It's also the revisions to the prior months that terrible. June adjusted from -51K to -100K. No doubt this month's figure, -84K will be revised to well below -100K. And the game of which content's crap stinks the worse continues..
Gee ain't nice to get the truthier version out later than sooner:
The Labor Department said 84,000 jobs were lost in August, significantly higher than the 75,000 that economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast. In addition, July's job losses were revised up to 60,000 and June's to 100,000 from a previously reported 51,000 in each month.
I want to disabuse American faithful of any thought that the Fed can prevent the above scenario. Beyond helping Bankrupters and Fraudsters the Fed is impotent. “The US taxpayers are the losers of last resort”!>>
To this I can add:
Global recession -- > Global Depression -- > Govt failures in many countries, including India -- > Collapse of the current US political system (approx. in 20 years).
All this because of the ABUSE OF DEBT as never before in history. None of the above would have to happen if America was not controlled by the worst criminal gang in all of history.
We're also so early in this "recession" that we're undoubtedly going to hit 7% UER sometime next year. I think by "10-by-ten" forecast sounds more plausible every month (10% UER by 2010).
But why do jobs matter? After all, if somebody making $60,000 a year can "buy" an "affordable" $400,000 "starter townhouse" in nuthouse states like Maryland, why should jobs matter at all. For the past 7+ years, incomes haven't made any difference as the nation happily spent money it never had and could never afford to pay back. Oops - I guess now the bill is due. Duh!
I can't wait to see the presidential candidates prattle on about this (or just ignore it.) Neither one is going to stand up to the corrupt businesses or bring jobs back to American. I recall reading about some poor counties out in the sticks where the only jobs were Wal-mart positions and joining the military - how very feudal - become a serf or a conscript in the Baron's army! How far we've come...
Drew writes:
Count me as jobless! Oh wait, not counted as I'm disgruntled or self-employed... can't decide which...
Drew | 09.05.08 - 8:59 am | #
Ya that would be me.
What is wired is I always keep feelers out to see if I want to quit being 'self-employed' or would I want to go to work for somebody as an 'employee'... I am getting swamped by head-hunters right now looking for 'hunter sales types'...
I am not certain that is as bullish as it sounds... probably means their existing book of business is drying up and their good old boy network of contacts is drying up. They need to find new business fast and don't know how to do it.
I'm guessing a lot of companies are in that position right about now.
And just to test the limit of one's patience with the BLS, the birth/death adjustment was +125,000, including 16,000 new construction jobs and 9,000 new financial services jobs.
don't worry, less jobs will spur the economy....get it. Just like lower oil will spur the economy. So basically what i'm saying is a slower economy will drive this economy higher. now go about your business.
i got words for this economic environment. Ug-Lee.
"And just to test the limit of one's patience with the BLS, the birth/death adjustment was +125,000, including 16,000 new construction jobs and 9,000 new financial services jobs. "
Add to this that in same time last year they added "just" 102K.....
I'm looking for some headhunters who are looking for hunters.
Send me a e-mail address or two.
Anonymous | 09.05.08 - 9:16 am | #
Post your resume on Monster, CB - brief version no need for a lot of detail and highlight in BOLD near the top somewhere that you are a HUNTER NOT A FARMER & can demonstrate this quickly - I did that and got swamped... seriously. I turn most away UNLESS it is close to what I really want to do.
Now understand I am a HUNTER inside MFG sector w/ a strong materials background (think metals & plastics & 'conversion processes') w/ the weak dollar that's a rather hot sector right now.
yesterday was the warm-up act; the real show opens today and/or Monday and beyond... profound affects.
(if you must watch, put down the popcorn or chew very carefully.)
CR--just curious--but I noticed your piece/chart did not have the usual "probable recession" for 2008 on it. Omission or have you decided that it's a foregone conclusion at this point? Thanks!
Anonymous writes:
yesterday was the warm-up act; the real show opens today and/or Monday and beyond...
Popeye adds: ...and keep Sunday evening free just in case Uncle Ben or Master Paulson decide they need to change some rules before the Asian markets open.
Anonymouse, so much depends on how quickly other economies slow down - impacting export related jobs. Right now, I still think the peak will be less than 8% for the headine number.
Still a jump from 4.4% to 6.1% in 18 months is a pretty sharp increase.
Dave, just an oversight, but I do think the recession argument is over.
Nordics (Sweden and Finland) experienced about 15-16 percent unemployment rate within two years from the start of their very similar housing bust/trade deficit/consumer overspending combo recession in the early 90's.
Over half percent in just two months is very similar what Nordics went through for many many months. This is not Japan style recession at all.
The economic data coming from USA now are just much much worse so 25 percent unemployment rate or even more is not out of the question. 15 percent is a sure bet by now. This is just the beginning...
--
Wacky World of CR (economy and housing demand):
We are in a recession.
Jobs are being lost.
New home are being built and started.
Vacant Units keep increasing.
And yet “the housing inventory is being worked off.” CR cannot comprehend the idea if negative housing demand that happens during recessions, especially, during credit-led severe recessions. During 2008-10 the Total Occupied Units should decline by 2-5M (demand being negative). This should leave 25M Total Vacant Units by the end of 2010.
And that is U3, which is a bit of an undercount given structural changes in the economy (more contractors, self-employed, involuntary part-time) - take a gander at U6 for that real unsettled feeling in your tummy.
I live in London. I have just had a short exchange about matters economic with a friend, a lawyer in Dallas, Texas. This is what he has to say:
"Just because London is running out of cash? My cousin, an MD doing analysis of x-ray pictures, was just offered a job in Boston for USD 330,000 per annum. Russia is so rich, it started invading foreign countries again. China has not been hit. Matt is doing better than ever at Bloomberg. The economy is great.
WHY ARE YOU SO PESSIMISTIC?"
Anonymous writes:
hey sailor man-
we are looking at the same charts
A-mouse: Just as an aside, it would have been nice if you had reminded me that the 1172 number I kept ranting about was the 50% fib retracement of the spx.
"Popeye adds: ...and keep Sunday evening free just in case Uncle Ben or Master Paulson decide they need to change some rules before the Asian markets open."
That be a week from Sunday, the modus operandi witht these clowns is the week of options experation, don't get caught on the wrong side.
It is my understanding that Finland's big early 90s recession had an enormous amount to do with the fact that they had a very important trade relationship with the Soviet Union, which promptly collapsed.
