Just reviewed previous comments. Let's see how long before Godwin's Law comes into play here, shall we?

heh

$5 Treeeeeeeelion!?!

Okey dokey,

Some Chinese bank now has an implicit call on my mortgage.

Russia on the other hand has been assigned all the mortgages in Georgia.

Why not just close down the government. Paulson and Fed seem to be happy just calling all the shots on the weekend.

So how much will this add to the $350K per man, woman and child debt? Boggles the mind...

Most of what the Times writes is well-known by the industry. But I did not know that Freddie changed the "past due" definition from ninety days to two years. Did other people know that?

Here is the quote:

" For years, both companies have effectively recognized losses whenever payments on a loan are 90 days past due. But, in recent months, the companies said they would wait until payments were two years late. As a result, tens of thousands of loans have not been marked down in value."

A banana republic isn't characterized only by a rotten political system, ruled by a small, wealthy, and corrupt clique usually put in power or supported by foreign interests (in the 20th century, in the case of several Central and Latin American countries, by the US), but also by huge wealth and income inequities, poor infrastructure, backwardness in many sectors of the economy, low capital spending, a reliance on foreign capital, money printing and budget deficits, and of course a weakening currency.
A banana republic is also characterized by a ruling class that curtails people's personal freedoms and is moving towards a heavy-handed military dictatorship under the excuse of fighting guerrilla (or terrorist) opposition groups or enemies. Moreover, the fact that the ruling class or the elite comes from different political parties isn't a relevant factor in classifying a country as a banana republic; what is relevant is the determination of the elite, irrespective of which party its members belong to, to shift wealth from the majority of the people (the masses) to themselves, usually through simply printing money and incurring chronic budget deficits, and frequently also through senseless warfare.

Dr. Marc Faber
Le Bananna replublio

The Times article amounts to the discovery by the-regulator-formerly-known-as-ofheo that, "there's gambling in my casino!"

Of course F&F have overstated their capital. Everyone knew that. Ofheo, however, continued to insist that the two had a nice capital surplus.

So obviously Morgan Stanley was sent in as a "Trojan Horse" auditor, and has come out saying, "you know, there is no surplus capital." Surprise!

Treasury/ofheo needed the Trojan Horse because it has to have an excuse for all those comments reassuring investors on F&F's capital. Now they can claim that there's "new information".

The real driver here is a buyer's strike by Central Bank purchasers of Agency paper. Does this now bring them back to the table? Short of a written, explicit guarantee, I doubt they'll touch the paper any more. After all, if you're the PBOC, you don't need to own more than $350b of paper that is protected by a lame-duck administration's promise that future administrations will inject capital.

Paulson needs to issue an explicit guarantee, and that will effectively double the amount of outstanding USG debt.

Stop! That Agency debt is backed by collateral, so you can't just stack it on top of the National Debt! Right?

Except to get at the collateral, you have to throw people out of their homes. A few quarters of that and Congress is liable to issue a moratorium on foreclosures. Bye-bye collateral. Don't think it will happen? Then you haven't been listening to Sheila Bair.

"Without them the housing market is toast."

I think it goes a little deeper than that. The GSE bonds became a dumping ground for foreign investors to park their dollars. Instead of buying treasuries, they seem to have been guided into buying the GSE's at a higher yield. The higher yield was supposed to be for the extra risk since they were not officially backed by the government.

So it's sort of about housing, but also supporting the dollar. Otherwise the foreign investors will start bailing out too fast. That's similar to what we saw since June with them pulling out of GSE bonds and into Treasuries.

The scam to the taxpayer is that these investors received the higher yield for the risk taking the GSE over treasuries all this time. Now, it comes time to pay for the risk. And it's not the bondholder who has to pay that enjoyed the higher yield, but the taxpayer.

So in short, I think alot of it goes back to keeping foreign investors happy so they don't start dumping their dollars and collapse our economy faster than we'd like.

"So, we borrow money from those we owe to pay back those we owe. Am I missing something?"

Perfect assessment. Just like borrowing from the credit card to make the minimum payment on it.

The Ponzi scheme in spades.

