane Charlie
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/CHARLEY/track.gif
IKE
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2008/IKE/track.gif
This is a 'hurricane' thread...so I'll repeat my concerns on editing blog content another time when more appropriate plus a script of an actual example of an 'exchange' I'm refering to because it's interesting how some of these 'flame wars' actually originate from 'regulars'.
All 6 models now have Ike in the GoM as a Cat 3.
I had a scaled bid out there... a little at 69.50, a little more at 69, more at 68.50, etc.
Only got hit on the first lot. Small positions are a good thing. I may regret not taking the 4 sticks at the close. Now committed until the Monday open.
With the 8 PM runs, 4 of the 6 models are now pointing it at the LA coast for a Friday landfall.
1 takes it into the panhandle, another to a south Florida landfall Tuesday.