As for unemployment rates above 10.8% (reached in November/December 1982) I think I'll wait a while before I start making any specific predictions.
My feeling is that unemployment is likely to get over 10% at some point. Nevertheless the real issue will be the rate at which the unemployment rate drops once a peak has been reached.
The peak may only be 8.0%. The problem is, however, that the eventual recovery may only result in moderate employment growth - say a drop from 8.0% to 6.0% over a three year period.
Add to this any more inflationary pressures and you might have to have the Fed raising rates during a recession.
For once I agree with Janet Yellen. Rather than being a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate signals that we are in an adverse feedback loop of credit tightening leading to job loss leading to credit tightening.
There are two "endogenous" factors that Ben Bernanke blames for the Great Depression: bank failures and tight money (specifically, a stagnant monetary base). The Yellen comments yesterday and Unemployment number today give BB license to attack both. By attack, I mean no-holes-barred.
The deflationists argue that lower rates won't produce economic growth. That misses the point. What matters to BB is to not allow the monetary base to shrink as it did in much of the world in the 30's. This likely means, in his mind, that he has to cut rates aggressively.
Jeff, you must be close to Lexembourg...I loved there for a few years and that is the morning greeting of the Luxembourgers. I haven't heard or seen that in years.
The economic data coming from USA now are just much much worse so 25 percent unemployment rate or even more is not out of the question. 15 percent is a sure bet by now. This is just the beginning...
I think a short but deep recession with minimal bailouts is the best possible outcome at this point.
We widely recognize that it's sometimes necessary for corporations to go through painful restructurings and downsizing to maximize longer-term productivity.
Why does the same concept not apply to the broader economy?
dashingdwl writes:
08:32 ECONX June nonfarm number revised to -100K from -51K
What? The previous months losses were off by double?!?
By Oct, June will be revised to -130K.
Real rate of unemployment must be in the 10-12% range.
That's the big news. The last data was off by a factor of TWO! Holy crap.
This should leave 25M Total Vacant Units by the end of 2010.
Any comments from anyone?
Ozymandias | 09.05.08 - 9:54 am | #
it's contained.
Basically your in a bad spot if you are in:
Media
advertising
real estate
constuction
airlines
trucking/freight
hospitality
restaurants
retail
landscaping
recreational vehicles
Marine Trade (recreational boats etc)
automobiles (domestic)
Finance/mortgage
and housing related insudtries (tile, cabinets, appliances, carpet, architecture)
You're totally OK if you're in Health care
energy
Halliburton
defense
export industries
por
Basically your in a bad spot if you are in:
Media
advertising
real estate
constuction
airlines
trucking/freight
hospitality
restaurants
retail
landscaping
recreational vehicles
Marine Trade (recreational boats etc)
automobiles (domestic)
Finance/mortgage
and housing related insudtries (tile, cabinets, appliances, carpet, architecture)
You're totally OK if you're in Health care
energy
Halliburton
defense
export industries
porn"
Law and financial media are not on your list. I'm in healthcare, but I still care about my fellow man.
I've seen and skimmed a number of articles over the past months stating YOY revenue for pornography business is down. Take whatever innuendo you like from that.
MBA data on deliquencies and foreclosures are out, just like you said they'd be. Foreclosure rate 1.19%, first time above 1%. Subprime deliqencies slowed, but primes more than made up for it.
Ozymandias writes:
I live in London. I have just had a short exchange about matters economic with a friend, a lawyer in Dallas, Texas. This is what he has to say:
"Just because London is running out of cash? My cousin, an MD doing analysis of x-ray pictures, was just offered a job in Boston for USD 330,000 per annum. Russia is so rich, it started invading foreign countries again. China has not been hit. Matt is doing better than ever at Bloomberg. The economy is great.
WHY ARE YOU SO PESSIMISTIC?"
Any comments from anyone?
How does it feel to have "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone"?
You need to be careful when you talk about businesses. I am in trucking and frankly we are not doing to bad...My friends with truck and auto shops are frankly buried in work and screaming to find QUALIFIED employees.
I am going to be frank...nobody wants to turn wrenches any more(good for me).
By the way, the claim was made earlier that the 84k drop in jobs was substantially different from the median estimate of a 75k drop. For the uninitiated, a drop of 84k jobs is not, repeat not, a significantly bigger drop than the median forecast of -75k. A 9k forecasting miss is, in this series, no miss at all. The January and February reports, for which the median forecast was off by closer to 80k per month - those were substantial misses.
Dallas has had a great economy for those who can get the work. House prices didn't get all crazy and many people here who do lose their job, can find another one. some might be underemployed, but still employed. the people who aren't getting the benefits are mostly lower class, inner city and not white.
no income tax tricks many into thinking we have low taxes. the sales tax here is pretty high. they have to dip into sales tax to pay for schools because the lotto just ain't cutting it.
i think many people here have a disconnect between them and the rest of the metroplex. many drive out to the suburbs to their mcmansion and don't actually live in dallas. some of the lowest tax rates are out in places like "White Settlement".
I wonder if the birth/death model is including in the "birth" numbers those folks who are unemployed and selling their garage junk on ebay, (their new business start up).
OK, the boob tube was on Beverly Hills 90210 at my house last night. I was too lazy to get up and do something productive so I watched. Very little face time was given to the poor girl struggling because her mom was behind on the mortgage. Most face time was given to the kids with the Ferrari's, Porsche's and the Bentley's. Private jets to whisk the new gal off to San Fran for dinner, shit like that. Life is great!
American dribble.
California dreaming baby, California dreaming.
Here's a Dean Baker's <a href="http://www.cepr.net/index.php/data-bytes/jobs-bytes/unemployment-jumps-to-6.1-percent,-women-hit-hardest/>Jobs byte wrap-up of the NFP.
If you've lifted the hiring freeze, it's because you're paying FLAT-RATE (aka COMMISSION ONLY) and your techs don't get paid when there is no work.
They stand around their toolboxes and wait for someone to pull up... there's no payroll overhead when there's no work.
Run an hourly or salary shop with mechanics getting paid to clean up or stand around... You'll slap your "hiring freeze" back on so fast your head will spin...
It's not the monetary base that's shrinking; it's credit that's contracting.
Wow, someone here gets it. The effects you see have nothing to do with the monetary base. It's credit that's collapsing...and that, as many of us have said all along, is DEFLATIONARY. Welcome to deflation kids. It's here for a while to come.