I'm not even sure the enabling legislation for the bail out authorizes Treasury to grant an explicit guarantee on existing Agency debt. I know there is a numerical ceiling on the bail-out amount ($400b?), so that rules out a promise of more than that. Agency debt is in the trillions...

So if Hank can't give an explicit guarantee, I still think the world's Central Banks will stay away from buying more Agencies. That means that Treasury would have to help roll F&F's debt, which means it will end up on the Fed's books.

Remember that we're dealing with bureaucratic buyers. Someone at the PBOC (Chinese Central Bank) made the decision to buy $350b in Agencies. That person must now be under intense pressure. At the very least, he is being told, "not a penny (yuan) more!" by the Chinese Powers That Be.

"The government will act as new management" of the two companies under such a conservatorship plan, Frank said in a Reuters interview

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shareholders, including preferred stockholders, will not fair well under a proposed U.S. Treasury takeover of the two housing finance companies, House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank told Reuters on Saturday.

Treasury plan won't help Fannie, Freddie shareholders: Frank
| Reuters

loose lips sink ships.

Since the consensus is that the market will rally on Monday, just like it always has, is there a chance that it could be the opposite? Wouldn't that be the contrarian play.

KABOOM! writes:
The question becomes, "What will this mean for the Presidential election."
KABOOM! | 09.06.08 - 7:33 pm | #

Prolly that it won't be discussed at all - unless one candidate gets so far ahead they don't even need to talk (just smile & wave)... then the other losing candidate will scream about it bloody murder... alone... in the wilderness with all the other silent falling trees.

Not exactly:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found

With all our sophistication, the conclusion to this experiment is simple - how about going back to a fair risk premium on lending based on real income and real dollars. Promoting Home ownership in any type of subsidized way is retarded and irresponsible, because now all Americans and unborn Americans are going to pay for the subsidized risk premium for the rest of our lives.

The path to hell paved with good intentions once again.

Amen to that.

"I cannot believe that the Treasury department can just guarantee $5 Trillion in debt without explicit Congressional approval."

You can bet Congress already knew this would happen when they granted the treasury their unlimited backstop. It's the perfect alibi. This way they did it, without really doing it.

This is called having a way too big government jammed up your ____.

"Or that SUVs can be transformed into great single family chicken coops if you live in an area that is undergoing a moose shortage ?"

I hear that Gazprom is diversifying into moose [Los]. Many still exist in Siberia. They will be herded and rounded up by mooseboys.

bearly writes:
I think Pauson is leaking different bailout schemes to see what the reaction would be, like a political focus group or poll...

Then let's all shout:

No common, no preferred,
Wipe'em all out undeterred!

What do the candidates have to say about the Fannie and Freddie bailout?

Expired

On what the market will do is a tricky question. I feel as if the bailout has to be partially priced into parts of the market. Those in the know have known for quite some time that it was not a question of will they get bailed out but when and how. The devil will be in the details.

I think in terms of what equity investors are likely to expect - I would look at Indymac as a guide - perhaps with an asterisk to the preferreds. The preferreds are a sticky situation. The Treasury is attempting to solve a problem here and probably doesn't want to create a new one. Many banks and insurers own these and many big brokerages have sold these things as "riskless" because of the government guarantee, so I would think that they wouldn't want to create more problems by solving this one, and the mainstream public is too stupid to know what preferred stock is and what it is entitled to to get really outraged about it. Plus issuing preferred stock has been a popular form of capital for many financial companies in the last year and that would basically undermine any attempts for future issuance by them.

Those who think this will be result in dollar weakness may be proved wrong. It really depends on if it has been "propped up" recently like everyone has said. There is also a potential for a relief rally in the dollar given the nature of the conservatorship and not complete nationalization (although it may end up being that in the end).

This was the one bailout I was willing to tolerate , as anything that has happened in the past is somewhat of a sunk cost and the ramifications of a Freddie or Fannie going under would have been huge. It does however frighten me to a degree because I feel like people are beginning to become numb to all these bailouts - and that's when I think we will start bailing out those we shouldn't.

Guess I shouldn't have loaded up on SKF at 115,

"Nope, Hank Paulson got the message that the Chinese were not going to stand for a large haircut on their fannie and freddie paper."

I don't think anybody actually cares about what Chinese think on that particular subject, you buy any securities @ your own risk.

