"Most of the problems are in just a few states (California and Florida top the list)."
CR, I don't think most of the problems are in just a few states. Could you substantiate that(?), because I don't live in one of those states and it is a huge problem here. I'm sure the same can be said for 95% of the other states (or more.)
[O]nly eight states -- Nevada, Florida, California, Arizona, Michigan, Rhode Island, Indiana and Ohio -- had rates of foreclosure starts that were above the national average, he said in a telephone interview. That "is an indicator that this is not equally distributed across the country," [Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist] said.
"Elvis writes:
"Most of the problems are in just a few states (California and Florida top the list)."
CR, I don't think most of the problems are in just a few states. Could you substantiate that(?), because I don't live in one of those states and it is a huge problem here. I'm sure the same can be said for 95% of the other states (or more.)"
Elvis - I think hes restating this quote from the article:
"In fact, only eight states -- Nevada, Florida, California, Arizona, Michigan, Rhode Island, Indiana and Ohio -- had rates of foreclosure starts that were above the national average, he said in a telephone interview. That "is an indicator that this is not equally distributed across the country," he said."
"Problem" is a poor choice of words - foreclosures are problematic everywhere. That said, its striking to me that only 8 states make up the top half of the average (25 would suggest even distribution). So it looks like there are a few states where they are "major problems" and the vast majority where they are just "problems"
Sorry to harp on this, but saying 8 states were "above the national average" means nothing if the national average is already historically high. They might be worse off, but nationally things are really bad. Am I the only one who sees this logical flaw?
OT I got a call from a graduate of "Nouveau Riche University" who is looking for a buyers agent to represent a group of investors in REO's here in NorCal.We will be hang lunch next week to discuss the possibilities...
Elvis, most of the increase in delinquencies and foreclosures are in a few states. Of course there are problems everywhere. I've pounded on this so many times - I thought this was clear - I guess I didn't word my post very well.
You are right. CR is wrong. Look at the populated of the 8 states. It is probably about 50% of the country. Which means 505 is above the average which means nothing. CRs original comment is flawed.
Every once in a while I take a second and think about how far this has come. From 2002 to 05 the hysteria around real estate was unreal. "It always goes up*"
I don't think many could have possibly predicted we'd end up here...
ades-
nobody wanted to hear those predictions back in 04-05...Took heat everytime I talked to my OC Real estate friends...Chicken little was my name....
Can we get a graph of houses in foreclosure v. electoral votes? Kidding about that, population would do.
For serious-- there is a correlation of sorts, but populous states like NY, and CMSAs like greater NY and DC do not show the high incidences. That's why most of the graphs are per/house or per 1000 etc.
It would be interesting to plot x/y foreclosures v. population of states or areas, and that would highlight the degree to which the problem is MORE of a problem in the various states/locations.
I think many here consider the trend (down) to be more important than the exact data for last month. Where it's going is more important than where it is.
I do not have a portion of the skills to produce a regression of foreclosures against number of houses, by state, let alone county. I just know that I'd be interested in looking at such a graph.
I am going to take this as good news. 'till now there has been all this chatter about the bubble being fed buy speculators and flippers. Some rumoured numbers was that 20% of the bubble was because of these type of folks. With a del rate of only 6.41% I dont see this being the case.
Its a case of bad lending, cheap money and zealous fee generating finance folks. So if your a bank with a big book of junk, well, sucks to be you.
[O]nly eight states -- Nevada, Florida, California, Arizona, Michigan, Rhode Island, Indiana and Ohio -- had rates of foreclosure starts that were above the national average, he said in a telephone interview. That "is an indicator that this is not equally distributed across the country," [Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist] said.
Hmmmm. I see east coast, Midwest, Southeast, Southwest and far west in the list above. Seems like a national issue to me. And besides, since when counting states like Idaho, North Dakota and such (no ill will for those states)equal states like Florida and Cali in foreclosure numbers. Here, how about this comparison...The 8 foreclosure states equal 145 of the 538 electoral votes.
Calif must be one the leaders in size of loan in foreclosure and getting larger every month. I scan NOD and NOT nows and the average has to be above 500K here in Sonoma county. Also notice a large number of million dollar + house's adding to the pile now that number could will grow. So its not just numbers of foreclosures but the dollar value attached to that foreclosure coming out of Northern Calif compared to the fly over states.
FDIC's Hurricane Sheila to the Florida Bankers Association, Sarasota, FL
September 4, 2008
"I'd like to start with an overview of the industry's performance, and then talk about emerging liquidity problems that we're seeing across the industry, and the need for a rainy day backup plan to raise cash quickly." FDIC: Error 404 - Page Not Found
ron,When people from out of the area see mention of a $500k house they probably think it is something nice.In the Bay Area that would have bought you a 50 year old 2/2 fixer upper in Boyes Hot spring,or a sears "Jack and Jill" in Oaklands 'Hood.I am hearing from more people is sebastopol that they "have to sell" or are "thinking about walking away" daily.I wonder when folks will start hanging themselves from the apple trees in despair ( I do expect a few).
AllenM, kinda like Bill Gross saying PIMCO loaned money to banks and now the bonds are below par? And now asking for a Resolution Trust Corp for home owners to bail them out and save his huge exposure to Fannie/Freddie? But he is one of the smartest guys in the room.
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CBBO 4.10, -0.03, -0.7%) , the holding company for Columbia River Bank, said Friday that it's shutting its mortgage banking unit. "Columbia's decision to no longer operate an in-house mortgage lending service was necessary because of the uncertainty in the mortgage markets and the risk associated with the industry," said CEO Roger Christensen. The move will lead to around 39 job losses.
Dallas Morning News (front page today)
Pickups' value crashing
"Equipped with typical features like the 4.7-liter V-8, automatic transmission and two-wheel drive, a Ram in average shape with 15,000 miles on it – priced at around $30,000 when new – had a trade-in value last week between $8,970 (Kelley Blue Book) and $14,862 (Edmunds.com). It's the same story for a 2007 Ford F-150 XLT SuperCrew that also sold new for around $30,000. It now has a trade-in value of between $11,935 (Kelley Blue Book) and $14,575 (Edmunds.com)." Pickups' value crashing |
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By the way, lest we forget, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan have big foreclure problems not mostly because of a housing boom, but because lousy lending practices have combined with lousy local economies. There is more than one way to skin a homeowner.
"CR, I don't think most of the problems are in just a few states. Could you substantiate that(?), because I don't live in one of those states and it is a huge problem here. I'm sure the same can be said for 95% of the other states (or more.)"
Just because some states haven't blown up yet doesn't mean the problem isn't huge. Maryland is an example of this: housing is grossly unaffordable in this state, and nearly everyone I know who bought recently bought something they cannot afford with a toxic loan. The state is littered with bad loans, house flippers, people with day jobs "investing" in housing, etc. About the only thing we didn't get was large numbers of out-of-state people investing here in places sight-unseen. No, our bursting Bubble is locally grown and will have the locals washed out into the Bay as the madness comes to an end and they actually have to pay for their absurdly overpriced house or give back the keys.
FT.com
National City offers cash to cut equity lines
“We are giving customers an opportunity to close their lines without incurring termination fees and then we give them a reward to thank them for their business,” said National City."
(Funny, Sheila didn't mention this.) FT.com / Mergermarket - National City offers cash to cut equity lines
cd,I lived on apple hill for a while in the '80's nice area.But the buildup in the sac area is unbelivable to anyone who has not seen it.I have,and still had trouble believing my eyes.
Sign of the Times: 'FDIC Insured'
"In a television advertisement for some sort of savings account at GMAC Bank, viewers hear that they can "earn more, while keeping your money safe and secure." Then, over a screen that flashes "FDIC INSURED" in big block letters, we hear this tagline: "GMAC Bank...smart, simple, safe."