And, btw, I've said that the unemployment rate will be lucky to crest above 7% and I still stand by that. My personal prediction is somewhere around 6.7%. The real story here is exports. For all of you screaming that the Fed will cut rates forget it. He needs the dollar to appreciate enough to affect the price of oil, but not so much to kill off the exports which is keeping us alive at this point. China is going to be a real mess. So watch what is happening there with the central bank. No one is going to be buying much of what China produces for a while...and that's going to have an incredible affect.
And while I'm on a roll...Trichet is a moron. The ECB is going to single-handedly cause the Eurozone to fall into a recession that's going to make ours look mild. He's fighting the wrong battle right now, and should be cutting like hell to stave off what is about to happen. But, then again, if they lowered they'd be admitting that their call was seriously wrong, so they have to stand pat for a while longer. They are human and won't admit to error.
His problem is DEFLATION and not INFLATION. It's going to hit the Eurozone with as much vengeance as it hit us. In Spain, maybe more.
Someone here was talking about manufacturing overcapacity a few weeks ago and mentioned that China was going to get hammered badly. When that happens, look for our export biz to pop.
When was the last time a president presided over two recessions during his term in office?
One Salient Oversight | Homepage | 09.05.08 - 10:14 am | #
Nixon
By the way i do agree with CR that unemployment will prob not top 8%. There has been a structural change in the economy, mostly ude to demographics where it takes very little in the way of job growth to keep the unemployment rate low. Just look at the graph CR put up. Back in the 80's employment could growth consistantly at 3%+ and still have higher unemployment than we have today. The reason baby boomers enerting the labor force and the entry of women into the labor force. The first factor is now starting to go into reverse (will accelerate in coming years) and the second has reached saturation. Keep an eye on the employment to population ratio, we will probably see a series of lower peaks and valleys in it over the next few decades, even with lower unemployment rates. Simply a smaller % of the population in the workforce.
The over-optimism of Texans over the decades immediately leads me to discount any and all of their observations. Think of the insurance debacles of the 70s and the S&L bust during the 80s & 90s. And of course our fine president. Trust their judgement at your peril.
The B/D adjustments actually ADDED jobs to the total in construction and fianance...WTF?!! They manipulate the numbers with this B/D caculation, but how stupid do they think we are? Construction and fianance added jobs, and the tooth fairy brought me a pony last nite, boy was my pillow lumpy this morning!
Be sure and vote republican, so these same kooks at Labor can keep cooking the books. Did you notice who was the FIRST to greet McCain on the rope line after his speech? Elaine Cho, Bush's Sect. of Labor, thats who.
she's the Queen bee at Labor, and she has her hand in all the book cooking going on!
Ozymandias: Tell your friend in Dallas to compare the Dallas ecomonmy of 1982 to the Dallas economy of 1987.
Sure things are great in Dallas now. Oil is booming. Dallas/Houston have different economic cycles. Tell your friend to save some of the fruits of his great, local economy.
Ipodius: I think ECB will start to cut soon, especially if they follow through on their threat to greatly reduce the amount of crap loans/exchanges they're giving to local banks.
"I see a Head & Shoulder of a Vietnamese mouse pattern for the US economy. It is headed down the toilet."
LOL! You are the best Jas! BTW, you've been right about everything from day one and you still are. Slowly, other folks are coming around to your way of thinking.
The problem has been that GD2 is taking a long time to build up steam, so it's hard to see it for what it is - a great and historic credit bust. CR (or somebody on the blog) said the other day that this won't be a bust witnessing large-scale layoffs like the type we had in the past. It will be more like water-torture, one small drip at a time, that lasts for years and years, slowly eroding the economy away.
Also, people keep looking for a 1929-style stock crash or other similar event to ring the bell that GD2 is here. This may or may not happen, although certainly the stock market will head lower from today's lofty levels.
One thing I have to quibble about is you often refer to the criminal gang running things in the US, but this is nothing new. This same group of thugs have been around a LONG time, and have controlled the banking system in this country since at least the time of Alexander Hamilton and the great Continentals looting operation circa 1790:
What would the unemployment rate be if we were using the older methods of computing unemployment (apples to apples comparison with say, how things were computed during the great depression)?
I don't know how the unemployed and underemployed are going to afford their new Texas electric bills. I received a letter from my provider, First Choice Power, with notice that my 'ocked in' 11.5 cent kwh rate would increase to 17.9 kwh when my 1 yr contract expires. Next August my $300 bill will be more like $450 if I'm lucky. Of course I'll be shopping rates but doutful I'll find a much lower rate thanks to deregulation. I have the air off and the windows open and today's high is 92. What is my rate going to be in 10 years?
Minimum age: 21 (lower in some agencies)
Education: H.S. diploma or G.E.D.
Starting pay: $50k+ in So CA.
Double-plus: the safest cities pay the best. You make more money and get shot at less often.
Benefits: out the wazoo
Job security: none better
Retire: At age 50 with 90% of your salary
Job openings: Everywhere, all the time.
"His problem is DEFLATION and not INFLATION. It's going to hit the Eurozone with as much vengeance as it hit us. In Spain, maybe more."
Ipodious you positively reak of american exceptionalism.
Trichet is doing exactly what is needed. Because europeans actually pay their workers a LIVING wage (SHOCK, HORROR!) their economic system is prone to wage inflation spirals. Europe also has a real economy that is not on based on derivatives, leveraged credit, and exponential growth.
When the dollar takes its next brutal leg down the Euro likely be the world's reserve currency.
o doubt the deflation argument is winning and at work viciously in the mktplace right now. massive deleveraging/massice de-risking is the only function in today's fnncl mkts. fine...but to think that this recent dollar strength (which comes from the delveraging out there) can last vs tangible goods/cmmdties is just wrong...why? reason 1. the dollar is fiat and has no backing. hence, its overcreation since 1971..in the 1930's the dollar was tied to a gold standard of $20.67 an ounce and then 1935- $35.00 an ounce...the deflation of the 1930's was all about the scarcity of the usdollar. there wasnt enough around and they couldnt make any or bail-out any big banks because they had to dig those needed dollars out of the ground. reason 2. world's population growth from 900ad to 1880 ad was like 600mm to 850mm...very steady small growth...from 1880 to today, its up above 6.7 bln people..these 6.7 bln people do not need fnncl assets or paper money to survive and continue. they need wheat, corn, oil, gas, copper, timber, aluminum, etc...this is what is going on here...a major shift out of fnncl assets into tangible goods...