Actually, what Chinese will do is hang the people responsible for selecting those papers. That's what they usually do.

"So how much will this add to the $350K per man, woman and child debt? Boggles the mind..."

I think at this moment it is more like 35K,

~350, don't kid like that, please

"Remember that we're dealing with bureaucratic buyers. Someone at the PBOC (Chinese Central Bank) made the decision to buy $350b in Agencies."

So pay back for currency manipulation is close, real close.

"Finally, regulators are concerned that the companies may have mischaracterized their financial health by relaxing their accounting policies on losses, according to people familiar with the review. For years, both companies have effectively recognized losses whenever payments on a loan are 90 days past due. But, in recent months, the companies said they would wait until payments were two years late. As a result, tens of thousands of loans have not been marked down in value."

Are you sure this is not an issue CR?

"I think at this moment it is more like 35K, ~350, don't kid like that, please"

35k would be nice, but is nowhere close to reality:

How much would we have to pay if we split the tab? Again, the math is
painful. With a total population of 304 million, from infants to the
elderly, the per-person payment to the federal treasury would come to
$330,000. This comes to $1.3 million per family of four — over 25 times
the average household’s income.

Source:
Richard W. Fisher
Storms on the Horizon
Remarks before the Commonwealth Club of California
San Francisco, California
May 28, 2008
Storms on the Horizon - Richard Fisher Speeches - News & Events - FRB Dallas

In August 2007 the mortgage financing system that the GSE's depended on broke. The real surprise is that it has taken more than a year for that to result in their effective nationalization. The Fed and Treasury have worked together to forestall this outcome and it really should surprise no one who has been paying attention that it would come to this.
There will be more bailouts and that is no surprise either. As CR has pointed out, commercial real estate is headed for the same kind of fall as residential suffered and many local and even regional banks have massive exposure there. Perhaps if the preferred stock of F&F is spared some banks will muddle through the hard times ahead and become profitable again. For many others there is the FDIC, which will of course need a capital infusion of its own soon. We all know where that capital will come from. Nationalization of mortgage financing is a fait accompli, nationalization of some of the banking system is coming. Asset bubbles are economy killers and need to be prevented because there is no cure.

"Outstanding public debt is 9.672 Trl

That 9 trillion is a bogus number. You have to use the total unfunded liabilities. That means, you take all the promises we have made to pay in the present and future, then subtract the revenues, and bring them to net present value.

We need to move past the denial stage to get anywhere.

Read up on total unfunded liabilities, and see the Dallas Fed link I previously posted.

"If the Chinese (and others like the Russians and the Saudis with similar interests) cut off our air the Greater Depression starts next week"

and what will that mean for them? Good times?
Just a year ago, the role of US economy was marked down by many who pointed the BRIC will keep pace.
What has happened since than is not Global Economic slow down?
If we have a depression, they will have it even worse.
Given harsh market conditions, all it will do is cause the US government to pay higher risk premiums.

"You have to use the total unfunded liabilities."

if so, please first produce calculations and than state your numbers.
Our liabilities within next 25 years are equal to our national deficit, since social security and other payments are well funded at this moment.

"if so, please first produce calculations and than state your numbers."

Storms on the Horizon - Richard Fisher Speeches - News & Events - FRB Dallas

Maybe the next hurricane- Ike?- will destroy south Florida and then the Houston area. Housing glut gone, prices and construction up. Problem solved. World saved from financial ruin. This am a million Louisianans still without power from Gustav. More work for lineman and contractors. Again employment up- Louisiana saved. If New Orleans area would have been destroyed then maybe no F/F bailout needed this weekend.

Destroy something, that is what saves us.

It is working for F/F and Bear.

I think the market is going to soar also...at least for a few weeks.

Lefty... a double bourbon... n keep em coming cause I know the vasaline is coming later

"i doubt they violated any accounting rules this time"

im not so sure

from the nyt

"Then, last week, advisers from Morgan Stanley hired by the Treasury Department to scrutinize the companies came to a troubling conclusion: Freddie Mac’s capital position was worse than initially imagined, according to people briefed on those findings. The company had made decisions that, while not necessarily in violation of accounting rules, had the effect of overstating the companies’ capital resources and financial stability.