When the safety and federal insurance of deposit accounts become leading features of expensive ad campaigns, you know we're in a strange place in the financial system." Sign of the Times: 'FDIC Insured' -- Seeking Alpha
From <a href=http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/02/alaska-party-official-says-palin-was-not-a-member/">The New York Times:
"The chairwoman of an Alaskan political party that advocates a vote on the stateÂ’s secession from the union said Tuesday that she had been mistaken when she said Gov. Sarah Palin was a member of the group."
That'd be fine. The lower 49 would come out ahead. Alaska get $2.60 from the feds for every $1.00 they send in. The highest per capita rate of getting propped up by national tax payers. This is on top of Alaska getting to keep the highest % of lease fees on resource extraction than any other state.
Fiercely self-sufficient apparently == sucking on the government teat as hard as possible.
The real question that I would like to see answered is "When will banks start being honest about their balance sheets?"
I would like to see how they define "foreclosure process". I have a feeling that the banks are grossly delaying the foreclosure process because they can't afford it.
The credit union failures are picking up steam as well. Unfortunately, the NCUA is more interested in promoting its chairman than publicizing industry problems.
I still know people who think they can "make money" by owning a house...
I kid you not....
I plan to make money owning. In two years when my house is paid off, I will make money by not having to pay any rent to anyone, bank or landlord. Not nearly as exciting as flipping, I'll admit.
Not to be back on topic but...I think the point of the article is that foreclosures are tending to be concentrated in certain areas, and the AMOUNT of the losses will also be concentrated in those areas. Frankly, a higher than average foreclosure rate isn't, in itself, problematic for financial institutions. It's the dollar amount of the loss and the subsequent value of the asset that is the problem. Just talking about "foreclosures" isn't the point. The act means nothing, it's the loss.
These losses are going to be concentrated in the states named. I don't know where you live, but...you know...prices haven't really cratered here and I keep saying that. They're probably not going to much more either in certain areas. The problem is VERY VERY localized, and is worse the further from the metro Boston area you go.
If you had given me a map in 2000 and asked me to color in areas where a housing bust would have the highest effect, I bet i would have picked exactly the localized areas that are now seeing the issues. Why no one did this is beyond me. But I guess the money was too hot and too good. Again I'll say it: we've been on the downside of the slope since 2005 and the local economy isn't that bad. Perhaps it will be where you are, but then you have other fundamental issues besides housing.
rate cut on Sunday evening/Monday morning.......one repo. today for "only" $2B. They are up to something that's for sure.....they (fed) are not doing these repo's with the same vigor as they were before. During the BSC "crisis" the same thing happened, drop-off in repo's and then the creation of yet another alphabet soup auction.
Speculation on my part however there is something brewing.
I live in the NYC metro area. Prices are down ~ 15%. Not as bad as FL or CA, but still bad. More telling are the the inventory and sales numbers. Inventory is sky high and sales are few and far between.
Going forward, I expect a slowing economy and a huge multi-year downsizing of the NYC financial services industry to continue to force prices lower. Also, foreclosures in the areas I follow are rising rapidly, although most are on lower cost homes.
One more point, many of the recent sales are at 15% off prices after have major renovation work performed. I can't tell you how many people I know that dumped 100K into a new kitchen & master bath. Most of that money is lost.
I think Boston will suffer the same fate.
One more point, many of the recent sales are at 15% off prices after have major renovation work performed.
Angry, I think they are down slightly more than that from peak here...but not in the city, and certainly not in the condo market. In the last bust, that was the market that really tanked. Now it seems that the SFH market is the one to suffer. But the total percentage is misleading. It is down that much in a lot of places, not no where near that in others. it is very localized. And yes, there is a lot of inventory. But many people are just keeping them on the market and seeing what happens.
It is amazing to me the number of people that think they will get what they want if they renovate now. Not happening. It is far better to just lower your price and sell if that's what you need to do and let the new owners renovate. It will buy you NOTHING. As a point of reference a condo in a vacation market I have a place in sold recently. The original asking price was 629. The selling price was 525. But that isn't happening in the metro area.
Good call on the bounce Popeye -- when it happened this morning, I remembered "hey, didn't someone call it yesterday", but couldn't remember who (nor did I want to go looking).
How does property insurance work for bank-owned properties? I assume that the bank holds a policy providing blanket coverage at market value for some period of time as long as detail is provided to the insurer within some period of time. I am thinking particularly of how insurers might be affected by Hurricane Ike, which if it follows its current track will damage many foreclosed properties. My guess is that these properties are less likely to be repaired if bank owned than if owner occupied. Such a storm would undoubtedly cause other damaged properties to be abandoned by their owners who might be underwater in the literal sense. Can anyone provide more information on the details of this coverage? Thanks!
Blackstone Group LP and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co KKR.UL are each looking to buy parts of Lehman's real estate and asset management units, sources familiar with the situation said on Friday.
Another day another rumor from a person familiar with the situation who doesn't want to be named. Kind of funny how the SEC looks the other way if it makes the market go up. How many has that been this week for this one stock alone for Christ sakes. Banana republico.
The only reason that you see a large drop in FC starts in MD and MA is that they have extended the required demand (Breech Letter), Acceleration Letter from the standard 30 day timeline to in MA it is now 90 days so the customer gets an additional 60 days before a servicer can start foreclosure and in MD the demand timeline has been extended to 90 days also. In the past a standard default timeline would be that a servicer would demand 45 days past due and the they could start foreclosure at 75 days past due or so. Because of the changes in the these two states servicers can't start foreclosure on a property until the customer is at least 135 days past due or roughly 6 months past due. Also when both of the law changes came out in the late spring, the two states provided very little direction to servicers on the required notice that will need to be sent which delayed most servicers in sending demand letters in these states.
You would think that the MBA would know these issues, but they have never been very involved in understanding default servicers so the oversight isn't surprising. They are just a orgination organization and only give lip service to servicers issues.
Greenspan does bubbles & booms. Wife does balloons & reports RNC knows how to give a party!
Andrea (Boom Boom) Mitchell Attacked By RNC Balloons (Video) Andrea Mitchell Attacked By RNC Balloons (VIDEO)
Where were you PPT people the other day when the market swung from an over 100pt rally into negative territory? Do you only come out when the reverse happens? perhaps someday soon, you'll join the goldbugs and the fiat nutcases...oh and sebastian who seems to be really quiet lately....
Pictures of Sarah Palin interest me not. However, I am interested in why people scream PPT only when the market moves in a positive fashion and not negative.
Also any money that is made in a day is taken away in a day. You may frame that quote for future reference. It's the sentiment that has us in the current situation.
Tom Stone writes:
.I am hearing from more people is sebastopol that they "have to sell" or are "thinking about walking away" daily.
Sebastopol and Sonoma (city) are still bubble markets, lots of denial. Notice more and more over one million foreclosure's on the NOT list plus the NOD has plenty.
Santa Rosa investor's are going freaking crazy buying and renting out the lower end houses, wonder when that boat will be full with either a overloaded rental market or exhausted
buyer pool.
The fed & treasury have stated they want orderly markets. We have a working group on financial markets. The treasury has intervened in dollar sell-offs in prior instances. I think it is entirely possible that the fed & treasury exert pressure on the markets.
I don't believe they have any long term or lsting effects, but targeted buying in the face of a rapidly falling market - why not?
and those nutjobs who think real estate really is different where they live...
energycon, I'm stating how real estate is actually behaving where I live. you can argue about that all you want, but that's the way it is. I don't expect it to behave differently, actually, anywhere.
Its been a very good year. And not only because my wife looks better than Sarah and we have no kids to distract from my day job.
Take my money, friendo, it is on the table. Go long.