"China is going to be a smoldering ruin of overcapacity, yet the USA is going to stay afloat with exports?
Well, gee, that makes complete sense...I don't know what I was worried about."
Indeed, it is a nonsense statement. And who are we going to export to? Not that it matters since we can't afford our own products anymore, and jobs won't be returning here until we "competitive" with 3rd world labor - living in mud huts and eating 1 meal a day.
Minimum age: 21 (lower in some agencies)
Education: H.S. diploma or G.E.D.
Starting pay: $50k+ in So CA.
Double-plus: the safest cities pay the best. You make more money and get shot at less often.
Benefits: out the wazoo
Job security: none better
Retire: At age 50 with 90% of your salary
Job openings: Everywhere, all the time.
-Feckless Ness
Hmmm. Well, it looks like a lot of the soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan in the coming years will have a career just waiting for them. That is something I've been wondering about lately.
I don't know how the unemployed and underemployed are going to afford their new Texas electric bills. I received a letter from my provider, First Choice Power, with notice that my 'ocked in' 11.5 cent kwh rate would increase to 17.9 kwh when my 1 yr contract expires. Next August my $300 bill will be more like $450 if I'm lucky. Of course I'll be shopping rates but doutful I'll find a much lower rate thanks to deregulation. I have the air off and the windows open and today's high is 92. What is my rate going to be in 10 years?
-FFDIC
This study is really long, but I thought that it illustrates how "choice" gets over valued by people. When I hear the choice mantra I immediately become suspicious.
Study: "The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft"
http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~cadem/bio/massey%20&%20thaler%20-%20loser's%20curse.pdf
Well, we do seem to be discounting the fact that China is NOT a democracy or a capitalist country and run instead by people who will do anything they can to keep thier growth rates just high enough to stave off mass discontent. Hence, they will start spending their huge surplus on themselves as opposed to financing the debt of the USA or Mr&Mrs OrangeCountyHummerDrivinIdiots. Now this might very well keep those precious US exports up which CR has noted is already a main component to that potential 8% being hit or not.
I think house prices are going to continue down and as stated, it's not a monetary issue, rather a confidence issue expressed through high mortgages to those who can get them (it makes me think of the Golden Tickets in the Willy Wonka stories they seem to be so rare...).
For the above reasons I think Jas is wrong about a commodities bust. Whilst there will/is a dip it will come back up, the rest of the developing world will not stop simply because the US has, they will still buy and run their surpluses down. Whereas the US will see deflation, they will see continued, though moderate to occasionally high inflation.
I don't think there is a complete picture yet, there's still so many 'ifs' but for the US it's not looking good.
As for getting paid $330K for looking at x-rays, I gues broken bones is good business!
Cheers
BAO
PS - if you strongly disagree with me then please tell me WHY you have a different opinion. It's always good to read worked out opinions.
First!
Ruh roh... bad news for the pump monkeys.
Can I haz a job and a dime?
Feldstien (from NBER) was on CNBC staing recession since Jan (his opinon, not NBER)
Reminds me of the old joke (hat tip to Mr. Buffett):
"Buddy, can you spare a dime?"
"Sorry son, all my money's tied up in currency"
Analysis that I have seen predicts it will go over 7.
I now have four immediate friends who are jobless as of the past 3 months.
CR,
(asked politely) Do you still believe this recession will not be "severe" - greater than 8% UER?
Birth Death fantasay 125k add...lmfao
Count me as jobless! Oh wait, not counted as I'm disgruntled or self-employed... can't decide which...
It's also the revisions to the prior months that terrible. June adjusted from -51K to -100K. No doubt this month's figure, -84K will be revised to well below -100K. And the game of which content's crap stinks the worse continues..
08:32 ECONX June nonfarm number revised to -100K from -51K
What? The previous months losses were off by double?!?
By Oct, June will be revised to -130K.
Real rate of unemployment must be in the 10-12% range.
By Oct, June will be revised to -130K.
Real rate of unemployment must be in the 10-12% range.
Yes, but by then we'll be in recovery!
Gee ain't nice to get the truthier version out later than sooner:
The Labor Department said 84,000 jobs were lost in August, significantly higher than the 75,000 that economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast. In addition, July's job losses were revised up to 60,000 and June's to 100,000 from a previously reported 51,000 in each month.
Let's see if this will stem the dollar's run.
Birth/Death has become a total joke...why not just add 250k then the total will be positive.
Feldstien also stated the 2nd qtr GDP was meaingless...he is a McSame advisor btw
The Important Economic and Political Sequence to Keep In Mind
The following is what I sent out couple of months ago:
Depression -- > Deflation -- > Greater Depression.
I want to disabuse American faithful of any thought that the Fed can prevent the above scenario. Beyond helping Bankrupters and Fraudsters the Fed is impotent. “The US taxpayers are the losers of last resort”!>>
To this I can add:
Global recession -- > Global Depression -- > Govt failures in many countries, including India -- > Collapse of the current US political system (approx. in 20 years).
All this because of the ABUSE OF DEBT as never before in history. None of the above would have to happen if America was not controlled by the worst criminal gang in all of history.
Jas
We're also so early in this "recession" that we're undoubtedly going to hit 7% UER sometime next year. I think by "10-by-ten" forecast sounds more plausible every month (10% UER by 2010).
...and these are the Official numbers too!
"Mission Accomplished!"
But why do jobs matter? After all, if somebody making $60,000 a year can "buy" an "affordable" $400,000 "starter townhouse" in nuthouse states like Maryland, why should jobs matter at all. For the past 7+ years, incomes haven't made any difference as the nation happily spent money it never had and could never afford to pay back. Oops - I guess now the bill is due. Duh!
I can't wait to see the presidential candidates prattle on about this (or just ignore it.) Neither one is going to stand up to the corrupt businesses or bring jobs back to American. I recall reading about some poor counties out in the sticks where the only jobs were Wal-mart positions and joining the military - how very feudal - become a serf or a conscript in the Baron's army! How far we've come...
OT - Some market technicians whom I admire and respect say they're buying any gap down this morning. Think they'll take much of a draw down?
Must make the credit card companies a little nervous.
Drew writes:
Count me as jobless! Oh wait, not counted as I'm disgruntled or self-employed... can't decide which...
Drew | 09.05.08 - 8:59 am | #
Ya that would be me.