Indeed, one person briefed on the company’s finances said Freddie Mac had made accounting decisions that pushed losses into the future and postponed a capital shortfall until the fourth quarter of this year, which would not need to be disclosed until early 2009. Fannie Mae has used similar methods, but to a lesser degree, according to other people who have been briefed."

mock turtle

Da Man,

How is now any different than March? The market will likely perceive this as a huge positive, that we're all saved, and that everyone can start buying houses again with cheap, government guaranteed GSE mortgages.

At least The Chrysler bailout along with Iacocca was done legally with Congress and tax payers did not pay out dividends to his fellow shareholders, so why are US taxpayers going to donate tax dollars for dividends that will go to China??

Realizing that the company would go out of business if it did not receive a significant amount of money to turn the company around, Iacocca approached the United States Congress in 1979 and asked for a loan guarantee. While it is sometimes said that Congress lent Chrysler the money, it, in fact, only guaranteed the loans. Most thought this was an unprecedented move, but Iacocca pointed to the government bail-outs of the airline and railroad industries, arguing that more jobs were at stake in Chrysler's possible demise. In the end, though the decision was controversial, Iacocca received the loan guarantee from the government.

big morning open won't last thru lunch (12:16) ...afternoon at best will only slow down drop (12:43) chew carefully; hope it will stabilize but doubtful with major change brewing beyond...

look up, mp told everyone to get out already

The meltdown has begun and it's unlikely they'll be able to stop it.

You could've said that years ago. Actually, you did, didn't you?

from yesterday's requests:

YouTube - The Black Crowes - The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down

lawyerliz if you have never had a bazooka you......................

"The point is the US taxpayer is on the hook for $100 trillion +. It may not be payable today, but next year, or the year after."

we do not know that. The article said , payable for all future generations, so if you ask me, it is very vogue.
The timeframe is vague.
The numbers are vague.
The way the author of article came out with those numbers is vague.

My point, anything based on above is not a good way of making a judgement and any significant claims.

I hate the size of our national debt and the fact that future generations will have to pay for it.

However, I can not accept anything that screams, speculative opinion based on unknown future.

We just simply do not know what will be the debt for all generations (as it stated in article) discounted as the present value, because we (NO HUMAN BEING) know what factors will affect in distant future.
Example: We don't know whether people will live till 150 and work till 140, there are just too many factors we don't know about.
So the meaningful number for national deficit is 32K/capita because in the near future, next 30 years we will have our social security and the rest similar expenditures covered.

TJ and the Bear...

The meltdown does not happen until after April 15, 2009.

tj- Monday will get the ball rolling.

Magnolia- 11-04 and 02-05 instability and unexpected upsets will stir things up before April 15th arrives.

DrChaos writes:
"The point is the US taxpayer is on the hook for $100 trillion +. It may not be payable today, but next year, or the year after."

====

f that...im outta here

Is this bad?
What should we do?
Is Help still on the way?
Is lipstick on a pit bull a good thing?
How many times do I have to say NO before you listen?
Oh well, another weekend another trillion.

To survive the coming crash and chaos, you need survival gear.

Houston, we have a problem. From the Nat'l Hurricane 11 pm update, check the last sentence:

SO A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW. HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

Read "The 2nd GD" two years ago; that and numerous others convinced me.

That said, the sheer level of denial and/or ignorance in the market continues to astound me. We'll see.

mp,

If you're still out there, what do you see that makes this particular instance different? Please be specific. You know I value your insight. Is Conjure shorting the phone book???

mt,

Welcome to the club. The destination's never been in doubt, only the schedule and path.

A solid reflection of this entire blog:

"THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED"

Oh, "is" they now. Them dynamical models is really the cuttin' edge technology in the big city!

LawyerLiz -

Didn't I tell you that the sun has stopped making spots for the first time in a century??

Don't be so sure about that sunrise . . .

DailyTech - Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century 

Honk if your Paulso

mp,

What if Paulson would have said he had a ping pong in his pocket?

Lockheed Ping-Pong

It was to be fired on a ballistic flight path to a target several miles away

"While not necessarily bankrupting the sovereign USA..."

Ohmigod am I so glad I no longer work for the Mortgage Bankers Association. Quitting that job was the absolute best thing I ever did.