If you don't think there are a bunch of hedgies goosing the market to try to save their ass, please don't look into that fact. I prefer to do this the easy way.
They are called fundamentals. I hope you never meet them.
bearly writes:
"The 8 States above the national average represent 30.3% of the population and roughly 35% of the housing stock."
And how about fraction of the outstanding mortgage debt?
San Diego, which three years ago had one of the most overvalued housing markets in the country, is now the most undervalued in California, the economic and financial analysis company Global Insight reported yesterday.
I dont know if this is funny, sad, criminal, negligent, or just a sick joke....
Drawing on data from National City Corp. in Cleveland, Global Insight said San Diego single-family resale housing, which had a median price of $349,300 in the second quarter, was 17.2 percent undervalued, based on household income and prices. In the second quarter of 2005, single-family housing, then with a median price of $505,900, was 39.1 percent overvalued.
I think its something like less that 10% of SD's population can afford the average house....
ipodius writes:
Pictures of Sarah Palin interest me not. However, I am interested in why people scream PPT only when the market moves in a positive fashion and not negative.
I don't buy the PPT theory either, but if economic conditions are such that the market should drop (and I think you'd agree the stock market is still overvalued), why would anyone think a fall would be caused by the PPT? If anything, the fall would be caused by the PPT allowing market forces to resume.
Personally, I think we are witnessing the onset of panic, and traders are reacting as such resulting in the volatility we're seeing. But I'm just a peon. What do I know?
ipodius writes:
Pictures of Sarah Palin interest me not. However, I am interested in why people scream PPT only when the market moves in a positive fashion and not negative.
I'm no expert but it might have something to do with the spontaneous cheer that went up on the trading floor an hour ago when the Dow recovered from a 150 point loss.
Get back to me when a cheer goes up as the Dow pulls back to even after a 150 point bounce.
It's more than sentiment. We have very real and deep rooted problems -
Yes we do. And that was caused by the "hey I'm making money today...I know these loans/financial instruments/insert fianancial innovation here are going to blow sky high but what do I care? I'm making money TODAY".
look no further than any ass who says this to understand where the problem is.
I didn't argue anything, I just said that only nutjobs think real estate is different where they live - you self selected in this case - real estate is everywhere local and everywhere the same...but nutjobs are always different!
I think you folks should consider lightening up on the PPT debate. It's just a conspiracy theory that fills in when there's no logical explanation for market moves. There's also a possibility that there is some truth to it, but there's never going to be any proof. So, just ease up and have some fun with it as a possibility.
mock I don't think the fundamentals called for the market to be where it was and I said that. If there were a PPT I don't think we'd be flirting with under 11k as we are now on the DOW. I'd expect a resistance point here and it doesn't surprise me in the slightest that technical trading would stop that from happening, or at least slow it down. No PPT needed.
You know, usually the simplest explanation is the best. The fundamentals and forward earnings do not warrant the market being where it is. Eventually, the market will realize and reflect that...when the bulls are led to the slaughterhouse. Again, no PPT needed.
i'm dont adhere to the extreme PPT theory that "its all fixed"
but i do believe that the PPT endeavors to get outta the way on the upside, bubble-icious or not...
and then the PPT, i surmise, tries to dampen and slow, pervasive drops and down turns in the market.
an understanding of what, if any effect, the PPT could have is important because attempts to dampen long term fundamental, secular market moves, results in the winding up of an economic spring...
and in the end i suspect the damage, as a result, is chronic.
If you had given me a map in 2000 and asked me to color in areas where a housing bust would have the highest effect, I bet i would have picked exactly the localized areas that are now seeing the issues. Why no one did this is beyond me. But I guess the money was too hot and too good. Again I'll say it: we've been on the downside of the slope since 2005 and the local economy isn't that bad. Perhaps it will be where you are, but then you have other fundamental issues besides housing."
Couldnt have said it better myself. Circa 2005, I believed the whole US was in a pickle so I waited with anticipation for my area to get down to 2002 pricing or before.
Fast forward to Sept 2008, my area is down 5-10% from peak, and inventory is WAAAAYYYY down, YOY. In fact it will soon fall below 2007, 2006 and 2005 levels - sales are up YOY - ALT A loans are being refinanced left and right - and the unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the nation.
Im now sitting here saying WHAT THE F!!!!! Wheres my god danm bubble??? CA has 2002 prices, why does late 2004 pricing look to be my best day???
Ill happily take my 5-10% off, but god damn. If I could find that jackass who was telling me circa 2002 that my area was a bubble, I would love beat him with a crowbar til he gave me the 200+ K appreciation I missed out on!!!
As I have attempted to make clear to a number of folks on Capitol Hill, although lenders were saying that they were making the ARM's (including the option ARM's) available to enable buyers to afford the higher prices, it was the availability of those toxic mortgages which enabled prices to reach those absurb heights.
burbed, that is the truth. there are always people waiting to buy, and especially now. 15% off seems like a great deal now, and it is people's natural inclination to look at the prices off the high, not prices on the balance. So a lot of places now look pretty good. And people are also looking to scoop up foreclosures and make it a real value win.
We're in a slow sideways movement here, with a bias to the downside. But that bias is probably not much more down. I expect that when the mortgage market loosens a bit, you'll see a screeching stop to declines in areas like here. You won't see appreciation, but you'll see stability.
No mock, the real question is, given forward earnings and fundamentals, where does the market belong?
Note to self: Maybe my party should focus next time on economy instead of biography...
Note to you. Make sure the sell out running your party doesn't throw a pity party for speculators. It is low hanging fruit for the low hanging liberals .
<
blockquote>
I fight for Americans. I fight for you. I fight for Bill and Sue Nebe from Farmington Hills, Michigan, who lost their real estate investments in the bad housing market.
ipodius writes:
...the real question is, given forward earnings and fundamentals, where does the market belong?
Minor grammar correction : given forward earnings Guess based upon lord knows what and fundamentals predicated on pre-credit crisis condition, where does the market belong?
....and of course there's an obvious and objective answer to that.
Given FFDIC's indication last week, another Georgia bank wouldn't be surprising ... but I'll go with my favourite whipping bank: VNBC (whose been fairly steady at ~ seventy cents last couple of weeks).
I'm sorry, but the notion that the market has an objective value that can logically be derived from nothing more than "forward earnings" {of all things} and fundamental analysis is very difficult to swallow.
Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- A U.S. trust fund that finances highway construction needs $8 billion from Congress by the end of next week to cover a shortfall as a drop in driving shrinks fuel-tax receipts, Transportation Secretary Mary Peters said.
The federal government will have no money in the fund by month's end, and may need to cut payments to states starting in October should Congress fail to act, Peters told reporters today on a conference call.
Haven't time to read the whole thread, but the Ike forecast keeps moving south, and is now South of Miami, heading towards the Keys. Still too far out to really say.
Hitting here hard would merely mean that a lot of stuff would get destroyed and reduce inventory, and then insurance would go up so high that few could afford to live here. Or, no insurance at any price would be available. Or, Citizens, the Fla company of last resort, would have to draw severely on the State of Florida's revenue. And the State is really really short, tho not as bad as California, and stuff really is being cut, in spite of the screams of the cuttees.
After which Ike would roll into the Gulf of Mexico...or not...but reading the forecast discussion they keep moving closer to the models on the southern track (the ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL models).
...I will make money by not having to pay any rent to anyone, bank or landlord...
I think you forgot about property tax. If you find out how to avoid that let us know.
With respect to the San Diego "undervaluation", consider the source. National City was declared by Dick Bove 6 months ago in a Bloomberg interview as having the worst management in the banking industry. I don't have a high confidence level that the economist data massagers are more competent than their masters. In fact, DeKayser, their chief economist, has been dead wrong for 2 years with every call.