What is wired is I always keep feelers out to see if I want to quit being 'self-employed' or would I want to go to work for somebody as an 'employee'... I am getting swamped by head-hunters right now looking for 'hunter sales types'...
I am not certain that is as bullish as it sounds... probably means their existing book of business is drying up and their good old boy network of contacts is drying up. They need to find new business fast and don't know how to do it.
I'm guessing a lot of companies are in that position right about now.
Jas! I've missed you so
"Collapse of the current US political system (approx. in 20 years)."
Could we speed that up by about 19 years the one we have now sucks.
Good think I bought those WB and COF puts on Wednesday.
Miami and South Florida Condo Bubble and Real Estate Crash Blog
Contained! (just like flood waters during Katrina)
I'll take jobs and outsource from my side of the bucket.
Wow, 10.7% by the old-school U6 number.
And just to test the limit of one's patience with the BLS, the birth/death adjustment was +125,000, including 16,000 new construction jobs and 9,000 new financial services jobs.
What could one possibly say to that......
What is clear, if not before as most already strongly suspected it, ANY chance of interest rate hikes anytime soon are completely OFF the table.
--
Got cut off...
US Recession -- > Commodities Bust -- > Depression -- > Deflation -- > Greater Depression.
Jas
dryfly,
I'm looking for some headhunters who are looking for hunters.
Send me a e-mail address or two.
Wait until gm goes down along with chrysler
Don't worry...McCain's "Caribou Barbie" will come to the rescue!
(We are frickin' doomed...got my passport ready)
don't worry, less jobs will spur the economy....get it. Just like lower oil will spur the economy. So basically what i'm saying is a slower economy will drive this economy higher. now go about your business.
i got words for this economic environment. Ug-Lee.
Moin from Germany,
"And just to test the limit of one's patience with the BLS, the birth/death adjustment was +125,000, including 16,000 new construction jobs and 9,000 new financial services jobs. "
Add to this that in same time last year they added "just" 102K.....
Fake Jobs
Anonymous writes:
dryfly,
I'm looking for some headhunters who are looking for hunters.
Send me a e-mail address or two.
Anonymous | 09.05.08 - 9:16 am | #
Post your resume on Monster, CB - brief version no need for a lot of detail and highlight in BOLD near the top somewhere that you are a HUNTER NOT A FARMER & can demonstrate this quickly - I did that and got swamped... seriously. I turn most away UNLESS it is close to what I really want to do.
Now understand I am a HUNTER inside MFG sector w/ a strong materials background (think metals & plastics & 'conversion processes') w/ the weak dollar that's a rather hot sector right now.
Got meetings in an hour - Good Luck!!
CalculatedRisk,
We know you have predicted U-3 (currently at 6.1%) to peak at 8%. What is your predictions for the peaking of U-6 (currently at 12%).
During the last Depression, U-6 peaked at 25%. That's my call. We hit 25% then the New(er) Deal starts.
--
I see a Head & Shoulder of a Vietnamese mouse pattern for the US economy. It is headed down the toilet.
Jas
Strange correlation since 74 this between unemployment, recessions and changes in administrations.
yesterday was the warm-up act; the real show opens today and/or Monday and beyond... profound affects.
(if you must watch, put down the popcorn or chew very carefully.)
So does this Birth/Death model affect how many kids Palin and his teenage daughter actually have this month?
When do I get a rate cut ?
sorry, her
CR--just curious--but I noticed your piece/chart did not have the usual "probable recession" for 2008 on it. Omission or have you decided that it's a foregone conclusion at this point? Thanks!
Anonymous writes:
yesterday was the warm-up act; the real show opens today and/or Monday and beyond...
Popeye adds: ...and keep Sunday evening free just in case Uncle Ben or Master Paulson decide they need to change some rules before the Asian markets open.
My Fed Funds rate goes to.....-11!
PS - At least the employed won't have to pay their fraudulent mortgages!
...meant unemployed...
Don't worry, I am going get some coffee.
Anonymouse, so much depends on how quickly other economies slow down - impacting export related jobs. Right now, I still think the peak will be less than 8% for the headine number.
Still a jump from 4.4% to 6.1% in 18 months is a pretty sharp increase.
Dave, just an oversight, but I do think the recession argument is over.
Best to all.
The war against the middle class is going well 1/3 ain't bad for the shrub. I can't wait to see the post election revisions to unemployment.
hey sailor man-
we are looking at the same charts
the 8th is unsettling...
(the opposition on the 11-4 comes next.)
Nordics (Sweden and Finland) experienced about 15-16 percent unemployment rate within two years from the start of their very similar housing bust/trade deficit/consumer overspending combo recession in the early 90's.
Over half percent in just two months is very similar what Nordics went through for many many months. This is not Japan style recession at all.
The economic data coming from USA now are just much much worse so 25 percent unemployment rate or even more is not out of the question. 15 percent is a sure bet by now. This is just the beginning...
A-mouse,
Someone with a fistful of yen is doing their damnedest to stuff the goose this morning...
8% unemployment coming? Ick.
--
Wacky World of CR (economy and housing demand):
And yet “the housing inventory is being worked off.” CR cannot comprehend the idea if negative housing demand that happens during recessions, especially, during credit-led severe recessions. During 2008-10 the Total Occupied Units should decline by 2-5M (demand being negative). This should leave 25M Total Vacant Units by the end of 2010.
Jas
2s,
And that is U3, which is a bit of an undercount given structural changes in the economy (more contractors, self-employed, involuntary part-time) - take a gander at U6 for that real unsettled feeling in your tummy.
I live in London. I have just had a short exchange about matters economic with a friend, a lawyer in Dallas, Texas. This is what he has to say:
"Just because London is running out of cash? My cousin, an MD doing analysis of x-ray pictures, was just offered a job in Boston for USD 330,000 per annum. Russia is so rich, it started invading foreign countries again. China has not been hit. Matt is doing better than ever at Bloomberg. The economy is great.
WHY ARE YOU SO PESSIMISTIC?"
Any comments from anyone?
Anonymous writes:
hey sailor man-
we are looking at the same charts
A-mouse: Just as an aside, it would have been nice if you had reminded me that the 1172 number I kept ranting about was the 50% fib retracement of the spx.
"Popeye adds: ...and keep Sunday evening free just in case Uncle Ben or Master Paulson decide they need to change some rules before the Asian markets open."
That be a week from Sunday, the modus operandi witht these clowns is the week of options experation, don't get caught on the wrong side.
really not this time...
that reference is to the 7th!