Yes we are getting closer to the middle of the storm.... THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.

The Automatic Earth: Debt Rattle, September 6 2008: Put the load right on me

It seems every time we have a Texan (or in this case, a pretend cowboy) in office, someone has to come and clean up the mess. Cleaning up after elephants is always messy and disgusting.

mp,

Good article, but nothing I didn't already know. Doesn't answer the question as to "why now?" though.

The majority of Americans are clueless, and the Street wants to keep them that way. Lower gas prices, some flashy political speeches, guaranteed cheap mortgages... what's not to like?

"It seems every time we have a Texan (or in this case, a pretend cowboy) in office, someone has to come and clean up the mess. Cleaning up after elephants is always messy and disgusting."

Did LBJ have a trunk and eat peanuts? He was a "Texas prick" as FFDIC would call it.

Availability of Mortgage Finance

Turbulence in the financial markets has disrupted and reduced the availability and increased the cost of mortgage financing. The secondary mortgage market is still facing liquidity and pricing issues. We are taking steps to increase the availability of affordable mortgage financing. The Federal Reserve's temporary lending facility for non-banks will help in this area, as will the Federal Housing Finance Board's decision to authorize the Federal Home Loan Banks to increase purchases of agency mortgage backed securities, which could provide over $100 billion in new MBS market liquidity.

Another helpful step is the agreement reached last week among Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and OFHEO, their independent regulator, to inject more capital into the mortgage market.

Fannie and Freddie, two of the nation's housing Government Sponsored Entities or GSEs, have been playing an important, countercyclical role in supporting the secondary market for mortgage finance. The GSEs' market share has grown substantially from 46 percent of all new mortgages in the second quarter of 2007 to 76 percent in the fourth quarter. It is very important that the GSEs remain positioned to play this critical role. That is why I was pleased that the GSEs committed to raise significant capital. A stronger capital base will better enable them to support more home purchases and refinancings through their securitization activities. Additional capital not only increases the availability of mortgage financing, but also strengthens mortgage market fundamentals.

HP-887: Remarks by Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Jron Current Financial and Housing Marketsat the US Chamber of Commerce

Which reminds me of little fortune... that Palin makes me feel comfortably numb

I have a question. Who cares how cheap a mortgage is to get or how cheap the house is to purchase when the potential buyer has NO money.

The middle class in the USA has an average credit card debt of $10,000 and a negative savings rate. They are just starting to lose their jobs. They are not buying or leasing cars and they are not buying or mortgaging houses. They don't have a 20% down payment for a $100,000 home. Foreclosures and delinquencies have risen to a 29 year high.

I understand that freddie and fannie have to be bailed out but it does NOT mean that things are going to get better. How does saving these entities translate into the stabilization of the housing market? I think it merely means that we are probably at the end of the begining of this shit show. And the middle is where the real carange is going to occur.

I think we probably rally on Monday because the talking heads will tell us that this bailout is good. And that the crisis is over, same as the last 6 Sunday night announcements.

The economy is just starting to accelerate to the downside. The BRIC countries are all slowing down and their stock markets have been cut in half as a result. The S&P is trading at an absurdly high multiple. The tears are coming it is just a matter of time.

Finally if loose monetary policy and rapid asset inflation were the route to economic prosperity Argentina would be the richest country in the world by now.

FFDIC - sorry I posted that b4 u responded.

"Argentina would be the richest country in the world by now."

Wide Angle . The Empty ATM . Photo Essay: Argentina, from economic melt-down to political crisis | PBS

My guess for here is in about 2-4 years.

What happened to my negative equity thing?

The FHA didn't qualify these borrowers initially (remember, the reason the FHA lost share to subprime is that they have good procedures as far as borrower screening is concerned). For this program to have any impact, the FHA almost certainly will have to relax its lending criteria considerably. And even if a fixed rate obligation reduces the homeowner's payment stress, the presence of the negative equity certificate will lower his incentive to keep the home. The market will have to appreciate considerably for him to show any gain.

tj & the bear
MP

ill take a guess at "why right now"

they have sources within our system and learned that f and f have been playing massive derivatives games

they waited until the close of the olympics for obvious reasons

the chinese knew the end was near and issued an ultimatum

mt,

But by backstopping the GSE's we did China's bidding. Why wouldn't everyone just continue to pretend everything's peachy?