I think you forgot about property tax. If you find out how to avoid that let us know.
don't pay property taxes, allow lien to develop, create llc to buy liens, be high bidder on your own prop.
borrow money to create llc.
dont' force paymnent on yourself by llc.
"Darkness writes: ...Alaska get $2.60 from the feds for every $1.00 they send in. The highest per capita rate of getting propped up by national tax payers. This is on top of Alaska getting to keep the highest % of lease fees on resource extraction than any other state.
Fiercely self-sufficient apparently == sucking on the government teat as hard as possible."
PPT, yep Greenspan talks about it in his book. So at least it did exist and I expect it still does. Congressional hearings failed to get a hold of the PPTs
minutes (conveniently they don't keep any minutes or other such things).
I loaned my copy of Greenspan's book to a small town banker friend of mine. He is sweating bullets, a very nervous man......so I can't look up the quote from Greenspan's book.
Of course, MA and MD not so bad because of the now-lifted moratorium on foreclosures.
Let the games begin!
It's gonna get worse. As will the credit crunch.
Ya want fries with that schadenfraude, friendo?
Eat my shorts.
"Most of the problems are in just a few states (California and Florida top the list)."
CR, I don't think most of the problems are in just a few states. Could you substantiate that(?), because I don't live in one of those states and it is a huge problem here. I'm sure the same can be said for 95% of the other states (or more.)
Sandbags!! Get me some sandbags!! Christ, who knew a bunch of hedgies would be the wrong choice when you were building an army?
Taiwan to buy Nevada.
gather ye rosebuds while ye may
and take those profits along the way
nobody likes to get Reg T'd
but don't fall in love with Mr. Greed
These are just the seeds of recovery being planted. Carry on!
And pmi isn't covering more of these losses because....?
safe_as_apartments wrote:
Of course, MA and MD not so bad because of the now-lifted moratorium on foreclosures.
There was a moratorium on foreclosures in MD? I live here and I wasn't aware of it. When was it lifted?
Elvis, sure, from the linked article:
[O]nly eight states -- Nevada, Florida, California, Arizona, Michigan, Rhode Island, Indiana and Ohio -- had rates of foreclosure starts that were above the national average, he said in a telephone interview. That "is an indicator that this is not equally distributed across the country," [Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist] said.
Best Wishes
"Elvis writes:
"Most of the problems are in just a few states (California and Florida top the list)."
CR, I don't think most of the problems are in just a few states. Could you substantiate that(?), because I don't live in one of those states and it is a huge problem here. I'm sure the same can be said for 95% of the other states (or more.)"
Elvis - I think hes restating this quote from the article:
"In fact, only eight states -- Nevada, Florida, California, Arizona, Michigan, Rhode Island, Indiana and Ohio -- had rates of foreclosure starts that were above the national average, he said in a telephone interview. That "is an indicator that this is not equally distributed across the country," he said."
"Problem" is a poor choice of words - foreclosures are problematic everywhere. That said, its striking to me that only 8 states make up the top half of the average (25 would suggest even distribution). So it looks like there are a few states where they are "major problems" and the vast majority where they are just "problems"
Looks like CR beat me to it.
Sarah Palin is smarter than you. She wanted to make Alaska its own country. Cut loose the bottom 49. Can you blame her?
Jas Pali
Good point Burbed. I hate it when they play word games. Yea the data is skewed (kurtosis?). But the whole damn thing is elevated....
..........
Sorry to harp on this, but saying 8 states were "above the national average" means nothing if the national average is already historically high. They might be worse off, but nationally things are really bad. Am I the only one who sees this logical flaw?
OT I got a call from a graduate of "Nouveau Riche University" who is looking for a buyers agent to represent a group of investors in REO's here in NorCal.We will be hang lunch next week to discuss the possibilities...
Sweet, Snark, just don't buy them lunch, because it might be the last time you see them.
Elvis, most of the increase in delinquencies and foreclosures are in a few states. Of course there are problems everywhere. I've pounded on this so many times - I thought this was clear - I guess I didn't word my post very well.
Best Wishes.
Elvis,
You are right. CR is wrong. Look at the populated of the 8 states. It is probably about 50% of the country. Which means 505 is above the average which means nothing. CRs original comment is flawed.
Maybe Hurricane Ike will take care of some Miami REO inventory
...(too harsh?)
Ok so its clear everyone understands it!
..........
Mark, yes, I've reworded my comment. It's amusing to me - since I've been pointing out relentlessly that the problems are everywhere.
The far more interesting information is in the details (that I don't have yet).
Best to all.
I don't know CR -- just what do you mean by "stand out" -- because in my state...
JUST KIDDING.
Every once in a while I take a second and think about how far this has come. From 2002 to 05 the hysteria around real estate was unreal. "It always goes up*"
I don't think many could have possibly predicted we'd end up here...
.........
CR,
When you say "A key question is subprime vs. Alt-A and Prime delinquencies...," don't you really mean "all day?"
ades-
nobody wanted to hear those predictions back in 04-05...Took heat everytime I talked to my OC Real estate friends...Chicken little was my name....
AAhhhemmm; I ordered some PPT with that?!!!
"I want my PPT"
............
Population based instances of foreclosures?
Can we get a graph of houses in foreclosure v. electoral votes? Kidding about that, population would do.
For serious-- there is a correlation of sorts, but populous states like NY, and CMSAs like greater NY and DC do not show the high incidences. That's why most of the graphs are per/house or per 1000 etc.
It would be interesting to plot x/y foreclosures v. population of states or areas, and that would highlight the degree to which the problem is MORE of a problem in the various states/locations.
I think many here consider the trend (down) to be more important than the exact data for last month. Where it's going is more important than where it is.
I do not have a portion of the skills to produce a regression of foreclosures against number of houses, by state, let alone county. I just know that I'd be interested in looking at such a graph.
(has such a thing been produced?)
Clinto
Speaking of upside down houses....
Photos: Germany's upside-down house | FP Passport
I am going to take this as good news. 'till now there has been all this chatter about the bubble being fed buy speculators and flippers. Some rumoured numbers was that 20% of the bubble was because of these type of folks. With a del rate of only 6.41% I dont see this being the case.
Its a case of bad lending, cheap money and zealous fee generating finance folks. So if your a bank with a big book of junk, well, sucks to be you.
O/T
b/t/w Goldman now has MER as a "sell", duh!
[O]nly eight states -- Nevada, Florida, California, Arizona, Michigan, Rhode Island, Indiana and Ohio -- had rates of foreclosure starts that were above the national average, he said in a telephone interview. That "is an indicator that this is not equally distributed across the country," [Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist] said.
Hmmmm. I see east coast, Midwest, Southeast, Southwest and far west in the list above. Seems like a national issue to me. And besides, since when counting states like Idaho, North Dakota and such (no ill will for those states)equal states like Florida and Cali in foreclosure numbers. Here, how about this comparison...The 8 foreclosure states equal 145 of the 538 electoral votes.
My blog will answer your questions about Miami (ie the price crash is and will continue to be insane)
Miami and South Florida Condo Bubble and Real Estate Crash Blog
Calif must be one the leaders in size of loan in foreclosure and getting larger every month. I scan NOD and NOT nows and the average has to be above 500K here in Sonoma county. Also notice a large number of million dollar + house's adding to the pile now that number could will grow. So its not just numbers of foreclosures but the dollar value attached to that foreclosure coming out of Northern Calif compared to the fly over states.
"A key question is subprime vs. Alt-A and Prime delinquencies - I don't have an answer yet."
We are all subprime now.
Do we finally get a BIG bank failure/shotgun marriage this evening ? I want my WaMu!!
The Coup de Grace for a fine week for the economy and equities.
PPT has arrived
don't be so sure...
11:45 will only slow it down...