Popeye | 09.05.08 - 9:55 am | #
too many anonymice running about.
sorry wrong mouse, if it was me I would have told you...
AlphaBeta,
It is my understanding that Finland's big early 90s recession had an enormous amount to do with the fact that they had a very important trade relationship with the Soviet Union, which promptly collapsed.
As for unemployment rates above 10.8% (reached in November/December 1982) I think I'll wait a while before I start making any specific predictions.
My feeling is that unemployment is likely to get over 10% at some point. Nevertheless the real issue will be the rate at which the unemployment rate drops once a peak has been reached.
The peak may only be 8.0%. The problem is, however, that the eventual recovery may only result in moderate employment growth - say a drop from 8.0% to 6.0% over a three year period.
Add to this any more inflationary pressures and you might have to have the Fed raising rates during a recession.
Bring on Volcker.
For once I agree with Janet Yellen. Rather than being a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate signals that we are in an adverse feedback loop of credit tightening leading to job loss leading to credit tightening.
There are two "endogenous" factors that Ben Bernanke blames for the Great Depression: bank failures and tight money (specifically, a stagnant monetary base). The Yellen comments yesterday and Unemployment number today give BB license to attack both. By attack, I mean no-holes-barred.
The deflationists argue that lower rates won't produce economic growth. That misses the point. What matters to BB is to not allow the monetary base to shrink as it did in much of the world in the 30's. This likely means, in his mind, that he has to cut rates aggressively.
It's not the monetary base that's shrinking; it's credit that's contracting.
jmf writes:
Moin from Germany,
Jeff, you must be close to Lexembourg...I loved there for a few years and that is the morning greeting of the Luxembourgers. I haven't heard or seen that in years.
ummmm....I lived there. Not Loved. But i had a girlfriend there, so I guess i did "love" there also.
This is not Japan style recession at all.
Good.
The economic data coming from USA now are just much much worse so 25 percent unemployment rate or even more is not out of the question. 15 percent is a sure bet by now. This is just the beginning...
I think a short but deep recession with minimal bailouts is the best possible outcome at this point.
We widely recognize that it's sometimes necessary for corporations to go through painful restructurings and downsizing to maximize longer-term productivity.
Why does the same concept not apply to the broader economy?
dashingdwl writes:
08:32 ECONX June nonfarm number revised to -100K from -51K
What? The previous months losses were off by double?!?
By Oct, June will be revised to -130K.
Real rate of unemployment must be in the 10-12% range.
That's the big news. The last data was off by a factor of TWO! Holy crap.
This should leave 25M Total Vacant Units by the end of 2010.
So that means buy now, right?
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Any comments from anyone?
Ozymandias | 09.05.08 - 9:54 am | #
it's contained.
Basically your in a bad spot if you are in:
Media
advertising
real estate
constuction
airlines
trucking/freight
hospitality
restaurants
retail
landscaping
recreational vehicles
Marine Trade (recreational boats etc)
automobiles (domestic)
Finance/mortgage
and housing related insudtries (tile, cabinets, appliances, carpet, architecture)
You're totally OK if you're in Health care
energy
Halliburton
defense
export industries
por
"it's contained.
Basically your in a bad spot if you are in:
Media
advertising
real estate
constuction
airlines
trucking/freight
hospitality
restaurants
retail
landscaping
recreational vehicles
Marine Trade (recreational boats etc)
automobiles (domestic)
Finance/mortgage
and housing related insudtries (tile, cabinets, appliances, carpet, architecture)
You're totally OK if you're in Health care
energy
Halliburton
defense
export industries
porn"
Law and financial media are not on your list. I'm in healthcare, but I still care about my fellow man.
Escariot,
I've seen and skimmed a number of articles over the past months stating YOY revenue for pornography business is down. Take whatever innuendo you like from that.
When was the last time a president presided over two recessions during his term in office?
The entire porn business is "innuendo".
MBA data on deliquencies and foreclosures are out, just like you said they'd be. Foreclosure rate 1.19%, first time above 1%. Subprime deliqencies slowed, but primes more than made up for it.
Ozymandias writes:
I live in London. I have just had a short exchange about matters economic with a friend, a lawyer in Dallas, Texas. This is what he has to say:
"Just because London is running out of cash? My cousin, an MD doing analysis of x-ray pictures, was just offered a job in Boston for USD 330,000 per annum. Russia is so rich, it started invading foreign countries again. China has not been hit. Matt is doing better than ever at Bloomberg. The economy is great.
WHY ARE YOU SO PESSIMISTIC?"
Any comments from anyone?
How does it feel to have "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone"?
Ozymandias | 09.05.08 - 10:12 am | #
You need to be careful when you talk about businesses. I am in trucking and frankly we are not doing to bad...My friends with truck and auto shops are frankly buried in work and screaming to find QUALIFIED employees.
I am going to be frank...nobody wants to turn wrenches any more(good for me).
Heck,we lifted our hiring freeze...
Chris
Bell Curve writes:
How does it feel to have "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone"?
The rest of my body was subprime anyway!
By the way, the claim was made earlier that the 84k drop in jobs was substantially different from the median estimate of a 75k drop. For the uninitiated, a drop of 84k jobs is not, repeat not, a significantly bigger drop than the median forecast of -75k. A 9k forecasting miss is, in this series, no miss at all. The January and February reports, for which the median forecast was off by closer to 80k per month - those were substantial misses.
Hey, where is DC1000? He said he wanted numbers to prove that fewer people were working.
How ya like them apples, Dizzy?
Don't say we didn't warn you.
Unemployment rate chart look like it's forming a top ?
Cliff climbing.
Dallas has had a great economy for those who can get the work. House prices didn't get all crazy and many people here who do lose their job, can find another one. some might be underemployed, but still employed. the people who aren't getting the benefits are mostly lower class, inner city and not white.
no income tax tricks many into thinking we have low taxes. the sales tax here is pretty high. they have to dip into sales tax to pay for schools because the lotto just ain't cutting it.
i think many people here have a disconnect between them and the rest of the metroplex. many drive out to the suburbs to their mcmansion and don't actually live in dallas. some of the lowest tax rates are out in places like "White Settlement".
Bear writes:
Dallas has had a great economy for those who can get the work...
Energy boom, lagging economy, etc. Try again.
"Why does the same concept not apply to the broader economy?"