All this derivatives and hyperinflation stuff is confusing.

Let's make it more simple. In the other 90% of America, your $500,000k abode would be considered a marginal shithole. Shithole's ain't worth much, it turns out.

" The NY Times article sucks. The author clearly has no clue about FAS 157, hold-to-maturity accounting, or deferred tax assets."

Fear not, big business is sick of FASB and is trying to make it obsolete in favor of more liberal international accounting.

The drive to keep bogus accounting methods on the book continues. Read between the lines of the following article.

SEC May Let Companies Abandon U.S. Accounting Rules (Update1)
By Jesse Westbrook
Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission may let large U.S. companies switch to international accounting rules in six years, a step it says will lower compliance costs and make American firms more competitive.
SEC May Let Companies Abandon U.S. Accounting Rules (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

ren: "nichevo" literally mean "nothing". Used on it's own it means "it doesn't matter" or "never mind".

The market to watch on Monday is not the stock market. It is an afterthought.

The most important one is Agency spreads. How much will they fall? That depends on the details of the plan. I maintain the promise of capital injections by a lame-duck administration is not enough for CB's: they want an explicit guarantee, but I don't think they'll get it. Look for spreads to narrow but not collapse.

If there is an explicit guarantee, then the markets to watch are Treasuries and gold -- for obvious reasons.

Nirvana for the bulls is a spread collapse and stock market rally accompanied by no reaction from T-bond yields or gold.

The bears will be happy if a stock market rally is held in check by a gold rally and bond sell-off -- this will mean that there is, finally, no such thing as a free lunch.

Bottom-line, its too early to tell, and we don't have enough details. Plus this is the fifth time in one year that we have a weekend bail-out vigil. Its entirely possible that the euphoric effect of intervention is wearing off. Remember also that, unlike the previous four interventions (Aug '07, Jan '08, Mar '08, Jul '08), this one was telegraphed well in advance by the passage of GSE bail out legislation. It was also preceded by a vicious short-covering rally in financials from the July lows.

mp,

We're on the same page. Something tells me that we're not quite there yet, though.

"mt writes:
DrChaos writes:
"The point is the US taxpayer is on the hook for $100 trillion +. It may not be payable today, but next year, or the year after.""

I did not write it, I do not believe in discounting for the present value little know events that might shape/change our distant future tax liabilities.

Besides, the government will more likely proclaim default than be able to hook taxpayers for such huge amount,
unless the inflation in coming years will be high enough to bring 100 trl into 50-70% of GDP in the real terms.

"Why wouldn't everyone just continue to pretend everything's peachy?
tj & the bear"

I know... let the F & F obligations to fall in value into abyss and later buy them out on the cheap side. WTF Treasury is thinking ?1?

YLSP

yeah optimum position

that means any move we make puts us in a less advantageous position

in the game of chess we call that "no good moves"

which leads usually to checkmate

The wildcard has always been the boys overseas.

exactly...they got a lot to loose too

the only players who want the music to stop are the ones who have not gotten themselves inextricably enmeshed in the liar ponzi scheme

I'll take care of my Chinese Buddies so they will cut my Goldman friends into the money.

TJ,

Every intervention contains a potential catalyst for a major decline.

The psychology of dependence is fragile. The only proof that intervention works is that the market rallies. If the market doesn't rally, intervention does not work. If intervention does not work, the market falls and falls hard.

I'm not saying it will happen this time, but I am saying it can happen in any given intervention, and the odds increase with each one that occurs at lower prices than the last.

FFDIC,
Fearful? I have been fearful all my life. I trust no-one least of all the gummit. I have made a little money betting for and against the obvious.

Having said that, I like bear market bounces. I just bought a soapstone wood stove from the last one.

No need for Lefty's although he sells a lot of vasoline to Blarny Frank.

Stocked upon some good Chilean wine in 05 as a protection against import tariffs.

Like Icarus, I am putting wings on my money to flee this disheaveled pseudo 'Republic'.

Hello Zug, give me a hug.

I'm a loser baby, so why don't you kill me?