FDIC's Hurricane Sheila to the Florida Bankers Association, Sarasota, FL
September 4, 2008
"I'd like to start with an overview of the industry's performance, and then talk about emerging liquidity problems that we're seeing across the industry, and the need for a rainy day backup plan to raise cash quickly."
FDIC: Error 404 - Page Not Found
barley-
That came out last night at 12:30am EST....burying it in the dead of night seems to be the mantra now.
Ciao
MS
Well, the first crop of knifecatchers is beginning to understand how screwed they are too.
This applies to Walls Street as well.
I wish I could come up with some stunning analysis, but the pain has to be dealt out.
Now hedge funds are being forced into liquidation with their primary brokers handling massive forced sales of equities and bonds.
Are there enough buyers to soak up this supply? No.
Santelli shouting about printing money is comical.
Of course that is the only solution to avoid depression.
Of course, printing an inflation rate on CNBC of 5.5% is a shock in and of itself.
Reality of losses putting spreads out. Gee, ya think!
Someday this war's gonna end...
This credit crunch sure is breaking a lot of records. Prolly lead to a mild recession.
Cheers,
I think they need to take a closer look at Texas foreclosures which have been high for several years...
love the PR on MER:
"korea kamco: In talks with MER to buy bad loan package"
TO even call it bad is just classic..
Someone needs a PR lesson....
Ciao
MS
FFDIC - Add Colorado to that list, record f/c's for several years in a row with little media attentio
ron,When people from out of the area see mention of a $500k house they probably think it is something nice.In the Bay Area that would have bought you a 50 year old 2/2 fixer upper in Boyes Hot spring,or a sears "Jack and Jill" in Oaklands 'Hood.I am hearing from more people is sebastopol that they "have to sell" or are "thinking about walking away" daily.I wonder when folks will start hanging themselves from the apple trees in despair ( I do expect a few).
Does anyone else think the Goldman downgrade or MER is oddly close to the timing of the Korean firm buying it?
I wonder if GS are trying to prolong MERs pain...
...........
CBS5.com/KPIX TV
SF Bank Under Siege By People Facing Foreclosure
SF Bank Under Siege By People Facing Foreclosure - cbs5.com
AllenM, kinda like Bill Gross saying PIMCO loaned money to banks and now the bonds are below par? And now asking for a Resolution Trust Corp for home owners to bail them out and save his huge exposure to Fannie/Freddie? But he is one of the smartest guys in the room.
Great find FFDIC. That should get you a hat tip!
.......
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Columbia Bancorp (CBBO:columbia bancorp ore com
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CBBO 4.10, -0.03, -0.7%) , the holding company for Columbia River Bank, said Friday that it's shutting its mortgage banking unit. "Columbia's decision to no longer operate an in-house mortgage lending service was necessary because of the uncertainty in the mortgage markets and the risk associated with the industry," said CEO Roger Christensen. The move will lead to around 39 job losses.
Tom,
Getting close to "apple" hill run above placerville for some apple butter and pies...
I think about the insane amount of building in Sac valley and all those underwater loans of more than 200K..
no hanging for me, just a lot of apple eating and waiting...
Dallas Morning News (front page today)
Pickups' value crashing
"Equipped with typical features like the 4.7-liter V-8, automatic transmission and two-wheel drive, a Ram in average shape with 15,000 miles on it – priced at around $30,000 when new – had a trade-in value last week between $8,970 (Kelley Blue Book) and $14,862 (Edmunds.com). It's the same story for a 2007 Ford F-150 XLT SuperCrew that also sold new for around $30,000. It now has a trade-in value of between $11,935 (Kelley Blue Book) and $14,575 (Edmunds.com)."
Pickups' value crashing |
News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News
| Latest News
Wachovia bought them in 2006. What a bunch of _______.
My god these people are paid to manage money?
..........
Ot-
my bad if repost..
bay area credit union taken over
Valley Credit Union taken over - ContraCostaTimes.com
Act now!
PS. Real Estate is still a disaster, any fool can see that.
By the way, lest we forget, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan have big foreclure problems not mostly because of a housing boom, but because lousy lending practices have combined with lousy local economies. There is more than one way to skin a homeowner.
PS. Real Estate is still a disaster, any fool can see that.
I still know people who think they can "make money" by owning a house...
I kid you not....
.......
here
this oughtta help the markets
it appears that sarah palin was a member of the alaska independence party, which advocated secession from the united states of america.
sarah palin addressed the alaska independence party earlier this year wishing them well !!!
YouTube - Sarah Palin and the Alaska Independence Party. Palin addresses AIP convention
"CR, I don't think most of the problems are in just a few states. Could you substantiate that(?), because I don't live in one of those states and it is a huge problem here. I'm sure the same can be said for 95% of the other states (or more.)"
Just because some states haven't blown up yet doesn't mean the problem isn't huge. Maryland is an example of this: housing is grossly unaffordable in this state, and nearly everyone I know who bought recently bought something they cannot afford with a toxic loan. The state is littered with bad loans, house flippers, people with day jobs "investing" in housing, etc. About the only thing we didn't get was large numbers of out-of-state people investing here in places sight-unseen. No, our bursting Bubble is locally grown and will have the locals washed out into the Bay as the madness comes to an end and they actually have to pay for their absurdly overpriced house or give back the keys.
FT.com
National City offers cash to cut equity lines
“We are giving customers an opportunity to close their lines without incurring termination fees and then we give them a reward to thank them for their business,” said National City."
(Funny, Sheila didn't mention this.)
FT.com / Mergermarket - National City offers cash to cut equity lines
I agree with C&C from an earlier thread.
I'm officially clearing the calendar for this PM...get the housework done NOW.
cd,I lived on apple hill for a while in the '80's nice area.But the buildup in the sac area is unbelivable to anyone who has not seen it.I have,and still had trouble believing my eyes.
Sign of the Times: 'FDIC Insured'
"In a television advertisement for some sort of savings account at GMAC Bank, viewers hear that they can "earn more, while keeping your money safe and secure." Then, over a screen that flashes "FDIC INSURED" in big block letters, we hear this tagline: "GMAC Bank...smart, simple, safe."
When the safety and federal insurance of deposit accounts become leading features of expensive ad campaigns, you know we're in a strange place in the financial system."
Sign of the Times: 'FDIC Insured' -- Seeking Alpha
I still know people who think they can "make money" by owning a house...
More proof we are not at the elusive "bottom"
From <a href=http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/02/alaska-party-official-says-palin-was-not-a-member/">The New York Times:
"The chairwoman of an Alaskan political party that advocates a vote on the stateÂ’s secession from the union said Tuesday that she had been mistaken when she said Gov. Sarah Palin was a member of the group."
Apple Hill...nostalgia moment here...applie pie, cider and lots of cousins and sibs running around...sweet!
where were we? oh yes, was it more meltdown or another 'kick the can' prop job?
el cliffo and mock turtle,
[stifles yawn] fall back a thread and post to your hearts' content...thanks in advance
I've been patiently waiting for the bank runs to happen for months now.
Now I am left wondering if the runs will be more like riots.
nades writes:
PS. Real Estate is still a disaster, any fool can see that.
I still know people who think they can "make money" by owning a house...
I hear "Buy my book and learn how to flip and grow rich in a foreclosure market" commercials at least five times a day on the radio.
Nobody ever asks these financial "geniuses" why they're hawking books about it if they can grow rich following their own advice.
IKE headed to Gulf of Mexico by wednesday.
And crude still falls...hmmmm.
Cut loose the bottom 49. Can you blame her?
That'd be fine. The lower 49 would come out ahead. Alaska get $2.60 from the feds for every $1.00 they send in. The highest per capita rate of getting propped up by national tax payers. This is on top of Alaska getting to keep the highest % of lease fees on resource extraction than any other state.