Politicians
I wonder if the birth/death model is including in the "birth" numbers those folks who are unemployed and selling their garage junk on ebay, (their new business start up).
ew link is up
OK, the boob tube was on Beverly Hills 90210 at my house last night. I was too lazy to get up and do something productive so I watched. Very little face time was given to the poor girl struggling because her mom was behind on the mortgage. Most face time was given to the kids with the Ferrari's, Porsche's and the Bentley's. Private jets to whisk the new gal off to San Fran for dinner, shit like that. Life is great!
American dribble.
California dreaming baby, California dreaming.
F$$ck me.
Economy aside, living in Dallas is like living in an oven.
I know, I'm from there.
Here's a Dean Baker's <a href="http://www.cepr.net/index.php/data-bytes/jobs-bytes/unemployment-jumps-to-6.1-percent,-women-hit-hardest/>Jobs byte wrap-up of the NFP.
When was the last time a president presided over two recessions during his term in office?
One Salient Oversight
Nixon, in '70 and '74.
Canuckcurrentlygrowingcanabis, do you know the way to San Jose?
When the real job numbers came out for Q4 2007, the net job gains were 317k
. The monthly survey over the same time frame reported gains of 859k 
.
The monthly numbers aren't even close! For real time data it seems we should only care about the unemployment claims numbers, no?
Cobradriver,
I'm in same business.
It aint happening, my friend.
If you've lifted the hiring freeze, it's because you're paying FLAT-RATE (aka COMMISSION ONLY) and your techs don't get paid when there is no work.
They stand around their toolboxes and wait for someone to pull up... there's no payroll overhead when there's no work.
Run an hourly or salary shop with mechanics getting paid to clean up or stand around... You'll slap your "hiring freeze" back on so fast your head will spin...
San Jose? Isn't that like way down in Mexico somewhere?
And all those stars, that never were, are parking cars and pumping gas ....
After the chicanery of the elections is over, it should be over 8%, no doubt.
nobody wants to turn wrenches any more(good for me).
Heck,we lifted our hiring freeze...
Chris
Cobradriver | 09.05.08 - 10:18 am | #
I like turning wrenches. It's a nice break from my day (geek) job. That said, I don't know if I could replace my current salary turning wrenches.
-Jaso
It's not the monetary base that's shrinking; it's credit that's contracting.
Wow, someone here gets it. The effects you see have nothing to do with the monetary base. It's credit that's collapsing...and that, as many of us have said all along, is DEFLATIONARY. Welcome to deflation kids. It's here for a while to come.
And, btw, I've said that the unemployment rate will be lucky to crest above 7% and I still stand by that. My personal prediction is somewhere around 6.7%. The real story here is exports. For all of you screaming that the Fed will cut rates forget it. He needs the dollar to appreciate enough to affect the price of oil, but not so much to kill off the exports which is keeping us alive at this point. China is going to be a real mess. So watch what is happening there with the central bank. No one is going to be buying much of what China produces for a while...and that's going to have an incredible affect.
And while I'm on a roll...Trichet is a moron. The ECB is going to single-handedly cause the Eurozone to fall into a recession that's going to make ours look mild. He's fighting the wrong battle right now, and should be cutting like hell to stave off what is about to happen. But, then again, if they lowered they'd be admitting that their call was seriously wrong, so they have to stand pat for a while longer. They are human and won't admit to error.
His problem is DEFLATION and not INFLATION. It's going to hit the Eurozone with as much vengeance as it hit us. In Spain, maybe more.
China is going to be a real mess.
Someone here was talking about manufacturing overcapacity a few weeks ago and mentioned that China was going to get hammered badly. When that happens, look for our export biz to pop.
When was the last time a president presided over two recessions during his term in office?
One Salient Oversight | Homepage | 09.05.08 - 10:14 am | #
Nixon
By the way i do agree with CR that unemployment will prob not top 8%. There has been a structural change in the economy, mostly ude to demographics where it takes very little in the way of job growth to keep the unemployment rate low. Just look at the graph CR put up. Back in the 80's employment could growth consistantly at 3%+ and still have higher unemployment than we have today. The reason baby boomers enerting the labor force and the entry of women into the labor force. The first factor is now starting to go into reverse (will accelerate in coming years) and the second has reached saturation. Keep an eye on the employment to population ratio, we will probably see a series of lower peaks and valleys in it over the next few decades, even with lower unemployment rates. Simply a smaller % of the population in the workforce.
Bell Curve,
The over-optimism of Texans over the decades immediately leads me to discount any and all of their observations. Think of the insurance debacles of the 70s and the S&L bust during the 80s & 90s. And of course our fine president. Trust their judgement at your peril.
Clyde, don't forget LBJ's optimism over Vietnam...
The B/D adjustments actually ADDED jobs to the total in construction and fianance...WTF?!! They manipulate the numbers with this B/D caculation, but how stupid do they think we are? Construction and fianance added jobs, and the tooth fairy brought me a pony last nite, boy was my pillow lumpy this morning!
Be sure and vote republican, so these same kooks at Labor can keep cooking the books. Did you notice who was the FIRST to greet McCain on the rope line after his speech? Elaine Cho, Bush's Sect. of Labor, thats who.
she's the Queen bee at Labor, and she has her hand in all the book cooking going on!
Ozymandias: Tell your friend in Dallas to compare the Dallas ecomonmy of 1982 to the Dallas economy of 1987.
Sure things are great in Dallas now. Oil is booming. Dallas/Houston have different economic cycles. Tell your friend to save some of the fruits of his great, local economy.
Ipodius: I think ECB will start to cut soon, especially if they follow through on their threat to greatly reduce the amount of crap loans/exchanges they're giving to local banks.
"I see a Head & Shoulder of a Vietnamese mouse pattern for the US economy. It is headed down the toilet."
LOL! You are the best Jas! BTW, you've been right about everything from day one and you still are. Slowly, other folks are coming around to your way of thinking.
The problem has been that GD2 is taking a long time to build up steam, so it's hard to see it for what it is - a great and historic credit bust. CR (or somebody on the blog) said the other day that this won't be a bust witnessing large-scale layoffs like the type we had in the past. It will be more like water-torture, one small drip at a time, that lasts for years and years, slowly eroding the economy away.
Also, people keep looking for a 1929-style stock crash or other similar event to ring the bell that GD2 is here. This may or may not happen, although certainly the stock market will head lower from today's lofty levels.