Fiercely self-sufficient apparently == sucking on the government teat as hard as possible.
The real question that I would like to see answered is "When will banks start being honest about their balance sheets?"
I would like to see how they define "foreclosure process". I have a feeling that the banks are grossly delaying the foreclosure process because they can't afford it.
bay area credit union taken over
The credit union failures are picking up steam as well. Unfortunately, the NCUA is more interested in promoting its chairman than publicizing industry problems.
... and that ladies and gentlemen was the bounce @ or around spx 1214 I suggested last night.
Thank Glod for the PPT!
I still know people who think they can "make money" by owning a house...
I kid you not....
I plan to make money owning. In two years when my house is paid off, I will make money by not having to pay any rent to anyone, bank or landlord. Not nearly as exciting as flipping, I'll admit.
Can I haz some PPT?
Not to be back on topic but...I think the point of the article is that foreclosures are tending to be concentrated in certain areas, and the AMOUNT of the losses will also be concentrated in those areas. Frankly, a higher than average foreclosure rate isn't, in itself, problematic for financial institutions. It's the dollar amount of the loss and the subsequent value of the asset that is the problem. Just talking about "foreclosures" isn't the point. The act means nothing, it's the loss.
These losses are going to be concentrated in the states named. I don't know where you live, but...you know...prices haven't really cratered here and I keep saying that. They're probably not going to much more either in certain areas. The problem is VERY VERY localized, and is worse the further from the metro Boston area you go.
If you had given me a map in 2000 and asked me to color in areas where a housing bust would have the highest effect, I bet i would have picked exactly the localized areas that are now seeing the issues. Why no one did this is beyond me. But I guess the money was too hot and too good. Again I'll say it: we've been on the downside of the slope since 2005 and the local economy isn't that bad. Perhaps it will be where you are, but then you have other fundamental issues besides housing.
If we can't have Bank closing tonight, can we have a treat ,maybe a Squirrel Popsicle?
And she is a Pentacostal, which means her church speaks in tongues. I can't wait to see those videos. They'll make Rev. Wright look straight.
People like the idea she's a moose hunter. But wait til they see the videos of her skinning moose and rubbing the blood on her face.
Page not found
San Diego real estate 17.2% undervalued. Hah. Still can't find a shack for under a half a mil.
rate cut on Sunday evening/Monday morning.......one repo. today for "only" $2B. They are up to something that's for sure.....they (fed) are not doing these repo's with the same vigor as they were before. During the BSC "crisis" the same thing happened, drop-off in repo's and then the creation of yet another alphabet soup auction.
Speculation on my part however there is something brewing.
Ciao
MS
Ipodius,
I live in the NYC metro area. Prices are down ~ 15%. Not as bad as FL or CA, but still bad. More telling are the the inventory and sales numbers. Inventory is sky high and sales are few and far between.
Going forward, I expect a slowing economy and a huge multi-year downsizing of the NYC financial services industry to continue to force prices lower. Also, foreclosures in the areas I follow are rising rapidly, although most are on lower cost homes.
One more point, many of the recent sales are at 15% off prices after have major renovation work performed. I can't tell you how many people I know that dumped 100K into a new kitchen & master bath. Most of that money is lost.
I think Boston will suffer the same fate.
Without the PPT, the Dow Jones would be at 8000, and the S&P at 800.
F them!
A-mouse
The PPT has to work from the same budget as the guys funding repo's. Too expensive for both on the same day ?
From the Marketwatch story:
"However, the increase in prime ARMs foreclosure starts was greater than the combined increase in fixed-rate and ARM subprime loans," he added."
Amazing how they move it half the daily move in 1/10000 the daily volume.
Free market, my ass!
One more point, many of the recent sales are at 15% off prices after have major renovation work performed.
Angry, I think they are down slightly more than that from peak here...but not in the city, and certainly not in the condo market. In the last bust, that was the market that really tanked. Now it seems that the SFH market is the one to suffer. But the total percentage is misleading. It is down that much in a lot of places, not no where near that in others. it is very localized. And yes, there is a lot of inventory. But many people are just keeping them on the market and seeing what happens.
It is amazing to me the number of people that think they will get what they want if they renovate now. Not happening. It is far better to just lower your price and sell if that's what you need to do and let the new owners renovate. It will buy you NOTHING. As a point of reference a condo in a vacation market I have a place in sold recently. The original asking price was 629. The selling price was 525. But that isn't happening in the metro area.
Like I said earlier:
gather ye rosebuds while ye may
and take those profits along the way
nobody likes to get Reg T'd
but don't fall in love with Mr. Greed
Popeye | 09.05.08 - 10:41 am | #
Good call on the bounce Popeye -- when it happened this morning, I remembered "hey, didn't someone call it yesterday", but couldn't remember who (nor did I want to go looking).
"Amazing how they move it half the daily move in 1/10000 the daily volume"
A lot of shorts in the market. Much different from when SPX1500. Profit taking. I took some, so blame me...
The PPT makes it easy for those of us on vacation. No one moves and no no one gets hurt.
Meanwhile, i take naps and make money.
Somewhere a 27 year old in a tie is sweating.
Thanks
Nap time.
Tyler thanks
bonus points for calling the post bounce hi
askin - I ain't nearly that good
How does property insurance work for bank-owned properties? I assume that the bank holds a policy providing blanket coverage at market value for some period of time as long as detail is provided to the insurer within some period of time. I am thinking particularly of how insurers might be affected by Hurricane Ike, which if it follows its current track will damage many foreclosed properties. My guess is that these properties are less likely to be repaired if bank owned than if owner occupied. Such a storm would undoubtedly cause other damaged properties to be abandoned by their owners who might be underwater in the literal sense. Can anyone provide more information on the details of this coverage? Thanks!
Blackstone Group LP and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co KKR.UL are each looking to buy parts of Lehman's real estate and asset management units, sources familiar with the situation said on Friday.
Blackstone, KKR eye Lehman assets: sources
| Reuters
Another day another rumor from a person familiar with the situation who doesn't want to be named. Kind of funny how the SEC looks the other way if it makes the market go up. How many has that been this week for this one stock alone for Christ sakes. Banana republico.
The only reason that you see a large drop in FC starts in MD and MA is that they have extended the required demand (Breech Letter), Acceleration Letter from the standard 30 day timeline to in MA it is now 90 days so the customer gets an additional 60 days before a servicer can start foreclosure and in MD the demand timeline has been extended to 90 days also. In the past a standard default timeline would be that a servicer would demand 45 days past due and the they could start foreclosure at 75 days past due or so. Because of the changes in the these two states servicers can't start foreclosure on a property until the customer is at least 135 days past due or roughly 6 months past due. Also when both of the law changes came out in the late spring, the two states provided very little direction to servicers on the required notice that will need to be sent which delayed most servicers in sending demand letters in these states.
You would think that the MBA would know these issues, but they have never been very involved in understanding default servicers so the oversight isn't surprising. They are just a orgination organization and only give lip service to servicers issues.
ok
popeye forgive me but i gotta
abc news is on it but they buried the story
the alaska independance party whch advocated secession moved its convention to sarah palins town in deference to her as a prominant member
heres the link
Palin Media Avoidance Watch, Day Seven - Political Punch
PPT failed at even. Serves them right for pulling the trigger at any time other than 2:10PM.
Somewhere a 27 year old in a tie is sweating.
That got my vote for Comment of the Week.
The 8 States above the national average represent 30.3% of the population and roughly 35% of the housing stock.
Greenspan does bubbles & booms. Wife does balloons & reports RNC knows how to give a party!
Andrea (Boom Boom) Mitchell Attacked By RNC Balloons (Video)
Andrea Mitchell Attacked By RNC Balloons (VIDEO)
@Speculation on my part however there is something brewing.
Agreed.
"PPT failed at even. Serves them right for pulling the trigger at any time other than 2:10PM. "
I don't know about that .... if anything, this morning was just a nudge to get the party started ... you know, "stocks must go up!"
Nice looking house. Can I get you some soap?
Rich @ 1225:
As to Palin being Pentecostal - where do you get that information?
And not all Pentecostals are identical. That's kind of like saying that all Catholics are chauvinist pro-lifers.
"The 8 States above the national average represent 30.3% of the population and roughly 35% of the housing stock."
And how about fraction of the outstanding mortgage debt?
Where were you PPT people the other day when the market swung from an over 100pt rally into negative territory? Do you only come out when the reverse happens? perhaps someday soon, you'll join the goldbugs and the fiat nutcases...oh and sebastian who seems to be really quiet lately....
"You got your Yen in my Dollar!"
"You got my Dollar in your Yen!"
Mmmmmmmm
two great tastes
I'm making money today, please be quiet and go look at pictures of Sarah Palin.
and those nutjobs who think real estate really is different where they live...
Anyone else notice that the Yahoo default rates are now for CD's instead of Mortgages?
Pictures of Sarah Palin interest me not. However, I am interested in why people scream PPT only when the market moves in a positive fashion and not negative.
Also any money that is made in a day is taken away in a day. You may frame that quote for future reference. It's the sentiment that has us in the current situation.
Tom Stone writes:
.I am hearing from more people is sebastopol that they "have to sell" or are "thinking about walking away" daily.
Sebastopol and Sonoma (city) are still bubble markets, lots of denial. Notice more and more over one million foreclosure's on the NOT list plus the NOD has plenty.
Santa Rosa investor's are going freaking crazy buying and renting out the lower end houses, wonder when that boat will be full with either a overloaded rental market or exhausted
buyer pool.
Ipodius,
The fed & treasury have stated they want orderly markets. We have a working group on financial markets. The treasury has intervened in dollar sell-offs in prior instances. I think it is entirely possible that the fed & treasury exert pressure on the markets.
I don't believe they have any long term or lsting effects, but targeted buying in the face of a rapidly falling market - why not?
and those nutjobs who think real estate really is different where they live...
energycon, I'm stating how real estate is actually behaving where I live. you can argue about that all you want, but that's the way it is. I don't expect it to behave differently, actually, anywhere.
Its been a very good year. And not only because my wife looks better than Sarah and we have no kids to distract from my day job.
Take my money, friendo, it is on the table. Go long.
If you don't think there are a bunch of hedgies goosing the market to try to save their ass, please don't look into that fact. I prefer to do this the easy way.
They are called fundamentals. I hope you never meet them.
It's the sentiment that has us in the current situation.
It's more than sentiment. We have very real and deep rooted problems - like over-leverage and a fragile and arguably insolvent financial system.
bearly writes:
"The 8 States above the national average represent 30.3% of the population and roughly 35% of the housing stock."
And how about fraction of the outstanding mortgage debt?
Easy and type of loan is even more long tailed.
This from InfoViewer: Reset loans add to US home woes
More than half of existing option ARM loans are in California, according to data from Barclays Capital.
From San Diego link:
San Diego, which three years ago had one of the most overvalued housing markets in the country, is now the most undervalued in California, the economic and financial analysis company Global Insight reported yesterday.
I dont know if this is funny, sad, criminal, negligent, or just a sick joke....
..............
Sorry I cant help myself!
Drawing on data from National City Corp. in Cleveland, Global Insight said San Diego single-family resale housing, which had a median price of $349,300 in the second quarter, was 17.2 percent undervalued, based on household income and prices. In the second quarter of 2005, single-family housing, then with a median price of $505,900, was 39.1 percent overvalued.
I think its something like less that 10% of SD's population can afford the average house....
//end rant!!!!
...........
ipodius writes:
Pictures of Sarah Palin interest me not. However, I am interested in why people scream PPT only when the market moves in a positive fashion and not negative.
I don't buy the PPT theory either, but if economic conditions are such that the market should drop (and I think you'd agree the stock market is still overvalued), why would anyone think a fall would be caused by the PPT? If anything, the fall would be caused by the PPT allowing market forces to resume.
Personally, I think we are witnessing the onset of panic, and traders are reacting as such resulting in the volatility we're seeing. But I'm just a peon. What do I know?
Too early to call "up on the day!"?
ipodius writes:
Pictures of Sarah Palin interest me not. However, I am interested in why people scream PPT only when the market moves in a positive fashion and not negative.
I'm no expert but it might have something to do with the spontaneous cheer that went up on the trading floor an hour ago when the Dow recovered from a 150 point loss.
Get back to me when a cheer goes up as the Dow pulls back to even after a 150 point bounce.
Asia uniformly 2-2.5% down last night
Europe uniformly 2-2.5% down last night
USA up today? or just a modest
Sarah Palin is smarter than you. She wanted to make Alaska its own country. Cut loose the bottom 49. Can you blame her?
Sounds good to me.
"The 8 States above the national average represent 30.3% of the population and roughly 35% of the housing stock."
Also, those 8 states accounted for 30.3% of the GNP in 2006.
ipodius writes:@ 103pm
I am interested in why people scream PPT only when the market moves in a positive fashion and not negative.
ipodius two things suggest market manipulation.
creation of the special fed credit facilities... PDCF, TCLF, TF
and
that some of us believe the economic fundamentals didnt support dow 14k etc nor do the numbers support large up-ticks at this time.
could i be wrong about the fundamentals...i dont think so
could i be wrong about the market...absolutely yes
hiker90 writes:
"The 8 States above the national average represent 30.3% of the population and roughly 35% of the housing stock."
Also, those 8 states accounted for 30.3% of the GNP in 2006.
Source? California alone is amuch higher GDP portion than their population would indicate.
It's more than sentiment. We have very real and deep rooted problems -
Yes we do. And that was caused by the "hey I'm making money today...I know these loans/financial instruments/insert fianancial innovation here are going to blow sky high but what do I care? I'm making money TODAY".
look no further than any ass who says this to understand where the problem is.
Feels like a technical bounce to me as the S&P was rapidly approaching July lows before the turn around.
Markets don't go straight down unless it's a genuine crash. And even if you're short that's the last thing you'd want to happen.
I didn't argue anything, I just said that only nutjobs think real estate is different where they live - you self selected in this case - real estate is everywhere local and everywhere the same...but nutjobs are always different!
Sewer rat may taste like pumpkin pie..
I'm thinking this market needs to be one charming pig.
The Fightin' 1226
I Don't Dig on Swine writes:
Sewer rat may taste like pumpkin pie..
Hairless Tail Squirrel please.
I think you folks should consider lightening up on the PPT debate. It's just a conspiracy theory that fills in when there's no logical explanation for market moves. There's also a possibility that there is some truth to it, but there's never going to be any proof. So, just ease up and have some fun with it as a possibility.
Them's good eatin'!
Sewer rat may taste like pumpkin pie..
HAHAHA!
"dead as fried chicken" in my view.
mock I don't think the fundamentals called for the market to be where it was and I said that. If there were a PPT I don't think we'd be flirting with under 11k as we are now on the DOW. I'd expect a resistance point here and it doesn't surprise me in the slightest that technical trading would stop that from happening, or at least slow it down. No PPT needed.
You know, usually the simplest explanation is the best. The fundamentals and forward earnings do not warrant the market being where it is. Eventually, the market will realize and reflect that...when the bulls are led to the slaughterhouse. Again, no PPT needed.
Back when I was a kid PE stood for "Public Enemy"
I expect that to return.
Trailing...........
This the clearest recessionary signal to date. Coupled with increasing unemployment it is time for extra caution.