One thing I have to quibble about is you often refer to the criminal gang running things in the US, but this is nothing new. This same group of thugs have been around a LONG time, and have controlled the banking system in this country since at least the time of Alexander Hamilton and the great Continentals looting operation circa 1790:
Winter (Economic and Market) Watch » A Modern Day Alexander Hamilton
What would the unemployment rate be if we were using the older methods of computing unemployment (apples to apples comparison with say, how things were computed during the great depression)?
Anyone have any pointers?
I don't know how the unemployed and underemployed are going to afford their new Texas electric bills. I received a letter from my provider, First Choice Power, with notice that my 'ocked in' 11.5 cent kwh rate would increase to 17.9 kwh when my 1 yr contract expires. Next August my $300 bill will be more like $450 if I'm lucky. Of course I'll be shopping rates but doutful I'll find a much lower rate thanks to deregulation. I have the air off and the windows open and today's high is 92. What is my rate going to be in 10 years?
It's scary when none of the fed governers predicted unemployment to go so high. What else is in store I ask?
Andy,
We can hope for a substantially new Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Surefire growth industry:
Law enforcement.
Minimum age: 21 (lower in some agencies)
Education: H.S. diploma or G.E.D.
Starting pay: $50k+ in So CA.
Double-plus: the safest cities pay the best. You make more money and get shot at less often.
Benefits: out the wazoo
Job security: none better
Retire: At age 50 with 90% of your salary
Job openings: Everywhere, all the time.
Employment is a lagging indicator. Much of the new numbers are from people laid off 12 months ago with severance.
So the birth/death model created 120k jobs. What about the unwed teenage birth model?
"His problem is DEFLATION and not INFLATION. It's going to hit the Eurozone with as much vengeance as it hit us. In Spain, maybe more."
Ipodious you positively reak of american exceptionalism.
Trichet is doing exactly what is needed. Because europeans actually pay their workers a LIVING wage (SHOCK, HORROR!) their economic system is prone to wage inflation spirals. Europe also has a real economy that is not on based on derivatives, leveraged credit, and exponential growth.
When the dollar takes its next brutal leg down the Euro likely be the world's reserve currency.
China is going to be a smoldering ruin of overcapacity, yet the USA is going to stay afloat with exports?
Well, gee, that makes complete sense...I don't know what I was worried about.
o doubt the deflation argument is winning and at work viciously in the mktplace right now. massive deleveraging/massice de-risking is the only function in today's fnncl mkts. fine...but to think that this recent dollar strength (which comes from the delveraging out there) can last vs tangible goods/cmmdties is just wrong...why? reason 1. the dollar is fiat and has no backing. hence, its overcreation since 1971..in the 1930's the dollar was tied to a gold standard of $20.67 an ounce and then 1935- $35.00 an ounce...the deflation of the 1930's was all about the scarcity of the usdollar. there wasnt enough around and they couldnt make any or bail-out any big banks because they had to dig those needed dollars out of the ground. reason 2. world's population growth from 900ad to 1880 ad was like 600mm to 850mm...very steady small growth...from 1880 to today, its up above 6.7 bln people..these 6.7 bln people do not need fnncl assets or paper money to survive and continue. they need wheat, corn, oil, gas, copper, timber, aluminum, etc...this is what is going on here...a major shift out of fnncl assets into tangible goods...
"China is going to be a smoldering ruin of overcapacity, yet the USA is going to stay afloat with exports?
Well, gee, that makes complete sense...I don't know what I was worried about."
Indeed, it is a nonsense statement. And who are we going to export to? Not that it matters since we can't afford our own products anymore, and jobs won't be returning here until we "competitive" with 3rd world labor - living in mud huts and eating 1 meal a day.
Surefire growth industry:
Law enforcement.
Minimum age: 21 (lower in some agencies)
Education: H.S. diploma or G.E.D.
Starting pay: $50k+ in So CA.
Double-plus: the safest cities pay the best. You make more money and get shot at less often.
Benefits: out the wazoo
Job security: none better
Retire: At age 50 with 90% of your salary
Job openings: Everywhere, all the time.
-Feckless Ness
Hmmm. Well, it looks like a lot of the soldiers returning from Iraq and Afghanistan in the coming years will have a career just waiting for them. That is something I've been wondering about lately.
I don't know how the unemployed and underemployed are going to afford their new Texas electric bills. I received a letter from my provider, First Choice Power, with notice that my 'ocked in' 11.5 cent kwh rate would increase to 17.9 kwh when my 1 yr contract expires. Next August my $300 bill will be more like $450 if I'm lucky. Of course I'll be shopping rates but doutful I'll find a much lower rate thanks to deregulation. I have the air off and the windows open and today's high is 92. What is my rate going to be in 10 years?
-FFDIC
This study is really long, but I thought that it illustrates how "choice" gets over valued by people. When I hear the choice mantra I immediately become suspicious.
Study: "The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft"
http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~cadem/bio/massey%20&%20thaler%20-%20loser's%20curse.pdf
Oops! That link is a dud. Try this one:
http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~webfac/malmendier/e218_sp06/Thaler.pdf
China going down - really?
Well, we do seem to be discounting the fact that China is NOT a democracy or a capitalist country and run instead by people who will do anything they can to keep thier growth rates just high enough to stave off mass discontent. Hence, they will start spending their huge surplus on themselves as opposed to financing the debt of the USA or Mr&Mrs OrangeCountyHummerDrivinIdiots. Now this might very well keep those precious US exports up which CR has noted is already a main component to that potential 8% being hit or not.
I think house prices are going to continue down and as stated, it's not a monetary issue, rather a confidence issue expressed through high mortgages to those who can get them (it makes me think of the Golden Tickets in the Willy Wonka stories they seem to be so rare...).
For the above reasons I think Jas is wrong about a commodities bust. Whilst there will/is a dip it will come back up, the rest of the developing world will not stop simply because the US has, they will still buy and run their surpluses down. Whereas the US will see deflation, they will see continued, though moderate to occasionally high inflation.
I don't think there is a complete picture yet, there's still so many 'ifs' but for the US it's not looking good.
As for getting paid $330K for looking at x-rays, I gues broken bones is good business!
Cheers
BAO
PS - if you strongly disagree with me then please tell me WHY you have a different opinion. It's always good to read worked out opinions.
What is my rate going to be in 10 years?
FFDIC | 09.05.08 - 1:32 pm | #
What did Morgan say? Ah, yes: "If you have to ask, you can't afford it."