That is the problem with the young traders. They don't have any patience.
Buying on this news? Be my guest. My house is like one of those in the Scary Movie 2 you saw in highschool.
too late.
ipodius
i'm dont adhere to the extreme PPT theory that "its all fixed"
but i do believe that the PPT endeavors to get outta the way on the upside, bubble-icious or not...
and then the PPT, i surmise, tries to dampen and slow, pervasive drops and down turns in the market.
an understanding of what, if any effect, the PPT could have is important because attempts to dampen long term fundamental, secular market moves, results in the winding up of an economic spring...
and in the end i suspect the damage, as a result, is chronic.
ipodius
i recognize your point...you did not defend dow 14k and you did understand and speak up regarding the fundamentals a long time ago...no argument
Sarah Palin is smarter than you. She wanted to make Alaska its own country. Cut loose the bottom 49. Can you blame her?
Sounds good to me.
V.V. Putin | 09.05.08 - 1:20 pm | #
Hmmm, give them passports and expose the weakness of Georgia and Washington DC?
"ipodius writes
If you had given me a map in 2000 and asked me to color in areas where a housing bust would have the highest effect, I bet i would have picked exactly the localized areas that are now seeing the issues. Why no one did this is beyond me. But I guess the money was too hot and too good. Again I'll say it: we've been on the downside of the slope since 2005 and the local economy isn't that bad. Perhaps it will be where you are, but then you have other fundamental issues besides housing."
Couldnt have said it better myself. Circa 2005, I believed the whole US was in a pickle so I waited with anticipation for my area to get down to 2002 pricing or before.
Fast forward to Sept 2008, my area is down 5-10% from peak, and inventory is WAAAAYYYY down, YOY. In fact it will soon fall below 2007, 2006 and 2005 levels - sales are up YOY - ALT A loans are being refinanced left and right - and the unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the nation.
Im now sitting here saying WHAT THE F!!!!! Wheres my god danm bubble??? CA has 2002 prices, why does late 2004 pricing look to be my best day???
Ill happily take my 5-10% off, but god damn. If I could find that jackass who was telling me circa 2002 that my area was a bubble, I would love beat him with a crowbar til he gave me the 200+ K appreciation I missed out on!!!
As I have attempted to make clear to a number of folks on Capitol Hill, although lenders were saying that they were making the ARM's (including the option ARM's) available to enable buyers to afford the higher prices, it was the availability of those toxic mortgages which enabled prices to reach those absurb heights.
Note to self: Maybe my party should focus next time on economy instead of biography...
As I have attempted to make clear to a number of folks on Capitol Hill,
Did you send a big check along with your explanation? Perhaps it would help with the convincing.
Morgan Stanley Global Economic Forum
A Different Type of Downturn
Morgan Stanley - Global Economic Forum
burbed, that is the truth. there are always people waiting to buy, and especially now. 15% off seems like a great deal now, and it is people's natural inclination to look at the prices off the high, not prices on the balance. So a lot of places now look pretty good. And people are also looking to scoop up foreclosures and make it a real value win.
We're in a slow sideways movement here, with a bias to the downside. But that bias is probably not much more down. I expect that when the mortgage market loosens a bit, you'll see a screeching stop to declines in areas like here. You won't see appreciation, but you'll see stability.
No mock, the real question is, given forward earnings and fundamentals, where does the market belong?
I always found it kind of funny when people get squeezed out of their short position and then wonder why the price is going up.
No PPT is needed to explain sharp, violent spikes.
Note to self: Maybe my party should focus next time on economy instead of biography...
Note to you. Make sure the sell out running your party doesn't throw a pity party for speculators. It is low hanging fruit for the low hanging liberals .
<
blockquote>
I fight for Americans. I fight for you. I fight for Bill and Sue Nebe from Farmington Hills, Michigan, who lost their real estate investments in the bad housing market.
Fundamentals will return to the market when the 2 and 20 crowd, yen carry trade and the like die of credit asphyxiation...
ipodius writes:
...the real question is, given forward earnings and fundamentals, where does the market belong?
Minor grammar correction : given forward earnings Guess based upon lord knows what and fundamentals predicated on pre-credit crisis condition, where does the market belong?
....and of course there's an obvious and objective answer to that.
So, um, too early for call on a Fri bank closure?
Given FFDIC's indication last week, another Georgia bank wouldn't be surprising ... but I'll go with my favourite whipping bank: VNBC (whose been fairly steady at ~ seventy cents last couple of weeks).
I'm sorry, but the notion that the market has an objective value that can logically be derived from nothing more than "forward earnings" {of all things} and fundamental analysis is very difficult to swallow.
you will never see SP 1226 again you heathens!
Post it with the "adverse loop" tag...
U.S. Highway Fund Needs $8 Billion Bailout This Month (Update1)
By John Hughes
Sept. 5 (Bloomberg) -- A U.S. trust fund that finances highway construction needs $8 billion from Congress by the end of next week to cover a shortfall as a drop in driving shrinks fuel-tax receipts, Transportation Secretary Mary Peters said.
The federal government will have no money in the fund by month's end, and may need to cut payments to states starting in October should Congress fail to act, Peters told reporters today on a conference call.
[snip]
Haven't time to read the whole thread, but the Ike forecast keeps moving south, and is now South of Miami, heading towards the Keys. Still too far out to really say.
Hitting here hard would merely mean that a lot of stuff would get destroyed and reduce inventory, and then insurance would go up so high that few could afford to live here. Or, no insurance at any price would be available. Or, Citizens, the Fla company of last resort, would have to draw severely on the State of Florida's revenue. And the State is really really short, tho not as bad as California, and stuff really is being cut, in spite of the screams of the cuttees.
The federal government will have no money in the fund by month's end
print some up benny
Ll,
After which Ike would roll into the Gulf of Mexico...or not...but reading the forecast discussion they keep moving closer to the models on the southern track (the ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL models).
...I will make money by not having to pay any rent to anyone, bank or landlord...
I think you forgot about property tax. If you find out how to avoid that let us know.
"should Congress fail to act"
So we ask the South Koreans for it?
samsin writes:
Markets don't go straight down unless it's a genuine crash. And even if you're short that's the last thing you'd want to happen.
Wait and watch Monday...
With respect to the San Diego "undervaluation", consider the source. National City was declared by Dick Bove 6 months ago in a Bloomberg interview as having the worst management in the banking industry. I don't have a high confidence level that the economist data massagers are more competent than their masters. In fact, DeKayser, their chief economist, has been dead wrong for 2 years with every call.
Lawyerliz grumbled: "Or, Citizens, the Fla company of last resort, would have to draw severely on the State of Florida's revenue."
No problem. Just raise the existing surcharge on our auto insurance to fund it. I love to pay to insure property that I don't own.
I think you forgot about property tax. If you find out how to avoid that let us know.
don't pay property taxes, allow lien to develop, create llc to buy liens, be high bidder on your own prop.
borrow money to create llc.
dont' force paymnent on yourself by llc.
Well, at least you can rebook plans for Sunday evening. It no longer appears that anyone from the FED will be making immanent plans.
"Darkness writes: ...Alaska get $2.60 from the feds for every $1.00 they send in. The highest per capita rate of getting propped up by national tax payers. This is on top of Alaska getting to keep the highest % of lease fees on resource extraction than any other state.
Fiercely self-sufficient apparently == sucking on the government teat as hard as possible."
This is typical of Red States
PPT, yep Greenspan talks about it in his book. So at least it did exist and I expect it still does. Congressional hearings failed to get a hold of the PPTs
minutes (conveniently they don't keep any minutes or other such things).
I loaned my copy of Greenspan's book to a small town banker friend of mine. He is sweating bullets, a very nervous man......so I can't look up the quote from Greenspan's book.